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  • SDP and the mythical 2027 coalition

    SDP and the mythical 2027 coalition

    Weeks after complaining that the All Progressives Congress (APC) had lost its way in the thicket of intraparty politics, and days after defecting to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai has invited a number of political heavyweights to join him in his apostasy. He wants former vice president Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State governor and past Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Osun and Ekiti States governors Rauf Aregbesola and Kayode Fayemi respectively, and a host of other aggrieved APC leaders as well as ex-president Muhammadu Buhari loyalists to join him in some form of coalition inspired by the SDP to dislodge President Bola Tinubu from office and unhorse the APC. If they cannot cobble a coalition of parties to do the job, but must restrict themselves to the SDP, they can at least assemble a coalition of powerful political personalities.

    Of the lot, however, only Mr Aregbesola is as impulsive as he is, and might join him in the new hunting ground. The others are too cautious and calculating to leap without seeing which way the cat jumps. Mallam el-Rufai sees himself as an intrepid forerunner. Like Mr Aregbesola, he is really without a political party after he exited the ruling party. Before he officially left the APC on Monday, he had met Mr Aregbesola and Pastor Tunde Bakare in Lagos for undisclosed reasons. One of the reasons was probably his impending defection.

    As soon as both Alhaji Atiku and Mr Obi sense the irresolvability of the crises in their parties, and mortifyingly conclude they lack the capacity or influence to change the fortune of the parties, they will jump ship. Their destination may in fact be the SDP. Unfortunately, the common denominator of the aggrieved politicians is their lack of capacity to manage party disequilibria. The opportunistic Alhaji Atiku prefers a peaceful political atmosphere to thrive. The discipline, ideology, financial resources, administrative acumen, and diplomatic bargaining he needs to midwife peace in an unstable party are tedious and thankless to him. He has tried to browbeat the quarreling leaders of the PDP, but failed. Consequently, he is now so flustered by the intransigence of his fellow party leaders that he appears on the verge of giving up. Mr Obi, on the other hand, does not have any reputation for managing a political party, indeed any huge enterprise other than trading concerns, but he continues to give the impression he can run a huge country. His attempt at restoring order and purpose in the LP, which he and his coterie hijacked from their disenchanted leaders, was so desultory that it beggars belief he was once a governor. Mr Obi is also on the verge of leaping into the void.

    Read Also: I won’t stop Rivers Assembly from performing constitutional duties – Wike

    All the big names mentioned in respect of the so-called mega coalition are individuals whose political ideals have remained either tenuous or inchoate. Mallam el-Rufai talks glibly about progressivism, but there has been nothing in his politics or his administration as a governor that boasts an iota of progressivism. As governor in Kaduna, he was to all intents and purposes a reactionary leader, so vicious that his fellow party leaders despair of his style and messages. The indigenes, particularly from Southern Kaduna or those who differed from his sectarian worldview, were constantly disquieted by his methods and insults. While Alhaji Atiku has never been ideological or faithful to an ideal, Mr Aregbesola, of course, flowers only under supervision. Left alone, both leaders will cavort among theories of society and order, and immerse themselves in all kinds of political contrivances. How would they, therefore, fare in the SDP should all three and many others like them berth in that previously inactive and for now precarious party?

    It is possible they might fare well. There was no reason for Alhaji Atiku to dump the PDP for the APC in the 2015 elections, but he did, with gusto and utmost indifference. And there is no reason for Mallam el-Rufai to dump the APC now, but politics for him is about instant gratification, about immense satisfaction derived from calling the shots and playing God. Setbacks are temporary in politics, and one who is disfavoured today can bounce back into favour and reckoning tomorrow. For the former governor, that is an unnecessary gamble. (The president they are trying to unseat today demonstrated resilience in both the 2015 and 2019 elections when he stood solid behind the APC despite being twice sidelined immediately after the elections). Of the long list of those rumoured to be heading to the SDP, there is not one of them who possesses the staying power or loyalty to ideals and ideology. If they suffer any setback, they become incandescent with rage. They may stick together in their new party if they decide on defection, but because they behave the same way and boast a restricted repertoire, it is hard to see them reinforcing one another’s strengths or harnessing their collective potentials for a common good. Proud, intolerant, impatient, and completely averse to political altruism, they may end up being torn apart by their common resentments and ambitions.

    Alhaji Atiku has sworn to stay in the PDP. Months before he defected, Mallam el-Rufai also swore to stay put in the APC. And when directly or through their allies they had interactions with the leader of the SDP, Shehu Musa Gabam, they still insisted their visits were nothing but mere social interactions, having been friends for a very long time. The deception was unconvincing, but they could not care less. Weeks later, Mallam el-Rufai jumped ship. Who can tell whether months later, if the stalemate in the PDP persists, the former vice president would not himself jump ship with the same cavalierness he has been accustomed to nearly all his political life. But before the long list of potential defectors cross the Rubicon, they will do their best to placate the feuding forces in their current parties. They will savage the dissenters, mollify the amenable, and make one desperate last effort to snatch control of their parties. Alhaji Atiku, however, stands a better chance of succeeding in reining in the cantankerous leaders in the PDP than Mr Obi in the LP. As for the remnants of the aggrieved in the APC, they are painfully aware that the party could neither be undermined nor snatched. So, they will dither until the coast is clear, when it becomes plain they would be damned if they stayed in the party or damned if they didn’t. In line with their capricious politics, they might prefer to be damned outside the party where tantalising opportunities and errant cash probably await them.

    Worsening the dilemma of the defectors is the question of what dynamics are at play in the SDP, their new special purpose vehicle. The APC was founded in February 2013, some two years before the 2015 elections. Now would probably be the best time for the mass defectors led by Mallam el-Rufai to found a new party, had they possessed the capacity and conviction to lead a political revolution anchored on principles. But no, they are flighty and impatient. Yet, the SDP, a revived party first founded in 1989 but which went somewhat comatose in the intervening years, has remained a fringe phenomenon, receiving a marginal number of elected House of Representatives members totaling two in the 10th House, compared with LP’s 35. By every yardstick, Mallam el-Rufai and his potential or co-defectors should have embraced LP. But SDP is led by a northerner, and has been wooing defectors for years. The defectors will come in droves, as the late Gen Sani Abacha’s loyalists are beginning to exploit, including Major Hamza el-Mustapha, and they will bring tons of money. But they will lack integrity, ideology (contrary to their founding platform), and cohesion.

    Do not, however, rule out the migration of the motley Atiku crowd and aggrieved Southwest politicians with an axe to grind. If speculative reports could mention former vice president Yemi Osinbajo as a potential defector, then prepare for surprises. Most of the rumoured defectors will for now denounce any mention of their names, but at the right time, the fog will lift and the shape of the new SDP will become clear. What is, however, indubitable is that politicians who emerged from the 2023 elections aggrieved will attempt either a merger, which is increasingly looking unlikely, or assemble a grand army of coalition politicians. Their sole aim, as Mallam el-Rufai himself indiscreetly announced, is to unseat President Tinubu who they insist has offended them or created hardship for the common man, irrespective of what recent economic indicators say. It is too early to surmise what the prospects of the coalition would be; but judging from the men that would rally under the SDP banner, and their rather narrow aims, it would require a miracle for the party to walk well, not to say soar. 

  • Rivers crisis: Wike thinks, speaks in hyperbole

    Rivers crisis: Wike thinks, speaks in hyperbole

    Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister Nyesom Wike is not always right on the Rivers crisis, particularly his camp’s quarrel with Governor Siminalayi Fubara. But, by a stroke of good fortune, and regardless of what many commentators say, the law has always been on his side. The Supreme Court judgement that gave the advantage to House of Assembly Speaker Martin Amaewhule and his loyal 26 lawmakers underscored Mr Wike’s patrimonialism, sending the legitimate legislature into raptures. The camp has not only been ecstatic and eloquent on the judgement, they have also been threatening and flexing. Months ago, the governor used to grandstand; but today, he is drained and sober. Like lions, the legislators sense the vulnerability of the governor and have begun to toy with the prey, locking the gates against him and embarking on indefinite adjournment.

    On Thursday, days after recognising the futility of summoning a meeting with the lawmakers, the governor abandoned the ploy and drove to the Assembly to present the budget. He was locked out, with consequences for the budget and release of statutory allocation. Talks of impeachment, or the likelihood of it, have also begun to rent the air. But both the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), which sought appointment with President Bola Tinubu on the crisis, and the more aggressive Ijaw National Congress (INC) have given hints that the region would burn should impeachment occur. Mr Wike’s response was fierce and spontaneous, unmitigated by the peculiar circumstances of the region and the crisis itself, and indifferent to whatever consequences anybody might hint. Heavens would not fall if the governor was impeached, he thundered in response to threats by some militants to bomb pipelines. On Thursday, the president counselled PANDEF to help nudge Mr Fubara towards accommodation and peace, but it is unclear whether his firm talk about presidential responsibility towards maintaining law and order was not an indirect hint at anyone who might wish to undermine the Supreme Court judgement in any form, either by militant agitation or otherwise.

    Last week, this column admonished both camps and their paymasters to approach the court victory and defeat with noblesse oblige. Neither side has given heed to the counsel. Mr Fubara began by posturing magisterially and sounding tough despite his crushing legal defeat. But after a few days of sensing the reality of his dire situation, he quickly retraced his step and began speaking less about acquainting himself with the details of the Supreme Court judgement, and even declined to use commanding tones in his interactions with the legislators. It is, however, obvious his convictions are only skin deep; but at least he appears more amenable today than he was months ago. On the other hand, the Wike camp is still euphoric and hyperbolic. They have shown little appreciation of the magnanimity their legal victory requires of them, and have continued to press their advantage recklessly, brutally and dishonourably. This column supported them throughout their legal combat with the governor, but it is unable to countenance their actions and statements since they won unequivocally. They have before them a vanquished governor, but they are beginning to show that they might be undeserving of their victory. Mr Fubara would of course have behaved worse had he won the court battles, but the mettle of a man is reflected in how he treats his quarries once he had them cornered.

    Read Also: Presidency: Tinubu not worried about 2027, focused on economy

    Mr Wike has in fact been far less gracious than the legislature. Apart from attempting to make God sorry for his camp’s victory, he has spoken disrespectfully of both the governor and the state. He clearly takes no prisoners. Yes, he stood on higher moral pedestal when the legal combat lasted, partly because the governor botched the legal contest and displayed unfathomable immaturity; but now Mr Wike seems to find the lower ground curiously enticing. No man worth his salt, no politician who knows his onions, and no leader worthy of the name should exult and speak so condescendingly like Mr Wike has done in the past few days. Though strangely nearly always right in his ratiocinations, he must not forget in the first instance that the Frankenstein he foisted on the state was entirely his doing in the name of instituting fairness in the state’s political leadership. Rather than be mortified by his mistakes, rather than see the tragedy those mistakes have cost everyone, not least his state, he appears fixated on only the court victory. His side indisputably won fair and square; but it has come at a huge cost. Should God and the courts and the people of Rivers begin feeling sorry for the now humiliated governor, Mr Wike could very well end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Even if Mr Fubara wants to follow his instincts to keep fighting a lost battle, thus sinking further in the quagmire, he can’t. He has played all his cards, including the joker, and lost disastrously. Should he engage in self-immolation and pretend to matrydom, it is still impossible for him to display any nobility in defeat. It is counterintuitive. That leaves only Mr Wike to be admonished. He holds the legislature in thralldom. That cannot be contested. He got a deserved legal victory. There is no more appeal. But he can quieten a little to ruminate on the dizzying events of the last few months. He could have lost had the courts been less professional. Instead he won, and got the local governments dissolved to boot. He may want to permute the future of the state without the menacing presence of Mr Fubara. But that would be a terrible miscalculation. In 2023, he made the incalculable mistake of backing the wrong horse for the governorship, followed by his own indiscretions and lack of capacity to judge character. He should now learn to be less forward about his political calculations and less cocksure of everything.

    If he can manage it, let the feisty Mr Wike lower the political temperature of Rivers State by sounding less intemperate and unfeeling. Though he has been described as unappeasable, let him be more subtle about mastering the state. Let him be more sensitive about the feelings of others, particularly the defeated, not to say the sometimes duplicitous leaders and elders in the state who might be secretly chafing at the turn of events. And let him nudge the legislature to sensibly and firmly treat the governor’s budget presentation professionally, and give respect to the office of the governor, even if the lawmakers privately detest Mr Fubara. And in God’s name, let Mr Wike not say or do anything that would suggest he owns the state. He does not, and cannot. But he can lead the state, help define its values, fight for it, even be prepared to die for it, and do what he woefully failed to do in 2023 – chart a clear ideological path and inspiring succession framework for Rivers. It is a thankless job, especially self-appointed, but it is the road to canonisation.

  • Obasanjo delivers another sucker punch

    Obasanjo delivers another sucker punch

    Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo’s sucker-punch book, the latest in his often one-sided and provocative books, must have caught his victims off-guard. The former president’s books are seldom about him, except when they are delivered in panegyrics, but all about his enemies, opponents, and anyone he happens to take a dislike to. Presented at his 88th birthday event, a birthday some notable personalities insisted probably took place more than four years ago in a time warp, seeing that he is actually about 92, the book excoriates a number of public personalities and leading politicians. Without those exposed personalities constituting the raison d’être of his books, Chief Obasanjo would make heavy weather of his angry and menacing memoires.

    In the book, one of the two he presented on his birthday, newspapers indicated he reserved the most potent bile for both former president Muhammadu Buhari and his man Friday, Abubakar Malami, former Justice minister and Attorney General. Of President Buhari, Chief Obasanjo writes: “The most atrocious waste, enthronement of corruption and discouragement of officials fighting corruption took place under the watch of President Buhari and the devil’s workshop, his Attorney General, Abubakar Malami…Words are cheap and what needed to be done was left undone during Buhari’s civil administration regime from 2015 to 2023, the worst civil administration regime so far in Nigerian history…Maybe those ideas and thoughts were not his; he just came to read them as  written for him.” It is a merciless and unflinching putdown. But he says still worse things about the former president.

    And of Mr Malami, whom he nicknames or puns as Buhari’s ‘devil’s workshop’, he has this to say: “It was all part of Malami’s financial shenanigans and he played many of such to his advantage. His principal concurred, condoned, turned a blind eye and a deaf ear and paid lip service to fight corruption while cohabitating comfortably with corruption in multifarious ways…I was made to understand that some officials of the EFCC were terribly disappointed, discouraged, downcast and lost the pep in doing their work of fighting corruption as a result of this government action.” These are direct and actionable allegations, but Chief Obasanjo has never let public or legal opinion deter him. The former Justice minister, however, insisted he had not read the book, and would thus need some time to study it. He even doubted that anyone, not to talk of a former president, would pen those disgraceful allegations. He obviously seems to doubt the fecundity of Chief Obasanjo.

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    In effect, neither the Buhari crowd nor the Malami people have yet prepared themselves to respond to Chief Obasanjo’s sanctimonious rage. But they will. They will give their own thoughts after painstakingly studying the book so as not to miss anything of value to the case they might want to make against the former president. It is suspected that the responders will be thorough. They will squirm at some of the allegations the former president has leveled against them, and will be seriously upset that he is so merciless and so condescending; but they will find themselves compelled to rationally and convincingly refute the allegations. That task will not be easy, especially for Mr Malami whose reputation precedes him. But for President Buhari, whom Chief Obasanjo lampoons freely  in general and circumstantial terms, he can afford to be also vague and scurrilous.

    What makes the whole exercise gut-wrenching for President Buhari and former Justice minister is that no matter what they say, Chief Obasanjo will remain unflappable and implacable. He has given his enemies a piece of his mind, and has had the joyous pleasure of saying his worse first. He will shrug off whatever anyone might say about him even before getting the chance to read the pesky little book. It is Chief Obasanjo’s custom first to damn his enemies, and sometime his friends too, and to stoically ignore his enemies’ rebuttals, no matter how damaging. Nothing affects Chief Obasanjo, whether it is an allegation or not, no matter how personal or intimate, whether it comes from an outsider or an insider and family member, including his children or wives. The former president thrives on controversies, indeed luxuriates in them, and can’t live or breathe without them, even if you find his superior airs riling to the uttermost.

    In a measured way, President Bola Tinubu’s aides have offered some tentative responses to the scud missiles fired at their boss. The president suffered nothing more than collateral damage in the book, but his aides have been impelled to respond somewhat copiously as a result of what they describe as the serial illogic of the former president and his absolutely tendentious writings. It is not clear whether they have read the book yet, but they have probably depended on newspaper excerpts and interviews and social media offerings to compose their angry refutations. They have reminded Chief Obasanjo of his lethargy during his eight years reign, and the many unfinished projects that probably prompted him to aim for tenure elongation. President Tinubu’s aides, President Buhari’s spokesmen, and Mr Malami himself will soon find out that President Obasanjo is his own chief salesman, and that he has contrived yet again to stay in the limelight by making incendiary statements and allegations. He knows from experience that should he write a tame, lifeless book, no one would pay attention: not newspapers, nor social media, nor his enemies, nor those in office whom he relentless tries to outshine or denigrate. 

  • On the trail of misguided modernisation

    On the trail of misguided modernisation

    Misguided modernization is modernization gone awry, which can be as terrible as not modernizing. To modernize is to change and improve certain categories of human practice and activities in a way that brings them at par with best developments available elsewhere. This is not the same thing as merely aping developments from the west which is properly speaking westernization. But there is a scientific universality and unifying essence to human development irrespective of place and geography which render that distinction nugatory at best. This is because the west has been at the vanguard and frontiers of human development in the last six hundred years or so. Think of the Industrial Revolution, the Copernican Revolution, the internationalization of slavery and the hegemonic ascendancy of modern capitalism and Liberal Democracy and you begin to understand why modernization often appears to be synonymous with westernization.

       Yet because of the horrors of colonization and its epochal consequences, the easiest thing to do is to slander a country that is down and out on its luck. That does not require a lot of hard thinking, or does it? The hardest part is to come up with concepts, theories, abstractions and postulations that can help us find our way out of our rather unflattering circumstances. This, admittedly, is not a job for everyone. Thinkers are special breed. Not all academics are thinkers and not all thinkers are academics. As Hegel notes, “if reality is inconceivable, then we must forge concepts that are inconceivable”. The idea of a Professor Ibn Khaldun, Professor Confucius, Professor Obafemi Awolowo, Professor Karl Marx, Professor Georg Lukacs, Professor Jean-Paul Sartre and Professor Antonio Gramsci confounds in its sheer absurdity. Yet these avatars of cerebral ruminations laid the groundwork for the transformative reappraisals of the human condition in their various societies without laying claim to any special status.

    Modernization depends on the leadership-type that has seized hold of a country at a particular point and its vision or lack of it. Whereas some projects of modernization build their case from top to bottom incorporating insights gleaned from developed countries without substantial domestication or modification, others build their case from bottom up incorporating only insights and ideas that fit their purpose and original plans.

    Read Also: The case for a Tinubu second term

    The first recalls the SAP protocols of General Ibrahim Babangida and his cohorts which eventually led to mass pauperization, de-industrialization and massive flight of capital without actually modernizing the economy or enhancing its fundamental categories whereas the other recalls the labours of creative and original Third World intellectuals such as Obafemi Awolowo, Lee Kuan Yew, Dr Mahathir Mohamad and their attempts to build an economically viable and industrialized society from scratch. Last week while some notable politicians were busy plotting how to capture power, a group of notable eggheads gathered under the auspices of the Obafemi  Awolowo Foundation to deliberate on how the phenomenon of Artificial Intelligence is having an unprecedented impact on economies, the foundation of nations and the global order in general.

      This is how it always begins and telling disparities begin to emerge within societies, nations, regions and within nations which often lead to unbridgeable and unmanageable gaps. The disruptive possibilities of the AI revolution are such that it can be described without exaggeration as only a shade short of a cosmic intervention in human affairs. This columnist has dwelt on such possibilities before at a Convocation Lecture delivered at FUNNAB five years ago (27/1/2020). Nothing will be the same again once humans create robotic humanoids capable of thinking and acting like actual beings. Unequal growth and development will pile up and proliferate. All the earlier political, economic and spiritual injustices and inequities among societies, nations and people associated with earlier technological leaps and scientific revolutions will pale into insignificance. Unlike before when they were formally colonized, this time around it is nations, people and societies stranded in the interstices of aboriginal existence that will beg to be colonized, to be incorporated into the rubric of civilized existence.  Societies and nations already crippled by a lack of sustainable modernizing imperative will find themselves treated like humanity’s poor cousins, uninvited and unwanted with their hordes of refuges screaming to be let in.                                                                  

    The crisis of misguided modernization afflicts a society in many ways, some of them direct and others opaque and oblique. But nowhere is it more obvious and impacting than in the crisis of tertiary education particularly in postcolonial nations of Africa. Here, the ideological dragnet of colonization throws a sanitary cordon on officials and officialdom making it impossible for them to think straight or to think beyond isolated bits and pieces of knowledge and information making holistic and systematized awareness and understanding of the swift currents of history unattainable. Once a society gets the education of its citizens wrong, it gets almost every other thing wrong. Ask those who escaped such as the rampart Chinese, the resurgent Singaporeans, the resolute Indians and the redoubtable Vietnamese. These nations and their people, despite being subdued and subjugated by invading conquerors at some point in their history, have refused to surrender the cultural and educational initiative to the logic of the invaders.

    The result is that once the conquerors depart, these ancient cultures are able to resume their march towards self-determination and self-actualization. Today, these nations are in the vanguard of emergent alternative visions of human emancipation and societal wellbeing forcing the hegemonic western civilization into a dramatic retreat on many fronts. The result has been a resetting and redrawing of the international order such as are witnessing in many theatres of human agency. Unfortunately, no African country as yet is showing up on the list of these agenda-setting societies. This is because they have in the main inherited the historic debilitations as well as the epistemological conundrum of their conquerors.

     Rather than attempting to leap out of the hell-holes of despair and programmed underdevelopment, they have been digging in furiously. Sometimes it is not out of a weak will or apathy but often a result of well-intentioned but clearly misaligned policies whose origins can be traced to a sense of inferiority traced to the disorienting propaganda of imperialism. This is clearly a good case of what is good for the goose not being very good or healthy for the gander. The educational and cultural needs of developed countries cannot be the same for underdeveloped and developing countries.

      A few weeks back, the Nigerian authorities announced what it thought was a major bonanza for the people of the old Western Region. This was the conversion of the iconic Yaba College of Technology to university status with the old HND scrapped and exchanged for “proper” degrees. On paper, this is supposed to be a major breakthrough. But when examined closely, it is rebranding which is actual de-branding. Whoever can imagine the American authorities waking up one day to rebrand the famous MIT as a university , or Georgia Tech and all the other world famous technological institutes in America as universities? Can the British authorities suddenly decide to rename Imperial College as Imperial University?  What about the great Zurich Polytechnic from where Albert Einstein wrote all his landmark papers, or the remarkable educational communes that litter modern France? The fact is that the excellent reputation and brand of these great institutions and schools inhere in their very name. To rename them is to obliterate their great brand.   The same goes for Yaba College of Technology.

     To be sure, a case can be made against the stigmatization and deliberate inferiorization of polytechnic education in Nigeria which has led to a great disparity in remunerations and unjust ceilings in terms of aspirations and expectations of reward. On paper, this stigmatization and inferiorization can actually be traced to the entrenched and protracted class warfare between the teeming proletariat and emergent bourgeois master-class in Britain which led to the founding of polytechnics and red brick universities to cater for mass education while they shut out the gates of the iconic universities to the rabbles and hoi polloi except the best and brightest of them. It is then left to structured discrimination and entrenched prejudices to ‘normalize’ these unwanted outliers.

      Unfortunately, this entrenched prejudice and class-based hostility was carried over to British colonial holdings in Africa and the Third World where polytechnics were deliberately stripped of status and prestige and made to feel inferior to the universities in terms of reward and remuneration and in terms of aspiration and expectations. They were supposed to produce the lower bulk of the civil service, undistinguished artisans and woebegone subalterns and coolies expected to find their way in the larger society while the elite universities were reserved for the production of the postcolonial mandarinate that will take over the running of the country from the colonial masters. It is remarkable that Lord Fredrick Lugard, the colonial progenitor of Nigeria, found the time and means to establish the University of Hong Kong during a solitary tour of duty while the University College, Ibadan had to wait for another forty years. It was obvious that decades after, Lugard still bristled from his bruising encounters with the robust and rambunctious Lagos colonial elites.

      The Nigerian authorities ought to be congratulated for restoring respect and parity to polytechnic education.  The minister of Education, Tunji Alausa  and Idris Bugaje the Executive Secretary of NBTE, deserve a pat in the back. One must not be seen making away with bundles of nails when their younger acolytes are building an edifice. However, the stick appears to have been bent too far in the other direction. Any developing country still needs its polytechnics. They are the base and hub of industrial transformation and economic modernization. Ask China, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Sixteen years ago at the Convocation Lecture of the Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, the columnist raised these issues in an attempt to restrain the federal authorities from embarking on misguided modernization by forcibly rebranding the Yaba College of Technology as a nondescript university thus robbing it of the potency of its brand                                                                        The lecture presented an alternative paradigm based on progressive developments elsewhere. The convocation lecture has been republished once in this column. This column has no intention of revisiting the issue. It was an eagle-eyed reader and former student now a professor at the University of Lagos who drew our attention to this a few days ago as he passionately pleaded with the columnist to revisit the lecture. What we have done this morning is to highlight the salient issues from the lecture.

  • Goodluck Jonathan’s confab regret

    Goodluck Jonathan’s confab regret

    Former president Goodluck Jonathan has been consistent in adumbrating reasons for the non-implementation of the 2014 National Conference report submitted in August of that year. The country was on the verge of the 2015 elections, he said, and with the defection of Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, the presidency lost control of the House of Representatives. Should he press ahead, with a possibly hostile parliament, it was unclear how he as president could drive the far-reaching reforms indicated by the report. In 2022, he gave these reasons for balking on implementing the conference report. During a condolence visit about two weeks ago to the family of Ayo Adebanjo, the late factional leader of the Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, who died at the age of 96, Dr Jonathan reiterated the reasons for not pressing ahead with the presentation of the confab report to the legislature.

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    The former president may have been consistent on the confab report controversy, but he left unanswered speculations that he convoked the national conference in the first instance because he wished to use it to wield electoral advantage over his opponents. He knew, his critics argued, that the report would be released not too far from the already scheduled national elections, and he hoped that if he started work on it, and it proved to be popular, he would be reelected to finish the good work on restructuring the country. It was a gambit, his opponents said, but one fraught with a lot of risks. In the end, though the Tambuwal defections he talked about wreaked havoc on the PDP and got in the way, the gamble did not pay off. Despite his consistent and even coherent argument on the confab report, few Nigerians think he was honest about the reasons for leaving it unimplemented.

  • Polytechnic Education: A Recipe for Visionary Leadership and Governance in Nigeria

    Polytechnic Education: A Recipe for Visionary Leadership and Governance in Nigeria

    The 19th Convocation Lecture of the Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, Tuesday, March 8th, 2010.

    Excerpts.

    But what is a polytechnic?  As the name implies, a polytechnic is not a university. But this ought not to be a crime but a mere emblem of distinctive identity. In its classical state, a polytechnic  is a non-university higher educational institution focusing on vocational education. There are three factors at play here which often account for the erosion of parity and esteem when the polytechnic community is compared to the university community.

       First, is the false notion that because polytechnic education is mainly vocational, it is merely functional and work-driven. This notion ignores the fact that in certain disciplines, a polytechnic education is more rigorous and quality driven than their university-based counterparts. This explains the preference of employers in fields such as banking, Finance, Engineering, Accounting and Technology for polytechnic graduates over their universities counterparts. In these fields of human endeavour, the polytechnic graduates often arrive “perfectly tuned” and programmed for easy and immediate absorption.

         Second is the binary divide traditionally erected between university education and polytechnic education which makes one inaccessible to the other. Although a carryover from our colonial heritage, this divide ignores the reality  of cross-breeding, cross-carpeting, cross-fertilisation and the transfer of talents and human resources between the two types of education that have existed across age and human societies.

      The third factor arises from the fact that entry-level qualifications for polytechnics tend to be lower than those for universities and the staff generally less qualified. While this is true, this stigma ignores the human capacity for self-improvement and continuous exertion. There are sandwich degree programmes and other avenues for self-realisation for those who start the relay race of education at a disadvantage. In certain circumstances, teachers with lesser qualifications, because they have more to prove, are generally more focused and more ferociously determined to impart quality education than their better qualified colleagues. Although there is usually no short cut to pedagogic distinction, it is so that under the right atmosphere, these disadvantaged students and teachers often come into their own, and it is where you end up that matters rather than where you begin from.

      The example of Albert Einstein again readily comes to mind. The German-Jewish genius was a famously lazy, sloppy and inattentive student. But this was not because he was mentally challenged but because the precocious boy had greater issues on his mind. Einstein was bored to death by the banality of his teachers and as he himself was later to put it: “Since I hated authority so much, God made me an authority”. How many potential Einstein would have been destroyed in the grinding gridlock of the Nigerian educational system?

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      In Nigeria, the stigmatization and discrimination against polytechnic education began right after independence when the first Cookie Commission of Enquiry set up a salary differential between university graduates and their polytechnic counterparts. Even worse is the fact that in universities, you cannot join the council in congregation unless you are a degree holder.

    In 2006, the Nigerian federal authorities took what at first appeared as a bold and courageous step to harmonise  and consolidate tertiary education in the country by virtually abolishing polytechnic education. Inaugurating the technical committee, Ufot Ekaette, the then Secretary to the Federal Government, noted that no country could achieve scientific and technological breakthrough when less than fifteen per cent of the populace have access to university education. According to him, the existing facilities were so oversubscribed that the entire educational system faced an apocalyptic meltdown.

    On the face of it, this seems to be a revolutionary and radically innovative development; an admirable example of visionary and proactive governance. But on closer examination, there seemed to be something sinister and radically obtuse going on. There is no evidence that the momentous conclusions were arrived at after a holistic, exhaustive and comprehensive study of the country-specific needs of tertiary education in Nigeria. Had there been a more crucial interrogation of the dynamics of technological and societal under-development in the nation, the conclusions might have been different.

      Several decades later, the country is still jogging in the jungle of misguided modernization. Once there is no organic nationalist elite bent on driving the project and process of modernity, a nation labours in vain.

  • Donald Trump: How Europe must react to the Disruptor-in-Chief

    Donald Trump: How Europe must react to the Disruptor-in-Chief

    Concluding his essay, ‘They say Zelensky wont walk alone’, last week, Palladium asserted, and  correctly too,  that after nearly half a century of close relationship with the US and dependency on the Transatlantic accord to guarantee global order and security, Europe should now begin to acknowledge  that such hopes

     have become anachronistic, all because of President Donald Trump’s shambolic politics since his second coming.

    Which, of course,  is quite a shame because in his first term in office, President Trump did so much for the Transatlantic alliance in spite of his acerbic  comments regarding  Europe’s defence spending which in many cases was as low as 2 per cent of the respective country’s GDP.

    During those 4 years, President Trump did, arguably, more to bolster Europe’s security than any US president since Ronald Reagan. It is on record, for instance,  that his administration implemented policies that significantly strengthened NATO, and US commitments in Europe.

    As reported by Luke Coffey in his article ‘Despite the Bombast, Trump Never Turned His Back on Europe’,

    of 8 November, 2024 Trump’s administration  ensured that there were more American troops stationed in Europe than when he took office. The US also increased military exercises and stationed forces further east, including in Poland.

    Under him, US defense spending for Europe, through the European Deterrence Initiative, was more than 40 percent greater than under the Obama administration. His record on Ukraine equally deserves mention. He was the first US president to provide advanced anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, where his predecessor, Barak Obama, offered only non-lethal aid. Trump also supplied air defense and anti-tank systems to Georgia within his first year in office, something the Obama administration  resisted for a whole eight years.

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    As an aside, Nigerians would recall that as against Obama’s refusal, citing rights abuses, President Trump enabled the sale to Nigeria, of the Super Tucano A-29 aircrafts which can be used for both surveillance and attack for use  against Boko Haram.

    In Europe, President Trump championed the Three Seas Initiative, led by Poland and Croatia, which aimed at enhancing infrastructure, connectivity, and trade across Central and Eastern Europe. His administration withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty, and welcomed North Macedonia and Montenegro into NATO, thus strengthening the alliance”.

    At his second coming in January, 2025, Russia had not only invaded Ukraine, it has engaged in a merciless war with Ukraine since the previous two years.

    For Trump, this would appear to have changed everything.

    So unremittingly has he supported and canvassed the Russian viewpoint, in the process obdurately pressurising Ukraine’s President Zelensky, that the suggestion has re- echoed again,  that the Russian President probably has something on Trump with which  he could be blackmailed.

    Under Donald Trump’s presidency therefore, the idea of relying on the Transatlantic accord to bring peace to Europe has become unthinkable.

    The Transatlantic accord, which has been the cornerstone of European security since World War II, is no longer a viable solution in today’s complex geopolitical landscape.

    During his first term, his rhetoric often made European leaders uneasy, but in spite of that, and as shown above, his administration  demonstrated copiously that he was committed to European security.

    However, his second term, barely a month and a half, has sparked great concern in Europe. As things stand in Europe today, EU’s largest economic powers, Germany and France, are presently weakened by economic and political crises, making them seamingly more vulnerable to external threats than hitherto. This, unfortunately, is the point at which Trump has made the US completely unreliable. Happily, however, Europe has become well aware that it can no longer rely solely on the Transatlantic accord to ensure its peace and security.

    Besides the above, the Transatlantic accord was forged in a different era, at a time when the US and Europe shared a common enemy in the Soviet Union. Today, the geopolitical landscape has dramatically changed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s complete volte face, have reshaped the  alliance. 

    Additionally,  Europe is now facing new challenges, including terrorism, migration, and economic instability, among others.

    In this new era, therefore, Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security. Her increased defence spending, and greater commitment, to her  security as demonstrated at the recent meeting in France are developments in the right direction, and therefore, welcome even though, more needs to be done.

    Europe must develop her military capabilities as well as improve its cybersecurity, and enhance its cooperation with neighboring countries.

    NATO remains a vital component of her security, but its role must evolve to address the new challenges.

    There is urgent need for increased defence spending to a minimum 5 per cent by member nation as Trump has never ceased to urge.

    NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe has created new tensions with Russia.

    Indeed, many say it is the ‘casus belli’ for the Russian – Ukraine war. Europe must find a balance between its commitment to collective defense and how to avoid Russia hiding under that to pursue its expansionist designs.

    There is also the additional challenge of the impact of US tariffs on the economies of Europe. The EU’s decision to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods has further escalated the trade war to a point Trump has been bandying about the possibility of imposing a 200 per cent tariff on goods from Europe.

    Unfortunately, you do not know exactly when the man is serious as he imposes tariffs today, postpones it for 30 days but doubles it the next day, making it of immediate effect.

    Thank God not many statesmen are wired like that.

    It is heartwarming that before Trump introduced this new global trade instability, the EU was already far into looking for new trading partners amongst countries in Asia, South America and Africa.

    It is gratifying too to know that no matter how difficult it may be initially, Europe will never permit Trump and his MAGA accomplices run roughshod over her.

    But above all, she must not give up on Ukraine. It must not let that beautiful, and mineral rich, country become one for a deal between an extravagant Deal Maker and an unreflecting Russian leader whose only wish is to run over Eastern Europe.

    For its precious minerals, President Trump will give Ukraine away without batting an eyelid.

    Even if the Russian – Ukranian war will become a 30- year war, Europe must stand ramrod behind Ukraine knowing, for a certainty, that Trump will be history in 4 years.

  • Fubara and Politics 102

    Fubara and Politics 102

    In a 31 December, 2023 article titled “Fubara and Politics 101,” this column outlined aspects of politics that Governor Fubara needed to pay attention to. These include: “One, the interest of the Governor and the state, on one hand, and those of the Governor’s presumed supporters, on the other, may be diametrically opposite. … Two, a good politician knows that genuflections and affectations of love for an incumbent office holder are superficial and usually end as the tenure of the holder ends. … Three, as in play-fighting by goats, real politicians do not normally fight with their eyes closed, do not fight to finish and rarely hurt one another fundamentally while fighting. … Four, political feuds between political associates are like elixirs.”

    With his governance style, it is not clear how much Governor Fubara has given these lessons consideration. But his standing in the eyes of the law is clear. The Supreme Court in its lead judgement of 28 February, 2025 delivered by Emmanuel Akomaye Agim, Justice, Supreme Court, remarked: “The Appellant [Governor Fubara] that has passion in violating the provisions of the Constitution that he swore to uphold with impunity, disobeying Court’s order at all will using his immunity under Section 308 of 1999 Constitution as a cover is breaking the bridge over which he himself will cross. … My Lords, democracy is anchored on the rule of law not on the rule of might.”

    Justice Agim further noted: “A government cannot be said to exist without one of the three arms that make up the government of a State under the 1999 Constitution. In this case, the Head of the Executive arm of the government has chosen to collapse the Legislature to enable him govern without the Legislature as a despot. As it is there is no government in Rivers State.”

    The first lesson in Politics 102 which Governor Fubara therefore needs to hold dearly is that, whatever his motives may be, he should subject his actions to the test of due process and the rule of law.  In this regard, the lead judgement by Jamilu Yammama Tukur, Justice, Supreme Court, held that “In consequence of the failure to abide by the extant provisions of the Electoral Act Regulating the conduct of the election to the Local Government Areas in Rivers State of 5th October 2024 the said election is hereby declared invalid pursuant to the Provision of Section 150(3) of the Electoral Act 2022.”

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    Moreover, on the presumed defection of the 27 lawmakers, the Judgement delivered by Uwani Musa Abba Aji, Justice, Supreme Court, ruled: “Similarly, the media was agog also with the charade and façade of defection from PDP to APC by the Hon. Martin Amaewhule-led members of  the Rivers State House of Assembly. However, while the media most times may deal with public opinions and comments, the court of law deals with facts, which are sacred. … In the instant case, the evidence of defection of the 27 lawmakers of Rivers State House of Assembly to APC has been left in the limbo or completely not present for this court to act upon.”

    Citing Section 96 of the 1999 Constitution which provides that “The quorum of the House of Assembly shall be one third of the members of the House,” Emmanuel Akomaye Agim, Justice, Supreme Court, noted: “4 out of 31 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly cannot by any stretch of imagination constitute required quorum for transacting a legislative business of the Rivers State House of Assembly. The conduct of the Appellant in presenting the Appropriation Bill to 4 out of 31 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly is a gross violation of Section 91 of 1999 Constitution as amended he swore to uphold when he took the oath of office and oath of allegiance of the Constitution.”

     As a result, the Court ordered as follows in the lead judgement read by Justice Agim: “(1) The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Accountant General of the Federation should forthwith stop releasing and paying to the Government of Rivers State, its organs, departments and officials any money belonging to the Rivers State until an Appropriation Law is made by Rivers State House of Assembly constituted as prescribed by the 1999 Constitution. (2) The Right Honorable Martin Chike Amaewhule and the other 26 members should forthwith resume unhindered sitting as Speaker and members respectively of the Rivers State House of Assembly. (3) The Rivers State House of Assembly should resume sitting with all elected members forthwith.”

    The second lesson in Politics 102 which Governor Fubara has, incidentally, learnt through direct experience is that political relationships are dynamic, and that old mindsets cannot be used to conduct new businesses.   This is exemplified in the Governor’s visit to the Rivers State House of Assembly on 12 March, 2025 without a clear and mutually agreed understanding of what the preliminary processes should be.

    According to the Governor, speaking in front of the locked gates of the Rivers State House of Assembly, he was at the House “to comply with the Supreme Court judgement. Before my arrival, I’ve already made several attempts by phone call to reach the Speaker and other members. I also did a letter personally which was transmitted to the Honourable Speaker for this particular invitation. But it’s unfortunate that, at the gate, you can see that the place is completely sealed and there’s no sign that anything is going to happen today. … Well, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about. Maybe, they’re working on the letter. I expect to hear from them, maybe after this hour.”

    In the letter personally signed by the Governor and dated 11 March, 2025, and published by Channels Television on 12 March, 2025, he wrote: “[We] wish to notify Mr. Speaker of our desire and intention to present the 2025 Rivers State Appropriation Bill to the Rivers State House of Assembly on Wednesday 12 March 2025 by 10:00 a.m.” It appears as if this letter and the unsettlingly short ‘notice of meeting’ rather than ‘request for meeting’ did not make allowance for due bureaucratic processing of the letter. It also seemed to have been underlain by the attitude that the Governor, rather than the Speaker, had the overriding say in the scheduling of the legislative budget presentation meeting. The Governor himself probably recognised the problem with this presumption when he said: “Maybe, they’re working on the letter.”

    Moreover, was an advance party of the Governor’s aides not expected to have been at the House of Assembly to assess the situation on ground and advise their principal appropriately? The spectacle created at the gate to the legislative complex where a helpless Governor Fubara was shut out was not sufficiently elevating, especially considering the fact that he had in the past called that same complex “my property”. The status of the legislators has been immensely enhanced since the 28 February, 2025 Supreme Court judgement. The Governor should therefore desist from any conduct that has the potential to demystify him or attract indignities to his office.

    The third lesson is that any politician who intends to go far should identify successful or influential politicians and read their lives like a book. Governor Fubara should realise that the only shortcut to experience is vicarious experience. He needs to ask himself the following questions: How have or do they handle benefactors, ingrates and political peers? How have or do they navigate obstacles? How have or do they deploy silence? And when they decide to speak, how have or do they do it to ensure that their opponents pay attention?

    To cite one example, if Governor Fubara didn’t know of President Tinubu’s political sagacity as at 18 December, 2023 when he brokered a peace deal between the feuding sides in Rivers State, at least he knows the President’s political far-sightedness now that the Supreme Court has settled the legal issues in the Rivers State Peoples Democratic Party crisis. In both the Abuja resolutions and the Supreme Court judgement, Governor Fubara has been asked to recognise the 27 pro-Wike lawmakers and re-present the state’s budget to the whole House of Assembly to repair the travesty of having questionably presented it to only 4 or 3 lawmakers loyal to him. At a meeting with a delegation of the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) at the Presidential Villa on 11 March, 2025, President Tinubu advised Governor Fubara to obey the Supreme Court judgement, and enjoined PANDEF to help him to do so.

    The fourth lesson of Politics 102 is that a politician needs to maintain a very sharp focus. The focus dictates consistency, prioritisation of interests and sacrifice. Governor Fubara has noted that a lot of the state’s resources have been wasted on the crisis. It was therefore hope-inspiring that while commissioning the Judges’ Quarters on 11 March, 2025, the Governor acknowledged, with due deference, the presence of legal luminary Sir O.C.J. Okocha, SAN, whom he had publicly demeaned in the past. However, he followed this with the crisis-perpetuating act of treating the House of Assembly members with less than due respect with regard to the ill-advised hasty attempt to visit the legislature to re-present the budget on 12 March, 2025.

    Governor Fubara needs to be advised that paying the 27 legislators their withheld salaries and entitlements does not require a meeting between them and the Governor.  There are records of the value of each legislator’s salary and the number of months for which it was withheld. As a measure of goodwill, the Governor should just direct the appropriate financial officers of the state government to pay the outstanding salaries and entitlements. He should avoid any foot-dragging that could question his sincerity regarding working towards enduring reconciliation.

    The fifth lesson is that, as William Shakespeare put it, sweet are the uses of adversity. All of the crisis in Rivers State may yet make the state a model of democratic practice. Since there seems to be a balance of forces between the Executive and the Legislature in the state, it may not be misplaced to hope for free and fair Local Government elections. If that happens, it would present the nation with a salutary model different from the cases in some states where, in their Local Government elections, election victors emerge without election figures.

    The situation has become so bad that there are widespread calls for the scrapping of the so-called State Independent Electoral Commissions charged with organising Chairmanship and Councilorship elections. Should proper Local Government elections be held in Rivers State, Governor Fubara would be the acknowledged champion of that democratic rebirth.

    In the coming days, the Governor will be receiving all sorts of advice. May the ones which will ease his troubles be sweeter to his ears.

  • Rise, rise and rise of capitalism XI

    Rise, rise and rise of capitalism XI

    We left the statesmen of Europe luxuriating in the euphoria of the success of a conference which had been called to ensure that the continent of Africa was parcelled out among interested European countries. The  dismemberment of Africa was the main reason for the Berlin conference. But more than that, to do so without letting slip, the dogs of war. Germany which was determined to find her place in the sun could not have been satisfied with the result of the conference. Even then, at least she came away with the satisfaction of not having to put her new army in the field to fight for that desirable place in the sun.

    The Napoleonic wars came to an end with the defeat of Bonaparte, the self crowned emperor of the French at Waterloo in 1815. This can now be recognised as being the last act of the French revolution which had convulsed Europe for more than twenty years. This made it possible for the industrialists in the different countries of Europe to really come into their own as the relative calm within the continent allowed them to concentrate on business. The serious business of industrialisation. The only downside was that the unity which had brought about the defeat of the French could not be maintained. The rivalry generated became increasingly militarized as each country pushed their trade agenda into other parts of the world. After all, each country needed overseas areas of interest within which to thrive and were not shy of doing whatever was necessary to stake their respective and competitive claims. Britain, with her massive claims on the markets of India, the USA and indeed all over the world was the preeminent industrial power within this period and was in the position to rule the industrial roost.

    Given the tremendous flow of riches into Britain at this time, one could be forgiven for thinking that Britons living in that period were well fed. On the contrary, the situation on ground was dire and on the verge of being desperate. In the closing years of the eighteenth century, the situation in Britain was best captured by Thomas Malthus. According to his observation, the population was growing exponentially but good availability which was growing in arithmetic progression was lagging far behind. It was only a question of time before the system descended into utter chaos if not total war.  It was made clear that this observation applied to the members of the working class. After all, the members of the upper crust has the wherewithal to cater for their own physical needs and It could have any number of children they wanted without let or hindrance. The future of humanity was therefore in the hands of the intemperate working people who were given up to all kinds of vices. Down the ages, it has become clear that the dire predictions credited to Malthus have not come to pass but they have not gone away either. There are still many people, some of them, quite influential who equate large populations with sexual and other incontinences. Recently however, enlightened views have shifted from this position. The realisation is that, managed sensibly, global resources can be stretched out to cover many more billion people than are currently accommodated on the planet at this time. The  Chinese experience on this matter deserves some exposition.

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    Worried by the demands of a population growth which mirrored Malthusian concerns, the Chinese government, in an attempt to slow down the rate of population growth imposed a policy of one child per couple. In typical Chinese fashion, this policy, in spite of several unforeseen circumstances succeeded to bring the desired halt to what was regarded as an impediment to desirable rate of population growth. Within a short period of time there was such a hefty turn around that the one child policy was not only scrapped but has been replaced with incentives for people to aspire to have more than a replacement value of 2.1 children per couple. The success of this new policy will not be seen for quite a while but this period is likely to be stretched to cover two of more generations. This example shows up the fundamental importance of population growth to societal development.

    The Indian situation provides another example of population dynamics. In the sixties, the fear was that extreme poverty had become hopelessly endemic in India and the situation was viewed by the Indian government with Malthusian specs firmly in place. The objective adopted was to slow down what was regarded as a runaway juggernaut through a vast programme of sterilisation of both men and women. Many tubes were tied in both men and women. Nobody knows how many births were prevented through  this crude exercise. What was immediately clear was the political fallout. In the first place, a state of emergency was declared by the Congress government of Indira Ghandi and it was under this pressure cooker environment that compulsory sterilisation of men and women took place. It was not a good time for the sexual health of men and women in that country and before long, the government became extremely unpopular and the programme had to be reversed. Ironically, the programme also failed and today, India is the most populous country in the world, having recently knocked China off the top spot in the global population league table. It is intriguing that today, the size of the Indian population is no longer perceived as a threat to human development because not only are there close to 1.5 billion Indians, the dehumanising poverty and hunger of the sixties have been drastically reduced and her huge population has been converted into an asset. This is what is happening all over the world. Nigeria at more than 2.1% annual growth rate is currently the fastest growing country in the world. The implication of this on our development is best left to the purveyors of demographic studies.

    It should be pointed out that demography has been identified with the initial rise of capitalism in eighteenth century Britain. For reasons which are not yet transparent, the population of Britain and indeed the rest of Europe began to rise quite dramatically from around 1750. This coincides neatly with the beginning of the Industrial revolution. Some scholars think that there is a cause and effect situation here and the jury is still out on this. Over the two or three centuries preceding this date, the rate of urbanisation increased in Britain. Although the conditions in the early cities were incredibly hostile to population increase, they were still better than what obtained in the rural areas. This being the case, a slow but steady increase in population took place so that by the time the industrial revolution kicked off, there was a large number of potential workers on ground to drive the process forward. Thereafter, both population growth and the level of production of industrial goods went forward hand in hand. There were hands enough to work in the factories and mouths enough to consume the goods being produced. It is not difficult to imagine that a new world was being created.

    Over time, the appalling conditions which were characteristic of the factory towns of Britain were gradually ameliorated. This made it possible for the  people to begin to enjoy improved standards of living. This led to a precipitous drop in the rate of infant mortality which allowed the population to increase.

    As Malthus pointed out, the availability of food was a crucial factor to longevity in Britain at the end of the eighteenth century. His fears about this was shown up graphically when less than fifty years later, successive potato crop failures forced a million Irish people to emigrate, most of them to the USA whilst another million of them starved to death. This proved that Malthus was correct in his assessment of the situation in his time. What he could not take into consideration was the imminent improvements in living conditions, healthcare, including the availability of vaccines. His concern about food was reduced drastically with the increase in the volume of global trade which made the importation of food into Britain possible. However, it was not until 1846 when the Corn laws which allowed the importation of grain into Britain were passed that food became relatively cheaply available to working class Britons. This situation soon spread to the rest of Europe except Russia thereby fuelling the rise of capitalism on that continent. All the changes occurring at that time gave a great encouragement to the increase in global population which reached the figure of one billion for the first time in human history in1830. The next billion took just ninety years to arrive. The next six billion additions arrived in the next one hundred years leading to fears once again that global population was going to outstrip global resources. But then, we have been there before. Those fears may never be translated into reality.

  • Tinubu’s promise to the youth

    Tinubu’s promise to the youth

    There is no greater wealth in a nation than its youth. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made it clear that his government is not just aware of this fact but is actively working to secure a future where Nigerian youths thrive. His actions this past week underscore his commitment to investing in young Nigerians, a population that makes up approximately 60% of the country. From inaugurating the Planning Committee for the National Youth Congress to reflecting on Nigeria’s past economic missteps, Tinubu’s vision remains clear—Nigeria’s progress is tied to the strength, intellect, and adaptability of its young people.

    On Monday, President Tinubu fulfilled a promise he made in his October 1, 2024, Independence Day address by inaugurating the committee tasked with organizing the National Youth Congress. This initiative, he stressed, is not just another political gesture but a crucial step toward ensuring that the voices of young Nigerians shape the nation’s trajectory.

    “You represent over 60% of our population”, Tinubu told the committee members. “You’re the heartbeat of our nation, and I hope you’ll take this opportunity very seriously”. His words reflect an understanding that the youth are not just the leaders of tomorrow—they are the force of today. With their energy, intellect, and adaptability, they can drive the changes needed to create a prosperous and self-reliant Nigeria.

    But Tinubu’s commitment goes beyond rhetoric. He assured the youth that his administration is open to their ideas, urging them to speak freely about their concerns and aspirations. “Look at me in the face, tell me whatever you think is wrong and the way you want things done or suggestions. We’ll try to implement all of it as long as it is for the prosperity of this country”, he declared. This is a rare and powerful invitation—one that positions young Nigerians not as passive beneficiaries of government policies but as active participants in shaping the nation’s future.

    While the President’s engagement with the youth signals his focus on the future, his remarks on Thursday, when he met with his former National Assembly colleagues from the aborted Third Republic, provided an honest reflection on Nigeria’s past. Tinubu did not shy away from acknowledging the economic missteps that have plagued the nation for decades.

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    “For 50 years, Nigeria was spending money of generations yet unborn and servicing the West Coast of our sub-region with fuel,” he lamented. “It was getting difficult to plan for our children’s future”. These words reveal a painful truth: successive administrations had failed to invest in long-term economic sustainability, instead opting for short-term fixes that jeopardized future prosperity.

    Tinubu’s decision to remove the fuel subsidy, a move that initially sparked hardship, was borne out of necessity. “When you remove oil subsidy, you’re protecting the future of generations yet unborn”, he explained. His reforms may have been difficult, but they were necessary to prevent economic collapse and build a stronger foundation for national growth. Today, those reforms are beginning to yield results—exchange rates are stabilizing, investor confidence is improving, and food prices are starting to decline.

    Despite these economic challenges, Tinubu remains optimistic about the potential of Nigerian youth. His message is clear: the future is in their hands, but it is up to them to seize the opportunity. “Mine is to help navigate and push and lift the heavy weight problems so I can clear the path for you to have a very great future”, he told the Youth Congress Planning Committee.

    This is not just talk. The President is backing up his words with actions—creating platforms for young people to contribute, implementing reforms to stabilize the economy, and encouraging youth participation in governance. He understands that empowering the youth is not just about providing jobs; it is about equipping them with the skills, opportunities, and confidence to drive innovation and national development.

    As Tinubu humorously admitted, “I like you, I can’t be youth again, maybe in the next life, I’m envious of all of you”. This statement, while lighthearted, underscores a deeper truth: Nigeria’s young population has an unparalleled advantage. They possess the energy, creativity, and resilience to shape the country’s future in ways no generation before them could.

    Tinubu’s government has set the stage, but the work is far from over. The youth must take this opportunity seriously—not just as participants in a congress, but as architects of a new Nigeria. They must engage, innovate, and hold the government accountable to its promises.

    For the first time in a long time, Nigeria has a leader who recognizes the power of its youth and is willing to listen. The question now is—will the youth rise to the occasion? If they do, Nigeria’s future is not just secure; it is bound for greatness.

    Steering Economic Recovery and Political Stability

    Besides making good of his word of assurance to the nation’s youth demography and highlighting the ruins the profligacy of past leaderships have inflicted of the future, for which reason he has decided to take the harsh path to growth, President Tinubu’s week was defined by two other key engagements—an Iftar dinner with governors and ministers, focused on economic progress and a meeting with Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) leaders addressing the political crisis in Rivers State and other issues. In both, he reinforced his commitment to economic stability and political resolution.

    At the Iftar dinner, which held in the State House, Tinubu reviewed Nigeria’s economic trajectory, acknowledging the collective effort that has begun stabilizing the country. Reflecting on the challenges faced upon assuming office, he said, “When we started, it was like fetching water from a dry well”. However, progress is evident—food prices are stabilizing, investor confidence is returning, and reforms are taking root.

    His message to governors was clear: “Continue doing what we’re doing, do more for our people.” He emphasized prudent financial management, urging leaders to “spend the money, not the people.” Reinforcing national unity, he described Nigeria as a “house with different rooms,” highlighting the need for regional harmony within a united nation.

    On Tuesday, Tinubu met with PANDEF leaders, who raised concerns about the Niger Delta, particularly the political turmoil in Rivers State. Despite his previous interventions, the crisis persists, with both sides involved in the crisis resisting reconciliation efforts.

    “I have intervened and counseled the governor. I told him again to pursue the path of peace and stoop to conquer,” Tinubu said, placing the responsibility back on PANDEF. He urged them to ensure the implementation of peace agreements and respect for the Supreme Court’s ruling.

    “This is a nation ruled by law,” he reminded them. “I should not be here as President if there was no rule of law.” While acknowledging past missteps, he assured the people of Rivers State, “They will not suffer for the democracy we all pulled together.”

    Beyond politics, Tinubu highlighted ongoing economic and infrastructure projects, urging PANDEF leaders to support regional development. He cited the coastal highway and port upgrades in Uyo and Calabar as game-changers for the region’s economy. “Send someone to see the progress. This is a huge economy with opportunities,” he encouraged.

    He also praised the Niger Delta Development Commission’s leadership and reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to education and healthcare, noting funding improvements for universities and medical colleges. “Yes, there’s an infrastructure deficit in some areas, but we will fix it,” he assured.

    Tinubu’s week, besides other highlights, as indicated earlier, also showcased his leadership style—balancing economic governance with political pragmatism. While urging governors to sustain economic recovery, he placed the responsibility for resolving the Rivers crisis on regional leaders. His message was clear: reforms must continue, laws must be upheld, and leaders must act in the best interest of their people. The next moves are now in the hands of those he has called to action.

     Tinubu’s week was a testament to his leadership, balancing governance with empathy. His engagements reflected his commitment to institutional growth, national unity, and people-centered leadership.

    On Sunday, he approved the conversion of the General Hospital, Kumo, into a Federal Medical Centre and upgraded Tai Solarin University of Education to a federal university. That same day, he condoled with the Agbaje family over the passing of their matriarch, a distinguished educator.

    Monday saw him mourning the loss of legal scholar Professor Kharisu Sufiyanu Chukkol while renaming the Federal University of Education in Kano after Yusuf Maitama Sule. On Tuesday, he appointed new leadership for NABTEB and UBEC, named principal officers for two federal institutions, and honoured the late Dubem Onyia while celebrating Justice George Oguntade’s 85th birthday.

    His role as a statesman was evident on Wednesday when he mediated in the Lagos Assembly crisis and hosted the National Assembly leadership for Iftar. By Thursday, he approved the upgrade of Maiduguri Airport to international status. On Friday, he welcomed the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria, underscoring his commitment to national unity.

    It was a week of action, reflection, and a reaffirmation of his dedication to Nigeria’s progress and the new week promises to offer more than we had the last week. From today to the end of the week, a lot will happen, just wait and see. Have a great week.