Category: Columnists

  • Syria on the brink

    Syria on the brink

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 24 years in power may be about to end, a lesson on the complex dynamics of Middle East politics, and also a lesson to Nigerian politicians sometimes needlessly and unwisely infuse their incendiary remarks and actions with religious undertones. President al-Assad is Alawite, a subset of Shi’a Islam. But Syria is largely Sunni (74 percent), while Alawism and other Shi’a Islam constitute about 13 percent of the population. The rebel forces, particularly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are largely Sunni, and are supported by Sunni majority Turkey. Mr al-Assad had been supported by Shi’a Iran and Shi’a Iraq. Iran has now withdrawn its military advisers and forces, Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and won’t commit more to the Syrian government, and the United States has prevented Iraqi Shiites from sending reinforcements to Mr al-Assad.

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    Iran has not only now lost all its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza as a result of the Hezbollah and Hamas wars, it is unable to rally to the side of a fellow Shi’a in Syria, thus almost completing the demolition of its nascent empire. Nigeria needs to advise itself of the dangers and limitations of flirting with theocracy, for in the end, what is evident everywhere in politics is power game, with religion serving nothing more than a tool. Building a secular, inclusive and restructured nation is the most reliable guarantee of stability. Syria is also a lesson to the vulnerable regimes in Iran and Russia, especially in light of the recent lightning speed with which the Syrian rebels have prosecuted a war stalemated since 2011 when the Arab Spring began. A post-Alawite Syria will be unpredictable for everyone, including the Kurds in northern Syria, Turkey itself, Iran, and the entire Middle East. The world should brace up for how impact crater would look like.   

  • It is possible!

    It is possible!

    After wrestling with powers and principalities, Tinubu’s government makes Port Harcourt Refinery hum again

    Although the resumption of crude oil production at the rehabilitated complex of the old Port Harcourt Refinery on November 26, after several unmet deadlines and a long period of rehabilitation has not led to an automatic reduction of the price of petroleum products as expected by many Nigerians, it is still significant. This is the first time that the refinery would be producing in about five years. Second, it returned to operations after about seven failed deadlines, a thing that made many Nigerians to give up on the possibility of it ever working again. Third, it has started exporting, with its first cargo of low sulfur straight run fuel oil (LSSR) to Dubai-based Gulf Transport & Trading Limited (GTT). Praise God!

    Currently operating at 70 per cent of its 60,000 barrels per day installed capacity, the refinery has been revamped and upgraded with modern equipment. It released about one million litres of refined products on November 26.

    The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Femi Soneye, said on the historic occasion: “Today marks a monumental achievement for Nigeria as the Port Harcourt Refinery officially commences crude oil processing. This groundbreaking milestone signifies a new era of energy independence and economic growth for our nation.

    “Hearty congratulations to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the NNPC Board, and the exceptional leadership of GCEO Mele Kyari for their unwavering commitment to this transformative project. Together, we are reshaping Nigeria’s energy future.”

    NNPCL appears not done with the refurbishment of the refineries as he indicated that the bigger refinery in the Eleme complex that houses the plants, with a 150,000-capacity, had yet to be completed. This, as well as the Warri and Kaduna refineries, would come on stream later.

    “We will deliver all the other projects. We are not going to give a timeline as he has directed,” the GCEO said while appreciating President Bola Tinubu for his support.

    No matter how we look at it, the resumption of operations at the refinery is a major achievement for the Bola Tinubu administration. Indeed, it is something that should have been celebrated because, if anything qualifies for being called a feat, Port Harcourt Refinery’s coming back on stream is it! Few people believed something good could ever again have come out from the ‘Nazareth’ that our local refineries have become. That was why, despite the fact that officials of the NNPCL conducted stakeholders around the facility where they took samples of the products   – petrol, diesel, and kerosene – many people still felt the story was too big to be true. This was even as some stakeholders, including marketers and the regulators also witnessed the loading of about 200 trucks at the gantry. But, can you blame them? Not really.

    For one, trust in governments has continued to dwindle over the decades. Two, NNPCL, the main celebrator of the feat, as owner of the refinery, is not particularly popular among Nigerians due to the opacity of its operations and the number of times it had deceived them in the past. Several times in the past it had told them there was fuel in abundance in its depots when there were fuel queues all over the place. I have always said if NNPCL said ”good morning”, I would have to check through the window to be sure it is not good night! It is as bad as that.

    It was the same problem of the NNPCL’s limitless capacity to amend the truth that stopped this piece from coming out last week; it had to be replaced with a hurriedly written piece that I was actually preparing for this week. Remember the news from the blues that the refinery had suddenly stopped producing crude, a few days after it resumed production? I didn’t want to be among those celebrating a fluke; so I decided to stay action on the piece. Mercifully, today, we do not need all the angels in heaven swearing that the refinery is working before we can believe. The lesson for the company is that it should review its PR strategy and learn to call a spade a spade and not to call dog monkey for Nigerians, because they can see; they can feel. Moreover, the NNPCL has to work on its secretiveness of operations and be more transparent.

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    It is instructive that both the government and NNPCL decided to take Nigerians by surprise on the November 26 resumption date, apparently to prevent saboteurs from throwing spanners in the works, rubbishing the achievement in the process. The saboteurs have been persistently figured as being behind the failed promises to make the refinery work in the last one year or so. Otherwise, nothing stopped the government from rolling out the drums in celebration. As they say, but for the fowl, the cockroach would like to dance and even shake its waist (o wu ayan ko jo ajoredi, adiye ni o je)!

    And, talking about saboteurs, Nigeria has a lot to contend with, especially in the critical sectors of our economy – energy, power, etc. They include subsidy thieves in the energy sector. These are even worse than the biblical powers and principalities. The House of Representatives took what we had thought was a courageous move to unveil those behind the humongous fuel subsidy racket early in 2012 when the government set up the Farouk Lawan Fuel Subsidy Committee. The committee looked into the subsidy regime from 2009 to 2011. It so decided because that was the period the number of companies involved in fuel importation (and by extension subsidy payments) grew exponentially. So was the amount claimed as subsidy. That committee submitted a report showing that certain companies involved in alleged fraudulent infractions to the tune of N1, 067,040,456,171.31 should return the sum to the treasury. Apart from companies, individuals and government officials said to have fraudulently enriched themselves at the public expense were to be sanctioned as appropriate, including prosecution where necessary.

    Unfortunately, that committee’s job would appear tainted by Lawan’s acceptance of $500,000 bribe from businessman Femi Otedola, Chairman of Zenon Petroleum and Gas Ltd. He was subsequently convicted in 2021 and completed his jail term only in October.

    This was followed later in the year by the Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede Presidential Committee set up on the 2011 fuel subsidy scheme by the Goodluck Jonathan administration. The committee indicted 21 oil marketers for fraudulently collecting N382 billion in 2011, in subsidy payments for fuel that was never delivered. We have not heard much about these committees or their reports again.

    Nigerians have therefore been calling for a probe of the subsidy scam ever since. This has to be revisited because millions of Nigerians cannot be suffering hardship for nothing. Those who stole subsidy funds should be made to cough them up. Of course these people could not have wished our local refineries well because that would signal an end to their ungodly honeymoon.

    What of the workers in the refinery? Apparently some, if not many of them, cannot be happy too that the refinery is now working. Nigeria has four refineries, in Warri, Kaduna and two in Port Harcourt. Unfortunately, none functioned for years until this latest development at Port Harcourt Refinery. Yet, the workers were getting paid. Not only that, their budget was increasing annually. Meaning people were probably being promoted, being sent on courses abroad, etc., for doing nothing! I won’t be surprised if some of them have not even ‘Japa’ while still collecting salaries and other emoluments. This is akin to what the Yoruba people refer to as ‘oga ta, oga o ta, owo alaaru a pe’ (the truck pusher will always get his money in full; whether the owner of the good he carries sells or not). I had thought that kind of concept belonged in the past. I don’t know how many other crude oil producers operate based on such template. BUSINESSDAY described the situation thus: “This development (return of operations at the refinery) is coming after several years of maintenance that leaves the refineries poorer than they were and their managers richer than they should have been.”

    The resumption of activities at the refinery would free Nigeria from the shackles of fuel importation and the attendant humongous foreign exchange that the country spends importing the products, thereby helping to sustain the jobs of crude oil producers in other countries at the expense of ours. It would also stop the humongous subsidy fraud.

    It is clear that the Tinubu administration must have fought with the Devil and sin, to be able to break the jinx about Port Harcourt Refinery. This was a thing many of the past governments could not do. As a matter of fact, former President Olusegun Obasanjo said he discussed the possibility of running the refineries for us with Shell Oil Development Company; they turned the offer down, citing corruption in the oil sector and government ownership, among other factors.

    After meeting the brick wall with Shell, the former President said:  ”I had virtually given up hope on the refineries when God did a miracle. Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola approached me and said they would be interested in buying two of the four refineries. They said they would buy 51 percent stake in Port Harcourt and Kaduna. I was over the moon. I said, finally, this burden would be taken off the neck of the government. They offered $761 million and paid in two installments. Unfortunately, Umaru (President Yar’Adua) cancelled the sale and returned the refineries to NNPC. Today, we are still where we were. Someone told me Tinubu said refineries would work by December (last year). I told the person the refineries would not work. This is based on the information I received from Shell when I was the president.” Thank God, Tinubu has changed the narrative.

    Nigerians may not be as excited as they should be about the return of the refinery because it has not led to reduction in fuel prices. Meaning it cannot have any direct impact on food prices or transport fares. As a matter of fact, nothing matters to them now more than the high cost of food items. This is natural. But there is hope of a better life now that the refinery is working.

    It is gratifying that what many have written off as impossibility has become possible. Rubbing it on the faces of such people, who are not men of straw in the country, and those whose lives had been dependent on fuel importation (and would therefore want the refinery never to work) could provoke suicide or vengeance on their part, with unimaginable consequences that may end up spoiling the government’s, and, by extension, our collective joy.

    We have also been assured that it is a matter of time for the other refineries too to start working. Now that we have seen NNPCL do it with Port Harcourt Refinery, maybe we can begin to have some confidence in the company. This should be strengthened by the fact that the refinery has resumed exportation of one of its products, a thing that should translate into some foreign exchange for the country. This would, ultimately, be part of the songs we would sing and the dance we would dance when the naira begins to bounce back.

  • A Rolls Royce moment

    A Rolls Royce moment

    A few weeks ago, I crawled out of my comfort zone and made a foray to the big city on the lagoon. Although I was once a Lagosian of sorts, I must confess that any trip to Lagos these days is an adventure as just about anything can happen at any stage of the journey even when you least anything out of the ordinary to happen. With the cost of fuel as it is, any journey to Lagos from Ilesa where I live in genteel retirement leaves a Lagos sized hole in my finances which even before the arrival of the no subsidy regime was tottering as it would be for most retired Nigerian professors such as I am. At the time I made that particular journey petrol was both scarce and scarily expensive. In addition, I am loath to risking my precious but definitely ageing vehicle on such a long journey and so there is the added consideration of renting a vehicle and driver for the trip. They don’t come cheap but worth the expense because the problem of navigating the length of that road between Ilesa and Ibadan in a car not my own is perhaps worthy of that added expense.

    A major consideration on traveling from Ilesa to Ibadan is the state of the road on which that journey is made. For anyone not yet familiar with the condition of that road, please rest assured that it is an experience that is not for the faint of heart. Long ago, the road was long, narrow and winding, passing through several towns and villages. As a child going on the occasional visit to Ilesa I remember crossing the what at that time was an impressive, always freshly painted bridge across River Ósun into Ìkirè, home of dòdò which in those days was modestly clad in brown leaves. Later, as an undergraduate at Ife, I travelled on that road which because of the frequency of accidents on it was something of an obstacle course, deserving of songs of praise after each successful passage. For all that the road was part of the famous or even iconic Trunk A road along which in days gone by everyone coming across the Niger from the East to Lagos had to pass.

    By the sixties, it was clear that the road was no longer fit for purpose as the many accidents on all parts of the road testified to the danger lurking beyond every bend on that road. Even as it was the only route to the eastern hinterland of the Western region, nothing was done to make the road any less dangerous. However, by the seventies it was clear that something had to be done especially when a Federal minister, no less, barely escaped with his life after an accident on the notorious Ife – Ibadan road. The new road which was built at the height of the oil boom was not just wide but was well paved and fairly straight. The road was so well built that many of the people driving on it mistook it for a race track and raced along it with a recklessness that bordered on madness. The result was that mortalities on that road continued unabated  By the turn of the century, the need to dualise the road had become compelling and it fell to the new PDP government to do the needful in this respect. To put it bluntly, they did a criminally if characteristic shoddy job and built a road deserving of shame but anyone expecting those hard nosed politicians to show any remorse waited in vain. Today, that road all the way to Ilesa from Ibadan is a mass of pot holes which have rendered most portions of the road an implacable obstacle course. The current APC regime is pretending that there is nothing wrong with the road and is trying mostly in vain to make the road passable by patching large portions of the road. This effort is tantamount to covering a mass of ulcers with strips of plaster in the vain hope of finding a lasting cure. Travellers on the road, in an attempt to conjure a smooth journey out of the mess have taken to driving against traffic on many parts of the road thereby putting everybody in considerable danger virtually every step of the way. Coming to Lagos from Ilesa is definitely not for the faint of heart and the situation is not about to change for a long while.

    The journey that brought me to Lagos could not be avoided and there was nothing else I could do but grit my teeth and I took to the road with considerable fear and trepidation as I do any time I have to venture forth on that road. The driver played his part admirably by driving less recklessly than usual but it was with a palpable sense of relief that we entered Lagos, just as the gloom of an early evening was descending on the city. We went about the business that brought us to Lagos but it was already inky dark in a city with few lights by the time we started heading towards our sleeping quarters. As we were turning to return to the mainland, the driver, his eyes peeled to take in any possibility of buying fuel saw the miracle of a petrol station dispensing fuel and promptly seized the heaven sent opportunity to buy some petrol but not enough to fill his tank, as that was simply beyond our combined financial capacity to do. We joined the queue in front of us and painfully inched towards one of the two or three pumps from which we could buy fuel. We had been engaged in this boring activity for a few minutes when out of the gloom surrounding the station, a huge form loomed out and dominated the scene completely. My first thought was that it was a truck but a second look revealed the distinctive grille and the figure of the spirit of ecstasy sitting proudly on top of that grille. There was no doubt about it, improbable as it was, a Rolls Royce had joined the queue. The situation was as incongruous as sighting a large ocean going ship on the sand dunes of the Sahara. From the moment I set eyes on that spectacular vehicle I knew without a shadow of doubt that what was before me was not just a car, it was also the subject of an article. All that remained to breathe life into that article was the opportunity to get to grips with writing it and today, several weeks later, I have somehow contrived to create that opportunity within my mind.

    There may not be a better time to write about a Rolls Royce than now as the newly unveiled Rolls Royce Phantom  Gold finger SUV has been in the news lately. This one of edition from the Rolls Royce stable offers the ultimate in style, power and performance. It is a tribute to Gold finger the James Bond film released in 1964 with the original James Bond, the legendary Sean Connery in the role of 007. With this background, the designers simply went mad on the gold motif as the car is reported to have wired into its unique frame various forms of pure gold valued at a cool half a million dollars US. I leave the reader to do the calculation to convert this sum into Naira at the current rate of exchange as the current rate would have changed by the time this article is printed. By my inexpert calculation, I am sure that given the sum of money to buy that car, an honest and capable engineering firm would be quite capable of building a well paved road from Ibadan to the front of my house in Ilesa! Maybe, I have exaggerated a little bit but I insist that my calculation may not be much outside the limits of error. At least that is my story and I am sticking to it.

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    My first thought when I saw that iconic vehicle was to wonder why it had arrived amongst us. I could not imagine that a Rolls Royce would  mingle with humble everyday cars on a petrol queue on an uneventful Saturday night in Lagos. I eventually convinced myself that being a car, a Rolls also had to have petrol in its tank if it was to act the part of a car. My next question was how much petrol this monster must consume in order to even get back home not to talk of going all the way to Ilesa as I was going to do in a few hours. This thought was quickly followed by how much the petrol would cost. With petrol retailing at just over a thousand Naira per litre, I thought that the cavernous belly of that beast would not be satisfied with less than a few hundred thousand Naira worth of the volatile stuff. I then concluded that that car for all its beauty and elegance was clearly out of place in a country in which many million people were going to bed with an empty belly on the night that the Rolls was eating up fuel enough in value to feed a thousand hungry souls and send them to bed satiated.

    The story of Rolls Royce is one of striving for mechanical engineering perfection but having to settle for excellence as close to perfection as to make no observable difference. The production of every Rolls Royce rolling off the factory floor is a lesson for the rulers of Nigeria and more than that a rebuke to them in their slap dash attempt at building a country for them to be proud of. This in all ways deepens the incongruity of an authentic Rolls Royce rolling down one of the broken roads on which Nigerians are forced to navigate through their country.

    The Rolls Royce is certainly not the product of some spirits or a band of extra-terrestrial aliens banding together for the stated purpose of creating an iconic car. On the contrary, it is the product of human ingenuity and endeavour, worthy of emulation by every member of our species. It is the brain child of Sir Henry Rolls and Sir Charles Royce. Both of them were engineers with a passion for cars. They met in Manchester in 1904 with Rolls promising to sell every car that Royce could produce after driving his latest car. He was as good as his word and one of the great partnerships the world has ever seen was born, forming Rolls Royce which has become a byword for mechanical perfection. Over the last one hundred and twenty years, the producers of Rolls Royce cars and aircraft engines have not compromised on that principle. This is why all over the world Rolls Royce has an unblemished and unassailable reputation for excellence which does not come cheap as whichever way you look at it, excellence carries a high price tag. It is reserved for men and women of means some of who find the Rolls Royce as a smoke screen for their maleficence so that, not everyone who owns a Rolls is a lover of excellence but that is another matter.

    Under our present circumstances a Nigerian at the wheels of a Rolls Royce is a parody of a genuine person, a masquerade that has been expelled from the underworld. This is because there a disconnect between the spirit of their iconic vehicle and the realities on ground in their country and emphasises the inequality within the country. Whilst one individual corners the wealth that will make life meaningful for close to or even more than a million of their compatriots, it is clear that the system that makes that possible is irretrievably broken. It is no longer fit for purpose and is not likely to be repaired any time soon by anything remotely superior. As I sat in our much more humble car, contemplating the uncertain future of our country, we took on board enough petrol to take us back to Ilesa with a little more to spare. My thoughts were soon switched back to the journey awaiting us on that broken stretch of road between Ibadan and Ilesa. Those thoughts did not make for sound sleep especially as the picture of the majestic Rolls gliding through traffic continued to slide in and out of my residual consciousness throughout the night.

  • Aregbesola attempts political redefinition

    Aregbesola attempts political redefinition

    Former Osun State governor and Interior minister, Rauf Aregbesola, has managed to retain some public attention as he continues to project his unique brand of politics in which he is accountable only to himself. His Oranmiyan political group has become more active than before, and he remains its lodestar. A man of slight build but immensely opinionated and charismatic, he is unapologetic about his brand of politics and takes his falling out with his mentor, President Bola Tinubu, with great poise. Video clips of his recent political junkets around some Osun cities, including Ejigbo, Osogbo, and Iwo, among others, have suffused the social media. They show him being serenaded by feisty groups of dancing supporters almost eerily casting him in the mould of Western Nigeria’s political icon, the late Adegoke Adelabu, alias Penkelemesi. That parallel may not have crossed his mind, but in some of the videos, he had, like Penkelemesi, sung and danced with his supporters as they whip themselves into frenzy.

    Mr Aregbesola served two terms as Lagos State Works commissioner, two terms as Osun State governor, and two terms as Interior minister of the Federal Republic. Longevity in public office, he has proved over and over again by his political boisterousness and unguarded utterances, seldom makes politicians humble or wiser. Instead, it makes them messianic. The mobilisation videos psyche his supporters to prepare to retake lost grounds in Osun, probably ahead of the next governorship poll. Of course, Mr Aregbesola does not have presidential ambition. How could he? When his second term as governor was about to end, he had attempted to foist a successor on the state whom he obviously felt would both do the job of governorship well and be accountable to him. His effort was, however, frustrated. To accentuate this failure, he was made to support the party’s chosen successor, Gboyega Oyetola, a bitter pill he was disinclined to swallow.

    The former Osun governor does not believe he lacks political and ideational depth. But he actually does, whether he agrees or not. What he has in abundance, and which could make up for his deficiencies, is his immense talent for grassroots mobilisation, which dovetails into bucolic cockiness that seems to impress the Osun rabble. For a man who loves to hear himself speak as well as declaim against the ideological vacuousness of his opponents, especially being himself a tenuous ideologue of the Cuban socialist genre, he seems capable of offering brutal and effective leadership in a state and at a time no one else, not even the dancing mimic at the state’s Government House, has stepped up to give. He has not indicated whether his mobilisation is to reclaim the APC, especially considering that his group has always insisted it is the authentic APC, or to set up a new party, or to transmute into a bargaining chip in the next election as he indeed did in the last election. He will, it appears, take one step at a time. Armed with this wisdom, he and his men have become very prolific in composing partisan dithyrambs to lift up their spirits and conversely dampen the enthusiasm of the leaderless, if not also rudderless, APC in the state.

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    But the likelihood of returning to, or regaining, or repossessing the APC is very slim for Oranmiyan. The chances are in fact next to zero. Mr Aregbesola may be an ideologue suffering from messianic complex, but he can be so naïve to believe he still has a role or a place in the APC, whether he thinks he is the authentic APC or not. He burnt his bridges when he joined a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) coalition to rob Mr Oyetola of second term; and when he displayed aggressive iconoclasm by denouncing then candidate Tinubu’s presidential ambition in terms that made many but his diehard supporters wince, the rebellion was complete. It requires boyish optimism to think that he would be allowed to seize a chapter of a party led by political leaders he had turned into archenemies. They won’t let him, and there is little he can do about it. He tried valiantly to reclaim Alimosho local government in Lagos State where he cut his political teeth and flowered, but he was checkmated. Reclaiming Osun APC will be a bridge too far, regardless of how courageous, iconoclastic, and charismatic he thinks he is. It will have nothing to do with whether anyone likes him or not; it is indeed a spectacular matter of how tragically he had let his impatience and characteristic triviality damage his brand.

    His political leaders always thought him a special breed and politician, partly because of his seeming and enthusiastic commitment to his mentors and the party, but he later demonstrated that his loyalties were at bottom flaky and conditional. Making the same mistake Nigeria made by denying MKO Abiola the presidency in 1993 at the cost of six agonising and bloody years, Mr Aregbesola could also not abide the reelection of Mr Oyetola for a few years in order to keep his enviable place in the party and sustain the indescribable awe in which his mentors and leaders held him. It was a small price to pay; but typical of his excesses and supercilious disregard for others, he launched heedlessly into the political abyss. How he does not see his present predicament as a correlate of his unfathomable inadequacies is hard to understand. One guess can be safely ventured: Mr Aregbesola is already locked in a vicious orbit of perfidy, and there is no amount of charismatic posturing or musical improvisations that will bring him out of it. Alas, he now wallows in infamy; but it is apparently a fate far better than the public ridicule he has continued to relive.

  • Netanyahu, Trump and Palestine

    Netanyahu, Trump and Palestine

    Last week, President-elect Donald Trump warned Hamas there would be “all hell to pay” if the nearly 100 hostages left in captivity in Gaza were not released before he is sworn in on January 20, 2025. In addition, even though he did not mention Hamas directly, he also threatened that “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America.” They may only just be realising it, but Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran contributed in a way to the election of Mr Trump. Americans who voted him thought he was far more capable of restoring peace in the Middle East, and Palestinian-Americans also suggested that he would stop the ‘genocide’ in Gaza much quicker than the ‘dithering’ President Joe Biden.

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    While it is not clear each would get its wish in the way they expect it, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has by his arrogant and entitled approach to the war in Gaza and Lebanon continued to show his lack of grace and empathy as well as his entitled overview of Israel’s expectations in the regional crisis. Israel has undoubtedly undertaken a most accomplished tactical campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah, but the collateral damage has been enormous. Now, as the advent of a second Trump presidency nears, Iran and its proxies will be hard put to know how to respond. The incoming American president is more pro-Israel than Mr Biden, and resentful of Iran and its proxies. He is the answer to the Israeli prime minister’s prayers. Worse for Iran, the amoral Mr Trump is not timid of projecting American power in the region, making him a darling of the region’s conservative rulers and monarchies. It remains to be seen, however, whether the grossly miscalculating Hamas will heed Mr Trump’s warning. Iran and Hezbollah have meanwhile remained sensibly muted.

  • New Dimensions in the Long Revolution: Coded battles for economic and political modernisation of Nigeria

    New Dimensions in the Long Revolution: Coded battles for economic and political modernisation of Nigeria

    Honorable members of the board, it is a pleasure to welcome you to this inaugural meeting of The Nation Journalism Foundation. We live in very interesting times when events happen at a furious and breakneck speed, often inducing generalized apprehension and an eerie sense of disorientation among the populace and the ruling classes themselves. It has been said that journalism is history in a hurry. But we live in a world where unfolding events themselves in their wild improbability and sheer impossibility make history itself feels like fiction in a hurry. In such circumstances, history, however outlandish and improbable it appears, remains the infallible guide and guardrails.

    It seems like yesterday, but it is coming to almost twenty years ago when this writer delivered an inaugural address on May, 6th, 2006 at the launch of Sahara Reporters at the Empire State Building in New York. The address was titled, The Blogger As Nemesis. In our detailed analysis, we drew attention to the emergence of blogging as a profession in Nigeria, a development which we thought would put paid to the dominance of official news and information and the complicity and collusion of the mainstream media, sections of which had played a heroic role in the termination of military rule, with official lies and mendacity.

      Almost twenty years after, we can look back with the benefit of hindsight and through the prism of our current perplexities and perturbation as a nation to that particular period of our national life. It was coming to the tail end of the Obasanjo post-military dispensation. The euphoria about seeing off the military to the barracks was beginning to wear off. New national contradictions had made their way to the centre stage. In fairness to the Owu-born general, he had run a fairly competent if not visionary economy. Obasanjo’s project of formal demilitarization was also brilliantly executed with the support of old military acolytes like General Theophilus Danjuma.

    Obasanjo

    It was in the next phase of deepening the democratic process that Obasanjo came a sad cropper. In fairness to the general, you cannot give what you don’t have. The general was particularly ill-equipped for this task. He had already stoked the fire of future instability through the perplexed levity with which he handled the sharia challenge to his suzerainty and his heavy-handed devastation of Odi and Zaki Biam communities. Despite setting up the EFCC as a proactive corruption-fighting organization, the issue of the third term gambit, and the outlandish bribery that went with this, set the tone for the political and economic malfeasance that has dogged the Fourth Republic. After that, Obasanjo was a spent force waiting to unleash the final damage to the country in the form of a succession programme that lacked both integrity and fairness. The remaining time also afforded him the opportunity to complete the electoral brutalization of his own people.  

    The address at the Empire State Building at the launch of Sahara Reporters presages and projects the rise of the impish and intrepid former Student Union leader to the portals of global superstardom in the crucible of disruptive communication and instant news dissemination. At that point in time, Sowore was not a trained journalist. Neither was he known to have taken any internship in any newspaper house. And it was not as if he was a lone moral exemplar in a dark void. He was merely cuing in, shrewdly and probably intuitively, to the shattering of the old canons of journalism by the advent of disruptive developments such as the rise of the internet, the abolition of the old notions of time and space by globalization, the irruptions of new modes of mass communication which bypass the ancient fossilized newsroom and its archaic and decaying typesetters as well as the arrival of the new phenomenon known as Citizens’ Journalism.

    It is as rowdy and disrespecting of the old order and its institutional restraints as anybody can imagine. Anybody with an access to a computer and an upmarket phone is a prospective journalist. And anybody with a modern lap top is a publisher in waiting. For a postcolonial society which had just managed to throw off the yoke of military tyranny in the course of a long transition to modernity, it has been quite a journey from the epoch of Public Letter-writers who served as the solitary channel for communicating private grievances to the colonial authority to the age of bloggers who can call out anybody on anything.

    That bright and clear New York morning, the Empire State Building where the launch of Sahara Reporters took place was sparsely populated. Although fairly well-known as a student union leader, particularly famous for wrestling the late Admiral Joseph Okhai Akhigbe to the ground over a dispute about examination time table while the latter moonlighted as a Law student at the University of Lagos, he was yet to enter proper national consciousness at that point in time. The place was filled with Sowore acolytes and a few die-hard admirers. Yours sincerely was in the habit of infiltrating Sowore into complacent and complaisant ancient Yoruba circles in seedy dimly lit drinking joints of Brooklyn and Queens in New York for dueling matches over political developments back in Nigeria which were as rowdy as they were filled with friendly imprecations and joyous expletives.

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    Taking one to the airport later that year, Sowore noted cryptically that the Yoruba were withdrawing their intellectuals and that something was cooking. What was cooking was an inch by inch Normandy Beach-like operation to retrieve the region from General Obasanjo’s electoral blunderbuss. It ended four years later as Rauf Aregbesola triumphantly reclaimed his stolen mandate. Meanwhile in the intervening eighteen years, Sowore had transformed himself from a democratic street fighter, a sophomore samurai, an equal opportunity protester to the baron of disruptive communication, a master of insurrectionary journalism and globally lionized star of the post-military protest in Nigeria whose exploits and derring-do at the behest of his nation are permanently etched in the memories of his contemporaries.

    One may of course disagree with Sowore’s method and tactics, his rather ill-conceived notion of revolution as Espresso Coffee. But it is a measure of the young man’s amazing transformation and emergent national stature that a few days back, he successfully called out the nation’s premier crime bursting agency over its decision to conceal the identity of the nation’s biggest ever would be landlord. To be sure in doing this, the EFCC might be acting under some furtive gambit of secret negotiation to achieve maximum result but in a nation tired of official collusion and complicity with humongous crimes against the commonwealth, it was no surprise that it blew in its face. This is how far we have come in the battle against state criminality and we may have the advent of citizens’ journalism and disruptive countervailing disclosure of information to thank for this development.

    Going forward, it should now be clear and straightforward that we can no longer rely on fighting state criminality and economic heists committed against the nation by relying on old methods and methodology. Because Nigeria is struggling to be free of the hegemonic shackles of an entrenched plundering ethos derived from harmful worldviews that have kept the nation in a permanent state of normless levitations, it is going to be a hard slog; a brutal toe to toe contention.  We are in for a long revolution.  Contrary to Sowore’s own notion of instant revolutions characterized by brisk victories and irreversible gains, a long revolution is often accompanied by momentous slides and reversible momentum. Battles you thought had been fought and won simply come back to haunt you in another guise. Instant revolutionaries of yesterday dissolve into thin air. The shambolic state of Labour Party and its now motorized bicycle riders ought to serve as a telling reminder that ersatz revolutions not based on acute and accurate reading of the totality of circumstances of a multi-ethnic nation are dead before arrival.

    The current political hostilities over tax reforms are nothing but coded battles for the political and economic modernization of the country. They are just the tip of a huge iceberg and it is imperative that economic modernization is accompanied by political modernization, otherwise modernization is imperiled by counter-modernizing forces in their hegemonic resilience and resplendency. Unless the modernizing forces thrown up by the contradictions of the moment manage to discover the pan-Nigerian concert needed to impose a modernizing hegemony on the current chaotic ensemble, nothing can be guaranteed.

    This is why there is something fortuitous and fortunate about the coming of The Nation’s Journalism Foundation at this particular time. Eighteen years into the advent of Sowore and Sahara Reporters, the political situation appears more complicated while the reality is even more colorful in Nigeria. Although powerful blows have been struck against the ramparts of authoritarian misrule and savage despotism, their Praetorian Guard remain intact. The full arrival of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the debut of even more sophisticated modes of faking reality (Deep Fake) have led to a deepening of doubt about official disclosures and the officiality of any disclosure itself.

    While the living tremble in fear, even the dead are rattled in apprehension. In the fierce struggle to debase and defame reality, actual reality appears unrealizable, a mere approximation of the real thing. We have arrived at the post-public preview or purview as the case may be. Who in his right mind would have believed that it is possible for an Accountant General of a federation to steal almost the entire federal coffer under his care, or that a serving official would build for himself an estate of over seven hundred duplexes while invoking the bible? Actual reality is unrealistic, as Franz Kafka will put it.

    This is the intriguing environment in which The Nation’s Foundation for Journalism will operate. There is a plethora of other organizations operating in the field. It will strive to distinguish itself by refining its own operative parameters. Based on its antecedents, it cannot, and will not, project itself as an adversarial antithesis to the state. Rather, it will promote active dialogue with state and non-state actors, seek occasional interactive engagement with officialdom, open its portals to countervailing views as long as they operate within the bounds of decency and decorum and actively seek the maximum welfare of traditional journalists through constant workshops, interdisciplinary training  with relevant national and international agencies and programmes of retraining and retooling as well as exposure to emerging trends in the profession.

    The present generation can only do its best, hoping to pass the baton to future generations. Thank you all.

    •Being a welcome address to the inaugural meeting of the Board of Trustees, The Nation Journalism Foundation by the Chairman of the board, Professor Adebayo Williams held on Wednesday, 4th December, 2024.

  • The Youth Confab: A crucible for Nigeria’s transformative future

    The Youth Confab: A crucible for Nigeria’s transformative future

    In the complex tapestry of Nigeria’s socio-political landscape, the proposed youth conference emerges as a beacon of hope—a potential watershed moment that could fundamentally reshape the nation’s trajectory. As Nigeria grapples with multifaceted challenges ranging from economic instability to security concerns, the youth confab represents more than just a gathering; it symbolizes a critical opportunity for generational dialogue, strategic reimagining, and collective national rebirth.

    Nigeria stands at a pivotal crossroads. With a median age of approximately 18 years and over 70% of its population under 30, the youth are not just stakeholders but the primary architects of the nation’s future. The current socio-political environment—characterized by economic challenges, widespread unemployment, regional tensions, and governance inefficiencies—demands an unprecedented platform for young Nigerians to articulate their vision, concerns, and aspirations.

    The proposed youth conference is not merely a bureaucratic exercise but a profound mechanism for national healing and strategic realignment. It represents a rare opportunity to break the cycle of generational disconnect that has historically hindered Nigeria’s comprehensive development.

    Unlike previous national dialogues that often marginalized youth perspectives, this conference promises a genuinely inclusive approach. By ensuring representation across ethnic, religious, and socio-economic divides, the confab can create a microcosm of Nigeria’s diverse yet interconnected social fabric. Young Nigerians from Lagos to Sokoto, from Port Harcourt to Maiduguri, would have an unprecedented platform to engage in direct, unmediated dialogue.

    The conference’s agenda must transcend rhetorical discussions. It should provide concrete frameworks for addressing critical national challenges:

    – Youth unemployment and economic empowerment

    – Educational reform and skills development

    – Technological innovation and digital economy opportunities

    – Conflict resolution and national unity strategies

    – Governance transparency and anti-corruption mechanisms.

    One of the most significant potentials of the youth confab lies in its capacity to bridge the profound generational divide that has characterized Nigerian political discourse. By creating a structured dialogue platform, younger Nigerians can constructively engage with existing power structures, presenting innovative solutions rather than merely critiquing historical approaches.

    The urgency of convening this conference cannot be overstated. Nigeria is experiencing unprecedented demographic and technological transitions. The youth population is not only growing but becoming increasingly politically aware, technologically connected, and globally oriented.

    Delaying this conference risks further alienation and potential social fragmentation. Each passing month without a structured national youth dialogue increases the probability of spontaneous, potentially disruptive social movements emerging organically.

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    The youth confab represents a strategic investment in national stability. By providing a structured platform for dialogue, Nigeria can potentially:

    – Reduce social tensions

    – Channel youthful energy towards constructive nation-building

    – Create collaborative frameworks for addressing complex national challenges

    – Generate innovative policy recommendations

    A successful youth conference should aim to produce:

    – A comprehensive youth manifesto outlining key national development priorities

    – Specific policy recommendation documents

    – Structured engagement mechanisms between youth representatives and government institutions

    – Regional and national action plans for youth empowerment.

    For the conference to achieve its transformative potential, several critical elements must be guaranteed:

    1. Transparent selection processes for participants

    2. Guaranteed implementation frameworks for recommendations

    3. Independent monitoring and evaluation mechanisms

    4. Media transparency and broad national communication.

    Beyond immediate policy discussions, the youth confab represents a profound opportunity to reimagine Nigerian nationhood. It’s a chance to move beyond historical ethnic and religious divisions, embracing a more nuanced, forward-looking national identity.

    The conference should not be viewed as a singular event but as a catalyst for ongoing national dialogue and collaborative governance. It symbolizes hope—a collective declaration that Nigeria’s future will be shaped by dialogue, mutual understanding, and shared aspirations.

    As Nigeria stands at this critical juncture, the youth conference emerges as more than an event—it is a potential turning point. It represents the convergence of youthful energy, technological connectivity, and genuine patriotic aspiration.

    The success of this conference will not be measured by the words spoken within its halls but by the transformative actions it inspires across the nation. It is an invitation to young Nigerians to become active architects of their collective destiny, transcending the limitations of past narratives and creating a genuinely inclusive, dynamic national vision.

    The time for the youth confab is now—not as a luxury but as an absolute necessity for Nigeria’s continued existence and prosperity.

  • Wanted: A new Alaafin of Oyo

    Wanted: A new Alaafin of Oyo

    Almost three years after the demise of Oba Lamidi Layiwola Atanda Adeyemi III, the stool of the Alaafin of Oyo is still vacant, no thanks to royal family squabbles, intrigues, lack of agreement on succession, division among the kingmakers, and government’s directive.

    The scramble is not beyond expectation. Alaafin occupies a prestigious position in Yoruba land and Nigeria, and the last occupant had elevated the enviable throne further while upholding the old glory of the empire and legacies of his illustrious forebears.

    Iku Baba Yeye Oba Adeyemi III was the bridge between the closing phase of ancient times and modernity, being the first western-educated alaafin trained and equipped for royal assignment.

    He fought hard to ascend the throne, assisted by the conservative Oyomesi. His choice as the successor to Oba Gbadegesin Ladigbolu II had the backing of his ancestors and Almighty God.

    He was a cultural nationalist; highly knowledgeable about history and tradition. He was fashionable and affable, extending tentacles of influence. He was insulated from the political pressures that created many huddles for his father, Oba Alhaji Adeniran Adeyemi II. Oyo grew in leaps and bounds during his reign, hosting many tertiary institutions and savouring the prosperity of a modern era.

    Never shy to make his opinion on national issues known, Oba Adeyemi III advocated a strong local government system and believed in restructuring to foster true federalism.

    At the twilight of his life, he undertook the duty of reconciling warring members of the Southwest political elite. But he could not accomplish the self-imposed task before he passed on.

    Since Awo and MKO Abiola could not make it to the Presidency, Oba Adeyemi had prayed for the enthronement of a Yoruba son as president. But by the time God answered his prayer and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was inaugurated, he and two other top monarchs – Soun Jimoh Oyewumi Ajagungbade of Ogbomoso and Olubadan Lekan Balogun of Ibadan – had joined their ancestors.

    Ibadan’s succession pattern has endured for centuries. Therefore, a new monarch emerged through seniority. In Ogbomoso, a cleric also ascended the throne. Oyo is not that lucky.

    Oba Adeyemi was from Alowolodu Royal House. It is therefore, the turn of Agunloye to produce his successor. No fewer than 82 princes contested for the crown. Although it was said that a name was forwarded to the kingmakers, and later to the government, it was disputed by a section of the Oyomesi, which cried foul that due process was not followed.

    The Oyo State government, therefore, decided to delay the installation until the institutional framework for the emergence of a new king was followed.

    Expectedly, the process shifted to the court.

    There is a need for further consultations among the royal house, the kingmakers, and the government for consensus building. The throne should not be vacant for too long to prevent the Ijebu-Igbo scenario whereby a replacement could only be found, 28 years after the demise of Oba Sami Adetayo, Ikupakude IV.

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    The two ruling houses of Adeyemi Alowolodu and Agunloye trace their roots to Alaafin Atiba, who founded the present Oyo.

    Atiba had many children. The two prominent children were Adelu Agunloye and Alowolodu Adeyemi. After Atiba passed on, Adelu Agunloye became the king. After the death of Adelu Agunloye, Alowolodu Adeyemi I became the king.

    Adelu Agunloye’s son, Lawani Amubieya Agogo-Ija, became the Alaafin in 1905; he ruled till 1911. His son, Siyanbola Ladigbolu Onikepe, became the king after him. According to historians, because Agogo-Ija’s reign was short, his son, Siyanbola Ladigbolu Onikepe, was asked to succeed him.

    Siyanbola was succeeded in 1945 by Adeyemi II, who was succeeded by Bello Gbadegesin Ladigbolu, who died in 1968. There was an interregnum of two years due to royal rivalry.

    The number of aspirants to the throne has now increased. Other descendants of Atiba, whose fathers, grandfathers, and even great-grandfathers ( Adelabu, Adesiyen, Adediran, Adejumo, Olawoyin, Tele Agbojuloogun, Ala, Adewusi, Adesetan 1 and 2, Adeleye, Adeotun, Afonja, Agbonrin, Tela Okitipapa, Ogo, Momodu, Adesokan, and Adejojo) never became Alaafin, are trying to press for their rights and asserting personality. It is up to the Oyomesi to resolve the logjam. All the princes are qualified. But only one of them will ascend the throne.

    Throughout history, most occupants of the throne have portrayed themselves as true kings of Yoruba and defenders of the race, beginning from their progenitor, Oranmiyan, the grandson of Oduduwa, progenitor of the race.

    As makers of history and heads of an empire stretching to the Benin Republic, they shouldered the burden of resisting external aggressors, particularly from the northern and western neighbours, before colonialism finally broke the empire.

    The next Alaafin is expected to take after his predecessors in valour, wit, and patriotism. Besides the general expectation that he should be a blue blood, he should also be highly educated and have a vast network. The next Alaafin should also be a mixer like Adeyemi III, a man of colour, immense intellect, and native wisdom. He should be the collective choice of the majority and not an imposed candidate with divisive and destabilising tendencies.

    An alaafin should be a unifying factor. He should be willing and ready to work with other prominent natural rulers – Ooni of Ife, Alake of Egba land, Olubadan, Awujale of Ijebu land, Akarigbo of Remo land, Ewi of Ado-Ekiti, Deji of Akure, Osemawe of Ondo, Owa Obokun of Ijesa land ( recently vacant), and Oba of Benin, who is also a descendant of Oduduwa – in articulating the interest of the Yoruba nation within the federation.

    In history, the exploits of past alaafins have served as a source of inspiration. Sango was a revered ruler, and his background cemented the diplomatic ties between Oyo and Tapa, his mother being the daughter of Elempe, king of Nupe.

    Abiodun has remained the best Alaafin. He ended the rascality of the military leader and Prime Minister in the Old Oyo Empire during the 17th and 18th centuries, Basorun Gaa, and presided over a prosperous kingdom. There was no economic hardship. He ruled with the fear of the gods.

    Ajagbo was a creative ruler who created the office of the legendary generalissimo, Aare Ona Kankanfo, to secure the kingdom and defend personal interests. Knowing the implications of what he had done, he decreed that on no account should any Aare wage war against Iwere, where his mother hailed from. He was sure that no Kankanfo would be up in arms against Oyo, the capital.

    Atiba was a peaceful ruler, whose son, Adeyemi I, presided over the years of turbulence in Yoruba land. Fed up with the tribal wars, violence, and commotion, Adeyemi I invited the British to intervene in the Ekiti Parapo war between Ibadan warriors, led by Aare Latoosa, and Ekiti forces, led by Ogedengbe of Ilesa and Fabunmi of Okemesi.

    As colonialism was winding down, tension arose between traditional rulers and their subjects over the sharing political powers. Such was the case between Alaafin Adeyemi II and Chief Bode Thomas, the Balogun of Oyo. The rest, as it is said, is history. The colonial lords hijacked power from the traditional rulers and later restored it to the political elite, who first accommodated them as partners in progress but much later relegated them to the backgrounds.

    Leaving an ancient town without a head is counter-productive. The supremacy of the constitutional order over the traditional institution is acknowledged, but the performance of a myriad of traditional roles at the grassroots by the royal fathers, including the settlement of land disputes, communal crises, and marital rifts, the preservation of identities, intelligence gathering in aid of security, and general maintenance of order and peace are complementary. If there is a void in these areas, and a particular community is in a crisis, peace across the state cannot be total.

    The traditional institution is the cornerstone of the local government system. They are the intermediaries between the government and their people, who serve as channels of communication and enlightenment.

    Oyo needs the traditional institution to sustain its position as a respected Yoruba town. The installation of an Alaafin is central to achieving this. The earlier the revered traditional ruler is installed in the ancient town, the better for all the parties in the imbroglio. A peaceful resolution of the matter is urgent and necessary.

  • Petroleum and Nigeria’s underdevelopment conundrum

    Petroleum and Nigeria’s underdevelopment conundrum

    Once again, we are back to where we have all too often found ourselves in our developmental trajectory nearly six and half decades after the attainment of flag independence. I refer to the return of fuel scarcity, the resultant long queue of vehicles at fuel stations in towns and cities across the country with dire consequences for economic productivity, the inexplicable hide-and-seek game by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) on the root cause of the problem before its belated admittance of its humongous indebtedness to oil marketers and, again, another round of increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) signaling further negative implications for inflationary spirals. I have lost count of the number of times that the pump price of fuel has been raised since my youth as successive administrations purport to remove a seemingly never-ending subsidy attendant on the continuous exportation of crude oil with which the country is abundantly blessed and the importation of refined petroleum at humongous cost.

    In the run up to the last presidential election, the major presidential candidates all pledged to remove the subsidy which one of them, Peter Obi, claimed he would do on day one if elected, describing the scheme as an elaborate scam. Yet, with President Bola Tinubu taking the decision on his inauguration on May 29, last year, to remove the subsidy, an unpopular policy option his predecessor had kicked down the line, his defeated opponents in the last election – Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi- have opted to play politics with the issue grandstanding that they could have pursued a different path. In truth, the country had hardly any room for maneuver. A sinister and cynical cabal had seized on the inexcusable non-functioning of local refineries for decades to turn the importation of refined petroleum into an expansive criminal self-enrichment enterprise.

    The option of the government continuing to bridge the gap between the combined associated costs of fuel importation and the relatively affordable price it was sold to consumers was unsustainable. The government had had to resort to incurring humongous debts in foreign loans to fund its operations with sizable amounts of dwindling total revenues dedicated to debt servicing.

    But at the time President Tinubu announced the ‘final’ removal of the subsidy, the new administration was not totally in the picture as regards the sharp decline in volume of crude oil production due to industrial scale oil theft, the large amounts of crude oil that had been sold upfront in the futures market with the revenue collected and expended in advance and, of course, the deceptive illusion of expectations that the Port Harcourt refinery would be functional by April 2024 as repeatedly confidently affirmed by chief executives of the NNPCL. The new target date of the Port Harcourt refinery commencing local refining and sale of fuel was set for August and yet we are now in September and there is no indication of the pledge being redeemed anytime soon. Remarkably, the NNPCL celebrated its achieving what it considered to be an appreciable level of profitability in the last financial year only for its huge indebtedness to oil marketers responsible for the current acute scarcity of fuel across the country to be made public. Is this not a contradiction in terms – high profitability co-existing with humongous indebtedness?

    Only the mischievous and crassly partisan would blame the a little over one year in office Tinubu administration for the complications, challenges, and mostly self-inflicted woes of the petroleum industry and the associated sufferings inflicted on the Nigerian people as exemplified, for example, by the fresh fuel price increases. Yet, the administration must take it as a cardinal responsibility to undertake a surgical organizational procedure on the NNPCL to sanitize and reposition the company to offer productive service to the Nigerian people. The NNPCL should not be immune from the kind of forensic audit conducted on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the aftermath of Godwin Emefiele’s reign of impunity for which he is currently facing the due process of law.

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    Despite the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the purported transition of the oil behemoth into a private company, its operations and processes are widely believed to be as opaque as ever. Some experts contend, for instance, that the cost of producing a barrel of crude oil in Nigeria is the highest in the world. The controversial but knowledgeable Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, has publicly averred that the efforts of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, and the CBN governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, cannot bear optimum fruit without a more transparent operation of the NNPCL and a more accurate data on the country’s crude oil sales and attendant revenues.

    The quagmire in which our petroleum industry finds itself today was quite avoidable had the country’s leaders at various times listened to and worked more closely with Nigeria’s conscientious and patriotic progressive intellectuals. For instance, as far back as 12th February, 1971, the late Dr Bala Usman had, in a paper titled ‘Petroleum in the Economy of Nigeria’ had undertaken an incisive analysis of the problems and prospects of an industry so critical to the country’s development. As he put it then, “All the proposals and plans for post-war Nigeria are based on certain assumptions about our oil. From the government which, according to its Commissioner of Finance, expects a revenue of several hundred million, to the foreign businessmen licking their lips and assuring us of our rosy economic future, to the ordinary man and woman – oil has become a basis for optimism about the future. This widespread awareness of our wealth in oil is combined with gross ignorance about the operations of the petroleum industry and its international context.”

    It is the unfortunate truth that ignorance about the operations of the country’s petroleum industry including the actual amount of crude oil extracted from the bowels of our earth and sold as exports by the oil multinationals has persisted for the most part of our post-independence history. In his submission over five decades ago, Bala Usman had pointed out not only the impunity of the international oil companies in their mode of operation in the country but even the reckless flaring of gas which he had identified as a major problem even then. In his words, “Put against the great potentialities of the oil industry as a generator of both industrial and agricultural growth in the whole of our country, what we have gained so far from the industry is paltry. The government in the seven years 1958 to 1966 received a sum of £68.7 million, cash, since that time this sum might now total up £150 million. A few Nigerians (actually about 5,000) have got jobs, mostly semi-skilled and unskilled. A few contractors have made a fortune. But the price of petroleum products from petrol and kerosene to fertilizer, drugs and nylon have gone up. The crude oil is sucked out of our sub-soil, piped straight to the tankers and taken straight to Britain and Western Europe to feed their expanding refineries and petrochemical works and fuel their industries”.

    Of course, there is a lot that has changed in the petroleum industry terrain since Bala Usman penned those words. It has generated much higher revenues for the economy over the years but the developmental impact of this has been mitigated by astronomical corruption. The Nigerian Liquified Natural Gas Company (NLNG) has emerged as a viable, profitably and relatively efficiently run company indicating better utilization of the country’s gas resources and with many suggesting this as a model for the NNPCL to follow. To some extent, the current travails of the petroleum industry are also partly a function of the perhaps inevitable politicization of what ought to be essentially purely technical economic public policy issues. On the decision to construct the Kaduna refinery, for instance, Cliff Edogun, in his study, ‘The structure of state capitalism in the Nigerian petroleum industry’, noted that “The issue was whether another expensive refinery situated hundreds of kilometers from crude source was necessary, especially when the mode of withdrawal was to depend on pipelines that are vulnerable and subject to sabotage. The technocrats were arguing for cost-saving but the bureaucrats concluded that it would be politically expedient to site a refinery in Kaduna to justify federal character”.

    The roll out of locally refined petrol this week by Dangote Industries Limited is good news from an embattled sector but the much sought-after relief that this is expected to provide consumers may not be immediately forthcoming due to continued inefficiencies and opacity in the industry as well as complications associated with the interplay of market forces. Beyond this, how much of the monumental Dangote Refinery is reflective of local knowledge and domestic mastery of the industry’s technology thus stimulating confidence in Nigeria’s enhanced capacity to autonomously optimize its potentials for the country’s future transformation?

    Even as we daily suffer from our incapacity to refine crude oil locally, we read and see daily in the media how security agencies ceaselessly destroy hundreds of illegal refineries operated by enterprising locals to refine the commodity admittedly in a rudimentary and crude manner. But can’t they be empowered with the requisite skills to refine the crude more professionally and thus add their output to our legal stock of local capacity? I recall once again the words of the late Professor Pius Okigbo at the First Obafemi Awolowo Foundation Dialogue in 1993 that during the civil war, the Biafran scientific community, among other feats, “succeeded in building out of entirely locally fabricated materials a giant petroleum refining facility and thereby made the technology so diffuse and more universally understood and applied than anywhere else in the world”. Surely this should not be unattainable rocket science to us in today’s Nigeria.

    •This piece was first

    published September 7, 2024

  • Crowd control in NPFL

    Crowd control in NPFL

    I’m frightened. With each passing week across the globe has come agonising times, with the Europeans providing the solutions to what many people here in the Nigeria ecosystem would tag as ‘unforeseen circumstances’. In fact, in Guinea last weekend, 56 people, yes human beings, died in the repulsive circumstances of poor crowd control at a match centre where Guineans celebrated the birthday of their leader.

    A soccer match in southeast Guinea turned deadly, leaving 56 dead after violence and a crush erupted during a tournament honouring military leader Mamady Doumbouya. The tragedy unfolded in Nzerekore, one of Guinea’s largest cities, where a controversial refereeing decision sparked chaos. Yes, what was meant to celebrate a leader resulted in needless political bickering, with the 56 dead people lying prostrate in the morgues. Of that number, many may have taken the corpses of their dead relations, including kids, women etc who went to watch the stalemated game, to be buried while typical of most African settings, government has engaged the people in buck passing utterances.

    What was so special in this game that a few naughty Guineans chose to turn the stadium into a battle field instead of a platform to celebrate a leader, if he truly deserved such a gathering.  How could some beast have taken the laws in their hands with no immediate response from the security architecture in place at the stadium for a game meant to honour a military leader? In fact, visuals capturing what went down last week are disturbing, going by the type of weapons of mass destruction used to maim and kill these scores of people who had gone to satisfy their craving for soccer, not chickens or reptiles.

    The stampede broke out on Sunday afternoon at the Nzerekore City stadium during the final of a local tournament between the Labe and Nzerekore teams in honor of Guinea’s military leader, Mamadi Doumbouya, Guinea’s Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah said on the X platform.

    “The government condemns the incidents that marred the match between Labe N’Zerekore,” Bah posted on Facebook, reiterating a “call for calm, so as not to impede hospital services from aiding the injured.”

    “This (the disputed penalty) angered supporters who threw stones. This is how the security services used tear gas,” the local Media Guinea reported.

    Media reports further revealed that: ”People were running as they tried to escape from the stadium, many of them jumping the high fence. Videos also showed many people lying on the floor in what looked like a hospital as a crowd gathered nearby, some assisting the wounded.”

    Pity. Would all these remarks from the government through the Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah and the different media outlets bring back the dead? Guinea isn’t a small soccer nation, making it imperative to ask who organised the game? What role did the Guinean FA play before; during and after the game to avert what happened? Or where they left in the dark?

    The figure from the Sunday show of shame was 56, though words was rife that true figure could be 135 based on scoops from the homes of those who died. But I have chosen to stay with the official 56, with my other posers being what CAF and FIFA are saying if the Guinean FA chiefs have been mum. As we await what government’s reactions would be with the outcome of the expected investigation reports, my thought went straight to our domestic football, though the government isn’t military.

    The current sytem in Nigeria would have allowed the authorities running sports in the country to supervise the game and just provide the necessary logistics based on the calibre of people expected to be in the stadium on that day.

    At the domestic league level, my fear rests with the issue of quality of crowd control mechanisms in place for different stadium in the country. My other worry has to do with the fact that we still don’t know the sitting capacity of every stadium in Nigeria to determine how to control the crowd. What interests those who own clubs in the country is the euphoria arising from the owners’ spur of the moment declarations that the gates be thrown ajar to test their political popularity. Other consequences don’t matter to the real owners of the clubs until the unexpected happens.

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    How many of the entrances into the stadium’s terraces in the country are functional and who ensures that overzealous club owners don’t sell tickets to the fans above the stadium’s sitting capacity? Are those manning the gates been trained on what to do when there is the urgent need to evacuate the place when any crisis occurs? Would the gatemen be taught how to throw the gates ajar with 15 minutes to the end of games as we witness in countries where the game is organised as a business?

    I’ve seen the mammoth crowd at Kano and Enugu for instance this year and the crowd control mechanisms left much to be desired, going by the way fans were allowed to sit around the inner enclosure of the stadia. It showed at a glance that both organisers sold tickets above the sitting capacities of both stadia, to the glory of God. One only hopes that those whose duty it is to ensure that the right things are done do so to avert any carnage, if left undone.

    The current leadership of the domestic league should use the interlude of the competition to task clubs to provide the detail of their stadium’s sitting capacity before matches of the second round begin. The organisers could use the league’s interlude to inspect the stadia to ensure that uncompleted structures are fixed, such that the materials don’t become weapons of mass destruction whenever unpleasant incidents occur as we saw in Guinea last Sunday. Indeed, tickets for matches must tell the fan where his or her seat is located. Such a spectator should be able to invite any of the security operative to intercede on his behalf if his or her seat has been taken over by another fan. In Nigerian stadia, one ticket can be sold to two people. No big deal. All you will be told by fellow fans would be ‘Oga make we manage like that. Hey, oya shift make we create space. Up Nigeria!’

    Any time a game is played in serious football playing nations, you are told how many people watched the specific game. That way, one could tell how much was realised from the gates. This way, club loyalists know which stadium has the largest capacity per game. Not so in Nigeria because the administration of football isn’t seen as a business concern here.

    Those who run our football are either too forgetful (forgive me please) or they intentionally cast an indulgent eye to imminent pitfalls ahead, only to say when such problems arise, ”but I warned earlier, you thought you knew it all.”

    This is the premise of all issues, not only in football but all the sports federations. The countries that excel in sporting events have systems that guarantee enough funds for the sportsmen and sportswomen to compete with the best, such as tax rebates on sport-friendly firms, lotteries, and businesses owned by wealthy nationals who know what is in such a sponsorship that benefits them by the sitting government. Such financial taxes are spelled out to companies and wealthy citizens after agreements have been reached. These cast-in-stone policies are binding to all the parties to such an extent that breaches are adequately addressed to allow either of the parties to seek redress in court.