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  • Steady hands in a restless season

    Steady hands in a restless season

    In a week when the nation trembled under the weight of coordinated attacks and cynical assaults on its peace, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu once again returned to the core of statecraft: security. The week unfolded not with noise or drama but with quiet, decisive movements, movements that revealed a President tightening the bolts of Nigeria’s security architecture with deliberate speed and unwavering focus.

    For a country still absorbing the shock of recent mass abductions in Kebbi, Kwara, Niger and other vulnerable corridors, last week became the clearest demonstration yet that the Commander-in-Chief is keeping steady hands on the nation’s wheel, restructuring from the top, energising the chain of command, and signalling unmistakably that the season of hesitation is over.

    On Monday evening, at about 7:03 p.m., former Chief of Defense Staff, General Christopher Gwabin Musa (rtd.), arrived at the State House for a closed-door meeting with the President. It was his first appearance at the Villa since his retirement in October. No official disclosed the agenda. No aide gave background hints. But to those who follow the pulse of national security, the timing and the personality involved suggested the beginning of something consequential.

    Tinubu does not summon a recently retired CDS at night unless the security calculus is shifting. And within hours of that quiet meeting, the shift became public: Minister of Defense Mohammed Badaru resigned, citing health reasons. The President accepted the resignation immediately, thanked him for his service, and signalled the imminence of a major reset in the nation’s security leadership.

    By Tuesday morning, the reset was fully in motion. The President forwarded the name of General Musa to the Senate as his choice for the new Minister of Defense. Within hours, on Wednesday, the Senate commenced screening and after about five hours, confirmation was complete. And on Thursday morning, the retired general was sworn in.

    A three-day transition, unprecedented in speed, signalled two things: that the President was moving with intention, and that the task of stabilising the nation’s defense architecture could no longer wait for the luxury of long bureaucratic rhythms. In a period defined by coordinated attacks and the abduction of schoolgirls and worshippers, delay had become a risk no responsible leader would take.

    President Tinubu captured the urgency in a brief message on X, thanking the Senate and emphasising that General Musa’s appointment came “at a critical juncture in our lives as a Nation.” And indeed, critical hardly begins to describe the complexity of the security challenges unfolding across multiple fronts.

    But if the Musa appointment was about leadership renewal, the President’s actions on Tuesday afternoon were about operational direction. In a meeting that lasted more than an hour, Tinubu sat with the nation’s service chiefs and heads of intelligence agencies, issuing fresh directives and demanding new approaches to strategy execution.

    Those in attendance included NSA Nuhu Ribadu; DSS DG Oluwatosin Ajayi; NIA DG Mohammed Mohammed; CDS General Olufemi Oluyede; Defence Intelligence chief Lt.-Gen. Emmanuel Undiadeye; the Army, Navy and Air Force chiefs.

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    The President’s instructions were clear: greater efficiency, stronger coordination, improved execution, and measurable results. With the yuletide fast approaching, a period criminal elements historically exploit, the Commander-in-Chief was insisting on tighter responses and smarter deployments. The meeting was also the latest in a chain of engagements following his earlier declaration of a nationwide security emergency.

    And yet, in the midst of firefighting, the President still found room to speak to the heart of the military institution. At the launch of the 2026 Armed Forces Remembrance Day emblem, he shifted the national conversation from fear to honour, from the anxiety of the moment to the duty owed to those who stand between the nation and chaos.

    The President reminded the nation that as insecurity mounts, the military continues to absorb the heaviest blows on behalf of ordinary citizens. “As a grateful nation, we must honour the fallen, support the wounded, and care for all who answered the call to serve,” he said.

    Even more significant was his admonition against divisive rhetoric. In a season of fear and suspicion, Tinubu insisted that Nigeria’s diversity remained a strength, not a fracture point. Unity, he reminded Nigerians, is not only a moral imperative but a security requirement.

    He highlighted ongoing reforms: enhanced allowances, upgraded barracks, strengthened healthcare systems, expansion of Defense Health Maintenance Services Limited, and the modernisation of pension verification processes. He pointed to operational gains: tens of thousands of insurgents surrendered, key terrorist leaders neutralised, and several captives freed. In the maritime domain, piracy and oil theft have been drastically curtailed, with new naval platforms deployed to secure the waterways.

    These are incremental but decisive steps in the larger project of rebuilding the nation’s internal defense shield, a project the President identifies as the “central pillar of the Renewed Hope Agenda”.

    Indeed, the events of last week revealed a President governing through turbulence with a steady hand. The overnight transition in defense leadership, the direct engagement with the security high command, and the reaffirmation of military morale at the Remembrance Day emblem launch all pointed to a leader refusing to surrender initiative to circumstances.

    A week that began with a silent 7 p.m. visit ended with a restructured Defense Ministry, a rebriefed security command, and a reaffirmed national commitment to unity, sacrifice and shared responsibility. There were no theatrics. No exaggerated promises. Just deliberate movements, step by step, towards restoring peace in a country that has long been buffeted by forces seeking to tear it apart.

    And perhaps that is the quiet lesson: sustainable security is not built on dramatic announcements but on a chain of actions, decisions and recalibrations, each reinforcing the next. Last week, Tinubu took several of those steps, binding them into a broader strategy aimed at securing the land and reassuring its people.

    Nigeria may be going through a restless season, but it is also in a season of reconstruction, one that requires firmness, patience, and clarity of purpose. For now, the President has shown that he is not simply responding to events; he is shaping them, pushing back against the tides, and holding the line for a safer nation. In moments like this, leadership is not measured by applause but by steadiness. And last week, the steadiness was unmistakable.

    If last week was dominated by the rapid recalibration of the nation’s security architecture, President Tinubu did not allow that singular priority to eclipse other pillars essential to keeping the ship of state on course. Even in a week defined by urgency in the defense sector, the President maintained his characteristic breadth of governance, moving decisively across institutions, economic planning, diplomacy, and national cohesion. The most consequential of these non-security actions emerged on Wednesday, when the Federal Executive Council approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, a document that will shape Nigeria’s fiscal direction for the next three years.

    The approval, which came during a session presided over by the President, provided both a roadmap and a message. It signalled that while the administration battles insecurity with unrelenting focus, it has not taken its eyes off the structural economic reforms required to stabilise the nation’s finances and restore long-term prosperity. According to Ministers Atiku Bagudu and Wale Edun, who briefed after the meeting, the MTEF projects ₦50.7 trillion in revenue for 2026, anchored on improved non-oil earnings, stronger tax administration, and more disciplined public spending. The Council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day and an oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel, alongside a projected exchange rate of ₦1,512 to the dollar.

    The President, the ministers revealed, welcomed the MTEF’s direction but insisted that the economy must grow at a faster pace to meet his administration’s ambitions. He directed MDAs to channel capital spending strictly into growth-enhancing and job-creating programmes, underlining his determination to extract real results from government investments. The Council also approved two important financing windows, an AfDB-backed $100 million fund for youth entrepreneurs and an Islamic Development Bank financing package for agricultural expansion in Yobe State.

    But governance last week did not begin on Wednesday. On Monday, President Tinubu celebrated Professor Jerry Gana at 80, describing him as one of Nigeria’s most enduring public servants whose contributions marked several eras of national development. The same day, he received Taraba Governor Agbu Kefas, his first visit since defecting to the APC, signalling continuing political realignments across the country.

    On Tuesday, the President hosted Governor Alex Otti, who was believed to have met him as part of ongoing efforts to secure the release of jailed leader of the proscribed IPOB, Nnamdi Kanu. Even as security agencies intensify operations nationwide, Tinubu has kept political dialogue open, reflecting his multi-track approach to national stability.

    Wednesday began with the swearing-in of five new Permanent Secretaries and the Chairman of the National Population Commission, Aminu Yusuf, ahead of the FEC meeting. The ceremony expanded the administrative backbone required to implement national policy efficiently.

    By Thursday, the President had shifted to diplomacy, receiving letters of credence from 21 new envoys and reaffirming Nigeria’s commitment to global peace, cooperation, and shared prosperity. The day also saw him pay tribute to two remarkable Nigerians; industrialist Samuel Adedoyin at 90 and nationalist Tanko Yakasai at 100, both reminders of the country’s deep reservoirs of service, sacrifice, and enterprise.

    The week closed with the President celebrating Senator Wole Fadeyi’s traditional title from the Ooni of Ife, inaugurating governing boards for NADF, BOA and UBEC, and holding a private meeting with Aliko Dangote, further evidence of a Presidency deeply engaged across sectors.

    Though dominated by security reforms, last week ultimately reflected the full breadth of Tinubu’s governance: stabilising the economy, strengthening institutions, deepening diplomacy, and celebrating national icons, all while confronting the country’s most pressing threats, President steering the ship on every front.

  • Osun primary: conmen on the prowl

    Osun primary: conmen on the prowl

    As All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship aspirants warm up for next week’s primary in Osogbo, capital of Osun State, some of them are targets of swindlers.

    One of them – a serial contender – nearly fell prey recently in Lagos, when he approached a perceived middleman for help to shore up his chances.

    The scammer saw the desperation in the man he wanted to cheat when, in response to his request for a broader endorsement, promised to take him to the Abuja to meet the high and mighty in the party.  But on one condition.

    The impostor, who claims to have the ears of the leaders of the party requested for $70,000 for his service, to be paid upfront.

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    Over N100 million for access money? Well, it could be more, particularly for the gullible. Afterall, it is the equivalent of the fee for the Expesssion of Interest form. More importantly, the road to Abuja is not ordinary. Only some big men can facilitate access to the high corridor.

    But the aspirant suddenly came into his senses after sleep-walking down to Lagos. He demurred after waking up from his deep slumber.

    The result:  No access, imaginary or real. But no parting with hard-earned money.

    At the end, there was no victor, no victim of executive 419, and no vanguished.

  • The Nigerian state as ‘a country without country men’? (2)

    The Nigerian state as ‘a country without country men’? (2)

    By Segun Ayobolu (PIX)

    At the commencement of his inaugural lecture titled ‘The Nigerian State: A Country Without Countrymen’, Professor Babatunde Olusegun Agara of the Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Edo State, professed his guiding life credos of faith in God Almighty as a Christian, commitment to positive societal change beneficial to the masses and adherence to the Marxist tenets of revolutionary transformation in the realm of economics. His analysis of the different manifestations of disruptive violence in contemporary Nigeria combines the values, assumptions and outlook of radical political economy a la the late Claude Ake with a rigorous application of the theoretical framework and conceptual classifications of comparative politics and strategic studies.

    The most attractive, informative and useful feature of this inaugural lecture is his exhaustive interrogation of the identities, operational modalities, value-orientations and organisational structures, especially of the diverse non-state actors currently threatening the Nigerian state’s monopoly of the instruments and techniques of violence with negative consequences for the country’s territorial integrity, unity and political stability.

    He identifies what he describes as ‘the evil triad’ of insecurity, threats of secession and herders’ invasion’ as the prevailing most potent sources of danger to the security of lives and property in Nigeria. Surely, those who have taken up arms against the Nigerian State, snuffing out the lives of fellow citizens with impunity at will, do not see the victims of their violence as fellow countrymen or women. Understanding the nature, characteristics and motivations of the diverse individuals and groups involved in these largely asymmetric acts of violence is thus critical to finding enduring solutions to the protracted violence that has plagued the Nigerian State over the last decade and a half.

    This is partly why the content of this lecture should be of particular interest to Nigerian policy makers and those involved in various forms of conflict mitigation, conflict control, conflict containment and conflict management in Nigeria.

    Professor Agara’s interrogation of the phenomenon of insurgency encompasses features, manifestations and tendencies that include the entirety of Africa beyond Nigeria. One of the forms of insurgencies which he focuses his searchlight on is that of ‘States against citizens’. He avers that states can mount an insurgency against their citizens, including the enforcement of sanctions against those who violate their laws through extant legal processes or “through the clandestine use of illegal violence designed to intimidate and terrorise citizens with the intention of preventing them from opposing the government and disobeying or contravening the state’s laws”. The latter objective is achieved through psychologically and physically restricting and constricting laws, or more brazenly, the outright elimination of adversaries of incumbent governments in control of states’ apparatuses.

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    The second kind of insurgency examined in the lecture is that of citizens against citizens. According to him, “A major manifestation of this type of insurgency is by vigilante violence and ethnic or tribal conflicts. Although over 80% of the insurgency experienced in the world today is located within Asia and Africa, its manifestation has always taken the form of ethnic conflict. The vigilante type emerged primarily because of the inability of the police to control crime, and these vigilante groups, at least in Nigeria, later metamorphosed into ethnic militias…this type of ethnic insurgency has been further complicated by religiously motivated violence, thereby making the divide between ethnic conflict and religious violence difficult to delineate”. He attributes the eruption of ethnic insurgency to such factors as group loyalty and identity, feelings of marginalisation and alienation, struggle for access to state power and the quest for resource control.

    Professor Agara also examines another form of insurgency, which is the expression of discontent by citizens against the policies of a state or its leadership, leading to “either organised or spontaneous uprising or riots having neither clear political goals nor organised leadership”. This type of insurgency, he points out, is aimed at overthrowing the government and occurs largely within a state, although it may have violent repercussions that transcend territorial boundaries. Next, the professor focuses on the assorted means that insurgents can opt for in seeking to achieve their objectives. These include guerrilla wars, revolution and terrorism.

    He explains that guerrilla wars are preferred by insurgents when they face stronger, better-equipped enemy forces against which a diffuse type of war is more effective. “Thus, as a strategy, guerrilla warfare avoids direct, decisive battles and instead, opts for a series of protracted but small skirmishes where the insurgents’ inferiority in terms of manpower, arms and equipment can be turned to an advantage by adopting flexible hit-and-run tactics and style of warfare…guerrilla warfare employs raids, ambushes and sabotage from remote and inaccessible bases in mountains, forests, jungles or territory of neighboring states”.

    Another feature of guerrilla warfare analysed by Professor Agara is that of many modern states, which, in addition to their regular armies, train troops called special forces to confront non-conventional combatants in irregular warfare. He submits that “As a result of the special training in sabotage, explosives and selective destruction of targets and because cruelty and brutality unmodified and unsanctioned by rules of war under which regular armies operate are the enduring characteristics of irregular warfare, these elites’ military groups actually qualify to be called terrorists-in-uniform”. On the concept of revolution, the lecturer analyses it both as a means of achieving the objectives of insurgency or as an end of achieving far-reaching social and political outcomes often by violent means. Unlike social reform, a revolution aims at smashing “the existing status quo and replacing it with a better one while at the same time resolving the issue of class antagonism and contradiction.”

    Perhaps because of our contemporary experiences in Nigeria, Professor Agara examines at greater length the phenomenon of terrorism. He identifies diverse forms of terrorism, including state terrorism, which refers to the use of terrorism by a state against its own population or state-sponsored terrorism, which is international terrorist activity sponsored by states through the provision of arms, training, safe haven or financial backing. Distinguishing between religious-motivated and politically-motivated terrorism, he notes that, although both employ the use of violence, the latter seeks to challenge the authority of the state without affecting the private rights of innocent parties, while the goals of the former are essentially “trans-temporal and the time limit of their struggle is eternity”.

    Professor Agara identifies other features of religious-motivated terrorism to include choosing the targets of violence not for military values or reasons but rather for their impact on public consciousness due to the degree of brutality or element of surprise or suddenness; portraying the perpetrators of religious-terrorism as pursuing the cause of a ‘god’ and their opponents as consequently evil; and the propagation of the divine nature of religious terrorism, which is perceived as a struggle between good and evil.

    Acts of terrorism, Professor Agara points out, are particularly deliberately geared to make the most damaging impact in order to draw the widest possible attention to the demands and exploits of the terrorists. He explains this thus: “Coupled with this is the fact that terrorist actions would be useless if not directed to attract attention, the attention of a specific in which a particular mode of fear is sought to be created. The violence of terrorism is not an end in itself. Rather, violence is employed precisely to create a sense of fear, terror and uncertainty in the people who are the audience of terrorism”.

    Another interesting aspect of this lecture is the professor’s exhaustive examination of the nexus between terrorism and organised crime. He argues that the transition towards a more closely knit, globalised economy has also facilitated “the emergence of a transnational form of organized criminality, which has increased the possibilities of terrorists becoming involved in illegal business”. Insurgents increasingly exploit the opportunities provided by improved communication, advances in information technologies as well as greater mobility of goods and services across countries, among others, to participate in purely criminal activities.

    At the level of operational modes of operation, the convergence between terrorist groups and organized crime cartels, according to Professor Agara, includes involvement in the trafficking or use of drugs; engaging in illegal trading activities through, for instance, the use of the black market to sell gold, diamonds and other precious minerals to fund their activities; the facilitation of their operations through forging documents such as traveling documents, passports and credit cards to ease their movements across different countries and kidnapping for ransom as the fastest and perhaps the surest way to acquire funds for criminals and jihadists”.

    Other areas of convergence in the mode of Operation between terrorist groups and criminal gangs, which the author illuminates, include the use of intimidation, aggression and threats to extort money from members of the public including the payment of money by victims in turn for protection by the criminal elements; creation of front or screen companies to launder and legitimize laundering of and movement of money or funds acquired through shadowy sources of organized crime or other illicit activities.

    Two forms of convergence by terrorist groups and criminal syndicates, pointed out by the Professor, include direct collaboration between criminal cartels and terrorist groups especially where both share similar religious ideology and beliefs or where such collaboration is a function of meeting a mutually beneficial economic activity or practical need.

    Comparing the areas of convergence as regards the organizational methods of terrorist groups in contrast with criminal cartels, Professor Agara notes that these include the primacy of the pursuit, first and foremost, of pecuniary and monetary interests to the detriment of overtly political goals; an essentially hierarchical organizational structure by both; an organizational structure premised on a cell-like formation with each cell consisting of not more than 10 members and each cell enabled to function independently of each other. Furthermore, Membership into organised criminal groups and terrorist organisations is never advertised or announced, nor are written applications invited, with applicants shortlisted for interview. By virtue of their exclusivity, the membership is also exclusive, not open, but significantly limited with strict qualification or criteria such as ethnic background, kinship, race, criminal record, religious affiliation (particularly in the case of religious terrorism like ISIS,al-Qaeda and Boko Haram).

    On recruitment of members, he notes that both members of terror groups and criminal gangs demand, in addition to basic qualifications in either criminal proclivities or extremist ideological bent, “potential members would also require to be sponsored by a high-ranking member of the group and must prove qualified by their willingness to perform any acts required of them, obey orders and keep secrets”. Ironically, although both terrors groups and criminal gangs are essentially lawless elements by definition, Professor Agara notes that the activities of members are guided by rules and regulations which they are expected to follow; both terrors groups and criminal cartels claim monopoly over particular territories over which they strive to maintain dominance; both types of groups do not hesitate as regards their willingness to exploit the use of illegal violence while both organized criminal gangs and terrorist organizations constitute an ongoing criminal conspiracy against the society but designed to persist through time and even after and beyond the lifetimes of the present members”.

    In the last three sections of the lecture, Professor Agara rigorously interrogates the phenomena of secession and herders’ invasion, which he had earlier cited as components of the ‘triad of evil’ currently afflicting the Nigerian State. And in conclusion, he examines the implications of the widespread violence for the efficacy of the Nigerian State in performing its obligations, particularly of maintaining the safety of the lives and property of citizens. He argues that failed states are characterised by an implosion of states’ structures, which results in the incapability of governmental authorities to perform their functions, including providing security, respecting the rule of law, exercising control, supplying education and health services and maintaining economic and structural infrastructures”. Does he then arrive at the conclusion that Nigeria is a failed state?

    Rather, he argues that the concept of State failure is a gradual unfolding of loss of state efficacy, which can be measured along a continuum, “as the state becomes progressively less capable of performing its functions and as a result becomes more and more ‘failed’. Complete state collapse is the ultimate, but rare result, while different stages of state failure can be encountered along the continuum”. Since he argues that the defining characteristic of state failure lies in the implosion of government institutions and the inability of any group to constitute the governing authority by effectively replacing the government in power, Professor Agara introduces a new category between failed and collapsed states to depict the Nigerian situation.

    Of the Nigerian case, he submits thus that “While this may not be categorical, the fact that the institutions of the state still function, and are periodically contested for, may be believed to be the fact and reality of a failed state where such institutions have crumbled and, in some cases, are no longer in existence. Hence, the need to introduce another concept- to describe such states – as fractured states. Nigeria may be described as a fractured state since the institutional pillars on which the state rests are still ‘operational’ and visibly contested for, even though it has not adequately provided the public with the necessary goods and services, including security of lives and property”. How do we stem the complete slide of the Nigerian State from a fractured polity to a failed one or a collapsed State? That is a critical question facing both the operators of the Nigerian State, as well as those with specialisation in the study of complex, plural, federal societies like Nigeria such as Professor Babatunde Agara.

  • Battle for Osun

    Battle for Osun

    Attention is shifting to Osun State, where political parties are expected to conduct governorship primaries next month to produce their candidates for next year’s poll.

    Four parties are effectively in the race to produce the governor: the highly polarised and decimated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), where no fewer than eight aspirants are battling to get the ticket, the uproarious African Democratic Congress (ADC) that is tearing itself down with intra-party conflicts, and the Accord (A), which the “partyless” governor may adopt as an emergency platform.

    In Osun, the PDP has lost power without an election or a coup. Governor Ademola Adeleke stepped aside from the party, which his supporters described as a sinking ship. He is said to be on his way to the Accord, as previously speculated. It is a way of rescuing himself from the disaster the PDP brought on itself.

    The main opposition party is facing a worsening crisis. Its national leadership is gasping for breath to swim out of the ocean of disputes within. The party’s top hierarchy is a subject of litigation in the court. This is the fallout of the acrimonious presidential convention of 2022, which threw up Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate for the 2023 poll.

    Since then, the  party’s centre has been falling apart, and nothing appears potent enough to fasten it up. It is being decimated daily by the gale of high-profile defections. The party, which occupied Aso Villa for 16 years, is experiencing an accelerated diminishing returns never envisaged by its founding fathers.

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    The majority of PDP members are with Ede-born Governor Adeleke in his search for a new platform. That he is seeking refuge in a borrowed platform is discomforting and demoralising. Despite the turn of events, the PDP remains a brand. It needs no introduction, even if its structures are now distressed. Adeleke is not a seasoned politician, like his illustrious brother, “Serubawon” Isiaka Adeleke, although he has achieved the double accomplishments of becoming a senator and governor, like the deceased. But Ademola never imagined being entrusted with the huge political responsibilities, which his limited education and exposure never prepared him for. He danced his way into the National Assembly and the Bola Ige House in Osogbo, the seat of Osun State government, to the envy of seasoned actors who could not make it to those levels.

    Now, Adeleke faces a novel test of leadership, a brewing challenge he never anticipated. This is the challenge of nurturing any mushroom party he may adopt into prominence and wider acceptability.

    His exit from the PDP underscores his battle for survival. He faces a major election next year and the hurdles are real, although he wields an incumbency power. But he was not influential enough to wield that power of incumbency to prevail on three Osun PDP senators from defecting to the APC months ago. How formidable is also the incumbency factor that made “Ade Dancer” to apply to the APC for defection?

    Since his request to join APC was turned down, much ego has been deflated, and subsequent partisan moves were laced with tension. Neither could the governor rescind his decision to campaign for the APC ahead of the 2027 presidential poll nor withdraw his statement of support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid.

    Yet, it was dangerous to stay on in PDP, now polarised into two factions that are preparing for renewed legal fireworks in court next week.

    Adeleke does not openly belong to either of the factions. Also, he lacks the capacity to broker reconciliation. He never participated in the Adamasingba picnics. He is also not seen around the man the late Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu called ‘wicked Wike’, the acclaimed PDP albatross.

    No doubt, Adeleke’s exit from the PDP has created a vacuum, and nature abhors a vacuum. Thus, during the week, Adedamola Adedayo, a lowly party chieftain, became the governorship candidate of the former ruling party that instantly became a toothless bulldog. It means that not all the chieftains subscribe to Adeleke’s defection project.

    The PDP flagbearer is said to be enjoying the backing of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, although he is largely perceived as a placeholder. Many Osun PDP stalwarts who objected to Makinde’s overtures in Osun State accuse him of nursing a territorial expansionist agenda. Predictably, the flagbearer would merely appear as a venerable spectator on poll day. No other PDP governor would like to invest in his candidature.

    Adeleke will fly the ticket of any party he finally adopts. Nobody really bothers about his scorecard. He looks formidable, not for his dancing steps but because of the circumstances that brought him to power.

    Zoning is key in the State of Living Springs; this is why the parties are looking in the direction of Osun West.

    The zone, particularly Ede, is the stronghold of the governor. Its population is huge. Besides Adeleke’s incumbency power, he has a deep purse, courtesy of his wealthy family, which is ready to again bankroll the second term project. When the campaign train rolls into town, even his nephew, eminent musician David (Davido) Adeleke, may be a major anchor.

    But the governor can be stopped if the APC assembles a formidable team. This time calls for unity and sacrifice, as demonstrated by the Marine and Blue Economy Minister Gboyega Oyetola, who declined the urge to throw his hat into the ring.

    APC aspirants include Kunle Adegoke, a legal luminary; Senator Ajibola Basiru, Doctor of Law and promising National Secretary of the party; Senator Iyioola Omisore, a former deputy governor and rugged predecessor of Basiru at the national office; Benefict Alabi, the immediate past deputy governor; Senator Babajide Omoworare, a former presidential aide; Senator Mudashiru Hussein; Dotun Babayemi, a popular lawyer and defector from the PDP, and Bola Oyebamiji, a financial expert and former finance commissioner, who is likely to get the ticket if the permutations are right.

    But the Osun APC is not cohesive. Besides, the elders, called ‘Agba Osun,’ who traditionally are disposed to consensus, have not been able to persuade some of these aspirants to make sacrifices by stepping down. They may not be able to wield the big stick, where necessary, or apply persuasion, when this psychological tool would be most effective.

    Next week, the APC national leadership, after linking up with the state chapter, would unfold the mode of primary, either consensus, direct, or indirect.

    What should be avoided is a post-primary crisis. The only way to avoid danger and damage is to conduct a substantially free and fair shadow poll.

    If the primary is not credible, one or two contenders may defect to either the Social Democratic Party (SDP) or Labour Party (LP).

    In Osun, ADC of Rauf Aregbesola is roaring like a lion, but there is no prey to devour. The former governor and minister is intensifying mobilization. Crowds at rallies are uncritically confused with huge popularity and perceived as an expansion of the coast.

    Cracks have appeared on the wall, which are not easy to mend. The loyal deputy leader of the ‘Omoluabi Progressives,’ Alhaji Moshood Adeoti of Iwo, twice dumped by the leader, left the group in anger this week. His grouse is that the caucus may not endorse his governorship ambition. His next line of action is unknown.

    Adeoti, an experienced grassroots actor, suffered bruises as Alliance for Democracy (AD)/Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) state chairman. He saw the handwriting on the wall but could not decipher it. He may not be as soft as Dr. Najeem Salam, a former Speaker from Ejigbo, if power lands on his palm.

    If the calculations of the political parties do not change, then eyes are on Adeleke of Accord, or any party he may adopt; Oyebamiji of APC and Salam of ADC to weather the storms of the primaries. Even then, only one man will become the governor next year.

  • What path to elite consensus?

    What path to elite consensus?

    So alarming and concerning did this column perceive President Donald Trump’s recent threat to invade Nigeria militarily to check what he described as ‘Christian genocide’ that, over the last three weeks, we have examined diverse dimensions of this warning and its implications. Our central contention has been that this undisguised threatened violation of Nigeria’s sovereignty constitutes not just a danger to the incumbent administration of President Bola Tinubu but an indictment of Nigeria’s ruling class as a whole. Those members of the political elite, who thus gloat over Trump’s categorisation of Nigeria as a ‘now failed’ State and feel surreptitious vindication by the American leader’s contemptuous disdain for Nigeria, are as much an object of his scorn and ridicule as those in power at the centre today on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    It is instructive that over the last week in the United States, there have been incidents of fatal attacks on innocent citizens by trigger-happy gunmen, resulting in several deaths. One of such killings took place in the vicinity of the White House, leading to the death of at least one National Guard officer and another being injured. In another instance in California, four school children were said to have died in a mass shooting at a child’s birthday party, with several others suffering from various degrees of injuries. Such tragedies have become routine in America where deaths from senseless mass shootings have become endemic. But such failings do not justify the overgeneralized categorisation of that country as a ‘now failed’ State.

    In the same vein, Nigeria’s challenges with insecurity do not necessitate its being depicted in derogatory and pejorative terms. This is particularly so as the accusation of ‘Christian genocide’ in Nigeria completely misses the mark and successive Nigerian governments have not been indifferent or insensitive to the need to tackle the assorted acts of insurgency threatening the country’s territorial integrity and cohesion. It is instructive that various Nigerian groups and individuals in the diaspora actively peddled the propaganda of ‘Christian genocide’ in the country, which President Trump and other far-right Republican ideologues enthusiastically bought into. The harm which disaffected members of the political elite can inflict, directly or indirectly, on their own country reinforces the imperative of forging a viable and enduring elite consensus as a necessary condition for national stability, peace and progress.

    Incidentally, America today also suffers from the plague of a lack of elite consensus. The greatest military and economic power on earth today, despite evident signs of a gradual weakening, is described in the media, academia and other platforms of public discourse in that country as a badly divided society torn right through the middle between the liberals and the more conservative Republicans. Indeed, the degree of polarisation in America may be far deeper than the variant of elite fractiousness in Nigeria as is evident in the bitterness of recent electoral contestations in that country with President Trump instigating an insurrection at the Capitol, a symbol of American democracy, protesting his loss in the 2020 presidential election, which he described as a fraud.

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    However, America has the advantage of strong and resilient institutions capable of safeguarding democratic tenets, principles and values, particularly through Judicial intervention, as is the case during Trump’s ongoing second term, when he has stretched the constitutional limits of Presidential powers to their utmost bounds. So far, various courts at the lower levels have blocked the Trump administration’s policy idiosyncrasies and acts of executive over-reach even though he has generally had his way on appeal at the Supreme Court, where he succeeded in getting a majority of conservative judges appointed during his first term. Yet, this has not prompted anyone to label America as a ‘now failed’ State, nor have aspersions been hurled at judges who understandably base their Judicial decisions on facts before them, interpreted within the context of their worldviews and value-orientation.

    But the central point of this piece is the urgent imperative for the political elite in Nigeria to forge the necessary class consensus across political party, ethnic, regional and religious divides without which there cannot be any basis for stability, peace, progress and development. This does not mean that the various factions, factions and tendencies of the Nigerian elite should forget their differences and create an artificial and unnatural commonality. That would be the perfect recipe for a one-party State, which would be detrimental to the continuous nurturing and consolidation of a genuine democratic order, which is a necessary condition for economic development and national cohesion. Rather, forging an elite consensus involves members of the elite recognising their differences and identifying those areas where they must work in unison and accommodate each other, even while vigorously maintaining their differences as regards ideological orientation, policy articulation and philosophical disposition or worldview.

    One area of critical importance for cultivating viable elite consensus among the various factions and tendencies that constitute Nigeria’s ruling class is reaching a common agreement on the indispensability of a transparent, credible and efficient electoral process as a cardinal element of an inclusive democratic system. This implies that both elected officials and their ruling parties, as well as those in opposition, develop a common commitment to the sustenance of democracy. Those who lose elections will not clamour for military intervention or external invasion because of their disenchantment with electoral outcomes while those in power will not undermine or render the opposition ineffective. The elite in power and those in opposition are two sides of a coin that are both critical to the sustenance and continuous development of democracy.

    But then, those in opposition cannot expect the party in government to enforce cohesion within their ranks or help them to devise political strategies to strengthen their parties. That is a responsibility they must undertake on their own. Thus, the continued lamentations of leading opposition politicians on the plight of their parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), which they blame on deliberate destabilization by the ruling APC, is unnecessary and unproductive. There is absolutely no basis for former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, to have deserted the PDP with his supporters for the emergent All Democratic Congress (ADC), all in a quest for a platform on which to contest the next presidential election. In further bifurcating the PDP, which already has roots in all 774 Local Government Areas across the country as well as the 8,809 Registration Areas/Wards, Atiku has weakened the possibility of a stronger, more viable opposition arising to effectively challenge the APC at the 2027 polls.

    The ADC is still largely inchoate and is unlikely to become a political machine capable of effectively challenging for power at the centre come 2027. It will also be recalled that it was Atiku ‘s intransigent refusal to allow the PDP national championship to revert to the South after his emergence as presidential candidate of the party in 2023, in violation of its zoning principle, that provided for rotation of power between the North and the South, created the grounds for the fragmentation of the PDP, its loss in the 2024 election and it’s unfolding catastrophic implosion. Indeed, the concession of the presidential tickets of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) in alliance with the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the PDP to the Southwest in 1999, to compensate the Yoruba for the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won by Chief MKO Abiola is the kind of elite consensus necessary to stabilize democratic governance to promote economic progress and political stability in Nigeria.

    In the case of Mr Peter Obi, he has proven to be utterly clueless in resolving the protracted crisis in which the LP has been immersed. Surprisingly, even his running mate in the 2023 presidential election, Mr Datti-Ahmed, appears to have deserted his erstwhile boss and aligned with a different faction of the LP. Part of the problem is that Obi, just like Atiku, is more interested in finding a platform to actualize his presidential ambition rather than helping to build a solid opposition front irrespective of whether or not he emerges as the presidential candidate. With this kind of individualistic approach by these key opposition leaders, it is unlikely that they can build a formidable front to meaningfully challenge the ruling party for power at the centre in 2027.

    Another area where there must be a consensus on the part of Nigeria’s political elite is the need to join hands across partisan divides to fight the deep-seated and long-standing endemic poverty and grossly unjust inequality that are at the root of Nigeria’s current chronic insecurity challenge. This will entail elite unanimity on fighting the industrial -scale corruption that pervades our national life such that humongous funds criminally diverted into private pockets can be made available to boost food production, provide affordable but qualitative healthcare, generate jobs for millions of our youth, improve access to qualitative education and properly as well a  equip and motivate our security agencies in the ongoing do-or-die struggle against diverse forms of terror against the Nigerian State.

  • Insurance policy, please

    Insurance policy, please

    Some unthinkable things happen in the administration of sports in Nigeria. One of such is the reported neglect of Ola Aina to treat himself for an injury he sustained playing for the country. Aina is threatening to dump the country in future international competitions over the shabby manner in which the NFF’s and indeed the NSC’s leadership abandoned him to his fate to treat his injury.

    Aina, in his report stated categorically that his English Premier League club, Nottingham Forest FC of England underwrote his medical expenses from the time he underwent a successful surgery till his current recuperating condition. Indeed Nottingham Forest FC’s Manager told the international media in a pre-match interview on Monday night that he is expecting Aina back in the team’s training session next year. Is this writer shocked by what has befallen Aina? Certainly not.

    The NFF and indeed the NSC showboating attitude to the players’ welfare is legendary, so much so that there is a lack the trust and confidence in these two bodies whenever they make promises to change for an improvement in subsequent tournaments. In fact, the players have had to down tools to get their entitlements, the last of such shows of shame happened in Morocco, mid-November during the CAF Playoffs where Nigeria was edged out of the 2026 World Cup on penalties by DR. Congo.

    Aina’s outcry and threat not to honour Nigeria’s invitations raises the poser if our sportsmen and women have serious and binding insurance policies, for instance? I’m not an insurance broker, so permit me to ask our sports chieftains if indeed our athletes have insurance policies which can be accessed, especially in situations like the one Aina found himself. Reading Aina’s comments rightfully suggested that the immensely talented defender was asking for some form of compensation. This is a legitimate request.

    Otherwise, on what premise is Chelle or any of our football or sports chieftains expecting Aina to join the Nigeria side in camp, ahead of the 2025 AFCON matches in Morocco? To whom much is given, so much more is expected. We need to prioritise our athletes’ welfare packages because there can’t be sports administrators without the athletes who win the laurels.  The reason foreign clubs get our players’ support on the thorny club versus county imbroglio.

    Yes, NFF President visited Aina after Nigeria’s ouster from the 2026 World Cup, but that visit was more to ameliorate the setting which the defender complained about. Curiously, in this drama was the story that Chelle was waiting to find out if Aina and Agu would be fit for AFCON. The question would be what happened with the talk of Chelle being in close contact with our players, so much so that he presented a 55-man squad for Nigeria, although another story claimed he has his 28-man squad ready for submission to beat the December 10 deadline set by CAF.

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    Chelle has picked Aina and Agu while his submission that he got assurances from the players that they will be fit hence his decision to include them in his squad remains to be seen – although he is also aware that they might also not make it.

    His explanation was taken by the NFF technical committee, with Chelle also saying that the doubts over the availability of one of the duo, was why he handed a first time call up to young LASK defender Emmanuel Michael.

    According to Chelle: ‘’Michael will serve as a cover for the two senior left backs in the team in Zaidu Sanusi and Bruno Onyemaechi respectively.”

    However, if Aina walks his talk of not honouring Nigeria’s matches, Chelle’s headache would be worrisome since Fredrick is also out of AFCON with a very serious hamstring injury while Aina’s manager stated that he would be back in January.

    Chelle appears to have learned a few lessons from the ill-fated 2026 World Cup qualification series with his choice of players. Unfortunately, FIFA has inadvertently thrown spanner in the works of coaches like Chelle who are thinking of rebuilding the Super Eagles, using younger players.

    FIFA chiefs in their argument published on Thursday morning said: ‘’Clubs will only be obliged to release players for the Africa Cup of Nations from December 15 – a week later than the standard international window – following a decision by FIFA on Wednesday in Zurich.”

    ”FIFA said the shortened release period, the same approach used for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, was agreed after consultations with the Confederation of African Football (CAF) and other stakeholders to “reduce the impact on various parties”, without elaborating.

    ‘’The 2025 window of the men’s UEFA Champions League runs until December 10. The governing body added that national federations and clubs involved in continental tournaments over the release period are being encouraged to hold bilateral talks to agree “appropriate individual solutions” where scheduling conflicts arise.”

    Countries going to Morocco for AFCON have been given the shortest part of the stick, like Nigeria which are eager to pacify their citizens by lifting the AFCON trophy like they did in South Africa in 2013. The African Nations Cup will run from December 21, 2025 to January 18, 2026, leaving national teams less than a week to prepare once all players are available, in what is likely to be another logistical challenge for coaches and organisers at the continent’s flagship international competition.

    Thumbs up to William Troost Ekong for announcing his retirement from international duties on Thursday, drawing international applause for knowing when to quit the game which brought him fame, opulence and wealth.

    According to Troost-Ekong:  “None of this would have been possible without the people around me. To every coach, member of staff, and most importantly, my teammates, past and present who have been part of my international journey, thank you!”

    “To the Nigerian fans—the heartbeat of Nigerian football. Your support has carried me through every high and every challenge. I will stand with you as you stood with me.

    “This isn’t a final goodbye. My work within Nigerian communities continues, just as my love and passion for this team will never fade. ‘’

    One only hopes that the rebuilding exercise of our national teams is enduring. Only the best should be selected. Our national teams have lost the fear factor such that hitherto soccer minors now beat Nigeria in competitions. Our sportsmen and women should always be rewarded after each feat.

    It is true that there is a global recession. But the spiral effect of rewarding our athletes is unquantifiable when they move from amateurs to professionals. A handsome reward in cash and kind will reinvigorate the desire of most sceptic parents to allow their kids earn a living as sportsmen and women.

    Indeed, athletes who win laurels for Nigeria are children of the hewers of woods and drawers of water. In fact, every time these kids sneak out to do sports, they return home to be flogged and at other times denied their meals to serve as deterrent to other kids who would want to toe their path. Some of these parents beat their children because they want them to be educated. They always point at their relations and neighbours whose kids are educated and doing very well in society. They want to produce as many graduates as they can afford to send to school, not sportsmen and women whose life span in the industry is between one year and 10, barring any injuries.

    For some other parents, its boundless joy if their kids sneak out for games. It means fewer people to cater for when the meals are ready. Of course, these lads are not bothered. Their target is to get recognition from clubs or national teams’ scouts, which they know will open a new vista in their lives.

  • Insecurity: Again, how did we get to this pass? (2)

    Insecurity: Again, how did we get to this pass? (2)

    A school of thought contends that Nigeria’s current crisis is rooted in three interrelated factors: the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, the expansion of Sharia law in several Northern States, and the abandonment of Sir Ahmadu Bello’s vision of a secular penal code. Proponents argue that this shift coincided with a period in which some strands of international Islam turned towards militancy. A good example was the emergence of Osama bin Laden and the broader “war on terror” that reshaped global alliances.

    This school of thought, which includes figures like Ayo Osunloye, also points to the perceived alignment of NATO members with Israel’s policies towards Arab and Muslim peoples. They suggest that such external dynamics have reverberated within Nigeria’s borders. According to this view, the 1999 Constitution imposed a largely unitary system that concentrates power at the centre.

    =Furthermore, they argue that the dominance of a particular religious and ethnic bloc in government, the weakening of independent intelligence institutions, and the absence of egalitarian principles have further eroded the social contract. The result, they say, is a cascade of symptoms – insurgency, poverty, religious intolerance, ethnic oppression, and discrimination – that have failed to – and cannot – be solved by security measures alone.

    The tragedy of our situation is a complex one, as it finds expression in the failure to address key allegations, such as the “clear sabotage” claim raised by Governor Bello Idris of Kebbi State regarding the Maga matter. This silence forces a deeper question: Are we content to remain paralyzed by inaction?

    Well, those whose flexible heels have been oiled by the speculative notion that Donald Trump’s ultimate interest was Nigeria’s oil exhibited their hypocrisy by overlooking the fact that our country was a disaster waiting to happen. Trump, in fact, merely drew attention to the calm before an inevitable storm. Had Nigeria acted with the required political will years ago, we would have already tackled the social miasma currently threatening the national fabric. Now that the consequences have materialized, the focus must shift entirely to domestic defense and reform, not to seeking external saviours or breeding scapegoats.

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    In his Farewell Address on January 17, 1961, former President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned against the military-industrial complex – the immense, intertwined power of the defense industry and the military establishment. Eisenhower cautioned that its unwarranted influence could threaten democratic processes and liberties. He urged an alert and knowledgeable citizenry to maintain balance between security and freedom.

    After Eisenhower’s speech, John F. Kennedy, who succeeded him, decided that the only way the country could have an effective Defence budget was to bring in Robert McNamara from Ford Motors as Secretary of Defence. McNamara was not a General in the American Army, but he was one of the best managers of his generation. At that time, leaving Ford Motors as President/CEO to become the Secretary of Defence (a post he held from 1961 to 1968) was a pay cut of around 99%. But McNamara accepted the offer. 

    Remember also General Sir Frank Kitson, formerly the Commander-in-Chief, UK Land Forces, who authored the influential book, Low Intensity Operations. This work details the complexities of guerrilla warfare and describes the various functions the British Army employed to contain insurgencies in different theaters. Because of its practical insights, the book is strongly recommended reading for Ministers Christopher Musa and Bello Matawalle, and, indeed, the entire rank and file of the Nigerian Defence Forces.

    A lasting solution, Nigerians argue, requires a new constitution that guarantees equal citizenship regardless of religion or ethnicity and that fully embodies federalism – not in garb but in reality; both in letter and in practice. Such a framework, they claim, would address the underlying structural imbalances rather than merely treating the outward manifestations of the crisis. Even at that, the nation must seek, first, superior strategic thinking to manage the ongoing security crisis.

    ● Concluded.

  • Adewole: New Diocesan, New Diocese

    Adewole: New Diocesan, New Diocese

    On Thursday, September 18, 2025, at the Cathedral Church of Emmanuel in Okesa, Ado Ekiti, the Standing Committee Meeting of the Anglican Communion elected the Ven. (Dr.) Ebenezer Ajayi Adewole as the pioneering Bishop of the new Diocese of Lagos South West, with his seat at the Cathedral Church of the Pentecost, FESTAC, Lagos.

    Adewole was one of the fifteen newly elected bishops. He was consecrated on November 9, 2025, at the Cathedral Church of the Advent in Life Camp, Abuja, while he and the new Diocese were inaugurated and enthroned, respectively, on November 25, 2025, in the new Cathedral.

    A total of fifteen new Dioceses were created – five full Dioceses and ten Missionary Dioceses. With the latest addition, the Lagos metropolis now has six Anglican Dioceses, with Badagry and Ota Awori joining the existing ones. Nationwide, the Church of Nigeria’s total has risen to 176 Dioceses after the recent 15 Diocese expansion.

    The Diocese of Lagos was created in 1919; Lagos West, in 1999; Lagos Mainland, in 2006; and Lagos South West, in 2025. The new Diocese comprises the FESTAC, Amuwo-Odofin, and Iba Archdeaconries, with a total of twenty six churches. Crucially, the Diocese covers a fast and densely populated area with significant land allocated for further church expansion.

    Having been spiritually empowered, Adewole has since rolled out his vision and mission statements for the new Diocese. This vision is deeply rooted in the mandate to spread the faith and the promise of divine guidance, aligning with Jesus’ command that “we are called to be witnesses, starting from our own community and extending to the ends of the earth.”

    To fulfill this mandate, his mission outlines a comprehensive strategy focusing on how the Diocese intends to execute this vision. Beginning right within the Diocese itself, the strategy focuses on four key areas of ministry: Proclaiming the Gospel of Christ, Aggressive Discipleship, Growing and Empowering Church Sub-Groups, and Engagement with the Government at all Levels.

    Immediately following his enthronement, Bishop Adewole appointed Barrister Mrs. Modupe Akinwande, who previously chaired the Proposed Diocese Implementation Committee, as the new Diocese’s Chancellor.

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    Born in Kano on October 12, 1971, to parents of Ondo origin, Adewole has dedicated his life to service. He was made a Deacon in 2001 and ordained a priest a year later. He served curacy in Ifon-Osun before his brief transfer to Ekusa in Osun State.

    By 2003, his ministry started gaining recognition for its revival, spiritual depth and pastoral care, which took him to All Saints’ Cathedral, Osogbo, and eventually, to the demanding Diocese of Lagos West, Lagos. There, he worked tirelessly, first at St. John’s (the Evangelist) Church, Akowonjo.

    His commitment earned him the appointment as Administrator of Satellite Archdeaconry and Vicar of St. John’s Church, Satellite Town, under the See of the Rt. Rev’d (Dr.) James Odedeji. Following a brief stint as the Archdeacon of Opebi Archdeaconry, he became the Dean of the prestigious Archbishop Vining Church Cathedral, G.R.A., Ikeja, Lagos. He served in this capacity until his eventual election as Bishop of the Diocese of Lagos South West.

    He is married to Dr. (Mrs.) Mercy Folasade, and their marriage is blessed with children.

    A stalwart of spiritual and community life, Adewole has been doing a stellar job not only in the upliftment of souls spiritually and mentally but also in getting them to be enthusiastic about community living and contributions. It is important to state that the congregation has been enamoured of his activities.

    May the Stone of Israel grant the Rt. Rev’d Ebenezer Ajayi Adewole the courage to lead, the discernment to govern, and the humility to serve!

    May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

    • Email: ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk. Mobile: 08033614419 SMS only.

  • Time to fish out the non-Fulani bandits in our midst

    Time to fish out the non-Fulani bandits in our midst

    Nothing can be more cheering than the news that after the initial dust raised by President Donald Trump’s threat to invade Nigeria with American soldiers gun-a-blazing, the United States of America is willing and ready to work with the Nigerian government in the effort to rid our country of Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits and other terrorist groups responsible for the unrest and disorder that have been the lot of the country in recent times. Trump’s threat had been hinged on the belief that the killings, kidnappings and other violent acts in the country were targeted at the Christian population. But after days of dialogue between the leadership of the security agencies of the two countries, President Trump and America appear now persuaded, if not convinced, that the entire population is at the mercy of bandits and Islamist groups.

    The widely held belief before now was that the killings and kidnappings around the country were being perpetrated exclusively by a particular ethnic group, namely the Fulani. Recent indications, however, are to the effect that any genuine hunt for the perpetrators of these violent acts must not overlook the reality of internal collaborators in the various communities where the killings and kidnappings are taking place. For instance, from the Okun (Yoruba) part of Kogi State, which has lately become a hot spot for the evil practices, I have grown weary of complaints by concerned residents that many of their young men and women are now actively involved in the malady.

    Worried callers from the affected communities have hinted at least three incidents in recent times, which would convince any doubting Thomas that banditry is no longer an exclusive activity of a particular tribe or ethnic group. The first concerns the alleged killing of a young woman alongside suspected kidnappers by security agents who were combing one of the Kogi bushes believed to harbour bandits and kidnappers. Strangely, the death of the young woman was said to have attracted even a scintilla of sympathy for the slain woman or her family because it was generally believed that she met her Waterloo in the process of supplying food to bandits in their camp.

    In another suspicious development, a pastor based in Ayetoro-Gbede, an Okun (Yoruba) community in Ijumu Local Government Area, was said to have been abducted together with his Lagos-based wife, who had come on a visit. But while the couple was kidnapped around Ayere, their abductors directed that the N21 million raised for them as ransom should be kept at a particular spot in Ayetoro-Gbede, where the pastor was based and which is more than 50km away from the place where they were abducted.

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    In yet the third and most intriguing proof, a young man abducted with 17 other travellers around Oshokoshoko, a community between Kabba and Obajana where Dangote has a cement plant, managed to escape after two horror-filled days of a long trek through bushes and rivers, and finally found himself in Kabba town where he met three men chatting and decided to share his experience with them. But to his utter shock, one of the men, oblivious that the escapee understood enough Yoruba to know what he was talking about, picked up his phone and started asking the person at the other end why they allowed one of their abductees to escape!

    “He spoke in their local dialect. But even though I am an indigene of Benue State, I understand enough Yoruba to get what he was saying. It immediately occurred to me that the people I was telling my story to were part of the kidnapping ring. I told them I wanted to urinate and seized that chance to escape,” the young man said in a viral video.

    Before now, there had been testimonies by some victims of kidnapping in Yoruba land that their abductors were not Fulani but fellow Yoruba who were dressed like Fulani men. As far back as 2021, Suleiman Akinbami, an oil dealer abducted by kidnappers in Ekiti State, told newsmen after regaining his freedom with payment of an undisclosed sum as ransom, that his abductors were either Yoruba or they had lived long enough in Yoruba land to speak the Yoruba language with such fluency and grace.

    Akinbami said, “They spoke good Yoruba and good English. I want to believe that they have been in Yoruba land for a long time, if they are not Yoruba. They spoke good Yoruba. They spoke good English as well. They claimed to be jobless graduates.”

    The foregoing merely underscores the point that has been made by security experts for years: that security issues are not the exclusive preserve of security agents. Whether we know it or not, it is everybody’s business. We abandon the responsibility to security agents only at our own peril. Kidnappers are not spirits. They have kith and kin and live among people. The onus is on the members of the communities where they live to raise the alarm once they suspect their ways are short of the expectations of honest or upright people.

  • The North governors’ security meeting

    The North governors’ security meeting

    There is need for Action:

    The meeting convened by the northern governors of Nigeria, along with the northern traditional leaders, which took place in Kaduna a couple of days ago, in my opinion, is one meeting too many, without much action and impacts. Such security meetings have taken place in northern Nigeria and other parts of Nigeria repeatedly over the past years especially in the last two years. However, there have been the lack of effective follow-up actions due to lack of a well articulated, coherent and well mapped out strategy with action plans and timely executions and achievement of tangible milestones over the months or years. If steps and quick actions are not taken, northern Nigeria will continue to lose territories within Nigeria to this multidimensional insecurity, or rather to the hands of Islamic fundamentalist, bandits kidnapped, and Fulani herdsmen, etc.

    We have gotten to a point that only decisive actions by leaders will save the this Country. It is only sincerity and unity of purpose that will help us. Playing politics with insecurity is another factor that has further added oxygen to this situation. Insurgency started during the time of the PDP government over 15 years ago. It escalated during the APC government so no politicians should come and be selling us dummies here. We should collectively take responsibility and collectively face our realities. We must change not just the narrative, but we must also change the reality to what it should be. Everyday people are being killed. Everyday excuses are being given. While some of us are throwing parties and throwing money around having parties while people are being killed. So enough with the rhetoric and theatrics and the “dog and pony” shows. It’s time for action. Otherwise, external parties will come and do it for us.

    We can have as much security summits and conferences as we want. If we don not recognize the criticality of time on these multidimensional issues, and address them, things will continue to go worse.

    Dealing with insecurity remains a critical success factor, otherwise no amount of intervention will be successful and sustainab

    Regarding the stoppage of mining:

    Suspension or stoppage of legal mining will not not solve the problem. Illegal mining has been taking place for a very long time. I particularly know for a fact that illegal mining has been taking place in northern Nigeria for nothing less than 30 years. Therefore, stopping legal mining is not the solution. But dealing with the illegal mining that is taking place sometimes with the collusion of state actors, that we all know about. The preponderance of illegal mining all over northern Nigeria is so deep that it has become an enterprise. So fighting illegal mining is a project on its own that the governors and the federal government under the leadership of President Tinubu should address as one of the critical pillars of success of the fight against national insecurity and economic sabotage that we are facing in Nigeria today.

    However, legal mining should be addressed from a strategic point of view. Blanket  blanket statement against mining will only exacerbate the issue. Governments at federal and state level have attracted foreign direct investments to activate and boost our solid minerals sector which is a key economic diversification pipeline. Because mining is a capital intensive and long term investment, it will certainly be a strategic mistake and counter productive to suspend legal mining. If we suspend legal mining ipso facto, it will impact the entire business plan, and the strategic objective of the mining. In addition, there could be potential breach of the between government and investors. These will ultimately erode investor confidence and destroy the gains made and hinder the socio-economic objectives from being achieved.

    Closure of schools is not a solution:

    With  profound respect to Governments at state and federal levels will only be a palliative intervention but not a solution.  Rather than impulsive reactions, we should have a short mid to long time plan with regards to stopping the abduction of school children, attacks on schools, mosquitoe, churches and market places, etc. We should have answers to the attack on schools, the attacks on hospitals, the attacks on marketplaces and possibly bus stations. We should also have an action plan for potential attacks on other high target areas like train stations, like airports, like high rising areas, including Lagos. So we have to be both strategic, tactical, and operational. We have to move from all sides and all angles.

    Moreover, moving resources and assets from one place to another will not is not going to help us. i.e., moving these 300,000 policemen around these issues or soldiers will not help our problem. You move them to a location. After two days, you pull them out and move them to another location. These people will come back and hit you with this guerrilla warfare system. You must have adequate man and material resources to man adequately the locations you are supposed to set up military formations at a location just because of this situation will not help us. We need to have a holistic approach as quick as possible.

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    The need for a war Situation Room:

    We need to have a war room situation where the National Security Advisor will coordinate  with the service chiefs. Unless and until we contain the insecurity by nothing less than 65%, we cannot think that we can win this war.

    The need to Upgrade and Recalibrate the Ministry of Interior:

    We also need to recalibrate the Ministry of Interior to build its capacity to face and tackle Nigeria’s growing internal insecurity and other threats and challenges. The Ministry of Interior’s job description, the Minister of Interior’s job description and the job description of the agencies under this Ministry of Interior must be upgraded with immediate effect. The Ministry of Interior, does not currently have the capacity and  latitude. For example, Post 911, the United States of America had to recalibrate the Department of Homeland Security to face new dangers, threats and risks. 

    Security Fund:

    Meanwhile, a lot of states in Northern Nigeria, are not doing what they are supposed to do. Therefore, how will setting up of this funding really alleviate the situation of our people? What is the objective is the Fund? What will the funding do? How will the funding be utilize? What will be the framework and the accountability process of this funding?

    It is no longer time for partisan politics with regards to insecurity. We need to deal with this issue. Insecurity and Terrorism do not care about religion, tribe, creed or ethnicity. So it is a problem, a common denominator issue. I did not hear about the solution for the out-of-school children. I did not hear a solution about our farmers that are left without protection. I did not hear the solution of our travelers traveling left, right and centre. I did not hear any plan.

    Non-Kinetic Imperatives:

    I do see a robust non-kinetic plan for alleviation of poverty and sustained fight against all  social vices. I did not hear anything about truth and reconciliation of people in areas and communities that are in conflicts. And how are we going to address frontally the farmer-herder issues over and beyond rhetorics and long-term objectives of Ministry of Livestock Development. We must have a short-term intervention for the farmers-harders . A lot of people that know me know that I have been speaking about this issues and saying the the farmers-herders issues date as far back as back as about 200 years ago. Therefore it a longstanding existential issue that must be addressed. The issues transcend ethnicity. Mining is not the only accelerant of banditry and insecurity. poverty,, strife, uncertainty, injustice, etc  also are also drivers and accelerants of insecurity. Let us not make the mistake of deflecting issues as we address this canker worm while we agree resources uh take over by the imperialists with the facade of the insurgency deep state with the support of deep state we not helped our matters by not delivering good governance good governance is a major accelerant as well out of school children. Governors should also own up their own responsibilities and do the needful i repeat do the needful.

    Good Governance:

    Citizens need to be feel the impacts that state governments are actually using the taxes collected and other revenue generated at federal and state levels to add value to the quality of life of citizens, add value to governance, and for the growth and development of Nigeria.