The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • Panic school closures

    Panic school closures

    Responding to the rash (or what grammarians call a deliberate concatenation) of abductions orchestrated to raise Nigeria’s political temperature to boiling point, the federal and some state governments have hastily shut down some of their schools. It was a panic measure evidently ill-conceived. In the estimation of the fidgeting governments, they would rather be safe than sorry. But what happens to uncovered syllabuses? Would students of those schools not be disadvantaged against their counterparts in schools with unbroken calendar? While states shut down fewer schools, the federal government shut down more than three dozen Unity Colleges. The immediate impact of those massive shutdowns was to send the populace reeling, as if the whole country was besieged and helpless.

    But beyond the shutdowns and the hysteria, the governments’ response sent an awkward message of impotence to the rest of the country and the world. At a time when boldness and risk-taking were in great demand, the governments had responded by retreating into their shells. It was a time to think on their feet, reason extraordinarily, quickly restructure their security systems, and make deployments capable of providing rapid response to abductions and attacks even in far-flung places. The question to ask is: should attacks continue instead of considerably abating, would the schools be kept on permanent shutdown? The holiday seasons are upon the country; it is, therefore, unclear whether the shut schools would be opened before the end of the year.

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    The governments had advanced warnings of school attacks and abductions, for these crimes never stopped in the first instance. There was really no concise and coherent plan to provide deterrence for schools susceptible to attacks. Hopefully, the right lessons have been learnt from the Kebbi and Niger States school attacks, not to say the foiled attack on a school in Kogi State. Instead of retreating endlessly and yielding ground to bandits and terrorists, it may be time to develop a powerful homegrown solution to tackle the crisis. 

  • PDP’s gaffe-prone factional chairman

    PDP’s gaffe-prone factional chairman

    After a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) unanimously affirmed him as national chairman, it took only a few days for Kabiru Turaki to kick-start his career as a gaffe machine of the most exquisite variety. Speaking in Abuja two Tuesdays ago when he led his ‘troops’ to forcibly repossess the party’s national headquarters, and had been tear-gassed in the process together with his ‘brigade commanders’, he shouted himself hoarse in the cause of, as he put it facetiously, democracy. Now, he has again put his foot in his mouth over what he believed was the Federal High Court, Abuja’s predisposition to truncate justice. At the rate he is going, especially given his fecundity, he will likely sustain a weekly production of gaffes until early next year when his faction will conduct their own PDP primaries.

    Former vice president Atiku Abubakar used to be the leading melodramatic politician in the elite category. Now, he clearly cannot hold a candle to Alhaji Turaki, a combative senior lawyer who is neither diplomatic nor conciliatory. How both would have fared had Alhaji Atiku not defected to the fringe African Democratic Congress (ADC) is unclear; but a fierce competition to determine who could run his mouth the wildest would probably have ensued. Well, that’s a moot point now. The former vice president has taken his talent for wild and fanciful summations to the ADC, and Alhaji Turaki has the coast cleared for him to calumniate as much as his lexical resources can carry him.

    On November 18, after inhaling a little teargas during the battle for the party headquarters, his wits addled, Alhaji Turaki cried out to probably the most undemocratic president in United States history to help save or restore Nigerian democracy. He was remorseless: “I want to call on President Trump to come and help save democracy in Nigeria. It is not only genocide against Christians that is happening. He should come and save democracy in Nigeria because democracy is under threat. I am calling on other developed nations to come and save democracy in Nigeria…I have said that we are willing to lay down our lives to protect our office, to protect our democracy and to protect our mandate. Nigerians, you are seeing what is happening. The international community, you are seeing the threat that Nigerian democracy is facing. Come and save us.” He ignored his Freudian slip of confirming Christian genocide in Nigeria and goes on to cry mournfully for help. That help will of course never come. The American president does not just resent democracy, he loathes it, and is fascinated by right-wing, authoritarian and even fascist leaders.

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    Alhaji Turaki’s gaffes sound eerily like morbid humour to most Nigerians. But to the PDP leader, it probably sounds like music. Roundly condemned and mocked for calling for help from the US, he nevertheless caused a letter to be written to the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Abuja, to complain of juridic bias against his party. According to him, a sinister coincidence pervades the administration of justice in the court, and a conspiracy in assigning PDP suits to generally a trio of judges hell bent on disinheriting the opposition party. Hear him: “My lord, it is of great concern to our Party that it would appear that all matters for the past few years filed in the Federal High Court, Abuja Judicial Division either for or against our Party have always been assigned to the following three Judges only, namely: Hon. Justice James Omotosho; Hon. Justice Peter Odo Lifu; Hon. Justice Abdulmalik. Even though there are other Judges numbering up to nine in the Abuja Judicial Division, who could have taken up any of these matters, as the Abuja Division has 12 Judges. Several of our Party members have recently complained bitterly to the newly elected members of the National Working Committee and the National Executive Committee of the above-mentioned scenario. Indeed, all these three Courts are viewed by party members and indeed the public as ‘courts of particular concern’ with regard to matters pertaining to or affecting the interest of the Peoples Democratic Party…”

    The court will respond to the allegations, but it is not clear whether a copy of that response will be circulated to the media, assuming the PDP does not leak it. But it is interesting that Alhaji Turaki punned the three suspected courts as ‘courts of particular concern’, an indication that the new factional chairman is simply fooling around with activism, perhaps his secret fantasy. It is also significant that while he talked about the coincidence of case assignment, he was less enthusiastic about talking about the jurisprudential exactitude of the suits his party repeatedly lost. For a factional party chairman who was accused of ignoring court judgements and engaging in forum shopping, it is indeed passing strange that he claims to be fighting for democracy and the rule of law, unfazed by his boyish invitation that opens the nation’s doors for disreputable outsiders to meddle in Nigerian affairs. When, sir, is your next gaffe due?

  • VIPs also cry

    VIPs also cry

    President Tinubu’s withdrawal of their police security men does not seem to go down well with them. But will the order stand this time?

    Last Sunday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ordered the withdrawal of police officers currently providing security for Very Important Persons (VIPs) in the country, to boost the number of personnel, as well as enable them concentrate on their core police duties.

    The directive was issued at the security meeting the president held with the Chief of Army Staff, Lt General Waidi Shaibu; the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke; the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun; and the Director-General of the Department of State Services (DSS), Tosin Adeola Ajayi, in Abuja.

    Henceforth, VIPs who want police protection will now request well-armed personnel from the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).

    Before the ink with which the presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, wrote his press release on the matter dried up, reports say some of the affected VIPs had been inundating police headquarters with calls seeking more clarifications over the development and expressing fears, based on the prevailing security situation in the country.

    The major concern of these VIPs is whether the NSCDC has the capacity to protect them, considering their training and requirements. “He (a VIP) told us that it will be like engaging Boys Scouts to protect them as the mobile policemen they normally engage are more agile and battle-ready to confront any situation.”

    Another VIP told Vanguard: “The practice of providing police escorts to high ranking officers and VIP’s has become a major feature of the security landscape in Nigeria, but it must be noted that as the country grapples with growing security concerns, the use of police personnel for VIP protection has raised significant questions about its broader implications on public safety and the overall effectiveness of the police force.”

    This VIP would even seem more considerate, considering the attempt he made to strike a balance between public safety and individual safety. So, rather than the blanket ban or withdrawal that could lead to increase in the prevailing fears of insecurity, he called for rationalisation of the exercise.

     “The justification behind this practice often rests on the high-profile nature of individuals involved, the perceived threat to their safety, and the desire to project power and influence.

    ”While these measures are meant to offer security for influential figures, the broader implication is that they come at a high cost to the public, both in terms of the security resources diverted and the moral perception of a system that favours the few over the many,” he said.

    Fair argument, if you ask me.

    But, we should have expected the big people affected by the directive to react the way some of them did. Nigeria’s big men do not want to lose any privilege. After all, this is not the first time that such order for the withdrawal of policemen serving VIPs would be made. In the last 20 years or so, there has not been an inspector-general of police that did not issue such directive.

    As far back as 2003, the then IGP, Mustafa Adebayo Balogun initiated one of the earliest major attempts to withdraw police orderlies from judicial officers and politicians nationwide, essentially to  prevent abuse of the police officers.

    Ogbonnaya Onovo, who succeeded Balogun, in August 2009 issued a sweeping order mandating all police personnel serving as private orderlies to return to their bases. This directive extended to former heads of state, ministers, legislators, and governors. Onovo gave a seven-day deadline for the order to be complied with. He said he was disturbed by the degradation of police professionalism caused by officers performing menial tasks such as carrying handbags or opening doors for VIPs. As at that time, there were 100,000 such policemen attached to the VIPs.

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    Then Hafiz Ringim, who succeeded Onovo. He reinforced the withdrawal policy by cautioning officers guarding unauthorised individuals to return to their commands or face arrest and prosecution. To underscore his seriousness on the issue, he established a special monitoring unit to ensure adherence to the directive, signalling a more rigorous enforcement approach.

    Then Mohammed Abubakar, Solomon Arase,  Ibrahim Idris, Mohammed Adamu, Usman Alkali Baba, and Kayode Egbetokun, the incumbent Inspector-General of Police who had also repeated the same ritual. That it had to take President Tinubu to personally make the order this time around means that he also appreciated the need for such an order to come from the seat of power.

    The thing is; in all the cases, the big people have always complained and their police security men restored. 

    So, I saw the silence-enough-to-be heard protest coming. I knew that the big men would kick against the presidential order even before the ink used to pen the press release on it dried up. Nigeria’s big men do not want to lose any privilege, no matter how obnoxious. And they have a surfeit of them. Otherwise, how do you explain that in a country of over 220 million citizens being served by about 370,000 policemen, more than a third of the number was allocated to VIPs?

    Are such people fair to Nigerians? Do they have two heads? And are the other Nigerians who had to be deprived so the VIPs could breathe not entitled to police protection? Is it not the same one life that the VIPs have that the ordinary Nigerians too have? 

    Although some would make the point that it is not all about numbers; but numbers also matter. Freeing a whopping 100,000 policemen to complement those on the field should definitely make some impact on the terrible security situation in the country. The United States, for instance, protects its 341 million population with about 750,000-strong law enforcement officers. This is an average of one policeman to about 455 persons.

    Nigeria’s population is about 232.6 million and it is being served by about 270,000 policemen (less the 100,000 others assigned as security to VIPs). This is a ratio of about 1:859 persons. With this, it is clear that Nigeria is disadvantaged and underserved in virtually every policing index unlike the U.S. that has the advantage of technology to leverage in terms of internal security. So, if we are able to free about 100,000 policemen to join the 270,000 that are presently doing strictly policing, the ratio would increase to 1: 600. Other things being equal, this should reflect in effectiveness and efficiency.

    The fact of the matter is that, in Nigeria, virtually everything under the sun is a status symbol. I remember when the global system for mobile (GSM) communication phones came into the country in 2001, you would see some of our big men trying to pause one call for another in the open, to show off the number of telephones they owned, courtesy of GSM. Some of them even engaged personal assistants essentially for the purpose of carrying the phones for them. GSM telephones then were status symbols.

    When we see policemen guiding many of our VIPs, we know it is not only about security; it is also a status symbol. It is something to let the community know that one has arrived, or that levels have changed. That is not all. Many at times, some of these policemen help their new ‘masters’ fight personal battles, that is when they are not turned to errand boys by not only ‘oga at the top’, but ,madam at the bottom,, and the kids as well.

    And they do these errand boy jobs even better and gladly than the professionals because of the extra bucks that such jobs fetch them. Obviously, their miserable take-home pay cannot take them home. 

    For Nigeria, this is not the best of times to over-pamper a select few at the expense of the generality of the people. The country is at war with terrorists and we need all hands on deck to win the war.

    So, am I now saying that some Nigerians do not deserve extra protection even by the very nature of their public assignments? NO! For most rules, there are exceptions. We cannot say, for example, that our judges should be left to their own devices. There are other categories of public officials who require police protection; they should be accorded the privilege. Others may, as the president rightly suggested, look toward the NSCDC for cover.

    But, the government should work out, on a sustainable basis, the number of policemen to recruit annually to reduce the manpower shortage in the force. The then President Olusegun Obasanjo had in 2000 ordered the police force to begin an annual recruitment of some 40,000 men for four years to bridge the gap. I do not know if this was followed throughout his eight years in office, and even subsequently. This cannot be the spirit in a country with serious security situation like ours. The recruitment and training should be regular and sustained until such a time when we know that we already have enough or close to enough.

    The fact is: we have been too lackadaisical about security. That explains why we could have abandoned the police force for so long. Now that we are facing the stark reality of that neglect, the very people who should have done something about the situation are the ones crying for special protection; a thing that had always blinded them to the reality on ground. What I am saying is that our big men, particularly those who are in position to make a difference to our lives should not continue to live in the illusion that all is well when that is far from being correct. When they are given police protection, they cannot understand when the hoi polloi say there is insecurity in the land. I learnt many politicians of northern extraction cannot go to their towns and villages due to insecurity. When they also have a feel of what the ordinary people see and feel daily on insecurity, they would realise the mistake they have made over the decades by leaving the country under-policed. And not only under-policed, but under-paid, poorly kitted, ill-trained, ill-accommodated and ill-motivated. All the ‘ills’ are present in the Nigeria Police Force! We must be prepared to address them if we are to sleep with our two eyes closed.

    It is ungodly and inhuman for a country that is battling terrorism, mass abductions and violent crimes to reserve 100,000 policemen to protect probably less than 250,000 Nigerians while 270,000 others are protecting the majority 230 million. It is absolutely absurd.

    What, in my view, the president can do is try to give a three-month period within which to allow for the training of the NSCDC personnel that would take over VIP protection from the police. Henceforth, VIP protection should be a permanent feature of their training.

    Then the salaries of all the security personnel must be reviewed, as well as their condition of service, to make their job attractive and enhance their performance. 

    This would appear the first time that such directive on police withdrawal from VIPs would be coming from an incumbent president. That being the case, it is expected that there should be a difference in implementation this time around. Normally, when a president speaks, it is like an oracle has spoken and I believe President Tinubu understands this.

    Meanwhile, where is State Police in all of these?

  • Celebrating peace amidst threatening war

    Celebrating peace amidst threatening war

    Trying times are moments for a nation’s intellectuals to show their mettle. Nigeria is in one of those times now with respect to insecurity, and our intellectuals are proving their worth. For example, from 24 to 28 November, 2025, the Society for Peace Studies and Practice (SPSP) held its 19th International Annual Conference at the University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State. The conference theme was “Economic Challenges and the Tasks of Building Sustainable Peace in a Globalised World,” and the conference consisted of the society’s General Assembly and the Investiture of Fellows.

    Mr. Nathaniel M. Awuapila is the President of the society and Dr.  Olanrewaju L. Yusuf is the Secretary-General.  Professor Suleiman Elias Bogoro, the former Executive Secretary of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund), is the Chair of the Board of Trustees, whilst Ambassador Fatima Sa’ad Abubakar is the Acting Chair of the Board of Fellows. Moreover, Professor Isaac Albert was the Host of the conference, and Professor K.O. Adebowale, the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Ibadan, was the Chief Host. Dr. Ozonnia Ojielo (United Nations Resident Coordinator in Rwanda) and General Christopher G. Musa, Rtd. (Former Chief of Defence Staff) were the Keynote Speakers.

    SPSP, which has as its motto “Peace to Humanity,” is a renowned professional body committed to advancing peace, conflict resolution, and security studies in Nigeria and far beyond. The society was born out of the increasing occurrence of violent conflicts, ethnic tensions, and security challenges in Nigeria and the need for research-driven interventions by and collaboration among stakeholders. Since its inception in the Peace and Conflict Studies Programme at the University of Ibadan around 2000, the society has played a pivotal role in advancing peace research, fostering academic and practical interventions, and building capacity among scholars, practitioners, and policymakers in and outside Nigeria.

    In celebration of the remarkable contributions of a selection of distinguished personalities to peace studies and practice, SPSP has awarded them the 2025 fellowships of the society. They include Chief Bisi Akande, former Governor of Osun State and former interim National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and current Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of the Governing Council of the University of Ibadan; CG Kemi Nanna Nnadap, the Controller-General of Nigerian Immigration Services; General Christopher G. Musa, Rtd.; Dr. Abiodun Essiet, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Community Engagement; Professor Olayinka Ramota Karim, Vice-Chancellor, Fountain University, Osogbo; and Professor Akinkunmi Adegbola Alao, former Director of the Institute of Cultural Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife; among other personages.

    With respect to the absence of peace in some parts of Nigeria at the moment, language has played a crucial role. Some Nigerians had invited the United States to intervene in the country to stop ‘genocide’ against Christians. To this request, United States President Donald Trump had condemned Nigeria and pledged to invade the country in an operation that would be “vicious, fast and sweet” to save “our cherished Christians.”

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    This raised the question, “What is genocide?” Answers to this question are as varied as the different interest groups in the country. A related question is “Is there genocide against Christians in Nigeria?” The answers to this question are as varied as the ones to the preceding question. One person who has been most viciously attacked on the basis of his perspective on the ‘Christian Genocide’ question is Governor Hyacinth Alia of Benue State who is a Catholic priest.

    In a 19 November, 2025 Punch newspapers video, in response to those questioning his credentials as a priest for saying that there was no genocide in Benue State, Governor Alia said: “I am a Reverend Father. So, being in government does not take that away from me. I am still a Reverend Father. I came in as a governor as a Reverend Father, I am working with the fear of God and the compassion of Christianity and humanity, and at the end of the day, I am still going back to the Church as a Reverend Father and a good Christian.”

    Governor Alia then elucidated: “In my state of Benue, we don’t have any religious, any ethnic, any racial, any national or state genocide. We don’t have that. Do we have a number of insecurities in the state? Yes, we do. But it is not a genocide. Someone would need to … check the United Nations definitions for this. Have we lost a number of people? Yes. We have, at different stages. I am giving you a background of the challenges we’ve had many years ago; talking about the agro-pastoralists, the herders, and then we’re talking about the agro-farmers, typical farmers. … But that does not fit into the parameters of a genocide. So, for those who seek to politicise everything, there is no genocide in Benue State.”

    Moreover, in a 19 November, 2025 report by Falmata Daniel in Premium Times, titled “No religious genocide in Benue – Governor Alia,” the Governor was reported to have said: “So, it’s on the record that I had an interface with the American ambassador to let him know that … in Nigeria, particularly in Benue State, there is no genocide, unless it’s my description, and the United Nations description of a genocide [that] does not fit within the parameters.”

    One of the most acerbic attacks on Governor Alia is in a 20 November, 2025 report by Agbemu James, in Idoma Voice newspaper, titled “Genocide: ‘shut up’ – Fr Kelvin Ugwu tears Gov Alia apart for betraying Benue people.” In it, Fr Kelvin Ugwu was reported to have said, to his audience: “Benue’s governor, and all the politicians for that matter, can speak all the grammar they want, call it genocide or ungenocide… At the end of the day, it is still you who will be left to bury your dead. The government and politicians will always try to water everything down so that this initial garagara around insecurity will fade and the international community will become confused on what really is the issue. It is every man to himself. Nobody is coming to help you. Don’t ‘let bygones be bygones’ when you can simply buygun before you get gunned.”

    According to a 23 November, 2025 Punch report, the governor made the following clarification: “The situation is multi-sectoral. Don’t reduce it to religion. Both Muslims and Christians have been killed. Benue is the most populous Christian state in the North. So, naturally, there are unspoken expectations, but let us not politicise people’s pain.” He further noted: “The crisis began as farmer–herder conflicts before escalating into full-blown banditry and terrorism. Several people from different faith backgrounds have suffered losses. So, attempts to frame the killings as religiously motivated are misleading and harmful.”

    Explaining the way in which such wrongful framing could be harmful, Governor Alia was reported in the 21 November, 2025 issue of Idoma Voice to have said about the insecurity which really arose from criminality, land-use disputes, and targeted attacks: “It is important to emphasize that the killings should not be defined or framed purely along religious lines. Misdiagnosing the nature of the crisis may hinder the multi-sectoral solutions already being implemented.”

    One of the problems that have often been seen as bedeviling Nigeria is lack of elite consensus. Amazingly, President Trump’s threat to levy religious war on Nigeria seems to have resulted in a measure of elite consensus with respect to vehemently opposing an American invasion of the country. The disparate range of Nigerians who have opposed such an action include Femi Falana (SAN), Omoyele Sowore (the 2023 presidential candidate of the African Action Congress), Seun Okinbaloye of Channels Television, Dele Farotimi (a regular critic of President Tinubu), Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, Senator Shehu Sani, and Nobel Laureate Professor Wole Soyinka. 

    Some Nigerians in the Diaspora have also been remarkable in their explanation of the true situation in Nigeria and their recommendation of caution by concerned foreign entities.  One such patriotic Nigerian is Ms. Oge Onubogu, Director & Senior Fellow, Africa Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies. She submitted as follows at the 28 September, 2022 US Commission on International Religious Freedom  hearing on Nigeria: “Nigeria’s overlapping conflicts, including the insurgencies from the north, secessionist agitations in the south, and inter-communal violence, have killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands. … In Nigeria, religion intersects and interacts with ethnic identity, region, social class, and profession. Nigeria’s protracted violent conflicts between farmers and herders is an example of this complex intersection.”

    Moreover, at the 20 November, 2025 US congressional hearing on the redesignation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC), she submitted: “It is important to understand the nature of the violence in Nigeria – and its causes, which extend beyond the religious or ethnic overtones that appear to motivate that animosity. … [A] narrow narrative that reduces Nigeria’s current security situation to a single story of widespread persecution and mass slaughter of Christians, misses other important considerations and oversimplifies the complexity of violence and inter-faith relations in the country.”

    Ms. Onubogu further notes with respect to Nigeria’s CPC redesignation: “On one hand, Nigerians, Christian groups in particular, welcome the current international spotlight, viewing it as an overdue opportunity to pressure the Nigerian government into taking decisive action against violence. At the same time, many Nigerians of all faiths, including Christians, worry that President Trump’s rhetoric – especially the threat of unilateral military action against the country – will be counterproductive and draw attention away from the specific problem of pervasive insecurity across the country, by inflaming existing political tensions and divisions.”

    Mr. J. Japheth Omojuwa also stood up for the country at the 2025 Halifax International Security Forum, held from 21 to 23 November in Nova Scotia, Canada. There, United States Senator Kevin Kramer of North Dakota said: “I think the Christians in Nigeria today are probably feeling pretty good about Donald Trump’s position.” To this cheeky remark, Mr. Omojuwa responded: “Senator, … I’m a Christian from Nigeria. … I do not feel good about Donald Trump. … Is there a way that powerful countries can help less powerful countries … without [leaving] them worse off? … [T]here’s a correlation between the point Donald Trump spoke about Nigeria’s challenges and the escalation of terrorism. … Is there a way to decently help Nigeria without making things worse and without disrespecting Nigerian Christians and Muslims?”  

    Reflecting on the whole debate about war and peace in Nigeria today, one cannot but remember the propaganda slogans in George Orwell’s novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. The manipulative, contradictory slogans are “War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.” It is noteworthy that, as our people say, “Ogun ò dà bí iyán; ogun ò dà bí èko” (‘War is not as delicious as pounded yam; war is not as delicious as cornmeal.’)

  • For President Tinubu to win the insecurity war

    For President Tinubu to win the insecurity war

    As long as sponsors of insecurity remain unmasked, shamed and made to have their day in our courts, so long will the powerful factors motivating them, be they religion or money, continue to consume them, and for so long will insecurity remain with us no matter the number of military emergencies declared by the President.

    Even his most virulent political enemy will concede that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is smart, redoubtable, and never afraid to take tough political decisions not minding whose ox is gored, as long as he believes they are in the best interest of the country.

    Unlike his immediate predecessor, President Muhammadu Buhari, he is never shackled, nor burdened with primordial or ethnic considerations in doing so.

    These are all the factors he will now have to fall back on if he truly wants to fight, and win the  resurgent insecurity war in the country.

    In this, he must be guided by history and remember that Nigerian governments have many times claimed to have tamed insecurity, citing for instance, how many Local Government Areas Boko Haram was claimed to have been expelled from in Borno state.

    He must also know that this is probably  going to be the toughest fight of his entire administration because it is going to be against some of the most powerful people in the country.

    Also, another election is approaching, and though he might have been kept in the dark, being non – Fulani,   when, in 2014/ 2015, then intending Presidential candidate of the APC, Muhammadu Buhari, was rumoured to have convoked a  meeting of some top Fulanis to plan how to oust President Goodluck Jonathan from office in order to retrieve  ‘their British inheritance – Nigeria’, and put it smack  back in Fulani hands. He must have since learnt about that as WhatsApp never forgets.

    And I dare say that despite the current deluge of decampments into the APC,  who says the same design may not be in the works against him now because we are dealing here with a  people whose major concern, always, is Fulani expansionism.

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    Or why the sudden, astronomical rise in security breaches?

    And what can be worse than three mass kidnappings, still counting, within days in Kebbi, Kwara and Niger states, as a result of which the Federal Government had to order the immediate shutdown of as many as 47 Federal Unity Colleges across the country, just as a slew of Northern states shut down literally all their schools?

    There isn’t the slightest  doubt some Fulanis believe it is time they conquer the rest of Nigeria which they arrogantly claim the British handed over to them at independence.

    Or haven’t they been out of power  for two very long years, plus!

    Below is part of the translation of a pamphlet allegedly written in Arabic and distributed in selected Mosques in Northern Nigeria by   FUNAM as far back as November 6, 2019 from which I have had cause to quote severally in the past:

    “This is the time to act. This is the time for second Holy War. We started in 1804. The British stopped us. We must regain the territories lost. It is against Islam to rotate power with infidels. Forget about election that will only lead to sharing of power”.

    “We must take the enemies in the West, Central and the North by surprise. That is the plot.

    Disperse and occupy their homes, forests, streets, schools, markets and act as spies. Our attacks on the infidels must be total and overwhelming. We must begin by instilling fear in them, weaken their resolve through kidnaps, brutal rapes, making it difficult for them to farm and subdue them before the war etc”.

    Which of these have Fulanis not shamelessly done or are currently doing all over the country?

    That was in 2019, but till date, not a single member of FUNAM has been invited for questioning by the Almighty Nigerian  security.

    All the above are, however, only minor parts of what is a much bigger challenge President Tinubu will have to frontally confront if he hopes to successfully deal with an insecurity conundrum that has convulsed Nigeria for over 15 years.

    And this is: “Who is really paying for Nigeria’s bloodbath?

    We talk endlessly about “terrorists”, “Fulani herdsmen”, “bandits” – as if they are ghosts who appear from thin air, armed to the teeth, fuelled, fed and endlessly re-supplied by magic.

    They are not ghosts.

    They are funded.

    And the sponsors are not barefoot militants in the bush – they are people in suits, kaftans and uniforms; sitting in air-conditioned offices in Abuja, Lagos, Kaduna, Dubai and beyond”.

    Chima Nnadi – Oforgu, quoted above, in a special report on terrorism and banditry in Nigeria, wrote at length on all these issues.

    Let us now dive into that seminal report from which we shall be quoting at some length.

    Wrote Chima – Oforgu:

    “In 2022, the Nigerian government quietly admitted that 96 terrorism financiers had been identified by the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) as backing Boko Haram and ISWAP.

    These were not rumours. They were based on financial intelligence – bank records, transfers, suspicious transaction reports – shared with law-enforcement agencies for prosecution”.

    “Yet till today, Nigerians do not have a public, detailed list of: who these 96 people and entities are,what political or business networks they belong to.

    What has become of the cases?

    So when government officials and foreign partners repeat the cliché: “We will go after the sponsors,” understand this: they already know many of them. The problem is not lack of intelligence. It is lack of political will”.

    Fortunately, nobody can any longer doubt that President Tinubu has political will the manner in which he removed  fuel subsidy and unified the foreign exchange market.

    To successfully fight terrorism in Nigeria, which has now been worsened by what Senator Adam Oshiomhole disclosed on the Senate  floor about those funding the bandits  guiding illegal mining operations, the President must be prepared to do much more.

    He must expose the names, shame and get tried, the following saboteurs, as detailed by Chima Oforgu in the article: “Terror financiers in government, Terror collaborators in the military; Terror enablers in the security agencies; Terror protectors in political parties

    Terror profiteers in the procurement system as well as the powerful individuals allegedly involved in illegal mining.

    Without the slightest doubt, the military emergency declared by the President is of great significance and will help the war on insecurity greatly.

    The significance of the emergency could, however, be greatly undermined if these powerful sponsors of Terror are left untouched, just like President Buhari and his Attorney – General, Abubakar Malami, left untried, the Nigerians who were named by the UAE, and recommended for trial.

    I say this because, as Oforgu wrote:”Here is the final warning:

    If Nigeria does not name the sponsors today, Nigeria will collapse under the terror they created tomorrow. And when that day comes, neither the rich nor the powerful will escape the consequences.

    The time for pretence is over”.

  • The tragic collapse of Nigerian football

    The tragic collapse of Nigerian football

    The night of November 16, 2025, in Rabat will remain etched in the consciousness of Nigerian football as a monument to institutional failure. Nigeria, a one time pride of African football and a nation of over 250 million people lost to war-torn DR Congo 4-3 on penalties following a lackluster 1-1 draw in which the DR Congo did most of the playing while the Super Eagles or should I say Super Chickens just ran aimlessly round the pitch.  This loss condemned the Super Eagles to miss a second consecutive World Cup—an unprecedented failure for a nation that once dominated African football.

    Surely, Eric Chelle deserves commendation for his tactical acumen in the semifinal against Gabon, and for getting the team to such a place following a very shambolic start to the qualifiers under Finidi George. However, his team selection for the Congo match was nothing short of catastrophic. Chelle made two changes to the side that beat Gabon, bringing in Semi Ajayi and Frank Onyeka for Bright Osayi-Samuel and Akor Adams  . While Onyeka scored early, giving Nigeria the lead within three minutes, the overall performance was not merely disappointing—it was a horror show of epic proportions. Players looked disjointed, lacked cohesion, and appeared mentally unprepared for the magnitude of the occasion.

    Nigerian football seems to be performing a vanishing act, I recall there was a time when Nigerian youth teams were the undisputed kings of world football. Nigeria’s U-17 team is the most successful in international football for their age group, winning a record five FIFA U-17 World Cup titles , while the U-20 team has won a record seven African U-20 Cup of Nations titles.  Those glory days now feel like ancient history with the current reality humiliating. Nigeria’s U-17 team, the Golden Eaglets, has failed to qualify for the African U-17 Cup of Nations three consecutive times. The Flying Eagles recently lost 4-0 to Argentina in the round of 16 at the FIFA U-20 World Cup . These aren’t just losses—they represent the systematic destruction of Nigeria’s once-formidable youth development pipeline.

    Even when these teams qualify, the selection process has become so politicized and compromised that one wonders whether merit plays any role whatsoever.

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    If there’s one word that defines the current state of Nigerian football, it is corruption. The Nigeria Football Federation, NFF has become what one observer aptly described as a crime scene that must undergo total overhaul.

    The House of Representatives established a Special Investigative Committee to probe how the NFF handled financial grants amounting to $25 million from FIFA and CAF and these  details are staggering: a physical inspection of the Birnin Kebbi facility, built under the FIFA Forward Programme, a facility  meant to symbolise progress in grassroots football has been described as  a substandard facility that cannot justify the sum of $1.2 million claimed to have been spent by the NFF.

    Also, despite President Bola Tinubu’s approval of ₦12 billion in January 2024 to settle outstanding national team debts, players still went unpaid, with debts dating as far back as 2019. Can we sit and assimilate this? Players representing their country are owed money from six years ago, despite billions being released specifically to settle those debts. In pidgin parlance, one is forced to ask “Where the money go?”

    Former Sports Minister Solomon Dalung attributed years of decline to corruption and impunity, recalling an encounter with a ministry cleaner who told him: “We work harder for failure than for success,” because officials benefit when teams fail early in tournaments as unspent funds go unaccounted for. This is the depth of the rot we seem to be  dealing with—a system where failure is more profitable than success.

    The administrative chaos extends to coaching appointments. The revolving Super Eagles coaching door in the last four years saw the exits of Gernot Rohr, Austin Eguavoen (twice), Jose Peseiro, and Finidi George ( Both Eguavoen and Finidi have no business coaching any team playing football in this 21st Century) How can any team build continuity with such instability? Three coaches managed the team in six qualifying matches , a recipe for disaster that predictably led to catastrophic failure.

    The domestic league, which should serve as the foundation for national team success, is in complete disarray. The NPFL, the primary talent pipeline, is plagued by corruption, poor officiating, and lack of structure. Without a functional domestic league, Nigeria has become overly dependent on foreign-based players, many of whom only discover their “Nigerian roots” after failing to break into European national teams.

    Only the Uyo and Abeokuta stadiums are qualified to host CAF matches in the whole of Nigeria, while even the National Stadium in Abuja, which was built with N85 billion of taxpayers’ money, was downgraded by CAF . This infrastructure deficit is a national embarrassment that speaks volumes about misplaced priorities.

    Perhaps the most disheartening aspect of Nigeria’s decline is the visible lack of passion many players display when donning the green and white. Watch these same players for their clubs—Manchester United, Napoli, Chelsea, Leicester, Galatasaray—and you witness transformation, commitment, and desire. But when they wear Nigeria’s colors, too often we see lackluster performances, half-hearted runs, and a disturbing detachment from the national cause.

    This is particularly galling when one considers that representing Nigeria at youth level is precisely what gave many of these players their breakthrough opportunities in European football. Without the visibility gained from playing for Nigeria, many would never have secured those lucrative club contracts. Yet they seem to have forgotten this debt of gratitude. When the national team calls, they should respond with the same fervor they display for their clubs—anything less is a betrayal of the jersey and the millions of Nigerians who live and breathe for the Super Eagles.

    The road back to dominance requires radical, comprehensive reforms:

    1. Total Administrative Overhaul: The NFF requires transparent budgeting, merit-based hiring, zero tolerance for interference, external audits of tournament spending, and clear KPIs beyond short-term qualifications,it’s  current leadership must be dissolved and replaced with individuals who have demonstrated integrity and competence.

    2. Adopt the Babangida-Westerhof Model: During Nigeria’s golden era in the 1990s, Dutch coach Clemens Westerhof enjoyed unhindered access to the presidency under General Ibrahim Babangida, allowing him to work without undue interference. Under Westerhof, Nigeria won the 1994 African Cup of Nations after winning silver in Algiers 1990 and bronze in Senegal 92 whilst also qualifying for the first time to the FIFA World Cup with a brilliant second round finish, an impressive feat for a first time appearance.   Westerhof is credited with turning Nigeria into a powerhouse in African football, discovering the likes of Jay-Jay Okocha, Sunday Oliseh, Dan Amokachi, Finidi George, Emmanuel Amunike and Rashidi Yekini.

    The next coach—whether Nigerian or foreign—must have direct access to the presidency, insulated from the meddling and corruption of NFF bureaucrats. This model worked brilliantly in the past and can work again if properly implemented.

    3. Rebuild Youth Development From the Ground Up: Nigeria needs regular youth competitions at U13, U15, U17, and U20 levels, with a consolidated national pathway for converting unrefined talent into elite football .Names such as  former Golden Eaglets captain Nduka Ugbade emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive development structures and proper football development systems from the grassroots level.

    4. Establish Coaching Continuity and Football Philosophy: Nigeria must establish a consistent football philosophy, adopting long-term four to eight-year planning cycles, investing in youth pathways and coaching stability . Countries like Morocco, Senegal, and Egypt have pulled ahead precisely because they build from the ground up with clear long-term vision.

    5. Revitalize the Domestic League: Massive investment in the NPFL is non-negotiable. Better officiating, improved stadium infrastructure, commercial viability, and zero tolerance for corruption must become the norm rather than the exception.

    6. Demand Player Accountability: Players must be made to understand that representing Nigeria is a privilege, not a right. Those who cannot commit fully should be excluded, regardless of their club pedigree. Create a culture where passion for the national team is non-negotiable.

    7. Engage Private Sector Leadership: Let’s have business leaders like Aliko Dangote, and others who have already succeeded in life partner with the NFF, Let’s have former football players like Jay Jay Okocha and Sunday Oliseh run the NFF,  they can add immense value to the football culture just as the late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah did and just as former players in other nations are doing.

    Nigeria’s failure to qualify for consecutive World Cups is not merely a sporting disappointment—it is a national crisis that exposes decades of systemic rot, corruption, and institutional decay. In a world where countries like Curacao, Haiti  Panama and Jordan are heading to the world cup we have squandered yet another  generation of talent in African football history through administrative incompetence and moral bankruptcy.

    The question facing Nigeria is stark: Do we have the courage to implement the radical reforms necessary to reclaim our rightful place at the summit of African and world football? Or will we continue down this path of mediocrity, content with excuses and empty promises while our rivals forge ahead?

    Anything less is unacceptable. The time for excuses is over. The time for action is now.

  • Language activism (I)

    Language activism (I)

    Mankind has travelled a long and tortuous road to arrive at this current point of incontestable global dominance. The oldest fossil which has been identified as being definitely human was discovered in East Africa in 1974. Irreverently named Lucy, she lived some 3.2 million years ago, still physically and genetically different from any human being alive today but already distinct from the most advanced of our cousins, the apes. Studies on the fossil suggested that Lucy, who was hardly a metre tall, died as a result of  a fall from a tall tree on which she had, as usual, sought refuge from the routine predation from one of the large cats with which she shared her immediate neighbourhood. In other words, she was just one of the creatures investing a space from which she could extract some subsistence for one more day of a truly precarious existence. It was an existence that was devoid of any form of comfort or promise. Each day dawned and was lived through as best as it was possible. No tomorrows existed in that arid and murderously competitive environment but Lucy and her humanoid companions desperately clung to life to which no other purpose other than survival could be attached. Man evolved over the next three million years until Homo sapiens arrived on the scene to create a brave new world in which some foggy sense could be made of human existence. That human species has grown to colonise every inch of geographic space outside the stubbornly unconquerable space of the Antarctic. And has become the most decisive force on earth both for evil and for good. Man has become the ruthless apex predator to whom all other knees must bow. The result of a recent experiment shows that the most dangerous sound in the jungle is not the dreadful roar of a lion on the hunt or a tiger on the lookout for what to devour but the sound of human voices in conservation. All animals who heard that sound fled precipitously from it. On reflection, that is the most sensible course of action under those circumstances.

    Mankind is the preeminent species on earth but not because of her stark physical characteristics. Put the biggest, strongest man next to a lion if you want to test this statement. Human dominance is certainly not physical. It is mental. It proceeds from his brain. Mankind is capable of thought from which comes the strategic planning which makes it possible for him to solve all problems collectively. What makes man truly awesome however is his ability to pool his thoughts with any number of other men through his ability to communicate. That is the basis of our much vaunted exceptionalism. The dinosaurs which ruled the earth for 150 million years before the sun set on them on one cataclysmic autumn evening fifty million years ago ruled the global environment through their sheer bulk which was augmented with a little brain. They were therefore not able to craft their environment to their will. With our species, the reverse is the truth and we not only have massive brains, we can enhance the effectiveness of those brains through the process of hooking up any number of brains through the power of language. Each person anywhere can communicate with his neighbour through the medium of speech using mutually intelligible languages of which there are now just over 7,000, with more than 400 of them spoken in Nigeria, one of the most linguistically diverse spaces on earth. Each of those languages spoken on earth represents some geographical and cultural niche, none more precious nor more important than the other. You cannot or definitely should not try to separate me from my Yoruba language because by doing so you are depriving me of my cultural heritage. Not only that, my failure to pass this heritage on to my children is a tragedy and reeks of criminal negligence. If you are Yoruba and wilfully refuse to pass on that language to your children, you are guilty of some form of cultural homicide and stand condemned. I use Yoruuba as an example here for the simple reason that I am Yoruba. You can substitute whatever is your mother tongue at this point.

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    Language is of such importance to any human being that we all come to the world with the genetic endowment of language adaptability. Noam Chomsky, the globally acclaimed grandfather of modern linguistics has postulated that every child born anywhere in the world has come with his brain wired to appreciate the grammar, that is, the structure of every language spoken on earth. It is not difficult to imagine that there are many opponents of this theory if only because it puts every language on the same pedestal, a situation which is anathema to those who seek comfort in the superiority of one language over all others. Some have also argued that nature and nurture are responsible for language development and Chomsky has not acknowledged the role of nurture in this process. You can think about that.

    I am inclined to support Chomsky in this matter, not because he needs my puny support but because I encountered a version of this theory from my grandmother long before I was made aware of the existence of Professor Chomsky or his theory. My grandmother came calling when my first son was born. Although she had been dandling babies; her children, grandchildren and great grand children on her knees for more than seven decades, she was still as excited about this one as she was with all the others that came before him. As she fondled him, she spoke directly to him, welcoming him to the world in her Ilara-Mokin (Ondo State) dialect. Some wag present on that occasion pointed out to the old lady that the baby could not possibly have any understanding of that language. Fortified by the weight of her age, my grandmother explained that all babies came to the world with the capacity to understand every language. They are however only able to speak the language or languages spoken to them in their infancy. In other words, children are able to speak all languages spoken to them but lose that ability by the time they are entering puberty.

    As far as I was concerned, this theory was proved to me shortly after my grandmother exposed me to it. A friend of mine, a fellow Ijesa married an Ibo lady shortly afterwards. I mention his Ijesa antecedents because we Ijesas are rather prone to marrying across tribal and other lines (Shout out to my in-laws in Akwa Ibom) but that is not the point of this story. The point here is that this Ibo bride arrived with the ability to speak Yoruba with the fluency of a native Yoruba speaker. When I asked her which part of Yorubaland she grew up in, she assured me that she had not lived in any part of Yorubaland before her marriage. Seeing my bewilderment, she explained that she was born and bred in the North. There, she lived in close proximity with Yorubas from whom she picked up their language. They were all taught in Hausa in their primary school as well and she was as fluent in that language as she was in Yoruba and Ibo which she spoke at home. She also spoke English of course so, she had four languages in her locker without having made any effort to learn any of them. No further proof needed to support my granny’s theory which is of course related also to Chomsky. The fundamental importance of language to human development is shown by this one observation but I am sure that there are many others that can be called upon. Our brains are wired to understand every language we encounter before the age of ten or thereabouts. After that age, that window of opportunity is closed and those who wish to reopen it have to do so through the use of considerable effort, which most people are loath to do.

  • Abductions revive Atiku’s opportunistic politics

    Abductions revive Atiku’s opportunistic politics

    Despite a pending case instituted by the Nafiu Bala-led faction of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the Federal High Court, Abuja, former vice president Atiku Abubakar has finally registered with the party in his ward in Adamawa State after pussyfooting for a little over four months. The registration caught reporters napping. In July when the former vice president and his men orchestrated the official takeover of the ADC, and former senate president David Mark and ex-Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola were appointed interim party chairman and interim national secretary respectively, it was expected that Alhaji Atiku would follow hard on their heels by consummating his registration. For inexplicable reasons, it took more than four months before he finally crossed the Rubicon. His months of dithering reflected the tentativeness of his politics and the opportunism of his ambition. Characteristically uncommitted to anything save his ambition, or to ideology or to political party, or to persons or principles, he has always had an eye on the main chance.

    Months before the July ADC takeover, he had assembled a flotilla for the unique purpose of finding a platform with which to make his final bid for the Nigerian presidency in 2027. The flotilla comprised sundry politicians grieving over their displacement in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), men and women anxious to see Alhaji Atiku announce his membership of the party in consonance with his huge financial commitments. Instead, he balked. Some suggested it was because the party was rent in two by discord over who was the legitimate chairman of the party, especially seeing how controversially the previous chairman Ralph Nwosu hastily relinquished office. Others suggested that though he resigned his membership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on July 14, 2025, the former vice president was at sixes and sevens over whether to finally commit himself to the ADC into which he had led most of his lieutenants. Gen. Mark coaxed him; Mr Argbesola entreated him; the talkative and vengeful Nasir el-Rufai tugged at his flowing robes; and the vast assemblage of journeymen looking for political relevance raised a din – all of them to have him lead the charge, not remotely or virtually, but from the front, physically, even if sluggishly.

    The 2027 party primaries are just months away. When by early November Alhaji Atiku was still vacillating, many members of the ADC, particularly those bewitched by his uncompromising talk, were beginning to panic. They wanted a political war in 2027, and were eager to draw their swords; but they were sobered by the enormity of the task ahead and chastened by what needs to be done to secure victory. Vacillations, they reasoned, would not deliver the main prize. But the more the former vice president was entreated, the more detached he became, until of course early last week when he dropped the other shoe. The party leadership may be flummoxed by their leader’s reluctance to take risks and are vexed by his seeming indifference to the dangers his tentativeness exposed them to, but the party rank and file are now openly animated. Alhaji Atiku had kept a tight grip on the funds needed to vivify a party long used to being hijacked and ravaged by ambitious politicians; now, they seem assured that at last, the spending would begin in earnest.

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    As unflattering as Alhaji Atiku’s political style is, and regardless of the many contradictions in which his presidential ambition over the decades had weltered, he is at bottom a cautious man and spender. He waited long enough to see that the PDP had become irredeemable; waited still to see that the ADC was unlikely to unravel over its disputed chairmanship and leadership fights; and also waited until the last two weeks when a spate of terrorist killings and abductions began ruffling the feathers of the ruling party. He was indeed still prepared to wait even further to gauge the right moment when he would feel and see the Achilles heel of the administration. But suddenly, buoyed by the terrorist abductions in Kebbi and Niger States as well as the startled incomprehensibilities of the APC administration in responding to the siege being woven around the country, Alhaji Atiku has found his voice and seemed to gain political weight. Finally, he senses that the APC can be beaten. Though he sometimes rails against the administration’s economic policies, he knows at bottom that the APC is not doing badly at all in reviving and, even more encouragingly, resetting the Nigerian economy. Using economic issues as a campaign tool, he suspects, will not resonate. It has to be insecurity. And in the last two weeks, a carefully choreographed wave of abductions and merciless butchering has triggered a jaunty response from the ADC and Alhaji Atiku. Forgetting that he is of the Fulani stock accused of being the main inspirators of insecurity in Nigeria, a charge also levelled at former president Muhammadu Buhari for being the chief originator of insecurity, Alhaji Atiku appears emboldened to claim he has the magic wand to cure the insecurity cancer. Few are likely to believe him.

    But it hardly matters. The former vice president is probably the most accomplished exponent of political opportunism. He has seen enormous possibilities in the choreographed terrorist attacks and abductions across some northern states, not to talk of the intensification of other attacks in states torn between suing for peace or fighting it out. He will deploy the ensuing public anger and helplessness to drive his campaign and position himself, despite his old age, as the deus ex machina Nigeria desperately needs. That mentality – of seizing the opportunity of lawlessness to make political profit – is rife among a section of the political class. It is illogical, but it is rife. Former Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai also once enthused, as governor, that being Fulani, he was in a position to stop the killings pervading the southern part of the state. However, all he did throughout his governorship was to pay the killers and, by his reckless statements and prejudiced disposition, stoked the fire of more killings in the state. Should Alhaji Atiku become president as he hopes, he cannot do better than President Buhari or Mallam el-Rufai. He will make stupendous promises, but he would be chary of drawing too much blood from his kinsmen. If his kinsmen saw the Buhari presidency as licence to deliver carnage, and found plausible excuses to justify and bask in the bloodletting, it would not be different under Alhaji Atiku. He has not shown himself a principled and ideological politician, and had in his past campaigns urged Muslims and the political North to be discriminating in their voting.

    No one believes that the killings and abductions are happenstances. Some, however, say they are enacted to thumb the nose at the United States which had threatened to bomb the perpetrators of Christian genocide to smithereens. This view is sheer nonsense. While baiting the US may seem foolhardy, perpetrators of killings and abductions, though they are in many instances Fulani, know that executing a military campaign by air or on foot in Nigeria is indeed hard to carry out with precision. Most Nigerians think the intensity of the terrorist attacks, particularly in the Northwest, was designed to produce both a political message and a political advantage. Alhaji Atiku is unbothered by whatever anyone thinks or whatever justifications are adduced for the rampage. All he sees is an administration discomfited by the events of the day, and an advantage for him and his beleaguered party to soldier on. Whether he can sustain the advantage beyond a few months remains to be seen. Though chafing under the table, the administration should count itself fortunate to have to contend with the recrudescing terrorist attacks about six months before the primaries and more than a year before the elections. If they cannot find a way to neutralise the political effect of insecurity as a factor in the campaigns, then they have themselves to blame.

    The attacks and abductions have clearly made the ADC and its leaders both hopeful and exuberant, a sort of profiting from an opponent’s misery. This is politically legitimate. But there is also increasing realisation that cells of terrorist attackers lurking in the forests in many southern states, their agenda speculated to be either land grabbing or the establishment of a religious caliphate inspired by ISIS ideology, is a disincentive to vote Atiku. Those speculations stand more chance of dooming the Atiku campaign than energising it as he anticipates. Mallam el-Rufai is characteristically more upbeat than even Alhaji Atiku. He swears that with the ADC’s newfound zeal and the muddle in which the APC has found itself, Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna would be swept away in 2027. His fixation is predictably with Kaduna where his reputation had been bludgeoned by former supporters who encountered and embraced the inspiringly urbane style of the governor and marveled that governance could be so easy and entrancing. The ADC national secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, has not met with such good fortune. His reputation is in tatters and his politics generally uncouth and unappealing. He zeroes in on Osun; but as regicidal as that state is, they do not have the reputation of being calculating and nostalgic. To them, Mr Aregbesola is history, and in Osun, they forget history, especially when it traumatises them.

    If the ruling party manages to turn the corner in respect of insecurity, the lull the ADC experienced for months when their dithery leader, the former vice president, agonised over whether to commit himself lock, stock, and barrel to the fringe party, will return to haunt them. But having been inattentive to and mystified and mortified by the country’s economic recovery, Alhaji Atiku will do everything in his power to prevent the APC from getting a reprieve. The abductions chaos has now gifted the great opportunist a chance to indulge his pastime of profiting from other people’s misery; he will nurture that anomaly for as long as he can manage. Given the brittleness of his politics, his unsteady gait in withstanding headwinds, and the way he plays ducks and drakes with the love and support of his followers, it is hard seeing him weather the storm when the political hurricane against his ambition reaches Category 5.

  • Trump auctioning Ukraine?

    Trump auctioning Ukraine?

    US President Donald Trump is neither a fan of history nor a deep thinker, but he has been very lucky. It is, therefore, not surprising that he tried to foist a 28-point peace plan on Ukraine in order to bring the Russo-Ukrainian war begun in February 2022 to an end. Largely drafted by the Russian official, Kirill Dmitriev, and containing provisions such as imposing a limit on Ukraine’s armed forces (to some 600,000), preventing the invaded country from joining NATO or allowing NATO forces on its soil, and Russia keeping the entire Donbas region, the deal virtually rewarded Russian invasion. As expected, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave cautious approval to the plan. But against the strident opposition from Ukraine and European Union countries, with President Volodymyr Zelensky poignantly suggesting that the deal was a Hobson’s choice that left Ukraine with the awkward option of keeping the friendship and partnership of the US or keeping its dignity, the deal has been considerably edited and watered down to 22 points to the chagrin of Russia.

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    Probably the only advantage for Ukraine in the original 28-point deal is a security guarantee by the United Kingdom, some European countries, Canada, Turkey, and implausibly Russia itself. The controversial deal, sold by US negotiator Steve Witkof as a US deal when he knew it was a Russian deal, reminds the world of the June 1919 Treaty of Versailles which not only inaccurately cast Germany as the loser in World War I but also subjected it to burdensome reparations. The Treaty of Versailles presaged the grand 1938 Munich appeasement that failed to prevent World War II. Now, another appeasement, probably worse than the World War I stalemate and the Munich Agreement, is in the offing. It remains to be seen whether Mr Trump’s shortsighted appeasement will not in turn produce a worse debacle in the years ahead, even after the guns have long fallen silent in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

  • Security emergency needs structure

    Security emergency needs structure

    President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a nationwide security emergency last week requires comprehensive follow-ups to be effective. The declaration followed a string of school and church attacks and abductions that once again exposed Nigeria to global ridicule. The continuing attacks, intensified in the past few weeks, indicate a mockery of Nigeria’s security paradigm and a scorning of American threats by President Donald Trump to attack terrorists and sponsors of terrorism on Nigerian soil. There is, however, also a growing suspicion that the synchronisation of the attacks is far more indicative of politics than anything else, whether they be scorning foreign threats or mocking governmental inertia. Whatever the reasons for the attacks, President Tinubu’s declaration is a step closer to fully taking on the evil coterie that has waged a relentless war on the country. The government may not have quite appreciated the declaration of war by terrorists on the country, but gradually, the whole picture appears to be getting clearer. The country is at war, even if the phrase seems harsh and apocalyptic.

    Last week, during a Christmas carol and praise festival in Jos, Plateau State, former president Olusegun Obasanjo strongly suggested the cessation of any negotiation or accommodation with terrorists. But in the view of the government there are actually extenuating circumstances that permit negotiations, especially in light of the permanent presence of hostages at terrorists’ lairs nationwide. Overall, President Tinubu’s security emergency declaration seems to acknowledge that public patience appears to be wearing thin. Indeed, Nigerian leaders know at the back of their minds that the country is just a few moments away from catastrophe. How they manage the next few months will, therefore, define the success of the administration itself and the future of the country.

    Read Also: Tinubu reaffirms security, unity, community resilience as core priorities

    If the security emergency declaration is to have teeth, the administration will have to go beyond mere declarations. It must put a structure in place, and forge a template and anchor staff to manage the emergency. It must not take for granted that the security agencies know what to do. The government has mandated the recruitment of extra personnel for the task, including 20,000 men for the police, and an indeterminate number for the army. In addition to explicating the ranching issue in line with the Livestock ministry mandate, the president’s statement also tasked the Department of State Service (DSS) with clearing the forests, in league with Forest Guards, of all terrorists. These are sensible but reactive measures that could give muscle to the anti-terrorism fight, though it is not clear why the government thinks the DSS should carry out an assignment the military has struggled with.

    But something is missing. An ad hoc team is needed, and it must be tasked with coordinating all the measures to stanch the flow of blood and curb abductions on a scale that must be seen as significant. The president must, therefore, task the service chiefs to draw up a plan, suggest a structure and composition, and list the desired objectives, including timelines. The security emergency declaration gives the impression that the administration and indeed the country have the luxury of time. They don’t. The terrorists are relentless and aggressive, and their sponsors, whether political (and invariably theocratic campaigners) or mining barons or even land grabbers, are determined to push through their sanguinary agenda as they gloat in accompaniment. These powerful non-state actors will do their worst to sustain the bloodshed. The genie they conjured and let out of the bottle more than 10 years ago will not let itself be put back into the bottle.

    As indicated in the main piece above, if the terrorists are not significantly degraded or even destroyed before the primaries some six months away, it could menace the country’s political calendar. More crucially, if the terrorism and abductions problem persist into the campaigns, not to say into the elections, the ruling party must prepare their minds for disaster. But for that disaster to be obviated, the administration must step on toes, face the problem more squarely than it has done in the estimation of the public, and decapitate the monster, not scorch it. Nigeria has been called many names, including ‘shithole’ and ‘disgrace country’. If the epithets are to prove undeserved, then the administration must see the current attacks and abduction challenges as threats to be confronted frontally and defeated with flourish for future generations to reference in their essays.