The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • Dangote on my mind V

    Dangote on my mind V

    There is little doubt that the most important commodity within Nigeria’s economy today, is petrol followed by diesel, kerosene and lately, cooking gas. A long time ago, kerosene would have been at the head of that list, at the time when it was used to lighten the darkness which descended each day at dusk. That is talking about a very long time ago, long before independence. By the sixties, kerosene was in highest demand when kerosene stoves became available and practically all urbanites depended on it for cooking their food, in favour of using wood or charcoal. Now that more convinient and efficient gas cookers are in vogue, kerosene has taken a back seat to the other fuels. At the height of its popularity, every neighbourhood had someone who sold kerosene in bottles and could be roused at any time of day or night to take care of any emergency caused by the shortage of kerosene at some critical juncture. Later on, kerosene became available in petrol stations which from time to time were decorated with long lines of plastic containers waiting to be filled with the precious fluid in distressingly too many times of inevitable scarcity.

    Now, petrol is deservedly at the top of this fuel queue because it is used as the major propellant on which the country is run. Whenever there was a shortage of petrol, the country was grounded, with long vehicle queues at any petrol station dispensing the precious fuel, usually at mercilessly inflated prices. This was the situation for a little over fifty uncomfortable years. Petrol is by far the preferred fuel for shifting all kinds of vehicles in Nigeria, with the exception of the long distance, usually articulated trucks used in the delivery of goods all around the country. The sale of the diesel used in these vehicles was deregulated many years ago and even under the notorious subsidy regime, diesel was always terribly expensive and perhaps therefore, also always available. In any case, it would have been ridiculous to have long queues of articulated lorries at petrol stations.

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    Taking everything into consideration, it can be concluded that there is a high usage of petrol per capita in Nigeria. This is why the cost of living is so neatly tied to the cost of petrol per litre. Any increase in the price of petrol is reflected instantly in the cost of practically all commodities and everyone feels the pinch instantly. There is no reason why this is not so. An illustration will prove this point as it was proved to me by observation many years ago. In that instance, I saw an old lady coming from the farm with a small load of wrapping leaves. She was trying to move her leaves to a nearby urban market at a time immediately after a steep increase in the price of petrol. Transport fares had also been increased to reflect the new price of petrol. Whatever profit the poor lady was entitled to, was immediately wiped out and the only way that she could keep her head above water was to increase the price of her leaves in equal measure. This increase was in turn, passed on to the moi-moi seller who also passed it on to her customers and by so doing, put some fire under the figures for inflation, causing them to soar destructively. The converse is of course also true. A reduction in the cost of petrol will douse the flames of the inflation which at this time is devouring our collective happiness and well being.

    I have no doubt in my mind that a substantial drop in the price of fuel, especially petrol, will give us the slack we sorely need, in order to breathe. The only way to get this done at this material time, is to cut the Dangote refinery the slack that it needs to bring down the cost of petrol and maybe, as an afterthought, the price of cooking gas as well. The first point that must be noted in this regard is that the Dangote refinery has the capacity to do this and more. All that needs to be done is to climb down from his back. Given the extant circumstances however, this is easier said than done. But, it has to be done all the same. This is why the signals and threats now coming out of many quarters are so worrisome. Dangote is now in this pivotal position because, more than ten years ago, he took the decísion of investing in a refinery. An identical decision could have been taken by any number of well heeled Nigerians, before and after then. But nobody had neither the foresight nor perhaps the audacity to do so, leaving Dangote in his current position of profitability and massive authority. That position is not only visible but it is also above any challenge in the near future.

    We are told that Alhaji Dangote is now worth close to 30 billion dollars. That is a humongous sum of money by anybody’s accounting. Were he to spend a million dollars everyday on whatever caught his fancy, he cannot live long enough to spend more than a small fraction of this sum. That is how big it is. It would therefore be a sad negation of his privileged existence if he decided to put sheer profit before principle at this time. The only way for his life to show any purpose is to stake his huge personal fortune on the future of Nigeria. Were he to fail in that purpose, it would be a heroic failure, worthy of being told and retold all down the ages and that in itself is grace and significant historical significance. Given the trajectory of his life up till now however, it is inconceivable that he would not be successful in this respect. To what purpose would it be if he continued to pile up the dollars which can be ascribed to his name? None is the simple, straightforward answer. From this admittedly rosy position, it is ridiculous to think that his primary objective is to build up a monopolistlc control of the fuel market. It will not work anyway if only because even as we speak, there are other local refineries under construction and it is only a matter of time, possibly a number of months before at least one other refinery comes on tap to give him some real competition. It is laughable for those who do no more than import, store and then distribute fuel of whatever quality to claim that they are genuine competitors. They may be so in their heads but in reality, they are only so in their dreams. It is a waste of time to advise them to come out of their dream and set up their own refinery. They simply are totally incapable of doing other than what they are doing now, that is to collect rent on their depots and shift petrol around the country in expired trucks, many of which are incapable of passing any decent road worthiness test. Even from that point of view, they cannot be regarded as being capable of offering any competition to the gas powered trucks mobilized for fuel distribution by Dangote. We can say that with those trucks, Nigeria is moving into a modern and safer mode of fuel distribution. Even then, until fuel is sent round the country in underground pipes, Nigeria will not be classed as a country with a modern fuel distribution system. In the meantime, the use of Dangote trucks for fuel distribution must be regarded as non-negotiable both from the point of safety as well as accountability. Without due accountability, there is no guarantee that considerable volumes of petrol will not stray across our notoriously porous borders.

  • Day wife ordered powerful general to enter rain

    Day wife ordered powerful general to enter rain

    Among men who are yet to be caught in the web of woman’s power, there is a tendency to underestimate the influence of the feminine gender on their spouses.

    History is replete with cases of great rulers whose kingdoms were ruined by their inability to rein in their spouses when their influence becomes overbearing. In Shakespeare’s Antony and Cleopatra, the story is told of how Mark Antony, the co-ruler of Roman Empire with Octavius Caesar and Lepidus, who was needed urgently in Rome as Pompey, another military leader, sought to take control of the empire, remained stuck with Cleopatra in Egypt

    In the middle of the hot battle for the control of the empire, he abandoned his army and ran after Cleopatra.

    In the bible, there are numerous examples of supposedly powerful men genuflecting before their wives or pandering to their promptings like Adam did with Eve, Samson with Delilah and Ahab with Jezebel, to mention a few.

    Within our clime, army generals and even heads of state are reputed for bowing to the whims and caprices of their female partners no matter how discomforting.

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    An aide to a former head of state once recalled how the head of state in question was lefty in torn uniform and injured face after a violent attack by his wife and First Lady, in his office! So much so that he had to be ferried back home by his aides to change his torn uniform.

    In yet another case of woman power, another widely respected General from the north was said to have gone to a social function with his wife, who was young enough to be his daughter behind the wheel.

    However, a heavy rain had started by the time the party was over and they needed to depart the venue but the car was parked at a distance. The woman, mindful of the prospects of her dress getting drenched or her facial powder messed up, turned to the elderly husband, handed him the key and commanded: “Go and bring the car”.

    Like an obedient servant, the elderly general jumped into the rain and walked gingerly towards the car.

  • Sympathy for IDPs

    Sympathy for IDPs

    One of the most cutting taunts in Nigerian politics right now is to be referred to as an Internally Displaced Politician (IDP). That is the tag that has been hung around the necks of some of the leading lights of the opposition African Democratic congress (ADC).

    Among the most prominent of this new species is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who left the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with so much hype, but is yet to formally join the over-inflated platform that we were all told was going to topple the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and send President Bola Tinubu back to Lagos in a hurry.

    In this group belongs the fire-spitting former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, who regular bulletins on X have somehow lost their earlier menace. Now he mournfully bewails the calamity that awaits Nigerian democracy if the president is allowed to cruise to victory in two years’ time.

    In the meantime, he’s floating around in political purgatory – somewhere between the Social Democratic Party (SDP) where he has received an icy welcome and his ADC promised land, trying to conjure some sort of magic potion that would banish Tinubu and deliever him from irrelevance.

    READ ALSO; What inspired me to write ‘Joromi’ song – Simi

    Part of this band is a certain Rotimi Amaechi, one-time Minister of Transportation who briefly flirted with something called the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). It was a brief and spectacular flop. The former governor of Rivers State who still fancies himself something of a political lion has been huffing and puffing – wondering why Nigerians haven’t revolted against the government of the day.

    When that trick didn’t work he began moaning about hunger. Again, not too many were sympathetic given his ample midriff.

    And then there’s Peter Obi who seems to be doing his level best not to jump into the ADC bed and whilst still pretending to be a member of the troubled Labour Party (LP).

    You really have to feel for the politically homeless are they trun round and round in circles not having the courage of their convictions but always willing to believe that their accommodation problems are caused by the all-powerful occupant of Aso Rock – and not by their own dithering.  

  • Challenging times for the opposition

    Challenging times for the opposition

    The beauty of democracy is that there is a wide space for the opposition to thrive and offer an alternative route to good governance, growth, and development.

    This critical role has its root in the 1999 Constitution, which guarantees the freedom of association and assembly, and the right of ruling and opposition platforms to jostle for power without let or hindrance.

    It is the duty of the opposition – political parties outside the government, individuals and groups holding opposing views on fundamental questions, and even the civil society pressing for a course of action in societal interest – to challenge the party in power and the government it has midwifed to a duel.

    Through constructive, lawful, and legitimate engagements, the government acknowledges the imperative of self-moderation. Those in power are kept on their toes, and policies and programes are properly evaluated to determine whether they meet public expectations or not. The greatest feedback on the government’s operations, machinery, and performance is offered by parties outside power through scrutiny and criticism.

    They become vital democratic assets when the alternatives they canvass are lucid, logical, objective, persuasive, convincing, and acceptable.

    Opposition parties should ordinarily be constitutional threats to ruling parties. In playing the crucial role, they need vision, skills, capacity, resources, as well as bold, brave, courageous, resourceful, and dynamic leadership. The authentic opposition should be poles apart from the cowardice of the hypocritical political parties masquerading as alternative platforms in the country. The lack of objective actions among the nation’s opposition parties has motivated critics to now blackmail the government that it is plotting to push the country into a one-party state.

    READ ALSO; What inspired me to write ‘Joromi’ song – Simi

    Since 2023, the major opposition parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – have not put their houses in order. Internal crises, multiple litigations and factionalisation have sapped the energies of their leaders who are not in one accord.

    Unable to resolve their internal problems, they deluded themselves into thinking that they could conjure up a coalition in distress, oblivious of the fact that Nigerians were not ready to follow them to perdition.

    The PDP is split, with pro-Atiku forces now taking temporary refuge in the borrowed platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The two halves cannot electorally survive on their own. Yet, reconciliation cannot be contemplated ahead of the 2027 polls. After 2027, the PDP and ADC, after a fruitless search, will try to moot reconciliation.

    Why they cannot broker a truce now is that their leaders are driven by antagonistic ambitions, and they cannot subject their individual aspirations to group interest. Currently, within the main opposition, crisis resolution is nil. All PDP stalwarts perceive themselves as leaders and they cannot subject themselves to any overriding leadership that evolved in an atmosphere of equity, fairness, and justice.

    The party’s National Working Committee (NWC) is a divided and weak administrative structure that does not command respect. It was reported that the National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, and the National Legal Secretary, Kamaldeen Ajibade, openly clashed in court over legal representation for the party.

    Today, the National Convention scheduled for Ibadan next month is being threatened by malice, hate and strife. It was proposed as a special reunion. But Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri, who was the Zoning Committee Chairman, and his Enugu counterpart, Peter Mbah, who was the Convention Committee Secretary, have dumped the party.

    Their defection trailed the departure of Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State and Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State. There are feelers that Taraba Governor Agbu Kefas may also call it quits with the main opposition.

    Those who have defected can be properly marked or tackled. But the danger for the PDP lies in the activities of those who have not defected, and may not defect but have their souls connected to the APC while their bodies remain in the PDP. They cannot be quoted as canvassing support for APC; they are actively mobilising for President Tinubu’s second-term ambition.

    ADC appears intact as an estranged PDP caucus, although the hosts – old ADC members – are at loggerheads with the new members, led by Atiku and David Mark. The snag is that the party is not waxing strong. Its membership drive has not drawn formidable politicians into its fold. Besides, there is an identity crisis for the dominant group in the party that abandoned its natural habitat, the crisis-ridden PDP.

    The NNPP is confined to Kano State, its only stronghold that is now ebbing away, unable to withstand the arrows of the APC members in the state, who deprived it of two constituencies during the recent by-elections.

    The Labour Party (LP) remains divided, the court verdict affirming the interim leadership of Esther Nenadi-Usman, notwithstanding. The party has a stunted growth, battered by in-fighting among cantankerous chieftains who cannot make sacrifices for the party to survive.

    The four opposition parties are gasping for breath, and they lack colour and character to attract patronage. Thus, their chieftains, particularly the governors, their aides, and lawmakers, are escaping from the sinking ships.

    Instructively, though the parties are in deep crises at the national level, the governors do not have problems with the state chapters they superintend as state party leaders. They also do not face serious opposition from the ruling party in their domains.

    By moving from their parties to the ruling platform, they oppose the opposing roles of the opposition.

    Those defecting claim to be captivated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s style of leadership. But they are reluctant to learn and adopt his style, which led to the survival of the Action Congress (AC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and APC. Some analysts argue that it may be due to their lack of intellectual wherewithal, sound principles, consistency, perseverance, courage, and capacity for long-term planning, which sustained the president when he was the opposition leader. 

    Where Tinubu learnt his politics is arguably unknown. But it is obvious that he understands the language of politics more than his political rivals. The two leaders he followed – Shehu Yar’Adua of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) and Moshood Abiola – only bestrode the space as colossuses but never attained power. But, not only has Tinubu mastered their tactics; he has become the most electorally successful strategist of the Fourth Republic.

    While he was the arrowhead of the opposition from 2003 to 2015, he eschewed fear. He was focused and consistent. He was also honest in acknowledging certain limitations, one of which was that he or his progressive camp could not do it alone. He, therefore, constructed a bridge of understanding, attracting like-minds to the crusade to liberate the country from what the APC described as 16 years of misrule by the PDP.

    The tragedy of the opposition is the decimation of its ranks through defections, lack of unity, and absence of a trustworthy and unifying leader who can make sacrifices. Asiwaju Tinubu made a great personal sacrifice for his party to survive in 2015 when he lost the bid for the presidential running mate. That quality is lacking in the current scattered opposition leaders who are driven by self-serving agenda.

    The PDP of 2019 was strong and formidable. Four years later, the presidential candidate, Atiku, and his running mate, Peter Obi, parted ways. They became rivals in 2023. Ahead of 2027, PDP has now split into the mainstream PDP where Makinde/Fintiri/Bala forces do not see eye to eye with the Wike/Anyanwu camp; an ADC wallowing in self-deception and a frustrated Labour Party (LP).

    The Obi/Otti factor has its inherent limitations, both being PDP defectors  now hibernating in the LP.

    As the PDP gladiators prepare for the Ibadan Convention, they are not in one accord.

    It now boils down to the fact that while the widely advertised alliance or coalition of the opposition is crumbling, APC’s unannounced alliance and coalition with individual heavyweights it has attracted is taking shape.

    With the expectation that more opposition governors and other heavyweights will soon join the ruling party, the months ahead portend interesting times in Nigeria’s political space. But it is expected that the opposition would make frantic moves to stabilise their bases. Indeed, a stitch in time saves nine. All hopes are not lost for them to overcome their challenges.

  • Tortuous path to glory

    Tortuous path to glory

    There is sufficient celebration in the land. The country is in a frenzy with everyone offering tips on how the hitherto soulless Super Eagles can play at the 2026 World Cup to be co-hosted by Mexico, Canada and the United States (US). Yes, talk is cheap; hence there is the urgent need to remind the NFF chieftains and their supervisors at the NSC that the time to tell us their plans is now, especially when the playoffs for the African continent to produce a sole winner from among Nigeria, Gabon, Congo DR and Cameroun is November 18, in Morocco.

    Our soccer chiefs and their supervisors must stop their backslapping, walking majestically like overfed peacocks and pumping of their chests simply because Nigeria beat Republic of Benin 4-0. Given our players’ talent and pedigree in the game, thumbing Benin with goals should be a stroll in the park with good coaching. It is the administrative tardiness of the NFF and the NSC that has kept us in this tortuous path to glory.

    It hurts to note that there is the probability that the Eagles would be beaten groggy if any good team can cage Victor Osimhen. Osimhen’s goals are made out of half chances and good positioning. I’m not too sacred of Gabon, Cameroon and DR Congo. My fears stem from the nations that the Eagles would face at the intercontinental level who have tested and technically efficient players.

    Pray, Osimhen is an internationally acclaimed striker, which means that he would be policed through fair and foul means by opponents, starting with the November 13 teaser against Gabon in one of the CAF playoffs, the other game being between Cameroon and DR Congo. Osimhen’s contributions to the Eagles are such that it is clear to the opposition that to beat Nigeria, Osimhen must be taken out of the game completely; the way the Italians stylishly took out Daniel Amokachi and Emmanuel Amunike, thus making our dreaded USA’94 World Cup team otiose.

    Already, Osimhen wears a face mask and Europeans at the intercontinental level would throw their elbows high enough to scratch Osimhen’s face. How the Nigerian would react to such crunchy tackles would go a long way to determine how well the Eagles would play thereafter.

    In fact, Eagles manager Eric Chelle should find how he can speak to Osimhen to be of good conduct on and off the pitch, otherwise teams would deliberately provoke him to earn a red card for retaliation. And Nigeria’s quest for another World Cup appearance would have been blown away. Osimhen’s treble had his trademark of latching on to good passes and rising higher above his markers to bury crosses inside the net. It should be on everyone’s mind that there are two matches to be played in the Four-Team CAF Playoff Tournament for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals. Perhaps, Chelle needs to either bench Stanley Nwabali or speak with the goalkeeper daily in camp; Nigeria would soon be red-carded over his outlandish behaviour during matches. I almost laughed my heart out watching Osimhen plead with Nwabali to relax over a post-match brush with a Benin player. It was a good sight. One only hopes Nwabali can also plead with Osimhen, I digress!

    The winner in Morocco will proceed to the Six-Team Intercontinental Playoff, scheduled for the Mexican cities of Guadalaja and Monterrey in March next year, where two teams will emerge and qualify for the finals in USA, Canada and Mexico.

    The winner from the African playoff will be joined by Bolivia, New Caledonia and two teams from Central America, and one from Asia. Not a piece of cake fixtures.

    READ ALSO: Nigeria to add about 130 million people by 2050, says World Bank

    Two teams from Concacaf and one team apiece from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC will meet in March 2026 to decide the final two qualifiers for World Cup 26. The FIFA Play-off Tournament will see six sides fight it out for the final two places at the FIFA World Cup 26 in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

    The matches will take place during the international fixture window which runs from 23 – 31 March.

    In the CAF Play-offs, Nigeria will take on Gabon’s Palancas Negras in a ‘first semi-final’ on Thursday, 13th November, with Cameroon taking on the Democratic Republic of Congo in the ‘second semi-final’ on Friday, 14th November. The two winners clash on Sunday, 16th November in the ‘final’, with the winner to proceed to the Intercontinental Play-offs scheduled for the Mexican cities of Guadalajara and Monterrey in March next year.

    From the six teams who qualify, the four lowest-ranked nations in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking will meet in bracket semi-finals. The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals. The winners of the two bracket finals will reach the FIFA World Cup 26. Tortuous path to glory for Nigeria. Do we have the players to clinch one of the two tickets at the intercontinental series? This writer’s response would be ‘if Osimhen would be fit and free of any form of competition injury. Otherwise, it is worrisome to accept the match fact that the team cannot win games without Osimhen.

    Besides, the NFF and NSC eggheads may have forgotten that qualifying  for the World Cup and doing well in the competition progresses attract huge sums of money which could make a debt-ridden NFF to become solvent or at the least settle a lot of their verifiable debts.  Obviously, one would have thought that the NFF would have learned a lot from not participating at the Qatar 2022 World Cup to prepare properly for next year’s edition to be co-hosted by Mexico, Canada and the United States (US). Not so, here. Grouped with South Africa, Republic of Benin, Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Lesotho, Nigeria required a breathtaking performance on the last day of the qualifiers to grab one of the CAF playoffs’ spots.

    According to FIFA, each victory in the World Cup playoffs is valued at $1.938 million, while a draw attracts $1.008 million.

    The Super Eagles ended the country’s campaign with five wins, four draws, and one loss, placing them among the top-performing teams on the continent.

    In addition, FIFA confirmed that every African nation that qualifies for the 2026 World Cup will receive a massive $9.6 million participation bonus.

    If Super Eagles win all of the country’s four matches in the playoffs (two in Africa World Cup Playoffs in Morocco and another two games in the FIFA Intercontinental playoff in Mexico in March 2026), the NFF will pocket the total sum of $9,607,320 an equivalent of N14,118,341,032.

    Aren’t these figures by FIFA mind-boggling enough to motivate the NFF members to do the right things to make the Super Eagles the toast of the world in every edition of the Mundial? The NFF is populated by distinguished academicians who ought to apply their vast experience to bear on the team’s preparations. Yet, they showcase a shambolic outing with every game for the Eagles.

  • A different coalition

    A different coalition

    Ever since his famous lamentation that rang across the country regarding his joining the coalition of opposition politicians against the re-election of President Bola Tinubu for a second term because he is hungry, not much has been heard along that line from former two-term governor of Rivers State and admittedly activist former Minister of Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi.  It may be that the leading chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has realised that his not inconsiderable bulging paunch may not be compatible with a tale of personal famishment by a man who had the privilege of holding key political offices at State and national levels for an unbroken period of nearly two and a half decades.

    Leading actors in the ADC are noticeably now less boisterous than they were at the outing of the hijacked party about the presumed ease with which they would eject President Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from power in 2027. There has been no significant response so far to the party’s recent directive that its leading lights who are yet to leave their former parties and formally register with the ADC do so forthwith, indicating a general lack of confidence in the future of the opposition’s Special Purpose Vehicle to oust the APC from power. The party has not been helped by the outcome of by-elections in which it has participated, which suggests that its grand strategy of capitalising on the hardships attendant on the drastic economic reforms undertaken by the Tinubu administration has not borne fruit, as the APC remains not only electorally dominant but continues to receive defecting opposition politicians into its ranks on an unprecedented scale.

    Even as it struggles to get itself effectively organised as a potent political and electoral force, the ADC has not come up with concrete economic policy proposals different from the reforms currently being implemented under Tinubu’s leadership despite its strident criticism that the latter have imposed avoidable hardships on Nigerians. Were such reforms as the removal of fuel subsidy and the merger of the parallel foreign exchange markets introduced at the inception of the Tinubu administration avoidable? There was a consensus among all presidential candidates going into the 2023 elections that these far-reaching policy changes had become imperative.

    Some contend that they could have been implemented in gradual, phased-out stages to limit the pain. But the argument has also been made that the kind of decisive, frontal action taken by President Tinubu on fuel subsidy and exchange rate harmonisation was critical to guarantee the success of the reforms. Half-hearted and indecisive actions in this regard by previous administrations were responsible for the persistence of the structural distortions that had virtually plunged the economy into a state indistinguishable from coma before the present administration’s surgical intervention.

    Leading lights of the ADC coalition and other critics of the reforms are yet to avail us of the magic by which they would have implemented reforms without pain, which would have been tantamount to extracting a decayed tooth without discomfort to the patient or preparing a delicious omelet without breaking eggs. Just as the coalition of opposition politicians in the ADC are motivated primarily by a desire to terminate President Tinubu’s tenancy at the Presidential Villa at the end of his first term and seek to utilize the hardships engendered by his reforms as a propaganda weapon to achieve this objective, there is a coalition of other forces who have commended the reforms, testified that they are working and beginning to yield results and contend that they must be sustained in the best long term interest of the Nigerian economy. The latter coalition is not partisan, not even political. It is not consciously organized and accommodates interests both domestic and external to the Nigerian economy.

    Furthermore, the components of the latter coalition are in a better position than the ADC anti-Tinubu coalition opposition politicians to pronounce on the health of the economy and the efficacy or otherwise of economic policy. In its 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released this week at the annual IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, United States, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reflected the verdict of this non-partisan coalition on the impact and consequences of the reform policies of the Tinubu administration thus far. As this newspaper reported the event, “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the country’s macroeconomic outlook. The IMF stated that the upgrade of its national growth projection for Nigeria was also based on a favourable domestic situation… “.

    The report continues, “Nigeria’s upgrade was significant as many other economies saw significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape. At a press briefing on the WEO, IMF Economic Counselor, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the Fund based its outlook for Nigeria on several improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic factors. He said factors responsible for the higher growth revision include higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and limited exposure to higher US tariffs. He added that the fund also considered stability in the exchange rate, rising foreign reserves and rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as significant factors expected to propel the Nigerian economy forward in 2026.”

    And speaking during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-four (G-24) press briefing in Washington, the Central Bank Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, gave an insight into the extent to which the Tinubu administration’s reforms had gone in restructuring the economy, resulting in its greater resilience and lessened vulnerability to global shocks, including unpredictability in international tariffs. He noted that a positive trend in the economy is the increasing transition by large businesses from imports to exports of locally produced goods and commodities.

    READ ALSO: Nigeria to add about 130 million people by 2050, says World Bank

    In his words, “We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time. So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks “.

    Aligning with this growing coalescence of positive affirmation of the Tinubu administration’s economic policies, billionaire Chairman of First HoldCo, Mr Femi Otedola, recently revealed that his decision to invest personally over N320 billion in First Bank “all in cash, without borrowing a single Naira” was partly inspired by the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration. His investment journey, according to him, “aligns closely with the bold and visionary leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who deserves credit for championing the tough but necessary reforms in our economy. I also commend the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Yemi Cardoso, for his courageous and pragmatic policy reforms. His actions are restoring credibility to the financial system and giving investors like me the confidence to commit long-term capital to this country”.

    Also commenting on the tax reform bills of the administration, which will take effect as of January next year, Otedola stated on his X handle that they were a “bold, necessary step toward a more transparent, efficient, and investment-friendly economy,” asserting that “I am inspired to invest more, and many other investors share the same sentiment”. According to a report on the online medium, Nairametrics, Otedola “believes that the reforms will reduce complexity and promote fairness in tax collection; restore confidence in the use of public resources; fund infrastructure and unlock productivity; and fuel inclusive growth”.

    READ ALSO: Nigeria to add about 130 million people by 2050, says World Bank

    The President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, is a key actor in the Nigerian economy whose views and perspectives on economic and business policy cannot be taken with levity. Dangote has on several occasions identified with the coalition of thought on the positive import of the ongoing reforms for the economy. For instance, when he received the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, recently, Dangote did not mince words in applauding the administration’s economic policies. “I believe we must sincerely thank His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for ensuring that there have been improvements in the supply of crude oil,” he said, noting that “His insistence that all crude oil transactions be conducted in Naira has been particularly commendable. For us to effectively meet market demand – which we can do – it is essential that crude is priced and purchased in our local currency.”

    As this newspaper reported the event, “The leading industrialist noted that these initiatives, along with other economic reforms, have brought a measure of stability to the naira-to-dollar exchange rate. He expressed optimism that the Naira would continue to strengthen in the coming weeks as the effects of the reforms become visible. According to him, the improved market predictability has helped investors make sound business decisions and restored confidence in the investment climate. We are also beginning to see some stability in the naira-to-dollar exchange rate, which has had a positive impact. There is now less fluctuation, and this has brought a degree of predictability to the market. For those of us in the business sector, this is a welcome development, as it allows us to plan more effectively. Looking ahead, as conditions continue to improve, we can expect to see a more favourable exchange rate.”

    Another business and industry giant, President of BUA Group, Alhaji Abdul Samad Rabiu, shares Dangote’s optimism. Interacting with journalists at the Presidential Villa in Abuja in September, Rabiu commended what he described as the bold and decisive economic reforms of the President, pointing out that the policy changes are already yielding positive results for businesses and the currency. He told the reporters that “I expect that the exchange rate is going to strengthen even further. I expect that the rate should come down to maybe N1,300, N1,400 before the end of the year. And this is something that we should all celebrate”.

    According to a newspaper report, “Explaining the impact of recent reforms, the BUA Chairman noted that businesses no longer rely solely on the Central Bank of Nigeria for foreign exchange as many are now able to source FX independently through credit cards and international banking channels  “So, really, for all these, we must give full credit to His Excellency and the government. Their bold reforms and decisive policies are creating the foundation for a stronger economy, a more stable currency and a better future for businesses and Nigerians alike”.

    From the aviation sector, the Chairman of Air Peace, Mr Allen Onyema, echoes the coalition of support for the President’s economic policies and their impact on business viability. Speaking earlier in the year during an interaction between President Tinubu and stakeholders of corporate Nigeria, Onyema applauded what he described as the President’s ‘forward-thinking approach to Nigeria’s economic development’, especially by easing challenges faced by business owners. As reported in the media, Onyema said, “President Bola Tinubu is thinking of the Nigeria of the future. The ease of doing business is coming back gradually. I can attest to that in the aviation sector because of the people he appointed to head that sector”. Onyema also attested to efforts made by the High Commission in the United Kingdom in making Air Peace flights into Gatwick Airport a possibility, including proudly publicising it.”

    Some may contend that all the foregoing only show that the ongoing economic reforms favour and are being lauded by wealthy business owners. But Nigeria runs a capitalist system, and a key measure of the health of capitalist economies is the viability and success of businesses and business owners, on which depend millions of jobs, considerable tax revenue for the government and an economy’s global competitiveness. Others argue that statistics showing improvements in such indices as inflation rate, trade surpluses, exchange rate stability or rising foreign reserves are meaningless if they do not reflect the concrete existential conditions of the majority of people. But there is no other way to measure the performance trend of an economy or the appropriateness or otherwise of economic policies. In any case, if current data had indicated a worsening of these statistical indices, the coalition of anti-Tinubu politicians would have been exuberantly jubilant.

  • Of excellent Amupitan and cynics’ catechism

    Of excellent Amupitan and cynics’ catechism

    In spite of the red flag raised by the touted 1,000 National Assembly lawyers and other groups and individuals in respect of the Deputy Vice Chancellor (Administration) of the University of Jos, Prof. Joash Amupitan’s nomination as the new National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the screening exercise at the Senate chambers on Thursday went without a hitch.

    The nomination announcement had barely been made when a certain Dr. ‘Dayo Osifeso hit the social media with a post highlighting what he termed grey areas in Amupitan’s resume released by the Special Adviser to the President on Information, Mr. Bayo Onanuga. His grouse was that the resume released by the President’s spokesman did not reflect the primary and secondary schools the nominee attended or the timelines of his attendance. He also could not help wondering how it was possible for Amupitan to attend the Kwara State Polytechnic at age 15. Besides, Osifeso raised issues about his career progression as a lecturer at the University of Jos.

    While the dust raised by Osifeso was yet to settle, a coalition of lawyers under the aegis of Association of Legislative Drafting and Advocacy Practitioners (ALDRAP) were up in arms against their professional colleague, asking the Senate to reject his nomination as INEC chair. They swore that Amupitan was unfit for the position on account of his previous role as lead counsel to the All Progressives Congress (APC) during the 2023 Presidential Election Petition at the Supreme Court. It would later turn out that in their desperation to fault the appointment of the eminent scholar and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, they had confused Switzerland with Swaziland, advertised Amupitan as Osipitan and literally dressed the neutral academic in the garb of a passionate APC ally.

    It has emerged from Thursday’s screening exercise that from his upbringing to academic and professional careers, Amupitan is a candidate made in heaven for the beleaguered seat of INEC Chairman. I speak not as a distant observer but from the position of an insider who has followed the trajectory of the nominee from childhood. We did not only grow up together in our native Ayetoro-Gbede community in Kogi State, we both attended LSMB Primary School No 2 where his father, Mr. Benson Amupitan, a passionate community leader, was my class teacher in Primary 6.

    It bears relevance to state that the senior Amupitan treated me like his biological son, probably because my father was the Oba and he usually visited the palace, hence I had known him long before he became my teacher. Given the values he inculcated in us as his pupils, it is not a surprise that his biological son, a precocious pupil, who was two years my junior, would break the barriers of academics in the spectacular fashion that now leaves his critics confused. He told us to aim high always because, as he used to put it, “to aim low is a crime”.

    READ ALSO; What inspired me to write ‘Joromi’ song – Simi

    He also told us never to be ashamed of our identity, citing the famous Ghanaian nationalist James Aggrey’s eternal words: “Whoever is not proud of his colour is not fit to live”. In the light of this, he told my sibling Richard and I to insist that people must pronounce our surname correctly because its meaning was being corrupted by the way it was pronounced by most people.

    The senior Amupitan influenced the course of my academic journey as he did a few other classmates with his insistence as our class teacher that we must all take the admission forms of a new school jointly founded by the about 13 communities that make up Gbede land. At that time, it was fashionable that upon graduating from a primary school within the community, the next step was to proceed to a secondary school in Kabba, Okene, Lokoja, Ilorin or some other towns and cities in the old Kwara State. But on the eve of our graduation, he came into class with the entry forms of Baptist Secondary Commercial School (BSCS), Iyah-Gbede, and insisted that we must all take them.

    Most of us had already passed the state-administered Common Entrance Examination and were waiting to be called for the oral interview. Hence we thought nothing of the move. Personally, I had made Crowther Memorial College, Lokoja my preferred secondary school and was confident of being admitted. But it turned out that Richard and I were among the four pupils admitted by BSCS with the consequence that our father declined when we request to go for the oral interview that would have facilitated my admission into Crowther Memorial College. He asked what else we wanted after securing admission into BSCS. Thus the admission forms we took just to please the teacher became a faith accompli.

    In all those years, I had known Prof. Amupitan, whose mother was also a respected teacher in the community, as Omo Oga (the teacher’s son), which in itself was a huge privilege. A proof of his brilliance was the fact that he departed LSMB 2, Ayetoro-Gbede for St. Barnabas Secondary School, Kabba from Primary 5 in an age that other pupils spent the mandatory six years before they graduated. That was possible because he had educationally exposed parents to guide his path.

    It is instructive that his father later veered into a career in the judiciary after undergoing a diploma programme in Law to become an Area Court judge. The move probably inspired Prof. Amupitan’s choice of a career in Law with specialisation in Evidence, making him to look like a perfect fit for the INEC job. But is he the answer to the army of cynics who would never see anything good in President Tinubu’s appointments? Only time will tell.

  • Renaming Nigeria

    Renaming Nigeria

    “Man is history after his demise. Therefore, endeavour to be a pleasant history for others to read after you might have left the stage”. – Arab poet

    Preamble

    Man is both a product and a producer of history. He lives by history and leaves history behind as his legacy at the time of his departure from this ephemeral world. This confirms the fact that man and history are like Siamese twins. The one cannot do without the other. History makes man just as man makes history. The synergy between the two makes them look like a pair of scissors in which one blade cannot effectively function without the other.

    This is a period in Nigeria when recalling history is a necessity. How did Nigeria come into being a country and has a name? Is this name fitting and appropriate for the country that bears it? Can the name be changed and can changing it make any reasonable difference? These are some of the questions that ‘The Message’ seeks to answer today.

    Accident of history

    On January 8, 1897, an article appeared in Financial Times which suggested a name for the vast land around river Niger which had then been colonised by the Royal Niger Company on behalf of the British Empire. The suggested name was Nigeria (from Niger Area) and the author of the article was one Miss Flora Shaw, a 45-year-old journalist. She was then the colonial editor of Financial Times as well as the writer of a weekly column named ‘The Colony’ in that newspaper.

    In coining the name ‘Nigeria’, Flora Shaw logically took many facts into consideration. One: the area in question had no specific name by which it could be called other than a protectorate of the ‘Royal Niger Company’. Two: She considered an earlier suggested name ‘Central Sudan’ as aberrational since that name already belonged to an area around the Nile River occupied by a population of Black Africans now called Sudan. She equally considered the name ‘Slave Coast’ which the colonialists had attempted to give to this area as derogatory and finally settled for ‘Nigeria’, which she coined from ‘Niger Area’.

    Born at 2, Dundas Terrace, Woolwich, England on December 19, 1852, Miss Flora Shaw (fourth of her parent’s fourteen children) was a novelist and frontline, versatile female journalist who gained fame through her pungent analyses of African colonial economy. She was later to become ‘The Honourable Dame Flora Lugard, the wife of Frederick John Deatry Lugard of Abinger who colonised and amalgamated the southern and northern parts of what came to be known as Nigeria in 1914.

    Flora was six years older than Frederick who was born in India on January 22, 1858. The two historic personalities married in 1902 and lived together without children for the rest of their lives.

    Four historical facts are manifest here. First: the name Nigeria had come into existence far away in England long before the country that now bears that name became a country.

    Second: the name was coined five years before Flora Shaw married Frederick Lugard. Therefore, contrary to the general erroneous belief that it was Mrs. Lugard who named our country Nigeria, Flora was Miss Shaw and not Mrs. Lugard when she coined the name.

    Third: it can be said that Nigeria came into existence through the efforts of a bachelor and a spinster who later became a couple.

    Fourth: by sheer coincidence, Nigeria’s second First Lady, Flora Azikiwe, the wife of Nigeria’s first President, shared the same first name with the wife of Lugard: FLORA.

    Lord Frederick Lugard

    Baron Frederick Lugard was a military adventurer and an ardent administrator who played a major part in Britain’s colonial history between 1888 and 1945, serving in East Africa, West Africa, and Hong Kong. His name is particularly associated with Nigeria, where he served as High Commissioner (1900–06) as well as Governor and Governor-General (1912–19). He was knighted in 1901 and raised to the peerage in 1928.

    As at the time of Lugard’s incursion, most of the vast region of over 300,000 square miles (800,000 square km) was still unoccupied and even unexplored by Europeans. In the southern areas were mostly animists and in the northern areas were multitudes of Muslims with city-states and large walled cities.

    Lugard’s intention was to merge these two people with diverse cultures and spiritual inclinations and manage them as a single people in a single nation. Within three years of his expedition, he had established a British control of the large territory by diplomacy or by swift use of his meager force.

    Although in hastening to take the major states of Kano and Sokoto he engaged the hands of his more cautious home government, only two serious local revolts marred the widespread acceptance and cooperation that he obtained. His policy was to support the native states and chieftainships, their laws and their courts, forbidding slave trading and severe punishments as well as exercising control centrally through the native rulers.

    Historic marriage

    After his marriage to Flora Shaw in 1902 and the latter could not stand the Nigerian climate, Lugard felt obliged to leave Africa and accept a junior position of the governorship of Hong Kong which he held from 1907 to 1912. It was like stepping down as president to accept the position of a governor. Only a very few Africans would accept such.

    But the bushwhacker from Africa achieved a surprising degree of success and, on his own initiative, founded the University of Hong Kong. Thereafter, Lugard and his wife joined the Southern and Northern parts of Nigeria in an historic marriage that is yet to prove union right.

    How far so far?

    Ever since the exit of the British colonialists in 1960, Nigeria has remained a country without focus, despite the enormous resources at her disposal. In less than half a decade after independence, the crude hands of African inexperience began to show vividly in her administration as ethnic and religious flavours were added to her republican ethos. Then came the insuperable mountain of corruption that kept overwhelming the citizenry and drowning all hopes till today. Then, a military incursion was introduced with sweet tongue to right the wrong but which eventually turned forlorn.

    Now, after 100 years of absurdity called merger, Nigeria continues to wallow hopelessly in a paroxysm of despair as the last four years became unprecedented in the country’s history of corruption. Today, the language is no longer mere corruption but corruption with unbridled impunity.

    As if in a nightmare, we suddenly found ourselves in a situation where figure 16 is said to be higher than figure 19 and theft is officially defined and treated as to outside the framework corruption. Billions of dollars are said to be missing from our treasury just as our foreign reserves are daily being depleted even as ministers and other governmental cronies are living like princes and princesses under an unquestionable emperor.

    Now, Nigeria is at a crossroads over where to go from here. Like Laurent Gbagbo’s tenure in Cote d’Ivoire Nigeria is anxiously waiting for a period of uncertainty but fervently praying that such period never comes. Typical of African greedy leaders, we now have a situation at hand where ‘the monarch must not be deposed democracy or no democracy. The rule of the game is either ethnicity or religion.

    And to prevent the deposition of the monarch, the military must be mobilised against the ‘bloody armless civilians’ for the purpose of election. Thus, election has become a war that must be fought and won with massive arsenal by the government in power no matter whose ox is gored. Where are we going from here?

    Democratic tenure

    Four years is a long period in a democratic tenure of a nation. It is long enough to lay a solid foundation for a nation. It is long enough to build a formidable edifice that can be inherited from generation to generation. If 16 years of democracy cannot do any of these in Nigeria can one century do any? If a journey of one year cannot take a traveller anywhere who says 10 years will take him anywhere?

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    As an OPEC country, we have abundant oil wealth but we must import refined fuel for domestic consumption. We have a massive army of unemployed youths and we cannot provide electricity to enable them to be self-employed. Yet, we are insisting that we must continue like this even as billions of dollars are being stolen daily. Where are we going from here?

    Obama’s counsel

    In his direct presidential address to Nigerian populace on Tuesday, March 24, 2015, the American President Barrack Obama said of tomorrow’s elections and the subsequent ones as follows: “Hello.  Today, I want to speak directly to you—the people of Nigeria.

    Nigeria is a great nation and you can be proud of the progress you’ve made.  Together, you won your independence, emerged from military rule, and strengthened democratic institutions.  You’ve strived to overcome division and to turn Nigeria’s diversity into a source of strength.  You’ve worked hard to improve the lives of your families and to build the largest economy in Africa.

    Now you have a historic opportunity to help write the next chapter of Nigeria’s progress—by voting in the upcoming elections.  For elections to be credible, they must be free, fair and peaceful.  All Nigerians must be able to cast their votes without intimidation or fear.

    So I call on all leaders and candidates to make it clear to their supporters that violence has no place in democratic elections—and that they will not incite, support or engage in any kind of violence—before, during, or after the votes are counted.

    I call on all Nigerians to peacefully express your views and to reject the voices of those who call for violence.  And when elections are free and fair, it is the responsibility of all citizens to help keep the peace, no matter who wins.

    Successful elections and democratic progress will help Nigeria meet the urgent challenges you face today.  Boko Haram—a brutal terrorist group that kills innocent men, women and children—must be stopped.

    Hundreds of kidnapped children deserve to be returned to their families. Nigerians who have been forced to flee deserve to return to their homes.  Boko Haram wants to destroy Nigeria and all that you have worked to build.  By casting your ballot, you can help secure your nation’s progress.

    I’m told that there is a saying in your country: “to keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done”. Today, I urge all Nigerians—from all religions, all ethnic groups, and all regions—to come together and keep Nigeria one.  And in this task of advancing the security, prosperity, and human rights of all Nigerians, you will continue to have a friend and partner in the United States of America”.

    Ordinarily, such a cross-Atlantic presidential speech would have been unnecessary if we had learnt from the examples of great African leaders such as Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Sam Njoma of Namibia, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania and Ahmadu Ahidjo of Cameroun.

    But since the uncheckable greed in us will not allow us to learn from good examples we must to listen to an American Obama who talks to Nigerians rather than talk with Nigerians. Whatever name we now give Nigeria, positive or negative; we shall not relent in saying: God save Nigeria!

  • PDP in denial as it disintegrates on self-inflicted injuries!

    PDP in denial as it disintegrates on self-inflicted injuries!

    Avalanche of PDP Leadership out of the Party:

    As the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) protracted toxic internal crises escalate, the party is unravelling, as Governors of the PDP-controlled states are moving en masse, out of PDP to the All Progressives Congress, along with their cabinets, members of federal and state assemblies, local government chairmen, and the majority of the PDP structures. Within this week, two PDP Governors, i.e., the Governor of Enugu State and the Governor of Bayelsa State, and the entire PDP team and almost all the party structure in the states, left the PDP. 

    Within the last two years, the PDP Governors’ forum membership has depleted from sixteen (16) to eight (8), and most likely, more PDP Governors will leave the PDP in the coming weeks. This development is a clear indication that the party is disintegrating.

    APC Governors Converting PDP leaders to APC- The Governor Uba Sani Example:

    For instance, three days ago, the APC Governor of Kaduna State, Senator Uba Sani was at the National Assembly to welcome the three members of the House of Representatives representing three Kaduna federal constituencies who defected from PDP to the APC. This further confirmed that at the state level, Governor Uba Sani is maintaining critical momentum while applying “politics without bitterness”.

     How Did PDP Get into this Situation?

    Could this be the beginning of the end of PDP? Certainly, the PDP will soon become another case study in Nigeria’s political history – A classic case of what happens if leaders of a political party are stingy with their money, short-sighted with their vision, greedy with their ambition, and. Most of its leaders, like many political leaders in Nigeria, feel entitled.  Something that is as mundane, yet profoundly telling as the inability to own a national headquarters, or ensuring that the ground rent of the building is paid for as at when due, tells you the kind of double standards that some political leaders in Nigeria, in this case, the PDP leadership, have been running the political party. The fact that political leaders cannot own a political party Headquarters in the 26 years of Its existence out of which the PDP produced three Presidents of Nigeria who served for 16 years, with the majority of state Governors across Nigeria and majority at the National and State Assemblies, is telling of how committed they are to the political party, which leaves much to be desired.

    Most members of the party are political “free loaders” (like many politicians in Nigeria) who did not and are not truly committed to the unity and progress of the party. The majority of the PDP have only been using the party as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for achieving their selfish and parochial political interests. That is why they dump the party whenever it does not serve their interest, and return to the party when it suits them. By the way, this is how most Nigerian politicians use the political parties. 

    In addition, “lazy politics”, politics of entitlement, stomach infrastructure politics, and lack of internal party democracy, are also the reasons why the PDP has been unable to resolve the lingering internal crisis, which demonstrates the lack of capacity of the party to produce a President that will effectively lead Nigeria. The truth is that the PDP must rebuild the confidence of Nigerians and convince Nigerians that the PDP is the correct party that can effectively and successfully lead Nigeria.

     So far, the PDP has been bedeviled by internal crises for about fifteen years (since 2010), as a result of self-inflicted internal wrangling, and power tussles. The fault lines in the PDP structure started subliminally, in 2009 when the ailment of the then President Umar Musa ‘Yar’Adua got worse and the doctrine of necessity had to be applied (and rightly so) to save Nigeria from a power vacuum, by empowering the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to become acting President, the subsequent death of President ‘Yar’Adua, and confirmation of President Jonathan as President and Commander-In-Chief. The cracks started becoming visible during the 2011 Presidential primary and general elections, when some power blocs within the PDP felt that it was still the turn of northern Nigeria to produce the President that should complete two terms of eight years that was truncated by the death of President ‘Yar’Adua, especially with late President Muhammadu Buhari who was at that time, a frontline and popular opposition Presidential aspirant from northern Nigeria, who was to contest against the PDP Presidential candidate. Even though President Goodluck Jonathan went on to win the 2011 Presidential elections, the cracks and internal crisis continued to brew subliminally and were ignored by President Jonathan and the PDP party leaders. The continued, unperturbed enjoyment of the electoral victory and power of incumbency. By 2014, the internal crisis of the party had manifested to the extent that a splinter group of then PDP State Governors that called themselves the “G5”, broke away from the mainstream PDP to join the coalition that formed the All Progressive Congress (APC), which removed PDP from presidential power. Essentially, the PDP leadership ignored the telltale signs of the fault lines, cracks within the party structure, and the consequent crises. As most of the leaders sat on their hands, the PDP had begun to face an existential crisis as the party began to implode.

     What broke the camel’s back was the power tussle, built up to the 2023 Presidential Primaries, the powerplay and zoning arrangement that culminated in a full-blown political war between the 2023 Presidential candidate, former Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the then Governor of Rivers State Nyensom Wike. The self-inflicted injuries of the previous years and the refusal of the PDP leadership to recognize the geopolitical dynamics and realities of the 2023 imbroglio dealt a deadly blow to the PDP.

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     In fairness to then Governor of Rivers State and now Minister of FCT, Nyensom Wike, he was practically funding and running the PDP for some years, while other active and former political leaders and office holders folded their arms and watched him as some of them were decamping from the PDP to other political parties at their convenience between election cycles, thinking that they could have their way all the time. Alas! The PDP has never been the same – it has been disintegrating. 

    PDP is Living in Denial:

    PDP leaders have been in denial and blaming all sorts of reasons for the PDP predicament. While I concede that propaganda is part of politics and war, propaganda can only be useful and effective to the extent you are doing all possible to reclaim lost positions, consolidate, and take charge. It is disastrous to think that propaganda alone will win your wars or competitions. In the end, propaganda is a bubble that will burst. It appears the PDP bubble is about to burst.

     Back in the days, the PDP was the party to beat. It was a party in charge of its structures and machinery at the federal and state levels. It was a party that was disciplined and entrenched. But complacency, greed, intoxication of the power of incumbency, and the slow but sure incursion of political jobbers and pretenders were the combined monsters that are consuming the party. Yet at this critical point of its existence, the PDP is living in denial and waiting for a magic or miracle to bring it back to power.

    It is ironic that the PDP is a party whose leaders bragged that they would be in power for 60years. Alas! The PDP could only crawl to reach the 16-year milestone of holding the Presidency of Nigeria. 

    PDP Never Prepared for when they became an Opposition Party

    Furthermore, one of the critical failure factors for the PDP is that they took Nigeria and things for granted. The PDP is living in denial, because they never prepared for survival as an opposition political party, and when the time came for them to be an opposition party, like the APC and other legacy political parties had been for 16years while the PDP held sway, they just got lost. When reality hits the party, the leaders of the party are not wired or prepared to unite, adapt, re-strategize, and collectively work to regain control and leadership of the party and Nigeria.  

    Indeed, any political party that wants to exist for long, must be prepared to be united, proactive, consistent, consolidated, financially capable, and effective, for instance, in the United States of America, power shifts between the Republican and Democratic political parties. In the United Kingdom, power shifts are between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party.

    Interestingly, the PDP will conduct its national convention in the next one month even though a group within the party is in Court in a bid to stop the Convention. The months ahead are crucial for the PDP.

  • PDP: Last kick of a dying horse

    PDP: Last kick of a dying horse

    For the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the once self-styled largest party in Africa, it does not rain, it pours. In the past few months, it has been swinging from one crisis to the other. What is more? These crises are self inflicted. The party has lost direction. It has leaders, but they are not in control.The National Working Committee (NWC) is only so in name.The National Executive Committee (NEC) is worse. It is suffering from a bent NEC(k)!

    So, it cannot turn its nec(k) and see the magnitude of the crisis which is about to consume the party. PDP has lost steam.It is no longer a party, but a collective of people struggling to keep the boat from capsizing. As its few remaining governors are straining to keep the party going, the more headwinds it runs into. Do not be fooled. The PDP governor you see talking and thumping his chest today about dying in and for the ‘great PDP’ may well be on his way out the next day.

    Things are that bad for the party. Its much-vaunted structures from the ward to local government and state levels which were its pride in many parts of the country between 2003 and 2015 have slipped off its hands. It is left with the shells of those structures. Its governors who controlled those structures have left in droves and more may still leave for the All Progressives Congress (APC). Hardly a day passes that the party does not lose a member or two in the National Assembly to the APC.

    Yet, it keeps deceiving itself that all is well. Its three governors – Bala Muhammed (Bauchi), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Umaru Fintiri (Adamawa) – whose lot it has become to rebuild the party which from all intent and purpose is in tatters are papering the crack with sweet talks. These are sweet nothings in the face of what is happening to their beloved PDP. How can all be well with a party which lost three governors in quick succession to another party?

    And these are not governors of just any state. They are the governors of Delta, Akwa Ibom and Enugu, Sheriff Oborevwori, Umo Eno and Peter Mbah. Mbah left PDP for APC on Tuesday, with all his commissioners, members of the House of Assembly, councillors and their chairmen. Thus, APC now has a  strong foothold in the Southeast with three of the five states there in its kitty. APC is not in charge only in Abia and Anambra. At the rate it is going, it is a matter of time before those two also fall. Besides, it is the dominant party in Southsouth where it is in charge of four of the six states there except Rivers and Bayelsa,

    Read Also: Lokpobiri, Wike, others okay Diri’s exit from PDP

    Unofficially, some say Rivers is APC because of recent developments. The governor, Siminalayi Fubara, just returned from a six-month suspension following the state of emergency imposed on Rivers. His counterpart in Bayelsa, Douye Diri, is said to be warming up to join APC. In the Northeast, a governor in a state there is also said to be on his way to the ruling party. So, what is Muhammed and Makinde blabbing about the party being intact when in fact its umbrella, the PDP symbol, is already torn?

    What is the use of a torn umbrella when it is raining? Even then, it is more than raining with what is happening in PDP. It is pouring. How can a torn umbrella contain such a downpour? To Muhammed and Makinde, PDP temains the party to beat in 2027! I laugh in Fulfude and Yoruba!! How delusional can one be? Can they not see the handwriting on the wall? The party should consider itself lucky if its convention billed for Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, next month holds. The issue is in court as some members are alleging that the NWC did not follow due process before fixing.the convention.

    Then, there are the problems in Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Kebbi and Plateau where the national secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, and national publicity secretary, Debo Ologunagba, are squabbling. They issued conflicting statements on the status of the state working committees (SWCs). Ologunagba said the SWCs had been dissolved, Anyanwu countered that NWC never took such a decision. He added that if it did, he must know as the party scribe. His statement makes sense. Muhammed and Makinde can  say whatever they like to make it look as if there is nothing, but the truth is that PDP is on its way to extinction.

    As this paper reported on Saturday, its fall in Enugu, following the defection of Mbah to APC, is a clear indication that PDP is gone for good, at least for now, and there seems to be no hope for it in 2027, no matter what Muhammed and Makinde say to the contrary. Indeed, to paraphrase Makinde, the electorate and not politicians would determine the outcome of the 2027 elections. We all know that. PDP will be shocked by the outcome. Mark my words. Look at the party that wanted to rule for 60 years!