The Nation Newspaper

Category: Emmanuel Oladesu

  • Atiku and his 2027 calculations

    Atiku and his 2027 calculations

    For Atiku Abubakar, Wazirin Adamawa and former Vice President, it is not yet time for retirement from politics. To him, the vocation is for life. The goal is the attainment of power, to which he has committed a 30-year-old struggle.

    The 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has returned to the drawing board. He is already gazing at 2027, according to his associate, Daniel Bwala, a lawyer. The old political warhorse is exhibiting an example of courage and resilience, a rare optimism that has consistently served as the propeller in a journey of over three decades characterised by ups and downs, successes and failures, hectic struggle and fruitless search for the elusive key to Aso Villa, the seat of government.

    The corollary of what Bwala has told the world is that the former Vice President is not afflicted by any fatigue but is being spurred by a renewed dedication to pursue an unfinished business. Like Major General Muhammadu Buhari, who got the key after the fourth attempt, Atiku remains undaunted.

    By 2027, the eminent politician would have been involved in the presidential contest, either as an aspirant or candidate, seven times. The significance of his involvement is that as an eminent Nigerian and a politician of high pedigree, he has been in a vantage position to exercise his inalienable right to seek the highest office in the land in accordance with the Electoral Act and the Constitution.

    It is noteworthy that voters have also exercised the constitutional right to reject his bid.

    By 2027, Atiku, who is over 76 years now, will be 80. To his fanatical supporters, old age is not a barrier. Even, in other climes, like the United States of America, 81-year-old President Joe Biden is not showing any extreme signs of tiredness or exhaustion. He is still on the firing line, insisting he will contest for a second term.

    Atiku may have been motivated by the resilience and consistency of two American politicians – Lyndon LaRouche and Harold Stassen – who got their parties’ presidential nominations seven and nine times. But neither man became president.

    The former Vice President might have also read the history of former American President Abraham Lincoln who contested for political offices several times before he was finally elected president of the United States.

    In his book, titled: Accidental Civil Servant, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, hinted that some marabouts had prophesied that Atiku would be president. But they never gave details about time, season, and circumstances; neither did they disclose the conditions for attaining the rare feat then, now, and in the future.

    Besides, the greatest motivation for Atiku is the quest for self-actualisation. Like his old friend and associate, President Bola Tinubu, who worked hard to realise his lifetime ambition through a rare diligence,  hardwork and divine grace, Atiku sees the presidency, which has been eluding him since 1993, as the ultimate. Last year, it was psychologically painful and demoralising to him and his supporters that Asiwaju Tinubu, an experienced politician but a first-time presidential contender, defeated him.

    Indeed, Atiku justified his worth in 2023 by garnering over seven million votes. The only dark side was that the figures were insufficient to earn him the crown. Compared to the over eight million votes Asiwaju Tinubu got, it appeared that despite his frantic efforts, Atiku made some wrong calculations which made Asiwaju to pull the rug off his feet.

    Other permutations also fell flat. The recourse to ethnicity, the subtle religious campaigns by some of his fans, the resort to blackmail, the doubtful grounds for post-election litigation, social media tirade, and the deployment of other forms of propaganda did not yield the desired results.

    Bwala has indicated that the old lion can still roar. The PDP chieftain also gave some reasons for believing that it was not yet the end of a political career for a juggernaut. He said Atiku has the experience, particularly in the private sector, the capacity, knowledge, and wisdom to give Nigeria a worthwhile political leadership. Bwala, who projected what could be described as the strengths of the Adamawa-born politician, was, however, silent on his weaknesses as a candidate and the factors that may puncture his aspiration to appeal to the generality of Nigerians, if he offers himself again for leadership.

    Further confirmation from the horse’s mouth may be required. But the ruling party and other opposition platforms should also be able to read the body language of the former Vice President. It is doubtful that they will treat his ambition, which portends a formidable threat, with levity, except to their peril.

    The impetus may be that Atiku has always got the ticket of his party, as he once remarked with confidence. But what now appears as a sense of entitlement may as well be infuriating to other ambitious, dedicated, and relatively younger party stalwarts who may not be inclined to step down in the future primary, despite the possibility of enlisting certain partisan regional leaders to mount pressure when the time comes.

    How much of post-mortem Atiku has done since his 2023 ambition collapsed at the poll and Supreme Court is unknown. It was his closest to getting the coveted crown. Never has such an opportunity come his way. Also, never has a devastating blow been done to his plans.

    The future is in the womb of time. But it does not appear, for now, that Atiku will be the major face of the opposition in the long journey to 2027. His overtures to the former Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, have been rebuffed. The thinking in Obi’s camp may be that he can even get to the presidency if he puts in more effort. Here lies the imminence of another electoral disaster.

    Apart from a proper synergy and collaboration among political parties, reminiscent of the cooperation between Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP), and a section of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which culminated in the birth of the All Progressives Congress (APC), cross-ethnic collaboration is also a factor in winning the presidential election.

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    Instructively, President Tinubu, winner of the 2023 presidential poll, won in four of the six geo-political zones. The poll result was a product of bridge building. But what has now happened, or what is likely to happen, between now and the next electioneering, to convey the impression that PDP will wax stronger? Has the party resolved to put its house in order and embark on genuine reconciliation at the national and state levels?

    Up to now, the PDP has not resolved the zoning challenge, which polarised the platform ahead of the 2023 poll. The issue is still likely to shape the next general election. The assumption will be that if the North had produced a President for eight years, should the South be denied? This view may gain prominence if the Tinubu administration delivers on its mandate to Nigerians.

    Echoing the Southern sentiment, former PDP Deputy National Chairman, Chief Olabode George, said: “I don’t really understand the rhetoric in some quarters these days that a member of the party from the North is strategising or plotting to return as the presidential candidate of our party in 2027.

    “A northerner cannot be the presidential candidate of our party in 2027, pure and simple. The earlier some members pushing this agenda knew this truth, the better for our collective sanity.”

    The argument is that if the North, represented by Buhari, had occupied the seat for eight years, the South should also occupy it for eight years, in the spirit of equity, fairness, and justice.

    The battle for the control of party structure in the main opposition will be fierce, now that the declaration of ambition on Atiku’s behalf has inadvertently kicked off the 2027 race when the INEC has not released the timetable. What is likely to happen in the PDP is that future presidential aspirants will start sharpening their arrows ahead of the next convention of the party to produce key members of the National Working Committee (NWC) who will play prominent roles at the primary.

    The battle for the election or selection of the next national chairman of the PDP would be shaped by the 2027 permutations of the gladiators. An unresolved puzzle is which zone should produce the next chairman. The mood of the party is not likely to accommodate the selection of the party chairman and presidential candidate from the same bloc zones. The most dominant and influential bloc in the PDP is the governors’ forum. How will Atiku unite them and rally them to embrace him as a candidate?

    What happens in the PDP in the months ahead will determine how far Atiku will be able to go in the attempt to realise his presidential ambition. Obviously, he may not be able to go far, if his political platform does not align with his modus operandi, no matter the clout he may bring into the race next time.

  • Challenges before Aiyedatiwa

    Challenges before Aiyedatiwa

    Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa has fulfilled his destiny. He has become the governor of Ondo State.

    Indisputably, he nursed an ambition for the ultimate power at the sub-regional level. The power was landing on his palm piecemeal as deputy governor, and later, as acting governor.

    The distance between the power of the governor and deputy is long. Yet, the position of deputy could be a stone’s throw from the driver’s seat, particularly in the moment of emergency and anxiety.

    On Wednesday, Aiyedatiwa succeeded his late boss, Rotimi Akeredolu, prominent lawyer and former Chairman of Southwest Governors’ Forum and Leader of Southern Nigeria Governors’ Forum.

    Lucky means fortunate; he is fortunate to lead the Sunshine State at this crucial time.

    Orimisan, a typical Ikale – a sub-Yoruba dialect name – translates to “my head is good or fitting,” which aligns with his first name, “Lucky.” The name implies a head that fits the crown. The immediate expectation now is that the crown should also fit the head of the “king”. It is not about fashion or glitz; it is about a proper conduct that inspires and reassures that in post-Akeredolu period, Ondo is safe in the hands of its new captain.

    Aiyedatiwa, another native name, means “the world is now ours”. In the correct perspective, it means “power now belongs to us”. A slight translation would mean: “This is our chance or opportunity.”

    Yet, the name Aiyedatiwa has a wider meaning and implication. “Aye” means the world, or the earth. It is a collective property given temporarily to mankind by the Creator. It is given through the hands of the Omnipotent, the Alpha, to be retrieved later by the same Omnipresent, the Omega. It is not forever.

    Men of wisdom in ancient times, after having it full, still came back to their senses at the twilight of life. Despite the alluring royalty in his possession, everything became suddenly boring, making King Solomon to even proclaim that life is ‘vanity of vanities, all is vanity.’

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    Aiyedatiwa, as a name, rightly alludes to an epoch. Yet, kingdoms and empires have hidden expiring dates. In politics, it may be determined by the constitution. It can also be premised on unforeseen contingencies. The right word here is caution so that a man of power will not be enslaved by authority, thereby allowing power to use him, instead of him using power for public good.

    “Aiyedatiwa,” therefore, underscores not only an emergency opportunity but a guarantee of inclusion for all.

    Suppose Aiyedatiwa is misinterpreted as “the world has now become ours,” it may mean the imminent enthronement of a caucus within a big party with vast taproots. In that case, there will be resistance, whether feeble or concerted. The crisis period may be elongated to the detriment of the party or state.

    The death of Akeredolu and the inauguration of Aiyedatiwa may not halt the pattern of intra-party conflict in the Ondo State chapter of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), especially when the imbroglio is linked with next year’s succession politics. There is a need to erase the feeling of political loss by members of the Aketi Movement, especially those who had tied their political survival to the existence or survival of the deceased governor.

    The scenario at the swearing-in was somehow disappointing. What was required was a solemn ceremony in honour of the departed chief executive and not garrulous behaviour by the band of praise singers. Crowd control is important on such occasions. It would have prevented the regression to mockery by some noise-making, uncouth rascals who thought they were doing Governor Aiyedatiwa a favour during the brief ceremony.

    The resignation of some aides to the late governor may be partly due to their position during the protracted conflict between the camp of the deceased governor and the new helmsman. It also conveyed a sense of insecurity, real or imaginary, in the government circle. They left with heavy hearts, having lost their leader to protracted illness, and apparently for fear of anticipatory action against them. But this is debatable.

    Every human being, being a political animal, necessarily covets power. There is an inherent spirit of competition and antagonism, which serves as the propeller. The front seat is quite alluring and electrifying. Yet, the man in the saddle, being also the controller of huge resources and distribution of largesse, is assailed by the vituperations of jealous rivals in the competitive political game.

    Many have aspired to the Ondo number one seat but without success. Many are still gazing at the seat ahead of next year’s primary, where Aiyedatiwa may become a formidable candidate, and the general election where the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other smaller parties are waiting for the APC candidate. These gladiators will be interested in how the governor will run the affairs of the state.

    No doubt, his performance may be one of the factors that would shape the shadow poll of the ruling party and even the primary of the major opposition party that is praying for an implosion in Ondo APC.

    The onus is on Aiyedatiwa to reflect on the challenges of governance now resting on his shoulders. The immediate task is to rebuild confidence and unite the party and the divided State Executive Council (Exco).

    As a leader, he is not expected to seek vendetta but to view past incidents, including the threat of impeachment, as part of politics. No governor of a diverse and enlightened Ondo State can successfully rule by dictatorship. All shades of opinion have to be absorbed through consultations and constant engagements with the party, prominent indigenes, and the masses.

    The new governor of Ondo should emulate his Ekiti neighbour, who is ruling with humility, fear of God, and respect for the party that midwifed his administration.

    In making other critical appointments, including that of the deputy governor, Aiyedatiwa can pander to the party, based on the criterion of zoning or rotation that has fostered inclusion and a sense of belonging. He should choose a competent deputy who can complement his abilities.

    It is noteworthy that Aiyedatiwa has promised to complete the projects embarked upon by his predecessor as a key player in the immediate past administration. If he keeps to that promise, his administration would be rightly perceived as one of continuity. Although some relations exerted influence on Akeredolu, he was adjudged incorruptible. Therefore, Aiyedatiwa should emulate his late boss by shunning graft, sleaze, greed, and the culture of ‘steal and go’.

    It is important to bear in mind at this initial stage that the governor would have to seek a higher degree of partnership with the House of Assembly in an atmosphere of cooperative separation of powers. He would have to moderate his actions and steps in sensitivity to the presence of an active legislature that once threatened to end his political career.

    The late Akeredolu picked Aiyedatiwa initially as deputy because he said he was loyal and consistent. He somehow predicted that as he was bowing out, Lucky Aiyedatiwa should move in. It has come to pass. Anybody who will work with the new governor should also be ready to be loyal to him. Aiyedatiwa has not been fully transformed by power. Commissioners, special advisers, and other aides of Akeredolu, who he is likely to retain, should embrace the reality and adjust to the style of the new sheriff in town.

    Two challenges will confront his leadership. Ondo APC is warming up for a by-election in an Akoko federal constituency. The chapter is also preparing for the governorship primary next February. It will be a big test for his government.

    The second challenge is that of retaining the state for APC in the 2024 general election.

    Eyes are on Ondo State. More importantly,  eyes will be on Aiyedatiwa.

  • Rivers of troubles

    Rivers of troubles

    Rivers is a state of political warriors who are addicted to crises. It is a wealthy state; richer than many others put together. Its wealth has brought it fortunes, development and progress, to the envy of its peers across the lopsided federated country.

    But, the reason there is so much crisis in the Southsouth state may also be due to its wealth. Its pride is its limitless oil from vast fields. Its gas is still being flared, to the consternation of those who scolded successive Federal Governments for a shortfall in vision and productivity.

     The summary is that those in the corridors of power, who have access to the state’s wealth and resources, are also in the vantage position to deploy them into the war of supremacy and egoism.

    So rich is the state that in the last 23 years it has made progress under its three governors under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – Dr. Peter Odili, Rotimi Amaechi, and Nyesom Wike. In fact, many expect the state to soar to a greater horizon of progress under Governor Siminalayi Fubara because he has models to emulate. His career as a civil servant was like an indirect tutelage under the previous administrations.

    Rivers State is also reputed for the ambitions of its governors. The three former governors were presidential aspirants who fought hard battles in their bid to secure the tickets of their political parties. The pillar of their aspirations may have been the deep purse of their oil-rich state. But the tickets eluded all of them.

    A permanent feature of the state is successor-predecessor crisis. It has become a tradition and culture that is inherited and transmitted from one dispensation to another. Once a crisis breaks out in Rivers, reconciliation becomes futile. The state is polarised. The situation degenerates into the survival of the fittest.

    Although a heterogeneous state, ethnic tension has been minimal, except when political gladiators deliberately enlisted ethnic numerical strength into personal battles. Neither is religion a major issue. Almost all indigenes of the state from the diverse social formations are Christians.

    But those who trouble the peace of the ever buoyant state are not the commoners; it’s the privileged leaders. All of them are closely bound together by political ties. The battle among the political elite, backed by many prominent traditional rulers in the state, who were once active politicians and public servants, is intense because the stakes are always high.

    In extreme cases, when some categories of militants and even cultists were on the prowl, they were politically induced. External forces are not waging a war on Rivers; the state has been waging a war on itself.

    There is no godfather in the Southsouth state that has not regretted his last cardinal decision of installing a lackey as successor.

    Odili, eminent medical doctor, Third Republic deputy governor and governor for eight years between 1999 and 2007, groomed his boy, Amaechi, for succession. Despite the stiff resistance by former President Olusegun Obasanjo and other forces who brought an interloper, Clemens Omehia, Amaechi succeeded his godfather. That was the end of the story.

    The godfather and his godson later parted ways. The cause of the rift was not brought to the public domain. If Obasanjo had allowed the PDP to conduct a free and fair presidential primary, perhaps, Odili would have picked the ticket, having seized the momentum from the onset.

    After leaving office, the experienced politician was left in the cold. But an accomplished, calm and mature statesman, Odili also let go at the state level and never raised an eyebrow at the state affairs, policies and programmes when Amaechi was in the saddle.

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    Although the anti-graft body, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), was after him, the old man got a rare reprieve. The court granted him an order of perpetual injunction that he should never be troubled for life.

    Though an elder statesmen and a septuagenarian, Odili has not really retired from politics. He is a PDP elder held in high esteem. He lives a life of contentment and he has some peace of mind.

    These are the rare happenstances that appeared to have eluded his successor and beneficiary of his succession plan. Young and vibrant, Amaechi is a lucky politician who was transformed from Odili’s personal aide to a member of the House of Assembly. Perceived as a loyal son, he became Speaker without much stress, and after eight years, sat on the number one seat vacated by his benefactor.

    Unfortunately, Amaechi, who also became the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), could not hand over to his preferred candidate, Dr. Dakuku Peterside, having left his party for the All Progressives Congress (APC). Being the stronghold of the PDP, Rivers people made Nyesom Wike their governor.

    The parting of ways between Amaechi and Wike was confounding to their common friends and compatriots. When Amaechi was forced by circumstances to temporarily leave the country when the political heat was put on him, it was Wike who held forte in the course of the litigation; Amaechi’s ambition, which in OBJ’s calculation, had developed a ‘K-Leg,’ was being ‘straightened’ in court. Wike was Amaechi’s Chief of Staff before he was appointed the Minister of State for Education by former President Goodluck Jonathan.

    As Wike succeeded Amaechi, both resumed full hostilities. Having under-studied the former governor’s utilisation of resources to fight partisan battles, Wike gained greater mastery of the art. The gulf deepened between Wike and Amaechi, who, despite being a federal minister, could not persuade the central government to deploy its federal might to unseat him in 2019 or frustrate his 2023 succession plan.

    Wike triumphed. But little did he guess that he would not have peace afterwards. The current Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister understood the calculations that led to the choice of Fubara as his anointed candidate. The former Accountant-General knows why he became the beneficiary of the succession plan. The cause of the rift may be that after power landed on his laps, interests could no longer align,  leading to a deep gulf.

    Fubara has been an observer of the recurrent successor/predecessor crises that have been the hallmark of Rivers, having worked in the civil service in the last two decades and risen to the pinnacle of his career under the civilian regimes that were characterised by intra and inter-party wars of attrition.

    What is striking in Rivers is that no single successor/predecessor crisis has been resolved. Reconciliation between benefactors and beneficiaries has often been stalled. Although President Bola Tinubu has intervened once in the current impasse, his admonition went on deaf ears. The President is may still condider bringing them back to Aso Villa the second time for a truce.

    What now preoccupies the two warring camps in Rivers is not effective governance in the state but how to win the battle and how not to lose the war. Attention is inadvertently diverted from the pursuit of laudable policies and programmes. Much energy is being dissipated on crisis management.

    A state needs an atmosphere of peace for the continuous works of development. That harmony is currently absent in Rivers. The state is polarised and, as the acrimony festers, both sides are liable to commit more errors.

    Already, the faulty mathematics of sustaining the numerical superiority and supremacy of four state lawmakers over 27 stares people in the face. Since Rivers is bouyant, it can afford to pull down the House of Assembly complex. A new one will be built soonest. Then, any judge can award ex-parte injuction at will without putting the other side on notice. The confusion can be justified by the narrow minded enemies of democracy as part of politics.

    Let the gladiators, combatants, their allies and followers on both sides realise that while they know the beginning of the war, they cannot accurately predict its end.

    On Thursday, elder statesman Chief Rufus Ada George appealed to the warring parties to show decorum and elevate the collective interest of the state over their particularistic agenda.

    Warning against further  provocative comments, he said: “I am deeply pained and worried over these embarrassing events and flagrant demonstration of impunity, power, and lawlessness because of the grave danger they portend to the peace and security of Rivers State and Nigeria as a whole.

    “As the oldest former Governor of Rivers State, I call on all former governors and their deputies to close ranks, come together, and collectively and frankly speak to our younger colleagues in the best interest of the state.”

     The former governor pleaded with the warriors to prioritise Rivers State first and above all other personal, sectional and parochial interests.

    Hopefully, reason and wisdom will triumph over ego, arrogance, selfishness and destructive self-interest.

  • Wanted: Southwest Infrastructural Development Commission

    Wanted: Southwest Infrastructural Development Commission

    The Southwest is reputed for scoring many firsts in Nigeria. It is a politically conscious zone. It is the nation’s economic capital. It is the balancing zone. It is the most accommodating zone. It is a very productive geo-political region.

    Endowed with vast human and material resources, the zone has made invaluable contributions and enormous sacrifices for the country’s survival. The leaders of the region’s six states are loyal to the cause of a united, prosperous and equitable federal Nigeria.

    But the Southwest is in pains. It is battling infrastructural decay. The deficit is confounding. Most of the region’s roads are death traps, almost impassable.

    Many roads in the zone were constructed decades ago. With thousands of vehicles plying them and beset by years of poor maintenance, the lifespan of the roads wear out rapidly. Palliative work on them is a waste of time and resources. Unless they are reconstructed and rehabilitated to befit modern highways, plying them would remain harrowing.

    Throughout the six states, the awful picture of dilapidated federal highways stares the government and the residents of Yoruba land in the face.

    From Lagos through Ogun to Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti states, the dilapidation is ubiquitous. It portrays the image of a region that once occupied the Olympian heights in development and modernity in the First and Second Republics. Today, the Southwest groans in utter neglect, aloofness, suspension, failed projects, and complaints by contractors.

    People of other zones even make jest of the Southwest, saying they should direct their grievances to the leading lights in the region who once held sway at the Presidency, the Federal Ministry of Works, and the Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA).

    Others berate federal legislators from the states for not effectively articulating the collective interest of the region. But, for the bad federal roads in the Southwest, the Federal Government is to blame.

    Apart from the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, 90per cent of federal roads have become an eyesore, with potholes, damaged bridges. They constitute threats to travellers.

    It took the Federal Government more than two decades to complete the Lagos/Ibadan Expressway. Commuters had to endure endless traffic snarl. They include routine passengers, devotees and visitors to religious camps – Redeemed Church of Christ, Deeper Life Church, Mountain of Fire and NASFAT.

    The problem was compounded by indiscipline by road users, particularly reckless drivers who violated traffic rules and made traffic control a herculean task for traffic wardens and security agencies.

    The completion of the road, the busiest in Nigeria, if not Africa, has brought relief to Nigerians. The credit goes to the Muhammadu Buhari administration. It may now be possible to travel from the former federal capital to Ibadan within one hour.

    But there ends the cheery news. Other important roads connecting Lagos to other Southwest states beg for attention. For example, the Lagos/Abeokuta road creates a nightmare for people who live in Agbado/Sango axis and Abeokuta-bound passengers who spend hours when vehicular movements are stalled.

    Former Works Minister Babatunde Fashola, following the inspection of the Ikorodu/Sagamu road, hurriedly drafted contractors to the site. Hope brightened that the inter-state road would be fixed. Unfortunately, the road could not be completed before the tenure of the last administration expired. The few kilometres within the Sagamu end of the road, which have not been reconstructed, are impassable during the rainy season. It must be stated that the heavy load-bearing traffic cause the rapid wear and tear on the roads.

    The towns and villages along Itamaga-Ikorodu-Itoikin/Ijebu-Ode road are in agony. Those from Agbowa and Ota-Ikosi who reside in Ikorodu prefer to embark on an Israelite journey from Owutu-Agric through Ojota to Victoria Island, Lekki and Epe, before going to their native towns. That is too stressful.

    The road, which passes through Imota, Maya, and Adamo, used to be busy. After Maya, it becomes lonely; completely deserted because of gullies. It portrays infrastructural marginalisation on a grand scale.

    Such is also the harrowing experience among residents of Lekki and Epe who always have to contend with gridlock. It is hectic for them to pass through the corridor, especially those who work on Victoria Island, Lagos Island, Mainland and the suburbs.

    It is worrisome. These poor roads are to the detriment of Lagosians and visitors from the hinterland who have businesses to transact, or those who visit the metropolis for medicare.

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    Is the Lagos/Badagry road project still on course? It was half-completed from Mile 2 to Iyana-Iba. From that spot through the Lagos State University (LASU) in Ojo, up to Iyana Isashi to Ijanikin and Badagry, it is another story of abandonment.

    It is a prime international route linking Nigeria with neighbouring Benin Republic. Apart from LASU, other important institutions line the long stretch of the road. They include the Post-Graduate Medical College of Nigeria, the Federal Government College, Foreign Service Academy, Adeniran Ogunsanya University of Education, the Mathematical Centre, the French Village and the Administrative Staff College of Nigeria (ASCON) in Badagry.

    Also in a deplorable state are the Sagamu-Ijebu-Ode road, Ijebu-Ode/Ore road, Ijebu-Ode/Ibadan road, Sango-Ota/Idiroko, Agbara/Lusada, Lafenwa/Egbado North, Abeokuta/Ilaro, Sango/Agbado, and Sagamu/Abeokuta roads, all display signs of stress.

    Federal roads in Oyo State are also in disrepair. Those linking up the state with its neighbours are in a sorry state. The Ibadan-Ogbomoso road is taking too long to complete; the Ogbomoso/Ilorin highway is nothing to write home about. But the worst in that axis is the Ibadan-Ife-Ilesa road linking Oyo and Osun states to Ekiti and Ondo states. It is a pitiable sight to behold.

    In Ondo State, the lamentation over dilapidated roads cuts across the entire state. The non-dualisation of Ore-Ondo road has made it accident-prone. The Akure/Ikere road is horrible. The contract has been awarded but construction has been piecemeal. The plight of commuters on the Owo-Ikare road is unsavoury. People travelling to the North from the Southwest have abandoned the route and shifted to Itawure-Efon/Ikole/Omuo route.

    The most neglected roads are in Ekiti State. The disrepair among the roads makes the residents to wonder if the state is still a part of Nigeria. The only motorable road in that axis is the short road connecting Iwaraja in Osun State with Efon-Alaaye in Ekiti State.

    From Ilesa to Ijebu-Jesa to Itawure, the picture of dangerous roads persists. The federal road linking Itawure to Erio, Aramoko, Igede, and Iyin is the worst in the Southwest. Also, the Ado-Iworoko-Ifaki-Ido-Ilupeju-Ayegbaju-Ikole-Omuo road has collapsed. The Ikere-Akure is a disaster.

    Roads are critical to the economic growth and wellbeing of the people. They are a factor in development and rural integration. Good roads boost agricultural development. In the absence of a good road network, farmers cannot bring their produce to the market. The perishable produce harvested in distant farmlands rot before they can get to their destinations.

    It is also roads that facilitate the transportation of raw materials to factories and industries so that finished products from factories can be conveyed to the desired markets. It implies that good roads reduce transportation costs.

    Also, road construction creates jobs for skilled, unskilled and semi-skilled people. There is a multiplier effect. Apart from engineers and suppliers of raw materials on site, food vendors are also engaged in the production chain. There is thus a nexus between effective transport system and national productivity.

    Conversely, a bad road may be an invitation to avoidable calamity or tragedy. Vehicles live out their lifespan very rapidly. Plying bad roads means that a huge man-hour is lost and commuters are denied travel comfort.

    Many avoidable accidents are attributable to the poor state of the roads. Security agents have also said there is a relationship between crime rate, particularly armed robbery and kidnapping for ransom. The  negligence by government is to the citizens’ peril. The people perish on roads when government displays indifference to the people’s plight in their journeys.

    Southwest states need to press for more federal attention. Their federal legislators should lobby for more budgetary allocation to infrastructural development in the zone. Their governors need to synergise with Works Minister Dave Umahi so that the states can undertake the construction of roads in their domains and get refunds afterwards from the Federal Government.

    The central government needs to declare a state of emergency on its roads in the Sothwest. Senators and House of Representatives members from the region must push for the setting up of Southwest Infrastructural Development Commission to tackle the infrastructural challenge in the zone. Southwest deserves more in a federal Nigeria.

  • Ondo political crisis and Abuja Accord

    Ondo political crisis and Abuja Accord

    Trust, once destroyed, takes a long time to rebuild. In politics, what is expected is total, undiluted loyalty, no matter the test of time.

    Those who have been in politics for many years are conversant with these rudiments of relationship in the corridor of power. Those who are likely to enter its murky waters later should start developing endurance strategies.

    Politics is beautiful, yet hazardous. The ultimate goal, according to Obafemi Awolowo, is the attainment of power. Though power is alluring, it often becomes intoxicating. Officialdom is electrifying, yet slippery.

    Government is a lucrative business and the only route to it is through politics. In our clime, this has become more of an occupation than a vocation. In the corridors of power, competition is stiff; the battle is better imagined. Power, as it is now internalised, is not served a la carte. Those in power are strengthened by resources and the ability to wield it by coercion. The losers in the power game are left in the cold. They become liabilities; they slip through circumstantial vulnerability.

    The dark side of politicking is that once a crisis erupts, fence-mending becomes compelling yet difficult to achieve. A crisis resolution is as tedious as creating and escalating conflicts. Politicians who easily forgive a partisan sin of betrayal are rare. It is doubtful if anyone, even if he tries hard to forgive, can ever forget what may be perceived as backstabbing from a political family member.

    The lesson of the Ondo State political crisis is the neglect of the ethics of moderation, which, in Plato’s view, proposes that a rational balance should be maintained in all human pursuits.

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    This requires a sort of native intelligence. Besides, navigating the difficult political waters requires a good knowledge of history which lesson is often ignored by actors at their own detriment.

    The current political impasse, exemplified by the collapse of loyalty, fidelity and trust, is typical of Ondo politics. The state is addicted to governor-deputy governor rift, which has often polarised the ruling parties and drawn negative attention to the state.

    In the Second Republic, the reticent Governor Adekunle Ajasin and his deputy, the mercurial Chief Akin Omoboriowo, who were paired by their leader, Awo, to complement each other, parted ways in their first term; in fact, barely within two years. The protracted crisis that ensued defied solution, even to the surprise of the national leadership of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).

    Many years after, Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, who is too direct, undiplomatic, frank and predictable, was at loggerheads with his erstwhile deputy, Agboola Ajayi, a highly talented and experienced grassroots actor with an uncanny capacity for maneuvering, almost a maverick.

    The sources of conflicts are similar to what currently obtains. The accompanying predicament is also the same. As the number two eyes the seat of number one, there is resistance and split in the once indivisible and united camp, thereby creating stress and distress for the ruling platform.

    In the process of maintaining loyalty or shifting alliance, neutrality becomes a cardinal infraction. Clandestine meetings are held. There is mutual suspicion. Rival camps indulge in bickering, rumour mongering, propaganda, embellishments, campaign of calumny, character assassination and mutual liquidation.

    In this particular circumstance, there is a rush of emotion. There is no vacancy at Alagbaka House in Akure, the seat of government. The chief occupant is only indisposed. No mortal is insulated from illness. It is pathetic of the Ondo State APC, which midwifed a government, that it could not put its house in order. While the opposition is lamenting being out of power, those in power cannot manage their achievements and exploits.

    This period of protracted illness, political uncertainty and anxiety calls for sober reflection. The gladiators are unfair to their leader and custodian of the mandate, Akeredolu, who assembled a formidable team that is now being divided over next year’s succession game.

    It is a failure of leadership on the part of the deputy governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, that he cannot hold forte effectively, be the alter ego of his boss, ensure unity, foster cohesion, inspire team spirit, make sacrifice and promote an attitude of abnegation. That is why the State Executive Council (Exco) meeting could not hold for three months and the feeling started growing in the public domain that governance was on hold in the Sunshine state.

    The position of deputy governor in the Nigerian presidential democracy is very delicate. A state’s Number Two citizen is the typical spare tyre. But, he could be easily catapulted to the front burner during an emergency. To weather the storm, the occupant needs patience, skill, tact, humility and support of the Exco, party leadership and other critical stakeholders.

    The distance between the powers of the governor and his deputy is wide. As the vice president of Nigeria is not perceived as the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces – since he is not so called by the constitution – the deputy governor is not designated the Deputy Chief Security Officer of the state. Neither can any deputy governor be chairman of the state executive council.

    The constitution favours the transfer of power to the deputy governor to act, in certain circumstances. But because of the level of political culture in the country, the title of “acting governor” is a mere appellation when the ailing governor is still alive, signing bills and giving directives, although he is not in Akure, the state capital. The loyalty of the majority still goes to the boss, who is kept abreast of events by commissioners, special advisers and other aides that are appointees of the governor and colleagues of the deputy governor.

    If deputy governors are conscious of these limitations, the option left to them is to embrace the reality, endure the pains of constitutional restrictions and exhibit unconditional loyalty, which is the only asset that can endear them to their power-loaded executive governors, the only undisputed leaders, who casually delegate powers to them.

    Paradoxically, across the states of the federation, many members of a governor’s team could be envious of the powerless office of the deputy governor because of the prospect it holds in an unexpected moment. Political envy is inevitable, and it stems from the fact that if there is a cordial relationship between the governor and his deputy, the latter’s ambition to succeed his principal is a monumental threat to the aspirations of other stalwarts and competitors.

    Also, if the unexpected happens, the deputy governor may be the ultimate beneficiary. But, it is wishful thinking to anticipate any calamity. God is the decider of human fate.

    Akeredolu, in his wisdom, picked Aiyedatiwa as his deputy. Being from Ondo South Senatorial District, where APC will source for its next governorship candidate, many believed that he had an upper hand. At what stage did the gulf occur between the deputy and the governor? This is a question for Aiyedatiwa.

    It is gratifying that the APC national leader, President Bola Tinubu, has intervened in the Ondo crisis and brokered a truce. Those calling for a legal solution are correct, but elders who have suggested a political solution are not fools.

    Having provided a rare opportunity for soft-landing for the two warring camps, the terms of the political solution agreed upon at Abuja before the president should be strictly adhered to. The peace deal, if well implemented, can lead to suspension of tension.

    Aiyedatiwa is at the centre of the crisis and controversy. Indeed, the deputy governor, his recuperating boss, the House of Assembly and the party are in the eye of the storm. The onus is on him to ensure that the peace accord does not suffer. He has a chance of either becoming the gainer or loser, depending on how the deal is implemented.

    Compliance with the Abuja resolution is challenging. It involves the principle of “give and take.” What even matters now is not the survival of Ayedatiwa or Akeredolu but the welfare of the state and survival of the party that gave birth to the government through the electorate. Leaders of both camps are expected to be less inflexible but more condescending. Hypocritical commitment may herald a collective doom.

    The implications are as follows: since Ayedatiwa has made a unique commitment to party leaders that he will sign an undated letter, it is incumbent on him to avoid any act that will compel the lawmakers to exploit the situation to remove him. It is an unusual, unprecedented and delicate situation.

    It is easy for the House of Assembly to comply with the discontinuation of the impeachment move, if the peace terms are not violated. But, there is a challenge. The deputy governor has to be wary of the three personalities monitoring his activities. Speaker Olamide Oladiji is head of the aggrieved House of Assembly that has an axe to grind with him. APC State Chairman Ade Adetimehin is a staunch loyalist of Akeredolu. Secretary to the State Government Oladunni Odu is Aiyedatiwa’s rival in the quest for the governorship ticket of the party in next year’s election.

    In the final analysis, Aiyedatiwa is now at the centre of the matter, more than his boss, whose indisposition in the course of his tenure has thrown up the current brouhaha. The deputy governor is in the position to either ensure the success or failure of the peace deal.

  • Obasanjo and his ‘Afro-centred democracy’

    Obasanjo and his ‘Afro-centred democracy’

    Olusegun Obasanjo, Egba chief and former President of Nigeria, has an axe to grind with what he has described as imported liberal democracy from the Western world.

    It is not working for Africa, he said, adding that it has ignored the history of the continent, its multi-cultural complexities and other peculiarities.

    The old soldier and tactician also posed as a political scholar branding his proposal as novel. He called for a largely vague ‘Afro-democracy’ which should be able to resolve, in his view, the unworkability of the foreign, distant and inexplicable legacy of the advanced countries that African naive supervisors of the transition programmes, including himself, copied as a viable system of government.

    Obasanjo’s grouse is that liberal democracy is expensive and difficult to manage. At a high-level consultation on Rethinking Western Liberal Democracy in Africa held at Green Resort Legacy of his Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, the former President said Western democracy cannot foster good governance and development in Africa because it is not home-grown.

    According to him, the current system has become “government of a few people over all the people or population and these few people are representatives of only some of the people and not fully representatives of all the people. Invariably, the majority of the people are wittingly or unwittingly kept out”.

    More importantly, Obasanjo submitted that democracy in the United States only sustains “the rule of the majority” which tends to ignore, neglect and exclude the minority. His assessment is that liberal democracy only has a negative civilising influence on Africa.

    Obasanjo may be correct on one point: African countries have, over the years, been dependent on Western values and ideas, which may have stifled the development of local political initiatives. Consequently, this has painted Africa as the Dark Continent of Copycats.

    Modern technology is not a native of Africa. The continent has depended on Western aircraft, cars, medicines, computers and various ways of life. This addiction extends to the importation of the parliamentary system, which has paled into the legacy of the colonial interlopers, and presidential democracy, which Obasanjo introduced when he was military Head of State.

    However, there was no evidence to show that the old, traditional political system guaranteed more development in Africa. Some scholars have suggested that if it had not been truncated by Western invaders, maybe, the situation would have been different.

    Feudalism, a dominant social system in the Northern part of Nigeria, came under criticism. Land was held by nobles or aristocrats in exchange for labour or service by peasants who worshipped the masters for a little reward that kept them in servitude or bondage.

    Although the traditional society was used to monarchy, which has been in existence from time immemorial, the emerging class of nationalist fighters clashed with the system as colonialism asserted power and authority.

    Some natural rulers were perceived as despotic, tyrannical, dictatorial, barbaric, ritualistic, and corrupt. They were dismissed as agents of indirect rule foisted on the natives. The colonial masters hijacked power from these hapless traditional rulers and restored it to ordinary citizens. This appeared to be what the nationalist politicians symbolised. The House of Chiefs, which was established to accommodate the royal fathers, took the back seat, with members exercising ceremonial powers.

    Some saw parliamentary system as less evil, less expensive and more permissive and accommodating to the role of opposition in democracy. However, the First Republic operators of the system were problematic.

    As the stiff competition for power by antagonistic political leaders who manipulated ethnicity and religion drew the polity on edge, the military penetrated through the cracks on the wall.

    Many political leaders even lacked an understanding of the limitations to their powers under the parliamentary constitution. For example, tension rose when President Nnamidi Azikiwe was reluctant to ask Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa to form his government in 1964, after the federal parliamentary polls, until eminent jurists from the four zones intervened.

    Also, Zik, the ceremonial president, said he could not imagine working hollow with power-loaded Prime Minister Balewa.

    As the rigging of the 1965 regional elections led to violence, the military intervened. For the next 13 years, the military, which Obasanjo symbolised, loomed large. The atrocities of legitimate civilian authorities paled into insignificance. Soldiers of fortune pillaged the treasury. Some almost became richer than the country.

    In 1979, as Obasanjo started implementing the transition programme, he said the best may not emerge as president. Was that the fault of liberal democracy which ensured that the best candidate became the leader in the Western world?

    General Obasanjo accepted that the parliamentary system was not good and opted for the presidential democracy, based on the recommendations of the Constitution Review Committee and the Constituent Assembly. But the system soon caved in, no thanks to political upheavals, rigging and corruption. What is important is why it collapsed the second time in Nigeria while it blossomed in the advanced countries.

    Could the blame for the annulment of a free and fair election be heaped on the practice of liberal democracy? Was it not an affront by some African dictators who saw power as a status symbol instead of a means for service delivery?

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    There appears to be no alternative to liberal democracy unless a country desires to retrace its steps into backwardness. It is representative in nature, if effectively practised, if sovereignty is upheld, if individual liberty is protected and the rule of law is allowed to prevail. It means that there should be an independent judiciary.

    Also, in contrast to the parliamentary system, presidential democracy emphasises the separation of powers and accompanying checks and balances.  In a heterogeneous society, political parties exist to compete for power on a level-playing field and a multi-party system is a natural element, although Nigeria’s experience tends to support the idea of a two-party system. At least, two persistent, viable political parties, or the pattern of two alliances, could as well be characteristic of liberal democracy in Nigeria.

    The question is: what did Obasanjo do to make it workable when he was president for eight years? How did his government obey court orders? What happened in Odi? Where is the report of the Abuja confab? Is it the fault of Western democracy that African leaders love to rig elections and seek to illegally extend their tenure? Is do-or-die a good legacy?

    The all-knowing hypocrite lives to expectation through his inexplicable explanations about what went wrong, although his demoralising, anti-democratic practices were a factor in political retrogression. If a man who had been privileged to rule, both as a soldier and civilian, for 11 years, failed woefully to reposition his country on the path of democracy, but now turns around, in his day dreaming, to canvass some sorts of bogus and blank Afrocentric democracy,  he is, without mincing words, a confusionist and a bundle of illogicality.

    The challenge for African leaders, instead of indulging in fantasy and shadow chasing, is to do soul-searching and embrace the reality that though political systems matter, the more important factors are the operators of the system.

    They should strive to build, nurture, protect, defend and strengthen the institutions of democracy in their respective countries. Their military should also bear in mind that coup is old-fashioned and tyrannical rule is outdated.

    The Parliament, being the representative organ, should come up with laws that will usher in reforms in aid of socio-economic and political development. Such reforms should halt the pattern of unitarianism and usher in federalism, empower the states to grow at their pace and give opportunity for healthy competition to component units.

    The president of a highly heterogeneous country should know that the best legacies he can bequeath are restoration of federalism, restructuring or power devolution and creation of an atmosphere for unity in diversity.

    Political parties should mirror the earlier ideological outlook, which the government they may midwife should reflect in their governance agenda. They should also be sensitive to their fundamental responsibility of political education for voters to make informed choices during elections.

    The government should promote public cause, being bound by the contract between it and diverse electorate. Its watchword should be accountability. Indeed, liberal democracy is not antithetical to transparency, accountability and good governance.

    People complain about the cost of governance because they do not see evidence of increased spending on developmental projects that herald a new lease of life. There is too much emphasis on  the growing recurrent expenditure than on capital expenditure. This threatens funding for developmental projects.

    For votes to count, the electoral commission should conduct free, fair and credible polls that will accord legitimacy to a democratic government.

    The civil society is currently battling an identity crisis. A strong civil society is indispensable to the cause of liberal democracy.

    Africa will do well when the accompaniments of liberal democracy function effectively and politicians really perceive power as a means of service and not an avenue for stealing and displaying crass arrogance.

  • Unfinished battle for federalism

    Unfinished battle for federalism

    Nigeria, the most populous black nation-state in the world, appears to be in a fix.

    For how long can it continue to pretend to be a federal nation-state?

    No doubt, the “mere geographical expression” is retarded by a unitarist model masquerading as federalism. The solution is a return to a proper federal principle, and many believe that the current administration is in a vantage position to redress the injustice of centralisation.

    The ‘skewed or lopsided federation’ is facing the most challenging test of survival. The Nigerian brand of federalism is on trial. To its intended beneficiaries, it is confusing, divisive, unproductive, provocative and fundamentally unjust. All over the country, feelings of anger and revolt by ethnic nations ooze from the fear of domination, marginalization, deprivations and injustice, making the trembling antagonistic ethnic groups to now brainstorm on how to re-define their place in the disputed Nigerian federation.

    Indisputably, the beleaguered country has paled into a poor ethnically-segmented country battling to survive a unitary system, aptly foisted on it by military interlopers. Sixty three years after independence, there is a combative regression to the pre-independence battle cry for restructuring at a time developed countries expect the African sleeping giant to be a continental model of federal democracy.

    Nigeria’s defective federal system has become its albatross. It is a skewed arrangement, with an inbuilt lopsided and marginalising distributive process that has heralded colossal injustice and induced intense agitations. The major bone of contention is the over-centralisation and monopolisation of power by a distant central government to the detriment of pauperised and disadvantaged component units in the heterogeneous country. The notion of unity in diversity has been displaced, owning to prolonged perceived structural defects and institutional deformities, which deny the reality of peculiarities in a plural society.

    The country is enveloped by protracted identity, participation and distributive crises. In its current fragility, it totters on in a self-inflicted ‘federal decay.’ The troubled country reflects the awful picture of an amalgam of incompatible social formations. It is gradually being submerged in growing ethnic, religious and other centrifugal tensions.

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    The victim of the identity crisis is national cohesion. The gains of national unity are wiped out by the revival of primordial sentiments. The inevitable emotional detachment from the deceitful federal conception constitutes an obstacle to the development of national outlook.

    Also, participation crisis is accentuated by the struggle of ethnic champions for power at the centre because, until recently, the ‘sectional Federal Government’, which has monopolised state power and resources to the detriment of aggrieved federating units, blocked the channels of decentralisation.

     Cries of despair and despondency by few surviving founding fathers and their lieutenants fill the air. Obviously, they are seized by nostalgia, having witnessed the adoption and practice of unfettered federalism from 1946 under the Richard and Macpherson constitutions, and in the First and Second Republics. To them, even at the twilight of life, true federalism is still the answer.

    Can restructuring stem the loming disaster? Many subscribe to the compelling argument that restructuring will solidify federalism, foster good governance, give a sense of belonging to aggrieved regions and states, and restore hope. Thus, to salvage the edifice that was built on the false colonial foundation erected by Lord Fredrick Lugard in 1914, political leaders and other stakeholders are exploring the alternative route to nation building to avoid disintegration.

     International agencies, which had previously alerted Nigeria to a prospect of a ‘failed state,’ are urging speed, warning that delay could be dangerous. The re-enactment of the Yugoslavian and Czechoslovakian experiences may be catastrophic for Nigeria and its neighbours.

    Across the six geo-political zones, attention is being re-focused on the contentious national question. Along this line alone, he the politics of inclusive discussion is unhindered. There seems to be an agreement that Nigeria faces a perilous future, unless the current  system gives way for a re-vitalised and workable federal process, variously described or interpreted by diverse stakeholders as ‘federal configuration,’ ‘federal redesign,’  ‘federal reformation,’ ‘review of federalism,’ federal re-configuration,’ federal renewal,’ ‘federal re-engineering,’ ‘true federalism and ‘political restructuring.’

     In extreme cases, unguarded outbursts and calls for confederation or a loose federation, a re-worked federation, secession and outright war have been troubling. These extreme options are being advertised by rebellious militant groups,  ‘sit-at-home’ campaigners and other invisible protesters in the Eastern Region.

     There is no consensus on all the elements of restructuring on the front burner. Restructuring is a broad concept. But, there seems to be an agreement on the cardinal goal of restructuring. It presupposes the existence of a structure built on a faulty platform or foundation that requires to be rebuilt or rearranged.

    Restructuring, in the view of Kunle Amuwo, political scientist and University of Ibadan teacher, is intended to lay an institutional foundation for a more just and equitable sharing of political space by multi-national groups cohabiting in a federal polity.  Other advocates would agree with him that  “the strategic objective seems to be the solidifying-or perhaps, merely engendering-of a sense of national community.”

    The implication is that the resolution of the contentious national question is germane to peaceful co-existence among the diverse ethnic groups.

    Restructuring is also suggestive of an inevitable compromise; a display of the spirit of political bargaining by the distraught component units of the potentially fragile federation. As Amuwo put it, “restructuring is a better appreciation of the need for tolerance and respect for civil and civic rights of both aggrieved ethnic majorities and marginalised ethnic minorities.” This line of thought is consistent with the position of ambivalent protesters, who despite their adamant position on restructuring, have reiterated their commitment to a united and indivisible Nigeria.

    Although the clamour for restructuring is now new, it has now become the main issue in the polity. The debate was kicked-off in the eighties by the activist-lawyer, the late Chief Alao Aka-Bashorun, who called for the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC). Following the annulment of the historic 1993 presidential election won by the late Chief Moshood Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, intensified the clamour.  But, what is remarkable is that past opponents of the agitation, including former military rulers and other prominent Northern leaders, have retraced their steps and lent their voices to the crusade. Former military and civilian President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have decried the evil of unitarism and endorsed the popular demand. Even, former Military President Ibrahim Babangida once admitted that it is the solution. Since restructuring has also become a campaign issue in general elections, many politicians are always threading the path of populism by reaching out to Nigerians on the borrowed platform of restructuring.

    Two decades ago, Afenifere Deputy Leader, the late Chief Bola Ige, predicted that a cloud of uncertainty was hovering over Nigeria. He said the country may not survive the tragedy, unless there was an agreement among the tribes on the basis for cohabitation. “Do you Nigerians want to live together in the same country? If yes, on what terms?” he asked. Echoing the slain Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, the Yoruba Assembly also warned that Nigeria risked disintegration, if its defective structure is preserved and the modalities for peaceful co-existence are not spelt out and mutually agreed upon. The Ohaneze Ndigbo, the Southsouth Assembly, and the Middle Belt Forum are singing the same chorus.

    Recently, in Ado Ekiti, foremost lawyer, Chief Afe Babalola and former Commonwealth Secretary-General Chief Emeka Anyaoku implored the Federal Government not to turn a deaf ear.

    The pro-restructuring crusade woke up the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from its slumber ahead of 2023 general election. Although the party adopted restructuring as a core campaign promise, no concrete step has been taken in that direction by the Federal Government it has midwifed since 2015 beyond the recent limited concession to states to venture into railway and mineral deposit extraction.

  • Towards successful polls in Bayelsa, Imo, Kogi

    Towards successful polls in Bayelsa, Imo, Kogi

    Today is decision day in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states. Eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as residents troop out to elect their governors. The burden is on the umpire to conduct an exercise that will substantially comply with the constitution and the electoral act.

    However, election is a joint responsibility involving the electoral commisssion and all the stakeholders. Apart from the electoral agency, other key players-party leaders, candidates, their followers, adhoc staff, security agencies and voters-should play the game by its rules. If any of the actors, individuals or groups, refuse to abide by the regulations, the poll will be flawed.

    Each election circle should be an improvement on the previous ones. Electoral democracy is expensive

     Only free and fair polls can justify the huge expenditure.

    Today’s exercise means a lot to the competing parties. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is fielding Usman Ododo in Kogi, Governor Hope Uzodimma in Imo and former Governor Timpreye Sylva in Bayelsa. APC is itching to build on its feat at the centre, having won the presidential poll that ended the dream of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) for political control.

    The distressed PDP is making frantic efforts to guard jealously its supposedly strongholds in the states, its colossal defeat at the last national elections notwithstanding.

    LP, which was also dazed at the presidential poll, is making some efforts, at least, in Imo, where Senator

    Athan Achonu  is the flagbearer.

    In Kogi, where the governor, Yahaya Bello, is not contesting, having been elected twice, the stakes are  high. APC candidate Ododo, former Accountant-General of the state, had embarked on an aggressive campaign. The ruling party picked its candidate from the local government, constituency and senatorial district of the governor, despite the agitation for zoning. Bello has insisted, defensively, that rotation should not be an issue in a state that is united and cohesive. This is a novel experiment that may engender a paradigm shift, if the party succeeds. But, if it fails to retain power, the failure will be attributed to the neglect of rotation.

    Bello believes that his achievements in almost eight years should swing the pendulum of victory to the party. Indisputably,  APC is the most formidable party in the Confluence State.

    PDP has disagreed with the APC’S permutations. The campaign of its candidate, Senator Dino Melaye, has been boosted by the victory of the Amazon, Senator Natasha Akpoti,  who is aggressively mobilising for him.

    Ododo of APC also faces other challenges. Muritala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are on the prowl. Both are defectors from the ruling party. No doubt, they are popular. But, their platforms are not strong, although Ajaka, an Igala, who belongs the most populous ethnic group, is urging his kinsmen to vote for the son of the soil. If the opposition parties come together, APC’s dream of continuity may be aborted.

    In Imo, Uzodimma is being challenged by two foes-Achonu and Senator Sam Anyawu of the PDP. The three friends are now divided by politics. After the poll, and the electoral litigation that is likely to follow it, they will resume their friendship, without their feuding supporters knowing  the details of the truce.

    Almost four years ago, PDP claimed that APC secured a judicial victory that abruptly terminated its mandate in Imo. Therefore, while APC is trying to prove Uzodimma’s popularity, PDP is trying to prove that the last governorship election was “judicially rigged.” But, APC has continued to wax stronger.

    During the last presidential poll, LP won in Imo. Can the party repeat the feat today? It is noteworthy that the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC)’s gimmick in Imo has collapsed like a pack of cards. While Imo chapter of NLC has disputed any rift with Uzodimma, observers think the national leadership has tried effortlessly to manufacture a non-existing industrial crisis.

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    In Bayelsa, there are alignments and realignment of forces. Interest is key. Four years ago, it was believed that former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP supported APC candidate David Lyon. Today, he is back with Governor Douye Diri, who is more confident than in the previous poll.

    The news from the Bayelsa APC suggests a house divided against itself. Some party leaders are at loggerheads. The snail-like approach to reconciliation has not produced the desired result.

    In the three states, residents are anxious. It is not without judtification. Reports have indicated that the states are enveloped in tension.

    Election is like war in Nigeria. What should be a festival of choice becomes a nightmare; violent and bloody. There is panic. There is gnashing of teeth. When will the malady end?

    Ahead of the elections, fear had gripped many residents. The genesis of the offseason polls was the madness of the past, which the court had corrected. In the process, the time lost to irregularities and litigations could not be regained.

    Yet, the political class has failed to learn from the past. The campaigns in many parts of the states have been tough and rough. Violent attacks, destruction of banners and billboards, defacing of posters, vandalisation of vehicles, dispersal of crowds at rallies and arson have been recorded.

    In some instances, there was loss of lives during clashes. Scores were wounded.

    Police have been overwhelmed. Political parties have even alleged compromise by the police and urged the Inspector General to change or swap police commissioners in the three states.

    Candidates are very combative. They do more than selling their manifestos to prospective voters. There are allegations and counter-allegations of unruly behaviours. Character assassination, campaign of calmuny, falsehood and incitement were elements of the campaigns.

    The splits in political parties created enmity and bitterness, which heralded the chaotic preparations. There is mutual suspicion between and among ruling and opposition candidates, party leaders and their fanatical followers. Thugerry is the order of the day.

    IGP Kayode Egbetokun has asked trouble makers to stay clear. INEC Chairman Prof Mahmood Yakubu has also threatened that in those areas where violence is recorded, the votes will not be counted.

    But, the solution is to apprehend the culprits, prosecute them at the electoral malpractices tribunal and jail them to serve as deterrents to others. The setting up of the electoral fraud court is still a tall order.

    Today, INEC should avoid previous pitfalls. It should brace up for the challenge of conducting polls in coastal areas, which in the past were reputed for rigging.

    Electoral officers should demonstrate patriotism. They should report for polling duty promptly. The right and appropriate officers  should be at the right and appropriate place.

    Polling materials should be adequate to prevent voter anxiety. Polling officers should be above board. They should neither aid nor abet. Indeed, they should shun financial inducement.

    A great challenge is collation. It was the bone of contention in the last election. The promise of IREV by INEC without the hope of fulfilling it, as experience has shown, will generate controversy, indignation and bitterness. Any promised made and unfulfilled by the commission can dent the outcome of the poll, unless there is a rational and justifiable explanation. But, by now, candidates should know that electronic transmission of result has no backing of the electoral act.

    Overzealous obsrvers and monitors ahould be circumspect. Hasty generalisations should be avoided. Election is a sensitive matter and assessment should be thorough and devoid of bias and sentiments.

    Security agents should be up and doing in policing the votes and protecting participants in the critical exetcise.

    If there is no vote buying today across the three states, then, the ballot box would have been sanitised and its sanctity and dignity restored.

  • Successor-predecessor crisis

    Successor-predecessor crisis

    It is not new. It is only rampant in the Fourth Republic. Two key factors tend to fuel the partisan conflict. They are both features of politics. The first is the human nature; the second is the addiction to power, which is alluring and intoxicating.

    When the political romance between the benefactor and the beneficiary ends abruptly, observers are usually taken aback. Then the camp is divided. The impact of the split begins to take its toll, exposing the ruling party to distress.

    A disturbing scenario begins to play out. But it often happens like a comedy of errors which culminates in a melodrama. Sometimes, it ends in a tragedy. The power play between a governor and his successor in the Nigerian political landscape usually throws up avoidable intrigues. A lot of time is wasted in attempting to resolve the crisis it causes.  

    There would appear to be no neutral camp in the imbroglio. While many queue behind the governor, others would back the former governor. Those who were not privy to the secret between the two principal warring actors consequently enlist as combatants in the ensuing war of attrition.

    How to avert a successor-predecessor crisis, which seems to have become an eternal element of Nigerian politics, particularly between the benefactor and his anointed candidate who belongs to the same party, is a big challenge.

    The burden is on those in the business of power, their cohorts, confederates, lackeys, hangers-on and co-travellers.

    Political scientists contend that the outgoing ruling executives often devise a method of exerting influence on their successors after handing over to them. These outgoing rulers could not be expected to be aloof or indifferent to the nature, tendencies, beliefs, principles, dispositions, sentiments, and idiosyncrasies of their would-be successors.

    Two reasons may be responsible. The first is the defence or protection of their legacies, which they expect their preferred candidates to build on in the interest of the state. The second, which appears to be self-serving, is for cover-up.

    While the former lackey and rascally successor-in-waiting or political heir apparent is aware of these conditions, he plays along, only to later renege on an earlier agreement. He may unfold a contrary agenda. In a bid to hurriedly assert personality and be his own man, he adorns the garb of arrogance and severs the chord. It may be a prelude to a personality crisis.

    Though the former governor is outside power, he is never off the radar of influence. As he laments his curious miscalculation, he fights back. The arsenals at his disposal are usually the legislature and the party structure, which may not be under the grip of the new governor.

    The former governor gnashes his teeth over what would now appear to him as an avoidable recruitment error. He tries to resist the gradual or imminent threat to his influence from his defensive position.

    The transition from power to ordinary citizenship may be stressful. As pecks of the exalted office disappear, friends and associates begin to distance themselves from the former man of power. Sources of revenue decrease and the glamour of public protocol diminishes.

    Of course, a few months before the expiration of his tenure, the governor may have become a lame duck. The number of hangers-on sharply decreases as they gravitate to new power centres.

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    Left in the cold, the former governor becomes vulnerable out of the corridor of power. It is the period of accountability. He faces battles on two fronts: from bitter, disloyal, and uncooperative successors, and those from anti-graft bodies. The books are opened and previous deeds, including decisions long forgotten, are laid bare on the day of reckoning. The cost and rigours of litigation, and the burden of public vituperation are heavy.

    The new governor justifies his onslaught by attracting to himself political buddies who have no inkling about how he was catapulted to the seat of power.  In his quest for freedom from an imaginary cage, he seeks a sort of liberation that ultimately lands him in trouble and diverts his attention, no matter how temporarily, from governance as much energy is dissipated on the brewing crisis with his predecessor.

    He incites the public and chides his predecessor for his reluctance or refusal to let go, forgetting that he once adored him as the godfather during the campaigns when he promised a government of continuity.

    The aggrieved godfather replies to the salvos by accusing his former protege of disloyalty, ingratitude, treachery and rebellion to the party.

    In politics, the sin of disloyalty is hardly forgiven and forgotten. Although loyalty can be tested by some circumstances, it is expected that the circumstances should not be beyond the control of the beneficiary of godfatherism. It is debatable.

    If the conflict becomes unmanageable, it can lead to parting of ways. The winner could be either the governor or the former governor – whoever commands the superior levers of power.

    The parting of ways can either be temporary or permanent, depending on interests. Anytime their interests align again, they may put the past behind them and work together for the protection of common interest.

    But, if the disagreement between the predecessor and the successor has an ideological connotation, it may result in a permanent political enmity.

    Such was the case in the days of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, former Premier of Old Western Region and Leader of Action Group (AG), and his successor, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola (SLA), who was deputy party leader.

    Awo lost his bid for Prime Minister in 1959. He became the Leader of the Opposition in a hostile Federal Parliament where he faced adjustment difficulties. It contrasted with the time he was both premier and party leader. His deputy in the party and successor as leader of government came with a different style. Awo kicked, saying the party principles, doctrines and ethos were being breached. Akintola’s supporters alleged that Awo did not give SLA a free hand to steer the affairs of the region.

    To SLA, a collaboration between the Western Region and the Central Government was necessary for the Western Region to get cakes from the Centre. Awo disagreed, saying the relations between the two tiers of government should be premised on ideology. There was a split in the AG. The region was polarised. A crisis broke out. Tension enveloped the wild wild Western Region. The rest, as it is said, is history.

    In this dispensation, the scenario has been enacted in Kano, Edo, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers states. But the bone of contention is not an ideological difference. It is about self-preservation and the protection of personal interest.

    In Kano, former Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso and his deputy, who took over from him, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, were best of friends who weathered the storm of politics together.

    However, barely a year later, both became foes. So deep was the acrimony that the two leaders could not cohabit in the same political party. Up to now, the prospect of reconciliation is still slim for the two gentlemen.

    In Enugu, former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani and his successor, Sullivan Chime, never saw eye to eye after the former left office, until Chime’s successor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, accorded respect to him and supported his bid for Senate.

    In Edo, former Governor Adams Oshiomhole, who later became the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Chairman, was suspended from the party by his ward. The governor, Godwin Obaseki, and his followers celebrated what they described as the collapse of godfatherism, on which back he rode to power in his first term.

    In Rivers, the eminent politician and elder statesman, Dr. Peter Odili, governor from 1999 to 2007, and his godson, Rotimi Amaechi, did not enjoy cordial relations for long. It is doubtful if the Cold War has ended.

    Former Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State and his successor, Gboyega Oyetola, were at loggerheads. What is striking is the weakness of crisis resolution mechanism in the progressive camp. After the change of baton, they went their separate ways. Having failed to reconcile and put their house in order, their party failed to retain power. Today, their feuding supporters are licking the wound.

    Reflecting on life after leaving the Akwa Ibom Government House, where he was governor between 2007 and 2015, Senate President Godswill Akpabio lamented how his successor, Udom Emmanuel, turned against him after he assisted him to become governor.

    At the 60th birthday of Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele in Abuja, Akpabio bemoaned the pattern of acrimony, advising Ekiti State Governor Biodun Oyebanji, who has maintained good relations with his predecessor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, not to join the bandwagon.

    During the inauguration party in Port Harcourt, former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose offered the same advice to Governor Siminalayi Fubara, who took over from Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    What Akpabio and Fayose suggested was the deployment of native wisdom in the management of the predecessor by the successor.

    When there is a conflict between successors and predecessors, both may be right or wrong, depending on the circumstances. The two contrasting positions are defended by party colleagues and followers in the two antagonistic camps.

    It is gratifying that President Bola Tinubu has intervened in the Rivers imbroglio. Cracks have appeared on the wall of brotherhood. They should be mended. If the cracks widen, the warriors may be consumed.

    The warriors only know the beginning of a war. They may not be able to accurately predict its short and long-term consequences.

  • Tinubu, Atiku, Obi: What next after judgment?

    Tinubu, Atiku, Obi: What next after judgment?

    Nigeria is bigger than President Bola Tinubu and his rivals in the last presidential election, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party(LP).

    The trio vied for the highest office in the land because the country existed. Therefore, patriotism demands that the winner and his opponents should continue to hold the Nigerian Project very dear.

    The election has been won and lost. That is the reality. The judgment of the Supreme Court has drawn the curtains on that epoch. It is final. The appropriate lessons should also be learned by stakeholders. But, in summary, the winners are Nigeria and democracy.

    The leaders who approached the court with their claims and prayers have made contributions to national development in an unexpected way. The judgments of the presidential tribunal and Supreme Court have enriched the country’s jurisprudence. Lawyers, jurists, politicians, law students and other Nigerians are now in a vantage position to better appreciate certain constitutional interpretations and the sanctity of the constitution as the regulator of political behaviour.

    Power has not landed on the palm of President Tinubu on a platter of gold. He struggled for political control and succeeded where some people had failed. But, the acquisition of power is only meaningful if it is used to cater for the welfare and happiness of the greater number of citizens.

    The president is expected to deploy power with humility, be firm and decisive and allow the interest of Nigerians to shape his policy directions.

    In Nigeria, people suffer in the midst of plenty. For a president who is committed to change and improvement in the life of the people, it cannot be business as usual. In particular, there is greater expectation that Tinubu, an activist, humanist and friends of the masses, will preside over a government that will reposition the country for excellence, and in the interest of the ordinary people.

    The ruling party should now ensure that the government it had midwifed stays on course in the implementation of the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda.’

    It is a self-imposed burden. Many APC stalwarts pride themselves as “progressives” and “welfarists.” Should they not make a difference to justify their public perception?

    Neither should the opposition be dormant by the current disappointment. The beauty of democracy is that there is room for the opposition to thrive. Therefore, both the PDP and LP should not go into slumber. Other smaller parties that have not been de-registered should aspire to grow. They should cease to be surrogates to bigger platforms. Their responsibility is to keep watch over government activities, offer constructive criticisms and provide alternative solutions to pressing socio-economic challenges.

    For President Tinubu, there is relief. For APC, the nightmare may be over. But, Nigerians, it must be noted, expect the dividends of democracy to flow without further restrictions or inhibitions. Five months after the inauguration of the Tinubu government, and after exercising patience for a reasonable period, the people deserves a new lease of life.

    The president has described his victory at the apex court as an impetus for hardwork, a sort of energiser. More importantly, there is no further distraction arising from the litigations. As the president put it, “the court has put a stop to shenanigans, innuendos, lies and trials in the media. The court has demonstrated a strong commitment to the rule of law and justice. We will use the strength of our diversity to build a great country.”

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    Noting that he had started tackling the challenges of development since his swearing in, President Tinubu acknowledged the need for his administration to work harder.

    The historic poll has polarised the country. Nigeria became more divided along ethnic and religious lines. There is need for national healing. The president, conscious of the imperative of national unity, said:”We are members of the same family, living in the same house, but in different rooms.  We need a change of mindset for the sake of our country,  our children and grandchildren.”

    The Big Three-President Tinubu, Atiku and Obi-actually did well in the election by polling over eight million, seven million and six million votes respectively. The implication is that they are leaders, who cannot be dismissed with the wave of the hand. Remarkably, President Tinubu has waved the olive branch, Atiku and Obi should, as venerable opposition leaders and statesmen, invest more in democracy and popular rule through their invaluable ideas and reiteration of support for nation-building.

    The opposition is at liberty to sharpen its arrows. Bit, it should be within the bound of reason and logic. If any action embarked upon by political parties outside government is only meant to uncritically divert government’s attention and not for upholding the national interest, then, it is counter-productive.

    Opposition in democracy should not be a blind enterprise. They should embrace the ethics of moderation in complex times which advocates that a sensible balance should be maintained in all pursuits.

    One of the areas requiring their contributions is electoral reform. If the sanctity of the ballot box is to be guaranteed, doubts and reservations about some mistakes of the umpire, which are usually blown out of proportion, should be resolved. Nigerians are very emotional about election and they can only respond to the electoral process if there is substantial assurance that their vote will count.

    Opposition leaders who know their onions can propose.electoral reform bills to the parliament if they intend to add value to the electoral system.Then, the culture of do-or-die during electioneering should give way. Political desperation is not a mark of maturity. In addition, the political class should demonstrate confidence in the court, which is the final arbiter in political dispute.

    Recent developments have brought to the front burner the place of social media in electoral democracy. Social media has become a divisive and destabilising tool in the hands of politicians bent on tormenting opponents through outright misinformation, falsehood, campaign of calumny, and character assassination.

    Social media terrorism was in vogue during the last election. Opinion is divided on whether it should be regulated or not. An unscrupulous element, hiding in the corner of his room, can create tension and wreck havoc on the country through some kind of dubious postings or portrayals.

    Is there something to learn from other climes? The technolog is not a native of Nigeria. It was imported. But, it has come to stay. Its advantages are enormous. In a speed of lightning, information is disseminated worldwide. Also, within some minutes, mankind can be thrown into panic and tribulation.  A whole country can be enveloped in anxiety or fear through avoidable fabrication. Should Nigeria not copy how social media is operated and used for development in advanced countries? How can Nigeria stem or halt social media abuse or misuse?

    It should however, be borne in mind that government’s activities which do not resonate with the people would spark reactions. It opens the door to social media miscreants to sensationalise them exergerrate their impact on the society.

    The reward for voting is performance, which is measured by some parameters. Now that President Tinubu has resolved to work harder, it is expected that the administration will commence a speedy implementation of its people-oriented policies and programmes.

    The effects of the renewed hope agenda implementation should be felt in two critical areas of stable electricity and uninterrupted fuel supply for domestic consumption. The informal sector will thrive if power is stable. Also, if refineries are up other feet, and not on their knees, Nigerians will be liberated from the current quagmire.

    If these two are fixed, Nigerians will heave a sigh of relief.

    The greatest achievement of President Tinubu should be the resolution of the national question. Nigeria should be restructured to foster ‘true’ federalism.