The Nation Newspaper

Category: Emmanuel Oladesu

  • Agenda for National Youth Conference

    Agenda for National Youth Conference

    There is excitement among Nigerian youths. For the first time, they will have an effective forum to lend their collective voice to national discourse. 

    Thus, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s move to set up a National Youth Conference has beamed a ray of hope for the future of the youths. With the planned inauguration of the conference, the youth are upbeat about the impact it is likely to make on national life. It is a novel idea.

    The Youth Confab is not a semblance of the typical National Conference, Constitutional Conference, or Sovereign National Conference, in character, objective, and composition.

    But, for clarity, it should not be perceived by the younger generation as a social hangout, a tea party, a musical concert, a dating arena, a cinema house or a film show; it does not come close to a modelling event or jamboree. It should also not be converted to an opportunity for showmanship by attention-seeking motivational speakers swimming in the pool of idealism. Rather, it should be a serious gathering, a symbolic institutionalised avenue for legitimate, guided, peaceful, affirmative and interest articulation.

    Already, many youngsters have been part of Youth Parliaments in some states where they bared their minds and interfaced with government representatives on issues bordering on their welfare, growth and development. The only difference is that the proposed Confab will have a national outlook.

    Nigeria parades promising youths with intimidating credentials and potential; young men and women bubbling with great ideas. Many of them are making waves in their callings under the tutelage of accomplished oldies. They are many young professionals – lawyers, doctors, financial experts, engineers, architects, ICT gurus, researchers, authors, and scientists. The ball is now in the court of the ‘Gen Z’ to clarify their thoughts on burning national socio-economic and political issues as the country intensifies the search for solutions.

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    A constructive debate is a minimum expectation, and the nation would also look forward to suggestions beyond the youths’ peculiar demands for an instant generational shift and clamour for dominant political control.

    The future, it is often said, belongs to the youth. Thus, President Tinubu thinks that as his administration mobilises the nation to overcome the current challenges, it is also mindful of the next generation whose creative energy should be galvanised towards a better future. He said those at the helm of affairs should lead today with a special focus on the future they wish to bequeath to the younger ones. The president rightly recognises that the current leadership cannot design a future in which the youths would be the key players without deeply involving them in the conceptualisation, nitty-gritty, modus operandi, implementation, and actualisation.

    Unveiling the plan for the conference, he explained that the gathering would be a platform to address the diverse challenges and opportunities confronting the youths who constitute more than 60 per cent of the soaring population. The president expects the restrictive confab to provoke meaningful dialogue and empower the youths to participate actively in nation-building. He noted that by ensuring their voices are heard in shaping the policies that impact their lives, his government would create a pathway for a brighter tomorrow for the nation through its youths.

    The confab may be another unity forum, as envisioned by the President. As the youths converge in Abuja or any chosen venue in any part of the country, their delegates are symbolically inducted into somewhat problem-solving roles. Team spirit is essential for the youths from a complex and highly heterogeneous country. The youths are expected to collaboratively develop solutions to issues, such as education, employment, innovation, security, and social justice.

    The nation awaits the modalities for the proposed Confab and selection of the delegates. The process, the president said, would be designed in close consultation with the young people through their representatives. President Tinubu promised that his administration would ensure that youth aspirations are at the heart of the conference’s deliberations. More importantly, he assured that the current government would thoroughly consider and implement its recommendations and outcomes, in consonance with the mission to build a more inclusive, prosperous, and united country.

    The confab is another manifestation of youth inclusion, which was part of Tinubu’s campaign promises. In fulfilment of this portion of his party’s manifestos, youth are being accorded priority in decision-making and implementation modalities. More than before, youths have found their voice in the Tinubu administration, which appointed two youth ministers and gave the young generation other responsible positions in the federal cabinet, the Presidency, parastatals and boards.

    Also, other youth-oriented policies and programmes affirming the prioritisation of youth welfare include the three million Technical Talents programme (3MTT) of the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, aimed at building Nigeria’s technical talent backbone, the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), which provides cheap loans to somestudents to pursue their tertiary educational dreams, and the proposed launching of the Renewed Hope Labour Employment and Empowerment Programme (LEEP) aimed at yearly creation and facilitation of 2.5 million direct and indirect jobs.

    But the proposed youth confab has thrown up some challenges. The first is how to determine the age bracket of those deemed to fall into that human categorisation and those who should be called youth representatives.

    The second is the composition, the delegates’ size and gender parity. Some may even make a case for ethnic consideration and religious balance.

    The third is the delineation of the youth constituencies for the recruitment of delegates, from geo-political zones, states, campuses, reputable youth organisations, the academia and other professional institutions, the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), the government, political parties, persons with disabilities, and the gang of aggrieved protesters against what they have uncritically described as bad governance.

    The fourth is the setting up of a Conference Secretariat that will comprise youths and, indeed, selected ‘youth-at-heart’ elders who have to donate their wealth of experience to the delegates and offer guidance to the process. The reason for gerontocratic monitoring is that despite their vibrancy, energy, vigour, zest and adventurous nature, youths are still assailed by the limitation of experience. The youths may need advisers, especially if the conference would also break into committees. They may also require technical assistance in producing a conference report.

    Already, critics have insinuated that the conference may pale into an assemblage of privileged youths from affluent homes as if it is intended for the projection of the children of legends, aristocrats, party big wigs and business moguls. Conscious efforts should be made to disabuse the notion of systematically raising a pre-determined successor club. The participants should be chosen in a manner that would reflect representativeness, thereby satisfying, in part, a criterion of democratic selection. The motivation for participation at the conference should not be the desire to be partakers in the transient pecks associated with the event. The perception of government as a big contract for grabs should be discouraged.

    Nigerian youths have been victims of what many elders failed to do in the past, particularly the creation of an atmosphere conducive for them to excel. As the economy was mismanaged, job opportunities began to shrink. The unstable academic calendar due to lecturers’ strikes in tertiary institutions made many youths to stay longer on campuses than their normal academic period. Many of them became hired thugs for politicians. The maladjusted ones opted for anti-social behaviours, including internet fraud, popularly called ‘yahoo plus,’ kidnappings for ransom and ritual murders. Adorning their thinking caps, many of them left for Europe and America for greener pastures. The exodus led to a brain drain.

    Also, the majority of delegates expected at the youth conference may be products of the school system that erroneously deleted the study of history, civics and moral education from their curricula. The knowledge of Nigerian history by the upcoming young elite is important for them to appreciate the country’s complexity and diversity, and the need for delegates to cultivate dialogue and hone their skills for negotiation and compromises. During the conference, opinions may reflect the diversity or heterogeneous nature of the Nigerian society. Reality may dawn on the youths that they are only united by sports and that their needs and aspirations, having been brought up in diverse zones and cultures, differ.

    At the end of the conference, it is expected that the assignment would have fostered unity and understanding among the youth as well as between them and the government. The government would have also achieved a better perception of youth challenges, needs and aspirations. It may be the baseline for increased youth participation in governance.

  • Nigerian opposition in disarray

    Nigerian opposition in disarray

    Democracy thrives better with a virile opposition in place than in an environment where opposition is passive. With the constitutional guarantee of freedom of political choice, association and assembly, citizens have the right and opportunity to choose from alternative platforms fielding candidates for elections. That may be the reason a one-party system is hugely unpopular in mature democracies.

    The major role of the opposition is to question the government of the day and hold the political leadership accountable to the populace. The awareness of political parties in stiff competition for political control can motivate the ruling parties to correct their mistakes. This is a major contribution to democracy, good governance, and political development.

    The opposition in a two-party and multi-party system is the custodian of the right to dissent in a civilised manner. Many experts contend that genuine opposition is a necessary attribute of popular rule. It also underscores tolerance and trust in the ability of citizens to resolve political differences in a peaceful manner and in consonance with the law of the constitution.

    It may be argued, as the Nigerian historical experience has shown, that opposition politics only blossomed under the Westminster system, and the manifestation was felt in the Parliament in the First Republic. Under the presidential system in Nigeria, particularly in this Fourth Republic, there is hardly a line of demarcation between the ruling party and the opposition in terms of ideas, belief systems, and organisational structures.

    The tiny difference appears to be the leadership. The definition of party leadership here is not restricted to members of the executive committees of parties at the ward, local government, state, and national levels. It extends to the towering leadership of the party caucus, the thinkers and the conscience of the party.

    Opposition politics can often thrive where party politics is premised on ideology. The eclipse of ideological culture has motivated defections, inspired by the ambition for power in an atmosphere of ideological vacuum.

    The ruling party and opposition parties have their peculiar problems, although the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seems to fare better as the party in government. Left in the cold outside power, the three important adversarial parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and Labour Party (LP) – are currently in disarray.

    Public servants elected on these platforms jump ship at will. They hide under the crisis rocking their parties to defect to the ruling party instead of building an effective opposition.

    The crises tearing apart the major opposition parties, fundamentally, were not orchestrated by the ruling party. But their escalation is, in the final analysis, to the advantage of the ruling party.

    Four reasons are responsible for the escalation of crisis in the three parties. These are the absence of unifying ideas beyond the aspiration to hijack power, poor adjustment to limiting conditions of opposition platforms outside government, lack of effective leadership that commands respect and weakness of crisis resolution mechanism that has made reconciliation impossible. To survive, they have to return to the vision of their founding fathers.

    Although Nigeria, historically, shows a tendency towards a two-party system, the scattered opposition parties do not see any wisdom in pulling their resources together, like the defunct ACN, CPC, and ANPP did to form a formidable party. They are further torn apart by mutual suspicion. They propose collaboration only to deny it. It is because their interests do not align. There is a clash of egos, and their leadership lacks negotiation skills. They cannot also make sacrifices.

    Until 2015, the PDP was the leading party. It ruled for 16 years. The party boasted that it would rule for 60 years, uninterrupted, as the largest party in Africa.

    But it has turned out that the PDP is not an ideological party. Yet, those who laid its foundation considered some principles. However, latter-day party undertakers forgot the foundation of the party and the philosophy of equity, justice, and fairness that united its founding fathers.

    The idea revolved around zoning or rotation, which was collectively embraced as the guarantee for a sense of belonging among members from the six geo-political zones. Merit was not sacrificed because the early party leaders believed that when it was the turn of any zone, there would be no scarcity of “presidential materials” to occupy Aso Villa, the seat of government.

    When the PDP violated the cherished principle of rotation in 2015, it lost power. When the mistake was repeated in 2023, it failed to bounce back. The lesson is instructive. Unless the party agrees to go back to the dumped principle of fairness, it may continue to flounder.

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    The 2023 hurdle that PDP could not cross was the sustenance of time-tested party value and the principle of unity in diversity. Few party leaders in the North insisted that the region should produce the national chairman and the presidential candidate at the same time. It was an anathema.

    Also, the Northern PDP insisted on taking the presidential ticket to produce a president who would succeed another northerner who was completing eight years in Aso Villa. The South disagreed, and cracks appeared on the wall. The cracks widened ahead of the poll. The result was fatal. Its bid to regain power was futile. Up to now, the PDP has not overcome the challenge of conscience.

    Since then, many chieftains who could not endure the hard life of opposition have defected to the APC in search of a lifeline, bread, butter, and comfort.

    Those who cannot move quarrel daily. After its national chairman, IyorchaAyu, was shoved aside, the party has not been unable to organise a mid-term convention for the selection of a replacement. A section of the party sees waging war on the acting chairman as a pastime. Plots are hatched to expel those opposed to the breach of the charter of equity. There is the hypocritical commitment to reconciliation.

    The greatest problem of the PDP is the absence of leadership collectively held in esteem. While APC had Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu as leaders in APC when it was in the opposition, the PDP lacks the kind of leadership that can hold the party together. The BoT is merely advisory. The National Working Committee (NWC) and the National Executive Committee (NEC) are divided. The PDP Caucus in the National Assembly can hardly offer a strong opposition in the Parliament.

    The party’s power resides in the PDP Governors’ Forum. Yet, this too is polarised. The crises at the national level do not allow the NWC to fully attend to the conflicts at the state chapters.

    Ahead of 2007, PDP is not putting its house in order.

    Like the PDP, APGA is in turmoil. It is not aspiring to grow beyond its Anambra enclave. The party is being deserted by those who were committed to its growth in the past. Even, its national chairman for 12 years, Victor Umeh, had to call it quits. Hit by leadership instability and squabbles, APGA has been in and out of court for five years.

    Umeh, now LP senator representing Anambra Central in the Senate, handed over to Victor Oye, who was suspended ahead of 2021 governorship poll in Anambra and Jude Okeke was asked to act as national chairman.

    Now, the party has split into two factions, led by Edozie Njoku and Sly Ezeokenwa, who is supported by the lone APGA governor, Charles Soludo. It is evident that those who have been governors on the platform of APGA were only interested in the party because of their ambitions. After the expiration of their tenures, their commitment ends.

    The APGA crisis pales into insignificance in the face of the LP troubles. The party has a reputation of being hired, used and dumped by aggrieved politicians from other parties urgently looking for a platform to contest. Politicians who have used and dumped the party are Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State, and Ayodele Fayose and Opeyemi Bamidele of Ekiti State. Social media warriors who are ‘Obidient’ followers of Peter Obi are confused as party members, despite the fact that their loyalty is restricted to his presidential ambition.

    Today, LP is neck-deep in a leadership crisis that is confusing to its members. The party is divided. Julius Abure is laying claim to being the party’s national chairman. But at the stakeholders’ meeting in Umuahia organised by Obi and the only LP governor, Alex Otti, a National Caretaker Committee, headed by Esther Nenadi Usman, was set up.

    Opposition parties in Nigeria should should examine themselves. They need to put their house in order. An effective opposition is in the interest of democracy.

  • Towards a successful poll in Edo

    Towards a successful poll in Edo

    The people of Edo State are going to the poll today. They should not be seen to be going to war. At the close of the poll, Governor Godwin Obaseki’s successor should be elected peacefully and democratically. The minimum expectation is a substantially credible poll that would make the victor’s rivals accept their fate and return to the drawing board. Ultimately, democracy should be the winner.

    But events leading to today’s exercise obligate Edo people and residents to ensure an orderly election and a peaceful state.

    The refusal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to sign the peace accord is a wide departure from democratic norms. It is worrisome to the National Peace Committee, headed by Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, a former military Head of State, and all lovers of popular rule in the country. The implication is that there may be a pre-conceived attempt to discredit the process ahead of kickoff. It also means the ruling party in Edo has lost confidence in the process. It may also be a face-saving strategy by the party’s leadership if the outcome goes the other way. That is not an act of statesmanship.

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    But, in another breath, the governor’s complaints about the general preparation for the poll should be perused so that the state would not be plunged into an avoidable post-election disaster.

    Although the campaigns have not been marred by large-scale violence, peace is not total. The rallies have been hot, aggravating the inter-party competition, acrimony and antagonism. The campaign of calumny, the abuse, character assassination, threats and counter-threats, frivolous claims and allegations by rivals, and the stress of electioneering have, no doubt, upset the state. There is so much focus on personalities and less emphasis on issues.

    Highly inflammable statements were not avoided during the campaigns. On the podium, politicians acted before thinking. Issues of personal nature were inappropriately thrown up. There were allusions to a candidate’s personal life of children without a wife which is confusing. There were also reference to a wife’s inability to bear children, oblivious of the fact that procreation is the handiwork of God the creator.

    However, the outcome of the election would be a referendum on the performance of Obaseki in the last seven and a half years.

    Also, the result would reveal whether or not zoning or rotation of the governorship slot is a key issue in Edo politics. It will also show if the running mates can pull their weights in their respective local government areas.

    The poll will also show whether or not the electoral commission has improved its performance over last year’s general election. It will be an opportunity for the commission to correct some weaknesses associated with the conduct of previous off-season polls.

    Politics is a legitimate contest for political control; it is guaranteed by the constitution. But the actors are, true to human nature, inclined to violate or circumvent the constitutional stipulations. If all play by the rules, all will be well. If not, the battle will shift to the street or the temple of justice. The cost of litigation would be an additional stress.

    It is apparent that only three of the 18 candidates are actually in the race; 15 others are merely warming the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) register.

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) is scheming to bounce back to power with Monday Okpebholo. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is bent on of retaining power with of Asue Ighodalo. The Labour Party (LP) has Olumide Akpata who is plotting to pull the rug off their feet. None of the flagbearers is a giant in Edo politics.

    Okpebholo, who could be said to be the only strong politician in the race, cannot be described as a man of immense national stature, although he is a senator. He is known to be popular at the grassroots from where he derived the votes that took him to the Senate.

    Asue is a technocrat, a financial expert and a lawyer who is still learning the ropes in politics. He is to Obaseki what Obaseki was to Adams Oshiomhole before they parted ways. He is a very confident person.

    Akpata rode on the back of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) to popularity. His party is often rented out to aggrieved politicians after being edged out of their original platforms. It used to be a “used and dumped”.

    There is anxiety in the major parties, but it is not unexpected. In their hunt for power, there is mutual suspicion. LP fears that APC and PDP could dwarf the scattered Obedients on poll day, although it is guarding its Edo South base jealously. In the other two senatorial districts, there is no penetration.

    APC is spoiling for a pound of flesh, having been left in the cold for four years through the relocation of its residual mandate to the PDP in 2020 by the governor, following the connivance of party men who undermined the state.

    Without the advantage of real or imagined federal might, the PDP is fretting and crying foul. The party is suspicious of the police to remain impartial, unlike four years ago when it was operating on the same solid ground. Decimated by defections and polarised by quarrels over succession politics, the ruling party in Edo has broken down with a section led by Dan Orbih not identifying with the candidate.

    A feature of this year’s electioneering is that apart from Akpata, who appears to be his own man, despite Peter Obi’s visit to the state, it appears the Edo battle is between the APC leader, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, and PDP’s leader, Governor Obaseki, with the two candidates – Okpebholo and Ighodalo – operating under their shadows.

    The fate of Edo is in the hands of its people as they decide what to do with it today. They should shun unruly behaviours at the polling booths. The no-go areas include ballot hijack, disruptions of the voting process, and other forms of violence. There may be no apathy as the antecedent of the state has shown. But the electorate needs to vote wisely. Voters should shun vote-buying in the interest of their children’s future. They should cooperate with the umpire to do a neat job.

    The onus is on INEC to conduct a credible poll. Elections are only free and fair when the votes count. Poor conduct in an election is an affront to the sanctity of the ballot box.

    Master riggers should be aware that they risk going to jail, judging by the umpire’s warning about its determination to sanitise the electoral process. Political thugs need to know that their sponsors will abandon them when they are apprehended.

    The reason irregularities and malpractices have persisted in elections is that the envisaged tribunal for the trial of electoral terrorists has not come on board. The difference between the tribunal and the regular court is that the trial of suspects for electoral manipulation would be done speedily and culprits brought to justice on time.

    Polling officers should not be conspirators against the voters’ freedom to elect whomever they choose. They should conduct the exercise according to laid down regulations. Any laxity would be counterproductive. An election is an emotive issue.

    Late arrival of polling officers and election materials can spark apprehension. INEC workers –regular or ad hoc – should report for the special assignment promptly. Malfunctioning of the electronic capturing machines can delay or elongate the procedure for voting. In the past, INEC hired a drunkard to paddle a speedboat full of polling materials to designated polling centres in the coastal areas. It capsized. In Today’s exercise, the logistics arrangement should be perfect.

    Since electronic voting is still a tall order, stakeholders have to endure certain processes. The cooperation of voters and party agents are required during the counting and recording of votes. Party agents are expected to be vigilant. Any mistake during counting, recording and transmission of results could spell doom for the process.

    To the observers and the monitors, there is a need to produce objective reports and not the ones that will mislead or confuse the public. It is not an act of patriotism for observers to become partisan and allow their observations to be teleguided by political parties and their candidates. They are expected to be neutral and uphold democratic and national interests. Security agents on electoral duty should discharge their duty patriotically and without fear or favour. The onus is on them to provide security and police the votes to ensure transparency in all areas.

    To the politicians, an election should not brew acrimony. It should rather be a means for the electorate to give their votes to the person they believe would do his best for them. An election of a single day can throw up four years of contentment or regrets.

  • Nigeria in a lean period (2)

    Nigeria in a lean period (2)

    This year has been remarkable for pain, anxiety and fear. The nation-state is suffering from the cumulative effects of past leadership failure: ineptitude, inaction, misplaced priorities, errors of corruption, lack of vision and foresight, and general maladministration.

     Yet, as some discerning people have argued, the trial, test and travails are inevitable. Nigerians may need to pass through the current “thorny path” for the country to survive. The government and the governed are paying the price for past mistakes, which the current corrective economic policies are meant to address.

    Most Nigerians agree that fuel subsidies should be removed. It was the highlight of the campaign promises of the major presidential candidates in last year’s general election. The budget inherited from the past administration laid the foundation for the removal. But it is now a major bone of contention. Even past presidential candidates are employing it to blackmail the Federal Government and accusing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of inflicting pains, deliberately, on  Nigerians.

    Subsidy curators and beneficiaries are mounting a propagandist campaign to tarnish the government’s image. But it does not distract from the fact that these oil barons have forfeited the monopolistic opportunity to hold the country by the jugular. The privileged few have lost the chance to milk Nigeria through manipulative oil business.

    Also, although the floating of the naira and its consequential devaluation have compounded the economic logjam, they are not obstacles to an economic recovery, which the administration is pursuing with its reform agenda. A man of courage, the Commander-in-Chief has decided to take certain hard decisions in the national interest. The fruits are coming in the long run.

    President Tinubu has no antecedent of an aloofness or insensitivity to the plight of the common man whose interest he has devoted his entire political career to defend. Yet, no explanation would be rational or tenable to the ill-informed critics who claim to fight for the ‘hungry and angry’ masses who have slid further into deep penury.

    Despite their access to state resources, those in government are not having peace of mind. They are inundated with complaints about the diminishing standard of living, the high cost of goods and services, and the gap between the promise of relief and the reality of a potentially disastrous downturn. Citizens want immediate or prompt solutions to long-standing problems, oblivious that managing an already dilapidated economy is not a tea party. Thus, appeals for more patience, sacrifice and perseverance fall on deaf ears.

    The agitations of poor Nigerians are not without some justifications. Three square meals are no longer feasible. A feature of the adjustment is meal skipping. A particular culture is fading in Yoruba land. After meals, parents don’t usually ask their children if they have their fill. The period of surplus contrasts sharply with this moment of austerity.

    Comfort in most homes is a tall order. Convenience is a luxury. People now take new lessons about the scale of preference and money management. The boring social condition has turned some fine gentlemen into executive beggars in urban centres. Many are adjusting to the reality of want and inadequacy wrongly.

     Households are in turmoil. Couples argue and fight over money for housekeeping. The wife returns from the market grumbling about the exorbitant prices of consumables. The pitiful and exhausted breadwinner appeals to her to manage, explaining that he is still on the same salary level. The wife protests angrily and accepts her fate.

    Certain expenditures are inevitable: school fees, rents, transport fares, utility bills. But workers complain that their salaries cannot take them home. Dependents suffer. May people not fall sick in this period. Hospital bills are on the high side. The cost of medication is burdensome. More people now patronise herb dealers. Others hold on to the efficacy of prayers.

    Many car owners now dust their shoes. They leave their cars at home and join public transport. Others trek to work. It is a forced exercise. Inter-city travelling drains the purse. Either at the local bukateria or city eatery, food is expensive everywhere. They are not just affordable. Money is scarce. Bank customers withdraw more times than they save. Job losses are on the increase. Both employed and unemployed are united in agony. The difference between the two categories is thin.

    The quality of living is on perpetual decline. Poverty is growing in leaps and bounds. Kids of those at the lowest rungs drop out of schools in droves. Global bodies are concerned about the turn of events in the education sector.

    As people compare and contrast, many are disillusioned. There is nostalgia for the good old days. Sadly, many still prefer the past, which cannot rekindle a memory of happy times. More worrisome to them is the prospects of a bleak future. Indeed, there is fear about tomorrow.

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    It is because the economy is on crutches; the Nigerian economy is limping. It has been battered and forced into a coma. It is not productive. Until recently, the government’s programme of diversification was hanging. It is a mono-economy, which exclusively thrives on oil that has been described as a blessing and a curse. At a time when electricity is stabilising, indeed, at a huge cost to stratified consumers, the petrol crisis is wiping away the meagre gains.

    The economy has been bastardised by long years of mismanagement by successive managers. Critical sectors are on their knees. They are on life support in intensive care. The reality of state fragility is here, although a state failure is being averted. The burden is on Tinubu’s shoulders.

    For a long time, huge debt burdens, large-scale embezzlement, misplaced priorities, tensions arising from the ill-structured governance, flawed constitution of the complex federal country, inexplicable insecurity and lack of patriotism by sharers of political control constituted a drawback. They still make Nigeria a country of misery and adversity, despite the nation’s potential.

    A surgical operation is inevitable. That is what the current administration is doing. Sadly, the reforms also bring unavoidable pains that have triggered protests and rage. The mess and garbage being cleared are not the making of the current leadership. They were inherited. Be that as it may, government, as it is often said, is a continuum.

    Those who led Nigeria to the current predicament are its past visionless leaders who failed to lay a solid foundation for a greater tomorrow.

    Clearing the Augean stable is a herculean task. Sometimes, it is easier to build from scratch than to pull down a dilapidated edifice before rebuilding it. It is more distressing when the builder seems to lack the unalloyed cooperation and full compliments of co-builders who are in a vantage position to even sabotage the corrective measures through their hypocritical commitment.

    President Tinubu probably had a premonition of the hard tasks ahead of him. He said nobody should pity him. He applied for the most difficult job in Africa.

    But the captain needs the support and understanding of all and sundry, those who should bear in mind that today’s hardship must be endured in anticipation of a better tomorrow.

    An economic crisis, even a depression, is not forever. There will be light at the end of the tunnel.

    In the interim, individuals need to tighten their belts. Adaptation is crucial. Priorities should be got right. Tastes should be moderated. It is time for people to cut their coats according to their clothes. Unwise spending should be avoided.

    Nigerians should support the government as it searches for effective solutions to the current petrol crisis.

    The road to deregulation of fuel importation and supply is long and tortuous. The path is unclear. There are doubts. The government needs the political will to pursue and implement the policy. Private businessmen still suspect an inexplicable subsidy, making them think the coast is not clear.

    People are hopeful about Dangote Refinery. But it is not the ultimate saviour. Dangote may harbour the fear that the NNPCL price of petrol per litre is lower than its cost price of petrol.

    All government refineries should be revived fully. It is sad that Nigeria, which is the sixth largest producer of crude oil in the world, cannot boast a single functional refinery.

    The investors already granted licences to operate refineries should be encouraged to come on stream.

    Unless government refineries are fully operational, we should visualise the implications of a looming monopoly for the political economy.

    Also, the government should hasten action on the compressed natural gas initiative.

    The debate on solutions to the protracted fuel crisis continues.

  • Benue APC and challenge of reconciliation

    Benue APC and challenge of reconciliation

    Many issues should bother the people of Benue State, particularly members and supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the divided chapter.

    The subsisting ethnic cleavage makes the Northcentral state a mini-Nigeria in want of unity in diversity. The memory of past inter-tribal clashes is scary. The scars are visible. The pains have not subsided. The tension may not have abated. From his predecessors, Governor Hyacinth Alia has inherited a big burden of ensuring peaceful coexistence. He is achieving this through his peace-building styles and people-oriented policies and programmes.

    Benue of Tiv, Junkun, and other groups has been a wide theatre of mass killings and other forms of violence – on the farms, in the villages, and on the roads. The perpetrators are unknown. They are usually spook-like, always at large, only to reappear to wreak more havoc and vanish into thin air again.

    The state prides itself as the Food Basket of the Nation. But it is now troubled by the disruption of farm practices. Farmers are slaughtered by public enemies. Kidnappings, banditry, and farmer-herder clashes create panic and apprehension. The actual number of needless deaths in the last nine years is unknown. It is mind-boggling.

    The highly heterogeneous state is thirsty for peace and development across sectors. The sectors require surgical operations, which Rev. Fr. Alia is carrying out with patriotism, commitment, and dedication, thereby rekindling hope about a brighter future, despite the constraints and obstacles on his way.

    Before the cleric got in the saddle under the current republic were George Akume, Gabriel Suswam, and Sam Ortom. It could be said that they did their best to lay the foundation on which Alia is building. However, many agree that the cleric has a different approach. He attends to issues with speed. He sees his mandate as the extension of his service to humanity as a priest.

    This is the core issue: while Alia’s predecessors were accountable to the constitution, the party leadership, and certain benefactors or godfathers, the priest in Makurdi Government House, first and foremost, believes that above all, he is accountable to God, the Alpha, who gives power, and the Omega, who also has the power to retrieve power from the beneficiary, in the course of human history.

    Rev. Alia took the politics of Benue by storm, ahead of last year’s general election. He crossed the partisan bridge from the pulpit to the corridor of power, leaning on an unprecedented following cutting across ethnic, religious, and political leanings. His antecedents as an anti-HIV/AIDS campaigner and organiser of Holy Mass made him famous. He is a household name in Benue, and even in Taraba.

    The priest came when the state thirsted for a clean break from the past. He wanted to make a difference in a state that has literarily been crawling for over four decades. In Benue, there were no jobs because there were no industries. People also started deserting farms to stay safe across 20 of the 23 local governments. Over 2.3 million displaced people sojourned in Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDPs’) camps. The salaries of public workers were not paid. Pensions and gratuities were hanging.

    The APC needed a game changer. Thus, in 2023, the interest of Benue State, the party’s chapter, and the candidate aligned in their collective pursuit of greater welfare and prosperity for the generality of the people.

    Highly popular, charismatic, focused, and honest, Alia came with a message of hope, revival, and change. The people of Benue believed him as a man bubbling with the courage to correct the cumulative errors. His manifestos were captivating. On the podium, the priest, as usual, was electrifying.

    Read Also: Onjeh congratulates Benue APC Acting chair Omale, hails Alia, APC NWC

    At the close of the poll, Fr. Alia defeated his rival, Titus Uba of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The outcome of the electoral exercise underscored a vote of no confidence in the opposition party and the immediate past administration in the state.

    Following his swearing-in, the governor hit the ground running, not as a run-of-the-mill prevaricator or bread-and-butter politician but as a genuine and devoted servant of God dedicated to ministering to the vast needs of people. So far, he has been fulfilling his campaign promises, to the delight of the electorate.

    But the attention of the people’s governor is being distracted by intra-party intrigues, bickering, and war within the state APC chapter on which platform he rode to power. Yet, Alia needs the support of the entire party to achieve more for the state.

    There is a curious battle for supremacy; a needless struggle for the control of the party between the godfather, Senator Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), and his godson, Alia.

    Akume is the hero, party builder, and leader. Alia is the champion of progress, the ‘political star boy,’ the cynosure of all eyes, and the consolidator of party gains. The challenge now is that while Benue APC has succeeded in bouncing back to power, the chapter is also waging war against itself.

    The protracted crisis between the two leaders should be the focus of the APC National Reconciliation Committee. The division should end in the collective interest of the state and the party. It is surprising that gladiators who worked together during the elections are now working at cross-purpose, almost without justification.

    Leading the Akume forces in the war of attrition is Austin Agada, chairman of the polarised chapter. The governor’s forces are led by Benjamin Omale, chairman of the caretaker committee. The two camps are in and out of court, underscoring that things are falling apart in the party.

    Party stalwarts are flexing of muscles. Observers have rightly captured the rift as Abuja forces, fanatically loyal to a chieftain of national stature, Akume, versus Makurdi combatants, fiercely loyal to the governor, who is the legal and legitimate state party leader. The turn of events is worrisome to party members who are boxed into emotional wrenching. Mutual admirers of the two leaders – Akume and Fr. Alia – both loyalist of the National Leader and Commander-in-Chief, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, are taken aback.

    Efforts by traditional rulers to resolve the conflict have collapsed. The peace meeting brokered by the Tor Tiv, Prof. James Ayatse, only led to a temporary cessation of hostilities. After departing from the ancient Gboko palace, the rift escalated. It is because, in the game of politics, the contest for power and influence are characterised by competition and antagonism which the natural rulers cannot moderate in a republican setting.

    Yet, sources of discord can be resolved through the conflict resolution mechanism within the party at the state and national levels, if the warring “factions” are willing. Issues like the choice of House of Assembly principal officers, criteria for the selection of commissioners and special advisers, and appointment of caretaker committees for councils often generate friction and tension. However, they are peculiar challenges confronting winning parties. In victory, Akume and Alia should mutually demonstrate the partisan capacities for the management of electoral achievements.

    The split is dangerous for the future of Benue APC. A party in crisis is a house divided. The negative impact would be felt by the administration it midwifed and the warring leaders locked in political enmity.

    The way out of the quarrel is simple yet challenging. There is no permanent friend or foe in politics but permanent interest. A house divided can fall. The watchword, therefore, is reconciliation.

    The two sides should sheathe their swords. They should give concessions. They should embrace consensus on issues. Their leaders should remember the beginning and strive at an accord. They should learn to forgive and forget.

    The Benue APC warriors should collectively work for concord. It is in the interest of the party and the gladiators too. Crisis, unduly prolonged, can only weaken the platform ahead of future polls.

  • Jonathan and 2027 poll

    Jonathan and 2027 poll

    All politics is local, but certain peculiarities define political players as either prescient or improvident in their quest for political power. The ideals political leaders pursue define their place in history. Circumstances often dictate such ideals. But the circumspect weigh the options rationally before putting their first foot forward. This happens across all continents and political climes. 

    In Africa, many political leaders appear very addicted to the corridor of power. They are always reluctant to leave political office. It is because power is alluring. Only a few are motivated by patriotism, or the desire to offer selfless service. Most of them are merely interested in the pecks and afraid to be off the radar of privilege and relevance.

    When they are forced out by circumstances beyond their control, either through a coup or legitimate election, which underscores their rejection by the people, they are still willing and eager to stage a comeback, thereby reclining themselves as other circumstances may permit.

    For African politicians, retirement is never contemplated. The label of statesmen in advisory capacities is rejected as they scheme for active participation in national affairs through the ballot box.

    They hide under the constitution which guarantees their fundamental human rights to aspire – like other citizens. But on many occasions, they are also desperate to circumvent the rules to pave the way for their return, even without justification.

    As former leaders, they exert influence on the slippery political class, which they can toss around at will because of their stupendous wealth, and which also tosses them around, as the situation permits, because the former leaders and other political actors are “same of the same” and confederates in their hunt for power.

    If Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, president of Nigeria between 2009 and 2015, is being contacted by some unidentified Northern elements to vie for the president, it is not new. He also has the inalienable right to contest. Ahead of last year’s poll, some faceless people attempted to fly the same kite before returning to their sheds after courage deserted them. After some days of noise-making in the media, their voices faded. They went into oblivion. Jonathan has neither acknowledged nor denied the aspiration.

    It is the height of political kleptocracy for certain leaders to always see Aso Villa in Abuja, the seat of government, as their permanent home, when there is no evidence that they possess some superior ideas to back their inordinate ambitions.

    The tenures of the two leaders – Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari – who successfully staged a comeback, were not inspiring, despite their touted soldering credentials and cumulative leadership experience spanning decades. There is no certainty that past leaders, who never bowed out of power in a blaze of glory, should be depended upon for salvation.

    The disease crept into the body politic around the 1970s. War-time Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon, who was expected to unfold a transition programme in October 1970, floundered. He told the anxious nation to wait for the handover in 1976. He was toppled in 1975 by his boys, led by the Communications Minister, General Muritala Mohammed, who succeeded him.

    Curiously, Dr. Gowon, who spent nine years at Dodan Barracks in Lagos as Commandant-General, was overshadowed by covetousness in blissful retirement. Seventeen years later, he sought presidential nomination on the platform of the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP) from his Kaduna base. Also, another former Military Head of State, General Obasanjo, was taken aback. “What did Jack forget in Dodan Barracks that he is going to take?” he queried. Gowon was stopped at the first stage of Option A4. The transition arrangement eventually hit the rock in 1993.

    Also, after five years of power hijack, General Sani Abacha attempted to transmute from a maximum ruler to a civilian president. His military government was tension-soaked. Nigeria was in chaos. Nobody could predict the kind of doom awaiting the country, but it was clear that a huge crisis was looming. Suddenly, General Abacha died. It was the end of a national nightmare.

    Ironically, Obasanjo, who later loomed large on Nigeria’s political stage as president between 1999 and 2007, succeeded where his former boss, Gowon, had failed. But after eight years, there were signposts of a sit-tight agenda which found expression in the inexplicable third term, a tenure extension project that sparked uproar and rage among Nigerians.

    The Evil Genius, Military President Ibrahim Babangida, who bowed out of power in disgrace after his elongated transition programme crashed, sought the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket ahead of 2007. The pact between him and Obasanjo on succession, if any, could not be ascertained. He failed because apart from the factor of Obasanjo, whose succession agenda was not immediately clear, the mood of the nation was totally against the prospect of the reemergence of the ‘Prince of the Niger.’

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    Many notorious soldier-politicians often delude themselves into thinking that Nigerians are enveloped by collective amnesia. In 2011, the residue of ‘June 12’ travellers were planning an onslaught when news filtered from Kaduna that Northern elders had chosen Atiku Abubakar, and not Babangida, as its anointed candidate. On that note, Babangida’s bid to return to power permanently collapsed. Whereas if Babangida had honoured his promise to hand over voluntarily thereby liquidating his self-acquired power, it would have been possible for him to return to power after Abiola’s presidency. The annulment will remain a permanent cross he has to carry for the rest of his life – and perhaps for as long as history will remember.

    Unlike these leaders, shoeless Jonathan from a minority area of Otuoke in Bayelsa State came into the limelight from obscurity. Well-educated, gentle and peaceful, he was catapulted to stardom by fate. He was the opposite of his boisterous and pompous boss, Ijaw Governor General Diepreye Alamiyeseigha, whose larger-than-life image completely dwarfed the personality of the colourless yet affable deputy and spare tyre.

    Without displaying an ambition for the driver’s seat, the position landed on his palm when his governor misbehaved.

    After Obasanjo threw his weight behind Umaru Yar’Adua for president, he found Jonathan the most suitable candidate for the running mate. He did not know the good fortune that awaited him at the PDP Presidential Convention. In 2007, he became vice president.

    Two years later, he became the acting president, through the Doctrine of Necessity, and later, president, following Yar’Adua’s death occasioned by a prolonged illness. After completing the residue of tenure, Jonathan, aided by the tutor, Obasanjo, beat Atiku Abubakar at the primary and defeated Nuhu Ribadu of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) during the 2011 election.

    But instead of taking a bow and exiting the stage when the ovation was loudest in 2015, he insisted on his constitutional right to seek reelection so that he could be sworn in for the third time.

    The decision showed that Jonathan was not a student of history, particularly the history of conventional zoning or power rotation, which underlined the strength of his party. The study of PDP antecedent revealed that any time zoning was jettisoned, the platform was engulfed in an intra-party conflagration.

    Besides, Jonathan’s government had been rendered unpopular and weakened by consistent criticisms and war by the opposition, assisted by the media. His main rival in the then-ruling party – Atiku – said the former president was clueless. Other foes reechoed the dark side of an administration that had overstayed its welcome. Protesters occupied Lagos and Abuja to decry his policies and programmes. The zoning battle raged ahead of 2015 polls, and the critical North/Southwest alliance favoured rotation or power shift to the North with justification – to foster equity, fairness, and justice.

    Although Jonathan viewed the struggle for power as purely political and constitutional, those with a sound knowledge of history perceived it as more of a moral issue. Tension arose between the constitution and party convention, which the former president, with the weight of office, flagrantly violated. The rest, as it is said, is history.

    Jonathan displayed wisdom when he was ousted. He never contested the validity of the poll. Unlike Obasanjo, he did not allow anybody to tear his party membership card for him. But by personal design, he opted for a nominal role in the party that gave him privileges.

    In a post-Jonathan era, the former president never built or nurtured a structure. At home, many of his supporters even teamed up with David Lyon of the All Progressives Congress (APC) against Douye Diri of the PDP in 2019. Neither has he been a reconciliator or rallying point in the party.

    As Atiku and Nyesom Wike are locked in a supremacy battle ahead of PDP’s mini-convention, Jonathan is not yet in the picture. If some northern regional interests are said to be positioning him for 2027, which party is their best bet? It is illusory to ever think that Jonathan would obtain the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket in 2027, even if he defects today.

    Gone are the days when interested or entrenched regional voices hijacked party tickets and started chasing a former president and begging him to join the race with the assurance that he would pick the ticket.

    From all indications, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed’s subtle campaign for Jonathan does not represent the North’s position. He is demonstrating loyalty to his former boss who appointed him as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister while serving in the Senate. But his remark is significant.

    As a PDP leader, he is conscious that in the spirit of fairness, equity, and justice, the South should still produce the next president.

  • What manner of reconciliation in PDP?

    What manner of reconciliation in PDP?

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is at war with itself. The conflict is neither phantasmal nor accidental. It is self-inflicted. It stemmed from its entrenched haughtiness and chronic condescension.

    In its heydays as the ruling party, its leaders strutted the nation’s political landscape like Mafiosi. They appeared like they were the nation’s alpha and omega, and they lived it in deeds and speeches.

    The current state of affairs with the political party that was once so comfortable that it boasted to rule Nigeria for at least sixty years is an anti-climax.

    Like two sides in a battle, PDP’s divided house is now yearning for a truce it would never have needed if it was humble. The party’s search for peace after many months of a needless imbroglio is instructive for discerning politicians.

    But will the PDP be able to put its house in order ahead of future elections?

    The main opposition party is divided over its agenda for reconciliation and party discipline. While a section of the party is genuinely interested in reunion and sincerely pushing for it, another section is looking for scapegoats to remove from leadership positions and probably expel from the fold.

    On the one hand, the party is in search of peace; on the other hand, it is witch-hunting some chieftains and indulging in a blame game. It does not appear to be contemplating mutual forgiveness. Rather, it is further fueling more conflicts. In the melee, rivals are at daggers drawn, spoiling for each other’s pound of flesh. The followers in rival camps are stupefied. Can a house divided against itself remain standing?

    The consequence is that the party remains an opposition on paper, barking but not biting. Its attention is divided by multiple crises, not only at the national leadership but also in many state chapters.

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    Nine years after it was voted out, the PDP has remained in the cold, following the abortion of its dream of staying in power for 60 years.

    Unlike the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is relatively cohesive and easier to lead as the ruling party, the PDP suffers from the absence of effective leadership and a lack of crisis resolution mechanisms. The party is torn apart by the antagonistic ambitions of its leading lights, the clash of egos, and the pursuit of personal interests instead of group interests. This is at the expense of collective survival.

    These days, there is no shortage of Ahitophelian advice for the party in distress. A party sympathiser and elder statesman, Chief Edwin Kiagbodo Clark, suddenly reemerged on the sidelines of the party, urging the members to elevate disciplinary measures over the peace mission. The ever-combative Ijaw leader accused the party’s Acting Chairman, Ambassador Illyas Damagum, of conniving with the ruling APC to ruin the PDP. It may be possible that the great chief and veteran critic has more information about the party than those currently steering its affairs.

    Of course, Chief Clark, a former Federal Commissioner for Information and the Second Republic senator, has an axe to grind with Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike over the protracted Rivers State crisis. Taking sides with Ijaw-born Governor Siminalayi Fubara instead of brokering a truce, Pa Clark called for a probe that would lead to Wike’s expulsion from the party.

    This seemingly divisive position by the octogenarian lawyer and politician has further polarised the platform. What influence Pa Clark wields in the party is not certain. But if his advice is upheld, reconciliation would pale into window dressing as mutual distrust would deepen due to the preconceived thought and predetermined plan to rusticate certain members. The implication is that cohesion would become more elusive while unity and tranquility would remain a tall order.

    Since last year, when it failed to bounce back at the general election, the PDP has been in disarray. It has failed to do a thorough reassessment of how it had missed the road and deviated from the vision of its founding fathers, particularly its cherished tradition and principles of equity, fairness, and justice. Only few founding members are active now and those controlling the party and tossing it around do not listen to wise counsel.

    As the acting chairman was setting up reconciliation and disciplinary panels, it was evident that many other party leaders were not on the same page with him to pursue an agenda for repositioning the platform.

    The first committee is headed by former Osun State Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, while the second is headed by a former Foreign Affairs Minister, Chief Tom Ikimi. Both need wisdom, tact, and cooperation from stakeholders for the accomplishment of their assignments.

    Ironically, Damagum, who set up the two committees, is being targeted for political liquidation by those plotting his removal as acting head of the National Working Committee (NWC) and the National Executive Committee (NEC).

    The Deputy National Chairman (North) became acting chairman, by the party’s constitution, when the embattled National Chairman, Dr. Iyorcha Ayu, could not regain his lost seat.

    Although Damagum can only be removed by a National Convention, those scheming to shove him aside do not bother. The plot to remove him has sparked a fresh crisis. If the scheming for his ouster succeeds, particularly if an unelected person is drafted to take charge outside the National Convention, it would lead to litigation that would compound the current distress.

    Unknown to the current PDP undertakers, genuine reconciliation can only be undertaken in an atmosphere of mutual trust and confidence, devoid of obvious threats to party membership and avoidance of emasculation of perceived opponents.

    While reconciliation at the national level may be hectic, it may be relatively easier by the Oyinlola committee to accomplish the task in many states where local acrimony, bickering, intrigues and division are not fuelled by the war of attrition at the national level. State chapters, like Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Bauchi, Rivers, Edo, Kano, Anambra, Imo, Delta, and Benue need reconciliation.

    Indisputably, the crisis at the national level is an obstacle to the proposed convention of the party, where the successor to the position vacated by Senator Ayu is expected to be elected or selected.

    This poses a challenge that may be beyond the party. If peace returns to the PDP and the party decides to zone its national chairman to the South in anticipation of picking its next presidential candidate from the North, would the South be disposed to losing the presidency until a Southerner completes a two-term tenure at the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja, the seat of government, like former President Muhammadu Buhari did?

    The main issue in the PDP is the struggle for control of the party’s machinery between the camp of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and two-time presidential candidate, and supporters of Wike, former governor of Rivers State, ahead of 2027. The first battle is the national convention that has been postponed because of the lingering crisis.

    But the greater issue, indeed the bone of contention in the PDP, is zoning, or rotation of the presidential ticket, as laid down by the party’s early leaders, and its neglect by those trying to arrogantly sacrifice the bond of unity on the altar of personal ambition. Therefore, any reconciliation that ignores the agreement on power distribution may be dead on arrival.

    There was a conflict over the demand for a Southern presidential candidate last year. What is the assurance that the same conflict will not resurface in 2027?

    The founding fathers of the PDP understood Nigeria as a complex and heterogeneous country thirsty for unity in diversity. There is a perpetual craving for a sense of belonging among the unequal ethnic groups that harbour the fear of marginalisation, exclusion, and deprivation.

    To forge unity, the pioneer leaders identified six top positions and levers of power which they distributed among the six geo-political zones. The positions are the president, the vice president, the Senate President, the House of Representatives Speaker, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), and the National Party Chairman.

    According to the arrangement and agreement, the Presidency should rotate between the North (comprising the Northwest, the Northeast, and the Northcentral) and the South (made up of the Southwest, the Southsouth, and the Southeast).

  • The Patriots and the push for a Constituent Assembly

    The Patriots and the push for a Constituent Assembly

    Chief Emeka Anyaoku is not a man disposed to frivolities. The respected former Commonwealth Secretary-General always publicly avoids politics, even while treading the same path with politicians. He keeps his political choice to his chest.

    The great diplomat does not belong to the crowd of clout chasers. In any group he aligns with, he only speaks when genuine concerns about essential national or international matters exist. When he speaks, people listen.

    This must be why President Bola Tinubu gave him all the attention his calibre of citizen deserves when he led The Patriot, a group of renowned politicians and activists, to the President in Abuja.

    The Patriots is pushing for another Constituent Assembly to produce what it called a People’s Constitution for the country.

    The agenda is popular for one single reason. The consensus is that the Nigerian federal principle is suspect; it does not resolve the fundamental national question. As a corollary, there may be a justification for reopening the discussion for peaceful coexistence among the diverse ethnic groups in this highly complex heterogeneous country.

    Except for the retired diplomat, almost all other members of the group are card-carrying members of ruling and opposition parties and public officials who are now dissecting the national question on a non-partisan platform. As major actors in governance in the last 25 years, they have witnessed – and may have also contributed to – the conditions that have culminated in progress and, at the same time, national adversity.

    The Leaders of Thought avoided the word: “Sovereign National Conference” as if it was politically inflammable while submitting the proposal to President Tinubu. The group does not claim to have the mandate of all Nigerians for the visit. But the eminent citizens must have been propelled by a noble intention and genuine concern for the nation’s survival.

    Observers have noted that despite the uniformity of goal, today’s The Patriots tends to differ significantly from The Patriots under Rotimi William/Ben Nwabueze/Ayo Adebanjo in composition. Relatively young turfs recruited into the fold have tactically ensured that their contrasting personal and political ideological leanings do not obstruct its agenda.

    Three factors may have accounted for their journey to Aso Villa in Abuja to confer with the President.

    The visit coincided with the 10 days of protest and rage over national economic crisis, which conveyed the glaring impression that something was wrong with the country. Therefore, to them, the intervention was timely. But opinions about the protest differ.

    The Patriots, like many other stakeholders, believes that the 1999 Constitution is a fraud because it lied against itself through the preamble: “We, people of Nigeria.” The document was imposed by the military and the periodic piecemeal amendments have not erased the label of imposition, centralisation of power and autocracy.

    The elder statesmen are also conscious of Asiwaju Tinubu’s pedigree and antecedents as a federalist and an irrepressible advocate of power devolution when he was governor of Lagos State and titular national opposition leader.

    The group’s demand might have been borne out of the trust it has in President Tinubu as an unpretentious democrat who would take genuine advice from honest citizens who mean well for their country. The Patriots must have seen an amiable leader they can always approach for discussions on important national issues. Given President Tinubu’s antecedents, the elder statesmen were undoubtedly confident that they could hold his hands and embark on a national voyage of reforms and restorations through an unambiguous constitution for Nigeria.

    But it may also be that they are not satisfied with the steps the current administration has taken so far to return the country to the path of federalism without another constitutional conference. Therefore, a tactical blackmail may not be ruled out.

    Evidently, The Patriots does not also believe in the capacity of the National Assembly to produce a democratic constitution that would restore generally acceptable federalism.

    The Patriots sent delegates to past national conferences which produced laudable reports that provided answers to their demands. But the group avoided a cost-saving measure, urging President Tinubu to organise another conference, like former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan did during their times, instead of retrieving the past reports from the dustbin and lobbying the Parliament for its implementation.

    The Patriots suggested that the proposed Constituent Assembly should comprise people elected on a non-party basis in a relatively politically stable country where political parties are holding on to being the entrenched, influential stakeholders and key institutions of democracy.

    Also, it appears that the pre-existing senatorial districts would be adopted as constituencies where three delegates per state, as suggested by The Patriots, would be voted for. The districts already have 109 senators and 360 House of Representatives members in the National Assembly. These lawmakers may perceive potential elected delegates as rivals.

    Predictably, the tendency is for these legitimate representatives in the national parliament, working with governors, to influence the election of delegates to the Constituent Assembly from the districts under their influence.

    How the election into the Constituent Assembly would be conducted is not in the proposal to the President. Since the group has suggested that delegates should be elected, an umpire has to organise it and determine eligibility for contest, the mode of screening, method of election – either open or secret ballot system, physical counting of voters on queue – reminiscent of the Third Republic method. In Nigeria, there is no shortage of experience.

    Instructively, some members of the group have reviewed their positions on the mode of representation to the Constituent Assembly. Instead of pressing for representation based on ethnic demography, they have adopted the states as broader constituencies. The implication is that the governors, who pay the piper in the states, would dictate the tunes.

    The time frame of ‘six to nine months’ may be unrealistic. The tenure of past conferences was, at least, one year. More issues are likely to come up for discussion, if the Constituent Assembly is set up today. The challenges of development have multiplied in recent times.

    The suggestion by the group that the Constituent Assembly should consider the 1960 Independence 1Constitution and the 1963 Republican Constitution underscores its disposition to a parliamentary system and nostalgic feelings about regionalism. This is nothing short of a retracing of steps. It would be recalled that the late Chief Williams, the first leader of The Patriots, who presided over the 1979 Constitution Review Committee, gleefully recommended the American executive presidential system.

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    As a global citizen, Anyaoku is influenced by the sad experience of disintegrated countries. He fears that Nigeria may follow that path of doom and oblivion if it fails to address its basic pluralism through a federal constitution, warning that the country may go the way of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. His warning reechoed foreign organisations’ prediction two decades ago that state failure was looming and that Nigeria may not survive beyond 2015.

    The summary is that 64 years after its flag independence, Nigeria, in the opinion of these eminent leaders, is not functioning effectively as a federation.

    From being a truly federal nation-state in 1960, the country has wobbled on in a unitary decoy under its self-appointed military modernisers-turned albatross. The over-centralisation of power in the 27 years of dictatorship under militarism have somehow been carried over to the Fourth Republic.

    The coup of 1966 marked the end of federalism. In its perpetually distressed condition, Nigeria has failed to become a united nation. Unity in diversity is a tall order. The multiple crises of nation-building, including the fundamental identity crisis, and the challenges of participation, integration, and distribution of resources, have remained unresolved.

    Therefore, the elder statesmen were obviously seized by nostalgia and nationalism. They yearn for the comparatively saner and productive past when Nigeria was projected as a potential medium-ranking world power, judging by the quality of its diverse population and abundant endowments.

    However, the proposal by The Patriots is not new. Its elements, including the call for a referendum, are not novel. Nigeria has almost become a country of boring ‘confabs’ where billions of naira are spent on jamborees that have led to nowhere.

    In 1989, the Evil Genius, Military President Ibrahim Babangida, set up a Constituent Assembly. Both the 1989 Constitution and the Third Republic never saw the light of the day. In 1994, another Military Head of State, the late General Sani Abacha, organised a Constitutional Conference. It was not an effective outing. It was an ambush against “June 12.” The lack of credibility most citizens attached to it soiled its outing.

    President Olusegun Obasanjo’s 2004 Abuja Conference produced a report. It was sacrificed on the altar of an inexplicable Third Term agenda. President Goodluck Jonathan also set up a talk show; described by Tinubh as a Greek gift and a jamboree. He lacked the courage to implement the recommendations. He pleaded time constraints, saying he could not implement the report because the country was preparing for a general election. His successor, President Muhammadu Buhari, never upheld the report. Past efforts were in vain.

    Perhaps, the only advantage, so far, is that anytime a national conference is held in Nigeria, hope is rekindled and an atmosphere of peace generally pervades the country.

    But in the country’s quest for restructuring through constitutional reforms, there has not been a correspondingly determined effort to tackle corruption and bad leadership across the tiers. This has remained the bane of development. It has to be determined whether or not the current constitutional structure of governance contributes to the subsisting graft and sleaze in high places and the totality of poor governance.

    A federal structure is crucial. So also are operators of the system. The First Republic collapsed, not due to the failure of federalism, but as a result of the stiff struggle for power, ethnic tension, and election rigging. Legitimate authorities could not put their house in order. They played into the hands of the military.

    Also, the Second Republic collapsed not due to defective federal structure but economic mismanagement, electoral malpractices, and monumental corruption. The mistakes of the First Republic were repeated.

    In the past 25 years, there has been unprecedented political stability. If the National Assembly had been up and doing, its legislative activities, particularly the amendments, would have corrected the defections in the 1999 Constitution and paved the way for a true federal structure.

    It is gratifying to note that the Supreme Court is filling the void. Its pronouncements on local government autonomy and interventions in conflicts arising from federal/state relations are clear examples of how the judiciary has lent support to the evolution of a true federal state.

    The current administration’s determination to pursue state police and decentralise the railway gives a ray of hope.

    President Tinubu is not aversed to restructuring, devolution or what is now described as true federalism. His response to The Patriots is two-fold: the government is currently focusing on the economy, and Anyaoku would be invited back for more discussions on The Patriots’ suggestions.

    Till then, the debate over the proposed Constituent Assembly and, indeed, the future of federalism in Nigeria, continues.

  • Security agencies and psychology of protest management

    Security agencies and psychology of protest management

    In a democracy, protest is a legitimate means of ventilating grievances. It is a right guaranteed in the constitution. But the law is also not silent on the responsibility of organisers to stick to the rules.

    The rights and responsibilities of citizens, however well enunciated in their national laws, become deeply inane where some of the citizens lack knowledge about acceptable conducts. You cannot, for instance, find a lawyer getting drunk in public. A professional conduct is in tandem with the tenets of his calling.

    In some parts of the country, especially in the Southwest, most families emphasise good conducts among their members. They impress family etiquettes, the Omoluabi ethos on their sons and daughters. The values are passed to generations to ensure their name is not soiled. Members of such families conduct themselves impeccably, no matter the profession or vocation they find themselves. Where some individuals fail to imbibe such values, the society suffers some consequences.

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    This is why there is a nexus between human conducts and the psychological dispositions of individuals. Human beings, being rational creatures, have the senses for positive and negative thoughts. The thoughts give birth to consequential actions. Both senses are ignited by circumstances. In times of peace and crisis, human beings conduct themselves in different ways based on their psychological dispositions.

    All human beings are teachable where appropriate means of communications are available. But a lack of requisite channels to enlighten the mind results in misdemeanor. 

    An analysis of the #EndBadGovernance protest has thrown up issues about the handling of the protest, which was hijacked, and degenerated into arson, looting, vandalism, destruction of public utilities, maiming and killing.

    It is settled in law that protesters do not need a police permit to hold rallies. Yet, citizens have the right to be protected by security agencies during demonstrations. This legal provision is challenging in a country like Nigeria where the number of policemen is inadequate to effectively carry out this function, especially during nationwide public rallies.

    The matter is further compounded by the frosty relationship between protesters, mostly human rights crusaders, who perceive the police as state agents for brutalisation of civil societies, with the police also perceiving the societal agitators as trouble makers. It is a carryover of the right activists’ perception of the Nigerian police and military as a colonial or neo-colonial institution aptly dedicated more to regime protection than the much flaunted commitment to the defence of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    What is most striking is that peaceful protests are usually rare these days, except they are organised by experienced academic union leaders and labour organisations whose intentions are not to wreak further havoc on the society. Most protests organised by youths are characterised by the usual exuberance peculiar to their adolescent period of adventure, impatience, storm and stress. Up to now, the pains of the wounds inflicted by the #EndSARS protests of October 2020 have not healed. The scars remain indelible.

    It becomes more problematic when protesters are called out to the streets by faceless planners who may later lose control of the crowd they had mobilised. It is now obvious that the arrowheads of protests can hardly control or persuade the crowd to stick to the rules of the action. It is usually a mixed crowd of actual agitators and area boys who were not party to the planning.

    In fact, the miscreants do not understand that a protest should be conducted within the bounds of reason. To them, a protest is an opportunity to display their unruly behaviours. When hoodlums hijack protests from the original mobilisers by easily infiltrating the ranks of genuine and peaceful protesters, there is derailment and the fundamental objective is defeated.

    When protesters refuse to be confined to parks for legitimate protests and they insist on staging rallies on highways to deliberately disrupt the flow of traffic, thereby causing confusion and mayhem, criminal elements unknown to the planners have dominated the show.

    More worrisome is the tacit support given to protest by opposition politicians seeking a pound of fresh from the ruling chief executive. The growing partisan feeling that only violent protests are more impactful is  more worrisome.

    If state police was in vogue in Nigeria, maybe, the local, community or state policing structure would have been more effective in preventing the riots. The assumption is that the District Police Officer (DPO) and his men may have knowledge of the hyperactive youths in the locality and fish them out while attempting to hijack a lawful protest.

    Also, many believe that intelligence gathering becomes relatively easier because policemen operating in specific area are conversant with the geography, sociology, tradition, and demography of the environment.

    Many protesters see policemen as enemies that thwart their action. In some instances, they deliberately provoke the police, abusing and calling them names. Many policemen have lost their lives during riots and, in most cases, society did not bother about the implications of their demise for their bereaved families and loved ones. When they are pushed to the wall and they shoot, they attract public rebuke. No matter the extent of arson or violence perpetrated by protesters, the public expectation is that in the event of police intervention, there should be no single casualty; there should be no firing of shots and no life should be lost.

    There are puzzles: how can the wheat be separated from the chaff in that moment of tension when an orderly march turns bloody and miscreants become the companions of genuine agitators?

    Should security agents allow the disruption of public peace to continue by those whose activities threaten national security?

    If the violence perpetrated by hijackers is not curtailed on time, would the public spare law enforcement agents for not coming to their rescue? Would the police not be accused of dereliction of duty?

    How should policemen or soldiers, in extreme cases, respond to invasion of private property and public utilities, and the carting away of valuables under the guise of hunger protest?

    How should security agencies restore normalcy without casualties, especially among recalcitrant agitators?

    Two eminent Nigerians – former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Nobel Laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka – raised objections to the police management of the protest. Soyinka felt that it fell below expectations. Atiku complained about the use of lethal arm. It is reassuring that where a policeman was found culpable in the death of a protester in a northern state, the officer was made to face prosecution.

    As violence erupted and tension rose, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, even warned that soldiers might come to the rescue, if police efforts became inadequate. The ‘Aid to Civil Power’ is offered as a last resort by the military, following the glaring failure of police action. It is a special operation, and the civil method of the police may have to give way to optimal ruthlessness. Whenever this method is adopted, it is obvious that the nation is on edge.

    Nationwide protests do not occur suddenly. Organisers usually give a notice of intention. This gives security agencies an opportunity to also issue their warnings against violence. The danger is that unscrupulous elements that cause violence often resort to using peaceful demonstrations as cover.

    Policemen drafted to the scene should be specially prepared through short training for management of protest. Coordination of intervention is also crucial. From the psychological point of view, there could be a rush of emotion. Indeed, handling protests by policemen could be stressful.

    While the use of teargas, rubber bullets, and hot waters could be acceptable to disperse protesters, the temptation to use live bullets should always be avoided. Force could be used to disperse rioters but not necessarily to punish or repress demonstrators. The global acceptable standard appears to be that lethal weapon should not be used where there is no clear threat to safety of life and property by protesters.

    Policemen should understand that protesters may be associated with minor violations that do not constitute a great infraction or real threat to public security. For example, in the protest environment, mass gathering may momentarily cripple vehicular movement, thereby constituting a negligible infringement on other people’s freedom of movement.

    Also, instead of focusing on arrest, detention and use of force, policemen could also use psycho-social skills. For example, the Lagos State police commissioner deployed his human relations skills while managing the recent protest at Ojota.

    While protesters wanted to invade the Ojota/Ketu highway, thereby causing traffic snarls, he employed persuasion. They listened to his pleas, knowing that he was on the ground to protect them.

    The police public relations skill extended to cracking jokes, serving water and some snacks. Even, policemen occasionally joined the crowd in dancing along with them to show a sense of solidarity. The sustained flow of communication between the policemen and protesters engendered a sort of mutual trust. There was no molestation by the policemen. There was, therefore, respect for the sanctity of life.

    The police boss demonstrated wisdom and tact. Aided by the court injunction, he was able to restrict many of the protesters to the Gani Fawehinmi Park, which was prepared as protest ground. When some of them stayed on the highway, he deployed his men for traffic control. The result was that, unlike the disastrous #EndSARS protest, public utilities were not destroyed and no life, either of a policeman or protester, was lost. There was no casualty.

    The protest would have achieved its major aim across the country if there was psychological understanding and trust among the agitators, government officials and the security agencies.

    The government – at all levels – needs to embark on a wide public enlightenment campaign on the need for peaceful conducts during agitations. The government of defunct Western State employed this method to enlighten the people even where there was only one radio station and a television station in the region. That approach could be brought back in a modernised way.

    It is easier to destroy than to build. Infrastructure that was built for years takes only minutes to bring down in a moment of uncontrolled fury. Prevention, we all know, is better than cure.

  • The cost of protest

    The cost of protest

    The faceless organisers had dubbed their planned #EndBadGovernnace protest with a foreboding: “Days of Rage.”

    It turned out that the first day carried a blazing compass towards that cataclysmic direction. There were reasons to believe that the agitation might slip into chaos, given the outcome of past actions. Thankfully, some prescient governments, especially in the Southwest, took proactive measures to prevent bedlam. Before the nation went to bed, the protest caused huge losses that would take some time to quantify and recover from.

    Vehicles were off the roads from the wee hours, especially on major routes. Economic and social activities were paralysed. Shops were under lock and key. Banks did not open. Markets, filling stations and schools were shut. Many ordinary folks and workers who were not on essential duties stayed indoors.

    In Lagos, the nation’s commercial nerve centre, there were fears about hoodlums and merchants of chaos unleashing mayhem on innocent citizens conducting their legitimate businesses. Many residents stayed indoors in the fear that movement would be hampered. Their experience in the October 2020 #EndSARS outrageous destruction still lingers.

    Artisans and peasants lost daily income. Flights were slightly disrupted. Business schedules were cancelled. Everybody’s attention was on the action. The attention of the world was also on Nigeria.

    There was panic. The country was enveloped in anxiety. Many stayed glued to their television sets for the latest information. Others stayed close to their radio to monitor events. Many relied on social media, the purveyors of authentic and fake news.

    The reason for the apprehension was obvious. Although a protest is legal, the organisers’ dubbing of the agitation 10 days of rage drove fear through the spines of the citizens. Rage means strong, extreme, and uncontrolled violent anger. Therefore, discerning Nigerians remembered the #EndSARS protest and the mayhem unleashed by those who hijacked it, the destruction of public facilities and the avoidable loss of lives.

    Some of the demands of the arrowheads were genuine; others were laughable. Curiously, the agitators were oblivious of the fact that some of the demands were being addressed by government. However, certain unrealistic demands underscored the idealistic yearnings of the youths who swim in the pool of subjectivity.

    Indisputably, there was tacit support for the protests by opposition figures who were injured by the outcome of the fiercely contested 2023 presidential election, which resulted in bitter litigation that ultimately terminated at the Supreme Court. This makes the contest, in part, the continuation of the battle for power. Their strategy is to mobilise and manipulate the public against the government, and incite their supporters and other gullible people against its policies with a tactical intention to weaken it ahead of the 2027 poll.

    No doubt, the threat shook the government, which started reeling out its scorecards across the sectors, its ongoing people-oriented policies and programmes, particularly those targeted at the youths, and their future projection for national prosperity.

    At the end of the first day of protest, the fears of the government, statesmen, traditional rulers and religious leaders who had cautioned against the protest were confirmed. Experts noted that N100 billion was lost in Lagos to economic disruption.

    Predictably, it turned violent in other states. Those who claimed to be the organisers failed to lead the protest. In some states, it was a semblance of an uprising. Though reports gave different casualty figures, 11 lives were said to have been lost in four states, the least of the figures. Many public assets were destroyed. Private properties were vandalised.

    In Kano, protesters even threatened to invade the Government House before they were forcefully dispersed to prevent unpleasant consequences. The Digital Innovation Park in Kano slated for launch next week was a casualty of a colossal assault. It was built to support the technical talent accelerator (3MTT). Alongside the #3MTT, the building was meant to host the buildathon holiday maker programme for secondary school kids from next week.

    Communication and Innovation Minister Bosun Tijani was in shock that some Nigerians could set ablaze and loot such a national asset in the guise of a protest. It is a slight setback for the country’s journey to deepening the workforce for technology while creating job opportunities for the youth. In his words: “Millions of naira down the drain.”

    In Niger, Yobe, Kaduna, Gombe, Jigawa, and Borno, the protest degenerated into riots. An account said Boko Haram criminals infiltrated the rank of the demonstrators, killing some people.

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    While other governors urged their people to rethink the protest, Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf promised to join them and and take their petition to higher authorities. The amorphous band of protesters ignored his advice to make it peaceful. As His Excellency felt the heat, he had to declare a curfew to halt the escalation of violence and wanton destruction of public property.

    In Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), some roads were barricaded and vehicular movement was hindered. It meant those exercising their freedom of association and assembly inadvertently violated other people’s freedom of movement. A police station was razed in the FCT.

    As urchins joined the protesters, there was hullabaloo. There was loss of control.

    In Dutse, the capital of Jigawa, the secretariat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was torched. In Katsina, some miscreants called for a military takeover, oblivious of past protracted battles against sit-tight military interlopers.

    These scenarios imply that protesters in Nigeria are not mature agitators who would not veer into looting, arson, vandalism and other forms of misdemeanours. It is ironical that those complaining against bad governance are also very disorganised in their approaches.

    Remarkably, the protests polarised the polity. While some protesters, whose actions appear justifiable because of the glaring and persistent hardship satisfied their appetite for protest, there were also protests in support of the Tinubu administration by equally patriotic, rational and objective citizens who disagreed that the government had failed.

    The 12-point demands of the first group are as follows: “Revert petrol pump price to N100/litre; combat insecurity and hunger; close all IDP camps and resettle the campers; total electoral reform, independent probe into the electoral budget of N355 billion; immediate release of #EndSARS protesters still in detention; and implementation of a living wage (the minimum wage of N300,000).”

    Others are “compulsory free education from primary to secondary school, children of public school holders must attend public schools in the country, the government must patronise made-in-Nigeria goods, transition to unicameral legislation as well as judicial and constitutional reviews.”

    The organised Labour, which was not a party to the protest, had sealed a deal of N70,000 minimum wage. The quest for electoral reforms and constitution review is good. But instead of protesting, many believe that the planners should have taken advantage of the ongoing constitutional amendment and submitted their memoranda to the National Assembly.

    #EndSARS protesters are in two categories. There are legitimate and law-abiding protesters. Zlso, some hoodlums killed and maimed during the violent protests. Asking for a blanket release of detainees is illogical. The wheat has to be separated from the chaff. While legitimate protesters who were rounded up and clamped into detention should be released, suspected arsonists who killed policemen, torched council secretariats and courts and destroyed public buses and other infrastructures should be isolated and charged to court.

    Ahead of the on-going protest, many leaders urged calm and appealed for dialogue. However, the planners could not be identified on time. They were invisible, trying to cast a sort of shadow. This is strange. The lack of identity aggravated the anxiety. Many people started insinuating that the promoters were agents of aggrieved politicians who lost their bids for political control in last year’s elections.

    The time frame for the protest was so disturbing that the organisers’ legal adviser counselled them to reduce it from 10 to three days. His idea was that the mobilisers and organisers of the protest should not end up organising a bad, unnecessary, prolonged and boring agitation. The more the protesters stay on the street, the more the action is susceptible to hijack.

    Also, in Abuja, Abeokuta, and Lagos, the protesters had court injunctions to contend with. According to court rulings, they were restricted to certain locations and processions were disallowed. The protesters could not allow themselves to be confined to the locations specified by the authorities in Lagos and Abuja, which were projected as the epicentres. In Ojota, the protesters broke into two groups. A group complied with the ruling by moving into the Gani Fawehinmi Park. Another group decided to stay on the highway, thereby disrupting the flow of traffic. It appears some people harbour the feeling that a protest is unsuccessful until there is violence.

    But, how can the procession be legally interpreted? At least, the protesters had to move en mass from a takeoff point to the restricted location.

    The major lesson of the partly successful and partly failed protest is that dialogue is better than thoughtless confrontation. It should be explored and exhausted before embarking on protest, and even strike, which may be a weapon of last resort.

    Protest organisers should develop better skills for interest articulation and organisation of mass action in a strategic way that will not permit the infiltration of hoodlums who are likely to hijack and derail the objective of the popular action.

    Since planners clamour for police protection for protesters, it is imperative, for operational efficiency, that they and the police, who are also citizens, should mutually agree on practical guidelines that will make the protest effective without a damage to the social order. The baseline is the removal of the age-long suspicion between civil society and the police.

    As at the time of writing this peace, it is gratifying that the police have handled the protest in a professional manner. There have been provocations. But, security agencies have exercised restraint despite the display of criminal tendencies by protesters in some states.

    In the last one year, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has focused on the challenges of rebuilding and repositioning the economy. There are more grounds to cover. He deserves the support of all and sundry. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

    The onus is still on the government to move speedily to douse tension by constructively engaging the organisers who should now show their faces. There should be an interface with the youth segment and improved communication focusing on the achievements, plans for economic revitalisation and speedy implementation of programmes that would quickly herald a new lease of life.