Category: Sunday

  • 2015: Can ‘paradise’ be regained?

    2015: Can ‘paradise’ be regained?

    Given Nigeria’s precipitous and barbarous descent into near anarchy and mediocrity, especially from the 1980s onward, it is difficult and painful to remember that Nigeria was not always the social and political pariah it has become in the eyes of the world. The military regimes of the 80s and 90s hastened that descent, and the democratic governments of the late 90s up to the present virtually sealed Nigeria’s unwholesome reputation. Sadly for children born in the 90s, many of whom are now in university, and are hence potential opinion moulders in the near and distant future, they have known no other cultures than the one engendered by the Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan governments. Older Nigerians have had a glimpse of ‘paradise’ so-called, and have lived under the tantalising hope of creating real paradise in Nigeria or re-creating the imperfect paradise of their youthful longing, but the new generation whose distorted values have exacerbated the social chaos and economic distress the country is contending with has had no inkling of paradise, real or make-believe.

    As Nigeria prepares for the 2015 polls, it is time the sensible among the electorate pondered Nigeria’s past and present in order to make the right choice. For far too long, sentiments had influenced decisions and choices, producing men like Chief Obasanjo who have contributed nothing significant to the country’s civilisation, and others like Dr Jonathan who have produced perhaps the most elaborate schemes for the mediocritisation and ruination of the country. Chief Obasanjo probably has a little fire in his belly for Nigeria’s greatness; the problem however is that he lacked the discipline and the intellectual and visionary capacity to bring it about. Being an extreme narcissist, he was also quite incapable of detaching himself and his vile private goals from the great and noble objectives of a powerful nation.

    On the other hand, Dr Jonathan is immeasurably worse. He pretends to transcend tribe and claims to be impervious to religious bigotry. But he has been unable to overcome the parochialism of his youth, a fact so evident even in his Niger Delta redoubt where he has surrendered to the irredentism of his Ijaw brothers to the detriment of other ethnic groups, and has in addition blithely acquired the sectarian extremism of the Middle Ages, pitting Christians against Muslims. For a country long accustomed to groaning under poor leadership and bad policies, it is now also being made to suffocate under deliberately concocted social, economic and political schisms. In about 30 years, a period productively utilised by other nations in Southeast Asia to plot their way out of underdevelopment, Nigeria has under seven megalomaniacal rulers plunged into poverty and near chaos, held together only by the thinnest of threads.

    Looking at Nigeria today and the mess its rulers have made of it, who could have imagined that the same country produced the likes of Thomas Adeoye Lambo, a world-renowned scholar and psychiatrist, and Teslim Olawale Elias, famous scholar and internationally reputed jurist of the first rank? I limit myself to these two examples for reason of space. The 50s, 60s and 70s were a time of great promise for Nigeria, a time of can-do spirit, a time when the world seemed to be at our feet, inviting us to dare and to conquer. Even the civil war years could not fully dampen this new age of optimism, irrespective of whether the misunderstanding and mistakes that prompted and promoted the war were fully resolved or not. Sports grew in substance and frills, producing its stars and local heroes; and education received a boost even in the midst of the very profound social buoyancy and élan that hallmarked the careers of great musical impresarios.

    Professors Lambo and Elias bestrode the national scene like colossi. They gave the impression their scholastic achievements were products of little efforts. In reality, however, their fame was the result of intense intellectual applications and exertions. We took it for granted that we would always produced such men of importance, and that in fact we could produced many more with a little bit more flexibility and resources. While Prof Lambo was the first Western-trained African in neuropsychiatry, and rose in 1975 to become the Deputy Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Justice Elias was the first African jurist to become the president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the Hague, and five years later was appointed to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. In fact at a time, Justice Elias was Nigeria’s Attorney-General and Minister of Justice as well as professor of law and Dean Faculty of Law, University of Lagos, while never letting up in writing great law books, lecturing in far flung places like India, and drafting the constitutions of some countries.

    Sometime in 1995, in an interview with a magazine I worked for, Prof Lambo moaned about the appallingly low quality of leadership stymieing Nigeria’s development. He argued that given their predilections, it was obvious that most of them were mentally unwell. He then suggested it was necessary to subject anyone aspiring to leadership position to mental health checks. Even though that was never done, and indeed cannot be done, it was clear that he knew what he was talking about, having pioneered the study of psychiatry in Nigeria and displayed uncommon initiative and brilliance in marrying native psychiatry with Western practice, or what he called methodological syncretism. In fact, his study of traditional psychiatry yielded a huge trove of information that became integrated into the practice of psychiatry worldwide. For instance, he was first to draw attention to the vast superiority of the psychotherapeutic sessions of African traditional healers, as well as their unquantifiable pharmacopoeia of herbal and psychotropic drugs. So comprehensive were his discoveries that he became a regular face in world psychiatric lecturing circuits.

    The intimidating achievements of Profs Lambo and Elias, their humongous scholastic works, their effortless internationalism, their unfathomable pioneering works, and the huge respect and honour they garnered for Nigeria were indications of a period in Nigerian life and history that gave hope of a greater future for learning, politics, leadership and social and economic development. It felt good to be a Nigerian, and the world looked in our direction at a time when racism was still a stirring and provocative issue. Nigerian leaders themselves never really managed to appreciate the priceless talents the two professors put at their disposal, given the depressing fact that both the Aguiyi Ironsi regime and the Murtala/Obasanjo junta relieved Justice Elias of his post. But overall, the world recognised the abundant talents Nigerians possessed, and were willing to take advantage of them.

    Two main factors combined to destroy the hope Prof Lambo and Justice Elias represented for Nigeria. The first is the destruction of the Nigerian economy by, essentially, the military; and the second is the absolute lack of vision and intelligence by the same rulers. These two factors are still with us, and have in fact worsened under Dr Jonathan. He may have a PhD, but he has neither ruled like one who has that coveted degree, nor behaved even minimally like someone exposed to the cut and thrust of academic atmosphere, and the liberalism and accommodation a typical university environment affords its denizens. In the past two decades or so, the world has had pure contempt for Nigeria. Today, that contempt has risen virulently and obnoxiously to the level of shock and pity.

    Recall that after Dr Jonathan and his government mishandled the Chibok schoolgirls abduction, a few Western powers led by the United States offered a helping hand. Well, they have all left in frustration, deeply shocked by what they found, according to them, of a country completely rudderless, and leadership so inept. The world can’t seem to reconcile itself to its knowledge of our past and the decay of our present. Nor can those of us who glimpsed that peculiarly Nigerian potential for greatness. No one, no foreigner, and no member of the future generations will forgive us if we make the blunder of reinstating Dr Jonathan and his henchmen of greedy, proud and insular aides and supporters. Worse, there is no proof that given the way the military, Department of State Service (DSS) and other national institutions are being subverted and destroyed, that we would have the opportunity of remedying our folly sometime in the future if we repeat the blunder.

  • Hypocrites in power

    Hypocrites in power

    Power of election: No one is talking about subsidy removal again

    Just how hypocritical public officials can be in Nigeria was exhibited by the country’s finance commissioners when early in the year, specifically on April 13, they met in Abuja and passed a resolution for the removal of fuel subsidy, shortly after the month’s meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). According to Timothy Odah, Chairman of the Forum of Commissioners of Finance of the 36 states of the Federation, under whose auspices the commissioners passed the resolution, the decision became inevitable because of certain irregularities observed in the fuel subsidy regime. The meeting, which was chaired by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Jonah Otunla, was convened for the purpose of considering and approving the statutory allocations for February 2014.

    According to Odah, “We looked at subsidy on oil as more or less a solution worse than the problem it is meant to solve. Looking at it presently, you will discover that it is not solving the problem which it is meant to solve. In the first place, the NLC (Nigeria Labour Congress) and the majority of the Nigerian populace appear to have been deceived into clamouring for subsidy. “It is a system that robs Peter to pay Paul by making the rich to grow richer and the poor to go poorer”. Odah is not done: “There are some states that are fully industrialised and you use this subsidy in that particular place and the people who benefit more are those from the states that are industrialised,” he said, adding “So, what we are advocating is that the subsidy be removed so that every state or any member of the federating unit sharing from FAAC will take his own money, then decide to use it or grant subsidy in a level that it will be able to afford.”

    That was only about nine months before. Today, all the government officials clamouring for fuel subsidy removal have suddenly gone dumb; they have all conveniently forgotten a situation which they had presented as precarious if fuel subsidy was not removed.  Indeed, the way the commissioners went about their campaign for subsidy removal then, weeping louder than the bereaved, no one would have thought the country could still be up standing by now if their prayer was not answered.  After the meeting, they promised to take their resolution to their respective governors for onward transmission to President Goodluck Jonathan, who would have gladly embraced it, claiming it was the wish of the state governments; as if we did not know that the so-called resolution was the product of their conspiracy against Nigerians. The finance commissioners even gave a deadline for the implementation of the subsidy removal.

    Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for Nigerians, one thing had led to the other since they passed that satanic resolution, resulting in the fast depletion of whatever was left of the Federal Government’s goodwill. God threw confusion into their midst, with the Jonathan administration’s serial wobbling and fumbling in major policy decisions. There was the government’s running battle with Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State. Matters were not helped by the defection of the House of Representatives Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) on October 28. The ruling party was yet to recover from the shock occasioned by Tambuwal’s defection when the APC held its national convention at which General Muhammadu Buhari emerged the party’s presidential flag bearer. All these naturally weakened the government’s ability or resolve to take the sort of anti-people’s decision that subsidy withdrawal represents.

    As at April when the state governments conspired with the Federal Government to further compound the hardship of Nigerians, the three tiers of government had a total of N634.721 billion that was shared among them as federal allocation for the month. That was N6.659 billion less than the N641.380 billion shared to the three tiers of government the previous month. Naturally, as a result of the lopsided revenue sharing formula, the Federal Government got N249.060 billion (52.68%) as against the N249.084 billion in March. The state governments got N126.327 billion (26.72%) as against the N126.339 billion they got in March while the local governments were given N97.392 billion (20.60%) as against N97.402 billion in March.  For the month, the oil producing states got N55.182 billion as 13 percent derivation revenue compared to the N57.270 billion they got in the preceding month.

    The mystery in the government revenue is that, as at April when the states were clamouring for fuel subsidy removal, crude prices were still high, compared with what they were last December. The challenges then had to do with stealing of crude and dwindling demand for the commodity by its former major importer, the United States of America. But then,   a report published by the Publicity Department of the Federal Ministry of Finance on December 22, 2014, indicated that the generated revenue for last November was N35.438 billion more than the N593.337 billion generated in October 2014 and shared to the three tiers of government in November 2014. In essence, therefore, the three tiers of government shared N628.8billion, only N6billion less than what was shared in April. Given the fall in crude prices, one would have thought the revenue would have dropped significantly. Indeed, an official report more or less confirmed this mystery: “A drastic drop of 33% in export volume between September 2014 and October 2014 and a further drop in crude oil price from $96.81 in September 2014 to $87.78 in October 2014 impacted negatively on the revenue for the month. Other issues that had negative impact on the revenue include the ongoing ‘Force Majeure’ by Shell since June 2014 and incessant shutdowns and shut-in of trunks and pipelines at various terminals”.

    In spite of these developments, would it not have been a natural consequence for the states to intensify their quest for fuel subsidy removal? As at last December, more state governments had been unable to pay workers’ salaries than the situation was in April. In essence, the states’ woes had multiplied as at December much more than they were in April. Yet, they have not remembered fuel subsidy removal. Is that not deceitful, because the only reason they have remained silent on the matter is the 2015 general election. Even some of the state governments that one had hoped would dissociate themselves from the resolution then kept quiet, apparently hoping that they too would be able to get more money should they succeed in forcing the subsidy removal down the throats of Nigerians. Apparently they had battled the Federal Government unsuccessfully on their dwindling revenue and thought the people would be a softer bone. Yet, we know that not much is happening in many of the states whose governments want subsidy removed. They only wanted more money to share.

    So, anyone with the impression that the governments, federal and states, are not talking about fuel subsidy removal now because of the fall in crude prices should perish the thought. In Nigeria, successive governments have proved that such logic has no place here as there are always people to defend such nonsense on behalf of the government. The ‘any government in power’ (AGIP) people are not in short supply here. If they are short of reasons as to why the subsidy must go, they will tell Nigerians that government revenue has fallen and there is the need to augment it. Their ears will be deaf to the argument of rational thinkers that fall in crude prices should naturally translate to reduction in the pump prices of fuel, obedient only to their own warped logic.

    The truth is that political calculations have changed in the country such that even the hitherto arrogant ruling party at the federal level knows that things will no longer be the same when voting takes place next month. The calibre of defectors from the party must have taught those in charge there that these are not the best of times to even whisper anything concerning fuel subsidy removal. To some extent, therefore, the shift in political alliances is a benefit to Nigerian voters in that it is making them the king that they should be. But this should not be an excuse for people to go to sleep yet; Nigerians should still learn to police their votes on the Election Day if truly they are desirous of ‘one man, one vote’ in elections as obtain in civilised climes.

    However, in order to be fully assured that the politicians would not resurrect fuel subsidy removal after the elections have been won and lost, Nigerians should make the political parties to tell them what they intend to do about the matter now. In other words, if any of them still has anything against fuel subsidy, he should say it now, or  forever hold his peace on  the issue. It is not the fault of Nigerians that subsidy is not getting to the appropriate people; it is not their fault too that their country blessed with crude oil is importing refined petroleum products.

  • 2015 Politics: Oh God our help  in ages past…

    2015 Politics: Oh God our help in ages past…

    As we pray for divine help in relation to the 2015 presidential and other elections, let us not forget that choosing a leader through elections is basically a terrestrial and not a celestial endeavour

    For a society that is world famous or notorious for having more prayer warriors than any other country of its size on the planet to have gone in the last few weeks into a higher praying gear must mean  that citizens are more apprehensive than they normally are. The source of apprehension appears to be the polity, particularly the conflict between the politics of tradition and change. So manifest is the perceived threat to Nigeria’s peace and progress that even the Pope found time to ask for a special prayer for Nigeria.  Obasanjo has also called for special prayers and fasting for Nigeria. Political and religious leaders and their followers are calling for divine intervention from various corners of the country in matters that are essentially human constructs. Those with the courage to recognise separation of church/mosque and state are calling in their own recommendations for caution and restraint on the part of politicians, as a way to save the country from the abyss in 2015.

    Given the stridency of calls on God to save the country, first-time visitors to the country would have thought that Christianity and Islam had just come to the country and that those in positions of leadership in the country have just known Jesus or Mohammed. Such people would not realise that there had been no time since 1960 that the country’s leaders had not been persons of Christian or Islamic faith. Even during the decades of military rule, all the dictators from Gowon to Abacha and their assistants were Christians or Muslims. Nothing is new about the current enthusiasm of political and cultural leaders to push political issues to God. This practice is in consonance with the habit of the average Nigerian to give unto God what is Caesar’s. Buck passing is an aspect of the proverbial Nigerian Factor.

    There seems to be no cogent reason for the palpable fear and tension that have enveloped the nation since the emergence of Buhari and Jonathan as presidential candidates of the country’s two major political parties. It is hard to find any reason for the panic that has become manifest in all sections of the polity, particularly among direct and indirect spokespersons for the status quo. Many young people are wondering why elders and adults in public life are worried stiff about 2015,  to the extent that those not calling frantically for prayers seem compelled by the look of things to call for  special protocols to replace the constitution.

    Just recently, a one-time minister of foreign affairs called  (apparently out of concern for peace and stability in the country) on presidential candidates and their parties to sign a special memorandum of  understanding in which they pledge not to allow their supporters to get violent after the presidential  election. One wrong assumption about post-election violence is that it is candidates and party leaders that allow voters to protest against election malpractice when citizens perceive that their votes have been stolen. In all the elections that had led to violence on account of rigging in this country: 1965 Western Nigeria’s parliamentary election; 1983 Ondo State gubernatorial election; and the spontaneous one at the end of the 2011 presidential election; there was no evidence that it was candidates or party leaders that instigated voters to get on the streets to defend their votes.  A more realistic and dependable way to prevent post-election violence is for INEC to ensure that the elections are not only free and fair but are also seen by members of all political parties to be free and fair. This is a surer way to prevent any violence than making candidates sign special Memorandum of Undertakings.

    It is INEC that is charged constitutionally to conduct free and fair elections.  It is not the job of the president to promise free and fair elections.  All encouragements should be given to INEC to do its job in such a way that it does not throw Nigeria into avoidable crisis on account of poor or substandard performance of a task that is crucial to the country’s peace and stability. The constitutional responsibility of the president vis-à-vis election does not go beyond ensuring adequate funding of the agency charged with conduct of election. It is not the job of the president to conduct election; he only needs to guarantee the independence of the electoral body. President Jonathan also has no reason to be promising that the election will be free and fair, as doing so implies that there is a role for the president in conducting an election constitutionally assigned to an independent electoral commission.

    Given the erratic nature of release of PVCs to registered voters, INEC does not appear to be doing enough to give citizens time to collect their PVCs.  The system of giving out PVCs on and off in different parts of the country at different times does not make for the efficiency required for the important task of ensuring that no duly registered citizen is disenfranchised. Part of the tension in the air must be related to the fact that there are still thousands or even millions of voters who are yet to collect their permanent voter cards six weeks to the election. For example, Elebu in Iddo Local Government area of Ibadan still had at the beginning of this week thousands of permanent voter cards waiting to be collected by their owners. There may be many more of such wards all over the country that are yet to release PVCs to potential voters.

    Instead of asking for memorandum of undertaking from candidates, efforts can still be made to ensure that INEC is able to give out all permanent voter cards before the elections. PVCs that are not collected by the end of January should be invalidated and their numbers published in national dailies. In other words, the best way to assure Nigerians that their votes matter is to ensure that INEC is able to conduct free and fair elections in an atmosphere that is devoid of any form of intimidation of voters. What happened in Ekiti and Osun States earlier in the year should not be a model for the 2015 elections. It is reassuring that President Jonathan had promised in his New Year message that INEC would be given all the support it needs to conduct free and fair elections in 2015.

    Our democracy must be prepared to experience whatever difficulties are part of electoral democracy. We should do everything to organise a credible election and have the courage to abide by citizens’ verdict at the polls. The strength of democracy is that candidates-be they incumbents or not-have the same chance to persuade citizens to vote for them at elections. And once an election is free and fair, any party that becomes violent then becomes an enemy of democracy and the country. And citizens should be up to the task to resist any senseless violence driven by any individual’s inordinate ambition. In other words, what needs to inspire pundits and citizens about the elections of February of 2015 is the imperative of free and fair election.

    Furthermore, media pundits need to avoid misleading the average voter through sensational headlines about perfect candidates for the presidency. There is no candidate anywhere in the world that is perfect for any office. It is not part of the culture of democracy to look for perfect candidates or messiahs.  Let our media assist our people to do what people do in other democracies: choose the best fit for the job at hand out of the many candidates presented by political parties. As we pray for divine help in relation to the 2015 presidential and other elections, let us not forget that choosing a leader through elections is basically a terrestrial and not a celestial endeavour. Putting electoral matters in hands of God may not be enough to guarantee free and fair elections.

    Let us remember that our responsibility as citizens and leaders is to ensure that the election to choose the next set of leaders to govern the country is transparently free and fair. Once an incontrovertibly free and fair election is assured, we can be sure that all the gods that 160 million Nigerians worship in different ways will be around to help shame anyone who opts for violence.

  • Okonjo-Iweala’s characteristic understatement

    Okonjo-Iweala’s characteristic understatement

    For those determined to vote for President Goodluck Jonathan a second time, let them take counsel from the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy (CME), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, whose continuing and characteristic understatements and underestimation of the harm being done to the Nigerian economy have become quite stifling. She speaks of ‘some challenges’ to the 2014 budget, and seeks to reassure the public that the problems confronting the economy are not such as should frighten or alarm the people. Oil production has slumped by a mere 180,000bpd, she says, and price of oil has slumped to less than $60 per barrel from a June peak of $114 per barrel, all juxtaposed against a 2015 budget benchmark price of $77 per barrel.

    But when she adds that by October, it was obvious that budget target revenue had fallen short by about a  trillion naira, and capital budget for the third quarter of 2014 could not be cash-backed to the tune of about N100bn, we were looking up the barrel of a looming disaster. Principally, the minister blames production shut-in consequent upon pipeline vandalism for the revenue shortfall, a vandalism Dr Jonathan has spectacularly been unable to tackle because he entrusted misfits with the task of pipeline protection. Arguing that oil price may never rise to $100 per barrel, the minister says the government will embark on a number of policy initiatives to diversify revenue.

    It is clear to everybody, except Jonathan diehards, that the Dr Jonathan government is incompetent to handle the economic disaster that is unfolding upon Nigeria. Many states are unable to pay salaries as and when due, and are even owing more than a month or two; the judiciary is also finding it difficult to pay salaries at month’s end; the federal government is also experiencing difficulty paying all its staff at once; and many companies are shutting down amidst contradictory and harsh fiscal and monetary policies. In spite of the government’s half-baked Sure-P programme, unemployment is galloping ahead as a welter of criminal activities, including kidnapping, insurgency and armed robbery, overwhelms the country.

    It does not require a soothsayer to recognise that should Dr Jonathan be re-elected, his government would in response to the mounting economic problems unleash a poisonous cocktail of hasty, panicky and half-baked policies upon the country. The policies would be harsh, even cruel, wide-ranging and, in view of the obvious fact that the economic problems were either engendered by the government or mishandled by the government, inadequate and misdirected. Dr Jonathan has spent the last six years or so of his government misdirecting the country and refusing to anticipate problems; another term in office would not suddenly lead him to a burst of fresh, insightful and appropriate policies. Consider, for instance, how barely one year into his presidency, the number of fuel (PMS) importers rose to about 140 in 2011 from a tolerable 19 in 2008, and subsidy payment also rose to about N2.5 trillion as at December 2011 from a budget figure of about N245bn. The mad looting, in the midst of other unaccounted spending totalling some $10bn or $12bn, has still not been fully explained at the end of Dr Jonathan’s first term.

    Apart from Dr Okonjo-Iweala’s overused World Bank orthodoxies, most of them jaded and misplaced, the Ministry of Petroleum has become both a law unto itself and a defiant cesspit of regulatory opaqueness, while pipelines protection has been callously and recklessly ceded to warlords and militants. In combination, these people and factors ensure that the national economy is not amenable to planning, laws and logic. Nothing will change should Dr Jonathan be re-elected. The president is himself tired, even overwhelmed, and his Finance minister absolutely fagged out after nearly six years in the economic saddle propounding much of the same panaceas day in and day out. Every patriot must be alarmed that a hint of their return is even being contemplated.

  • Pawns and powerbrokers

    Pawns and powerbrokers

    The Nigerian hegemonic blocs are on the move again. Since they wear the mask of power and bear the powerful aura of some ancient masks, hegemonic power blocs move in a mysterious and confounding manner. What you sight is not what you actually see and what they say is not what you hear. Only the masters know what the masters are thinking. It is a duel of giants.

    Nevertheless, some significant movements of chips have occurred on the chessboard. There are many reasons for the oddity of the knight’s move, says a famous Russian literary theorist and grandmaster. Some of these may be mere ruses or tactical feints before a major engagement; their import may lie in what they seek to hide rather than what they try to show. However that may be, there are major declarations of intent which cannot but fascinate the astute game watcher as the year 2015 finally unfolds.

    Despite the aroma of great expectations, there is something eerily subdued about this new year and its opening gambit. There is a strange calm abroad, despite the unnerving feeling that we have come to the end of an era. The French, with their fastidious elegance, call it “fin de siecle “. It is more like a watershed, when the world as we have known it has ceased to make sense; when change, imminent and momentous, has become the overriding imperative for continuous survival. The noise of collapse, of the crumbling of the old order, is very much with us.

    Yet the mood of the nation is sober, very sober and in fact sombre. Whether this is a historic decoy, some mass dissembling before an apocalyptic explosion, is hard to say. There is no premature celebration, no feckless jubilation or wild triumphalism. Like a man who has the full measure of a tough adversary, the Nigerian multitude are not about to start celebrating until the actual day of reckoning itself. And with each passing day, the hour inches closer.

    Having long been pawns on the political chessboard of powerbrokers, the Nigerian multitude have learnt the bitter lesson of premature celebration. In the past, they as the electorate would vote only for the selectorate to select who will rule. Sometimes they would vote only for the selectorate to dismiss the whole thing as an exercise in nullity and futility. At some other points, the selectorate might ask them to choose between being kingmakers who must nominate a king chosen for them or canon fodders. With the rumours of an interim government thick in the air, the selectorate is not about to give up its sovereignty.

    This is where and how something may eventually give in the next few weeks. The sullen mood of the nation is leavened by the optimism of the inevitability of change and buoyed by faith in the momentum for a drastic reorganization of the principles and paradigm of governance sweeping across the length and breadth of the nation. Nobody has been known to argue with an earthquake.

    There is no equivalent in our history for what is about to take place: the imminent dethronement of the status quo managed and supervised by political society. Yet it is either Nigeria manages this transfer of power between two parties of the establishment or the nation should forget about democracy and even its own future feasibility. It is this possibility of the peaceful transfer of power between state parties that has brought peace and stability to hitherto fragile West African states such as Ivory Coast, Benin Republic, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Senegal. All those who stood in the way of the transition perished in the process.

    It is a shame, a shock as well as a tribute to the fact that the nation is structurally rigged against philosophical rationality and political modernity that Nigeria has not been able to achieve this transfer of power at the federal level since independence.  The First and Second Republics perished as a result of the intractable crises arising from disputes over elections. The Third Republic perished on the altar of state annulment of free and fair presidential elections. In the Fourth Republic, presidential elections have been routinely rigged while opposition parties remain disorganized, demoralized and completely disconnected from the people.

    But this time around, bar one or two enclaves, the nation is astir in a way it has never been before. Loose wires seem to have connected at last. Irrespective of creed, region or religion, there is a pan-Nigerian awareness surging through the country that we cannot continue to be ruled like a Stone Age society. All over the country, people are saying enough is enough. Having been a toddler trundling on the floor like a monster child for fifty four years, it is time Nigeria got up or go under.

    Despite the later romanticization, the 1993 uprising against military rule was not a nation-wide phenomenon but originally a localized revolt pioneered and powered by a section of the country with advanced political consciousness. It was a blessed historical coincidence that it also happened to be the very locality that produced the winner of the election.

    The 1999 election was very much an army arrangement for disengagement. Subsequent presidential elections are internal personnel redistribution within the ruling party that have elicited a tame and trifling response from the populace apart from the brief inferno that the north witnessed in 2011.

    The 2011 coalition of forces that swept Jonathan to power was truly historic and momentous. It bore all the imprimatur of cruel political engineering as well as exemplary power pragmatism. In a bid to consolidate his hold on power as well as to pay back both his northern accomplices who had turned their back while Abacha sent him to jail and the Yoruba Afenifere tendency that he treated with a mixture of fear and contempt, Obasanjo engineered a fracturing and fragmentation of the two hegemonic blocs.

    The dominant rump of the northern hegemonic bloc which then comprised of serving governors and legislators, after some bear hugs from the EFCC, quietly lined up behind Goodluck Jonathan. The emergent dominant political tendency in the west also appeared to have done the same thing. With the South East and his native South South already in tow, it can be seen in retrospect that widespread irregularities notwithstanding, the outcome of the elections could not have been different.

    Four years down the line, the coalition that brought Jonathan into his own has all but disintegrated, with the falconer no longer hearkening to the falconer. Jonathan’s hitherto massive support base has fizzled out with only the South East and his native South South holding out for him. But even in these former strongholds, there is widespread question mark over his competence and fitness to rule.

    The old northern hegemonic bloc appears to have recovered its poise and passion for power. The entire north had become a hotbed of discontent and anti-Jonathan exertions. Unlike four years ago. Jonathan is unable to rein in the northern power cabal who now seem to have a full measure of their man.

    To do that he would have needed the skills and wherewithal of the minatory farmer from Otta. But Obasanjo has since become one of Jonathan’s most ferocious critics, cold-bloodedly stripping Jonathan and his government of legitimacy like a hound baiting a bear to death. Yet this was the same Obasanjo who famously and publicly serenaded Jonathan to contest for the presidency only four years ago.

    In retrospect, perhaps Jonathan’s most signal political failure was his inability to prevent his own party from fracturing and factionalizing. It was this that allowed the dissident and disaffected members to team up with General Buhari’s old CPC and the emergent dominant political tendency from the South West: the ACN. All of a sudden, and without any warning whatsoever, the opposition began to threaten the ruling party’s supremacy in both houses.

    It was a historic reapproachment, a political truce between two bitterly opposed political tendencies and a coalition of seeming contraries the like of which has not been seen in the post-colonial history of the nation. But in politics as well as the life of a nation, all that is solid often melts into thin air. In critical times, there is sometimes a play of political irony across rigid binary lines. There are indeed no permanent fiends in politics.

    The coalition has opened up new vistas of possibilities in the political annals of Nigeria. The attempt by the ruling party to miscue the new alliance into choosing a presidential flag bearer other than the fiery and implacable General Mohammadu Buhari only shows the historic desperation creeping into the federal camp. Thanks to the historic realignment of political forces, the possibility of change has begun to stare Nigerians in the face in a way that would have been impossible four years earlier given the fractious and factionalized nature of opposition politics in Nigeria.

    There are hegemonic power blocs and there are hegemonic power blocs. While some wilt and fade in a matter of years, others seem to last forever due to their sheer resilience and ability to adapt to changing times and conditions. While some triumph over unrelenting political adversities by keeping their focus on the pursuit of power, others stumble and fold up as the pursuit of power is gradually blunted by the pursuit of food.

    Alimentary logic of instant and immediate satiation replaces the elementary logic of endurance in the pursuit of higher and nobler goals.  As it ever so happens in other theatres of human endeavour, the capacity for delayed gratification and wary generosity of spirit are the key to success in building hegemonic blocs.

    Even by the notoriously unreliable and faithless standards of the Nigerian traditional political class five weeks to the election is too short a time to procure a new hegemonic bloc. The one that was about to coalesce around Goodluck Jonathan as the first truly modern and modernizing Nigerian president has disintegrated in an inferno of greed,  corruption, appalling lack of sensitivity and ethnic sabre-rattling. Jonathan must be ruing the day he allowed thugs, aging delinquents and ravenous sharks to gain ascendancy in his administration.

    But not to worry. There is magic and mystery in the air. Five weeks to election all is eerily quiet on the Nigerian front. There is no issue-related presidential rally in sight, not to talk of a presidential debate in the offing. Meanwhile, there are rumours of an interim government flying all over the places. From specially designated outlets, there are calls for the postponement of the elections, just as there are hints of looming apocalyptic violence. In what appears to be a nail on the coffin of the electoral fortunes of the Nigerian populace, INEC has openly pronounced its inability to conduct run-off elections. It doesn’t get more eerily unsettling.

    All of which must suggest another looming confrontation between the Nigerian electorate and the Nigerian selectorate; between the powerbrokers and the long-suffering pawns of power and peons of powerlessness. As the nation-wide clamour for change reaches its crescendo, it is going to be a nasty confrontation indeed.

    The more things change, the more they tend to remain the same. Twenty one years after June 12, 1993, another duel in the same guise is shaping up; a looming clash between free and fair elections and the sovereignty of the selectorate . But things do not always remain the same. In 1993, while the wish of the electorate triumphed, the will of the military oligarchy prevailed.

    Yet in the current conjuncture, there are three significant departures from 1993. First, the military are no longer directly in power. Second, there is no overt American pressure on Goodluck Jonathan to do the needful. Thirdly, the potent civil society groups which acted as a modulating influence on the state and as a mediating factor in preventing a direct confrontation between power and the people have largely disappeared from the Nigerian landscape in a hail of controversy about their probity.

    Unfortunately, there is no moral traction that can dissuade anybody bent on sabotaging the electoral will of the people. The meek and the weak are not blessed in this particular case, and neither will they inhabit the citadel of power. The only language power understands is countervailing power and the balance of terror. It is how these forces shape up in the next few weeks that will determine the fate of Nigeria.

  • A powerful minister and his enforcers

    A powerful minister and his enforcers

    Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan, is a very powerful man. He has at his beck and call hundreds of thousands of men enlisted in the Nigeria Police. An indeterminate number of officers belonging to the shadowy Department of State Security (DSS) are equally available to do his bidding at the snap of a finger.

    In a country where the authorities over the years have not been squeamish about deploying armed agents of state to disconcert the opposition and claim ‘victory’ at the polls, the concentration of such power in the hands a brazen partisan is potentially disastrous for our young democracy.

    When he proudly announced at a book launch last week that he had given orders to the Inspector-General of Police, Suleiman Abba and the DSS to arrest anyone who makes ‘inflammatory statements’ ahead of the 2015 elections, the gravity and implications of his utterances were clearly lost on him.

    At the same event he made the incendiary claim that All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari and former President Olusegun Obasanjo were working to foist an interim government on Nigeria.

    Explaining his order for a crackdown, Adesiyan said: “Many of those in the APC are disgruntled PDP members who are no longer relevant and because they could not have their way, they have started to heat up the polity. They have said they will form a parallel government if they lose.”

    This same statement had riled President Goodluck Jonathan who at one of his campaign stops at an Abuja church wondered how a politician, and a Christian to boot, would dare utter such a statement.

    Everyone knows that the ‘Christian’ politician being referred to by Jonathan is his bête noire and Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi. I have no doubt that but for his constitutional restraint of immunity, the Aso Villa would have moved against the outspoken governor.

    Amaechi, never one to sidestep a controversy, infuriated his foes afresh with his remarks insisting that soldiers recently court-martialed and convicted for mutiny had the right to protest being asked to fight Boko Haram insurgents without being adequately armed. Since those comments were made all heel has broken loose with the army and DSS piling in the governor for saying things they consider an invitation for soldiers to be mutinous.

    It might help to remind readers here that the same comments the governor made have been repeated by the likes of Major General Ishola Williams (retd) who went on to state that soldiers protesting suicidal orders was not unheard off. The remarks of the former Chief of Defence Operations, Planning and Training, at Defence Headquarters have been largely ignored, but Ameachi’s have triggered near ballistic reactions given his political profile.

    In the light of what Adesiyan has revealed the response of the DSS is a follow-up to instructions from above. But beyond that it is especially sinister.

    The organisations’s Deputy Director of Public Relations, Marilyn Ogar, warned political office holders not to ‘hide under the privileges of their offices to perpetrate and encourage the commission of acts inimical to the general interest of this nation.” This, she said pregnantly, was the “final warning.”

    I am struck by the finality of Ogar’s threat. Assuming Amaechi or some other public officer protected by law from prosecution were to say something which the agencies consider inciting, would they violate that individual’s constitutional immunity?

    In today’s Nigeria nothing is impossible. If a squadron of policemen could seal off the National Assembly and humiliate its members by teargassing their chambers without consequences, then there is no low our security forces will not plumb in their desire to please whoever holds power at a given time.

    I am all for peace and security. But democracy is also about free speech and freedom to choose who will lead a country or community. It is about exercising such freedoms without some non-judicial arbiter standing as a middle man to determine what constitutes appropriate or inflammatory comment, or determining what is constitutional or not.

    It was that sort of effrontery that prompted the Inspector-General of Police to declare that Aminu Tambuwal was no longer Speaker of the House of Representatives because he decamped from APC to PDP. In an outrageous power grab that remains as yet unpunished, he assumed the role of the courts to add to his powers as an enforcer.

    Since that event, legislators have been crossing the carpet at the National and state assembly levels at a dizzying rate. Embarrassingly, the great enforcer of the Nigerian constitution has suddenly gone absent without leave.

    Whatever section of Nigeria’s statutes the security services are depending on to clamp down on people for their comments, they would find that such provisions  don’t define what constitutes ‘inflammatory comment.’

    When does a comment become inciting? What is the empirical gauge for judging its flammability other than the jaundiced assessment of the likes of Adesiyan and Abba?

    With barely six weeks to go before the general elections, I dare say any strong criticism of the incumbent and his embattled administration would rank as ‘inflammatory comment’ in the books of the Police Minister and his enforcers.

    On the day Adesiyan was making his arrest order public, he was also accusing two former Nigerian Heads of State of planning treasonable acts without providing any shred of evidence. In my book that ranks as a grade one ‘inflammatory comment.’ But who’s going arrest the arresters?

    Is all this anxiety over “inflammatory comments” not an indication how fragile the Nigerian federation has become? Instead of looking for vulnerable scapegoats should we not be pointing the finger at failed leadership that has brought us to this pass?

    If there’s a grave danger facing our democracy today, it isn’t from the occasionally heated statements made by excitable politicians. It is emanating more from the pedestrian interpretation of what constitutes threat to national interest by Nigeria’s security agencies.

    Politics is activity that excites passions and roils emotions. It involves contest: we should expect the temperature to rise during any election cycle. All the lazy and clichéd talk about ‘heating up the polity’ arise from ignorantly trying to turn politics into Sunday Mass: it is not! It is passionate business that generates heat, insults and sometimes, unfortunately, violence. Live with it.

    This is the understanding that seems to elude our all-powerful minister and the enforcers that are ever so gung-ho about arresting people for speaking their minds. The police, DSS and others should stop inserting themselves in the middle of the political mudfight. By presenting themselves as interested partisans they erode the integrity of their institutions and lose respect in the eyes of the people.

    That is why aside the economy and insurgency, one of the most pressing challenges confronting the national leadership that will emerge this February is reforming our security services to make them relevant to the needs of an emerging democracy in the 21st century. What we have now are services whose mindset is stuck in the military era of the 70s and 80s.

    That reform must, however, be National Assembly-led because the abuse of the security agencies has always been a crime perpetrated by the executive branch. If APC wins the Presidency don’t be surprised if next day security agencies start threatening PDP members who make critical comments about the new powers-that-be. The system is that backward and servile.

    We need a police and DSS that are truly engaged with protecting the people from violent criminals and insurgents. We don’t need a bunch of armed men and women who are confused about what their roles are and have lapsed into some sort of ‘thought people’ dragooned to screen what we say in the heat of the moment. Don’t turn Nigeria into North Korea please!

    But more importantly we need a decentralised police and intelligence agencies structure that does not leave such powerful institutions in the hands of small-minded individuals with anything but a democratic temper and mindset.

  • After the deluge: beyond corruption and regional realignment of forces in a post-PDP Nigeria

    After the deluge: beyond corruption and regional realignment of forces in a post-PDP Nigeria

    It is not hyperbolic to speak of a post-PDP Nigeria in mythic terms. To speak of our country as a land readying itself for cleansing and restitution after a great deluge that lasted for a long time and laid nearly everything to waste is to deploy the powers of language and symbolic logic to try to capture what Nigeria has gone through in the last sixteen years. This order of discourse moves us beyond the dry, conceptualist universe of political economy in which a country like Nigeria under the rule of the PDP is described as a failing state.

    With the discourse of symbolic and mythic logic, we are much closer to the human and psychic realities of the nation and the masses of its peoples in a period of great travail. For there are parts of the country in which, quite literally, it is as if one is in a physical terrain that looks very much like a land washed over by a great flood, a massive tsunami. Parts of the Niger Delta and the North come to mind here: those parts of the Niger Delta in which farmlands, fishing waters and the entire physical environment have been blighted by oil spills that are never cleaned up; and those parts of the North that have been seized by the Boko Haram jihadist insurgency. But these are only the worst expressions of realities that confront us everywhere in the country in which great suffering and insecurity have become the daily experience of millions of our peoples and the majority of the young that see only bleak futures ahead of them. At any rate, beyond the relatively more benign biblical parable of seven fat years coming after seven lean years, I see a post-PDP Nigeria as a land gearing up for a massive cleanup after a political tsunami, a moral and spiritual valley of death. The only caveat to add here is the necessity of anchoring the symbolic discourse of floods and tsunamis in concrete observations concerning the probable course of capitalist democracy in a post-PDP Nigeria.

    It is of course possible, though highly improbable, that the PDP will continue to rule after the general elections of 2015. In that case, I hasten to observe that my reflections in this piece will not have proved futile and delusory; rather, they would have turned out to be prescient in the sense that, by a reverse logic, the deluge will continue, the moral and psychic morass will not come to an end. This is because PDP cannot, and will never reform from within; it will never clean up the Augean stables of filth and rot it has created. If it rigs its way into perpetuation of its misrule, it will be emboldened to raise impunity to new levels and we and the whole world will be astonished by new forms of monumental corruption, waste and mismanagement of our natural and human resources. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala once said that she would be quite satisfied if she was able to reduce the scale of looting and squandermania in PDP’s Nigeria by 4%; in a post-2015 general elections era that maintains the PDP in power at the centre, that 4% will dip into the minus percentile range, that is if it has not already done so. The worst will never reach its bottom in PDP’s misrule for what we confront in it is an abyss, a bottomless cesspit. Dear readers, dear compatriots, do not withhold yourselves from dreaming about and working for a post-PDP, post-deluge Nigeria especially as it so happens that there are solid grounds on which to base projections of the PDP’s complete rout in next month’s elections, these being the roles that corruption and a new realignment of forces among our political elites, our ruling class will play in the presidential elections. Let me explain.

    Barring the stealing of victory by the PDP through massive rigging and a will to use very costly repressive violence to contain mass resistance to rigging, the 2015 general elections will be fought primarily around the twin axes of corruption and the electoral alliance of mainstream politicians of the “core” North” and the Southwest. Corruption of course exists in all the ruling class political parties and is to be found at varying levels in virtually all the state and local governments of the country. As almost every commentator on corruption in Nigeria has stated, the scale of corruption in Nigeria is nothing short of systemic: it is the noxious glue that holds everything together among godfathers and clients among our political elites; and it is the nefarious bond that binds the rulers to the ruled with regard to the unofficial and manipulative redistribution of resources between the few thousands of the haves and the millions of the have-nots. Given these factors, the question arises as to how and why corruption has come to loom much larger in the coming February 2015 general elections than it had ever done in all previous elections since the return to formal, civilian democracy in 1999.

    The answer to this question is simple and unambiguous: under the Jonathan presidency, more specifically under the Jonathan administration’s endgame to the PDP’s era of arrant misrule, corruption has far exceeded the systemic to become extra- or para- systemic; it no longer has rhyme or reason, method in madness, or logic in illogic. Trillions of naira and tens of billions of dollars vanish or are unaccounted for, even as government workers and contractors are unpaid; state governors go cap in hand to Abuja and return with near empty bowls, month after month. The looting frenzy has reached dizzying heights of impunity and this is why corruption is the first and perhaps main issue of the coming elections. Additionally, this is why short of massive and violent rigging, Jonathan and the PDP will lose as they more than deserve to do. Most Nigerians are focused on corruption as the main issue of the elections, especially given the myths, legends and facts concerning Buhari’s alleged distaste for corruption The U.S. and the European Union will in particular be keenly watching the outcome of the elections and the main reason for this is also the scale, the extra- and para-systemic nature of corruption in the Jonathan presidency and its offshoots around the country.

    And of course the other big issue in the election is what is being described as the return of power or, more specifically the presidency, to the North, this in an alliance that brings large segments of mainstream political forces of the “core” North with those of the Southwest. This is an infinitely more complex issue than the unifying and idealizing “ABJ” (Anyone But Jonathan) battle against corruption.  In the postindependence political history of the country, this is not the first time that this sort of alliance has happened, the NPC-NNDP alliance of the 1960s being the first time that a joining of forces between the North and the Southwest came to power in the center in our country. But this time around, the alliance will not be a simple repetition of history, a mere regrouping of similar ideological and programmatic tendencies. In the earlier case, the two parties did not completely merge, for the simple reason that neither the NPC nor the NNDP wanted to lose its regional identity in a single party in which regionalism was or could be completely subsumed into a national party whose regional currents took second place to a nation-wide plurality. Now the allied forces have merged into a single party of diverse and even contradictory ideological and policy orientations and as a consequence, we are about to enter into an almost totally unprecedented space of ruling class politics in our country.

    The parameters for apprehending this new space are already being set around very familiar oversimplifying ideas and perspectives. Perhaps by far the most common among these is the view that the new President will be Northern and Muslim while the Vice President will be Southern and Christian. This will certainly be the dominant view in the Western press and even within the ruling circles in Europe and the United States. And to be very candid about this, the thoughts, the emotions and the aspirations of a very large segment of the Nigerian electorate are also driven by this particular perspective. But like the question of corruption, this subject of a balancing act between a Moslem North and a Christian South begs the question of how a post-PDP Nigerian ruling class will be different in policy, programmes and issues from the era of the PDP and the long military interregnums before it. This is quite apart from the fact that the North is neither wholly Moslem nor the South wholly Christian.

    Perhaps the most important consideration of all is the fact that the APC being unlike any other merger of disparate ideological forces we have ever seen in the political history of this country, we are almost certainly on the cusp of a new order of political discourse in a post-PDP Nigeria. In this, our beginning observation is that the present coalition within the party is centre-right, with the proviso that a center-left formation is slumbering underneath the present dominant formation. There are some among those reading this piece who will think that these reflections are premature or perhaps even meaningless in the context of present-day ruling class politics in our country. These caveats, these objections will be our starting point in next week’s concluding essay in the series as we focus on what sort of capitalism a post-PDP ruling class party will institute as a replacement for the present vacuum that combines a looting frenzy with a thoughtless, fundamentalist and unregulated capitalism driven by a latter-day primitive accumulation of the basest and most unregenerate kind that the world has ever known.

     

    Biodun Jeyifo

    bjeyifo@fas.harvard.edu

  • It will be most unlike PDP not to rig the 2015 election

    It will be most unlike PDP not to rig the 2015 election

    Why would Fayemi lose? he asked, and the soldier simply told him that even if Ekiti people voted from then till the next morning, PDP had already won, having pre-programmed the ballot papers

    General Buhari and Professor Osinbajo are not by any means men without fault. But they are our men for the job in the presidency at this point of our national history. The Buhari-Osinbajo presidency will not be an accidental or a reluctant presidency. These are two individuals with convictions of great possibilities for the nation. These are two men of courage: courage to follow through with great ideas; courage to take sides with the poor and the vulnerable; courage to do the right thing in the interest of the nation. The Buhari-Osinbajo presidency might be the beginning of our true democratic experience -the era where government is beholden to the people’ -Gbemi Jaiyebo, New York.

    The more popular Buhari gets, and he is catching on like wild fire, the more desperate to rig, PDP gets. Chief Olu Falae has not stopped bemoaning his 1999 loss to Obasanjo, claiming the election was rigged.  Many were killed in 2003 as thugs ensured that election results were declared for the PDP. It was worst in the Southwest where, anxious to outdo Awo, Obasanjo completely outmaneuvered the AD governors, except in Lagos. Suffice for the 2007 election to say that the late President Yar’ Adua was scandalised enough to publicly confess that he was rigged into office. Unfortunately, such  sense of shame has since departed the PDP; otherwise  they would not be  grandstanding, celebrating a non-existent transparency in the 2011 elections during which fake ballot papers, printed at an Abuja press named in General Buhari’s pleadings at the Presidential Election Tribunal, were flying  all around.  Ditto Ogun and Akwa Ibom, two PDP states. In more recent elections, Governor Adams Oshiomhole was close to tears describing to press men the shameless rigging and brigandage witnessed in an election in the Local Government Area of a top PDP chieftain in Edo State. Readers of this column are by now familiar with my take on the ’16:0 defeat’ of a sitting governor by now Governor Ayo Fayose of the PDP in Ekiti.

    Circumstances surrounding the Ekiti election which Professor Wole Soyinka aptly described as a mystery, and the call by Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, for a Memorandum of Undertaking which would see Jonathan and Buhari order/direct their supporters to accept the result of the presidential election, willy nilly, irrespective of the integrity of the process, in order to avoid any post electoral crisis, are the very reasons for this article at a time we should still be singing ‘Silent night’.

    Musliu Obanikoro, former, as well as, incoming State Minister for Defence, has been gloating and boasting concerning the 2015 election. The gentleman has been fouling the air around since he lost the governorship primary election to Mr Jimi Agbaje, believed by party leaders to have better electoral value. But having now successfully got back his ministerial position, which many believe was the reason for all the noise, he has headed to press interviews in celebration.  In the interview, published in the Punch of Sunday, 28 December, 2015, Obanikoro declared assuredly:

    “Ogunlewe said in his interview with Sunday Punch that he doesn’t know whether the PDP will win in the Southwest. He said it is not yet time for him to talk about that. But it is time for me to talk about it. I can tell you that we are going to win. The president is going to win BIG; WE ARE GOING TO CLEAR THE SOUTHWEST. YOU CAN MARK TODAY’S DATE AND QUOTE ME’.   Obanikoro may be everything Bode George and Seye called him but, they cannot contest the fact that this man knows much more than they do about PDP’s behind the scene escapades.  For instance, while it is doubtful if any of George or Seye knows anything about how the Ekiti election was won and lost, Obanikoro can beat his chest and claim he was one of  the high priests of that  strange election.  It is for that reason that, like Wike in Rivers State, Obanikoro almost fought to the death to be the PDP candidate in Lagos State, in the sure knowledge that he will win BIG. For Obanikoro to successfully controvert any of these, he must explain to Nigerians what exactly he was doing in Ekiti during the election. This is somebody who is neither from Ekiti nor is he an official of INEC and he cannot claim to have been performing any official duties since the military high command had earlier warned him against politicising the military.  While Jonathan’s goons were stopping and  detaining governors right on the highway to Ado-Ekiti, and stopping planes from landing anywhere near Ekiti, Obanikoro not only flew into Akure with an evil luggage which was later ferried into Ekiti in a bullion van as was  copiously reported by newspapers, he joined other non-Ekiti PDP busy bodies, among them a self-confessed Igbo serial  election rigger, all of who then worked the magic of  21 June, 2014,  that night when the police declared a totally unnecessary curfew. At this point, I must narrate a story told me by the very person to whom it happened. When one of the APC leaders detained before the election asked why they were being detained, he was told by the soldier guarding them that it was because they were the ones who could rouse people to riot after Fayemi had lost. Why would Fayemi lose? he asked, and the soldier simply told him that even if Ekiti people voted from then till  the next morning, PDP had  already won, having pre-programmed the ballot papers. He almost collapsed. The gentleman is alive and kicking.

    Only a fool would claim not to know that Obanikoro and Adesiyan were deliberately planted ahead of the elections as junior ministers in the armour-bearing ministries of Defence and Police Affairs for the sole purpose of intimidating and pacifying Yoruba land.  Obanikoro’s boasts, quoted above,  are very reminiscent of Fayose’s boasts before the Ekiti election. Fayose told everybody at his campaigns stops that he had already won. He even said he would defeat Fayemi in his ward which he, however, failed to do. But so certain of victory was he that he said publicly that Fayemi should not bother painting the new state house because he doesn’t know his preferred colours.  The Obanikoro boasts, also  a replica of  that of the president who  has already sent ambassadors to their heads of state as to  how seamless the 2015 election would be, are no phony boasts at all. Ekiti has more than shown that these people get serious when the business at hand concerns rigging and I just hope APC is not sleeping. INEC must be compelled to conduct the election strictly according to the provisions of the Electoral Law which, among other things, prescribes ONLY INDELIBLE INK. Rogue elements within INEC rigged the Ekiti election for PDP simply by supplying VANISHING INK in place of indelible ink.  I have once written on these pages  that when you see a seemingly powerful governor, as in Akwa Ibom, or a presidency- supported candidate like Wike , insisting on a particular candidate, or being the candidate himself, to the total chagrin of majority of  party members, many of who are therefore defecting to other parties, and  the PDP  is unconcerned, it is because they are not  depending  on legitimate votes for victory.

    The purpose of this article is to ask Nigerians to plead with the PDP – being the party with the history and the material capacity to rig on an industrial scale, to spare Nigeria the consequences of a probable post-election crisis. Unfortunately for the Southwest, most of those who traditionally perform this function – a check on governments – have already been sucked in by, and at, the National Conference and now love Jonathan more than an Asari Dokubo with books getting written and published in under two weeks and with Obasanjo getting serially thrashed by an amalgam of deliberately selected Yoruba National conferees. I cannot wonder enough as to where they will disappear to when Asari Dokubo levels their territory as he has promised, and, by the way, we are yet to hear these acclaimed Yoruba leaders comment on that threat by the President’s Ijaw compatriot.  Luckily for Nigeria, there are still enough men of integrity to do the needful.

    I wish my readers a happy and wonderful New Year.

  • And as we ring in the New Year…

    I rather think that Nigeria is still the way it is because people are praying too much and doing too little to effect good governance wherever they find themselves

    I give you very hearty New Year greetings!

    I read a story in some book not long ago about the pastor of a village church, somewhere in England, who had accosted one of his supposed parishioners, known to be an avid farmer, and accused him of not coming to church. The parishioner indifferently replied that he would be seen in the church as soon as it was known that crop pests could be killed by praying rather than spraying.

    I was a little amused when I read the news report about how the president of our country, while speaking at a church service, credited the peace experienced over the recent holidays across the land to the prayers of the Nigerian people and the work of the government. Wonderful, I thought; wondering if the president really put it in that order. If he did, then he must be wanting to say something to the congregation, and by extension, the entire Nigerian praying public. I thought he might really be saying that prayers could not only kill slugs and pests but could sling enough anti-terror deterrents to discourage the activities of boko haram devotees, armed robbers, kidnappers, ritualists, and other sundry silent terrorists.

    Now, I think that’s saying something. Here we have been all this while, thinking that successful governance was all about maximally employing all state apparatuses to ensure peace at all times. This means engaging the army, police, guards and all armed and unarmed forces to do their job to keep the peace. In the process, they may, of course, catapult a few pounds of warning bullets at the foes. Somewhere in the background, the unengaged but serious Nigerian populace can stay on its knees and deftly direct some well-aimed and well-armed prayers at the good heavens as support. Then we would have peace. Now, it seems our eyes are being opened, according to that story, to the possibility that those prayers may very well have been our main armoury. What then does that make of our state forces: supporting actors?

    Don’t get me wrong. I know for a fact that there is no Nigerian who embarks on a journey now without first of all invoking all the heavenly powers to ban all destructive forces and loose all protective ones. Many there are who examine and re-examine all the possible cowries combinations at home to be sure the interpretation on their prospective journey is correct; not to talk of the ones who first visit their secret shrines backwards and front-wards before setting out, all just to travel on Nigerian roads. The reason is simple: it is in order to ensure that boko haram devotees, armed robbers, kidnappers, ritualists and other sundry silent terrorists do not have their own prayers answered so that you can return from your journey. Oh yes, I understand that even armed robbers pray for a successful outing before they set out…

    Truly, if you understand something of the Nigerian situation, you will be tempted to do all three before you set off on a journey, sit down to a meal, enter your car to drive to work, take a walk on the road, talk over the fence with your neighbour, see your friend off after a good visit… It seems life in Nigeria has become so dangerous that we require prayers at every turn. The other day, I heard a story about how a man was visited by his friend and he decided to see him off in the evening twilight time zone. That was the last his family saw of him and all enquiries led to nothing. His friend insisted that the man turned back after he got into a taxi. Anyways, he was found weeks later in a place very far from home, barely alive. Obviously, you also need prayers to visit your friend and when you are visited by your friend. So, I know all about prayers; you really should hear me pray.

    However, in the operatives of governance, the people do not want to be told that their prayers are holding the state afloat. When that happens, it is a quarter to disaster, because it admits to the helplessness of the state. Then, the people probably would not need elected officials: they would elect to pray all day and all night; and angels would come down and take over the reins of government.

    Rather, the people want to be told that the state has deployed this number of arsenals against the foes, this number of secret operatives to perform this action, this number of paid road troopers to perform that action. The people want a demonstration that the government is truly on top of the situation, not just figuratively so or because they say so. Then, the people would support the state with their prayers.

    As it is, there is no doubt that Nigeria is a praying nation. Oh yes, Nigeria prays, sir! Yet, I do not believe there is any nation of people on earth who are more corrupt, wicked, unserious, insensitive or uncaring than Nigerians. Just recently, I read of an army officer who was denied his entitlements for fourteen years by the army. Disabled by illness, he cried out and he was promptly upbraided by the army for going to the press. Presumably, they also pray.

    So, let’s talk about the efficacy or otherwise of some action or the other please and let’s have less of prayers. It is only in Nigeria that people use prayers to keep others awake all through the night in the name of night vigil! Only Nigerians head to praying grounds at seven a.m. before going to the jobs where they are expected to resume at half-past seven. But, let’s not go into all that again. I rather think that actually, Nigeria is still the way it is because people are praying too much and doing too little to effect good governance wherever they find themselves.

    As we ring in the New Year, let us reflect deeply. I am not throwing out the usefulness of prayers. I pray. It is, however, more important to first execute an expected right action in order to ensure others do not suffer as a result of our inaction or wrong action. It is more important to always practice putting ourselves in the position of the receivers of our actions. Above all, it is important to always remember that every action always comes back or boomerangs, good or bad. There is no exception to that rule.

    As you go through the year, I wish you everything I wish myself. I wish you more vibrancy than that of the famed tortoise whose instincts for self preservation made him one of the most interesting characters in fiction. Indeed, his vibrancy was such that if you hemmed your throat and mumbled ‘Story, Story’ to a group of children, you would immediately be asked, ‘Is it about Tortoise?’ He is the only four-legged animal known to have somehow contrived to fly in the sky (what has his not having feathers got to do with it?), survived the sulphur of pit latrines for over ten years, made a king bow to him, and what else not.

    I also wish you a sharper instinct than last year’s so that you’ll be able to step nimbly out of the way of the new, over-speeding, baby oil sheiks; or come up with the right and most appropriate repartee in every situation, again like the tortoise. Then, you will not be like me who only comes up with the wittiest thing to say after the situation has passed. Above all, I wish you the ability to carry out 365+ acts of kindness this year. Your life may depend on it.

  • How bleak is 2015?

    A reader of my last column titled If 2015 comes was apparently not pleased with Bishop David Oyedepo’s declaration of the New Year as that of Heaven on Earth which was cited in the piece. He was more worried that, according to him, I believed the Bishop’s ‘fairy tale’.

    “I live in the Niger Delta and there is mass arms build-up. Same for north. Your Bishop tells you a fairy tale and a columnist like you falls for it. This means you don’t even read your paper,” the unnamed reader stated in one of his four text messages on the column.

    “Did you not read from your paper Professor Akinyemi’s warning? It was splashed in all the major tabloids last Monday. Time to grow up, Lekan. People of goodwill are urging restraint and your Bishop is luring you to complacency,” he added.

    I concede to the faceless reader his right of reply to my column. I also understand his concern about an optimistic prophecy in the face of myriads of challenges facing the country which as rightly noted by the reader include the plummeting naira, high unemployment rate, violence and the continued abduction of Chibok girls.

    Who would not be worried that the situation in the country has degenerated to a state of hopelessness on many critical issues? The country seems to be faced with a bleak future with the uncertainty of the outcome of the general elections scheduled to hold in February and its aftermath.

    Notwithstanding, Bishop Oyedepo and other clerics who have been optimistic about the future of the country this year are entitled to their views which are spiritually inspired. The fact that Professor Akinyemi and some others have either been warning against or predicting post election violence is not enough to dismiss clerics as fairly tale bearers.

    We don’t all have to agree with their prophesies but those who want to believe them for whatever reason should be free to do so. The clerics are not unaware of the dire straits we have found ourselves as a country and have at various times been urging political office holders and politicians  at all levels to address the various issues requiring urgent attention.

    I am aware that religious leaders across the divide have been campaigning that their members become more politically active by getting registered to vote the right persons for political office.

    The political climate of the country may be gloomy like it has been in some past election years, but just as the clerics predicted then, we survived and this year may not be different. The charged political atmosphere in the country is understandable given the stiff opposition by the All Progressives Congress (APC) but it is not enough not to be hopeful about the future of the country.

    No matter the outcome of particularly the presidential election of February 14, governance in the country has to change for Nigerians to really get the long expected dividends of democracy and improvement in the standard of living.

    If the APC succeeds in sending President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration packing, it will have to prove that it is a better option capable of bringing the expected change. If for whatever reason the PDP manages to retain office at the federal level, it will have to respond to the loud cry for better governance.