Category: Tatalo Alamu

  • Okon avoids accidental discharge

    And still on the confrontation between modernity and tradition. Marshal Goering, the notorious NAZI sybarite, once famously observed that whenever he heard of culture, he usually reached for his gun. In a multi-national nation, one man’s culture is another man’s horror. For some time now, Okon has been making some denigrating remarks about the Yoruba tradition and its people.

    “Oga, how come all dem Yoruba people who dey dance kpalongo  round dem Buhari man dem come vamoose patapata? Abi agaracha don return home?”, the mad boy demanded from snooper.

    “Who told you bloody fool that?” snooper snarled.

    “Ha oga na hunger make dem Yoruba drummer waka go Sabo. But dis time he be like if say dem mala tira come scatter Yoruba juju”, the mad boy crowed before snooper chased him away.

    As the rumoured death of the great Yoruba monarch gained traction, snooper devised a plot to give the mad boy his terminal comeuppance.

    “Okon, you will go to my aunt in Ife and collect the herb known as ewe omugo”, snooper ordered with unsmiling sternness. The crazy boy eyed snooper with a mischief and genial malice.

    “Ha oga no be dat one dem they call accidental discharge?” Okon snorted with street savvy.

    “And what is accidental discharge about collecting herbs?” snooper demanded.

    “Ha oga accidental discharge na when police kill person and come say na accident. He get time like dis one when dem Oba don kaput and dem Yoruba people dey hunt other people, dem dey kill dem, dem dey cook dem and dem come dey whack dem. Oga, Okon dey for discharge but him no dey for accident”, the mad boy sneered and quickly disappeared to our chagrin.

  • Re: The Army that lost its way

    Re: The Army that lost its way

    Last week ‘Snooping Around with Tatalo Alamu’ set the cat among the pigeons with the piece ‘The Army that lost its way.’ Today, some readers weigh in on the arguments in that article and manage to trigger an intellectual back and forth of their own

    From Goldoun

    Your assertion that “the Obasanjo post-military rule reform which saw to the prompt retirement of politically exposed officers was a brilliant exercise in de-militarization” was putting truth on its head. I daresay there is no brilliance in Obasanjo’s lopsided “demilitarization”. It was just a cunning move to prevent any meaningful challenge to his motives. Remember OPC happened along in the first hundred days of the tragedy that was O. O.’s misrule. More heinous crimes followed. We witnessed unprecedented and wide spread massacres on the Plateau and in Taraba as a result of heightened distrust among hitherto peaceful neighbors in the Middle Belt.

    One wonders at the much hyped “nationalist instincts” of O. O. especially in the face of the serial rape of all known and respected democratic tenets and of our common patrimony. As to the claim that O. O. “did not appoint a member of his own ethnic stock as army commander and neither did he unduly disrupt the chain of command”, I assume one needs look no farther than O. O.’s feeling of insecurity: he wouldn’t want a contender in his domain, would he? His tussle with the Jagaban was a fight for supremacy among the Yoruba.

    1. O. did not need to “disrupt the chain of command” in the military because he has already wrecked the institution as he has the nation.

    You succeeded in resurrecting the ghost of Mamman Vatsa. May Allah rest him, the usual bogey, while you white washed O. O.

     

    From Adejint

    Sir, today we have to take a contrarian view to certain points, which you explicated upon in this magnum opus on the military. First is the notion that “the military is the ultimate distillate of nation essence”

    If contemporary and comparative African history in general and Nigerian history in particular has taught us anything, it is that the military has the most fissiparous tendencies, inimical to what you call national essence, and to which we add coherent strategic ideological road map, to national redemption, salvation and prosperity. Being conservative by nature, they are always atavistic and obscurantist in their approach to national redemption and development. After all they as an institution acted as the catalyst that spurred us on to the road to national perdition, starting from precipitation of the civil war, cannibalizing a military institution Nigerian taxpayers spent an enormous amount of resources to build, through unending, atrocious and diabolical Machiavellian infantile coup-plotting decimating generations of the officer class.

    Comparatively, countries without a standing army or semi-standing army are usually prosperous, stable and free. The first example that comes to mind is Costa Rica in Central America. Since 1949, the national army had been abolished, and in Panama the national army had been abolished since 1990. These two countries are the most prosperous in Central America. Coming to Africa, Mauritius has no standing army, yet it is one of the most prosperous in Africa. More than three hundred years ago, Morocco contracted its military obligations to France.  When Germany and Japan used to have a formidable standing army, they constituted themselves into terrors against human civilization. But today after they had been reduced to having a semi-standing army, they have become oases of peace, freedom and prosperity. Arguing in this fashion does not signify in any way that we are advocating that the Nigerian military be disbanded; that is not an option in any ramification. Nigeria is a regional power so we must at all times have a formidable, professional, disciplined standing army. It is a geopolitical imperative that we always do so.

     

    From Mohammed Eibo

    Nigerian Army used to be the bedrock of discipline but diffusion in it has incapacitated it long time ago. Certain officers are not promoted for no reason but political expediency. Time to change is now or never. Will the new COAS right the wrongs?

    Truly the army has some discipline problems but little did we know that the politics is more dangerous than we can think of. Fine officers like U. M. Ibrahim are not promoted thereby killing the morale of performing officers. What should we expect the expectation from Gen. Tukur Buratai? The usual stories? Nigerian Army should brace up and live up to the expectation.

     

    From Wisdom ok

    When PMB retired 25 generals and appointed service chiefs on tribal lines he was deliberately dividing the military hierarchy on ethnicity. This is a departure from the professional army ethos. PMB is dividing and setting the country on gun powder.

     

    From Obinnna77

    Saint OBJ did precious little to repair the deliberate post-Orkar coup rot that brought the Nigerian Army to this pass. Let’s call a spade by its name, if we can bring ourselves to. And, let’s say knowledge of the Niger-arean military is not one of your strengths. The same ex -Executive Outcomes private contractors you cavil against, were the architects of victory in Sierria Leone and Liberia. Let’s do away with this deluded military chauvinism and use what works. If it takes mercenaries, so be it.

     

    From Adejint

    Fellow compatriot, Obinnna77, it behooves you not to bring a pedestrian pen knife to an intellectual gun fight. It will also behooves you to refrain from desecrating the hallowed memory of our valiant patriotic soldiers and journalists, who pay the supreme sacrifice for the glory of our fatherland and for securing a free, peaceful and prosperous future for their fellow African brothers and sisters and their children.

    Though they may be unsung heroes in our fatherland, but nevertheless they are heroes in brother African countries they are instrumental in helping to liberate – contrary to your denigrating and ill-informed opinion that Executive Outcomes, greedy bands of mercenaries they are, are architects of victory in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

    For your education, Executive Outcomes were never in the theater of war in Liberia, they were never there, and in Sierra Leone, they were there for only one year – from March 1995 to March 1996.

    And for you to aver that a regional power with almost 180 million vibrant population, because it is currently going through a rough patch must contract its military obligations and duty to a bunch of bloody blood sucking racist mercenaries, is the height of acute geopolitical myopia.

    As someone I assumed is very versed in defunct Republic of Biafra history you must be familiar with the names of the following repulsive individuals: Colonel Steiner; Major Taffy; Captain Paddy; Captain Armand; Captain Alec; Marc Goosens.

    They are all notorious mercenary commanders that were hired to fight for the defunct Republic of Biafra. What good came out of their services?

    If all the above is not adequate to convince you of the error of your ways then contemplate the following words from Niccolo Machiavelli on mercenaries.

    “Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy”

     

    From IskaCountryman to ADEJINT 

    And you think you won the Biafran War without mercenaries…

     

    From ADEJINT to IskaCountryman   

    If we did, please proffer the proof with photos and the names of the mercenaries, and please educate us as to circumstances that warranted this action, sans British cooperation in terms of arms supply which the Yankees refused to supply. We are ignorant of the facts, please educate us.

     

    From IskaCountryman to ADEJINT  

    Ask your new friend 77 about Egyptian pilots… I know he has a story to tell…

     

    From ADEJINT to IskaCountryman   

    Last time we checked, Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Egyptian Wahabbi state and Wahabbi military don’t do mercenaries, they do suicide and carpet bombings. And the period in question was the 1967 Six-Day war during which Egyptian Air Force with its fighter jets were annihilated right in their hangers and on the tarmac. Following that was the debacle of 1973 Yom Kippur War and during all this epoch there was no credible Biafran Air force or fighter jets. So we wonder which plane or fighter jets the Egyptian pilots executed their nefarious mercenary contracts – maybe on a U.F.O. Chief Iska we are yearning to be educated, oblige us.

     

    From IskaCountryman to ADEJINT    

    Son… let’s leave the argument…

     

    From ADEJINT to IskaCountryman 

    Baba, I concur with your proposition. End of debate.

  • The Army that lost its way

    The Army that lost its way

    The first part of this treatise was written exactly twenty two years ago after the military annulled the freest and fairest presidential in the nation’s history. In that first installment, this columnist cautioned the military that its historic and professional expertise lay in a coup against the state which is usually a brisk and lightning affair ending in a matter of hours rather than a coup against political society which is often a messy and protracted affair ending in humiliation and disgrace. Five tragic years after, the military withdrew to the barracks in humiliation and disgrace.

    With the clinical dismissal of the ranking echelons of the Nigerian Armed Forces this week, retired General Mohammadu Buhari has completed perhaps the most difficult aspect of regime transition from entrenched incumbency to nascent but determined opposition. Nigerians are yet to accept the scary extent of the institutional damage inflicted on the nation by the departed Jonathan administration, but It is a measure of how low our military has fallen in public esteem that nobody of note protested or regretted the summary retirement.

    If anything, there were a lot of people who felt that the retirement came a bit late. Such was the wide revulsion with and the contempt for the departed military chieftains that the public openly rejoiced at what they considered a belated departure.  Nobody wept for the military kingpins. They had clearly overstayed their welcome.

    This column is not interested in excoriating individual officers over what is a deep systemic, structural and institutional failure. The army, in the last instance, is as good as the society which throws it up and of which it is only an organic manifestation. Like the nation itself, the army has occasionally flirted with suicide. At the last moment when darkness is all but visible, Nigeria’s legendary luck always ensures that there is a ray of light and a window of opportunity.

    Only once did the luck fail, in the epic events leading to the civil war when the army completely fractured along ethnic, religious and regional lines. It is a measure of the unresolved National Question that ever since, the nation itself has survived in a precarious luminal existence with its old demons relentlessly stalking.

    A deeper organic crisis is usually in progress whenever all the major institutions of the state are simultaneously and concurrently in crisis. In such circumstances and in more cohesive nations, the military as the most national and nationalist institution, acts as the principal bulwark of the realm. But in a situation where the military becomes the butt of rude and derisive jokes and are held in deep contempt by the populace, a major national disaster is in the offing. Often, it is as a result of failure in a national project.

    This time around, the army truly scraped the bottom of the barrel. Having failed in its principal duty and responsibility of defending the territorial integrity of the nation, the army resorted to abusing itself. Unprecedented court-martials, desertions on an industrial scale, accusations of betrayals, ethnic and religious perfidy became the order of the day. The military began desecrating the memory and record of its own most revered and iconic commanders. When you insult yourself, you should not be surprised when others join in.

    In a haunting sense, this is a coming to pass of the scary premonition and prophetic admonition of General Mamman Gulu Vatsa.  As his treason trial unfolded, the Nupe war hero, combining the insight of a professional soldier with the intuition of a notable poet, cautioned his colleagues against insulting themselves. Fastening a truly unnerving gaze on the then Brigadier Yohanna Kure, the deputy chairman of the General Valentine Ndiomu led military tribunal, Vatsa calmly delivered: “When you insult yourself others will join in”.

    Thirty years after, Vatsa’s ringing words have come to pass. Just as it became a willing tool in the hands of military politicians thirty years earlier, this time around, the army became a sorry tool in the hands of professional politicians. Overriding the wish and supreme will of the National Council of state which included at least four of its own former commanders in chief, it summarily imposed a six week postponement of national elections in order to give an undue and unfair advantage to the incumbent. When this was not enough, it tried its best to sabotage the outcome of already held elections.

    On the road to institutional ruination which its old forebears trod at their grave peril, the military began questioning and eventually attempting to compromise the educational qualifications of its own former commander in chief. As if these grave infractions were not enough, the military High Command, in an epic and unparalleled breach of army protocol, dismissed General Obasanjo in an unsigned statement as a barely literate fellow given to wild and unwarranted tantrums, or words to that effect.

    Meanwhile as they were still at this, unprecedented sleaze, high wire corruption, opulent living and conspicuous consumption which would have made the redoubtable Ottoman emperors squirm in modesty and rectitude took deep institutional roots among the ranking military Brahmins. Widespread mutinies were reported. A serving general owes his life to taking refuge in an armoured car.

    The same army which had globally distinguished itself in several peace missions abroad became a pathetic shadow of its former self. Even the modest gains recorded in the war against the Boko Haram insurgents turned out to be due to the efforts of South African mercenaries surreptitiously recruited. In an unprecedented national humiliation, the Chadian army openly accused the Nigerian army of rank cowardice. For fear of endangering its expensively trained military personnel or having its sacred data compromised, the American military quietly withdrew diplomatically citing operational difficulties.

    How did the Nigerian military get itself into this trough of despair and national humiliation? This is the question President Buhari must find a compelling answer and then solution. The military is the ultimate distillate of the national essence . No nation can be stable when its military is unstable. Yet each time the Nigerian military has betrayed its sacred duty and obligation to the nation, it has always come off worse than the nation itself.

    The fact is that some armies are simply not made for certain things. For example, the American military can pulverize any nation at short notice, but it has shown consistently that it is not good at nation-building and rebuilding. Americans don’t do nations. This is because America was not conceived or founded as an imperial colonizing nation. The only time America ever successfully did nation-rebuilding was on the fertile soil of Japanese cohesive and organic nationhood.

    But by the same token, armies founded on the principles of the defence of the nation against external aggression are never good at internal aggression against their own people. To carry out a successful coup, you must be ready to fire on your own people. When the crack Soviet army attempted a coup for the first time in its history against Mikhail Gorbachev, it was so inept and amateurish that it became the butt of jokes from security experts across the globe.

    The imperial Russian army was not founded as an army of internal occupation but as a defender of the Russian people. Such was its comical bungling on this occasion that it even allowed a half-drunk Boris Yeltsin to mount one of its own tanks to rail against the coup. When one of the coup plotters, a war veteran and most decorated national hero, was eventually traced to his bleak quarters, the four-star general had already hung himself by his own bootstraps. His only earthly possessions were his boots and medals.

    With its roots in colonial predation and its origins as an instrument of imperial pacification of the natives, the army often behaves like a son whose father has eaten sour grapes. Yet despite this ancestral curse, the Nigerian military has produced some exceptional officers who have been a source of pride to their uniform and their nation. After each misdemeanor, the military has also attempted to reform and redeem itself.

    The problem with past military reforms is that they neither went deep enough, nor did they attempt to address the institutional roots of the problems. For example, the Obasanjo  post-military rule reform  which saw to the prompt retirement of politically exposed officers was a brilliant exercise in de-militarization.

    But because it did not ask the right questions or probe in the right direction, it merely secured presidential incumbency rather than institutionalize military neutrality in political struggles. Once you are out of power, you are out of the power loop. A terror machine is an equal opportunity terrorist which does not recognize original ownership.

    Obasanjo who once regarded himself as the father of the nation would have been miffed by the incorrigible disrespect of the sons he left behind in the military. For the Owu-born military avatar, it was indeed a miraculous reprieve from a second demystification. As he himself would later put it, it was like standing in front of a moving train.

    Perhaps, then, those who insist that the problem of the nation and its errant military is a reflection of the structural misconfiguration of the colonial contraption called Nigeria have a major point. Right from independence, every ascendant group in power has tried to barricade itself in the presidency, sealing off the state and creating a political logjam which can only be prised open through a combination of cunning, blackmail and outright force.

    Obasanjo also did the same thing and was in fact scheming to rule the nation in perpetuity. But his nationalist instincts prevented a relapse into the regionalization and ethnicization of the army. Throughout his eight years as a civilian president he did not appoint a member of his own ethnic stock as army commander and neither did he unduly disrupt the chain of command.

    In the case of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, they could hardly help themselves. Under their watch, the old demons of ethnicity and regionality which have haunted the military since 1966 reared their abysmal heads once again. In the dying days of the Yar’Adua presidency, a major apocalypse loomed in military formations throughout the country. Only Nigeria’s legendary luck sustained it through the crisis of succession.

    But it is with the Jonathan presidency that we can see what havoc an embattled and insecure minority president can wreak on the major institutions of a multi-national country. Jonathan simply took the judiciary, the legislature, the party formations and the military to the cleaners.

    Despite his pan-Nigerian mandate, Jonathan, in an attempt to perpetuate his rule and in what many observers saw as a return to the Abacha years, simply privatized the military in an open and flagrant disregard for seniority and distinction.  After decades of chafing under majority oppressive rule, if the country does not want a minority president, it can as well go to blazes.

    Having bent the stick of state in the other direction by acting in political extremis, Jonathan has left Buhari with the short end of the wrong stick. But going by the quality of the new service chiefs and his NSA, President Buhari has shown that he is probing in the right direction even if tentatively. It is instructive to note that both the new Chief of Defence Staff, General Gabriel Abayomi Olonishakin and the National Security Adviser, retired Major General Munguno, are former Commandants of TRADOC based in Minna.

    In the military, TRADOC is regarded as the ultimate dead-end of the professionally up-ended; a warehouse for the upright but uproarious career officer and military intellectual. Its most iconic commandant till date is another military refusenik, the illustrious General Ishola Williams who famously exchanged his uniform for civvies on the very day General Sanni Abacha came to power.

    Snooper personally knew the new Defence Chief from his Ife days. He combines the rugged bravery of the exceptional career officer with the forthrightness and integrity of his hardy Ekiti forbears. Munguno, a Kings College product like Ishola Williams, is also known to have had a running battle with his erstwhile military superiors before being quietly eased out.

    It should be clear by now that a reform of the military institution cannot be complete without a reform of the structural debility which has hobbled the nation. Whenever a nation is stranded in the jungle of aborted nationhood, the military must also miss its way. It is an iron law of societal evolution.

    President Buhari has his work cut out for him. Perhaps it is time to look beyond the structure of the military to the very structure of the nation of which the military is but an organic actuality. The military should now take to heart, the words of Mamman Vatsa, one of its most outstanding products. When you insult yourself, others will join in.

  • ……and from Akogun Tola Adeniyi, aka “Irunmole”

    Principalities and people’s power in Nigeria…… the problem with Tatalo Alamu is that he cannot be read in a hurry. For him, journalism is not history in a hurry but history for the elegant mind of the intellectual bent. Once again thank you for the illumination and nourishment. The Irunmole.

  • Now, even Okon ducks Hurricane Sai Baba !!

    How about this for the real gale that Nigerians have been waiting for? As the Buhari tempest sweeps all before it with the implacable fury of the ethically affronted, even a naughty recalcitrant like Okon has been conducting himself with sober propriety. Of late, the crazy one has been turning in all receipts of market transactions with diligence and painstaking promptitude. When he was pressed for the reason, the mad boy retorted with a crooked grin.

    “Oga, even dem mad dog sabi fire. You wan make dem Baba mala come nab man? Even dem Dasuki man dem come surround him house. Orubebe dey cry and dem yeye Colonel from Kabba wey him head no correct at all, him dey scream make dem no kaput am this time. Dem Lamido dem put dat one for Guje with him Shakara”.

    “Okon, I thought you applied for the Green Eagles job?” snooper pressed advantage.

    “Ha oga dat one he get as he be. I no wan make dem nab man for over under-age”.

    “And what is over under-age?” snooper demanded.

    “Dat one na when man under-age too much, like dem grandfather who dey play for under-seventeen”.

    “I see, how come the egg tastes different these days?” snooper asked with mild tremor.

    “Oga na alligator egg I been dey cook before before”, the mad boy crowed.

    “May god punish you and your mother”, snooper screamed and charged at the crook.

  • On principalities  and public principles

    On principalities and public principles

    Principalities, being primates of power production and consumption, endanger public principles because public principles are a danger to them. Democracy, being the principal public principle by which modern man has chosen to order and govern his affairs, is a principal enemy of principalities.  Democracy remains the most implacable enemy of principalities because it replaces the rule of principalities with the reign of public principles. But what are principalities?

    Principalities are like principals and wardens of politics and public institutes. But comparing principals with principalities is like comparing conditions to conditionalities. Conditionalities are also conditions, but they are much more than that. Conditionalities are structured and organized conditions which give a higher efficiency and abstract rigour to their operative order.

    Going by the same logic, principalities are structured and highly organized principals who endure much longer and whose domination of their environment is such that they can only be prised apart by force or higher cunning or a combination of both. Such is the power of principalities and the way it has been burnt into human consciousness that long after the material conditions which gave rise to them have been superseded, they continue to exert tremendous pressure on human imagination and institutional memory.

    Long after they had arrived in the new world, away from tyrannical and feudal Europe where ancient principalities abounded, the Americans gave considerable thought to the power of principalities in the exercise of their new found freedom. They hedged their bet about the efficacy of democracy which may well degenerate to mob rule in certain circumstances. Like the ancient Romans, they put in place an authoritarian and patrician senate to act as a countervailing check to the rowdily plebeian House teeming with casual riffraff. In addition, the American president is elected by an electoral college rather than a simple democratic majority.

    Although they may be vestigial remains of an ancient world of kingdoms, fiefdoms and empires, powerful principalities do sometimes return to haunt the modern world and to remind it of unfinished business. The twentieth century had its fair share of these sacred monsters. There is no record of modern civilization which is not at the same time a record of superhuman struggles against principalities.

    Every human society has to negotiate its terms of release from principalities, either through dodgy  or sometimes tense cooptation (Britain, Spain, Holland, Norway, Denmark etc), through the introduction of a monarchical presidency(France) or an all-powerful imperial presidency(America). In many other parts of the world such as the Middle East, Far East, Asia and Latin America, authoritarian traditional monarchies, dynastic despotism and the cruel oxymoron of democratic autocracies subsist.

    In Africa where the ancient, the colonial and the post-colonial modes of power productions jostle in bitter contention and with several mutually incompatible people and societies thrown into the historic melee, powerful principalities have been engaged in a perpetual political warfare with the residual, the prevailing and the emergent platforms of human emancipation at very great cost to the nascent nations. Sometimes in the course of the struggle, the state or the nation disappears altogether. It is the Nigerian chapter of this centennial struggle that we must now address.

  • Principalities and people’s power in Nigeria

    Over since the colonial inception of Nigeria, the constituent nationalities have waged a war of emancipation against the state and its principalities of power. This perpetual political warfare against an alien and alienating state is occasionally collective but more often the efforts of individual nationalities resisting an oppressive power and its principalities. It has shaped and framed the political contours and topography of modern Nigeria and has turned the nation into a permanent war camp irrespective of the principality in power.

    Democracy became a ruse; a pious fraud in which the people and the power to determine their democratic destiny were summarily abolished. More often than not, the electorate tried to elect and the selectorate selected. On one occasion when the table threatened to turn against the run of play, less than thirty Nigerians summarily annulled the electoral will of fourteen million other Nigerians. Talk of the power of principalities.

    On some other occasions, principalities in power simply imposed their preferred principalities even as they organized expensive electoral charades and chicaneries to formalize the epic joke. But as we have noted in the first part of this treatise, the problems with principalities of power is that they never know when the balance of power has shifted against them. If they are imbued with this historical awareness, they would not have been principalities in the first instance. Emperors exist to defend empires even when the empire has virtually collapsed.

    The last elections in Nigeria, particularly the presidential slugfest, is a classic confirmation of the great observation that history often moves forward by lurching sideways. Away from the watchful eyes of the principalities of power, single drops of the water of resistance often become a mighty ocean of retribution and restitution sweeping all before it.

    But contradictions and ironies abound. As history teaches us, the people in themselves cannot successfully conclude democratic revolutions without a fraction of the ruling class who have consciously or unconsciously committed political suicide. In other words, you cannot subdue principalities without the help of principalities. This is the iron paradox of historical advancement which lies at the roots of threatened and aborted democratic revolutions.

    In March and April, driven to the edge of frustration and despair by poverty, misery and biblical suffering, the Nigerian multitude rose as one, irrespective of tribe, creed, region and religion, to reaffirm their humanity and to send off the evil principalities of power that have held the nation hostage for sixteen sorry years and by extension since independence. It was the very first time in the history of the nation that a ruling conglomeration has been forcibly retired and sent packing. It sent reverberations round the world that Nigeria has finally arrived.

    Leading the pack against the principalities is a retired general who is himself a lapsed principality and military autocrat with fanatical following among the northern masses who had gradually moved away from the shrine of northern protector to the altar of national emancipator. Thrice the stubborn and implacably self-willed general tried to breach the Maginot Wall of oppression and thrice he was beaten back. On the last occasion, he broke down and publicly wept for the nation.

    It is important to situate things and put them in a proper context so that Nigerians can grasp what has just happened to the country. It is also important to explode certain myths so that we may know where we are headed from here.  There are those who maintain that this is not the first time the west has been in alliance with the north. As proof, they cite the old Akintola/ Sardauna working arrangement in which the NNDP was fused with the NPC to form the NNA.

    The truth of the matter was that the NNDP and NPC alliance was not a marriage of equals but the incorporation of the weaker faction of the Yoruba political class into the dominant northern feudal machinery for the purposes of protection and reassurance. With the west very much on fire, Akintola felt very much unsafe from the rampaging Yoruba mob without the federal might.

    It was clear that throughout this period, the late premier felt very much at home with his status as a junior partner in the federal arrangement. When he was not wittily excoriating his former political associates turned bitter enemies, Akintola was content with relentless Igbo-baiting. As documented by Chief Awolowo himself, Akintola held the Igbo political elite in seething contempt. What Awo did not add was that it was over what Akintola, rightly or wrongly, considered to be a lack of a sense of fairness or fair play on their part.

    The fusion of ACN, CPC, ANPP and others to birth the APC was the first time in Nigerian history that the dominant political tendency in the west will go into alliance with the core north. This would have been impossible during the Awo era. The Ikenne titan viewed northern feudalism with towering rage and implacable contempt which betray a cultural rigidity which was also evident in the old northern power masters.

    Perhaps this was how the colonial barons, in their divide and rule proficiency wanted things. Yet one of the unintended but beneficial trade off of protracted military rule is that it has forcibly brought sections of the nation’s political elite together in a way and manner that tend to thaw old cultural and political animosities. We may yet have to thank the military for this paradoxical bequeathal.

    As it is evident in the robust self-assurance and sheer bravura of its leaders from various sections of the country, the APC is a marriage of equal partners with a visionary conception of a new national project. The old north may have the edge in sheer numbers, but Buhari’s previous attempts show that in the battle against principalities, the organizational discipline, the maximum mobilization, the technocratic savvy and the political modernity of sophisticated message infiltration brought to bear on this by the South West political elite may count for more. Fanatical mobs vote but they do not protect their votes, waiting instead for the call out against the electoral infidels.

    It should be noted that for a long time after the Abiola tragedy and the forcible imposition of General Obasanjo on the nation, the old west went back to its default mode of insular and isolationist tendency dreaming of regional resurgence in a multi-national nation brimming with mutually hindering and inhibiting political conspiracies. But as long as it has not developed the military will to impose its political wish on the nation, it cannot opt out just like that.

    How history often plays poker with political developments! In July 1966, the victorious northern military putchists were shouting “Araba!”, before they were reportedly cautioned by western diplomats about the sheer stupidity of attempting to secede after they had just captured an entire country. Ever since, arms and their managers assumed a centrality in determining who rules or who prevails in the power game in Nigeria.

    But almost fifty years after, it has taken a rebellious scion of the north and former golden boy of the establishment to return full electoral sovereignty to the Nigerian people in a nation-defining presidential election that pitched him against the first minority president of the nation. When thus contextualized, it  can be seen that the alliance between the dominant tendency in the South West and the core North cannot be envisioned as a conspiracy of domination but an unfurling pan-Nigerian elite project gradually incorporating all the progressive and forwarding looking segments of the nation in a bid to rescue a traumatized polity.

    This is why what happened in the senate on June 9th is as unfortunate as it is tragic. It brings back the politics and polity of principalities and insinuates through the backdoor what Nigerians have just thrown out through the front door. It brings back the demons of ethnicity, of religious divisions and opens up old cultural and regional animosities. No matter how much anybody hates Tinubu’s political guts, you cannot blame a man if his politics are in canny alignment with the prevalent mood of his country.

    Contrary to the insinuations of ethnic carrion feeders, there is nothing special or unique about the South West political elite who spearheaded this alliance that has given Nigeria a fresh chance. But there are moments in the life of a nation when a particular segment of the elite are placed in a position by history and culture to think through the national contradictions and come forward with practical solutions. This has nothing to do with any unique gifts.

    As traditionalists looking back at the political evolution of their own society, the emergent dominant political tendency in the South West can view the problem of underdevelopment and feudalism in the north with sympathetic insights and hindsight.  But as forward-looking modernists, they can also align with the economic dynamism and republican industriousness of their eastern brothers as long as it doesn’t tip over into the carnage capitalism which breeds anomie and lack of compassion for others. Unregulated mercantilism often brings out the worst in human beings.

    But there is a price to pay for everything, even for being at the vanguard of change. For the Yoruba establishment, this in-between and go-between and the distrust it provokes from all sides may well turn out a formula or recipe for revolutionary political suicide. While we are still at the game, the federal establishment has poached two vital Yoruba states and others may well be threatened in the current combustible configuration, which all but removes the old plank of regionalism as a fallback position.

    Going forward, for there is no going backward in the situation we have found ourselves, the dominant political tendency in the west must find all the political savvy and calm comportment it can muster and avoid the political narcissism which grates badly on others without compromising its core ideals. Sacrifice does not equate to surrender. As for President Mohammadu Buhari, he must avoid being captured by ethnic irredentists who view everything from the narrow primordial prism of ethnic supremacy.

    We are not out of the wood yet. Many are already deeply disillusioned by the turn of events. But it is morning yet on creation day. As Buhari’s ascetic personal example and reforms kick in, those who profited from the old order and who cut across ethnic formations will fight back.  In a society in the throes of traumatic transition, the struggle against principalities is not a tea party. When not prosecuted with vigour and alertness it may open the door for other lurking principalities as we have seen in the battle for the senate. Having shed the toga of a military general, Buhari must now look for the civilian fatigues of a political generalissimo.

  • On principles and principalities (1)

    On principles and principalities (1)

    The problem with principalities of power is that they hold political principles in utter contempt, particularly in “post” colonial polities where there are no stated ideals apart from the pursuit of private pleasures. In the political maelstrom of dark desires, they often achieve what Nietzsche has called the transvaluation of values, a state of mind in which values held dear by the society are given a short shrift. Honour, humility, piety and compassion for others become an irritating and vexatious nuisance.

    The problem with principles is that without the political power to drive them, they become helpless victims and pawns of power play. The political graveyard is filled with the bones of many principled people. The prophets of selfless power must always be armed or they will find themselves in the cemetery of unsung patriots. But no matter how long it takes, the precept of public principles will eventually curtail the power of principalities.

    There is an ongoing titanic battle for the soul of Nigeria. It did not end with the last election. As history teaches us, it may end in the mutual ruination of the contending classes. Principalities never know when the balance of power has shifted against them. If they have ever do, they never become principalities in the first instance. All those who thought immediate change would come with the outcome of the last election must now be shaking their head in disbelief and anguish.

    But not so fast.  Mere elections do not guarantee change. Change is not expresso coffee, particularly in a society deeply enmeshed in millennial rot. Indeed as this column never tires of pleading, elections may actually open the floodgate to centrifugal forces besieging a structurally disfigured polity. Like a deep and festering wound that has to be opened up before it can be cauterized against more fatal infections, elections also hurt.

    To the extent that the last election blasted open the frozen dialectic of Nigeria’s post-independence history, it was a sine qua non for change. The Jonathan administration had reached the end of its historic tether and political possibilities. Except for the leeches and roaches benefitting from the misery and agony of the Nigerian people, it was a historic cul de sac with nowhere to go but hell. Those who are now singing alleluia at the teething problems of the Buhari regime are only being deeply mischievous or playing ostrich with their culpability in historic crime against the nation.

    The last election and the historic regime change that accompanied it are the iron precondition for radical changes in the Nigerian polity. But democratic elections, particularly in countries split down the line, must not be misconstrued for the agency of automatic revolutionary change. They merely create the enabling and creative condition for change. Agents of reaction and storm troopers of the ancien regime still abound even where they seem to have exchanged the garment of retrogression with the garb of progressive hay making.

    Electoral victory does not automatically translate to a total vanquishing of the old forces of disorder. To start with, the victorious party itself is still a medley and hotchpotch of conflicting and conflating tendencies.  They are many who fled the old ruling party but with their soul still mortgaged to its tyrannical thralldom.  There are a few who still carry the family genes of carpetbaggers and political rustlers. And there are many diehards of the old order, particularly ethnic revanchists hobbled by civil war trauma, permanently unleashed to profit from national disorder.

    It is the contradictions let loose by these forces that led to the coup against the wishes of electoral Nigeria on the floor of the senate in the early hours of June 9th. There are times to keep a strategic silence, and such times are these. This column has a historic feel of how these forces will play out. But this is a time to play the wily deaf and dumb.

    This morning, in response to the inquiry of many Nigerians, this column brings you an earlier piece which accurately predicted the run of play in an earlier drama in which the principal combatant in the battle of the senate trumped and trounced the forces of his own father. Welcome to Shakespearean Nigeria and the Elizabethan tragedy of fathers and ambitious sons.

     

  • King Lear comes to Agbaji

    King Lear comes to Agbaji

    A great political drama is afoot in Kwara State. Dear readers, let us leave bombers, bunglers and the ailing Nigerian state alone this week for a trip to the land of Dadakuada music. In Ilorin, a fascinating and superbly choreographed royalist soap is winging its way to a fateful climax. It is absolutely riveting, a combination of Dallas and Dynasty with the old King Lear thrown in.

    The stage is set. The firecrackers are crackling to the resounding beat of war drums in the eerie background. The sanmoris, the jamas, the onitijus, the onigogos and the fanatical hordes of Oke Suna—the quarters of the faithful—are watching with keen interest. These foot soldiers with their core of itinerant Muslim preachers, politicised clerics, jaded jihadists and other spiritual wannabes have always been the real power behind the throne since the Islamic coup of Malam Alimi , and they make the former fiefdom of Afonja such a fascinating sociological case history.

    But don’t forget that Napoleon once famously observed that a throne is only a bench covered with damask. The end of a political dynasty or its metamorphosis is here. There are echoes of fierce ambition, of filial impiety and political perfidy. There are hints of a fey and slightly unhinged king Lear about to preside over the dissolution of his own political empire.

    The main protagonists are very well known. In one corner of the royal ring prowls the aging political pugilist and much lionised avatar of Kwara politics, Abubakar Olusola Saraki, an outstanding surgeon of politics if ever there was one. A man of superhuman energy and vitality combined with extraordinary political dexterity, Saraki has grafted and sutured together a durable political dynasty which has endured all stress and storms. Like all thoroughbred feudal monarchs, Saraki does not take hostages. Behind his jovial and avuncular comportment lies steely glint and an iron will of implacable severity.

    In the other corner, Saraki’s son and heir now unapparent, Abubakar Olubukola, crouches with tigrish fortitude and in fine feline fettle, too. Bukola’s imperious airs of feudal entitlement and his occasionally fatuous and ill-judged pronouncements on national matters may not endear him to many, but there is little doubt that he has proved himself a formidable political dead ringer of his famous father. After eight years of being in charge of Kwara state, the medical doctor on permanent sabbatical has cobbled together a canny alliance which has sent his father and benefactor packing from the royal castle and now threatens his political supremacy.

    As far as political intrigues go, this is the father of all biological coups and the ultimate designer baby of political patricide. Thrown into the ring with them as hostage and hostess is the favoured daughter and latest pretender to the throne, Olugbemisola Saraki. A serving senator of the Federal Republic, the fetching and delectable Gbemisola is no Benazir Bhutto, the redoubtable daughter of the East, who had to face off her vagabond and wayward brothers to grab the ultimate laurel. It is more like a sea lioness being thrown into pool of crazed sharks.

    But complexities and contradictions do abound. A democratic throne is a violent oxymoron. Modern Nigeria itself is a land of rowdy contradictions and at this point in time there is no point in ruffling feathers about the peculiar sociological and cultural milieu of Kwara state. Suffice it to note for now that baring a violent revolution in Nigeria which abolishes its last vestiges of feudalism, it is virtually impossible to win back in peace time what you lost on the pre-colonial warfront.

    Had William Shakespeare lived around this time in post-colonial Nigeria, his extraordinarily fecund imagination would have found much grist to its ever churning mill. But even the great bard of Stratford-Upon Avon would have been forced to accommodate new pressing and urgent realities. King Lear has come to Agbaji, but the old royal baggage remains in Elizabethan England.

    In King Lear, we see a sick, tired and worn monarch in a fit of senile grandeur trying to divest himself of his royal patrimony. In other words, a king is presiding over the dissolution of his own empire among his beloved daughters. His condition is as simple as it is simple-minded: protestations of love and devotion from the daughters. While the first two, Regan and Gonerill, faithfully and opportunistically began singing sonnets of love, the third, Cordelia, promptly demurred claiming that there is indeed no art to find the mind’s construction on the face. The father promptly disinherits her inviting a calamity of unimaginable magnitude.

    Had King Lear been a modern day monarch, he would probably have been diagnosed as manifesting the onset of senile dementia clinically known as Alzheimer’s Disease. He would have been sectioned or eased from the throne. As usual with Shakespeare, while he was rhapsodizing about the nobility and stoic lack of guile of an older world represented by the old king, he was also foreshadowing the arrival of a more complex and complicated society mediated by the Industrial Revolution and its urban pathologies. The new man is epitomized by Edmund with his ubiquitous savvy and Machiavellian audacity of courage.

    As he took his case against his own son to the crowd of faithful in his Ilorin GRA redoubt with the cogency and the clinical clarity of an absconding medico, there was no sign of senile dementia in the older Saraki. Although now betraying signs of the depredations and corrugations of age, Abubakar Olusola Saraki was as nimble-footed as he was quick-witted. His beloved son has been misled by idiots, a furious democratic monarch charged. His logic is simple and compelling: if you subscribe to a royalist code of succession and benefited immensely from it, you cannot change the code in midstream. By toying with this sacred and divine order the son has joined the former henchmen of his father in the gallery of infamy and political treachery.

    This is all well good, but there is something about Saraki senior which reminds one of the medieval rulers in the epoch of classical feudalism. Like King Louis of France who famously retorted that “l’etat c’est moi!!”, Saraki elder is proclaiming: “Kwara state is me!!!.” This monarchical veto and autocratic fiat is incompatible with a democratic dispensation. Like a medieval ruler, Olusola Saraki attributes divine wisdom and absolute infallibility to his choices which jars with the idea of the citizen as a discrete sovereign in his own right.

    It is noteworthy that the camp of the son has been quite muted in its response and diplomatically coy about taking the battle frontally to the old man’s quarters. With the reins and levers of power firmly in  his hands, Bukola appears content with running rings round his old man before moving for the kill with a little help from the federal might. A plebeian intruder who was rude to the founding father was quickly slapped down and sent to political Siberia.

    Having prevailed over all his former associates turned mortal adversaries such as Adamu Attah, Shaba Lafiagi and lately Mohammed Lawal, it will amount to an epic irony if the older Saraki were to succumb to his own son in a royal battle of wits and will. That would be divine justice of punitively poetic proportions.

    Having seen the inside of government and governance for eight years, what Bukola Saraki seems to be saying is that there is time for everything. Even for a famous First Family, the patriarch’s wisdom cannot approximate to the collective wisdom of the people. The retort will be that the son was a political nobody before his father enthroned him and he is in absolutely no position to query his benefactor except he is succumbing to dark and sinister sibling rivalry and filial ingratitude masquerading as public order and morality.

    In all this, the vaster multitude are nothing but bemused spectators in a play of giants. This has always been the case with this northernmost outpost of the old Yoruba Empire. Have cavalry and Islamic charms and will travel. Afonja, its old Yoruba ruler, a courageous but feckless generalissimo with remote maternal roots to the Oyo royal lineage, was the last coup maker of empire. He demanded and eventually got the suicide of the penultimate king, Awole, after accusing the latter of plotting to eliminate him.

    After Afonja himself was sent down in a palace coup with a hundred arrows embedded in his body making him stand in stiffened erection like a crusader’s effigy, a succession of Fulani emirs were treated with absolute scorn and contempt by the warlords. One of them, Moma, was assassinated in 1895. In the case of the gifted but half-crazed Balogun Karara, he routinely marched on the capital from his Offa redoubt installing and removing emirs at will until the colonial intervention put an end to the road show.

    This is the suzerainty that Olusola Saraki inherited by default. Ilorin has not always been the political hunting ground of the Sarakis. In 1964 when Saraki, a freshly qualified doctor from Britain, attempted to run as an independent candidate for the House of Representatives, he was given an electoral black eye and forced to beat a humiliating retreat to his Lagos base. But he rallied, deploying the allure of increasing prosperity and the power of guileful generosity.

    By 1983 when he helped the UPN’s Cornelius Tunji Adebayo to trounce, Adamu Attah, the sitting governor, Saraki had become the undisputed political boss of Kwara. But queries about his ambiguous pedigree and dubious lineage persist. Till date, there has been no response to a devastating riposte from Abdul-Ganiyu Abdul-Rasaq, the notable Ilorin lawyer, that Saraki’s father was an Abeokuta indigene who only came to Agbaji for Koranic studies. But even then, the current rulers of the famous city are not indigenes themselves. In Saraki, Ilorin was merely obeying its old logic of political warlordism combined with spiritual predation.

    There are tantalising possibilities in the current face off between father and son which show that history often moves forward by lurching sideway. If the elder Saraki were to prevail against his son, would he have the courage and bloody-minded audacity to bring the full weight of treason against his adored son? If on the other hand, if the younger Saraki succeeds in vanquishing his father would the old man, now worn and exhausted by age and political misfortune, suffer the fate of cruel banishment like the old King Lear?

    Either way, something tells snooper that the bell is tolling for the Saraki dynasty in Kwara. If Bukola prevails, he would have succeeded in opening up the democratic space in Kwara in a profoundly ironic and paradoxical manner. This in spite of himself and his decidedly reactionary worldview which he ventilates with imperial arrogance.

    If on the other hand the father trumps the son, he would have succeeded in installing the first female executive governor in the history of the nation, a feat that has eluded far more progressive enclaves. If this feat were to be achieved in a harshly patriarchal bastion of feudal politics, it will show the cunning of history on spectacular display. Judging from what we have heard of her, nothing will then stop Gbemi from washing some dirty family linen in the public space if only to permanently see off her disloyal brother.

    Every success contains the germ of eventual failure. There may be not much to choose between feudalised democracy and democratised feudalism, but history is still unfolding. When President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, a political sadist cruelly taunted his bedridden father. “This is one deal old Joe cannot fix”. It looks like this is one deal Oloye cannot fix. King Lear has finally arrived in Agbaji. But it will be noted by many generations to come that a major political physician once passed through the plains of Kwara.

     

    •First published in 2011.

      

     

  • Snooping around the capital city (Once again, rustling tea leaves in Abuja)

    Snooping around the capital city (Once again, rustling tea leaves in Abuja)

    There is something very becalming and soul-tranquillizing about Abuja which sits oddly with its reputation as the capital of deadly political intrigues and the capitol of brawling honourables.  Sumo wrestlers abound. Kept thugs, like restrained Alsatians, stare at you from the sprawling amphitheatre of national disorder. Abuja roils forever in palace plots and succession tsunamis.  As one king recedes into antiquity, another begins his reign fumbling and fidgeting ominously with the levers and leverages of power. The king must die, so that the kingdom may live. The emperor is dead, long live the empire.

    You cannot escape family history. Abuja was founded in political intrigues. Its old progenitor prince, the much fabled Abu Jah, was known to have left the Zazzau emirate with his supporters after being worsted in a nasty succession battle in the new Fulani stronghold of Zaria . He had journeyed southward, avoiding the route to the paladins on the plateau with their sure and assured palate for human flesh until he got to the rural paradise nestling on the vast plains of earthy farmers and bucolic humanity. It doesn’t get more peaceful and rewarding.

    There is no big deal about this. Most Yoruba towns and villages were also founded on the same template and prelate: a congregation of disaffected princes and affected paupers fleeing victorious palace coupists. The founder of your own town was an old Oyo prince who had left his forefathers’ empire after being told in no uncertain terms by royal kingmakers that they did not consider him worthy of his father’s storied stool. Go southward, young man, he was ordered with metaphysical finality and alacrity. And southward, he went.

    As the new found  capital of Nigeria, Abuja had its baptism of the fire of political intrigues very early in the day. One night towards the very tail end of 1983, raking gunfire shattered the calm and bucolic charms of the emerging city as well as the complacency of the ruling party, the infamous NPN.  Soldiers had come to terminate the inglorious tenure of the corrupt oligarchy.

    It was said that the Alhaji Aliyu Shehu Shagari, the then president, fled through a tunnel in the presidential palace ably assisted by some loyal soldiers. He was apprehended close to the city of Lafia a few days later. When the smoke cleared, the NPN government had become history. But so also had one of the principal plotters. The urbane, courtly and much admired Brigadier Ibrahim Bako lay dead in the rubble, his life snuffed out by friendly fire.

    The story had it that the brigadier had gone into the presidential dwelling to persuade Alhaji Shagari, a great buddy of his father, to surrender without violence. But something went catastrophically awry with the signals and in the ensuing firefight, Ibrahim Bako was mistaken for enemy and was cut down in the prime of life. Thus ended the life of one of Nigeria’s finest officers. The then Major General Mohammadu Buhari became Nigeria’s military ruler.

    It may interest those currently causing trouble in Abuja that despite his dour, uncommunicative and taciturn exterior, no tactical or strategic detail ever escapes the attention of Mohammadu Buhari. He was rumoured to have ordered discreet investigation into the friendly fire business which terminated the life of the distinguished officer.  But in a great turn of historical irony, the officer who led the forward assault troops that night eventually became a distinguished senator of the Fourth Republic.  If it is the same Buhari that Nigerians have elected their leader and not an expired phantom, the Abuja confederates can be sure that they will hear from him very soon.

    The problem with political intrigues is that once started, no one can be sure of the outcome, not even the principal plotters. Intrigues are equal opportunity employees and they often metastasize in such a way that that they eventually consume their own principals. They trigger off a chain of human reactions the end of which no one can foresee except those very adept at reading tea leaves.

    But if we cannot vouchsafe the eventual outcome of political intrigues, we can foretell the outcome of monumental corruption and graft. It is arrested and retarded national development. After trillions of petrodollars have been lost to humongous graft and brazen state larceny, Abuja is finally beginning to take shape as a modern city of tropical charms and beguiling tranquility. In its leafy suburbs and the architectural wonderland of its suburbia, you have to pinch yourself to confirm that you are still in the hellhole that Nigeria has become.

    As a famous European leftwing contrarian has contended, the glittering cities of the west are not just a monument to human industry and ingenuity but a tribute to millions wasted in process. It is all about the geography of nations. In the tropics, nature plays a spoiling mother. Just as it did to our hunter-gatherer ancestors furnishing them with unearned fruits and venison aplenty, it has also done to their hunter-gatherers successors furnishing them with unmerited natural resources which they waste and fritter away in licentious profligacy. What will take a fraction of resources to build in the west often consumes entire national patrimony in Africa. As it was in the beginning……

    It is late June in Abuja and nature is out in its full resplendent garb. Even the leafy trees and the lush grass appear to be singing. The nostrils pick the aromatic therapy of becalming nature. It clears the mind and the head. The battle zone is far far away, or so it seems until adamant reality began to impinge on dreamy reverie. There can be no paradise surrounded by hell. Something has to give.

    As the First Nation aircraft banked steeply and furiously into the cloudy skies, you are happy to leave Lagos and its diehard denizens. The old colonial capital still retains its Havana-like charms and the quaint Brazilian allure of the surviving ancient quarters of its Portuguese speaking returnees. But despite the best heroic efforts of succeeding administrations, the unfurling megalopolis and bustling conurbation of teeming humanity is fast becoming the world capital of cannibal capitalism with its ever expanding frontiers and trapped economic wannabes. If Nigeria forgets Lagos, Lagos will neither forget nor forgive Nigeria.

    Lest snooper gets carried away by his own sense of epic narrative, it is meet to disclose that what had brought one to Abuja is not the fracas of hooligan honorables or the shenanigans of squabbling senators. As they say, all politics is local. If you are not a good man in your locality, you are not likely to be a good person in your nationality. Like many people, snooper has been personally tormented and traumatized by the plight and misery of workers in Osun State.

    Last Saturday after reading Muyiwa Adetiba’s devastating putdown of the serving governor, yours sincerely felt compelled to send a terse text to a younger friend and old comrade in arms. Anybody who knows Muyiwa Adetiba must know that he is a man without malice or ill will. The governor was so riled and roused by the text and the article that he insisted on an immediate rendezvous in Abuja without any further ado.

    After two long and lengthy one to one sessions, the last stretching into the wee hours of Wednesday morning, one felt sufficiently buoyed that the dire situation of workers in Osun state will be ameliorated if not completely succored in the coming days. In the circumstances, if one loses hope about the fate of Nigeria, exile is no longer an option. The only option is the mental asylum, that is if one is averse to forcibly joining the ancestors.

    The business of the trip concluded, one could not leave Abuja without a courtesy call on the man of the moment who seems to thrive best in adversarial circumstances: Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Even this late in the night, the Asiwaju domain was like an ongoing political rally. You wonder whether they ever do sleep in Abuja.

    A political war council was obviously in session and the place was crawling with political generalissimos : serving and former governors, serving and former senators, current and lapsed assembly people, honorables and former honorables, political ex-servicemen etc. In the expansive dining place, snooper was offered a seat by the departing former governor of Jigawa and his former student at Federal Government College, Kaduna in the seventies: Saminu Turaki.

    In what seemed an eternity after, the man of the moment suddenly materialized from nowhere like a troublous spirit.  He appeared pleasantly surprised to find snooper virtually alone in the dining area munching away without being in the least fazed by all the paraphernalia of power.

    “Ha! The Oloja is here!” the Lion of Bourdillon crowed. Wondering which latest title this one was and sensing that his friend and esteemed comrade in political arms of many decades was not averse to a quick banter despite the unremitting political pressure, snooper rose to the occasion.

    “Oloja of where oooo?” yours sincerely demanded.

    “Oloja of Yakoyo”, the great warhorse retorted as he darted into an adjoining living room for another marathon meet. If all this hurly and burly could be going on, these great political exertions, then it means that the political crisis that has plagued nation and ruling party would soon be a thing of the past, snooper rather naively concluded as he crashed into bed in the early hours of the morning.

    But the sun had hardly risen when Bukola Saraki struck again from his senatorial bunker. Once again, the wonder boy from Agbaji and master of Panzer politics made a short shrift of party directives about senate officials. Ruling Senator Bariyu Gbenga Ashafa summarily out of order,  the son of Oloye threw the party directives into the dustbin with a regal frown and without giving it as much as a glancing look. The lower house followed as if on cue with much wild lunging and fistfest as Speaker Yakubu Dogara looked on in boyish bemusement.

    Surely something is bound to give and very soon, too. Senator Saraki seems to have gone too far in his defiance and contempt of party norms and principles. Men are hanged not because horses are stolen but so that horses will not be stolen, as they say. If the party does not act on this latest Saraki contumely, it is bound to face a shuddering implosion as its authority and legitimacy evaporate. If it acts, it may face a signal fracturing as Saraki leads his fellow dissidents back to the old PDP or some emergent and emergency power formation.

    Complicating the power game,  President Mohammadu Buhari has quietly reasserted his authority by insisting through his alternative spokesperson that he is indeed the leader of the party. It is surely a strange and confounding party leader who will not take more than a cursory interest in the current imbroglio tearing the fragile alliance apart.

    Yet by asserting his leadership claims while showing an apparent disinterest in the festering rebellion in NASS, the president has summarily liquidated all other loci of power in the party while tying the hands the party panjandrums behind their back. Without a presidential imprimatur it may now be impossible to rein in or discipline the Saraki faction without open warfare breaking out in the party.

    In an objective rather than pejorative manner of speaking, all those who helped the retired general to power may yet discover that it is difficult if not impossible to shed the military frame of mind. In the army, there are no political middlemen only officers and men. Buhari is showing his hand as a master of strategic attrition in which the opponent is worn down in a battle of will and psychological stamina. The rope-a-dope strategy famously exemplified by Mohammed Ali prepares you to absorb punishing body blows while you wait to deliver a terminal sucker punch.

    Nigeria and Nigerians are in for very interesting times.  In all probability, it is bound to get rowdier and more chaotic in the short run as centrifugal forces in the ruling party fight for dominance and supremacy and as old regional prejudices reassert themselves in the face of possible political marginalization. If Buhari’s reforms and efforts to sanitize the polity kick in early enough, he may be able to summon a pan-Nigerian phalanx backing and protecting him. But if they don’t, he may find himself at the mercy of an adroitly scheming Bukola Saraki and fellow confederates bent on thwarting and eventually ousting him. It is still early in summer and tea leaves are beginning to rustle once again in Abuja.