Category: Gabriel Amalu

The governor-elect of Enugu State, Peter Mbah, did not exhibit his advertised reputation as a technocrat in the unwieldy 64-man transition committee he set to articulate and fine-tune his incoming administration’s “implementable and impactful development plan” within 30 days. While Mbah’s success with Pinnacle Oil advertises his technocracy, it smacks of poor judgement to set up such an unmanageable team of divergent experts and expect them to come up with a lasting developmental plan within a month.

Except for the calibre of the leadership and membership of the committee, one would have dismissed the committee as a public relations stunt by the incoming administration, which has the daunting task of governing with a minority legislature. Again, considering the arduous election petition filed by the candidate of the Labour Party, Chijioke Edoga, challenging Mbah’s election, could it be that the governor-elect is merely seeking elite consensus to deflate his electoral challenges, extra-judicially?

Of course, it is prejudicial to concede that his administration is merely interim, as many who believe that he lost the election are canvassing. I recall that Enugu State was one of the few states on tenterhooks after the March 18 gubernatorial election, as the results could not be declared because of the dispute over Nsukka and Nkanu East local government votes. Surprisingly, Mbah’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which had bestridden the state since 1999, was shellacked in several of its strongholds by the cyclonic Labour Party of Peter Obi.

So, could the unwieldy transition committee Mbah set up be a panic measure in the face of clear and present danger posed by the rootless Labour Party in Enugu State? (all pun intended). Of course, the candidate of Labour Party, Edeoga, and his bedfellows were members of the PDP, few weeks, if not days, before the Labour Party’s gubernatorial and legislative primaries organised after most of them lost out in the PDP. Clearly, the candidates of the two parties are members of the same political family turned against themselves.

For Mbah, if the allegations of electoral malfeasance in Nkanu East are upheld by the courts, there would still be the hurdle of Section 77(2) &(3) of the Electoral Act 2022, for the candidate of the Labour Party to scale through. Section 77(2) provides that: “every registered political party shall maintain a register of its members in both hard and soft copy.” While Section 77(3) provides: “each political party shall make such a register available to the Commission not later than 30 days before the date fixed for the party primaries, congresses or convention.”

If the matter of locus standi does not impede the cross petition of Peter Mbah, and Section 77 of the Electoral Act is appropriately pleaded and proven, PDP sympathisers believe that the name of Edeoga would not be in such a register of Labour Party, and that should be a ground to dismiss his petition and uphold the cross petition. There are also those who, despite the claims, are persuaded that the allegation of electoral malpractice in Nkanu East is of no moment, and as such Edeoga and Labour Party would not win the case against Peter Mbah and PDP.

While the parties slug it out at the Election Petition Tribunal, this writer hopes the committee would have the opportunity to do a thorough job of distilling out a development agenda for the state. It is one thing to assemble some of the brightest minds in Enugu State, but it is a different kettle of fish to make use of their recommendations. Ordinarily, this columnist believes that if given adequate opportunity, the team led by erudite Ike Chioke would conceive quality policy advisory that can change the governing dynamics in the state.

The challenge, however, is that unless the members are willing to take a leave of absence from their present engagements, they may not be able to articulate and propose the requested “impactful and developmental plan” before May 29, when the committee’s tenure will expire. Except, of course, the committee is willing to split into several sub-committees, and whatever each sub-committee proposes will be adopted by the general house as its common decision. For even with the best intentions, it will require special skill to build consensus amongst the fuller team of divergent egg heads within the time given.

But while wishing the team the best of luck, it is apt to advise Mbah to give the committee an extended period to do the job of recommending sustainable developmental plans for the state. One such way to achieve success is to encourage its splitting into committees of variegated experts. Amongst the core issue for the committee should be how to take advantage of the recent 5th Constitution Alteration Act that listed electricity production and railways in the concurrent legislative list.

If the committee could come up with a bankable proposal, either independently or in association with other states, to produce electricity in the short, medium and long term, such a proposal, if implementable, would be a lasting legacy for Mbah. Luckily, Professor Nebo, the former Minister of Power, is a member of the committee, and could lead such a charge. The major challenge of under industrialisation and unemployment would gain a heft from the stabilisation of power supply, which could come from the work of the electricity sub- committee.

In the area of revenue mobilisation to lift the finances of the state, luckily again, the committee has in its fold required experts. There are top-end bankers and revenue mobilisation experts, like Chief (Mrs) Christy Okoye, a former executive director of First Bank. Of course, underlining whatever developmental plan the governor-elect may plan is the issue of state law reform. Whether in the area of public finance and investment, where Ike Chioke is a renowned expert, or with respect to taking advantage of the electricity reforms, or revenue generation, the enabling laws must be put in place.

And there are distinguished law experts like Professor Joy Ezeilo, who is also an expert in gender rights. With or without Mbah’s plan, Enugu needs an effective law reform commission that should engage in methodological reform of the inherited and enacted laws of the state, for every meaningful development is hinged on the existence of modern developmental laws. Undoubtedly, no serious investor ventures into any jurisdiction where the laws are anachronistic. The committee must also make implementable proposals on educational and other social welfare issues, and they have Rev Fr (Prof) Christian Anieke in their team.

How Peter Mbah would navigate the land mines of an election result that is the subject of bitter recriminations amongst a large chunk of the people he intends to govern will be seen in the days ahead. Unfortunately for him, many believe that the days of PDP in Enugu State, and indeed the Southeast, are numbered.

This column believes that the greatest challenge the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi (Okwute) faces in his future political career is maintaining the love and adoration of his trenchant supporters, the Obidient movement. As was shown in the 2023 presidential elections, Obi within a short period accumulated a cult of followers who could maim in support of his political ambition. These supporters do not suffer any opposition to Obi gladly.

Their adulation for Peter Obi can be comparable to that for President Muhammadu Buhari. For their supporters, both are messianic and they love unquestioningly. While Buhari’s lovers where ready to maim to push his political advancement, until his misadventure in politics embarrassed them thoroughly, Obi’s supporters are adventurous and menacing against any threat imagined or real, in pursuit of their political Eldorado. But unlike Buhari’s supporters who are mostly poor and illiterate, Obi’s supporters are mostly literate, internet savvy, and highly opinionated.

So, while Buhari’s supporters were in their cocoon, wallowing in their worship until their love ventured into the presidency, Obi’s supporters are on their duty posts training their vitriolic apparatchik against any potential enemy, as they push their charge. The supporters believe their subjects of belief are infallible. But the political opponents of Obi have accused him of hypocrisy and exploiting his followers, and have warned that if given a chance he would fail like Buhari. 

Clearly, both supporters are products of the gross maladministration that has made Nigeria a living hell for the majority of Nigerians. They are not angrier than the rest of Nigerians, but they perceive Buhari and Obi respectively as solutions to bad governance. Unfortunately, they are unwilling to allow any critical interrogation of their beliefs. Any attempt to engage in any critical conversation is seen as an attack on their principal, which deserves the most scurrilous abuse and threats.  

The latest victim of Obi’s supporters’ querulous attacks is the revered Nobel Laureate, Wole Soyinka, and he is not likely going to be the last. The attackers most of whom have no sense of history, in their determination to score cheap points, are juxtaposing apple and oranges as one and the same. They believe that by haranguing the Nobel Laureate, they are advancing their march to success. The old bard, who has sacrificed so much for other peoples’ causes, including Biafra, is now being accused of ethnic bias for rightly cautioning Baba-Ahmed Datti’s zealotry.

Before Soyinka they had taken Igbo leaders who hold a different opinion and political persuasion to theirs to the cleaners. One of the first prominent victims was the governor of Anambra State, Chukwuma Soludo, who predicted that Peter Obi cannot win the presidential election on the current platform. Also, the former governor of Enugu State, Chimaroke Nnamani suffered similar fate, when he projected correctly that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu would win the election, and he urged Igbos to support his campaign.

The likes of Imo and Ebonyi State governors are viewed as saboteurs and scoundrels, by the trenchant supporters of Obi. When counselled that no presidential contestant has won the election, solely on the full backing of his ethnic group without any alliance, and that plurality of politics is normal, the person making the argument gets roasted in the social media. For Obi’s followers, his case will be different, and no force will be able to stop the divinely predicted presidency.

Now against their projection, the presidential diadem has become elusive. While originally, anger was propelling their hope, now frustration is propelling their anger. Of course, when one is angry, the capacity to think clearly, and act wisely is diminished. The tendency is to make mistakes and sometimes compound the root causes of the anger. This column believes that majority of supporters of the Obi movement are in such a position now, and that managing their frustration and anger is the greatest challenge of the post-election era.

For Peter Obi, the challenge is enormous. Before the election, his supporters’ anger was channelled towards ensuring that he wins against the odds, as projected by the other hated political elites. After the election was declared, INEC which made the declaration, even when it slipped in its plan to upload the result on INEC IRev portal, became the target of scurrilous attacks and hate. To ensure that they take no chances, the Supreme Court, which would determine the final appeal on the election petition, is forewarned to ensure victory for Obi.

As far as the trenchant supporters of Obi are concerned, any judgment short of returning Obi as winner of the election will be unacceptable. Many of them are unwilling to contemplate the likelihood that the apex court could affirm the election of Tinubu as the winner of the election as declared by INEC. The Chief Justice of Nigeria, Olukayode Ariwoola, recently suffered psychological bruises for daring to travel abroad when Asiwaju, whose mandate would soon be a subject of litigation before his court, also travelled out of the country.

This column shudders at what would happen to the reputation of the learned judge and his brothers, should they reach a judgment that does not appeal to the angrily frustrated supporters of Obi. This column hopes that should the judgment go against them, the worst that could happen will be the umbrage of the judges at the Court of Appeal tribunal, and the Supreme Court, which is the final appellate court for presidential elections, and no more. The challenge thereafter would be what happens to the Peter Obi’s political movement.

Can Peter Obi sustain the interest of his supporters to his political cause for the next four years, for him to remain a force in the next presidential election? To achieve that, how will Obi manage the anger presently driving his supporters, and replace same with an ideological belief that will be self-sustaining? If they continue on the trajectory of abusing and libelling any opposing view point, would he keep faith with their unsustainable style, or will he call them to order, and incur a backlash and virulent attack?        

While Buhari’s former supporters are mostly in the northern part of the country, especially northwest and northeast, which warehouses the poorest of the poor in Nigeria, Obi’s supporters are scattered across the south and north-central, especially the southeast and south-south, which has suffered disproportionately from the maladministration of the recent era. Again, while Buhari’s supporters are mainly Muslims, Obi’s are substantially Christians. So will Obi’s six million voters react to a failed presidential contest, the same way as Buhari’s touted 12 million voters?

Obi must begin to worry about how to convert the bile against past maladministration that drives the Obidient movement, to a sustainable ideological political movement, for his future political relevance.

The recent guidelines issued by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on campaign expenditure may tame extravagant campaign expenses if strictly followed. While for smaller parties the limits on expenses indicate that party politics is still an expensive venture, for bigger parties it would be a big hurdle to keep within the limits of expenditure. The guidelines are based on the Electoral Act 2022, which in sections 85-90 detailed the limits on campaign expenses by parties and their candidates, as well as sanctions for any breach.

Section 88(2) states: “The maximum election expenses to be incurred by a candidate at a presidential election shall not exceed N5,000,000.00” while sub-section 3 provides: “The maximum amount of election expenses to be incurred by a candidate in respect of governorship election shall not exceed N1,000,000.00”. The expenses cascades down to councillorship candidates. Interestingly, Section 98(2) left the limits of campaign expenses of a political party in the hand of the commission in consultation with the parties.

In exercise of that mandate, the commissioned has issued electoral guidelines which provided as follows: “The election expenses of a political party for management of party primaries shall not exceed two-third (2/3) of the limits prescribed for candidates expenses in the Electoral Act 2022 for respective elective positions.” It further provided: “The election expenses of a political party for conduct of elections shall not exceed two-third the limit of election expenses of each candidate multiplied by the number of candidates the political party shall sponsor in a particular election for elective positions.”

By the above provision, the candidate and the political party shall not spend up to N10 billion for presidential campaign, and less than N2billion for gubernatorial campaign. While those sums are humongous for a smaller party wishing to campaign for big positions, it would not go far for the big parties wishing to dominate every part of the country or a state, for the presidential or gubernatorial campaigns as the case may be.  

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The challenges for candidates and political parties are compounded by poor infrastructural development, and insecurity plaguing the country. For a presidential candidate seeking to connect to different parts of the country for campaigns, such candidate has to substantially rely on private transportation arrangement. That would include hiring private jets, and helicopters, instead of riding in a regular flight to a close-by airport and driving to the venue of a political rally. If train services were a feature of our public transport, it would even make it cheaper for candidates and their parties.

Another huge hurdle which would increase the campaign expenses is the prevailing insecurity across the country. Most of the candidates and their parties would be paying huge costs on security for their campaigns across the country. When private candidates are forced to make expensive security arrangement for marriage ceremonies and communities pay heavily for protection from bandits and terrorists, the costs to protect campaign grounds would be much higher. For gubernatorial candidates who may need to go into the hinterland, there would be no-go area, unless accompanied by a battalion of soldiers.

But an interesting guideline is the ceiling on campaign donations from individuals and the requirement for financial records and publications. As stated in reports: “the maximum amount of money or other assets that an individual or an entity can donate to a political party or aspirant for an election shall be N50 million .” Section 90(3) of the Electoral Act provides: “A political party shall not accept any monetary or other contribution which is more than N50,000,000.00 unless it can identify the source of the money or other contribution to the commission.”

The above provision is particularly worthwhile, so that no single individual would use his or her resources to buy up a party, and dictate the tune should such a party win the election. The Act in subsection 4, as a follow up provides: “A political party sponsoring the election of a candidate shall, within three months after the announcement of the results of the election, file a report of the contributions made by individuals and entities to the commission.”

A strict observance of the provisions of Section 89 of the Electoral Act on election expenses of political parties would bring control and sanity to the conduct of political parties, even though some may argue it can also be used to witchhunt parties. Sub-section 3 provides: “Election expenses of a political party shall be submitted to the commission in a separate audited return within six months after the election and such return shall be signed by the political party’s auditors and countersigned by the chairman of the party and be supported by a sworn affidavit by the signatories as to the correctness of its contents.”    

Sub-section 4 provides that “a political party which contravenes sub-section 3 commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a maximum of N1,000,000.00 and in the case of failure to submit an accurate audited return within the stipulated period, the court may impose a maximum penalty of N200,000.00 per day on any party for the period after the return was due until is submitted to the commission.” These provision if substantially applied would bring sanity to the administration of political parties.

No doubt, for a political party to grow organically, transparency in the management of its resources is key, and so the submission and publication in national dailies of the audited accounts of political parties as required by the Electoral Act is important. In the present dispensation, we have seen leaders of political parties run them like a private enterprise, and when such bad leaders are tired, they move on to another party. Again, allegations of corruption no doubt undermine the integrity of leadership and growth of political parties, and hopefully the new law will stem it.

While many have canvased for the creation of special electoral offences court, Section 145(1) of the act however provides that trial of offences contained in the act shall be by Magistrate or High Court of a state in which the offence is committed, or the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Sub-section 2 further provides that prosecution of offenders shall be undertaken by legal officers of the commission or any legal practitioner appointed by it.

There is no doubt that Nigeria is making incremental progress with regards to securing the electoral process, particularly with respect to curbing electoral expenses. The challenge remains getting the political actors to adapt new electoral behaviours, and imbibe the culture of seeing politics as a vocation instead of a business. Those who join political parties mainly for material gains, instead of an avenue to serve, may have to suffer the consequences of the offences listed in the Electoral Act 2022, before they learn their lessons.

The 5th Alteration Act 2023, recently signed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari may be the most significant so far in the incremental attempt to rein in some of the outlandish unitary provisions in the 1999 constitution, foisted on Nigeria, by the hurriedly departing military. While the amendments may not be far reaching for ultra-federalists, it has answered the prayers of this column and many others, with regards to decentralizing the most important modern factor of production – electricity.  

Out of the 16 constitution amendment bills signed into law, the most significant economically is the movement of electricity power production and distribution from exclusive to concurrent legislative list. As has been canvassed here, stultified electricity supply is the major contributor to the poor economic growth of our national economy over the years. Whether generated by wind, water, solar, gas or other forms of fuel, efficient supply and use of electricity can catapult a third world economy to first class economy within a decade.

Until the recent amendment, the economic development of states was strangulated by the monopoly of the federal government of this production enabler. But with the amendment, states can generate, transmit and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid. The effort by states to engage private capital in that sector has gotten a boost with the new constitutional amendment. With the freedom, states wishing to transit to a modern economy now has the opportunity.

Even the highly recommended regional economic integration now has an impetus with the new law. States within any of the regions which wish to collaborate to achieve the gains associated with numbers could lap on that opportunity to jointly own a generation plant, develop and build a sub-national grid and distribution network. Hopefully, in the nearest future, the incessant national grid collapse, would be a thing of past, and regions which have progressive agenda can move own at their own speed.

Under the old regime, the centralized national electricity supply grid was a major challenge. Our maintenance culture of a single national grid exposed the nation to gross inefficiency and sabotage. With a land mass of 923,768 sq.km, it remains a big challenge for the grid to cover the entire country, efficiently. For places already covered by the grid, it remains a huge challenge to maintain and protect that critical national asset. On many occasions the grid either collapses because of maintenance challenge or outright sabotage, while the nation is thrown into darkness.

Again, with rise in trans-national criminality and terrorism, it is unreasonable for a vast nation like ours to rely on a single national grid. An enemy of the nation can seriously hurt the country by attacking the national grid. Even when the grid is on, Nigerians suffered inadequate electricity generation. Despite the huge national resources pumped into the sector since the birth of Electricity Corporation of Nigeria in 1950, and the recent privatization of the power generation plants and distribution companies, the entire generation capacity of our vast country remained 11,165.4 MW, while the Transmission Company of Nigeria could at best transmit 5,801 MW. Whereas to sustain the basic needs of the population, Nigeria needs to generate 40,000 MW.

The chaos is so much that what is generated cannot be transmitted, and where transmitted, cannot be effectively distributed. Where what is transmitted is distributed, getting the end users to pay a fair price is nigh impossible. The result has been that again the privatization of the distribution arm of the industry has failed to make any dent on the challenges. While there is a debate about the capacity of the private companies who got the concessions, the end users continue to pay huge price for the inefficiency in the sector.

So, the constitution amendment that has gifted the sub-national authorities the right to generate, transmit and distribute electricity is revolutionary for a country held down by frustrating unitary laws. While the post-election crisis may have dimmed the import of that development, it is hoped that the emerging governments at the federal and state levels would take advantage of the opportunity and start our country on the path of sustainable economic development.

Another significant economic development in the new Act is the right granted states to establish their own railway service. Again, states and regions can lap on this new law to boost state and regional economies. Interestingly, this column had also canvased for this constitutional amendment and had argued that the southeast could run a rail ring across the five states in the region linking the agricultural belt to the inland port in Onitsha for evacuation to other parts of the country and foreign countries.

Of note, Professor Ben Ayade of Cross River had proposed the establishment of a super highway from his state, abutting a deep sea port, to Maiduguri. Such a highway, can be complimented by a rail line, built by the regions in that part of the country, since the federal government is reluctant to rebuild the old Port Harcourt to Maiduguri rail line. The states can also develop trams and intra-state rail services as Lagos State is seriously working on, in the state.

One more significant provision in the amendment is the grant of financial independence to state Houses of Assembly and state judiciary. This development would help push state governors to be more accountable to the people they govern. Under the old regime, most of the governors project themselves as emperors, unaccountable to the state legislature, which is supposed to oversight them. Many state governors also use the control of state finances to subjugate the state judiciary, and so the amendment is a big boost to the independence of the legislature and judiciary.

Unfortunately, the complementary need for states and even local governments to have the constitutional right to establish state police has not been achieved, under the 5th constitution amendment. With the election of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a strong advocate of restructuring, it is expected that many of the stifling unitary laws that have held our nation down since the advent of military government would be amended. Even when the National Assembly is populated by reactionary forces, there is hope for the emergence of a more federal Nigeria.

The implication of the highlighted provisions of the 5th Alteration Act is that sooner than later, Nigerians would begin to have super states, which will join Lagos State, the acclaimed fifth largest economy in Africa to contend with national governments in the continent. Again as has been canvassed on this column, Nigeria must make a conscious effort to energize more sub-national economies, to help decongest Lagos and boost the nation’s economy. Without the emergence of more super states, Nigeria is sitting on a keg of gun powder.

What happened to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the presidential election of February 25, should be a lesson to other politicians. Relying on primordial sentiment, it was believed in PDP leadership circle that Atiku will win the 2023 presidency whether the rest of the country like it or not. His promoters believed that he would gain the majority of votes across northern Nigeria, do well in Southeast and South-south and marginally well in Southwest states.

His supporters’ mantra was: “Atiku is coming.” That believe was why the party rode roughshod over the PDP’s constitution which provided for rotation of political offices, between the north and south. They believed that no southern candidate can defeat Atiku Abubakar, with his wide network of political affiliates across the country. With that mind-set, the hubris of arrogance set in, and the party leadership began to act like a drunken sailor.

In the beginning, when it became evident that the Atiku presidential candidacy would be forced down the throat of other contenders, the likes of Dave Umahi of Ebonyi and Ben Ayade of Cross River states, left the party and joined the All Progressives Congress (APC). The governors who remained despite their misgivings later teamed up as the G5 governors, led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State. The group believed they could contend with the anachronistic forces propelling the candidacy of Atiku Abubakar.

But, while Wike and company were asleep, the Atiku forces sowed discord within their ranks. The forces by hook or crook got the former party chairman, Uche Secondus, whom Wike had installed, and believed would remain on his ring side, onto the Atiku gravy train. With haste, Wike and his group quickly derailed the train, in which Secondus was ensconced, and crashed it. Atiku, a master of the political chess game waited at the last bus stop, knowing the train will wobble to the end in whatever condition.

The PDP, bruised and battered by internal wrangling, thought it had hired the best hand to rework the party, when majority of their members settled for Iyorchiu Ayu, as the new party chairman, after a lot of horse trading. Wike and company which had a hand in settling for Ayu, instead of former Senate President David Mark, who they saw as self-confident and close to the former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s forces, thought they had settled for a meek and gentle man.

But sooner than later, they found out that the ghost of Atiku was already cast on Ayu; but by then it was too late to orchestrate another change of party chairman. Going into the presidential party primary, Wike and company extracted a promise from Ayu that if a northerner emerges as the presidential candidate of the party, he would voluntarily resign his position, to enable a southerner emerge as chairman, so as to pay at least lip service to the party’s constitution.

Wike and company must have thought that the love of self was enough to guard Ayu from hopping on the Atiku gravy train. Alas, they soon found out that the former senate president was scheming to eat his cake and still have it. He engineered the success of Atiku at the presidential primary, but was determined to keep his position as chairman, damn the feeling of the other party faithful. All entreaties to abide by the gentleman agreement fell on deaf ear.

Latching on that debacle, Wike and company had a good alibi to spread banana peels, along the presidential campaign trail of Atiku and his groovy train passengers. And as it dey pain Atiku and company, it dey sweet Wike and company. Going forward, it was a fight to finish, and the results was seen on February 25, and most recently on March 18. While Atiku was ‘roundly beaten’ in the presidential election, leading members of the Wike group, governors Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, Samuel Ortom of Benue and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia states paid with their senatorial ambitions.

While Wike and Seyi Makinde of Oyo State have emerged from the maelstrom of the PDP intrigues substantially un-scattered, the other three governors, with Atiku and Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal of Sokoto state, have paid grave prices for the PDP political fiasco. This column early January, predicted what happened to the G5 governors, in its intervention titled: Five fish bones. Of course, this column sympathises with the three governors, for their contribution to stop Atiku, from abusing the return of the presidency to the south.

But having successfully stopped Atiku, albeit at a huge collateral cost, for the party, it will be interesting to see how the party regains cohesion and momentum to play opposition politics for the next four years. The challenge is even made more difficult with the emergence of Peter Obi (Okwute), who left PDP to become a political dynamo, in the Labour Party (LP). Of course, Peter Obi left PDP, because he saw that the party had foreclosed a fair presidential ticket contest, even before it started. Luckily for him, he has become a political force, to be reckoned with.

So, how will PDP rebuild? Will the Atiku and the Wike camp be able to bury the hatchet, and forge ahead? To fully consolidate into a future contender against the ruling party, will the Obi followers agree to reconnect with PDP, and if so, in what name or manner? Of course, if the contending forces fail to reconcile; with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president, each of the political forces will stand a little chance, contending with the APC in four years’ time. Should the three contending forces work together, what would be the reaction of the ruling party?

For APC, the hubris that has badly weakened PDP, a feared political behemoth eight years ago, should be a lesson. Without prejudice to the aspirations of those at the presidential tribunal, to win the presidential election, a candidate must have the support of at least two out of the three major ethnic groups in the country. The president-elect saw that many years ago, and started the difficult and painstaking effort to build a formidable alliance. When he could not do it organically, he forged a formidable alliance with other parties.

For this column, future political successes depends on forging, nurturing and sustaining political alliances, not regardless, but beyond ethnic and parochial interests, and based on sustainable political philosophy, like manifest good governance. The future definitely does not belong to the sabre-rattling and ethnic batting of academic politicians, who out of excitement are framing electoral successes along unsustainable ethnic lines.

This column is already looking at what party politics will look like, in the near future when the likes of Atiku Abubakar, take the back seat.

As it was in his beginning, so it is in his ending. Perhaps, former President Olusegun Obasanjo would be gloating that his prediction before the 2015 presidential election that a President Muhammadu Buhari would be weak in economic management has come to pass. After his election, President Buhari initiated strange economic policies including the closure of Nigerian borders, the banning of the importation of essential food items and multiple foreign exchange windows, to frog-march the fiscal and monetary policies to his blurred vision.

As warned by economic experts, the nation reeled into stagflation and recession and it took some efforts and years before Buhari’s government could return the nation’s economy to positive growth. Those who hailed the closure of Nigeria’s border and the banning of importation of essential food items as a magic wand to force backward integration and enhanced production ate crow when inflationary pressures skyrocketed the prices of essential food items. While rice production has tremendously expanded, the prices in the market havw not changed.

Back then, Nigerians were encouraged to bear the excruciating pains on the promise that the draconic measures would crash the cost of food items and improve local production of goods and agricultural products. As the Buhari’s presidency winds down seven and half years after, inflationary pressures have made a mess of the government promises. The multiple foreign exchange windows geared towards forcing preferential treatment for the productive sector merely became an avenue for those in charge to corruptly enrich themselves.  

As this column predicted the penultimate week in a piece titled: “Stone age monetary policy”, the ill-conceived quick-match demonetization of N200, N500 and N1,000 notes as a one-in-all cure of the challenges bedevilling the national economy in the past years, has failed woefully. One of the basic most important questions before a policy is initiated is sustainability. With President Buhari’s tenure ending in three month, how can he guarantee the sustainability of the programme? Which newly elected president would sustain the cruelty Nigerians are subjected to in the name of a monetary policy?

President Buhari has repeatedly asked Nigerians to vote Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) to sustain his legacy, yet he has so irked members of his party to the extent that nine APC and one Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors have dragged him to court over the demonetisation policy. To compound the crisis engineered by the policy, the entire 19 APC governors and the National Working Committee of his party have asked for the return of the old naira notes. So, who would sustain the legacy he is talking about?

Ondo State governor, Rotimi Akeredolu SAN, who until he initiated the Southwest security outfit, Amotekun, was highly regarded by President Buhari, has written an open letter to Buhari to reverse the policy as its implementation has failed. He pointed out that “the N1000 and N500 notes represented 82% of the currency in circulation and that the N200 notes, whose validity has been extended, by fiat, for another 60 days, represented 7%.” Of course, the reintroduction of the insignificant N200 notes would not ameliorate the sufferings Nigerians are facing because of the policy.   

To make matters worse, Nigerians are suffering in vain, as the poorly implemented policy would not solve any of the challenges projected for its introduction. This column prays the hare-brained implementation of the demonetisation policy would not result in another round of recession, which will take several months to heal. Again, while agreeably, there would be less money to spend during the election, would that ‘artificial scarcity’ affect the outcome of the election?

As should be obvious to President Buhari now, the politicians, including members of his political party, have successfully framed the punishing demonetization policy in the public consciousness as a private policy of the president. So, while the unrealistic time frame for the demonetisation of the named naira notes would be discarded by his successor, Nigerians would remember the punishing policy as another of Buhari’s failed policy. Unfortunately, the president is pushing the dehumanising policy as a positive legacy project, when in reality it will count against him as a negative one.

This column wonders why President Buhari believes that those who have or would lose loved ones because there is no money to buy drugs, or those whose children have stopped or will stop going to school as the CBN wobbles and fumbles with the distribution of scarce naira notes because their parents have no cash to pay for transport or buy snacks for lunch, would give Buhari a pass mark when recounting his legacy. 

This column like many Nigerians is shocked that in an effort to “cure corruption” in politics in his last days as president, which has flourished under his regime, Buhari is willing to sacrifice the lives of innocent Nigerians. There have been riots in many states across the country, and lives and properties lost. The days ahead looks very bleak, as the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institution (ASSBIFI) while suspending nation-wide strike has directed bank staff in states where there are attacks by hoodlums to stay at home until normalcy returns.

There are also reports that banks have lost billions in assets because of the attacks, by disenchanted Nigerians. As banks are attacked, businesses are also affected, and many small and medium enterprises are closing up, with the ripple effect on the owners, workers and suppliers. Thousands if not millions of man-hours are wasted as Nigerians wait at banks for the cash that never arrives. While the cash crunch is causing damage to the economy, even the little gains made by some policies of the Buhari regime, like cash transfer policy to alleviate poverty, is being eroded.

Unfortunately, because of the poor implementation of the demonetisation policy, instead of lifting Nigerians from poverty as promised by the Buhari regime, many more Nigerians would dive into the poverty trap. Many of such persons would be those whose businesses are destroyed by the misbegotten implementation policy. Many other Nigerians would also lose their lives, as Buhari seeks revenge against his fellow politicians. The election may even be marred, if riots break out and some INEC ad hoc staff are unable to get to their designated polling booths on the election day.

Just like in his incarnation as military president, and his first years as civilian president, President Buhari thinks that he can employ military tactics of surprise and attack, to deal with systemic economic challenges and corrupt practices. As should be evident to him in his last days as president, such measures do not achieve the desired result. Regrettably, Nigerians are paying huge price for his faulty passes.