The Nation Newspaper

Category: Gabriel Amalu

  • Wike vs Yerima

    Wike vs Yerima

    The past week has been tetchy for the Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. It started with a confrontation with a young Navy Lieutenant Ahmad Yerima, over access to a disputed land in Abuja. Wike who has tamed the high and mighty in the current political dispensation by his rambunctiousness, was dragged by the derring-do comportment of the young officer, Lt. Yerima. 

    While many social media enemies of the minister and even very knowledgeable commentators have been in a celebratory mode, that for once, Wike came away as the weaker person in a fight, the real issue in dispute have been relegated to the background. Wike as the overlord of the FCT, had gone to the site to chase away illegal military men sent to guard a disputed land owned by a retired Vice Admiral, but he came away with a bruised ego.

    In the video that went viral, Lt. Yerima showed himself, an example of officer and gentleman. While Wike appeared angry and querulous, Yerima was calm and comported. But for the circumstance surrounding his presence on the land, he would have become an instant hero and the face of how a young officer should behave when confronted in the line of duty, by an aggressive civilian superior. While the officer technically knocked out Wike in the confrontation, as captured by the social media, there is more to the issue at stake.

    Read Also: Tinubu orders manhunt for abductors, rescue of 25 pupils

    The ultimate question should be, between Minister Wike and Lieutenant Yerima, who has the right to be at the disputed site? By virtue of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (Delegation of Powers) Decree No 12 of 1985, the functions of a governor of a state have been delegated to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, in the current dispensation, Minister Nyesom Wike. And the powers of a governor or in this instance a minister, with regards to land under his care are very expansive.

    By virtue of section 5 of the Land Use Act, the Minister of the FCT, has powers to manage land in both urban and non-urban areas, primarily by granting statutory rights of occupancy for any purpose, granting easements, demanding and revising rent, and imposing penal rent for breach of covenants. Section 11 of the Act further empowers the minister or a designated public officer to enter and inspect land and its improvements, as part of the authority to manage and administer land in the FCT.

    The land is dispute was reportedly purchased by a former Chief of Naval Staff, retired Vice Admiral Awwal Gambo, from a private company. The company had applied for conversion of the use of land, but sold to the general before the approval, which was eventually rejected. While under the Armed Forces Act of Nigeria, the retired general is not entitled to security details, by convention and practice, he is entitled to armed personal security details, to watch over his residence.

    Having such armed guard to watch over his land in dispute, is a different kettle of fish. Clearly, no serving or retired general has right to commandeer junior officers to secure any land in dispute. So, Lt. Yerima was likely on an illegal duty. Those who sent him ought to know that. It is strange that when the land became a subject of dispute, instead of having recourse to the courts for redress, the general sent soldiers to guard the land.

    While the young officer came off as a hero to those who have one axe or another to grind with Minister Wike or even President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, he has exposed himself to conduct prejudicial to service discipline. Of course, with the ministers of defence jumping into the fray, politics may overshadow discipline in the line of duty. But for politics, that omnibus clause on service discipline would have caught him.

    Despite the excitement in the social media, this writer doubts if there was an official posting for Lt. Yerima and the soldiers stationed at the site, to prevent legitimate officials of the FCT from accessing the land. Even if Vice Admiral Gambo was a retired five-star general, no serving officer in the Navy would stick his head to post Lt. Yermia and other ranks as guards over a land, whether in dispute or not.

    That deal would likely be an under-the-table arrangement. And if a commissioned officer was posted to guard a construction site, when Nigeria is at war, then the Nigerian Navy deserves a total overhaul. But while the dispute lasts, the young officer is having his days in the sun. He has become a celebrity for Nigerians beleaguered by the harsh economic realities of our time. They see him as a hero who was able to slay one of the dragons afflicting their lives.

    The social media which has become an elixir for the economic tribulations of the present times will celebrate their young hero for a long time to come, even if the military laws should catch up with him. Like Wike, he has risen to fame, but I don’t know whether to fortune. If elections are done on the social media, this writer would have advised Yerima to resign his commission and plunge into politics. But alas, it is not. Minister Wike has many bruises to show for his own rise to stardom.           

    In the current democratic dispensation, few politicians have had as much impact in the last decade on national politics as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. While he was a neophyte (as politicians like to refer to smaller powers and principalities in politics) in the first one and half decades of this republic, he has grown to become one of the most talked about politician, since 2015, after he won the governorship election of Rivers State.

    He won that election, with the support of President Goodluck Jonathan, in spite of the strong opposition from then incumbent governor of the state, Rotimi Amaechi. While he won his governorship election, his principal, President Jonathan lost the presidential election.  With no political godfather breathing down his neck, he quickly grew in stature to become his own man.  In the very oily and slippery politics of Rivers State, he was able to cobble a coalition to steady the state politics against the incendiary attacks of Rotimi Amaechi’s All Progressive Congress (APC).

    With the PDP doddering nationally, Wike moved in as the deus ex machina, and cobbled a coalition of young Turks, that stood the withering attacks by the APC across the country. His predecessor, Amaechi, who President Buhari gave the juicy Ministry of Transportation, with an open cheque in his dealings with the Chinese, could not a make a dint in the subsequent elections in 2019 and 2023 in Rivers State. But Wike’s fight against APC is now in the distant past.

    The winner of the tango between Minister Wike and Lt. Yerima may depend on how the embarrassing confrontation is framed ultimately, in the mind of President Tinubu, who is the boss for both of them, as the chief executive and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Unfortunately for the disputants, when the chips are down, those cheering on both sides would not be there to help.

  • Anambra exposes opposition parties

    Anambra exposes opposition parties

    The governorship election in Anambra State has exposed the weakness of opposition parties in the state. With 422,664 votes, out of 584,054 total valid votes cast in the off-season election, Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), trashed the opposition parties. The closest rival, the All Progressive Congress (APC), garnered 99,445 votes, followed by Young Progressive Party (YPP) with 37,445 votes. The Labour Party (LP) got 10,576, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), 8,208, and the Peoples’ Democratic Party, mere 1,401 votes.

    While this column expected Soludo to win the election, based on his performance as acclaimed by many Anambrarians, the landside result should embarrass the opposition parties. In the 2021 governorship election, Soludo won with 46.47% of the votes cast, while PDP got 22.28%, APC 17.92% and YPP 8.80%, of the votes cast, at that election. But in the election held last weekend, APGA, garnered about 70.65% of the valid votes cast.

    While APC managed to garner 17.02% of the valid votes cast in last week’s governorship election which is not much different from what it got in the 2021 election (17.92%), the PDP which came second in the 2021 governorship election in Anambra with 22.28%, embarrassingly got a mere 0.23% of the valid votes cast in the election last week, in the state. Without gainsaying, the Anambra election exposed the underbelly of the PDP, which has been under the spell of factional crisis.

    Castrated by the fights between two factions, one now led by Umar Iliya Damagun and loyal to the tendency championed by the governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde, and the other led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, the former PDP governors who recently jumped ship would be having a banquet of laughter. The effort to revive the party remains futile, with the two factions seeking favourable court judgments from courts of coordinate jurisdiction.

    Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court, Abuja, while delivering judgment in the suit filed by Austin Nwachukwu (Imo PDP chairman) Amah Abraham Nnanna (Abia PDP chairman), and Turnah George (PDP Secretary South-south) declared the processes leading to the convention as invalid, and asked parties to obey the provisions of the 1999 constitution (as amended), as well as the party’s constitution, on the election of delegates to an elective national convention.

    On the other hand, Justice A. L. Akintola, of Oyo State High Court, following an ex parte application, filed by one Folahan Adelabi, against the now acting factional chairman, Umar Damagun, Governor Umaru Fintri, the head of the National Convention Organizing Committee, and the Independent National Electral Commission (INEC), issued an interim order that the convention programmes must not be altered. While the two courts are of coordinate jurisdiction, most respectfully, this column doubt if the ruling by Justice Akintola is diametrically opposed the judgment of Justice Omotosho.

    While the outcome gives that impression to the general public, the issues raised before the two courts, by the different applicants, are different. It would have been a different matter if the issues raised by the different litigants in the two separate courts, are similar, and the learned Judges after listening to the parties, reached divergent judgments. That appears not to be so in the separate cases before the courts of coordinate jurisdiction.

    So, while for INEC, the germane issue may seem to be whether to attend the convention, or not; Justice Omotosho’s judgment, unless set aside on appeal, may invalidate everything the factional PDP do at that convention. The governor of Enugu State, Barrister Peter Mbah, who while justifying his defection to the APC, said, he did not want the state to be interred with the PDP, would be having a good laugh. So, too, the governors of Delta, Akwa Ibom, and most recently Bayelsa State.

    The other party exposed by the Anambra election, is the LP, on whose platform, the former governor of Anambra State and the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, contested. Despite the campaign by Obi, for the candidate of the party, George Moghalu, he came fourth, with an embarrassing 1.81% of the valid votes cast at the election. Yet, Obi of the same LP, garnered 95.24% of the votes cast in the state, in the presidential election in 2023.

    While clearly, Obi can legitimately say that the result would be different were he to be on the ballot as a contestant, the fact remains that it reflects the disillusionment of the party supporters, considering the unremitting crisis that has befallen the party, since the last general election. With three factions seeking to strangulate each other, it is even surprising that the party made it to the ballot. Perhaps, it was a case of which of the factions had the most recent court judgment before the elections, with the implication that a superior court order may surface thereafter.

    Read Also: Religion not Nigeria’s crisis, says Soyinka

    The impact of a disoriented LP platform, would definitely affect Peter Obi, if he were to run on the party’s platform in the 2027 presidential election. Surprisingly, it appears that Peter Obi takes his popularity for granted. In the recent bye-election in the state, the former presidential candidate reportedly campaigned for the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), who was thoroughly beaten at the polls. For him to swing back, to support the LP, in the governorship election, gives the impression that he believes he can swing the voters wherever he chose.

    The ADC which some erstwhile PDP and APC bigwigs hobnobbed with, after leaving their former parties, didn’t show any prospects. Her candidate, John Nwosu, scored a woeful 1.4% of the valid votes cast at the election. Again, the sympathy earlier shown to the coalition by Peter Obi did not sway votes to the touted coalition behemoth. With no party bigwig in the southeast defecting to the ADC, it is obvious that the party will not make any inroad in the region or inherit from the crisis afflicting the PDP.

    With the other 15 candidates in the Anambra governorship election not getting up to 30% of the valid votes cast, the state of opposition parties in the country is a cause for worry. While not begrudging the winner, the political environment is healthier when there are one or more vibrant opposition parties in contest. Sadly, perhaps, because of the insufferable greed on the part of political actors, and excruciating poverty on the party of the citizens, the life of opposition parties in Nigeria, is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short; apologies to Thomas Hobbes’s Leviathan.

    While wishing Professor Chukwuma Soludo, referred to as “Soludo Solution”, in the book: Service Above Self, a fulfilling second term in office, no doubt, a vibrant opposition is always necessary, for effective governance.

  • Help Nigeria needs

    Help Nigeria needs

    The threat by the President of the United States of America (POTUS), Donald Trump, to invade Nigeria, “if the Nigerian government continues to allow the killing of Christians” will tantalize many victims of the vicious attacks by Moslem extremist groups like the Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) and similar terrorist groups making life unbearable for residents in many parts of Nigeria. For such victims, especially in the northeast, Plateau and Benue states, where thousands have been killed by insurgents, invasion by the Trump army as guardian angels will be welcomed.

    But, that would be only one part of the story, considering that the lives of thousands of regular Moslems have also been wasted by some vicious religious extremists. A jejune argument would be that there are no extremist Christians killing Moslems, the same way there are extremist Moslems killing Christians. Also, that prominent Moslem leaders in the country do not vehemently and openly condemn such vicious killings. Another of such untenable argument would be that it is Moslems that are killing their fellow Moslems, so why should the rest none Moslems bother.       

    The truth however is that extremist Moslems constitute danger to moderate Moslems, Christians and non-believers wherever they operate to establish a theocratic state. If they can, they would kill every person who does not agree with their extremist ideology, in pursuit of their narrow interest. Sadly, as evidence have shown in several countries across the world, they mask their political interests, while fighting to conquer and excise power, under the cloak of religious piety, and the gullible Moslems believe them.

    A ready example is Afghanistan. It has remained a desolate country despite being a Moslem country, because of the internecine war for political power, between extremist Moslems and the moderates. The Taliban which pretend to be fighting for religious piety are in reality fighting for political control of the country. When they gain control, they impose extremist religious doctrines to mask their real intention, which is political control of the country and its resources.

    Like in the Animal Farm by George Orwell, they create an animal kingdom, where some animals are more equal than others. They live off the resources of the state, and use the apparatus of state to whip the rest into line. Like the pigs, the bloody extremists would say: “it is for your sake that we drink the milk and eat those apples” while the gullible fool will intone “I will work harder.” They would say: “Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy. Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend” and the masses will chant amen.

    Similar masked extremism plays out in several predominant Moslem countries, and parts of northern Nigeria. What complicates the Nigerian situation is the mixture of religious extremism with ethnic exceptionalism, particularly in the northern part of the country. For an example, the killings in the middle belt are substantially fuelled by the desire by an ethnic militia to control natural resources of another ethnic group. Even former president, Muhammadu Buhari alluded to that when he urged the ethnic groups in the region to accommodate the herdsmen, who are seeking pasture.

    But the crisis in the northeast part of the country seeks to create a theocratic Moslem caliphate that would overthrow the present political configuration. It can be argued that should such permutation work, it would extend westward to possibly overthrow the Usman Dan Fodio dynasty that has dominated local political leadership for over a century now. While religion is a form of binding force for those pursuing ethnic exceptionalism and those pursuing religious extremism, the fact is that in the long run, both cannot cohere.                 

    Of course, should US attack Nigeria, the two interest would likely work together to defend their common interest. While one is not a military expert, one ponders on the complexity of such an attack. Except in the northeast, where the Boko Haram is localized in the massive forests of the Lake Chad region, one wonders the focal points of attack for the US forces. With the threats from the extremists in several parts of the country, how will the mighty US Army wipe out the threats against Christians livings in several parts of the country?  

    If there should be such intervention to help secure the lives of Christians which Trump claims to be the main objective, the inter-ethnic and religious rivalry in Nigeria would likely exacerbate, and the country may degenerate into a civil war. While Trump has modern military capabilities, rich Moslem countries, have money to pour into the theatre and Nigeria could become another Ukraine. With no clear cut boundaries between Christians and Moslems across the country, it may turn into a war without boundaries.

    Read Also: JUST IN: NSA Office to brief media on Trump’s genocide claim against Christians in Nigeria

    To protect the Christian minority in the northern part of the country, will the Trump army patrol the streets, guard the churches, clerics and Christians as they engage in their routine and religious activities? If the rich Moslem countries fund Moslem militias to also protect Moslems, will the country not degenerate into atrocious internecine, inter-ethnic and religious wars similar to the Bosnian War in the 1990s? If the US army should fight to save Christians from Moslems, how would they deal with spouses, brothers and sisters who share different faiths?

    Few years ago, many international pundits had predicted that Nigeria would disintegrate before now. The argument was premised on the fact that all the indices of a failed state were prevalent in the country. For example, there are several armed non-state actors, challenging the state monopoly of force. The national economy is dependent on external shocks and the political elites are willing to fight to finish. The inflationary pressure remained frightening, while the population was growing way ahead of economic development, to compound the bourgeoning youth unemployment.

    Until May 2023, many states in the country could not pay salaries without borrowing from the bank. The national economy suffered deep stagflation, and running away from the country, was considered the wisest investment for the young and even not so young. To the amazement of the world, Nigeria is turning the bend, and despite the economic hardship, the majority appears willing to give the political actors, led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a chance to succeed or fail.

    Should Donald Trump fall into the trap set by international buccaneers who want to trade on Nigerians’ misery, the consequences will reverberate across the entire continent and even beyond. What US can do for Nigeria, is to supply her army with requisite knowledge, intelligence and ammunition to defeat the several insurgency groups seeking to destabilize the country. This writer hopes the threat from Trump would be a wake-up call for the ruling elite and the national army, to save their face, and protect our nation’s independence and integrity.

  • Amupitan and godfathers

    Amupitan and godfathers

    This columnist doesn’t know whether Professor Joash Ojo Amupitan, the newly installed Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairman, has ever read “The Godfather” by Mario Puzo. In that famous novel, Vito Corleone, the godfather, while making peace with the dons of the other mafia families, after a failed attempt to assassinate him, gave a near impossible condition for peace to reign. He told his bewildered underworld colleagues: “I am a superstitious man, a ridiculous falling, but I must confess it here.”

    He went on: “And so if some unlucky accident should befall my youngest son, if some police officer should accidentally shoot him, if he should hang himself in his cell, if new witnesses appear to testify to his guilt, my superstition will make me feel that it was the result of the ill-will still borne me by some people here. Let me go further. If my son is struck by a bolt of lightning I will blame some of the people here.”

    Corleone furthered on his terms of peace: “If his plane should fall into sea or his ship sink beneath the waves of ocean; if he should catch a mortal fever, if his automobile should be struck by a train, such is my superstition that I would blame the ill-will felt by people here. Gentlemen, that ill-will, that bad luck, I could never forgive.” As this writer read the encomiums that followed the distinguished professor of law, Joash Amupitan, to the exalted position of INEC chairman, the words of Don Corleone, reverberated.

    With his curriculum vitae, reading like a book, Amupitan, became the darling of hitherto die-hard antagonists of the nomination of INEC chairman, by a sitting president. In the senate, he spoke with such eloquence and candescence that after two hours, when the senate president following a motion, put a voice vote, whether Amupitan should be allowed to bow and go, the ayes had it. The few nay-sayers were not outraged, for they merely wanted an opportunity to speak to the legal giant.

    Within the civil society, the story was rife that Professor Amupitan was a member of the team of Senior Advocates of Nigeria that defended the president after the 2023 general election. Without engaging in any research, those who dominate the civil space with their diatribes swore that the 2027 presidential election was already compromised, before the due date, and they were determined to use all means available to them, to oppose the nomination of Amupitan, being the godfathers of the civil space. 

    Luckily for Amupitan, he was not a member of the team of SANs and he was in no way connected to the president. Indeed, there is also no evidence that he is connected to the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC). As a result, the nay-sayers have shown willingness to give him the benefit of doubt, as the new INEC helmsman. But while not a pessimist, this writer wonders how long the honeymoon with the self-appointed godfathers will last?

    So, far, in his statements, Amupitan appears to have struck the right cords. He said to his staff: “we should not compromise our values or processes that could have consequences. So the integrity of our elections is not even something we should negotiate, please.” He also said: “Mr. President, in his remark, also echoed the same, that we should do everything possible as we go into an Anambra election to give this country a free, fair and credible election.” He also promised that staff welfare will be a priority, since much will be expected from them.        

    But does the 1999 constitution (as amended), and the Electoral Act, 2022, give the INEC chairman the powers to guarantee a free, fair and credible election? According to paragraph 14(1) The Independent National Electoral Commission shall compromise the following members: – (a) a Chairman, who shall be the Chief Electoral Commissioner; and (b) twelve other members to be known as National Electoral Commissioners.” Section 14(3) further provides: – “There shall be for each State of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, a Resident Electoral Commission….” None of those are appointed by or can be sacked by the chairman.

    Among other ancillary responsibilities, paragraph 15 provides: – “The Commission shall have power to – (a) organize, undertake and supervise all elections to the offices of the President and Vice-President, the Governor and Deputy Governor of a State, and to the membership of the Senate, the House of Representatives and the House of Assembly of each State of the Federation.” While the duties are expansive, there are no legal provisions to guarantee the necessary powers to perform the functions.

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    For instance, INEC is not self-financing. It has to rely on the Federal Executive Council and National Assembly to get the necessary finances to perform the functions. While Section 3(3) of the Electoral Act, 2022, provides: “The election funds due to the Commission for any general elections are to be released to the Commission not later than one year before the next general election”, there is no provision that what is released must be adequate or according to the demands of the commission.

    The commission also does not have control over the nation’s underdeveloped infrastructure. While distribution of materials and collation of results from the towns and nearby villages can easily be dealt with by the commission, what can it do with remote parts of the country, some of which have no access roads or difficult means of connection? Will those clamouring that all election results be transmitted electronically real time, hold Amupitan responsible if it became practically impossible to do so?

    While sensitive electoral materials are usually delivered very close to the day of election and handed over to the electoral officers on the morning of election from secure custodies, would Amupitan be held accountable if there are no vehicles, or boats or even light aircrafts to ferry an electoral officer or some sensitive materials or results after the election, to and from the election any centre scattered across the length and breadth of our expansive country?

    With majority of the political actors grossly undisciplined, how would Amupitan rein in, those who seek to compromise the electoral officers or use brutal force to determine the outcome of the results, in several far flung voting centres across the country? Should the security agencies get induced to compromise in one of such remote places, would the INEC chairman be held accountable? While this column looks forward to further improvements in our elections, under Amupitan, there are enormous challenges bedevilling elections in our country. 

    Unfortunately, like Vito Corleone, the godfather, many Nigerians are superstitious when judging the INEC chairmen. For such people, it is only when their preferred candidates win that they accept that elections are free, fair and credible.

  • Opposition parties in disarray

    Opposition parties in disarray

    Despite the propaganda of the emergent African Democratic Party (ADC), and the Labour Party (LP), the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), remains the main opposition party in the country with a potential to put up a fight against the dominant All Progressive Congress (APC), in the 2027 general election if they can put their house in order. But with all the crisis bedevilling the PDP, it appears the party would remain in disarray, unless the warriors sheathe their swords.  

    Looking back, former president, Goodluck Jonathan and former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, principally bear the blame for the precipitate decline of the PDP. What Atiku started in the run up to the 2011 general election by decamping from the party, Jonathan consolidated by running for the 2015 general election which he eventually lost. While PDP members, especially from the north accepted as fait accompli that Vice President Jonathan should run for election in 2011, after completing the term granted late President Umaru Yar’Adua, they rejected outright his attempt to run again in 2015.

    From hindsight, the division caused by the decision of Jonathan to run led to a fissure, and the emergence of what became known as new PDP, which some governors and legislators championed. The eventual loss of power by the party saw the exodus of many members of the party, especially the fair weather ones, to the APC which won the presidential poll with President Muhammadu Buhari, as flag bearer. And ever since, it has been a free fall for the PDP.

    Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, after abandoning the party during their crisis period, returned for the second time, to hijack the presidential ticket of PDP for the 2023 general election. That action appears to have set the party down to its current free fall to destruction. The former governor of Rivers State and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, having been deceived by the former Speaker, House of Representatives and former governor of Sokoto, Aminu Tambuwal (an Atiku accomplice), appears to have forsworn never to be taken for a ride again, by the party men.  

    Wike has ensured that he has the PDP is in his vice grip, and so unless on terms, that he considers as fair and just, he has vowed that the party will not hold the National Convention to elect new party leaders. Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, of Oyo and Bauchi states, respectively, and other party leaders who dared Wike to do his worst, are realizing that life is being squeezed out of their party, as the day unfolds.

    The chairmen of PDP, in Imo and Abia states, Austin Nwachukwu and Amah Abraham Nnana, with the party secretary in south-south zone, remains in court, claiming that the PDP has not conducted the required congresses in some states to elect delegates to the planned convention amongst other grievances. While that case is still pending, the PDP got enmeshed in another crisis, between the acting national party chairman, Umar Damagun and the national legal adviser, Kamaldeen Ajibade, SAN, over the right to appoint a counsel to defend the party in the suit filed by those opposed to the convention.

    Read Also: Court restates order for parties not to take any step on PDP 2025 national convention

    The legal adviser contends that by Article 40 of the party’s constitution, no other party officer or organ has the right to appoint a legal counsel to defend the party, without his concurrence. The National Working Committee, without waiting for the court presided over by Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court, Abuja, to determine the conflicting claims between the chairman and the legal adviser, relieved the legal adviser of any right to represent the PDP in the suit.

    There is the chance that the legal adviser may seek to open another battle front with the party, over what he may consider as attempt to whittle down his power. While all that is playing out, the secretary of the party has raised a bombshell capable of truncating the entire plans for the convention. He claimed that his signature was forged on the document, notifying INEC of the planned convention, and has petitioned the Department of State Security (DSS), the Nigeria Police and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), over the claim.

    While PDP has dismissed the impact, and vowed to forge ahead with the convention, we wait to see whether the claim if proved to be true, would affect the veracity of the notice required to be sent to INEC before a convention can be validly held by a political party. While Anyanwu is seeking the prosecution of the party leaders, over the alleged forgery, it is instructive that no party official has come forward to renounce the alleged forgery of the signature of the party secretary.

    Less than four weeks to the date slated for the convention, the court has asked the parties to maintain status quo, pending the determination of the suit. Of note, Justice Omotosho, has promised to determine the substantive suit by the end of October, so the parties would know their fate. If he gives the party the go ahead, to hold the convention, the challenges over party delegates, the alleged forged signature and other issues, would continue to becloud the convention.

    Interestingly, there are diehards in the party who have maintained that the party would survive all the challenges and come out stronger. Apart from the governors of Bauchi and Oyo states, there is the elder statesman Chief Olabode George of Lagos State. There is also the latest alliance between Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim and former Senate President Bukola Saraki, to work together. On the reverse side, recently the governors of Enugu and Bayelsa states have left the party, and their colleague in Taraba, Agbu Kefas, is touted to be on his way out of the party.                                   

    The ADC which the promoters had said would provide the opposition to the APC, when juxtaposed against the indices of potential greatness, so far, is akin to the despondency of Macbeth in the Shakespearean play, of the same title: “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” In that play, Macbeth had made the exclamation on the hopelessness of his life, when he heard that his wife, Lady Macbeth had committed suicide. This column believes that those who believed the hype by the promoters of ADC, may now exhibit such despondency.

    The other party which got some elixir, in the 2023 general election, the Labour Party, has been left high and dry, with an “enemy chairman” in charge of the party. At the last INEC meeting with party chairmen, Barrister Julius Abure, who has fallen out with the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), the former presidential candidate of the party, Peter Obi, and the only party governor, Alex Otti, was ensconced in the chair reserved for Labour Party.

  • Enugu ingests APC

    Enugu ingests APC

    Growing up in Enugu State in the 1970s, the commonest medicine for fever, cold, aches and pain was APC. Every mother had those over-the-counter, white looking tablets, handy in a small jar, at home. Our village dispenser, in charge of the community dispensary at Nwankwo, Ogwofia-Owa, one Romanus Ozobu (God rest his soul), would grind it, and with a little water, force it down our young throats to quench the fever and aches that followed the reckless plays and junkets.    

    That APC meant a combination of Aspirin, Phenacetin, and Caffeine, which is no longer in use. But the APC of my interest today, is the All Progressive Congress, a party formerly derided in the Southeast, as Janjaweed Ideology. Those who supported the party then, were reminded that the medical APC was no longer in use, and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), taunted the party as an expired drug. To propagate APC as an alternative to PDP, in the state, was considered an insalubrious anathema.

    A few ignored the abuses, and continued to support and propagate the party. Today, the governor of Enugu State, Barrister Peter Mbah, and majority members of the PDP at all levels in the state, have joyously ingested APC, and they are looking forward to the party returning them to power in 2027.

    This column which has for the past ten years recommended APC as an alternative to PDP, joyously welcome them to the progressive party. They must inculcate the Igbo saying: “Obialu be onye abiagbu kwe n’eya”.

    In my most recent piece on Governor Peter Mbah barely two months ago, which I christened: “Dilemma of Governor Mbah”, I had given ample reasons why Mbah should move over to APC. I quote extensively: “With the PDP doddering, Governor Peter Mbah who got elected by a controversial razor tin vote advantage in 2023 must be weighing his options, as the race to the 2027 general election dominates the political landscape. Mbah’s challenge is made worse by the fact that the politically conservative Enugu State voters, appears to have shown inflexibility with the recent result of the Enugu South Urban Constituency reordered election.”

    I went further: “Apparently, to the shock of Mbah and his supporters, one Bright Ngene, who originally won the state legislative assembly election in 2023, again won the reordered election after postponements arising from repeated disruptions. To make it more embarrassing for the ruling party in the state, Ngene of the Labour Party, who was sentenced to seven-years imprisonment for a community related dispute, won the election from the prison. It remains to be seen whether he will serve what is remaining of his tenure from the prisons.”

    I also stated: “From the whiplashing the PDP received in the 2023 general election in the state in the hands of the Labour Party (LP) and the recent mud on its face in the Enugu South Urban Constituency reordered election, the PDP on whose platform Mbah was elected is seriously in decline. The PDP which dominated the state like a colossus, making it nigh impossible for any other party to breath in the state must be wondering what happened to her glorious days in the sun.”

    As the new leader of APC in the state, Governor Mbah’s biggest challenge would be how to harmonize the interest of the decampees from the PDP with those of the APC members, which they met on ground. Of course, the temptation would be to hijack most of the available positions, and yield little to the old members of APC. I hope the governor also realizes that he needs all the help he can get, to move those who voted for him in PDP over to the APC.

    It will be poor appreciation of political idiosyncrasies for the governor and his team to think that moving from PDP to APC, automatically means the addition of the voters on both sides to become one. A lot of work needs to be done to convince the PDP voters that APC is not the demonized caricature that they painted it as, prior to this transition. One of the surest way to do this, is by ensuring a peaceful harmonization of contending interests, under the banner of new APC.

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    Those contending against the entrance of Governor Mbah into APC, led by the erstwhile state party chairman, Barrister Ugo Agballa, should not be discarded without giving them a hearing. Now that the tide has turned, may be they would be willing to make peace, if given a chance. While arguing that they be given a fair hearing, this writer urges them to appreciate the enormous advantage the governor brings to the party in the state. Without the combination of forces, there was no chance for APC to win over the state, all by its former self.

    Luckily, Governor Mbah has shown himself worthy of a second term, within two years of his administration. So, he should be encouraged to deliver on the great promises he has set for the state. It would be a great disservice to the state to undermine the giant infrastructural developments he has been pursuing, and so, I urge those opposed to his emergence to give peace a chance. Running to the court would only compound the situation for those accused of anti-party activities, even as they may make the party weaker.

    Again, the state APC needs peace within its rank to deliver a reasonable percentage of vote to the party at the presidential election in 2027. Such delivery would aid the receipt of greater federal interventions in the state. For instance, Governor Mbah’s promise of 1,000 megawatts of electricity through coal needs the support of the federal government to succeed. Since the right over coal, which is a mineral resource, falls within the exclusive legislative list, the governor needs the approval of the federal government to explore it.

    As I wrote earlier this year, in January, in a piece I tiled: “Two Ideas Men”, Governor Mbah and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are men of ideas, and a synchronization of their God-given talents would benefit the state and the country at large. As I wrote back then: “So, when PBAT went to Enugu State, last Saturday, this writer was excited that a knowledgeable president was visiting a knowledgeable governor. Instead of a clash of ideas, there will be a synergy of ideas.”

    While President Tinubu is pushing to deliver $1 trillion national economy, Governor Mbah is working to move the state economy to $30bn. As the PDP flag is lowered for the APC flag, in my beloved Enugu State, we wait to see what further impetus it would wrought to the pace of governance. Congratulations NdiEnugu. Let President Tinubu’s renewed hope agenda join forces with Governor Mbah’s promise of tomorrow in Enugu State.

  • When PENGASSAN sneezes

    When PENGASSAN sneezes

    The former President of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), Peter Esele, while speaking to TVC News last week, on the importance of the quick intervention by the federal government in the trade dispute between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery ironically espoused the grave danger which the recent strike action by PENGASSAN constituted to the national economy.

    In the words of the trade unionist: “You have seen government running in so quickly to address the issues because when PENGASSAN sneezes, we know what that means. Cutting gas supply, cutting oil supply, that is the live wire of Nigeria’s economy.” Implicit in that statement is the fact that PEGASSAN has the power to cripple the Nigerian economy if it wishes. Indeed, the union bared its teeth, and the nation shuddered when it ordered that gas and oil supply to even non-combatants in the dispute be shut down.

    Ordinarily, there are parties to every trade dispute, and in the instant case, it was between DANGOTE Refinery and the members of PENGASSAN. Section 1(2) of the Trade Disputes Act, provides: “In this Part, unless the context otherwise requires – “the dispute” means the trade dispute in question; and “the party” means a party to the dispute.” Clearly, the recent dispute was between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery and yet when PENGASSAN wanted to cut gas supply, it did not restrict its action to the parties is dispute as provided by the law.

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    So, why did PENGASSAN escalate the dispute to affect the supply of gas and crude to other companies and entities not involved in the trade dispute? Of course, PENGASSAN knows that while the right to call a strike is implicit in the Nigerian laws, the legal regime is quite rigorous when followed. Section 4 of the Trade Dispute Act, provides that before a dispute is reported, parties must first attempt settlement, and where they cannot agree, the parties shall within seven days appoint a mediator.

    Section 6 of the Act, provides that where the mediator is unable to settle, the parties shall report to the minister in writing, and the minister, according to section 7, shall appoint a conciliator to effect a settlement. Where the conciliator is unable to settle, section 9 provides, that the minister shall within 14 days refer the matter to the Industrial Arbitration Panel. Section 14 of the Trade Disputes Act, provides that where there is objection to an award by the Tribunal, the dispute shall be referred to the National Industrial Court.

    Section 17 provides for direct reference to the National Industrial Court in certain special cases, and its subsection “a” provides for direct reference where “the dispute is one to which workers employed in any essential service are a party.” On what constitutes essential services, paragraph 2(a) of the first schedule to the Trade Disputes Act, provides: “Any service established, provided or maintained … for, or in connection with, the supply of electricity, power or water, or of fuel of any kind.” 

    Even when one concedes that the Nigeria’s legal regime may be too difficult for a trade union to follow, which is why in every settlement, a trade union extracts that no member should be punished for participation in a strike, it does not imply that a union should call a strike at the drop of hat, just because if the union sneezes, the nation will catch cold. A trade union which possess such enormous power to cripple a national economy should use it sparingly.

    Indeed, while this column is peremptorily sympathetic to trade unions which ordinarily are weaker when in contest with the state, it is extremely dangerous that a trade union could be imbued with such power as exhibited as PENGASSAN. Before a union calls a strike that has the capacity to cripple the nation, it must diligently follow due process. It cannot call out Dangote Refinery for allegedly sacking its members without due process and then rely on an illegal process to bring the alleged offender and even non-offenders to account.

    The way forward is for government to insist that trade unions should fully democratise and be accountable to its members. Of course, it won’t come without a fight from the officials, who have been benefiting from the current system. The trade unions must understand that where they are dealing with private companies, they wont have the luxury of eating their cake, and still have it in the fridge. The imbroglio with Dangote should be a lesson that the era of trade unions in the oil industry holding everyone to ransom may be over.

    PENGASSAN, must realise that Dangote Refinery is different from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which the government officials and the workers treat as cash-cow for themselves, rather than a business entity for the general shareholders. Members of PENGASSAN in NNPC, and its several affiliates could afford to wrestle their companies to ground knowing that those who ordinarily should ask questions about the financial health of the government owned companies, are in bed with them, jointly raping the companies.

    How on earth would the corrupt ministry officials raise any eyebrow about NNPC and its affiliates, when they are in cahoots in with the unions in taking what does not belong to them? Nigerians know that the NNPC and its affiliates run opaque systems and so when the trade unions use their power to extort their own share of the proverbial national cake, they can get away with it. But the Dangote Refinery is a different ball game and the prime mover, Aliko Dangote is a boardroom shark, whose driving force is the financial bottom line.

    As they would have realized, they just goaded their now former members to a cul-de-sac. The pyrrhic victory which they achieved in getting Dangote to agree to send the reabsorbed workers to its sister companies, namely the Sugar and Cement companies, automatically makes the reabsorbed workers, non-members of PENGASSAN. We wait to see how the unions in the oil industries would protect their technically estranged members who no longer belong to their unions, when the dragon turns them to ‘suya’ for lunch.

    There is no reason why all oil workers should be members of either PENGASSAN or NUPENG, as that should apply to other trade unions. Section 3(1) provides: “An application for the registration of a trade union shall be made to the registrar in the prescribed form and shall be signed by (a) in the case of a trade union of workers, by at least fifty members of the union.” Also, person with the resources to set up refinery should get similar encouragement as Aliko Dangote got, to open shop. Once monopoly is killed, within the unions and the industries, Nigerians will breath freely.

  • Nigeria at crossroads

    Nigeria at crossroads

    At 65 years of Independence, Nigerians, surely have a tough decision to make. Will the majority go on with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s (PBAT) administration’s far-reaching reforms or will they turn to those making a swansong of the challenges associated with the reforms? Historically, reformers like Mikhail Gorbachev of Soviet Union paid a huge price for his Perestroika and Glasnost. Will PBAT pay the price for being a reformer or will he survive?

    Nigeria’s economic challenges have been systemic, ranging from inflation, import dependency, foreign exchange crisis, erosion of the value of the local currency, food insecurity, hunger, to abject poverty of the majority of the citizens. Amidst these economic headwinds, Nigerians were literally subsidizing the fuel imports of her neighbours. To compound the situation, her rapacious elites were trading on her currency to the detriment of businesses and other genuine economic activities.

    The implication was that while the few elites connected to the seat of power, were making millions by getting direct foreign currency allocations from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and trading on it, those engaged in genuine economic activities were substantially at the mercy of the ravenous economic saboteurs. The most impactful on the country was sourcing foreign exchange for the importation of fuel, as the three major refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna were comatose.

    The way out for the immediate past regime, was printing more money by the CBN, euphemistically referred by government officials, as ‘ways and means’. The challenge of sourcing foreign exchange to import fuel was further compounded by the opacity and massive corruption of the process. Nigeria experienced all manner of racketeering, as many so-called fuel importers presented fake documents for non-existent imports, and with the connivance of corrupt state officials got paid humongous sums to the detriment of the already bleeding foreign exchange reserves.

    Other businesses, like foreign airline operators, who after collecting the cost of tickets in local currency could not buy foreign exchange at the official foreign exchange rate to repatriate their earnings, either departed the country, or took matters into their own hands. Those that stayed, charged much higher for tickets sold in Nigeria, when compared to prices for similar tickets in neighbouring countries. Travels for students, businessmen and holiday makers became so excruciating that Nigerians went to neighbouring countries to connect Europe and America at huge costs.

    Many multi-national manufacturing companies, finding it difficult to access foreign exchange to import needed raw materials, closed shop, and moved to more economically stable countries. As unemployment skyrocketed, and more valueless money chased fewer goods, inflation soared into triple digits, and the national economy was on a tailspin. The impact on food inflation was so devastating that basic essential commodities, some of which were import dependent, were priced out of the reach of the ordinary Nigerians and the country was almost imploding.

    The insecurity in parts of the country further drove food prices to a dangerous level. With the north-central states of Benue and Plateau, major food baskets of the country overrun by murderous herdsmen, Nigeria was on the throes of asphyxiation. While the north-central was on the boil, farmlands further north were the grains come from, were in the grips of internecine war, waged by Boko Haram and the so-called bandits. While Boko Haram elements were fighting for their lives in northeast, the bandits were claiming territories in northwest.

    On assumption of office in May, 2023, the PBAT administration decided to confront the twin challenge of fuel subsidy and foreign exchange racketeering. The immediate impact was a runaway inflation and further depreciation of the official rate of the Naira, which had been artificially buoyed over the years by the CBN. Many commentators viewed the twin steps as bold, while some considered it reckless. Those who supported the twin policy of the administration argued that it was the only way to bring sanity to the national economy.

    Initially, the side effects of the twin policy were so devastating, as the nation witnessed galloping inflation, especially food inflation that even the core supporters of the administration doubted the wisdom of the policies. But the administration stayed course, and presently while Naira is gaining value by the day, inflation is tending downwards. The removal of the subsidy also made the nation buoyant enough to increase the minimum wage and for sub-nationals to have money to engage in infrastructural projects.

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    The implicit deregulation of the price of fuel has seen the price of that national economic driver now determined by marketers. Recently, the price of fuel has been moving up and down without Nigerians and especially labour unions pointing fingers and threatening the industrial peace of the country. Luckily for the Tinubu administration and indeed for Nigerians, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals came on stream to fill the huge gap left by the bumbling and incompetent Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL).

    But at the cusp of Nigeria’s 65th anniversary, the apparent redundancy that private sector-led Dangote has made of the two major industrial unions hegemons in the oil sector, NUPENG and PENGASSAN, rears its ugly or beautiful head, depending on which side, the commentator belongs. The two industrial unions were made nationally popular during the war for democracy in Nigeria, after the annulment of June 12 general election, which Chief M.K.O Abiola won, particularly under the leadership of late Chief Frank Kokori of NUPENG.

    But like NNPCL, the two unions appear to have fallen into disuse with the private sector dominating the downstream oil sector. Considering the alleged underhand tactics of the leaders of the union to make themselves wealthy at a huge price to ordinary Nigerians, the two unions have a herculean task to convince Nigerians that their ongoing tango with Dangote Refinery is not for private gain. Unfortunately for them, their relatively recent antecedent with respect to the federal government’s sale and repurchase of the three earlier named refineries makes them complicit in the economic sabotage of the oil industry in recent decades.

    While it would be unfair for Dangote Refinery to deny workers their rights under section 40 of the 1999 constitution (as amended), to belong to Trade Unions; the arbitrary, unconscionable and buccaneer trade practices of NUPENG and PENGASSAN, cannot cohabit with private capital, without their internal reforms. Of note, most of their officials live like oil Sheiks, from illegal dues, and the fallout of those practices, is on the ordinary Nigerians. As the country celebrate her anniversary, this column wonders which way Nigerians will go?

    Will Nigerians follow through with the Tinubu reforms, or will they fall for the antics of the rapacious elites mocking the ordinary citizens with their new swan song of ‘I am hungry’, when the humongous wealth the cheerleaders display, are far beyond what they could have gotten from their honest labour?

  • Natasha’s dilemma

    Natasha’s dilemma

    Distinguished Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan is back in the news after a six-month hiatus. The delectable beauty who represents Kogi Central in the senate was suspended for six months, in March, by the Senate Committee on Ethics, Privileges and Public Petitions after she refused to submit to the committee’s summons to answer allegations of breaching the privileges of her colleagues. She had refused to go to her assigned seat, before speaking, and later made disparaging statements about the senate leadership on radio and television. Arguing that the six months has elapsed, Natasha wrote to the senate clerk that she would resume plenary.

    The clerk told her that she cannot resume because the dispute over her suspension is sub judice, since she took the senate to court, arguing that it lacked the power to suspend her. The Honourable Justice Binta Nyako of the Federal High Court had held that while the senate has powers to discipline its members, six months was a long time to deny a constituency representation in the senate chambers. The court ordered the distinguished senator to apologize and pay a fine of N5million for ignoring a gag order not to discuss the matter in public while the case was in court.

    Senator Natasha went on appeal against parts of the judgment since the High Court did not hold that her suspension was illegal, which is what she wanted. The defendants also cross-appealed, contending the powers of the senate to self-regulate its members. With the matter pending on appeal, the senate leadership prompted the clerk to reply Senator Natasha that parties would have to wait for the courts to determine the dispute first. The further explanation by the clerk that the decision about her return will be made by the senate leadership may not change the current position of the senate.

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    Of course, what they are telling Natasha is that you cannot be in court and still seek what they consider an administrative remedy. On her part, the suspended senator has vowed to resume plenary regardless of the decision of the senate and its administrative organs. This writer wonders how Natasha would carry out her threats. Would she bring in her supporters to enforce her return and keep vigil to ensure she stays and attends senate plenaries?

    If she takes the matter into her hands or allow her supporters to do so, the chances are that she may again be accused of running afoul of the senate rules and the consequences could be another round of brouhaha. It is interesting that Natasha appears determined to be recalled on her own terms, that is, keeping the cases in court and refusing to apologize and return to the senate to continue her legislative duties.

    That would be viewed by her supporters as giving the senate a bloody nose, and she ought to know that the leadership would not easily yield to that. If her recall is left for the courts to determine, the chances are that it may take a pretty long time to come. Even with the best effort of her lawyers, it will take some months before the Court of Appeal determines the appeal and cross-appeal, and after that, any of the party who loses may proceed to the Supreme Court for the final determination of the controversy.

    Perhaps, Natasha was hoping that the controversy would bring down the senate president, Senator Godswill Akpabio, from his exalted position. If that had happened, as many of Natasha’s supporters had wished, the senator would have been recalled back to the red chamber without much ado. But so far, the senate president has survived, and with the maintenance of strong legislative collaboration with the executive arm of government, in passing critical executive bills, bringing down Akpabio, won’t be an easy task at all.

    As I wrote in March, with respect to this saga, which I titled: Trial of Senator Natasha, the distinguished senator has shown herself a fearless warrior, but unfortunately tactless. The allegations of sexual harassment which she made against the senate president did not carry much hurricane, because it was in the midst of her missteps in the red chamber. Showing herself a rookie, she refused a simple senate rule that a senator can only be recognized to speak from his/her assigned seat.

    Her claim in the red chambers of victimization by the senate president, while she refused the entreaties of her colleagues to move to her newly assigned seat, robbed off on her, as an indecorous person. All the complaints she made that day went to no issue, as she was not properly recognized to speak. Her rantings in front her fellow senators and the cameras, while making her notorious amongst social media netizens, gave her out as cantankerous, to the discerning public.

    Again her refusal to appear before the Senate Committee on Ethics, after she was appropriately invited, robbed her of the claim of a breach of her fundamental rights. She failed to realize that snubbing that committee amounted to desecrating the integrity of the entire senate. If she was properly guided, she should have appeared to make her case, and that would give her the locus to challenge their findings. She thought that her case against senate president, equates to contention with the entire senate.

    This writer does not agree with those who contend that the senate or any legislative assembly should not have the powers to discipline her members. Without such power, the senate or indeed any such legislative assembly would be a rancorous market place. If every senator should have the right to throw tantrums and engage in riotous conduct, without internal mechanism for review and punishment, the legislative assembly would be a riotous assembly. What needs to be done is to make the committee on ethics and the review process respectful and fair.

    As a body, the senate or any other legislative assembly should have settled precedents or codes for members, with accompanying consequences for disobedience by members. When a member breaches a code, he/she should know the likely consequences, if found culpable by a body of colleagues entrusted with the power of review. The senate or such other legislative assembly should as a body have a way of ensuring that the committee entrusted with the responsibility to discipline members always act responsibly.

    To end the present imbroglio with the senate, the Kogi senator, should seek counsel from her older colleagues. Her present counsellors are more of pubic activists, without requisite experience, on how to navigate the shark-infested legislative waters, and they have not brought her requisite remedy. Since their tactics is not working, she should try other measures, unless she does not care whether she returns to the red chambers or not, as soon as possible. At least, if not for herself, she should consider the interest of her constituency.

  • Climbing opposition bus

    Climbing opposition bus

    Few weeks ago, the former governor of Kaduna State, the petit Mallam Nasir El Rufai, inadvertently dramatized the unpreparedness of the opposition claiming to ready to oust President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) at the next general election in 2027. El Rufai, scrambled and kicked as some roughnecks helped him clamber onto an open lorry so he can speak at a campaign stop. His preferred candidate expectedly lost woefully at the by-election.

    What caught my eye was the complete lack of preparedness by the campaigners, otherwise why didn’t they provide a means for El Rufai to climb the lorry with some modicum of dignity. The video of the incident showed El Rufai struggling like a bus conductor being helped onto the back of a truck with all the drama associated with it. For this column, what transpired showed how disorganized the opposition is; yet they won’t stop claiming their determination to win in 2027.

    But as I write this piece, the so-called coalition of opposition has not yet determined under which party to contest the next general election. While El Rufai is claiming to be a member of the Social Democratic Party, (SDP), he campaigned for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the last by-election. Meanwhile leaders of SDP in Kaduna State have claimed that El Rufai is not a registered member of the party in the state. Also, national leaders of the party have said that El Rufai is an imposter as far as membership of the party is concerned.

    Despite this confusion, El Rufai still claims boldly that the coalition is ready and prepared to oust the All Progressive Congress (APC). But what afflicts El Rufai, is also true of the other major opposition figures. Again, as I write, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the last general election, former governor, Peter Obi (Okwute), operates in a state of flux as far as his membership of a political party is concerned. There is no certainty which party Obi belongs to.

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    While he has not formerly resigned from LP, the faction led by Nenadi Usman, which is loyal to him is locked in a mortal battle with the other, headed by Julius Abure for recognition from INEC. Yet, there is a significant third faction, led by Lamidi Apapa, which claims to be the authentic leadership of the party. At the last by-election, Obi campaigned for the candidate of ADC in Onitsha, Anambra State who failed woefully at the polls.

    With respect to the upcoming off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State, no one knows with certainty which party, the former governor is campaigning for, between ADC and LP. Obi, an indisputable gentleman, is finding it difficult to rein in the combatants in LP, and that has weakened his base. Many have accused Obi of lacking the capacity to fight the inevitable battles associated with partisan politics in a developing democracy like ours.

    The loquacious former actor, recently called to the Nigerian Bar, Kenneth Okonkwo, who spoke for Obi during the last general election, has left Obi and LP, because the former presidential candidate has not shown the grit to determine the boat he will be sailing with full force. Okonkwo, appears to know better than Obi, that no one will serve him the candidacy of a major political party, just because he is a nice guy.

    What is true of El Rufai and Peter Obi is also true of the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, a former presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While he made a big drama of leaving the PDP, he has been mum about which party he has moved to. He is content at being touted as the big masquerade, behind the ADC, who engineered the forceful takeover of the party leadership, by former senate president, David Mark, and former governor of Osun, Rauf Aregbesola, as chairman and secretary respectively.

    Atiku, and his fellow coalitionists or ‘collisionists’ (apologies to PBAT), are clearly unsure which boat to use for the sailing expedition. That explains why El Rufai, initially moved to SDP to await Atiku and company. But when it dawned on them that SDP may not be easily manipulated, they tried to form a new party, the All Democratic Alliance, (ADA), whose emoji, of Atiku, Obi, and others, dressed as dancing females went viral (Ada is a name for a female in Igbo). But unsure that ADA will scale through the hurdle of registration, they demurred. Now that ADA has been granted provincial approval, by INEC, will they be aroused again?

    Meanwhile, some members of ADC are in court over the constitutionality of the takeover by the new executive which INEC recently recognized. On his part, Aregbesola, foisted as the party secretary has been upbeat that his new party will beat the APC and PDP hands down in the off-cycle Osun governorship election due later in 2026. How he intends to fend off the campaign against him, that he is a traitor, with the far-reaching consequences of such a polish in southwest, remains to be seen.

    The latest entrant into the labyrinth of presidential aspirants is former president, Goodluck Jonathan. While he has not confirmed his interest, there are claims that he is consulting widely. Recently, he went to the Hill Top mansion of the former military president, Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB), perhaps to consult him. His aides have also aggressively argued that he is not constitutionally barred from contesting, despite the provisions of section 137(3), of the 1999 constitution (as amended). That section was enacted to stop the likes of Jonathan, from contesting the presidential election again.

    Section 137 (3), provides that “a person who was sworn in as president to complete the term for which another person was elected as president shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term”. Former president, Jonathan is such a person, since after completing the term of office of late president, Umaru Yar’Adua, he was elected to such office in 2011. When Jonathan contested the 2015 presidential election, which he lost to President Muhammadu Buhari, that amendment made in 2017, was not yet in place.

    So, the only issue which will be open to the courts to determine, should Jonathan run, is whether, the law contemplated a retroactive effect. While in jurisprudence, there is the general rule against retroactive legislation, or the principle of non-retroactivity, the courts may be minded to hear arguments on the doctrine of mischief rule. Mischief rule, allows a court to look at the mischief which a law was designed to remedy, rather than the literal wording of a legislation. What baffles this writer is how in such state of unpreparedness, the opposition is assiduously claiming to be ready to oust PBAT in 2027. Perhaps, they are merely waiting to spread lies and chaos, when they inevitably lose at the polls.