Category: Tuesday

  • Lies against Enugu

    A relation, Johnny Okafor, who returned home during the Christmas break from the United States of America (USA), was adamant that Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State lives a lie when he says “Enugu state is in the hands of God.” Johnny argued that such a beguiling statement by Ugwuanyi is to deceive those who voted for him in 2015, and to encourage them to gullibly vote for him in 2019, even when he has underperformed.

    He maintains that Enugu State is in the hands of Governor Ugwuanyi and so he should bear responsibility for the shortcomings of his tenure. This trait he argued, is common amongst politicians in Nigeria, who like to attribute their maladministration to forces beyond their control. In fairness to Ugwuanyi, many people in the state see him as religious and wherever he goes, quite a number join him in dance as they yell: gburugburu, to which he answers, “Enugu State is in the hands of God.”

    As usual, the break afforded me an opportunity to gain an overview of happenings in the state. One major dissatisfied group are the owed pensioners in the state. Those who worked in the Library Board are reportedly owed about 81 months arrears of pension as at December 2018; and they are likely to agree with the alternative view that at least their pension arrears are in the hands of the state government. The same with those who worked in the water corporation allegedly owed 86 month arrears of pension. Also mourning during the Christmas break despite all the federal bailout funds are pensioners of Daily Star and the Arts Council.

    In my home town of Ogwofia Owa, a group which prides itself as Ogwofia Owa Support Group coordinated by one Lawrence Okafor has been up and about campaigning for the re-election of Ugwuanyi. When I confronted some of their promoters, they claimed that the governor deserves a second term based on his performance in the current term. Yet, on the side, the same group is working hard to mobilize resources from indigenes, to repair the old Native Authority (NA) road that passed through my village and the Ugwu Nwankwo road.

    While commending the group for standing in the gap for a failed Ezeagu Local Government Council, I am shocked at their determination to work for the re-election of a party that has taken our people for granted in the past 20 years. It is shocking that they cannot see the incongruity of campaigning for a party whose officials in government, only come to our town to dance during campaigns, while the people are abandoned as soon as elections are over.

    Again, I also pestered those who like to describe themselves as friends of Hon Chima Obieze (the House of Assembly representative for Ezeagu), but who only gain access to him as friends when he needs their votes, to show me one piece of beneficial legislation Obieze has championed since 2015. Alternatively, I asked them to show one infrastructure he has attracted to our community, whether as a constituency project or indirectly from the local or state government.

    From reliable source, I am informed that the closest to infrastructural development the lad had embarked on in the nearly four years he represented my people in the state assembly, is an expensive private residence he built for himself. An acolyte of the equally self-serving deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, Obieze’s best legacy as a legislator will be his good looks, and occasional grandstanding as a friend of his much abused mates, the beleaguered youths of the state, many of whom only glorify in associating with somebody in government.

    Furthermore, I consider it a big shame that the best Governor Ugwuanyi could offer the old Imezi Owa in his government is a senior special assistant (SSA). Mrs Ikpeama, the current SSA, boldly advertises her position with a big bill board asking our people to re-elect Governor Ugwuanyi. In flagrant disrespect for the people, the signboard stands on a dilapidated road, much older and strategic than its contemporaries that have been tarred in other communities. The original road, maintained by the Native Authority in the 1930/40s has been abandoned by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led governments, which have held Enugu State hostage for nearly 20 years.

    So, when Mrs Ikpeama joyously declares on the said bill board that the old town, now made up of five autonomous communities, should re-elect gburugburu, I wonder what she advertises as the developmental projects she attracted to the communities. Or is she and the rest of other representatives in the government of Governor Ugwuanyi, merely in power for the sake of power? Well, perhaps they consider the people inconsequential in their scheming for another term.

    But if the truth be told, the old Imezi Owa made up of Ogwofia Owa and other autonomous communities deserve accountability from the state government, and those who have been feeding fat in their name as their representatives at various cadres. I was home throughout the Christmas period, and I never sighted or heard about any form of infrastructural development in the town. Yet, those who glorify themselves as PDP sympathizers would not stop insulting our sense of proportion, with their grandiose claim that PDP is the best thing that has happened to Ndigbo.

    A claim not backed by facts. Well, perhaps backed by emotions. As I drove through the Onitsha-Enugu expressway on my way from Lagos, I was muttering that those stringently opposed to the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari will use the state of the road to castigate any sympathizer for the All Progressive Congress (APC) in Igbo land. After Onitsha going to Awka, the road is in a terrible state, and that neglect resurfaces after leaving Awka.

    But shortly after, towards the 9th Mile, I busted into a well asphalted road, with a sign conspicuously advertising sukuk fund for the repair. I passed through that stretch many times during the holidays, and what kept coming to my mind is the potential that President Buhari’s government of sincere spending on public infrastructure portends for Ndigbo. That road had been patched a few times in the 16 years PDP was in power, but what the present government did is to rebuild the stretch that I refer to.

    Such is the contradiction between facts and public perception of the government of President Buhari, by majority of Ndigbo. While the majority nurse nostalgic feeling about the immediate past regime of Goodluck Jonathan, an unemotional comparison between the two regimes shows that truly Buhari has done more for Ndigbo with less resources. Governor Ugwuanyi and his party men are riding on that ill-fated sentiment, and unless the APC gets sagacious to separate facts from fiction, PDP may run away with victory in the zone.

  • The war on Boko Haram comes to the newsroom

    It was as unusual for that time of year as it was ominous, the December 31, 2018, warning, from the Nigeria Army high command, that it would begin “to monitor and take actions against masterminds of subversive propagandists for their false publications designed to dampen the morale of troops on the war fronts.”

    Issued by the Army’s Director of Public Relations, Brig.-Gen Sani Usman, the statement spoke of “attempts to politicise and derail the ongoing fight against terrorism and insurgency” by “disgruntled elements” recycling video clips and old interviews of “disgruntled soldiers,” as well as inaccurate reports on the ongoing operations “to create sense of insecurity in the country.”

    The statement evoked the dark days of the loathsome goggled dictator, General Sani Abacha, or from the more distant but no less frightful era of Decree Four of the Dour Duo of General Muhammadu Buhari and Brigadier Tunde Idiagbon, with the difference that the military were a law unto themselves back then. Now, in a democratic dispensation under which power is vested in elected officials, the military take their instructions from the civil authority.

    The line is somewhat blurred when the civil authority has as its head a retired army general, or where the Minister of Defence is also a retired general. But the principle is well established:  Under our Constitution, the military has no independent power. Even when performing its assigned duties, it is subject to legislative oversight.

    It was somewhat reassuring then, that later in the statement under reference, Usman retreated from this disquieting proposition and warned that the law would take its course against those behind “concerted efforts to ridicule the efforts of the military in ensuring peace and security of the country.”

    The law is the final arbiter. Let every aggrieved party submit to its jurisdiction and its reasoned pronouncements.

    But any hope that the Army would follow the path of law rather than resort to self-help to settle its claim against unnamed “detractors” has proved illusory.

    Barely a week after Usman’s warning, armed soldiers raided the offices of Daily Trust newspaper in Abuja and Maiduguri, Borno State. According to the online newspaper Premium Times, the soldiers, backed by operatives of the Department of State  Services (DSS) and the Civil Defence Corps, sealed off the Daily Trust’s regional office in Maiduguri and arrested its regional editor, Uthman Abubakar, and one of the paper’s reporters, Ibrahim Sawab.

    In Abuja, more than two dozen armed soldiers in five pick-up trucks sealed off the main office of the paper in the Utako District and seized computers and other items, said Premium Times, citing eyewitness accounts. The military authorities then followed up with yet another raid, on the newspaper’s Lagos offices.

    The Maiduguri, Abuja and Lagos raids were carried out hours after Daily Trust published a news story detailing the military’s preparations for a massive operation to retake Baga and the neighbouring towns of Doron-Baga, Kross Kawwa, Bunduran, Kekeno and Kukawa in Borno State that a faction of Boko Haram affiliated to the Islamic State in West Africa Province had overrun some two weeks earlier, according to Daily Trust.

    These raids call to mind the time when military president Ibrahim Babangida closed down some of the nation’s leading newspapers for asking hard questions and reporting the inconvenient truths about his duplicitous transition programme.

    Unlike the publications that had moved Babangida to shut down major media houses, the Daily Trust’s story violates a cardinal principle of journalism and news reporting.

    In times of war –and the nation is at war, according to the best authorities – you cannot publish information on the location or movement of troops of the national army. Doing so can put their lives at risk and their mission in danger.  Loose lips, it has been said, sink ships.  Even if the national audience has a right to know, the enemy certainly has no such right.

    The Trust’s publication, it is necessary to insist, was unprofessional through and through.

    But the military’s brusque show of force against an unarmed quarry was unnecessary. A police search with a warrant, followed by prosecution by the appropriate authorities for any established breach of the law, would have served the purpose the Army said it set out to achieve just as effectively, and much more reassuringly.

    Here, it is instructive to recall an incident from the Gulf War.

    While reporting for the Fox News Channel from Iraq in 2003, the excitable Geraldo Rivera, who was a fine reporter before he morphed into a showboat and a tabloid character, broadcast a report that virtually gave away the position and movement of the invading U. S. troops he was embedded with.

    The publication consisted of nothing more elaborate than a map Rivera drew in the desert sand indicating, on camera, the location of the troops, and the likely route of their advance.

    The American military authorities lifted his accreditation immediately, abridging his bragging rights to the status of a war correspondent. In another clime, Rivera probably would been charged with lending aid and comfort to the enemy, and prosecuted. Any other recourse would have been lawless.

    The Nigerian military are waging a war of resistance against fanatical, well-equipped forces arrayed in the country’s northern fringes and along its open international borders stretching across three countries – barbarous forces that have no respect whatsoever for human life. It is not surprising that they would bristle at criticism, whether it is coming from Nigeria or outside, and that they would consider it unhelpful.

    Sadly, the fight against the Boko Haram and its confederates has tended to be perceived hitherto as a matter between the armed forces and Boko Haram. It is a national assignment. Nothing less than the future of Nigeria is at stake in the war.  Yet, no sacrifice has been demanded of the national population. Maybe that is why the public hardly feels involved, except those who have experienced first-hand the war’s depredations.

    This failure of mobilisation must not endure.

    Publication of classified material can undermine the morale of troops just as military raids on media houses can undermine support for the war effort from critical sections of the populace. Everything must be done to avert both.

    The media will have to engage in self-censorship in matters relating to the war.  Journalists do this on a far wider scale than is generally realised. From an abundance of caution, they publish only a fraction of the material they gather or stumble upon.  That is what the present situation calls for.

    Senior editors will have to bring their experience and expertise to bear on the processing of material that touches on national security.

    The military authorities should be more engaging. They should cultivate editors and the leading commentators, give them background briefings, and seek their cooperation in the management of sensitive information. I am thinking of the ‘D-Notice’ system in the UK, under which the authorities voluntarily supply classified information to the media, with the caveat that it is for their information only, not for publication.

    That system is of course open to abuse. It can be used to block publication of material obtained from independent sources.  But it is rarely used in such a manner. It helps build trust.

    Also as a way of building trust, the military should conduct at least a weekly press briefing on the war effort, with ample opportunities for reporters to ask questions. Weekly bulletins on the war effort will also help. Meanwhile, the military should vacate Daily Trust’s premises and return all the equipment it carted away during the raids.

    The war against Boko Haram is among other things a contest for the heart and minds of the Nigerian public. The military authorities must wage this aspect of the war with professionalism.

     

    Leave of Absence

    This column is taking a long leave of absence, starting next week.

    I thank its teeming followers who have kept faith with it over the decades, and I look forward to resuming our communing in due course.

  • Budget, minimum wage and other matters

    Considering that the current budget cycle terminates in June – by which time a new administration is expected to have been in place – a friend had casually sought my opinion on the portents of Budget 2019. With the electoral season already overshadowing every other matter of governance, why not – he had reasoned – spare the country of the potential recriminations over a budget that seems more like an article of faith than a practical working document?

    His argument was simple: this out-going assembly will neither have the presence of mind to do a thorough job on the proposals nor could they be trusted not to weaponise the sacred document.

    More troubling – he said – are the parameters of Budget 2019 as enunciated by the executive. To  my friend, a N8.73 trillion expenditure outlay – a figure N400 billion lower than the 2018 budget – might seem modest given the circumstance in which the nation has found itself. That however is as far as things go. All other things from the parameters of the budget to the assumptions that underlie them are merely an explication of the age-long wishes and fantasies that have made the annual exercise a beautiful farce!

    I understood his point – or tried to – our only point of divergence being his conclusion that Budget 2019 may well be Dead Before Arrival (DBA)!Not necessarily – I had argued for as sure as hell, the recurrent expenses will be fully executed in addition to those invisible items best described as pork.

    Overall, I agreed that the omens are not good. A budget benchmark of $60 per barrel at this time? Or worse – an oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day – and wait for it – a projected GDP growth rate of 3.01% on our antediluvian infrastructure at a time of falling oil prices?

    A look at the global picture will certainly help to put things in better context. Barely two weeks to the budget presentation, the tiny Arab country of Qatar, announced its decision to end its 57 years of membership of the oil producing cartel – the Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) this month.That the announcement was not considered earth-shaking is probably on account of the fact that the country ranks 11th on the producer cartel with output at 600,000 barrels of oil per day, a mere six percentof the cartel’s output. By the way, Saudi Arabia, its arch-enemy which only in June 2017imposed an economic blockade on it has since hit record of 11 million bpd output. What that exit means in a world where one man called Donald Trump not only seeks to make America great at everyone’s expense but who in his self-assigned role of global disrupter-in-chief has long signalled that the power of OPEC is gone for good can only be imagined. In other words, the days of the producer cartel are numbered.  And this, soon after global oil prices began the latest downward spiral. The development should be troubling enough for our policy makers.

    Price is however one of the two legs of the budget equation; the other, production is just as problematic. Only last year, production is said to have averaged 1.9 million  barrels per day– which in our current circumstances seems just fine. Now, the government thinks that it can – by some magic – ramp up production by 400,000 barrels a day. Soon, it will be time to summon citizens to do what they do when faced with situations that are predictable: pray, only to be required to pray more when the projects set out in the budget are undeliverable!

    But then, the shape of Budget 2019 and how to fund it would seem the least of our troubles. Not with labour spoiling for a long-drawn battle over the minimum wage. Interestingly, labour, employers and government actually agree that the current minimum wage is slave wage. The knotty problem is what to pay – and if you like – the sustainability of what is on offer. We have certainly seen enough of the troubling statistics about the implications of paying the new proposal on the treasuries of states. However, in an environment where governors are known to draw hundreds of millions of naira in security votes, a convincing argument on how a worker can survive on less than $80 a month is yet to be made.

    That is far from denying the reality of the challenge that will be posed by the adoption of the new wage structure. As I noted on the subject on short while ago, the lessons of the last eight years should be clear enough: it is one thing is to have a minimum wage on paper; the ability to pay is another matter. To this, we may add the inflationary spirals that will surely be generated considering that majority of Nigerians are not wage earning, the impact on the private sector already reeling from the terrible effects of  inclement policies – all of these in a country where productivity is at a nadir.

    Much as I hate to say this at this time, the reality is that states are simply in no position to fund any appreciable increases in wage bills without substantial adjustments to the revenue allocation formula! Why our national lawmakers have not thought about this continues to beat me! By the way, the last time I checked, the piggy bank – Excess Crude has been depleted which means that the era of the federal government playing the Santa Claus may well be over too!

    The big elephant in the room however is fuel subsidy. Whereas most Nigerians would consider it tolerable, the recurring N305 billion voted to appease the god of petrol subsidy remains one slow killer that Nigeria should no longer tolerate – not in 2019 or ever after!

    Here is what President Muhammadu Buhari said of the N305 billion earmarked for the subsidy which he called under-recovery in his budget presentation: “In a period of economic challenges where purchasing power is weak, we must reduce some of the burden on Nigerians”.

    Really?I agree on the need to lighten some of the current burdens that Nigerians are forced to carry. Fuel subsidy is unfortunately one of the needless burdens forced on the treasury. In any event, where is the plan to bring the annual haemorrhage to an end – now that Dangote Refineries will no longer be coming on stream until 2022?

  • An evening with Shagari

    “If you choose to head an article ‘An Inquiry into the Conditions of Mycenaean Civilization in the Heroic Epoch with Special Reference to the Economic and Domestic Functions of Women Before and After the Conjectural Date of the Argive Expedition against Troy,’” the British critic and philosopher GK Chesterton once wrote, “you have no right to complain if a newspaper alters it to ‘How Helen did the Housekeeping.’”

    The Helen here, in case you are wondering, is Helen of Troy.

    Former President Shehu Shagari must be wishing that he had come across this piece of advice before he wrote his paper for the Abuja conference on Federalism and Nation-Building in Nigeria, in late January, 1993.   The title of the paper is nothing nearly as abstruse as and pedantic as the one manufactured by Chesterton.  Indeed, it is a model of clarity.

    “The Power and Limitation of the Executive and the Legislature in the Presidential System of Government: A Personal Experience” is surely an unexceptionable title for a conference paper.  But by the time the headline writers were finished with it, Shagari must have felt an even greater sense of betrayal than he did when the soldiers picked him up ten years earlier, on the night of December 31, 1983, at Abuja, and told him the game was up.

    “Why I failed, by Shagari,” was the banner headline in virtually all the newspapers the day after his speech.  From that headline, nobody could have known that the address had been greeted with a prolonged standing ovation.

    The best way of coping with an after-dinner speech, it has been said, is to give the speech yourself.  That way, you are guaranteed not to fall asleep even if everyone else does, as is most likely to be the case.  But there was not the slightest indication of somnolence among the more than 200 people who listened to the speech at the Banquet Hall of the Abuja Sheraton and Towers.

    Shagari was wearing a white embroidered baban riga with his trademark one-gallon cap tilted backwards from the skull at an obtuse angle.  He is perhaps the only major figure who still wears a cap of such dimensions.  Former Plateau State Governor Solomon Lar used to sport a two-gallon variety of the cap, but he has now replaced it with a much more modest purple fez, and you might mistake him for former Imo State Governor Sam Mbakwe without the rambunctiousness unless you looked very carefully,

    On this night, Shagari was sprightly as usual.  His voice was a little strained from a harmattan-induced cold, but it was resonant and penetrating.  The forum presented him with the first opportunity since his ouster to explain the constraints under which his Administration had labored, and to put his leadership  in the proper perspective.  He clearly relished the chance and was determined to make the most of it.

    The charge of “ineptitude” has followed him everywhere like a shadow. Even ten years after he was ousted, no reference in the media to him or his Administration is complete unless it is prefaced with the term “inept.”  Right from the opening paragraph of the 14-page speech, Shagari sought to contest that evaluation.

    The checks and balances in the 1979 Constitution, he began, rendered the president helpless in many circumstances.  But no such checks and balances were prescribed for the legislature which, enjoying enormous powers but lacking any executive responsibility, became some kind of Frankenstein (sic) “which tended to destroy what it could not create.”

    His problems, Shagari continued, had begun even before the National Assembly had commenced sitting.  Word had reached him that “the so-called Progressive Alliance” was planning to take over “absolute control” of the legislature where the NPN was the single largest party.  By postponing the Inauguration of the Assembly and entering into a pact with the NPP, he frustrated the designs of the plotters.

    Even so, Shagari said, legislators engaged in all kinds of blackmail to win favours for themselves.  They even went as far as to purchase an airplane for the Senate President without the consent of the Executive Branch.  The so-called Progressives, aforementioned, thwarted government plans and programmes at every opportunity.  In fact, but for the Presidential system which made that kind of thing impossible, the combined Opposition would have voted the President out of office.  Resolutions emerging from the legislature were either frivolous or totally divorced from reality.

    But the National Assembly had its own problems, too, Shagari said.   Most of its members were inexperienced.  There were too many political parties.  The presidential system itself was a novelty that posed many problems.  It provided no room for interaction between the Executive Branch and the legislature , and when such interaction did occur, the legislature seized upon it as a chance to show a cabinet minister just who was in charge.  Nor were matters helped, he said, by a vociferous press that claimed to be the voice of the people, even though it had not been elected by anyone.

    But as the Administration neared the end of it first term, Shagari went on, things were beginning to improve; rapport and accommodation were beginning to replace rancour and recrimination, and this would no doubt have continued into his second term if the military had not struck again.

    African countries, Shagari warned, would never be able to develop along democratic lines until the shadow of “military paternalism” disappeared.  Elected officials and accredited servants of the people must be allowed unfettered freedom to continue where they left off in 1983.  Nigerian rulers must be allowed to correct their own mistakes themselves.

    Then, reaching his peroration, he declared, “The tools of nation-building must not be associated with lethal weapons but in future, we should use pen and paper and the art of reason as opposed to that of treason.”

    It was this last sentence that brought the audience to its feet and to rapturous applause.  And Shagari savored every moment of it.

    Senate President (in military president Ibrahim Babangida’s misbegotten transition) Iyorchia Ayu would remark in a vote of thanks that Shagari’s speech was rather “strident” and totally out of character for the speaker whom everyone, friend and foe alike, held up as a first-class gentleman.  Another Babangida-era senator, David Iornem, would dismiss the speech as sanctimonious mush.

    Mush or no mush, Shagari had a lot to be strident about.

    When you are accused in and out of season of presiding over an inept and corrupt Administration and of superintending a period of drift and decay, and when a decade later those who supplanted you have not posted any superior performance, a little stridency might not be a bad thing.

    The foregoing was my February 2, 1993, column for The Guardian.

    Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari, Nigeria’s first elected president, died on December 28, 2018, aged 93, at the National Hospital, in Abuja.  He died as he had lived.  Not for him the crass ostentation, the delusion of grandeur, the overweening sense of entitlement, and the rapacious self-dealing that are the defining characteristics of today’s lesser officials, especially those populating the National Assembly.

    It remains to thank those who visit this column week after week, be they admirers or provocateurs, and to wish them a fulfilling and abundant New Year, the unsettling auguries of the General Election and its aftermath notwithstanding.

  • ‘This time, last year’

    At a time most Nigerians have switched to the reflective mode, yours truly couldn’t think of a better way to put things in context than my piece published under the above title about this time last year. Expectedly, whereas some things have truly changed between when the piece was written and now, the changes, over all, have been more apparent than real. The question of whether the piece has borne out the saying that – the more things change, the more they stay the same – is for the reader to judge. Suffice to say that yours truly finds the reflections not only relevant but the issues so timely as to merit reconsideration.

    Here, you have it!

    “What a way to end the year! I mean a year which started on a cautious note, then slowly waltzed up in a surprising momentum only to end up in a terrible anti-climax. Having been spared of the experience about this time last year, if we thought that the era of crippling fuel shortages was finally gone with the supposed mother-of-all reviews of the fuel-price template of May 2016, the grand return of that Nigerian nightmare on Christmas has shown how far the handlers of the sector have yet to master the intriguing dynamics of the sector under their watch.

    As it appears, nothing truly has changed: not the pathetic blame game under which the culprit in chief would accuse others of precipitating the crisis when its own dereliction is so obvious to see; the perennial sideshow which comes by way of the routine hounding Depot and Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPMAN), the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) and the legion of ubiquitous hoarders into Hades; and now top cap it all is the return of that toxic word – subsidy – into the nation’s fuel price template – yes, the old script – which underlies the federal government’s pathetic lack of will to address the economics of fuel importation under which the world’s leading oil producer is routinely subjected to the vagaries of crude oil price movements and foreign exchange fluctuations.

    Forget the NNPC’s needless showmanship; neither the crippling scarcity nor the return of the subsidy is entirely surprising. Nigerians would readily recall that the best argument put forward when the current petrol price template was set was not so much about deregulation but cost recovery. Whereas the regime of cost recovery was understandably designed to foster competition, true deregulation would involve a constant review of the parameters on the fuel price template which in effect means that prices would also change as the dynamics change. That is the dilemma that the current administration has found itself – and which has now cast a dark shadow on its modest achievements.

    It is a cross that the change administration must carry so long as oil prices continue to increase.

    By and large, year 2017 seems to have surpassed expectations. Against all expectations, it exited the recession in the second quarter with a modest GDP growth of 0.55 percent. Inflation is down from 18 percent in 2016 to around 15 percent. The naira has of course gained strength; from N490 to the USD a year ago, it currently trades at N360.  The same with the foreign reserves, it has improved dramatically from $23 billion in October 2016 to $38.2 billion a record 38-month. On the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Report for 2018, Nigeria ranks 145th position – 24 positions up from the 169th position in the 2017 report. There is also a fresh commitment to improve on revenue collection going by the unprecedented haul by the Nigerian Customs Service.

    So what do we expect this year?

    Whereas I wrote of a future hung on faith about this time last year, I must say that year 2018 is pregnant with possibilities. A lot depends on the fiscal discipline across the board.  At a time of unprecedented infrastructure gaps, it seems inexplicable that the federal government will for whatever reasons, fail to implement its own budget.

    Secondly, a lot would also depend on the extent on the abilities of revenue collecting agencies like the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the customs to sustain the current momentum. Thirdly, a lot will also depend on the extent to which the federal government is able to reduce or narrow the crippling infrastructure challenge. It is unfortunate that the Buhari administration appears to have done far less than would ordinarily been expected in the dire situation in which the economy has found itself. A sure proof of that is the perennial failure to implement the capital elements in the budget.

    But even more important is the extent to which the federal government is able to enlist the support of the private sector in getting things done. How to reduce the near total dependence of our manufacturing companies on forex market almost without exception and the associated capital flows which goes on under various guises – all of which flow directly from the failure backward integration remains  a big challenge. Just like the in the outgone year, the situation is expected to continue in 2018 and beyond.

    Finally, I want to talk about two factors that continue to undermine the economy. The first is fuel import said to account for 40 percent of our forex earnings; and the second, the scandalous situation of youth unemployment. On the first, there is at least hope that the country will somehow exit the import cycle when hopefully Dangote refineries comes on stream.

    But then, how do we begin to address the challenge of putting the nearly 50 percent of our idle youths to work? Only recently, the National Bureau of Statistics projected that “the unemployment rate, induced by a recession, typically peaks about 15-18 months after the beginning of a recession or 4-8 months after the end of a recession before it returns to its pre- recession trend”. That the unemployment situation will return to that terrible normal in 2018 can only be bad news for an economy with such a huge idle population. Has anyone thought of something of a Marshall plan to get our youths off the streets even for public works?”

    The above piece was published on January 2, 2018.

    So what has changed? Onethat is hard to miss is the yuletide-linked fuel crises. Thanks to last-minute manoeuvres by the finance ministry, the cycle of paralysis was averted in the outgone year although the issues at the heart of the crisis have remained intractable, just as the interests of the dramatis personae have also remained irreconcilable. Trust the old template –of kicking the problem down the road – working the magic. For now, we enjoy the peace while it lasts.

    The daemon of sluggish growth; of inflation and exchange rate fluctuation would seem determined not yield to easy therapy. Last year GDP growth rate was 1.8 percent. In 2017, it was 0.82 percent. The growth, though modest, is progress. As for inflation, it hovered around the 11 percent band in 2018. In 2017, it was around 15 percent. That too is positive.

    Now, the fear is that things will go worse as electioneering hits momentum in the coming weeks. And now, with the excess crude account buffer now exhausted, and another cycle of oil-price fatigue set on us, some volatility in the exchange rates and possible devaluation is not entirely ruled out.

    Just like last year, high oil price has meant higher costs to the treasury – in direct costs and subsidy. It’s a crazy business. Still wondering why the rate of forex accretion has slowed?

    By the way, I hear Dangote refinery will no longer be ready until 2022!

    Now to the final one –the elephant in the room – unemployment. From 14.2 percent in July 2017, it climbed to 20.4 percent in January 2018 only to peak at 23.1 percent in December 2018. While the figures are haunting as it is, there is something about the trend that says a lot about how far the administration is from getting things right.

    Happy new year to you, dear readers!

  • Benito Aderemi: A Christmas essay from 1986

    It is that time of year again, of peace on earth – as an aspiration, that is – as goodwill toward men or to us men.  Apparently, the precise rendering of that phrase is one of the overarching issues in Christian theology.

    About 20 harmattans ago – make it 52 – I worshipped at a Christmas service at an Anglican church during which the vicar, probably the most learned venerable gentleman in these parts never to have been translated to the episcopacy, discoursed on the matter at great length.

    He had studied and no doubt perfectly understood the original Greek text and was thoroughly dissatisfied  that the conflict had not been resolved definitively.  The way he proceeded, one was almost led to think that the law of gravitation would suddenly cease to operate and the earth would be plucked from its orbit, depending on whether that phrase was translated as goodwill toward men or to us men.

    That was many years before Gloria Steinem and the women’s liberation army launched themselves on the popular consciousness in the United States.  And if there was any woman in that Christmas Congregation who felt that her gender could do with some goodwill as well, she did the proper Nigerian thing:  she kept her views severely to herself.

    That we are once again in the season of aspirational goodwill was brought home to me the other day by the rousing strains of O Come, All Ye Faithful, wafted across by the harmattan wind from one of the kindergartens that dot our neighbourhood.  The children sang it with the kind of innocence that only the pure at heart can muster.  There was not the slightest trace of anxiety about the future in their voices about an economy that seems determined not to recover, whatever anyone may prescribe.

    Few of them, I am sure, are aware that this may be the last Christmas at which they can have bread from wheat flour for breakfast.  In such an eventuality, history is unlikely to repeat itself.  There will be nobody who, on being told that children are grumbling because they have no bread, will retort:  “Let them eat cake.”  For there may be no cake to cut on birthdays or to eat just for the fun of it. And there will be no  cookies.  These items may vanish from grocery shelves at the end of the year when the ban on wheat   imports comes into effect.

    Wheat imports are being stopped to conserve foreign exchange and to encourage us all to structurally adjust our tastes in line with contemporary reality.  Besides, there are adequate local substitutes that are just as good as, if not actually better than wheat flour for making all those foods that children love for their taste and adults cherish because it keeps them out of the kitchen.  The ban will create an opportunity to present the Nigerian people and indeed the entire world a unique, all-Nigerian bread made entirely by Nigerians, from Nigerian raw materials, with machines fabricated or adapted entirely by Nigerians.

    In the end, instead of wasting billions of Naira every year importing wheat, the nation stands to generate a great deal of foreign exchange from the export of the all-Nigerian bread which the entire world has been waiting for.  If the protagonists of the wheat ban have not put forth its advantages actually in these terms, it is because they are exceedingly modest people, seldom given to stating the obvious.

    Yet, if the nation’s experience in banning the undesirable or unaffordable is any indication, the wheat ban, if not deferred or rescinded, will in operation be a farce.

    About this time last year, a ban on rice imports was announced, to much popular and editorial acclaim, as part of yet another new beginning, a determined effort to “look inwards,” and “to use what we have to get what we need.”  Barely five months later, rice shipments worth an estimated N40 million surfaced at Lagos port.  Who placed the order, when, and how, remain mysteries to this day.

    It was speculated, when nobody would openly claim ownership, that the rice was part of international relief material being sent to Chad.  If so, why was the shipment not marked as such? Why had Chad not stepped forward to claim it?

    Part of the shipment later turned up in Benin Republic from where, according to newspaper accounts, it later found its way back to Nigeria overland, and in much less contentious circumstances.  And so, despite the official ban on its importation, there has never been so much rice in the country since Shehu Shagari and Umaru Dikko launched their rice armada six years ago.

    All this should bring some cheer to bread addicts.  There will be bread and cake and and cookies, for there will be wheat flour, somehow.  And only an insignificant part of it will be produced locally.  I doubt whether it will ever come to a stage where those who cannot live without bread – the real stuff, that is, not the Akinloye speciality — will ask friends and relations travelling abroad to be sure to bring back or send some bread, as villagers used to demand of their kin visiting from the cities.

    As for the all-Nigerian bread that is supposed to replace wheat flour bread, I frankly cannot vouch for its future if I were to judge only from personal experience.   I recently had the displeasure of having a bite of the stuff made from corn or cassava or a blend of the two.  It looked like caked, high-grade animal feed and tasked like sawdust.

    It could not have been the same stuff that was served as lunch to members of the Armed Forces Ruling Council (AFRC) the other day and praised by some of them as being just as finger-lickin’ good as the Colonel’s chicken.  Perhaps after the Federal Institute for Industrial Research, Oshodi, will have reaped a fortune from imparting to bakers the secret formula for this most wondrous loaf, lesser Nigerians will be allowed  to partake of it, if only as a matter of human rights.

    The pupils in the neighbourhood preparatory school are still where we left them, singing.  Had the song   not been familiar, I would have wondered what was going in that schoolroom as Benito Aderemi, Benito Aderemi drifted through the harmattan wind.  They had completing adoring Him in English and had switched to the Latin.  In their charmingly Nigerian minds, Venite adoremus had become Benito Aderemi.

    I wonder whether there was a pupil called Benito Aderemi in the school and what he thought about it all. I wonder what those innocent would think of the all-Nigerian bread if and when it materialises.  Who knows, but that they may actually come to prefer it to cake, being the “new Nigerians” that members of my generation are not?

    They may even come to prefer oil-and-wick lamps to light bulbs, and the village announcer to John Momoh and Hauwa Baba Ahmed on television.

  • Why count when you can fudge?

    Stripped of its many connotations and significations, “democracy,” so goes its Nigerian working definition “is a game of numbers.”

    Stated differently, democracy is a matter of counting. The party with the most seats in the legislature controls the legislative process. Just count the numbers.

    The political party, contestant, or proposition that can muster the most votes carries the day. Just count the votes, pro and contra.

    Can anything be more straightforward, more empirical and more democratic, assuming there is a will to determine what the numbers are and to determine them accurately, to take guesswork out of the whole thing and ensure, among other outcomes, an equitable sharing of national assets?

    Where that will is lacking, or where working with the actual numbers may be politically inconvenient, there is always an aversion to counting. Here, I am

    thinking of Lebanon, where no population census has been conducted since the 1930s and the proportion of Muslims to Christians is fixed by national policy for all time at 54: 40.5 percent, in the interest of national stability.

    But in a polity that defines democracy as a game of numbers, you would expect that everything that can be counted will indeed be counted, and the numbers publicised and stored for easy retrieval. Even if the national population cannot be ascertained to the nearest 25 million, you would expect that six months after a realignment of forces that made the political landscape almost unrecognisable even to the most practised eye, the makeup of the legislature would not be a matter of guesswork.

    Not in Nigeria.

    In the Senate, where sheer numbers may determine whether a Bill passes or fails, they do not know which of the two dominant political parties, the APC and the PDP, is in control. The National Assembly, remember, was shut down to pre-empt a showdown that would result in such a determination.

    Months after the Senate returned to business, they have still not bothered to find out the balance of forces in that chamber, and most likely in the House of Representatives as well. The issue seems to have become irrelevant, and would have remained so if a spat had not arisen last week between Senate Majority Leader, Ahmed Lawan (APC-Yobe), and the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu (PDP-Enugu) on a newspaper report on the Senate’s proceedings.

    The newspaper, according to Lawan, had stated that the APC senators numbered 56 as against PDP’s 57. The truth of the matter, Lawan said “for the record,” was that the APC had 54 senators, as against 46 for the PDP.

    But Ekweremadu (PDP-Enugu) countered that there were no particular figures in respect of the number of APC or PDP members in the Senate.

    The Senate does not know its own composition, the balance of forces on which its deliberations often turn. Its majority leader cites figures that its deputy president disputes, without citing any figures of his own, and is apparently content with the situation.

    There you have it.

    “As regards the party configuration, I want to say there is no particular statistics for now,” Ekweremadu said, to remove all doubts on the matter. “We cannot talk about the figures that each political party has because there is no such statistics. So, let it be on record that we have no such record now.”

    He made this declaration without embarrassment, without feeling in the least scandalised. And his colleagues in the Senate received the intelligence in the same manner, and have continued business as usual.

    Why count when you can get by with a voice vote that means wherever the presiding officer says it means – the presiding officer who controls the allocation of juicy positions in the Assembly?

    I suspect that, just as no record exists of the balance of forces in the Senate, no record also exists of how many persons are on the National Assembly’s payroll as aides and other support staff, the group now threatening to shut down the Assembly over unpaid salaries and other benefits stretching back six months or longer.

    Without records, no meaningful audit can be conducted

    But who needs an audit?

    Why count when you can fudge and muddle through?

    ‘Buhari’s Double’: A reprise

    I had intended the postscript I did for this newspaper two weeks ago (“Buhari’s Double: A postscript,” December 5, 2019) to be my last word on the kerfuffle arising from one David Oyedepo’s egregious misreading of an entry on the same subject in my November 27, 2018, miscellany.

    But I must now reprise the matter, following the intervention (TheNEWS, December 5, 2018) of Professor Sheriff Folarin, chairman, Media and Editorial Board, Living Faith Church Worldwide, in defence of his principal, the aforementioned David Oyedepo.

    Here, in summary, is Folarin’s submission:

    Oyedepo is the wronged one, the misunderstood party. He knew all along that the material at issue was a satire, and had even privately expressed surprise at its “weakness.”

    Oyedepo felt that President Muhammadu Buhari should have laid the matter to rest long before it became “cancerous and embarrassing.” At no point, however, did Oyedepo “admit belief” in the story; rather, he made “measured submissions,” chose his words “intelligibly and without ambiguity to be misunderstood (sic.)”

    Oyedepo, being an “elder statesman” and a stakeholder in the Nigerian project, could not afford to keep quiet in the face of the “odious turn of tide” for the country. He and other well-meaning Nigerians “could not be working so hard to build a great image for the country and others, including the government, are destroying what such people labour hard to build.”

    Therefore, unlike others, Oyedepo chose not to fold his arms, mindful of Professor Wole Soyinka’s warning that “the man dies in him who keeps silent in the face of tyranny,” tyranny being, among other things, “insensitivity to issues of national concern.”

    social
    Buhari

    “Dare’s “satire” failed if it could not achieve its purpose and could be understood so literally,” Folarin concludes. “If the likes of Animal Farm’s George Orwell and Voltaire had written such flat satires and had later done postscripts explaining their works were satires, the way Dare has done, how could the satirical genre of writing have been popular?”

    Well, well, well!

    Folarin’s submission is a classic instance of repeating the offence instead of refuting the charge. Invoking Soyinka’s authority to justify his principal’s egregious misconstruction of my article is the height of cynicism. The entire response is emblematic of the profound lack of humility in an establishment where the leadership never admits error and is above criticism.

    If Folarin’s principal knew that my piece was a satire, albeit a “weak one”, but still went on to expound it in a solemn homily before his worldwide congregation, not as an example of a poorly-executed satire but as an authoritative revelation of unrighteousness and conspiracy of the foulest kind at the highest levels of government, he cannot blame those who have charged that he acted from impure motives, and with un-statesmanlike disregard for consequences.

  • And now, Garba Shehu vs. NBS

    These are exciting times no doubt. A sure proof is the current national frenzy over last weekend’s debate between five vice presidential candidates which many have since reduced to a spar between Vice President Yemi Osinbajo of the governing All Progressives Congress and Peter Obi of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party.  In a country where citizens are more often than not hung on the ‘bored mode’, it would seem that the only point of agreement was that the night provided some excitement, or if you like, entertainment, for gladiators on either side.

    Never mind that a number of the claims are as outlandish as they can get, or that a number of the contributions made little sense in the context of the complex issues daily confronting the ordinary citizen, it seems entirely doubtful that the sparing parties, aside further reinforcing earlier prejudices, won new converts to their positions which of course leaves one wondering whether the public cause was truly served.

    Days after – and thanks to the nation’s legion of Netizens, we have just about now as many scores awarded as there are scorers!

    It’s truly the season of unreason.

    Now, thanks to Presidential spokesman Garba Shehu, another storm, ready-made for the season, appears to be brewing. Yesterday, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, on Channels TV’s Sunrise Daily, reported President Muhammadu Buhari as ordering the Statistician-General of the National Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Yemi Kale, to “change the high unemployment statistics and reflect the rising rate of employment in the agriculture sector”.

    He claimed that the nation’s chief statistician confessed (my word) to the Federal Executive Council that the unemployment figures were not only overstated, but it focused only “on the creation of white collar jobs and not the agriculture sector and the informal sector”. The President, he said, “subsequently told him to go and admit his error to members of the public and make appropriate changes”.

    To further quote the online medium Premium Times: “When he finished addressing the federal cabinet last week, the government asked the DG of the NBS, go out there and tell the Nigerian public, you are just saying to us now that Jigawa, Zamfara, Kebbi and Ebonyi are recording the lowest unemployment rates in the country on account of agriculture”.

    He added, ostensibly for proper effect, that Rice Producers Association of Nigeria had created 12 million new jobs- and as if to prove the body’s claim was inviolate – as against that of a dithering NBS – he would swear that nobody has challenged them up until that time!

    The story would change – few hours later when the NBS chief, in what amounted to a pointed, clear-headed rebuttal on Twitter simply stated that he made no such submissions to anybody at any time:  “Assuming what you claim was said was actually said” he fired back, “then I make it very clear that neither the statistician-general nor NBS ever made any such admission at any time to anybody,” Kale reportedly told another online medium, The Cable, on enquiry.

    Trust newshounds not to let such slips pass, Shehu, when confronted with the rebuttal, would not yield ground: “There is nothing wrong with what I said on sunrisedaily, this morning. I spoke about the very bright picture of jobs creation by the Buhari administration Mr Yemi Kale gave last week.

    He went on: “Mr. President, who had complained many times about employment figures reflecting mostly white collar jobs and therefore unfairly underplaying the millions of jobs his administration has created in the farms, must have felt a sense of vindication.

    “The response by the government was, go and put this out, address a world press conference to correct the wrong impression for all to know how well we are doing in creating jobs. We hope there will soon be a date for that press conference.”

    Talk of oddities, there must be countless here. But first things first. Who to believe between Shehu and Kale? A lot of course depends on what happens in the coming days. It is of course clear that both cannot be right at the same time.

    Hopefully, the proposed press conference as announced by Shehu Garba should help clear all doubts. Sure, you know by who! A press conference to right the supposed wrongs or one to cook up figures to please the masters in the Villa? So what happens to the supposedly professionalized entity after? It ought to be troubling that the presidential spokesman will so cavalierly cast the institutional integrity of a professionalized body like the NBS to the swine.

    Flowing from that of course is the dangerous mindset that assumes that the administration not only has the final say on all matters under the sun but that expert opinions are also subject to the whims and caprices of political actors. Such mindset is of course responsible for the benign suggestion that the administration can only accept those set of statistics that fits squarely into its own parameters of performance.

    By the way, is it mere coincidence that the last time unemployment data was released was that of the third quarter of 2017? While it would seem understandable that the administration would be worried by the prognosis, given that the unemployment rate then stood at 18.8 per cent– the highest since 2010 – or even the more troubling part, which is the revelation that the unemployment rate actually more than doubled since 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari took power, the idea that the administration can get NBS to sex up the figures to please the fancies of those in power would seem a new one.

    As it is, the story may have only begun to unfold. Only last month, the NBS was forced to cry out over lack of critical funds needed to embark on the same unemployment survey being complained about! Then, many of the administration’s critics had quickly concluded that it was not only deliberate but politically motivated. To the charge, Kale had quite reasonably demurred:  “there are other equally or even more important work competing for same limited funding. I assume when funds are available we will be funded”.

    I hear. The planned press conference will hopefully address that also.

  • Election 2019: Whose verdict?

    With each passing day, it looks as if the outcome of the General Election scheduled for February 2019 will be shaped more by external influences than by Nigeria’s internal dynamics.

    By this, I do not mean that it will be a throwback to 2015 when the combined forces of former U. S. President Barak Obama and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, former French president Francois Hollande and others former president Goodluck Jonathan did not name in his unprepossessing memoir, ensured that he did not return to power, regardless of his record of performance and how Nigerians judged it.

    Nor do I have in mind the intelligence services of those countries, most notoriously the US Central Intelligence Agency, with their record of skullduggery in the internal affairs of countries they believe have strayed beyond their assigned places in the international order.

    The external influences I am referring to do not possess that kind of power.  They cannot stir things up even if they were minded to do so.  They lack the capacity to translate their preferences into action except perhaps in the most indirect of ways.

    To come right out with it, I am thinking of the International Monetary Fund, the Bookings Institution, The Economist magazine, Transparency International and similar establishments in the West that from time to time pronounce magniloquently on the condition of things in the poorer countries and, as if they were “God’s spies,” to quote The Bard, spell out what fate has in store for them.

    And I am thinking of the foreign audiences which, more often than not accept and internalise as Holy Writ, whatever images these establishments in the metropole put forth, however mutilated. They invoke them uncritically, enthusiastically and approvingly.

    This was the context in which Nigerians woke up one morning only to learn that their country, having been declared winner of the global poverty sweepstakes, had been transformed into the world’s poverty capital, a dubious distinction that previously belonged to India.

    By whose authority?

    The Brookings Institution.

    The Opposition was ecstatic.  The report, it said, confirmed what discerning and long-suffering Nigerians had known all along, namely, that the ruling APC, which had promised to bring prosperity to Nigerians,  had brought only mass pauperisation.   The remedy was to throw it out at the next election.

    I do not mean to make light of the phenomenon of poverty, a blight on a world that privileges superfluity for the one percent over sufficiency for the rest.  But the aggregate numbers of persons living in poverty in a given country, however that term is defined, is only one indicator of the state of poverty in a given country, and not even the most critical.  Rarely, in any case, are those numbers captured in National Accounts.

    Nor do the compilers take into reckoning the unofficial safety net provided by remittances and handouts from family members, friends and relations, and from solicitous others.  Such reliefs are largely unknown in the West.

    Besides, any scheme that characterises India, a nuclear and space power and cyber power, home to the world’s largest pool of English-speaking engineers and scientists and computer programmers as a citadel of poverty does not deserve to be taken seriously.

    Nigeria is not in the same league, despite its oil wealth.  Still, any foreigner hoping to see hordes dying on the streets from starvation, malnutrition or disease, is sure to be disappointed.

    During its time in power, the PDP and corruption were inseparable.  The Opposition looked forward every year to the bulletin of Transparency International, hoping that the PDP would at least maintain its  ranking on the Corruption Index, if not slip several notches.  Now it is the other way round, with the PDP in jubilation, ecstatic that corruption in Nigeria has spiked under the APC’s watch, going by the latest bulletin of the corruption monitors.

    Several months ago, the Economist, the newsmagazine that prefers to be regarded as a newspaper, wrote in a forecast that the coming elections in Nigeria would be closely fought but that the APC stood to be ousted on account of widespread dissatisfaction with its performance in the three years it had been in power and that the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, would be Nigeria’s next president.

    The forecast set off exuberant rejoicing in the PDP camp.  It accorded with the perspicacity and the analytical insightfulness that had earned the journal global renown, and confirmed the PDP’s rigorous assessment of the state of play, a gloating party spokesperson said.

    The way the PDP carried on, you would think that the election had actually taken place and that the party had been swept back to power.

    Meanwhile, the APC camp squirmed but kept up appearances.  It took consolation from being an incumbent that had spent only three years in the saddle, not long enough to earn the kind of public disapproval that undergirded the PDP’s ouster in 2015.

    Two weeks ago, The Economist followed with another forecast that was the opposite of the previous one.  Yes, the race would be tight, but the APC would not only prevail, the PDP might disintegrate before the event!

    All hell broke loose in the PDP camp.  They cried “betrayal” and worse.  In its rank and file, The Economist now came across as a journal utterly lacking in principle and ethical conduct, a practitioner par excellence of chequebook journalism.  The journal, they said, had fallen on hazard times and had decided to sell its editorial pages to the highest bidder, leaving the attentive audience readers to wonder whether the PDP had paid hard cash for the paper’s earlier forecast that had the PDP winning the presidential election.

    In the APC camp, the reaction was:  “We told you so.  The PDP is going nowhere.”

    And all this hubbub because of a foreign newspaper’s forecast that lays no claim to scientific rigour.

    Finally, Atiku’s bid for an entry visa to the United States.  How that became an issue in Nigeria’s presidential election is puzzling.  Indeed, given the frenzy the matter has generated, you would think that it is the single most important issue in the race.

    First, some context.

    About a decade ago, an associate of Atiku’s was questioned in the United States the investigation of some financial transactions.  Allegations swirled that Atiku was implicated in the investigation, and stood  to be arrested anytime he stepped on American soil – assuming he could secure an entry visa, the previous one having been lifted on account of the investigation.  Whether on account of that incident or for unrelated reasons, Atiku has since then given the United States a wide berth.

    The Opposition took note.  Since Atiku clinched the PDP ticket for the presidential election, the APC has been taunting him.  He wants to be Nigeria’s president?  Let him visit the United States first, as proof of his fitness for the office.  If he survives it, then we can begin to entertain him as a candidate in good standing.

    Tired of the taunts and the jeers and the goading, Atiku decided to embark on a trip to the United States and touch base with his old taunts.  Demonstrations erupted in some cities, urging the U.S. Consulate to deny him a visa, and all manner of persons from all manner of motives joined in the petition.  The U. S. Consulate would not confirm nor deny that Atiku had been given a visa.

    But an online source reported that Atiku had indeed secured a visa and was already in London, en route the United States.  The APC exploded in righteous indignation, saying that, by its action, the United  States was setting morality in public life at nought.

    As for Atiku, instead of hopping across the Atlantic from the UK, he flew across the Sahara back to Lagos  to witness the official launch of the PDP’s campaign for the General Election.  He had merely interrupted his trip for that purpose and would resume it at the earliest opportunity.

    Baloney, his opponents snickered.

    The wily, world-wise PDP presidential candidate, they said, knew a trap when he saw one.  Even if  he arrived on US soil armed with a State Department-issued visa in the highest classification, nothing prevented the Department of Justice from plucking him off his jet and marching him to the nearest interrogation centre, for a start.

    That was exactly what the APC and those Atiku defeated in the race for the PDP ticket wanted, they said.

    Amidst all the speculation and the scheming, it is as if the Nigerian electorate is irrelevant.  It is as if the outcome of the General Election will be determined by the Brookings Institution, The Economist, and the Visa Section of the U. S. Consulate.

     

     

     

     

  • The poverty challenge

    It is certainly good news that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Bankers’ Committee have not relented in their bid to seek innovative ways to deepen financial inclusion and to fight the scourge poverty in the continent’s biggest economy. Rising from the 10th Annual Bankers’ Committee retreat in Lagos on Sunday night, the body agreed to set up a committee headed by chief executive officers (CEOs) of commercial banks to create a strategy that will stimulate lending in the domestic economy. According to this newspaper, the committee is to”ensure that lenders deploy key intervention funds, including the N210 billion Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) fund, N60 billion SMEs fund from five per cent annual contribution from banks’ profits, N500 billion Export Stimulation Fund (ESF) among others, to promote credit access”.

    For youths in particular, CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele spoke of a scheme under which they may be asked to deposit either their National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) discharge certificates or degree certificates with the banks to enable them have access to the loans.

    That should be good news for our teeming youths most of whom, despite the strictures of finance, continue to churn of sterling accomplishment in the entertainment industry, information technology and software development sectors.

    The story is no different for the small and medium scale enterprises – a sector known to be perennially ill-served by the commercial banks; there is now a promise of a new National Microfinance Bank to help in the disbursement of the intervention funds to borrowers. Now, think of the N210 billion Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) fund already in the kitty; the additional N60 billion SMEs fund from five per cent annual contribution from banks’ profits and another N500 billion Export Stimulation Fund all exclusively for the so-called marginal players in the economy.

    And that is merely one half of the entire picture of on-going intervention. In fact, this would amount to merely a tip of the iceberg when compared with what the federal government, through its rather ambitious National Social Intervention Programme (NSIP), has done or proposes to do to deepen financial inclusion and to reduce the scourge of poverty. For instance, we know for a fact that the federal government has in the last three years budgeted a total of N1.5tn to address the same set of concerns (only N220 billion was reportedly disbursed): the most vulnerable in the society, those in dire need of credit for medium small and micro enterprises (MSMEs), all with a view to reduce inequality and wide disparities in access to such social goods as education and health services, among others.

    Perhaps, the two that has got every Nigerian talking are the Market Moni, interest-free loans ranging between N10,000 andN100,000 for owners of micro-enterprises, and the Trader Moni – both initiatives launched under the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) in partnership with the Bank of Industry (BOI) whose implementation is being personally driven by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Under the latter, very small scale traders are availed loans starting fromN10,000 which on pay back qualifies them to move progressively to N50,000.

    Understandably, there have been questions not just about the intent of the initiative, coming so close to the 2019 elections but also whether the amount can actually make any difference to the beneficiaries given the state of the inflation and the presence of other dire factors in the environment.

    Talk of a sterile, elite debate in a country where 86.9 million is currently said to live in extreme poverty – nearly 50% of its estimated 180 million people, and where issues of financial exclusion have remained a tough nut to crack. The flip side is whether the federal government can afford to fold its hands and do nothing –when, not too long ago, the same federal government had to shell out nearly a trillion naira to save the financial sector when a bunch of delinquent, self-indulgent actors took the sector to the abyss.

    Talk about one, after plundering and plunging their sector into ruin being asked to go and sin no more; another being called a leech for no other reason than being offered a fair chance to move up the social ladder! That was as bad as things could get.

    For sure, poverty would be a major issue in the 2019 elections. And this would not necessarily be because one foreign body – the Brookings Institution, sourcing its data from the World Poverty Clock,gratuitously claims that Nigeria now has over 87 million people living in poverty, or as some would rather gloat, that Nigeria has claimed the trophy of being the world poverty capital. One recalls that our own National Bureau of Statistics actually painted a worse picture in 2016 when it reported that no fewer than 112 million Nigerians live below the poverty line. With nearly three out of five able-bodied youth out of gainful employment, and with no chance of anyone escaping the derivatives in the deadly scourges of terror and anti-social acts that poverty breeds, it is a reality that we inextricably bound. And now it is said that whereas the poor can’t sleep because of the pang of hunger, the rich too can’t sleep because of the groans of the poor! Very true.

    Which is why Nigerians will need toscrutinize closely what the leading candidates seeks tooffer as antidote. Drawing ideological lines between Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari on the issue, I must confess has not been quite easy let alone straightforward. Atiku campaign, a friend pointed out to me, is fighting on an unabashedly neo-liberal platform, a throwback to the discredited structural adjustments programme. Those were his words shortly after stepping out of Southwest meeting  of Buhari Support Organisation in Ibadan last week.  Such pathway which he insisted saw to the abolition of the commodities boards with its debilitating effect on the rural economy and incomes as well as the pruning down on investments in the social economy – education, health and welfare, are sure roads to disaster, he concluded.

    On the other hand, he thinks Buhari’s social intervention programmes are much more in tune with the realities of the current time. To him, while it is convenient to decry schemes such as tradermoni, he refers to the establishment of the Cooperative Bank in the Western Region in 1953 as a response to the absence of financial inclusiveness and the inadequacy of the Anglo Saxon banking model with its emphasis on short termism!

    My thoughts?

    The country requires extraordinary measures to beat back the poverty scourge. The social intervention programmes thoughabsolutely important, are only a necessary first step. What is needed at this time is an entirely new economy driven by the energies of the youth – a far cry from the current one steeped in rent. It must start with deliberate efforts to retool and re-orientate our youths while creating opportunities for them to blossom.

    Again, my penny thoughts.