The Nation Newspaper

Category: Wednesday

  • Obi: Trump of Africa

    Obi: Trump of Africa

    Donald J. Trump and Peter Gregory Obi. The comparisons of aspects of their political behaviour are too close to ignore. They are both supposed billionaires turned politician. They both won elections before, Trump as President of the United States and Obi as Governor of Anambra state, Nigeria. They both lost the election to be President of their respective countries. Trump lost reelection in 2020, while Obi lost in his first attempt in 2023. They both denied the election they lost and encouraged their supporters to protest the results, while they continue to attack electoral officials and to denigrate the winner of the election.

    The similarities in the campaigns for their failed presidential bid are worth detailed examination. To varying degrees, they both relied on ethnic and religious bigotry. True, there are no primordial ethic groups in the US as in Nigeria, but there are ethnisised populations in the country. They include Native American Indians (the original, but displaced, owners of the land), Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Jews. Some of these populations, especially Blacks, are racialised more than others. Opposed to these “ethnics” are Whites—nationalists and patriots in Trump’s terminology. Against that terminology, Trump’s campaign slogan, Make America Great Again, actually translates to Make America White Again.

    As for Obi and his ethnic followers, there are basically two ethnic groups in Nigeria—the Igbo and others. He took his campaign to the Igbo wherever they are located in Nigeria and even in the Diaspora. Majority of Igbo voters responded with their votes for him so much so that no other candidate had meaningful votes in the five Igbo states in the Southeast. He also mopped up Igbo votes elsewhere. IPOB and so-called Unknown Gunmen in the Southeast went into voluntary ceasefire to pave way for Obi’s unrealised victory.

    Trump and Obi also both used religion as a campaign weapon. Trump, who rarely goes to church, would visit churches during campaign tours and boast of his popularity with “the evangelicals”. His transactional use of religion could be illustrated by two separate events. On one occasion, during the riots following George Floyd’s police killing, Trump stood by Saint John Episcopal Church beside the White House, with a closed Bible in his right hand, for a photo-op, while protesters were being tear-gassed in front of the White House. His attempt to further demonstrate his religiosity the following day, by posing in front of the statue of Pope John Paul II in Washington, drew even more criticisms. Politicians and even church leaders lambasted him for his transactional use of religion.

    Obi’s transactional use of religion is much worse than Trump’s. Just as he targeted Igbo populations across the country, so did he target religious leaders, moving his campaign from church to church. Sunday sermons in many churches, especially in his Southeastern base, became political sermons and tutorials on how to vote “wisely”. In no time, his Labour Party logo of Papa, Mama, and Pikin was quickly reinterpreted in terms of Joseph, Mary, and Jesus. Translation: A vote for Obi is a vote for the Lord. It is no wonder then that Obi told Bishop Oyedepo in a leaked audio conversation between the two that the election “is a religious war”. The Bishop responded, “I believe that, I believe that, I believe that”, and assured Obi that “the result will be favourable”. Obi almost offered a quid pro quo during the conversation: “Like I keep saying, if this works, you people will never regret the support”.

    Another shared feature between Trump and Obi is the use of social media by their supporters for disinformation, misinformation, defamation, and even slander. While Trump’s supporters are famous for conspiracy theories, Obi’s are famous for fake news and trolls.

    By the time the election was held, it was clear that Trump and Obi had developed into some cultish figure for their followers. Relying on these followers, religious blessings, and inaccurate opinion poll results, both men became so psychologically invested in the success of their campaigns that they did not even imagine that they could lose.

    Yet, both men lost squarely. Trump had 74.2 million popular votes, whereas Biden had 81.2 million. What is more, Trump did not meet the constitutional requirement of 270 electoral college votes to be elected President. Instead, he had only 232 electoral college votes, while Biden had 306.

    Obi’s case is even worse. While Trump was the runner-up in the US election, Obi came third with 6.1 million votes in the Nigerian presidential election. Even the person who came second, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, with 6.9 votes said publicly that Obi could never have won. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, had 8.7 million votes. Even more importantly, both Atiku and Obi fell short of the constitutional requirement of winning at least 25 percent of the votes in 24 or more states. Both Atiku (21 states) and Obi (17 states) fell short of the requirement, whereas Tinubu, who won, met the requirement in as many as 30 states.

    Trump’s and Obi’s denials of the election could only arm their supporters to spew conspiracy theories and misinformation about the election on social media and on TV as well as engage in disruptive behaviour. While Trump’s supporters went as far as attacking the Capitol, which houses Congress, in order to prevent the certification of Biden’s winning result, Obi’s supporters are protesting all over the place and vowing to disrupt Tinubu’s inauguration as Nigeria’s President on May 29, 2023. Instead of inauguration, they advocate an Interim National Government, which is unknown to law.

    What makes the political behaviour of these two men most objectionable is that they both have availed themselves of the constitutional means of seeking redress. Trump filed over 60 lawsuits to challenge one aspect or the other of the 2020 US presidential election and lost all of them. Obi’s petition is already with the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. If he is so confident of his evidence, why not wait for the verdict?

    By continuing to deny the election and inciting his followers, even after filing his petition, Obi appears to be playing Trump. The last man who did that was Jair Bolsonaro, the former President of Brazil, who lost his reelection bid in 2022 to the present President, Luiz Lula da Silva.

    Angered by the loss, and incited by Bolsonaro’s speeches, his supporters attacked the Supreme Court, the Congress, and the Presidential Palace. Like many of Trump’s rioters, many of Bolsonaro’s rioters are now languishing in jail. Bolsonaro earned the nickname of Trump of the Tropics. Obi may well be Trump of Africa.

  • Prof. Adeleye@90; 10th NASS: Cut NASS ‘SAPP’ 75%

    Prof. Adeleye@90; 10th NASS: Cut NASS ‘SAPP’ 75%

    Professor JA Adeleye, CON, is 90 this week. A distinguished Obstetrician and Gynaecologist went to CMS Grammar School Lagos, Nigerian College of Arts, Science and Technology, University of Ibadan (Affiliate of University of London), had post graduate training in UCH Ibadan and Maternity and Women’s and Dudley Hospitals all in Birmingham and returned from the UK to join the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Ibadan and the UCH, Ibadan.

    He taught generations of medical students while contributing to the high standards of service delivery and research at UCH, the College of Medicine and the University of Ibadan in general. He was awarded the Best Lecturer College of Medicine, Award by Senior Staff of OAUTH as chairman of the board for ‘Outstanding and Open Administration’. He received several Distinguished Service and other awards from Institutions and The Society of Obstetrics and Gynaecology SOGON of which he is probably the longest-serving member of SOGON Council. My colleagues and I enjoyed his amiable teaching methods in the 70s and 80s. He was always reliable when on call, ready-to-teach-if-you-were-willing-to-learn, keeping time and highly diligent in his work and often with an appreciative smile and a reassuring calm confidence in the most desperate of women’s health challenging clinical and surgical situations which usually involved large amounts of blood loss in a very short time. Then he was a leader in a team of consultants that taught thousands of medical students and budding embryonic OBGYN specialists so well that they qualified to practice OBGYN at home and abroad equipping them with skills beyond their years and qualifications to the surprise of foreign colleagues who were less exposed to the variety of complications of patients as were experienced in Nigeria.

    The labour ward is really about the labour war. The war to accompany the mother on her journey of delivery and assist to ensure both mother and baby are shielded from the dangers of delivery- the most dangerous day in the life of a mother and child. I join millions of grateful families, medical students-now turned doctors and professors in their own right, in applauding the work and worth of Professor JA Adeleye and also those of his colleagues past and present for being there when they were most needed-in the lecture room, the clinic, ward rounds, the labour room, at Grand Rounds, the gynaecology theatre and for many years an exemplary fair, not feared, frightening or biased examiner.

    Sadly, we live in a country with warped values where politicians recognize only themselves and their politically-connected hangers-on while ignoring and belittling all other professionals in terms of wisdom, wealth and honours distribution. Let it be known at the beginning of a new 2023-2027 political cycle that politicians ignore professions at risk of continued decay of society.  Let it be known that that we recognize Prof JA Adeleye and many others for their contribution to keeping the health sector, and by extension millions of families developing through years of diligent unsung and unpraised, often underfunded and underequipped work. As he also chuckles at his memories and contributions, let us applaud him and thank God for accompanying him on his life’s journey to this week and beyond.

     Politicians and those known to the press are not the only worthy citizens of Nigeria and the press should seek out such inspiration as stories for the generation next.

    A presidential/state governor’s letter and a reasonable gift sum for every 90 year old, please.

     A country which ignores the national outcry based on professional and socially acceptable local and international comparisons against huge Political Salaries and Pensions and Perks-SAPP, cannot expect developmental progress, but further stupendous legally-backed financial abuse. One or two 2023 election manifestos promised downward adjustments of SAPP. We demand cuts to the NASS budget and wages to an exploitative politics. Nauseating flamboyance, obscene videos of disgracefully expensive male and female jewelry and boastfully labeled ‘From Senator or Representative this or that’ on sacks of so-called ‘palliatives’ and items for ‘empowerment’ misnamed ‘donations’ all perpetrating what looks like a financial crime by pretending the gifts are a personal gift to the citizenry.

    These reinforce the ‘Midas Myth’ of political ‘big-manism’ and ‘big-womanism’ when in fact what politicians are actually doing is just returning to citizens a fraction, maybe 5- 25%, of money previously taken as stupendous multimillion naira Salaries And Perks and Pensions-SAPPs. These are out of all proportion to the financial reality in Nigeria locally or when compared to international political colleagues in the genuinely rich $10-50 trillion G-20 economies.  THIS IS FRANK ABUSE OF FINANCAL AUTHORITY AT THE HIGHEST POLITICAL LEVEL AND MAY BE A 419 FINANCIAL CRIME AGAINST NIGERIA, a fraud hidden in broad daylight.  

    The NASS must be severely downgraded financially to be part of Nigeria’s economic reality and not remaining in the dreamland above most top politicians worldwide. What is bad is bad, be it a bad law or pay in a corruption driven nearly impoverished Nigeria with a current N43 trillion debt.

    NASS should have its SAPPs cut by 75 % on the first day of 10th NASS business to fit into the levels of government salaries. Home states should pay their Abuja elected officials to bring financial discipline.         

    The 2023-27 government at every level has a historic responsibility to downsize its administrative and financial burden by 50-75% on the budget and not perpetuate a PARIAH POLITICAL POLICY.

  • Understanding the judicial roller coaster in Osun

    Understanding the judicial roller coaster in Osun

    Surely, we are in interesting times with our Lordships. And this is only the beginning, given the plethora of election petitions generated by losing candidates in the 2023 general elections.

    The case at hand is the recent contradictory judgements, which pitched the Court of Appeal against the Osun Election Petition Tribunal. The latter had ruled in favour of former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress. Oyetola and the APC had appealed to the Tribunal against the declaration by the Independent National Electoral Commission that then candidate Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party won majority of lawful votes in the July 16, 2022, governorship election in Osun state and was duly elected as Governor. Oyetola and his political party argued that Adeleke’s putative victory was based on over-voting and prayed the Tribunal to overturn Adeleke’s election and declare Oyetola as the winner and duly elected Governor. In their judgment on January 27, 2023, two of the three judges on the Tribunal agreed and reversed Adeleke’s victory. One of the judges dismissed Oyetola’s appeal.

    However, on Friday, March 24, 2023, a three-member panel of the Court of Appeal unanimously overturned the ruling of the Tribunal and upheld the election of Ademola Adeleke in the governorship contest of July 16, 2023. Rather than rule out over-voting in the election as such, the Appeals Court contended that Oyetola and APC did not meet the burden of proof of their major allegation, namely, over-voting, and that the Tribunal erred in law by relying on the table provided by the their counsel as evidence of over-voting. In essence, the Court of Appeal agreed with the dissenting judge at the Tribunal.

    This immediately raises questions about the nature of the evidence tendered before the Tribunal by Oyetola and the APC and whether it met the burden of proof required by law. The main data presented to the Tribunal consisted of a certified true copy of the BVAS reports obtained from INEC’s backend server; form EC8As from the affected polling units; and other documents relating to the election.

    The Court of Appeal ruled that it was wrong to have relied on data from INEC’s backend server to allege over-voting, without tendering in evidence BVAS device, voters register, and result collation forms from the affected polling units to validate their claims. According to the Court, data from INEC’s back-end server is “not regarded as physical evidence of accreditation and transmission of results from the disputed polling units”.

    Moreover, as admitted in evidence by the Tribunal, “BVAS transmission of results is not done instantly from the polling units”. This gives room for updating the report on the backend server until the completion of the election process. The dispute over “synchronization” as pleaded by INEC before the Tribunal arose from this need for updating the data on the backend server. However, the Court of Appeal seemed to have overlooked the Tribunal’s crucial observation that another BVAS report was presented during the pendency of the case, without withdrawing an earlier one issued to Oyetola and APC, leading the Tribunal to view the later report as an afterthought. There were thus contradictory BVAS reports that the Tribunal did not resolve before pitching tent with the first one presented to the Tribunal. This leaves open the question as to how much time is needed for INEC to synchronize all data with the server.

    Of more significance, however, is the Court of Appeal’s focus on the legality of Tribunal’s ruling vis-à-vis the evidence tendered on over-voting. Here, the Court of Appeal leaned heavily on burden of proof, by insisting that, in order to prove over-voting, the data required from the affected polling units should have included firsthand evidence from the BVAS machines, voters register, collation forms, AND evidence from polling agents, because they, more than anyone else, knew what happened.

    Besides, in the Court’s opinion, the table presented to the Tribunal, and which the majority judgment relied on for over-voting amounted to hearsay in the eyes of the law, because evidence was not tendered in open court as to how the data on table were arrived at. This amounts to a serious puncture on the Tribunal’s judgement.

    The contradictory findings are not altogether surprising. As Babajide Otitoju pointed out in TVC’s Journalist Hangout, we have been treated to such contradictions in the past. Even in the same Osun, former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola won at the Tribunal in 2008 but lost to Rauf Aregbesola at the Court of Appeal on November 26, 2010 over an election conducted on April 14, 2007. Hence the staggered election in Osun till today.

    What is more important here are the implications of the present judgement for future cases, especially if it is upheld by the Supreme Court. Given the high incidence of over-voting (real and imagined) in the recent general elections, petitioners should learn from this judgment about the burden of proof required to sustain their allegation. What is clear is that it is one thing for everyone to suspect or know that over-voting occurred or to just mouth over-voting to discredit an election; it is another thing to prove it in a court of law.

    Another issue is about the voters register. Some readers of the judgment would seem to imply that the Appeal Court was not mindful of the diminished role of the voters register in the era of BVAS. That is not my reading of the judgment. Yes, the Court might have referred to an earlier judgment of the Supreme Court in support of the role of the voters register in proving over-voting, but I think the voters register the Court of Appeal had in mind here is the register of voters in each polling unit, where over-voting was alleged. In this case, the voters register would consist of information about those who collected their PVCs and were eligible to vote at the election. In cases of over-voting, such a register might be needed to corroborate information on the BVAS and to identify those who voted but were not on the register for the polling unit.

    Finally, in view of the Justices’ arguments in adjudicating this appeal, it is very important to note the limits of technology in Nigerian elections. We still do not have the necessary infrastructure to support the level of technology we seek to employ, which gives room for human factors to intervene in the process. Poverty, unemployment, and illiteracy can only compromise the human factors. This is the more reason human agents will continue to be needed as witnesses in election petitions.

  • Prof Happi’s Al-Sumait Prize; 2023-27 Politics needs R&D  

    Prof Happi’s Al-Sumait Prize; 2023-27 Politics needs R&D  

    Professor Christian Happi, professor of Molecular Biology and Genomics in the Department of Biological Sciences and the Director of the African Centre of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases at Redeemer’s University, a private university in Ede Osun State, has just won the 2023 Al-Sumait Prize for African Development from His Highness The Crown Prince of Kuwait, Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, on behalf of the Government and People of Kuwait. This is a magnificent achievement speaking to what can be achieved by service to populations by Africa’s scientists and their teams on home soil when their institutions are fully-funded by international and local donors in a university system which welcomes and works with them, solving their problems rather than hindering them with academic, administrative and financial bureaucracy which frustrates scientists forcing them abroad for survival and satisfaction.

    The truth is that the political and civil service class disrespect scientists forgetting that their smart cars, cellphones, drinks, food and homes are from the research of scientists and technological wizards, properly funded and salaried for years.

    Nigeria and particularly Ibadan are blessed with many tertiary and post-tertiary research institutions founded with genuine academic and research-usefulness goals. They used to deliver usable results but now almost uniformly suffer from the decay of CINS – Corruption, Incompetence, Negligence Selfishness – manifest by politicised boards of governance and management, with unskilled leadership, underfunding with neglect manifest by salaries without funds for research or even maintenance. Most Nigerian research laboratories are grimy-windowed, cobwebbed, dust-infested, rodent residences, only cleaned when a dignitary is expected.

    These laboratories cry out through budgetary requests for the multi-millions needed for mundane and cutting-edge equipment for usable results. But the purse-string holding civil servants in supervising ministries and the budget-hawk politicians in Houses of Assembly at state and national level would rather spend N50-60m buying a useless but visible jeep than an electron microscope unseen in a sterile laboratory.

    But the problem is worse than even that. You can be underfunded and still be clean but not in Nigeria. Visit any lecture hall or demonstration room in most universities. Why do most cleaners only barely manage to sweep passages but no under-tables, corners or remove cobwebs or marks from walls and identify for immediate repair broken chairs in Nigeria’s classrooms from primary school to PhD lecture room? Even if the institution is broke can the cobwebs and windows not be cleaned?

    Please, never seek a clean usable toilet in any tertiary institution as they are almost uniformly all under lock and key for ‘senior bottoms’. So, man or woman, as you are banned from the official lavatory, get ready to ‘pee against a tree’! And then be caught on camera and prosecuted by campus security, hehe!

    Professor Happi’s success, almost a Nobel Prize, is hope and inspiration for thousands of Africa’s scientists and not just the highly-skilled scientists working and training in his laboratory. When he tried to establish the genome laboratory, Redeemer’s University immediately saw the credibility value. Many other university environments are too politically toxic to new ideas, new personnel and new quicker work ways.

    The Happi success story is from a life-long dedication to scientific excellence, an adequate reward system, an equal-opportunity access to international research funds and grants and the benefit of having impacted the WHO positively even before Covid.

    What are the lessons learnt and the relevance to Nigeria of the success of Professor Happi’s research in Covid and other areas as we enter the 2023-2027 political cycle? Yes, politics impacts science, often negatively. Each state should liaise with local and national research institutes to identify mutually beneficial areas. Certainly, Nigeria’s political period 2023-2027 must provide budgetary funding for research, like South Africa does. The chief lesson is that Nigeria has neglected its scientists at its peril. Only a serious 2023-27political effort may adequately fund, for equipment and research, all the research institutes towards the Research and Development, R&D, needs of states and Nigeria.

    We can all recite acronyms for our research institutions. CRIN, FRIN, NISER, IAR&T etcetera but what impact do they have locally? We are not yet eating CRIN chocolates.

    Our governors for four or eight years could partner more with such institutions for R&D for the benefit of local citizenry. The research institutions are machines needing funding to run smoothly. The IITA stands out, like Professor Happi’s lab, for being massively internationally funded. Nigeria’s R&D needs cannot be met and the country cannot survive or thrive unless the civil service and political class jettison corruption in thought, word and deed in favour of progress. For example, the Makinde government linkages with IITA and other linkages like University of lbadan and other universities should be upgraded and expanded for more local training and wider research benefits from agriculture to traffic control, reaching farmers and solving mounting traffic jams.

    We ignore the research institutions, allowing them to decay, endangering us. AN UNDERUTILIZED R&D INSTITUTION IS AN ABANDONED PROJECT. The 2023-27 tenure requires new research directions. In four years, targeted research can translate into development. Annually universities have numerous local under and post graduate projects requiring translation into developmental action. What a waste. While we rejoice with Professor Happi, who is a brilliant Cameroonian African scientist, we remain unhappy with Nigerian research quality, quantity and use. Let 2023-2027 politics bring more funds and more cooperation in institutional ‘Research & Development’ – a political decision.      

  • Election lessons: Constitutional amendments

    Elections, with some serious crimes of ballot snatching and burning, terrorizing voters, have passed. Sadly, several have died during the exercise-a mere election. Those who sent the criminals are alive with their own children. No answers for the dead or their mourning families?

    Where are the voters?  Over 60% of 87-93m registered voters were nowhere at the elections.

    A party protested that Governor Seyi Makinde had been ‘bribing’ the citizenry by paying the backlog and current salaries and pensions. Governor Makinde who said correctly that he was doing his duty as governor to his employees and his elders. A party or persons not paying salaries and pensions are committing a crime and should not stand or should lose elections. Citizens’ welfare is first and foremost because with no salaries and pensions, the family, the bedrock of the state, and its hierarchy are destroyed, children rise against and ridicule parents and guardians, the extended family fabric is torn and the state disintegrates from within.

    Seyi Makinde has won re-election in a state where citizens do not grant second term easily. He reached across to other parties in neighbouring states to achieve interstate cohesive development – an almost unheard-of progressive strategy in the past and the recommended way forward. Congratulations to Governor Makinde who will continue to shine through concrete achievements because he, with the G5 governors, have experience crossing party lines fighting for North/South rotation and electing our president-elect. Expect great things from Seyi Makinde through interparty collaboration and people-focused performance. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu also won re-election in Lagos and Governor Dapo Abiodun in Ogun. Congratulations. More great things ahead??

    A warning: The electorate must stay involved. Politicians are our employees. We need a ‘NO STANDING LAW’ demanding we sit when they enter and leave a room except for the president. 

    The president signed into law 16 constitutional amendments. Too little too late at the end-of-term-LastMinute.Com?’ But any devolution of financial and development power is progress needing incoming government expansion. Is there a president’s strategy, including the cashless election and non-interference in elections process in expectation of Mo Ibrahim Good Governance Prize of $5m? Will any decisions require budgetary allocation changes in the supervisory federal ministries? And a revenue allocation formula change.

    Hurray, among the most widely significant constitutional amendments were the removal of electricity, railways and correctional services from the exclusive list, sadly, the jealously guarded federal government preserve. It has cost Nigerian development years of backwardness. These items were inserted into the Concurrent List meaning now shared with states and local governments. The journey has been long and tremendous kudos have to be given to all those Nigerians, both federal and states, civil servants, political office holders and social activists who have contributed to the struggle against the ‘Exclusive List Lovers’ objections.    

    The impact on the psychology of most Nigerians will be very positive as most believe that the federal government is overbearing, underserving and incompetent precipitating  a massively and unapologetically ‘failure to deliver’ to a country requiring at least 100,000Mw power.  The country is affected by the cost of alternative energy sources especially petrol and diesel generators and the noise and environmental pollution effects caused.  Every family is affected by repeated power failure suffering educational, health, food, business and social losses and financial costs of incalculable magnitude.

    Every state governor leads a state population larger than 20 or more other countries each of which proves uninterrupted power. Our governors are equivalent to heads of state in their states and responsible for citizens’ basic needs especially 24/7 power supply. Now that this is a shared responsibility perhaps results of 100,000Mw power supply will be achievable in our lifetime? However, there is the recent federal Siemens Masterplan to be accelerated and upscaling renewable energy especially maximizing solar energy use and the quagmire Mambilla Hydroelectric problem needing liberation.

     But above all, we need honest governors who introduce executable plans and projects within their tenure to avoid the evil ‘Abandoned Project Syndrome’ in their states, the bane of development in Nigeria.

    Railway development has suffered and created year-round traffic jams kilometres long while the railway systems rotted. They are now beginning to be upgraded and becoming useful to the citizenry. The strangulating federal government grip has finally been lifted with transfer of powers for intrastate railways to states, though interstate rail appears to remain on federal exclusive list. Half bread is better than none.

    Prison is also changed to Correctional Services and also moved to the concurrent list allowing states to have their own state prisoners and confinement structures. Of course, this will be abused by politicians and those with connections, but it is necessary and long overdue. This is presumably a prelude to the much-awaited State Police Law being enacted early in the life of the next government.

    We are seeing a form of piecemeal devolution of power to the states to reverse the damage to democracy inflicted by the military since 1966. How long will the whole devolution process take? Forever?

    President Buhari and the outgoing National Assembly can take the belated ‘glory’ for kick-starting this devolution of power and reduction in the exclusive list, so debilitating to Nigeria’s development and for not kicking the ball down the road into the next government.

    The constitutional amendments law now makes it compulsory to name ministers and commissioners within 60 days to counter the sometimes one year plus delays by some governments.

  • Labour Party and the curse of structure

    Labour Party and the curse of structure

    Had Peter Obi of the Labour Party heeded the repeated warnings early in his campaign about the lack of structure, that is, grassroots organisations in all states-possibly in the 774 Local Government Areas in the country-his party would have been able to establish some foothold in a number of states over the past weekend, by winning a number of governorship races, at least in the states he won during the presidential election.

    That, however, was not to be, because Obi’s conception of structure relied on a tripod of ethnic support, riding on Igbo version of awa lo kan (it is our turn); the youths, whom he deceived with alluring campaign slogans, such as “taking back our country” and transforming it “from consumption to production”, leading the youths to take him as a messiah; and the churches, riding on assumed backlash of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the All Progressives Congress, featuring Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, who eventually won the presidential election.

    Of course, there were other factors that fueled Obi’s campaign and gave him the illusion of possible victory. One, he got the support of usual suspects in the Southwest (who hardly toe the same line as the majority of their people), namely, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Ayo Adebanjo. Two, sociocultural organizations in the South supported the LP candidate on the argument that an Igbo person should be president, as if such a person wouldn’t need sufficient votes across the country. Three, a number of jaundiced opinion polls projected Obi as winner. When these polls were referred to me for comments, I made three quick observations that, unlike US polls, the Nigerian polls projecting Obi were based on non-existent databases, inadequate sampling, and faulty methodology. Besides, a number of them provided only findings without data.

    Unfortunately, Obi is still riding on the illusion of victory, even after it was clear he lost the election in which he came third and after the first runner-up, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, frankly stated that Obi could never have won the election. To Obi’s credit, however, he once made the rare admission that he was not challenging the outcome of the election but only the process, whatever he meant by that.

    But his protégé in Lagos, Gbadebo Rhodes-FiveFour (oh, -Vivour, but allegedly not from the famous Rhodes family of Lagos), is not only challenging the process; he, too, is claiming he should have won the election in which he came a distant second, scoring 312,329, whereas Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC scored 762,134, which is more than double the LP vote. Moreover, Sanwo-Olu won every local government in the state, except Amuwo-Odofin, where the LP candidate was welcomed with an Igbo song during the campaign. On that occasion, a lady popped her head into the camera to tell viewers that their governor had arrived. Perhaps that event served as his own version of opinion poll, predicting his victory like that of the LP presidential candidate.

    Undoubtedly, Obi’s victory in Lagos, in which he beat the presidential candidate of the APC in his home state, gave the LP governorship candidate the hope of winning the state. However, lack of political experience on the candidate’s part and the absence of a strong political structure in the state remained a major drawback. His supporters went to overdrive on their way to a victory they still had not earned. The candidate’s ethnic group, or is it his mother’s?, threatened to take over Lagos. They wanted to own it, since, as they claimed, it was a “No Man’s Land”. What audacity? It woke up the owners of the land and other right-thinking residents of the State of Excellence to rise up to Sanwo-Olu’s defense. I and many other columnists joined the chorus (see Thinking about Lagos future, The Nation, March 15, 2023). And many residents began to valorize Sanwo-Olu’s performance. Even some #EndSARS youths, who voted for Obi, switched from the LP candidate in Lagos to vote for Sanwo-Olu.

    True, there were isolated cases of disturbances during the governorship election in Lagos, such cases were not limited to the state. Many other states reported similar cases. Nevertheless, the LP candidate in Lagos threw caution to the wind by raising all kinds of allegations, even against the electoral body. This is where Obi’s mentorship is a negative influence on the political process as these are the kinds of attack he has engineered. I wonder what country or state they seek to lead after denigrating same, by discrediting the electoral process and delegitimizing the winners, making Nigeria a laughing stock in the international press.

    Nor should the LP candidate’s electoral loss in Lagos be viewed in isolation. In none of the eleven states Obi won in the presidential election has an LP candidate emerged as winner in the governorship race. It is largely because of lack of structure. Whatever they had by way of party executive in those states was concocted on the road to the presidential election campaign less than a year ago. The only exceptions are Alex Otti and Chijioke Edeoga in Abia and Enugu states, respectively. These are exceptional candidates, who had built their own structures over time. Otti has been running for the governorship in Abia since 2015, while Edeoga was once elected as a Local Government Chairman and a Member of the House of Representatives in Enugu. They only transferred their structures to the LP to assist Obi and, of course, themselves. If they eventually win, it will not be because of Obi but in spite of him.

    Obi’s leadership is questionable in other respects. At no time did he caution his social media Obidients, who maligned other candidates during the campaigns; the pastors, who imposed his candidacy on their congregation; and the ethnic boasters in Lagos, knowing full well that they were inciting the indigenes of the land and other residents. He did not even say a word about the killings in the Southeast in the months leading up to the election. Well, perhaps he had a secret bond with them as all was quiet in order for him to rake in over 90 percent of the votes in the Southeast.

    But all that is history now, although the negative image of Nigeria’s electoral process portrayed by Obi and his like in politics and the media will linger for some time to come. The good news is the elections are over now, and Nigeria has come out triumphant, like ogi funfun (white pap) out of a black pot.

  • Tale of two Nigerian elections

    Tale of two Nigerian elections

    One of the big stories of the 2023 general election cycle was about how former Anambra State governor and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, had become a third force come to disrupt Nigeria’s cosy two party arrangement. But two elections, just three weeks apart, confirm that rumours of a revolution in our politics were grossly exaggerated.

    The outcome of the February 25 presidential contest rubbished all opinion polls which predicted a sweeping victory for Obi even in the most unlikely of places. More conservative voices had suggested that the Labour flagbearer would struggle to meet the constitutional requirement of winning twenty five percent of votes cast in 24 states given his very weak support in the North.

    That turned out to be the case. However, he did exceed expectations as those who pointed at the weak structures of his party believed he would only do well in his Southeast homeland. But he broke out – winning majorities in several South-South and North-Central states.

    That stronger than expected performance had Obi laying claim to the presidential prize despite the umpire confirming he came a modest third. On the strength of the buzz generated, many awaited confirmation on March 18 during the gubernatorial polls, that he and his Obidients had come to stay as the predicted third force.

    As I write this, Labour is in a desperate fight to claim Abia State. Elsewhere, including most notably Lagos, the coalition that delivered the famous February 25 upset win had scattered. Even in his home state of Anambra where his movement was expected to punish Governor Chukwuma Soludo for having the audacity to question Obi’s bid, the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) coasted home with a comfortable majority in the House of Assembly.

    So how did the Obi wave disappear in a little over a fortnight? Was this just a personality cult that took on a life of its own with blood transfusion from an ethnic group’s political aspirations? Was this just an opportunistic arrangement that took advantage of a very strange environment leading to the elections? Who goes to electoral battle by dealing the same electorate whose favour they seek with a calamitous cash crunch? Obi and Atiku Abubakar actually hailed the Central Bank’s naira confiscation gambit.

    Even his popularity with young people in the run-up to the polls suggested opportunism. At 62, he was no spring chicken. But a demographic fed up with the leading parties saw in the sixty-something someone younger than the two septuagenarians heading the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) tickets.

    He was wildly popular with Christians because religion became a hot button issue the moment the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu made the strategic choice to run with Senator Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim from the northeastern Borno State. This was a risky and controversial move given that, conventionally, parties balance their tickets along religious and regional lines.

    But it wasn’t an unprecedented one because in 1993, the Southern Muslim candidate of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief M. K. O. Abiola, successfully ran with Babagana Kingibe, again, from Borno State, who shared his faith.

    Tinubu’s decision to travel the same route as Abiola unleashed the hounds of hell. Some of his closest Christian supporters from the North like former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal, broke loudly and publicly with him. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and its affiliates were not far behind. Their furious reactions showed quickly that the APC candidate had a major problem on his hands.

    Sensing an opening to be exploited, Obi quickly took his campaign to the church, embarking on a whistle stop tour of prominent Pentecostal congregations. He was often welcomed with cheers that shook the rafters. On one of those occasions, he challenged the church to “take back your country.” The body language of pastors of these mega churches made it clear they were delighted with him.

    Tapping into the rich vein of religiously intolerance which had built up between 1993 and 2024 would yield massive dividends for the Labour candidate as we would soon see. The amazing thing is the other side of the faith divide didn’t take up the bait by urging their followers to ‘either take back or defend their country.’

    Even up to the eve of the polls most political commentators were largely dismissive of Obi chances, pointing to the lack of nationwide penetration by his Labour Party. They missed how riled up the Christian population had become because of APC’s same faith ticket. They underestimated the influence that powerful Pentecostal preachers had on their congregations – many of whom were blackmailed to toe the denominational line.

    Perhaps those who came closest to identifying what was going on were a series of polls which suggested than beyond disruption, Obi would go on to win by lopsided margins. One or two even predicted he would triumph in Lagos, Tinubu’s fortress which he has defended successfully against all forms of encroachment for over two decades. It was unthinkable and many laughed them to scorn because the pollsters mostly took limited online samples.

    But on February 25, the unimaginable happened. Tinubu’s territory was breached with the unheralded Obi eking out a roughly 10,000 vote majority. That wasn’t the entire story. A party that wasn’t expected to do well beyond the Southeast, triumphed in key South-South and Middle Belt states. In the end Labour won in 12 states just like the bigger APC and PDP.

    It was a stunning performance. It was as if the end had truly come for the powers-that-be. It gave hope to Obi supporters who had celebrated the polls as evidence that their insurgency against the old political order was about to be brought to a successful conclusion. So, while they found themselves in a disappointing third place in the presidential contest, they could console themselves with pinching Tinubu’s Lagos crown jewel as well as winning governorships in a swathe of Southeast, South-South and North-Central states.

    More than that, Obi and Obi-dients who truly believed they won the presidential election had an opportunity to prove that their performance on February 25 wasn’t a fluke. Some of them urged their members to turn up in large numbers on March 18 to crush those who had “stolen their mandate.”

    While many have been very generous in their plaudits for the former Anambra governor and his efforts, clearly what happened in Lagos and elsewhere must be put in proper perspective. Everyone loves a romantic story and there was none more seductive than an unheralded billionaire figure with a reputation for frugal living taking on entrenched political forces and overthrowing them. It was a narrative that foreign correspondents lapped up and regurgitated.

    Some even called the events of February 25 a revolution that was televised. March 18 would show that there was nothing revolutionary about what played out three weeks earlier. Rather, we just had affirmation that the same factors that have always driven Nigerian politics are ever so present.

    I have touched on religion but ethnicity was also a powerful factor. For the first time in a long while, the candidates were from the three most populous groups in the country. It was no surprise when each did well in their home base. Former Vice President Atiku President did extremely well in the Northeast, Tinubu performed well across the Southwest. But Obi’s performance in the Southeast was astounding. In some states he scored more than 90% of votes cast. In modern times the only places where that used to happen was in the old Soviet Union or Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.  It was all down to a region embracing one of their own.

    When that factor was taken out of the equation on March 18, when the issues became local even within tribal enclaves, we had totally different outcomes. In Imo State, where Obi won over 80% just three weeks ago, his Labour was wiped out; the ruling APC took 25 out of 27 Assembly seats. In Ebonyi, the ruling party retained the governorship comfortably. This state is particularly interesting because while it gave Obi and Labour near total support in the presidential election, in the simultaneous National Assembly poll APC took the three senatorial seats.

    Clearly, what occurred three weeks ago was just an opportunistic political foray that was going nowhere. In the end it blocked the PDP’s path back to power and helped elect Tinubu as the much-vilified Soludo had predicted.

    One day is a long time in politics, three weeks a life time. The events of the last 21 days are an object lesson in the folly of drawing hasty conclusions about Nigeria’s power games. Suffice it to say the structures Obi swore he had come to overthrow remain firmly in place. His legions have scattered in different directions. That’s another way of saying the disruption just got disrupted.

  • Thinking about Lagos future

    Thinking about Lagos future

    Since the return to democracy in 1999, the future of Lagos state has been determined at the polling station once every four years. Not once since that year has Lagos departed from the progressive tradition and development template laid down by the first administration. The template includes educational expansion from primary to tertiary level; expansion of basic and specialist healthcare facilities, including a university teaching hospital and a health insurance scheme; expansion of transportation facilities, including massive road networks and the Bus Rapid Transport and Rail systems; improvement in public utilities, including drainage and garbage disposal systems; industrial expansion; guaranteeing security of lives and property; enhancing food security through agricultural expansion; creating a Free Trade Zone; reclaiming land from the sea and the lagoon; and even creating a new city in the City.

    In order to accommodate the phenomenal growth these expansions entail, a robust policy was developed to grow the state’s Internally Generated Revenue from a few hundreds to billions of Naira per month. Consequently, like California in the United States, Lagos outstripped other states in Nigeria to become the fifth largest economy in Africa.

    There is no reason to depart from this template when Lagos residents go to the polls again this Saturday, March 18, 2023. For one thing, the present Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the All Progressives Congress, has performed creditably well. Moreover, it is only reasonable to allow him to leverage his party’s return to power at the centre by giving him a second term.

    To be sure, it is important to examine the candidates critically, while also looking far into the future. The questions to ask include the following: What administrative expertise, governance experience, and knowledge of the state does the candidate bring to the executive position? What succession trajectory does his election portend? In these insecure, austere, and divisive times, can the candidate achieve security of lives and property, boost the economy, and bring Lagos residents together, rather than divide them? Finally, hasn’t the incumbent Governor performed well enough to avoid risking a neophyte? Whether or not Lagos voters have reflected on these questions, they will find the rest of this piece useful in convincing or reassuring them.

    My own reflection began three years ago, when I devoted one of my weekly columns to the City of Lagos, by awarding it the Person of the Year 2020 (see Lagos: Person of the Year 2020, The Nation, December 23, 2020). The inspiration for the piece came from my assessment of the outstanding job done by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu in overcoming the trifecta of problems that befell Lagos in that year alone. Below are edited excerpts from the essay:

    “First, as the location of the first and busiest airport in the nation, Lagos became host to the index case of COVID-19 from Italy on February 28, 2020. The early adoption of mitigation measures notwithstanding, the City soon became the epicentre of the pandemic.

    True, Governor Sanwo-Olu exhibited exemplary leadership in leading the state’s COVID-19 team, but the City could not escape its susceptibility to the pandemic, given the various open local markets; the garrulous gatherings at motor parks, and other crowded spaces; the myriad artisans, professing various skills; and the back and forth movement of people from other states and foreign lands. … For these and other reasons, COVID-19 found good hosts in Lagos.

    But Sanwo-Olu pushed on, imposing and lifting bans, issuing warnings upon warnings, distributing palliatives, and keeping the people informed at every stage. Isolation centres, with adequate bed spaces and necessary equipment sprang up all over the place, even in the middle of a stadium. Some private hospitals were equipped and approved as Isolation Centres. Even those who could isolate at home were assisted in doing so. Lagos soon became the model for combating COVID-19 in the country, indeed in Africa.

    Second, just as Sanwo-Olu’s efforts were turning into a huge success story, with infection rates going down significantly, the #EndSARS protests marched in to afflict the otherwise resilient City. Like COVID-19, Lagos was the headquarters of the protests. Motorists suffered, because roadways were blocked, and businesses suffered, because customers could not reach them. Lagos was in the middle of another nightmare.

    Sanwo-Olu stepped in again, mingling with the protesters and listening to their demands. In his T-shirt and boyish look, he trudged the crowd of protesters. They threw things at him. Yet he volunteered to be their messenger and took their demands to Abuja. He got a presidential nod for them. But things were about to turn uglier for Lagos.

    Third, a miscue about the timing of the curfew to limit the duration of the protest led to the early arrival of the military at the Lekki Toll Gate. Although the event of that night remains controversial, its aftermath is not. Lagos was bombarded by hoodlums, miscreants, looters, and all. Within 48 hours, many policemen were killed and notable businesses and government structures were destroyed and looted, including the High Court, City Hall, the Palace of the Oba of Lagos, 84 BRT buses, several bus terminals, LGA Secretariats, and at least 25 police stations.

    Remarkably, within hours, Governor Sanwo-Olu was at it again. He inspected all the sites of destruction and ordered the immediate cleanup of the City. Within days, Lagos opened its eyes again from premature sleep.

    At the end of the day, having traversed and surmounted the City’s difficulties, Governor Sanwo-Olu became Lagos. Just as the infection rate in the City began to spike on the advent of the second wave of COVID-19, he tested positive for the virus and went into isolation.”

    The events described above occurred during the second year of Sanwo-Olu’s tenure. Beginning with repairs to government structures, he has since made significant advances in the development of Lagos state, especially in security; education; healthcare; agriculture; social welfare; and massive infrastructural development.

    As Sanwo-Olu seeks a second term, a few ongoing or planned projects stand out in need of consolidation, commencement, or completion: The newly established universities; the Imota rice mill in Ikorodu-the largest in Africa; the metro rail system, beginning with the Blue Line already inaugurated; the Fourth Mainland Bridge; ICT hubs and tech startups; and continued fulfillment of the promise of the Lekki Free Trade Zone with an airport and a deep seaport.

    Against the above backgrounds, Lagos voters, especially Lagosians, the elite, and the teeming youth population, have every reason to be hopeful. Given his track record and commitment, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC is set to fulfill that hope. He deserves your vote.

  • Cashless Policy- A ‘Cash Famine’ in Nigeria?  

    Cashless Policy- A ‘Cash Famine’ in Nigeria?  

    Remember INEC is mostly faithful, loyal and honest but can improve.  However, it was not INEC but politicians and parties who are unfaithful, disloyal and dishonest by hacking INEC’s server 200 times, and using various thugs, violent and vicious voter inflation/reduction tactics, even election day murder.

    Let the 60 million registered voters who did not vote please vote in the governorship election. An unfaithful, disloyal and dishonest governor will not pay salaries and pensions and will ruin lives. Vote wisely on March 18.

     Across Nigeria are hugely deleterious effects of the too long drawn-out ‘FG/CBN Cashless-/Naira Redesign Policy’ war with its ‘return of old naira’ deadline as a cash reduction strategy. Is it a good policy gone wrong? Supposedly it was a brief war but is now causing chronic cashlessness.

    The philosophy is rumoured to have included strategies to achieve reduction in availability and value of cash available to, firstly, politicians to influence elections and secondly, criminals, especially the N100m cash kidnappers. The effect on the main shareholders – the citizens and vast majority were grossly underestimated. This was apparently to be achieved by wiping out the value of any suspected secret cash saved for election manipulation and by criminals and kidnappers and preventing the funds entering the banking system, thus rendering such money zero value. The strategy apparently also included the reduction of the new notes cash available from banks to all politicians and criminals and citizens alike.

    The other goals apparently included forcing many millions more citizens to begin to use the underequipped banking system. Not everyone with money is a thief as they become their own banks. Also, large areas of Nigeria suffer from no banking services or Nigeria operates huge ‘daily paid’ network systems. Even those with internet banking suffered from poor facilities due to migrating (japaed) Nigerian IT professionals.

    The tragedy of errors included a criminal underassessment of the huge non-banked good-citizen-honest-cash-business component nationwide which is actually probably 90-95% of funds use in Nigeria. This means that to ‘reform politics and some citizen corruption’ affecting 1-5-10% or less of daily funds, the decision was made to severely restrict 100% of citizenry’s accounts/funds access. This was to be achieved by [? illegally] severely restricting citizen’s access to their own personal and corporate cash needs in legally earned and legally deposited, punishing the citizenry for the sins of the few -the political class.  This is destroying the house while trying to kill a snake.  

    This has been a cash-abuse war and financial war and all citizens are the victims, the cannon-fodder, traumatized. Some say politicians do not have the billions and anyway they have always bought some electorate through vote-buying. So what? A despicable but apparently un-eradicable stain on our election strategies. Some say they, politicians, have already converted naira to dollars and only change to naira pre-election and are immune to any cash policy antics and as kidnappers will now demand dollars, so why bother?

    Politicians holding dollars may be why the naira is so weak and why over years CBN measures fail to prop up the naira especially on the black market.

    Reasons and rational thinking however become insignificant when the results are revealed. A good plan can be spoilt by circumstance. A bad plan can become a disaster by circumstance. The citizens are punished for the sins of politicians by a strategy which totally underestimated the national banking, cash flow and political structure.

    The effort has worsened into ‘Cash Deprivation’ in a ‘Tragedy of Economic and Political Errors’ negatively affecting almost all Nigerians. These errors are economic and political. Initially the not-so-bright idea of limitation of over-the-counter cash in a ‘Daily Cash-Limitation Of N20,000 New Notes’ quickly deteriorated, due to poor funding including hoarding, favouritism, under-distribution and unavailability of new notes which turned into ‘No New Cash Of Any Kind Anywhere’. Even new money which reached the citizens was mopped up in exchange for transfers with no money returning to banks. The CBN had not calculated in a wide enough window of excess funds to compensate for cunningness of the desperate in need of finance be they in politics, business or criminality. Desperate appeals to government finally reintroduced old notes of almost wastepaper quality to fill the gap from a surprising absence of new notes.

    The Supreme Court has confirmed the validity of old notes to Dec 31. Will the order be obeyed in word only or in word and deed? Is it too little too late? Some banks are paying out but refuse to accept old notes.  The new notes are nowhere. Did politicians and the wealthy really commandeer most of them on day one? Hunger and signs of starvation abound. Only citizen resilience has saved us from a complete national shut down following the shutdown of cash in an economy used to petty cash daily.   Today petty cash is not petty.

    It is certain that the policy, even if noble and anti-corruption when conceived on paper, in practice is a financial disaster, damaging personal, family, business and the national economy in current  implementation – a tragedy -a ‘Tragic Cashless/Naira Redesign Policy’. The terrible effect is visibly in every pocket and stomach- all empty. It was predicted that we would have a near famine due to farmland violence.  Instead of famine we have a totally CBN-made ‘Cash Famine’ with ‘Food But No Cash’ everywhere. This has deteriorated into a war without weapons. But then cash is a real weapon of war!

  • How to become President of Nigeria

    How to become President of Nigeria

    An interesting strand in Antonio Gramsci’s popular theory of hegemony is the process by which a leader (or more precisely a ruling class) attains or maintains power by building alliances across various classes and social groupings. In multi-ethnic nations, such as Nigeria, such alliances will have to be built across regions, ethnic groups, faiths, and various unions and associations. Any leader or political party that succeeds in building such alliances in Nigeria will be on the way to electoral victory. This was clearly demonstrated by the victory of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during the presidential election of February 25, 2023.

    Unfortunately, however, the focus on a few shortcomings during the election and the attendant rhetoric of failure dwarfed the election’s major gains. To be sure, some of these gains have been discussed as part of post-election analysis. However, discussions have been limited to obvious gains, such as the widening of the political space beyond two major political parties to a three-, if not four-horse race; large youth participation and their influence on the race; and the role of technology, specifically, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, in checkmating over-voting and the practice by which powerful politicians generated desired results for themselves.

    However, a major, but neglected, lesson from the election, which demands close attention, emanates from Tinubu’s path to victory, which highlights the key role of alliances in the attainment and maintenance of power in a diverse society, such as ours. In order to appreciate the lesson, it is necessary to review the path Tinubu had treaded.

    Unlike Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who relied heavily on Christians and his ethnic group, spearheaded by Igbo youths, or Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, who could not even maintain inherited alliances, Tinubu took his time in forging alliances. He had been at it since he ran for Senate and won in 1992 and later joined forces with pro-democracy activists from 1993 through 1998, even while he was in exile. However, it was his election as Governor of Lagos State that led to a resurgence of his bridge-building activities, which became a preoccupation after he left office.

    He established a political party after the seeming death of the Alliance for Democracy. With the political party, Action Congress, later renamed Action Congress of Nigeria, Tinubu widened his base beyond Lagos to encompass the entire Southwest zone. By 2013, the party’s power base had spread to Edo, Kogi, Bauchi, Plateau, Niger, and Adamawa, each of which had at least a Governor or a member in the National Assembly. Two different candidates from the North, Atiku Abubakar (2007) and Nuhu Ribadu (2011), even ran for President on ACN platform.

    But Tinubu was not done. He went ahead for a much broader base by joining forces with others to form the merger of ACN with the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, which gave birth to the APC. His perceived role in the merger earned him the title of National Leader of APC, ostensibly conferred upon him by the press. The formation of the APC took Tinubu across the country, while many others visited his Bourdillon residence in droves. In the process, he succeeded in building alliances across regions, ethnic groups, unions and associations, and faith-based organizations, such as churches and mosques. The experience accelerated Tinubu’s coalition building on a national scale.

    The coalition was first successfully deployed to propel Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015 and re-election in 2019. It was Buhari’s failure to build such a coalition that led to his failed bid for the presidency on three previous occasions.

    By the time Tinubu announced his run for the presidency in late 2021, he had established political structures in every state of the country. But he did not rest on his oars. He embarked on the campaign for his party nomination well before any other aspirant, building networks of supporters and garnering endorsements. He also embarked on a gruesome campaign schedule after winning the party primary. Unlike Atiku, Tinubu reconciled with co-contestants for the party’s presidential ticket. He covered more grounds than any other presidential candidate and sought local and international perspectives on how to run a successful presidential campaign. The result was a most comprehensive manifesto and a well organized campaign.

    Rooted firmly in the alliances he had built, Tinubu was able to challenge sinister efforts within his own party to truncate his nomination. The challenge was met with a chorus of support, especially from Northern Governors. He even opposed policies supported by the President of his own party, such as the Naira redesign policy, leading his allies to approach the Supreme Court over the policy and winning a victory for the people. During the campaign, Tinubu also boldly led the conversations on other critical matters of state, such as fuel scarcity, removing fuel subsidy, and unifying the foreign exchange regime. On these national issues, his opponents either followed his lead, waffled or said nothing. Only a bold candidate with a nation-wide support base could have taken on some of these issues.

    Tinubu’s alliances are evident in the spread of his votes: He won the majority of votes. He is the only candidate who won at least one state in each of five of the six zones.  He also won 25 percent of the votes in 30 states. No other candidate had similar spread or met the 24-state threshold.

    The pattern of Tinubu’s votes is better appreciated in comparison to those of his competitors. For example, while Obi relied heavily on ethnic and Christian votes, Tinubu garnered votes across regions, ethnic groups, and faiths. Obi is the only candidate who won every state in his zone. He is also the only candidate whose zone did not allow any other candidate to have the required 25 percent of the votes.

    Furthermore, while Obi won Lagos (Tinubu’s home state) with 582,454 votes, Tinubu only managed to garner a mere 5,111 votes in Anambra (Obi’s home state)! Yet, a Tinubu supporter was allegedly shot dead in Onitsha in Obi’s home state for celebrating Tinubu’s victory. The sad incident brings into sharper focus Hon. Ginika Tor’s tale of intimidation of APC supporters in the Southeast during the presidential election (see How we were prevented from voting Tinubu in the Southeast, The Nation, March 5, 2023).

    It will be rewarding to investigate voter suppression in the Southeast in order to understand what happened to Tinubu’s allies in the zone.