Festus Eriye

DO groups like the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Afenifere and Ohanaeze N’digbo established to promote ancient ethnic and regional agendas, have any real political clout in today’s world?

Not much, if you read the cutting reaction of President Muhammadu Buhari’s spokesman, Femi Adesina, to NEF’s negative assessment of the administration’s performance – especially with regards to the current crisis of insecurity.

Adesina dismissed the elders as paper tigers and the group as, in reality, just a one-man show.

The brutal putdown notwithstanding, truth is these so-called ethnic sociocultural groups don’t have much of an influence on who triumphs at the ballot box. Their press statements make for colourful headlines in newspapers and arresting soundbites – but that’s as far as it goes.

Which is not to say that their views are always without merit. Let’s not forget that many of their members are accomplished people with lots of experience in government. The only problem is today’s Nigeria is the product of their service years.

I can understand the presidency being irked by NEF giving a fail grade to Buhari on every front. But no one witnessing the resurgence of Boko Haram attacks in the Northeast would say the administration’s record with regard to security is anything but a mixed bag.

On Sunday, the insurgents killed 30 travellers at a military gate just 24 kilometres from Maiduguri, the Borno State capital. Despite the government’s repeated claims of degrading the terrorists, they retain the ability to carry out these sorts of attacks – putting to question the premature claims of victory.

But the Northern elders’ statement wasn’t just about the president who they have given up on as a lost cause; it was also about anticipating a post-Buhari era.

They spoke about the sort of presidential candidate they would support at the 2023 elections. The lucky individual would be someone with genuine commitment to deal with the north’s problems and meet its aspirations

The group didn’t define what the region’s interests are but her woes are all too evident for the world to see. A new World Bank report titled ‘Advancing Social Protection in a Dynamic Nigeria’ released on January 28, 2020, claims that the North accounts for 87% of all poor people in country going by 2016 figures.

Interestingly, NEF didn’t commit to backing another northerner for president in three years’ time. This runs counter to the stealth campaign being pushed by a tendency within the region’s political elite for whom, suddenly, zoning has become an anachronism.

It is laudable that the group is sending early warning it would not support people on basis of their region or wealth. It has also warned politicians with a sense of entitlement against assuming they would get automatic backing.

Let me reiterate that the likes of NEF would not have much of a say in determining who picks the ticket of the two mainstream parties – APC and PDP. Still, their intervention is useful for guiding national debate about emerging trends.

One such pattern is the increasingly loud whispers of those who believe it is in the best interest of the North to keep the presidency even after Buhari would have held office for eight unbroken years.

I acknowledge that all Nigerians, irrespective of their ethnicity have the constitutional right to aspire to the highest office in the land. But those pushing this agenda are so insensitive and blinded by their ambition that there’s no consideration for the devastating impact their scheming would have for unity in a nation of diverse ethnicities as Nigeria.

The convention in recent years has been rotation of power between the old North-South divide. That formula was briefly interrupted by the unscripted demise of former President Umaru Yar’Adua.

It was a development that not even the clairvoyant could have predicted. The nation had to manage the unprecedented by developing a doctrine of necessity to smoothen then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan’s path to power.

Some tried to shove Jonathan aside on grounds that the North had not exhausted its two terms. But they ran into a brick wall in an incumbent president who wanted to exercise his right to run.

Jonathan has come and gone and still NEF can make this devastating claim about the performance of a president of northern extraction:

“Poverty, particularly in the North, and massive social security have worsened under this administration. The relationship between insecurity and poverty is fundamental, but the administration does not appear to have any idea on what will provide relief or solution.”

It’s not just about Buhari. There’s no evidence showing how the north ruling Nigeria for more years, in both military and civilian dispensations, than people from other parts has had any lasting positive impact on the region. Instead, the result is the sort of sorry World Bank statistics quoted earlier.

Contrary to what some would have you believe, being president is no guarantee of a better life for your people. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s incumbency had little or no physical benefits for his immediate locality of Ogun State or the wider Southwest zone.

Similarly, Jonathan’s almost six years in office didn’t make much of a difference in Bayelsa State, neither did it transform the larger Niger Delta region. It may have made a few political types emergency billionaires, but the larger population remains as impoverished as ever.

The biggest problem facing the North isn’t how to retain the presidency, but how to reclaim its land from the demons that have seized it. The region has become a terrain where life is short and brutish. If it is not Boko Haram fighters unleashing another incident of mindless killing, it is a new wave of cruel bandits maiming and murdering, or it is bloodletting between farmers and herdsmen.

What the North needs now is not another ambitious egotist who wants to enjoy the pomp and circumstance of the presidency. What it needs urgently is restoration of peace, reconstruction and regeneration of its devastated lands and populace.

By Festus Eriye

Kano State has gifted Nigeria some of her most colourful and interesting political characters. Aminu Kano was noted for his radical politics and self-effacing lifestyle; Abubakar Rimi for his eloquence and populism. Sabo Bakin Zuwo was also a populist with a comic turn.

To that special list we can now add the Majority Leader of the House of Representatives, Alhassan Ado Doguwa. Last Thursday, he returned triumphantly to the House of Representatives having won the rerun election in his Doguwa-Tudun Wada Federal Constituency comfortably.

A few days before, just down the corridor in the National Assembly, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, had sparked an urgent national debate by declaring that our security architecture cannot address the insecurity challenges confronting the nation.

His remarks came amidst rising tension over high profile executions of hostages by Boko Haram, as well as other mindless killings and kidnappings by faceless bandits across the land.

It was against this backdrop that Doguwa made his oratorical outing on the floor of the House.

Giddy with excitement, he boasted to wild cheers that he was not called a ‘powerful parliamentarian’ for nothing. He added that his power wasn’t limited to the National Assembly’s precincts. ‘I am also powerful at home,’ he declared.

At which point he produced evidence of his might on the home front – four wives who were introduced to the chamber. ‘I deal with four women,’ he announced to great mirth among his colleagues. But there was more. These women had between them already given him 27 children and he was still counting, he said.

Actually, Doguwa understated his power. As a representative, indeed Majority Leader, in addition to being powerful at home and House of Representatives, he is also powerful before the larger populace who expect his likes to be an example.

Many lawmakers had a good laugh at Doguwa comic moment. But I doubt whether everyone present in that chamber was amused.

There are distinguished women achievers who would have taken exception to women being portrayed as just baby machines. I suspect that even men would have been cringing with embarrassment – hoping he would quickly clam up.

His outburst gives us a peep into his mind-set and makes you shudder at the quality of legislation which a chamber he leads and influences would produce.

No Nigerian law bars him from having 27 or 40 children. Actually, he still has a long way to go in the virility contest to catch up with Mohammed Masaba, the late Muslim cleric from Niger State who reportedly had 89 wives and over 180 children.

The legislator would most likely use the allowance of religion to justify his marital and procreation choices. I understand that his faith allows you four wives if you can treat them equally – a virtually impossible task.

Doguwa is in good shape because as a federal lawmaker he can comfortably take care of his brood. The same cannot be said of a beggar who hiding under faith follows his example and indulges himself with several wives who end up producing multiple children he can’t cater for. In quick order they are soon deployed into the family business of begging and become a social menace.

This same point was made by the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, in remarks he made at the convocation ceremony of the Federal University, Gusau, sometime in January.

He argued that the culture of marrying more than one wife by those who could not properly take care of a single wife and producing many children was the main reason why the northern region would continue to remain backward and in abject poverty.

It is interesting that across the Muslim world average family size is nowhere near what our ‘powerful parliamentarian’ is creating. According to UN statistics for 2017, the average household in Saudi Arabia was 5.6 persons, Egypt 4.1, Morocco 4.6 and Indonesia 4.0 to mention a few. The highest numbers were recorded in Oman and Afghanistan with an average of eight persons.

Sanusi’s point also has relevance down south as there are many Nigerians who are still breeding without regards to how they would they would cater for the lives they are bringing into the world. Even if they don’t end up with a pan on the streets, they become a burden to their immediate family and acquaintances.

Imagine what it would do to a country like ours that already has a population crisis if just 20 million Nigerians decide to copy Doguwa’s example and chuck 27 more persons per family into our midst.

On reflection, those who had a good laugh would realise that rather than being hilarious, Doguwa’s lap of honour was in reality disastrous

You would expect that a senior lawmaker would be concerned that even at today’s numbers we don’t have the resources to provide enough schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure for our population. Even if we had all the cash in the world it is virtually impossible to build facilities to match the speed at which humans reproduce.

As I wrote in a piece on Nigeria’s population last year, we could well be over 300 million people by 2050. The scary part about these projections is that while we are multiplying, the nation’s landmass remains static at approximately 923,768 square kilometres – or even less if you take out what we lost in the Bakassi Peninsula.

A significant chunk of this space is uninhabitable – given climate change and the relentless encroachment of the Sahara Desert.

We are already noticing the impact as dislocated people seeking succour down south, compete for land and limited resources with the locals.

Many have attributed the spate of kidnapping, armed robbery, insurgency, farmer-herder conflict to the rate of population growth.

These are the critical issues which should occupy the National Assembly and not wasting precious time listening to a politician regaling us about his virility or boasting about power for power sake.

On reflection, those who had a good laugh would realise that rather than being hilarious, Doguwa’s lap of honour was in reality disastrous.

Festus ERIYE

ON Monday, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, a friend of the administration, stated the obvious. Our security architecture cannot tackle terrorism or the mindless killings happening across the country. In other words, the existing system has failed.

It is not a diagnosis the leadership of Nigeria’s security establishment would agree with. They are always quick to point to Boko Haram no longer bombing Abuja and major cities as evidence of improvement.

The Police hierarchy encourage you to ignore ‘shrill’ headlines about kidnappings and brutal killings, assuring you that crime statistics for Nigeria compare favourably with the so-called havens of peace across the globe.

But it is easy to play games with figures because statistics don’t bleed, human beings do. When they do, gruesome headlines about their travails testify that whatever numbers are being bandied in officialdom, our reality is increasingly scary.

Last Sunday, gunmen killed 15 people in Plateau State. On the same night in Kaduna, unknown assailants suspected to be kidnappers attacked a vehicle carrying travellers at Raigasa train station. They kidnapped two people and in a matter of hours contacted the family demanding N20 million ransom.

Barely 24 hours before these incidents, 11 people were killed and four women kidnapped as another band of gunmen attacked five communities in Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State.

Between Friday night and Saturday morning in Juji community, Chikun Local Government Area of Kaduna State, an estimated 50-member gang of bandits killed a vigilante and abducted a doctor’s wife and children.

A week ago, gloating Boko Haram terrorists announced they had beheaded Rev. Lawan Andimi, abducted chairman of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in Michika Local Government Area of Adamawa State.

This shocking development, coming as news broke of the execution by the same group of Daciya Dalep – a student of the University of Maiduguri – shocked even an increasingly jaded and desensitised nation.

From the Northeast to the Northwest, gun-toting criminals are going their merry way killing and maiming unhindered – with the police and military limited in what they can do. The only bright spot appears to be the Zamfara axis where the activities of bandits have been trending down.

It is no surprise that the Senate is today debating worsening insecurity. The executive branch might be tempted to be defensive, as the discussion would appear to be a negative assessment of their performance in the area of safeguarding the lives of Nigeria.

They should resist the temptation. The country is facing a security crisis the type we’ve never known in our history.

The challenge isn’t insurmountable but the authorities first need to admit that we have a problem.

That is why the government’s initial legalistic posturing over the ‘Operation Amotekun’ initiative in the Southwest didn’t make sense. If anything, Nigeria needs to throw more Amotekuns at the problem in all six geopolitical zones.

This is a crisis that requires creative thinking and new ideas. Hopefully, the National Assembly can lead the way by appropriating adequate resources to fight insecurity.

Given the level of our development it is understandable that government would be focused on spending more on provision of infrastructure, healthcare and education. But no development can happen where there is no security. Schools cannot operate normally when insurgents can sweep in one night and pinch hundreds of students as we saw in the Chibok girls saga.

So, given the gargantuan challenge on our hands, a good place to start is to look at the size and effectiveness of our national security spending.

It is no secret that the police and military are under-funded. But we also know that in the last dispensation, billions of naira voted for fighting the insurgency were misappropriated by those assigned to supervise spending.

But fear of mismanagement shouldn’t shroud the fact that we need more police, soldiers and other security agents to throw at the problem. We need to finance equipment and armament to prosecute an unconventional type of war.

Nigeria has a grave problem with porous borders and ungoverned spaces – especially across the northern geopolitical zones. There’s no alternative to investing in technological solutions as we can never have enough men under arms to police our massive landmass. This is imperative because even the insurgents are investing in this area – acquiring drones.

There is no standard template for national budgeting anywhere in the world. Countries allocate resources relative to their priorities and challenges. In the US and across the West defence spending plummeted as the Cold War thawed. But today, with an eye on defending her national interests and fighting terrorist threats around the world, the hawkish President Donald Trump is splashing the cash.

Unfortunately, cash is one thing that is short supply for the government. It is borrowing to finance its spending plans and may not even be able to fund the entire budget. Still, it must procure the tools for fighting the war. This would require creative solutions working with friends and partners to provide the arms we need.

Among other possible solutions, former Minister of Internal Affairs, General Abdurrahman Dambazzau (rtd) had indicated back in 2017 that government was toying with idea of establishing a National Guard.

His disclosure attracted negative reactions given that the idea was first broached in the dying days of former President Ibrahim Babangida’s administration. It died a swift death as it was perceived as a vehicle for him to perpetuate himself in office.

Beyond that, many have argued quite correctly, that the multiplicity of security agencies has not solved the problem of insecurity. Adding one more may not change the situation dramatically. More so when we’ve not been able to adequately fund existing ones.

Still, we cannot dismiss any idea at this point. With the police incapable of containing new strains of violent internal conflicts, does it not make sense to have a force that sits midway between them and the military in the use of force and aggression to contain threats? They would free the police to focus on core duties and the military to tackle external threats.

The time is ripe for a beauty contest of ideas – everything from Amotekun to the Guard is welcome – if they can help us sleep with two eyes closed.

By Festus Eriye

Until the dramatic intervention of the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, not many would have described the Western Nigeria Security Network codenamed Operation Amotekun, as the first step towards breaking up the country.

His declaration that the project was illegal as policing was the exclusive preserve of the Federal Government, conjured a crisis where there was none.

The Amotekun project grew out of a security crisis in the Southwest that has seen killer herdsmen and kidnappers sweeping through the region. Peaceful hamlets where violent incidents were few and far between suddenly became theatres for mindless bloodletting such that villagers became too frightened to go their farms.

For all their assurances and reassurances, the Nigeria Police were in no shape to provide adequate security for the people.

Matters came to ahead in July last year with the high-profile killing of the daughter of Afenifere leader, Chief Reuben Fasoranti, on a highway somewhere in the Ondo State.

As the region’s governors and political leaders beat a bush path to the old man’s door to console him, an angry citizenry demanded answers from a central government that only had canned words of comfort to give.

President Muhammadu Buhari could offer his ritual press statement and move on, but not so the governors whose territory had been turned into killing fields. As chief security officers of their states they had to come up solutions and their consultations produced the Amotekun concept.

It is inconceivable that they would have nurtured the project to the point of take-off without adequate consultations with the security agencies and political authorities in Abuja. This much has been confirmed by a couple of governors.

It can also be argued that were there serious misgivings on the part of the president and his closest advisers, promoters of the scheme would have been more circumspect before committing significant financial resources to the project.

So, rather than Malami’s constitution excuse, everything suggests that the sudden hostility from the centre has to do with politics and the morbid fear of a national break-up. It is an eerie coincidence that the controversy is boiling over exactly 50 years after the end of the civil war. 

When a figure like former Kaduna State Governor, Balarabe Musa, who in the past made pretensions to being a progressive politician, makes the incendiary claim that Operation Amotekun is designed to bring about an Oduduwa Republic, you don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

Miyetti Allah Kautal Houre – a faction of the Fulani socio-cultural organisation – even went as far as warning the Southwest that it should forget the presidency in 2023 if it presses ahead with the project.

But nothing about the promoters of Amotekun lends credence to these insinuations. All the governors are dyed-in-the-wool establishment types and anything but fire-eating revolutionaries or separatists. Seyi Makinde of Oyo State even belongs to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) not given to making common cause with the APC.

Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, would be more concerned with securing a second term at this year’s governorship elections in his state, than in midwifing a secessionist movement to nowhere.

There is no sense in the region that the people’s heart’s cry at this point is the creation of a mythical Oduduwa homeland. If anything, the political alliance between the leading lights of the zone and key northern leaders like Muhammadu Buhari, remains strong and appears the most viable option for those who have ambitions at the national level in the near future.

Even the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) which has been co-opted into Amotekun – for all its bluster – is anything but separatist. Whatever its roots, the maneuverings of its leadership have reduced it to little more than an organisation that provides enforcers for hire.

During the 2015 election campaigns, this same OPC – along with the supposedly separatist Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) – was in the vanguard of the ‘President Goodluck Jonathan must win’ movement.

With sweet promises of pipeline protection contracts ringing in their ears, OPC, MASSOB and similar groups in the Niger Delta, took to the streets to stage sometimes violent protests threatening mayhem if the electoral outcome was anything but a victory for the then incumbent.

Jonathan was head of a government sworn to preserving the unity of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Here you had supposedly ‘separatist’ organisations whose raison d’etre should be the opposite openly campaigning against what they stood for! And someone would have us believe that OPC is working for the creation of Oduduwa Republic. Perhaps in their dreams!

These groups are largely opportunistic and not separatist. They are rebels with causes that provide them meals. They are useful for those who whip up political mischief, but shouldn’t worry anyone truly concerned about the corporate existence of this country.

IPOB’s embrace of the project is predictable and understandable. It gives it comfort to imagine that another region is squaring up to its hated foe – the Federal Government. It doesn’t matter whether its fantasy is different from reality in this case – anything would do for propaganda sake.

This controversy is needless drama. Amotekun has become ammunition for mischief-makers and Malami’s meddling has weaponised it. In the Southwest, what would have been just another security operation has become a regional cause celebre which must be defended at all cost. It is now welded to ethnic pride. 

If you oppose it, you will pay a price down the line because you will be profiled as a sell-out. If you support it, you could be caricatured in certain parts of the country as an ethnic jingoistic.  

It didn’t have to come to this for something that was simply about keeping a people whose government had failed to do so, safe.

“This controversy is needless drama. Amotekun has become ammunition for mischief-makers and Malami’s meddling has weaponised it.”

I suspect that it would take more than Malami’s decree to kill this idea whose time has come. Before he intervened, governors from the North and East had spoken of making similar arrangements to tackle insecurity in their regions.

Truth be told, the Nigeria Police and other security agencies need urgent help to deal with today’s challenges. They are not fit for purpose in today’s world of killer herdsmen, kidnappers, ritual killers and other hitherto unknown criminal activity.

To oppose something that would help because of a wrongheaded notion of its legality is totally unacceptable. The ones who escalated this matter must deescalate it without further ado. The key players all belong to APC and should be able to work out a reasonable compromise. 

If they don’t, they would be sending out unhelpful signals of distrust and disunity in the ruling party.