The Nation Newspaper

Category: Opinion

  • China, Africa and Washington’s weird worry

    Last month, precisely on December 13, 2018, U.S National Security Adviser, Mr. John Bolton at a Washington D.C based think tank, Heritage Foundation unveiled what he called President Trump’s administration new Africa strategy which according to him has been approved by the president and would go into immediate execution. Bolton told his listeners that “this strategy is the result of an intensive inter-agency process and reflects the core tenets of President Trump’s foreign policy doctrine…and remains true to his central campaign promise to put the interests of the American people first, both at home and abroad”.

    But awkwardly, in discussing the America’s Africa strategy themed “Prosper Africa,” Bolton was more concerned about China in Africa which mentioned 17 times in a six page document, claiming that “China uses bribes, opaque agreements and the strategic use of debts to hold states in Africa captive to Beijing’s wishes and demands.” Mr. Bolton who once railed at the United Nations for being allegedly filled with slot and incompetence and suggested that it would not matter at all, if 10 of the 38 floors of the UN building were blown away, was at his traditional best in spewing hard rhetoric in describing China’s engagement with Africa as “predatory action”.

    In formulating their hostile rhetoric against China-Africa Cooperation, Bolton and the administration he serves, did not seem to have consulted any African government or any of its representative institutions or even Africa’s public opinion on the issue of their relations with China, with a consequence that the U.S Africa’s strategy is a barely concealed Washington grand strategy to contain China, with Africa featuring only as a mere battle ground. To drive home the un-substantiated fallacy about China-Africa Cooperation,. Bolton claimed that “the nation of Zambia is currently in debt to China to the tune of $6-10 billion” and that “China is now poised to take over Zambia’s national power and utility company in order to collect on Zambia’s financial obligations.”

    Zambia’s Presidency quickly retorted that this assertion is a lie from the pit of hell. It clarified that the country’s total debt stock was about $10.3 billion owned to a variety of international creditors with China’s share only about $3 billion and dismissed any suggestion that China plans to take over its utility company or any other of her national facilities. This is the kind of embarrassment Washington gets for manufacturing lies and slander to inveigh at one of Africa’s most productive international partnership and engagements.

    Africa’s leadership at several collective fora and individually has firmly signaled that the continent’s space is too wide to contain all kinds of international partners and therefore, extrapolating the discredited zero-sum game in what Bolton called “great power competition” to Africa is outdated and would not find a serious, recipient in a contemporary Africa, open to business with the rest of the world. China has never considered Africa to be her exclusive preserve despite a long trajectory, stretching from solidarity generated from struggles against colonial domination and for national independence to avid cooperation to build their respective national economies to improve quality of lives of their respective peoples. In fact, Beijing has repeatedly called for more international attention to Africa and urged for vigorous global partnerships to help Africa overcome some of its existential challenges, with herself leading the way despite such distractions as Washington’s weird worries.  According to Bolton, “the predatory practices pursued by China…stunt economic growth in Africa, threaten the financial independence of African nations, inhibit opportunities for U.S investment, interfere with U.S military operations and pose significant threat to U.S national security interests”. It is very likely that any time Bolton or any of the U.S administration official travels to anywhere in Africa, he or she would be landing at China’s assisted airport terminals, drive on Beijing assisted highways and should he chose to travel by contemporary modernized railway, would be enjoying the cruise on China-built standard gauge railway lines that is giving practical effect and filling the gap of connectivity and integration, the historical deficit of pan-Africanism and continental unity.

    If Bolton begrudges the significant strides in China-Africa cooperation as “predatory practices that ‘stunt’ growth in Africa, then the U.S new strategy on Africa has certainly not benefited from the inputs of U.S resident diplomats in Africa who are witness to the daily giant strides of China-Africa cooperation in the course of the changing face of the continent.

    Washington’s concerns that China in Africa would “inhibit opportunities for U.S investment, interfere with U.S military operations and pose significant threat to U.S national security interests are plainly weird and grossly out of place, except if Washington means that her new strategy in Africa is to undermine Africa and her international partnership.

    In her profound and engaging pioneering work on China-Africa, the U.S professor, Deborah Brautigam wrote in “The dragon’s gift: the real story of China in Africa” that “China is now a powerful force in Africa and the Chinese are not going away. Their embrace of the continent is strategic, planned, long term and still unfolding… Ultimately, it is up to Africa governments to shape this encounter in ways that will benefit their people. Many will not grasp this opportunity but some will. The West can help by gaining a more realistic picture of China’s engagement, avoiding sensationalism and paranoia, admitting our shortcomings, and perhaps exploring the notion that China’s model of consistent non-intervention may be preferable to one that regularly intervenes in other countries domestic affairs or uses of military force  to foster political change.”

    Given that Prof. Brautigam first wrote these instructive lines in 2009, the current U.S Africa strategy which Bolton discussed last month with so much gusto appeared totally outdated and even out of context to the current conditions and stage of China-Africa cooperation.

    Notwithstanding, the current Washington’s weird worries and concerns about China-Africa relation, the United States certainly have legitimate interest in Africa and should cultivate it just like others to contribute to her national aggregates. As traditional friend to Africa with considerable soft power influences on the continent, United States can explore the opportunities that Africa presents to the world with its growing market, resource endowments and the resilience of her civil communities.

    But to maximally benefit from the opportunities of contemporary Africa in contributing to making America great again,” slandering Africa’s foremost contemporary partnership with China or seeking the outdated cold-war strategy to contain Beijing is a pathetic non-starter.

    In China-Africa cooperation and partnership, Washington should eschew undue intervention, show modesty and respect by at least allowing those directly involved to lead commentaries on the issues of the relationship.

    At the recent summit of China and Africa in Beijing last September, the two sides agreed to themselves to build a community of shared future and common destiny, declaring to jointly leverage the Belt and Road international cooperation to fill the gaps of their development needs and urged the rest of world, including the United States to key in, to the emerging paradigm of international cooperation and consensus building.

     

    • Onunaiju, director, Centre for China Studies (CCS), Abuja. 

  • Why they hate Buhari

    I took a stroll to PDP dominated platforms. My determination was to understudy the philosophy behind the increasing anger and frustration that have snowballed into utter desperation to unseat President Muhammadu Buhari. The more my inquiry, the more I saw the innocence and sincerity of Buhari. I am a victim of intimidation and attempted murder by a powerful cabal in a PDP state. Innocent though I am, it cost me my job and I have lost everything because I support and love Buhari.

    Two geo-political zones were the initial focus of my research. People from these PDP geo-political zones are visible in social media especially in twitter. They use religion and the media for sponsored propaganda against Buhari as a strategy to dislodge him from power come 2019.  Buhari does not pay the media, he has stopped the culture of Aso Rock envelopes and private jets. Desperadoes especially in PDP must hunt him down by negative propaganda aimed at presenting him as the sole cause of all the problems that bedevil Nigeria since independence.

    The class of those that  hate Buhari includes business men especially those that have links with the marine industry.

    In truth, these people were really rich in the days of PDP. They had so much money to play around. They could fund their children in foreign schools, take their girlfriends to holidays in foreign countries, pay for hotel rooms for their girlfriends for as long as whole year, they could build mansions in a matter of months, they could club every night, they had enough to buy luxurious  cars and acquire choice properties abroad. They could just sit at the comfort of their prodigious lifestyle and continually get alerts that can sustain any form of extravagances they choose for the day.

    These are the people whose businesses are folding today. They were those that the community leaders recognized and gathered to give chieftaincy titles as successful business men and women. These men acquired ships and exploited the sea to make huge money mostly through illegal means.

    Some of them were import and export clearing agents that were working hand in hand with the Customs. Those whose relations were custom officers or clearing agents during the PDP days know exactly what I am saying. Your guess here could be as good as mine as their cookies crumbled with the new policies of Mr Integrity.

    The line of business of most haters of Buhari ranges from oil bunkering, import and export, money laundering, oil marketing, arms dealing, sea pirating, clearing and forwarding and customized brokers offering myriad of cargo transportation and value-added logistics services ranging from customs clearance to assistance with regulatory compliance issues.

    Haters of Buhari are also amongst ex service chiefs, past military heads of state and the elites that made stupendous money from ownership of oil blocks. Politics was built around these people; they made politics more desperate with the  conscription of armed criminals that increasingly became agents of thuggery, ballot box snatchers, political assassins, etc.

    Some of these men that were armed by politicians became too powerful and stronger than their initial bosses. They also form arch enemies of Buhari. You can understand why the leader of IPOB and one Niger Delta Militant were the first to declare that Buhari is a clone of Jibrin Al Sudan. Besides negative propaganda, there are some gang members whose mission is to discredit Buhari through insecurity.

    The boys that were armed by politicians became independent from their political masters and  sought alternative source of funds. They formed themselves into gangs of armed robbers, kidnappers, militants, human trafficking, assassins, oil bunkers, etc.

    After making much monies, these men of the underworld  displayed their wealth by acquiring properties in choice places and spending on women. No wonder prostitution was a huge source of livelihood in the days of PDP.

    With the emergence of Buhari and the appointment of Hadiza Bala Usman as managing director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and Col. Hameed Ibrahim Ali (Rtd) as Comptroller-General of Customs, the stranglehold of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate on Nigeria’s economy was broken. While the managing director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) terminated Nigerian contract with INTEL – the company where he holds interest, the Comptroller-General of Customs tightened the borders and increased checks and balance on imports in collaboration with IRS unit.

    At this point, Atiku could no longer stomach being in APC, but had to jump out. OBJ’s book “My Watch” would haunt Atiku for the rest of his life. OBJ  got an opportunity to deal a hard blow on Atiku in retaliation for denying him the opportunity for a successful third term bid as president. The ire in OBJ and the force to retaliate made him swear that God will not forgive him if he ever supports Atiku for any cause.

    However, just like the frustration of Atiku’s businesses made Atiku to fall out with Buhari, Buhari’s decision not to renew oil licenses became a threat to OBJ. Buhari then became the enemy to both of them. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Buhari is the enemy of Atiku, therefore Atiku must become a new found friend of OBJ so that they can fight and see an end to their common enemy in person of Baba Buhari.

     

    • Odok, PhD, is Director Media and Strategic Communication, Coalition for Buhari/Osinbajo Movement.

  • 2019: Choice before Nigerians

    As the 2019 general elections approach, the social political space has begun to play host to all mannersof political theatricals. Those whoplayed havoc with the nation’s development potentials and left the countrywretched are congregating to stage a return. The thought of these same people strutting the political space and mobilizing to come back leaves me impatient. They chatter ceaselessly about the current government’s inability to fix the country’s many problemsit inherited in less than four years, but remain silent orfeign ignorance oftheiralmost16 years ofplunderand wasteful reign.

    Hadthe People’s Democratic Party (PDP) established the country on a solid ground in the many year of its rule, it would be impossible for the impact of its achievements to vanish within two years of the coming of a different administration. It is naïve and abdication of rationality to expect a relatively new government to undo the ravages of many years of bad leadership in just four years in a complex, overpopulated, unindustrialized and technologically poor society with a cantankerous makeup. Not even the most adroit administrator can achieve that at a micro level, for example, auniversity. In other words, even the most gifted vice chancellor cannot resuscitate a university that is in rot in just four years, much less a country as complex as Nigeria that lapsed into the agony of development quagmire many years ago as a result of misrule.

    The nation was in the grip of the PDP and their associates for nearly two decades;they luxuriated in their assets and privileges, and boasted of how many years they would rule.None thought of how to replicate half, or even a quarter, ofthe story of Singapore in our clime. None! It is not in their character.No one should toy with the destiny of this country by contemplating handing it back to a party that is peerlessin the waste of the nation’s resources in the country’s recent history.

    There are no compelling reasons to become too weary of the present administration. Many people continue to harp on the unequal exchange rates between naira and the US dollar as a major sign of failure of the current government as if that is where the problem lies. In the first instance, enormous pressure has been on the naira for a long time, andthe pressure will remain still for a long time to the extent that the economy remains import-based and subject to the vagaries ofthe prices of global commodities, especially, oil.Thesame pressure was responsible for the devaluation ofthe naira against some world currencies, notably the US dollar, in 2008. However, the problem of Nigeria is not unequal exchange rates, but lack of productive and industrial capacity. South Korea isan industrialized nation with a robust economy and productive base. The country’sGNI Per Capita Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is $38,260,while Nigeria’s is $5,680. Life expectancies in South Korea for male and female are respectively 79 and 85 years, and Nigeria’s are 53 and 54 years. The country’s infant mortality is 2.8 per 1,000 live births, Nigeria is 67. South Korea is 82% urban, while Nigeria is 50%. Yet, one South Korean Won (© 1) equals 0.32 Nigerian currency – about32kobo. One US dollar to the naira is about ¦ 364, while $1 equals 1,129.70 South Korean Won (© ); far below the naira!Still, South Korea dwarfs Nigeria in all indices of development. The problem is not exchange rate, but the country’s inability to produce and manufacture what it needs, evensomething as simple as toothpick.

    Nigeria’s lack of industrial capacity is not natural, but the result ofmany years of poor governance and lack of visionary leadership. Successive governments had been merciless in toying with the country’s future. While politicians balloon in personal wealth, the nation was starved of investment for productive development. It beggarsbelief that one particular political party was in power uninterrupted for 16 years, and we cannot point to something that they were able to fix and stabilize for the country. There was no foundation to stir the country on the path of progress. The roads are in very bad shape, poor electricity supply, no functional refinery, and many communities lack potable water,among others. Even worse than theseanomaliesarising out of leadership failure is the contamination of societal values.Theiravarice,the exuberance of materialism, lavish lifestyleand lack of modesty polluted and ruined the society’s moral and cultural landscape, and gave rise to all kinds of rebellions against long-standing societal values of hard work, respect for human life, self-disciplineand patience. Today, we dwell in a society where political thugs have morphed into armed robbers, terrorists, ritual killers and kidnappers lay siege at every turn.It is unfortunate that ours is a country where the masses venerate their oppressors instead of asking them question and demanding accountability. What sent former Brazilian President, Lula da Silva, to prison recently is a child’s play when compared with what former Nigerian leaders did and get away with in strut.

    It will amount to willful blindness to accept the current assemblage of PDP members as the solution to Nigeria’s development crisis. The masses should not make that mistake. Many of them are propelled by inordinate desire for power and fame. The APC government has not faired very satisfactorily; and reports on some statesare quitedisturbing.But with all its imperfections, at least, it is more responsible than the PDP in attitude towards public treasury at the federal level.All governments are corrupt, but some are more corrupt and brazen than others. From recent experience, the PDP lacks what it takes to pull the country out from stagnation. If it were not so, we will not be here.

    It is a manifestof limited memory and impatience on the part of the masses to consider going back to PDP. Social and economic prosperity do not come overnight. They are products of painstaking planning, dedication and probity. World over, there are unprecedented crises, the kinds that have triggered migrants caravans from countries with smaller population sizes in South America; and many countries are working hard to put themselves back on track. Anything less than what Nigeria has now in terms of attitude towards public fund will spell doom for the seventh most populous country in the world.What is at stake is the nerve of the Nigerian nation.The return of PDP will mean a return to ruthless looting; a return to uncompleted projects for which money had been paid; and a return tonational decay.Sixteen years is enough to know what people can do. Einstein was once asked what madness is. His answer: “By repeating the same experiences and experiments with the same tools and expecting different results”.

    Look at the charactersthat are gathering themselves;what is the difference from what the country has seen all these years? They will resume the open plundering of the treasury and the nation will witness an increase in the number of billionaire politicians and their associates, to the detriment of the welfare of the masses. No doubt, Nigerians deserve something better, but they should not contemplate reinstalling the PDP for now. It has not changed. It is aparty with a preponderance of political bandits. As it were, many of those parading themselves on the PDP’s platform again do not actually belong anywhere. They move in drove from party to partyand desert as soon as they perceive a resistance to their calculations and attemptsatgrabbingthe system’s apparatus for the allocation of wealth and privileges. They cannot stand on their own because nobody will follow them for lack of ennobling character. So, from time to time, they leverage on a platform’s need for support, mount their loud speakers and trump up the country’s most visible problems – unemployment and insecurity –for which they were responsible.

    All said, while we hope for a better alternative, with all its flaws, this government seems tobe a lesser devil than the PDP in attitude towards public treasuryand the commitment of national resources to public good and infrastructural development.The masses are now faced with a choice between proven “fantastically corrupt” andone with unclear path with the promise of change. The nation is at a crossroad.

     

    • Eborka, PhD, is of Department of Sociology, University of Lagos.

  • Insecurity, insurgency and military solution

    North, South, East or West, the story is the same; insecurity hangs in the air like the sword of Damocles.   The military has virtually taken over police duty and over stretched in its internal security operations across the country; yet, the situation is has not shown any marked improvement.  Our thesis is that it is a familiar lesson of history that we cannot fight insecurity and insurgency through offensive military action alone.  This is because the crises of insecurity and insurgency sometimes are organized crimes with political patronage.

    To deal with insecurity there has to be a coherent and coordinated institutional approach by government with the political will.  There must not only be good laws but they should be capable of enforcement.  Besides adequate policing, the police should have accurate data and criminal records of men of the underworld and kingpins of criminal gangs.   We now appear to be in a perpetual state of insecurity which is no longer defined by status; whether you live in the usually secured highbrow area or in the slum and ghettoes, nobody is safe anymore.

    Just a few days back, the immediate past Chief of Defence Staff, a four-star General was killed along Jos Keffi road.  It became news items because he was a prominent person in the society whereas this is the lot of the ordinary Nigerian on daily basis which are hardly reported in the media.

    Abuja – Kaduna road has been taken over by kidnappers and armed robbers and there appears not to be any serious effort by the government to restore confidence of travellers along that route even though you encounter some stationary patrol vehicles of security agencies along the way. The government appears fixated that the criminality in the country is caused by poverty.  If that is truly the case, then worse days awaits us because we will have more poverty as the unemployment market swells with army of new graduates every year from our institutions of learning.

    The worrisome aspect of insecurity in the country today is that every geo-political zone is under relentless siege from hooligans and gangsters.  In the South-south, militancy and oil bunkering has remained with us in spite of the security outfit in that zones since early 2000.  In the Southeast, we are confronted with the menace of armed robbers and cultists who operate with audacious ferocity while the Nigerian Army has been embroiled in a tango of python dance with them. In the Southwest, armed robbers, kidnappers and ritualists hold sway. Again the security forces are deployed on the streets and road blocks yet the activities of these hooligans and bandits have not relented.

    In the middle-belt area, herdsmen activities have made life a living hell to the people that they can no longer engage in their farming activities.  Whole villages have been sacked and destroyed and government prefers to engage in blame games and victim blaming.  In the Northeast, the Boko Haram that started as a local insurgency has transformed into a full-blown terrorists organization with global franchise.  For the first time after the Nigerian Civil war that lasted for about 30 months, the Nigerian Armed Forces are taking an acid test in its combat efficiency.  We may find it difficult to accept but it is true and we have to come to the realization that our armed forces have become rusty with poor equipment to engage a determined enemy like the Boko Haram insurgents.

    The cost of the fight against insecurity and insurgency may never be known. There may never be any official data or statistics from government; only God knows the casualty figures in troops, civilians and material. We are at the mercy of armed herdsmen, insurgents, kidnappers, armed robbers and cultists and unable to police our porous borders.

    The crises of insecurity are sustained by the failure of good governance and inability to make and enforce good laws.  While we cannot legislate crime and criminality out of existence, we can at least manage it through good laws, adequate policing and enforcement.  There is no fine relationship between poverty and insecurity but there are abundant evidence between insecurity and poor governance anywhere in the world.

    The most troubling aspect of the fight against insecurity and insurgency is the government continuous campaign that it can only be solved if the international community comes on board and perhaps take over the fight.  We want the international community to provide intelligence for us in our own soil, we want them to give us equipment and train our troops, we want aids to feed the displaced people and rebuild damaged infrastructure but we are up in arms when they tell us how our troops should not conduct the war against insurgency.

    We may not write off the Nigeria Police Force completely in its ability to fight crime although a major concern is that some elements in the force are complicit in organized crimes in the country.  This is in addition to the corruption in its rank and file which makes it difficult for citizens to have confidence in the force.  The military can interface with the police where necessary but does not have to usurp police duties.  Rather, the police should be better equipped, motivated and with a new code of discipline instead of the bunch of personnel that you have today who are not very different from the criminals they are trained to combat.

    It may be perceived as political suicide to suggest that the government should declare state of emergency in security.  The government people are wont to tell us in their cavalier manner that the police and the security forces are up to the task but the reality on the ground suggest something different.

    We are blaming our failure to provide security to our people on Europe and America for not selling weapons to us.  If we depend on them for everything, we should also be ready to accept it when they dictate to our government and the military on the dos and don’ts in conducting the military operations against the insurgents.  Of course they would spy and monitor our government and security agencies through the numerous organizations in the name of support and technical aids.

    This is where I sympathize with the Nigerian Army when it declared UNICEF persona non grata and suspended it from its theatre of operation in the Northeast hoping that it had the support of the federal government.  The Nigerian Army was to reverse itself less than 24 hours after the United Nations and the American government we were told started breathing on the necks of the army and the federal government. This is the dilemma of a neo-colonial state with leadership inertia incapable of developing its own industrial complex for growth.  Perhaps if the military understands the dialectics of post colonial relations to developing countries, it would not have been too swift to expel or suspend UNICEF staff. Aids to Third World countries from the west are not altruistic but tied to their overriding economic and security needs.  Osama Bin Ladin was fished out from Pakistan through CIA agents operating under the cover of humanitarian doctors immunizing children from preventable diseases.

    So, these organizations must spy on you because you depend on their home government who do not want the crises to end because they have to sell their weapons, they have to bring technical experts to train your troops and exploit your natural resources.  They are to identify legitimate targets and give the red line beyond which you must not cross.  This way, the wars are unwinnable.

    This brings me to the hues and cries about Amnesty International report on the behaviour of our troops in the fight against insecurity and insurgency across the country. The government and the army have dismissed the report as not verifiable and correct and capable of demoralizing the fighting forces.   Whatever their misgiving against the report, we cannot afford to discard the report with dismissive cant and platitude that it is not verifiable.

    Rather than continue to live in denial, I think it could just be the right material to use to educate our gallant troops without vilifying them. However, obvious cases of infraction should be punished. To call our souls ours in the in the fight against insurgency and insecurity we have to develop our own military industrial complex. We can start by manufacturing those basic things like ammunition, personal rifles and graduate into manufacturing of other war machines like India, Pakistan and South Africa have done.

    Our taste for western goods extends to even news items from the media. News items are only confirmed to be correct when beamed from foreign media.  Even our leaders have taken to speaking to us from abroad on important national issues.  To avoid being in this awkward position in the fight against insecurity and insurgency, government should be willing to come out with fact sheet of its activities to the local media rather allow wild speculation by social media and international agencies.

     

    • KebonkwuEsq writes from Abuja.

  • Do they know there is Christmas?

    As millions of Christians celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ, the globally acclaimed spiritual saviour of mankind, there are many more who do not have the economic resources to dine and wine, with members of their families and friends.  For instance, according to the World Poverty Clock, Nigeria overtook India by the middle of 2018 as the country with the most extreme poor people in the world. Precisely, the 86.9 million Nigerians now living in extreme poverty represents nearly 50% of its estimated 180 million population. This is worrisome.

    So is the recent revelation by the federal government that an estimated 40 million Nigerians are believed to be suffering from mental disorders. Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Health, AbdulazizMashiAbdullahi, stated this at the mental health action committee and stakeholders workshop held in Abuja.

    Linked to the issue of mental disorder is the surge in thoughts of suicide and the act itself in recent years. Mental health physicians have attributed this to mass hopelessness, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance use disorder, stigmatization and chronic illnesses often leading to anxiety and depression.

    While this rather saddening situation is understandable in some other countries ravaged by natural and environmental disasters of drought, seasonal floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, typhoons and tsunamis, or the self-inflicted wasteful wanton wars, it is far from this in our dear nation, Nigeria.

    Here, indeed, the victims such as the homeless, the elderly poor, the beggars, orphans and widows agonize over preventable poverty in the midst of plenty! Not left out of course, are the hapless civil servants owed for months by their cruel and conscienceless state governors that collect different funds from the all-conquering federal centre but simply refuse to pay them. There lies the irony and the pain!

    In a report published by Oxfam in 2016, it stated that the combined wealth of Nigeria’s five richest men – then put at about $29.9 billion could effectively end extreme poverty in the country. Yes, you read me right. In fact, Celestine OkwudiliOdo, Good Governance Programme Coordinator for Oxfam in Nigeria, said: “Extreme inequality is exacerbating poverty, undermining the economy, and fermenting social unrest. Nigerian leaders must be more determined in tackling this terrible problem.” This has always informed one’s clarion call on the powers that be that they should channel their efforts to combating poverty with the same zeal they do with their lope-sided war against corruption.

    Looked at from the perspective of  the Human Development Index (HDI), which is a summary measure for assessing the three key areas of long-term healthy life, access to knowledge and decent standard of living, it paints a parlous picture of pure deprivation of the marginalized masses.

    According to the World Bank, Brookings Institution and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2018 Report Nigeria does not rank amongst the Top 10 Fastest Growing Economies in Africa! While countries such as Ghana, Ethiopia and Cote d’ Ivoire post growth rates of 8.3%, 8.2% and 7.2% in that order, Nigeria’s growth rate stands at a miserable1.9 %. Sadly, Nigeria is the only oil-producing country languishing in that shameful socio-economic stratum.

    This is curious because Nigeria was ranked number one in Africa in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. In fact, as at 2014 Nigeria was rated as the country with the 3rd fastest growing economy in the world but it currently languishes at the 88th position!

    Under this administration, inflation rate galloped from 13.7% to 15.6%, between May and July, 2016. Compared to that of South Africa of 6.3 %, Republic of Niger of 2.3 %, Zimbabwe of -1% and Mali of -0.4% there is nothing to cheer about.  All these take place because the dynamics of consumables and essential needs such as food, kerosene, transportation, housing and utilities are closely tied to fuel hike and inflation. The sudden hike in fuel price from about N97 to N145 per litre on May 11, 2016, from N87 to N145 (66.67%) has had deleterious effects on the quality of life of the average Nigerian.

    One had expected, as admonished that President Muhammadu Buhari was going to  assemble a team of top technocrats and seasoned economists, who know their onions; irrespective of their political or religious persuasions and be ready to listen to them, back in 2015. But that was never done. As usual, the tightening of monetary policies led to devaluation of the naira. Since we do not produce or export much of home-grown products, importers would spend more naira to the dollar. With the rampaging insurgency in the Northeast, which has led to food shortages in addition to hike in the price of farm products, a recycling of economic policies will not get us out of the wood.

    How do we reduce the number of the extremely poor people in Nigeria? Firstly, our policy makers should think out of the box. We need the enabling environment such as stable power supply, good access roads and access to soft loans with single digit interest rates to kick-start industrialization. We need futuristic approach to quality education delivery for Nigeria to key into the global knowledge economy. Indeed, there should be technologically-driven industrial hubs to coordinate and facilitate Small and Medium Scale Enterprises across the six geo-political zones.

    We should stop transferring our economic fortunes to foreign hands. We need to revisit the policy of liberalization and the social benefits of privatization. There should be fiscal federalism and devolution of the enormous political and economic powers from the centre to the federating units as it was during the First Republic. This would be better still under a return to the less costly parliamentary system of government, as being championed by some patriotic lawmakers.

    Of similar significance is the need to critically address the obscenely high cost of accessing political power vis-à-vis the huge emoluments of political office holders. These twin evils fuel corruption and undermine good governance that could benefit the poor. Our political leaders should come to terms with the harsh economic realities and tread the path of frugality, to become true servant- leaders as late President Umaru Yar’Adua advocated.

    We need to deploy the huge sums of money recovered through the anti-graft war to improve the quality of life of the average citizen, especially children, the elderly, orphans, the homeless and  widows  who are the greatest victims so that they  know or have the resources to celebrate Christmas.

  • Akpabio and test of leadership

    In the last 16 years that he has held different political posts – commissioner, governor in Akwa Ibom and currently, senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 56-year old Godswill Obot Akpabio, has carved a niche for himself. The governor’s office in his native Akwa Ibom, which he manned between May 29, 2007 and May 29, 2015, meteorically moved him from relative obscurity to pre-eminence.

    Incontrovertibly, Akpabio has transformed the landscape of Akwa Ibom more than any other governor since the creation of the state in 1987. If, at all, it is possible for the people of Akwa Ibom to forget him, his works on physical infrastructures, such as road constructions and airport project he inherited from his predecessor at drawing board level, and social amenities, particularly, the free education he initiated, have what it takes to shame anyone with amnesia.

    Even with the infrastructural renaissance, this writer would not score him up to average on the overall scale of good governance, as his performance was close to being abysmal in some other salient indices of good governance. However, in a society like ours, where what are given elsewhere are considered messianic gestures, even when a leader with acclaimed messianic touch operates below par, people still pull off their clothes, spray on road for “the messiah” to walk while they sing hosanna to his name.

    In human estimation and as shown by preponderance opinion expressed by many, Akpabio may be considered a successful politician. Granted that he is successful in politics, which, as it is common in the Nigerian society, translates from rising political profile to uncommon opulence, it is doubtful whether Akpabio could be described as a good manager of success of any kind. Managing failure is easier than sustaining success. When success gets into one’s head it puts future prospects in peril.

    At the moment, contrary to so many people’s assumption, Akpabio is plying a perilous political path. He is at the edge of precipice and, if care is not taken, he could tumble irredeemably to political irrelevance. Leaving PDP, a party that catapulted him from nowhere to somewhere, for APC, a party he was vehemence in pouring venoms on, still remains a shock to millions, who judge him on face value and not the depth of his characters.

    If his claims that he is joining APC so he could avail himself with chances of playing national politics is worth working on, then Akpabio has succeeded in advertising himself as Nigeria’s celebrated chameleonic politician. Aside, was Obafemi Awolowo in any political party that controlled the centre before being eternally engrained in the hearts of his admirers and adversaries as an outstanding nationalists and statesman?

    If the rumour making rounds that he joined APC so as to fence off anti-graft agencies from arresting and subsequently prosecuting him over allegation of graft while serving as governor deserves consideration, then Akpabio has launched himself as coward of grandstanding. In deciding matters in 2019 election, Akwa Ibom people may be prompted to take one of Mahatma Gandhi’s inimitable admonitions to heart: “A coward is incapable of exhibiting love; it is the prerogative of the brave.”

    Regarding his dumping of PDP, Akpabio has also been advancing that he made a political mistake in the build up to 2015 electioneering. Except political arithmetic is like mathematical arithmetic, where minus plus minus is equal to plus, then his acclaimed blunder in 2015 plus another blunder in the build up to 2019 elections would result in anything but positive.

    Since his defection to APC, Akpabio has been on overkill in order to live up to presumptuous billings that he is the commander-in-chief of the politics of the South-south and in desperation of earning the trust of those parleying with him with mistrust. He was recently reported to have said that his heart was with then candidate Muhammadu Buhari of APC in 2015 presidential election”. Whereas, then Governor Akpabio had closed Ibom International Airport, forcing Buhari to be on road for about four hours from Margaret Ekpo International Airport in Calabar to Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital. In event of Buhari losing 2019 Presidential Election, Akpabio may typically come up again that his “heart” was for Atiku Abubakar, the Presidential Candidate of the PDP.

    Once a person is known to be speaking from both sides of his mouth those listening to him, if any, do not only put their ears on ground but put the rest of their sense organs to full task and the resultant effect is that even when what proceeds from his mouth is coated with goodies no one, except the gullible, takes to his words to the bank. That is a goodwill thrown to the dogs!

    As things stand today in Akwa Ibom North West (IkotEkpene) Senatorial District, in event that the election would have close 45 per cent credibility or a free and fair rigging, where contending parties would slug out for votes without coercive interference of institutional powers, Akpabio stands a brighter chance of losing his second term senatorial election.

    Failure, indeed, would serve Akpabio well. He would get to know and appreciate the realities of life. It would offer him ample opportunity for reconnaissance in order to pick his pieces. He would come to his senses that his action of leaving PDP lonely to APC was a shot on his foot.

    If he wins in an atmosphere of crisis, then the likely quagmire that may follow could slide down the ladder of his history. Surely, no matter what, Akpabio has a strategic place in his history. But the process of one making history is a continuum. And one could make history either as a hero or villain.

     

    • Ekanem, a journalist sent this piece from Lagos through nsikak4media@gmail.com

  • Buhari’s re-election: A case of a kingdom divided against itself?

    Last month a multinational banking and financial services company, the HSBC, made public its report on the future of Nigerian economy if President Muhammadu Buhari wins the 2019 presidential election. The report, compiled by its Global Research Unit, and titled, ‘Nigeria, Papering over the Cracks,’ said Nigeria’s current economic struggles would continue if Buhari wins a second term in office.

    According to the financial giant, “a second term for Mr. Buhari raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil.” It further announced that the president’s “approval ratings sit near all-time low,” courtesy of the sustained economic hardship that has accompanied his presidency, including rapidly rising joblessness, and poverty.”

    Before the Presidency could find their voice on this assessment, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist, a British magazine came out directly to predict that President Buhari would lose his re-election bid to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party in 2019.

    The financial institution cited as reasons for its prediction to include Buhari dwindling support in his party, the APC which has resulted in the defection of state governors and federal lawmakers to the main opposition party, the PDP; the difficult business environment that will restrict the development of non-oil exports among others.

    On Saturday, September 15th, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and publicity, Garba Shehu, in his usual manner, attacked the HSBC over its position, saying that the bank has no moral right to make such assessment, having “soiled its hand with ‘millions of US dollars yet-to-be-recovered Abacha loot.’”

    In same manner, the ruling party described the assessment of these world giants as “doomsday prophesies” and urged “Nigerians to regard these ‘expert analyses and prophecies’ for what they are and dismiss them accordingly.”

    It remains unclear if any of the President’s close allies has sat back to analyse these predictions dispassionately with a view to addressing some of the issues raised by these august institutions, instead, they are attacking the messengers as if these assessments just came from the blues – without proper research and analysis – or that votes are won through abusive words.

    Let us look at the issues raised by these international institutions. It is no news that Buhari inherited an economy that was growing at the rate of seven percent annually but moved it into recession in less than two years. Experts attribute this downward slide to poor economic policies of the present administration resulting in dwindled foreign direct investments, capital flight, inflation, high interest rates, poor foreign exchange regime etc. Although our economy has exited recession but the growth rate is still below two percent per annum. Poor economy has resulted in the loss of over nine million jobs since 2015, going by the statistics released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics.

    These nine million people who lost their jobs since 2015 are nine million votes that are most likely going to count against Buhari’s re-election in 2019. If I were Buhari or any of his acolytes, my pre-occupation now would be how to woo these population to our side before the election. I would not be doing anything that would further enlarge this pool. But these Buhari’s men would rather lie to the President and be doing those things that would create more enemies than friends for the President.

    With decrease in revenue and increased cost of governance, the government cannot create a significant number of jobs but instead of encouraging the private sector to create more jobs by offering incentives that will increase their profitability, the Nigerian government seems to be trampling on the few companies that are seen to be successful through policy summersaults, high handedness of regulatory agencies, multiple taxation, extortion etc.

    Let us look at the travails of MTN Nigeria, the erstwhile poster boy of FDI in Nigeria in the hands of the Buhari administration. It was fined the sum of $5.2 billion (about 1.04 trillion) for failure to deactivate about 5.1 million unregistered lines from its network. This was later reduced under controversial circumstances to N330 billion. When the company seems to have survived this issue, the CBN came calling, accusing the telecom company of illegal fund repatriation and ordering it to refund the sum of $8.1 billion.

    The apex bank also fined four banks a total of N5.8 billion for “irresponsible market behaviour” in relation to the alleged illegal fund repatriation. These banks include the Standard Chartered Bank, the Citibank, Stanbic IBTC and Diamond Bank. The telecom company and the affected banks have denied any wrong doing and the matter is currently in court.

    As if that was not enough, the Attorney General of the Federation, assuming the role of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), has also ordered the same MTN to pay approximately $2 billion for alleged unpaid taxes on foreign payments and imports.  The new twist to the issue that bewilders stakeholders of the sector is that the AGF has even ordered MTN Nigeria not to pay the $8.1 billion fine imposed by CBN to the apex bank but to pay it to his office

    While addressing journalists on this matter at the most recent Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) meeting, the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele was quoted to have said “We will resolve this matter; I’m very optimistic we’ll resolve the matter and I believe that everybody will be happy: MTN will be happy, the banks will be happy and CBN and government will be happy.”

    On Thursday, 4th October, Bloomberg published a story based on documents filed by the CBN with the Federal High Court. The story alleged that the perceived softened stance by the CBN based on comments from the Governor was false and on the contrary, the apex bank was demanding 15 per cent annualised interest on the sum until the courts make a judgment, and 10 per cent from then until the whole amount is paid.

    So many conflicting signals.

    On Friday September 14th, operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission raided the head offices of the Standard Chartered Bank in Lagos in connection to the same alleged ‘irresponsible market behaviour’, of which the CBN has already fined and debited the bank. When the bank raised alarm and pointed towards official intimidation, the leadership of EFCC denied ordering the raid.

    DSTV is battling with its regulator over its increase in subscription rates of its various bouquets. The Big Five accounting firms are still battling the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria over the new reporting standards published by the regulatory agency. The Consumer Protection Council (CPC) and National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) shut Krispy Kreme’s operations over alleged use of expired products only to open it a few days later.

    These are prominent players in the economy that are being hoodwinked by agents of the same Presidency that is seeking to be re-elected. A rookie analyst knows that this level of highhandedness being displayed by government agencies may shrink profitability and may result in company fold up or staff retrenchment.

    If Buhari losses at the polls, if the prediction of The Economist comes to pass, it may not have come from the excellent work of the opposition but from the various government agencies that may have succeeded in de-marketing the president to the voting masses. A kingdom divided against itself can never stand.

     

    Ezedi Udom is Chief Executive Officer

    , Reputation Solution Providers

  • CBN may be shooting self in the foot over witch hunt of MTN

    The debate over the tax compliance of MTN and the alleged illegal transfer of equity through four banks have dominated the tabloids for the last few weeks. The findings were brought to public knowledge when the letters sent by CBN to the four banks in question were released to the public.

    These accusations have caused serious turmoil for MTN and its operations, so much so that Paul Theron – Veteran TV host and CEO of Vestact, a financial asset management company, has called out the Nigerian government in a statement saying “You could expect this kind of behavior from really third-string countries, but Nigeria is supposedly a country that takes itself seriously — it doesn’t seem to be consistent at all.”

    The letters revealed by the CBN detailed a number of transactions which may have violated foreign exchange laws, especially those regarding the repatriation of MTN assets via what has been called “illegal” CCIs (Certificates of capital importation).

    What this means in layman’s terms is that MTN transferred some of its assets from its country of origin to Nigeria, courtesy of a couple of banks and CBN is looking into the situation to validate if this process complied with its foreign exchange policies.

    These accusations have seriously hurt the market share of the telco giants, as recent reports show a plunge in the company’s share price with about $3 billion knocked off from its market capitalisation, after tumbling by 14 percent to a nine-year low of 2,030.76 NGN.

    It is safe to say the last 2 weeks have been less than pleasant for MTN Nigeria, and CEO Rob Shuter has decried the “peculiar and coincidental timing” of what appears to be a regulatory assault on its business in the country, but also reinforced MTN’s stance in proving its innocence of all allegations.

    The first part of this bizarre saga is how such high-level information has been able to become so public. Considering the media coverage that has followed this story, one may have confused this for a gossip feature. The “confidential” letters sent to these banks were rather unusually released to the public and the CBN further corroborated the story by tweeting about the investigations.

    The second interesting aspect of this story is how quickly the story has developed. From rumors and leaks to outright fines and even debiting of bank accounts, the speed with which this story has taken a turn for the worse, particularly for the banks, has been rather uncharacteristic of our usual tepid government.

    To provide a quick retrospective look and to put this into proper context, let’s look back at how the story has evolved since the CBN released those letters. The regulator immediately asked MTN to refund the sum of $8.1 billion dollars which it claims may have been illegally repatriated by the telecommunication company. While the 4 banks (Stanbic IBTC, Diamond Bank, Standard Chartered and CitiBank) were slapped with hefty fines ranging from NGN 250 million to NGN 2.4 million dollars.

    MTN on its part expressed its innocence explaining that the MTN Group and the original shareholders injected a total of $402, 625,419 into MTN Nigeria between 2001 and 2006 in the form of loans and equity. These initial inflows were the basis for the issuance of various legacy CCIs obtained from Authorized Dealers in accordance with regulations. All of these, including the inflow of capital, has long been confirmed by the CBN.

    The subject of “illegally” obtained CCIs has also been addressed. The reality is that the CCI process is essentially in place both for the protection of investors as well as to provide the CBN with documentary evidence for monitoring capital inflows and outflows.

    Although over time the CCIs have been reissued, consolidated and reconstituted to reflect the changing MTN capital and shareholding structure, the amount of NGN 402,625,419, has remained the same.

    One aspect of the changing capital structure was the conversion of shareholder loans to preference shares, meaning the latest transfer of equity is in no way a violation of the law.

    Section 15 (5) of the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1995, states that, “The repatriation referred to in subsection (4) –  which deals with foreign exchange imported into Nigeria and its remittance – of this section shall be communicated by an authorized dealer to the Central Bank, within fourteen days of the repatriation and the Central Bank shall furnish same to the Minister on a monthly basis for information and statistical purposes only.”

    According to this law, this means that the dispute should be between the four banks and the CBN, not MTN, but once again, the brand’s name has been dragged through the mud without a proper investigation into the issue.

    Even after all parties expressed their innocence and provided substantial proof, the attorney general, reprimanded MTN again and slapped the company with $2.0 billion fine.

    The fine is due to alleged lack of tax compliance by the telco and this comes after the company has revealed its books detailing an assessment of the full period in question. The numbers indicate that the total payments made to the tax authorities in regard to these foreign imports and payments in aggregate are $700 million and also detailed the valid reasons for the differences between the actual payments and the Attorney general’s assessment.

    Through it all, the brand has remained calm and consistent with CEO Rob Shuter quoted by Bloomberg as saying that, “We have a proud history of being a major partner to the people of Nigeria and notwithstanding our current difficulties are firmly resolved to continue to do so”.

    One of the key talking points about this story is how MTN has once again become the scapegoat in yet another episode of what many are calling a witch hunt. The banks who were involved in this saga have been relegated to a sub-plot in a story which MTN is front and center, continually being labeled a villain.

    This would have been somewhat justifiable if the facts actually added up, but all indications suggest that the CBN may not have done proper investigations before name-dropping these brands.

    On MTN’s side of the story, the telecommunications giant has been open with their books, revealing their tax payments over the course of their operations in Nigeria, and even detailing their $18 billion-dollar investment in the country since it began operations. This is in addition to the N2 trillion paid in taxes and levies since it began operation since Nigeria.

    This is particularly worrying considering the latest revelations of dwindling foreign investment in Nigeria. In recent years, Nigeria’s FDI has been struggling. It reached a mediocre $981mn in 2017, a far cry from its previous peak of $5bn in 2008.

    The plummeting FDI situation is worsened by a poor investment climate characterized by overly stringent or impromptu government policies, bureaucratic bottlenecks for securing permits, and a weak legal framework.

    MTN is one of our most successful foreign investors and instead of encouraging the multi-national company, it seems like the government is hell-bent on frustrating the company.

    MTN has been slammed with fine after fine for some rather ludicrous reasons. Such punishments cannot be encouraging for would-be investors, many of whom already hold the notion that they are regarded as cash cows for exploitation by African governments.

    It is also noteworthy that Nigeria’s GDP hasn’t been impressive of late, the country has suffered a yearly dip since 2014 when it peaked at $568.5 billion. Even with the 0.82 percent increase 2017, the nation’s gross domestic output is still suffering from the inconsistency of oil prices. The real take away from these numbers is, looking at how much MTN has paid in taxes and levies (in excess of 2 trillion Naira), and realising just how big a contributor they are to Nigeria’s GDP.

    MTN has directly and indirectly, provided 500,000 jobs in Nigeria and has contributed immensely to the economy and it’s somewhat bizarre that such a huge company is being dragged in the mud before an appropriate investigation is even carried out.

    If MTN is guilty of these crimes then, by all means, they should face the penalty, but considering just how much facts have been provided by the telecom giant, they seem pretty convinced of their innocence. Furthermore, neither the CBN nor the attorney general has provided a direct response to the facts provided by MTN, making this whole ordeal even more worrisome.

    The reasoning for this inexplicable witch hunt is up for anyone’s guess. This may be due to a lack of oversight by the government or to protect private interests. However, the fact still remains, if the government and its policies continue to deter foreign investors, it is only a matter of time before we lose these multinationals.

    In a bid to protect its assets and investors against further action from the Attorney General of the Federation and the Central Bank of Nigeria, MTN on Monday, September 10th filed for an injunctive relief with the Federal High Court in Lagos.

    In a statement issued by the company, Tobe Okigbo, MTN Nigeria’s Corporate Relations Executive was quoted as saying;

    “MTN Nigeria Communications Limited (MTN Nigeria) continues to categorically and unequivocally deny all charges related to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) investigations into the company’s CCIs and unpaid taxes respectively.

    “The simple reality is that MTN Nigeria has never repatriated dividends on the CCIs referenced by the CBN and that MTN is fully compliant with Nigerian tax law.

    “In order to protect MTN Nigeria’s assets and shareholder rights within the confines of the law, we have applied today in the Federal High Court of Nigeria for injunctive relief restraining the CBN and the AGF from taking further action in respect of their orders, while we continue to engage with the relevant authorities on these matters,”

    Only time will tell how this story will eventually end, but if history has taught us anything, it is that MTN will persist through this just like they have in previous occasions or maybe, just maybe this may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

    Tunji Andrews is Lead Economist at Time, Trade and Commodities (TTAC)

  • Africa-China’s debt diplomacy

    Loans have been used as weapon of underdevelopment of Africa by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. Loans from China are irresistible because they come with less strings attached on matters such as governance, democracy or human rights. Bureaucrats too can easily get a cut without much accountability. Yet, the loans are like a Trojan horse. Its consequences will be far-reaching.

    While the British expanded the empire through conquest, China understands a subtle approach, which is sovereign debt. It is now the ammunition of choice for China to penetrate developing countries and get them to suit its expanding economic and military interests.

    China hosted leaders from across Africa for a summit in Beijing. The last summit was held in December 2015 in Johannesburg, South Africa, where Chinese President Xi Jinping announced $60 billion in funding support for infrastructure development in Africa. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation included an eye-popping announcement of billions of dollars more in Chinese financing to build infrastructure across the continent. But these massive loans can come with steep and opaque conditions.

    China’s billion dollar loans to Africa will not transform the manufacturing sector on the continent. It is not a new argument that these Chinese loans will not bring good institutions, infrastructure, human capital and technology. The loans will not drive manufacturing-led growth in Africa. This is debt diplomacy between China and Africa.

    So far, the structural transformation that shifts productive resources from agriculture and mining to manufacturing – which has helped many countries achieve greater prosperity – has bypassed most African countries. The limited structural transformation in Africa has not translated into more jobs, because the manufacturing sector itself requires extensive reform.

    Therefore, what Africa needs is a manufacturing renaissance, with more local value-addition that would create more and better-paid jobs, and contribute to fulfilling the aspirations of the Agenda 2063. Chinese loans for Africa could not make African countries become more resilient to economic shocks and less dependent on natural resource exports. Africa can achieve ambitious goal if it taps into available opportunities, while mitigating the challenges it faces.

    It’s tempting for European countries and Americans to think this is not our problem. But as African countries sink deeper and deeper into Beijing’s carefully laid debt trap, the United States could pay a steep cost in reduced cooperation on counterterrorism and job creation.

    Chinese debt has become the methamphetamines of infrastructure finance: highly addictive, readily available, and with long-term negative effects that far outweigh any temporary high. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa, where China has become the largest provider of bilateral loans. Forty percent of sub-Saharan African countries are already at high risk of debt distress; by having so much debt concentrated in the hands of a single lender, they are dangerously beholden to their supplier.

    Why does this matter? Because in Africa and elsewhere, governments have secured massive loans from Beijing using strategic assets—such as oil, minerals, and land rights— as collateral. If borrower nations find themselves unable to repay the loan, China can claim the strategic asset. Sri Lanka recently learned this the hard way and handed over control of the port of Hambantota, giving China a strategic foothold along a busy trade waterway.

    While Chinese debt diplomacy may not seem relevant to most Americans, it is a serious threat to US national security. Most directly, China’s crafty negotiations and seizure of strategic assets can limit US influence and access overseas.

    For instance, the tiny country of Djibouti is home to the most significant American military base in Africa. Thanks to Chinese loans, Djibouti’s debt-to-GDP ratio surged from 50 to 85 percent between 2014 and 2016. If Djibouti were to default and relinquish the port that resupplies the US base, American military capability in Africa and the Middle East could be seriously threatened.

    More broadly, unsustainable levels of debt can destabilize African states, which also compromises American security interests. Over-leveraged governments can get caught in a downward spiral of credit downgrades, reckless economic policies, and reduced spending on social services. With economic stagnation comes fewer opportunities for Africa’s fast-growing and young population. And the toxic brew of economic hopelessness and political disillusionment can drive disaffected youth toward violent extremism. That can threaten Americans abroad and, potentially, even at home.

    Finally, China’s debt diplomacy shuts out opportunities for US businesses. Not only do Beijing’s cheap infrastructure loans come with conditions to employ Chinese companies, they also set out technical specifications for projects like high-speed railways and wireless networks in a manner that favours Chinese firms. The combined effect of these efforts “would push the United States away from its current position in the global economy and move China toward the centre,” according to Jonathan Hillman, a fellow at the Center for International and Strategic Studies. China already earns $180 billion annually from its investments in Africa; if its debt diplomacy remains uncontested, it’s likely that even more revenues and jobs will flow to China, instead of the US.

    But this outcome is far from inevitable. The US has plenty of good options, but it needs to dramatically step up its game and support alternatives to Beijing’s aggressive finance initiatives. Perhaps most fundamentally, the US needs to focus on boosting African economic growth. Helping African states to strengthen investment climates and economic governance will help them attract more private sector capital and provide more entry points for US companies. A key component is assisting African efforts to increase transparency, so that all the costs and benefits of project finance options are openly known. Fully staffing US embassies and offering more technical assistance to evaluate loan agreements and investment contracts would be a good start.

    To date, the Trump Administration’s Africa policy has been adrift, defined more by racial epithets than any cohesive strategy or results. By comparison, China has a clear vision that will yield long-term benefits. In Africa and around the world, much more needs to be done to confront Chinese debt diplomacy. If not, the US will pay a heavy price in its commercial and national security interests.

    If not tamed, the loans from China will continue to subject poor nations into new rounds of dependency, and therefore, will lead them down a path to more underdevelopment.

    • By Inwalomhe Donald

    Benin City.

     

     

  • Osun: Why solid education and competence matter

    The race to succeed Governor Rauf Aregbesola in Osun State is now getting to the wire with barely a week to the all-important election. The September 22 poll is important in more ways than one. Coming after the Ekiti July 14 election, the Osun poll is one of those elections that would herald the 2019 general election. As one of the forerunners of the 2019 election, it would serve as an indicator, giving us an idea of what to expect at the general election, particularly in terms of the preparedness and actual performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission and security agencies and the likely voter turnout given the seeming voter apathy in the land. It was just the same way the 2014 elections in Ekiti and Osun, with its varied electoral tales in the two states, foretold then of what was to come in 2015, leaving a sour taste in the mouth. In that ensuing 2015 election, however, the then newly-cobbled rainbow coalition that is the All Progressives Congress eventually uprooted a sitting incumbent at the centre for the first time in Nigeria’s political history.

    Specifically for us in Osun, next Saturday’s election is significant for what it portends for the future of the state in the next four years. It will determine who takes over from Governor Aregbesola who in eight years laid a solid infrastructural and socio-economic foundation for the state to move to the next level, which is economic development and industrialisation level. It is a big electoral decision we have to make and a mistake may prove too costly as it may set the state back irretrievably.

    Created in 1991, Osun has indeed recorded giant strides under Aregbesola. With the good network of roads particularly in the capital Osogbo and the various educational infrastructure put in place across the entire state, the governor has done more than his predecessor in the state. According to official statistics, the Aregbesola government delivered over 1000 kilometres of urban roads across the states, particularly in the capital Osogbo that has been beautifully transformed, reconstructed up to 27 intercity roads, covering 381.89 km and upgraded 81 township roads, covering over 255.17 km.

    The administration improved the economic and financial management of the state, shoring up Internally Generated Revenue from N300 million to an average of N1.3 billion per month. Among other laudable things, the government also established multi-billion Osun Micro-Credit Agency for cooperative groups and societies in a bid to indirectly power small scale businesses.

    Critics of the administration may draw attention, as they often do, to the occasional delay in payment of salaries and pensions, but truth is given the parlous state of the finances of the state, it is a miracle that the governor could keep its salary and other financial obligations and yet able to embark on the laudable projects it has delivered thus far.

    Indeed, it is partly a measure of the enviable height Osun has attained under Aregbesola that it has witnessed the kind of intense interest the governorship race is generating. More than anything else, however, it is this matter of the governor’s fine performance, the credentials and competences or otherwise of those aspiring to take over from him and the challenges confronting the state that should dominate debate at present. However, sadly but not unexpectedly, the race has been low on issues and high on destructive campaigns. We must not allow ourselves to be hoodwinked or be distracted. What is at stake is too serious and too important. It’s about the future of our state. We must pay attention and interrogate the competences of those that have come forward for the exalted job for the sake of our people and generations yet unborn in the state.

    The race parades the contenders and pretenders, those who know they lack what it takes to lead us in Osun and yet continue to grandstand as potential governors of the state. On one extreme is one candidate, the All Progressives Congress candidate, Alhaji Isiaka Adegboyega Oyetola alias Ileri-Oluwa, in a class of his own, imbued with solid education, private sector experience spanning over 30 years and excellent record of performance as Chief of Staff in the outgoing administration. At the other end is another candidate, bereft of education and ideas, his main qualification and experience being credit in dancing. In between is a mixed grill of the good and the bad. The tolerable and intolerable and even the distasteful.

    It’s perhaps owing to their widely-known inadequacies that some in the race have elected to indulge in the reprehensible. They concoct lies, spread fake reports and launch disruptive campaigns. Rather than canvass ideas and articulate issues that will help uplift the people they want to govern, they trade in barbs and campaigns of calumny, indeed confirming the correctness of those immortal words of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, that only the deep can reach out to the deep. You cannot give what you don’t have. Knowing full well Oyetola is the man for the job and the one to beat, they move to delimit and de-market him. They claim he is in the race to engage in wanton wealth accumulation. But not a few know Oyetola has achieved financial success in his private life before coming into politics and has a reputation for honesty and integrity. Such a person is not one that can be said to be running for governor to accumulate wealth. He is not an opportunist who is out to get rich with Osun’s funds.

    The opposition also attempted to twist the APC National Leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s remarks at the palace of Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Olanipekun, to give the impression he disparaged the traditional ruler and Osogbo people. This writer was at the courtesy visit. Asiwaju was received with pomp and ceremony by a traditional ruler who said the visit was an opportunity for him to show gratitude to the APC leader for his tremendous support when he had challenges over the throne. Asiwaju neither disparaged the traditional ruler nor demeaned the people of Osogbo.

    Given his background and record over the years, is Asiwaju the type of person or politician who will disparage anybody or group of people on account of whether they are rich or poor?

    Asiwaju has always stressed the fact that he was born into poverty and had to achieve success in life through much suffering, perseverance and industry. This is also true of many of our great leaders including heroes like Chief Obafemi Awolowo and MKO Abiola. Like these icons, Asiwaju’s goal in politics is to utilise all he has to help empower people and lift them out of poverty.  His message at the Ataoja’s palace was that this is also the mission of Oyetola in politics and not to accumulate wealth.

     

    • Rahman, former Editor Thisday on Saturday and Sunday Newspapers, hails from Iwo in Osun State.