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  • Venezuela isn’t Panama – No matter how much Trump wishes it were

    Venezuela isn’t Panama – No matter how much Trump wishes it were

    • By Bobby Ghosh

    The last time an American president ordered troops to snatch a Latin American strongman, I was a young journalist half a world away, watching grainy footage of Operation Just Cause on a bulky television set. The 1989 invasion of Panama, which resulted in the capture and eventual trial of Manuel Noriega on drug trafficking charges, is remembered in Washington as a model intervention: quick, decisive, and blessedly free of the quagmire that would come to define American military adventures in the decades that followed.

    It’s no surprise, then, that the architects of President Trump’s “large-scale strike” on Venezuela are inviting comparisons to Panama. The framing is almost identical: a corrupt narco-dictator, a surgical operation, an extraction to face American justice. On Saturday morning, as smoke rose over Caracas and Venezuelans ran through darkened streets, Trump hailed what he called a “brilliant operation” with “great, great troops.” Nicolás Maduro and his wife, he announced, had been captured and flown out of the country.

    But Venezuela is not Panama. And if the Trump Administration believes it can replicate the success of Just Cause, it is setting itself up for a rude awakening.

    Start with the most obvious difference: geography and American presence. When George H.W. Bush ordered the invasion of Panama, the United States had more than 10,000 troops already stationed there. The headquarters of Southern Command sat on Panamanian soil. American forces didn’t need to project power across the Caribbean; they were already in place, ready to guarantee a transition of government and install Guillermo Endara as president. They could—and did—dismantle the Panama Defense Forces entirely.

    Venezuela presents an entirely different challenge. The USS Gerald R. Ford and the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group may be imposing vessels, but they are floating offshore, not embedded in the country. A smash-and-grab operation can remove a head of state. It cannot, by itself, govern a nation of some 28 million people.

    Then there is the matter of what, exactly, replaces Maduro. Panama was a small country that had been, since its founding, effectively under American tutelage. Venezuela has its own complex political ecosystem, one that does not simply default to the opposition the moment the strongman is removed. The Bolivarian Armed Forces—the FANB—remain intact. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López has already called for a “massive deployment” of military forces to resist foreign troops. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is demanding proof of life and insisting the government will not yield.

    The FANB is not the Panama Defense Forces. It has been systematically restructured under both Chávez and Maduro to “coup-proof” it—fragmenting command and control, fomenting internal competition based on political loyalty, and purging any officers who seemed to pose a threat to the political status quo. Those who weren’t dismissed were jailed or forced into exile. The bonds between civilian authorities and the military are cemented by the profits of illicit economies that enrich both corrupt government officials and senior officers. They are complicit together, and they know it.

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    We have seen this movie before. In 2019, the Trump Administration threw its weight behind Juan Guaidó, expecting that a display of American resolve would fracture the regime. It didn’t. The military held. Officers understood that a move against Maduro without clear guarantees of immunity meant risking imprisonment, torture, confiscation of assets, and the ill-treatment of their families. Nothing about Saturday’s operation changes that calculus. The U.S. raid may have removed a head of state, but it cannot offer the FANB’s senior leadership a credible path to safety—and without that, it’s hard to see why they would cooperate with a transition rather than fight to prevent one.

    There is also the matter of oil. Panama had the canal; Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Maduro’s government was quick to accuse Washington of seeking to seize these resources – a charge that will resonate across Latin America and beyond, regardless of its accuracy. Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel has denounced the attack as “criminal.” Colombia’s Gustavo Petro is deploying forces to the border in anticipation of refugees. China, which has invested billions in Venezuela and counts Caracas as a strategic partner, will not view American intervention with equanimity.

    None of this is to say that Maduro deserved to remain in power. He almost certainly did not win the July 2024 election, and his government’s human rights record is abysmal. The question is not whether he was a legitimate leader—it’s whether this operation will produce a better outcome for Venezuelans, or merely a more chaotic one.

    The Trump Administration has pointedly avoided saying whether it sought congressional authorization for the strike. That silence speaks volumes. So does the absence of any articulated plan for what comes next. Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader in exile, has vocally supported the American pressure campaign. But supporting airstrikes from abroad is rather different from governing a fractured country from Caracas.

    I covered Iraq for years, and I learned this lesson there: removing a dictator is the simple part. The hard work—the work that determines whether an intervention succeeds or fails—comes afterward. It requires not just military force but diplomatic engagement, regional buy-in, and a plan for political transition that accounts for the interests of those who held power under the old regime. Operation Iraqi Freedom, despite its name, delivered precious little freedom to Iraqis precisely because the Bush Administration believed that toppling Saddam Hussein was the main event rather than the opening act.

    The early hours after Maduro’s capture suggest the Trump Administration has not absorbed this lesson. There are airstrikes and declarations of victory, but no evident plan for the day after. The FANB remains in place. The government is calling for resistance. Regional allies are divided or hostile. Mexico’s left-wing government has condemned the operation, saying any form of military action “seriously jeopardizes regional stability.”

    Argentina’s Javier Milei may have posted “Freedom lives” on social media, but freedom in Venezuela will require more than a catchy slogan. It will require the painstaking, unglamorous work of building a legitimate government in a country whose institutions have been hollowed out by decades of authoritarianism.

    That work cannot be accomplished from the deck of an aircraft carrier. And it certainly cannot be accomplished by an Administration that believes removing one man from power is the same as changing a nation’s fate.

    ·           This article was first published in www.time.com

  • Europe’s three ring circus

    Europe’s three ring circus

    • By Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth

    Chasing peace in Ukraine has become a three-ring circus. In ring number one is Team Trump, trying to foist an untenable plan on Ukraine.

    In ring two is the European-led coalition of the willing. Yet, beyond photo ops, this coalition is not doing enough to change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cost calculus.

    Part of the problem is how peace is defined. For Putin, it’s no more resistance from Ukraine. For Zelensky, it’s no more Russian forces in Ukraine. And for Trump – it’s the pursuit of “economic opportunities,” and that means Russia and Ukraine are not killing one another.

    Ring three? The Kremlin.

    Russian circuses are globally renowned. Grand illusions and deceptions are at the core of magic performances.

    Putin isn’t negotiating in his ring. Instead, he is maintaining a maximalist position and demanding Ukraine’s capitulation. all the while creating division between the US and NATO. It’s working. And Republican Thomas Massie (R-KY) is his latest useful idiot.

    On Wednesday, Massie introduced a bill in the House to terminate US membership in NATO – the defensive Transatlantic alliance the US help found in 1949. He incredulously argues that “NATO is a Cold War relic.”

    Really?

    What world is he living in?

    Per the 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey, 68 percent of Americans support the NATO alliance.

    As negotiators gather in Kyiv, US Republicans close ranks around a hard-edged peace framework, European capitals prepare security guarantees – and Moscow escalates militarily to shape the talks.

    Russia and China pose as great of a threat to our way of life as Nazi Germany and Japan did in 1941. Yet, Massie’s reaction to that is to stand down. Arguably an even greater threat given that both are nuclear powers.

    Too many in Washington are disconnected from the reality of growing – certainly not diminishing – threats from Moscow and Beijing and their Arsenals of Evil allies.

    Ring one

    US President Donald Trump, as a ringmaster, is quixotic. Seemingly, he believes the US is only a business deal or two away from striking a long-lasting peace deal with Putin. Or at least that is what his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff are peddling to Trump. Yet dollar bills won’t stop bullets.

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    To get there faster, he’s installed an allegorical guillotine in his ring. Either President Volodymyr Zelensky yields to Trump’s demands over ceding the Donbas or Ukraine potentially faces execution in the form of an end to US intel, weapons and munitions. Unless, of course, Europe gets in the way.

    As we observed during our weekly Tuesday War & Politics 24 show hosted by Daniel Tkiie and Sofiia Nazarenko – it’s on YouTube first and then dubbed for over-the-air broadcast on Kanal 24 in Ukraine – Trump wants it badly.

    Yet what Trump wants – and just as importantly the price that he is willing to pay for it – is bad for Ukraine and it is bad for the security of Europe.

    Ceding the Donbas to Putin – as Trump is demanding – would be (as we have often said) akin to Ukraine committing national suicide. It would also mean the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) withdrawing from its fortress in the Donbas and its critical defensive beltlines holding back the Russian horde.

    Abandoning these beltlines would endanger Kyiv and Ukraine’s strategic port city of Odesa on the Black Sea. Losing the latter would imperil Kyiv’s economy which depends in part on grain exports as one of the world’s largest food baskets.

    To best understand its strategic value, consider what it has cost Russia trying to capture it militarily. According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Russian forces have seized roughly 4,669 square kilometers since Jan. 1, 2025.”

    They’ve incurred 391,270 casualties or as the ISW calculates, “83 [dead or wounded] per square kilometer.” Essentially, Putin’s false lauding of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine – claims Team Trump appears to buy – are still only at a “footpace.”

    Forcing Ukraine to give Putin at the negotiating table what his armies cannot take on the battlefield would be madness. It would also be proof positive that Washington learned nothing from British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler.

    Sacrificing Ukraine’s security because of Team Trump’s haste to start striking business deals in Russia would prove just as fleeting over time as Chamberlain’s sacrifice of Czechoslovakia. As we warned last week in Kyiv Post, Putin isn’t interested in Witkoff and Kushner’s business deals. He wants Ukraine and he aims to destroy NATO.

    Republican Don Bacon (R-NE) understands what’s at stake. He said on X, “I totally disagree with President Trump asking Ukraine to give up additional territory for a peace deal. This rewards the invader and does nothing to guarantee peace in years to come. This is appeasement. This is not Reagan, but it is Chamberlain.”

    Not only that – Trump 47 is completely ignoring the law Trump 45 signed in 2017 that mandated the US would “never recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea by the Government of the Russian Federation or the separation of any portion of Ukrainian territory through the use of military force.”

    Congress in general is pushing back as well. As we highlighted in Monday’s’ INTREP360 Intelligence Report,, the bipartisan 2026 National Defense Authorization Act stipulates that US troops in Europe levels cannot permanently drop below 76,000 and it provides $400 million in symbolic aid to Ukraine over the next two years.

    Ring two

    Ring two – the center ring in a circus – is likely where the war in Ukraine gets decided. Europe’s long-term security is in Putin’s crosshairs depending on the outcome.

    Indeed, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Sunday after meeting with Zelensky, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in London, that “Ukraine’s fate is Europe’s fate.”

    Zelensky is the main act. However, what is missing is a ringmaster willing to step up to the plate and lead Europe’s collective response. Not just to Trump. But to Putin and his Kremlin cronies such as Kirill Dmtriev as well.

    Photo ops are not going to stop Putin’s war against Ukraine. Nor will they prevent Trump from bullying Zelensky into a bad deal.

    Despite the European bravado in London, Claire Gatinois and Philippe Ricard reporting for Le Monde, assess that Europe is choosing “a muted response toward the US” and shying away from a direct confrontation with Trump. Zelensky did his best to remind Europe’s E3 powers that collectively they do “have a lot of cards to play.”

    The problem is that Europe is feckless when it comes to playing them. Macron talks a grandiose game – in October he hyped SkyShield as a European way of defending “Ukrainian airspace from Russian drones and missiles” – yet nothing ever gets done that will truly change Putin’s cost calculus to force him to end the war.

    They are also failing to stop Trump from giving new cards to Putin every time Kushner and Witkoff hit a negotiating wall with Putin. Merz, Starmer and Macron could counter Team Trump’s overtures to Russia by immediately handing Ukraine its own new cards – SkyShield, Taurus missiles, air defense batteries, etc. – but the leadership and boldness to do so is lacking in London, Paris and Berlin. They are still afraid to swim alone in the deep end.

    Instead, Europe is focused on pushing its counter-peace proposal. In theory, it is a welcomed counterproposal. It reconfirms Ukraine’s sovereignty. It deletes Washington’s proviso that NATO won’t expand. It maintains a sizable Ukrainian army – capped at 800,000 or roughly just slightly smaller than its present size.

    It also rejects Kyiv ceding territory not occupied by Russia. Plus, it leaves a narrow pathway for Ukraine at some further point to join NATO negating any current or future Russian say in who can or cannot join the Transatlantic alliance.

    Nonetheless, it lacks teeth. Putin is not going to agree to any of that, especially while Team Trump is saying he doesn’t have to. Hence the need to act alone – Putin does not respect this “coalition of the willing,” and won’t until they draw blood.

    Thus, unless Europe immediately puts skin in the game – e.g., SkyShield – they are simply – in reality – acquiescing to Trump. Even worse, acquiescing to Trump means Europe is on a glidepath to acquiesce to Putin’s maximalist demands.

    If they do, Europe is potentially tying its own hangman’s noose around their neck. Notably, as we pointed out here on Monday, Sergey Karaganov, the head of Russia’s Council to Foreign and Defense Policy, declared last week that: “We are at war with Europe, not with the miserable, pitiful, misled Ukraine.”

    Europe should listen. Russia is not mincing words.

    Ring three

    This ring – the Kremlin’s ring – is the most straightforward. And yet, paradoxically, it is also the most deceptive.

    Essentially, Putin has built it with smoke and mirrors. He is projecting a false sense of strength that betrays his military and economic reality. He is writing checks neither his military nor economy can cash – speed is the essence, and he has President Trump putting his foot down on the gas pedal.

    His armies in Ukraine still only advance at a foot’s pace and only after sustaining unsustainable losses. Despite General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, telling Putin in late that Russian forces had taken control of Kupiansk in late November – a Ukrainian town near the border with Russia in the northeast – the AFU has now encircled Russian troops after cutting their supply lines.

    It is also clear that Russia never fully took the city. Putin needed a public relations win in Moscow to impress Kushner and Witkoff and Gerasimov gave him a fake talking point that apparently Team Trump swallowed without counsel from their own military advisors, intelligence analysts, and career diplomats.

    Plus, significantly, as the Institute for the Study of War observed: “Russia’s [military and economic] resources are not endless, as Putin is trying to assert.” Despite maintaining his maximalist negotiating position with Trump, Putin is leading a country that is severely weakened and facing difficult choices going forward. As retired Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges suggested, Ukraine struck a third Russian shadow fleet oil tanker this week in the Black Sea to add to Moscow’s economic woes.

    For now, however, Putin can avoid making them so long as Team Trump keeps capitulating to him. Every time Putin says no, Trump eventually gives Putin another concession and/or goes on the attack against Zelensky as he did Wednesday.

    This time it was questioning whether Ukraine is a democracy – one of Putin’s main talking points – and calling for Ukraine to hold elections despite its constitution banning them under Article 83 during states of emergency or martial law.

    For now, Putin is content to be his own ringmaster telling his audience to look everywhere else but the reality of his failing ‘special military operation.’

    If Trump can finally see that, then he can put an end to the killing he claims to want to stop. But not by capitulating to Putin. The killing stops when Russia stops attacking. Trump can achieve that by backing Ukraine to the hilt to force Moscow to a real negotiating table that is not part of a circus act.

    Unfortunately, Trump is not there yet. Instead of pressuring Russia – the aggressor – he continues to punish Ukraine for defending itself against an illegal Russian invasion.

    Putin has long desired to get rid of Zelensky. He believes – as likely Trump does too – the easiest way of doing that is for Ukraine to hold elections and that a war-weary country will oust him from office.

    To that end, Zelensky’s decision to explore a referendum not just about elections but over ceding Ukrainian territory – most notably its Fortress Donbas that strategically guards Kyiv and Odesa – is a wise counter to Putin’s gamesmanship.

    It is up to Ukrainians do decide both issues. But as this three-ring circus soon stretches into a fifth year comes Feb. 23rd, we will leave you this thought. Why does Putin want Zelensky gone?

    It certainly is not because he believes it is good for Ukraine. Rather, he knows it would be good for Russia.

    Why give Putin what he wants? As is, he has taken far too much treasure and blood from Ukraine.

    ·           This article was originally published in www.kyivpost.com

  • 2026: Enugu’s year of accelerated consolidation, renewed momentum

    2026: Enugu’s year of accelerated consolidation, renewed momentum

    • By Peter Mbah

    As we welcome the first light of 2026, I want us to pause and look at where we stand as a people. That is because this moment is more than a transition from one year to the next. It is a solemn passage – an opportunity to reflect on the journey we have taken together; not just on what we have built, but what has awakened in us.

    The dawn of a new year is often a moment of optimism. Our optimism is not abstract. It is grounded in the concrete work we have done. So, as we look forward, let us briefly reflect on where we are.

    The story of Enugu today goes beyond our schools, roads and hospitals. It is written in our self-belief, in our partnership, and in the courage we summoned to imagine a future far brighter than the one we inherited. Three years ago, much of what we now take for granted existed only as hope in the hearts of a determined people. The smart schools rising in all our wards were once nothing more than a bold idea.

    The revival of our assets, the transformation of our transport system, the return of water to our taps, the rebirth of security and confidence in our communities, the surge of investment and visitors to Enugu, all these were seeds – fragile, uncertain, demanding extraordinary faith. Yet we planted them. Together. We planted when the path was unclear, when the nights felt long, and when early steps brought more questions than answers. And because we stayed the course, the seed has grown into something that touches every life in this state today. Because we trusted each other, because we rejected despair and chose unity over division, Enugu stands this morning as one of the clearest success stories in our country. We have become a beacon for others who need hope and inspiration in what is possible when a people move with unity and purpose.

    But Ndi Enugu, it is far easier to rise than it is to remain standing. And it is even harder to rise again, and yet again.

    That is why this year demands more of us than the years before. 2026 is not a victory lap. It is a humble continuation of a journey that is nowhere near finished. This is the year where the work deepens, where the foundations we laid must be strengthened, where momentum must not only be sustained but accelerated.

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    Today, across the 260 wards of our state, Smart Green Schools stand ready for January opening. Digital whiteboards, Robotics labs, solar power, dedicated teachers, and the largest school feeding programme in our history await the children.

    In two weeks, they will walk into schools that prepare them for the emerging world. Our healthcare system has taken a decisive turn. 260 healthcare centres, one in every ward, are nearing completion. Fifty-one secondary health facilities are being upgraded. Diagnostics that once required travel to Abuja or Lagos will now be available at home. Every child will have access to quality care.

    Our transport system is being rebuilt piece by piece. Five modern bus terminals are already active, mass transit is expanding, city taxis are being replaced with safer, cleaner vehicles, and new terminals are coming to Emene, Udi, Awgu, 4-Corners and Obollo Afor. These are the beginnings of a system that will change how an entire state moves, lives and works.

    Look around the city and you will see roads opening in every direction. You will see water where taps had been dry. You will see streetlights where darkness once slowed our steps. You will see small businesses reopening, foreign visitors returning, hotels filled again, conference halls alive with debate, and communities that no longer have to look over their shoulders because our security is working.

    Our farmers now stand at the doorstep of a new agricultural economy, with 260 Farm Estates that would reach full traction this year. No farmer should lose his harvest to rot again. We are building both farms and futures.

    Ndi Enugu, these achievements are the triumph of partnership. They are the result of your patience, your trust, your willingness to push through doubt and disappointment, your courage to believe when belief felt like a risk. And it is these same qualities that must guide us now, because the road ahead is bold and demanding.

    What we have begun is not fleeting – it must now be secured for generations.

    The year 2026 will test our discipline and endurance. It will test our ability to protect the progress we have made while reaching for larger goals. We need to ensure that revenue stays strong. The progress we are seeing depends on our ability to fund what we have started.

    Our economic engines today are firing up with Enugu Air opening new regional routes; the International Conference Centre drawing business and investors; the New Enugu Smart City unlocking large-scale urban and commercial development; revived state assets and new industrial initiatives bringing production back to life; our natural resources adding strength to our revenue base; and a surge in real estate growth driven by confidence in the state.

    This year, our four immersive tourism sites will be unveiled. These include a Zip Line – the first such in Nigeria – two canopy walkway, and a mind-blowing revamp at the enchanting Awhum Waterfall.

    We have to build well, not quickly for applause but carefully for posterity.

    Every kilometre of road, every block of concrete, every public building must meet standards that honour our children’s children. We will strengthen our public service. The scale of work ahead is too large for our current structures. We will recruit, reform, retrain, and insist on accountability. A season that demands excellence definitely abhors mediocrity.

    And above all, we must resist complacency. Success can seduce us into comfort. Comfort slows our steps. And when steps slow, progress slips away. We cannot let that happen. Not now. Not when Enugu is being watched as the example of what disciplined leadership and united citizens can achieve.

    Now let me speak plainly about what this New Year will bring. In 2026, life in Enugu will change in ever more visible and practical ways. Every urban road across our cities will be paved and upgraded with proper drainage and walkways, with many also receiving new streetlights to improve safety.

    Projects like the 9th Mile 24/7 water scheme, the planned Ajali Scheme revamp and Oji River will continue to push clean water directly into more homes across Enugu. All 260 Smart Schools will open fully, offering digital learning, science labs, renewable power and a free daily meal to more than 300,000 children.

    And in every one of our 260 wards, a fully equipped Primary Healthcare Centre will open, staffed and powered to deliver real care when it is needed most. The economic impact will be just as direct. Our farmers will gain access to mechanised tools, modern storage and processing that protect their harvests and increase their income.

    Akanu Ibiam International Airport operations will expand with plans to grow Enugu Air’s fleet to 20 aircraft this year, accelerating trade, tourism and investment.

    Strengthened security infrastructure, ongoing industrial revival efforts, growing support for small and medium enterprises, and expanded connectivity will ensure that more families feel economic opportunity through rising incomes, safer streets and a clearer path to a better life.

    Despite these, we know that our resolve to provide a safe and secure state for Ndi Enugu will be tested by criminal elements. But let me be clear: no crime committed will go undetected and unresolved. We will track and prosecute everyone who has committed a crime. We will never drop our guards.

    Let me end on a more personal note.

    Progress is measured in numbers, yes, but it is lived in the stories we carry back home. Every morning when I leave for work, I see my father sitting by the balcony, watching the world outside with the quiet patience of age. And I often wonder what he sees of the Enugu that is emerging. What stories can a son bring back to a father who has witnessed this state through its most difficult seasons? This is the question for all of us. As we go out into the world: what stories are we bringing home to our elders and to our children?

    Today, we can speak of a mother walking her child down a paved road to a smart classroom, certain that a healthy meal and lifetime opportunity await.

    We can speak of a farmer whose harvest will no longer be left to rot because a processing hub stands close to his fields.

    We can speak of a trader in Ogbete whose shop is busy again because the streets are secure. And we can speak of a young graduate choosing to stay, not leave, because opportunity in Enugu is finally growing as fast as his ambition.

    These are the stories we now carry home: Stories of dignity restored; Stories of a state rising; Stories worthy of those who came before us and of those who will come after.

    The strength of our state comes from the way we have worked together. We did not get here by chance. We got here through discipline, honesty and a shared decision to push forward even when the way was difficult. That same mind-set is what we need now.

    This year calls for focus and commitment. It calls for every one of us to stay engaged, to stay informed, to hold ourselves and our institutions to high standards. We must protect what we have built, finish what we have started, and refuse complacency in any form. If we do that, the progress we see today will not fade. It will grow.

    So, I implore you: stay the course. Support the work. Demand accountability.

    Yet, amidst the air of optimism typical on a day like this, 2025 may still have been, for some, an endless trial, or even a test of strength and faith. Let us rekindle our time-honoured sense of community, embrace ennobling work ethic in our workplace and in our homes, and tear down walls of exclusion.

    Our promise remains firm: we’re still determined to leave no one out in the cold. Public funds will continue to be channelled solely into projects that uplift lives.

    The future of our dear state will be shaped by the choices we make together in this moment.

    I wish every family across Enugu State a peaceful, joyful and prosperous New Year. Tomorrow is here. Let us build it.

  • How FRSC failed Anthony Joshua

    How FRSC failed Anthony Joshua

    • By Tajudeen Kareem

    The tragic road crash which claimed the lives of two close associates of Anthony Joshua—Kevin Latif Ayodele and Sina Ghami, both 36—is not merely an unfortunate accident. It is a blazing indictment of systemic failures, institutional negligence, and a government that has normalized preventable deaths on our highways.

    While the nation breathes a sigh of relief that Joshua survived with minor injuries, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: this tragedy, like many before it, was entirely preventable. The collision with a stationary truck near Sagamu exposes the rot at the core of Nigeria’s road safety infrastructure—a rot characterized by enforcement lethargy, abandoned infrastructure, and a federal agency that appears more adept at issuing press releases than protecting lives.

    The FRSC’s preliminary report attributes the crash to “excessive speed and wrongful overtaking.” While driver error undoubtedly played a role, this narrative conveniently deflects attention from the agency’s own glaring failures. The critical question nobody in authority wants to answer is this: Why was a broken-down truck allowed to remain stationary on one of Nigeria’s busiest expressways?

    Reports indicate that the truck had been parked on the roadside for an extended period—some accounts said three days. This raises fundamental questions about the FRSC’s highway patrol effectiveness. Where were the routine patrols? Why wasn’t the hazard identified and removed? Why weren’t warning signs erected? The FRSC’s subsequent response after the crash is commendable, but it is cold comfort when the agency failed in its primary duty: prevention.

    The corps has spent years touting its speed enforcement initiatives, yet speed limits remain largely theoretical on Nigerian highways. Electronic speed monitoring devices, otherwise called speed limiters, are nowhere to be found. The absence of systematic enforcement means that speed limit laws exist only on paper—another tragic example of Nigeria’s enforcement gap, where regulations abound but compliance is optional.

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    Even more scandalous is the fate of the trailer parks constructed by the Ogun State government specifically to address the menace of stationary trucks on highways. The Gateway Trailer Park at Ogere, commissioned years ago with much fanfare, tells the story of Nigeria’s infrastructure tragedy.

    In 2015, the Ogun State government had to issue evacuation notices for abandoned vehicles at the very facility meant to house them. By 2019, stakeholders were calling for the park’s “revival”—an admission that it had essentially died. In 2021, the state government announced a partnership with the federal government to “resuscitate and develop” the park—further confirmation of its dormancy.

    What happened? The answer is depressingly familiar: lack of maintenance, inadequate management, absence of enforcement compelling truck owners to use the facilities, and the slow decay that afflicts most government projects in Nigeria once the commissioning photographs fade.

    Ogun State built these parks at considerable expense to taxpayers. Yet trucks continue to park dangerously on expressway shoulders, creating death traps for unsuspecting motorists. This represents not just wasted resources but a betrayal of public trust. The parks stand as monuments to governmental incompetence—infrastructure built for political optics rather than operational utility.

    How grim statistics tell the story

    The numbers are staggering and shameful. By mid-2025, nearly 3,000 lives had been lost to road crashes in just six months, according to FRSC data. By September 2025, over 7,700 crashes had claimed nearly 4,000 lives and injured 24,000 more. In 2024 alone, 5,421 people died in road accidents—a seven percent increase from the previous year.

    These are not just statistics; they are sons and daughters, fathers and mothers, friends and colleagues whose lives were cut short on highways that should have been safe.

    The causes are well-documented: speeding, brake failure, poor road conditions, lack of emergency response infrastructure, and critically, the absence of enforcement of existing safety regulations. Yet year after year, the death toll mounts while the authorities issue statements, promise investigations, and then return to business as usual.

    Nigeria suffers from what can only be described as an enforcement crisis. We have laws against speed violations, regulations requiring roadworthy vehicles, rules prohibiting parking on highways, and mandates for emergency vehicle removal. On paper, Nigeria’s road safety framework is comprehensive. In practice, it is non-existent.

    The FRSC lacks the requisite personnel, technology, and apparently the political will to enforce these regulations systematically. Corrupt officers are more interested in collecting bribes at checkpoints than ensuring compliance with safety standards. State governments build infrastructure and then abandon it to decay. Truck owners ignore designated parks because they know there are no consequences.

    Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan captured this failure perfectly when she said: “Rules without enforcement are meaningless. The Federal Road Safety Corps must be empowered and compelled to fully enforce road safety regulations across all highways in Nigeria, without fear or favour.” She is right. But empowerment alone is insufficient if there is no accountability for failure. The FRSC must be held responsible when stationary trucks turn into death traps, when speed limits are ignored with impunity, and when broken-down vehicles languish on highways for days.

    Another glaring deficiency exposed by this tragedy is Nigeria’s non-existent highway emergency response infrastructure. Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan has rightly called for the establishment of dedicated highway emergency rescue teams equipped with ambulances, trauma care facilities, and rapid response protocols.

    Currently, accident victims depend on the goodwill of passers-by and the sluggish response of under-equipped agencies. The difference between life and death often comes down to response time, yet Nigeria has no systematic emergency medical services along its major highways. Rest stations where fatigued drivers can recuperate safely are virtually absent. This is criminally negligent for a nation that claims to be Africa’s largest economy.

    The Anthony Joshua crash has garnered international attention because of the celebrity involved. President Bola Tinubu personally called to convey condolences. Governors of Lagos and Ogun states monitored the situation. The British High Commission sent a delegation. This is appropriate.

    But what of the thousands of ordinary Nigerians who die annually under similar circumstances?  Every single day, Nigerians die on these roads and their deaths are reduced to footnotes in newspaper reports. This selective concern is itself an indictment of how little value our government places on ordinary Nigerian lives.

    The time for platitudes and promises is over. Nigeria needs immediate, concrete action. President Tinubu may need to do a surgical operation on the structure, operations and management of the FRSC. The Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation is ill-prepared to supervise the agency. Road safety matters cannot be governed by political manipulations.

    Going forward, the FRSC must conduct emergency sweeps of all major highways to remove stationary vehicles and hazards. Any truck broken down for more than four hours should be towed.

    State governments must enforce regulations requiring heavy-duty vehicles to use designated parking facilities. Penalties for non-compliance must be severe and consistently applied. Specifically, the Ogun State government must immediately audit all trailer parks, determine why they are underutilized, address operational deficiencies, and ensure they serve their intended purpose.

    The FRSC must immediately deploy electronic speed monitoring across all federal highways and make speed violations costly enough to change unruly behaviours by drivers.

    The Minister of Works must be mandated to establish highway emergency teams with comprehensive coverage on major routes, equipped with ambulances and medical personnel while also embarking on regular safety assessments of all highways, identifying and removing hazards before they claim lives.

    FRSC officials must face consequences when preventable deaths occur in their jurisdictions due to enforcement failures.

    The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway has been dubbed “the corridor of death” for good reason. It is Nigeria’s busiest highway, yet it remains one of the most dangerous. This latest tragedy is not an aberration; it is the predictable result of years of institutional failure, governmental negligence, and a culture of impunity.

    Anthony Joshua’s survival should not be the end of this story. It must be the catalyst for fundamental reform. Kevin Latif Ayodele and Sina Ghami cannot be brought back, but their deaths can be given meaning if they finally force Nigeria to confront its road safety crisis with the urgency it deserves.

    The FRSC must transform from a reactive agency that counts bodies to a proactive force that prevents deaths. Ogun State must explain why taxpayer-funded trailer parks stand idle while trucks create hazards on expressways. And ultimately, the Nigerian people must demand more from their leaders than condolence messages and empty promises.

    •Kareem is a public policy analyst in Abuja.

  • Eyo festival: When Lagos turned white

    Eyo festival: When Lagos turned white

    • By Tayo Ogunbiyi

    On Saturday, December 27, 2025, history was made at the historic Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Onikan, Lagos Island, as the Lagos State government hosted the 73rd edition of the iconic Eyo Festival.

    Renowned as a sacred emblem of Lagos’ ancestry, royal heritage, and cultural identity, the festival had in attendance, distinguished personalities, including President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Lagos State governor, Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu, and Imo State governor, Hope Uzodimma, alongside other eminent personalities from across the country.

    The president described the Eyo Festival as a rekindling of Nigeria’s rich cultural heritage and a celebration of achievements, outstanding contributions, and exemplary lives of distinguished and eminent Lagosians

    Speaking at the event, Governor Sanwo-Olu reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to safeguarding Lagos’ cultural identity in alignment with the THEMES Plus development agenda, stressing that the Eyo Festival represents unity, pride, and a bridge between tradition and modernity.

    “The Eyo Festival is a powerful demonstration of our commitment to preserving Lagos’ cultural heritage. It reminds us of who we are, where we come from, and the responsibility we bear to pass our traditions on to future generations,” the governor said.

    He expressed appreciation to President Tinubu for his presence and continued support for Lagos, as well as to the Oba of Lagos, Oba Rilwan Akiolu, for approving the staging of the festival.

    The 2025 edition of the Adamu Orisa Play was particularly significant as it honoured the legacies of four eminent Lagosians whose lives and contributions have left indelible marks on the State and the nation.

    They include the late Iyaloja-General of Lagos, Chief Abibat Mogaji, revered market leader and matriarch of commerce; the first military governor of Lagos State, Brigadier-General Mobolaji Johnson; the first civilian governor of Lagos State, Lateef Jakande, and former governor of Lagos State, Michael Otedola.

    The Eyo tradition, historically staged to escort the souls of distinguished contributors to the ancestral realm, remains one of Africa’s most profound cultural expressions, symbolising purity, continuity, discipline, and communal strength.

    The peaceful conduct of the festival, marked by a massive turnout, joy, and discipline, reflected effective planning, strong inter-agency collaboration, and the collective ownership of Lagosians over their cultural heritage.

    The festival grounds came alive with a colourful procession of several Eyo Igas, led by the Special Adviser to Lagos State Governor on Tourism, Arts and Culture, Idris Aregbe. The Eyo Igas were resplendent in their traditional white robes and symbolic Opambata staff, reinforcing the spiritual and cultural essence of the ancient tradition.

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    Among the Eyo groups on display were Akintoye, Ashogbon, Aromire, Ajagun, Arobadade, Akogun Olofin, Apena, Ajanaku, Asesi, Aiyeomosan, Alaagba, Asajon, Awise, Bajulaiye, Bashua, Egbe, Elegushi, Faji, Jakande, Kosoko, Dosunmu, Olofin, Ojora, Oloto, Olumegbon, Erelu Kuti, Eletu Odibo, Oshodi Tapa, Suenu, Taiwo Olowo, Oniru, Elemoro, among others.

    Other dignitaries at the event included former Lagos State governors, Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode; former Ogun State governor, Olusegun Osoba; former deputy governor, Femi Pedro; Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Kensington Adebutu; members of the Lagos State Executive Council; captains of industry; traditional rulers, and Nigerians in the diaspora.

    The Eyo Festival remains a powerful expression of Lagos’ cultural soul and a strategic platform for positioning the state as Africa’s leading cultural and tourism destination, while fostering intergenerational pride and promoting global cultural appreciation.

    It represents a profound spiritual homecoming, deeply rooted in the ancient traditions of Isale Èkó. It serves as a living bridge between generations, where ancestral presence symbolically meets the living, and the soul of Lagos is vividly expressed.

    As Lagos was painted white once again, the Eyo Festival continues to affirm the City-State as a global cultural capital, where tradition is not merely performed but preserved, where heritage lives, breathes, and walks the streets

    The primordial origin of the Eyo or Adamuorisha play is shrouded in Lagos oral tradition and centred around Olori Olugbani, wife of Oba Ado, and her kinsmen Ejilu and Malaki, who brought Eyo from Ibefun in the Ijebu waterside and Awo Opa from Oyo respectively, to honour Olugbani on her death as a royal personage.

     It is also posited by traditional chroniclers that the deity called Adamu Orisa was initially stationed at a place called ‘Oke-Ipa’ in the vicinity of Ikoyi, from whence the traditional socio-religious objects were relocated to the Iduntafa area of Isale Eko, Lagos Island, where Ejilu looked after Egungun masquerades. Hence, Ejilu and Malaki are credited with bringing the Adimu deity to Lagos.

    History puts the date on which the Adamu Orisa play was first performed on Lagos Island as February 20, 1854, when Oba Dosumu held the passage rite in honour of his predecessor and father, Oba Akitoye.

    Before then, the Oba and Chiefs of Lagos usually went out of Lagos Island to watch the performance of the play at Oke Ipa or Okepa, one of the several farming/hunting steads in the then Ikoyi Plains.

    There is no regularity as to the periods of performances but it is manifest that performances of the Adamu-Orisa play since then have not been infrequent; Two performances took place during 1894, the first (in memory of the late Ajalegbe Aina) took place on March 20, 1894 and the Second (in honour of the late Tokosi of Lagos) took place on June 10, 1894.

    Two performances were also recorded for each year in the following two years, as well as in 1898 and 1957. Three performances each were recorded for 1899, 1903, and 1907, whilst four performances occurred during 1904 and 1909. Records show that there were six performances in 1906, the highest in a year so far in the history of the Eyo festival in Lagos.

     In 1982, a performance took place in connection with the celebrations marking 350 years of Obaship in Lagos.

    In February 1985, when the then Military Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari, was visiting Lagos State officially, a performance was locally staged in his honour at the Onikan Stadium in central Lagos.

    Furthermore, on October 12, 1985, a performance was staged as part of the funeral obsequies of the late mother of the Alaiyeluwa, the Oba of Lagos, Olori Omolara Adetola Oyekan.

     The performance staged locally on the April 11, 1987 was also unique in many ways. First, it was staged in connection with the commissioning of the public statue of the Eyo at Idumota Square, Lagos. Secondly, the performance was sponsored by the Lagos State government on the 20th anniversary of the creation of the state, and finally, it was also used to honour the late Pa Salisu Ibikunle, one-time Chief Akinshiku of Lagos.

    The last Eyo Festival was held in 2017, with subsequent editions suspended due to public health and security concerns.  As Lagos continues to position itself as a global cultural and tourism hub, the revival of the Eyo Festival underscores the city’s effort to preserve tradition while embracing its modern identity.

    • Ogunbiyi is Director, Public Enlifghtenment & Community Relations, Ministry of Information & Strategy, Alausa, Ikeja.

  • Blueprint for a Nigerian-led humanitarian system

    Blueprint for a Nigerian-led humanitarian system

    • By Kennedy Elaigwu Awodi

    I have watched, with a keen and hopeful eye, as the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction begins to chart a bold new course under the leadership of the Honourable Minister, Bernard Mohammed Doro. His tenure, though relatively new, is already defined by a strategic shift from the old, palliative model of aid to one rooted in sustainable, locally-owned systems and unflinching accountability. This is the fundamental, generational change our humanitarian and social protection space has desperately needed, and I believe we are witnessing the emergence of a true architect of hope.

    The reports from the recent high-level engagements with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA) and the Joint National Association of Persons With Disabilities (JONAPWD) are not just standard press releases; they are concrete evidence of a minister ready for what he rightly calls “the heavy lifting.”

    The meeting with UN-OCHA, led by Trond Jensen, highlights what I see as Doro’s single most important strategic victory to date: repositioning Nigeria to take full, sovereign ownership of its humanitarian destiny. The UN-OCHA’s global shift towards empowering national institutions is recognition of Nigeria’s capacity, but it takes a determined national leader to seize that opportunity. Doro didn’t just welcome this direction; he immediately aligned it with the government’s core agenda to strengthen subnational structures.

    His response—reaffirming the ministry’s determination to build a unified national framework where all partners (federal, state, NGOs, and development agencies) work seamlessly—is an antidote to the historically fragmented and often duplicative aid landscape. The announcement of the upcoming National Council on Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction is not mere bureaucracy; it is the institutional cornerstone for this new unified system.

    Furthermore, the creation of a national dashboard to harmonize activities is a masterstroke in transparency. For too long, the lack of visibility into the flow of humanitarian funds and activities has eroded public trust. By insisting that “Nigeria must know what everyone is doing,” Doro is fundamentally changing the game. This dashboard will ensure better planning, greater transparency, and most critically, measurable results that translate directly into poverty reduction.

    I find his statement, “This is a call to step up, organize ourselves better and take full ownership. We are ready for the heavy lifting,” particularly inspiring. It is a rallying cry that elevates the conversation from simply receiving aid to mastering its delivery. It signals confidence, competence, and an end to dependency—a pivotal moment in our nation’s development.

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    True compassion is not just about responding to crisis; it is about building a truly inclusive society. I was deeply heartened by Minister Doro’s engagement with the leadership of JONAPWD. The fact that the delegation described this as a “historic” formal engagement speaks volumes about the disconnect that previously existed.

     The JONAPWD leaders, in their candid discussion, laid bare the challenges: the urgent need for technical support for over 35 million Nigerians with disabilities, a lack of dedicated funding, and outdated educational curricula. A lesser minister might have offered platitudes. Doro offered partnership and actionable solutions.

     His disclosure of being in discussions with the World Bank for projects focused on inclusive education and broader disability-focused interventions shows a proactive mind-set. It’s a systemic approach that seeks to leverage global expertise and resources to dismantle the barriers highlighted by JONAPWD.

    Moreover, acknowledging funding gaps while simultaneously emphasising the need for locally driven solutions is a pragmatic step towards sustainable inclusion. The potential appointment of a technical adviser with a disability is not just symbolic; it’s an institutional commitment to embed lived experience and expertise at the heart of the ministry’s decision-making process. For me, this is what a “people-centred” government looks like—one that is willing to learn, adapt, and build capacity from within the community it serves.

     As someone observing this space, I am particularly impressed by the minister’s overall approach, which appears to be that of a focused technocrat. His participation in the Federal Executive Council (FEC) and the crucial US-Nigeria Joint Working Group at the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) demonstrates his commitment to embedding humanitarian concerns within the highest levels of national security and economic planning.

    This is not a minister operating in isolation. He is strategically linking humanitarian affairs to national security, economic policy, and international partnership, ensuring that poverty reduction is seen not as a standalone charity case, but as a critical pillar of our national security and prosperity.

     Doro’s initial achievements—institutionalising coordination through the National Council, championing transparency with the dashboard, and proactively partnering with the disability community and international bodies like UN-OCHA—all point to a leader who understands that effective compassion requires robust, modern, and accountable systems.

    The task of tackling multi-dimensional poverty and humanitarian crises in Nigeria is monumental, but in Bernard Mohammed Doro, I see a minister with the vision, strategic clarity, and political will to move us from an era of perpetual crisis management to one of resilient, locally-led, and equitable development. He is laying the foundation for a future where hope is not just a slogan, but a concrete government outcome.

    • Awodi wrote from North Carolina, USA.

  • NBA Anti-Corruption Committee’s new year message

    NBA Anti-Corruption Committee’s new year message

    By Babafemi Badejo

    As 2026 begins, the Nigerian Bar Association Anti-Corruption Committee (NBAA-CC) takes stock of our collective journey towards the realisation of integrity, accountability, and the rule of law for a good life for Nigerians. While the challenges remain formidable, the past year has reinforced our conviction that systemic change is difficult but worth striving for through relentless advocacy, institutional collaboration, and the unwavering commitment of legal professionals.

    The year witnessed significant strides in embedding anti-corruption mechanisms within our professional fabric. The landmark approval by the NBA National Executive Committee (NEC) for the establishment of branch-level anti-corruption committees stands as a pivotal achievement. This decentralised structure is not merely an administrative milestone; it is a strategic move to localise the fight, empower grassroots advocacy, and ensure that ethical vigilance permeates every tier of our association. Furthermore, the active commemoration of World Anti-Corruption Day across numerous NBA branches highlighted a growing, collective resolve to elevate public consciousness and anchor our professional conduct to the highest ethical standards.

    These foundational efforts in prevention, education, and professional mobilisation provide a robust platform for the year ahead. The committee is poised to improve its efforts towards impact-driven actions. We are advancing strategic partnerships, most notably with the Anti-Corruption Academy of Nigeria (ACAN), to leverage shared expertise and amplify our advocacy through knowledge-based programmes, sustained public enlightenment campaigns, and technical assistance initiatives. We would also engage with credible anti-corruption civil society organisations

    However, our reflections are tempered by profound concern over developments that threaten to erode public trust in our legal and anti-corruption institutions. The protracted and highly publicised corruption cases involving legal practitioners are beyond private legal problems into a critical test of Nigeria’s commitment to accountability, transparency and realisation of the rule of law. In 2025, there was the Tali Shani vs. Chief Mike Agbedor Ozekhome case that was decided outside our legal jurisdiction but threw problems in Nigeria, including forgery, identity manipulation that trivializes the relevance of our national identity data system etc.

    While the Attorney-General of the Federation’s initial announcement of a probe was a necessary first step, the ensuing silence is deafening and damaging. The absence of tangible progress, credible interim updates, or a definitive timeline for resolution contravenes the principles of transparency and accountability that underpin Nigeria’s obligations under the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC). Specifically, it undermines Articles 10, 13, and 33 of UNCAC, which mandate public sector transparency, active civil society participation, and the protection of reporting persons.

    This case exemplifies the chasm that can exist between formal compliance and effective enforcement. The NBAA-CC, in line with its mandate to promote ethical practice and support the anti-corruption framework, formally offered its technical cooperation to ensure a thorough and credible process. The lack of engagement on this offer is a missed opportunity for collaborative integrity assurance and the possibility of the restoration of public trust.

    In a recent press statement issued on the global Anti-Corruption Day, the NBAA-CC notes and agrees entirely with the recent statement on commitment to the Rule of Law as expressed by the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Honourable Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun. The Rule of Law is the most potent weapon against corruption.  However, the NBAA-CC hastened to add that the rule of law cannot be achieved with the current level of corruption in Nigeria.

    At the branch level, some progress was made at the branch levels in 2025. For example, the Idemili Branch in Anambra State is recognizing excellence and efficiency by awarding the High Court and Magistrate Court with the most dedicated registrars in its Judicial Division, encouraging best practices and discouraging corrupt behaviour. Similarly, the Kaduna and the Barnawa branches Anti-Corruption Committees are actively collaborating with national agencies such as the EFCC, NSCDC, and NDLEA, while also engaging in radio and television programs in both Hausa and English to raise public awareness and sensitize citizens on the dangers of corruption. The chairman of the Ikorodu Branch Anti-Corruption Committee has also been active on anti-corruption advocacy.

    Therefore, as we look to 2026, the committee identifies urgent priorities:

    1. Institutional Accountability: We will intensify advocacy for transparent, time-bound investigations into all corruption allegations involving legal practitioners, urging relevant agencies to provide regular public updates to rebuild eroding public confidence.

    2. Preventive Advocacy: We will deepen our focus on preventive measures, including robust ethics training for lawyers, promoting whistle-blower protection mechanisms within law firms, and advocating for stronger internal controls in professional practice.

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    3. Strategic Litigation & Policy Engagement: The committee will explore avenues for strategic interventions to support the enforcement of high-impact cases and will actively engage in policy dialogues to strengthen legal frameworks against corruption.

    4. Branch Empowerment: We will support the newly established Branch Anti-Corruption Committees as they respectively tackle corruption as frontline custodians of ethics.

    5. Leadership Accountability: We urge all lawyers to critically assess every aspirant for NBA national and branch leadership positions in the coming year on their demonstrable commitment, clear policy proposals, and personal integrity in the fight against corruption. The NBA must be led by those who embody its highest ethical ideals.

    The fight against corruption is a marathon, not a sprint. It demands from each lawyer, not merely passive compliance with rules, but active stewardship of justice. As we enter the New Year, let us embrace a renewed resolve to lead by example—in our practices, in our courts, and in our communities. The NBA Anti-Corruption Committee remains steadfast in its commitment to be a catalyst for this transformation, championing a legal culture where integrity and accountability are non-negotiable and transparency is paramount.

    Here is to a 2026 defined by courageous actions, fortified integrity, and tangible progress in the pursuit of a just society.

    Happy New Year!

    •Prof. Badejo is chairman, Nigerian Bar Association Anti-Corruption Committee.

  • Hawking, AI, and the defining questions of our time

    Hawking, AI, and the defining questions of our time

    By Tunji Olaopa

    From quite early in life, I picked up the intellectual habit of probing the intellects of great thinkers, and there are a whole tribe of them that I came into contact with right from my secondary to undergraduate and postgraduate days: Socrates, Gandhi, Plato, Einstein, Martin Luther King, Jr., Archimedes, Newton, Thomas More, Ali Mazrui, Copernicus, Leonardo da Vinci, Awolowo, Azikiwe, Ahmadu Bello, Simeon Adebo, Awojobi, Pius Okigbo, Aboyade, Mabogunje, Hawkings, Nkrumah, Martin Luther, Billy Dudley, Nelson Mandela, Claude Ake, and so on. The list is unbelievably long. And there is only one reason why these intellects appeal to me. They provide a gateway for me to explore how they have achieved their understanding of the world around us, and how possibly one could navigate life, societal dynamics and social reconstruction as reform imperative.

    Take Socrates. He was such a principled and reflective person who chose to drink the hemlock rather than capitulate to the unjust system of his time—a democratic system he criticized but which eventually found him guilty based on the mob framework he found unsalutary about democracy. Plato’s reaction to the death of his teacher is another lesson on how personal and emotional pain and sense of loss can serve as the moment for philosophical reflexivity and social engineering. This is similar to Martin Luther’s challenge to the theological foundations of Catholicism. Socrates, Thomas More, Martin Luther King Jr., Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther are distinctive because of their audacity to speak truth to power no matter the danger to lives and limbs. Or the need to rethink the fundamental basis of the human society and its multiple institutions and processes.

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    On the other side of the divide, there are the scientists and mathematicians whose fundamental objectives remain the unravelling of the laws of the universe. From Copernicus to Einstein, we have a beautiful trajectory of scientific thinking that keeps wrestling with poking behind the mathematically harmonious dynamics that Pythagoras believed constitute the basic furniture of the universe. We now know more about black holes, the theory of relativity, the theory of everything, quantum mechanics, and at least an increasing understanding of the cosmos, the spiral galaxy, the Milky Way and the quirky world of quantum physics and the subatomic universe. All thanks to the geniuses of those who are intent on knowing what the universe is made of, and how that affects and impacts human existence. What about the enormous intellectual excavation of political scientists and theorists, especially on the African continent, from Ake to Mazrui, who are daily labouring to expand our understanding of the epochal human events that have influenced our understanding of ourselves. These are the geniuses and intellects that occupy my intellectual hobby, and also define my circle of friends that includes Professor Victor Chukwuma, a professor of physics, who is not only one of my sparring partners, but would go as far as nominating me for the prestigious Award of Excellence from the Nigerian Institute of Physics in October 2015, during the Institute’s 38th Annual Conference.       

    What interests me in this piece is an engagement with Stephen Hawking’s premonitions with some of the issues that are becoming definitive in the way we understand our lives, existence and world. Hawking is one of the most scientific and philosophically deep minds of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. He was not just a thoroughgoing cosmologist and theoretical physicist, but also deeply concerned about the societal impacts and implications of unbridled scientific developments. Hawking was deeply concerned about three key issues that we can no longer gloss over as we manoeuvre our world. He was worried about the fate of humanity in a world that is increasingly going askew. He once asked a most fundamental question: “In a world that is in chaos politically, socially and environmentally, how can the human race sustain another 100 years?” That is a question all keen observers of the world we live in can relate with, a question that is all the more perplexing because, even for Hawking, there is no answer in sight.

    That question turns on several possibilities that might transform the world in most terrible ways. Take Hawking’s unease about the possibility of an alien invasion. Their attempt to pillage the earth, for him, would have a similar outcome that Christopher Columbus’ landing in America had—annihilation of the Native Indians. There is also the risk of nuclear war, global warming and climate change. From far away space, any contingent meteor or asteroid could slam into earth! Aside climate change, by far the most immediate and terrifying issue humans are confronted with at the moment is the dizzyingly perplexing of artificial intelligence (AI). Stephen Hawking was so concerned that in 2015, alongside more than 1000 other experts and researchers, especially in robotics and artificial intelligence, wrote an open letter presented at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Argentina. It was borne out of a collective concern about the possibility of AI—and especially the dangers inherent in “a military artificial intelligence arms race”—being humanity’s “biggest existential threat” and the possibility of translating into “the end of the human race.”      

    These concerns enable us to highlight fundamental philosophical issues that intersect humanity and AI. The emergence of AI, and the very possibility of the arrival of a super intelligent AI, has raised serious existential and ethical questions that bother on the obsolescence of humanity. And this is because the machines are increasingly taking over almost every sphere of human activities and uniqueness. Human dominance especially in the workplace is increasingly being challenged as new robotics and intelligent machines keep rolling out to take over hitherto daunting tasks and roles that humans use to be the best at. This threatens a loss of control and extreme economic anxiety arising from the displacement of humans from their means of livelihood. Machines have the capacities to do these works cleanly, efficiently and with triple outputs than what humans can ever hope to achieve. This has several ethical and existential implications. Two are most fundamental. The first is the possibility of AI reproducing the biases and prejudices that have consistently thrown the world out of joint. The second has to do with how AI reproduces the rampant inequality that comes from the deployment of machines and robotics by the wealthy capitalists across the world.

    This gloomy picture should not prevent us from the most plausible benefits that AI has already introduced into our world. The surest is the collaborative framework that enables humans to get things done faster, optimally and efficiently. In this sense, AI becomes a crucial augmentation of human cognitive capacities. In other words, with AI deployed in the most technical dimensions of human functioning, we can then have sufficient time to pursue more noble assignments and objectives. Collaborating with AI introduces excitingly new paradigms of decision-making in so many spheres of life, from public administration to scholarship and the academics. The challenge is that of embedding human values into AI in ways that speaks to our search for genuinely universal and non-exclusionary valuational frameworks that transcends those that have taken us to countless wars.      

    The significance of all the above, as I see it, has to do with how AI is challenging humans to rethink what it means to be human in the Age of AI. It concerns how AI has radically compromised our self-image of who we truly are as humans. Before the emergence and operation of AI, the human world and activities are roundly embedded within a philosophical framework of humanism—humans constitute the centre of the world, and the sole arbiters of its affairs. Now, our vaunted humanistic complacence has become endangered. The dimension of AI that is causing the most existential bafflement and fright is the rate at which AI is cancelling what we consider uniquely human, especially in terms of consciousness, intelligence and personhood. When philosophers ask about who a person is, or what personhood consists of, the terms of the discourse have usually been restricted to the context of undeniably humans. However, given the capacity of AI to advance optimally the essence of what it means to be humans—consciousness and intelligence, for example—that debate has to be restructured and reimagined. And there is no other way to restructure it that will not affect our conception of human identity and future. The distinct boundary we have erected between the natural and the artificial or between consciousness and computation no longer seem tenable.

    Does artificial intelligence qualify as a person? This is one of the most fundamental questions of the twenty-first century. And it is one that we cannot get any easy answers to. And this is because the question is infused by all sorts of theological and existential traps and biases that are the remnants of our humanistic understanding of who humans are, how we got into the world, what our future is, and what we have the capabilities of achieving. Thrown in the place and role of God in human affairs, and you get the sense of how complicated the question becomes. But this does not still take away the unrelenting march of AI in human dynamics. Stephen Hawking was extremely troubled by the possibility of a race of super-humans—super-intelligent machines—evolving with the capacity to determine their own objectives, and even possibly undermining our own future if it contradict theirs. And for him, the onus of responsibility lies with humans and our capacity to avoid the risks involved.

    Leaving the fate of humans to humans seems dangerous given that we created the atomic bomb, countless wars, the Holocaust and several genocides. We have created religious fundamentalism and pandemics. However, we have also created the most sublime inventions and policies that keep pulling us back from chaos. Maybe, as Hawking hoped, we are still on time to pull ourselves back from the impending precipice.   

    •Olaopa, a professor of Public Administration is chairman Federal Civil Service Commission, Abuja.

  • Plight of Nigerian diplomatic staff posted abroad

    Plight of Nigerian diplomatic staff posted abroad

    • By Idang Alibi

    It is a good thing that the executive branch and the National Assembly have finally put in place the top echelon of our diplomatic corps as President Ahmed Bola Tinubu recently submitted the full list of career and non-career ambassadors and their subsequent clearance by legislative branch.

    With the conclusion of the process, our country will be able to handle many of her diplomatic challenges which turn to prop up every now and then. The latest is the military collabo between the USA and Nigeria to deal with ISIS and the other terrorists’ threat in some parts of our country.

    However, while the process is being finalised, this reporter wishes to draw the attention of the relevant authorities to some of the murmurings, grumbling and complaining of a key portion of the middle level foreign affairs officers who are currently posted abroad. The aim of this to get the relevant authorities concerned to do what is necessary to urgently address the genuine plight of the above-mentioned officers so that their being on postings abroad will not be just in name but in the actual work they are expected to do on behalf of the country for its goodness and greatness.

    The first major trouble the diplomats have is with their salaries.  At present, all is not well at all financially with some, if not all, members of the foreign service staff as a result of which some, if not all of them, owe their landlords up to 8-12 months’ rent. These officers are in this embarrassing state of affairs because they have not been paid their salaries for the past six months. Surely, this is not good enough. Whether here at home or over there abroad, it is not pleasant to owe landlords rents. When that happens, relationship between the two parties becomes soured with the foreign tenants suffering the greater pain. None of them will have the necessary peace of mind to live their lives and carry out even their routine functions. And landlords are the same all over the world. To put it diplomatically, some of them are not gentlemen.

     In most cases, they seem to be mean, desperate and unforgiving individuals or corporate entities who build houses as a way to earn a decent income or something to supplement their earnings from some other sources. And if it is very unpleasant to owe a landlord at home here his rents, it is more unpleasant to do so abroad especially when you are a diplomat, a person sent purposely to create a good image for your country. That will be a contradiction in purpose and action. I think that it is mightily better not to send a diplomat to live abroad in another man’s country at all than send him in a manner or state that he is likely to ultimately bring shame and reproach not only to himself but to his country as well.

    Apart from the difficulty in paying rents, another issue which the diplomats contend with over there is fulfilling their other socio-economic responsibilities. It needs no stating to say that a person who owes his landlord will also be likely to be unable to take proper care of the education of his children or dependents even in countries where education is virtually free. The issue of education is even more humiliating and destructive of progress than the shame of inability to pay rents.

    As if all these stated deficiencies are not enough, the career foreign service staff in particular also suffer deprivation from a particular policy of government which they have no control over but which has created in them an intense jealousy and loss of morale. During the Muhammadu Buhari days, the federal government approved the monetization policy for the foreign service personnel.  Unfortunately for the career foreign affairs officers who are the core staff in the diplomatic work, they do not enjoy the monetization benefits while the Finance Attaches and the Immigration Attaches who are considered support staff, do enjoy those benefits.

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    The diplomatic officers are human. Their jealousy is not founded on, or rooted in, a bitter, hateful and unreasonable ground. Rather, it arises from the human reasoning that it is unfair and unjust that they, for whatever reasons, are not or cannot, enjoy what their colleagues who are supposed to be support officers enjoy. Whatever is the reason or logic behind this particular reality/anomaly, those concerned should think quickly about what right and fair thing to do, and very urgently too, to ensure fairness and equity among all staff members.

    Another grievance of the diplomatic service staff posted abroad is that some of them have been waiting for over a year now without their families joining them and the reason is that the government has not released the flight allowances for their separated family members to undertake the trip of re-joining their spouses or family heads. This forced separation, so to say, causes not a little hardship and emotional pain for both parties involved and need to be addressed as soon as possible in order to boost the morale of those who are abroad to fight our many diplomatic fights for us and emotional stability to those left behind who have endured the pain.

    What some of the key figures in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs comfortably seated at home here do not know is that when some of the career foreign affairs officers on posting abroad did when they realized that the flight allowances will not be released in time for them to take every member of their household with them abroad was that they borrowed huge sums of money to ensure that their spouses and dependents go along with them. Those monies borrowed are attracting huge interest which keeps growing by the day so long as the principal is not repaid.

    Whatever needs to be done now must include an emphasis on equal and fair treatment of all officers abroad. You cannot have a group of officers facing the same or similar challenges together abroad while policies are made which benefit others while others are deprived.  It is not good enough. Let no one be made to regret that he or she was not a Finance Attaché or an Immigration Officer on posting abroad. Any one charged with the responsibility of correcting these anomalies should act swiftly to ensure that all Nigerians on diplomatic posting abroad enjoy a fair and equitable benefit of full diplomatic service.

    In the eyes of many Nigerians, the Tinubu government is an offshoot of the Buhari government before it. Measures should, therefore, be taken urgently to implement the approved funding policy of the foreign missions done by President Buhari.

    As far as I am concerned, what the Nigerian government has done or fails to do to our diplomatic missions abroad and the officers who man those missions is a thing of great disgrace. This problem did not start yesterday. It has been so since when our country started witnessing the weak hands of administrators in the administration of our affairs. Ultimately, the poor treatment brings harm to those on posting abroad. But the greater harm comes on the image of our potentially great country. Something ought to be done to correct things. We have had enough of these problems.

    •Alibi a journalist lives as in Abuja.