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Deepening Nigeria’s democracy
- By Ike Willie-Nwobu
Nigeria’s June 12 celebration of its democracy day is itself a historical thumbs-up to the distance the country has covered in the past two decades. June 12, 1993, was the day Nigeria held an election deemed free and fair amidst a repressive military regime, which turned out to be a cruel charade that ushered in a more brutal military regime. The winner of that election, M.K.O Abiola, which was annulled, died in custody just a year before Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999.

If history holds lessons for Nigeria’s democracy, it is one of resilience and rootedness found in the will of the Nigerian people and repeatedly dipped in blood over the years.

Twenty five years later after its epochal return, Nigeria’s democracy is all cause for celebration especially with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in power. The president may be flawed, like every other person and president. His presidency may be as imperfect as the country and humanity that sustain it, but the small steps made so far show a man who knows the stringent demands of democracy and is prepared to walk its painful path.

President Tinubu’s readiness to embrace the sacrifices that democracy demands departs from the misadventures of his predecessor who preferred a militarized kind of democracy marked by understated autocracy and insularity. The clear difference between the two governments can be explained by the different backgrounds of the two men in charge. One, a former military coup plotter, the other a democrat at heart who once found the courage to go on exile to court the democracy he believed in. It also has something to do with courage and counsel.

Where Muhammadu Buhari preferred to surround himself with leaders from the North, giving their parochial views the gravitas of law, President Tinubu has shown the kind of openness that democracy is so fond of. This key difference in personality and politics has reflected in appointments made so far. While Muhammadu Buhari deemed only people of his ethnic and religious stock fit enough for key security and government positions, mostly ignoring people from the Southeast, President Tinubu has been willing to deal every section of the country a fairer hand.

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This inclusive approach has been key to tackling the insecurity that reduced the country to such chaos between 2015 and 2023. It has also taken a lot of sting out of secessionist agitations within the country. There is a distinct feeling that he will do more the longer he stays in office. The president’s approach is the balm that democracy offers, the elixir to the divisions that are inevitable in the coming together of many disparate parts.

Like mathematics, democracy is about numbers and power. For democracy to operate smoothly, the majority as well as the minority must have access to clear and uncluttered space at the table. While power must remain with the people being the majority, democracy is often fair enough to include the minority whose feeling of exclusion can lead to dangerous levels of animosity and hostility.

In a country where democracy has not always reflected diversity, reducing political appointments to ethnic or sectarian affairs is a recipe for the kind of disaster that was the Muhammadu Buhari presidency. In electing Tinubu who went into exile in the days when Nigerians fought to restore democracy, Nigerians went for someone who had made sacrifices for the country and democracy, someone who knew and loved democracy enough to fight and flee for it.

The 2023 elections may have been flawed the way Nigeria’s democracy has remained deeply flawed since 1999. But something is cooking, and has been cooking for twenty-five unbroken years. In a continent brimming with dictators and their pseudo democracy, it is no mean feat for a country of Nigeria’s size and challenges to have emerged from thirteen years of military rule to sustain democracy for more than two decades.

Slowly, Nigeria, surrounded by poor, landlocked crisis-ridden countries, has become a beacon of democracy. The military who have seized power in Mali, Guinea, Niger, Burkina Faso and Gabon as well as elsewhere in Africa know that Nigeria’s model repudiates as well as rebukes them for truncating democracy in their countries. President Tinubu showed as much in strongly reprimanding the coup plotters in Niger Republic shortly after he assumed office.

Nigeria remains a deeply divided country with many people waiting for the slightest opportunity to flash their ethnic and religious cards. It is also a country of many dictators and potential dictators many of whom have been sworn in as state governors. But with each day that passes, democracy makes a giant stride, increasing the distance between the country and the days when the military caused the country to bleed nonstop. This is worth celebrating, especially because stability comes from consistency and continuity and Nigeria’s democracy continues.

Democracy means freedom beginning from free speech, which is the fulcrum of all other freedoms. It means the freedom to vote and be voted for, it means freedom under the law. What democracy means is indescribable, and Nigerians must guard against the darkness that imperils what is invaluable precisely because it is indescribable.

Nigerians must agree to work together to sustain their democracy. It is beyond President Tinubu who is only a temporary totem of the transience of power tethered to Aso Rock. It is also beyond any ethnic or religious group. Sustaining Nigeria’s democracy is a fight for the present but especially for the future.

Nigerians must eschew a return to the past, especially for the sake of those fixed in the country’s future. For Nigerians to remain free of the cage that dictatorship is, vigilance is key.

•Willie-Nwobu writes via Ikewilly9@gmail.com
June 14, 2024
Akpabio: One year of Senate leadership

By Anietie Ekong

On his inauguration on June 13, 2023 as the President of the 10th Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio had left no one in doubt that the 10th Assembly would work to promote the interest and wellbeing of the Nigerian people. He affirmed that his leadership shall be inclusive, that his shall be a servant-leadership and uncommon.

In his inaugural speech, Senator Akpabio had boldly declared: “On my part, Distinguished Senators, I affirm that this leadership shall be yours. It shall be a servant-leadership; it shall be an uncommon leadership. To the Nigerian people, I say this: your dreams, your aspirations and your wellbeing will be at the heart of everything we will do in this Senate.

“It is time now to go forward with the task set before us as a collective body – the promulgation of laws and enactments for the wellbeing and security of the country and as a check on the executive arm of the government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in our oversight functions. Together, we shall reach and surpass the expectations of the Nigerian people regarding us, and our roles in building a better, safer, more inclusive, prosperous, efficient and ethical country,” he said.

Indeed in the last one year, the Senate under the leadership of Senator Godswill Akpabio has demonstrated an uncommon zeal towards aligning with the goals and aspirations of the Nigerian people and has worked hard through motions, bills and resolutions in promoting the interest and welfare of the common people. The 10th Senate has been unwavering in its commitment to discharging its statutory roles of legislation, representation and oversight for the benefit of the Nigerian people. Under the leadership of Senator Akpabio, the 10th Senate has recorded commendable achievements that have contributed to the consolidation of Nigeria’s democratic process, and which calls for celebration.

It is noteworthy that the election of the leadership of the 10th Assembly attracted nationwide interest. The campaigns were no less intense as the aspirants traversed the length and breadth of the country to solicit for support for their candidacy from traditional rulers to elder statesmen, from socio-political organizations to even religious leaders. It was as if the nation was going into another general election. The country was on edge simply for the election of the presiding officers of the legislature which had not drawn much interest from the general populace before then.

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However with the support of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Senator Akpabio and Senator Barau Jubrin were elected the president and deputy president of the Senate respectively. The senators seem to have put their political differences behind and have forged ahead with an agenda to promote legislation that would bring succour to the Nigerian people.

There is a general consensus among the senators across political divides that Senator Akpabio is a leader who listens to the voices of his colleagues and one who values their input, opinions and concerns to foster an atmosphere of inclusivity and collaboration. The senate’s unity behind Senator Akpabio reinforces the notion that he commands the respect and support of his fellow senators. A united Senate, working together towards a common goal, is crucial in achieving legislative objectives that benefit the Nigerian people.

In identifying with the Nigerian people, the 10th Senate has devoted more time through bills and motions to what matters most to the Nigerian people: security and the economy. It is not a secret that Nigerians have faced tough times with the removal of fuel subsidy by the Tinubu administration. Even the president admits as much. The October Cadre Harmonise Analysis on food insecurity had projected that in 2024, Nigeria was expected to see about 26.5 million people grappling with high levels of food insecurity. But the government has worked very hard to cushion the effect of the subsidy removal and provide some succour to the Nigerian people.

To ameliorate the hardship that Nigerians have faced, the senate had taken several measures to bring some relief to the citizenry. The legislature has had several interfaces with the economic team of the federal government to tackle the country’s poor economy, hunger, and depreciation of the value of the Naira. Part of the measures that the senate has adopted is the motion that urged the federal government to introduce food stamps as an interim measure to address food insecurity in the country.

Food stamps are a supplemental nutrition assistance programme that provides food purchasing assistance for low and no-income people to help them maintain adequate nutrition and health. This measure is aimed at cushioning the resultant hardships and sufferings on the poor. Speaking on the motion which was proposed by the Chief Whip, Senator Ali Ndume, the Deputy Senate President, Senator Jibrin Barau said, “The senate is open in acting on issues that will help all Nigerians. So the entire senate commends Ndume for this motion.”

Closely linked with economic issues that the nation has faced, is the issue of insecurity across the country. As a responsive Assembly, the 10th Senate has not shied away from taking measures that can help improve the security situation in the country. It is generally accepted that insecurity in the country has affected food production as farmers can hardly access their farms for fear of being kidnapped or murdered. And the senate has been greatly concerned about this.

The senate under the leadership of Senator Akpabio has had several engagements with security chiefs to stem the tide of insecurity across the country. Hardly any week passes without the issue of bringing improved security to the country would not dominate the order paper of the Senate plenary. The lawmakers have often expressed concern over the growing spate of killings, kidnapping and ransom payments, banditry, and other forms of criminality throughout the country.

It is generally believed that insecurity is closely linked with illiteracy, unemployment, porous borders, proliferation of the country with small arms and light weapons, poor tactics in intelligence gathering, and non-compliance with the rule of law. This is why the senate has often called on the federal government to re-engineer the country’s security architecture to make it more responsive.

Due to the yearning of Nigerians, the senate has also been in the forefront of the advocacy for the establishment of the state police. According to Senator Akpabio, “We have a responsibility to collaborate with the executive and contribute our ideas to ensure that our constituents and ourselves, including our children, can sleep with their two eyes closed. Security is everybody’s business, and without security, we cannot have progress. We are determined to make laws and pass resolutions aimed at ensuring rapid progress of the country and the immediate improvement of the Nigerian economy. This will not be possible without a secured nation.”

Just like many other Nigerians have felt, the poor state of roads in Nigeria has also been of concern to the 10th Senate. The outcome was the setting up of “an ad-hoc committee to come up with a compendium of all the affected federal roads and erosion sites across the country either awarded but abandoned by contractors or have not been awarded at all, to be forwarded to the executive arm for urgent intervention.” The committee travelled across the length and breadth of the country and it is expected that their findings and recommendations will lead to improve road network across the country.

It is expected that with the support of his colleagues, the strength of his collaborative relationship with President Tinubu, and his avowed commitment to national development, Nigerians eagerly anticipate further positive impacts the 10thSenate will make in shaping the nation’s future.

•Ekong, is Special Assistant (Media/Communication) to the President of the Senate.

June 13, 2024
A case for synergy in protection of critical national assets and infrastructure
- By Lere Ojedokun
A secure environment is essential for political, economic and social activities to flourish in every society. It enables the government to focus on formulation of policies that can stimulate economic growth, provision of basic amenities for the citizens, and building essential infrastructure that can drive national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

Businesses and investors (local and foreign) are more likely to invest in an economy where their operations, assets and operations are protected from crimes such as theft and vandalism, terrorism, and other security threats.

Reasons include the fact that an effective and efficient security system will reduce the cost burden on the government and businesses, allowing for more funds to be directed towards product research, development projects and economic growth initiatives.

With the rising global security threats occasioned in part by the advancement in technology and increasing activities of terrorists and other non-state actors, defence and security receive huge votes in annual government budgets in many countries, including Nigeria.

In Nigeria, the protection of essential physical and virtual Critical National Assets and Infrastructure (CNAI) consisting of systems, assets, and networks are prioritised by the federal, state and local governments because they have direct and indirect impact on our daily lives. These include roads, airports, seaports, railways, electricity grids, transformers, transmission cables, oil and gas pipelines, water supply facilities, schools, hospitals, government buildings, courts, national defence and security institutions, custodial facilities, and international travel passports, among others.

Equally pivotal for Nigeria’s security and socio-economic growth are the essential physical and virtual telecommunication infrastructure that drives our nation’s functioning communication, security, and general well-being of Nigerians and foreigners resident in the country. The physical infrastructure includes telecom towers, fibre optic cables, and power generators at cell sites. The virtual infrastructure such as digital networks, information systems, and data repositories underpin crucial operations such as telecommunications, financial transactions, emergency response coordination, and national defence, and internal security.

Theft, vandalism and destruction of telecom’s physical and virtual assets ranked among the nagging challenges faced by telecom operators and infrastructure companies in Nigeria. With Information and Communication Technology (ICT), of which telecom is a significant driver, contributing 16.66% to Nigeria’s real GDP in Q4 2023 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the protection of telecom infrastructure and assets cannot be overemphasised.

The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) is the lead federal government security outfit with a mandate to protect and safeguard Critical National Assets and Infrastructure across the country. Commandant General of the NSCDC, Ahmed Abubakar Audi, recently reaffirmed that any act of destruction or vandalism of our CNAI would have debilitating effects on the national economy.

Thus, recently, IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, took a bold step by donating ICT equipment to NSCDC during a visit to the agency’s headquarters in Abuja.

The gesture, according to IHS Nigeria’s Associate Director, Government Relations, Fatima Ibrahim-Haruna, was to enable the security agency to scale-up effectiveness and efficiency in its operations by leveraging technology to adequately tackle insecurity challenges and threats in the country. While commending NSCDC for its efforts at protecting the nation’s CNAI, she added that the donation of the ICT equipment underscored the commitment of IHS Towers to promoting the wellbeing of people and communities, in line with the core pillars of the company’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).

Ibrahim-Haruna noted that IHS Towers owns over 16,000 towers across Nigeria and pledged the company’s continued collaboration and partnership with NSCDC, as well as other strategic institutions to foster a sustainable future for Nigeria. She added that IHS Nigeria would further support the agency by upgrading its ICT Centre.

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“Telecom infrastructure is integral to national security by supporting communication for defence operations and intelligence activities, financial institutions, healthcare, education, aviation, commerce and many other sectors that rely heavily on telecommunications for their daily operations. Disruptions in telecom operations can lead to significant economic losses, affecting productivity and growth. Ensuring security and protection of telecom infrastructure helps prevent espionage, cyber-attacks, and other security threats that can undermine national security and economic stability,’’ she stated.

The NSCDC Commandant General, Audi, commended IHS Nigeria for the ICT equipment and reiterated the unwavering commitment of the security outfit to ensuring adequate safety of lives and protection of critical national assets and infrastructure in the country.

“Maintaining law and order, and most importantly safeguarding all critical national assets and infrastructure in the nation is a core mandate to which NSCDC is irrevocably committed, as the lead agency in this regard,’’ he affirmed, while restating that critical assets and infrastructure were pivotal for national security, economic growth and social order.

Audi added: “It is against this backdrop that NSCDC has mapped out different strategies to nip in the bud all activities of economic saboteurs vandalising government properties and critical national assets and infrastructure. As a lead agency in the protection of CNAI as contained in the National Security Document, we remain resolute, and call on other critical stakeholders and security agencies to collaborate with NSCDC for maximum protection of CNAI.’’

Telecom infrastructure is essential for fostering innovation and technological advancements. Telecom infrastructure provides the backbone for emerging technologies like IoT, AI and 5G, which drive economic development through creating new opportunities for individuals, businesses and countries. Critical services such as national security and intelligence, law enforcement, emergency response, healthcare, education, financial transactions, among others depend on reliable telecommunications. Therefore, protecting telecom infrastructure like other critical national assets and infrastructure will ensure these services are made available without disruptions and the economy will be the best beneficiary if this can happen.

•Ojedokun, a brand strategist and development expert writes from Lagos.
June 12, 2024
Navigating the minimum wage debate for prosperity and social equity

In Nigeria, the debate over the appropriate minimum wage for workers has been a long-standing and complex issue. As the country grapples with economic challenges, regional disparities, and the need for social justice, finding a balance between fair compensation for workers and economic sustainability has become a pressing concern. This discussion has raised questions about the impact of increasing the minimum wage, the role of government in supporting workers, and the need for accountability and transparency in policymaking. In this context, both workers and the government need to explore innovative solutions and collaborative approaches to address these challenges and promote economic development for all citizens.

The debate around the appropriate minimum wage for Nigeria’s workers is a complex and contentious issue that has been ongoing for many years. On one hand, some argue that a higher minimum wage is necessary to provide workers with a decent standard of living and to reduce poverty. They argue that a higher minimum wage will stimulate consumer spending, boost demand for goods and services, and ultimately strengthen economic development.

On the other hand, some argue that a higher minimum wage could have negative effects on businesses, leading to job losses, reduced hours, and increased prices for consumers. They argue that a higher minimum wage could also lead to increased inflation, which could further harm the economy.

In the context of democracy, a higher minimum wage is seen as a way to promote social justice and reduce income inequality, which are important pillars of a democratic society. By ensuring that workers are paid a fair wage for their work, a higher minimum wage can help to ensure that all citizens have the opportunity to participate fully in the economic and social life of the country.

Ultimately, the appropriate minimum wage for workers is a balancing act between the need to provide workers with a decent standard of living and the need to ensure that businesses can remain competitive and create jobs. It is important that all stakeholders, including government, employers, and workers, come together to find a solution that works for everyone and promotes economic development and democracy.

Let’s excavate! As Nigeria grapples with the pressing issue of determining an appropriate minimum wage, whether it be N60,000, N62,000, or a higher amount, it is vital to consider the implications for both workers and the government. The imperative for striking a balance between economic viability and social equity has sparked intense debate and scrutiny. In this context, it is crucial to delve into the underlying factors and potential solutions that can ensure a fair and sustainable wage structure for all stakeholders involved.

It is difficult to determine a specific amount that would be appropriate as the minimum wage for Nigeria’s workers, as it depends on various factors such as the cost of living, productivity levels, and economic conditions. However, considering the current economic situation in Nigeria, a minimum wage of N60,000 or N62,000 could be considered appropriate for several reasons.

Firstly, the current minimum wage in Nigeria is N30,000, which is one of the lowest in Africa. Increasing the minimum wage to N60,000 or N62,000 would help to address the issue of low wages and provide workers with a more decent standard of living. This would also help to reduce poverty and inequality, which are key challenges facing the country.

Secondly, a higher minimum wage would stimulate consumer spending, as workers would have more disposable income to spend on goods and services. This would in turn boost demand for products, leading to increased production and economic growth.

Additionally, a higher minimum wage would contribute to social justice and promote democracy by ensuring that workers are fairly compensated for their work. This would help to enhance the overall well-being of workers, improve their quality of life, and empower them to participate more fully in the economic and social life of the country.

However, it is important to consider the potential impact of a higher minimum wage on businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises. Adequate measures should be put in place to support businesses in adjusting to the increase in labour costs, such as providing tax incentives or subsidies.

Surmising, while a minimum wage of N60,000 or N62,000 could be considered appropriate at this time to improve the standard of living for Nigerian workers, further analysis and stakeholder consultations are necessary to determine the most suitable and sustainable minimum wage level for the country.

However, the prospect of raising the minimum wage to N90,000, N100,000, or even higher figures brings to the fore a crucial question: are there any inherent risks or dangers in such a significant increase? While a higher minimum wage may appear to be a solution to addressing income inequality and improving living standards, the potential consequences must be carefully considered. The potential impact on inflation, job creation, and overall economic stability cannot be overlooked. Furthermore, the sustainability of such a substantial increase and its long-term effects on the economy requires thorough analysis and foresight. It is essential to weigh the benefits against the potential drawbacks of a drastic wage hike to ensure a balanced and realistic approach to wage policy in Nigeria.

Functionally, while increasing the minimum wage to N90,000, N100,000, or even higher may seem beneficial in terms of providing workers with higher incomes, some potential dangers and challenges need to be considered. Some of these potential risks include:

Inflation: A sudden and significant increase in the minimum wage could lead to inflationary pressures, as businesses may pass on the higher labour costs to consumers through price hikes. This could erode the purchasing power of consumers and negate the intended benefits of the wage increase.

Unemployment: Higher minimum wages could lead to job losses, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises that may struggle to absorb the increased labour costs. This could result in higher unemployment rates, particularly among low-skilled workers who are most likely to be affected by minimum wage increases.

Informal Economy: A drastic increase in the minimum wage could incentivize more businesses to operate in the informal economy to avoid complying with labour regulations. This could undermine efforts to formalize the economy and ensure decent working conditions for all workers.

Business Viability: Small businesses, in particular, may struggle to remain viable if they are forced to pay significantly higher minimum wages. This could lead to closures, reduced investment, and a slowdown in economic growth.

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Regional Disparities: A uniform minimum wage increase across the country may not take into account regional differences in economic conditions and cost of living. It could exacerbate disparities between regions and hinder economic development in less affluent areas.

The question then arises: Are there any analytical recommendations in light of issues, thought processes, and solutions to this prevailing matter for both the workers and government? This must entail all political appointees also cutting down on their excessive and above-the-board living style so that they allow their citizens to experience economic prosperity and enjoy the dividends of democracy at this time.

In light of the challenges, the following recommendations and solutions could be considered by both workers and the government:

Phased and Incremental Increases: Instead of a sudden and drastic increase in the minimum wage, a phased and incremental approach could be adopted. This would allow businesses to adjust gradually to higher labour costs and mitigate the risks of inflation and job losses.

Regional Wage Disparities: Consideration should be given to regional differences in economic conditions and cost of living when setting minimum wage levels. This could help address disparities between regions and ensure that workers are adequately compensated based on local conditions.

Support for Small Businesses: The government could provide support and incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises to help them cope with higher labour costs. This could include tax breaks, access to credit, and skills training programs to improve productivity and competitiveness.

Social Safety Nets: To protect vulnerable workers and mitigate the impact of job losses, social safety nets such as unemployment benefits and job training programs could be expanded. This would help workers transition to new employment opportunities and support those most affected by minimum wage increases.

Transparency and Accountability: Both workers and the government should advocate for transparency and accountability in the implementation of minimum wage policies. This includes ensuring that minimum wage laws are enforced, monitoring compliance by businesses, and holding policymakers accountable for their decisions.

Tackle Corruption and Excessive Spending: Addressing corruption and reducing excessive spending by political appointees could free up resources that could be redirected towards supporting workers and promoting economic development. This would require political will, institutional reforms, and effective anti-corruption measures.

Dialogue and Collaboration: Workers, government officials, employers, and other stakeholders should engage in constructive dialogue and collaboration to find common solutions to the challenges surrounding the minimum wage. This could involve labour unions, business associations, civil society organizations, and policymakers working together to address concerns and finding sustainable solutions.

June 12, 2024
Why the national grid continues to collapse
- By Joshua Hassan
The continued collapse of the national grid is a result of a weak and antiquated transmission network and insufficient evacuation of power from power generation plants. Extensive study of Nigeria’s power challenges have located the nation’s power challenges in three major areas – sustained use of out-of-date conductors deployed since the colonial days; very old technology, and lack of transparency and competition in Transmission Company of Nigeria Limited (TCN’s) conductor procurement process.

Conductors are an essential part of TCN’s network which evacuates electricity from power generation plants and transmit it to the network of regional distribution companies.

TCN, in its move to drastically reduce its transmission line failure and cut the line loss (i.e. electricity loss during transmission through its network), had adopted strategies which include replacing old and inefficient transformers with new ones, re-conducting some lines with high capacity/low loss composite carbon core conductors and replacement of capacitors and reactors at needed locations.

Industry watchers say that re-conductoring is the best way to address the antiquated network issue not only because of the high cost of constructing new lines but also the very difficult task of obtaining the Right Of Way which is also very expensive.

There are many advanced conductor manufacturers in the US, Europe, and Japan that produce high capacity/low loss composite core conductors, offering competitive and innovative products to address power grid limitation and line loss issues.

The issue is that TCN has only adopted one brand of composite carbon core conductors, among many high capacity/low loss composite conductors available in the market.

There are many similar and newer competitive conductors available worldwide. By specifying only one during its procurement process, TCN effectively has failed to allow any other competitive composite carbon core conductor products to enter its network. The non-competitive process also affects TCN internetwork partners such as FGN power and regional distribution companies.

The most recent TCN Performance Improvement Plan Order 035, available on Nigeria Electricity Regularity Commission website, in its Annex section, lists ACCC conductors as the only conductors of choice for all the reconductoring projects with all the regional distribution companies including Ikeja, Abuja and Kano regions.

Partial failure of the national grid is the direct result of TCN not opening its procurement process to the competitive high-capacity low loss conductors on the market. The preferred conductor, with their naked fibre carbon cores, easily breaks and their installation requires special equipment, tools, and especially trained linemen. TCN is not able to store the conductors as spares since, given local weather conditions, the conductors deteriorate quickly and become oxidated and brittle, breaking up easily. TCN transmission lines with those conductors, once broken, become irreparable, thus leading to the grid’s collapse. Many of the transmission lines broken in TCN network have remained out of service for over many years during which no repairs could be carried out due to lack of spares.

In the public bidding documents issued by TCN World Bank Project Management Unit for NTP-TR5E and TR5G, in volume2 section 7.1.1, regarding the storage of ACCC® conductors, it states that:

“Conductor reels should be stored on a hard surface in a covered area away from chemicals, high heat and standing water. Reels should be stored in an upright position with a protective covering.”

It is simply impractical for Nigeria to use ACCC conductors which cannot be stored in the local weather environment.

In the same bidding documents from TCN for World Bank funded NTP-TR5E and TR5F, in volume 2 section 7.1.5, regarding the conductor installation, it states that: “Adequate care shall be taken at all times to ensure the conductor is installed in a safe manner. Installation tools and equipment shall comply with the manufacturer’s guidelines. Conductor installation should at all times adhere to the manufacturer’s ACCC Installation Guidelines.

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“All installation crews must undergo training by manufacturer’s designated Master Installer prior to commencement of installation work. Whenever a new crew is introduced to the project, the new crew must undergo training by the manufacturer’s designated Master Installer prior to commencing installation. Should the team leader of a crew be changed, the new team leader must undergo training by the manufacturer’s designated Master Installer prior to taking charge of the team.”

This means that only the tools and equipment complying with and customized to ACCC standards could be used, and only the linemen trained and certified by ACCC could participate in the installation process. Most experienced linemen within TCN or in the local market will not be able to participate in the reconductoring jobs without ACCC’s signature of approval. This puts TCN in a major cost disadvantage due to lack of competition.

Since 2012, TCN has signed multiple contracts with ACCC manufacturers and paid for variously sized ACCC conductors for its projects. However, due to lack of the required skills and resources for installation available in Nigeria, the conductors shipped to TCN sites have been left unused and wasted, and the installation portion of the contracts have been left unfinished while the network is still in shambles. Such is the case for Onitsha-New Haven 330kV contract awarded over 10 years ago.

All the conductors procured by TCN have not added any value to the system either because TCN contractors have been unable to install them, or they are already degraded where they were stored.

The TCN has over the years been enmeshed in the controversy over the upgrade of the traditional Aluminium Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSRs) types to high capacity/low loss conductors such as ACCC. The latest scandal about ACCC conductors and its non-competitive market manipulation practice was brought to light in 2017 by Premium Times during the Buhari years. Industry experts say that composite core conductor field involves constant technology innovation, and many newer and better products are available on the market and have been in used by various utility companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Nigeria’s industry practitioners say the nation deserves to have the choice of best value high capacity/low loss composite core conductors to help repair and rehabilitate her power grid. There is great concern that if TCN goes ahead with only using ACCC conductors, the problem of transmitting more power and system failure will only grow worse.

•Hassan is an engineer and commentator on the power sector.
June 12, 2024
Interrogating Nigeria’s food inflation crisis

By Lekan Ibirogba

A two-page special report titled, “Forces Fuelling High Price Regime, Despite Naira’s Rebound,” published in The Nation of May 27, offers an illuminating context for understanding the sky-high prices of commodities and services, which Nigerians have been grappling with for several months running. Although its major focus is on the relationship between the value of the Naira against convertible currencies, especially the US Dollar, the special report provides an understanding also of why food inflation constantly registers as a major driver of composite inflation figures usually announced monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The many informed sources interviewed for the special report marshalled cogent explanations why, even though the Naira has appreciated significantly in value against the US Dollar in recent weeks, prices which rose astronomically when the Naira exchanged at between N1,900 and N2,000 per one US Dollar, are yet to witness commensurate reduction now that the Naira exchanges for no more than N1,500 to one US Dollar.

This intervention is to draw attention to other drivers of food inflation, and to underscore the point that, without arresting these drivers, we would continue to bemoan the high cost of food in the country, which according to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for April indicated that food inflation accounted for over 40% of total consumer price index. By now, it should be clear to all and sundry that the distribution of 10 kg, or even 25 kg, bag of rice as palliatives does little to affect the prices of other food commodities in the market, which means such hand-outs neither boost the purchasing power nor alleviate the pressure on the consumer.

What is also obvious is that, over the past 25 years, states and local governments have not given agriculture—and food security—priority attention. While state governments, for obvious electoral mileage, have pumped in resources into the construction of outrageously priced local airports, overhead bridges, highways, and other infrastructure, agriculture has been largely neglected. The clearest pointer to this neglect is to ask how many kilometres of rural and feeder roads have been constructed and maintained by the sub-national governments in recent years. If such rural roads were in place, the country would have tackled one of the crisis issues in our agricultural sector, which is, post-harvest losses due to logistic difficulties in more efficiently moving produce from the farm to the market. If the wasted harvest had been in the market, prices would reduce and, all else equal, there would be less challenge of affordability to citizens.

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The very low rate of mechanisation in our agricultural activities and the equally low utilisation of irrigation are also pointers to the little attention that state governments are paying to agriculture. On March 11, there was a lot of fanfare when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu launched about 500 tractors, as part of the Niger State government’s commendable effort to literally revolutionize mechanisation in cultivating the extensive arable land in the state. Where are the other states? It is a safe bet that you can hardly count up to 25% of the 36 states where mechanisation in agriculture is a priority measure to help increase food production and make a positive impact on the country’s food security situation. On the other hand, the federal government, through the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, has reached an agreement with John Deere and TATA Africa for the supply of 10,000 tractors and mechanical implements at the rate of 2,000 tractors per annum. The ministry is also implementing another agreement with Brazil and Belarus, for the supply of equipment to boost mechanisation in the country. But let each state government raise its finger and announce how many functional tractors they have with its state’s Ministry of Agriculture.

It is also worthy of mention that what is widely acknowledged as the death of local governments in the country, because they have been rendered non-functional by most state governors now and in the past, is also a pointer to why local governments do not play any significant role in the country’s agricultural sector. How then can we assure the country’s food security? It is no rocket science that if all tiers of government played their roles optimally in the nation’s agricultural production system, the country’s strategic food reserve would be full of stock from where periodic or targeted releases are made in order to curtail runaway prices of food commodities.

In the same vein, commodity dealers and members of market unions who are retailers fix their prices almost arbitrarily, like a cartel. Haven’t we all noticed how you go to a market, where ordinarily you can haggle, but it often turns out that there is little or no variation in the price at which the traders are willing to sell a particular commodity? In some cases, where a trader decides to marginally reduce the price of his/her food commodity, he/she cautions you not to let other traders in the same commodity in the same market know at what knocked-down price you bought from him/her. There is little question that, indeed, Nigerian consumers are at the mercy of traders and dealers, who themselves are at the mercy of transporters, who are equally at the mercy of high cost of diesel to fuel their trucks, plus exorbitant cost of maintaining their vehicles owing to the poor state of road infrastructure countrywide, including impassable rural and state roads.

Recently, some officials of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission visited some markets in Lagos, in an open push against the arbitrary pricing of commodities that are all adding up to the country’s aggregate inflation figures. The commission would need to do more, through the market unions and associations who have enlightened leadership. Moral suasion will do some good, but it appears that these traders do not recognise that price fixing which short-changes consumers is frowned at seriously by the law. After decades of wild spraying of Naira notes at social events, there is a sudden realisation now that it is, in fact, an offence for which you can actually go to jail if prosecuted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. So, people are now learning to behave themselves. Traders need such a lesson.

Except on few occasions when haulage truck drivers, or commercial vehicle drivers, disagree vehemently with law enforcement officials over extortion, and there is the so-called accidental discharge, the norm is that drivers and the extortionists have long established a notorious relationship. The drivers do not complain, because they do not want to be delayed. They simply “drop something” for the law enforcement officers. These are daily occurrences and open secrets. Some of the haulage trucks are conveying food items from one part of the country to the other, and the extortion points they encounter are uncountable. The consequence of “dropping something” at every extortion point is that the cost is passed on to the owners of the goods and produce who similarly pass on the cost to the consumer. So, part of the food inflation derives from the corrupt practices of law enforcement officers on the highway.

It is reassuring to hear, and to read, from time to time, the declared goal of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, to increase food production countrywide. Free seeds and seedlings to farmers, subsidised fertilizers, herbicides and other agro inputs, are among the bag of measures by which the ministry hopes to achieve the goal of increased food production, in collaboration with the state governments. Fair enough. But the Federal Ministry of Agriculture must ensure that fertilizers and other inputs get to the farmers on time, because the perennial complaint of most farmers is that these boosters of agricultural production often arrive rather late and therefore not so useful. The system must also get rid of the rent-seeking middlemen/women who pose as farmers to collect inputs whereas they have no farmlands, except to resell to genuine farmers same inputs at scandalous profits.

The National Economic Council, Nigeria Governors Forum, and Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON), must see the current affordability crisis in Nigeria’s food security system as a wake-up call to re-order their priorities and strive to change the depressing narrative for the better, and for all times. It is also important for individual states to interrogate their respective food security situation and fashion out mitigation measures, where necessary. For example, why does Kogi State consistently rank as Number One with the highest food inflation in the country? How can the state change that profile? And what is it doing to alter that ranking?

•Ibirogba, a public affairs analyst, writes from Ibadan, Oyo State.

June 11, 2024
As Tinubu clears foreign airlines’ funds

By Andrew Nduka

The recent clearance of the trapped foreign airlines’ funds by the Tinubu administration represents a positive index for Nigeria. It has erased some negative impressions about Nigeria and enhanced the international recording of the country. Coming at a time Nigeria’s public image seems to be at its lowest ebb, the settlement of the trapped airlines’ funds is a masterstroke for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on behalf of Nigeria.

The International Airport Transport Association (AITA), recently confirmed that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has cleared the foreign airlines’ trapped funds worth $831m from June 2023 till date. According to IATA, from a peak of about $850m, only $19m is still left outstanding. It added that the remaining $19m was waiting the CBN verification through the commercial banks.

The Director General of AITA, Willie Walsh praised the federal government for their effort in ensuring a successful repatriation of the funds by the international airlines. Walsh recalled that at the peak of the crisis in June 2023, Nigeria’s blocked funds significantly affected airline operations and finances in the country. Carriers faced difficulties in repatriating revenues in US dollars. The high revenue of blocked funds led some airlines to reduce their operations in Nigeria with the loss of jobs. The situation severely impacted the country’s aviation industry in an unprecedented manner. It is gratifying that as of April 2024, 98 percent of the funds have been cleared while the balance would be settled soonest.

Meanwhile, IATA also announced a significant decrease in the amount of foreign airlines funds blocked from repatriation by governments. According to Walsh, the major reason for the reduction is the significant clearance of the funds blocked in Nigeria, noting that Egypt also approved the clearance of a significant amount of its blocked funds. Unfortunately, the devaluation of the currencies of both Egypt and Nigeria has adversely affected the process. It said the situation is more severe in Pakistan and Bangladesh with the continuous blocking of $731m. “Pakistan and Bangladesh must release the $731m in blocked funds immediately to ensure that the airlines can continue providing essential air connectivity. In Bangladesh, the solution is in the hands of the Central Bank, which must prioritize aviation access to foreign exchange in line with international treaty obligations. The solution in Pakistan is in finding efficient alternatives to the system of audit and tax exemption certificates, which causes long processing delays,’ he stated.

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As would be expected, foreign airlines have applauded the CBN over the clearance of the trapped funds in the country. Speaking under the aegis of the Association of Foreign Airlines Representatives in Nigeria (AFARN), the airlines said the clearance is a sigh of relief for their operations. According to the president, Kingsley Nwokoma, the CBN is urged to adopt a quarterly payment plan for the remaining funds. Said AFARN, “We thank the government for listening and doing it little by little, but we hope they can do more or have an arrangement with the airlines for a quarterly payment and that would be perfect. A systematic type of payment every quarter will help defray the backlog, and we can also get it behind us once and for all.”

Also speaking, the Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto &Co, Ayokunle Olubunmi, said the clearance of the trapped funds and forex forwards would improve the value of the naira. According to him, “To be fair to the current CBN management, they have been trying their best, trying to clear the backlog of forex demand and matured forex forwards and have been trying to get them paid.” He added that the payment would boost investors’ confidence as they can easily repatriate their funds.

Acting director of corporate communications at the CBN, Mrs. Hakama Ali, further assured that the CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso and his team are doubly committed to and would stop at nothing to ensure that a verified backlog payment across all other sectors were effected and confidence restored in the Nigeria market. The CBN, she said, was working with stakeholders to ensure that liquidity improves within the forex market, thereby reducing the pressure on the naira. While expressing optimism that the market would respond positively to the development, she admonished actors in the foreign exchange market to guard against speculation as such actions would hurt the naira.

At the height of the trapped airlines funds, IATA had warned that the rapidly rising levels of blocked funds were a threat to airlines connectivity in the affected markets and were gradually becoming a threat to global operations. Nigeria has been facing a severe forex crisis which made it impossible for international carries to repatriate accumulated funds from tickets sold in naira. As a result, many airlines resorted to various methods to get the attention of government such as stopping ticket sales. The UAE’s Emirate airline notably suspended all flights to Nigeria.

At the time, the total blocked funds of the global airline industry increased by 3.96 percent to $2.36 billion in September 2023 from $2.27 billion in April 2023. Of this amount, $1.65 billion was trapped in Africa, of which 45 percent ($792m) was trapped in Nigeria. The CBN prohibited foreign airlines from issuing tickets to locals in foreign currency according to section 20(1) of the CBN Act. Nigeria has been experiencing a huge shortage of forex amid a growing demand and it appears the CBN has not been prioritizing airlines in accessing foreign exchange.

In September 2023, President Bola Tinubu directed the CBN to create a platform for quarterly re-conciliatory meetings with foreign airlines to address the backlog of trapped funds and shortly thereafter, plans to clear the forex backlogs were rolled out.

Given the crucial importance of air travel for efficient conduct of trade and other economic activities and the impact on foreign direct investment (FDI), steps should be taken to ensure forex availability for the airlines. It is on that ground that President Tinubu’s latest intervention in this regard should be commended. Government should do everything within its power to sustain this tempo and not relent to let the anomie to recur.

•Dr. Nduka, a public affairs commentator wrote from Port Harcourt

June 10, 2024
South Africa: the fall of ANC

Horse-trading got underway over the past week in South Africa as ruling African National Congress (ANC) – Africa’s oldest liberation movement-turned political party – reached out for possible alliances to enable it to form a new government. The party that was once led by legendary Nelson Mandela lost its electoral dominance for the first time in the rainbow country’s post-apartheid history, forcing it into an uncharted territory where it must seek coalition partners to be able to govern.

The outcome of the May 29th parliamentary elections in South Africa upended ANC’s 30-year majority rule. It was its worst showing since the end of apartheid. The party came off with 40.18 percent of the votes to win 159 spots in the 400-seat national assembly, down from 230 seats it controlled in the previous assembly. Other big three winners are the main opposition party, Democratic Alliance (DA), which got 21.81 percent of the votes; uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), 14.58 percent; and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), 9.52 percent. Whereas DA is perceived as white dominated and centre-right in orientation, both MKP and EFF are radical-left splinters of ANC and are believed to have helped with its humiliation by pulling away its black votes. Jacob Zuma, a former president of the country and leader of ANC who lost out to incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 following a bitter power struggle, founded MKP only last December; while a former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema, has long been the arrowhead of EFF.

A record 70 parties and 11 independents participated in the elections to form a new national parliament and nine provincial legislatures. By South African laws, voters decide how many seats each party gets in parliament, leaving lawmakers to subsequently elect the country’s president from the largest party or coalition in the legislature. The new parliament is required to hold its inaugural sitting and elect the president within 14 days of the final election results being declared. South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) made that declaration on Sunday, June 2nd, meaning the new parliament has barely a week from today to its sitting.

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ANC, the party of venerated Mandela who led the struggle that freed South Africa from apartheid white minority rule, swept to power in 1994 on a pledge to “build a better life for all,” taking almost 63 percent of the vote in the country’s first democratic election that Madiba won after being released in 1990 from more than 27 years of political incarceration. It had won every previous national election since that historic vote by landslide and governed with a comfortable majority. But its support dwindled over the past decade as the economy stagnated and fuelled widespread poverty, unemployment rate ballooned and infrastructural facilities degenerated in the nation of 62million people. This latest election sounded the death knell on ANC’s dominance, revealing an unprecedented slump in its support base as voters shifted their loyalty. The party of Madiba’s heirs lost Madiba’s magic. The country must now learn to dance the coalition dance – a dance that under the best of conditions is fraught with partners stepping on one another’s toes. ANC is only down but not out, though. Ramaphosa is eligible to keep his job for a second and final five-year term because the party yet has the most votes. But he and the party are weakened as they must enlist coalition partners – something never done before at national level – to be able to form a majority government.

Following the electoral body’s declaration of the final results, Ramaphosa called on political parties to work together for the good of the country. “South Africans expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, overcome their differences and act together for the good of everyone. That’s what South Africans have said,” he stated in a public address, describing the poll as “victory for our democracy.” The president added: “Our people have spoken. Whether we like it or not, they have spoken. We have heard the voices of our people and we must respect their choices and their wishes… The people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs.”

South Africa before now had coalition governments at provincial and municipal levels that have mostly been rocky, but it never needed to have one at the national level. The outcome of the May 29th poll, however, imposes that necessity. ANC and, by extension, South Africa are confronted with difficult choices – all of which are bitter pills fraught with challenges down the road.

One possible choice is for ANC to forge an alliance with Zuma’s MKP and / or Malema’s EFF that are its splinters. But that isn’t an easy option as it may seem, because it was disillusionment with the ruling party’s moderate policies amidst pervasive poverty and a feeling of economic exclusion among blacks that Zuma and Malema capitalized on to move to the radical left. And it isn’t like ANC is set to move over there to join them. Both EFF and MKP espouse seizing white-owned land without compensation, and nationalising the country’s gold and platinum mines that are among the world’s biggest producers. The two splinter parties are perceived as not business-friendly, and an alliance by ANC with them could alienate investors and lead to further slump in the economy and, in effect, lack of job creation. In any event, there is a personality conflict between Mr. Ramaphosa and Mr. Zuma that poisons the well. The ex-president turned a fierce critic of the incumbent after he was forced to resign as ANC leader in 2018 and served a brief stint in jail in 2021 for contempt of court. On the heels of the latest election, Zuma’s party said it would be prepared to work with ANC on condition that Ramaphosa steps down from the helm – a condition that ANC leadership ruled out of hand outright.

Another option is for ANC to forge a coalition on the political right with DA: a prospect viewed as having the greatest potential for stability. But that choice is no less problematic than reaching out to the radical left, considering significant philosophical differences between the two sides about the role of government and how to overcome the country’s economic and social challenges. For ANC, empowerment policies aimed at giving black people a stake in the economy following their exclusion during the racist apartheid era are “non-negotiable.” DA, however, objects to ‘big government’ and its leader, John Steenhuisen, advocates pro-market economy that treats the private sector as partners in the growth agenda, greater focus on frugality and efficiency in government. Analysts fear that even if the two sides manage to forge a coalition, it could be dogged by instability that would discourage investment, and investors could keep the sidelines and thereby withhold the life gas the economy badly needs. Foreign policy could also be conflicted.

One possible choice, of course, is for ANC to cobble marginal parties that won a collective total of 13.91 percent of votes in the May poll into a coalition. Only it would be like managing a house of commotion to synthesize their diverse ideological leanings into a governance template – a prospect that could gridlock government business and send investors fleeing the country. There is also the remote possibility of ANC going it alone with a minority government. But such a government would be inevitably unstable, as getting anything through parliament would be almost impossible. If the annual budget isn’t passed, for instance, spending becomes unauthorised – a messy situation politically and economically. ANC has itself downplayed this option because it would make governance an uphill task.

There are no easy choices for the seventh administration of ANC in post-apartheid South Africa, and the citizens will have to hang on to their seats for a rocky five years ahead. Still, there are positive takeaways for other countries like Nigeria:

(i) Whatever arrangement South Africa comes up with will be a government of compromises and accommodation of political diversity. National interest will be topmost in consideration.

(ii) The parties are identifiable with their different ideological leanings that have to be negotiated upon. You could ask: what political ideology can Nigerian political parties be respectively identified with?

(iii) South African voters delivered a verdict that was long in coming on an errant party that made its association with iconic Mandela its presumptive credential. Mandela’s memory remains venerated, but ANC will have to prove its own mettle. The people will always matter; and

(iv) Voters are the true jury on performance by the political class. The process of their delivering their verdict – i.e. elections – must be unimpeachable.

•Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation

June 10, 2024
Desecration of the royal stool

By Mike Kebonkwu

We are perpetually on edge in Nigeria; nervous about security and safety, worried about how the next meal will come, disturbed about the mounting bills; school fees, medicals, bank charges and sundry other taxes, not to talk of endless queue day in and day out at the gas station. Now we have to add the quarrel and fight over the traditional stool of Kano between two brothers.

The traditional institution and royal stool as symbols of our culture have come under siege. As Achebe would say through his philosophical character, Obierika in his inimitable work, “Things Fall Apart”, ‘He has put a knife on the things that held us together and we have fallen apart”. Today, it is the ruling class, not the imperialist colonial master that is dividing us. Like the nation like the royal stool, state chief executives deploy the coercive power of the state to attack the basis of our existence. It is not now about the egg or the chicken, which comes first; politics came and met the tradition and conquered it and destroyed its pristine value. Hitherto, the royal stool and politics were two rivers on the same course whose waters do not meet or mix in the ordinary course of life.

The myth of the traditional stool can only be understood by the initiates to the reverence and awe of the people. The royal stool is interplay of man, the gods and ancestors that control the affairs of the living. The king symbolizes the royalty that heads the pantheon of the deities of the people and custodian of the custom and traditional of the people. He occupies a spiritual position and offers sacrifice to appease the gods during ceremonial occasions and whenever there is threat or misfortune in the land. The king wears the fearsome mask like the ‘egungun’ or ‘ijele’ and does not come to the public like ordinary mortals. That is the reason the royal robes, veils and regalia are not won by ordinary folks. You do not unmask the big masquerade in public!

A shining example is the British monarchy that is the head of the principality that sits on the throne but maintain respectable royal distance from partisan politics even as the head of government. The British people are very proud of the monarchy and their heritage which they sell with glamour to the whole world. We are not proud of our own; the rogue public officers have demystified and desecrated the traditional stool because they view the royal father and traditional stool from one dimensional linear narrative of exercise of political power. The chieftaincy laws appear to have ceded the royal and traditional stool to political leadership wherein the chief executive officer of the state hands over staff of office to a traditional ruler, pays his salaries and allowances. As the saying goes, he who pays the piper dictates to tune! So, a governor of a state can just wake up at the wrong side and dethrone a king or emir just for political consideration and nothing more.

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That is the fate of Kano Emirate and the royal stool that has been reduced to a pawn on a political chessboard where emirs are enthroned and dethroned like a mother changing diapers. I don’t care who becomes and emir or king but I value the respect of every established institution; traditional or political. I am unable to understand whether the seat of an emir is an extension of a political office or an institution regulated by tradition and culture of the people. The indigenous people of Kano may well begin to interrogate the whole essence of the stool of the emirate to their cultural wellbeing in our contemporary history, and whether to begin to subject the stool to periodic election conducted by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) where candidates can be rigged in and out according to their political connections to suit the tenure of the governor.

The foot soldiers for the battle as always are street urchins, the ‘talakawas’ (commoners) and the wretched of the earth who are victims of Nigeria’s modern state represented by both traditional institution and the politicians working in tandem. The masses are the ones whose hands are used to pull the chestnut out of the fire for the elites. These are the same hoi polloi who did not find their voice to protest against hike in fuel price and removal of subsidy on petrol. They did not protest against insecurity and commercial kidnapping; they did not protest against outrageous cost of living and suffocating poverty that have become their lots. They did not find voice to protest the waste in government and outrageous salaries and allowances members of the National Assembly award to themselves as against what the ordinary workers earn in the same economy.

The government both state and federal see the emirate stool as a battle of priority without any display of neutrality. The police was immediately deployed with battle gears to take over the city of Kano. We are told they are there to keep the peace. A garrison of soldiers was also seen on the street but their commanders claimed their presence had nothing to do with any side or party in the emirate fight. Let it be indeed true that that is the case as the army and indeed the military must be seen to maintain a good distance for its image and reputation.

The judiciary was enmeshed in the fray in very disreputable and dishonourable manners issuing conflicting injunctions from courts of coordinate jurisdictions. The lawyers and judges involved displayed frightening disparagement of the institution of justice and brought the judiciary to odium.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi now imposed and Ado Bayero, deposed are cousins and royalties of the once revered ruling dynasty in Kano. It is after all, a family fight! They are both privileged and pampered from birth. Even though the federal government has maintained a conspiratorial silence, the presence of the Director of the Department of State Services (DSS) and other federal agents clearly showed where the support and sympathy of the federal government lies. Today, the traditional institutions have been stripped off its regal spiritual paraphernalia; you see a king or emir endorsing and campaigning for political parties and candidates in elections. The absurd drama in Kano emirate is an attack on custom and tradition; one is not even sure of their relevance any longer. The choice of who occupies a traditional stool should not be subject of political endorsement. There are rites and rituals for selection of kings known only to the kingmakers and when a king also violates the sacred oath of the ancestors and his office, he is also dethroned in a spiritual traditional cult known also only to the initiates.

One way or the other, the issue will be put to rest and I think it is in the interest of everybody; but one thing is sure, there is nothing left of that stool that is royal, noble, enduring and traditional to hold the people together. The royal robe and regalia has been taken to the market square to be washed and dry cleaned in a sacrilegious pool. To the talakawas and the wretched of the earth that remain the victims, please borrow sense and do not allow yourselves to be used for the royal war; it is not your battle, choose your own fight!

•Kebonkwu Esq is an Abuja-based attorney. He writes via mikekebonkwu@yahoo.com

June 10, 2024
South Africa
- ANC lost. Democracy won. A critical juncture dawns
Since the coming of democracy in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) just lost its parliamentary majority in South Africa, after the May 29 general elections.

The vote tally, among the top four parties: ANC — 40.18%, Democratic Alternative (DA) — 21.81%, uMhonto we Sizwe (NK) — 14.58%, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) — 9.52%.

From a 57.5% share of the vote in 2019 (winning 230 seats from the 400-member state parliament), ANC’s share tumbled to 40.18%; and its share of parliamentary seats, down to 159 — thus surrendering its majority.

Were ANC still to form the government — and by law, it has till June 16 to cobble together a coalition to do that — the party of the great Nelson Mandela, though still the biggest in parliament, would have to share ruling space with others.

The ANC lost — and the reason is clear, given these dire socio-economic statistics, courtesy this summary from ‘The Conversation’, a South African publication: an economy with “negative per capital growth, high and rising unemployment, poverty and inequality, a government deeply in debt, and 26 million people — 42% of the population — on grants.”

That appears a near-socio-economic meltdown, from the post-apartheid promise of 1994.

Yes, ANC lost — a crushing loss with a 17% vote decline from its 57.5% share in 2019. Even the 2019 57.5% share was a dip from its 62.15% tally of 2014. So, the red signals had always flashed.

Yet, democracy gained. That is something to celebrate. For all the sharp dispute over principles, tactics and strategy, among the many contesting parties, there was no report of any serious violence. That should teach the rest of Africa that only principled dissent powers progress.

Besides, after its traumatic experience with White minority rule, it is nice that post-apartheid South Africa is embarking on some democratic de-coupling and hopefully, a future fusion: not based on colour, or even on numbers (which could have been reversed Black apartheid), but on the quality of ideas — from Black, White, Indian or Mixed — to push the rainbow nation to new heights.

In 30 years, ANC has not been able to do that. But aside from the sleaze that has crept into its ranks, ANC’s failure was partly because the 1994 agreements still left the economy — and the nation’s wealth and assets — pretty much in the hands of the apartheid-era elite, though now reformed to subject themselves to the dictates of democratic rule.

That planted the seed for ANC to self-dissipate. Whatever reforms it carried

out, it could not quite slake the acute thirst of its more radical wings, which had dreamed of sweeping post-apartheid wealth redistribution, that should give the Black — and poor — majority a decent share of the national pie.

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The first red light flashed in 2013, when Julius Malema, symbolising the alienated youth, pulled out from the ANC old guard, to form the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). That very name echoed the plight of the youths, looking for a quick fix.

The EFF resonated with the radical youths; but as with Tunji Braithwaite’s National Advance Party (NAP: 1983) and Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress (AAC: 2019), it gathered little traction beyond campaign huff and parliamentary stirs, as the maverick Malema often descended on his old party, particularly during the tenure of Jacob Zuma as State President.

Six years later — 2019, and barely six months to the 2024 elections — the disgraced Zuma — still a fiery force in his KwaZulu-Natal homeland — would also pull out to form NK (“Spear of the Nation”): incidentally the name of the ANC military wing, during the apartheid years, when Zuma was a prime player. It is an evocative name that suits fine Zuma’s own sense of victimhood, when not a few accuse him — and not unfairly so — of the grand corruption that crippled the ANC and sucked clean its mystique.

Had both EFF and NK remained with ANC, the party would still have garnered 63.76% of the June 4 general election tally, despite the mass disillusion in the land. But between both, Zuma’s NK appears to pose the greater danger.

By polling some 45.9 % of votes in his native KwaZulu-Natal, the third biggest in the South African Parliament is all but a regional party. That could bring back ethnic tension — and violence — that Zuma himself ironically helped to roll back in 1994, when a good number of the Zulu, arrayed behind Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Nkata Freedom Party (NFP), embarked on a Black-on-Black (read NFK vs ANC) violence in that region.

African traditional disputes hardly quickly ends, with the parties digging in for a fight-to-finish. If that holds true in South Africa, then an ANC alliance with NK or EFF, is all but precluded. That opens a rather intriguing window with the DA — practically the surviving “White” party from the apartheid era, though the party is said to have latterly made cross-racial gains, among the middle class Blacks; and the upwardly mobile across other races.

That would be something very interesting: the ANC (legacy party of the majority Black dispossessed), striking a power deal with DA (the closest to the legacy party of the apartheid era minority White overlords)! Indeed, some leading lights of DA collaborated with the then apartheid government, if only as principled opposers to force a change from within. Is a reset then near? Time will tell!

Whatever happens on June 16, South Africa stands on the cusp of some change — good or bad, it is too early to tell. The ANC, hobbled and humbled, just has to learn how to share power with others. That could, if political projections are anything to go by, be the template in the very immediate future.

Still, it would not matter much if democracy wins in 2029 and 2034, as it has in 2024, even if the majority party slipped. The parties in parliament can always cobble together a government that can deliver on the hopes and aspirations of long-suffering South Africans, made very acute by dreary socio-economic numbers.

The ANC stumble should hold a huge lesson for Nigeria. If the ANC, founded in 1912, as a mass party with very clear ideology, could dissipate in just 30 years of democracy, Nigeria’s ruling — and other parties — must strive to renew themselves.

The PDP, Nigeria’s first ruling party since 1999, had little ideology beyond grabbing power and using or misusing it. It overplayed its cards and got blown away in 2015. APC, the current ruling party, must learn from both PPP

But even if APC were to falter, it would not really matter, if democracy actually won. That is the shining story from South Africa, even with the ANC gasping for breath.
June 9, 2024