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  • The seemingly perpetual disequilibrium in the economy

    The seemingly perpetual disequilibrium in the economy

    By Vincent O. Akinyosoye

    This treatise on the Nigerian economy offers a simple technical explanation of the socio-economic malaise plaguing the nation. Unfortunately, this situation has been with us for the past 60 years or so. And may remain with us for a long time if we do not get the right set of persons to lead us for a sufficiently long period of restitution. Such group of persons must be sufficiently knowledgeable about the situation of things and find the pathways out of the woods. They must be sincere about the actions being pursued, have the capacity for hard work, be good managers of human and material resources and can govern and lead the society with the core values of service, passion, integrity, resourcefulness, inclusiveness, and teamwork (SPIRIT). It is such leadership that can bring us out of the present situation. In view of the almost permanent nature of this parlous state, which can be aptly described as a perpetual state of disequilibrium and a situation which can be perceived as hopeless, the task will be herculean!

    Generally, a disequilibrium situation is one that deviates from the norm or ideal position and needs restoration through serious thinking and hard work. A good example from the science of economics is that equilibrium is attained when the supply of a commodity is equal to the demand for the commodity in the market. In such a situation, the price of the commodity is optimum because at that price, the supplier of the community is willing to sell, and the customer is willing to buy. The optimum price is therefore the equilibrium price for the commodity at a particular time, ceteris paribus (all things being equal).

    When a disequilibrium situation occurs in the market for commodities, it is reflected in the prices gyrating up and down. For example, if the demand for a commodity is more than the supply at a particular time or place, the price of that commodity will be above its equilibrium price and vice versa. In an increased price situation, the market is sending signals to those that can influence the supply to increase supply of the commodity, in order to moderate the price and restore equilibrium. This market could be a “rice market” or “dollar market” as presently manifested in the Nigerian commodity markets. Such situation, however, occurs in a market in which some structural problems do not hinder the production and/or supply of the commodity. If any structural problem exists to hinder supply on a permanent basis, equilibrium will not be restored and the dislocation in the system continues, leading to a perpetual state of disequilibrium.

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    In the real world, the commodity space is multi-dimensional and complex with many commodities and prices. Imagine a market situation where there are no shortages, that is, demands are completely met with the available supplies in the various markets for goods and services and everyone gets all what he or she wants in the right quantities, at the right time, in the right places and at the right prices. Such a market situation can be equated to a bliss point in life, that is, a situation of extreme happiness close to what clerics preach about heaven. But is this the world of ours in Nigeria? Evidence abounds to demonstrate that we are very far from this bliss point. In our case, it is a situation of shortages galore from food shortages to limited availabilities of non-food goods and services, from very limited employment opportunities to shortfalls in foreign exchange, from poor supply of electricity to bad rural-urban and trunk roads, from dysfunctional rail networks to limited schools and health facilities that are equally below standards, from lack of potable water to ineffective security, and shortages of a host of other goods and services that can make life meaningful to the average human being.

    The foregoing itemization of deviations from the norms in the Nigerian economy is not exhaustive in any way. These signs of anomalies are obvious on a daily basis, and they have to be corrected, and equilibrium restored to make people happy. Restoring equilibrium is a herculean task that needs a large dose of strength, diligence, discipline, courage and intelligence that are generally in short supply amongst the core set of political and administrative leaders we have at the national and sub-national levels of government. The situation is more challenging at the sub-national levels where, for example, local government councils are completely dysfunctional and not performing any of their constitutional roles in grassroots development. And most state governments are poor managers of resources engaging mainly in wasteful and politically visible large projects (like building airports, universities, dual carriage city roads and mega schools) that eat-up their meagre resources with nothing left to perform their traditional development roles, failing to pay salaries of public servants and pensions and gratuities to retirees when due.

    The situation at the federal level is not different with constitutionally too much ascribed fiscal responsibilities and penchant for wasteful and relaxed spending. By the latest count, there are over 400 MDAs with other numerous cost centres in the executive and legislative arms of government and hundreds of thousands of federal public servants expending over 70 per cent of the annual budgets on recurrent expenditures with little left for development projects. A fundamental outcome of this approach to governance in which plenty of money from government is being continually pumped into the economy without a strong productive base and functional infrastructure results in too much money chasing too few goods with the attendant upward pressure on inflation. This is the situation we are today in all our various markets.

    In conclusion, it will make sense to borrow some lessons from Robert S. McNamara, an astute economist in the era of late President John Kennedy of the United States of America, who asserted in one of his brilliant essays some 60 years ago that there cannot be peace in a society without development. By development, we mean a society without food shortages, without population explosion, without low level of productivity in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors of the economy, without low level of personal income (aka poverty), without low level technology of production, without dysfunctional and insufficient economic and social infrastructure, and without high unemployment. If these ideal conditions do not prevail, that is, equilibrium is not restored in the markets, economic history teaches us that conflicts within the society will occur, often resulting in ethnocentrism with likely occurrences of violence, bloodletting and war as happened in Europe prior to the Second World War, before our own Civil War, and before the present conflict in Syria. The absence of development begets ethnic tension, tribalism, nepotism, corruption, and other unwholesome human behaviours common in poor societies. These are the societal problems government at all levels must strive to resolve through politico-social and economic interventions.

    •Akinyosoye is a professor of Applied Economics and Data Management. He is the immediate past Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

  • The enigma (Justin Olabode Emanuel)

    The enigma (Justin Olabode Emanuel)

    By J.K. Randle

    It must be about 40 years ago when I found myself seated next to Chief Justin Olabode Emanuel at a dinner at the Good Earth (Chinese) Restaurant at 233 Brompton Road, Knightsbridge, London.  The heavyweights around the table were Chief Sobo Sowemimo S.A.N.; Alhaji Femi Okunnu S.A.N.; Dr. Bolaji Ajenifuja; Professor Bolaji Kuti; Alhaji Alade Idris Animashaun; Professor Theo Ogunbiyi; Chief Akin Disu  and several others.  Perhaps it was inevitable that discussions would centre on the widely publicized BBC Panorama programme on Nigeria which was broadcast on the previous day.  The trailer cut straight to the marrow:

    “It’s amazing that Nigeria first had Cable lines in 1886 and telephones in 1893.  Electricity followed in 1896 and in 1898 Lagos became the second city in the world (after Munich, Germany) to have electric street lights when most cities were gas lit.  Iju Water Works has been supplying potable water in Lagos since 1910.  What went wrong ?”

    Chief Emanuel provided the answer.  With a chuckle he declared: “King’s College, Lagos !!”

    The Old Boys of King’s College around the table – Okunnu and Idris Animashaun protested vigorously.  However, nothing would dissuade Chief Emanuel from pinning the blame on King’s College.  Anyway, the argument went back and forth.  Chief Emanuel was adamant. He insisted that the British colonial government had founded King’s College in 1909 to groom Nigeria’s future leaders but the Old Boys had abdicated their responsibility.  According to him, the country was in ruins and the rescue mission was being dumped on St. Gregory’s College and its Old Boys.  It was all said in jest.  Hence, there was no damage inflicted on the conviviality around the table.

     Even back then, Chief Emanuel had his tentacles in many businesses.  He was already a tycoon and business mogul at the relatively young age of 50 years.  He did not suffer fools gladly.  In fact, he could be very abrasive.

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    Here we are 40 years later and we are confronted with our latest scorecard and auditor’s report by “The Economist” magazine.  On January 11, it published a hefty special report entitled “THE AFRICA GAP” which according to “Private Eye” magazine identified a number of ways in which the economic gap between Africa and the rest of the world is getting wider.

     “If its fifty-four countries are to seize the opportunity they have to do something exceptional: break with their own past and with the dismal statist orthodoxy that now grips much of the world.  Africa’s leaders will have to embrace business growth and free markets.”

    Back to the memorable dinner in Knightsbridge, London; it was a clear case dereliction Chief Emanuel was in his element – teasing and taunting the old boys of King’s College (Okunnu, Animashaun and me) for the decay and decadence in Nigeria.  As far as he was concerned, the old boys of King’s College (“KCOB’s) had abdicated their responsibility.

    The “KCOB’s” were unanimous in defending the reputation of our alma mater.  However, the more we protested, the more adamant and vehement Chief Emanuel was.  He was having great fun at our expense.  It was all good-hearted banter anyway.  He just would not stop.  He proceeded to highlight the self-evident decay of King’s College – the pristine and elegant colonial structure had become an eyesore.  The classrooms which were meant for only 25 students had exploded beyond quadruple that number.  It was the same story with the boarding house and its dormitories.  The toilet facilities had collapsed entirely.

    Chief Sowemimo (ex-C.M.S. Grammar School, Lagos) joined forces with Chief Emanuel) So also did Chief Akin Disu (also ex-C.M.S. Grammar School) to regale us with their dismay over the state of affairs in Nigeria and Lagos State in particular.  Whichever way, the old boys of King’s College were the culprits !!  It was confirmation of the old adage – many a true word is said in jest.  The humour was not lost on us the KCOB’s as we retaliated by pointing that both King’s College and St. Gregory’s College had become victims of circumstances.  The chequered history of Nigeria was well known to all of us.  Even if it is true that the British colonial government had deliberated, created King’s College, Lagos (founded in 1909) as an elite school in the image of Eton College or Harrow schools (public schools) as the incubator for Nigeria’s future leaders, the military coup of January 15 1966 had blown the mission totally off course.  Six months later there was a counter coup which threw the entire nation into turmoil.  The nation was on the verge of breaking up.  From 1966 to 1975, the leadership of Nigeria fell on the head of General Yakubu Gowon (ex-Barewa College, Zaria) who was toppled on July 29, 1975 and replaced by another old boy of Barewa College – General Murtala Muhammed who was assassinated on February 13, 1976 in Lagos.  It was a chilly Friday morning.

    Incidentally, I had visited him at his house at 6, Second Avenue, Ikoyi on the day before.  That is a story for another day.  He was replaced by General Olusegun Obasanjo (ex-Baptist Boys High School, Abeokuta).  On October 1, 1979, Obasanjo handed over power to Shehu Shagari (ex-Barewa College, Zaria).  The Vice-President was Dr. Alex Ekwueme (ex-King’s College, Lagos).

    In between all that turmoil and turbulence was the Nigerian civil war which raged between 1967 and 1970.  It cost more than a million lives.  On the Nigerian side was the Head of State –  Yakubu Gowon while the Biafran side was led by Emeka Ojukwu (ex-King’s College, Lagos).

    Of course, Chief Emanuel was quick to capitalize on a photograph which was widely circulated.  It was taken at the meeting in Kampala where the OAU (Organisation of African Union) had endeavoured to broker peace between Biafra and Nigeria in 1968.

     On the Biafran side was Sir Louis Mbanefo who was my father’s classmate at King’s College and on the Nigerian delegation were Chief Anthony Enahoro (ex-King’s College), Minister of Information, Chief Wenike Briggs (ex-King’s College, Minister of Education; Alhaji Femi Okunnu (ex-King’s College), Minister of Works; Chief Allison Ayida (ex- King’s College) Permanent Secretary; and Chief Philip Asiodu (ex-King’s College) Permanent Secretary.

    It was with glee that Chief Emanuel declared that it was all a King’s College, Lagos affair.

    However, here is the official report by Reuter: “Peace talks opened between Federal Nigeria and Secessionist Biafra in Kampala today (Thursday) with both sides agreeing on the need for a ceasefire in their 11-month-old civil war but differing on its timing. President Milton Obote, of Uganda, formally opened the talks in the conference Hall of the Parliament Building.  In speeches at a public opening session, the Biafrans said an immediate cessation of fighting should be the first step of peace, while the federal side said it wanted discussions first.  Then a ceasefire.  Observers in the Uganda Parliament’s Conference Hall, where the meeting started, noted that while the two sides were strong in condemnation of each other, they appeared to be leaving room for compromise. 

    The two sides came to Kampala after preliminary talks in London, and the meeting is under the auspices of the commonwealth secretariat, led by the Secretary-General, Mr. Arnold Smith, of Canada.  Both the federal side and the Biafrans are represented by five-man delegations and are accompanied by observers.  Chief Anthony Enahoro, Commissioner for Information in the Lagos Government, leads the Federal Delegation, while the main Biafran spokesman is Chief Justice and Former World Court Judge, Sir Louis Mbanefo (ex-King’s College)”.

    It was uncanny how deferential Chief Emanuel was to Chief Sobo Sowemimo, S.A.N., the Jaguna of Egbaland.  The chemistry between them was palpable and self-evident.  It was Chief Emanuel who whispered to me that Chief Sowemimo was actually the friend of his elder brother, Dr. Abosede Emanuel.  However, the Jaguna of Egbaland was his benefactor.  Jaguna had grown up in Kano.  Hence, he spoke Hausa language fluently and his network of Hausa speaking northerners  was instrumental to Chief Emanuel’s highly lucrative business contacts with the likes of General Murtala Mohammed; General T.Y. Danjuma; Alhaji Ibrahim Damcida; Alhaji  Ahmed Joda; Senator Mahmoud Waziri, etc.

    It was well after midnight before we left the Chinese restaurant.  We had been so thoroughly engrossed in dissecting the problems of Lagos; the fate of Nigeria, and the future of democracy in Africa that we did not notice that the restaurant had closed!!  All the staff had gone home.

    Chief Justin Olabode Emanuel and I were the last to leave.  We were neighbours in Chelsea.  All the same he remained an enigma.

    His chauffer and sleek Mercedes Benz Limousine were waiting for him.  I preferred to walk all the way down Sloane Street, then King’s Road and Flood Street.  I could not but notice the policeman who was standing in front of the house of Mrs. Margaret Thatcher who was then the Prime Minister of Britain.

    • Bashorun Randle writes from Lagos.

  • Sunrise on Renewed Hope

    Sunrise on Renewed Hope

    By Jack Etuk

    The chief revenue officer of the federation and Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Zacch Adedeji, has been trending since the beginning of this year. And for the right reasons, too. Historically, the tax man has not always been the beloved of the people. Not even in the Western world is the revenue collector always welcomed.

    One of such endearments came from the Joint Finance Committee of the Senate and the House of Representatives. On Wednesday, January 15, the Committee commended Adedeji, for leading the agency to surpass its 2024 revenue collection target of N19.4 trillion. By the end of 2024, FIRS had netted a whopping N21.6 trillion in revenue for that year, surpassing its target by over N2.2 trillion.

    This joint committee is not always a place public officers go to and come out smiling. It’s a truth-telling committee especially so because of its primary duty: oversight of financial matters especially revenue collection. The atmosphere before the committee gets more febrile these days of dwindling oil and gas revenue.  Some public officers have appeared before the committee only to be scolded, deprecated and strongly rebuked for their low revenue drive, tardiness of their ledger and obvious lack of transparency and fiscal frugality. 

    Here, the FIRS helmsman ticked all the boxes to the acclamation of the committee members, who not only lauded his appetite for hard work evidenced by huge revenue collection but also his desire to maintain a high standard of integrity in the management of public finance.

    Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, Hon Saidu Musa Abdullahi, described Adedeji’s sterling performance at FIRS as unprecedented: “The feat attained by FIRS on revenue collection or generation in 2024 was unprecedented and a very wonderful one, worthy of commendation. That you surpassed the target set for the agency in the 2024 Appropriation Act, from N19.4 trillion to N21.6 trillion, is very cheering and encouraging,” an elated Abdullahi said.

    Encomium also came from Senator Joel-Onowakpo Thomas (APC, Delta South) who not only applauded Adedeji and his team but also charged them to deepen the collection process through strategic reforms. The senator pointed to an emerging global trend where countries around the world are turning to taxes to shore up their revenue base. The chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Sani Musa, could not pass off the opportunity to compliment the FIRS team for being different and setting a new path of openness, innovation and engagement in the nation’s revenue-collection ecosystem.

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    Those close to Adedeji say they are surprised by his soar-away success in office. With his favourite mantra, “we tax the fruit, not the seed” and “we tax prosperity, not poverty,” he changed the concept of revenue collection as Nigerians knew it. Payment of tax is not punitive but an obligation. And the drive for revenue collection should have a human face. It should promote productivity, and not kill production. This has guided his work ethics and philosophy at FIRS and he never ceases to insist that taxation should be fair and justifiable. He believes that both the revenue collector and the payer should meet at the intersection of fairness, humaneness and even-handedness. This gives no room for coercion and compulsion. And it has paid off as depicted in the financial results since he assumed office.

    In 2023, in which he could only be assessed on the last quarter performance, FIRS exceeded its revenue target of N11.55 trillion. It collected N12.36 trillion. By the first quarter of 2024, the service set a new record in the first quarter of 2024 with N3.94 trillion, representing a 56% increase from same period of the previous year. This streak of superlative performance was sustained all through 2024, culminating in what is now described as “unprecedented”, a record N21.6 trillion. This performance has earned the confidence of the joint committee. They are confident that the FIRS will meet, some say even exceed, the 2025 revenue target of N25 trillion.

    President Bola Tinubu has pledged Renewed Hope as the beacon that will drive his administration for the good of the nation. It is broken down into components including guaranteeing internal security, job creation, improved investment environment, macro-economic stability, human capital development, poverty alleviation, and social security. To achieve this, the president will need to increase the nation’s revenue base, especially by innovatively widening the frontiers of non-oil revenue. Taxation is a critical tool to shore up the national revenue till. And this is why the effort of Adedeji is seen by many as a fitting complement of the president’s vision. The revenue man has revved the engine of Renewed Hope to the approbation of many Nigerians including the National Assembly.

    This feat is not an accident. It is the product of critical thinking, strategic innovation and courage to implement a blueprint. There is, therefore, the need to interrogate the process that created the atmosphere of success at FIRS. Productivity happens when human capital engage technology through the right process and at the right mix. A right mix of human capital and technology.

    Adedeji integrated nine new modules into the TaxProMax system with the infusion of technology. With this, he achieved the automation of over 80% of processes previously manual-driven. This created a ‘One Stop Shop’ platform for all tax payers, big or small. The result is a fast, efficient, transparent and less obtrusive tax system that allows for flexibility and fairness for both the tax payer and the collector.

    He focused on the advancement of human capital to cope with the changing dynamics of revenue collection and management in a digital age. He ensured that FIRS staffers are upskilled in relevant aspects of their jobs while also minding their welfare. To ensure good corporate governance within the system, he launched the Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) in partnership with the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC). This has further promoted integrity and effective monitoring of the processes. He is at the vanguard of the National Single Window Project (NSWP), an innovation that will transform Nigeria’s trade sector with a unified digital platform for both import and export transactions. Surely, he deserves the laudatory symphony from the National Assembly and across the nation. He has renewed the hope of many.

    •Etuk, public policy analyst, writes from Abuja.

  • Let’s bring Ogoni saga to an end

    Let’s bring Ogoni saga to an end

    Ray Ekpu

    The attempt by President Bola Tinubu to resolve the Ogoni imbroglio is a worthwhile exercise. Last week he summoned some Ogoni stakeholders to a meeting in Abuja in the effort to find a solution to the Ogoni crisis. The people invited included prominent Ogoni citizens as well as the Rivers State governor, Sir Sim Fubara and the FCT minister who is the immediate past governor of Rivers State, Chief Nyesom Wike. This seems to be the first time in a long time that a major meeting of this nature is being organized to find a solution to the problem that is decades old.

    Ogoni is one of the oil producing areas in the Niger Delta. One of its leaders was Ken Saro Wiwa, an activist, politician and writer who, along with other progressive elements in the area, founded a group called the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP). MOSOP published what it called the Ogoni Bill of Rights which advocated for the political and economic autonomy for the Ogoni people as well as protect Ogoniland, a major oil producing area, from environmental degradation.

    Since oil was discovered in 1956 in the Niger Delta region, environmental degradation of the region has been a major source of discontent. Ken Saro Wiwa was one of the eminent champions for an oil zone that ought to be fairly treated by the oil companies and the federal government. While some of the Ogoni leaders wanted a less aggressive push for reforms in the oil industry, MOSOP’s leaders apparently preferred a more belligerent approach to solving the problem. When four Ogoni chiefs who were known to be opponents of MOSOP were murdered mysteriously in May 1995 some MOSOP fellows including Ken Saro Wiwa were accused of murdering them.

    The MOSOP group was very active in mobilising people for its cause. On January 4, 1993 they brought out 300,000 people to protest against oil production in Ogoniland. One of the Ogoni leaders pointedly accused the oil companies of bringing devastation to Ogoniland. He said “We have woken up to find our land desecrated by agents of death called oil companies. Our atmosphere has been totally polluted, our land degraded, our waters contaminated, our trees poisoned, so much so that our flora and fauna have virtually disappeared.”

    That day has since been recognised as Ogoni Day.

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    Based on the death of the four chiefs, the Sani Abacha government arrested nine members of MOSOP including Ken Saro Wiwa and kept them for several months in prison. Then a three-man tribunal was set up. In June 1995 the tribunal commenced sitting. Ken Saro Wiwa’s lawyers pulled out of the tribunal due to alleged false allegations, bribery of key prosecuting witnesses and its flawed nature. Many people thought it was a kangaroo tribunal and that the tribunal was working towards a pre-determined conclusion. The nine suspects were sentenced to death. There was worldwide protest against the sentencing. The military government, in response to the groundswell of opposition to the sentencing deployed 5,000 troops to Ogoniland. On November 10, 1995, the nine convicts were hanged in Port Harcourt.

    Since 1993, there has been no oil exploration or exploitation in Ogoniland and no serious effort has been made to clean up the territory or to resolve the issues that have kept the oil companies from the territory for 32 years. That is why the recent effort made by Tinubu at resolving the issues must be appreciated. At the meeting Tinubu told the attendees to put the past behind them because it would be hard to heal the wounds of the past if they continued to be angry. He promised that he would prioritise peace, justice and sustainable development of Ogoniland. Going forward, he directed the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu to coordinate inclusive negotiation with Ogoni leaders. Ogoni leaders need to be supported by other leaders from the Niger Delta Region because the issues that affect Ogoni also affect other zones in the region.

    In fact, the only issue that is exclusive to Ogoni is the matter of the murder of the four chiefs and the hanging of the Ogoni 9 MOSOP activists. The government ought to find a way of placating the relatives of these 13 Ogoni citizens who were victims of the conflict within their community. The government can consider giving some compensation to the families of those victims so as to placate all the sides in the Ogoni imbroglio.

    Other issues in the Ogoni matter are generally region-wide. Such issues include oil spill, devastation of the environment and the destruction of the flora and fauna, gas flaring, destruction of farmlands and pollution of water. Some of these issues were canvassed by PANDEF on when they submitted a 16-point agenda to the Muhammadu Buhari government some years ago. Most of those issues were not attended to by Buhari and they remain alive till today. They are also issues that MOSOP was pushing in its Ogoni Bill of Rights.

    My view is that the present leadership of PANDEF should resurrect that 16-point agenda and examine the ones that remain unresolved. It is important to place those issues before the Tinubu administration so that we do not get to a point where the militants in the Niger Delta zone feel that the problems of the region have been largely ignored especially now that the government is establishing development commissions in some zones of the country.

    I believe that the leaders of the Niger Delta region deserve to be commended for ensuring that for several years now, the guns have gone quiet in the region even though the region has not been fairly treated. Some of the worst federal roads can be found in the Niger Delta region. These include the East-West Road, the federal roads that link Cross River State with Akwa Ibom and the roads that link Rivers and Abia states with Akwa Ibom which is the highest producer of oil and gas in the country.

    As the negotiation with the Ogoni people begin I urge the Ogoni elders and youths to bring the problem with Shell, NNPC and federal government to an end so that development can return to their territory. It is obvious that even in the political front, Ogoniland has been seriously marginalised. In the 25 years that we have run our democratic governance, there has been no governor, no deputy governor, no Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly and no Chief Judge of the state chosen from Ogoniland. Such marginalisation can be brought to an end when politicians in the state discover that Ogoni people have now decided to bring their own self-isolation to an end. Allowing the oil companies to return to Ogoniland will bring profit to Rivers State generally and also to Ogoniland specifically. Let the isolation come to an end.

  • Africa in new Trump era

    Africa in new Trump era

    Africa was missing on the radar last Monday as President Donald Trump took the oath of office that heralded his return to the White House. Neither in his guest list nor in his inaugural speech and other speeches shortly after did the continent get any attention. It is only hoped he would come round to picking interest in the axis after he settles into office for his second term.

    Trump broke with tradition for his re-investiture to the United States presidency by opting for a coronation-style event. Presidential inaugurations in the US used to be a domestic affair: the president and vice-president took their oaths with American officials, past presidents and other local dignitaries present on the steps of the US Capitol building. The public watched from surrounding grounds. Inaugural speeches were typically saved for when the presidents arrived in the White House. But the event last Monday featured on-site inauguration address and was an international affair witnessed by foreign dignitaries invited by the incoming president.

    Before now, foreign leaders usually did not attend US presidential inaugurations; rather, diplomats such as country ambassadors to America or foreign ministers acted as representatives. For his inauguration, however, Trump invited close to a dozen world leaders – most of them conservative and right wing. Not all were America’s friends, though, because he also invited few rivals. A notable rival-invitee was Chinese President Xi Jinping, who when served the invitation last December made clear he would not personally attend but would rather be represented.

    Other invitees included Argentinian President Javier Milei, a far-right politician and friend of Trump who the American leader once hailed as someone who could “make Argentina great again” – an obvious reprise of his own mantra, “Make America Great Again (MAGA).” Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy party was invited; and so was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a populist politician and close Trump ally who, however, didn’t make the inauguration. Neither did former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right politician nicknamed ‘Trump of the Tropics,’ who although was invited could not attend because he is banned from travelling out of his country, with his passport confiscated by Brazil’s supreme court amid his investigation for alleged attempts to overturn results of the 2022 Brazilian election that he lost. Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa and his El Salvador counterpart, Nayib Bukele, were also invited.

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    Trump snubbed notable world leaders, though, including those of traditional allies of America. United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer was not invited whereas far-right British politician Nigel Farage of the Reform UK party was. Many of Europe’s leaders and member-countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) with largely centrist governments were ignored. German President Olaf Scholz did not get an invite; a courtesy extended to Alice Weidel, leader of far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Neither was French President Emmanuel Macron invited even though he is believed to be pally with Trump. Rather, French far-right politician Eric Zemmour of Reconquest party got extended that courtesy.

    Also prominent on the invitation snub-list were African leaders, none of whom Trump invited for his big day. The only attention Nigeria got, for instance, was in the invitation of two high-profile clerics from this country to events connected with the inauguration, which was perceived as underscoring ties between Christian evangelicals and the new US administration. Some analysts argued that Trump might be aiming at leveraging his popularity among Christians as an alternative way of exerting his influence on Africa, in preference to the more conventional channels of the continent’s political leaders. This remains to be seen.

    Deeper Life Bible Church founder, Pastor William Kumuyi, and notable gospel artiste, Pastor Nathaniel Bassey, featured at side events marking the US presidential inauguration. Reports said Kumuyi was invited to the oath-taking ceremony proper, but he was unable to attend because of harsh weather that necessitated moving the event indoors where room was limited. He, however, featured at a prayer service organised by an evangelical group for the new president. His invitation to the inauguration was unusual, considering that African heads of state were not on the guest list. For his part, Bassey performed as the only African invitee at the presidential inaugural prayer breakfast, which was a faith-based event held ahead of the swearing-in on Monday. It was not part of the official inauguration activities, though, and the new president did not attend.

    Trump took the oath as the 47th US president. He overcame two first term impeachments, post-tenure criminal indictments and a couple of assassination attempts to take on a second term. An Arctic blast outdoors rewrote the particulars of the day and compelled moving the inauguration ceremonies indoors to the Capitol Rotunda. It was reportedly the first time such was happening in 40 years.

    The new US leader came into office with a bullish zeal for unilateralism with his “America First” doctrine in a multilateral world order. In his inauguration address, he pledged a “golden age” for America and lit into the outgoing Joe Biden administration for allegedly leading the country downhill. “From this day forward, our country will flourish. We will be the envy of every nation and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer,” Trump said. He laid out an ultra-nationalist vision of the future that involves expansion of US territory. He also announced, among other things, plans to halt immigration into his country while weeding out immigrants already in-country but not properly documented. The vibes Trump exuded was unabashedly xenophobic, and in his worldview Africa did not receive a mention or get factored into potential spheres of American interest.

    On the heels of his inauguration speech, the president signed a slew of executive orders peeling back the legacy of his immediate predecessor and withdrawing his country from multilateral commitments. Of interest here are a few. One was his executive order seeking to revoke birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants. Birthright citizenship is protected by the 14th Amendment and the executive order was blocked later last week by a US federal judge. The judge held the order “blatantly unconstitutional” and gave an emergency injunction halting its implementation for 14 days while more briefings are made to the court on the legal challenge.

    Trump also signed an executive order to, for a second time, withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord. Nigeria is a signatory to that accord, which is potentiated to align financial flows on climate change issues in Africa and should benefit countries on the continent by increasing access to global and domestic investments for low-carbon assets. It is also potentiated to help bridge infrastructure gap across Africa sustainably through development of climate-resilient infrastructure.

    There was also the executive order to remove the US from the World Health Organization (WHO). “World Health ripped us off, everybody rips off the United States. It’s not going to happen anymore,”  Trump said as he signed the order. America has been the biggest contributor to WHO and its  withdrawal would dramatically cut funding from the global public health body from which African countries get strong support for disease control and prevention, universal health coverage and immunisation supplementation.

    Delivering a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, later last week, the American leader reaffirmed his country’s new unilateralism. He said in its new “golden age,” the US would pursue its singular national interests exclusively. He referred to America several times as a “sovereign” nation – a MAGA code for the US acting alone and not through international organisations that Washington helped to establish after World War II to make the world safe for all and promote prosperity for all. Trump argued that this is fair enough because “many things have been unfair for many years to the United States.” And America is so powerful and resource rich that it can do just fine on its own anyway. He said of Canada, for instance: “We don’t need them to make our cars… We don’t need their lumber because we have our own forests, etcetera, etcetera. We don’t need their oil and gas, we have more than anybody.”

    In this new Trump era, Africa had better wake up to the smell of the coffee. America has been the resource spine for many international bodies from which countries on the continent get support. Now, the American leader says the party is over except for where his country gets benefitted first; otherwise, everybody else should step up to the plate. Perhaps Trump is good for Africa after all. The donor-dependent mindset that has retarded the continent will in him find brutal cure through neglect.

    •Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation.

  • Ododo, Bello’s redemption gift to Kogi

    Ododo, Bello’s redemption gift to Kogi

    • By Emmanuel Eyitayo

    Today, January 27, Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo of Kogi State marks his first anniversary in office. Very few people who experienced a Governor Yahaya Bello, his predecessor and godfather, would ever repose any iota of possibilities in a successor that he had brought into office singlehandedly. Yet, to those who still question if good things can ever come from unbelievable places, Ododo is your answer. Despite the circumstances of his enthronement, Ododo has doused tensions, he has led with grace and honour.

    A focused leadership that prioritize repairs of critical social infrastructure. The reason cries of non-payment of salaries are no longer heard is not far-fetched as it is a problem that only regular, proper payments could ever speak to. Ododo’s name is rarely touted in everyday conversations in the state because the governor is not the only thing happening as many businesses all over towns are sprawling and rebuilding with a bursting renewed breath of life. Such is the unexpected treasure that Kogi has found in Ododo.

    From total obscurity had Yahaya Bello, the erstwhile governor, blatantly brought a seemingly rustic yet unassuming Usman Ododo to become the flag bearer of the ruling APC in the 2023 Kogi gubernatorial elections against power mongers like Edward Onoja, Asuku and others. An election he would go on to win albeit with a lot of tension and acrimony. Rumors of a divided house resultant upon the outcome of the APC primaries soon fizzled out.

    A credit to Bello that a man seen as bad can do real good once his stakes are high. A key weakness of Bello is his ever basking in the euphoria of his fiefdom of political jobbers which he had built around himself. A conspicuous testament to this was his comportments whilst he contested the APC presidential primaries against President Bola Tinubu. His estimate of himself was so bogus he not only refused to step down but also disputed the outcome for which he was prodded on as the White Lion.

    No sooner had Bello been sworn into the position that he had won only by sheer luck than he was being eulogized as “White Lion, the Godsent” by his political bootlickers. One would think he would use the power for good to the glory of God. He appointed unrefined, desperate hooligans and made them overnight millionaires with oversized office portfolios. Fear and doom reigned supreme as workers and retirees groaned and died while waiting in lines to get whatever percentage Bello in his imperial majesty would pay as their salaries each months that passed. Suffice to say Bello’s first project, and perhaps the only in all of his first year in 2016, was demolition. He demolished the roundabouts across Lokoja and never was he able to complete their rebuilding till his term would lapse.

    This is not to undermine what he would later go on to achieve in the health, education and road infrastructure but a government of decency and lucid principles would have had those flagship projects completed; the roundabouts and the plethora of gatehouses leading to the government house that they themselves had provoked.

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    Aside the general perception of Bello as highly corrupt, desperate and underperformed, there is now the ensuing epiphany of positive angle of his that Kogi people are becoming more loving of. Unlike what we have seen of the Godfatherism phenomenon across states, he seemed to have hit the choice his successor right out of the pack. He has also by the last election, by hook or by crook, destroyed the detrimental ethic dominance of a single tribe in a heterogenous polity as Kogi’s. There are those who think different because governance as is currently in Kogi is yet jaundiced as comparable to most states. Yet, one must value what one has in the now given what one had had before.

    Ododo may not come off as a super smart of the moulds of Nasir El Rufai, Babatunde Raji Fashola, Seyi Makinde, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, or the then governor Bola Tinubu, etc., yet it must not be dispelled with the wave of a hand that these are rare politicians in that they only surrounded themselves with people of ideas, character and pedigree and not political nincompoops and local thugs. This is telling when you look at what became of the careers of the cabinet members of these other governors as compared to Yahaya Bello’s. In fact, had Yahaya Bello been a talents man, he probably would not have messed himself up as he has over graft charges with the EFCC. There can be the arguments of the right people not coming into politics or government, but examples are rife of highly successful and educated Kogians who contributed immensely to Ododo’s elections but are completely sidelined for the Bello’s standards of incompetent and barely educated folks. These thugs shield the governor from meeting greater minds and personalities because Bello had rendered him rather choice-less.

    Voices of reason must be concertedly loud against building tomorrow with anything less than the best of today’s people. What makes the difference for Obasanjo, Tinubu, Saraki, Kwakwanso and El Rufai is the quality of those that they surround themselves with, not just the necessary evil of sycophants. The great states worthy of emulation in Nigeria are as great as the quality of those who lead the state. Ododo must refrain from the Bello’s culture of resentment for talents and character if his being governor would be historically indelible. This is the only way this administration and Kogi people can measure up in the comity of states. It is in the interest of all that on the subsequent anniversaries of Ododo’s government, greater positive stories would continue to be told.

    Under a year, Governor Ododo has completed the Zone8-Kaduna Road dualization, Zone8-Crusher Road, awarded close to 10billion naira rural roads, awarded the contract for the construction of Lokoja Ultra Modern Market, awarded contract for eight intra-township roads, disbursed bursary grants, personally mediated in highly sensitive inter-tribal tensions amongst his many commendable efforts. Security is no longer stronger in the news than in reality under Ododo. It is the contrast of these myriads of fair achievements against what used to be and the fact that good people or government must be commended genuinely by those affected and not those desperate for government patronage because only then would government have the good motivation to continue to do good.

    •Eyitayo writes via <oluabiajanaku@yahoo.com

  • Who will end Nigeria’s tanker horrors?

    Who will end Nigeria’s tanker horrors?

    • By Ogungbile Emmanuel Oludotun

    I have always dreaded the 150km Oyo-Ogbomoso highway, not because of its long stretches or the traffic delays, but because of the constant, nerve-wracking encounters with fuel tankers. Each time I travel that road, an unsettling fear grips me whenever I see one of these monstrous vehicles swaying on the narrow, pothole-ridden lanes. I clutch the edge of my seat, hoping that the driver, who might be exhausted from hours on the road or handling a poorly maintained vehicle, does not make one wrong move.

    There is no escaping the anxiety. These tankers, often overloaded leave little room for error. The sheer number of them on the highway is overwhelming. I recall one particular trip when a tanker swerved dangerously close to my vehicle while trying to overtake another. The sight of its massive, rust-covered body looming over us was terrifying. A single mistake, a slight miscalculation, could have turned the scene into another fiery disaster, one that would make headlines like the recent explosion in Enugu, where 15 lives were lost, or the tragic inferno in Suleija that killed over 98 people.

    The persistent horror of these accidents across Nigeria raises urgent questions: Who will end this deadly cycle? How many more lives must be lost before something changes?

    Nigeria’s tanker explosions often follow a predictable pattern.  A tanker overturns, spilling fuel onto the road. Within minutes, desperate individuals rush to the scene to scoop the valuable liquid, undeterred by the well-known risks. A single spark, a cigarette, a phone, or even static electricity, triggers an inferno, consuming everything in its path.

    Beyond fuel scooping, another recurring pattern is reckless driving by tanker operators. Many tankers operate at high speeds on poorly maintained roads, making them prone to accidents. Additionally, many of these vehicles are poorly serviced and frequently break down, creating hazards for other road users.

    Read Also: Troops recover 30,000 litres of stolen products, destroy 13 illegal refineries in Niger Delta 

    The victims are not just the scoopers. Bystanders, motorists, and emergency responders also fall prey to the uncontrollable blaze. Vehicles, houses, and businesses near the scene are often destroyed, deepening the economic impact of these disasters.

    Yet, despite the repeated carnage, many Nigerians continue to engage in this life-threatening practice, driven by poverty and fuelled by ignorance or desperation. With rising fuel prices and erratic supply, free fuel from a fallen tanker is a temptation too strong for many to resist.

    I wouldn’t want to overwhelm you with the grim details of recent tanker explosions, but the reality is undeniable. From Jigawa to Niger, Ondo to Plateau, and Ogun State, these tragedies have painted a pathetic picture of loss and devastation. Between April 2023 and January 2025, countless innocent, ignorant, and vulnerable lives have been claimed. These disasters are not isolated incidents; they are part of a deadly cycle that continues to repeat itself year after year.

    One must ask: Why do these explosions keep happening? Nigeria’s roads are notorious for their deteriorating conditions. Potholes, narrow lanes, and weak bridges make driving hazardous, especially for heavy-duty vehicles like fuel tankers. Overloaded and poorly maintained tankers frequently lose control, overturning on highways and spilling fuel. Despite existing regulations, many fuel tankers lack basic safety features such as anti-spill valves. Additionally, poorly trained and overworked drivers—some operating without valid licenses—pose serious risks. Corrupt practices within regulatory agencies allow unfit tankers and unqualified drivers to remain on the roads.

    By the time emergency responders arrive at accident scenes, fuel scooping has often already begun. The absence of proper cordoning-off measures makes it difficult to prevent large crowds from gathering, leading to mass casualties when explosions occur. With inflation at record levels and fuel prices skyrocketing, many Nigerians see free fuel as an opportunity to ease financial hardship. The lack of public awareness campaigns on the dangers of fuel scooping further exacerbates the problem.

    Following the Suleija explosion, Nigeria’s information Minster, Mohammed Idris, described the situation as “very worrying” and called for urgent measures to prevent further tragedies. Additionally, the National Orientation Agency (NOA) also launched grassroots campaigns to educate communities about the dangers of fuel scooping, stating that they would visit local governments and wards to raise awareness.

    However, for me, this response is neither satisfactory nor proactive enough. The government’s actions have been largely reactive rather than preventive. Despite repeated promises, tanker explosions remain a persistent threat, and enforcement measures have not been strong enough to deter negligence within the fuel transport industry.

    Moreover, the NOA’s delayed response raises serious concerns. Why does the agency only take action after tragedies occur? Channels TV and other media outlets have been more proactive in educating the public on the dangers of tanker accidents, something that should have been NOA’s primary responsibility. The agency must step up its efforts before more lives are lost.

    To prevent further tragedies, urgent measures must be implemented. The government must ensure that all fuel tankers are equipped with safety valves and other protective features before being allowed to transport fuel. The “Safe to Load” policy must be strictly enforced at all depots. Fixing Nigeria’s roads will also reduce the likelihood of tanker accidents. Road expansion, resurfacing, and proper maintenance should be prioritized.

    Laws criminalizing fuel scooping must be enforced to discourage reckless behaviour. Security agencies must be empowered to secure accident scenes and prevent unauthorized access. Establishing rapid-response teams capable of immediately securing accident sites could help prevent unauthorized access and save lives. Continuous nationwide education campaigns through television, radio, and social media are essential to changing public attitudes toward fuel scooping. The NOA must take its role seriously and engage in proactive public sensitization.

    With 113 lives lost in just one month and nearly 550 in the past four years, Nigeria’s tanker explosion crisis demands urgent action. How many more innocent lives must be lost before real change happens? How many more families must be shattered by preventable tragedies?

    Until concrete measures are implemented and enforced, Nigeria will continue to witness these horrific scenes of burning bodies, destroyed homes, and shattered communities.

    •Oludotun writes via <thedreamchaser65@gmail.com>

  • Trump, tariffs, and public opinion

    Trump, tariffs, and public opinion

    • By Karlyn Bowman

    In an interview in October 2024, Donald Trump mused, “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. And it’s my favorite word. It needs a public relations firm to help it.” He is right about needing a PR firm. Trump will have to convince Americans that prices won’t go up under his tariff regime, and that immediate or phased-in tariffs will be good for the economy and for US interests globally. In each of these areas, polls suggest he has work to do. But polls also show that Trump is on firm ground in two areas: historical support for mechanisms such as tariffs to protect the livelihoods of American workers and companies, and deep concern about unfair trade practices from other countries, particularly China.

    Fifty years ago, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs began exploring views about trade and tariffs in regular surveys on foreign policy attitudes. Their questionnaires have changed over time, but the emphasis Americans place “protecting the jobs of American workers” as a very important foreign policy goal has been striking. In survey after survey, this response ranked near the top of a long list of goals, occasionally rivaling objectives such as protecting America from a terrorist attack. In a 2019 essay on Trump’s trade policies, Gallup’s Lydia Saad underscored the point, noting that promoting fair trade policies was a goal “on a par with preserving national security” and ranked higher than defending allies’ security or working with the UN. 

    Even as globalization gained favor in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, Americans continued to believe tariffs were necessary. Nearly half, 49 percent, favored them in a 1998 Council poll, while 34 percent supported a free trading environment. In 2004, when the Council asked whether trade was good for different entities, solid majorities said trade was good for consumers like them (73 percent) and for American companies (59 percent), but only 38 percent said the same for job creation and 31 percent for American job security. Those views have persisted.

    Americans have also long been troubled by unfair trade practices. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Americans favored a variety of actions to address what they saw as unfair trading practices by Japan. China was rarely mentioned then, but for more than 30 years now, majorities or strong pluralities of Americans have told pollsters that China cheats. That sentiment is strong today. In an extensive exploration of trade attitudes in 2024, CATO found that 59 percent believed China engages in unfair trading practices with the US (15 percent said they were fair). Only 26 percent said Mexico’s trading practices were unfair, and 10 percent gave that response about Canada.

    Still, Trump has much work to do. Today Americans don’t see international trade as a top problem. In a new Fox News poll, 1 percent of registered voters volunteered that imposing tariffs should be Trump’s top priority (the top responses were immigration and the economy, both at 13 percent).

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    In the new Harvard CAPS/Harris polls, 52 percent of registered voters favored imposing tariffs on China to aid US manufacturing, but 48 percent were opposed. Partisan differences drove the results, with just 34 percent of Democrats but 74 percent of Republicans in support. In the poll, 40 percent, supported new tariffs on Canada and Mexico (24 percent support among Democrats, 59 percent among Republicans). And in a new AP/NORC poll, only 29 percent favored a tariff on all imports, while 46 percent were opposed.

    Before NAFTA, partisan differences on most trade issues weren’t significant. Today, attitudes are determined by whether you are on the red or blue team. In 2004, for example, partisans had similar views about whether trade was good for consumers, the economy, American companies, and American workers. By 2016, however, there were strong partisan divisions on all four. These divisions will make Trump’s sales pitch for broad tariffs hard.  

    Fears about higher prices are widespread. Seventy-five percent in the CATO poll said they were concerned about rising prices because of tariffs. In a February 2024 YouGov deep dive into trade attitudes, 61 percent said tariffs on imported good increases prices; only 23 percent said it did not. In the new Fox poll, 32 percent said imposing tariffs on imports helps the economy, while 50 percent said it hurts. Responses were virtually identical, 31 percent and 48 percent, respectively, in a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll. In his inaugural address, the President said he would “overhaul our trade system to protect American workers and families.” There is considerable uncertainty about how far Trump will go to impose tariffs, although the president has suggested that he could impose a 25 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Canada very soon. Public objections to actions that are too broad or could raise prices suggest his public relations firm has a big task ahead.

    • This article was originally published in www.aei.org

  • Much ado about GDP calculation

    Much ado about GDP calculation

    • By Segun Ajibola

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the quantum of economic activities in a country, in monetary terms, over a period of time usually one year. Real GDP eliminates the impact of inflation by applying a deflator to convert nominal or market GDP to the real figure. There are other ways of accounting for the volume of economic activities. Gross National Product (GNP) is distinguished from GDP in that while GDP speaks about the economic activities that take place in the domestic economy whether conducted by foreigners or nationals, GNP sums up the economic activities conducted by nationals of a country wherever they live across the globe. GDP finds favour among economic analysts and policy makers because it denotes the quality and quantity of economic activities supported by the domestic economy. GDP is also less cumbersome to compute as the required data are available within a domestic economy unlike GNP that involves inter-jurisdictional data gathering.

    There are three approaches to GDP computation

    –              Income Approach – This is the sum total of all incomes earned by partakers in economic activities over the period. Incomes earned by factors of production such as wages and salaries from labour, rent from land, interest from capital and profits from entrepreneurship are summed up to give the GDP figure.

    –              Output Approach – This is a summation of the monetary values of all goods and services produced in the economy over the period

    –              Expenditure Approach – This is the total sum of all expenditures on consumption, investment, government and net exports for the period.

    The three approaches must give the same figure if properly computed with minimal omissions and commissions. 

    GDP especially when measured in real terms (having eliminated the impact of inflation) and referred to as Real GDP (RGDP) is a powerful barometer for measuring the state of health of an economy. Persistent rise in RGDP denotes real growth in the economy and sets the stage for economic development. If an economy records negative growth in real GDP for two consecutive quarters, then the economy is said to be in recession. This was the case with Nigeria in 2016 and the COVID-19 induced one of 2020. If the negative growth in RGDP lingers beyond two quarters, then economic depression sets in.

    GDP is a powerful tool of analysis. In the domestic economy, it is used for planning purposes, both by the public and private sector operators. Sectoral activities are hinged on GDP figures. Budgeting and other fiscal and monetary measures take a cue from GDP figures. The international community assesses the economy based on the highlights of the GDP. International financial institutions, trading partners, creditor nations, rating agencies, etc all make use of GDP figures to determine the nature of their relationship with each country.

    Calculation of GDP, real and nominal, is hinged on what is referred to as Base Year. That is the year which prices are adopted to calculate the GDP figures in subsequent years. You therefore come across such statement as “GDP at year 2000 constant prices”. This is to say that the GDP figure quoted in say 2023 was based on the prices of goods and services as at year 2000. The base year chosen has tremendous impact on the GDP figure arrived at. A base year of say year 2010 would give higher GDP figure compared with a base year of year 2000 because of the increases in the prices of goods and services over the same period.

    Nigeria’s current GDP is calculated using 2010 as the base year. Prior to that, Nigeria was stuck with a base year of 1990, about twenty years prior. When Nigeria’s GDP was rebased in 2014 with 2010 as the base year, it catapulted the economy to number one in Africa. At the moment, Nigeria’s economy is ranked as number four in Africa, coming after Egypt, South Africa and Algeria. Nigeria is ranked 39th in the world by nominal GDP. Accordingly, Nigeria is muting the idea of moving her base year to 2019 to provide a more realistic framework for computing her GDP.

    Another critical factor for GDP ranking is the adoption of common convertible currency, the dollar to reduce GDP figures across the globe to a common denominator. Unfortunately, countries confronted with instability in foreign exchange rates, marked more by currency depreciation/devaluation are prone to negative impact on their GDP figures. Nigeria’s GDP is calculated locally in Naira. For comparative purposes, it has to be converted to US dollar at the going official exchange rate.

    Another issue is the scope of economic activities permissible in the computation of the GDP. Some economies allow underground albeit illegal economic activities in the GDP. Such activities include gambling, drug trafficking, prostitution, kidnapping, smuggling, etc. The extent to which some of these items are included in the calculation of GDP affects the size of the GDP. Countries of the world including UK, Italy, USA are reviewing the possibility of accommodating some of these otherwise ‘illegal’ activities in their GDP. Some African countries are also in the same trap.

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    In the recent past, the debate over the inclusion of the otherwise underground activities in the computation of Nigeria’s GDP gained currency. Nigeria is confronted with a large chunk of activities that is left out of the GDP computation. Many therefore believe that the GDP figure often credited to the country is grossly understated. So much is happening through black marketeering, smuggling, drug business, gambling, terrorism, etc  that are regarded as illegal and left out of the GDP. But bringing such activities into the arena of official GDP poses monumental challenges:

    –              First is the nature of the activities. There are laws of the land that prohibit any form of engagements in such activities such as Anti-Money Laundering Act, Anti-Terrorism Act, laws on illegal mining, gambling, cybercrimes, financial and economic sabotage, etc. How will these activities become permissible in the calculation of Nigeria’s GDP in the face of the deluge of laws against them?

    –              Information on such activities is held back by the players. How will the authorities on data gathering such as CBN, NBS gather data on prostitution, drug trade, etc?

    Besides the legal and technical hurdles come the social, cultural and religious inclinations against such practices. Some religious beliefs see them as haram (forbidden). Those engaged in such activities are seen as social deviants that are derided by the society. Attempts to accommodate them in GDP would be viewed as assault on the social, moral and cultural fabrics of the Nigerian society. Africa, albeit Nigeria, upholds traditional moral values and norms which majority would view as sacred and untouchable.

    To avoid such impending war on the moral values of the Nigerian people, and the tumultuous legislative journey towards legalizing the illegalities, there are several other areas the authorities can look into to reduce the glaring omissions in the Nigeria’s GDP computation. Several activities as performed by full time housewives, nannies, housemaids, houseboys, gardeners, drivers, washmen, etc are often left out of GDP computation. These are huge activities in a country like Nigeria. Goods and services consumed by the producers, such as subsistence farmers, parents serving as lesson teachers to children and wards, etc are hardly reckoned with. Operators in the informal sector are largely left out of the GDP. Market men and women in Alaba, Oyingbo, Idumota, Mile 12 markets in Lagos, Sabongari market in Kano, Onitsha, Nnewi markets, etc hardly keep records or file returns. These are glaring areas of omission in GDP computation, in addition to a deluge of others. Authorities should think out more effective ways and design more encompassing template for capturing these legal but informal economic activities to boost the actual size of the Nigeria’s GDP.

    •Professor Ajibola is Professor of Economics, Babcock University, Ogun State & Past President, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria  

  • Martin Luther King Jr. and the conscience of a nation

    Martin Luther King Jr. and the conscience of a nation

    Monday, 20 January, 2025 was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States. The day was declared a public holiday in honour of the African-American civil rights campaigner, Reverend (Dr.) Martin Luther King Jr (MLK). He was a Baptist Minister whose advocacy for equity for blacks in America was unwavering and whose eloquence was legendary. This year, rather ironically, the celebration of MLK Day coincided with the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States.

    On 4 April, 1967 at Riverside Church in New York City, in a speech entitled, “Beyond Vietnam: A time to break silence,” and delivered to a congregation of Ministers, MLK said: “I come to this magnificent house of worship tonight because my conscience leaves me no other choice. I join you in this meeting because I’m in deepest agreement with the aims and work of the organization which has brought us together: Clergy and Laymen Concerned About Vietnam. The recent statements of your executive committee are the sentiments of my own heart, and I found myself in full accord when I read its opening lines: ‘A time comes when silence is betrayal.’ And that time has come for us in relation to Vietnam.”

    MLK believed that America’s war on Vietnam was a glaring immorality, and he noted, in the speech, regarding Vietnamese women, children and the aged: “They watch as we poison their water, as we kill a million acres of their crops. They must weep as the bulldozers roar through their areas preparing to destroy the precious trees. They wander into the hospitals with at least twenty casualties from American firepower for one Vietcong-inflicted injury. So far we may have killed a million of them, mostly children. They wander into the towns and see thousands of the children, homeless, without clothes, running in packs on the streets like animals. They see the children degraded by our soldiers as they beg for food. They see the children selling their sisters to our soldiers, soliciting for their mothers.”

    He also asserted: “If we continue, there will be no doubt in my mind and in the mind of the world that we have no honorable intentions in Vietnam. If we do not stop our war against the people of Vietnam immediately, the world will be left with no other alternative than to see this as some horrible, clumsy, and deadly game we have decided to play. The world now demands a maturity of America that we may not be able to achieve. It demands that we admit that we have been wrong from the beginning of our adventure in Vietnam, that we have been detrimental to the life of the Vietnamese people.”

    In a 25 February, 1967 speech titled “Martin Luther King Jr. on the Vietnam war,” delivered in the company of four anti-war U.S. senators in Beverly Hills, California, MLK also pointed out the oddity of the war: “Poverty, urban problems and social progress generally are ignored when the guns of war become a national obsession. When it is not our security that is at stake, but questionable and vague commitments to reactionary regimes, values disintegrate into foolish and adolescent slogans. It is estimated that we spend $322,000 for each enemy we kill, while we spend in the so-called war on poverty in America only about $53.00 for each person classified as ‘poor.’ And much of that 53 dollars goes for salaries of people who are not poor. We have escalated the war in Vietnam and de-escalated the skirmish against poverty [in America].”

    MLK continued: “Through rugged determination, scientific and technological progress and dazzling achievements, America has become the richest and most powerful nation in the world. We have built machines that think and instruments that peer into the unfathomable range of interstellar space. We have built gargantuan bridges to span the seas and gigantic buildings to kiss the skies. Through our airplanes and spaceships we have dwarfed distance and placed time in chains, and through our submarines we have penetrated oceanic depths. This year our national gross product will reach the astounding figure of 780 billion dollars. All of this is a staggering picture of our great power. But honesty impels me to admit that our power has often made us arrogant. We feel that our money can do anything. We arrogantly feel that we have everything to teach other nations and nothing to learn from them.”

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    Underscoring the point, MLK noted, in a 6 February, 1968 speech in Washington, D.C. titled, “A proper sense of priorities”: “In spite of all of our scientific and technological progress we suffer from a kind of poverty of the spirit that stands in glaring contrast to all of our material abundance. … Henry David Thoreau said once something that still applies. In a very interesting dictum he talked about improved means to an unimproved end. This is a tragedy that somewhere along the way as a nation we have allowed the means by which we live to outdistance the ends for which we live. And consequently we suffer from a spiritual and moral lag that must be redeemed if we are going to survive and maintain a moral stance.

    On 17 May, 1967, in the midst of the Vietnam war and as campus protests raged, just as they had been raging against the war in Gaza until a few days ago, MLK addressed the students of the University of California at Berkeley as follows: “America has brought the nation and the world to an awe-inspiring threshold of the future … And yet we have not learned the simple art of walking the earth as brothers and sisters. … You, in a real sense, have been the conscience of the academic community and our nation.”

    Moreover, MLK said, in the “Beyond Vietnam” speech: “We still have a choice today: nonviolent coexistence or violent coannihilation. We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world, a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act, we shall surely be dragged down the long, dark, and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.”

    On racial injustice, in a speech titled “I’ve been to the mountain top,” on 3 April, 1968, in Memphis, Tennessee, MLK specified the principal goals of blacks in America: “We … are determined to gain our rightful place in God’s world. … We aren’t engaged in any negative protest and in any negative arguments with anybody. We are saying that we are determined to be men. We are determined to be people. … And that [if] we are God’s children, we don’t have to live like we are forced to live.” Moreover, in an 11 January, 1968 speech at Ohio Northern University, MLK remarked: “Victor Hugo said on one occasion that there is no greater power in all the world than an idea whose time has come. In a real sense, the idea whose time has come today is the idea of freedom and justice.” 

    Underscoring the imperative of the struggle for freedom and justice in America, MLK noted: “Over the last four years, more than 83 Negroes and white civil rights workers have been killed, brutally murdered, and not a single person has been convicted for these dastardly crimes. Some were convicted for the first time a few days ago in the murder of the three civil rights workers who were killed in Mississippi in ’64. But they were not convicted on the basis of murder. They were convicted on the basis of the federal law which is based on a conspiracy charge and with the maximum of ten years. Nobody in the state of Mississippi has been convicted for all of these murders which have taken place. Over the last three years more than 62 Negro churches have been burned to the ground in the state of Mississippi. Nothing has happened about it. It seems that they have a new motto in Mississippi now – not ‘Attend the church of your choice,’ but ‘Burn the church of your choice.’”

    On reparations for the historical injustice of slavery, MLK said, in the same Ohio speech: “The important thing that America must realize is this: That at the same time that she refused to give the black man anything, she was giving away millions of acres of land [to white peasants from Europe] in the West and the Midwest through an act of Congress. Not only did she give the land, she built land grant colleges to teach them to farm. She provided county agents to help them and … to give them expertise in farming. But not only that, the nation provided low interest rates in later years so that they could mechanize their farms. Not only that, many of these persons are being paid today not to farm, and these are many of the persons who are telling the Negro that he should lift himself by his own bootstraps.”

    MLK continued: “I guess that it is all right to tell a man to lift himself by his own bootstraps, but it is a cruel jest to say to a bootless man that he ought to lift himself by his own bootstraps. Through centuries of denial, centuries of neglect, and centuries of injustice many, many Negroes have been left bootless. This does not mean that we do nothing for ourselves. It does not mean that we should not amass our economic and political resources to reach our legitimate goals. It simply means recognizing, the nation recognizing, that it owes a great debt on the basis of the injustices of the past.”

    On a note of optimism, MLK concluded: “I believe that we can emerge from the bleak and desolate midnight of man’s inhumanity to man into the bright and glittering daybreak of freedom and justice. I haven’t lost faith in the future. I still feel that we can develop a kind of coalition of conscience, and with this coalition move on into a brighter tomorrow. … With this faith, we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. We will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood.”

    Exactly one year after he made his America-damning, conscience-pricking 4 April, 1967 “Beyond Vietnam” speech, and around twenty-four hours after his establishment-defying “I’ve been to the mountain top” speech, the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis, Tennessee, on 4 April, 1968, at the age of 39.

    May King’s dreams endure.