- CBN: economy resilient with buffers against global risks
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.
The IMF stated that the upgrade of its national growth projection for Nigeria was also based on favourable domestic situation.
The multilateral institution gave the verdict in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released yesterday at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, United States.
Nigeria’s upgrade was significant as many other economies saw significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.
Global economy growth is projected to decline from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026.
At a press briefing on the WEO, IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the Fund based its outlook for Nigeria on several improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic factors.
He said factor responsible for the higher growth revision include higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and limited exposure to higher US tariffs.
He added that the Fund also considered stability in the exchange rate, rising foreign reserves and rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as significant factors expected to propel the Nigeria economy forward in 2026.
He said: “Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape”.
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, also yesterday said fiscal and monetary reforms embarked upon by the President Bola Tinubu’s administration have fully restructured the economy, making it more resilient and with huge buffers against global risks.
Cardoso, who spoke during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, said the naira has emerged as a competitive currency while the economy has been witnessing positive trade balances.
According to him, another major pointer to the resilience of the economy is the fact that large businesses are moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.
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He said all these positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes.
Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said squabbling around global tariffs would have less impact on the Nigerian economy, given the current structure of the economy.
He said: “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.
“So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports.
“And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks”.
Cardoso noted that the G-24 has played significant role in finding solutions to global challenges, through dialogue and exchange of ideas with global financial institutions.
He pointed out that although global growth has been slow, but not as behind as would have been expected to be.
In his remarks, G-24 Chairman, Pablo Quirno noted that recent adverse shocks in global economy have left growth below pre-pandemic levels, with rising policy uncertainties creating substantial medium-term headwinds.
He said: “Emerging market and developing economies have faced deteriorating terms of trade, reduced export volumes, and declining foreign currency earnings. Many of these countries have implemented domestic policies to mitigate uncertainty, but constrained policy space underscores the urgent need for collective solutions supported by multilateral institutions”.
Providing further context on the global economic outlook, Gourinchas said that 10 to 12 per cent weakening of the dollar has helped financial conditions in many emerging market economies, especially countries that have dollar denominated debt.
He added that local currency recovery and dip in inflation figures have also been supported by weakening dollar.
He said: “The depreciation of the dollar also helps a number of these countries on inflation front, because a lot of goods are invoiced in those dollars, and so the pricing dollar remains constant, but the dollar itself is weaker. This helps to reduce input prices, and lead to drop in inflation”.
IMF Deputy Director in the Research Department, Petya Koeva Brooks, said that many low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa benefited from preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expired in September.
She explained that in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to remain subdued, unchanged in 2025 from 4.1 per cent in 2024, before picking up to 4.4 per cent in 2026.
She said: “This is an upward revision relative to the April 2025 WEO forecast by a cumulative 0.5 percentage point, but a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared with the October 2024 WEO”.
The WEO report stated that the global economy was adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures.
It projected global economy growth to slow from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 per cent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4.0 per cent.
It noted that some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, due to subsequent deals and resets.
“But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading. As a result, global growth projections in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) are revised upward relative to the April 2025 WEO but continue to mark a downward revision relative to the pre-policy-shift forecasts,” the report stated.
Likewise, inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variation across countries: above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and subdued elsewhere.
“Risks are tilted to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth. Fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial market corrections, and erosion of institutions could threaten stability,” WEO stated.
The IMF urged policymakers are urged to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.
It stated: “Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. Central bank independence should be preserved. Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled. As Chapter 2 shows, past actions to improve policy frameworks have served countries well. As Chapter 3 demonstrates, industrial policy may have a role, but full consideration should be given to opportunity costs and trade-offs involved in its use.
“The tactics that keep activity seemingly resilient in the short term, such as trade diversion and rerouting, are costly. Suboptimal reallocation of productive resources, technological decoupling, and limitations on knowledge diffusion are bound to restrain growth over the longer term”.
The Fund stated that the global economy has shown resilience to the trade policy shocks, including because these shocks materialized on a smaller scale than expected at their onset, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible in more recent data. There have been several common drivers of growth patterns across countries but also some important idiosyncratic factors.
