Americans will vote on Tuesday to decide who leads them between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Assistant Editor/ Head of Foreign Desk BOLA OLAJUWON examines the issues at stake.
Top contenders in the United States (U.S.) presidential election — President Donald Trump of Republican party and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Democratic party — with frenzy, entered into the final hours of the presidential campaign at the weekend in Midwestern states that will help decide their fates. Surprisingly, the states are grappling with severe coronavirus outbreaks that the government considers them in the “red zone”, according to news reports. Coronavirus outbreak is a key factor in the presidential election.
All out for final onslaughts hours to election
As the country reported a record number of coronavirus cases in the past week, Trump, at a rally in Michigan, continued to insist that the disease was not serious. He accused American doctors of profiteering from coronavirus deaths, claiming they were paid more if they report that patients have died of the virus. He also mocked Laura Ingraham, the Fox News host who attended the rally, for wearing a mask, saying she was being “very politically correct”.
But Biden, in Iowa, took the opposite approach, pointing out the record number of new cases in the state and noting that the Iowa State Fair had been cancelled this year for the first time since World War II. “And Donald Trump has given up,” Mr. Biden said.
At a stop in Minnesota, Biden brought up Trump’s accusation about doctors profiting from virus deaths as he assailed the president over his handling of the pandemic. “Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives,” he said. “They do their jobs. Donald Trump should stop attacking them and do his job.”
The candidates have their focus on four states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan. All four states were listed as being in the “red zone” for virus cases in a report issued by the White House coronavirus task force, which cited their high per capita rate of cases.
Former President Barack Obama and Biden also attacked Trump in their first joint appearance of 2020, with the former president joking that Trump was “traumatised” by the low turnout at his childhood birthday parties. Biden suggested he would have bopped Trump in their younger days.
Biden and Obama began Saturday with a drive-in rally in Flint in a bid to maximise turnout. Later, they held another drive-in rally in Detroit, where Stevie Wonder performed. The Biden campaign also announced that Obama would campaign in Atlanta and South Florida today.
Their visit to Michigan also included a clutch shot by Obama, who drained a three-pointer in a school gym in Flint and then walked off the court. “That’s what I do,” he said.
92 million Americans vote early
One major trend in this election is Americans voting early. As of yesterday, 92,038,417 ballots have already been cast by voters – about one-third of them in-person – 33,141,215 – and the rest – 58,897202 – by mail.
Trump and Biden, and their respective running mates – Mike Pence and Kamala Harris – have also voted early. In Texas, early votes have surpassed the total number of votes cast in the last general election.
On a national level, voters have already cast 66.8%of the total votes counted in the 2016 election, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
How the election will be decided
Besides COVID-19 pandemic, other issues to decide the 2020 election are the American economy, abortion rights, same-sex marriage, healthcare, migration and religious freedom.
The U.S. election is decided by the Electoral College made up of 538 persons and not a popular vote, which obtained in most countries, according to a report by the News Agency of Nigeria. Technically, therefore, only 538 ‘electors’ will vote for Biden and Trump in the presidential election. A candidate must score 270 Electoral College votes, representing 50 per cent plus one vote or a simple majority vote, the report added.
Electors are allocated based on the number of people each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, plus two for the number of senators each state has in the Senate. By the day after the election, which is November 4, the president-elect would already be known through exit polling.
The Electoral College would, however, officially meet in December to formally vote for the candidates.
What the electorate would be doing on the day of the election (on November 3) would be to choose who the electors are going to be.
The ballot on Tuesday will indicate “Electors for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris; and Electors for Donald Trump, Mike Pence. The ballot will not list the names of the candidates, but “electors for’’.
The official paper ballots are thereafter batched up and sent to the House of Representatives and the Clerk of the House of Representatives will collect them.
On January 19, at a joint session of the Congress, the ballots will be opened up and officially counted at the House of Representatives – this process is merely ceremonial because it is the act of casting the ballot on Nov. 3 by the public that produces the president.
The Clerk of the House of Representatives will then communicate to the winner, intimating the candidate that he or she has been elected the president with the number of votes. The Clerk will also ask the winner to arrive the Capitol Hill on Jan. 20 to be sworn-in, NAN reported.
However, in a situation where no candidate wins 270, the House of Representatives elects the president, choosing from the three candidates who received the most Electoral College votes. The Senate would elect the vice-president from the remaining top two candidates.
Trump: achievements and failures
Trump’s most lasting impact on the country is reshaping of the federal judiciary. He has installed three Supreme Court justices and 220 judges overall to the federal bench. By December, Trump nominees made up roughly 25% of all U.S. circuit court judges, according to an analysis by The Washington Post. He has appointed 53 judges on the 13 U.S. circuit courts. The courts get the final say in U.S. politics, setting precedents that can shape the country for years to come. Even if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, his presidency will continue to have an impact on the direction of the U.S. due to the sheer number of conservative federal judges he’s installed.
In signing a $738 billion defence spending bill just a few days before Christmas, Trump officially established the sixth branch of the U.S. Armed Forces — the Space Force. The Space Force is the first new military service since the US Air Force was created in 1947.
Despite its name, the new branch has not been established to protect the planet from potential extraterrestrial threats but is tasked with protecting the U.S. military’s assets in space.
He has also described his accomplishment in tax reform as the biggest overhaul to the nation’s tax code in three decades. But critics argued it was a windfall for massive corporations at the expense of the middle class. Supporters of the tax cuts contended it would unleash an economic bonanza.
Trump signed the First Step Act into law in December 2018, marking the first legislative victory in years for advocates seeking to reform the criminal justice system.
The president has also touted as part of his achievements that he defeated ISIS’s caliphate and killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
ISIS shocked the world in 2014 when it took over a large swath of territory across Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate.
Trump, according to media reports, has at times falsely claimed that ISIS is defeated, embellishing the extent of the U.S. military’s success against the terrorist organisation during his presidency. Though the terrorist group has lost its territory — its so-called caliphate — it’s still estimated to have up to 18,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria. A U.S. raid led to the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Failures
Trump’s response to a deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, remains one of the most controversial moments in his presidency.
The president was flayed by Republicans and Democrats alike over his response and his failure to offer a swift and forceful condemnation of white supremacist violence.
In the wake of the brutal death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police and the nationwide protests that followed, Trump also failed to rise to the occasion. He’s done far more to divide the country than bring it together.
Trump has frequently employed racist rhetoric during his presidency, but especially during times of heightened racial tensions.
Trump has been among the most controversial presidents in U.S. history, and just the third commander-in-chief to be impeached. His handling of the COVID-19 pandemic hangs heavily over the presidential election. His handling of COVID-19 will go down as one of the worst disasters in U.S. history, with many dead and millions unemployed.
He repeatedly flouts public health guidance and his own CDC, holding packed events during the pandemic and mocking those who wear masks. He announced he had contracted the virus in early October.
Though no U.S. president has ever been charged with a criminal offence, Trump has survived one impeachment, 26 accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated 4,000 lawsuits. That run of good luck may end, perhaps brutally, if he loses the election. The president and those around him will surely know that if he loses this week’s presidential election. He will also lose the immunity that he has been accustomed to during his tenure. Trump has a long-running dispute with the Internal Revenue Service over claims of tax dodging and could face prosecution if he fails to be re-elected.
Europe is already edging away from the United States, regardless of election winner, judging from Trump attitude to the bloc. America’s global image has declined significantly under Trump, who has repeatedly insulted key U.S. allies while being friendly with dictators.
Can Biden survive his baggage?
Most of Biden’s political achievements are linked to Obama’s records during their joint presidency, especially Obamacare and others. However, the potent attack against him is the focus on alleged corrupt dealings by his son, Hunter. He is also linked with benefitting from his son’s business deals. Trump said he had achieved more during his period in office than Biden’s record of achievements in 47 years. He has also been accused of supporting legislation, which ended up locking many blacks in jails.
Some also think Biden’s political record will come back to haunt him. His last viable opponent in Democrat presidential primary race, Bernie Sanders, highlighted the former U.S. vice-president’s political baggage from a long career as a Washington insider – and tar him as out of touch with the mainstream of the modern Democratic Party.
Sanders said on Social security: “Here’s the deal: Joe Biden has repeatedly advocated for cuts to Social Security. I’ve fought my whole career to protect and expand it.”
But when challenged on this record on the campaign trail, Biden denied backing Social Security cuts. His campaign has said that, if elected, Biden would expand the programme, paying for it through a tax on the wealthy.
The former vice president has also been attacked on abortion rights. “Joe Biden in the past has voted for what is called the Hyde Amendment, that said that women could not use Medicaid dollars to protect their reproductive rights and get an abortion,” Sanders said.
On trade deals, Biden has said he stands by his vote for the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), which critics said hollowed-out manufacturing in the U.S. However, Biden has argued that he is a “fair trader”, who believes that “we should treat other countries in a way they treat us”, rather than a “free trader”.
Can late Republican surge secure Trump win?
With Biden seemingly ahead in several crucial polls, just how close is this election likely to be? Well, it could be extremely close, according to a new YouGov poll that suggests that a surge of late Republican turnout could be enough to swing the race in the President’s favour. The newfound Christian leaders’ support for Trump may also be crucial in the election’s outcome.
Polls study found that Biden supporters have been much more proactive with early voting, but Republicans tend to turn out on Election Day, meaning that if Trump can maximise his support, he is more than capable of winning a second term. It’s very much still in the balance, as CBS News puts it: “Biden has a lead, but we still don’t know how long the track is”.
Their ‘surge scenario’ shows how Trump could fail to win the hotly-contested northern states of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan yet still notch up 279 Electoral College votes and clinch victory.
Speaking in an interview with The Nation, a Nigerian journalist working in the U.S., Prudence Arobani, said: “Biden is leading in polls and can easily be predicted to win the popular votes. However, the peculiarities of American presidential election, which bases victory on Electoral College, makes one to be cautious about predicting an outright win for Biden. It happened between Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 when all the polls and analyses by all major networks, except Fox News, gave Clinton a landslide and Trump no chance.
The unprecedented number of mailed-in votes this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic has also brought some technical and legal challenges to the election. There have been court cases that said the mailed-in ballots cannot be counted after 7pm on November 3. That’s what Biden is holding on to to defeat Trump, hoping that mailed-in ballots could still be counted up till November 9. But Supreme Court will likely decide whatever disagreements brought about on the validity of the mailed-in ballots. And Trump already has an advantage at the court with six conservatives against three liberals.
“So, this election is going to be one of the closest and whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a bitter one.
“Trump’s support base is like a cult and most of his votes are projected to come on the election day. So, if courts rule that the election will be based on the final tabulation on Tuesday, Trump may still win.
“So, the polls are not reliable as the battleground states are still very tight.”
