The Nation Newspaper

Category: Insight

  • Ondo vows to fix federal highways

    Damisi Ojo, Akure

     

    In Ondo State, some of the federal roads are Ipele-Isua-Akunnu, Ikare-Arigidi-Okeagbe-Oyin Akoko, Owo-Oka-Isua-Akoko, Ikare-Ado Ekiti and Ore-Sagamu. The Nation investigation shows that the condition of majority of these roads is deplorable.

    Travelers are therefore groaning on daily basis, calling on the federal government to at least rehabilitate the roads.

    Some road users alleged that if the roads have been maintained, most of the road accidents, especially in Akoko axis, would have been drastically reduced, as it would have served as alternative roads to the clumsy Oka Akoko-Abuja road.

    In fact, Ondo State Government has expressed displeasure at the condition of the federal roads in the state. It vowed to fix them for the benefit of the people in the sunshine state.

    Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Saka Yusuf- Ogunleye, expressed displeasure over the roads during an inspection of the failed portion of the roads

    Ogunleye noted that though the roads are owned by the federal government, they are being used by the people of the state, hence the need for the inspection.

    He said” The present government of Oluwarotimi Akeredolu cannot fold its arms and watch these roads become impassable. We have decided to intervene on behalf of our people. Our people remain the priority. Anything that affects them must be tackled. We have to make our roads safe regardless of maybe they are federal roads or not,” he said.

    Read Also: Guard killed in Ondo community

    He explained that the state government was compiling the list of the roads to be fixed across the state, adding that the state government had earlier intervened in Owo/Ikare and Owo/Ose roads, which are all federal roads.

    He said that the state government was going to replicate the gesture in all other federal roads that are in poor state.

    He said the state government intended to liase with the Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) on the need for the federal government to fix the roads.

  • ‘Poor funding cause of dreadful federal roads in Yobe’

     Duku Joel, Damaturu

     

    THE recent allocation of over 200 billion naira for road projects in the 2020 budget is a clear indication that the federal government wants to change the narrative of the tales of bad highways in the country.

    Even with that whooping allocation, the Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, has maintained that the money is not enough to fund road projects in the country.

    The ministry in its wisdom has therefore resolved not to embark on new projects until the old ones are completed.

    Prior to this year’s huge budgetary allocation to works, experts said the funding has been inadequate thus causing serious dearth in the sector.

    In Yobe State for instance, the past administration has even moved ahead to construct some federal roads like part of the Damaturu road. The Yobe State Government has constructed about 77 kilometers of the road from Damaturu Madza boarder town and the remaining 54km of the road to Biu is a nightmare.

    The substantial portion of Nguru -Gashua road is still in very bad shape.

    Below are some of the federal roads in Yobe:

    Potiskum  Kyari- Bauchi  Road; Buachi road is in use.

    Kaliyari- Damaturu road is just awarded by the Federal Government but we observed that the contractor was yet to mobilise to site as at the time of filing in this report.

    As for Kano  Potiskum  Damaturu  Maiduguri dualization, the section 4 (Potiskum-Damaturu) is 78% completed.

    Damaturu- Biu Road is about 77 kilometers constructed by Yobe State Government but the remaining 54 km is still in very bad shape.

    Gashua/Bayari- phase I and II are being handled by RRC and ECECC.

    Potiskum  Ngalda Gombe border Road is undergoing emergency repairs while the Nguru  Gashua Road phase of the project has been completed. Also, the second phase, which is being handled by mother cat, is ongoing.

    We observed that Potiskum Jakusko/Gashua is also undergoing emergency repairs by Kawagarbo Construction and M Contractors.

    The dualization of Kano-Maiduguri road project is sub-divided into five sections, the Potiskum-Damaturu is section IV and it starts from Potiskum Junction linking Mamudo, Damagum, Garin Bingel, Dogon Kuka and Ngelzarma to Damaturu.

    When The Nation visited the site of the project in Damaturu, construction work from Potiskum to Damaturu was almost completed from the N4 billion SUKUK funding from the Federal Government except the bypass in Damaturu and the two roundabouts in Damaturu. In Potiskum however, the bypass is completed and is being put in use.

    An Engineer supervising the section of the project, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told our correspondent that the initial project has a total of 96.240 kilometers but, the federal government later approved a length of 18km out of Damaturu and Potiskum bypasses to be included in the project.

    “The project started in 2006 and the substantial completion date of the project was 10th December 2013 but here we are today with the Boko Haram crisis and the paucity of funds and other issues surrounding the project.

    If you go further at the Maiduguri section of the road, the project was completely abandoned due to the Boko Haram wahala. Though work has resumed from that side, the security of the area is very uncertain,” he said.

    The Nation gathered that the Kano/Maiduguri highway dualization project, awarded in 2006 by the then Obasanjo administration stretching over 500 kilometres from linking two major geo-political zones of the northwest and the northeast. The project links Kano to Jigawa in the North West, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno states to the northeast.

    The project is divided into five sections with five different contractors executing each of the sections.

    Section A covers Kano-Kiyawa in Jigawa State, B covers Kiyawa-Azare in Bauchi State, C covers Azare-Potiskum in Yobe State while sections D and E cover Potiskum-Damaturu and Damaturu-Maiduguri respectively.

    Speaking on the state of some federal roads in Yobe State, the Controller, Federal Ministry of Works, Yobe, Engr. Akinmade Babalola, said some emergency repairs were recently carried out on some of the roads.

    He noted that Yobe has about 15 federal roads stretching to   883.4 kilometers in the state.

    “We have just completed some emergency repairs on the following federal roads in Yobe State: Damaturu to Gashua, Gashua to Nguru as well as from Potiskum to Ngalda border in Gombe State”, Babalola disclosed.

    While praising the efforts of the federal government to change the narrative in the road infrastructure of the country, the Federal Controller however called for more funding. He attributed the dearth in the sector to inadequate budgetary allocations over the years.

    Babalola however said insecurity is no longer a challenge as Yobe is at the moment enjoying peace.

     

  • Ditches, potholes dot Jaji, Zango-Haya roads

     Abdulgafar Alabelewe, Kaduna

     

    Abuja-Kaduna to Kano Road is the gateway to Northwest geo-politica zone, which serves a lot of economic purposes, including movement of goods and services, as well as people. The road is noted for heavy traffic during the weekends, as people who work and live in the capital city of Abuja ply the road to visit their families and relatives during the weekend.

    Considering its importance however, the road which is supposed to be in good shape has continued to move from bad to worse, particularly, the Kaduna-Kano stretch, leading to the number of road traffic crashes which have claimed many lives in the recent past along the road.

    While the stretch between Kawo in Kaduna North Local Government Area to Rigachikun, a distance of about four kilometres is passable with only two ignorable potholes, the remaining part of the road which spans 230 kilometers is filled with potholes, especially the Kaduna to Kano lane. Some of the potholes are so big that vehicles have to spend time meandering through them.

    However, work has since commenced on the reconstruction of Abuja-Kaduna-Kano road, as the construction company handling the road was seen blocking one lane at several sections from Abuja to Kano.

    But, Kaduna-Jos Road is in more deplorable state. In fact, it is more deadly; one considering that it is a single carriage way and that its potholes are so close that motorists have to dangerously snake through them.

    The worst of the federal roads within the Kaduna axis however is the Nnamdi Azikiwe Expressway, about 10 kilometres bye pass road, that connects travellers from the Southern part of the country, Abuja and some parts of North-central to other states of Northwest.

    Our correspondent who embarked on an assessment tour of the above mentioned roads observed that aside potholes, some portions of the roads have been left deformed and dangerous to unsuspecting motorists, as running over them in high speed could lead to accident.

    On Kaduna-Kano highway, portions yet to be touched by the reconstruction are dotted with many potholes and any driver plying the road for the first time needs to keep right. This is because most of the tyre-bursting potholes and ditches are either at the centre of the road or the right side. Therefore, attempts to maneuver through them can lead to accident, mainly because such potholes mostly leave no gap between the road and the median separator, and also because another vehicle may be coming behind and making it difficult to quickly change lane.

    Though there are signs of patches in the past, there are five dangerous ditches and several other potholes between Jaji and Zango-Haya. But from Zango-Haya to Zaria is reasonably okay.

    Kaduna-Jos road, through Saminaka and Pambegua, is a single carriage way terribly dotted with potholes. Kaduna to Turunku is fair. Turunku to Saminaka to Jos requires expertise maneuvering to sail through without crash or costly vehicle damages.

    For the Nnamdi Azikiwe Express way, The Nation’s check revealed that the road which was repaired about two years ago has almost returned to its old bad state.

    Kaduna-Birnin Gwari road, which is the shortest route to Kwara, Oyo and Lagos from Kaduna, has been abandoned due to its bad state, which has apparently made it possible for bandits to operate freely on the road.

    However, few commercial motorists who ply the road to Birnin Gwari and Kontagora in Niger State have dangerous potholes and armed criminals to contend with.

     

  • Northwest, Northeast, Southwest federal highways also deplorable

    Our correspondents in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest zones report that most of the federal highways in the zones are in disgraceful condition, a situation that has forced some state governors to take over repairs or reconstruction of some federal highways

     

    As we stated in the first instalment of this nationwide report, when we covered the Southeast geo-political zone, our investigation on the state of federal roads shows that most of the major highways across the country are currently in a deplorable condition.

    In this instalment, our correspondents reported that the highways in the Northwest, Northeast and South-west are also bitter tales of woes, anguish, frustration and pain as was the case in Southeast, South-south and Northcentral zones earlier reported.

    From Yobe State for example, our correspondent reports that the state government has vowed to save motorists by constructing and rehabilitating the damaged federal highways. According to the report, the state government “has constructed about 77 kilometers of the road from Damaturu Madza boarder town” but “the remaining 54km of the road to Biu is a still a nightmare.”

    We gathered that the state of insecurity has also had its toll on lack of maintenance that have helped to worsen the condition of the federal roads in this area, especially towards Maiduguri in Borno State, where Boko Haram activities have contributed negatively. Our correspondent quoted a top engineer supervising part of the road projects in the area as saying, “If you go further at the Maiduguri section of the road, the project was completely abandoned due to the Boko Haram wahala. Though work has resumed from that side, the security of the area is very uncertain,” he lamented.

    The report from the Southwest is equally disheartening. For example, our correspondent from Ogun State reports that “From the Sagamu inter – change to Ajebandele(Ogun State) – the boundary between Ogun state and her neighbouring Ondo State, the dual carriage way of 100km each, are replete with failed sections, rough surfaces, potholes, craters, broken down concrete medians and other physical obstructions from over grown weeds, shrubs, trees,  abandoned broken down vehicles, slabs of stones and iron rods that stick out dangerously on both sides of the highway.”

     

  • Nigerian Navy showcases local ship building ability

    The Nigerian Navy recently deployed its second indigenously built Seaward Defence Boat (SDB) NNS KARADUWA to lead the contingent to Ghana. It was more than a solidarity visit. It was indeed, a test of the Navy’s warship building capability. Precious Igbonwelundu who was on the trip reports.

    The joy of every country is not just to have a military that can defend her from external aggression but also one which drives innovations and inventions that in-turn create employment for the populace. But this has eluded Nigeria for several decades with her military not only incapacitated in terms of manufacturing own weapons and driving a virile defence industry; but also stock in the web of recycling, ordering outdated hardware from Excess Defence Article of the United States of America (US) and other first world countries with throat-cutting maintenance requirements.

    Thus, it came as a pleasant surprise to many on June 7, 2012, when then President Goodluck Jonathan launched NNS ANDONI, the country’s first locally built warship- a 31m SDB with a speed of 25km, armament including 30mm main gun, two 12.7mm and two 40mm Automatic Grenade Launcher (AGL) as well as an embarked RHIB.

    A sea going vessel that had since its enlistment into the fleet of the NN partook in various operations and exercises; NNS ANDONI, as the pride of the nation, could however, not perform one of the major functions of navies- Port Calls to other naval forces aimed at strengthening military and diplomatic ties- a dream the NN finally realised with the successful voyage to and from Ghana, of ANDONI’s sister vessel-NNS KARADUWA-deployed alongside a fast patrol boat NNS EKULU to the West African country in celebration of the Ghanaian Navy’s 60th anniversary.

    An improvement from NNS ANDONI, KARADUWA is a 38.9 meter-long boat designated as SDB II which was commissioned in December 2016 by President Muhammadu Buhari. It has a draught of 4.1m, an overall breath of 7.5m, maximum speed of 22 knots and an endurance of 12 days at a cruising speed of 12 knots. KARADUWA has a crew capacity of 37 and is armed with a remote controlled 20mm gun, six 12.7 machine guns and one 40mm AGL.

    It was therefore, not out of place the fanfare that greeted the successful journey of the warships captained by Commanders Kennedy Mallum and Andrew Zidon at Sekondi and Tema Ports in Ghana on July 22 – 24, as well as the NNS BEECROFT jetty where they were warmly received on their return by the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC) Western Naval Command (WNC) Rear Admiral Oladele Daji on July 29.

    Applause for Nigerian Navy

    At the International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference (IMDEC) held in Accra, Ghana, to commemorate the country’s Navy’s 60th anniversary, the Nigerian Navy was the toast of participants for exhibiting her capacity to build warships and patrol boats that have endurance, easy to maintain and are fit-for-purpose in tackling maritime challenges in Gulf of Guinea (GOG) region.

    While in Ghana, the NN ships hosted a cocktail for visiting IMDEC participants including Commander, US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Admiral James Foggo, Commander in Chief of the Brazilian Navy Fleet, Vice Admiral Jose Menezes; Chief of Ivorian Naval Staff as well as top brass of the GN and other visiting navies from Europe, America and Africa who lauded NN’s drive and commitment in strengthening maritime defence in the GOG.

    The ships also received a delegation of Nigerians resident in Ghana led by the Nigerian High Commissioner, Ambassador Femi Abikoye, who praised the NN for making the country proud, noting that the visit would no doubt foster friendly ties between both countries.

    A key take-away from the journey was the expression of interest by South African, Indian and Nigerian companies to partner the NN in building Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) and other warships in Nigeria, to serve the regional market.

    Commenting on the strides of the NN in ship building, Superintendent, Naval Dockyard Limited (NDL) Commodore Levi Kohath, said the service has made commendable progress, noting that the country’s plan with the acquisition of the Naval Shipyard in Port Harcourt and Naval Dockyard in Lagos was for the development of indigenous capacity in ships maintenance.

    “The Federal Government’s primary objective with these strategic acquisitions was the enhancement of Nigeria’s strategic self-reliance in the maintenance of naval and merchant vessels. Today, the Naval Shipyard in Port Harcourt and Naval Dockyard in Lagos are at the forefront of local shipbuilding efforts in the country.

    “While the Naval Shipyard Limited has built barges, tugboats and ferries for the Nigerian Navy and other users in the maritime industry, the Naval Dockyard Limited has constructed SDBs, Glass Reinforced Plastic boats and a house boat for the NN,” he said.

    Kohath said the NDL was well equipped to take up different engineering challenges and was opened to business with the public as a limited liability company. He said the dockyard has three graving docks, a slipway, many workshops that support shipbuilding and maintenance activities.

    “These include the Heavy Engineering Workshop, Mechanical Workshop, Carpentry Workshop, Steel Workshop, Platters Workshop, Foundry, Engine Test Bay, Electrical Workshop, Effectors and Arsenal Workshop amongst others.

    “These facilities make the Naval Dockyard Limited an all integrated engineering enterprise that is ready to take up different engineering challenges. Being a limited liability company, the dockyard is also open to business with the public.

    “The first shipbuilding activity at the NDL was the construction of the Seaward Defence Boat I (SDB I). This engineering feat was followed by the construction of SDB II and currently SDB III with a 43m length.

    “The efforts of the Chief of the Naval Staff (CNS), Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas, to promote local content in naval vessels construction paid off with the approval of the President for the construction of SDB III. The keel of the vessel was laid by President Muhammadu Buhari himself.

    “The ship is currently under construction in the Twin Dock of the Naval Dockyard. The hull shell plating and superstructure are being fabricated concurrently. On completion, the vessel will be outfitted before being subjected to sea trials.

    “Apart from these ships, the dockyard had previously constructed boats and tugboats for Nigerian Navy operations including undertaking other vessel construction works,” he said.

    Aside the above listed, the NDL recently designed and constructed a 25-man capacity combat houseboat built to support the Choke Point Management Regime, a strategy adopted to tackle illegal oil bunkering and crude oil theft at sea.

    The houseboat which was commissioned on May 31, Kohath said, was first of its kind and solely a patent of the Naval Dockyard. “Furthermore, the Dockyard in partnership with HABTOB Engineering Services is currently constructing 2 x 500 Tons self-propelled barges for the Nigerian Navy. One of the barges is being built to supply Automotive Gas Oil to naval vessels at sea while the second barge will supply fresh water.” This is projected to act as a force multiplier for the NN in her bid to continually maintain presence at sea. It is worthy to also add that the dockyard collaborated with the Epenal Group to construct more than 70 GRP Riverine Patrol Boats (RPB) with outboard engines of various sizes.

    “These vessels have since been deployed for patrols within Nigeria’s maritime domain. These engineering feats demonstrate that the nation is making steady progress in her indigenous shipbuilding efforts,” said the Commodore Superintendent.

    The feats recorded notwithstanding, it is believed that challenges such as inactive steel sector, epileptic power supply, low industrial/technological base and dearth of skilled manpower were impeding the growth of the defence industry sector in the country, especially with regards to ship building.

    According to Kohath, the NDL relies on importation of steel sheets- an essential component in vessel construction works- to be able to deliver on set task.

    “This increases cost and time on task for construction works. The reactivation of the moribund Ajaokuta Steel rolling and milling company would enhance local shipbuilding efforts in Nigeria.

    “The low industrial/technological base of the country is another challenge begging for attention. No dockyard can have all the skills or equipment required to build a vessel. To thrive as an industry and conserve the much needed foreign reserves, the local industrial/technological base must be enhanced to provide specialised services.

    “Currently, most of the machineries and equipment that make up ships systems are sourced abroad. Skilled manpower is also required for precision jobs where the dockyard lacks those skills. These areas which ought to be provided locally to support local shipbuilding efforts are in short supply, hence, a heavy recourse to foreign companies.

    “The challenges can be surmounted with the right national cohesion to implement policies that will guide the country towards technological self-reliance. There needs to be concerted training on skills that enhance shipbuilding and outfitting of vessels.

    “The nation could also attract foreign companies that produce ship systems to set up plants in Nigeria with attached technological transfer clauses. Dockyards in Nigeria would need to pursue skills acquisition programmes and collaborations with reputable foreign dockyards to imbibe modern ways of construction.

    “Shipbuilding is a capital intensive venture that would require the support of the government for sustenance. In this regard, there is need to sustain the local shipbuilding efforts of the Nigerian Navy in order to leverage on the experience garnered from the success stories. The government could award a contract for the Nigerian Navy to build 10 SDBs.

    “This will enable procurement of necessary equipment for large scale construction and further enhance the capabilities of the Naval Dockyard Limited. Research and development would also need to be well funded in support of shipbuilding. It is pertinent to point out that shipbuilding if well-coordinated would impact on other areas of technological advancement and promote national development as a whole.”

  • ‘Society treats us as burden and charity case’

    Following the recent signing into law of the belated Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, by President Muhammadu Buhari, TAIWO ALIMI, gives an insight into the struggle and why Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) and advocates think it is only a scratch on the surface.

    Disability Rights advocate, Ekaete Judith Umoh is positive more than 25million Nigerians are living with one disability or the other.

    This is the figure World Health Organisation (WHO) released to the world seven years ago concerning the number of Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) in Nigeria.

    Of the astounding figure, only a handful has successfully crawled out to live their dreams, and live it big. “We may have broken limbs but our hearts are not broken,” Umoh said before she jetted out of Nigeria’s shore for another disability conference in New York, United States of America (USA) in June.

    Umoh suffered polio as a child but with the support of her family and community, the physical complexity did not define her personality. “I come from a community where the word ‘disable’ is not used. I was brought up in Sapele, Delta State, and when you have anybody with a condition they refer to him or her with respect; ‘that woman wey leg dey pain’ (The woman with a leg pain) or ‘that man wey eye dey pain (the man with a bad eye).  So, she grew up not seeing herself with a deformity or inferior in any way to anyone.

    She went on to the University to study Microbiology, found her passion for disability and gender advocacy and vigorously pursued it upon graduation when she founded Family Centered Initiative for Challenged Persons in 2000.

    Umoh is today a respected member of the society and she’s recognized around the world for her work. She is the Chair of Disable People International (African Region), an advocacy network founded in 1981 in Canada for the rights of challenged persons. She sits in the executive council of African Disability Forum, and vice-chair of West Africa Federation for the Disabled. She is also the first female president of Joint National Association of Persons Living with Disability.

    Like Umoh, Grace Jerry, Cobhams Asuquo and Cosmos Okoli have also defied the label ‘disable’ to reach beyond their goals and dreams.

    Jerry was not born with disability. She was hit by a commercial motorcyclist and lost her two legs in the process. The man she was engaged to walked away after the accident but Jerry did not allow that to affect her, rather she used the situation to lift herself. She started an NGO ‘Inclusive Friends’ and it has become rallying point for PWDs. Inclusive Friends played a pivotal role in the recent electoral reforms which allows thousands of PWDs to exercise their civic rights whereby INEC made provision for braille and magnifying glasses for the visually impaired to cast their votes. Her works have been extolled by the U.S government and Nelson Mandela Foundation.

    Asuquo was born blind. His self-belief and trust in humanity put him through elementary school to the University. He found music and he is now famous and churning out more famous tunes. The musician, producer and songwriter has become a reference point for Nigerian music and mentor to up and coming youngsters. He has worked with and produced acclaimed albums by Asa, Omawumi, Banky W, Tiwa Savage, Dare Art-Alade and Waje to mention but a few.

    Okoli succumbed to polio at four years old. At present, he has a multimillion empire, and is spending millions of Naira to help other PWDs. He was among the first set of special athlete to represent his country at international tournaments and rose to become the president, Special Sports Federation. Okoli who is an Officer of the Order of the Niger (OON), founded Mobility Aids and Appliances Research and Development Center, (MAARDEC), an NGO through which he is realising his vision of providing physically challenged persons with mobility aid to move, run and drive their cars amongst other things.

    However, for the a small number of that are living their dreams, millions more PWDs are living in penury, denied primary rights to education, shelter, basic health care, transportation and feeding.

    In fact, the 25 million figure, according to Kingsley Bangwell, executive director/founder of Abuja based NGO; Youngsters Development Initiative (YDI), is under estimated. “The World Bank report says that not less than 15 percent of a given population lives with a disability or the other. If that is correct and given Nigeria’s over 200m population, an accurate estimate is about 30million. In fact, in Nigeria where we have Boko Haram doing constant havoc in the north, and polio and river blindness elsewhere in the country, we should be in excess of 30million. Globally, we used to be 600million but now we are about one billion. It means for every seven persons, one lives with disability. Disability is more than the physical challenge you see.”

    According to the U.S Individual With Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), disability is categorized under 14 definitions namely: Autism, Deaf-Blindness, Deafness, Developmental Delay, Emotional Disturbance, Hearing Impairment, Intellectual Disability (Mental Retardation), Multiple Disabilities, Orthopedic Impairment, Other Health Impairment (asthma, attention deficit disorder or attention, deficit hyperactivity disorder, diabetes, epilepsy, a heart condition, hemophilia, lead poisoning, leukemia, nephritis, rheumatic fever, sickle cell anemia, and Tourette syndrome), Specific Learning Disability, Speech or Language Impairment, Traumatic Brain Injury and Visual Impairment.

    The question is how is government and society catering for the needs of these 30million or more citizens?

    DISABILITIES RIGHTS

    Until recently, precisely January 15, 2019, there is no body of law in the Nigerian constitution or laws deliberately put together to protect the rights of PWDs. The bill which has lingered in the National Assembly for 20 years was passed by the 8th Senate on March 28, 2018. In December, it was transmitted to the president for assent for the fourth time since 1999. Two former presidents before President Muhammadu Buhari had shunned it. This is in spite of the fact that 32 African countries had ratified the 2007 UN Convention on Rights of Disabilities and have laws on Disabilities Rights since 2012. Some of them are Ghana, Botswana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Gabon, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Chad, Zambia, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Also 119 countries of the world have established laws.

    It is sufficient to add that the Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, 2018 was belated in coming.  Umoh said: “For many of us that have been on it for a very long I would say we were positively surprised because we have been closer to it in the past and it never happened. It was divinely arranged.”

    “For a long time disability issue is seen by the society as welfare and charity case. They do not it as developmental issue and thst we can add value to the system. They perceive us as burdens and treat us as such. ‘Give them wheel chair, give them used cloths, give them crutches and bags of rice.’ That was our lot. They do not see us as human beings and citizens of this country. They see us as persons to be segmented because we just drain the economy. If they had seen us as persons with potentials that can add value to Nigeria they would have done things differently. However, it is the society that is losing by not seeing the potentials in us.”

    Now that the Bill has been signed, Bangwell believed the struggle has just begun. “We cannot afford to go to sleep. The law is an instrument for PWDs community to demand and enforce their rights. It is a legal instrument that gives power. Next thing is to begin to create awareness among PWDs, government and the society at large. The public and private sector need to get the law and study it well. The law has about 15 sections and 58 clauses dealing with access, facility, transport, finance, education, participation in politics and other aspect. It is framework to push for our rights.”

    So, what do PWDs really want?

    EQUAL OPPORTUNITY

    “I strongly believe that PWDs must have their place in the society. They are entitled to whatever rights everybody has. My business is for PWDs to have equal opportunities and right as everyone in the society,” said Umoh who has gone on to obtain a Master’s degree in Education and Social Work.

    According to Asuquo, one of the things that helped him become a self-assuring young man is the opportunity to live blind.

    He said: “My blindness does not have any physical, psychological or social meaning.  Since I’ve never experienced sight, I wasn’t aware that I was without sight. And so, I indulged in the innocence of young boyhood. I ran downstairs, jumped over gutters, played hard, fought even harder, and got into any imaginable trouble that a skinny young child could get into. On a number of occasions, I ran into walls, people, and into furniture.”

    FAMILY SUPPORT

    Umoh believed that the family support she got as a child immensely helped her in adulthood.

    “When I had polio as a child, I did not suffer any discrimination. My parents helped me. My father would ensure that I was comfortable. I was allowed to play like other kids. My father would gladly show me off to everyone. When he’s going off to play table tennis he would take me along and show me off to his friends. So family has a big role to play. I’ve seen instance where having a child with disability ends a marriage. The husband would simply chase the wife and the child out saying it is bad omen.”

    Okoli said the support of his parents equally lifted him. “But I came from a very wonderful family where I was treated like every other child so I never condemned myself as someone different from others. My father didn’t know I could cope with formal education. He had planned that I was going to learn shoe making. He set aside a piece of land for me to start a workshop. When my elder brother started school, I called my father a year after and told him that I wanted to go to school because I couldn’t hear him talk about my own uniform and school bag like he did for my brother. That was when my father who expressed surprise at my question said okay, you would start school tomorrow. I continued to pester him about my uniform and how I would be going to school. He budged one day and I started school. I was always on top of the class and he was happy.”

    SCHOOL SUPPORT

    The hidden discrimination against PWDs starts from home and snowballs in the schools, Umoh noted.

    “I recalled while at the University of Ibadan there was a special section for women with disabilities. As soon as I checked into the block and noticed this condition, I returned to the student affairs officer and told him to take me out. I also recalled him saying ‘look at this disabled person. This is how they make trouble. You should be grateful we give you a space instead of disturbing my life. Go, that is the accommodation reserved for you.’ But I stood my ground. I saw it as a rehabilitation institute. Why were we segregated from others in the name of comfort? And I recalled telling him that I take my lectures on the third floor and why don’t they bring all the lecture rooms to the first floor for our comfort. I stood my ground and I was always going back to the man until he just got tired of me and negotiated with me. So, we struck a deal that I would use the room for only one semester and be relocated if I still don’t like it the following semester. After that I allowed him to rest and went my way. In fact, he confessed to me that for a fresher he respected my gut for challenging the status quo.”

    While at the University of Lagos, Okoli said he almost dropped out but for inner strength and conviction. “It was tough for me. Lack of funds and other challenges almost made me drop out. The biggest challenge I had was access within the University. There were a lot of architectural barriers and I took a strong decision to die in the university rather than leave without my certificate because at a point it was so tough that I decided to take out a full month to reassess the fact whether I should continue or leave. After the soul searching, I realized that if I left the university at that time, I would not be able to remove the word ‘Drop Out’ from my CV. Secondly, I realised that the whole world of persons with disabilities inspired to further their education because of me would change.”

    SOCIETAL SUPPORT

    Umoh also had the support based of a community that acknowledges disability as not devoid of ability. “I come from Sapele, Delta State community where the word ‘disable’ is not use. When you have anyone with a condition they refer to him or her with respect; ‘that woman wey leg dey pain’ (The woman with a leg pain) or ‘that man wey eye dey pain (the man with a bad eye). We did not a have a word to label people. In-fact it was at University of Ibadan that I heard the word ‘disable’ for the very first time. That episode opened my eyes to the segregation going on. Can people really go through this kind of discrimination because of a disability?”

    For Asuquo, growing up in the Army Barrack and among peers willing to support encouraged him. “As a blind kid I made up my mind to trust people around me, sometimes, even when I have no reason to. My older brother taught me how to jump over open street gutters so anytime I was walking with friends and they inform me that we were approaching a gutter, I would jump  no questions asked. Pretty soon, I discovered that my friends were telling me to jump even when there were no gutters just so they could have a laugh. But even after I found out, I still continued to jump. I chose to trust them because quite honestly, staying out of the smelly sewage gutters was very important to me.”

    GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT

    But for governmental support Okoli said his journey to stardom would have been more difficult. By his second year in the University, his family was finding it extremely difficult to pay his fees. “That was when I discovered special sports. I was fortunate to have an opportunity to travel out of the country in 1987 for wheelchair table tennis competition. Since it was the first time that Nigeria was to feature in those sports, I was an observer and didn’t play. When we returned, my appeal to Anambra State Government for support had yielded fruits and I was given a refund and I became very buoyant.”

    That was the support Okoli needed to pass through University and later set up his business empire.

    Umoh is of the opinion that governmental support should not be to segregate but to integrate. “My time in that segregated room in the University taught me new things about PWDs. They were always moody and almost in a state of depression. While I love to dance and laugh a lot, they were just always down and that made me to appreciate my parents more and began to think of how they can be helped. What government should do is to unsure that within the context of a community, public schools, private schools, hospitals and public transportation, PWDs are made to co-exist with able people. What they lack physically, they have in abundance upstairs and should not be seen as different or inferior. That is what we want from government. That is how to give us equal opportunity.”

    To push home this point, Paralympics star athlete Kehinde Paul wondered why the disabilities bill took so long in coming. “At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have shown the government on several occasions that we are able and capable.”

    Paul was an enigma at Rio Paralympics games, where he broke the world record and set it twice with a 220KG lift. He was among 23 athletes that came back with 12 medals and put Nigeria in 14th position on overall table. The best for Nigeria since her debut at the 1992 Barcelona Games. This is more than all gold medals of Nigeria’s able bodied team to all Olympics put together. It stood at three after the Rio Olympics.

    Paul continued: “At the Barcelona Games with six athletes, we got three gold medals. At the Atlanta 1996 Games, Nigeria won eight medals-three gold, two silver and three bronze. At Sydney 2000, we took our medals to 13-seven gold, one silver and five bronze medals while at Athens 2004 Nigeria’s team of 14 athletes finished 18th on the medals table with five gold, four silver and three bronze medals.”

    In Beijing in 2008, Nigeria presented a team of 28 athletes, competed in four sports and finished 30th overall with four gold, four silver and one bronze medals. This was followed by the London 2012 Paralympics Games, where the Nigerian contingent also finished well in 22nd position with six gold, five silver and two bronze medals.

    “What else do they want from us?” Paul asked. “We have split our blood for our country and the least they can do for us is to believe in us and give us a chance to live a better life. We desire right living so as to give more to our country.”

  • BUHARI’S MINISTERS: How they fared (1)

    As President Muhammadu Buhari holds a valedictory session with his cabinet on May 22, the fate of outgoing ministers is shaky because it is almost certain that new blood will be injected into the system. In this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, with Nduka Chiejina, Tony Akowe, John Ofikhenua, Franca Ochigbo, Frank Ikpefan, Faith Yahaya, Grace Obike examine the performance of the ministers, highlighting those with a chance of getting into the second term cabinet.

    In the next few days, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) will be dissolved, leaving ministers to move into another phase of life where the sirens will no longer wail, phones will ring less often and the retinue of aides will desert them. For almost four years, these ministers managed the government machinery with President Muhammadu Buhari.

    It has, however, been a tale of mixed fortunes because not all those who started the race with the president could complete it due to exigencies. While ex-Minister Minister of State for Labour and Productivity, Mr. James Ocholi (SAN) died in a car crash alongside his wife and son, the immediate past Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun was consumed by the scandal surrounding forgery of her National Youth Service Corps Scheme (NYSC) discharge certificate and Aisha Al-Hassan, (Women Affairs and Social Development) hastily resigned from office to pursue her gubernatorial ambition.

    A few others moved up the ladder – among them Amina Mohammed (Minister for Environment) who bagged the post of the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations;  Dr. Kayode Fayemi, (Solid Minerals Development,) who is now the governor of Ekiti State; Khadija Abba-Ibrahim, (Minister of State for Foreign Affairs) returned to her first love (politics)  and got elected as a member of the House of Representatives; and Ibrahim Jibril (Minister of State for Environment) earned a royal call when he was chosen as the Emir of Nasarawa.

    Although Kemi Adeosun’s forgery case was a sore point for Buhari’s government, the top notch appointments secured by some ministers pointed to the fact that it was not a cabinet of deadwoods after all. What cast doubts about the team was the six-month delay in assembling them. The delay in their selection also exerted much pressure on the outgoing ministers to the extent that many of them could not find their feet early enough.

    Despite complaints about Buhari’s tight fiscal policies, about 15 ministers out of 30 left in the cabinet have been implicated in intense lobbying to return to the cabinet.  It was gathered that most of them have become latter-day converts the president’s style of shrewdness, accountability and transparency.

    A source said: “About 15 ministers have been agitating for a second chance because some of them who faltered in office are claiming that they have learnt their lessons.

    “All these ministerial aspirants have been mounting pressure on the members of the president’s kitchen cabinet in order to be picked.”

    But the stark reality is that not all will move to the ‘Next Level’ with Buhari. Factors which will determine their level are performance in office, political leverage, security reports on their conduct, and the president’s personal evaluation of them.

     

    Zainab Ahmed: In the shadow of Kemi Adeosun

    Since the inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration on May 29, 2015, the Federal Ministry of Finance has had two ministers. The first was Kemi Adeosun who focused her attention on the initiation, development and aggressive implementation of innovative fiscal operations, management policies and initiatives aimed at redressing the economic fortunes of the country. The other minister is Zainab Ahmed, who is still learning the ropes. So far, she has demonstrated lack of innovation and a weak grasp of what is expected of the ministry. Her natural terrain is the extractive sector where she is highly respected.

    Under Adeosun, the following initiatives were introduced: Family Homes Fund; Whistle-blower Policy; Efficiency Unit; Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme; Road Trust Fund; Development Bank of Nigeria; Asset Tracking and Management Project; Fiscal Sustainability Plans and Budget Support Facility for States; Genuine implementation of Treasury Single Accounts and hitherto hidden government monies; Clearing of inherited pension arrears and the Presidential Initiative on Continuous Audit (PICA). That is a rate of 3.27 initiatives every month while she was in office. Her successor has spent eight months and has not initiated anything new to her name but has piggy-backed on the ideas of those before her.

    As a way of encouraging public participation in the fight against corruption, Kemi Adeosun championed the introduction of the landmark Whistle-blower policy, designed to support the fight against graft by exposing financial crimes and rewarding credible informants of such malfeasance.

    The Federal Government on June 29, 2017 launched a revolutionary and bold reform initiative – the Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS), through which citizens (tax payers) are offered a window of opportunity to regularize their tax status relating to previous tax periods, without incurring penalties. This implementation of this tax initiative, also championed by Adeosun, resulted in an increase in the number of tax payers from 10 million before the assumption of office by the incumbent Administration to 14 million in 2016 and 19.3 million in 2018.

    It is instructive to note that some local and foreign companies are now disposed to the VAIDS initiative, and have started to regularize their tax status.

    Under Adeosun, the government settled outstanding pension arrears up to March, 2017. The sum of 41.5 billion was released by the Federal Ministry of Finance to pay off outstanding pensions arrears of 2014, 2015 and 2016, while the sum of N12.5 billion was paid out to clear pension claims for up to March, 2017, bringing the total payment of outstanding pension arrears by the current administration to over N54 billion – an unprecedented feat, which has been commended by the various workers’ unions.

    When Ahmed came on board, the staff of defunct Nigeria Airways got a reprieve and have been coming to the ministry to conduct verification exercises to enable them get paid their entitlements.

    On Thursday she said government has worked out financial implications of the new national minimum wage, by the presidential committee that was set up and they have submitted their report to the president and the president directed the report to the appropriate quarters.

    However, as Finance Minister she never expressed an opinion on the likely fallout or effect on the economy if an additional N1 trillion from a lean purse is diverted to settle wages and salaries.

    She said: “We have looked at the report and what we are working on now is how we can finance the new minimum wage.” This is suggesting that government went into negotiations with labour ill-equipped with sound economic arguments either for or against the minimum wage.

    At the 2016 Annual IMF/World Bank Meetings, Adeosun led the Nigerian delegation that negotiated with the World Bank Group (WBG), African Development Bank (ADB) and European Investment Bank (EIB) for the take-off loan of USD1.3 billion (N396.5 billion) for the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN). The CBN approved the operating license of the Bank in March 2017, subject to the provision of a minimum capital requirement of N100 billion and other conditions, which have since been satisfied.

    On the other hand, Zainab Ahmed has been to the same global meeting twice and her impact has never been felt. The DBN is to provide loans to all sectors of the economy, including, manufacturing, services and other industries not currently served by existing development banks, thereby filling an important gap in the provision of finance to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). As a wholesale bank, the DBN lends wholesale to microfinance banks, which in turn on-lend medium to long-term loans to MSMEs. Already, the DBN has a N5 billion line of credit to be accessed by MSMEs through its partner institutions.

    Nigeria’s total debt package now stands at N24.3 trillion.  During Adeosun’s tenure, the Debt Management Office (DMO) commenced the bold initiative of refinancing high cost short-term domestic debt with relatively cheaper and longer tenured external debt, as part of its overall Debt Management Strategy of progressively achieving an optimal debt portfolio composition of 60:40 for Domestic and External debt respectively. Thus far, Nigeria has refinanced costly and short-tenured domestic bonds with over USD3 billion longer-tenored Eurobonds. The implementation of the debt refinancing strategy process has already led to a reduction in the cost of domestic borrowing, which has also reduced the cost of the country’s debt portfolio. In addition, it is also expected that lower domestic rates will benefit corporate borrowers in accessing domestic capital from the banks.

    To Zainab Ahmed, her position is that Nigeria’s ballooning debt profile was a deliberate initiative on the part of government to get the country out of recession. Her defence of the huge national debt has not convinced Nigerians that the government knows what it is doing to curtail a galloping debt burden that will be passed on to the future generation.

    Budget contribution figures in her tenure indicated that service wide votes was removed from her ministry completely and domiciled in Budget and National planning making ministry of finance a mere cashier of government funds rather than an effective and efficient manager of the nation’s finances .In 2018 our budgeted revenue was N7.2 trillion . This is against the realized figure of N3.96 trillion, signifying a negative variance of 45%. Despite this shortfall we have been able to fully pay salaries & service 100% of our debt. We have also released seven months overhead for 2018, two months for 2019, and N2.079trillion capital expenditure as at 14th May 2019.

    The Buhari administration has promised to take Nigeria to the “next level” in the next four years. If truly it wants to make a lasting impression on the economy, the administration has to drop all weak links in its economic agenda. After the elections comes the serious business of running the country, the government needs a finance minister that is proactive and one that can take bold new fiscal decisions to set the country on solid economic ground not one that will pushed and pulled in all directions.

    Having enjoyed her brief tenure as the nation’s exchequer, Zainab Ahmed wants to come back. A major push for her retention is coming from some northern governors. It is uncertain if Buhari will allow them to make input into this critical appointment.

     

    Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu: Reformer who got a second chance

     

    The Minister of State, Petroleum Resources, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu came in with much credibility into the government having risen to the peak in Mobil Oil.

    Several times he had attempted to be a minister under ex-President Goodluck Jonathan but his “integrity” is antithetical to the corrupt practices that dotted the petroleum sector during that ill-fated administration.

    An egghead, the minister, who started as the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), is one of the reformers in Buhari’s cabinet. His achievements in office inspire confidence despite the fact that he ran into troubled waters with some of his pronouncements.

    The greatest of his landmarks was the renegotiation of the Joint Ventures Cash Calls (JCC) exit from which the Federal Government has paid $1.5billion out of the over $5billion arrears. The measure has boosted the international oil companies’ investment confidence in the Nigerian oil and gas sector.

    To address corruption in the system, he introduced the Direct Sale and Direct Purchase (DSDP) scheme in exchange of crude oil for petroleum products from the refiners. The measure which he used to replace the previous Offshore Processing Agreement (OPA) has saved Nigeria over $2.2billion since its introduction in 2016.

    Under his watch, the sector was able to bring the menacing militant groups in the Niger Delta under control with the high level decision such as the relocation of the head offices of the IOCs from Lagos to the Niger Delta. The same measure also culminated in the quenching of the unending protest over the Ogoniland clean-up with the announcement and subsequent implementation of the UNEP blueprint on the region.

    Prior to his assumption of office, the nation was always notorious for incessant fuel scarcity as a result of the Petroleum Support Scheme that was milking over N1.3trillion from the nation’s coffer annually with little or no product to show for it. Kachikwu, however, introduced the price modulation formula that absolved the fuel queues overnight.

    Although the price of the Premium Motor Spirit was to rise from about N97 per litre to a maximum band of N145, the petrol stations are constantly wet with product. Besides, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has successfully remained the lone importer of petrol as private importers have shirked their responsibility owing to the escalating forex challenges. Although analysts have criticized the resultant under- recovery measure that they depict as a return to petrol subsidy, Nigeria has not run out of product under Kachikwu’s watch which has reduced product diversion to adjoining countries.

    The volume of oil production has also increased from less than 1.86million barrel per day in 2016 to 2.019million barrels per day in last year. The sector has succeeded in reducing the contracting circle of upstream operation from 24 months to nine months. This sector has reduced gas flare by 75 per cent as a result of the introduction of commercial gas utilization.

    During his tenure, Nigeria flagged-off the construction of the first modular refinery by (Azikel Petroleum Ltd) in Bayelsa State. Besides, two others commenced their modular refineries construction.

    His intellectual and private sector background, inability to understand the politics of being in power and sheer inexperience in cabinet intrigues, caused him to run into stormy weather along the line. His spat with NNPC GMD, Maikanti Baru, over alleged $25billion curious contracts was a sore point.

    As a sitting minister, he blew the whistle on the $25billion contracts to the embarrassment of the government in which he served. The projects were as follows:  Crude Term Contracts – value at over $10b; $5b DSDP contracts – value over $5b; AKK pipeline contract – approximately $3b; various financing allocation funding contracts with the NOCs – value over $3bn; and various NPDC production service contracts – value at over $3bn – $4b.

    In other climes, with no law violated by the NNPC and Baru, the minister would have been fired or voluntarily resigned because his memo impugned the probity agenda of Buhari. But the President saw the crisis as a product of the rivalry between Kachikwu and Baru and gave the minister a second chance.

    Left to Kachikwu, he wants to remain in the cabinet but his albatross remains the memo which breached cabinet ethics. While some forces in the kitchen cabinet do not want his sin forgiven, the IOCs and major oil producing countries are pushing for his retention. A few others are recommending a hybrid appointment of serving as a Special Adviser on Petroleum Resources with a powerful mandate.  It is left to Buhari to decide.

     

    Okechukwu Enelamah: Initiatives still at gestational stage

    The mandate of the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment is creating an enabling business environment for businesses to thrive; implementing the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP); attracting long-term local and foreign investment; encouraging expansion of MSMEs; and promotion of global and regional value chains that enhance trade.

    Except for the sudden introduction of TraderMoni  and MarketMoni through one of its agencies, the Bank of Industry, the tenure of the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Okechukwu Enelamah would have gone unnoticed because most of his laudable initiatives are still at gestational stages.

    But TraderMoni and MarketMoni were populist and they attracted overwhelming appeal at the grassroots and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) became jittery and branded them as vote buying initiatives in the run-up to the recent general elections.

    The four years of Enelamah has seen a lot of imbalance between Nigeria and its major trading countries. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics confirmed that Nigeria recorded N6.83trn worth of trade deficit with China in the last four years. As at 2015-2018 Nigeria imported goods worth N7.65tn from China and exported N818.46bn worth of goods to China.

    The minister created the Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiation (NOTN) thereby making the Trade Department in the ministry completely redundant. Staff in the department complained that the action of the minister has killed the department and rendered commercial trade officers redundant.

    To his credit, the minister’s recorded progress on Ease of Doing Business reforms, which was also spearheaded by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC). These reforms led to a reduction of challenges encountered by SMEs and other businesses in areas such as starting a business; access to credit; paying of taxes, enforcing contracts or trading within and across borders, and investor-interest in Nigeria has increased.

    Shortly after his inauguration, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Okechukwu Enelamah set out a key goal to improve Nigeria’s business environment for sustainable economic growth. Backed by Buhari’s commitment to a more conducive and attractive business environment in Nigeria, the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) was established under the chairmanship of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.  As Vice Chairman of PEBEC, the minister is actively involved in Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to achieve a sub-100 ranking by the World Bank on Ease of Doing Business.

    Under his watch, the country rose 24 places from 169 to 145 in the World Bank’s 2018 Ease of Doing Business Index; its highest jump in the history of the rankings. And although Nigeria ranks 146 in the latest Doing Business rankings, the country’s Distance-to-Frontier (DTF) score, which is the absolute metric, improved from 51.52 in Doing Business 2018 to 52.89 in 2019.

    One of the silent reforms of the ministry is in intellectual property, – especially issues such as trademarks and patents – areas key to ensuring an enabling environment for business. For the first time since the Trademarks Act came into force some 51 years ago, an Annual Report on Trademarks has been issued.

    Total files digitised as at October 31, 2018 was 266,318: made up of 16,650 files from the Registry of Patents and Designs; and 249,668 files from the Registry of Trademarks.

    To accelerate industrial development, the ministry, which has embarked on  an aggressive implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan, initiated the establishment of the Nigeria Industrial Policy and Competitiveness Advisory Council aimed at increasing the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP by 250 per cent over a five-year period, and establish Nigeria as the manufacturing hub for West Africa, by implementing initiatives aimed at accelerating industrialization,  leveraging private sector expertise and capital.

    The Council has made many high-level interventions to address industrial sector issues such as electricity supply, broadband penetration and access roads. A recent example is the Road Infrastructure Development and Refurbishment Investment Tax Credit Scheme, under which the private sector has committed to sponsoring the construction or rehabilitation of road projects across the country.

    Acknowledging the major role of Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises in industrial and economic development, the Ministry made noticeable improvement in access to finance for this category of investors.

    Numbering over 77 million, MSMEs contribute almost half of Nigeria’s GDP and employ over 60 million people.

    In the last four years, there have been sustained efforts to build capacity, increase access to finance and eliminate bottlenecks to conducting business in Nigeria. Some of the achievements in support of MSMES include the inauguration of the National Council on Micro Small & Medium Enterprises (NCMES) for more focus on MSMES.  The Bank of Industry, which is an agency of the Ministry, provides relatively low-interest rate and innovative financing solutions as incentives towards stimulating interest and growth of entrepreneurship.

    The bank’s disbursements are to 11 sectors, including food processing, agro- processing, healthcare and petrochemicals, solid minerals, N-Power, the creative industry and gender business amongst others.

    Between January 2015 and October 2018, the bank disbursed a total of N487.5 billion to 3,334 large, medium and small enterprises.

    The ₦112billion Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) fund, which is part of the ₦500billion National Social Investment Programme, is aimed at providing microcredit facilities to market women, traders, artisans, farmers and agricultural workers at zero per cent interest rate. GEEP is estimated to reach 1million beneficiaries annually. So far about ₦37.72 billion has been disbursed to 1,266 enterprises.

    The Bank introduced the TraderMoni product for micro-businesses across value chain clusters – motorcycle riders, food vendors and petty traders. The fund has eased access to suitable finance by these categories of businesses which in turn will enable them to grow their businesses.

    It also initiated MarketMoni to provide financial aid for the under-banked and unbanked. This objective is being achieved by providing easy and quick loans at no interest rate.

    Under the GEM project, a total of NGN 3.7b (USD $12.2m) has been disbursed to 910 grantees via the grant windows, while over 21,191 MSMEs have received technical assistance.

    Recent achievements include the attraction of US$73.08 billion proposed investments for 65 projects in 18 states and the FCT; and the signing of MoUs with United Kingdom, Germany, and China for investment commitments totalling several billions of dollars.

    To accelerate the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan, a project to develop world-class Special Economic Zones to position Nigeria as the pre-eminent manufacturing hub in sub-Saharan Africa, and a major exporter of made in Nigeria goods and services regionally and globally, was initiated.

    Called Project MINE, (Made in Nigeria for Exports), it is to aid structural transformation of the Nigerian economy by increasing the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP to 20 per cent by 2025; contribute to sustainable inclusive growth by creating 1.5 million new direct manufacturing jobs in the initial phase; and to increase and diversify non-oil foreign exchange earnings to at least US$30bn annually by 2025, by increasing manufacturing sector exports.

    But Enelamah’s Achilles Heel was the recent uncovering of the inclusion of illegal financing of a privately owned company with N42 billion in the 2019 Budget proposal submitted for consideration to the National Assembly.

    The vote was under an item tagged Nigeria Special Economic Zone Company. Although Enelamah was able to explain that it was the government’s contribution to a partnership project, his argument swayed some and left others cold.

     

    Chris Ngige: New minimum wage as landmark

    The Ministry and Labour and Employment is no doubt one of the most difficult ministries to manage in view of its strategic roles in fostering industrial harmony in the country. Incessant strike action occasioned by agitation from workers as a result of failure of employers, especially the government to keep its own side of collective bargaining has often given the ministry so much to deal with.

    With the advent of the Buhari government, worker had much hope that things will go differently as a result of the personality of the President and his change agenda. But the question is: Can workers beat their chest and say they are satisfied with the performance of the ministry?

    The first step taken when the minister was inaugurated gave workers lots of hope. He had put in place a committee headed by his Minister of State, the late James Ocholi, to look into some of the collective bargaining agreements as well as to try to harmonize some existing labour laws. The death of Ocholi stalled the ideas.

    Almost four years after, Ngige can boast of a few achievements, the major one being the new minimum wage of N30,000 for Nigerian workers and the fact that no worker in the public service has lost his job, especially getting employers in the oil and gas sector not to sack workers.

    Despite the avoidable controversy that almost destroyed a rather seamless process of new minimum wage negotiation, the minister was able to lead the entire process to conclusion. This was a plus for him, even though he almost allowed the governors sway him. Workers saw him then as trying to dance to the tune of governors.

    Another achievement of the minister is the fact that for the first time, Nigeria is occupying three slots on the Governing Board of the International Labour Organization with one Regular and two deputies. He has been able to convince other African Labour Ministers to concede the Regular membership representing Government on the board to Nigeria when the next election takes place in 2020.

    One key institution that would have lessened the burden of the minister, which he failed to put in place, is the Labour Advisory Council. For several years, Labour has agitated for the constitution of the council which is a creation of law. But till date, members of the council have not been nominated and there is no hope in sight for the constitution of the council before the end of this tenure.

    However, the failure of government to implement agreement reached with trade unions is seen a minus for him, even though he does not have direct control over such implementations. Two cases stood out during Ngige’s tenure.

    First is the case of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and other teaching unions. The second is the crisis in the health sector which saw the government withholding salaries of union members for one and half months since April 2018. Interestingly, after entering into agreement with the workers and failed to implement same, the Minister declared a no-work, no-pay policy when the workers decided to down tools. In what appeared to be a double standard, the government did not apply the same policy to striking lecturers when they embarked on strike for almost four months.

    For this, workers in the health sector see him as a minister with preference for doctors. They accused him of conniving with his health counterpart to deny them their rights. Even when the matter went to the Industrial Court who then referred it to arbitration, the government side led by the Federal Ministry of Health refused to appear for arbitration, leaving the matter pending.

    The delay in the inauguration of the board of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) cast a lot of shadow on the Minister. However, while the minister may have acted in good faith, the delay by the Presidency in responding to the issue blew a rather simple matter it out of proportion. The government failed to respond to series of letters from organized labour on the matter, thereby putting the minister in a tight corner. The government’s response after the workers rightly or wrongly picketed his house was belated.

    The refusal by the ministry to register another trade centre called the United Labour Congress is seen as a big plus for him. The ULC broke out of the Nigeria Labour Congress after its 2015 delegates’ conference and claimed to have met all legal requirements for registration as a trade body. But in accordance with the law, the minister has refused to register ULC.

    In all, the Minister of Labour excelled in tackling labour crises save for the ASUU strike action which lingered unnecessarily. The fact that he has been able to give the country a positive image within the continent is a plus for him.

    The hurdles against his return as a minister are include the perception that he is rigid to a fault; inability to deliver Anambra State to the APC during the last elections and some controversial comments which have spiral effects on the perception of Buhari administration.

     

    Rotimi Amaechi: Shaping rail as Buhari administration’s defining legacy

    When ex-Governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, was appointed the Minister of Transportation, there were issues on whether or not he will be able to cope. But the minister has been one of the defining success beacons of the Buhari administration. He has not only introduced transparency into the ministry’s activities, he has been one of the few restless cabinet members with visible landmark projects. His passion for railway development has made him to embark on risky shuttles to see most projects through.

    His plans for railway modernization in Nigeria could be classified into three namely completed, ongoing and upcoming projects. The completed Standard Gauge Railway Projects are the Abuja (Idu) to Kaduna and Segment 1 of Lagos to Kano standard gauge railway modernization project). The total length of the Abuja to Kaduna is 186.50KM.

    The Ongoing Standard Gauge Railway Projects include the 156.5kilometre Lagos to Ibadan Double Track Standard Gauge Railway project with extension to Apapa Port Complex (Segment 1 of Lagos to Kano Standard Gauge Railway Modernization Project).

    As the tenure of all cabinet members expires soon, Amaechi embarked on his last monthly inspection tour to assess the progress of work on the Lagos-Ibadan rail project. As at the last inspection track laying had reached 123kilometres. The journey that led to laying of tracks up to 123km was achieved through the tireless effort of the minister.

    For those who were part of the process, the minister embarked on over 22 inspections to achieve the level of work. Those who were on the monthly trips drove through bushes, dusty paths and forest day and night.

    As part of his achievements, the Federal Government, it was learnt, is on the verge of possible signing of the co-financing loan agreement to kick off the project of the outstanding portion of Lagos-Kano rail line (Ibadan-Abuja and Kaduna-Kano approximately 1000km).

    The prioritized upcoming railway projects include Lagos to Calabar Coastal Railway Line with branch line from Benin City to Onitsha (1431.5Km); Kano to Dayi to Kastina to Maradi (354km), and Railway Industrial Park in Port Harcourt D. Port Harcourt to Maiduguri Standard Gauge Railway Line (2,058.838Km).

    The main features for the Port Harcourt- Maiduguri  are -Port Harcourt – Enugu -Akwanga – Gombe – Maiduguri (1305.638Km), Bonny -Port Harcourt (67.0Km); Port Harcourt to Owerri to Awka to Enugu (266.0Km); Enugu to Abakaliki (61.4Km); Akwanga to Abuja (142.0Km); Gombe to Yola and Gombe to Jalingo (216.8Km).

    The government explained that the reasons for prioritizing the Coastal, Port Harcourt to Maiduguri and Kano to Maradi Rail Line was because the proposed three rail lines are amongst the key railway corridors in the 25 Year Strategic Vision Plan of the Nigerian Railway development.

    The proposed railway project when completed will connect 11 states – Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Edo, Anambra, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River) in the southern region of the country from western flank to eastern flank of Nigeria.

    It will also connect 17 states which include: Rivers, Abia, Enugu, Benue, Nassarawa, Kaduna, Plateau, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe and Borno from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere of eastern flank of Nigeria. The branch lines will connect all the nearby states to the main line and traverse the following states: Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi, Adamawa, Taraba and FCT, Abuja while it will also connect the Kano to Jibiya in Maradi (another commercial hub of Niger Republic).

    To reduce the hardship of travelers who use the train service from Kaduna to Abuja, the minister ordered that two additional coaches be deployed to the corridor from Warri-Itakpe route. In addition to this, the minister during his recent visit to China hinted that the country will take delivery of 10 coaches by June. Under his watch also, the Kaduna Inland Dry Port has commenced the cargo delivery service from the port to Lagos.

    Amaechi has a unique can-do spirit and he is well-loved by the President. If merit is the order of the day, he has towered above his fellow ministers to earn a reappointment into the cabinet. His achievements in office were used as campaign talking points by Buhari during the last presidential election.

    On the political front, however, it has been more of a mixed bag for the minister. Irreconcilable differences between him and certain individuals with the Rivers State chapter of the APC made the party to lose the right to participate in the general elections. It was a miscalculation by the APC family which left the President and many leaders of the party bewildered.

    But that downside is countered by the fact that Amaechi successfully reprised his 2015 role as Director-General of the Buhari presidential campaign at this year’s general election. That triumph, along with his ministerial accomplishments, stands him in good stead of a return to the cabinet.

    Hadi Sirika: Meeting his modest targets

    The Minister of State for Aviation, Sen. Hadi Sirika had one ambition when he was appointed in 2015 to keep the nation’s airspace safe and guarantee smooth flights. He said he was not interested in building cosmetic airport terminals without safe passage for air travellers.

    He has lived up to his target because airlines are more safety conscious than it used to be. For four years that he has been in charge, no single domestic airline accident was recorded.

    He said: “In the areas of State Safety Programmes, Nigeria has attained Level 3 out of 4 levels, thereby moving Nigeria from red to green on the ICAO dashboard. In line with ICAO and WMO standards, in July 2017, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency acquired ISO9001 2015 certificate, which qualifies it to offer aeronautical meteorological services. The agency became the first in Africa to be so certified.”

    He placed premium on Growing and Sustaining the Domestic Aviation Industry; Re-introduction of zero import duties on aircraft, engine and introduction of same for spare parts. He also floated an intervention to rescue Arik Air and Aero Contractors from total collapse. He ensured the completion of the Kano Tower Automated Air Traffic Management and Meteorological Systems, installed the Instrument Landing Systems (ILS) Category II (CAT II), Doppler VORs (DVORs), Distance Measuring Equipment (DMEs) at four airports namely Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt and Kaduna. Those of Minna, Jos, Yola, Maiduguri, Benin and Akure are still on-going and nearing completion.

    In line with his commitment to precautionary measures, Sirika on March 7, 2017 shutdown the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja for the rehabilitation of its dilapidated 4,000m-plus runway for six weeks. It was a bold and courageous decision by Sirika. Also, the laws are strictly applied for the rich and the poor. Those jet owners, who have abused the system by not paying accruing parking fees, were sanctioned.

  • Reviving the comatose railways

    In this report, Precious Igbonwelundu takes a look at how to bring back rail transportation in the country

    Mohammed Ndume is a large scale vegetable farmer in Plateau State; he needs access to a wider market for his goods, preferably down south. Being delicate perishable items, the absence of a viable means of transporting them down forces Ndume to either sell his tomatoes and vegetables in the farm or harvest them earlier than the due time for onward movement in trucks, which spend several days on the highways. No thanks to dilapidated roads, bedlam, armed banditry and other circumstances beyond his control. His vegetables thus arrive at the intended markets in bad shape and are sold at clearance rates with attendant losses.

    Like Ndume, Chinedu Aniocha, an Onitsha based importer is yet to receive his consignments two months after they arrived at the Apapa Lagos Port. The reason is not far-fetched; the haulage company he contracted to lift his 30ft container from the Wharf has all their trucks trapped in the Oshodi-Apapa Expressway bedlam for several weeks just to return empty containers of earlier shipments to the shipping companies. With neither a functional water nor rail transport system, Aniocha is left with no other choice than wait for mother luck to smile on him soon.

    The above scenarios depict the agonies of small and medium scale business owners who daily bear the brunt of the dysfunctional railway transportation. From Lagos to Borno; Onitsha to Kano; Zamfara to Cross River and Port Harcourt to Jos, most small and medium scale businesses that would have ordinarily thrived, boost employment and contribute greatly to Internally Generated Revenues of States and Local Governments have been forced to either wind up or their owners relocated to cities like Lagos and Abuja thus fuelling congestion.

    The abandonment of railways by successive governments left in its wake, millions of lost jobs including those of food vendors, artisans, local transport operators and petty traders who make ends meet from legitimate transactions with passengers using the trains across the rail stations. As a result of this, crime became the order of day until it assumed threatening dimensions along major highways like Abuja-Kaduna, Jos-Abuja, Lagos-Onitsha, East-West Road, Owerri-Port Harcourt, among others.

    Despite various security operations being executed by the police and the military in all affected areas, the criminality had continued unabated as tales by victims of highway kidnappings and armed banditry daily flood the media space. These menaces further heightened the clamour for functional railways, as most travellers longed for alternative means of transportation to spare them the horrors on the roads.

    Hence, it came as a relief when the federal government recently directed that all rails in the north be double-track rail lines, a practice long adopted by most countries across the world. In economically viable nations such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), United Kingdom, Germany, France and the Asian tigers, rail transportation has evolved to multi-tracks with over ground, underground, tubes and light rails all operating round the clock.

    Where did Nigeria go wrong?

    Nigeria’s railways date back to the colonial era with its first being the Lagos Colony to Ibadan track constructed by the British in 1896 and became operational five years later. The rail line was later extended to Minna in 1911 to link the Baro-Kano railway built by the regional northern government between 1907 and 1911, according to Wikipedia. The two lines were amalgamated in 1912 into the Government Department of Railways, the predecessor to the Nigerian Railway Corporation. The railway reached its North-east terminus of Nguru in 1930.

    Between 1913 and 1916, the Eastern regional government built its Eastern Railway connecting old Anambra State to Port Harcourt following the discovery of coal deposit in Udi. This railway was extended to Kaduna in 1927 where it linked the Lagos–Kano Railway and finally to the northern terminus of Maiduguri between 1958 and 1964.

    With these connections, there was ease of movement of goods and livestock from one region to the other for trade by barter which was practised then. Also, the railways were viable means for the movement of slaves by colonialists for onward transfer to their respective countries.

    Goods such as cotton, groundnuts, cocoa, palm oil, yam and other farm produces were moved from regions where they were plenteous to those in need of them in exchange for what the suppliers lacked. The railways remained functional and drove inter-regional commerce until the discovery of crude oil in 1957, subsequent change to power centralisation at the expense of the regions and thereafter, the Nigerian Civil War of 1967-1970 which the country was yet to recover from.

    The war took its toll on virtually all public infrastructure for the three years it lasted; some of the rail stations were bombed or burnt down to deny opposing camps access. The railways gradually wore out leaving room for weeds and rust to take over the tracks while the trains themselves became unserviceable. By the end of the war, the government did not see the need to quickly rehabilitate these railways as part of reintegration but in its stead, encouraged the use of articulated vehicles for the movement of goods across the country, an albatross that finally nailed rail transportation in the country, save for the 31-hour analogue Lagos-Kano train.

    While many have called on successive government to rehabilitate railways in order to contain the growing traffic snarl occasioned by activities of articulated vehicles, accidents and avoidable deaths they leave in their wake; the oligarchs who mainly own these vehicles have always found a way of frustrating the attempts, hiding under “the high cost of building railways and how the government will not be able to fund same.”

    However, advocates of functional modern railways are of the view that the cost notwithstanding, the nation stands to benefit more if railways that connect the seaports such as Lagos, Calabar, Onne and Warri and all the international airports in the country were constructed so that cargo can be lifted from those ports to their destinations without overburdening the roads.

    Although the nation was yet to achieve tangible results in rail transportation, some stakeholders belief that if previous governments had called the bluffs of the oligarchs as President Muhammadu Buhari did, Nigeria would probably today have standard and modern gauges.

    Successes recorded

    Despite assuming office during paucity of funds occasioned by a global fall in oil prices and recession, Buhari ensured that the Itakpe-Warri corridor which was abandoned for 36 years, was completely rehabilitated without borrowing a kobo of the $200 million expended, according to Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi.

    The corridor which was built to connect the steel communities of Ovwian and Ajaokuta (Delta Steel Company, DSC, Ovwian and Ajaokuta Steel Company, Kogi), has become fully operational and had a daily turnover of 100 passengers per trip, offers passenger, commercial and freight services connecting cities like Itakpe, Aghenebode and Agbhor and having 12 railway stations along the corridor.

    With Itakpe located just about 20 minutes from Lokoja, the corridor provides a good alternative to commuters travelling to and fro southern/eastern parts of the country who cannot afford airfares and loath the rigours, dangers now associated with road transportation.

    “This is one rail project that we did not borrow a dime to complete. President Muhammadu Buhari was and still is enthusiastic in driving the rail project in Nigeria as a way of improving the nation’s economy.

    “Already, the Rail Village in Agbor, Delta State which was consumed by fire is being rehabilitated and would have a school, hospital and residential quarters for staff upon completion. A Railway Yard is also being built in Agbor, for ease of maintenance of the trains,” the minister said.

    For Chief Madu Agboifo in Agbor, the rehabilitation of the railways would revive businesses and lives, noting that some of the youths were already being offered jobs at the railway yard and at the railway village.

    “We are looking forward to a round of robust economy again. We cannot wait to start enjoying the full benefits of railway transportation,” he exclaimed.

    Amaechi who has been on tour of the railways had repeatedly said that reviving the system will create millions of jobs, boost the economy and bridge the gap between Nigerian communities, explaining that it would cost the nation about $3 billion to link the Itakpe rail line to Abuja because it will also include a seaport in Warri.

    Using the Lagos-Ibadan corridor said to be 70 percent complete as an example, Amaechi said: “Around railways, economies have been created. At the Lagos -Ibadan corridor billed to commence full operation by December over 10,000 people have been employed. These people definitely rely on local food vendors for their meals while at work, just as other local craftsmen will find the stations along this corridor a good place to market their crafts. There will be motor parks to offer connecting road transport service for train passengers and this will also open up several business corridors in the Nigerian economy.”

    It was gathered that the Lagos-Abeokuta corridor was completed three months ago and has been operational. Its operational cost is estimated at $1.6billion. Also, The $500m Kaduna-Abuja rail line, though initiated by the President Goodluck Jonathan led government was however discontinued at Kubwa following an obstacle occasioned by the refusal of a church to release a hospital it had on the route for demolition. But the current government reached an agreement with the church, relocated and rebuilt the hospital and today, the railway is fully operational, with plans underway for additional coaches to take more passengers.

    On the other hand, rehabilitation of the $5.3billion Ibadan-Kano railway and $12b 2,000kms Port Harcourt to Maiduguri tracks were yet to commence, while plans are underway to build motor parks at all rail stations that currently do not have.

    Hope beckons?

    Speaking to journalists last weakened in Lagos, Amaechi reiterated government’s commitment to emplace good rail transportation in order to make life easier and better for Nigerians. He stated that only an efficient railway would address the bedlam around Lagos ports.

    He said: “The problem at the Lagos seaports is not clearing because goods are cleared on time. The problem is movement of those goods out of port. I am not under pressure from anybody. Part of the solution to Lagos seaport is an efficient rail line. You can argue that the narrow gauge is there but it is not efficient. The moment we fix this, those goods will be transferred to the rail and the logjam will disappear.”

    According to the minister, the Lagos-Ibadan rail line would be extended to the port once the Iju section was completed, adding that he would push them (operators) to the seaport.

    Admitting to ticket racketeering, over booking and other challenges currently being faced along the Abuja-Kaduna rail line, Amaechi who visited China to inspect new coaches and locomotives for use on the Lagos-Ibadan corridor said the issues would be addressed.

     

    .

  • The Tuberculosis enigma

    Tuberculosis (TB) has over the years been on the increase despite the level of awareness and efforts by the government and other agencies to curb the disease. Moses Emorinken reports

     

    A typical commercial bus ride in Lagos; a city adjudged as the third most stressful city in the world, by Zipjet is definitely an interesting case study.

    In this city, you’ll find that an average sixty capacity mass transit bus accommodates at least ninety people ‘inconveniently’ seated, while about thirty others stand and clamp their hands firmly on the rod that runs from one end within the bus to the other end.

    Now, imagine that combined with the terrible squeezing, sandwiching, and overloading of passengers in the bus for the mostly non-existent sitting and standing spaces, an individual who has been infected with the dreaded tuberculosis (TB) disease suddenly coughs heavily and repeatedly into the already heated, tense and poorly ventilated bus environment.

    Your guess is almost as good as mine; in one word – DISASTER!

    Statistics show that a single carrier of the TB disease can infect between 10 – 15 people in a year.

    TB is an airborne bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis that primarily affects the lungs, although other organs and tissues may be involved. It spreads from person to person through the air.

    When people with lung TB cough, sneeze or spit, they propel the TB germs into the air.

    Common signs of TB are: persistent coughs for two weeks or more, coughing of blood, chest pain, fatigue, unexplained weight loss, night sweats etc.

    According to a global report by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2017, TB remains the world’s deadliest infectious disease: it killed 1.6 million people in 2017, including 300,000 people with HIV. In the same year, 10 million people fell ill with TB.

    In 2017, an estimated one million children became ill with TB and 230,000 children died of TB (including children with HIV associated TB).

    The report also stated that: “Nigeria is among the high TB, TB/HIV and Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB) countries globally. The country is ranked first in Africa and sixth globally among the 30 high TB burden countries, and contributes 9% to the global 3.6 million missing TB cases after India (26%) and Indonesia (11%).”

    This is just a tip off the gory reality the world has to contend and grapple with as the days unfold.

     

    In the grasp of TB’s claws

    Amina had barely touched the helm of attaining her legitimate age of responsibility and young adulthood when the malevolent claws of TB set pace on her trail.

    It was almost two months to her 18th year birthday. Although weeks earlier she had been embattled with incessant chesty coughs, however, that was not enough to fade her genuine smile, grin and hopes for the days ahead.

    It seemed like a new and beautiful world was slowly unfolding before her eyes like the hibiscus that blossoms early in the morning.

    She could hardly contain the involuntary surge of excitements that gushed out of the depth of something she could only experience but could never explain.

    Little did she know that her excitement was about to be prematurely aborted. Her happiness was cut short as fast as it came when a test in a government hospital revealed that she had developed Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB).

    Two months earlier, Amina had developed a strange kind of cough, one that she had never experienced before. The strange cough resisted vehemently every curative prescription in all the over-the-counter cough mixtures and antibiotics that Mr. Chinedu, popularly known as Docky, the neighbourhood chemist prescribed for her.

    Attempts by her parents to find succour for her terribly problematic condi tion met with stiff resistance. In fact, after a while, her parents decided to visit a local herbalist who combines the twin powers of an herbal practitioner and a diviner.

    According to him, a woman from Amina’s paternal side was responsible for the coughs, unexplained loss of weight, loss of appetite and night sweats that she had been experiencing.

    Her parents spent more than half of the meagre income they earned as peasant farmers in order to find a cure for their beloved daughter. All efforts proved abortive.

    Their joyous daybreak came when a neighbour having observed keenly the travails of Amina’s parents decided to give them a piece of advice that will end their long nights and days of torture and financial exploitation by ignorant and quack healers.

    He advised them to jettison their traditional/spiritual approach and seek proper medical attention in a close by government hospital.

    This was the beginning of freedom for Amina.

    She was tested and confirmed positive for DR-TB. After several months of consistent treatment and strict monitoring by health caregivers and her parents, she is now totally free of TB and has gone ahead to live a normal life filled with uninterrupted birthdays.

    Well, the sad reality is that not many people are as fortunate as Amina. Some have died with the disease and have ended up spreading it to those around them, especially their loved ones.


     

    A disease of the poor?

    Many Nigerians, especially the supposedly ‘educated’ and elite are oblivious of the fact that TB is rife in and might just be dwelling in or close to their homes.

    The notion that TB is a disease of the poor is a dangerous fallacy because everyone is susceptible to the disease. Although, due to the work, social and living environment that the poor find themselves, they are more prone to contracting TB compared to the rich.

    Unsafe, unkempt and dirty environment, improper disposal of refuse and sewage, poorly ventilated houses and work spaces, overpopulated households compared to the available space are some of the disadvantages that the poor have to deal with everyday; this makes them more vulnerable to contracting TB. “Tuberculosis is a respecter of nobody; whether you fly first class, economy or belong to the class of those who practically live below the breadline. It is the disease of both the rich and poor, young and old, educated and uneducated, class and classless,” says Jennifer Nimfyel, a 23-year-old TB survivor.

    “I can’t tell specifically how I got TB, because it is an airborne disease that can be contracted anywhere. One can contract TB in buses, churches, mosques, in the choir while singing, and so on.

    “I started receiving treatment in the year 2016 for Drug Susceptible Tuberculosis (DS-TB) after several weeks of persistent chesty coughs, but I was not consistent with the drugs, then I relapsed and it became worse.

    “A second test was carried out and was discovered that the Drug Susceptible TB had advanced to Drug Resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB). This was largely because of my inconsistency in taking my drugs,” she said.

    Drug Susceptible TB is the opposite of Drug Resistant TB. If someone is infected with TB bacteria that are fully susceptible, it means that all of the TB drugs will be effective so long as they are taken properly.

    Jennifer is TB free today and currently studying to become a nurse and an advocate for TB in Nigeria.

    According to Mrs. Itohowo Uko, a Deputy Director with the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme (NTBLCP), “TB is not the disease of the poor. We have had children from rich homes whose parents have drivers that take them to school in air-conditioned cars contracting TB. Some of them got TB from their drivers.”

     

    Ignorance helps the disease

    Photo: World Health Organisation (WHO)

    Unfortunately, despite progress made in the last few years in the fight to end TB, every hour, eighteen Nigerians still die of TB; a disease that is absolutely preventable and curable.

    Every hour, not less than 47 people develop active TB, seven of which are children.

    Baba Ibadan, as he is fondly called by his friends, will be dearly missed by all not only because of his congenial demeanour, but because of the fatherly role he plays in the lives of some homeless children that litter his street in Ibadan.

    His first son, Alabi, while recounting the excruciating pain and torture his father went through said that they never knew he had TB and were not aware that test and treatment was free in all government owned hospitals.

    “My father died because of our collective ignorance. He battled TB for a long time. We were self-medicating his health with local herbs and prayers. When we finally took him to the hospital, he was long gone to be saved by treatment.

    “Till date, my conscience wouldn’t let me rest knowing that if I had walked into a nearby government hospital earlier and asked for help, my father would still be alive today.”

    Continue on Page 2

  • 2019 POLLS AFTERMATH: STATE OF THE STATES

    With the last phase of the 2019 General Elections almost concluded, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu and Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, report on the results and how it would likely impact on the states

    Considering the upsets in the May 13 Governorship and National Assembly Elections, there is the likelihood that the politics of some states may change fundamentally. Aside the situation where the ruling party in the state lost to the opposition, thus ushering-in new sets of political leaders and fundamental changes in the politics of the state, we also have situations where the ruling party becomes more entrenched or where the opposition gained more grounds, thus setting the stage for a more robust politicking.

    Already, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared 22 governors-elect and announced that the exercise in six states were inconclusive even as it promised to hold the extra elections on March 23 and to review the case of Rivers State.

    The states where INEC will organise supplementary elections include Sokoto, Bauchi, Adamawa, Plateau, Benue and Kano.

    Out of the 22 states where governors-elect were announced, All Progressives Congress (APC) got 13 while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won in nine states. No other political party that contested in the race got any state seat of power.

    It is interesting to note that seven, out of the nine governorship seats PDP got so far, were serving governors who won re-election. They include Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia); Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom); Ben Ayade (Cross River); David Umahi (Ebonyi); Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta); Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Dairus Ishaku (Taraba). The other two governors-elect that PDP got would be new governors.  They are Emeka Ihedioha (Imo) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo). The two new PDP governors dislodged ruling APC.

    *All but one of the states so far won by the opposition party are in the Southeast and the Southsouth. Only two of the elected governors are coming into office afresh.

    The seven incumbent governors who have been declared governors-elect are: Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia); Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom); Ben Ayade (Cross River); David Umahi (Ebonyi); Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta); Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Dairus Ishaku (Taraba).

    Out of the 13 states where APC’s candidates were declared as governors-elect, the dislodged PDP in two; in Gombe (Inuwa Yahaya) and in Kwara (AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq).

    New governors-elect on the ticket of APC include Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos); Dapo Abiodun (Ogun); Mai Mala Buni (Yobe); Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa); Muktar Idris (Zamfara) and Prof Babagana Zulum (Borno).

    Serving APC governors that have been declared governors-elect include Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna); Aminu Bello Masari (Katsina); Abubakar Bello (Niger); Abubakar Bagudu (Kebbi) and Abubakar Badaru (Jigawa).

    Informed observers contend that the results of this year’s Governorship and State Assembly Elections suggest a more robust politics in the next four years.

     

    NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

     

    KWARA STATE

    In 2015, President Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the presidential election in Kwara State, polling 302,146 votes, while the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP polled 132, 602 votes. It was the first time the state voted against the presidential candidate of the PDP since 2003 , and the party lost to APC with almost 200, 000 votes.

    Many people attributed that feat to the presence of Senate President Bukola Saraki in the APC. Thus, when, in the build up to the just concluded 2019 general elections, Saraki and his allies, including Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, dumped the APC and returned to the PDP, not a few pundits foreclosed victory for the APC in the state. The PDP, they said, will return to its winning ways in Kwara. But hardly had Saraki settled into the PDP that a new political movement, “O to ge” erupted in the state.

    The rate at which the APC’s ‘O To Ge’ (Yoruba for Enough is Enough) mantra caught fire like dry leaves in the harmattan, soon became a source of worry for the Senate President and his political family. The emergence of the APC’s candidate, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, from a noble family like the Saraki’s also changed the usual scenario where Saraki would confidently boast of the support of the royals and elites in the state.

    In a jiffy, the creme de la creme in Ilorin were sharply divided in their support for APC and PDP ahead of the general election on account of Abdulrazaq’s candidature. What followed was a spate of violence that is unprecedented in the history of the state. With the ruling PDP unwilling to leave office and the opposition APC determined to take office, Kwara became a theatre of political machinations and animations like never before.

    And when it was time for the first bout, the presidential and national assembly elections, despite the power of incumbency and the huge influence of money politics, Saraki and his gang was humbled. The defeat of the Senate President’s party was so massive that he lost a chance to return to the senate, losing to a relatively less known opponent in Kwara Central District. PDP’s two other senatorial candidates also lost to the rampaging APC.

    The APC also cleared majority of the House of Representatives seats. To show their firm resolve to reject the political leadership of Bukola Saraki and their disapproval of the ruling PDP in the state, in the presidential election, the people of Kwara state voted massively for APC with 302,146 votes compared to PDP’s meagre 32,602.

    Following the outcome of the governorship and state assembly elections that saw APC winning not just the guber seat but also the state assembly seats, Saraki and the PDP were effectively uprooted from the corridors of power in the state. Those who should know say the problems with PDP in the state are wrong choice of candidate; Saraki’s alleged overbearing attitude: the internal schism that followed his defection back to PDP from APC and the bad blood generated by the PDP guber primary election.

    The the sudden loss of support from the federal government and the cold shoulder towards the party by some erstwhile prominent chieftains, including PDP financier in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya, Dele Belgore and Senator Gbemi Saraki are, among others, are other reasons the party failed. On its part, APC has gained more supporters with its ability to galvanized the people of the state into action using the O to ge movement.

    Verdict: APC stronger, PDP in coma

     

    KOGI STATE

    There was no governorship poll in Kogi State but the struggle for the control of the State House of Assembly between APC and PDP was a very tense one. Also pitching the two leading party against each other was the elections into the senate and the House of Representatives. Chieftains of the two parties have been at each other’s throat for a while now, leading to a number of violent clashes.

    The APC won the presidential election in the state. President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC won the presidential election with overall votes of 285, 894 to defeat his main challenger, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP who polled 218,207 votes. Buhari led Atiku with a wide margin of 67,687 votes. The APC won in 14 local government areas while the PDP picked 7 LGAs. The APC also won majority of the seats into the national assembly.

    Candidates of APC won in Bassa, Ibaji, Okehi, Adavi, Ogori-Magongo, Idah, Ijumu, Kabba/Bunu Yagba West and Yagba East state constituencies during the state assembly election. The APC candidates also won in Okene Constituency 1 and 2, Ankpa Constituency 1 and 2, Ajaokuta, Mopa-Muro, Kogi, Olamaboro Dekina 2 and Lokoja 2 constituencies. Elections in Lokoja Constituency 1 and Omala LGA were inconclusive.

    The outcome of the 2015 general election in Kogi, contrary to many predictions, has shown that the APC is still very much acceptable to the people of the state. On the other hand, in spite of the victory of its poster boy, Senator Dino Melaye in Kogi West, the PDP appears to be settling into its second position status in the state without much ado.

    But many people are quick to argue that APC’s relative success in the general election was aided by the absence of Governor Yahaya Bello’s name on the ballot papers. In spite of their obvious love for Buhari across the state, so many issues are making the governor unpopular with the people of the state. The governor’s inability to pay salaries and pensions remains a big issue.

    It is left to be seen if Bello, who is Ebirra and remains very popular in his home stead of Kogi Central Senatorial District, will lead the party to similar victories across the state when he vies for re-election soon. For this to happen, analysts say he must end the fierce internal crisis that is tearing the ruling party apart under his watch.

    Verdict: APC strong, PDP coming up

     

    BENUE STATE

    Before the 2015 presidential election, Benue State was one of the few remaining states the PDP was sure of winning. Since 1999 till then, the state had voted the PDP and as such, it boasted of more PDP chieftains than those of others parties. Surprisingly for the PDP, the people of the state opted to follow the APC and President Muhammadu Buhari in that election four years ago. Buhari polled 373, 961 votes to defeat Jonathan who got 303, 737 votes.

    In addition, the APC went ahead to win the state governorship poll weeks later and Governor Samuel Ortom was sworn in as governor to end the political hold of the PDP on the state. But the new status didn’t last long in spite of the political heavyweights paraded by the new ruling party in the state. Trouble started soon as Senator George Akume, leader of the APC in the state and Governor Ortom soon fell out.

    Ortom, who had a running battle with the federal government over the handling of clashes between herdsmen and farmers in his state, eventually left the APC, he went to the PDP with a good number of heavyweights, thereby depleting the political strength of his former party while bolstering the PDP which still had former Governor Gabriel Suswam as leader.

    Thus, the two frontline political parties slugged it out in their bid to take charge of the state in the just concluded general elections. Expectedly, the campaigns were largely personality-based, but was also coloured by economics, ethnicity and religion in the light of the herdsmen killings witnessed in the last two to three years and the inability of Governor Ortom to pay workers’ salaries and carry out developmental projects across the state.

    Ortom capitalized on the farmers-herders crises as a weapon to secure his second term ticket and win the state for the PDP. The anti-Fulani sentiments in the state have grown to the extent that President Buhari and APC were despised in many parts of the state. The joining of forces by Ortom and ex-Governor Gabriel Suswam, who has an axe to grind for being put on trial for alleged corruption by the APC administration, made the PDP more formidable.

    To make matters worse for the APC, it lost Senator Barnabas Gemade (Benue North-East), to another party. He contested in the elections as the senatorial candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), while Senator George Akume (Benue North-West) the leader of the APC in the state, ran as the candidate of the APC. He worked hard to install his political associate, Emmanuel Jime, as the governor of the state.

    The two parties fought hard but as things stand today, the PDP had the upper hand. Akume’s efforts were not enough to keep the APC up in the struggle as he even lost his senate re-election bid.n The APC also lost the presidential election to the PDP. Its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, emerged winner of the presidential election in the state with 355,255 votes while Buhari of APC got 347,668.

    The PDP also snatched all the three senatorial seat from the APC. Ex-governor Gabriel Suswam won the Benue North East seat, another PDP chieftain, Emmanuel Yisa Orker-Jev emerged winner in Benue North West while former Minister, Patrick Abba Moro, also of the PDP, will represent Benue South in the upper chamber of the national assembly.

    And when it was time for the governorship election, the PDP once again took the lead. The process was eventually declared inconclusive and supplementary elections have been ordered in the state by INEC for March 23. But not a few analysts believe the PDP is poised to win the race given the comfortable lead it currently enjoys ahead of APC.

    At the end of the inconclusive gubernatorial election in Benue state, Governor Samuel Ortom of the PDP got 410, 576. His closest rival, Emmanuel Jime of the APC got 329, 022 at the close of the first ballot. Going by the result released by INEC, PDP and Ortom currently leads the governorship contest with 81,554 votes. The two frontline candidates will be slugging out for 121, 011 votes in the affected polling units across the state.

    But analysts say it is going to be very difficult for APC, which also lost the last presidential and national assembly elections in the state to the PDP, to overturn the deficit and win the supplementary election. “PDP will most likely go ahead to consolidate its lead at the extra polls on its way to finally retaining the troubled state in its political kitty till 2023,” an analyst said.

    As things stand today, the PDP has been able to bounce back, not just to political reckoning, but political leadership of the north-central state, pushing the APC deeper back into the opposition. Many frontline chieftains of the APC have also dumped the party and returned to the PDP ahead of the general elections. The APC now operates from the position of a weakened former ruling party.

    Verdict: PDP bounced back, APC deflated

     

    PLATEAU STATE

    In 2015, the APC, which had lost the presidential election to the then ruling PDP, bounced back to win the governorship seat a fortnight later. It was the first time the PDP will be losing the governorship of the state since 1999. Subsequently, the APC took charge of the state and it was as if the PDP has gone to sleep across the state. But few days to the 2019 presidential election, the political climate in Plateau State became as uncertain as it was in 2015.

    The main issue in Plateau for the 2019 general elections has to do with the security challenge in the state. The people of the state are divided in their opinion as regard how well the APC administration has handled the menace of killer herdsmen across the country. Governor Simon Lalong of the APC and his party had a huge task battling the propagandas the PDP wielded around this issue.

    The PDP’s campaign in the state was led by 75-year old Lt. Gen. Jeremiah Useni, who was a former Minister of FCT under the late Military Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha. He is a serving senator and the gubernatorial candidate of the opposition party. He marshaled the opposition party and its chieftains to deliver the state to Atiku in the presidential election last February.

    The PDP won 11 out of the 17 local government areas of Plateau State while the APC won six in the presidential election. The PDP scored a total of 548,665 votes while the APC scored a total of 468,555 votes, with the difference being 80,110. The party also gave the APC a good fight in the national assembly elections, winning one senatorial seat, just like APC, while the third is to be decided in a re-run poll.

    At the conclusion of the first round, it was obvious that the PDP meant business. Another issue that played a key role is ethnicity which ex-Governor Jonah Jang, also a chieftain of the PDP, has exploited in the past to sustain the party. The absence of imprisoned ex-Governor Joshua Dariye also created a setback for APC though the governor was able to accommodate his structure in the scheme of things.

    But in the inconclusive guber race, Governor Lalong of the APC got 583, 255 to lead Senator Useni of the PDP with 44,929 votes. Useni got 538, 326. The duo will be fighting for the outstanding 49,377 votes. But many analysts say the election is APC’s to win. With only 49, 377 votes to be contested for in the affected polling units, and APC already comfortably leading with 44, 929, the opposition party looks defeated already.

    Aside from its comfortable lead, the ruling APC also pocketed majority of the state assembly seats to show its acceptance across the state. APC sure benefited from the performance of Governor Lalong, which has been adjudged by many to be commendable, especially his ability to restore and maintain peace in the troubled parts of the North central state. His relationship with civil servants in the state is also a plus for the ruling party.

    Verdict:  APC still strong, PDP in comeback bid

     

    NIGER STATE

    The 2019 general election marked the final annihilation of the PDP in Niger state. Though Governor Abubakar Sani Bello encountered a lot of political challenges that could have made APC falter in the state, the goodwill of Buhari turned out a huge asset. The president is still adored in the state. His party and its candidates benefitted immensely from this.

    President Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the APC in the presidential elections, scored 612,371 votes in Niger. Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the PDP scored 218,052 votes. Buhari also won in all the 25 councils of the state, to bolster the popularity of the ruling party across the state. The APC also won the three senatorial seats and other national assembly seats.

    In the guber contest, Governor Abubakar Bello of the APC defeated his major challenger, Umar Nasko of the PDP, in a landslide victory. Bello polled 526,412 votes to defeat Nasko who had 298,065 votes. The APC also won majority of the House of Assembly seats to further show the world that it is the party loved by the people of Niger state.

    Going forward, the governor should try and met the expectations of the masses of the state. Before the general election, anywhere he went, he was always greeted with the chant of “So daya” (one term) by the people. He also suffered attacks while campaigning in Bida and Erena in Shiroro Local Government Area. The governor also benefited from the goodwill of his father, Col. Sani Bello (a former Military Governor of the state); the benevolence of his in-laws having married the daughter of a former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar and allegiance to power rotation formula in the state irrespective of whether a governor has performed or not.

    Verdict: APC still in charge

     

    NASARAWA STATE

    The APC won back its pride of place in Nasarawa and further confirmed its hold on the state during the 2019 presidential election. President Buhari of the APC defeated Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. President Buhari polled 289,903 votes to defeat Atiku Abubakar who scored 283,847votes. The APC won the state by a margin of 6,056 votes

    During the 2015 presidential election, the then President Jonathan of the PDP, surprisingly won the presidential election in Nasarawa State, defeating main challenger Buhari of the APC. It was a surprise because the state has always been a stronghold of Buhari’s even when he had no formidable political platform to contest on. Jonathan polled 273, 460, Buhari polled 236, 838 votes. Since then, the APC had been kept on its toes by the opposition in the state.

    And at the end of the governorship contest in the state, Abdullahi Sule of the APC was declared winner. The APC candidate polled a total of 327,229 votes to defeat other opponents in the election. David Ombugadu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 184,281 votes, while Labaran Maku of the All Progressives Grand Alliance polled a total of 132,784 votes at the election.

    The wide margin with which the ruling party defeated its rivals has been described as a testament of the growing popularity of the APC in the state. The result as released by INEC, indicated that APC won in 11 out of the 13 local government areas of the state while Maku of APGA and Umar Aliyu Doma of Zenith Labour Party won in Nasarawa Eggon and Doma local government areas respectively.

    All Progressives Congress (APC) also won 14 out of 20 seats at the Nasarawa State House of Assembly election so far declared by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). PDP won five while the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) won one. Four of the 24 House of Assembly seats in the state were declared inconclusive.

    Al-Makura’s decision to stamp his feet and allow power to shift from Nasarawa South District to Nasarawa North District for fairness and equity, paid off, having deflated the anticipated winning formula of the opposition. This in turn shored up the popularity of the ruling party in the north where the PDP held sway before now. This is expectedly impacted in favor of the parties candidates.

    Verdict: APC stronger, PDP weakened

     

    NORTH EAST ZONE

     

    ADAMAWA STATE

    Adamawa State is one of the states yet to have a completed Governorship and House of Assembly Elections. The hotly contested elections were declared inconclusive.

    Even before the March 13 Governorship Elections, we have reported that no state gives the APC leadership more headaches than Adamawa where it lost two senatorial seats contrary to the pre-election permutations. From the results of the Presidential and National Assembly elections, it was obvious that the state identified with its son, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who was the presidential candidate of the PDP.

    Explaining the uniqueness of the politics of the state, we also reported in our last predictions that more than any state in the federation, the 28 governorship candidates were drawn from different religious groups.

    We also reported that going by performance, Governor Jibrila Bindow’s achievements will make it an easy ride for APC. We noted however that some political leaders are angry with the governor and that other local issues may be thrown up to influence the results of the election. The Nation had noted after the presidential elections that with a slim win of 410, 266 votes by PDP over APC’s 378, 078, the governorship contest is still open in Adamawa. We observed that the contest is important to both parties. President Buhari needs to pacify a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal and the younger brother of the First Lady, Dr. Modi who are leading the assault against the return of Bindow, while Atiku would desire nothing more than retaining a PDP state government in his home.

    Although the final results of the Governorship and House of Assembly Elections in the state will only emerge after the supplementary polls, the results that were announced have given observers inkling to what is likely to happen.

    It was reported that PDP’s Ahmadu Fintiri, a former acting governor, was leading as at the time INEC halted the announcements.

    Confirming the inconclusiveness of the election, the Returning Officer, Prof. Andrew Haruna, said the number of cancellations was higher than the margin of lead votes between the two contestants and therefore, a new date for the rerun election would be fixed.

    He said the development was necessitated by the margin of votes between the two top candidates which is lesser than total votes voided in about 40 polling units.

    He explained that there are 40,988 votes that were cancelled in 44 polling units across the state.

    “The margin of lead is 32,476; and going by the margin of lead which is backed up by law in the INEC Regulations and Guidelines for the conduct of elections,” he said.

    As would be expected, the two parties are working hard to win the March 23 Supplementary Elections. While APC is desperate to retain the Northeast state, the PDP is doing anything possible to get its presidential candidate’s state. Whichever gets the state will mean a lot in the political balance in the Northeast. As an observer puts it, the battle for the soul of Adamawa is not just between Bindow and Fintiri but also between Buhari and Atiku.

    Verdict: PDP and APC are strong here

     

    BAUCHI STATE

    Bauchi is another state where the Governorship and House of Assembly Elections was declared inconclusive.

    Prof. Mohammed Kyari, Returning Officer, who made the declaration, said that apart from the cancellation of the result from entire Tafawa Balewa Local Government Area because of irregularities, the exercise in some other polling units also suffered the same fate.

    “The margin between the winner and opponent is less than the total number of votes cancelled in some polling units.

    “By law, since the margin of winner is less than the total number of votes cancelled and registered voters in the areas where the votes have been cancelled, this elections is hereby declared inconclusive,” he said.

    He added that his decision was in line with section 26, part 53 of the Electoral Act.

    The Returning Officer also gave the scores of incumbent governor, Mohammed Abubakar of APC as 465,453 votes and that of Bala Mohammed of PDP as 469,512 votes.

    Even before the elections, The Nation has reported that Bauchi is one of the hot states to watch. Although all the candidates signed a peace accord on December 21, 2018, the political atmosphere in the state remained tense. It remained even more so after APC won Presidential and National Assembly elections.

    Sources confirmed to us that some members of the class which brought Governor Abubakar to power in 2015 have fallen out with him. But we also reported that the intervention of President Buhari, especially his reconciliatory agenda among the stakeholders helped to stabilize APC in the state. The fortification of the party through the defections of ex-Governor Isa Yuguda; a former National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Senator Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu, it was believed, would create barriers for PDP.  This is the first time Yuguda and Mu’azu will find a common political ground and pursue the same goal.

    Being a traditional stronghold of Buhari, we had predicted that the governor may benefit from his political goodwill.

    But by the time INEC declared the elections inconclusive, PDP was leading.

    Mohammed Kyari, the Returning Officer of Governorship Election in Bauchi, who declared the election inconclusive, explained at INEC office where the results from the 20 local governments of the state were being collated that the margin of 4,059 votes between the two leading parties was less than 45,312, which was the number of cancelled votes after results from 19 local government were collated.

    As a result, he stated that according to Section 26 part 53 of the Electoral Act, supplementary elections would be held within 21 days in areas where elections were not held before a winner would be announced.

    As at that time, PDP was in lead after scoring 469,512 votes. The PDP was closely followed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) with 465,453 votes. The People’s Redemption Party (PRP) came third with 45,735 votes followed by the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) with 31,057 votes.

    Kyari also rejected the result from Tafawa Balewa Local Government following reports of violence and disruption of collation of result at the local government collation centre. This local government area is a stronghold of the opposition PDP and is one of the three local governments that make up the constituency of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara.

    When she was called to announce the result collated at the local government, the local government collation officer, Dominion Anosike, explained that thugs attacked her and other officials of the INEC during collation and made away with result sheets and other documents.

    She, however, explained that after the police and other security agencies in the local government restored peace, she continued with the collation of the results with her laptop and added that she was made to announce the result at the local government collation centre “under duress”. When asked if the result she was about to announce was genuine, she said it was.

    It would be recalled that during the 23 February National Assembly Elections in the local government, Dogara won the APC’s candidate with about 5,000 votes. According to the result announced by Mrs. Anosike at the local government collation centre, the PDP had the largest votes with 40,010, followed by the APC with 29,862 votes.

    The agent of the PDP, Tanko Dutse, said the cancellation of the result from Tafawa Balewa was illegal as the returning officer did not have the power to cancel result already collated.

    As the two parties prepare for the supplementary elections the tension is getting hotter even as the leaders of the parties exchange verbal assaults and make claims that further heat up the polity.

    Verdict: APC strong but gaining strength

     

    TARABA STATE

    With the victory of PDP in Taraba State, the party seems to have consolidated its hold of the politics of the Northeast state. Before the Governorship and House of Assembly Elections, we reported that some heavyweights returned to the governorship trenches against the incumbent State governor, Darius Ishaku of PDP. They include a former Acting governor of the state, Sani Danladi (APC), a former Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Aisha Alhassan of the United Democratic Party (UDP), Babangida Umar of the SDP, Adamu Danbako of APGA and Danjuma Umaru – National Rescue Movement (NRM), among others.

    We also predicted that it will be a three-horse race between Governor Ishaku, Danladi, and Alhassan with religious, ethnic and insecurity as top considerations. As at that time, the results of the presidential poll had also confirmed PDP as still the first choice with the opposition garnering 374, 743 as against APC’s 324, 906.

    With the former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus  Danjuma, considered a big influence because he has largely determined (or handpicked)  the governor of the state since 1999, it seems nothing has changed.

    We were right as the Governorship Election result shows. Governor Darius Ishaku polled 520,432 votes to win the election. The candidate of the All Progressives Congress Alhaji Sani Danladi scored 362,735 votes to place second.

    Verdict: PDP still strong and APC gathering more strength

     

    BORNO STATE

    Despite the insurgency, Borno has about 41 governorship candidates, most of whom are paperweight politicians. The key actors in the battle for Government House in Maiduguri are a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum (the APC governorship candidate) and a former state chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Alhaji Mohammed Alkali Imam.

    The PDP appears virtually dead in the state and it lost its soul when a revered ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) defected to APC. Also, PDP’s abysmal performance at the Presidential and National Assembly elections has underlined its weakness.

    Other factors that have secured the state firmly for APC are the performance of the outgoing governor Kashim Shettima; the decision of APC stakeholders to sink their differences over gubernatorial primaries;  the defection of  a former national chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC and the appreciation of the people of the state of Buhari  administration’s commitment to the war against the Boko Haram insurgency .

    With the paltry 71, 7888 votes earned by PDP at the presidential election, only a miracle can make it win the governorship poll. The existence of two factions in the party, led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively, has cleared the coast for an easy APC victory.

    Verdict: APC

     

    YOBE STATE

    Yobe not only has cultural affinity with Borno State, the pattern of politics in the two states is often similar. The political leaders share the same views and their voting trend has been alike in the First, Second, Third and Fourth Republics. The March 9 poll is thus likely to be a mere coronation of the APC candidate, Mai Mala Buni, who is the outgoing National Secretary of the party.

    In spite of a change of PDP candidate, the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as the new standard bearer of the opposition has not improved the fortunes of the party. The most vocal PDP member in the state, Buba Galadima, could not even deliver his polling unit during the presidential and National Assembly elections. APC received 750 votes to PDP’s two votes there. It is certainly a one-horse race in Yobe State.

    Verdict: APC

     

    GOMBE STATE

    The clean sweep of the presidential and National Assembly elections by the APC showed that ex-Governor Danjuma Goje has bounced back as the godfather of politics in the state.

     

    The defeat of incumbent Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo in the senatorial election will weigh heavily on the fortunes of the PDP. Saidu Ahmed Alkali of the ruling APC polled 152,551 votes against Dankwambo’s 88,016 votes to win the Gombe North District seat.

    But the governorship poll will determine whether or not Dankwambo has finally lost relevance in the state. The governor had seized power in 2011 and virtually overshadowed Goje. The two leaders have a date with history on March 9.

    While Goje is sticking to Inuwa Yahaya (an Hausa from Gombe Central) as APC governorship candidate, PDP and Dankwambo have opted for ex-Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Senator Bayero Nafada, who is a Fulani from Gombe North.

    In 2015, Goje fielded the same Yahaya (his honest ex-Commissioner for Finance) as the governorship candidate of APC but he lost the battle because of intra-party crisis in which Nafada was the arrowhead of the revolt.

    For the governorship race, ethnic colouration and the need for power shift might determine which of the APC or PDP will win the race to the Government House. In the past 16 years, Goje (from Gombe Central District) and Dankwambo (from Gombe North Senatorial District) have ruled the state and there is agitation to allow power to shift to another zone.

    The PDP has a trust hurdle to cross following the breaking of a pledge by Dankwambo to concede the governorship ticket to Gombe South. The PDP on October 3, 2018 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of ways with PDP has tightened the noose on PDP.

    Verdict: APC

     

    NORTH WEST ZONE

     

    KANO STATE

    Kano is one of the states where the Independent National Electoral Commission declared inconclusive.

    At the time INEC declared the election inconclusive, PDP’s Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf had polled 1,014,474 votes while APC’s Governor Abdullahi Ganduje had 987,819 votes.

    Before the elections, we had predicted that kano is a hot state to watch. With the allegation of millions of dollars bribery against Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC, the contest, we reported that the election ought to be over integrity between him and his PDP rival Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf.

    But the hostility of Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso against President Buhari and his defection from APC to PDP have changed the political narrative in the state.

    This is the second time Kano State will go through such experience.

    During the 1983 general elections, the PRP picked the late Aliyu Sabo Bakin Zuwo, who had no formal education as its governorship candidate against the late Governor Abubakar Rimi of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) who ran an “all graduate” State Executive Council. But Zuwo, rated as a semi-literate despite sponsoring more bills in the Senate in the Second Republic, defeated Rimi because of his undiluted loyalty to the leader of PRP, the late Mallam Aminu Kano.

    Prior to the presidential and national Assembly Elections, the PDP was actually bubbling with much hope that it would win Kano State or give APC a good fight. The defeat of the party at the Presidential and National Assembly elections has dimmed the chances of the opposition on March 9.

    The demoralizing outcome of the first stage of the elections has left the party to scavenge to pick up the pieces. If PDP has any problem in the state, it has to do with the way it conducted its governorship primaries that led to the anointing of Yusuf by Kwankwaso. The imposition weakened and depleted the party.

    The mass movement of ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his supporters from PDP to APC was the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Many others have deserted PDP. As the state awaits the March 23 Supplementary election, the tension is high.

    Verdict: APC strong

     

    ZAMFARA STATE

    With the Independent National Electoral Commission’s declaration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate, Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu, winner of the 2019 governorship election in Zamfara, our prediction that the state will remain an APC state has come to pass.

    The State Collation Officer, Prof Kabiru Bala of Ahmadu Bello University Zaria said the APC candidate polled 534,541 to defeat Dr. Bello Muhammad Mutawalle of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) who got 189,452.

    It is instructive that APC also clears House of Assembly seats.

    Verdict: APC in firm control.

     

    KATSINA STATE

    With PDP’s victory in Katsina State, nothing has changed in the politics of the state. Announcing the victory of the candidate of APC, the Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari, INEC said he polled 943, 0815 against the 476,768 by his PDP contender.

    We have reported before the elections that for the return of Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Katsina State can be taken for granted by the APC because he will benefit from the tremendous goodwill of President Buhari.

    We also said PDP is bound to be affected by the bandwagon effect of February 23, 2019 Presidential and National Assembly Elections in which it lost with a difference of  924, 077 votes. The APC political hurricane is ravaging Katsina.

    Verdict: APC is strong

     

    SOKOTO STATE

    Sokoto State is one of the states whose Governorship Elections were declared inconclusive.

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said the decision was because 75, 403 votes were cancelled, which were higher than 3, 413 margin difference.

    The State’s Chief Returning Officer, Prof. Fatima Muktar, made the declaration in Sokoto, stating that 51 candidates contested the election.

    Muktar, who is the Vice Chancellor, Federal University Dutse (FUD), Jigawa, declared that it was based on the consideration of cancelled votes that emanated from 136 polling units in the state.

    She said the total valid votes were 987, 952 and the total rejected votes were 30, 082 while the total votes cast were 1, 018, 024 at the concluded election.

    According to the results announced before the declaration, Gov. Aminu Tambuwal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has won the election in 12 out of the 23 LGAs results announced with 3,413 votes margins.

    Until the supplementary elections results are made known, there is tension in the state. But APC’s Tambuwal seems set to win.

    Verdict: APC strong

     

    KEBBI STATE

    Kebbi is another Northwest state where APC retained power easily.

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) while declaring Gov. Atiku Bagudu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) winner of the governorship election in Kebbi, said Bagudu of APC scored 673,717 votes, while Sen. Isah Galaudu of PDP polled 106,633 votes.

    Before the election, we had reported that the sterling performance of Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State in the last three and a half years and his ability to keep APC united, have made Kebbi a no-go area for PDP.

    Verdict: APC in charge

     

    KADUNA STATE

    With PDP’s victory in the Governorship race in Kaduna, the political texture of the state remains the same.

    Announcing the results, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said Governor El-Rufai defeated his closest rival with a margin of 231, 259 votes.

    El-Rufai was declared winner by Prof. Muhammed Bello, the state collation officer, who said the incumbent governor polled a total votes of 1, 045, 427.

    His closest rival, Isa Ashiru of the Peoples Democratic Party got a total votes of 814, 168.

    Before the state elections, we have reported that despite the fact that the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna State was in favour of the APC in Kaduna State, it might be an uphill task for Governor Nasir el-Rufai who is seeking a second term ticket. This was because he has a serious match in the candidate of the PDP, Mallam Isa Ashiru Kudan. But with the result, APC is still in firm control.

    Verdict: APC strong and in control

     

    JIGAWA STATE

    With APC’s victory in Jigawa State, the politics of the state remains unchanged.

    Announcing the governor of Jigawa State, Mohammadu Badaru Abubakar and governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as the winner INEC’s returning officer of the state governorship election, Prof Azubike Sunny Nwankwo, said Abubakar scored 810, 933 as against Aminu Ibrahim Ringim of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who polled 288, 356 votes and Bashir Adamu Jumbo of Social Democratic Party (SDP), who scored, 32,894 votes.

    The governor won in all the 27 local government areas of the state.

    We had earlier reported that what was at stake in Jigawa State is a struggle for the soul of the state by ex- Governor Sule Lamido and Governor Badaru whose rice production revolution has empowered many citizens of the state. His problems arose from his alienation of the political elite and some royal fathers who are not enjoying as much largesse as they used to do in the past.

    For Lamido, the loss of PDP to APC in 2015 was a disaster and he is determined to regain the control of the state. His Achilles Heel, however, is the imposition of Ringim as the party’s governorship candidate – a development which angered some PDP stalwarts. With the result, APC is in control.

    Verdict: APC in charge

     

    SOUTHEAST ZONE

     

    ENUGU STATE

    The result of the Governorship and State House of Assembly Elections confirmed our earlier predictions that Enugu remains a PDP stronghold.

    We reported that in Enugu State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, is best positioned to win in this year’s governorship election. This he has done in a landslide. The party also won the Presidential and all the National Assembly elections in the state.

    Independent National Electoral Commission State Collation Officer, Prof. Joseph Ahaneku, who is the Vice Chancellor, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, announced that the party won in the 17 local government areas of the state.

    Out of the 421,014 valid votes in the state, PDP scored 355,553 votes against 54,423 votes polled by the All Progressives Congress in the state. 30,049 votes were declared invalid.

    Since the return of democracy in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state. In 2015, for example, PDP garnered 553,003 out of the total 573,173 viable votes cast in that year’s presidential election, leaving the other 13 political parties that contested that election to share the remaining 20,170 votes.

    Although APC in the state now boasts of having top political leaders like former Governor Sullivan Chime, former Senate President Ken Nnamani and an influential governorship candidate, in the person of Senator Ayogu Eze, it failed to change the political reality.

    Verdict: Enugu is a PDP stronghold

     

    ABIA STATE

    As we predicted before the Governorship Elections, Abia State has remained a PDP stronghold since 1999. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of PDP in the presidential election won the state, scoring 219,698 as against APC’s 85,058, it is predicted that in the governorship election, this feeling of poor performance will ultimately affect the way the people will vote in the forthcoming Governorship and State House of Assembly Election.

    As we hinted in our earlier reports, most stakeholders in the state are furious to note that Abia, though an oil-producing state, is today one of the least developed in the country, physical infrastructure wise, a development that has resulted in aggressive agitation for change of leadership.

    This revolt has caused PDP Abia North Senatorial District, where it lost the Senatorial seat and other legislative seats to APC.

    So, unlike what obtained before, where PDP had everything, APC has truly made an in-road into Abia State politics though it failed to take over the Government House in Umuahia. With Senator-elect, Orji Uzor Kalu leading the APC opposition team in Abia, the politics of the states is poised to change fundamentally. This is even so because the two other senators, Theodore Orji and Enyinnaya Abaribe worked under Orji Uzor kalu when he was the state’s governor. Abaribe was his deputy, who later fell out with him, while Theodore Orji was his Chief of Staff, who he later made governor before they fell out, it remains to be seen how the three senators will relate with the PDP governor and their relationship will impact of the state’s polity.

    Verdict: PDP still strong, APC now a force to reckon with

     

    IMO STATE

    The victory of the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Hon. Ihedioha, and the defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will ushered in new set of leaders in the politics of this Southeast state that has been under APC governance in the last six to seven years.

    When Governor Rochas Okorocha of APC was suspended from the ruling party we reported, citimg the results of the Presidential and National Assembly Elections in Imo State, that the power game between Okorocha and his estranged former political associates in APC in Imo is poised to shape how the people will vote in the state.

    As the only Southeast state currently under the leadership of an All Progressives Congress-led government, one would have expected the ruling party, to win the governorship election with ease. But it became clear that following the intricate power struggle amongst its leaders, APC was poised lose this governorship race, and it did.

    Although Okorocha and his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, the candidate of Action Alliance, are still arguing that Ihedioha is not the winner, there is no doubt that Imo has reverted back to PDP.

    Declaring Ihedioha the winner of the contest, The Independent National Electoral Commission announced that Ihedioha polled 273,404 votes to defeat his closest rival, Uche Nwosu of the Action Alliance (AA), who polled 190,364 votes, while Senator Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress, APC, came third with 96,458 votes.

    Verdict: APC deflected, PDP has rebounced

     

    EBONYI STATE

    The results of the Governorship and House of Assembly Elections confirmed our earlier predictions that Ebonyi State has remained a PDP state since 1999 and that there is no definitive factor that suggests there would be a change in this year’s governorship election.

    We had explained that during the Presidential and NASS Elections, the party won easily in the state as PDP garnered 258,573 votes while APC’s candidate got only 90,726 votes.

    Before the presidential election, there were speculations that Governor Dave Umahi, who has some personal family relationship with APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari, may work against his party’s candidate, Atiku, in favour of Buhari. That did not happen, a confirmation that PDP in Ebonyi State remains united and strong.

    It would be recalled that out of the 363,888 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP, in collaboration with APGA, harvested a whopping 323,653 votes, leaving only 19,518 for APC, which came second.

    Following the clarification mid last year that the argument over positions between old members and new members did not succeed in dividing the party in the state, it seems Governor Dave Umahi, will be contesting on a united platform with added advantage of incumbency factor.

    Besides, investigation confirms that most of the people in Ebonyi are happy with the performance of Umahi, who one of them, Nkama Oka, described as “a true engineer, opening up the hinterlands.”

    Prof Frank Chukwuemeka, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) State Collation Officer for Ebonyi governorship, while announcing Umahi as winner in Abakaliki said that Umahi polled a total of 393,043 votes to defeat his distant rival, Sen Sonni Ogbuoji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who polled 81,703 votes to emerge the winner.

    The collation officer said that the results collated from the 13 local government areas of the state showed that the PDP candidate won in all the 171 registration areas and 13 local government areas respectively.

    Given this result, it is clear that Ebonyi remains a PDP state and nothing has changed.

    Verdict: PDP is still in charge here

     

    SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE

     

    RIVERS STATE

    The final outcome of Rivers State’s Governorship Election is still under review.

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while giving insight into why the electoral process in the state was declared inconclusive after suspending the collation of results said it was due to electoral malpractice in the state.

    The electoral umpire explained that the electoral process in the state was called off due to violence and threat to life.

    The explanation was contained in a statement signed by the Chief Press Secretary to INEC Chairman, Mahmoud Yakubu, Rotimi Oyekanmi.

    The statement reads partly: “In Rivers, the Commission was forced to suspend the election due to violence and threats to life, as a result of which it constituted a Fact Finding Committee to assess the situation and report back within 48 hours.

    “In a couple of other states where a declaration was not immediately made, the elections did not meet the threshold required for such a declaration.

    “The Commission will take the appropriate action prescribed by the law and make a declaration.”

    Before the election, we had reported that in Rivers State it would be a walk in the park for the PDP as it will be contesting in a one sided election that will not be featuring its main rival, the APC. The opposition party has been kept out of the race by a Supreme Court judgement that confirmed INEC’s position that it failed to conduct acceptable primary election within the stipulated time.

    To further smoothen the journey to re-election for Governor Nyesom Wike and his party, a Federal High Court sitting in Port Harcourt and presided over by Justice E.A. Obile, had sacked the governorship candidate for Accord Party, Chief Dumo Lulu-Briggs. Briggs, observers say, has been seen as the only candidate remaining in the race that can put up some challenge, albeit minute, to the PDP.

    He was sacked on the grounds that he was not the authentic candidate for the party. Dumo Lulu-Briggs was therefore replaced with Mr. Precious Baridoo, who was said to have won the governorship ticket of the party at the party’s primary elections.

    Although the announcement of the results in Rivers State was halted to allow for the forthcoming re-run elections, the results so far made is instructive.

    — The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released the results of one federal constituency and nine state assembly seats in the re-run legislative elections in Rivers.

    The result signed by the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) in the state, Aniedi Ikoiwak, showed that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won the only House of Representatives seat of Abua/Odual/Ahoada East constituency

    Betty Apiafi of the PDP polled 19,188 votes to beat Ewor Robinson of APC who scored 6468 to win the House of Representatives poll.

    The result also showed that the party won eight of the nine state assembly seats while the All Progressives Congress (APC) won one seat.

    Rivers State, which started out in 1999 as a PDP state became a major APC state under the then governor Rotimi Amaechi who governed it for eight years. However, Amaechi’s erstwhile political godson, Nyesom Wike’s emergence as the state governor, on the ticket of PDP, not only returned the state to PDP but marked the beginning of an intriguing political rivalry that has held the breathe of Nigerians.

    Largely because Amaechi, the current Minister of Transportation is also the Director-General of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential re-election campaign, the expectation, until the court nailed APC in the state, was high that he ought to ensure APC’s victory during the general election. Both because of the high offices he currently occupies and the fact that it has become a personal battle between him and his former ally, Wike.

    Ironically, the same pressure was on Wike to deliver Rivers to PDP. It would be recalled that Wike enjoyed unalloyed support of the former first family, the Jonathans, when he contested for the office of the governor of the state against the endorsement of Amaechi. Observers say this elections would have been an opportunity for Wike and Amaechi to test their political strength again, but the Supreme Court foiled that or so it seemed until reports said APC and Amaechi supporters may have voted for a particular candidate and political party. Until the final results are announced, it may not be easy to predict the likely outcome of that last minutes development. As it stands, PDP is still a PDP state.

    Verdict: PDP strong

     

    DELTA STATE

    Before the Governorship and House of Assembly Elections, we predicted that Delta remains a PDP stronghold. With the victory of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of PDP, nothing has changed in the South-south state.

    True to many predictions, Delta State also voted for the PDP and its candidates during the Presidential and National Assembly elections. But for Senator Omo-Agege and a handful of House of Representatives candidates who won for the APC, it would have been an all PDP affair.

    It would be recalled that out of the 1,267,773 valid votes cast in the state during the 2015 presidential election, PDP got 1,211,405 votes, while APC got 48,910 votes. Also the party won in 23 local government areas out of 25 in the state in the presidential race.

    Overall, the PDP polled 594,068 votes across the 25 local government, while All Progressives Congress scored 221,292 votes. PDP won the election in Aniocha South, Aniocha North, Oshimili South, Oshimili North, Ika South, Ika North-East, Burutu, Sapele, Ughelli South, Okpe, Warri South, Warri South West, Warri North and Udu. The other areas where the PDP also won are Ethiope West, Bomadi, Uvwie, Isoko North, Isoko South, Ndokwa East, Ndokwa West, Burutu and Patani. APC won in Ethiope East and Ughelli North. This goes to show the dominance of PDP.

    This feat was repeated during the Governorship elections. The State Returning Officer of INEC, Prof. Seth Accra-Jaja, Vice Chancellor, Federal University, Otuoke, Bayelsa, while declaring PDP’s Okowa winner of the contest in Asaba, said, “Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa of the PDP polled a total number of 925,274 votes to defeat his first runner up, Chief Great Ogboru of the All Progressive Congress who polled a total of 215,938 votes.”

    Okowa won in 23 out of the 25 local government areas of the state.

    Verdict: Delta remains PDP stronghold

     

    CROSS RIVER STATE

    Even before the elections, we said PDP is poised to retain the Government House in Calabar. This is because in spite of some improvement in the visibility of the opposition APC after the last 2015, it was obvious PDP remains good enough to repeat its 2015 landslide victory in the state. One of the reasons for that prediction was the internal division in APC, which left it with two factions that at a time produced two governorship aspirants, namely Usani Usani Uguru (a serving Minister) and John Enoh.

    Until the Election Day, insiders said the two factions failed to reach a peaceful accord in spite of several efforts by party leaders like ex-Governor Clement Ebri and Chief Edem Duke, as well as the national leadership of the party to reconcile them.

    This was unlike the case of the ruling PDP, where Governor Ben Ayade and his predecessor, Liyel Imoke, clearly retained firm grips on the politics of the state. The harmonious relationship between the duo, in spite of insinuations that they fell apart at a time, helped the ruling PDP to wax strong.

    Its performance at the Governorship and State Assembly Elections confirmed the permutation. INEC announced that its candidate, Governor Ben Ayade won the governorship election with a great margin.

    He polled a total of 381,484 votes to defeat the All Progressives Congress candidate, Senator John Owan-Enoh, who polled 131,161 votes, while the Social Democratic Party candidate, Eyo Ekpo polled 4,818 votes.

    It would be recalled that apart from winning the Presidential Election in the state, PDP also got all the three senatorial seats, thus confirming its dominance there. According to INEC report, the PDP Senators-elect for Cross River State are Oko Rose Okoji (North); Onor Sandy Ojang (Central) and Bassey Gershom Henry (South) all of PDP.

    Verdict: PDP strong

     

    AKWA IBOM STATE

    With the victory of PDP in Akwa-Ibom State, observers who had predicted strong presence of APC in the South-south state, following the defection of former Governor Goodswill Akpabia to APC, agree today that Governor Emmanuel Udom-led PDP remains in obvious control of the politics of the state.

    In fact, keen observers noted this fact even before the Governorship and State Assembly Elections. They cited the outcome of the hot contest between President Muhammadu Buhari and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar during the Presidential Elections as a proof that the South-south state remains a PDP stronghold. To analysts who argued that Akpabio’s factor will single handedly turn the table against PDP, the most shocking result of the first elections was Akpabio loss in his re-election bid during the Senatorial Elections.

    At that stage, even the most enthusiastic followers of the former Minority Leader of the Senate admitted that the APC would be going into the governorship election as the underdog while the PDP, having confirmed its strong hold on the politics of the state, will work to further consolidate its hold. This it did during the Governorship and State Assembly Elections, just as we predicted in our last prediction before the elections.

    According to the results declared by INEC, Emmanuel won the election in 30 out of the 31 local government areas of the state. He polled a total of 519, 712 votes to emerge, winner, defeating his closest challenger, Obong Nsima Ekere of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who scored a total of 171, 978 votes.

    INEC results showed that besides Emmanuel’s retention of power at the State House, his party occupies all the three senatorial seats.

    Akpan Bassey Albert won the North- East seat, while Christopher Stephen Ekpenyong is to occupy the North West. In addition to these, the seat for the Akwa-Ibom South at the Red Chamber is to be occupied by Eyakenyi Akon Etim all of PDP.With this overwhelming performance repeated at the House of Representatives and State House of Assembly, it seems nothing much has changed in the politics of the state, except that it remains to be seen how far the APC chieftains in the state would lead what could be called the opposition to checkmate Emmanuel-led PDP government in the state.

    Sources confirmed to The Nation that local issues, especially the passion of the oil-rich areas to ensure that Emmanuel who comes from an oil-rich area, serves out his eight years, further strengthened PDP. Even outside Emmanuel’s area, supporters of what a source described as ‘equity,’ rallied round to ensure that the governor was not denied a second term.

    Except new alignments are made, insiders said Emmanuel, a former associate of Akpabio, is now more emboldened to run a government of his own. How this reality will pan out in the state’s polity remains to be seen.

    Verdict: PDP stronger; APC deflated

     

    SOUTHWEST ZONE

     

    OGUN STATE

    The 2019 general elections in Ogun state showed early flashes of being an unusual one, and the results actually turned out as such. Of course, the APC came out the winner all on fronts, but not without heavy bruises and casualties. Though it succeeded in retaining its hold on the politics of the state, the ruling APC will never be the same as ti was before the commencement of the elections.

    Expectedly, the presidential candidate of the APC, Muhammadu Buhari, won the presidential election in Ogun State with 281,762 votes. His closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, polled 194,655 votes. Buhari won in 14 of the 20 local government areas of the state while Atiku won in the remaining six council areas of the state.

    The party also won all but three of the national assembly seats across the state while also pocketing more than two-third of the House of Assembly seats in a surprise landslide victory that ran contrary to the predictions of many pundits, who, considering the uncertainties created by the decision of Governor Ibikunle Amosun to support the candidate of another party aside Dapo Abiodun of the APC. Amosun adopted Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

    In spite of the support enjoyed by Atiku and the PDP from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the APC still won the general elections in Obasanjo’s native Egbaland convincingly. And in the Yewa/Awori area of the state, the APC was able to stand its own, sharing the votes comfortably with APM and ADC, whose guber candidates hail from the zone, contrary to predictions.

    The presence of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Dapo Abiodun, two Remo sons from Ikenne-Remo and Iperu Remo respectively, in the race as APC’s vice presidential and governorship candidates, altered the age-long voting pattern of the people of this zone that has voted PDP massively since 2003. Abiodun, ably assisted by other APC chieftains like Post-Master General Bisi Adegbuyi from Ode-Remo, former Speaker Muyiwa Oladipupo in Sagamu, among others, cleared the votes in Remoland.

    Also, the APC surprisingly crawled into the PDP strongholds in Ijebu zone as its candidates won the seats and votes massively in the council areas of the zone. Shockingly, Buruji Kashamu of the PDP couldn’t deliver Ijebu zone to his party. Across the state, the APC proved bookmakers, who had said the party will struggle without Amosun, wrong by posting impressive wins.

    Abiodun of the ruling APC got 241,670 votes as against  Amosun-backed Akinlade of the APM who got 222,153 votes, to emerge as the governor-elect of the state in a dramatic manner. Candidate of the ADC, Gboyega Isiaka, emerged third with 110,422 votes, while Senator Buruji Kashamu of the Peoples Democratic Party was fourth with 70,290 votes.

    Verdict: APC troubled but strong

     

    LAGOS STATE

    In spite of the early the threat to “take over Lagos” by the opposition PDP, most observers of the politics of the state still predicted that APC will win convincingly in Lagos State at the general elections. Pundits were even of the opinion that the opposition PDP will perform poorer than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC a good fight in all the elections.

    However, the PDP gave the ruling party a huge scare with its performance of its candidate in the presidential election. President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC won the presidential election in Lagos with a margin of 132,810 votes. Buhari won in 15 of the 20 local government areas in the state with an overall vote of 580,825. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP won the remaining five local government areas and came second by polling 448,015.

    After the presidential poll, pundits said the PDP greatly reduced the margin when compared to 2015 when it similarly trailed the ruling party in the presidential contest. Also, the obvious reduction in the number of votes recorded by APC in Lagos, from 792, 460 in 2015 to a 580, 825 last February became a source of worry to leaders and supporters of the party in the state.

    Although the APC in Lagos won all the three senate seats and garnered almost all the House of Representatives seats in the state, pundits warned the party to be wary as the governorship election approached if it intends to stop the desire of the opposition PDP to invade the state politically. The result of the presidential contest in the state, to many, was a subtle confirmation that the PDP was waxing stronger in the state.

    There were widespread fears that unless the ruling party upped its game before the guber poll in the state, the opposition PDP could perform better than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC a good fight in all the elections. APC scored 811,994 to defeat the PDP which had 659,788 in the governorship race back then. Challenged, APC went to work. Its candidates campaigned more vigorously and the party made effective alliances and changes.

    Then the governorship election came and the APC showed the world that PDP’s performance in the presidential election was a flash in the pan. The candidate of APC, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, was declared the winner of the governorship election. Sanwo-Olu, scored 739,445 out of the 977,476 total valid votes in the election, to defeat 44 other candidates to emerge as the winner and governor-elect in the state. PDP’s Jimi Agbaje, polled the second highest votes with 206,141 votes.

    APC also won all the 40 seats in the state assembly in a show of political supremacy that exposed the weakened position of the PDP in the state in spite of earlier predictions that the opposition party was waxing stronger in the state. It also became obvious that the assumed popularity of its serial candidate, Jimi Agbaje, was no longer a statement of fact as he lost woefully in his former strongholds of Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Surulere and Ojo.

    Analysts say the personality of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, national leader of the APC, and the recent restructuring carried out within the party, did the tricks once again for the ruling party. Also, unlike in 2015 when some fallouts of its party primaries caused serious frictions within its ranks, the APC is today more united that it was four years ago.

    One factor that worked against the PDP in Lagos State is the loss of majority of its prominent leaders to the APC. Chieftains like Chief Mrs. Remi Adiukwu, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and its then state chairman, Moshood Salvador, are now in the APC and worked for the party. Even Chief Bode George, though still in the PDP and openly supported its candidates, was on a self-imposed political holiday, leaving the party without a known leader in the state.

    The PDP also lost many of the areas it garnered votes in 2015 to the APC following the defection of almost all the state and federal lawmakers that won on its platform into the APC. Thus, erstwhile strongholds of the PDP like Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Ojo, Badagry and Amuwo-Odofin became APC territories with ex-PDP chieftains working for the party.

    Also, the APC ticket benefited from the acceptance enjoyed in the state by Vice President Osibajo. The choice of Osinbajo has been a hit across the Southwest and this expectedy to translated into votes on election days for the APC. And, in spite of the criticisms trailing some of Governor Akinwunmi Ambode’s policies and projects, observers say the APC government in the state have performed enough to keep the voters trusting its candidates.

    VERDICT: APC stronger

     

    OYO STATE

    APC lost Oyo state to the PDP largely owing to its failure to put its house in order as well as the alleged ‘sins’ of incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi against prominent individuals and institutions across the state. Observers of the politics of the state insist that the PDP as it was few weeks to the presidential election, was not formidable enough to defeat a ruling party.

    Rather, the opposition party reaped where the ruling APC lost. Not even the last minute deals brokered with the likes of ex-Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala among others, by the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, could save the party from an unforeseen defeat in the hand of Seyi Makinde, the governorship candidate of the PDP.

    To further humiliate Ajimobi for his alleged ‘sins’, his kinsmen in Ibadanland ensured that he lost his senatorial bid to his PDP challenger. Also, APC which won the presidential election in Oyo during the 2015 presidential poll, lost to PDP in the last presidential contest. In 2015, APC scored 528, 620 while PDP got 303, 376. But in 2019, the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, defeated President Buhari of the APC with a difference of 1,411 votes to win.

    Atiku won in 18 local government areas with 366,640 votes as against 365,229 scored by Buhari. The state used to be the stronghold of the opposition PDP until 2011 when majority of those chieftains who made the party tick in the state jumped ship or went into political oblivion, leaving the party in limbo. The likes of former governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala left the party.

    While Ladoja now leads the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state, Alao-Akala was the gubernatorial candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Both leaders also lost some of their chieftains to the ruling APC in recent times, especially Alao-Akala, who joined the APC briefly after dumping the PDP. Other erstwhile PDP top guns like former Senate Leader, Senator Teslim Folarin and former Secretary to the State Government, Ayodele Adigun, joined the APC.

    Before the commencement of the 2019 general elections, some observers of the politics of the state had said the PDP in Oyo State was a ghost of its glorious past and should not put up any serious challenge to the victory of the ruling APC in the elections. On the other hand, the APC, after series of disagreements between Governor Ajimobi and Communications Minister, Adebayo Shitu, appeared to have repositioned itself to rout the opposition in all the elections.

    But the PDP soon showed the world that it was capable of more surprises. While the APC was still trying to get to terms with its defeat at the presidential and national assembly elections, the opposition PDP championed a merger talk that saw a number of strong parties and political families, coming together to confront the ruling APC at the governorship election.

    Ladoja-led ZLP, Femi Lanlehin’s African Democratic Congress (ADC) and a host of others agreed to jettison their gubernatorial pursuits and throw their joint support behind PDP’s Seyi Makinde as the alliance’s consensus candidate. The success of the alliance, which many had predicted will fail, was the first sign that the APC may be in for serious trouble.

    When the election was eventually held, the APC and its candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, was floored by the PDP. The PDP candidate won 28 out of the 33 local governments in the state, leaving the All Progressives Congress with only five. Makinde received 515, 621 votes to defeat his closest rival from the APC, Bayo Adelabu, who polled 357, 982 votes. The margin of defeat is 157,639 votes.

    Verdict: PDP is the more popular party in the state

     

    ONDO STATE

    In spite of the state not being under the control of the party, the then presidential candidate of the APC Buhari was declared winner of the presidential election in Ondo State. He polled 299, 889 votes to beat former President Jonathan of the PDP, who got 251, 368 votes, according to results declared by INEC. The result came as a surprise to many pundits who had thought the PDP will ride on the popularity of the then Governor Olusegun Mimiko to clinch victory.

    But last February, Buhari and the APC lost Ondo State. This was in spite of the fact that the state is governed by the APC under Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, and it was assumed by many that Atiku’s party, the PDP has little or no presence in the state before the elections. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP scored 275,901 votes to defeat President Buhari of the APC who scored 241,769 votes.

    The APC also struggled to win just one senatorial seat while the opposition PDP clinched two. Akeredolu’s party also lost a good number of the House of Representatives seats it won in 2015. The result, many claimed, were the outcome of the governor’s alleged disagreement with the choices of APC candidates in the national assembly elections. There were strong claims that he was backing candidates on the platform of the Action Alliance.

    The disagreement between Governor Akeredolu and Senator Ajayi Boroffice, who worked against one another in the 2019 general elections, so weakened the APC in the state that many pundits averred that if there had been a gubernatorial election in the state this year, the ruling party would have conveniently been defeated by the PDP which showed more unity of purpose all through the elections.

    Although the APC appeared to have buried the hatchets and worked together in the state assembly elections, a development that saw it winning more than two-third of the seats, many observers of the politics of the state are warning the leaders of the party to be wary of the PDP as the state prepares to vote for a new governor next year.

    VERDICT: APC, PDP head to head

     

    OSUN STATE

    After giving the impression that it was ready to take over the political leadership of Osun State during the last governorship election in the Southwest state, the opposition PDP appears to be fading away from the political firmament of the state so soon. The party in Osun shocked many people when it almost snatched the governorship seat of the state from the ruling APC last year in a keenly contested election.

    Shortly before then, the party emerged winner in a senatorial bye election in the state ahead of the ruling APC, sending signals that it was back and better. Many had predicted the return of the party to take over the state politically back then. But few months after that impressive showing, the same cannot be said of the party that governed the state between 2003 and 2011.

    Senator Ademola Adeleke, the candidate in the two said elections, was missing in action all through the 2019 general elections. With the exit of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola from office, many had wondered if the APC will not suffer leadership vacuum as the election approached. But Governor Gboyega proved a formidable rallying point for the ruling party as he marshaled the affairs of the APC all through the elections.

    From its performance at he polls, the APC appears to have repositioned itself for the challenges ahead. Governor Oyetola embarked on a number of fence-mending missions that analysts say yielded a lot of fruits. To add to this, the party in the state managed to conduct crisis-free primary elections to elect its candidates. Consequently, the APC went into the general elections crisis free.

    To add to the good fortune of the ruling APC and compound the political troubles of the opposition PDP, Senator Iyiola Omisore, one of the erstwhile pillars of the opposition in the state and gubernatorial candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) at the last election, pitched his tent with the APC. There was no governorship election in the state this year.

    Amidst predictions that the APC will not repeat the margin it achieved in the state in 2015, the party delivered the state to President Buhari in the presidential elections. In 2015 APC had 383,603 votes to the PDP’s 249,929. Last February, Buhari polled 347,674 votes while PDP’s Atiku got 337,377 votes, with the APC candidate leading with a margin of 10,297. APC won 18 of the 30 local governments in the state while PDP won 12.

    To further confirmed its leadership of the state politically, the APC won 22 out of the 26 seats in Osun House of Assembly while the PDP won three seats. According to the results, election into Oriade State Constituency was inconclusive. The three state constituencies won by the opposition PDP were Ede North, Ede South and Obokun.

    The 22 House of Assembly seats won by APC were those of Osogbo, Olorunda, Ejigbo, Ilesa East , Ife North, Ifedayo, Ayedaade , Ifelodun, Ola Oluwa, Atakumosa East and West, Ayedire and Boluwaduro/Boripe. Others were Egbedore ,Ife Central, lfe East, Ife South, Ila, Ilesa West, Irepodun/ Orolu,Irewole / Isokan,Iwo and Odo-Otin constituencies.

    Verdict: APC waxing stronger

     

    EKITI STATE

    In 2015, PDP won the presidential election in Ekiti State. Its candidate, Goodluck Jonathan won all the 16 local government areas of the state, according to results of the presidential election announced by INEC. PDP also won all the National Assembly seats in the state. Jonathan polled 176,474 votes ahead of Buhari who got 120, 332 votes.

    Many people have attributed the PDP’s surprise victory of 2015 largely to the widespread acceptability enjoyed by the then Governor Ayodele Fayose of the PDP and the federal might provided by the then Jonathan-led federal government. The scenario of the 2019 general elections was totally different. Kayode Fayemi of the APC is governor and the federal government is also under Buhari’s APC.

    The APC expectedly delivered the state to Buhari. Buhari of the All Progressives Congress polled 219,231 votes, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party got 154,032 votes. The APC also won the three senate seats for the state and all the House of Representative seats, leaving the PDP with nothing to show for its participation in the polls.

    Analysts explaining why the PDP lost are quick to point out that the PDP in the state now divided into two groups led by Fayose and Senate Minority Leader, Senator Abiodun Olujimi respectively. To make matters worse, the two groups are at war over who should lead the party in the state while the APC is consolidating its grip on the politics of the state.

    Governor Fayemi is reached out to members and non- members of the ruling party to come aboard and be part of his new administration. He promised that he will not discriminate against those who worked against him during the last governorship election in the state. The APC became reinvigorated by the gubernatorial victory and the party received decampees from the PDP in droves ahead of the general elections.

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ekiti State also won 25 out of the 26 seats in the state House of Assembly. INEC said election is yet to be concluded in Ekiti East Constituency 1 due to disruptions that engulfed in four of the polling units of the constituency while the exercise was going on. With these victories, it is easy to conclude that APC is back to winning ways in Ekiti while the PDP is deeply troubled.

    VERDICT: APC in charge