Key oposition figures have opened coalition and merger talks as part of strategies to wrest power from the All Progressives Congress (APC). But the ruling party, which is not sleeping on guard, is also enlarging its coast by wooing more politicians into its fold. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the challenge of alignment and realignment of forces ahead of 2027 polls.
Ahead of 2027 electioneering, key opposition figures are contending with unanticipated, but inevitable hiccups in their badly coordinated alliance talks. Observers believe the move has not generated enthusiasm because the foundation is shaky and the idea behind it is narrow, subjective and self-serving, thereby lacking the character and appeal of a movement.
Consensus building is a tall order. Unlike the alliance, coalition and merger talks that culminated in the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is the fusion of legacy parties, the mergers being mooted now may be facing a brickwall because it is anchored by individuals and not premised on group interest.
A major factor in success in the 2013 ‘collaboration plan’ was the similarity of ideas and unity of purpose among the leaders of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now president; All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), led by the late Dr. Ogbonaya Onu, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), led by Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Chief Rochas Okorocha, and the new Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Dr. Bukola Saraki and his co-travellers.
It was not a day-journey. The road was long and rough. The expedition was tortuous and challenging. It was not for the feeble-minded. The ACN National Leader, Tinubu provided the leadership, which inspired his compatriots to sustain the collective vision to effect change in 2015. Also, the merger leaders or partners were able to carry along the rank and file in the parties, thereby enabling the novel initiative to acquire a national outlook and gain widespread support, even at the grassroots.
To analysts, these conditions are lacking in the Atiku-Obi-El-Rufai adventure, which seems to pale into a peculiar grandstanding. Despite its projection in the adversarial media, it has not produced a monumental impact.
But there is still time, as the next presidential poll is about two years away. Thus, the opposition gang of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai are hanging on hope, the elixir of life.
These individuals command no troops, having lost incumbency powers and the political wherewithal to sustain a vast fanatical followership. Neither are they fully in charge of the political parties they intend to use for bargaining. In their desperation, they miscalculate, based on the spurious assumption that the Tinubu government would lose popularity due to the transcient pains of reforms. While wiping ethnic sentiments by alluding to the electoral power and numerical strength of their bloc regions, Atiku and El-Rufai inadvertently revived cross ethnic curiosity, anger and resistance to polarisation and propaganda.
Division over merger in PDP:
There are discordant tunes in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is the leading opposition party, because the talks are ill-timed.
The party is crisis-ridden, bogged down by protracted leadership squabble that seems to have defiled solution. Today, two chieftains- Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Monday Ude-Okoye- are laying claims to the position of the National Secretary. The governors on the platform of the party have asked the two warring stalwarts to step aside and allow the Deputy National Secretary, Setonji Koshoedo, to act. But Anyanwu is kicking against the compromise, hinging his decision on the recent Supreme Court judgment that is not understood by most party members.
Also, the position of the National Chairman is still vacant. The Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, does not enjoy the support of all the members of the National Working Committee ((NWC). But he is holding on to the interim leadership, leaning on a court verdict that affirms his claim till December.
Two committees set by the party; Reconciliation Panel chaired by Gen. Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Disciplinary Panel led by former Senate President Adolpus Wabara, are battling with the herculean tasks. At the national and state levels, many of the PDP chapters are not at peace.
Amid the confusion, Atiku, on March 20 at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, in company with El-Rufai, announced the plan for a coalition of the opposition against the All Progressives Congress (APC). He did it without carrying the party along after arrogating to himself the leadership of opposition.
Emphasising the significance of coalition building, Atiku said: “Opposition parties must realise that it is extremely difficult to dislodge a governing party, however unpopular it may be and however fed up the people may be with it.
“Coalition-building and outright mergers are critical for building the capacity of the opposition to achieve that goal. Our own history and examples from other countries prove that.”
However, many party stalwarts believe that it was a unilateral step; a solo effort devoid of wider consultation. Hence, according to other party chieftains, it is not a product of consensus. Without that critical collective involvement, there is no commitment.
PDP Governors: No to alliance
Frowning at the personal move being decorated as a collective agenda, PDP governors have disowned Atiku, ruling out any involvement in the merger. Rather, the governors, who are the pillars, financiers managers and ‘generalisimo’ of the party, said any political party or individual seeking a bigger platform is free to join the PDP.
Besides, the thinking in the party among top members is that reconciliation and crisis resolution should precede any inter-party cooperation.
Rising from its meeting at Ibadan, capital of Oyo State, the PDP Governors’ Forum chaired by the governor of Bauchi State, Senator Bala Mohammed, declared: “On the nationwide speculations about a possible merger of political parties, groups and / or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.
“However, the party as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”
Shedding light on the resolution, the host governor, Seyi Makinde, identified a gulf between Atiku’s coalition motive and the task before the governors. He said the merger or coalition talks are unknown to the PDP, stressing that Atiku is on his own. He emphasised that the preoccupation of the governors, for now, is rebuilding the party, adding that it is important to put the house in order before thinking about 2027.
“As a party, we have not gotten there. Our first assignment is to put the party on a sound pedestal,” he said.
The Oyo State governor said it is improper for any chieftain to just draw the party into any arrangement when the party organs do not have clue on what is being done. “They have no clue of what is in this coalition. They also have no clue whether this is personal or whether you are doing this in the best interest of the party and the people of Nigeria. Those are critical,” he added
Unlike the former vice president who is personally looking for allies, Makinde said the governors’ resolution reflected the wide consultations with party stakeholders. Demonstrating the import of consensus, he said the Ibadan meeting was validated by the party leadership, which was also invited.
“The Acting National Chairman, National Legal Adviser and the National Organising Secretary were there with us. Other members of the National Working Committee (NWC) were waiting around the venue of the meeting, just in case there would be any need for them,” Makinde said.
Apparently chiding Atiku for jumping the party’s official and conventional procedure for inter-party relationship, the governor stressed: “There must be a process. If the managers of the party, the organs of the party are going into a merger or coalition, there is need for the managers of the party to know.”
While conceding to Atiku his right to associate with anybody outside PDP, Makinde said: “Politics is a game of interest. You must be interested, you must have alignment with the wider organs of your party before you go out to meet other people.”
Other party leaders, who supported the governors’ position, said the collective interest of the party should supercede the personal interest of an individual. “The real issue is those who want to run every time without following the party’s constitutional guidelines,” intoned Dan Orbih, Edo PDP leader, who hoped that the proposed congresses would produce new leaders who will repisition the platform.
A Board of Trustees (BoT) member, Commodore Olabode George, who described the decision to disown plans for merger and coalition, said it was classic and reasonable. He suspected that Atiku’s motive for merger is personal, saying that is in pursuit of his presidential ambition.
Faulting Atiku’s bid, George, a former PDP Deputy National Chairman, said it is a bone of contention, adding that it would violate zoning.
He, however, clarified that the PDP Governors’ Forum only made solid suggestions which would be subjected to the decision of the NEC and the National Convention, the highest authorities.
Objecting to at any alliance or merger talks, he added:”How can you expect an Iroko political party to go and join other parties? People should come and join us. We are a formidable iroko tree founded by the founding fathers. They (the governors) have made their suggestions and that is the starting point.”
George warned against the repeat of 2023 mistake by the PDP when it neglected zoning, saying that the party would pay dearly for it. He also said while Atiku is free to vie for president, PDP should not make him the flag bearer. He said if Atiku is given the ticket, the party would collapse.
“Atiku cannot be PDP presidential candidate. There is zoning, which must be adhered to. The North had eight years. The South should have eight years. Atiku cannot pick the ticket of PDP. If he picks it, it is the end of the party,” he said.
Other chieftains, who canvassed the same arguments, said for mergers to succeed, it should not be driven by a narrow, egocentric and particularistic motive of a manipulative actor, whose selfish ambition is to fulfil a marabout’s prediction.
They believe that it should be premised on the great idea of how to reorder society and improve the lot of the people.
Showunmi, a vocal Ogun State PDP chieftain, doubted if the merger talks are motivated by such ideas. He described the hurried resort to merger as a lazy approach, saying that it is misguided to think that unseating the ruling president requires only a merger. He said rather, PDP should package itself as a alternative route to power by resolving its protracted crisis and demonstrating the competence and capacity of a formidable opposition.
“It’s very lazy and extremely annoying that a political party like PDP is not working very hard in the field to try to make itself electable. And to do that, they need to stop the quarrel, one. Number two, they need to do a differentiation of why people should vote for them.
“You can’t be speaking from the same side as the ruling party. You are not as efficient as them, and you want people to dump them for you. You can’t be saying, ‘I want to be president,’ and your only pathway for president is not to get into the field and start working, but to sit there and be talking as some people are going to come and join you,” he said.
Showunmi, who queried the feasibility of the merger, retorted: “When you bring all six of you together, which of you have agreed to be the president? Then, all of you will bolt out of the arrangement, claiming that you didn’t get what you want. You who cannot even endure in a legacy party like PDP, are you the ones that will endure if you go to another party and you don’t get what you want?”
In his view, the opposition parties should present realistic, actionable and verifiable ideas, rather than relying on alliances.
“You are not going to come and defeat any incumbent just by thinking that you can say you are harvesting misery. The bottom line is that you must be bringing to the table realistic, actionable, verifiable, at least hopeful ideas,” he added.
Showunmi, who also warned against allowing divisive figures to infiltrate opposition parties, highlighted the potential danger of alliances with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
He warned the SDP national chairman, Shehu Gabam, against fraternising with aggrieved defectors from other parties who would invade the platform with an intention to dictate and dominate, the same attitude that led to the destruction of their party.
Atiku adamant, says it is coalition or nothing:
Atiku, who is used to intra-party battles, returned the salvos from the governors, saying that the alliance talks are unstoppable.
“Indeed, the coalition train has left the station and would have multiple stops to bring on board Nigerians of all shades,” he wrote on his X handle.
The interpretation, according to analysts, is that there is an imminent parting of ways between the former presidential candidate of PDP and his political party in the build-up to the 2027 election.
Apparently hinting about likely defection from the PDP, Atiku said: “Whatever vehicle that will give us good governance in the future of our children and grandchildren; that is the vehicle we are going to ride on.”
At a meeting with a delegation of the PDP from Nasarawa State, Atiku insisted that the governors cannot stop the merger. The team was led by Alhaji Jibirin Sabo Keana and members of ‘National Opinion Leaders,’ headed by Yusuf Sheriff Banki.
Atiku said: “The pan-Nigerian coalition that I am building is in conjunction with other leaders and stakeholders across political divides and regions.The ‘Nigerian Movement’ is being powered by Nigerians desirous of reclaiming and rebuilding their country from across the nooks and crannies of our country.”
He said leaders from various parties, including the APC, PDP, Labour Party (LP) and others, have been meeting to forge a new path towards a better Nigeria. He referred to the initiative behind the coalition as “Sabuwar tafiya” in Hausa, translating to “a new pathway” in English.
A long standing ambition:
Despite his tutelage under the Tafida Katsina, the late Major General Shehu Yar’Adua, and his long years in politics, Atiku, according to observers, has continued to make costly mistakes. One of the wrong calculations is thinking that younger elements who are now governors on the platform of his party are not central to his quest to fulfil his presidential aspiration. Obviously, there is communication gap between them and his camp of old stalwarts.
Also, the feeling that only the votes of the North can take him to Aso Villa is a fatal error of judgment.
But, a Lagos PDP chieftain, Segun Adewale, believes that the former vice president is an asset and an experienced politican who can actually lead the party to victory.
“Atiku has been contributing to the party for years. Atiku would have won in the 2023 presidential election. Anti-party activities are what led the PDP to where it is today, where people are suffering. PDP would have been in power after the 2023 elections,” he said.
A stalwart, Dr. Ladan Salihu, who agreed with the assertion, rejected the governors’ views, warning that it is unconstitutional for the Forum to hijack the responsibilities of the National Executive Committee (NEC).
He suported the push for coalition by Atiku, saying that it would boost the chance of opposition at the poll.
However, Salihu who believes that Atiku will run again, also agreed that coalition should be the collective decision of the stakeholders. “Anything short of coalition will make President Bola Tinubu retain power in 2027,” he added.
Also, the Ogun State PDP chairman, Abayomi Tella, who supported zoning, said the governors’ suggestion may not be final because there would be room for further discussions.
If Atiku throws his hat in the ring in 2027, it will be his seventh attempt. In 1992, he vied on the platform of the proscribed SDP. But he was asked to step down for the late Chief Moshood Abiola by his sponsor, Gen. Yar’Adua. Although he bargained for the slot of running mate, it also eluded him.
As the acclaimed face of Yar’Adua’s Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), he paired with President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 as running mate. In 2003, he made a futile attempt, which also became a factor in the feud between him and his former boss.
His third attempt was in 2007, when as the candidate of ACN, he ran against Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, younger brother of his late mentor and leader. Atiku also struggled in 2011 at the PDP primary, but lost the ticket to President Goodluck Jonathan.
In 2015, he competed for the ticket in the APC, but President Muhammadu Buhari was preferred. After that, he retraced his steps to PDP, got the ticket in 2019 and lost to Buhari at the general election. Due to his penchant for defecting at will, he was labelled as an inconsistent politican.
Undaunted, he also ran against President Tinubu in 2023, but without success.
By 2027, Atiku will be 81 years. The question is: can he get the PDP ticket? If not, what are the options available to him?
Can Atiku build an opposition without PDP?
Some analysts contend that Atiku cannot be underrated because he has the clout. An experienced politican, he exploited the ethnic sentiments during the 2022 presidential primary of the PDP, ralling behind him morthern leaders who mounted pressure on delegates from the zone to give their votes to him. Suddenly, a presidential aspirant, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, withdrew from the race and teamed up with him. The former Sokoto State governor was later described by the former national chairman, Senator Iyorcha Ayu, as the hero of the convention.
But Atiku could not penetrate the G5 – the aggrieved five governors – who mounted a stiff opposition to his candidature and tilted support to the APC. The same scenario appears to be playing out now. Indeed, Atiku of 2003, who was popular among the members of the National Assembly and loved by PDP governors, is facing a difficult popularity test before the latter-day PDP Governors’ Forum. In the past, he was perceived as a bridge builder of sorts with tentacles across the regions. But, now largely perceived as a serial defector and man of shifting loyalty, that image of inconsistency may be an albatross for him in certain quarters of the party.
A chieftain, Nyesom Wike, who said Atiku is not an option, alleged that he does not keep to his words. It is evident in the way he opted for Ben Obi instead of Tinubu, and Ifeanyi Okowa instead of Wike as running mates in 2007 and 2023. Thus, there is a damage to trust.
In addition, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister said his view on power rotation has made him to offend pro-zoning crusaders who loathe any attempt to malign, marginalise and exclude their zones, particularly the South.
If Atiku defects from the PDP, it is not new. In 2006/7, he left the party for the ACN. He returned to PDP, to the consternation of Tinubu/Akande/Osoba forces, who offered him a refuge and shielded him fron Obasanjo’s arrows. Atiku also later left the PDP for ACN (APC), contested and lost the presidential primary, and went back to PDP.
Although he rode to political stardom on the wings of Yar’Adua, he has not exhibited the traits of a poweful and resilient planner, organiser, mobiliser and strategist critical to the formation, nurturing and stability of personal structure and political party.
While ACN revolved around the personality of Tinubu and CPC around Buhari, the former vice president has not been associated with a similar pathfinding initiative and action.
His defection from PDP, if he leaves, would be tantamount to his rejection by the governors, who have now taken charge of the party. The negative impact of defection often manifests in the decimation or shrinkage of followership as some supporters may refuse to also jump ship as a matter of principle.
There are puzzles: Atiku rode to Aguda House in Aso Villa as the arrowhead of the PDM. Where is the PDM today? Its core members are ageing, deserted by the stamina and vibrancy of old. Regeneration has not been contemplated by the inheritor of the legacy. The Peoples Front of Nigeria (PFN) was also founded by his mentor. It was a promising caucus held in awe and esteem. What became of it in post-Yar’Adua period?
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It took Tinubu/Buhari/Onu almost a decade to build APC, can Atiku now build a new party between now and 2027 for his presidential ambition?
Options for the gladiator:
There are three options open to the eminent politician from Adamawa State. The first is to stay on in PDP as a founding father, open talks with the governors on his proposed merger or muster the strength, inspite of the predictable resistance, to fight and win the 2027 ticket.
The second is for him to rally his depleting support base and float a new party for the realisation of his long standing ambition to rule the country.
The third is to borrow an opposition party and mobilise other smaller parties to support his candidature under the guise of realignment, alliance or merger. Available for borrowing are SDP and Labour Party(LP), which is being torn apart by protracted leadership crisis.
The three options, according to keen watchers, are challenging.
The PDP governors appear determined to revamp the party, not for Atiku, who they disowned at Ibadan. But a window of opportunity can be exploited by the Atiku camp. The influence of the PDP Governors’ Forum on non-PDP states which are left in the cold like orphans have to be ascertained and assessed. Their delegates may be fascinated by a political leader ready to galvanise them.
But how united are the PDP governors? A source said PDP governors from the South may not show absolute interest in a 2027 calculation that leaves out consideration for zoning or power rotation, which the South may not be willing to compromise or sacrifice. This tallies with the view of the Lagos PDP leader, Chief George, who insisted that Atiku’s ambition is not a priority. “How can we explain to our people that the South should not have its eight years in Aso Rock? Don’t we have people who can run for president from the South?”he asked.
According to the source, the governors are also divided over the speculated presidential ambition of Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, who refused to step down for Atiku during the 2022 primary, despite the persistent pressures of influential northern leaders.
Indisputably, some PDP governors have demonstrated open admiration for President Tinubu’s style of political accommodation. Lauding the president recently, Governor Umo Eno described him as a great leader. “Tinubu will do eight years and we will stand by him,” he added.
Party insiders also confide that governors of Plateau and Enugu are gravitating towards the president in varying degrees.
Former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido described Tinubu as a formidable, daring and adept politician, who cannot be ousted, warning that a person who overcame multiple hurdles to get to the highest office will not allow power to slip from him.
Already, the main party has technically lost Wike, Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), to the ruling party. Although he may campaign at other layers of elections in 2027 for PDP, the party can only expect him to support its presidential flag bearer in vain.
The cracks in the PDP may be to the advantage of APC in the long run. The trouble is compunded by the lack of leadership, which Atiku, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, former Vice President Namadi Sambo, Damagum and even the BoT cannot offer.
Fayose, former PDP governor of Ekiti State, who said Atiku and the PDP governors are fighting for their survival, pointed out the governors do not need Atiku to survive.
He also said the proposed alliance mooted by Atiku is a figment of imagination. “Atiku cannot step down for Obi. Obi cannot step down for Atiku. They cannot make sacrifice. How can the alliance work?” he queried.
As an observer put it, a further crack in the PDP, particularly among the governors, would leave the governors with the option of regressing to their states, with limited commitment to PDP at the centre. “The know the value of alliance. The only reason they are shying away is Atiku,” he said.
Can APC afford to sleep on guard?
The ruling party is sensitive to the gradual realignment of forces. First to jump ship was El-Rufai, who was dropped from the ministerial list, despite his high hopes. Although he and Atiku parted ways in 2006, when the former vice president was indicted by a ministerial panel headed by the former FCT minister, interests appear to be aligning.
El-Rufai is an effecive campaigner with a huge capacity for persuasion and propaganda. He is the major defector from APC, and from the CPC corner. His is in SDP, where he is being suspected because of his domineering posture. Although he had hinted that more CPC folks would also defect, none, so far, has followed suit. But a lot of consultation and wooing is going on undeground.
A major setback is that the founder of the CPC, elderstatesman Buhari, though in retirement, has categorically said that he will remain in APC. Sources said some of his former ministers may, like El-Rufai, opt out for personal reasons. Shehu Malami, former Attorney-General and Justice Minister and his Communications and Digital Economy counterpart, Isa Pantami may bid farewell to APC.
When Buhari was President, Malami and the cabal equated the bloc to the APC. But now that Tinubu of the ACN bloc is President, they are battling with fading influence. In the build up to the 2023 primary, there was no evidence that Malami worked for Tinubu. It was speculated that the lawyer wanted to succeed Buhari or at the worst, be a running mate to Godwin Emefiele, governor of Central Bank, who was said to be interested in the race. According to the sources, SDP may be their next point of call.
But the snag is that without Buhari, the potential defectors are not up to lightweights.
However, the visit by El-Rufai and his new club to Buhari, a man who once submitted that he was for everybody, but not for anyone, had made some APC leaders to be go back to the drawing board. Analysts said it is in acknowledgement of the symbolic 12 million votes, which has made the Daura-born a factor in national politics in the past.
APC National Secretary Dr. Ajibola Basiru took a spite at the CPC delegation to Buhari, describing them as idle, indolent political jobbers who are chasing shadows. “APC is not threatened,” he said.
Although there is no correlation between the visit of APC leaders to Obasabjo in 2014 and the subsequent electoral victory of the party in the 2015 presidential poll, APC leaders are not willing to leave anything to chances ahead of 2027.
Through their correspondent visit to Buhari in Kaduna, in greater numbers that dwarfed and intimidated their rivals, they succeeded in drumming home the point that the CPC bloc is still intact in APC and loyal to the President.
A prominent member of the caucus, Sumaila Kawu, chided El-Rufai for projecting his personal affair as group interest, clarifying that he left APC because he was not considered for ministerial job. He said Tinubu assisted the leader of the group, Buhari, to win in 2015 and 2019, adding that one good turn deserves another.
During the visit, the CPC bloc laid to rest the rumour of a planned defection, reiterated their support for Tinubu and pledged their loyalty to the ruling party. The communique was signed by 20 prominent members, including former Nasarawa State CPC Governor Tanko Al-Makura, former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari and former Education Minister Adamu Adamu
Other signatories are Senator Ibrahim Musa, Senator Mustafa Salihu, Farouk Adamu Aliyu, Almajiri Geidam, Waziri Bulama, Dr. Nasiru Ladan Argungu, Dr. Dominic Alancha, Ayuba Balami, Osita Okechukwu, Chief Okoi Obono-Obla, Lucy Ajayi, Captain Bala Jibrin, Uche Ufearoh, Alh. Yusuf Salihu, Abubakar Maikudi, Mutallib Badmus, Alh. Muhammed Ahmed Datti, Muhammed Etsu, Chief Jerry Johnson and Alhaji Alkali Ajikolo.
The statement reads: “We, the undersigned leaders and committed members of the former CPC, who were part of those instrumental in the historic merger that gave birth to the APC, hereby issue this statement to clarify our unalloyed loyalty to our great party and express firm solidarity with the administration of President Tinubu.
“Recent misleading narratives suggesting a defection or disaffection among CPC stakeholders are false, mischievous, and should be ignored.
“We remain integral to the APC and are fully aligned with its leadership and vision. We stand firmly with the APC. We wish to state categorically that we have neither left the APC nor do we intend to leave.
“The CPC bloc remains one of the legacy foundations of the APC, and we are resolute in our commitment to the party and its progressive ideals.
“The APC is our collective project: As part of the legacy parties that formed the APC, we take pride in the sacrifices made to build a platform that promotes national unity, justice, and development.
“We will not allow some people to dismantle the party we helped to build through years of tireless work and dedication.
“We reject the politics of division and desperation. Attempts to create disunity within the party and the country do not reflect the will or position of the genuine CPC core members, and it is unacceptable.
We support President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda. We align ourselves fully with the economic and governance reforms being undertaken by President Bola Tinubu. Though challenging, these policies are necessary steps to rebuild our economy and secure a better future for all Nigerians.”
But, the CPC bloc also noted the complaints of the aggrieved defector. Therefore, it called for the resolution of internal discontent through due process, and better engagement and communication by the party leadership.
The statement added: “While we acknowledge that some party members may feel sidelined, we emphasise that such grievances are not exclusive to any one bloc. We advise those concerned to seek redress through constitutional channels within the party and not to resort to negative public agitation or hasty exits from the party.
“Our democracy and party must be strengthened, not weakened. At this critical point in Nigeria’s democratic journey, it is imperative for all APC members—especially those with deep roots in the party’s formation—to work together to preserve its legacy and help consolidate Nigeria’s democracy.
“We must avoid actions that erode our unity and the stability of the nation. We call on the leadership of the APC to scale up engagement with members across all levels. Strengthening internal communication will reduce tension, foster inclusiveness, and enhance support for the party’s programs. Party unity must be nurtured continuously in order to sustain the gains and to secure the future.
“The CPC family remains a vital pillar of the APC and will continue to play a responsible role in its growth and the progress of Nigeria.”
Former Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, said those spreading the rumour that the bloc will quit are mischievous.
He also described former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as a “ bitter and selfish politician.”
“It is not true; there is nothing like members of the defunct CPC wanting to move out of APC. Our certificate, the certificate of CPC, was part of what formed APC. So, how can we leave? To go where? This is our party,” he emphasised.
Aliyu, who clarified that Buhari did not endorse El-Rufai’s defection, urged the APC leadership to engage all blocs in the party to prevent competition and disunity before the next poll.
He added: “Politics is about engagement. Politics is about the interests of groups, people and so on.
“That is what we are saying: engage more; not only with people from the defunct CPC, but even from the PDP, so that in 2027, there will be less competition.”
While few may be leaving APC, many are defecting to the party from the opposition parties, including PDP, LP and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). They include state and federal lawmakers, chairmen of boards and other actors. Others stay in their parties, but extend support to Tinubu. An example is Ekiti PDP leader Fayose, who is unapologetic about his support for the president.
Is SDP beautiful bride?
With two senators and a few other elected public officials in few states, SDP is augmenting its deficiency by noise making in the media. The party is being galvanised by its former presidential candidate, Adebayo Adewole, a rich lawyer and businessman with a gift of the garb.
SDP structures are not strong across the states and efforts to package it as the incarnate of Abiola’s SDP of Third Republic has been futile.
However, like the LP, the SDP can become another borrowed platform where salvos can be fired at the ruling party.
A gap in the membership composition of SDP now is lack of similarity of ideas. What the new defectors stand for contrasts sharply with the puritanical posture of old SDP members, who canvass the cleansing of the morally, economically and politically decadent society.
The deep suspicious is rooted in the clear belief that those defecting into the fold only requre a temporary refuge and platform for bargaining in 2027. Yet, their defection would compel the harmonisation of structures for the purpose of accommodating them as joiners.
SDP National Secretary Dr. Olu Agunloye, described El-Rufai as an intelligent person; an achiever. But he said his motivation for defecting should be scrutinised. “The key issue is not about how to welcome or celebrate him but what he is bringing on the table and what his motives and programmes are,” he added.
Adewole, who is also ambivalent about the worth of defection, said: “The issue is that I see him as an asset, as a hard-working person and he has a verifiable and measurable track record of public performance. What I believe is that he has his weaknesses which he needs to work on. But I am not his mentor or therapist.
“What I know is that Nigerians have a bird’s eye view of el-Rufai. They will consider some of the comments he’s made and some other aspects. Overall, Nigerians will say: ‘Here is a very good public servant.”
Kwankwaso and NNPP:
The influence of NNPP is not beyond Kano State, the base of its leader, former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. The party is maintaining its hold on that stronghold when its founder remains a crowd puller. But further membership drive is shallow as the party has not been able to extend its tentacles to other states.
Kwankwaso is still nursing a presidential ambition. Some party insiders believe that if he returns to the APC early enough, he has prospects after the second term of Tinubu, when power automatically shifts to the North. Any alliance with Atiku leaves the Kano kingpin with nothing because both of them are pursuing presidential ambitions. The possibility of Kwankwaso accepting to be running mate to Obi is also remote, a source said.
Scores of NNPP members have defected recently to the APC, following the campaign for the enlargement of coast by Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, who has embarkedon an aggressive membership drive for the party.
The Kwankwaso factor has endured and any alliance with the party by APC will boost its chances in 2027.
NNPP is incapable of solely installing Kwankwaso as president.
LP in distress:
LP sprang surprise in 2023 presidential election when its candidate, Obi, through the support of scattered ‘Obidients,’ polled over six million votes. Social media warriors hailed the feat, saying that a third force had emerged in national politics.
Largely perceived as a ‘structureless’ party, the party shocked observers. This is Obi’s source of motivation as he gazes at 2027.
However, the party is now fractionalised and rudderless, with the three factions – Julius Abure, National Careraker Committee (NCC) headed by Senator Esther Nenadi-Usman and Lamidi Apapa – working at cross purposes. The three factions are interpreting the recent Supreme Court judgment in ways that suit them.
Nenadi-Usman’s interim leadership, backed by the lone LP governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, has taken over the control of the party, although Abure still holds on to the key of the party’s national secretariat.
The position of LP founder, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), is that Abure’s tenure has expired. But, Apapa, Deputy National Chairman (South), who made a futile effort to summon the NWC meeting during the week, is kicking. Citing the inexplicable judgement, he is laying claim to leadership, which he believes was vacated by Abure.
Already, the leadership squabble is taking its toll on the Anambra chapter where Abure and Usman conducted parallel governorship primaries that threw up two candidates – George Moughalu and Jude Umejiego.
To Presidential aide David Bwala, the unresolved crisis in LP is an indictment of Obi, a person who wants to rule the country, but cannot manage the party that should serve as vehicle to power.
Unless LP puts its house in order, it may not be an attractive merger or coalition partner. Other bigger parties may, therefore, seek coalition or alliance with the lone governor on its platform, and not the party as a group.
