Category: Insight

  • TRUMP 2.0 The second coming

    TRUMP 2.0 The second coming

    Four years after he was defeated at the United State’s presidential election, Donald Trump has made a surprise return to the White House. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the factors that shaped the poll and made the former president to bounce back.

    Donald Trump, 78-year old wealthy businessman and Republican candidate, has returned to the White House, which he vacated four years ago when his re-election bid as United States president collapsed like a pack of cards.

    He was defeated by Democratic President Joe Biden, who like Barack Obama, who handed over to him, could not handover to a fellow party stalwart.

    Trump’s struggles are full of lessons. He won by the grace of rare resilience, hardwork, courage, determination, focus, and tenacity of purpose. But, he also profitted from the deep seated tradition of racism and gender bias, which  to a certain degree, shaped the whites’ perception about a coloured rival, whose gender category has never been installed in the State House.

    While Trump never directly unfolded any offensive gender- biased campaign, he definitely manipulated the tools of nationalism, portaying himself as a patriot who can be absolutely trusted to realistically defend the interests of Americans who felt threatened by the soaring number of immigrats who trooped into the country in geometric proportions.

    His slogan: ‘America will be great again,’ was both electrifying and captivating. It inspired those traditional states nurturing nostalgic feelings about a protective greener pastures into electoral action.

    His speech at the midnight when it was evident that he had won bore testimony to his appeal to national pride, values and beliefs. He said:” I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 45th president and your 47th president… I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body. I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe, and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve.”

    Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the most powerful country on Monday, January 20, next year at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. The date, which was set in 1845, has not changed.

    His triumph over Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party beat the imagination of anti-Republican elements who loathed the push for a come back because they were not impressed by his strange and unconventional styles during his first term in office. Trump’s styles have been at variance with the public statemanship attributes of his illustrious Democratic and Republican predecessors. He has been ubduely aggressive, taking on opponents in a war-like manner and coming across as a strong, unbending and strict leader.

    In his first coming, Trump, a well known figure, but who was not widely rated as a politician of immense stature, succeeded President Obama, beating an experienced politician, Senator Hillary Clinton, former First Lady and ex-Secretary of State.

    Trump has made history as the first US president in over 130 years to return to office after suffering a defeat. He therefore, takes after the Democrat, Grover Cleveland, 22nd and 24th president, who served between 1885 and 1889, and later, 1893 and 1897.

    The American model of converting and compressing popular votes into electoral college votes has endured for centuries. It is curious to developing countries in Africa which are lagging behind in the development of home-grown democratic system backed by strong institutions. The model has also distinguished electoral democracy in United States from the brands adopted by other matured democracies. By constitution, convention and ethos that have been internalised, the states award all of their electoral college votes to whoever wins the popular vote, and this is confirmed after meetings on December 17. Thereafter, the new US Congress will meet on January 6 to count the electoral college votes and confirm the new president. Ironically, Harris, who is the titular head of Senate, and Trump’s rival, has a role to play during the confirmation.

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    That ceremony face a theat four years ago, but the fortified institutions of American democracy withstood and resisted the deviant onslaught when after the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden’s victory.

    Planning

    Election is not a tea party anywhere in the world. It requires meticulous planning. Vying for the highest office in US is rigorous. The first personal condition is sound health. It was an issue during the early phase of electioneering, as age tended to have deprived outgoing President Biden the vibrancy and agility required for a rigorous campaign.

    Republicans were better prepared, unlike Biden’s decision to step down, which was an after thought. Biden was given the right of first refusal, a standard party policy and practice of limiting the tendency towards a divisive, if not, a destabilising shadow poll.

    The decision to step down at the late hour left little room for choice. Although Obama suggested a primary for the choice of another candidate, mood of the party accommodated Biden’s inclination to be succeeded by his deputy.

    Planning also requires personal conviction, wit and capacity for adaptation, as Trump had demonstrated.

    Trump had described Biden as a leader who could not fly, after he missed his steps in the public. When the president dropped out, pro-Harris forces turned the heat on Trump as the next old man who should give way. But Trump shook off the label and indulged in some forms of physical culture, stretching out his bands, raising his voice and expanding his intenerary in demonstration of curious agility at his age.

    He was not a reluctant candidate like former President Shehu Shagari of Nigeria, who loved being a senator than being the Commander-in-Chief. He backed up his ambition with his vision and ideas, showing a direction. He believed in himself,  ability and his ‘I can do spirit’ was the propeller.

    Plan implementation

    Trump was also not distracted by allusions to his antecedents, scandals and setbacks, which made him a loser four years ago. Apart from his capacity for planning, he was also good in execution of plans. Thus, he planned to take power and he took it, by surprise. He looked like a political magician. “An of-maligned turnout operation produced enough young men, black men and Hispanic voters to prevail over Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania,” said David Jackson, a commentator.

    The lesson is instructive. Some people give up easily when things do not go their own way. Courage is an asset in politics, and moreso in governance. Perseverance is also key. The resolve to succeed is an important factor. These virtues also aided President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria to overcome the hurdles of last year’s electionering.

    Trump built his campaigns around the ideas dictated by the majority, allowing the crowd of supporters to take ownership of his candidacy. He aligned his vision and programmes with people’s needs. He said he had no apology for being a conservative. He successfully wiped up sentiments around the issues of border protection, immigration control, job regulations and preservations in American interest. The tactics resonated with Americans who treasured the message that the land was been recovered from foreigners

    Echoing that perspective, Trump’s vice presidentialcandidate, J. D. Vance, said: “We need a leader who’s not in the pocket of big business, but answers to the working man.”

    The Ohio Senator, who spoke at the Republican National Convention, added: “A leader who won’t sell out to multinational corporations, but will stand up for American companies and American industry.”

    Trump succeeded in recreating the dicotomy between whites who are in the majority and blacks who have struggled to overcome the memory of past marginalization and exclusion. Taking a defiant and sentimental position on racism without voicing it out, his message worked with those seized by elemental patriotism.

    Residual racism

    The poll outcome raised a fundamental question for coloured people. Despite its reputation as an advantageous country at the forefront of global egalitarianism, equality, equity and justice, American is not free of racism. The white majority, particularly in rural areas where there is concern for security of jobs among unskilled or non-white collar workers, adopted the Republican candidate as a liberator and hero.

    Electoral economy

    There is also a relationship between victory and financial muscle. Across most countries, election is a capital intensive project. The power of money was also a core, if not an overriding, factor in some voting areas. Rich businessmen, including founders and executives of some of America’s biggest businesses, backed the Trump-Vance ticket. An example was Elon Musk who promised to donate billions to the cause.

    Trump also successfully won over other wealthy figures:  Nelson Peltz, Steve Wynn and Miriam Adelson. While direct vote buying was ruled out, big money was put into the mobilisation and campaigns.

    According to reports, Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman endorsed Trump, saying: “A divided America is a weak America. Let’s help Trump succeed and bring the country together.”

    Venture capitalist  David Sacks took to X to praise the decision of Trump to pick Vance as his vice president. He said: “When the Twin Towers came down, J.D. Vance enlisted in the Marine Corps, gung-ho to exact justice on America’s enemies.” Sacks added: “Subsequently he came to believe the Forever Wars were a mistake. This is who I want by Trump’s side: an American patriot, with the courage to fight America’s wars but the wisdom to know when to avoid them. God bless J.D., God bless Trump, and God bless the USA.”

    Sacks, along with his wife, Jacqueline Sacks, rheld a fundraiser for Trump at his Pacific Heights mansion. The event was co-hosted by Sri Lankan businessman Chamath Palihapitiya

    In May, a Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., received $50 million from businessman Timothy Mellon, following the former president’s conviction. Also, Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, gave $300,000 to the Trump campaign after the ruling.

    Venture capitalist Douglas Leone, former managing partner at Sequoia Capital, who criticised Trump in 2021 after rejecting the election results, decided to support him.

    Blackstone chief executive Stephen Schwarzman also endorsed Trump for president as a “vote for change.”

    J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon offered praise for Trump’s first-term policies while at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.“Just take a step back and be honest,” he said.  “He was kind of right about NATO. He was kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Trade, tax reform worked. He was right about some of China.”

    Casino billionaire and Republican megadonor Miriam Adelson was the lead financier of a spending group backing Trump.

    Uline shipping and packaging company co-founder Liz Uihlein promised support Trump after donating to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ primary campaign

    An heir to the Johnson and Johnson pharmaceutical fortune and co-owner of the New York Jets, Woody Johnson, donated $1 million to a Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc. He was the U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom during Trump’s presidency.

    The Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus co-hosted an Atlanta fundraiser for Trump in April, according to Forbes.

    Other financial backers included Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm, Energy Transfer pipeline company founder Kelcy Warren, CEO of Marvel Entertainment Isaac Perlmutter, Chairman of TD Ameritrade J. Joe Ricketts, Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, former casino mogul Steve Wynn, Los Angeles real estate magnate Geoffrey Palmer, co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon, casino magnate Phil Ruffin, and Texas oil businessman Timothy Dunn.

    Power of structure and intense mobilisation

    Trump is not perceived as a man of tact or diplomacy, judging by his style of public speaking. But, he is charismatic and even foes like to listen to him, expecting jibes.

    According to analysts, the job of getting new Trump voters to actually vote belonged to a turnout setup that drew questions throughout the Republican’s presidential campaign.

    The Trump team outsourced much of its canvassing and door-knocking to private organizations. It also targeted what officials called “low-propensity voters” − people who don’t often get to the polls − as opposed to “swing” voters who could have gone for either major party candidate. Thus, Trump gave voting strength through a number of groups, particularly young men, black men and Hispanics.

    The organisational prowess was a tribute to sound strategies designed to attract different kinds of voters. Trump also campaigned in a number of urban areas with people of colour. He found success with Hispanics despite a tumultuous last phase of the campaign that included insults to Latinos and Puerto Rico by a speaker at his rally in New York, awkward comments about female voters, and violent rhetoric toward political opponents.

    In the closing days of the campaign, Trump proclaimed himself the nation’s champion and protector, even though aides told him the statements sounded patronising.

    “Well, I’m going to do it, whether the women like it or not,” Trump said in a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. “I’m going to protect them.”

    In presidential competition, these Trump voters had many motives and came from many parts of the electorate. They also turned out despite their candidate’s many other problems, including four felony criminal indictments and a conviction.

    A great comunicator endowed with adequate verbal facility, Trump employed personal propaganda. He claimed that the allegations against him are politically motivated. He told a group of Hispanic voters on Oct. 22: “I hope the public is understanding it. I hope, because I found the public to be amazingly smart. They get it.”

    Trump was found guilty in May in a New York hush money case. The dent was ignored by the majority voting public. Also ignored were his alleged involvement in the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021; his two impeachments while in office; his civil judgments in bank fraud and sexual abuse cases totaling more than $500 million; his conviction and potential prison sentence in a New York hush money case; and intense opposition that included many members of his first administration, including former Vive President Mike Pence.

    Jackson noted that Trump’s constant threats to prosecute political enemies − and perhaps use the military to quell demonstrations − led opponents to accuse him of authoritarianism and fascism.

    Overwhelming the populace, Trump’s sagacity and magnetism propelled a positive outcome. Those things that characterised his past government, including inflation, the rising cost of living, transgender rights, tax cuts and reduced business regulations, and illegal border crossings and crimes committed by migrants were properly managed.

    A political scientist, Lara Brown, author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants,” said Trump fed on deep divisions within the electorate by demonizing migrants and political opponents.

    He also said Trump convinced enough voters that he actually won the 2020 election, adding that he was deprived because of voter fraud.

    “In addition to focusing on voters’ “economic concerns by playing up their fears around crime and immigration” and ignoring more recent good economic news, Brown said Trump “has won in the way that all authoritarians do − on fear, hatred, and division,” Jackson said

    Early in the campaign, Trump played up the economy and inflation. When economic statistics improved during the fall campaign − lower inflation rates, a booming stock market − he shifted to more talk about immigration, especially crimes committed by migrants.

    Trump and Africa

    African leaders have congratulated Trump. President

    Tinubu expressed hope that his second term would bring “reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States”.

    During his first stint in the White House, critics accused Trump of dismissing Africa, having cut some funding, curbed immigration and reportedly referred to some of its nations as “shithole countries.” Thus, many Africans have reservations with justification.

    Frowning at the statement, the African Union said it was “alarmed.” “Given the historical reality of how many Africans arrived in the United States as slaves, this statement flies in the face of all accepted behavior and practice,” spokeswoman Ebba Kalondo said. She said it was “particularly surprising as the United States of America remains a global example of how migration gave birth to a nation built on strong values of diversity and opportunity.

    If African leaders have developed their countries with the human and material resources at their disposal on the continent, the perception of world leaders about the continent would not have been so demeaning.

    Experts have identified six areas of cooperation. These are trade and investment, immigration,aids, security and conflict resolution, drugs control and anti-corruption fight.

    The outgoing government has maintained partnerships in some key areas.

    Biden’s outgoing administration “tried really hard to create an impression that Africa was a valued and important partner,” said W Gyude Moore, a fellow at the Center for Global Development and former Liberian minister.

    The US has invested in the Lobito Corridor – a rail line stretching through Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that will be used to transport critical raw materials.

    In 2023, the US said it had invested more than $22bn since Biden came to power. Many fear that Trump may roll back on this investment and trade, adding that he has more of a protectionist, insular outlook than Biden – one of the slogans for his first term was “America First”.

    Trump’s views on illegal immigration are clear. He promised to deport one million people who do not have legal permission to be in the United States.

    African immigrats are livid. In 2022, around 13,000 African migrants were recorded at the US-Mexico border, according to US Customs and Border protection data. By 2023, the figure had quadrupled to 58,000. The migrants said they were fleeing from war, persecution and poverty.

    Africa gets most of its aid from the US, put at $3.7bn this year. In his first term, Trump made proposals to slash foreign aid worldwide. The Council on Foreign Relations,  think-tank bsed in Washington,  said if the cuts had been implemented, “traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated.”

  • Why Kamala Harris lost

    Why Kamala Harris lost

    Donald Trump pulled off a historic White House comeback in Monday’s United States presidential election when he comfortably defeated the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris. The election had been projected as a very tight race. But, it became obvious that Trump was coasting home to victory after he swept several key battleground states and won a commanding lead in the national popular vote.

    Harris, President Joe Biden’s deputy and the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants was hoping to become America’s first woman president. But she failed in that bid. Two women have now lost elections to Donald Trump. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump defeated former First Lady Hillary Clinton to secure his first term. In this week’s election, Harris, a sitting vice president, also lost under similar circumstances. What went wrong? Democrats across America must be asking themselves. Has it got anything to do with her skin colour or is it sexism rooted deep in American culture that has blocked yet another woman from occupying the White House? Democrats are now questioning why the choice of Harris. Was she the right choice to take on Trump? Should they have looked elsewhere? Or should they have stuck with Biden?

    The Democratic Party was basking in popularity when Harris became the party’s nominee for the presidential ticket, following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race under pressure from within the party in July, following that fateful debate in June. Her emergence energised the Democratic Party Biden’s horrifying debate performance against Trump. The campaign pushed a message of joy, optimism, and hope. This encouraged engagement in Democratic politics again, leading to a surge in fundraising at the grassroots level.

    However, after such a remarkable start to her campaign, Harris failed to close the deal by defining what she stands for and what she intends to bring to the table. In an unfortunate echo of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, Harris spent far too much time trying to argue that Trump was unfit for the presidency and too little time delivering a coherent message about why she would be better. Despite overpowering Trump in their only debate on September 10 and raising more than $1 billion in donations in just three months—a new record—Harris often floundered when challenged to deliver a convincing summary of her agenda on critical issues such as the economy and immigration. She also fumbled badly in explaining her flip-flops on many issues.

    Observers believe that the country was crying out for change when Harris, 60, became her party’s candidate. As a result, it is widely believed that Trump won because Harris inherited a tough situation from Joe Biden — and ultimately could not overcome it. According to close watchers of American politics, when she joined the presidential race in July, after Biden stepped aside, she faced three formidable obstacles. First, the economy is in bad shape. But, this not peculiar to the US. Following the pandemic, there has been a global trend of incumbent parties, even in developed democracies across the world, struggling, with inflation hitting the rooftops. The situation in the US is telling on Americans from all walks of life and naturally voters were expecting a change.

    The second issue is Biden’s unpopularity. The president has become unpopular long before his disastrous debate with Trump, and poll after poll showed voters irate with his handling of the economy and immigration. Foreign policy, particularly the Israel-Gaza war that divided Democrats’ coalition, was a problem too. Since Harris had served in his administration as vice president, she was expected to figure out what to do about that.

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    Typically, such dynamics would seem to point to a “change” election where the incumbent party is booted. In such elections, the opposition can often put the blame for the current state of affairs on the incumbents, make vague promises that they will do things differently, and ride to victory. In the end, Harris took a kind of middle path. She downplayed, disavowed, or simply avoided mention of many of the progressive policies she had supported back in 2019. The vice president wanted to keep the Democratic coalition happy, pleasing as many people as she could, rather than taking sides in any factional fights.

    In addressing Biden’s record, too, Harris tried to strike a balance. She decided not to criticize Biden, throw him under the bus, or break with him — or the Biden-Harris administration’s policies — in any significant way. When pressed about voter anger over inflation and unauthorized immigration, she did not acknowledge the error. Rather, she tried to argue that the economy was doing well now and blamed Trump for not supporting a bipartisan immigration bill.

    However, it was a futile effort; a large chunk of the American public were more resentful of inflation under Biden than they were about Trump’s attempted election theft four years ago. So, they simply turned back to the candidate they kicked out of office just four years ago.

    The defining moment of Kamala Harris’s campaign, according to reports, was when she appeared on ABC’s “The View” last month; it was supposed to be a friendly forum to introduce herself to Americans unfamiliar with her story. But, the Democratic presidential nominee instead struggled to explain what she would do differently than President Biden. “Not a thing that comes to mind,” Harris, the incumbent vice president, told the hosts.

    In an interview with Politico in the final weeks before the election, Trump campaign manager Jason Miller agreed that it was the turning point of the race. This came after weeks of polling in Harris’ favour following her abrupt—and, by some accounts, undemocratic—emergence at the top of the ticket on July 21. Miller said it was Harris’ botched answer to an easy question from a friendly TV anchor, Sunny Hostin, co-host of The View, who asked Harris on Oct. 8 if she would have done anything differently from Biden over the past four years. “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” Harris awkwardly responded, horrifying her advisors and sparking an eruption of Trumpian triumphalism online. In subsequent weeks, Harris tried to recover, telling CNN, “[My administration] will not be a continuation of the Biden administration,” but the damage was done. “Who would have thought that Sunny Hostin from The View really killed Kamala Harris’s candidacy?” Miller said. “But you can make the case that Sunny did.”

    Harris faced a nearly impossible task by trying to defend Biden’s poor disapproval ratings, because almost two-thirds of voters at the time believed the nation was on the wrong track. Though the government had consistently maintained that the president and his vice deserve a second term based on the government’s remarkable legislative record, including a major bipartisan infrastructure spending bill, historic climate investment, and the CHIPS and Science Act, all of which poured billions of dollars into manufacturing and clean energy. This was one reason Biden refused to step aside for as long as he did, despite concerns about his age and mental acuity; because he was that he was convinced voters would sooner or later realize how effective a president he has been.

    It also appears that Harris entered the contest late and did not have enough time to plan and execute her campaign. After Biden’s long delay in withdrawing from the campaign, Harris was thrust from the vice presidential shadows into public view but had scarcely more than three months to sell herself. Trump has had eight years to do the same—including the four years of his first term as president and the four years since. This culminated in a primary battle against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Trump’s former United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, which allowed him to redefine his presidency, absurdly, as one of the best in U.S. history. With inflation and two wars raging abroad, many voters fondly recalled a pre-pandemic world that was mostly at peace and economically prosperous under Trump. After Trump decisively won the GOP nomination, even Republicans like Haley who had once opposed him kowtowed and embraced his falsehoods—most of them, anyway.

    Despite the foregoing, it can be said that the United States is not ready for a woman president yet. Despite Harris’s role as the first female vice president, she failed to secure the backing of American voters to lead the nation. As a large percentage of American men were believed to have rooted for Trump. Many of these male doubts about the vice president were fanned with fierce cynicism in what was known as Trump’s “bro-whispering” strategy—with Trump sitting for interviews with influencers, comedians, and podcasters who have huge audiences of young men. Many of these target audiences were young white men who felt sidelined by progressive causes that tend to favour women, LGBTQ+ individuals, and minorities, and who weren’t as responsive to Harris’s relentless focus on reproductive rights. But Trump also reached out to young non-white voters.

    A report quoting a poll by the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School said the amount of male voters under 30 who identified as Republican increased by seven points since 2020. John Della Volpe, director of the institute, said Trump won many of this group “by weaving a hyper-masculine message of strength and defiance into his broader narrative that undermines confidence in democratic institutions.”

    The dismal performance of the Democratic Party candidate among traditional Democrats supporters, such as Blacks and Latino voters, as it happened in 2016 when Mrs Clinton was the party flag bearer, suggests that it has something to do with their gender. Trump’s victory became all-but-certain when the former president was the projected winner of the battleground state of Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. It is a state that Democrats had only lost once since 1988. That came in 2016 with Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

    The Harris campaign devoted significant resources to four Sun Belt battlegrounds − Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina − but she appeared unlikely to win any of them. And the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall” crumbled with Harris trailing Trump in Michigan and losing outright in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    The Democratic nominee lost the election in large part because she was unable to prevent core Democratic constituencies − Black, Latino and young voters − from splintering their votes. Harris underperformed with voters of colour − particularly Latino voters − but also Black voters in urban centres such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. Despite maintaining Democrats’ growing strength in college-educated suburbs, it was not enough to overcome Trump’s gains in Democratic strongholds.

    Harris won Black voters by 86 per cent/12 per cent margin and Latino voters’ 53 per cent/45 per cent, according to CNN exit polls. In contrast, in the 2020 election, Biden won Black voters by a wider 92 per cent/8 per cent margin over Trump and Latinos 65 per cent/32 per cent.

    From the beginning, Harris tried to make the race a referendum on Trump. In the final weeks of the campaign, Harris escalated her rhetoric, calling the former president a fascist, warning that he is “unhinged and unstable”, and highlighting the assessment of Trump’s former White House chief of staff, John Kelly, who alleged Trump made past admiring statements about Adolf Hitler. She increasingly leaned into framing the election as a fight for democracy, much like Biden did before he dropped out of the race in July 2024.

    “Kamala Harris lost this election when she pivoted to focus almost exclusively on attacking Donald Trump,” veteran pollster Frank Luntz said on X, formerly Twitter. “Voters already know everything there is about Trump – but they still wanted to know more about Harris’ plans for the first hour, first day, first month and first year of her administration. “It was a colossal failure for her campaign to shine the spotlight on Trump more than on Harris’ ideas,” Luntz said.

    Harris campaigned aggressively on restoring abortion access. But, at the end of the day, the 54 per cent/44 per cent margin victory she scored among women voters, according to CNN exit polls, was lower than Biden’s 57 per cent/42 per cent performance with women in 2020. Trump won male voters over Harris by the same 54 per cent/44 per cent margin as Harris won women.

    With her defeat to Trump, Harris’ dream to become the first woman President of the United States has been shattered.

  • Key takeaways in Tinubu’s cabinet reshuffle

    Key takeaways in Tinubu’s cabinet reshuffle

    By Tunde Rahman

    Months after the rumours of imminent cabinet reshuffle had filled the air with newshounds speculating which of the ministers would be dropped or retained, President Bola Tinubu eventually took the bull by the horns last Wednesday. He effected the ministerial changes, scrapping two ministries, discharging five ministers, reassigning ten and nominating seven new ones. It would mean six ministers had given way if you add the initially suspended Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Dr Betta Edu. A new minister, Dr Nentawe Yilwatda, has been nominated to replace her.

    It was the first cabinet reshuffle by President Tinubu 17 months after he assumed office. The way and manner he effected the changes were interesting. After Wednesday’s Federal Executive Council meeting, the President invited five of the 47 ministers to see him in his office. An ominous silence descended on the hallowed Council Chambers, the venue of the FEC meeting. Many in the chambers feared these five ministers were on their way out, that the sun had set on their tenures, and that the President was inviting them to convey the grim decision, a valedictory visit.

    The five ministers that were  relieved of their ministerial roles following a scientific assessment of their performance in an exercise coordinated by Special Adviser to the President on Policy & Coordination Hadiza Bala Usman were those of Education-Prof. Tahir Mamman, Women Affairs- Mrs. Uju Kennedy Ohanenye, Tourism- Mrs. Lola Ade-John, Housing Development (State), Abdullahi Gwarzo and Youth Minister, Jamila Ibrahim Bio.

    Inherent in the cabinet reshuffle was a restructuring to reinvigorate government machinery for optimal efficiency, consistent with the spirit of the much talked about Oronsaye Report. This is evident enough. President Tinubu scrapped the Ministry of Tourism, merging it with the Ministry of Arts and Creative Economy to form the Ministry of Arts, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy. He also abolished the Ministry of Niger-Delta Development and, in its place, created the Ministry of Regional Development to oversee the various regional development commissions in the country, including the Niger-Delta Development Commission and North-East Development Commission as well as the North-West Development Commission and South-East Development Commission recently established by the Tinubu administration.

    Creating separate ministries for each region like the case of Niger-Delta in the earlier dispensation would have been an unnecessary duplication and addition to the governance cost.

    As part of the restructuring, the President also ensured that there are no longer two ministers in the ministries of Police Affairs and Youth Development, thus further reducing overheads.

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    Beyond that, there are a few takeaways from the cabinet rejig and the new ministerial list.

    One, the appointment of Bianca Odumegwu Ojukwu, wife of late Ikemba of Nnewi, Odumegwu Ojukwu, as a minister is noteworthy. Lawyer and diplomat, bringing on board Bianca as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs is a round peg in a round hole, given her experience as Nigeria’s Ambassador to Ghana and later Spain. Tapping Bianca for appointment from the opposition All Progressives Grand Alliance is a mark of political tolerance by President Tinubu. Also, coming on the heels of establishing the South-East Development Commission, this appointment is a good development for the South East. Many political watchers and pundits expect the region to reciprocate the gesture in the 2027 election.

    Two, in agriculture, the establishment of the Ministry of Livestock Development is novel and a problem-solver. Animal husbandry is part of the issue at the root of the incessant farmers-herders crisis, which involves sourcing food and water for cattle. This ministry is charged with managing the livestock economy and, by inference, addressing this seemingly intractable farmers-herders problem. And if this new ministry helped to resolve the crisis, the whole issue of insecurity on our farms and its attendant effects on food supply and security would have been resolved. Perhaps to demonstrate the government’s commitment to the livestock sector reforms, a workshop on the reforms was organised a day after the new cabinet composition, during which President Tinubu told all and sundry that the livestock economy is central to his administration’s vision.

    Third, President Tinubu has set a record by affixing portfolios to the names of nominees sent to the Senate for confirmation as ministers. This makes sense because senators can now match the portfolios with the nominees’ academic backgrounds and professional experiences during confirmation hearings. This is a first in the country, and President Tinubu deserves commendation for this.

    The fourth and final point concerns the expectation of some commentators who argued that the changes were not far-reaching enough. They said they expected a tinkering of the critical sectors of the economy, particularly oil and gas and finance. However, President Tinubu has done what is needed. There is now a Minister of State, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, to complement the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Olawale Edun. As former top management staff at Zenith Bank and later Commissioner for Finance in Governor Hope Uzodimma’s Imo State, Dr. Uzoka-Anite is equally grounded in finance and economic matters.

    As it were, pressing issues in the critical economic sectors are being addressed. The policy changes introduced by the government have begun to produce positive results. This is evident in the available data. Nigeria’s revenue to debt service ratio has declined significantly, from 97% in 2023 to 68% in 2024, according to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy. The country’s foreign reserves are also on the increase. Edun says the reserves are growing organically due to the government’s decision not to defend the Naira as was done in the past. Additionally, the country’s GDP grew by 2.98% in Q1 2024 compared to 2.31% in Q1 2023. The growth in Q1 2024 was due to the impressive performance in the financial services, insurance, mining and quarrying sectors.

    Indeed, as the Americans would say, if it’s not broken, why fix it? The Tinubu administration is committed to the reforms and is implementing them faithfully. The reforms had become imperative in order to ensure sustainable growth. That the gains have yet to manifest fully is neither because the officials involved are unqualified, incapable, or unwilling to do the right thing. It’s because these reforms have gestation periods. They will fully manifest in the fullness of time, and the country will be better and more prosperous.

    *Rahman is a Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media Matters.

  • Tinubu’s cabinet shake-up: What next for survivors?

    Tinubu’s cabinet shake-up: What next for survivors?

    Last Wednesday’s cabinet reshuffle, in the wake of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 16-month reforms that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis, is the government’s strategic response to realign its personnel to achieve the ruling party’s Renewed Hope agenda. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI sought the views of observers on this development and they have provided insight into what the Tinubu administration can do to change the narratives.

    After dithering for months, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has finally yielded to public pressure to rejig his cabinet to inject some dynamism into the implementation of his Renewed Hope agenda. In political terms, a cabinet reshuffle often signals that the initial grace period has come to an end. So, it is an indication that the honeymoon is over and that appointees of the government must deliver on the promises President Tinubu made to Nigerians during the electioneering campaign that preceded his election in February last year.

    Tinubu’s lightning reform push after taking office last year had sparked hope that his administration would be an antidote to the mounting economic challenges facing the country.

    The government had put in place key reforms to engender growth and restructure the economy. For instance, in May 2023, shortly after being sworn in, Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidies as part of measures to reform the energy sector. Through the Central Bank, he equally put measures in place to unify the numerous foreign exchange windows and bridge the gaps in the official and parallel markets. There have equally been reforms in the energy sector, with attendant increases in electricity tariffs paid by certain categories of electricity consumers.

    While these reforms have been hailed as desirable by the World Bank, IMF and other development partners, based on their potential long-term impacts, they have had a ripple effect on the purchasing power of Nigerians amid skyrocketing inflation and elevated interest rates on the domestic front. Thus, 16 months later, the results have fueled discontent among Nigerians, who have staged protests amid widespread complaints. The key planks of his economic policy – devaluing the naira and the removal of petrol and electricity subsidies – have sent inflation soaring to 32.70 per cent, triggering a cost-of-living crisis. Nigerians are disillusioned because the hardship has been biting harder.

    Last Wednesday’s cabinet reshuffle, in the wake of these developments, is a wakeup call for all those serving in the government. In the exercise, President Tinubu restructured ministerial portfolios to reinvigorate his administration’s capacity to deliver on his promises to Nigerians. In the shake-up, he reshuffled his 45-member cabinet, naming seven new ministers, sacking five and reassigning 10 others to new portfolios. It includes renaming the Ministry of Niger Delta Development to the Ministry of Regional Development, winding up the Ministry of Sports, and the merger of the ministries of Tourism and Arts and Culture. Some key ministers, including those of finance, defence, national planning and two junior ministers all retained their positions. The president also appointed new ministers for humanitarian and poverty reduction, trade and investment, labour, livestock development and junior ministers for foreign affairs, education and housing.

    Despite being one of Africa’s top crude oil producers, Nigeria has become one of the world’s poorest countries. Nigerians are particularly not happy over the fact that the lifestyle of public officials does not reflect the general situation in the country. In the aftermath of the cabinet shake-up, Tinubu, who is widely regarded as a listening leader, has issued a new directive on how to reduce the cost of governance. In the directive issued on Thursday, the president has directed ministers, ministers of state, and heads of federal agencies to limit their official convoys to a maximum of three vehicles. The decision aims to curb unnecessary expenses and encourage fiscal responsibility within the government, according to a statement by the Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga.

    Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, Dele Alake, his Solid Minerals counterpart, are among those who were not affected in the cabinet reshuffle. Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, and Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, are also among those who retained their portfolios. President Tinubu has been commended for attaching the portfolios of the minister-designates to facilitate their assessment and approval by the Senate.

    But, beyond the razzmatazz surrounding the cabinet shake-up, Nigerians now expect the president and his new cabinet to pull up their bootstraps and address the numerous challenges plaguing the economy. What the cabinet rejig portends for retained ministers and incoming ones is a warning that time is running out for the administration, and that, going forward, the president would accept nothing short of excellent performance. The challenges facing the country have been mounting since the era of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), which was voted out of power in 2015. It was precisely for this reason that the former ruling party, now the main opposition party, was kicked out of office; because it failed to plan adequately and effectively. Over nine years later, the country is not yet out of the woods, socio-economically, and President Tinubu had vowed in his inaugural address and his July 31, 2023 broadcast to rejig the policies of his predecessor in office to improve the living conditions of Nigerians.

    Read Also: Tinubu destined to fix Nigeria, says sacked minister

    Many observers have given an insight into what the Tinubu administration can do to change the narratives. Security and the economy are two vital sectors that are crucial to the success of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda. Observers believe there is an improvement in the area of security, but a lot still needs to be done. For instance, the security situation has improved in the Northwest. It is highly commendable that Defence Minister, Bello Matawalle relocated to the zone to coordinate the onslaught against the bandits. A similar improvement was also noticeable in the Northeast. However, the efforts should be sustained for a meaningful impact on the economy in the medium and long term.

    A former presidential spokesman, Dr Doyin Okupe, has commended President Tinubu’s decision to scrap ‘superfluous ministries’ in his cabinet reshuffle. He said: “President Tinubu has done the needful by his mid-term rejig of his cabinet. Scrapping superfluous ministries is in line with removing waste and making government compact and effective, this is commendable. For the first time, the removal of ministers from the cabinet has not been arbitrary or sentimental, apart from an in-house key performance index report. KPMG is also said to be involved in critical performance assessment of the ministers.”

    Okupe expressed hope in the President’s Renewed Hope agenda to reposition the country. He said: “As I have personally stated in the past, President Tinubu has the capacity and leadership qualities to take Nigeria out of the economic quagmire he met on assumption of office in May 2023.”

    But, a retired military intelligence officer and presidential candidate of the Grassroots Development Party of Nigeria (GDPN) in the 2019 general election, Dr Davidson Akhimien, said the general perception is that no tangible progress has been made in critical sectors. He told our reporter: “The decision to retain some ministers has led to speculations that political loyalty, rather than competence, played a significant role in the reshuffle. But, in fairness, politics cannot be ruled out in the formation of any cabinet in a democratic setting. But, since the exercise is coming at a time when the administration is faced with economic challenges, public discontent and pressing demands for reforms, I enjoin the president not to turn the searchlight away from ministers who survived the cabinet rejig. This is because, at the end of the day, his legacy will be defined not just by his policies but also by the people he chooses to implement them. This is because the challenges facing the country require leaders with both the technical expertise and the political will to drive innovation and development.”

    On the economy, inflation is still high. After two months of easing it went up in September. It is noteworthy that the September rate was driven by the further hike in fuel prices. This has had a spiral effect on the prices of food. Similarly, the exchange rate is also on the rise. A lot is being done by the government to bring it down but the positive impact is yet to be felt. These have jeopardized the situation in many homes because many families are finding it increasingly difficult to feed. It appears the administration has to do more in the area of planning for social safety nets to help the poor and vulnerable cope with the immediate impact of the reforms.

    Tinubu’s re-assigning of some ministers suggests that is re-balancing and optimizing the skills and competencies of those involved for better performance. For instance, the movement of Dr Doris Anite-Uzorka, who was hitherto the Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, to the Ministry of Finance, is perceived as a good development because she is now in more familiar terrain, given her sectoral expertise, with decades of banking experience.

    With this development, the ministry has two ministers, the Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, and Dr Anite-Uzorka. The import of this is that the president desires more from those calling the shots in the highly strategic ministry. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington, DC, on Friday, Edun indicated that the Federal Government is actively pursuing plans to de-dollarise the economy to strengthen the demand for the local currency, the naira. He said there is a move to de-dollarise the economy to encourage local service providers, regulators, and others to “invoice in naira rather than dollars”. He added, “It reduces the value of the dollar and, of course, increases the demand for the naira.”

    The government also intends to boost the contribution of the Ministry of Trade and Industry to the economy by the appointment of Dr Jumoke Oduwole (the minister-designate). She is reputed to be well versed in issues affecting the ministry as a lawyer who majors in commercial law and as someone who has worked in that field since the tenure of the immediate past administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

    However, not a few Nigerians have criticized the increase in the number of ministries, from 48 to 50. The general expectation was that he would reduce the number of ministries as a way of bringing down the cost of governance, in line with the 2012 Oronsaye Report, which recommended restructuring parastatals, commissions and agencies to reduce their number to a manageable size.

    But, foremost economist, Dr Ayo Teriba disagrees with such notions, arguing that the cost of governance cannot be looked at in isolation without considering the benefits of the system of government that the country is running. He told our reporter: “In economics, we usually talk about cost/benefits analysis. Even when we were practising the parliamentary system, we were still a federal republic with four regions. Then development was concentrated to the federal capital and the capitals of the four regions. When we moved to 12 states, it took development further to the grassroots. In the defunct Western Region, for instance, government presence was not just concentrated in Ibadan as before; Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo states were created out of the old Western Region and development was extended to other cities outside Ibadan and Lagos, which was the federal capital then. It was the same in the East and the North. So, we had to develop new capitals in places that were previously rural settlements. When it went from 12 to 19 states, seven new centres of development were added. We went from 19 to 30 states, and today, we have 36 states. If we go up to 54 states in future, we will spread it further.

    “The problem we have is that the executive and the legislature are not pulling their weight in contributing to revenue generation; everybody just wants to spend. That is a drawback and that is why everybody is talking about the high cost of governance. Instead of talking about opportunities to unlock wealth in their constituencies, the lawmakers are only interested in getting part of the money spent on constituency projects. At the end of the day, they end up doing projects that are of no benefit to their constituencies. The MDAs are not focusing on unlocking the revenues they are sitting upon in their respective areas; everyone is only interested in getting a part of the oil money. All the solid minerals that are lying dormant in various parts of the country, nobody is interested in the exploitation of such resources for the benefit of the people. Members of the National Assembly should also extend the national conversation on how to exploit those untapped benefits for the interest of the people.

    “The defunct regions were unlocking resources in their domains, whereas the states we have today are only focusing on going to the centre every month to receive allocations from the Federation Account. They neglect the resources they have in their states because they are expecting a share of the crude oil export distributed at the centre. So, let’s get back to the psychology of Sir Ahmadu Bello in the North, Obafemi Awolowo in the West and Sir Akanu Ibiam in the East. They were not waiting for handouts from the centre. Rather, they were unlocking wealth from within, developing their regions and contributing to the centre. The focus should be on how to get more benefits from governance, not the cost of governance.”

    Former presidential aide Laolu Akande said Presidential Tinubu must have been under tremendous pressure to carry out the cabinet rejig because one year is not enough to assess the performance of the government, as many of its allies argued. Akande, who was commenting on the development during a programme on TVC, added that owing to the general public perception that the performance of the government was underwhelming, the president had no choice but to reshuffle the cabinet and throw out the perceived dead weights.

    He said: “But, essentially, the president is satisfied with the performance in the core areas of governance, such as the economy. He believes we have to stay the course economically because he wasn’t expecting the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market to bring immediate returns. So, my point is that the public expectation is different from what the president intends and wants to do.

    “For me, there are some very good new ministers that have been proposed. One of them is Dr Jumoke Oduwole, a brilliant fellow who has been on that problem for seven years. Now she is getting an opportunity to implement many of the ideas that she has come up with. So, the president has tried to invigorate the economic team by bringing in Dr Oduwole. Then, if you look at the profile of the Livestock Minister-designate, Idi Muktar Maiha, he is also somebody who has hands-on experience in the livestock business. So, there is also a lot of expectation from that side.”

    Akande said Tinubu has tried to meet public expectations by throwing out some perceived non-performing ministers and reassigning others to areas where they may do better. However, he said the president has not gone the whole hog. “I think he has barely done more than 50 per cent to meet expectation but he should have gone further. For instance, I am not sure there is sufficient justification to keep Defence Minister, Bello Mattawale on the job, with all the allegations that were brought against him by a sitting governor. Some have defended him by saying those allegations are not true but the question is, who made the investigation? If a sitting governor says this minister is supporting bandits, we need to have a public review of the allegation; it is not something that can be swept under the carpet. In the case of Betta Edu, at least we know the matter was referred to the EFCC, even though we don’t know the outcome.”

    Akande said it is too early to assess the performance of Adegboyega Oyetola in the Marine and Blue Economy because it is a new ministry that would require a long period of gestation. Besides, the former presidential aide said those who came up with the idea of the ministry had someone else in mind to occupy the seat; at least, someone was publicly nominated for that position. Against this background, he believes Oyetola ought to have been given more time to find his feet. “But, even if the person they had in mind had been appointed, it is still early; one year is not enough to assess the performance of the new ministry. The point is, is there a direction? Is there a strategic approach, and are we getting close to it, or are we just marking time?”

    Akande said coordination is one aspect that President Tinubu must pay attention to if he wants the new ministers to succeed. He said: “He has rejigged his cabinet; we have to give him a pass mark for that, even though he did not go the whole hog. However, he has to also deal with the question of coordination. Let me give you an example. The EFCC wants to arrest former Governor Yahaya Bello. The question is, is it the EFCC that wants to arrest Yahaya Bello or the Federal Government of Nigeria? If it is the Federal Government, how was it that other federal agencies such as the DSS and the police who are around Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo could not work together with the EFCC to arrest the former governor? That tells you that the president does not have an enforcer who should have called all of them to a meeting and said, what kind of an embarrassment is this? You guys ought to have this job done this way.

    “So, the president has to look at his coordination. Another example is the Economic Management Team; what work are they doing? Do we even know whether they are meeting? There is no coordination. The Vice President is excluded from the Economic Management Team but he needs to sit down and sort out the question of coordination.”

    Without mentioning names, Akande said the reassignment of two former substantive ministers to work as junior ministers, which is technically a demotion, is an indication that Tinubu was not impressed by their performance and that their being retained in the cabinet could be due to their political influence. He said some of the new appointments were based on politics, while others were based on performance.

    On issues that affect Nigerians most, particularly poverty, human capital development, health and education, the former presidential aide said there is the need for collaboration with the various state governors because those areas are not on the Exclusive List and the states equally must deliver on those issues. He added: “There will be instances when this collaboration would be not easy, such as states where the governors were not elected on the APC platform and the governors would consider them as opponents. We have this scenario in Plateau, where Nentawe Yilwatda contested against Caleb Mutfwang, who is now the governor, during the last general election. But such coordination is very important, particularly in the three areas of health, education and poverty alleviation; we want to see more collaboration with the states.”

    Investment banker and business development expert, Akintunde Maberu said a government does not need to wait till midway into its tenure to reshuffle the cabinet. He said any government that wants to perform must have a benchmark by which to rate ministers and that it must continue to ring changes in the cabinet to keep its members on their toes. He said: “The rejig is good. Any government that wants to perform must constantly introduce changes. It must have a benchmark by which you rate ministers. This is what the Tinubu administration has done; although it is late in coming, we anticipated it. It began as a rumour and the government later confirmed it. At the end of the day, Uju-Ken Ohanenye, Lola Ade-John, Tahir Mamman, and Abdullahi Gwarzo, the ministers of Women’s Affairs, Tourism, Education, and Housing and Urban Development, respectively, were relieved of their duties.

    “Among the five former ministers, it is only the Minister of Education, Tahir Mamman, that came as a surprise to me. It took some landmark decisions, particularly his insistence that the minimum age for university admission should be 18 years. It is merely an implementation of an existing law in the country but it did not go down well with many parents who want to push their children beyond the limit their physical bodies could cope with. When we talk of prodigies, people with special abilities, which are exceptions, that is a different thing. We can make exceptions for those categories of children.”

    Maberu, who is the chief executive officer of Abusi Ventures, said the issue of the galloping inflation is unfortunate because it has made the situation difficult for many families to feed. He added: “Nevertheless, we must look at it from a fundamental point of view because for you to appreciate where we are currently, you have to go back and look at some of the things we did in the past that have led to the situation we find ourselves in. We, as Nigerians, are a peculiar people; we do not always want to do that which is right to derive the benefit of our natural endowment. There have been policy somersaults in the past; there have been policy mix-match. There are so many things that have been done wrongly to the extent that we have eaten our cake ahead of time.

    “But this time is a time of correction and it is difficult for many Nigerians to accept it. For instance, I was surprised by some of the things done by former Central Bank governor, Godwin Emefiele, a reputed banker and an economist, such as the printing of the naira without the backing of former President Muhammadu Buhari, the ways and means through which the government was borrowing and those borrowings were not used for infrastructure. Quite a lot of funds were stolen under him. If such distortions were not corrected, Nigeria would have collapsed. We have an economy that is dependent on importation; we do not produce. We had millions of people importing what we can easily produce in the country. Our scarce foreign exchange was being used to make all the importation. We are now being compelled by circumstances to increase our productive capacity, particularly agro-allied, otherwise known as non-oil export, which is the future of our economy. The agro-allied ecosystem is so wide for everyone to play in.

    “Though we have a government that is setting an agenda, those saddled with the implementation of those policies, including the ministers and the civil servants you will weep for the country. If you have anything to do with the various agencies and ministries you will feel sorry for this country. Those working in those agencies need to be shown the way out because they do not fit into the changes that are currently going on. That is why the president is finding it difficult to implement his policies.  That is why the benefits of the reforms have been slow in coming.

    “Another reason why we are not seeing the benefits of the reform is because our products are now being smuggled out without being captured as exports. Nigerians now take their products to neighbouring countries like Benin, Niger and Chad without going through the official channel. However, we have a dry port in Kebbi that is now going to legalise such trade. A similar development took place in Badagry when traders were educated on the imperatives of going through the official trade channel so that it could be incorporated into the GDP. When we have these trades going through the official channel, we are earning foreign currencies, whether in yen, dollar, pounds or CFA, which is now much higher than the naira. Before now, rice and other edible commodities were being brought into the country from neighbouring countries; now it is the opposite because our currency has lost value. But the problem is that they are being smuggled out through unofficial channels.”

    Maberu said he is happy that Dr Jumoke Oduwole has been appointed as a minister at last. He told The Nation: “She has been behind the scenes within the corridors of power for some years now and has an understanding of how the Ministry of Trade operates. What should be encouraged at this point is to support our small and medium-sized enterprises. An economy that wants to grow must also grow its micro businesses; its kitchen businesses, otherwise known as micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Kitchen businesses, which is the smallest business unit, have been added to the MSME category. There must be support for such small businesses because they are the bedrock of any economic growth. We expect that support to come in a form that would be beneficial to small businesses, as we have seen elsewhere around the world. Here, we like stories of success, but we should not do away with stories of failure because it is a pointer to a man who is making an effort. Such a man should be commended and assisted to succeed, as it is done in South Korea.”                

    The idea of setting up a full-fledged livestock ministry has been described as a move in the right direction to deconstruct the Ministry of Agriculture, which has become a behemoth that has not been impactful over the years. The creation of the Ministry of Livestock Development did not come as a surprise, considering that the president earlier inaugurated a Livestock Reform Committee and received a report from the Attahiru Jega-led committee. The report is expected to guide the activities of the newly created ministry. He had also at a recent event, indicated that his government plans to enhance meat and dairy production and mitigate the violent clashes between herders and farmers.

    Observers believe it is a crucial part of the agricultural value chain, which has the potential to add critical value to the country’s GDP and socio-economic development. For instance, The Nation columnist, Baba Yusuf said the new ministry will help to resolve the perennial farmers/herders’ clashes and impact positively on the country’s social justice and social development. He said the development will give the Minister of Agriculture time to focus on the other important aspects of the agricultural value chain. However, he urges the president to push the ministers to deliver, “because it’s a sector that is crucial to food security, economic recovery and sustainability”.

    A commentator on national affairs, Zayyad I. Muhammad said the minister-designate for Livestock Development, Idi Muktar Maiha, believes Muktar will succeed if he demonstrates effective leadership that addresses the needs of the people. He said: “With an impressive curriculum vitae as a technocrat, along with practical knowledge of livestock management, Mukhtar’s Zaidi Farm stands out as a well-integrated enterprise that applies world-class best practices in animal husbandry. Given this background, we expect him to introduce innovative approaches to livestock management by benchmarking against countries renowned for their success in this field, such as New Zealand, Australia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Brazil, Ireland, and the United States.

    “However, he faces a difficult and tasking job in three key ways. First, the Ministry of Livestock Development is newly established, and expectations from Nigerians are high. The ministry is tasked with overseeing and developing livestock policies, managing animal health and disease, improving breeds and genetic resources, enhancing husbandry and production systems, supporting rural livelihoods, and modernizing livestock marketing and trade. There would be expectations will focus on how he will transform the lives of nomadic cattle herders from being uneducated and nomadic to leading more settled, normal lives, while also addressing the farmer-herder conflict, as well as the notorious practices of cattle rustling, banditry, and kidnapping for ransom, which are prevalent among some cattle herders.”

    He said Mukhtar’s second challenge lies in his background; he has spent most of his career as a technocrat at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). He added: “Whether he is aware of it or not, he will inevitably experience the bitter-sweet realities of politics. Once appointed as a minister, one automatically assumes a political role. Mukhtar will need to navigate this transition, deciding whether to embrace full-time politics or attempt to balance his technocratic expertise with his political responsibilities.”

    With regard to security, the government has not done badly. There is a consensus that the military has acquitted itself well in the war against terror in the Northeast, with the killings of dozens of foot soldiers of Boko Haram and ISWAP in recent military offensives. This is believed to have depleted the manpower of the terrorists and put them under pressure to express their presence through suicide bombers. “The terrorists’ capacity to make and use improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has been severely crippled. Almost 65 per cent of their senior operatives have been taken out, hence the use of suicide bombers against innocent citizens,” a retired military officer, Sani Usman was quoted as saying.

    However, Dr Akhimien, a former National President of the Association of Licensed Private Security Practitioners of Nigeria (ALPSPN), blamed the incessant cases of kidnapping in the country on the political class, saying they deliberately polarised the polity for selfish ends because “they failed to condemn in clear language the actions of the perpetrators and act justifiably by going after them and bringing them to book”.

    The retired military intelligence officer has given an elaborate exposition from his repertoire of knowledge about how the rising number of mass kidnappings can be curbed. He said government must be strategic in its effort, by adopting a multi-pronged approach to stamp out the menace. He said: “However, no approach can succeed without the political will at the level of the Federal Government and the affected state governments. The Federal Government, which exercises control over the security apparatus, must at this point design a collaborative template involving all security agencies, with a clear mandate for each and reporting lines ending at the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA), who should coordinate the Special Anti-Kidnap Operations.

    “The office of the Department of State Services (DSS) should embark on infiltration measures, intensifying information gathering towards identifying locations of the marauding force, identifying dramatis personae/leaders and sponsors, sources of equipment, arms, ammunitions and rations of the marauders, and produce intelligence from these critical items of information for further action by the topmost echelon of the operations. The police could work with the information so provided as it relates to the arrest, detention, and interrogation of arrested key suspects, either of the foot soldiers or the sponsors. The revelations from this exercise will aid in further tracking the kidnappers.

    “The army special forces and others trained in jungle warfare can then be deployed to engage the criminals wherever credible intelligence identifies them to be anywhere in the country. Each case should be isolated in order not to spread the force thin. As each band of bandits is neutralized and routed, the Special Forces move to the next location of assignment. Adequate logistical support must be made available to this special force. The operations must be strictly military and not politicised.”

    The retired military intelligence officer said the Airforce must provide air support to these ground forces, ranging from air surveillance of locations and hideouts, aerial bombardments as necessary, satellite imagery of movements within camps and air-to-surface communication for proper coordination of the joint operations. In addition, he said Customs must be provided with high-tech fixed and movable scanning assets to be deployed at entry points into the country, especially at those fringes where we experience a preponderance of bandits’ incursions with small and light weapons. “The manpower levels of custom officers at these points should be shored up to enable a deterrence posture and avail officers of reinforcements in case of eventualities,”

    He also enjoined immigration officers to show greater patriotism in the discharge of their mandates at entry into the country. He said: “With our extensive borders, especially at the northern fringes, the service must embrace available technology in the surveillance of persons and groups crossing unmanned portions of our extensive borders. The service needs to be equipped with more helicopters for routine border patrol at this stage in the evolution of our nation’s security challenges; the Federal Government may need to consider establishing a special border patrol organization with officers drawn from relevant agencies with the necessary skill set and tool-set for the job. Such officers would be made to undergo requisite training to suit them for the onerous task at hand.”

    In summary, returning and new ministers should be tasked with formulating action plans for each of the items in the government’s Renewed Hope agenda to ensure alignment with the president’s vision for responsive governance. Observers have spoken of the need for regular progress reviews and inter-ministerial collaborations as a crucial factor for success. Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda focuses on several key areas aimed at national development and governance improvement. The central themes include strategies to boost economic growth, attract investments, and create jobs. It also involves initiatives for supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and enhancing infrastructure. It also includes security enhancement, which entails addressing security challenges through improved funding and resources for law enforcement, community engagement, and addressing root causes of unrest; healthcare reform, initiatives to enhance the quality of education, through promoting vocational training, and ensuring access to educational resources for all; as well as youth empowerment, among other things. Each minister would be expected to align their specific initiatives and policies with these overarching goals to drive the agenda forward effectively.

  • IT SMELLED LIKE DEATH: How flood disaster erased Borno’s blind elderly

    IT SMELLED LIKE DEATH: How flood disaster erased Borno’s blind elderly

    • Haunting reality of Zara Aji, others amid Maiduguri’s reptilian surge

    • As waters recede, over 150 PWDs missing, presumed dead

    • How non-inclusive laws leave disabled elderly at disadvantage

    The flood stole through the streets of Gwange like a reptilian beast. Until it got to Zara Aji’s home. By the time the 83-year-old stirred in her bed, she was soaked to the pants. The Alau Dam had collapsed hours before, spilling with nature’s pent-up rage. It was 3 a.m. when the water began its slow, fearsome crawl into her abode.

    The cold splash from her feet up to her midriff startled her fully awake. Aji could hear the roar of the water outside and its chilling hum inside her room. She sat, trapped and helpless. At 83, she was blind and her body was frail.

    As the flood rose to her waist, the house listed to the weight of the water gushing in from every crack and crevice. Aji’s room became a watery tomb. And in that critical moment, salvation came in the form of her grandson, Mohammed. Having heard the chilling hiss of the flood as it surged into their compound, the teenager was up in an instant, wading through the house in search of his granny.

    A debt of love carried through cold waters

    Mohammed found Grandma Aji shivering in bed. Promptly, he lifted her onto his back and waded through the depths of the flooded house,  against the current that sought to pull them both under.

    Tears slid down Aji’s cheeks, as she clung to her grandson, the poetic resonance of the moment sinking into her heart. In that moment, he was no longer the toddler she rocked to sleep on her back, singing soft lullabies. The roles were reversed. The grandson was now the saviour and protector, bearing his grandma to safety through dangerous waters.

    Aji could feel the water splashing against the boy’s chest. She could hear him grunt as he fought to keep them moving. And in the darkness, as the deluge splashed threateningly around them, there was a strange, haunting beauty in the way love had come full circle.

    Mohammed hastened out of the house before its walls crumbled. There was no turning back. The water seemed endless, but they moved through its depths, slowly but steadily towards London Chikki. He held tightly to his grandmother as if he understood the import of his actions. In that moment, he was carrying more than just her frail body; he was bearing a lifetime of memories, love, and shared history.

    Into the shallows, but not to safety

    They sought refuge in the London Chikki area, but the flood had not spared it either. The waters were still rising, the current still swirling to pull them both under. “We walked again,” Aji recalled, her voice frail with grief and exhaustion. “We walked until we reached the main road.”

    For three days, they stayed on that road, waiting for the waters to recede, like so many others displaced by the flood. Hungry and helpless, the cold seeped into their bones. They were far from safe, but at least they had survived.

    Eventually, they sought refuge with Aji’s brother, who took them in until the waters receded. After they deluge, they hurried back to Gwange, only to meet a shell of what used to be their home. Their house was gone, reduced to a pile of broken walls. Grandma Aji’s clothes and her few prized possessions had also been swept away in the torrent, leaving her destitute.

    “The government didn’t provide anything for us,” she said. “We heard there was support, but it never came to our community.”

    Lost in the torrent: Stories of the invisible

    Aji’s experience is one among several narratives of persons with disabilities (PWDs). And they all resonate with a deafening chill. For most elderly PWDs, the flood devastated their lives and exposed their inability to survive natural disasters. As the waters rose and people fled, visually impaired PWDs who could not see the danger approaching were left behind.

    Not all were so fortunate, like Aji. On the same night that her grandson rescued her, Safinatu Bala and her friend, Seyidatu, got lost in the waters. Both widows, the duo reportedly lived beside each other in Gamboru, their lives intertwined by friendship and a shared hardship of visual impairment.

    When the flood came, they clung to each other and wailed for their neighbours to rescue them from the rising water. But in the chaos, they got separated and swept apart. By morning, neither woman could be found. No one knows if they are still alive or if they had drowned in the surge.

    On his part, Iliyasu, an 84-year-old visually impaired and internally displaced person (IDP), told his fellow PWDs and co-squatter around the Monday Market, in Maiduguri, to leave him. “I have lived through too many floods. I will survive,” he said. “But if this is to be my end, then so be it.” His words reflected the desperation of several PWDs amid the deluge.  Like Bala and Seyidatu, Iliyasu hasn’t been seen since September 10.

    For many PWDs in Maiduguri, the flood was a cruel reminder of their vulnerability. They could not see the rising waters or gauge the danger until it was too late. Volunteers and aid workers in their rush to evacuate the able-bodied, overlooked those who could not flee on their own, noted Zulfatu Adamu, a Maiduguri-based aid worker. And so, the blind and disabled were left behind.

    The collapse of Alau Dam

    The eventual collapse of the Alau Dam was the result of years of neglect and mismanagement, warnings ignored and postponed repairs. Thus on the night of September 9, 2024, after days of torrential rain, the Alau Dam finally gave way as its weakened structure crumbled under the weight of the water.

    At the dam’s collapse, Maiduguri experienced its most severe flooding since 1994. Severe flash flooding submerged the Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere Local Government Area (LGA), displacing hundreds of thousands of people, including PWDs, at the height of the agricultural lean season’s food and nutrition crisis.

    In a statement titled, “Flooding Alert for River Bank Residents,” the Commissioner for Information and Internal Security, Prof. Usman Tar, called for the immediate evacuation of affected areas, and urged residents to follow designated evacuation routes for their safety. However, a major blindspot of Borno’s rescue plan was the safe evacuation of PWDs in the flood-prone areas.

    As the waters surged, many residents panicked and rushed to evacuate what seemed like certain death. For most, it was a panicked dash through roads slick with mud, toward whatever safety they could find. The flood ravaged villages, farmlands, and human lives alike, but hidden in the narrative of loss was the deeper anguish of several elderly PWDs like visually impaired Aji, Bala, Seyidatu and Iliyasu.

    Bitter streets, bitterer shelter

    Survivors like Fatima Yagana, 74 and visually impaired, sought refuge at emergency shelters. “Before the flood, I lived with my niece. She invited me to squat in her home after her husband died. On the night that the flood destroyed our home, I couldn’t sleep easily. I woke up and everywhere smelt like death. But it was the flood, and it almost drowned me and Rekiya (one of her niece’s kids). We fled and now have to live on the streets. We depend on alms to survive,” she said.

    The 74-year-old who has been rendered homeless and destitute by the flood, now lives on the streets with her niece, Ayisatu, and the latter’s two kids, because they couldn’t stay at the Gwange 1 emergency shelter due to the unsanitary conditions.

    The crowded shelter, like so many others, offered no sanctuary. The stench of human waste clings to the air all through the squalid and congested shelter, rendering its heated expanse even more suffocating. “The toilets smelt bad,” Yagana lamented, stressing that even though she can’t see, should at least enjoy fresh air. That was why she chose the streets, preferring the rough ground and open sky to the claustrophobia of an unsanitary refuge.

    A humanitarian void

    The Borno State Government, alongside humanitarian agencies, scrambled to provide aid. Yet, amid the efforts to register and assist the displaced, the specific plight of PWDs slipped through the cracks. In total, more than 2,500 people with disabilities in the flood-prone areas were directly affected by the flood, many of them left stranded in their homes as the waters rose, with over 150 missing or presumed dead, according to the National President of the Joint National Association of Persons with Disabilities (JONAPWD), Abdullahi Ali Usman.

    The figure quoted by Ali Usman is no doubt a conservative estimate. It would be recalled that precisely 3,127 PWDs comprising turned out in Maiduguri, to receive the N30,000 grant disbursed by Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, in 2019, as part of the social protection scheme of his administration.

    Going by the 2019 figure, the number of PWDs reportedly affected by the September flood, therefore, doesn’t represent the full picture.

    The affected PWDs were not invisible, but rather ignored, denied access to the evacuation routes and the dignity of urgent care. The numbers—37 deaths, 58 injured, 414,000 displaced—attest to the depth of the devastation. Beneath the statistics subsists issues of marginalisation and neglect. “Already PWDs are facing marginalisation due to their disabilities, this flood disaster is a double blow for them,” lamented Ali Usman.

    Corroborating him, Abiodun Tilawe, a social psychologist and emergency aid consultant stated, “Persons with disabilities are usually at greater risk in an emergency. More worrisome, she argued, is the fate of older PWDs with mental health conditions. “They are at a higher risk of death as the hardships experienced impact devastatingly on their mental health. Many become traumatised by the fear of losing their lives and being left behind. From experience, older PWDs find it difficult to adapt to the extreme conditions into which they are suddenly thrust. Before the disaster, they are not taught about what to do to adapt and keep themselves safe. Some of them, who were displaced from their communities by protracted conflict, lived on the streets without any caregivers. Since the flood happened, they have been unaccounted for, and nobody has bothered to look for them,” said Tilawe.

    The trauma after

    For PWDs who survived, each day in the aftermath of the flood has been an agonising reminder of their vulnerability. The disaster stripped them of autonomy. Their disability is a barrier to their mobility, access to provisions and dignity.

    For Jelani Aliyu, life as a PWD at the Gwange 3 temporary refuge, became extremely difficult. Confined to a wheelchair, the 81-year-old revealed that the damage done by the flood made accessing every basic necessity an impossible feat. According to him, the emergency shelters were not designed for PWDs. The aid distributions were chaotic, the strong elbowed out the weak, and the disabled were left to mope on the fringes. There were no ramps, accessible toilets, and accommodations made for people like him. He was invisible.

    The ongoing conflict in the region cast an even darker pall over the lives of PWDs. In 2014, in the town of Damasak, Mohamadou, a blind man of 53 years, fled from his home as Boko Haram laid siege to his community. Blind and defenceless, he clung to his wife and son as they swam across the Yobe River, ducking a volley of gunshots from the rampaging terrorists. “We swam like fish,” he recalled, though he could not see the river.

    For two years, Mohamadou lived in a refugee camp, dependent on the kindness of his son and strangers. But his disability marked him as a prey. His young son was frequently shoved aside by stronger, older men, and time after time, as he queued for provisions and other relief items. Thus he often returned empty-handed.

    “I would wait in line with my young son to get aid, but adult refugees would kick children away, including my son. We were too weak to fight back and would often lose our turn and return without getting anything from the distribution,” he said.

    Mohamadou, like so many PWDs displaced by flood and conflict, became a ghost, alive but uncared for.

    It’s a hard life for PWDs

    Nigeria was affected by the worst floods in a decade between June and November 2022, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The floods triggered over 2.4 million displacements, the highest disaster displacement figure in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022. Half of the displacements were reported in Bayelsa State, but Anambra and Kogi were also heavily affected. Displacement camps in the northeastern state of Borno were also flooded, forcing thousands of people already displaced by conflict and violence to flee again. By comparison, floods triggered 166,000 displacements in 2023, a figure in line with the average of the past decade. By the end of 2023, 81,000 people were still living in internal displacement due to disasters, a more than ten-fold reduction compared to the end of 2022.

    Disaster displacement, whether triggered by cyclones, wildfires, floods, or other hazards, is a growing global issue with particularly harsh consequences for PWDs, who have to endure heightened risks due to discrimination and barriers to accessing essential services.

    In 2020 and 2021, the UN noted that older PWDs may encounter unique challenges during climate-related disasters, such as the Borno flood. Similarly, a 2021 report by Women in Displacement (WID) revealed that 27% of IDPs in northeast Nigeria have a disability, a figure that has increased since the insurgency. As a result, PWDs living in camps are disproportionately affected and frequently excluded from key interventions.

    According to the WHO’s 2018 World Disability Report, many PWDs in Nigeria, are disproportionately affected in disaster, emergency, and conflict situations due to inaccessible evacuation, response, and recovery efforts. The WHO notes that they are more likely to be left behind or abandoned during evacuation in disasters and conflicts due to a lack of preparation and planning, as well as inaccessible facilities, services and transportation systems.

    During floods, older PWDs would require greater assistance and additional time to evacuate, but they receive less support. Further findings revealed that most IDP camps are not accessible and people with disabilities get turned away from the emergency shelters, oftentimes, due to a perception that they need “complex medical” services. Consequently, older PWDs find themselves at greater risk as they are more likely to suffer medical conditions, such as heart or respiratory conditions, through extreme situations, according to expert opinion. Older PWDs may also take medications that cause intolerance and impair the body’s response to cold and heat. The high death rates of people with disabilities and older people during the 2021 heatwaves in British Columbia (BC), Canada, illustrate these points: 91 per cent of those who died had a chronic medical condition or a disability and 90 per cent were older people.

    Due to the lack of accurate data, it is often unclear exactly how many people with disabilities and older people are affected by a particular disaster as indicated by the Borno flood. The lack of accurate data on the number of IDPs living with a disability and their location equally poses challenges to monitoring their needs and allocating resources. It also makes it difficult to tailor support and assess the inclusivity of responses over long-term recovery and reconstruction efforts.

    About a billion people, or 15 per cent of the globe’s population, are estimated to have a disability, of whom 80 per cent live in low- and middle-income countries, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The global number of people with disabilities is increasing, partly because of ageing populations and a rise in chronic health conditions. It is not known how many people with disabilities live in IDP camps associated with disasters. The IDMC estimates that 5.1 million people were still displaced as a result of disasters at the end of 2019, but this figure is highly conservative. This is because data on the number of people living in displacement after a disaster event is scarce.

    Accessibility issues, stigmatisation and variations in definitions tend to render IDPs with disabilities invisible during data collection. They are, as a result, often under-identified. For example, when Ambae Island in Vanuatu was evacuated in 2017 because of increased volcanic activity, there were concerns that a significant number of people with disabilities had not been identified among the evacuees. The International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM-DTM) reported 37 people with disabilities out of 5,125 people located in one evacuation centre. This represented less than one per cent of the total displaced population. Sources vary on the prevalence of disability in Vanuatu, but 2019 data from the UN placed it at up to 12 per cent.

    Disability Bill as a paper tiger

    On January 23, 2019, Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari signed into law the Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, 2018, following nine years of relentless advocacy by disability rights groups and activists.

    The law prohibits discrimination on the basis of disability and imposes sanctions including fines and prison sentences on those who contravene it. It also stipulates a five-year transitional period for modifying public buildings, structures, and automobiles to make them accessible and usable for people with disabilities.

    The law also established a National Commission for Persons with Disabilities (NCPD) in 2020. The NCPWD, tasked to guarantee PWDs access to housing, education, and healthcare, is also empowered to receive complaints of rights violations and support victims to seek legal redress amongst other duties.

    Yet, one thing the NCPWD hasn’t done is to ensure the protection of Nigerians with disabilities during a natural disaster, emergency or conflict.

    Lack of data accentuate social exclusion

    Quoting recent World Health Organisation (WHO) figures, the immediate past executive secretary of the NCPWD, James Lalu, disclosed that currently, there are over 35.1 million persons living with disabilities in Nigeria of which a paltry 4,000 are duly registered.

    Notwithstanding, his successor and incumbent executive secretary of the Commission, has reiterated the NCPWD’s commitment to ensuring inclusive policies for all clusters of PWDs in line with the Renewed Hope agenda of the incumbent administration of President Bola Tinubu.

    Gufwan made the assurance in Abuja during a parley with a delegation from the Pioneers of the Nigerian National and International Disability Civil Rights Movement and Policy Chapters, a disability advocacy Group.

    “We are open to partnering with National and International bodies to ensure that the rights and privileges of persons with disabilities are protected as stipulated by the Prohibition Act, 2018,” he said.

    Earlier, Gufwan affirmed that data remains a veritable tool for the proper planning and execution of all disability-inclusive projects in Nigeria.

    The NCPWD had previously emphasised the importance of accurate data gathering and processing as the fundamental aspect of inclusive social policies for PWDs. “We must prioritise facts and figures of various clusters in the disability community to get it right,” he said, insisting that the need to ascertain the actual number of persons with disabilities is pertinent. “Over the years, persons with disabilities are believed to be about 35.1 million in Nigeria which is of course, a staggering figure but, we must revisit this and ascertain the authenticity of this figure and update it if necessary,” he said.

    A 2018 estimate by the National Population Commission (NPC) states that there are about 19 million, that is, 9.6 per cent of the 198 population approximately, living in Nigeria.

    In Nigeria, social protection for PWDs remains weak, despite government claims of increased provisioning for them. The Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act, passed only after years of advocacy, has done little to address the deep-rooted exclusion PWDs face in society. Discrimination persists, driven by negative perceptions and cultural stigmas that label disabled individuals as cursed, especially in communities lacking proper disability-inclusive governance.

    This exclusion often results in poverty, dependence on others, and health challenges. In the conflict-ridden northeast, PWDs, particularly women and children, suffer more acutely, being unable to pursue livelihoods or enjoy basic social rights.

    A report by the Grassroots Researchers Associations (GRA), authored by written by Timothy Ali Yohanna, revealed that PWDs in northeast Nigeria suffer frequent violations of their rights. These include opposition to marriages with non-disabled individuals, denial of medical care due to financial constraints, denial of access to decent shelter, and exclusion from social opportunities.

    More worrisome is the institutionalised disregard for their right to life as established before, during, and in the aftermath of the Borno flood. These discriminatory practices and lack of disability-inclusive policies rendered PWDs particularly vulnerable during the disaster, further deepening their already precarious situation.

    The need for inclusion

    Whether fleeing an extreme weather event or conflict, “disabled people are among the most vulnerable, and are more likely to be side-lined in every aspect of the humanitarian assistance process,” said Cheick Ba, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)’s Country Director in Nigeria, in the wake of Mohamadou’s predicament.

    “They face multiple barriers in accessing aid, information, healthcare and protection. We, humanitarians, must do much better in our work. We have to systematically identify and register displaced persons with disabilities,” said Ba.

    Article 11 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in risk and humanitarian emergencies, pays particular attention to the obligation of States and parties to undertake “all necessary measures to ensure the protection and safety of persons with disabilities in situations of risk, including situations of armed conflict, humanitarian emergencies and the occurrence of natural disasters.”

    Environmental dangers and natural disasters like the Borno flood, can lead to the onset of many types of disabilities, and inaccessible environments prevent persons with disabilities from taking part in social and economic recovery. Rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, therefore, must not only be inclusive and responsive to the needs of all people, including PWDs, but should include the latter’s participation, to ensure that their needs and rights are respected.

    Women with disabilities, Aji, are a particularly vulnerable group whose needs should be included at all stages of recovery and reconstruction efforts.

    But that is in the long run, in the short run, their survival depends on the goodwill of neighbours and family; those who dare look their way, not to scorn their ordeal or simply talk eyes to their grief.

    As the waters recede and Maiduguri takes stock of the damage, there is a sense of loss so profound it is hard to put into words. Lives have been upended, homes have been destroyed, and communities torn apart. Amid the wreckage, there is also a sense of despair as elderly PWDs are left adrift, far from the government’s reconstruction plans.

    In the absence of government support, Zara Aji, for instance, has learnt to take each day as it comes. At her last encounter with the reporter, giant houseflies buzzed lazily in the thick air around her, their tiny, winged bodies hovering around her face as if they could perceive her grief. They perched on her eyelids, cheek, and lips. Aji did not flinch. She did not swat them away. Instead, she sat stoic, with heartbreaking inertia, allowing the flies to perch as they pleased. Their buzz filled the air with a strange, haunting hum, as though they too mourned the loss she had endured.

    For the 83-year-old, there is no going back to what was. The flood had changed everything. Every sunset, she lounges on the broken veranda of what was once her home, reliving that fateful night in September, when the skies poured over Maiduguri with a fury rarely seen, collapsing the Alau Dam and submerging several homes and lives in Borno. Gwange, the neighbourhood where she had lived for years, is now a shell of itself; a landscape of mud and sorrow.

    Aji, 83 and visually impaired, cannot see the destruction around her. But she can feel it in the cold draft of the breeze, the dampness that clings to her skin, and the hollow echo of the neighbourhood’s once-familiar sounds.

    Her frail memories remain her only witness to the horror of the reptilian flood that submerged her home, almost drowning her. Until salvation arrived in the form of her grandson, in a poignant moment that affirmed a debt long owed and finally repaid.

  • Shattered Dreams: Nigeria’s 64-year struggle with hope, hardship

    Shattered Dreams: Nigeria’s 64-year struggle with hope, hardship

    Crime fills the void as families fracture under economic strain

    The true price of the Nigerian dream: A nation’s descent into moral decay

    Middle class on edge: Reinvention amid chaos

    Tinubu’s gospel of renewed hope: Grueling path to a new Nigeria

    Governors: Architects of progress or agents of despair?

    In a cramped two-bedroom apartment in Orile-Agege, Lagos, the Abayomis—once part of Nigeria’s thriving middle class—now cling to its ghostly chaff. Kunle Abayomi, 53, a civil servant, wrestles with the weight of feeding his family of six on a paltry N100,000 a month. His wife, Folasade, 48, juggles two jobs, teaching by day and trading by night. Their four children—Wale, 16; Tolu, 14; Jide, 11; and Bolu, 9—seeing their parents’ hustles, know all too well why the Nigerian Dream feels increasingly out of reach.

    Wale, the eldest, spends his weekends glued to his phone, absorbing every detail of the Okoya family’s wealth. His heroes are Alhaji Rasaq Okoya’s heirs, who grace the covers of business magazines and flaunt the luxury of success—a stark contrast to his family’s indigence. He dreams of one day owning the kind of sprawling estate that would rival the Okoyas’ mansion in Lagos Island. But that is in the long run, in the short run, Wale and his siblings, counts the days to his father’s next paycheck, which seems to disappear even before it arrives.

    Inflation, now a beast at 32%, gnaws at their parents’ earnings. Kunle’s once-sufficient salary is stretched to the breaking point, and the removal of fuel subsidies only deepens the wounds. Transport costs have ballooned, power outages drag on for days, and Sade’s income barely covers school fees, leaving Wale’s university dreams dim and uncertain.

    “Every day is a battle,” said Kunle, exhaustion clouding his eyes. “Hard work used to promise something better, but now it feels like we’re just sinking.”

    The Abayomis are not alone in their struggle. Across Lagos, and indeed across Nigeria, families are undergoing profound changes. The pressures of economic hardship have led to the reorganisation of gender roles within households. Sade, once content to contribute supplementary income, now shoulders a heavy financial burden, working long hours while Kunle faces stagnant wages in a workforce ravaged by layoffs.

    The Nigerian family, traditionally patriarchal, is evolving as more women step into roles once dominated by men. Husbands and wives now collaborate not just as partners in marriage but as teammates in survival, forced to renegotiate their roles in a new economic reality.

    Coping strategies vary, with families resorting to extreme measures to stay afloat. Some, like the Abayomis, have pulled their children from private schools and turned to cheaper alternatives. Others have taken out high-interest loans to cover basic expenses, creating a cycle of debt from which escape seems impossible. Yet, through all the hardship, there is a quiet resilience—a refusal to give up.

    “It’s like living in a lottery,” says Chidi Ezeigbo, head of a family of five residing in Surulere, Lagos. Chidi, a native of Ahiazu-Mbaise in Imo State, runs a small electronics shop at Orile-Iganmu, while his wife, Nkem, sells cassava and vegetable salad in the bustling Yaba market. They draw inspiration from the belief that their hard work will one day pay off. Even so, every day feels like a gamble, as fluctuating exchange rates and skyrocketing prices erode their income, leaving their dreams hanging in the balance.

    For Habeeb Olamide, a steel constructor, the soaring cost of materials has crippled his business. He juggles multiple ventures to survive and cuts down on every unnecessary expense. According to him, “Many of us go for days without any hope of getting a decent job. Consequently, we have learnt to combine streams of income by venturing into other businesses,” he said.

    His wife supports the household with petty trade and POS business, but despite their struggles, Olamide remains steadfast—his wife’s contribution is not a challenge to his authority, but a gesture of unity in their fight to survive. “Yes, it’s not easy but with wisdom, we all can survive these hard times. We must simply cut down on frivolous expenses. This is not the time to buy aso ebi or embark or squander money on partying or any other jamboree. We must cut our cloth to available material. Times are hard and only the wise will survive. But in all we do, we must never resort to crime. With perseverance, things will improve,” he said.

    Regardless of Olamide’s suasion, Tayo and Funmi Adeoye cut a markedly different portrait of wedlock amid lingering austerity. Until recently, amid the bustling expanse that hosts their residence in Ajasa Command, they stood as a testament to the conventional Nigerian household: Tayo, the provider with calloused hands; Funmi, the nurturer, soft-spoken yet strong. But when the naira began its free fall, and the price of bread rose with the sun, Funmi found herself venturing into the world of commerce. Her online thrift business blossomed in ways that never imagined. Suddenly, the balance shifted. The invisible crown that once rested on Tayo’s brow began to lose its lustre as Funmi’s bank account swelled with each transaction. The money Funmi brought home, once intended to alleviate burdens, became the sword that severed the unspoken hierarchies of their marriage. What had once been a partnership turned into a silent war of wills. A conflict fought without words but incised deep into the fabric of their marriage.

    Under the rusted roofs of Lagos, the foundations of the Nigerian family tremble. The once ironclad order of patriarchal rule is cracking under the strain of shifting gender roles. Authority, once the firm domain of fathers, is now contested in silent wars of supremacy—wars that leave deeper scars than any knife could carve.

    Tide of Illicit Wealth: A New Morality in the Age of Hardship

    In other corners of Nigeria, where desperation has hollowed out the souls of many, a different battle rages. It is not the clash of spouses over power, but the surrender of family values to the allure of illicit wealth. Parents who once ruled with an iron fist now find their hands open, palms upturned, to receive form their wards, the dark fruits borne of crime.

    Emeka Nwankwo, a father in Enugu, was once a man whose word was law, a towering figure who raised his sons with the stern hand of discipline. His youngest son, Ugochukwu, once feared the leather belt that dangled from his father’s wrist. But times have changed. The hum of computers now fills their modest home, and the glow of Ugochukwu’s laptop has become a beacon of hope in their darkest financial hour. Ugo, like many young men of his generation, found himself caught in the net of “Yahoo Yahoo”—internet fraud. The luxury that once seemed unreachable is now purchased at the click of a button, tagged in the currency of deception.

    And Nwankwo? He watches, not with dismay, but with quiet resignation. His principles, once as solid as the hills of Nsukka, have crumbled under the weight of bills and the burden of survival. He even praises Ugo’s cleverness, telling neighbors that his son has the mind of a “chief,” a man destined for greatness. Meanwhile, his wife, Nneka, far from discouraging their son’s illicit activities, has become an accomplice of sorts. She took Ugo to a spiritualist for protection—juju that would guard him from law enforcement and the curses of his victims. Where once prayers for righteousness filled her lips, now she recites incantations for prosperity.

    Nkem Olise, 21, and her mother, Chizoba, portray a different kind of reality. Raised by a single mother, Nkem’s inability to pay her tuition, and the economic tides pulled her into the undercurrent of “hook-up culture,” a sanitised term for prostitution. Like many young females, Nkem has become a daughter of the wind, drifting wherever the promise of money might take her. Her mother, Chizoba, does not ask where the gold-plated earrings or designer shoes come from. She knows. They all know. But in this harsh climate of survival, morality has been set adrift, cut loose from its moorings. Chizoba simply nods when Nkem hands her bundles of naira, her heart torn between guilt and gratitude. The irony is bitter—once she would have chastised such behavior, but now, in this economy, her daughter is their breadwinner.

    The role of spiritualism in this new Nigerian family dynamic cannot be ignored. Desperation has turned many to the unseen, seeking protection and prosperity from forces they once feared. Mothers like Nneka and Chizoba no longer take their children to pastors or imams for prayer alone; they visit traditional spiritualists, seeking fortifications for their children engaged in fraudulent dealings or prostitution.

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    These women are not evil. They are mothers, desperate to protect their own in a world that has become increasingly hostile, argued Afolami Olude, a widower and father of two. They, like their children, are simply survivors in a society where the moral compass has been shattered by the tumult of economic hardship, he stressed.

    The charms and talismans that hang from their children’s necks, according to him, are as much a symbol of their love as they are of their submission to the times. The fathers, too, have become strange companions to this new reality. Instead of issuing parental correction, they choose to turn a blind eye, their silence complicit in the slow erosion of values.

    Olatunde Akinyemi, a former bus driver in Ibadan, Oyo State, once prided himself on his reputation as a disciplinarian. His daughter, now entangled in the dark web of escort services, once trembled beneath his disapproving gaze. Yet today, Akinyemi accepts her contributions to the household with the stoic pragmatism of a man who has lost too much. His only comfort is the roof above their heads, leased with money that, though tainted, ensures their shelter and survival.

    Cracked Mirror of the Nigerian Dream

    The Nigerian family, once a solid institution, now stands like a cracked mirror, reflecting the distortion of a once-cherished Nigerian dream. For many it’s prosperity, for others, its career success, stardom or decent living. The parameters for ascertaining true prosperity varies from family to family, from one individual to another.

    Gender roles have shifted, authority has been questioned, and the lines between right and wrong have blurred beyond recognition, argued Adeyinka Somide, a sociologist and retired headteacher. According to her, the long-held values that commanded visions of success and integrity among her generation has been so badly corrupted that all that’s left “are shreds of memories of how cultured, honest and God-fearing we once are.”

    As families struggle to recalibrate their lives in the wake of economic upheaval, they are faced with the harsh truth: survival often demands compromise. Fathers who once stood tall have bent under the weight of necessity. Mothers who once preached virtue now turn to darker forces for protection. Sons and daughters, once guided by the moral teachings of their homes, now wander through the world of crime and moral ambiguity, driven by the sheer will to survive.

    Yet, even in this storm, the heart of the Nigerian family beats on, fractured but not fully broken. In the small spaces between survival and surrender, there remains hope—a flicker of light that refuses to die, even when surrounded by the darkest night.

    A Matriarch’s Lament: How We Got Here as a Nation

    Seated on her weathered wooden chair, amidst the quiet hum of Giwa, a distant Lagos slum, Mama Adesuwa Adio, spoke with the wisdom of her years. She has lived through more seasons than she cares to count, seen the sun rise and fall over Nigeria’s triumphs and tragedies. A retired teacher, a qualified sociologist, church counsellor and a grandmother of five, Mama Adesuwa is no stranger to the shifting tides of time.

    “We didn’t arrive here by accident. We took small steps, one after another, until we found ourselves lost in the wilderness of today,” she began. “In the sixties, Nigeria was different. The family was sacred, our values were our guide. Discipline, honesty, and respect for elders were the pillars upon which we built our homes. Those were the days when a man’s word was his bond, and a woman’s pride lay in the goodness of her children. We didn’t have much, but we had dignity.” She paused, her eyes clouding with the memories of a bygone era. She noted that even in the imperfections of a newly independent Nigeria, there was a moral compass that pointed to what was right and just.

    “But then,” she sighed, “came the winds of economic hardship, and with them, the slow erosion of our values. The oil boom of the ’70s brought hope, but it also planted the seeds of greed. When the oil flowed, it seemed as if money would solve all our problems. Families began to measure their worth by their wealth, not by their character. But then came the crashes, the wet e crisis among other political chaos, and the economic downturns that broke the country.”

    Mama Adesuwa leaned forward, her voice rising. “You see, when a nation is poor, the heart of the people is tested. Our leaders promised us prosperity, but they delivered only hardship. The structural adjustment programs of the ’80s came, and what did they bring? Inflation, unemployment, and poverty that gnawed at the soul of our nation. Families that were once whole began to crumble under the weight of empty stomachs and broken dreams.”

    She recalled the days when she stood at the front of her classroom, chalk in hand, teaching pupils the importance of integrity and hard work. “But I noticed the change, even in my students,” she said quietly. “When the economy began to bite, children who once held their heads high began to lose hope. Their parents couldn’t afford their school fees anymore, and education became a luxury, not a right. What do you expect of a child whose stomach is empty? That’s when we began to lose them, one by one, to the streets. So, we began to close our eyes to the little things—the bribes, the small lies, the shortcuts—until those little things became big things, and before we knew it, they consumed us.”

    The Cycle of Evasion: Passing the Burden

    Every Nigerian government has shirked the weight of hard choices, preferring to shield the populace from temporary pain rather than bear the responsibility of lasting solutions. Each administration, fearing the loss of public favor, pushed critical decisions into the hands of their successors, like children kicking a tin can down a dusty road. Today, we face the wreckage of those deferrals: an economy teetering on the precipice, citizens choking under the weight of decades of mismanagement.

    We must embrace a sobering truth—Nigeria is not wealthy. Ben Akabueze, former Director-General of the Budget Office, unmasked the illusion, revealing that even smaller African nations dwarf Nigeria’s meager budget. South Africa, with a fraction of Nigeria’s population, operates a budget four times as large.

    Over three-quarters of Nigeria’s budget is drained by recurrent expenditures—salaries and operational costs—since 2011. Our resources bleed into a bloated bureaucracy, starving the nation of the infrastructure and development it so desperately needs, Akabueze lamented.

    This culture of profligacy was fostered on an illusion of wealth. The image of Nigeria as a land of boundless riches was forged in the fires of independence. Leaders like Nnamdi Azikiwe and General Yakubu Gowon ignited this vision, promising that Nigeria would rise as Africa’s shining star. The oil boom of the 1970s only deepened this mirage.

    Gowon’s infamous claim, “Money is not Nigeria’s problem, but how to spend it,” became the anthem of an era intoxicated by false wealth. Yet this so-called wealth was but a flicker in the wind—a fleeting fortune. Oil, the nation’s supposed lifeblood, has become the very shackle that binds us.

    Now, Nigeria is a ghost of its former self, shackled to a dream that long withered. The riches once thought inexhaustible have dissipated, leaving the nation crumbling under the weight of its unfulfilled promises.

    Betting Against the Naira

    As oil flowed freely, Nigerians began hedging their futures—not just in the market, but against their own nation. The locust years of currency speculation saw both the wealthy and middle class alike convert their earnings into dollars, betting against the naira’s collapse. A tragic irony unfolded: the people cheered as their own currency faltered.

    State governors joined in the fray, siphoning public funds to speculate on the dollar. The Central Bank’s subsidised rates became a tool for profit rather than public service, as they sold these dollars at exorbitant prices on the black market.

    As economic analyst Tope Fasua observed, when a people lose faith in their own currency, the nation is lost. The speculation against the naira became a self-fulfilling prophecy—an unraveling that widened the chasm between the wealthy and the poor. Where one thrived, millions fell deeper into destitution. Fasua’s grim metaphor cuts to the heart of this tragedy: “The man with $100 million cannot leave his home, for zombies will be waiting to devour him.” A country consuming itself, one bite at a time.

    And yet, Nigerians continued to chant in unison, “What’s the worst that could happen?” even as the storm clouds gathered on the horizon. President Bola Tinubu’s reforms—fuel subsidy removal and naira floatation—are attempts to break this cycle, not just economically but psychologically, teaching the nation that nothing in life is free. But such reforms require leadership by example.

    The Ruling Class: Symbols of Sacrifice or Shadows of Greed?

    If Tinubu’s government is to demand sacrifice from the people, it must first shed its own excesses. The bloated salaries and allowances of public officials cast a long shadow over any call for austerity. Retired school administrator Cynthia Olubae insists that true healing can only begin when the nation’s leaders show they are willing to bleed alongside their citizens.

    In July 2024, the House of Representatives offered to cut their salaries by 50% for six months to contribute N648 million to support food sufficiency. However, the Nigeria Labour Congress and civil society organisations swiftly countered, arguing that it was the allowances of lawmakers, not just their salaries, that needed slashing to make a meaningful impact.

    Nonetheless, the House pleaded with Nigerians to exhibit patience as Tinubu’s administration worked through the country’s challenges. The exorbitant cost of governance is a festering wound, one that must be staunched if the nation is to recover. In 2024 alone, Nigeria spent N724 billion on its legislative houses—resources that could have revitalized healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The Senate luxuriates in abundance while the nation languishes in poverty. The answer is clear: Nigeria must trim the fat of its government.

    Nigeria: Poor Yet Pregnant with Promise

    Nigeria may be poor, a truth that stings, but it is equally rich in potential—a contradiction that has shaped the nation since its inception. Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, a mere 6.7% in 2021, pales compared to the African average of 15.6%. Though it has crept upward, the gap remains yawning. This imbalance forces Nigeria to resort to borrowing or printing money, spiraling inflation and deepening the crisis. In contrast, the European Union enjoys a tax-to-GDP ratio of 41.2%, funding robust public services.

    Oil revenues, once Nigeria’s backbone, now barely sustain the nation. Saudi Arabia, with just 35 million citizens, generates $350 billion from oil annually, while Nigeria, with 220 million people, scrapes together a mere $36 billion.

    Nigeria’s expectation of Western-style governance, without the taxes to sustain it, is our Achilles’ heel. Like children expecting a feast from an empty kitchen, we demand from the government what it simply cannot provide. And yet, Nigerians continue to cling to the dream of abundance, even as it drifts further from reach.

    Nonetheless, President Tinubu envisions a thriving SME sector that forms the backbone of Nigeria’s economic future, fostering sustainable development and reducing dependency on oil. The president has severally highlighted his plans to assist MSMEs to unleash the potential of Nigeria’s entrepreneurial spirit, enabling local businesses to compete on the global stage and contribute meaningfully to the nation’s prosperity.

    The future of Nigeria lies not in the grandiose dreams of yesteryear but in the hands of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) like Ariyo’s. SMEs contribute nearly half of Nigeria’s GDP, employ 87.9% of its workforce, and form the backbone of the economy. If Nigeria is to rise again, it will be through the resilience and innovation of its people—through the grocery sellers, the artisans, the tech entrepreneurs who refuse to give up.

    The Promise of Reforms

    Since May 2023, Nigeria has embarked on a series of long-overdue reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy. The Central Bank of Nigeria has unified exchange rates, fostered a market-determined official rate, and phased out the gasoline subsidy, which had drained over N8.6 trillion from the country’s coffers between 2019 and 2022. These reforms, though painful, were necessary. Inflation has risen to 33.7%, squeezing the purchasing power of citizens and increasing the cost of living. But these are the short-term costs of the reforms. The long-term goal is to stabilise the economy, create jobs, and foster sustainable growth. To cushion the impact on the poor, the government has launched a cash transfer program, providing N75,000 to 15 million households over three months.

    Still, these efforts alone will not be enough. Nigeria needs to accelerate its development progress, not just to stabilise its economy but to address its growing poverty crisis. According to a recent World Bank report, more than 109 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line. This is one of the largest concentrations of poor people in the world.

    Ingenious Coping Amid Hardship

    Amidst the turmoil of economic hardships, families who refuse to succumb to crime forge creative survival strategies. In Lagos, they pool resources, share homes, and rotate childcare to reduce costs. Jeremiah Alase, for instance, formed an ajo (cooperative savings group) with neighbors, including two NYSC graduates, in his Idimu community. Each month, members contribute N25,000 and take turns receiving the pooled funds.

    “We prefer this to banks. Banks only fund the rich with our deposits,” Alase explains. “This ajo has been a lifeline, helping us handle unexpected expenses like school fees or medical bills.”

    Left to Alase, the Nigerian Dream has morphed into a utopian ideal—a fantasy reserved for the elite. According to him, bank loans, wealth and success seem attainable only for those with access to capital, connections, or sheer luck. His disillusionment, like so many others’ constitute a thread in a larger tragedy that runs through the heart of Nigerian society.

    No one can pretend we didn’t see this coming. The signs have been there, obvious as the noonday sun, looming for decades. Many saw it unfold but preferred to shrug it off, imagining that the ship of state was still on course, even as it drifted towards the gorge.

    But the worst has dawned in real time. The consequences pervade the country, palpable in the air, like a suffocating fog clinging to every breath. Even in the so-called “good old days,” there was a foreboding sense that all was not well—that something, someday, had to give. The decades passed, and with each, we reminisced about an era when life was supposedly better. But the truth is that the good old days have always been a decade away, never in the present.

    The truth subsists in the unshed tears of Mama Adesuwa, who dreads seeing her beloved homeland lose its way. “We thought we could hold onto our values while chasing wealth, but we were wrong. The two paths diverged, and in our desperation, we chose the path of survival over righteousness. This is why our families are broken. This is why our children are lost. We, as a nation, forgot that true wealth lies not in money, but in the strength of our character.”

    But all is not lost, she intoned, softly. “If we want to restore our nation, we must return to the values that made us strong. We must teach our children that integrity is worth more than gold, that honesty is greater than any material wealth. And we must hold our leaders accountable, demand that they create a country where our children don’t have to choose between morality and survival.”

    The septuagenarian’s words hung heavy in the air – a lamentation for what was lost, but also a call to action. In her voice, there is a subtle declaration infused with hope—that even though the heart of the Nigerian family may be fractured, it still beats; that even in the midst of economic despair, Nigeria can be reclaimed if its people are willing to rebuild, brick by brick, the values that once made it whole.

  • If I Should Die Giving Birth: How Anita Nathaniel woke up during caesarean section, died in agony

    If I Should Die Giving Birth: How Anita Nathaniel woke up during caesarean section, died in agony

    Young, pregnant, dead: Inside the deathly maternity wards of City of Salvation Hospital

    Lagos clinic issues Ogun death certificate for victim of botched surgery, falsifies medical records

    Why dead mothers litter Nigeria’s labour rooms

    Anita Nathaniel lay bound to the surgical table, captive between life and death. There, beneath the stern glare of fluorescent lights, inside the City of Salvation Hospital, Egbeda, Lagos, a frantic opera unfurled, echoing sombre notes premonitory of her dark fate.

    Inside the medical theatre, an electronic speaker blared a gospel song that whirled like a dirge through the air: “I surrender to you! I surrender to you!” 

    Amid the peal of faith and surrender, Anita stirred to the sharp intrusion of a knife cutting through her belly. But barely one minute into the caesarean section (c-section), the haze of anaesthesia receded and the cutting pain of the surgeon’s blade sliced through her body.

    At every thrust of the surgeon’s hands, gobs of flesh and innards were yanked aside in reckless abandon, splattering the theatre in bloody red and soiling the sterile green of the sheets.

    Anita gasped. Then she wailed: “Aargh! What are you doing to me? Stop! Don’t do that! Please, don’t do that! Jesus, please save me. I am in pain! Aargh! Aargh!” Her voice, worn with agony, was met with chilling indifference.

    A voice, detached and careless, tossed a dispassionate word back at her: “Sorry.” Yet, the knife did not pause. The attending surgeon, Dr. Okusanya Abimbola, pressed on, pulling and tearing at Anita’s flesh, scraping through her belly as though her pleas were no more than a distant lament. As the surgeon’s hands dug deeper, Anita’s voice faded in the clatter of the operating theatre, leaving only the refrain of the gospel song playing jarringly in the background: “I surrender to you! I surrender to you!”

    However, in that theatre, it wasn’t Anita’s soul surrendering to divinity; the 32-year-old surrendered to the brute spunk of medical negligence.

    The aftermath…

    As Dr. Abimbola extracted the child from the ruins of the mother’s body, the air grew thick with a haunting stillness as Anita lay motionless in the bloodied sheets. Was she gone? Or was she merely suspended in the throes of death? These questions lingered, unanswered, in the medical theatre.

    The scene was unthinkable; a macabre circus where the doctor and his nursing assistant tore through Anita’s belly and recklessly chopped at her innards. Subsequently, they shoved a large wad of cotton wool into her gaping wound and impatiently pulled it out, in a futile effort to stanch the torrent of blood that gushed from her belly.

    “I saw a nurse bring out three big bowls of blood during the operation,” recounted Evwiarivi Nathaniel, Anita’s husband. “I asked her what she intended to do with it, and she said she was going to pour it away,” said the chef and native of Ikeresan, Sapele, Delta State.

    From the moment the theatre doors swung open, nurses scurried in and out of the operating room, their faces tense. They assured Nathaniel that “Everything is fine”, even as their restless feet and taut grimaces told a different story. The minutes stretched into hours, until finally, one of the nurses emerged with the fruit of Anita’s labour: her child, Jaden.

    Nathaniel asked after his wife, and the nurse replied that she was fine. “She said that I should just hold on to my newborn baby,” he said, revealing his disappointment that the hospital had no baby cot to keep the child. Nathaniel’s heart clung to the newborn in his arms, but his wife’s absence gnawed at his spirit. “She’s fine,” the nurses reassured him.

    Eventually, he learned the truth from one of the nurses. Anita was gone. His beloved wife had bled out, distressed and lonely, on the surgical table. She was dead.

    A journey of no return

    Until her death, Anita had cut a perfect picture of good health. Her antenatal checkups had shown no sign of complications, even as her vitals promised a safe delivery. “She couldn’t wait to birth our first child,” disclosed Nathaniel. But fate, clothed in the sterile white of a surgical gown, had other plans.

    There is no gainsaying that the Nathaniels had confidence in the City of Salvation Hospital’s medical services. The nursing staff had taken care of Anita through her pregnancy. Thus, when her water broke at 1:00 am on August 15, 2023, her husband, Nathaniel, called the hospital. “A nurse answered my call and urged me to wait till daybreak before I brought my wife in,” he said. But spurred by excitement and first-time naivete, Nathaniel spirited his wife to the clinic at 4:30 am.

    At the hospital, a scan was conducted on Anita to determine the progression of her labour, as the 32-year-old was far from the image of fragility one might expect. She walked, climbed stairs, and did squats, guided by the nursing staff’s calm instructions. She was full of life and eager to give birth, reiterated Nathaniel. 

    “At 9:00 am, the nurse took my wife to run a scan. When the result was out, I took the result and scanned it to my brother, Amos, so he could show his doctor friends to ascertain if everything was alright. My brother thereafter confirmed to me that his doctor friend said from the scan, everything was okay,” he said. 

    But this was merely a temporary salve to his growing unease. Soon afterwards, Ifedolu Oreitan, a nurse playing the role of a “resident doctor” triggered his apprehension with the sudden suggestion of a caesarean section. Oreitan subsequently admitted in a court deposition that he examined Anita and concluded that the baby would be best delivered via a caesarean section.

    He said, “I made my recommendation for c-section around 9:00 am that same day of August 15, 2023.” This was yet another interesting episode in the build-up to the tragedy, as Oreitan, being a nurse, lacked the professional and ethical capacity to recommend a procedure that was best determined by a qualified obstetric surgeon.

    Nathaniel refused, stressing that he and his wife wanted her to have a normal vaginal delivery. And so, they waited. Despite her predicament, Anita cut a picture of strength on the hospital bed with a drip attached to her arm. But as contractions intensified, her moans of discomfort grew intense.

    Oreitan returned, more insistent now, urging Nathaniel to approve the caesarean section for his wife. With Anita’s agony more evident, Nathaniel relented and paid N150,000 of a N300,000 surgical bill. “After making the payment, I was assured that the surgeon would join them shortly. But my wife had to wait for well over eight hours before the surgeon arrived,” said Nathaniel.

    The attending surgeon, Dr. Abimbola, did not appear until late in the afternoon, he said. And when he finally did, it wasn’t with the air of urgency or in the careful assembly of a skilled team, but with Nurse Oreitan and two auxiliary nurses. This was a flagrant violation of medical personnel specifications for a caesarean section: One obstetric surgeon, one assistant surgeon, an anaesthesiologist, a paediatrician, and two qualified nurses.

    More worrisome was the fact that the crucial figure of an anesthesiologist was missing from the City of Salvation Hospital’s medical theatre. After waiting for a while, an auxiliary nurse came out to break the sad news of Anita’s death to her husband.

    “It was traumatising for me. I became miserable and heartbroken, knowing my child had become motherless. I wondered how he would survive without maternal love,” said Nathaniel.

    By the time his wife breathed her last, a death certificate, hastily issued by the Ogun State Health Board, hundreds of miles from where Anita drew her last breath, was handed to her husband, Nathaniel. However, the certificate, which was meant to account for Anita’s sudden death, raised more questions instead. Why an Ogun State death certificate, when Anita had died in Lagos?

    Experts’ take on Anita’s fate in her final hours

    Medical experts argued that the anaesthesia failed to maintain the necessary depth of unconsciousness, thus causing Anita to wake and feel intense pain as the surgeon cut into her abdomen and manipulated her internal organs. Her body’s natural response to such extreme pain, argued a consultant clinical anesthesiologist, Olumide Francis, was to “activate the fight or flight mechanism, increasing her heart rate, blood pressure, and stress hormone levels. However, in a patient weakened by childbirth, this physiological response can be dangerous.” 

    The massive loss of blood and initial surge in blood pressure (hypertension) could have caused damage, but as the surgery progressed and her blood loss increased, her blood pressure would have dropped dangerously low (hypotension).”

    This hypotension reduced blood flow to vital organs, including the heart, kidneys, and brain, leading to potential organ failure and subsequent death, argued an obstetric surgeon with a Lagos-based university teaching hospital, who pleaded anonymity.

    When the scalpel sliced through Anita’s flesh, she should have been lost in deep sleep that “general anaesthesia” promises. But the anaesthetic, meant to keep pain at bay, had thinned away, leaving her vulnerable to the piercing stab of the surgeon’s blade.

    When the 32-year-old stirred on the surgical table, she felt excruciating pain as revealed by her agonising pleas in the operating room video acquired by The Nation. Her frail but audible wail at the sting of the incision was proof of the searing agony that coursed through her veins. A studious view of the video revealed Anita’s agony as her flesh was sliced, layer by tender layer, while her consciousness was trapped in a body that could neither cry out nor flee.

    “The nerves in her abdomen contracted, sending shock waves of intolerable pain to her spine,” noted Dr Anifat Onaola, an anesthesiologist. According to her, Anita’s mind must have been caught in the confusion of half-wakefulness, unable to comprehend how she could still feel and hurt, while life bled away from her. Hence, her initial plea and agonising wail of being in pain.

    Anita’s final moments, according to expert opinion, constituted both a medical catastrophe and an unutterable violation of the sanctity of life. The surgeon, while doubling as an anesthesiologist, lacked the competence to shield her from pain. On his watch, Anita’s body, meant to be a vessel of life and creation, became a playground of unimaginable torment and death.

    The grim statistics

    Anita’s death was yet another tragic statistic in Nigeria’s maternal mortality conundrum. There is no gainsaying the country holds the unenviable title of one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world. In 2020 alone, around 82,000 women died during childbirth. Amidst this tragedy, the statistics loom ominously. Nigeria’s maternal mortality rate stands at a staggering 1,047 deaths per 100,000 births.

    “The causes of death included severe haemorrhage, high blood pressure, unsafe abortion, and obstructed labour,” reports the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2020), illuminating the harrowing reality that women like Anita face daily. With only one doctor available for every 4,000-5,000 patients, the lack of care transforms every childbirth into a roll of the dice; a gamble where the stakes are life and death.

    How City of Salvation tried to bury Anita Nathaniel’s death

    An autopsy conducted by the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital (LASUTH) unveiled chilling truths. While the medical team attributed Anita’s death to heart failure, it was discovered that the records had been manipulated. Her blood pressure readings, once steady, were altered in a desperate attempt to cover the traces of malpractice that led to Anita’s demise.

    The ink marks on the charts, for instance, revealed the extent to which the medical personnel conspired to obscure the truth. “The blood pressure initially recorded for my late wife was 110/70,” he noted with bitter clarity, “but upon her death, it was changed to 170/120,” said Nathaniel.

    Investigators from the Nigeria Police Force, led by Investigating Police Officer (IPO), SP Hauwa Idris Adamu, visited the hospital in search of the truth. What they found, however, was a litany of anomalies: there was no anesthesiologist, no paediatrician, and no assistant surgeon in attendance. Dr. Abimbola had conducted the surgery without a qualified team.

    “Instead of referring the deceased to a General Hospital for better care, the suspect (Dr. Abimbola) made a trial-and-error approach. The issuance of an Ogun State Health Board Death Certificate instead of one from Lagos State, where the hospital is located, raised concerns,” stated Adamu.

    The hospital became a scene of concealment as key documents, including Anita’s antenatal records, vanished into thin air. The files that remained had been tampered with and manipulated in a desperate attempt to erase the hospital’s role in her death, according to the IPO’s report.

    The hospital management claimed they were safeguarding the files, which further deepened concerns. Further attempts to get to the root of the matter were thwarted as the management, when confronted, offered nothing but vague explanations.

    Although the hospital was sealed by the Health Facility Monitoring and Accreditation Agency (HEFAMAA) in the wake of the incident last year, further findings revealed that HEFAMAA conveniently turned a blind eye as the City of Salvation Hospital resumed operations amid a frantic makeover of its hitherto derelict facilities. In the process, evidence crucial to the investigation of Anita’s death disappeared. When the police returned for a second inspection, the scene had been tainted and the clues to Anita’s death had disappeared in a haze of hasty renovation.

    The police arrested Nurse Oreitan, whose role in the operating room was deemed inappropriate and illegal. And then, there was Dr. Abimbola, the surgeon who performed the botched ceaserian section on the deceased, and whom the police identified as the principal suspect. Although he subsequently came forward, he did so not as one burdened with guilt. He arrived at the police station on October 19, 202, almost two months after the incident, flanked by his lawyers. He was subsequently charged and made a voluntary statement.

    Attempts to speak with Dr. Abimbola have so far been unproductive. Since Tuesday, September 24, he has repeatedly spurned attempts to interview him, ignoring five successful calls to his phone at 12:10 pm, 12:11 pm, 12:27 pm, 12:29 pm and 13:24 pm, respectively. At the fifth try, he switched off his phone, and subsequently ignored a message and request for an interview over late Anita’s botched C-section.

    On Friday, September 27, more calls were placed to his second phone number which was accessed by The Nation after much effort, but having answered the call, he ended it abruptly, just after identifying that he was Dr. Okusanya Abimbola. Subsequently, five successful calls were placed to his line at 9:30 am, 9:31 am, 9:32 am, 9:33 am and 9:38 am, respectively. Then a message was sent to his line, which also bears an associated identity with Atlas Medicare, via normal SMS route and WhatsApp at exactly 9:42 am, establishing that he had repeatedly ignored the news medium’s calls.

    To this, he sent the terse response: “Good morning Sir/Ma. I have received your message. Will respond to you shortly via WhatsApp.” Even though The Nation sent him a couple of questions, urging him to respond to allegations made against him by Nathaniel and the City of Salvation Hospital, Dr. Abimbola failed to respond.

    A perusal of his court deposition, however, revealed that Dr. Abimbola, like his former employer, the City of Salvation Hospital, sought to exonerate himself from liability for Anita’s botched surgery and subsequent death.

    Abimbola, who at the time of the operation was the Medical Director of the City of Salvation Hospital, held that Anita presented with high blood pressure (170/120 mm Hg), eclampsia. And that despite the doctor (Nurse Oreitan)’s advice for an elective caesarean section, she and her husband declined, opting for a vaginal delivery based on their faith. “They also declined admission, saying that they will apply their faith and pray for a vaginal delivery,” he said.

    Dr. Abimbola claimed that he had already booked an anesthesiologist, but the couple’s delay in agreeing to a caesarean section prevented the former from being part of the surgery, thus establishing that the hospital had no in-house anaesthesiologist.

    He said, “When I weighed the consequences of a further delay, I decided to go ahead with the C-Section in the hope of saving the life of the mother and her baby. I opted for a mild general anaesthetic since there was no one to give the deceased spinal anaesthesia. The dosage was subliminal since I did not want her BP (Blood Pressure) to shoot up. The baby came out very weak and floppy but responded to resuscitation.

    “Suddenly, SPO2 (Saturated Percentage of Oxygen) was noticed to be dropping, and the deceased stopped breathing. CPR (Cardio Pulmonary Resuscitation) was commenced immediately. All efforts at resuscitation proved unfruitful and abortive. I pronounced her dead at about 4 pm. In my opinion, the cause of death was intra op of complications of eclampsia, which resulted from the delay in performing the CS due to the delay in giving consent.”

    The surgeon claimed that he performed the operation “professionally and diligently” to the best of his ability and training as a medical doctor.

    Hospital ducks liability, accuses sacked surgeon of culpability

    At The Nation‘s visit to the City of Salvation Hospital in Egbeda,

    it was discovered that Dr. Abimbola, had been sacked. The nursing staff murmured that Nurse Oriretan, who stood by him during the surgery had also been dismissed.

    Speaking with The Nation, the hospital’s current Medical Director, Dr. Adeyiwolu Damilare, hinted at the failures of his predecessor. In a subtle disclaimer, he stated that, “A doctor must approach and recognise each case as a peculiar one. He must be cautious in handling cases. What if the patient is his blood relative? He would take extra care, won’t he? If the woman (late Anita) walked in with her two legs, are you, as the doctor, saying you don’t know when to intervene and how to intervene? If you take the vitals and you see that you don’t have the facilities to manage her case, the next thing for you to do as the doctor is to get a quick intervention,” he said.

    According to him, immediately a doctor realises that a patient’s case is beyond his facility, he must seek emergency intervention from a more equipped facility. “That is when you know a good doctor. We know when a patient’s case is going to deteriorate. We know if we have the equipment to manage it or not. When you give an anaesthetic agent, you factor in the weight and body mass of the patient. This would determine the degree of anaesthetic agent that will be used on the patient. Someone with greater body fat or mass would require a greater quantity to prevent it from wearing off earlier. Once it wears off on your patient and you see that you are not done with the surgery, you look at the blood pressure and it is hitting the roof, you shouldn’t administer anaesthesia on the patient again, because if you do, it’s going to cause a hypertensive emergency.”

    With a pastoral calm that belied the tragedy, Pastor Abel, the hospital’s spiritual overseer, also argued that, “This is not between the hospital and the Nathaniel family. The matter lies between Dr. Abimbola and the Nathaniels.” So doing, he sought to absolve the hospital of guilt and culpability for the surgery, negligence, and Anita’s death.

    The standard practice for caesarean section

    Dr. Habeebah Ishaq, a UK-based Consultant Paediatrician and former staff member of Reddington Hospital, explained that Anita’s death likely resulted from a broken or damaged blood vessel, possibly due to accidental ligation of a blood vessel. She emphasised that a proper caesarean section requires “at least two doctors—one lead surgeon and an assistant—along with a qualified anesthesiologist, an assistant anesthesiologist, and one or two trained nurses, not auxiliary nurses.” She described it as criminal negligence that only one doctor, one nursing assistant, and an auxiliary nurse performed Anita’s surgery, arguing that an anesthesiologist could have eased her pain, instead of relying on one person acting as both surgeon and anesthesiologist.

    She clarified that the surgeon’s role is to operate and ensure the mother’s safety, while managing pain and anaesthesia is the anaesthetist’s responsibility, and that Anita’s waking up during surgery indicated a failure in proper anaesthesia administration.

    Dr. Ishaq explained further that the standard practice for caesarean section is to use spinal anaesthesia, which numbs the lower body without putting the patient to sleep. General anaesthesia is only used in cases of complications during labour where there is an immediate threat to the baby’s life. Proper general anaesthesia would have kept Anita unconscious throughout the surgery and into recovery, preventing her from waking prematurely, she said.

    The shortage of skilled anaesthesiologists in Nigeria is a significant contributor to the country’s high maternal mortality rate, especially among women undergoing Caesarean sections (CS). Anaesthesiologists play a vital role in ensuring the safety of women during surgery by managing pain and preventing complications. They have knowledge of acute physiology and are adept at fluid management, invasive monitoring and other aspects of intensive care, thus, they are an integral part of the team managing obstetric complications, including the critically ill mother with obstetric haemorrhage, sepsis or eclampsia, according to Prof. Elizabeth Ogboli-Nwasor, of the Department of Anaesthesia, Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Zaria, Kaduna.

    On her part, Dr. Bisola Onajin-Obembe, the President of The Global Alliance of Surgical, Obstetric, Trauma, and Anaesthesia Care (G4 Alliance), emphasised the need to address the critical shortage of anaesthesia providers in Africa. Though the continent houses nearly 17 per cent of the global population, most people lack access to safe anaesthesia services due to a dire shortfall in trained professionals. For instance, while the U.S. has around 20 anesthesiologists per 100,000 people, Nigeria averages only 0.58. This disparity, according to her, highlights the global anaesthesia workforce crisis, with sub-Saharan Africa particularly falling far below the recommended four anaesthetists per 100,000 population. By 2030, the region will need more than 300,000 additional anesthesiologists.

    Drawing from her extensive experience as a lead consultant anesthesiologist at the University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital and her involvement in Nigeria’s National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia, and Nursing Plan (NSOANP), she advocated recently, for an in-depth understanding of regional healthcare systems, emphasising the need for strategic planning, collaboration with established institutions to create effective training programs. She noted that partnerships with entities like the University of Global Health Equity and the G4 Alliance are crucial to enhancing health equity and leadership in anaesthesia.

    But that is in the long run; in the short run, thousands of pregnant Nigerian women will continue to consult with private medical facilities, like the City of Salvation Hospital, where they may be subjected to substandard medical care. One year after, the hospital stays mum over the details of the newly married bride and first-time mother’s tragic demise.

    The truth, however, is as fragile as the 32-year-old’s final breath, and stays buried beneath layers of excuses. As Nathaniel, the deceased’s widower, grapples with her loss, he is bent on securing justice against the hospital and the medical personnel deemed liable for her botched surgery. So doing, he hopes to inspire many who have suffered a similar fate to seek redress. Besides filing a petition for an inquest into the suspicious death of his wife, he has also instituted legal action against the hospital and the personnel deemed complicit.

    To Nathaniel, Anita’s death was no mere happenstance, but an avoidable tragedy inflicted by supposed healers; by a system that offered them assurances of quality medical care, only to cut short his wife’s life, prematurely.

    For the 37-year-old, moving forward is an endless pilgrimage through grief. As he fights for justice, he must shoulder the burden of parenthood alone, tending to his 13-month-old son, Jaden. Each day without Anita is like a chasm that consumes Nathaniel whole. Her death has created a void in his life that no measure of time can fill.

    “Most nights, when I cradle my son to sleep, I remember the day City of Salvation killed his mother with carelessness. I can’t get over the pain,” he said.

    For the 37-year-old, moving on as a widower and single father of an infant is punishing. Every time he looks at his son, said Nathaniel, he relives the unfortunate hour of his wife’s death at the City of Salvation Hospital, Lagos. He recalls the auxiliary nurse’s spirited reassurance and the illusion of safety it offered as his wife lay bleeding out beneath the surgeon’s blade, her body lifeless in the sterile theatre of failed care.

    Additional report by ALAO ABIODUN

  • Heaven can wait! Bitter reality of Nigeria’s pension trap

    Heaven can wait! Bitter reality of Nigeria’s pension trap

    Starvation, death, grip elderly retirees amid economic hardship

    A labyrinth of broken promises, bureaucratic neglect leaves pensioners in despair

    The Silent Thieves of Twilight: Arithmetic of Nigeria’s Pension Fraud

    Sunday Oboite hit the floor with a hard thud, his clatter reverberating through the large hall—a threnody for those who still clung to life, while dying to receive their pension.

    At 1:20 pm, Oboite fell, not the thump of flesh on cold concrete, but the crash of hope shattering on the granite of a broken vow.

    The 75-year-old had been waiting, silently, with hundreds of fellow retirees who had gathered in the dimly-lit hall of the Oredo Local Council Secretariat in Benin City, Edo State, to receive their meagre pensions after a ten-month delay.

    But as the sun arched high over the Secretariat, Oboite slumped forward, his body no longer able to bear the burden of waiting.

    His fellow retirees scrambled—some to help, others fleeing, as if falling was contagious.

    At precisely 1:38 pm, doctors would confirm what every pensioner in that hall already knew: Oboite was dead, not from a stroke, nor from an unforeseen illness, but from starvation—starved of sustenance, of both food and dignity.

    His death arrived as a brutal punctuation to the long, agonising sentence that was his final years, triggering a question that pierced the heart of Nigeria’s moral fibre: “Must the government starve its elderly to death?”

    Oboite had served the government for decades, working in the Works Department of the Oredo Local Council. Like many of his colleagues, he had believed in the promise that at the end of his service, his twilight years would be spent in peace, supported by the pension he had earned. Instead, he found himself trapped in a cruel purgatory, waiting in vain for months, as hunger gnawed at his insides. The pension arrears, which had become his lifeline, dangled just out of reach, a cruel tease that would eventually cost him his life.

    The morning of his death, Oboite had arrived at the secretariat at 8 am, hoping to be screened and finally paid his dues. But bureaucracy, as always, was the slowest-moving beast. After hours of waiting, pensioners were directed to a hall a hundred meters away. Oboite, too weak to walk any further, had chosen to wait behind, his body betraying him in its exhaustion. By 1:20 pm, he had collapsed. By 1:38 pm, the doctor’s cold pronouncement: Dead.

    “It was hunger that killed him,” John Eweka, a fellow retiree, whispered bitterly, his voice cracking like old leather in the heat. “Many of us can no longer afford to eat. We begged for what is ours, and they denied us even that.”

    Four hundred and fifty four days later, Oboite’s body still laid cold in the morgue, abandoned like the promises of the government that failed him. His family could not afford the burial costs, and his colleagues, equally impoverished, could do nothing to help. Even the eventual promise of financial support from the Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki felt hollow, a posthumous mockery for a man who had died of neglect.

    Before Oboite, there was Olusa Ayodele, an 80-year-old man who collapsed under the weight of government indifference. Ayodele had retired from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, only to face a fate worse than the toils of his youth. On October 10, 2011, Ayodele traveled a painful journey of hours from his village of Akunnu-Akoko to Akure, where he was due to undergo yet another “verification” for pension arrears that had long been owed. Fevered and weak, Ayodele arrived at the verification centre only to vomit twice—a grim harbinger of the end. His son, Deji, cried for help, but none came.

    Like Oboite, Ayodele died waiting, his body abandoned on the bare floor for hours as his fellow retirees quietly maintained their spots on the queue, heartbroken yet hard-pressed to complete their screening.

    Ayodele’s death, like Oboite’s, was a slow, bureaucratic “murder” executed in the guise of “verification” and administrative delays.

    Nigeria’s retired workforce, now shadows of their former selves, suffer these in the twilight of their existence. The reality is, however, darker than any statistic could capture, with over one million retirees left stranded, awaiting pensions that may never come.

    The Curse of African Alliance

    Many retirees are forced to endure a life of misery and starvation as imposed by systemic and administrative failures. One of the most egregious examples of the system’s failures can be found in the recent collapse of the African Alliance Insurance Plc. Pensioners, who trusted the company with their life savings, now find themselves destitute as the company falters under the weight of insolvency.

    For months, retirees flocked to African Alliance offices, hoping for a glimmer of hope. Instead, they found the doors locked, the offices deserted, and their pensions vanished into the ether. “We have been abandoned,” lamented Monsurat Idris, a retired teacher from Dopemu, Lagos. Like so many others, she had switched to an annuity plan, promised “salary for life,” only to watch helplessly as her entitlements dwindled into nothingness.

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    Idris recalled how African Alliance’s representatives persuaded her and fellow retirees to dump the programmed withdrawal plan recommended by the state government for the firm’s annuity plan. They even encouraged several retirees to borrow money while waiting for their entitlements. When those entitlements finally arrived, most of it vanished into debt repayment, leaving retirees even poorer than before. The once-thriving insurance firm now stands as a monument to failure, with its top executives deserting their posts while pensioners weep over unpaid claims.

    Musiliu Ganiu, a retired teacher from Lagos, while reliving his nightmare with the insurer, disclosed that since March, many retirees haven’t received a dime from the firm. He lamented that African Alliance promised him and his colleagues lifelong payments. But the insurer is now in distress, having shut down its headquarters, its promises dissolving into thin air.

    In August 2023, pensioners in Lagos State, under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), made a desperate appeal to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, to come to their aid. In a letter dated August 20, 2023, the Nigerian Union of Pensioners (NUP), Lagos State Chapter, lamented their unpaid pensions dating back to 2007, leaving retirees impoverished.

    Stripped of gratuities and forced to subsist on meagre payments, many like a former Director on grade level 17, now receive only N70,000 monthly, while lower-level workers earn as little as N12,000—or none at all in the case of those on grade levels 1 to 4.

    “We receive an average of ten notifications of death of our members on a monthly basis,” the union wrote, underscoring the severity of the situation. They attribute these deaths to the economic hardship faced by retirees, who are unable to keep up with rising living costs, especially in light of the recent fuel subsidy removal.

    The letter, signed by the NUP’s Chairman, Omisande Michael and General Secretary, Olagbaye Johnson, included a plea for immediate action, including the urgent payment of outstanding pensions dating back to 2020, a review of the pension payment system, and the reinstatement of gratuity for all categories of workers under the CPS.

    Subsequently, the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, in a tweet on February 11, 2024, announced that Lagos would begin payment of N3.1 billion to over 1,000 pensioners under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS).

    Abebi Adebola, a retired school administrator and Headteacher in Lagos said that, so far, Lagos State has performed most commendably among the 36 states of the federation, in the way it treats its pensioners. Save for some occasional hiccups, retirees receive their money at due time.

    According to her, some of her colleagues who retired in 2012 were luckier as they received 50 per cent initial lump payment of their entitlement in 2013, one year after their retirement. However, retirees like Adebola, who retired in 2015, had to wait for a gruelling 46 months before they received their gratuity. When they did, they were paid a paltry 25 percent of their entitlement.

    The scale of the tragedy stretches far beyond individual stories. In Kwara State, over a million pensioners, precisely 1,126,000 retirees died between January 2015 and February 2017, according to the state chapter of the National Union of Pensioners (NUP) – a staggering toll that reflects the sheer depth of the crisis.

    The life of a Nigerian pensioner is indeed, one bitter struggle, where survival hinges on a meager stipend of N500, N10,560, N25,000, or at best, N70,000 per month. Even this paltry amount arrives unpredictably. “The pension offers little succor,” laments Florence Alogba, 62. “It is never enough, especially with the rising cost of food.” The delay in payment compounds the hardship. “By the time the stipend comes,” said Foluso Okin, a retired principal, “it goes toward debts—medical bills, school fees, loans. We never enjoy it. They said a teacher’s reward is in heaven. But I want my reward on this earth.”

    For some, the burden of an unemployed family adds to the weight. Idowu Ojo, a retired teacher, recounted the anguish of his unemployed sons: “My daughter’s husband works, but the whole family depends on her. We try not to be a burden, but the government’s failure forces our hand.”

    Beyond the unpaid pensions, retirees face another torment: corruption. In southwestern Nigeria, retired teachers must bribe pension staff to process their files. “We pay N50,000 just to have our files treated,” revealed a retired primary school teacher, pleading anonymity.

    Worse still is the Ebonyi State scandal, where extortionists in the audit department reportedly demanded money to process the files of retirees. One of the retirees who was not pleased with the new arrangement, Benedict Anyigor, said that he had already paid N50,000 but his file was withheld by the accused officials of the State’s Audit Department.

    “I was supposed to be paid N4,787,081. Out of this amount, government has paid me N800,000 but one of the officials in the state audit and his colleague who have been processing my file for payment, said I should settle them with 200,000 out of this amount for immediate payment or my file will not be sent to the Head of Service for the payment.

    “I have already given them N50,000 out of the N200,000. I told them that I will pay the remaining N150, 000 after receiving full payment of the gratuity from the government which they have started paying. But he increased the amount of settlement to N500,000 and insisted that I must pay him the amount before he releases my file to the Head of Service for the payment and I don’t have the amount. I retired as a Level 8, Step 15 officer at the General Hospital, Onueke in Ezza South Local Government Area of the state,” he said.

    Reacting to the allegations, the state’s Auditor General at the period, Innocent Nweda, vowed to dismiss the culprits. He promised to investigate the alleged scandal stressing that in 2012, about four principal members of staff of the Audit were dismissed for a similar crime.

    A larger gale of corruption sweeps through the pensions office of the Federal Civil Service. Nigerians won’t forget in a hurry, the scandalous case of Abdulrasheed Maina, the former Director of the Customs, Immigration, and Prisons Pensions Office (CIPPO) and Chairman of the Pension Reform Task Team (PRTT). In 2013, Maina fled the country after being implicated in a N2.1 billion pension fraud by the EFCC. Despite public outrage, he was secretly reinstated and promoted under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, only to flee again to avoid prosecution.

    Maina was eventually sentenced to eight years in prison after a two-year trial. Justice Okon Abang criticised the United Bank of Africa (UBA) and Fidelity Bank, accusing them of being “conduits” for the fraud and suggesting they should have been charged. The court found that Maina used fake accounts, with the help of relatives in the banking sector, to siphon funds from pensioners, many of whom died in poverty.

    Justice Abang condemned Maina’s lavish lifestyle, noting he lived in luxury abroad, while pensioners suffered. He emphasised that Maina’s salary of just over N300,000 could never have amounted to the N2 billion he stole, calling the case a reflection of the moral decay in society. The judge urged for national reform and stronger action against dishonesty.

    And still, the system remains unchanged. The National Pension Commission (NPC), created to oversee the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), has failed to enforce its own regulations. Many states have not even adopted the CPS, instead continuing under the archaic Defined Benefits Scheme (DBS), where pensions are either delayed or denied outright.

    The promises of reform—like those made by African Alliance—ring hollow in the ears of retirees. NAICOM, the industry regulator, has issued ultimatums, demanding that pension fund administrators clear their debts and settle arrears, but the threats go unenforced. Instead, retirees are left to live—or die—without the money they were guaranteed.

    It is a nationwide plague, a systemic failure that leaves millions of retirees in the grip of hunger, illness, and despair. The Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), introduced in 2004 and amended in 2014, was supposed to bring transparency and security to the retirement process. Yet, 20 years later, the reality has fallen far short of that promise.

    The Arithmetic of Pension Fraud in Nigeria

    The arithmetic of pension fraud in Nigeria unfolds like a tragic tale of exploitation, where Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) weave intricate schemes to rob pensioners of their hard-earned savings. These institutions, entrusted with securing the future of retirees, instead cloak their actions in secrecy, siphoning wealth from the vulnerable. To unravel the mechanisms by which they prey upon the unsuspecting – hidden behind veils of fees, mismanagement, and outright theft – is to embark on a jarring journey into the bowels of an arithmetical con.

    Beneath the surface of every pensioner’s account lies an unseen hand, quietly taking its due, argued Khadijah Ilemobaye, an Actuarian scientist cum insurance auditor. Explaining further, she said, a pensioner, with ₦10 million in savings, unknowingly surrenders 1.5% of that sum each year—₦150,000 in annual fees that slip through the cracks of undisclosed charges. Over a decade, this amounts to ₦1.5 million, silently drained without the pensioner’s knowledge, a slow bleed of their future security.

     The PFAs, like the proverbial masters of illusion, invest pensioners’ funds in low-yield government securities. While these investments generate meager returns, the PFAs impose high management fees, further eroding the value of these already modest gains. Imagine a pension fund of ₦5 million, invested in a bond yielding a mere 6%. The pensioner earns ₦300,000 per year, yet the PFA takes 2%—₦100,000—as its fee. The pensioner is left with only ₦200,000, believing the returns are better than they are, while the true cost is hidden beneath layers of financial jargon and opaque reports.

    In the dark recesses of the system, corrupt officials conjure “ghost pensioners” into existence. These phantom figures, fictitious names on payrolls, are used to divert vast sums of money. A PFA managing 100,000 real pensioners might fabricate 10,000 ghost pensioners, each assigned ₦500,000 in fraudulent pensions. In this spectral arithmetic, ₦5 billion vanishes, spirited away into the coffers of those who feed on the trust of the system, leaving the pension fund diminished by this insidious scam.

     Time, in the hands of the PFAs, often becomes a weapon of control as payments due to pensioners are deliberately delayed, extending the period during which the PFA controls the funds. A pensioner awaiting ₦5 million may face a delay of six months, during which the PFA earns an 8% annual interest. In this short span, the PFA collects ₦200,000 in interest, profiting from the pensioner’s enforced patience. This delay not only disrupts lives but compounds the injustice by allowing the PFA to gain from withholding what rightfully belongs to another.

    With monthly contributions flowing steadily, some PFAs quietly divert portions into their own pockets. A pensioner contributing ₦50,000 each month may find that ₦10,000 is secretly rerouted to fraudulent accounts. Over 10 years—120 months—this diversion amounts to ₦1.2 million stolen from a single pensioner. With 10,000 pensioners in their grasp, the PFAs can embezzle a staggering ₦12 billion, a grand theft concealed in the monotony of monthly deductions.

    For some pensioners, the final blow comes at the moment of retirement. The gratuity, the lump sum meant to provide for their twilight years, is intercepted. A group of retirees expecting ₦1 billion in gratuities may find only half paid out, as corrupt officials siphon away ₦500 million. The pensioners, left with half their entitlement, face a future diminished by the greed of those entrusted with their care.

     For one pensioner, the toll of these fraudulent practices is devastating. Over a decade, they lose: ₦1.5 million in hidden administrative fees, ₦1 million in excessive investment charges, ₦1.2 million siphoned from their contributions, ₦200,000 lost to delayed payments. In total, ₦3.9 million is stolen from a single pensioner over 10 years. Multiply this across thousands, and the scale of the fraud balloons into billions of naira—an unfathomable betrayal of trust.

    Nigeria’s Pensions Animal Farm: Four legs good, two legs bad

    Like the tidal waves that slowly erode the shore, Nigeria’s pension crisis has been silently consuming its elderly for decades. The promises that once gleamed like golden dreams have become rusted, hollowed out by legal loopholes, hidden charges, and predatory practices. Nowhere is this betrayal more stark than in the government’s imposition of a shocking 25% cap on initial withdrawals, a cruel twist that leaves retirees with only a quarter of the savings they’ve painstakingly accumulated over decades.

    The full promises of a dignified retirement dissolve like fog at dawn, leaving only a fraction of the anticipated savings for the elderly to live on. Imagine spending decades working, contributing to a pension fund, believing in the promise of security, only to discover that when the moment comes to access your savings, you are handed a mere quarter of what you are owed. The remaining 75%? Locked away, dripped out in agonisingly small sums over the years.

    Introduced under the guise of ensuring long-term financial stability, the 25% cap has instead become a death sentence for retirees. While pensioners who spent about 35 years in the service of their country wallow in abject poverty occasioned by their inability to access their benefits, former governors and deputies—who served for a mere four or eight years—are ushered into retirement with lavish gifts, the likes of which would make kings envious.

    Until recently, Lagos State stood as a stark example of this paradox. Enshrined in the Public Office Holder (Payment of Pension) Law No 11, within the official Gazette of 2007, lies a provision that guarantees a governor, upon leaving office, a lifetime pension equal to the full salary of the sitting governor—that is, N7.7 million annually. The former governor is also granted free healthcare for himself and his family, six brand-new cars every three years, and an array of allowances fit for royalty: 300% of the annual salary for furniture (N23.3m), 10% for house maintenance (N778,296), 20% for utilities (N1.5m), and 30% for car upkeep (N2.3m).

    But the largesse doesn’t end there. A former governor enjoys the luxury of an entertainment allowance (N778,296) and a personal assistant earning a quarter of the governor’s own salary (N1.9m). Domestic workers—a cook, a steward, a gardener, and more—are placed at their service, with their positions even made pensionable. For security, eight policemen and two state security officers stand sentinel for life.

    In the wake of protracted outrage over the bumper package, however, the Lagos State House of Assembly, in 2022, amended the state Pension Law for former governors and other political office holders, reducing their benefits and emoluments by 50 per cent. The House expunged the provision of houses in Abuja and Lagos for former governors, Sequel to the presentation of a report by the House Committee on Establishment, Training and Pension.

    It further recommended a reduction in the number of vehicles to be made available to former governors and their deputies as the House Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, suggested that the former governors should get two vehicles (a car and a van) instead of the three recommended by the committee, and advised that the cars be changed every four years instead of the three years previously recommended by the report.

    Elsewhere, Delta State offers its ex-governors a fully furnished duplex in any state of their choosing, and also full medical care for their families, two vehicles (including a utility car) every two years, and a protective entourage of armed officers. Fifteen days of annual vacation in any part of the world are but another pearl on this string of luxurious benefits. Meanwhile, in Kano, the former leaders are gifted with a six-bedroom mansion and healthcare for life, while Ekiti provides its retired governors with a plush five-bedroom duplex, two cars, a pilot vehicle to be replaced every three years, and 300% of the annual salary for furniture.

    In Rivers State, Celestine Omehia, whose governorship was nullified by the Supreme Court, still walked away with a princely sum of N695 million in entitlements.

    Across at least 22 states, from Oyo to Zamfara, Kwara to Rivers, similar stories echo: ex-governors and their deputies luxuriate in the fruits of their brief tenures, their coffers brimming with the spoils of jumbo pensions, while civil servants who toiled for decades in the nation’s service languish, unpaid and forgotten.

    At the federal level, the story turns no less extravagant. In the 2023 budget, a staggering N13 billion was earmarked for the pensions of former Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Heads of State, retired chiefs of service, permanent secretaries, and heads of agencies. There is no record, none at all, of any of the recipients lamenting unpaid pensions, no whisper of delay in their vast entitlements.

    Meanwhile, the retired civil servants, who dedicated 35 years of their lives to the nation, wait in vain for their dues. Against the backdrop of the malady, the scales of justice occasionally tilted on the side of truth. In 2019, the Federal High Court in Lagos, under the gavel of Justice Oluremi Oguntoyinbo, declared these life pensions for ex-governors and deputies illegal, immoral even. The Attorney General was ordered to take swift legal action to abolish these laws and recover the ill-gotten funds.

    Previously, in the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) v Attorney-General of the Federation, (Suit No. FHC/L/CS/1497/2017 and Alhaji Garba Umar v Taraba State Government (Suit No: NICN/JOS/26/2016, the Federal High Court and the National Industrial Court declared as null and void the payment of pension and gratuity to former governors and deputy governors.

    Senators Gbenga Daniel and Ibrahim Dankwambo, both former governors, have also directed the governments of their respective  states, Ogun and Gombe respectively, to stop paying them a governor’s pension since they are currently receiving salaries and allowances in the National Assembly just as the governments of Kwara, Imo and Zamfara States have abolished the payment of the controversial pensions to their former governors and their deputies.

    “We call on other state governments to abolish the pension as soon as possible. Nigeria can no longer afford to pay scandalous pension to ex-governors while workers are owed arrears of meagre pensions,” said Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana (SAN).

    However the payment of the lavish pensions for ex-governors and deputies continue unabated.

    Navigating the Trap

    On September 17, 2024, the National Pension Commission (PenCom) announced that total pension assets have reached N20.79 trillion. However, only seven states—Lagos, Kaduna, Delta, Ekiti, Osun, Edo, and Jigawa—and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) have fully implemented the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS).

    PenCom’s Acting Director General, Omolola Oloworararan, highlighted the steady growth of pension funds, noting that states had remitted over N236.7 billion between January 2020 and mid-2024. She emphasized the benefits of adopting the CPS, such as access to pension funds for infrastructure projects through state bonds. Lagos, Niger, Osun, Ekiti, and Delta have successfully issued state bonds backed by pension funds, with projects like the Lekki-Ikoyi Bridge in Lagos benefiting from this funding.

    PenCom, she said, is focused on engaging 26 states with CPS or CDBS laws that have yet to begin implementation, aiming to ensure that all retirees receive timely benefits. The commission is also working to resolve accrued rights payments and ensure pension increments in line with the Nigerian Constitution, stated Oloworararan.

    Regardless of her sunny assurances, Oloworararan may find it difficult convincing millions of pensioners caught in a maelstrom of unpaid benefits and neglect.

    A higher proportion (70%) of the retired, aged, and ageing population in Nigeria earns N50,000 per month or less or nothing, according to a study sample by Dataphyte and JAIRAA. At this income level, the retired, aged, and ageing (RAAs) live below the global poverty line. According to the World Bank, the poverty line is estimated at $2.15 or N3,190 per day (at N1,484 per dollar).

    For those nearing retirement, the lesson is clear: vigilance is the only armour. Nigerians must demand transparency from pension fund administrators, refusing to be lured by the false promises of higher returns, advised Usman Shoyode, an insurance auditor and financial risk analyst. To PFAs, he suggested that retirement savings must be diversified and spread more transparently across multiple funds to mitigate the risk of loss.

    Above all, the 25% cap must be challenged, both in the law courts and in the hearts of the people, who must demand that their government provide the full measure of what they are owed.

    It is also very essential to research and choose pension fund administrators (PFAs) carefully. Avoid companies with a history of delayed payments or unresolved claims, and opt for those with a proven track record of stability. Furthermore, retirees may consider diversifying their retirement investments. Relying solely on the pension system can be a recipe for disaster, as the stories above illustrate. Personal savings, real estate investments, or even small-scale business ventures can provide additional security in a country where government promises are often as fragile as the lives they are meant to protect.

    As the sun sets on the lives of those who once carried Nigeria on their shoulders, it becomes ever more urgent for the nation to confront the grim reality of its pension system. Because for every Ayodele who falls, and for every Oboite whose heart gives out, the very soul of the nation weakens. It was on a sunless day that they both fell, into the abyss of a failed promise. Their last breaths churning against the silence of those who watched their struggle and did nothing. The aged civil servants, who once who tilled the earth and built roads for the living, got railroaded, destitute and disenchanted, into an early grave.

  • Teen killers on the prowl: Tragic rise of Nigeria’s child cultists

    Teen killers on the prowl: Tragic rise of Nigeria’s child cultists

    A new breed of predators haunts the streets: young, ruthless, armed with death

    How campus cults bled into the streets

    Fears heighten as teen gangs recruit primary school minors

    Psychology of a child cultist

    The rain fell like silver tears from a mournful sky that April night. It slashed across the tarmac, drenching Mojirayo and five-month-old Olaide tucked snugly in woolen oja, on her back. As she made her way home from Lagos Island, crossing the arc of the unfinished bridge at Pen Cinema, Agege, Lagos, a teenage boy stepped out of the darkness.

    Peter Otun, aka Drogba, was barely 14, but his eyes held the gaze of someone who had done too much. His hands, coarse from wielding weapons, stuck out like a weapon. His fingers grasped at Mojirayo’s thin wrapper, his intent as cold as the steel fork he carried, its tines crudely reshaped into a dagger. He wanted her money and body.

    Startled, Mojirayo spun on her feet, ducking Otun’s frantic grope. He was by every means too young to “obtain” (rob) her or get between her thighs. ‘Ko nse iru e. Afi ti o ba fe ku!” she railed, warning him that she was out of his league and any attempt on her would spell his death. Instantly, Otun’s crew emerged from the dark, incensed by her seeming fearlessness.

    Undeterred, Otun lunged for Mojirayo barking at her to surrender her money or lose her life, but she ducked once again, and his hand grazed her bosom, attracting a stinging slap to his face. Now livid, Otun grabbed at his quarry, pulling her close, he swung his left hand blindly at her midriff.

    Mojirayo turned and a soft yelp pierced the night. But it petered out like the tweet of a bird caught in a dying flutter. Otun had lunged for the mother, but instead speared her five-month-old daughter on the left side of her temple.

    After the scream, came silence. Mojirayo’s world shook as her baby’s blood ran down her back, warming her skin as it mingled with the rain. Fraught with fear, she frantically undid her ‘oja’ (girdle), and took her child in her arms.

    But the nightmare was not over. Otun and his gang, hauled the embattled mother into a dingy grove under the bridge. There they made her spread her wrapper in the dirt and set the bleeding child roughly at its edge. They held her firmly to the ground, and took turns on her. Six of them. Mojirayo begged them to let her save her daughter, but they silenced her with blows.

    By the time it was all over, the 22-year-old sprang from the dirt bed in which she was defiled; gathering her wrapper around her, she clutched her baby and ran through the streets in search of a clinic. The nearest one she stumbled into could do nothing.

    “Brought in dead,” the resident doctor said.

    An infant’s final moments

    There is no gainsaying Olaide’s final moments were marked by unspeakable agony and horror. As the sharpened fork pierced the soft, vulnerable temple of her head, the delicate bone structure gave way to the violent intrusion. The temple, a region where the skull is thinner and softer in infants, houses vital blood vessels, nerves, and parts of the brain crucial for life.

    At such a tender age, Olaide’s skull had not yet fully ossified, making her particularly susceptible to catastrophic injury.

    From a medical perspective, the forceful penetration of the fork would have caused immediate, severe trauma. The sharp tines tore through the soft tissue of the scalp, broke through the fragile skull, and penetrated the brain’s protective membranes. This region of the brain, rich with blood vessels, bled profusely, leading to acute intracranial hemorrhage. The resulting pressure would have caused her brain to swell rapidly, compressing vital structures that control her breathing and heartbeat, according to clinical pathologist, Tola Disu.

    Olaide’s agony must have been unimaginable. The pain from the initial stab, instantaneous and overwhelming, sending shockwaves of agony through her chubby frame. As the fork dug deeper into her brain, the nerves responsible for sensation and movement  misfired in chaotic signals, possibly causing her body to jerk involuntarily, her eyes filled with confusion and terror as the life drained out of her.

    In those final moments, Olaide struggled for breath as the brain’s swelling pressed down on her brainstem, the control centre for basic life functions. Her pulse grew weaker, her vision fading as consciousness slipped away. But the excruciating pain persisted, ebbing only as her fragile body gave in to the overwhelming trauma. Her death was not swift; it was a tragic, brutal end to a life that had just begun. And the chief culprit was 14-year-old Otun.

    The making of a teen killer

    Peter Otun wasn’t born a monster perhaps. He was once a boy who took delight in a game console, choosing Didier Drogba as his player of choice in Pro Evolution Soccer (PES) as he jostled for honour and street acclaim across several game centres in Agege. From Olukosi, Agbotikuyo to Old Oko Oba, Otun flexed his depth winning some and losing some. What his flatfoot didn’t permit him on the pitch at Ile Pako, Oke Koto, he sought to achieve with his dexterous fingers.

    Otun loved football. But the streets of Agege shaped him into something else; something cruel and astonishingly cold.

    At 14, Otun had already tasted the bitter fruit of survival. He ran with Awawa Boys, a dreaded gang prowling the streets of Mulero, Oke Koto, Powerline, Orile-Agege, and Agbotikuyo, among others. Shirtless, his hair twisted into dreadlocks, he swaggered down alleys with a sharpened fork, a battle axe, and sometimes, a gun. He was a terror to commuters, traders, even children his own age.

    But even in this cutthroat existence, there were rules. Otun’s attack on Mojirayo and the death of her child sent shockwaves through the gang. Some of his own, more empathetic than others, swore vengeance. But within weeks, the conflict died down. Blood, they said, had to be forgotten for the sake of unity. And so, Mojirayo’s grief was swallowed by the larger beast: gang loyalty.

    Otun’s fate was sealed. His hunger for violence led him deeper into the darkness of confraternity wars. In 2021, Otun relocated to Ifo, in Ogun State following repeated attempts to “drop” (execute) him by rival cult groups. In Ifo, he found it difficult to assert himself amid fiercer and presumably deadlier supremacy battles and turf wars between the Supreme Eiye Confraternity (SEC) and Black Axe Confraternity. The tussle was more intense within his Coker domicile. It was deadlier in Sango Ota, Arigbajo, Iyana Ilogbo, Onihale, Owode, Ijako, Sagamu, Abeokuta, Ijebu Ode, and other areas of Ogun State.

    Otun found it difficult to accept his reduction to a “weakling.” He was a General without an army. Thus he resorted to petty crime, occasionally loaning himself, as an “external hitman” to cult groups seeking an unknown face to carry out hits on rivals. He became an outsider, drifting between Lagos and Ogun, offering his services to the highest bidder.

    But no one stays invincible forever. In 2022, at just 17, Otun’s journey ended in Ilaro, Ogun State, as he was cornered by a hit squad that trailed him, all the way from Festac Town, Lagos, to a hotel en route to Ibeshe. He was beheaded, and his carcass, mutilated. His hands and feet were severed, a macabre tradition meant to prevent his spirit from seeking revenge, if summoned by his group. Otun was hastily buried in a shallow grave. His friends, who scampered away in the heat of his execution, returned in a rickety cab, to collect his remains. The 17-year-old boy whose  channelled soccer glory on the PlayStation console as his favourite pastime, now rests in an unmarked grave, forgotten by all.

    Zinachukwu Ugwu: Four-year-old murdered in bed  

    A world away, in Delta State, four-year-old Zinachukwu Ugwu lay tucked in bed,her dreams untainted by the horrors that lurked outside. But the quiet would not last. Nobody could tell why Nweke Chukwuemeka, a self-confessed member of the Vikings Confraternity, intruded Ugwu’s room. Nobody knows if his feud was with someone else but for some inexplicable reason, he chose Ugwu, just as Otun had chosen Olaide.

    The strike was brutal and swift as Chukwuemeka slit the little girl’s throat. From a medical perspective, slitting the throat of a four-year-old leads to immediate and catastrophic damage as the sharp blade severs the windpipe, blood vessels, and most likely the carotid artery or jugular vein, major conduits for blood between the heart and brain. This results in massive blood loss, overwhelming her fragile body almost instantly.

    “The sensation of having her airway obstructed would have caused her to instinctively gasp, yet the wound would make it impossible for her to draw breath,” said Clinical Pathologist Disu.

    The medical realities of Ugwu’s death indicates a merciless end to a life so young, an act of unimaginable cruelty that robbed the four-year-old of a future she couldn’t live to see. While confessing to his crime, Chukwuemeka revealed that he killed the four-year-old under the influence of Indian hemp, methamphetamine, locally known as “Mkpuru-mmiri,” and an alcoholic drink that he earlier consumed.

    No thanks to him, Ugwu, once full of life, became just another casualty in a war that cared nothing for age, innocence, or the future. Her killer, though older and more seasoned in the art of violence, was a product of the same machine that had forged Otun. A system where children are fed nursed on brutality till they emerge as guerilla killers, driven by a twisted sense of allegiance to a violent confraternity.

    The rise of the confraternity wars

    From Lagos to Ogun, Edo to Kwara, Plateau to Taraba, Benue to Delta, the streets pulse with bloodcurdling cries of rival confraternities: the Buccaneers, Supreme Eiye Confraternity, Black Axe, The Jurists, Maphites, Awawa, One Million Boys to mention a few.

    What began in the universities as a misguided attempt at brotherhood has spilled into the neighbourhoods, claiming children as its most tragic recruits.

    In Lagos, for instance, residents have suffered the proliferation of fearful gangs and cult groups, since the Kainkain gang emerged in Isale Eko, notable for serial crimes including rape, mobile phone theft, pick-pocketing and armed robbery. The leader of the group, ‘Surutu,’ allegedly relocated from the neighbourhood after he was shot.

    And residents of Ajegunle will not forget in a hurry, their ordeal in the hands of One Million Boys (OMB), a gang of hoodlums that terrorised the area. At inception, precisely 20 boys in Ajegunle united to form the group, with the original intent to fight perceived injustices synonymous with the township. But as the group grew in strength, it was hijacked by criminal elements and turned into terror gang responsible for serial robbery and rape of defenseless Lagosians.

    Before they invaded any community or street, the OMB usually wrote a letter to inform the residents, sending it through a courier, usually a minor, to the head of that street or the landlord association. And when they visit, they rob from one house to the other, raping young girls and even married women.

    Asides from the Kainkain Gang and One Million Boys, several other gangs have since taken over the streets of southern Nigeria to be precise. Many teenagers are recruited into confraternities that were hitherto restrained to the tertiary institutions.

    Mind games and turf wars spill to social platforms

    A curious dimension to the crisis is the cult groups’ newfound penchant for posting pictures of rival cult members executed by them on social media. In 2021, Victor Nzubechukwu, a self-confessed member of the Supreme Vikings Confraternity connived with other members of his group to decapitate one Ugochukwu Igwilo, a member of rival Black Axe Confraternity. Igwilo was beheaded with the murder filmed and circulated on the social media.

    Nzubechukwu, a student of the Nigeria Maritime Academy, Oron, Cross River State, revealed how they lured Igwilo to a place where they shot and beheaded him. They cut off the victim’s legs, arms and private part and took them to a native doctor in Ahia Afor village, in Abia State, to prepare some charms meant to give them protection from the police and rival cults, he said.

    Four months ago, an alleged member of SEC was killed and beheaded during a cult clash with rival Black Axe in the Ijoko area of Ogun State. Seun, a fuel attendant at a filling station in Ijoko, was reportedly killed in a reprisal attack. His assailants hung his head on the Ijoko bridge and made away with his body. Seun was killed to avenge SEC’s killing of a Black Axe leader, Adisa. The latter’s hand was chopped off and a picture of it was subsequently posted on social media.

    Popular social platform, Tiktok, has become the go-to platform for several cult groups who use it to showcase their activities including their recent killings of rival cult members, initiation parties, mourning of slain members, and issuance of threat to rival confraternities – more worrisome is their penchant for interviewing members of rival cult groups before murdering them in cold blood.

    The consequences of such brazen display of violence and bestiality are better imagined. Fresh teen gangs have sprung through cracks in the society’s moral and cultural foundations and the old gangs have morphed into more organised cults, reminiscent of deadly campus confraternities.

    There are the Fadeyi Boys, Ereko Boys, Akala Boys, Ijesha Boys, Awala Boys, Shitta Boys, Nokia Boys, No Salary Boys, One Hour Boys, Oshodi Boys, No Mercy Boys, Aguda Boys, Night Cadet, Black Scorpion, Akamo Boys, Omo Kasari Confraternity, Para Gang Confraternity (mainly teenage girls), Japa Boys and the Awawa Boys.

    The Awawa Boys, which Otun’s six-man gang belonged to, started innocently as a group of minors begging people for money but eventually metamorphosed into a gang of fearsome teenage cultists and armed robbers terrorising Agege, Iyana-Ipaja, Sakamori, Ibari, Ikorodu, Ashade, Dopemu, Ogba, Ifako-Ijaiye, Abule-Egba, Ifako-Ijaye, Agege, Isale Oja, Ibari, Akerele, Papa Ogba Ashade and Aluminium Village.

    Though predominantly a cult of boys, females including prepubescent girls are recruited into the gang. An Awawa Boy can be identified by a drippy teardrop tattoo beside the left eye. They move in pretty large numbers and pride themselves in their numbers. Often times they operate as a flash mob of close between 100 and 150 but for smaller missions, they move in squads of between 20 and 50 boys and girls. Sometimes, they operate in rag tag squads of four, five, seven, 10 to 15 boys bearing deadly arms including baseball bats, clubs, meat cleavers, daggers, crude metal bars, ‘two by two’ (wooden planks with nails) and forks. Members of the cult are drug dependent. They binge on psychotropic substances including omi gota (gutter juice), colorado, pamilerin, codeine, cannabis, rohypnol and tramadol.

    Cult of celebrity

    Amid the melee of the ongoing cult wars, even celebrity has become a weapon. It is hardly surprising to see teenagers bicker, on and off social media, over which musician or celebrity is affiliated with their favourite cult group. Skit makers, who pass themselves off as content creators, churn out videos labeling various entertainers as cult members.

    At a time when association with the right gang gives you clout, many celebrities feed into the delusion, flaunting their cult ties on social media, thus endorsing the bloody turf wars fought by rival cults.

    In the wake of the controversy surrounding Ilerioluwa Aloba aka Mohbad’s death, a video surfaced showing the late singer being harassed by his estranged friends, prompting writer and activist, Solomon Buchi to state that, “The Nigerian music industry is a cesspool of cultism, gangsterism, diabolical politics, and abysmal moral volume. I listened to very few of his songs and noticed the pain in his voice, the sonorous and sober tone, and his poignant lyrics that often expressed the difficulty of life. Most popular Nigerian musicians are cultists. Through their music videos, dressing, lingo, and fraternal phrases, they are easy to identify. And what do they do? Of course, they don’t kill mosquitoes or keep peace-it’s a cycle of chaos.”

    Corroborating him, Gabriel Oche Amanyi aka Terry G, acknowledged that, “Cultism has entered the Nigerian music industry. Cultism used to be in the universities. But it has entered into the music industry now. If we can remove it from the music industry, we would be one family again,” he said.

    Psychology of a Teen Cultist

    The cults that terrorise the streets of Delta, Imo, Rivers, Edo and Lagos weren’t born out of malice but out of necessity. For instance, Femi Jonah, a hit man for the No Salary Boys disclosed that he was lured into cultism to enjoy a sense of belonging among his childhood friends and survive the streets. He revealed his heartfelt wish to become a private bodyguard to “any chairman in power.”

    To this end, he has started making necessary connections to ensure his crossover into a more special class of hooligans, thus affirming that politicians and other powerful figures exploit them as mercenaries in the pursuit of power.

    Lacking education, job opportunities, or even a stable family structure, several youngsters like Jonah, turn to the streets for identity and survival.

    For many cultists, the gang becomes a family, providing a sense of belonging and a network of support in a world that otherwise offers none. Cultism thrives on these bonds, drawing in the lost and the lonely. But within these groups, the veneer of brotherhood quickly fades, revealing the harsh reality of street life: there are no true friends, only rivals and potential enemies. Life within the gang is a constant struggle for dominance, for survival, and for control.

    In the slums, where survival is a daily struggle, children mature into “damaged youth,” as social psychologist Omotoke Iyunade puts it. Their socialisation is marked by violence, and their lives become a reflection of the chaos that surrounds them.

    According to Iyunade, the cultist mindset is a twisted product of their environment. These boys and girls, deprived of love and care, adopt a hostile attitude toward society. They become hardened by a life of violence, crime, and exploitation, unable to see beyond the brutality of the streets. In a society that offers them no empathy, they, in turn, have none to offer. They become tools of violence—first victims, then perpetrators. The absence of a stable family structure, the lack of education, and the unrelenting pressure of living in the slums push them into the welcoming arms of cultism, where they are offered a false sense of identity, she argued, adding that many of them take to hard drugs in search of escape. They would take anything to dull the pangs of reality.

    While confessing to his crime, Chukwuemeka revealed that he killed four-year-old Ugwu under the influence of Indian hemp, methamphetamine, locally known as “Mkpuru-mmiri,” and an alcoholic drink that he earlier consumed. While it is tempting to probe the forces that mauled him through his troubled teens into the child murderer that he has become, there is no justification for his action.

    Light arms fuel heavy crimes

    Findings revealed that a lot of the cult wars are furnished by illicit gun factories within and outside Lagos. In September 2023, the Lagos police raided the factory of a local blacksmith in Ibeju-Lekki. The blacksmith fabricated firearms for onward sales to criminals around Idata Village of Ibeju-Lekki, until the police busted his factory and arrested one Musiliu Gbenga, 21, and Owolabi Azeez, 22.

    The following items were recovered from the factory: three single-barrel locally-made pistols, one double-barrel locally-made gun, one single-barrel locally-made gun, two single-barrel locally-made long guns, 10 expended cartridges, 12 long pipes, two drilling machines, one gas cylinder, one vehicle and other fabricated tools, according to the Lagos Police Public Relations Officer (PPRO) SP Benjamin Hundenyin.

    The increase in illicit gun factories and the proliferation of small arms have also provided these cults with the means to wage their wars. These weapons become tools in the hands of boys barely out of childhood, leaving a trail of death and destruction in their wake.

    Worried by the escalation in cult killings, the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), has called on the police and other security agencies to intensify their efforts in combating cultism, and ending the incessant cult killings in the country.

    The student body expressed worry over the recent surge in cult-related violence that has plagued the country, lamenting that these senseless killings had claimed the lives of many promising young Nigerians, instilled fear among residents, and disrupted the peaceful atmosphere essential for the socio-economic growth of the country.

    Stemming the menace

    To stem the menace, Dr. Ikuomola, suggested that the government should improve the quality of nation’s education system through investments in free technical education that will have meaningful impact on the youth and the quest for self-reliance and development. In the long run, he said, this will influence and increase youths employment outcomes. He also suggested that “policies should be put in place at all levels for young men and women to have the same opportunities in job prospecting. Emphasis should also be placed on vulnerable groups, especially children and youths; to avoid child labour and exploitation, street life and the breeding of street urchins in cities.”

    While suggestions like Ikuomola’s may in part be the palliative to the scourge of area boys in the state, further priority strategies may have to be tailored to the reorientation of the family structure, parenting and employment generation, particularly in Lagos, according Morenike Abass, a school proprietor and educational psychologist.

    End of Childhood

    Going by the spate of killings, there is no gainsaying that childhood is scarcely endowed with innocence, for the random teen in particular. For many of them, an average day manifests as a race against death. For every Otun, there is another child waiting to be drawn in, and consumed by the violence that now defines life in Lagos, Ogun, Edo, and beyond.

    In 2014, the Ondo State Police Command arrested four secondary school pupils, Lawal Lateef (18); Felix Victor (17); Nsoani Stephen (18); and Festus Francis (18) for being involved in cultism. They were reported to be pupils of St. Francis High School in Akure, a school reputed for violence.

    In late 2016, the police in Delta State arrested 28 teenage cult members belonging to a group known as the ‘Future Trigger Boys.’ The police said the suspected cultists, aged between 13 and 16 years, were rounded up during school hours following intelligence reports from members of the public.

    In September 2017, the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), Ikeja, arraigned 12 pupils of Oduduwa Junior Secondary School, in Lagos before an Ikeja chief magistrate court, for belonging to a cult. The pupils were arraigned on a three-count charge of conspiracy and membership of Gangsters Confraternity.

    On April 16, 2021, police operatives attached to the Alakuko Division of the Lagos State Police Command, arrested four suspected cultists: Tosin,18, Sunday, 15, Olayinka, 14, and Sanni Babatunde, 15, who came from Ogun State to launch a reprisal attack on rival cult members at the Junior Secondary Schools, Akinyele, Alakuko, Lagos State.

    More worrisome is Awawa’s incursion into primary schools. Just recently, 12 pupils of the Egan Community School, between the ages of 6 and 16, were reportedly initiated into Awawa, in Alimoso area of Lagos. But for a Guidance and Counselling teacher at the school, their initiation would have taken place undetected.

    The pupils were allegedly recruited by a 16-year-old girl, who attends a sister school, Egan Senior Grammar in Igando, Lagos and were undergoing training in order to become future hit-men of the cult.

    The teacher was said to have noticed a particular incision on the lower jaws of some of the students and queried them about it; one of the children confessed that any school pupil or student seen with the mark was a member of the Awawa cult group. This is how fragile the situation is.

    Perhaps if parents recounted Otun’s story to haunt their children, fear would keep them safe. “If the poor boy (Otun) had someone to advise him, maybe he wouldn’t end up so badly,” stated Gbotie Ajibike, a police officer and ex-target of Otun and his crew.

    At his death, there was no parent to mourn him. Many fresh recruits into Awawa would be scared straight perhaps to know the actual story of the group’s fugitive hitman. They’d find that beneath the embellished narrative of his daring, he was simply a misguided boy, undeserving of the cheap idolatry and vigil they hold for him in their hearts.

    The new child recruits won’t see Otun’s decapitated and bloodied frame in its loose sprawl, jerking in its final death spasms in the dust, finally harmless.

    Yet, the streets litter with the ghosts of those who once had dreams and wanted more, but who found themselves trapped in a never-ending melee.

    For the fallen, the funerals come swiftly, one after another, as the cycle of bloodletting persists. For those who remain, like the bereaved parents of Olaide and Zinachukwu Ugwu, their pain is a permanent reminder that in this war, there are no winners. Only the dead.

  • Twists, turns in enduring battle for soul of Rivers

    Twists, turns in enduring battle for soul of Rivers

    Experts count costs of Wike/Fubara clash

    The collapse of the presidential peace deal in Rivers State has cast confusion, desperation and uncertainties on the ongoing political crisis ravaging the oil-rich state. President Bola Tinubu’s fatherly intervention on December 19, 2023 was designed to halt the crisis, which erupted among members of the same political family in October the same year, spreading tension and foreboding across the state.

    The agreement was crafted in a tone designed to reboot the state into a factory setting by immediately dumping all issues that generated the unexpected and sudden hostilities into the dustbin of history. But the actions and inactions of the parties to the crisis drove a death knell into the pact, forcing the deal between the camps of the state governor, Sir Siminialayi Fubara, and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Chief Nyesom Wike, to collapse irretrievably.

    By all indications, the collapse of the agreement closed the chapter of seeking a political resolution to the crisis and opened the judicial phase of the impasse, such that all eyes are now on the judiciary to resolve the multiple suits brought before it by the parties and decide the political fate of the state.

    Most of the legal suits instituted by the camp of the governor targeted the two major political structures in the state – the elected local government chairmen and the members of the House of Assembly. The two camps are locked in a legal battle for the control of these two major political assets to guarantee their political survival. While the camp of Wike is fighting to retain control, that of Fubara is battling to dislodge all loyalists of the minister from the structures.

    To take full control of the local government areas, the governor wielded his power and refused to conduct the local government elections before the expiration of the tenures of local government chairmen and councilors, who are majorly loyal supporters of the FCT Minister. The House of Assembly controlled by Speaker Martins Amaewhule and loyal to Wike predicted the governor’s body language and amended the state’s local government law extending the tenures of the elected councils’ officials by six months.

    The succession conflict tore the state apart and created tension ahead of the expiration of the tenures of the elected local government officials on June 17. Threats and counter threats were issued from the two camps.

    On May 21, the chairmen under the auspices of the Association of Local Government of Nigeria (ALGON), led by their Chairman, Allwell Ihunda, met in Port Harcourt and insisted they would not vacate their offices in June.

    The Legal Adviser of ALGON and Chairman of Andoni Local Government Area, Dr. Iraatus Awoto, said their decision was hinged on the new provision of the state’s Local Government Amendment Law passed without the assent of the state Governor, Sir Siminialayi Fubara, by the Speaker Martins Amaewhule-led lawmakers.

    Awoto said: “Yes, we got elected in 2021 and our tenure is to expire in June. But by now LG elections ought to have been concluded and the winners awaiting swearing in.

    “The Assembly has seen that no action has been taken in respect of conducting an election and in their wisdom knows there shouldn’t be any vacuum, and we have to maintain democratically elected chairmen as the local government law until elections are done, this chairmen will stay in office for another six months in the interim”.

    Despite the judgment of the state High Court which seemed to have weakened their resolve to remain in office, the chairmen were adamant, citing Justice Omotosho’s judgment. The High Court, declared the new amendment unconstitutional, null and void and of no effect.

    The court judgment also declared the six-month tenure elongation provided for in the new amendment as invalid. The judgment was based on a suit filed by the chairmen of Bonny and Opobo/Nkoro local government areas seeking nullification of the new law.

    In the judgment, Justice Diaketima Kio held that the Amaewhule-led House of Assembly overreached itself and that its actions were contrary to the provisions of the amended Nigerian Constitution.

    But the chairmen, especially the Executive Chairman of Ikwerre Local Government Area, Samuel Nwanosike, insisted that they would remain in their offices on June 17. Amaewhule also warned that they would not accept any form of caretaker committees to run the affairs of the state, declaring such arrangement an aberration.

    The state government, however, insisted that the chairmen must vacate their offices on June 17. Fubara told the occupants that their days were numbered and that they should be prepared to leave after June 17. Fubara’s loyalists also vowed to resist any attempt by the elected local government officials to extend their tenures beyond June 17.

    The supporters under the auspices of the Supreme Council for Sim Worldwide (SCSW) rejected the move to extend the tenures of the LG chairmen. The co-chairman of the group, Amb. Oji Ngofa, asked Fubara to send names of caretaker committee chairmen for local government areas to the Victor Oko-Jumbo-led lawmakers for screening and confirmation.

    Ngofa said: “The tenure of local government councils ends on June 17, 2024. The Supreme Council for SIM Worldwide denounces the local council chairmen that disrespect the office and person of Governor Siminalayi Fubara.”

    Immediately their tenure expired on June 17, pro-Fubara youths invaded most of the councils and took over their secretariats. Some local government chairmen, who tried to enter their offices on that day were chased away. Others mobilised their supporters and still reported to their offices amid the tension. There was hullabaloo, violence and confusion in the state, culminating in the death of a policeman and a member of a vigilant group.

    The governor through the Oko-Jumbo led lawmakers inaugurated caretaker committees and caretaker chairmen and ordered them to run the affairs of the 23 local government areas. But the chairmen and their supporters vowed to stop the caretaker committee chairmen from taking over the secretariats.

    Sensing looming violent clashes, the police immediately ordered their operatives to take over the local government secretariats to avert bloodshed. The police were said to have relied on the Court of Appeal’s order that the parties should maintain the status quo, to occupy the secretariats. But the governor asked the caretaker committee chairmen to run the affairs of their councils outside the secretariats.

    The action of the police agitated workers’ unions, who organised protests against the occupation but later changed their minds. But the local government chairmen and their loyalists marched to the councils’ secretariats to declare their support for the actions taken by the police to avert danger in the state.

    The recent judgment of the Supreme Court on local government autonomy touched on many issues hampering the councils across the country, including outlawing the use of caretaker committees to run local government areas. The judgment gave the ousted chairmen in Rivers the impetus to continue their fight for tenure elongation. But it has not discouraged the ongoing operations of caretaker committee chairmen in the state with many analysts in the camp of Fubara insisting that the judgment was solely on the financial autonomy of local government councils.

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    The state governor has already scheduled October 5 to conduct the local government elections. But the electoral process is already encumbered by litigations, though the Rivers Independent Electoral Commission (RISIEC) has vowed to continue with the exercise.

    Therefore, who controls the local government structures between Fubara and Wike will be determined by the outcome of all ongoing legal tussles on Rivers councils including the tenure elongation being contacted by the ousted chairmen and the results of the forthcoming local government elections.

    House of Assembly Structure

    In fact, the death of the presidential peace deal ignited a fresh war on the House of Assembly. Prior to the peace deal, a former pro-Fubara Speaker, Edison Ehie, had declared the seats of Amaewhule and 25 others vacant following their purported defection from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC). But in the spirits of the presidential intervention, Fubara convinced Ehie to resign his membership of the Assembly. He later made him his Chief of Staff.

    At the resumption of hostility between the governor and the Amaewhule-led House of Assembly after the collapse of the deal, Victor Oko-Jumbo became the second pro-Fubara Speaker to replace Ehie. Oko-Jumbo is leading other three lawmakers who formed the pro-Fubara House of Assembly to tackle Amaewhule and 27 others.

    Oko-Jumbo immediately filed a suit at the state High Court and secured an order barring Amaewhule and 25 others from parading themselves as speaker and members of the state House of Assembly.

    The Interlocutory Injunction of the High Court sitting in Port Harcourt recognised Victor Oko-Jumbo as the speaker. Justice Charles Wali of the State High court ordered Amaewhule and 24 others to stop sitting as speaker and lawmakers of the state House of Assembly.

    The order became a major setback to the Wike camp. No matter how they described it as unimaginable, they were compelled to obey the directive. Amaewhule and lawmakers loyal to him stopped sitting. The governor leveraged on the order to enroll most of his decisions. While his enemy camp was in pains struggling to vacate it, Fubara ran government business relying on Oko-Jumbo-led lawmakers.

    The governor through Oko-Jumbo screened and confirmed chairmen and members of the caretaker committees of local government areas. He also through his recognised speaker inaugurated commissioners.

    But Martins Chike Amaewhule and 24 other lawmakers approached.the Court of Appeal, praying it to vacate the order to allow them return to their functions as the state lawmakers. The Court of Appeal in Port Harcourt, while refusing to stay execution of the order, decided to hear the matter and give judgment.

    The three-member Appeal panel comprising Justice Jimi Olukayode Bada, Justice Hamma Akawu and Justice Balkisu Bello Aliyu, however, ordered the parties involved in the crisis to maintain the status quo.

    On July 4, the Appeal Court delivered its judgment. It set aside the interlocutory injunction barring Amaewhule and others from parading themselves as the speaker and members of the state House of Assembly and asked the parties to maintain the status quo. The appeal court held that the court of first instance lacked the jurisdiction to entertain the case and issue the order.

    The camp of Wike celebrated it as victory for democracy. However, the judgment was interpreted differently by the camp of Fubara. The governor’s camp believed that the court only ruled on the jurisdiction of the state High Court and not on the merit of the matter. Therefore, Amaewhule and the affected lawmakers resumed their sitting at the Auditorium of the legislative quarters located off Aba Road, but the governor continued to conduct the government business with the Oko-Jumbo-led lawmakers sitting at the Admin Block of the Government House.

    The governor and his camp are not backing down on the Crux of the matter. They are at the Federal High Court contesting the legal statuses of Amaewhule and others as speaker and members of the state House of Assembly.

    “The court will have to decide whether Amaewhule and the lawmakers actually defected to the APC before delving into the legality of the declaration of their seats vacant. If the plaintiffs failed to establish their defections in the eyes of the law, it would render the declaration of their seats vacant defective and would become a significant blow on Fubara and his camp as it may lead to the official impeachment of the governor.

    If otherwise proven, Amaewhule and other lawmakers will vacate their seats and pave the way for the Independence National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct elections to fill their seats.

    Amaewhule-led lawmakers deliberated on the actions of Fubara in their recent sitting and concluded they were in breach of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as altered, extant laws and judgments of competent courts of law.

    The lawmakers told Fubara that he had yet to present the 2024 Appropriation Bill of the state to the duly constituted Rivers State House of Assembly in line with the provisions of Section 121 of the Constitution and in compliance with the judgment of Justice Omotosho of the Federal High Court. They resolved to give the governor seven days from the date of the resolution to present the appropriation bill to them.

    The lawmakers further drew the attention of Fubara to his alleged breach of Section 192(2) of the Constitution. First they said the governor inaugurated purported members of the State Executive Council as commissioners. They accused Fubara of breaching Section 7 (1) of the Constitution and the Rivers State Local Government (Amendment) Law, 2023 by inaugurating certain unelected individuals to manage the affairs of the 23 local government councils in the state.

    According to them, the actions of the governor are in flagrant disobedience to the Constitution and judgment of Justice Omotosho of the Federal High Court. Amaewhule particular decried a situation where the “governor in total disregard to the Constitution and judgments of courts” transacted legislative business with three suspended members of the Assembly parading themselves as House of Assembly of the state.

    He said that the purported screening and confirmation of commissioner-nominees, caretaker committees and other approvals  by the “three impostors” had been declared null and void by the recent Court of Appeal Judgment, adding that the governor and his co-travellers were in contempt of the orders of the court.

    He called on Fubara to do the needful without further delay, insisting that the constitutional breaches constituted gross misconduct and abuse of office.

    But Fubara told Speaker Martins Amaewhule and 24 other lawmakers that their seats at the state House of Assembly were declared vacant since December 13 and had remained so. The governor rubbished the seven-day ultimatum the Amaewhule-led lawmakers issued to him to re-present the 2024 Appropriation Bill, saying his administration was already preparing the 2025 Budget.

    The governor said the lawmakers were gone for good and would eventually return home for voluntarily choosing to defect from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform on which they won their elections, to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    The governor dismissed their claims as noise-making from delusional folks. Describing the 25 lawmakers as former, he asked them to wake up from their slumber to see the ship of governance in the state sailing smoothly. Fubara also said his administration had started preparing details of the 2025 Appropriation Bill with priority placed on education, healthcare and agriculture.

    He said: “Let me assure you that agriculture is an area that we have promised the very special and peace-loving people of Rivers State that our 2025 budget, which we have already started preparing, will address. Don’t bother about those people that are delusional. They think we are still sleeping. Let me tell you people so that they can hear anywhere they are.

    “I wanted to help them sincerely because I know them. And I have said it before, these are people that I have helped. I paid their children’s school fees. I paid their house rents. So, I wanted to help them.

    “We all knew what happened when they crossed (defected), and how did they cross? Because of our God, for them to make that mistake, they crossed! They are gone, and they are gone. Now, let me tell you: when I wanted to help them, I accepted to help them because we are all one. We disagree to agree as it is said.

    “But they thought they are smart. What is holding them is the declaration of their seats vacant that was done on December 13, 2023. That is what is holding them. We are not doing any budget to nullify that decision. It is what will send them to their villages.

    “For me, as I am talking to you, I have started preparing my budget for 2025, which I am going to present very soon. And, in that budget, my key areas will be education, healthcare and agriculture.”

    At the expiration of the seven-day ultimatum, the Amaewhule-led lawmakers reconvened for another plenary and barred the governor from further spending money from the state’s Consolidated Revenue Fund. They also wrote to financial institutions to stop transacting businesses with the state government. But the Oko-Jumbo-led lawmakers held a counter sitting and asked the governor to go ahead and spend money.

    But Fubara is not joking with the threats of the Amaewhule-led lawmakers. He moved immediately to avert any plot by the lawmakers to initiate his impeachment.  He recently secured a fresh court order restraining the Chief Judge of Rivers State and the Clerk, Rivers State House of Assembly from having any dealing with the 27 lawmakers led by Martins Amaewhule.

    The ex-parte order for interim injunction was issued by the High Court of Rivers State presided over by Justice D. Jumbo Stephens. It originated from Suit No PHC/2177/CS/2024 filed by the Attorney-General of Rivers State and the state Governor, Sir Siminialayi Fubara.

    In fact, all eyes are on the judiciary to decide the fate of the crisis rocking Rivers State. But no matter how the decision goes, there must be casualties that will change the political trajectory of the state. It is believed that the final pronouncement of the court will make one camp rejoice and the other to cry blue murder.

    Certain developments have, however, caused concerns in the state especially with the recent attack on the state Secretariat of the All Peoples Party (APP) by hoodlums, who detonated explosives suspected to be dynamites in the facility. The entrance of the APP into the crisis is fueling suspicion about the political destination of Fubara.

    The PDP is firmly under the control of Wike. A faction of the APC led by Tony Okocha is also under his control. The governor is garnering grassroots support through his caretaker committee chairmen, who are undertaking various empowerment programmes to bring Fubara’s government closer to the people

    There are indications that the governor, who earlier thundered that the PDP had failed the state, is shopping for another party. Is the governor and his emerging teeming supporters on their way to the APP? Time will tell.

    But with the reinstatement of the Emeka Beke’s leadership of the APC in the state by the court and the resolve of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the APC to stick with Okocha, there are more developments ahead in the crisis rocking Rivers.

    Counting the cost of the crisis

    Undoubtedly, the crisis in Rivers has impacted negatively on the development, the economy and socio-political activities of the state. It has thrown the once-peaceful Rivers into a theatre of political warfare with looming violent clashes between the rival camps.

    Tension has become a constant feature of Rivers. On three different occasions, bombs were set off at various political infrastructures of the state. While two of the explosions significantly damaged institutions and symbols of democracy, one of them almost killed the bomber.

    The first explosives suspected to be dynamites went off in October 5th at the hallowed chambers of the Rivers State House of Assembly. The explosion announced the beginning of the impasse. It destroyed a large section of the chambers and burnt historical democratic memoirs, relics and documents. The chamber was later declared unfit for the lawmakers to conduct the business of the House and was later bulldozed by the state government.

    Indeed, the bulldozing of the Rivers State Assembly complex widened the dispute and was considered a waste of the state’s resources. The government later approved N19.6bn to construct the legislative chambers, constraining the state to bear the cost of the political disputes.

    The second explosion occurred along the Port Harcourt -Aba Expressway on June 25th during a protest by the anti-Fubara faction. The incident almost created a bad blood between the police and the state government, but the police insisted on investigating the matter to know the motive behind it. Through the assistance of some officials of the state government, the bomber, who sustained serious bodily injuries, was arrested while he was receiving medical treatments in a health facility owned by the government.

    The police later identified the suspect as a 40-year-old Preye Josiah aka Metusah, who hails from Kabiama community of Sagbama Local Government Area. The police said the suspect had been on the wanted list of the police for participating in some high-profile bank robberies led by one Daniel Gogo alias Full Payment between 2012 and 2016, where three AK-47 rifles and other weapons were recovered in Bayelsa.

    The revelations of the police have shown that the crisis brought out many criminal elements previously in hiding. Such elements are on the prowl to take advantage of political camps’ rallies, processions and protests to unleash their angst on the people.

    While security agencies were investigating Josiah’s alleged criminal records, another explosive was set off at the All Peoples Party (APP) Secretariat located in Tombia Extension GRA Phase 2, Port Harcourt on August 12th. The dynamites damaged a section of the party’s secretariat and caused fresh tension in the state.

    The rising speculations that Fubara, and his teeming supporters were plotting to defect to the Action Peoples Party (APP) was said to be the reason behind the attack of the party’s Secretariat on Monday morning, sources said.

    Sources said the suspicion became widespread after the secretariat recently underwent a facelift.

    “After the renovation, the speculation became widespread that the governor and his supporters are seeking refuge in APP because the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been hijacked by the former Governor, Nyesom Wike, and his loyalists.

    “Some persons are not happy that the governor has divided the political family that brought him to power and is planning to move them to another party. This is the reason for the bombing”, a source, who spoke in confidence said.

    Though Fubara had not publicly announced any plan to dump the PDP, the governor had earlier berated the PDP accusing it of failing the state. But during the week, Fubara said his hope on PDP had been reinvigorated with the visit of the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT) members led by a former Senate President, Adulphus Wabara.

    Wabara and his BoT team were in the state to assess the political crisis in the state and seek permanent solutions to it. Fubara during his interaction with the BoT members said he once doubted his membership of the PDP, but that with the BoT’s assurances, members of his camp would remain authentic members of the PDP in the state

    Without mincing words, the PDP has been polarized in the state. Even the crisis has divided members of the APC in the state. The state’s APC faction led by Emeka Beke, whose state chairmanship was recently reinstated, is working with the Fubara’s PDP’s camp. However, the APC faction led by Tony Okocha is working with the PDP’s camp loyal to Wike.

    Therefore, in Rivers, politicians are either hobnobbing with Fubara in his Simplified family or working with Wike in his PDP’s camp. But Wike’s men and foot soldiers are maintaining firm grip of the PDP structures in the state.

    Experts believe that the crisis has affected the developmental trajectory of the state. It has altered the compass of development set by the PDP during the rare smooth transition between Wike and Fubara. Most of the plans were dropped as the governor seemed to have gone back to the drawing board to chart a new blueprint for his administration.

    Besides, the crisis has further diminished the value the state had hoped to attract from the federal government following the earlier unique relationship the former governor and Fubara established with President Tinubu.