Category: Insight

  • ‘I will follow this thrill to my grave’

    ‘I will follow this thrill to my grave’

    Life becomes breathtaking for once and only once everyday, to Aliyu Salisu. Just before dusk, while he is perched on the rail tracks of Galadima, in the bowels of Maiduguri, Borno State. Out there, in the sweltering heat, he tastes the unprecedented cool of ‘Ice.’  He sees for the umpteenth time, the city’s limitless possibilities and his place amid the urban sprawl.

    In that space and at that hour, he sees what his relatives are unable to envision about him: Aliyu, the successful timber merchant; Aliyu, the billionaire transporter, Aliyu, the responsible son.

    In a rare encounter with him, the 28-year-old widower recounted with zest, why 4pm is his best hour of the day. In that hour, he whisked out his discoloured glass pipe and fired up his daily dose of methamphetamine (meth) aka Ice, a ‘dangerous’ synthetic drug. Aliyu sucked on his pipe with conquering immersion, all the thwarted longings of his life urgent on his puckered brow and dependent breath. His face was hard and calloused with craving, and his eyes, reddish, like burnt earth.

    As the “Ice” thawed, he lighted up an ample wrap of marijuana thus “stepping down” or chasing off the chills that succeeded his high at every deep drag. His mouth, incongruous at exhalation, became slightly distended like that of a whistling boy.

    The marijuana smoke was ingenuously haunting; it spread over him like a brassy blanket, and made the rest of him a soiled, grey background. Irredeemably high and past caring, miseries that lied within their grave of submissive sternness in his heart, spilled their troubled ghosts nonchalantly out of his mouth – all in a smoky spiral.

    “My wife is now a bush wife. She dumped me and followed(married) a Boko Haram insurgent,” lamented Salisu.

    His paternal uncle said he would “never amount to anything. He is wrong. I will make it. When I am rich, I will feed him and his three wives,” he drawled, blowing thick fumes of marijuana high into the evening air.

    Soon as his euphoria began to ebb, Salisu sprang abruptly from his seat muttering: “Why dem close this place sef?” his eyes scanning dejectedly what was left of Galadima’s redlight district.

    His smoking routine ended with a romp in a prostitute’s bed, in Galadima’s days of decadent glory. All that is history now. No thanks to Borno State government. The incumbent administration embarked on a demolition of illegal hotels and alcohol joints around Maiduguri, in response to intelligence that such outfits posed security threats, according to the State’s Attorney-General, Kaka-Shehu Lawan, who is also the Commissioner for Justice.

    So far, about 67 brothels, alcohol joints, and illegal hotels were destroyed last for violating extant state laws that banned their operations since 2018.

    Three major brothels were also shut down for promoting homosexual activity and using underage girls who were being drugged as commercial sex workers.

    Soon after The Nation reported goings-on in Galadima, the state government carried out a mass demolition of 47 illegal hotels, brothels and alcohol joints  where proprietors and patrons engaged in the sale and consumption of alcohol and illicit drugs. The exercise affected brothels at Galadima, Gambouru, Moduganari, Wulari, Hot Bite, Baga road, Mairi, London Ciki, Artillery and villages along Giwa Barracks that were hot spots for all forms of criminality and immoral acts.

    Salisu rose from his perch, bemoaning the stripping of Galadima among others of its much coveted pleasure zones. As he sauntered off along the tracks, signalling to his much younger smoking buddy and sidekick. The latter trudged closely behind, hauling a cart of cartons and used clothing along. Together they disappeared into the fog of the evening.

    More curious kinks abound on the streets, in the pubs and numerous drug dens scattered across the country. For instance, while Salisu and his friend seek their highs in marijuana and synthetic meth, Suleiman Tanko finds his thrill in madaran sukudai, a potion chemically prepared with formalin (formaldehyde gin).

    Perhaps because it tastes like wild love, making him dance to a beat no one could hear. From dawn through dusk, Tanko boogies in ecstasy to the psychoactive potion. Although it is used to preserve corpses by mortuary attendants, it incites Tanko’s apathy to “big and small trouble;” like his joblessness and tragic loss of his drunkard son, Yusufu, in a gang fight.

    Yusufu, 13, took to the bottle very early; like his father, he fell in love with madaran sukudai, continually downing it to get high. In the end, he got stabbed to death in a turf war, along the rail track where local gangs converge to smoke and drink at the Galadima slum.

    Yusuf was allegedly high on the psychoactive substance when he got in the fight but his father, Tanko, has no regrets. Even though he lost his son two years after the demise of his estranged wife and infant daughter in a bomb blast, Tanko isn’t one to wallow in “useless agony.”

    drug victims

    “Boko Haram’s bomb killed my wife and daughter in Baga. Criminals killed my son here in Maiduguri. This land (Borno) has robbed me of too much. I’m sad, but they won’t come back. I won’t trouble myself with trifles,” he said, gulping from his bottle of formalin.

    “Wata ya seyray kankantchi’ii garra,” he continued, meaning: “Does the moon trouble itself about the punishment of an ant?…Nobody cares about me. I won’t worry and die before my time,” he said, in the tenor of a man whose native “land” had gnawed his joy to feed grotesque lusts.

    Like Tanko, Abdullahi Usman is addicted to madaran sukudai. Sometimes, he binges on cannabis and codeine. In a private encounter with The Nation on Lagos Street in Maiduguri, he said: “I smoke weed and take these other things to think properly. When I am high, I see the future clearly. I get clever solutions to my problems.”

    Besides their alleged benefits, hard drugs give Usman courage to attempt at noon, things he wouldn’t dare at night, while he is sober. Once, under the influence of madaran sukudai, he tried to bed the pregnant wife of a commandant of a vigilance group, after he made a bet to woo and sleep with her in a local brothel.

    Although he won the bet and earned himself a dinner of noodles and a 75cl bottle of madaran sukudai, Usman got bound up and beaten to a pulp by lieutenants of the vigilance chief. That encounter left him with a limp and ugly scar across his temple.

    At the backdrop of Salisu, Tanko and Usman’s wild indulgences, youths in Borno engage in indiscriminate abuse of hard drugs, despite the state government’s outlawing of the sale and consumption of hard drugs, alcohol and other psychoactive substances.

    “An inordinate lust for hard drugs makes them predisposed to violence and unlawful acts,” argued an intelligence officer of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) in Borno. According to him, illicit drug use is a factor in provoking violent conflict and crime in the state.

    Few people will forget in a hurry the case of Musa Inuwa, who allegedly punched a 60-year-old man to death while he was high on drugs. Abdullahi Ibrahim, Borno NSCDC commandant, revealed that the suspect was arrested at Jidari Polo Bus Stop area of Maiduguri.

    The victim, who suffered grievous bodily harm leading to his death, was said to have asked the suspect where he could locate a chemist to buy drugs.

    “Unknown to him, Inuwa was intoxicated by illicit substance, and he told the old man that he was disturbing him. He subsequently punched the elderly man, who fell forward and hit his head on the concrete pavement,” said Ibrahim.

    The victim was rushed to Umaru Shehu Specialist Hospital where he was pronounced dead as a result of massive brain trauma.

    An excessive lust for hard drugs goads several youths in Borno and other parts of the country to the precipice of mental instability, according to health experts.

    A recent study financed by the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) and executed by International Alert, a consortium partner, revealed drug abuse at a worrisome magnitude in Borno, Kaduna, Kano, Plateau and Rivers States – meth and crack cocaine abuse are cited more frequently.

    Marijuana, and prescription medications like Tramadol, cough syrup containing codeine, and home-brewed chemical cocktails, like madaran sukudai, sold by street vendors fuel addiction across the states.

     

    Politicians as culprits

    Drug users interviewed by The Nation cited unemployment and emotional trauma as reasons for taking to drugs.

    “They think it will help manage their pain. But it doesn’t. It only aggravates it,” argued Stella Abari, a psychiatrist.

    Idris Muhammed, a medical volunteer and civil servant, accused politicians of complicity stating that: “They recruit them as thugs and provide them with guns, machetes and narcotics at election time. They feed them drugs to make them high and unfeeling so that they can help perpetrate acts of vandalism and chaos during elections.”

    But when the elections are over, “The politicians forget them, leaving them to their devices. The youth go back to being unemployed, and they become idle hands in the devil’s workshop. They loot, rape, engage in gang violence and use of drugs in pursuit of highs just for the fun of it, argued Grace Ikumapayi, a social worker.

    There is no gainsaying illicit drugs play a significant role in intoxicating youths to gang violence and terrorism. The Nation’s exclusive chats with captured Boko Haram insurgents revealed that members of the terrorist sect, especially suicide bombers, are plied with hard drugs to develop the courage to commit dastardly acts.

    There are reports that members of the Boko Haram sect have been caught  acting under the influence of hard drugs thus the urgent need to cut off their drug supply.

    To stem the scourge, the Borno State government recently partnered the National Drugs Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) to rid the state of all forms of drug abuse and addiction.

    The partnership, according to the State Governor, Babagana Umara Zulum, is to enable the agency discharge its responsibilities in a drug-free society.

    Zulum, who made the disclosure in Maiduguri, while inspecting 10, 522kg of seized cannabis along Dikwa Road, said: “We’re doing everything possible to rid the state of drug abuse and addiction and other societal vices among the teeming youths.”

     

    Teenagers, young adults hooked to hard drugs

    Outside the northeast, Nigeria grapples with the surge of drug dependent teens and young adults. The driving force behind the drug epidemic is not just the highly addictive nature of meth, cocaine, heroin among other hard drugs; many teenagers are drawn to the enticing lure of the highs; many more are enticed by the possibility of making a quick buck, as a dealer or retailer.

    The lure is hard to resist. With massive unemployment and lack of a social security bracket for impoverished youths, the drug trade manifests as both an escape and lucrative enterprise for the unemployed.

    The prevalence of drug-dependence among teenagers and young adults  has ignited worry among various societal segments in recent times. Between 2018 and 2019, nearly 15% of Nigeria’s adult population (around 14.3 million people) reported a “considerable level” of use of psychotropic drug substances, a rate much higher than the 2016 global average of 5.6% among adults.

    The survey was led by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Centre for Research and Information on Substance Abuse with technical support from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and funding from the European Union.

    It showed the highest levels of drug use were recorded among people aged between 25 to 39, with cannabis being the most widely used drug. Sedatives, heroin, cocaine, and the non-medical use of prescription opioids were also noted. The survey excluded the use of tobacco and alcohol.

     

    smoke

     

    How drug abuse expose underage girls, women to sex slavery, rape

    Health officials, law enforcers, and social workers alleged that drug abuse in the state exposes women and girls to sexual assaults and domestic violence.

    The Borno Command of the NSCDC disclosed that youths in Maiduguri hypnotise teenage girls with drugs and charms to rape them.

    Parents of rape victims in London Ciki, Jidari Polo and Gomari Coasting,  in Maiduguri reported attacks on their kids aged between 13 and 14. The latter confessed that some boys abducted them in a tricycle and raped them afterwards, using drugs and charms, according to the NSCDC.

    In Lagos, users pay dearly for chasing the cheap high (known as chasing the dragon) – some dealers too. Ask Biola Iyanda, 19, who got raped in her sister’s shop soon after consuming omi gota, a cocktail of cannabis, cocaine, berry juice.

    “My sister had gone home and left her bar in my care. She had these customers who often visited at night. Last Tuesday, they invited me to drink with them. The last thing I remembered was that they tried to grope me and I fell in the gutter in front of the shop. They raped me, right there in the gutter. I was rescued by members of a vigilance group, and they helped me get compensation from their parents. Each boy paid me N25, 000. I got N50, 000 as compensation and my sister banned them from her shop,” she said.

    No doubt, many users totally lose their wits after consuming the hard drug. At another drug den in Amoo, The Nation observed several teenagers struck in different states of inebriation far into the night. Many were hyperactive, continually raising a ruckus over minor incidents. They laughed hard, fought hard and partied hard.

     

    Chasing the ‘high’ into the grave

    Despite the perceived dangers of abusing drugs, Olamide Ishola, a roadside mechanic in Abule Oja, Lagos, argued that there is nothing anyone can tell him to prevent him from seeking thrills in adhesive glue, paint cans, herbal alcoholic beverages and cough syrup. “O ti ga ju! O da bi ki eyan ma ta iku laya, ki eyan ma ji orun wo laiku.Won ni o npa yan, e je ki o pami. E je ki nwapa, e je ki nku. Aye kan yi ni mo wa (It’s a great experience. It’s like kissing death. It’s peeping into heaven while still alive…They say it kills. Let me die. Let me be thrilled to my grave. I only got this life to live),” he said, inhaling from a bottle containing adhesive and diluted paint.

    Few months after The Nation’s initial report on teenagers’ growing dependence on narcotic brews like Colorado, Pamilerin and Gutter Juice, highlighting fears of an imminent narcotics epidemic, the psychoactive substances have become rampant in several parts of Lagos and neighbouring states.

    They gained prominence in the wake of hip hop artiste, Olamide’s track, Science Students. While the song got banned by regulatory authorities for glorifying drug use, and was widely condemned in conservative social circuits, it enjoyed airplay among the youth, teenagers in particular, who embraced it for its creative depiction and veneration of their addiction.

    It’s hard not to panic over the prevalence of narcotics that leaves devastating marks on its victims, including death.

    Kamsi, a 400 level optometry student of the Abia State University, Uturu, Abia State, jumped down from a three-storey building and died on the spot, on the evening of Saturday, June 26, 2021 evening.

    The deceased student reportedly took the hard drug known as Colorado and couldn’t “contain it”. His friends locked him inside the room and went in search of garri (cassava flakes) to help him regain consciousness. Unfortunately, he went through the balcony, thinking that he was on the ground floor, and plunged, head first, down their three-storey hostel. He died instantly.

    Kenneth, a drug user, died at a popular hotel in Ikorodu, after drinking a drug substance named Gutter Juice. He died shortly after being rushed to a hospital.

    The deceased reportedly ingested the substance, a mixture of codeine, tramadol, cannabis, and juice.

    Kenneth developed seizures shortly after consuming the drink, and he was rushed to the Ikorodu Hospital for treatment where he was pronounced dead.

    His experience brings to consciousness the alarming state of widespread drug use in Nigeria.

    The fears escalate at the backdrop of accessibility to the hard drug. It is evidently easy to make: an addict can cook up Colorado or Gutter Juice using ingredients bought from the local pharmacy and underworld drug den. The public sale of some of its active ingredients, codeine, tramadol, rohypnol has been banned yet they are available over the counter and in the backroom of local pharmacies, at outrageous prices.

    Dealers mix blackcurrant juice with a brew including tramadol, codeine, rohypnol, Indian Hemp, and cocaine. The result—a purple liquid with pungent smell—mimics the effect of injecting high-end cocaine at a fraction of the cost.

    On average, users spend N9,000 per day on cocaine. This amount is half of the national minimum wage per month. Methamphetamine users spend an average of N 4,000. Heroin is obtainable at a street price of N4, 000 but adulterated ‘rocks’ often flavoured with thinner, is available at a range between N3, 500 and N4, 000.

    However, one litre of premium psychoactive juice costs N3,000 while a 50cl bottle costs N1, 500. Adolescent users often pool resources and contribute to purchasing a bottle, which they share using disposable cups at the several liquor stores across Agege, Agbado, Yaba, Ijora-Badia, Ajegunle, Fadeyi, Akala, Ajah, Lekki and other parts of Lagos Island.

    Those who can afford it simply purchase a litre of the brew at the sales point, and depart for home or a more private location to consume it. The narcotic brews are, however, available at more affordable potions, at N500 and N200, depending on their quality and the dealer.

     

    NDLEA

     

    From the barons to the streets

    There are several ways of getting cocaine from South America to Europe via Lagos, West Africa. In the past, there had been three main hubs in West Africa for receipt and redistribution of the cocaine shipments:  The northern hub, radiating from Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, The Gambia, and Senegal. The southern hub, centered on Nigeria, including Benin, Togo, and Ghana. And an eastern hub, encompassing Mali and parts of Mauritania, of particular use in receiving consignments by air.

    Once in West Africa, the drugs proceed to Europe along a number of routes. In the past, traffickers relied on large mother ships that offloaded cocaine onto smaller coastal craft.  Commercial air couriers can carry only small amounts, but their frequent use can offset this deficiency, and they also allow for great flexibility, moving drugs from any country in the region to any European destination.

    Cocaine shipments can also be trafficked onward by sea or by land across the Sahara to North Africa, where they are flown to Europe in light aircraft or shuttled across the Mediterranean in go-fast boats. As with the Atlantic routes, all of these approaches are utilized in parallel, with the preferred technique and routing changing in response to law enforcement efforts.

    Due to the free movement of people and goods throughout the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, drugs are often routed through member states without the hindrances of border controls.

    The drive from Lagos (Nigeria) through Cotonou (Benin) and Lome (Togo) to Accra (Ghana), for instance, is less than 500 km and can be completed in one day. Guinea- Bissau, one of the primary countries of ingress for cocaine, lacks commercial air links to the destination markets, and connections from Banjul (The Gambia) are not much better. As a result, most air couriers in the north depart from Dakar (Senegal) or Conakry (Guinea).

    On arrival in Europe, the drugs may be sold to European or South American crime groups, or distributed through the extensive network of West Africans involved in retail cocaine distribution.

    South American cocaine transiting West Africa, however, comes from all three source countries: Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.

    Setbacks in West Africa and the opportunities in Honduras after the 2009 coup led Venezuela-based traffickers to shift their attention to the US market. But if the flow from Venezuela has declined, where is West Africa getting its cocaine?

    Brazil may be the answer, particularly for West African- owned shipments. Brazil has long been a source for Lusophone Guinea-Bissau but it has since become a source for countries throughout the region. The amount of cocaine trafficked to and through Brazil has increased remarkably in recent years, as reflected in growing seizure statistics.

    Gbenga Mabo, the Director of Operations and Investigations of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) said in a recent interview that more than 80 per cent of the cocaine that comes into Nigeria comes from Brazil, through Highway 10.

    He argued that because Brazil is surrounded by Peru, Bolivia, Chile and others, a lot of cocaine gets into the country, and a syndicate of Nigerians operating in Brazil smuggles the hard drug into Lagos.

    Nigerians have long dominated commercial air couriering from Brazil: close to 90% of the mules arrested at the international airport in Sao Paulo report obtaining their cocaine from Nigerian groups.

    According to liaison officers in Brazil, Nigerian groups organize up to 30% of the cocaine exports by ship or container from Santos, Brazil’s largest port, up from negligible levels a few years earlier. The Sao Paulo-based Nigerian groups are also responsible for a very large share of the postal shipments of cocaine leaving the country.

     

    Taming the menace

    The menace assumes critical dimension, as vulnerable segments comprising women and children take to drugs. “Women and girls in the north use drugs to increase their libido and escape marital and emotional trauma,” explained Fatima Yahaya, a marriage counsellor and social psychologist.

    But why are kids taking to hard drugs? Recently, the police in Lagos State arrested Ibrahim Sheu, 40, and his son, Faruk Ibrahim, 23, for allegedly selling Tramadol and other hard drugs to primary and secondary school pupils in the state.

    Officials of the Office of Education and Quality Assurance alerted the police to who arrested them and recovered 72 pieces of Tramadol from them.

    “We are toying with a mental health crisis. There is need to educate the public, minors in particular, about the risk of using of illicit drugs. Teenagers across the country take alcohol and coke with Tramadol and cough syrup containing codeine. They take it while smoking cannabis.

    “They get high afterwards and lose all inhibitions, making them agreeable to random acts of violence. Too many of them have killed and are dying in the process,” said Taiye Ajekitan, a psychiatrist.

    Ajekitan called for urgent government intervention stressing that, “Intervention efforts should exceed arresting them and shuttling them off to a reformatory for withdrawal therapy. Many of them step out of the facilities into their troubled world and dysfunctional families.”

    More worrisome is the new fascination with meth among various segments of the country’s drug dependent youths. Few people would forget in a hurry, the viral video clip of a naked couple that were found wandering around the Victoria Garden City ( VGC) Estate in Lagos.

    The video is hard to watch. A young couple walk hand in hand along a lighted street in VGC on Sunday, June 12. They are stark naked. The male, towering above six feet strolls languidly along, with his male organ, shrunken, yet jolting to his strides. His female partner walks dreamily behind, with her crotch bared to the world and her butts undulating to each stride. They walk leisurely down the street, oblivious to the growing mass of pedestrians barking caution at them, hurling restraint at them like cold blankets.

    Cut to a shot of the couple ensconced in bed, in their bedroom. Their eyes look glassy as they stare into space, oblivious of their neighbours, who followed them back into their house, into their bedroom.

    They are high on meth aka Ice or mkpuru mmiri, a synthetic, psychoactive drug. The duo had slashed their neck among other parts of their bodies in a suicidal fit, drawing blood and bleeding all over their apartment.

    Cradling each other in their orgiastic state, they ignore the intruders taking pictures of their naked, bloodied frames and the drug paraphernalia scattered across their dingy apartment.

    The suspected lovers undoubtedly caused a stir as fellow residents saw them strolling, fully naked, around the Victoria Garden City, in Ajah, Lagos. Having failed to get them of the streets, some residents informed the estate management and security guards.

    The latter accompanied the couple back to their residence on Close 63. Also, a message the lovers pasted on the door leading of their apartment read, “If you open this door, you will be cursed.”

    The Chairman, VGC landlords association, Gihan Mbelu, said the couple acted under the influence of hard drugs, adding that he took them to a hospital and they were discharged after two days. He said, “The incident happened around 8pm on Saturday. Before I got there, passersby had already taken pictures and made a video of the two young people. I am using this medium to tell people to stay away from drugs.”

    Mbelu’s suasion resonates the urgent wishes of several Nigerians concerned with the alarming scourge of drug dependent youths and minors that has recently seized the nation in a vice grip.

    For the VGC couple, things took a scary turn in their apartment as they inflicted injuries on their wrists and necks in a suicidal fit. Residents and neighbours engaged the duo as they cuddled in bed, in their bloodstained apartment.

    The lovers allegedly said that they would die and rise again after three days. This is what hard drugs does to youths. And that’s not half as bad as the story gets.

     

  • Ekiti 2022:  Who succeeds Fayemi as governor?

    Ekiti 2022: Who succeeds Fayemi as governor?

    The preferred candidates of incumbent Governor Kayode Fayemi and his predecessor, Ayodele Fayose, as well as a former governor of the state, Segun Oni, are the frontrunners in next week’s governorship election in Ekiti state, reports ‘Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor.

    The Ekiti governorship election holds on June 18. On that day, just about a week from today, the people of the state will decide who will succeed Governor Kayode Fayemi, whose tenure ends soon. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) final list, 16 political parties will participate in the election, comprising 14 male candidates and two females.

    The commission had, on February 16 2022, published the personal particulars and list of candidates (Form EC9) for the election in its State and Local Government offices as required by law. Leading the pack of contenders are Abiodun Oyebanji as the governorship candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Olabisi Kolawole for the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Segun Oni, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

    Two female candidates, Christiana Olatawura of the Action Peoples Party (APP) and Kemi Elebute-Halle of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), are also in the race alongside 38 years old Iyaniwura Ifedayo of the National Rescue Movement (NRM). Also in the race are Reuben Famuyibo of Accord Party, Moses Ajagunigbala of African Action Congress, Oluwole Oluyede of African Democratic Congress,

    Others are Benjamin Obidoyin of All Progressives Grand Alliance, Peter Adegbenro Fagbemi of Allied Peoples Movement, Olugbenga Daramola of Labour Party, Oladosu Abiodun Fatomilola of New Nigeria Peoples Party,  Olaniyi Ben Agboola of People’s Redemption Party, Adebowale Oluranti Ajayi of Young Progressives Party and Kolade Akinyemi Adeolu of Zenith Labour Party.

    But in spite of the presence of more than a dozen political parties in the race, analysts and other observers of the politics of the southwestern state are of very strong opinions that the governorship contest is actually a three horse race among the three most popular political parties in Ekiti state today namely the ruling APC, the PDP, which remains the leading opposition party in the state since it lost power almost four years ago and the SDP, which can be described as the new entrant into the power struggle in the state.

    The development is a departure from the usual trend in the state where the APC and the PDP had always emerged as the parties to beat in the governorship, as well as most other elections in Ekiti state. But the threat posed by the SDP and its candidate, former governor Oni, cannot be wished away ahead of next week’s election as some pundits are staking on the party to possibly spring a surprise by snatching away the seat from the two leading contenders.

    In their bid to snatch victory at the election, all the political parties and their candidates have been moving round the state to sell their manifestos to the electorate and curry their votes ahead of the election. The Nation gathered that the APC, PDP and the SDP have been more visible in the struggle for the people’s votes. “The three parties and their candidates are leaving no one in doubt that they are in the race to win. More of them have been seen talking about campaigns and other electioneering activities,” Dunni Morka, state co-ordinator of Voters Right Agenda (VoRA) said on Thursday.

     

    The contest

    Analysts and election monitors have however observed that there has been less open campaign activities by political parties and candidates unlike what used to obtain in previous elections. But party leaders and sources told our correspondent that efforts are being concentrated at reaching the voters directly at the ward and voting unit level. “Politics is dynamic and it is changing. So, politicians too are learning to swim with the tides. It is now more advisable to do house to house campaign targeted at people with voters card than doing open campaigns.

    “Most of the serious parties and the candidates have campaign teams and agents in all the voting units. These are the people who go out daily to canvass for votes. The needs to reach targeted audience and also cut cost are the reasons for the change in campaign strategy by most of them. Whether the new approach is working or not, we will have to wait for the outcome of the election to say that,” Morka said while speaking with our correspondent. But some observers say the absence of the usual fanfare may not be unconnected with the attention being paid to the various primary elections by the leading political parties ahead of the 2023 general elections.

    Expected to do battle with one another on June 18 are the candidates of the three frontline political parties namely Abiodun Oyebanji, the governorship candidate of the ruling APC, Olabisi Kolawole of the opposition PDP and Segun Oni, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Without prejudice to the other candidates and their political parties, checks across the state reveal that the above named candidates the front-liners in the Ekiti state governorship election this year.

    Pundits however claim some factors, including the popularity of the political party, acceptability of the candidate, post primary election fence mending, among other issues, will determine the performances of the parties and their candidates on June 18. Analysts have also observed that since 1999, no party in the state has won re-election in the governorship race, emphasizing the much touted unpredictability and sophistication of Ekiti voters.

    Leaders of the ruling APC in the state say Governor Fayemi has done enough in the last four years to ensure that the party breaks the jinx on June 18. According to Oyebanji, the party’s candidate, Fayemi’s achievements will be used to win the governorship election. “I was his Secretary to the State Government, so, there’s no way I can remove myself from his government and I’m going to benefit from his achievements. The two will work together. If a government has done well and a candidate wants to run on the platform that produced the Governor, it is natural he will benefit from the performance of that government,” he said.

    But responding, the Bisi Kolawole Campaign Organisation (BKCO) Spokesperson, Lere Olayinka, said in a release, that: “Fayemi’s achievements Oyebanji can build on are banditry that has turned most Ekiti roads to nightmares, kidnappings, workers’ sack, bad roads and blanket looting of public funds. In Ekiti, under Fayemi and his APC government, even primary school teachers are not being spared by bandits, with teachers in the State having to contribute N500 each to pay ransom demanded by kidnappers of one of their colleagues recently.

    “It is alarming that candidate of the APC in the June 18 governorship election, Biodun Oyebanji is joyfully saying that he will continue with this legacy of killings, sacking of workers, kidnappings and infrastructural decay and we await what they will tell Ekiti people when they mount campaign podium.” For Segun Oni of the SDP, his candidacy provides a much needed alternative to both the APC and the PDP which, in his opinion, are both no longer acceptable to the people of the state. “Ekiti people crave for something new. I am the new deal,” he said. This piece further examines how the leading aspirants and their parties stand; their strength and weaknesses, as well as their chances in the governorship election.

     

    Oyebanji (APC)

    Going by his popular moniker, ‘Omo-Ilu (Home Boy), the 54-year-old immediate past Secretary to the State Government (SSG), is no doubt a candidate to watch out for on June 18. He enjoys the support of the incumbent government in the state and is widely regarded as one of the founding fathers of Ekiti, haven being one of the youngest agitators for the creation of the state many years ago. His experience in government, having served two governors of the state namely former governor Niyi Adebayo, the current Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment and incumbent Fayemi, in various key capacities for about eleven years, will also come to bear on his aspiration.

    The APC governorship candidate is a seasoned administrator who served as the special adviser on parliamentary affairs in the administration of Adebayo and was Chief of Staff to Fayemi in his first term. His governorship aspiration enjoys the backing of both Fayemi and Adebayo.

    He acquired a Bachelor of Science (Bsc.) degree in Political Science from the Ondo State University (now Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti) in 1989 and continued his quest for honours at the University of Ibadan, Oyo State in 1992 where he bagged his masters’ Degree (M.Sc) in Political Science (International Relations & Strategic Studies).

    Oyebanji started his professional career as a Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, University of Ado Ekiti, where he worked for four years (1993-1997) and later proceeded to work as Manager, Treasury, and Financial Service at the defunct Omega Bank Plc (now Heritage Bank) till May 1999. Oyebanji is engaged in Agribusiness and is the chairman of Con Dois Farms LTD.

    The former university lecturer was also a banker, a private businessman astute administrator, and a consummate politician. He is married to a senior university teacher. He was also the youngest member and secretary of the Movement for the Creation of Ekiti, which had lobbied the late General Abacha for the creation of the State in 1996.

    In the first term of the current governor, he served as Director-General, Office of Transformation, Strategy and Delivery; Commissioner of Integration and Inter-governmental Relations; and later on, Commissioner of Budget and Economic Planning.

    He has managed the executive-legislature relations, served as Chief of Staff, served as the policy coordinator of government in the OTSD, managed the economy of the state, served as an interface between the State and the Federal Government, international partners, and on regional matters.

    According to Oyebanji, he drafted his manifesto after speaking with residents of the state to learn about their problems and needs. “These ideas have come from my interactions with various categories of Ekiti citizens at home and abroad. I have listened carefully to all that has been said to me, and I am deeply convinced that the task ahead is possible by God’s grace and with us working together. This is not a politician’s usual promise to a voting public but a pledge from an Ekiti man to his people. This is a promise from me to you that we will build on our achievements as a state and strive for more.

    “Our proposed strategic pillars of action are all interlinked. We are ensuring that there is sufficient investment, and attention given to the specific areas we believe have the potential to create opportunities, improve well-being and deliver sustainable growth for everyone; from our elderly, to our youth, to our women, our workers at state and local government levels, our small and micro business owners, our investors, our teachers and our lecturers; and of course, our children. Let me remind you that there is no magic wand to build our state, and that the sustainable progress we want will not happen overnight. We have been on a long journey to reclaim our land and restore our values, it is now time to hunker down and sustain all our gains. Our roadmap focuses on critical growth areas we need to develop, to ensure we deliver the future we want for Ekiti. We have begun that journey, and we are on our way. Of all the candidates in the forthcoming election, I am best placed to deliver on an agenda for Ekiti that is innovative, relevant, inclusive and realistic.”

     

    Strengths

    Being a part and parcel of the current administration in the state is a huge plus for him. He is well known across the state having been part of the politics of Ekiti from the 90s. He worked with almost all the governors that have administered the state and he is reputed to be a worthy contributor to the achievements of those administrations.

    His antecedents will give him ample opportunities to make contacts and build networks with the electorates ahead of the election. Oyebanji’s supporters are quick to cite his contribution to the creation of Ekiti state as one of the youngest agitators in the 90s. He is well known and respected among the older generation of Ekiti people for this reason.

    When he joined other eminent Ekiti indigenes to mount relentless advocacy for the creation of Ekiti State as a 26-year-old lecturer at the then Ondo State University, Ado Ekiti (OSUA), now known as Ekiti State University (EKSU) in the mid-90s, Oyebanji never knew that the symbolic step was the beginning years of selfless services to his fatherland.

    At that young age, Oyebanji had been working and interacting with eminent traditional rulers, legal luminaries, retired permanent secretaries and top bureaucrats, senior university dons, business moguls and captains of industry and other leaders of thought in the state creation drive and relentless advocacy before Ekiti State was created by the late Gen. Sani Abacha-led military government on October 1, 1996.

    Also working for him is the support of the Governor and the leadership of his party. Oyebanji’s popularity was shored up across the state ahead of the election because the APC conducted its governorship primary using the Modified Open Ballot System (MOBS) otherwise known as Direct Primary Mode or Option A4 System. This took his name to the nooks and crannies of the state ahead f him.

    Also, shortly after he resigned from office as the Secretary to the State Government (a position he had held since October 2018) in early December last year, Oyebanji immediately embarked on visits to party leaders and members in their wards to seek their support for his candidature, with a message that he was ready to serve the people of the state.

    By the time the primary election of the APC was held on January 27, 2022, Oyebanji had, according to his campaign office, crisscrossed the 177 wards four times, speaking on his readiness for the top job, the experience he had garnered and why he believed he was the best man for the job in 2022. Thus, he had probably met the electorate more than any of his challengers had done till date.

    There is no doubt that Oyebanji has garnered a lot as a learner and disciple in politics and governance. He boasts of rich political curriculum vitae of working experience acquired at the state and federal levels. To many analysts, these are the experiences he has been showcasing to the electorate. He is widely regarded as a man who has a lot to campaign with.

    Another factor that worked in Oyebanji’s favour was his obvious acceptance by two of Ekiti state’s most influential power brokers: former Governor Adebayo and incumbent Governor Fayemi. The two leaders, who had managed their relationship well for nearly two decades now, appear to be further united by Oyebanji’s candidature, as a known loyalist of the duo.

    Before the APC primary election, it was feared in some quarters that the issue of who emerges as the APC gubernatorial candidate in 2022 will create a serious disagreement between Adebayo and Fayemi, but as it turned out, the two leaders are satisfied having Oyebanji as the candidate. The development ensured that Oyebanji will enjoy the support of the supporters of the two across the state.

    Oyebanji also stands as a favourite in the race on account of the performance of the Fayemi administration. The administration is seen to have performed despite the limited resources available to it. The party has more than 2,000 projects across the length and breadth of the state which the candidate and the party have been pointing to and using as campaign tools ahead of the governorship election.

    The APC has also played smart politics to position its candidate for victory on June 18 by picking Hon Biodun Oyebanji’s running mate, Mrs. Monisade Afuye from Ikere Ekiti, the town   with second largest vote concentration in Ekiti.

    He will also benefit immensely from the victory of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the presidential primary election of the APC and the new found alliance between Tinubu and Governor Fayemi. Before now, the APC in Ekiti state was divided into groups loyal to Tinubu and Fayemi, amidst fears that the Tinubu group may not work for Oyebanji at the polls. But as thigns stand today, the APC will go into the election more united than it was.

     

    Weaknesses

    Oyebanji will be contesting not only against his opponents and their political parties, but also against an age-long myth that political parties in Ekiti state do not win election back to back. As unempirical as the belief is, it is widespread across the state and analysts say it may be the only reason some voters will not bother about finding out much about the candidate of the ruling party.

    Oyebanji’s campaign had to work hard to convince many voters not to judge the APC in Ekiti and its candidate with the scorecard of the federal government, especially in the area of insecurity. The opposition parties, especially the PDP, have been emphasizing on the sorry state of security across the country in their campaign against Oyebanji and the APC.

     

    Prospect

    He remains the obvious front-runner in the race. His chances of winning the election are the brightest barring an unforeseen last minute development. His candidacy and the strength of his political platform combine to give him an edge in the race.

     

    Kolawole (PDP)

    Kolawole had resigned his position as Ekiti PDP chairman to contest the governorship election. He was the preferred aspirant of Fayose, former governor of the state. He defeated Segun Oni, an ex-governor, and Kolapo Olusola, a former deputy governor in the state primary election amidst allegations of imposition and irregularities.

    The 64-yearold candidate of the PDP is arguably one of the most experienced politicians in the race for the coming election. A former House of Assembly member, commissioner and party chairman, Kolawole, from Efon-Ekiti, is enjoying the full backing of former governor Ayodele Fayose who many believe is popular among the voting population.

    The PDP candidate had represented the Efon state constituency in the Ekiti State House of Assembly and later served as the Commissioner of the Environment between 2015 and 2018. Prior to his emergence as the chairman of the PDP in Ekiti, Kolawole had also been the Director General of the governorship campaign of Olusola Eleka, the party’s governorship aspirant in the 2018 gubernatorial election. He contested for the Chairman opposition of the Ekiti PDP chapter and pulled a total of 1651 votes out of 1690 votes.

    He was actively involved in Students Union politics at the Yaba College of Technology. In 1999, he moved to Efon Alaaye from Lagos. He became a Supervisor in the Efon-Alaaye Local Government. In the year 2007, he was elected under the PDP platform to the Ekiti House of Assembly, and was Chairman of the House Committee on Works.

    He was a significant stabilising force in the Assembly and indeed, the state during the 13 PDP and 13 AC (later ACN) membership of the House of Assembly. In 2013, he was appointed by the Federal Government as a member of the Governing Council of the Federal Polytechnic, Bida, Niger State. He contested the 2019 federal elections to represent his constituency in the House of Representatives. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the PDP.

    He cannot be underrated in the build-up to the poll considering his credentials, experience and the fact that he is contesting on the platform of the major opposition party, with presence across the 177 wards in the state. Kolawole says with the support of other party leaders, he is in the race to win.

    When asked why he is in the race , Kolawole said “I am contesting because we are very familiar with the situation in Ekiti. We know where the shoe pinches because the present APC government in the state has not done enough. People are suffering with no care from the government. The workers and pensioners are being owed as we speak. The roads and other facilities are bad and dilapidated and our youths are not being encouraged to go into farming and other opportunities. With me in the saddle, all these will be looked into.

    “Let me tell you that the totality of all these things will make an average Ekiti person comfortable and well. Don’t forget that I am familiar with governance, having been a member of the House of Assembly, and a commissioner in the state. All these are important. The people are not asking government to make them millionaires. They just want to be comfortable. Provide adequate social services to them. The totality of all I have said is one of the reasons that have prompted me to go all out for it and by the grace of God, with experience and support of the people, the situation will improve.”

     

    Strengths

    As a former State chairman of the opposition PDP, Kolawole is widely known across the state. He is also known to have a wide political structure peopled largely by leaders of the PDP in the various wards and Local Governments of the state. The PDP candidate will also benefit immensely from the street credibility and state-wide popularity of his godfather, former governor Ayodele Fayose, who ensured his emergence as the party’s candidate.

    Expressing optimism, Fayose had said, “Kolawole is more than popular. Let me give you the CV of the PDP candidate. Our candidate is a personal friend of Engineer Oni. He is a personal friend of Prince Dayo Adeyeye. He was a member of House of Assembly under Oni and Fayemi. I heard Governor Oni described Kolawole as a stabilising factor that time. Beyond that, when you want to campaign, one of the first set of the people you will choose for your campaign is the Director General of the campaign; the DG of a campaign must be a man of means, of knowledge, known and who has what it takes.

    “Our candidate was the DG of Adeyeye Campaign even against me in 2014. Back to back, he became the DG of my candidate too in 2018. Why is everybody choosing him? Why are they not choosing somebody else within the space of two elections? My candidate became the chairman of PDP in an election which produced the same delegates that produced the governorship candidate. Kolawole, by the grace of God, was a member of the highest body of the party in Nigeria as a BOT member. So, what other CV do you want? He has functioned in virtually all sectors.”

    In the words of the National Chairman of the PDP, former Senate President Iyorchia Ayu, Kolawole “knows the rudiments of Ekiti state politics haven gone through the State House of Assembly, served as Commissioner and later emerged the state chairman of the party. He has seen it all as a politician. He is a perfect fit as our candidate. So, Kolawole is a well breed politician.”

    Also working in tandem for Kolawole and the PDP is the age-long myth that political parties in Ekiti state do not win election back to back. As unempirical as the belief is, it is widespread across the state and analysts say it may be the only reason some voters will not bother about finding out much about the candidate of the ruling party.

    The opposition party is party is hoping to repeat the feat performed by Fayose against Fayemi in 2014 by sacking the ruling party from the Government House at the polls. But with Segun Oni and the SDP putting up spirited effort to make good impact during the election, the efficacy or otherwise of the famed myth is not limited to the PDP alone this time.

     

    Weaknesses

    The PDP is currently balkanised in Ekiti state with the group loyal to Senator Biodun Olujimi still largely aggrieved. The silence of the leadership of the group as regards the party’s campaign effort is a source of concern to stakeholders as pundits warn that the disagreement may cost Kolawole and his party some erstwhile PDP strongholds during the guber election.

    “The inability of the party to resolve the lingering differences and bring everybody on board the campaign is a major issue that may work against us on June 18. Groups like those loyal to Senator Olujimi among many others are yet to be properly pacified and integrated into the mainstream of the party ahead of the election. This is a serious source of worry,” a party source claimed.

    Pundits say in spite of efforts by Fayose to unite the PDP ahead of the election, some supporters and allies of Olujimi and former deputy governor, Professor Kolapo Eleka, are refusing to work for Kolawole’s aspiration. Fayose had ensured Olujimi got a return ticket to the senate last month when his ally, Segun Adekola, withdrew from the race to allow Olujimi pick the ticket.

    But not much have been heard or seen from the Senator’s camp in support of Kolawole’s aspiration since after the PDP senatorial primary in spite of indications that her victory at the poll may have been a result of a peace move initiated by the national leadership of the party and encouraged by Fayose in order to ensure all hands are on deck to win the June 18 election.

     

    Prospect

    Kolawole is a strong contender for the coveted governorship seat and he stands a good chance of emerging victorious at the polls on June 18. His political antecedents as well as the famed acceptability of Fayose across the state make him a candidate to reckon with.

     

    Oni (SDP)

    Oni, who was governor of the state between 2007 and 2010 before he was sacked by the judiciary in a judgement that brought incumbent governor Fayemi into office for his first term, is seeking to return to the Ado Ekiti Government House through what his supporters call the ‘third force’, twelve years after leaving office. No doubt, Oni is widely seen as one of the best persons to have governs the state. He enjoys impressive goodwill among the people of the state due to his exploits across critical sectors when he was in the office. He was a foundation member of the United Nigeria, Congress Party / (UNCP) where he played a largely supportive role as a party loyalist. He is also a foundation member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ekiti.

    He was nominated by the Honourable Minister of Education in September 1999, to serve on the Board of Trustees of Education Trust Fund (ETF) as Trustee representing the South West. He was elected governor of Ekiti State in 2007 and took office on May 29, 2007. Last February, he joined the SDP to contest the June 18 governorship election in the state after losing at the primary election of the PDP. Oni insisted he dumped the party over alleged electoral malfeasance and irregularities during the primary.

    When asked on how the SDP will win without a known structure less than four months to the election, the former governor maintained that the will and aspirations of the people is the most important structure needed to defeat the APC and PDP in the state.

    The Ifaki-born politician caused a stir in the state when he claimed that no fewer that four aggrieved governorship aspirants in the APC, members of a factional group in Ekiti APC, the South West Agenda for Asiwaju 2023 (SWAGA); members of the repositioning group in the PDP and others are forming what he described as a grand collation to win the election.

    Considering his political journey and attainments, it is clear that Oni has followers in the ruling and main opposition parties, which has become a bulwark for his campaign and ambition in the SDP. Ekiti and indeed the world are waiting for the political ingenuity and wizardry that Oni would bring to bear to turn the table against the APC and the dominant opposition PDP in this game.

    Oni assured the people that his return to the saddle of governance would usher in robust security architecture, improved human capital and infrastructure development, civil service restructuring, education and technology fortification, employment generation and good and affordable healthcare services, among others.

    “We will partner you to rediscover the Ekiti Dream, where we shall collectively build a prosperous land, seek the forgotten and leave no one behind. It is going to be an all-inclusive government because no one can do it all alone. We will allow people to take ownership of government as power belongs to them under an ideal democratic structure.

    ” I am confident we will come back, and we are going to come back even better and stronger than before. Your clarion call to me to return in the service of the state has met my preparedness to serve you again and even better. But we must come together, keep together and work together to get things done. I do not doubt that we will do better when we work together,” he said.

     

    Strengths

    Oni has two things going for him in this game and that is the goodwill he has garnered over the years as a former governor, where he employed over 6,000 people into the civil service. Some people across the state also have the general feeling that he is one leader with spartan, modest and receptive mien, who can be trusted with power.

    And in Ekiti, the civil service remains a vital sector during elections, because it consists of over 60, 000 population all within voting ages. This gives them advantage to remove any governor at will, especially those they do not want. So, if Oni’s famed popularity among workers in the state is translated into votes on June 18, he will be greatly benefited.

    Supporters of the SDP candidate say he is the man to beat on June 18 because the popular opinion across the state is that there is a need to bring back Segun Oni as the governor of Ekiti State for a new dawn of development and growth to emerge in the state. To them, the people are going to vote the former governor based on his performance while in office.

    Of a truth, many people in Ekiti still relish what they call the good old times of Segun Oni as governor. But it is left to be seen whether the number of people who feel that way are enough to return him to government house. The widespread complaints about the failure of the current administration in the country in the areas of economy and security are being exploited by Oni’s campaign against APC.

    Olukunle Olu-Ojo, politician and staunch supporter of Oni, said; “what Ekiti needs at this particular time is not a continuation of hardship, woes and selfish governance but a new dawn to usher in good governance and socio-economic development. This is a time to bring in a tested and trusted leader with record of achievements. It is going to be a new dawn this June 18th, not continuity of hardship.”

    Oni also boasts of a wide political network across the state that is expected to work in his favour. A coalition of political parties and groups had also joined his campaign to strengthen his chances.

    The fact that he brought out his running mate, Ladi Owolabi, from Ado Ekiti, the capital city, which has the largest percentage of voting population in the state, also reinforced his chances in this election. Also, Ado Ekiti has the largest percentage of voting population and it remains one of the swing local governments in election victory.

     

    Weaknesses

    The major drawback to Oni’s ambition is his political platform. In spite of efforts by the former governor and his campaign structure to popularize the party in the state, SDP remains far less popular than the APC and the PDP across the state. While Oni’s name has done a lot to take the party’s name and logo into the homes of the people, pundits say much still need to be done for SDP to unseat the APC in the state.

    There are those who feel he has nothing to return to in the Government House and thus, will not vote for him. “The biggest blow to Segun Oni’s ambition is the hatred our people now have for recycled leadership. We had seen the best of Segun Oni between 2007 and 2010, so our people are yearning for a new, competent leadership and that is what Hon Kolawole of the PDP represent,” a pundit claimed.

    Similarly, Oni is also seen s a serial contestant in some quarters and this is also a huge minus for him couple with allegations that he is an ambitious politician with a penchant to always dump his political party for another. His defections from the APC and the PDP in quick succession have also cost him many of his trusted foot-soldiers across the state as many of them refused to follow him out of their political parties when he left. This will surely work against him at the polls.

     

    Prospect

    He remains one of the three front runners in the race. Many of his supporters expect him to spring a surprise that will see him displace the candidates of APC and PDP and clinch the seat on June 18. Although this remains a very tall order, it is not outright impossibility given Oni’s political antecedents and pedigree.

     

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  • 2023: Who wins APC’s presidential ticket?

    2023: Who wins APC’s presidential ticket?

    By Dare Odufowokan, Jide Oritunsin, Gbade Ogunwale, Osagie Otabor, Onimisi Alao, Damian Duruiheoma, Linus Oota, Abdulgafar Alabelewe, Okungbowa Aiwerie, David Adenuga, Sola Shittu

    The race to pick the presidential flag bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) comes to a head one week from today.  The party will screen 25 presidential aspirants on May 23, 2022, amidst talks that some may not show up for the exercise.  After igniting much controversy, former President Goodluck Jonathan, Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele and African Development Bank (AfDB) President, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina, all opted out of the race.

    Nobody ever thought the number of APC chieftains seeking to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023 would be this high. Not even the high cost of N100 million for the purchasing the expression of interest and nomination forms has been a deterrent.

    At the close of sales of forms on Tuesday, 10th of May, 2022, 28 aspirants picked up forms, but only 25 of such forms were duly filled and returned by the aspirants.

    If they are cleared by the screening committee and they do not opt out of the race before the date, National Leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, ex-ministers Rotimi Amaechi, Godswill Akpabio and Ogbonnaya Onu, former governors Rochas Okorocha and Ibikunle Amosun, Pastor Tunde Bakare and Cross River State Governor, Ben Ayade, will slug it out at the two-day national convention of the party beginning May 29. Others in the contest are Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi, Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi; former Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, Kogi State

    Governor, Yahaya Bello, Jigawa State Governor, Mohammed Badaru, former Zamfara State Governor, Ahmed Yerima, Senator Ajayi Borroffice, Uju Ohnenye, Nicholas Nwagbo, Former House of Representatives Speaker, Dimeji Bankole, former Minister of Information, Ikeobasi Mokelu and businessman Tein Jack-Rich.

    Out of this crowded field, there would be one man left standing. In this piece, we examine how the aspirants stand; their strengths and weaknesses, as well as their 2023 general elections prospects, were they to emerge as their party’s candidate.

     

    YEMI OSINBAJO

    The incumbent Vice-President Osinbajo, declared his intention to succeed Buhari on April 11, 2022. He started his political career under the tutelage of Tinubu, serving as Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice for eight unbroken years. His emergence as running mate in

    2015 was down to the fact that powerful voices rose up within the party to oppose what would have been a Muslim-Muslim Buhari-Tinubu ticket. He was subsequently nominated by Tinubu as running mate to Buhari.

    STRENGTHS

    On the hustings, he has been highlighting his experience serving as number two as his key strength. As number two, he also served as Acting President when his principal was in London on medical leave.

    Being in government he has ample opportunities to make contacts and improve on networks built up over time.

    In his role, he was a front man for some of the administration’s key welfare and development initiatives. Although, he was later stripped of most of his powers as these programmes would be transferred to what eventually became the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs at the start of the second term in 2019.

    The VP who is a professor of Law is acknowledged as an articulate speaker. He is also a senior pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) – one of Nigeria’s largest Pentecostal congregations – which recently launched an initiative to make its members more politically active, a move interpreted by many as the church’s effort at drawing up for their own.

    He has embarked on nationwide consultations to sell his aspiration to delegates and critical stakeholders and is believed to have the backing of some governors and professionals under the platform of The Progressive Project (TPP).

    The Osinbajo project enjoys the backing of a former aide to President Buhari on Niger Delta Affairs, Senator Ita Ennang. He also has a vociferous promoter in Senator Babafemi Ojudu, Special Adviser to the President on Political Affairs.

    WEAKNESSES

    Osinbajo lacks the political structure for the actualisation of his aspiration. The lukewarm and non-committal attitude of his principal to who succeeds him may also throw a spanner in the wheel of his presidential ambition.

    Except for his home state – Ogun State, the Vice President may not enjoy the support of the Southwest geopolitical zone where his political godfather Tinubu holds sway. He will have his erstwhile boss to contend with in his native Ogun given the presence of many protégées of the former Lagos governor on the state’s political scene. He may not also find it easy with former governor Ibikunle Amosun, also vying for the ticket.

    His chances in Ondo State are uncertain despite his friendship with Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. He may also not be able to take delegates away from Ekiti Governor Fayemi who is in the race and Tinubu who enjoys a cult following in the state.

    Pundits say Osinbajo will garner some votes in Nasarawa State where Governor Abdullahi Sule is said to have some sympathy for him. But sources in the state say there are other factors aside from the governor, that will decide how the delegates will vote. “We may have a situation where each delegate will vote according to the dictates of his or her leader,” a source said.

    It is also feared that recent political development in the state and the country has given the governor a bitter lesson about taking early positions after he led the stakeholders of the party in the state to endorse Tanko Al-Makura for APC national chairman, only to see him lose out to Senator Abdullahi Adamu.

    It was gathered that Sule is now more careful in handling political matters, more so when the issue concerns who the state under his leadership will support at the forthcoming presidential primaries of the party.

    Our correspondent gathered that the three political leaders in the state, Sule, APC national chairman Adamu and Al-Makura have all agreed to lead Nasarawa State delegates as a united family into supporting one single presidential candidate. Apart from this handful of states, it is uncertain where Osinbajo would get the delegates haul to earn him the ticket.

    Analysts say the Ikenne-born politician’s best hope of emerging flagbearer lies in winning Buhari’s endorsement, but that may just turn out to be a pipe dream, considering his strained relationship with some northern elements over the removal of the erstwhile Director-General of the Department of State Security (DSS), Lawal Daura, while Buhari was away on leave vacation.

    Political watchers say the Vice President is yet to be forgiven by this close group around Buhari who may be bent on taking their pound of flesh.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    Were he to emerge flagbearer, the VP faces an uphill task of rallying the Southwest zone to back his aspiration – especially the base of Tinubu whose supporters would need to be pacified. With him as a candidate, the PDP would fancy their chances of dislodging APC from their traditional stronghold.

    Losing the Southwest would leave the ruling party in grave electoral peril as it unlikely to seize the Southeast or South-South zones any time soon from the PDP. He is likely to flounder in the North, and do poorly in the Southeast and South-South which the traditional bases of the PDP.

     

    AHMAD LAWAN

    The entrance of Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, into the race has mystified many as it defies all assumptions that APC would respect power rotation agreement between North and South reached at its formation.

    His aspiration appears to be pitching the party’s overnors against members of the National Assembly. His promoters argue that presenting another Notherner –despite the fact that Buhari would have served eight years by next year – is the best way to keep PDP out of power.

    There are also suspicions that his may not be a serious challenge given that he also picked up the Senate nomination form while supposedly launching a presidential bid, A three-time member of the House of Representatives, Lawan’s emergence as President of the 9th Senate has enhanced his political clout and reach. But it has also led to rumblings in a section of Yobe State who grumble that he’s done overtime having been in the National Assembly since 1999.

    STRENGTHS

    He is believed to have the backing of some members of the National Assembly. He equally has the support of his governor, Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State and his Imo State counterpart, Hope Uzodinma. Both governors picked the Expression of Interest form for him, accompanied by some Senators who are not likey to attend the convention as delegates. Some of the forces were said to have pushed the aborted bids of former President Goodluck Jonathan and Central Bank Governor Emefiele are thought to be pushing the Lawan project.

    WEAKNESSES

    With no visible campaign structure outside his state, the Senate President is regarded as something of a paperweight. In 2015, he was supported by Tinubu, once President Buhari had indicated he preferred him to lead the legislative arm. But he was easily out-manouvered by former Kwara State governor, Bukola Saraki. It would take the concerted efforts of the former Lagos governor and other key APC leaders to push him over the line in 2019.

    He doesn’t have the name recognition of some of the other aspirants across the country. His best hope of becoming flagbearer, again, revolves round the hope that Buhari would endorse him. But the prozoning agitation is still his major albatross as this could make delegates from the South defy all entreaties and vote against his candidacy.

    The current Electoral Act is also seen as a huge impediment to his ambition. One of Lawan’s supposed strengths is the expectation that he will reap bountifully from the votes of fellow National Assembly members who were statutory delegates to the convention. But unless Buhari gives his assent to the Electoral Act 2022 Amendment Bill before the commencement of the presidential primary election, only 2,340 adhoc delegates will participate in the exercise. The implication of this for Lawan’s ambition is huge as his base would have disappeared in a flash.

    Some days ago, the National Assembly amended Section 84 of the Electoral Act. The legislators deleted subsection (8) and inserting a new sub-section (8) that reads: “A political party that adopts the system of indirect primaries for the choice of its candidates shall clearly outline in its constitution and rules the procedure for the democratic election of delegates to vote at the convention, congress or meeting, in addition to statutory delegates already prescribed in the Constitution of the party.”

    The provision in the Electoral Act before the most recent amendment by the National Assembly, which is awaiting the President’s assent read: “A political party that adopts the system of indirect primaries for the choice of its candidate shall clearly outline in its constitution and rules the procedure for the democratic election of delegates to vote at the convention, congress or meeting. The hope of the super delegates to participate in the primary election now depends on Buhari’s disposition to the bill before him.

    Also likely to work against him is the perception that the National Assembly under him hasn’t been outstanding. Many have derided it as a rubberstamp only too willing to do the bidding of the Executive.

    Analysts say except he is foisted upon the party by Buhari, Lawan is unlikely to emerge as the APC candidate.

     

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECT

    With sentiments in the South decidedly against another Northerner taking over from Buhari who would have spent eight years in office by next year, a Lawan candidacy would go down like a lead balloon. He would be faced with impossible task of explaining why the APC reneged on power rotation – leading to crushing electoral defeat not only in The Southwest, but also in the Southeast where the push for Igbo presidency has been quite aggressive this time around. His prospects are no better in the South-south zone where he would be confronted by similar sentiments.

    BOLA AHMED TINUBU

    The former Lagos State governor parades intimidating political credentials. His network cut across several political tendencies, and he is adjudged to be the frontrunner in the race for the presidential ticket.

    He was first in the pack to publicly declare his intention to be president. He is one man with a strong passion and conviction to change the political, economic and socio-cultural narratives of the country.

    An acclaimed bridge-builder, Asiwaju’s political network explains the calibre and spread of referees that endorsed his expression of interest and nomination forms. He remains the aspirant to beat in terms of reach.

    To date, Asiwaju has been and is still visiting delegates across the country. He has reached out not only to members of the political class, including President Buhari, the caucuses of the two chambers of the National Assembly, state governors, delegates, and party chieftains, but his nationwide tour has also secured him the blessings of religious leaders and traditional rulers.

    His antecedents in Lagos State where he was governor for eight years, the institutional structures he built for the emergence of a new city state, his strong analytical mind and sense of judgement and ability to discover, nurture and promote potential are some of his virtues that even his political foes cannot deny. His rich private sector background as a high flier in Exxon Mobil, a multinational oil giant, and Delloite and Touche, an international accounting firm, prepared him as an all-round manager which explained his success in his turn-around management of Lagos state.

    While his adversaries have tried to make an issue of his health, Tinubu’s busy itinerary and his ability to meet up with his daily activities have been the appropriate riposte. He has over time proved that he is physically, mentally and spiritually prepared for the task ahead of him.

    STRENGTHS

    With over 5,000 different support groups rooting for his ambition, his links across the Niger and endorsement from the creeks of Niger Delta, Tinubu remains the frontrunner in the race for the APC presidential ticket. Majority of delegates in Ondo state are expected to vote for him. Several support groups in the state working for the aspiration of Tinubu are National Committee for Tinubu Campaign Groups (NCTSG), Southwest Agenda (SWAGA) Tinubu Hope for Nigeria Vanguard, Yoruba Ronu, Ondo State Network for Tinubu (OSNT), Tinubu Support Group (TSG) Asiwaju Change Movement, amongst others. Party sources said though the delegates in Ondo will be divided among the leading aspirants, Tinubu will garner the majority.

    According to another source: “Majority of us are for Asiwaju Tinubu but you know Osinbanjo is a friend of our governor while some party executives are supporting Fayemi. Few days to the primary will determine the full direction of where Ondo delegates will go.”

    Tinubu will pocket all the votes of delegates in Lagos State. This needs little or no explanation. He has been the undisputable godfather of the state’s politics since 2003. He will garner more votes than anybody else in Oyo State on account of his age-long politics of inclusion. His allies and loyalists are on hand to ensure he wins the state, although it is expected that Osinbajo would also make gains here.

    The delegates in Osun State are mainly his for the asking with Governor Gboyega Oyetola, political office holders and party leaders ready to back him to the hilt. Tinubu will share the votes of delegates in Ogun with Osinbajo and Amosun.

    In Ekiti, delegates would be shared between state governor Fayemi, Tinubu and Osinbajo. However, the governor is expected to have the bulk of the votes in the state.

    Tinubu enjoys cut-like followership in Ekiti being a leading figure that fought for the return of progressives government after the famous 2003 political hurricane that consumed the re-election bid of Otunba Niyi Adebayo and three other governors in the Southwest except him who stood firmly, escaped the political conquest and retained Lagos.

    The former governor enjoys the backing of APC prominent stakeholders. They include the National Coordinator of South West Agenda for Tinubu 2023 (SWAGA), Senators Dayo Adeyeye, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, Anthony Adeniyi, ex- Speaker, Ekiti State House of Assembly, Hon. Wale Omirin.

    Others are ex-House of Representatives members, Hon. Oyetunde Ojo, Bimbo Daramola, Prince Bamigboye Adegoroye, amongst others. These grassroots politicians are delegates at the coming national convention and are die hard and trusted loyalists of the former Lagos governor.

    As for the APC in Adamawa, as things stand today in the state, the pendulum of delegates’ support will most likely swing in Tinubu’s favour where he has key backers in the likes of former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal and former EFCC chairman, Nuhu Ribadu.

    Bauchi State APC is rooting for him and analysts say the former Lagos governor looks good to get good votes from delegates in Gombe and Taraba States. Borno is practically for him with former governor, Senator Kashim Shettima leading his squad. He may not do too well in Yobe State, being the home state of Lawan and Buni. Amidst permutations that the delegates in the Southeast will be shared between Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State and Senate President Lawan, pundits and party sources say Tinubu will still garner sizeable votes in the region owing to his many years of relationship with some of the leading chieftains of the party in the region. Tinubu is very popular in Nasarawa State where he has some foot soldiers helping with his campaign. He is expected to slug it out with Amaechi and Osinbajo for the votes of the delegates. Until very recently, it was widely believed that governor of the state, Abdullahi Sule, was in support of the former Lagos governor.

    Former governor of the state, Senator Almakura, is a key backer. Tinubu also enjoys the support of a number of National Assembly members from the state. His support base is equally huge in Niger State where the governor, Abubakar Sani-Bello is an ardent supporter.

    The presence and leadership of Minister of Special Duties, Senator George Akume, in Benue APC assures him of the support of the delegates from the state. His recent warm reception in Kwara is a pointer to another state where he is quite strong.

    Katsina State looks very good for him with Governor Aminu Masari seen as one of his staunch supporters. He just concluded a triumphant visit to Kano where he received the enthusiastic endorsement of Governor Abdullahi Ganduje and state delegates.

    He equally has reasons to be positive about Kaduna State. Sokoto is another safe zone for Tinubu. His relationship with Senator Aliyu Wammako, is long and enduring and expected to translate into votes for him.

    In the South-South zone, he is expected to do well in Edo State where former governor Adams Oshiomhole is nominally a presidential aspirant but is known to be more interested in the senatorial contest.

    Most analysts agree he’s in pole position to clinch the presidential ticket in an open, free and fair contest, barring any unforeseen development before or during the primary election.

    WEAKNESSES

    Among issues that have been raised against Tinubu is that he is old at 70. There is also the suggestion that certain vested interests are not keen on him winning the party’s ticket. He has also lost some of his old associates who for their own reasons have chosen to move on to new friends. He countered the claim that he is too old at 70 by saying that the job of a President calls for mental alertness and that he is not only mentally sound he is also as fit as a fiddle for the job.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    These are considered generally bright for the APC National Leader. His presence on the ticket would galvanise support for the ruling party and energise voter turnout in the Southwest base. He may not help APC takeover the Southeast or South-South, but his ability to keep his stronghold means the party can reprise its electoral victories of 2015 and 2019 if it can manage a majority in the North while keeping hold of the Southwest, the bastion of support for the party.

    In the North, he is as popular as he is in the Southwest that is eagerly waiting for him to emerge. Voters in the North will reward him for standing firmly with Buhari , leading to the defeat of an incumbent President, the first if its kind in Nigeria. Analysts see a reenactment of the MKO Abiola phenomenon when a popular politician from the Southwest defeated a Northerner in the election of 1993.

     

    JOHN KAYODE FAYEMI

    The Ekiti State Governor and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), John Kayode Fayemi, popularly called JKF, is another contender for the coveted ticket. Aside from Ekiti, the political strength of Fayemi in the Southwest is limited. However, opponents should not underrate him because he has been central to appenings in the party in the last two years.

    STRENGTHS

    Fayemi is expected to harvest the bulk of the votes in his state. He controls the structure from the ward to state level and the executives have undiluted loyalty to him. Ordinarily, this would be an electoral fortress for the governor but the visible imprints of Tinubu in Ekiti APC would be his greatest headache.

    As NGF chairman, two-term governor and former minister, Fayemi has built up an impressive network of political contacts across the country.

    However, it remains to be seen whether leading the governors’ body actually translates into tangible capital that can pay off in the primaries. He positions himself as an intellectual.

    WEAKNESSES

    He doesn’t have visible political structures outside his state. Despite his close ties to El-Rufai, no governor is known to be backing his aspiration.

    His best chance of getting the ticket may be the endorsement of Buhari which may never come.

    Recently, his role in the leadership of the ruling party came back to bite him with Oshiomhole alleging that Fayemi tried to get him to commit electoral fraud. The Ekiti governor replied by suggesting that none of that happened and his former colleague was suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).

    However, his role and that of other APC governors who were not pleased that Godwin Obaseki didn’t get a second term remains the object of much controversy. The ruling party eventually lost the Edo governorship to PDP because of lukewarm support and even outright backing for the other side as has been claimed by Ganduje who led his party’s effort to retain the state.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    Pitched against a probable Atiku PDP candidacy, he would also be a lightweight. He would also have to work hard to rally the Southwest to produce the sort of fervor Tinubu does among his supporters. Again, he, like most other APC aspirants, would struggle to make inroads in the Southeast and South-South zones.

     

    ROTIMI AMAECHI

    The former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Chibike Amaechi, is a presidential aspirant to watch. He is leaving no stone unturned to succeed Buhari. But pundits say he will have to do much more to win the ticket. He has traversed the length and breadth of the country seeking the support of party chieftains and delegates for his dream to come through.

    STRENGTHS

    Amaechi prides himself as the most experienced in the race. He has been Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for eight years, Chairman of Forum of Speakers for eight years, two-term governor, Chairman of NGF for eight years, twice Director-General of the Buhari Campaign Organisation and minister for almost eight years. He tells anybody who cares to listen that he’s the most qualified and equipped aspirant to lead a post-Buhari era.

    Many hail his time as government as a period of great infrastructural development in the state, with the building of major roads and high standard public schools.

    Amaechi will naturally win the votes from his native Rivers and do well in neighbouring Bayelsa State following the withdrawal of Timipre Sylva from the contest. He is also known to be strong in Kaduna State on account of his friendship with Governor El Rufai and Buhari.

    But his strongest base up north appears to be Plateau State where his ties with Governor Solomon Lalong go back to their days as Speakers. He is also known to have supported the governor’s electoral efforts in past.

    Lalong pointedly referred to this during the former minister’s recent visit to Jos, when he said it was time for him to reap from his investment.

    Aside his much-vaunted experience, he’s a political warrior who never shirks a fight. He’s is also said to with an adequate war-chest required to prosecute a presidential bid.

    WEAKNESSES

    However, his standing in the Southeast is not impressive. He was even asked to stop referring to himself as an Igbo man by leaders of the zone recently. And in the southwest, he is not known to enjoy any political goodwill in any of the states, nor does he have any special relationship with prominent leaders of the party in the zone. He will lose woefully in the zone.

    His major albatross lies in his home state where despite being a twoterm governor, incumbent Nyesom Wike has made it his life’s project to wipe out his erstwhile boss’ political footprints. Part of this war of attrition has seen the ex-minister entangled in the report of a panel of inquiry set up to probe his administration’s sale of the state-owned turbines.

    Amaechi is currently in court to overturn the report of the panel which he claims was politically-motivated. This week would be crucial as the Supreme Court would rule whether the Rivers State government was in the right in setting up the panel. If the court upholds the indictment, it would be a blow to Amaechi’s bid.

    Apart from not being able pull through his succession plan in 2015, APC has been virtually neutralized as a force in the state. Not just that, his former ally and Secretary for Government, Senator Magnus Abe, has become an implacable foe, locked in mortal combat with the former minister. The upshot is a party divided down the middle in the state.

    Amaechi has tried to parlay close ties to the president as an advantage in the race. He even was turbaned Dan Ammanar in Buhari’s hometown of Daura. So, even if the delegates counts doesn’t make him the frontrunner, he would be hoping that a presidential anointing tilts the race in his favour.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    It’s hard to see how an Amaechi candidacy helps APC to retain power.

    For the party to be able to get its own elected as Buhari’s successor, it must retain at – no matter how marginally. The former minister isn’t going to enthuse Southwest voters neither is he going to snatch his South-South base which is a PDP stronghold. We can also say the same thing for the Southeast which would be frustrated that its strong push for the presidency hasn’t been accepted by the two leading parties. He will be easily demolished by the PDP

     

    IBIKUNLE AMOSUN

    The former governor of Ogun State is one of the three presidential aspirants from the state. Believed to be one of the closest Southwest politicians to Buhari, the Senator for Ogun Central is not a pushover.

    Though currently at loggerheads with Governor Dapo Abiodun, political watchers in the “Gateway State” say he may have to look elsewhere as he may not get the support of delegates from his state. He is also not known to have built any political structure outside Ogun. He is no threat to the leading contenders.

    However, if statutory delegates eventually make it to the convention, he may be in position to negotiate with stronger contenders.

     

    OGBONNAYA ONU

    The former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Ogbonnaya Onu, a founding member of the APC is one of the aspirants from the Southeast. Highly respected by Buhari, the 70-year-old presidential hopeful may be banking on President’s endorsement as consensus candidate.

    Political observers noted that the first civilian governor of Abia State lacks the required political structure that can deliver him his desired job.

    He lacks the needed national clout and name recognition the contest for president requires. He may be in the contest to maintain his relevance.

     

    DIMEJI BANKOLE

    The youngest politician ever to have occupied the nation’s number four seat, the likeable and ever-smiling, Dimeji Bankole, former Speaker of the sixth House of Representatives, has been in limbo after he failed to return to the National Assembly.

    Observers argue that Bankole, whose bid for the Ogun State governorship seat fell flat at the last polls, cannot be taken seriously for the presidency of the country. He is considered to be one of the pretenders who are in the race for another motive.

     

    CHUKWUEMEKA NWAJUIBA

    The former Minister of State for Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajuiba, is another aspirant to watch. He was the first to obtain the nomination forms and the first to return them. A well-connected member of the inner caucus of President Buhari’s defunct Congress for Positive Change (CPC), sources within the Presidency said that Nwajuiba is one of the few Southeastern leaders that have the ears of the president. Some even refer to him as “Buhari’s son.”

    The former member of the House of Representatives is leveraging on the influence of the Forum of Former Members of the House to reach out not only to the delegates but to other crucial organs of the party. But the rug might have been pulled off his feet with the confusion surrounding participation of statutory delegates.

    Though one cannot attest to his financial viability for the race, his ability to raise the N100 million must have sent a signal to his political detractors that he has the financial war chest to prosecute the election.

    Described by some party faithful as the dark horse in the presidential race, the politician’s albatross is the lingering strike by the Academic Staff Union of Nigerian Universities (ASUU). Many have derided is decision to run saying the never-ending strike wasn’t the best advertisement for his problem-solving abilities.

     

    YAHAYA BELLO

    Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, joined the race far ahead of many aspirants, but his critics never take him seriously. Bello used his assignment under the Mai Mala Buni-led Caretaker Committee as Chairman of the Mobilisation and Sensitisation Committee of the just concluded membership registration and revalidation exercise to sell his aspiration to party faithful.

    The tenacity with which he has been pursuing his ambition has won him the hearts of many party members, mostly youth, women and physically-challenged persons. However, he lacks political structures and alliances outside his home state and that will count against him in the race. He is not seen as a serious contender and power rotation calculation would work against him.

     

    DAVE UMAHI

    Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi, was the first aspirant from the Southeast to declare for the presidency. He joined the race immediately after Tinubu’s declaration. Though he has a good record of performance as a state governor, he’s a political paperweight at national level.

    Coming from a zone with the lowest number of elected delegates for the convention, pundits rate him low and suggest that his bid is for relevance.

     

    ROCHAS OKOROCHA

    The two-term former governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha, remains the most colourful aspirant from the Southeast. In the whole pack he is something of a serial contestant. This attempt is his fourth. He is a great philanthropist whose kind gestures spread across the country and even nations of Africa.

    Ordinarily a formidable politician, but the current face-off between him and governor of his home state, Hope Uzodinma, makes his aspiration a non-starter. He may be going to the convention without a single delegate from his home state because the governor has openly cast his lot with Lawan.

     

    UJU KENNEDY

    Her courage to play where angels fear to tread, singles out Uju Kennedy, the only female aspirant in the race for the APC presidential ticket. She may not be going any further than the media mention she has enjoyed since joining the race.

    A political neophyte, what Uju has in courage she lacks in political credentials. Not known to have occupied any political office, the lawyer turned politician may find it difficult to secure the support of both the statutory and elected delegates at the shadow election of May 29 to become Nigeria’s first female presidential aspirant.

     

    TUNDE BAKARE

    The General Overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church, Lagos, Pastor Tunde Bakare, a fierce preacher, came into the political limelight following his series of critical and down to earth sermons and the courage to speak truth to power.

    In 2011, his nomination as running mate to Buhari as then presidential candidate of the defunct Congress for Positive Change (CPC) became his major inroad to the political arena. Though qualified and competent to effectively carry out the responsibilities of the office of the president, Bakare lacks the structure and network to deliver him the ticket.

    The lawyer turned clergyman and now politician is seen more in the media than reaching out to delegates who are the determinant factors of who gets what at the primary. Though he claims he had a divine mandate of becoming the 16th President of the country, earthly delegates in Abuja are set to give him a reality check.

     

    NICHOLAS FELIX

    The presence of the youngest presidential aspirant has given a boost to the “Not Too Young To Run Act”. Though relatively unknown, Felix, a US-based pastor may have only succeeded in putting his name on the country’s political map. But for him to emerge APC candidate he would need to pull a miracle that would rate the eighth wonder in the world.

     

    KEN NNAMANI

    Former Senate President, Ken Nnamani’s, attempt at occupying the country’s highest office is seen by many as another race to nowhere. He lost his bid to become Deputy National Chairman of the party at the March 26 APC national convention of the party; many expect his presidential aspiration to suffer a similar defeat come May 28.

    Aside from the fanfare that greeted the submission of his nomination forms in Abuja, Nnamani has disappeared from the radar. Observers say the former number three man is basing his aspiration on possible zoning of the presidency to the Southeast by the party.

     

    BEN AYADE

    The emergence of Cross River State Governor, Ben Ayade, in the race for the APC ticket would not have been taken seriously but for the whopping N100 million payment for the nomination form. A man not known for frivolities, many are yet to understand his game plan.

    Some of his critics said the need to remain politically relevant may be the driving force. Having served as a senator and two-term governor, Ayade may be in the presidential race for negotiation as a possible Vice President were the zoning arrangement to favour a northern presidency, just as it has been mooted by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

     

    MOHAMMED BADARU

    Jigawa State Governor, Mohammed Badaru, is another presidential aspirant whose entry into the race is viewed with much curiousity. A member of the elite club of APC governors, he is thought to be in the race for a strategic reason – with an eye to being considered for the Vice Presidency.

    Though he has not been seen reaching out to delegates, observers in the party said he is relying on his strong network with APC governors who are in firm control of their delegates to deliver to him the party’s ticket.

    But his bid cannot be taken seriously, not just because he lacks national profile, but because of power rotation issues.

     

    SANI YERIMA

    Former Zamfara State Governor, Ahmed Sani Yerima, has been working quietly on his presidential aspiration for over two years now. He formed a support group for the actualisation of his bid.

    Though he is from the geopolitical zone as Buhari, the strong man of Zamfara politics claims he has built bridges across the nooks and crannies of the country to see him through to his dreamland.

    Yerima has vowed not to settle for anything less than the presidency, but maintained that the race is not a “do or die” issue. This is one aspiration that’s going nowhere fast.

     

    AJAYI BOROFFICE

    Senator Ajayi Borrofice, a senator from Ondo State, remains the underdog in the APC presidential race. A serving federal legislator, his entrance into the race is perceived by many as an attempt to gain prominence and relevance. His aspiration is no threat to anyone.

     

    CONCLUSION

    As things stand today, the race for the APC ticket is actually narrowing down to the following – Tinubu, Osinbajo, Amaechi and Lawan. While the former Lagos governor looks good to clinch the ticket in an open contest, the other three can only emerge victorious if the party decides to nominate its candidate by consensus, or Buhari decides to intervene in favour of a particular candidate other than Tinubu.

    However, analysts are strongly of the opinion that a Tinubu candidacy is the ruling party’s best option, one; on account of the widespread agitation for power shift from the north to the south after eight years of Buhari in office, and two; on account of his nationwide political structures and acceptance which will help the party win re-election in the presidential election proper.

    Pundits say with his firm hold on the politics of the Southwest, he is sure of giving APC majority votes in all states of the zone at the general election if he is the candidate of the party as his emergence will generate widespread enthusiasm.

    Across the different zones of the country – especially in the North – he has built a pool of goodwill by investing in the lives of all manner of people even when he had no presidential ambition. Today, that process of sowing over several decades is ready to yield an abundant harvest.

    But the strongest thing he has going for him is that of all the Southern aspirants he is the one that can be guaranteed to deliver his zone and compete on equal footing with whoever the PDP eventually throws up.

  • 2023: Who will be PDP’s presidential candidate?

    2023: Who will be PDP’s presidential candidate?

    Fifteen aspirants are jostling for the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in this week’s primary election. ‘Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, Gbade Ogunwale, Onimisi Alao, Damian Duruiheoma, Linus Oota, Bassey Anthony and Nwanosike Onu, examine their chances.

    A little over week ago, PDP ended months of speculation and finally threw open the contest for its presidential ticket to all aspirants in the race – irrespective of their geo-political zones. The decision was taken at the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting. Following the decision, consultations with stakeholders and power brokers in the party intensified.

    The NEC appointed former Senate President, David Mark, chairman of the party’s National Convention Organising Committee. Enugu Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi was named the Deputy Chairman of the Committee while a former Katsina State Governor, Ibrahim Shema, is Secretary. The committee is charged with the responsibility of organising the primaries slated for May 28-29.

    Seventeen chieftains of the opposition party paid N41million to obtain the expression of interest and nomination forms. Upon the closure of the sales of the forms, the party proceeded to screen the aspirants. The presidential screening committee of the party headed by Senator David Mark attended to all the aspirants, and at the end of the process, 15 of them were cleared while two were disqualified from the race.

    Those who appeared before the screening committee include former Vice President, Abubakar Atiku, two former Senate Presidents, Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim as well as Governors Aminu Tambuwal, Nyesom Wike, Bala Mohammed, Emmanuel Udom, of Sokoto, Rivers, Bauchi and Akwa Ibom States respectively.

    Others are businessman, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, former governors Peter Obi and Ayo Fayose of Anambra and Ekiti, Chief Sam Ohunabunwa, Dele Momodu, Charles Okwudili, Chikwendu Kalu, Cosmos Ndukwe and Olivia Tarela, who is the only female among the aspirants.

    The two aspirants disqualified by the committee, who also had their disqualification upheld by the party’s appeal panel earlier this month are former lawmaker, Cosmas Ndukwe, and a US-based medical doctor, Nwachukwu Anakwenze.

    With the decision of the party to discard its tradition of zoning, many pundits are quick to predict that the race for the ticket will be a four-cornered fight between Atiku, Wike, Saraki and Tambuwal. They argue that these four aspirants have done the most work towards canvassing for support of party leaders and delegates in past months.

    In spite of growing indications that the party’s leadership may have resolved to produce a northern presidential candidate owing to its belief that it can only unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) with a candidate from the north, Wike who has emerged as the leading aspirant from the South, is still rated as someone who can pull a surprise and alter the party’s plan during the primary.

    To emerge as candidate, the aspirants have to garner the most votes from delegates from the various states of the federation. So how are the aspirants faring in their quest for votes?

     

    ATIKU ABUBAKAR                                                            

    Former Vice President Atiku is widely perceived to be the leading aspirant in the race. This old political horse and perennial presidential contender still looms large in the country’s political terrain. He first launched a bid for the presidency 30 years ago. Like others, he has been going round the country to seek votes.

    A founding father of the party, he served as former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy for eight years. He was the PDP’s flagbearer in the 2019 election. He ran against and lost to incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari.

    STRENGTHS

    Through the three decades plus when he has been active in national politics, he has built an incredible political structure across the country. As a former acolyte of the late General Shehu Yar’Adua, he inherited much of his late mentor’s Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) structure.

    He is quite strong in the Northeast zone and can be expected to do well there. He may have secured the buy-in of delegates from his home state of Adamawa where the sitting PDP governor, Umar Fintiri, has openly identified with his aspiration.

    Fintiri, has long thrown his weight behind Atiku’s ambition after first appearing as if his close relationship with his Rivers State counterpart, Nyesome Wike, was going to affect his loyalty to Atiku. When Wike came to Yola about three weeks back, Fintiri received him at his office but kept out of Wike’s interaction with delegates.

    The move, some people claim, was Fintiri’s way of showing that his stand with Atiku was sure-footed. During Wike’s interaction with delegates at the Banquet Hall of Government House, he was bluntly told by the state PDP Chairman, Ahmed Tahir: “No vote for you here. We are for Atiku.” Tahir’s position was chorused by some of the delegates at the parley.

    He may also get a sizable chunk of votes from the other five states in the zone.

    Atiku stands a better chance of harvesting majority of delegate votes from Gombe State where he still enjoys the loyalty of party stakeholders and wields considerable influence in the state chapter. The fact that there is no PDP governor in the state gives him an edge there.

    His political network is similarly rooted in Taraba State where he had a good showing in the 2019 presidential primaries. Although Taraba governor, Darius Ishaku, has not openly identified with the aspiration of any of the aspirants, it is generally believed that the state delegates will vote for an aspirant from the Northeast.

    He may encounter some resistance in Borno where another aspirant, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen comes from. Yobe State which has no aspirant in the race, may also give him some votes. The case may be different in Bauchi whose governor, Bala Mohammed, is in the contest. Atiku is also expected to do well in some Southwest states.

    His chances are bright in Ondo with former PDP gubernatorial candidate in 2020, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede, coordinating his campaign. Jegede is a longstanding political associate of the ex-VP. However, a former Ondo governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, might split the votes with Jegede. Mimiko has identified with the agitation for power shift to the South and he is likely to support one of the aspirants from the region.

    Osun is likely to go for Atiku if the body language of former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola is anything to go by. Oyinlola is believed to be favourably disposed to his aspiration. But he will have to do a lot to deliver the state to Atiku given the current stance of the factions within the party.

    Atiku’s votes in the South East may shrink considerably from his 2019 haul. Governors Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi respectively, are supporting Wike and delegates from the two states will obviously go with their governors. Ebonyi State delegates may vote for one of their own, Senator Pius Anyim, who is also contesting.

    While it would be expected that most of the delegates from Anambra will vote for Mr. Peter Obi who is widely adjudged to have performed creditably well in his eight years tenure as governor of the state, Atiku enjoys the sympathy of some of the delegates because of the supports of chieftains like Senator Ben Ndi Obi, who has been a long-time ally of the former Vice President.

    A good number of Imo state delegates are believed to be supporting Wike, with the PDP National Secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, leading them. On the other hand, former governor, Emeka Ihedioha, is in the camp of Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal.

    With Tambuwal in the race, the Northwest may prove quite tricky for Atiku. Many of the seven states in the zone may go for the Sokoto governor. In Zamfara, the votes will be split between him and the former Vice President.

    Jigawa state delegates are likely to be led by Alhaji Sule Lamido to vote Atiku. Lamido, who was a former governor of the state, has always been Atiku’s political ally since the formation of the PDP in 1998. Votes from Kano State are likely to be split between between Atiku and Tambuwal. The two aspirants will likewise slug it out in Kebbi where there is no sitting PDP governor. Majority votes from Kaduna and Katsina may be won by Atiku who still has political structures in the two states.

    Atiku may also harvest considerable number of votes from three of the six states in the North Central zone. The states are Niger, Plateau and Kogi. He is going to have it tough in Benue where Governor Samuel Ortom is backing Wike’s aspiration. Benue delegates will file behind their governor. On the other hand, Kwara State is a no-go area as Saraki will pocket all the votes.

    The strength of Atiku in Nasarawa today, compared to what it was in 2019, has diminished considerably. Many of the party chieftains who were with him are now backing other aspirants. However, he still has the support of the state party chairman, Hon. Francis Orogu. But the 2019 governorship candidate of the party, David Umbugadu, who is also contesting the party’s ticket again, is no longer with Atiku as he is backing Wike.

    One of the major strengths of Atiku is that as successful businessman, he has deep pockets to carry the financial demands of a presidential bid.

    WEAKNESSES

    Ever since he made his intention to run known again, the former VP has been criticized as being too old. He has brushed this off by insisting that he’s in robust good health.

    He has also been hammered by those who are less than impressed with his habitual party-hopping, skipping from platform to platform in pursuit of his presidential ambition. Wike has made this a campaign issue, arguing that those who defected from PDP in 2015 helped enthrone APC and the Buhari and shouldn’t be rewarded.

    Some point out though that the Rivers governor is being hypocritical in his criticism of his rival given that in 2019 he backed Tambuwal who also defected to APC seven years ago.

    But what should worry the Turaki Adamawa more is the fact that most governors of his party are not favourably disposed to him becoming the party’s candidate. They may yet band together to install someone from within their ranks.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    Atiku enjoys name recognition nationwide having been around for a long time. He will certainly do well up, but he’s no Buhari. He and the president are totally different political phenomena. Any suggestion that he has 12 million votes locked somewhere in the North is a pipe dream. It would interest readers to know that electoral victory even in his local Adamawa isn’t guaranteed. After all, he has lost on a number of occasions to the president in his home base.

    Things get tricky for him down South. He should get ready to offer angry voters a plausible explanation whether it is equitable for another Northerner to govern after Buhari’s eight-year tenure. This could very well turn out to be the Achilles Heel of his campaign this time around as sentiments across the South is strongly for power shift.

     

    NYESOM WIKE                                                                                                    

    The Rivers State governor is another strong contender in the race. He has covered quite some ground and is still crisscrossing the country selling his candidacy to stakeholders and would-be delegates. He prides himself as the only aspirant who had never left the PDP since 1999. He was elected as a two-term Chairman of Obio Akpor Local Government Area from 1999 to 2007. He was appointed Minister in July 2011.

    He resigned before finishing his term to campaign for governor of Rivers State. He won the election and was re-elected in 2019. He has emerged as the frontrunner among aspirants from the south. According to his campaign team, he has been to almost every state of the country to canvass for votes. He is also the most talked about aspirant as at today.

    STRENGTHS

    Many political observers expect him to pull a surprise at the primary election, especially on the strength of the pro-zoning agitation within the party which he championed. He has been combative in approach with his characteristic caustic harangues that sometimes benumb his listeners. Nevertheless, he has succeeded in spreading his campaign across a large swathe of the political boundaries within the short time he joined the race.

    A fierce agitator for power shift to the South, Wike has put up a good fight in the journey so far. His aspiration has received strong support in the South-South, Southeast and Southwest. In the South-South, he has Rivers votes in his breast pocket, with a fair share of delegate votes expected from Edo State. His unending face-off with Governor Godwin Obaseki will definitely affect him but he has state chairman, Dan Orbih, on ground to make things happen for him in the state.

    He may also share the votes from Delta with Atiku. He is practically in charge in Cross River where the sitting governor defected to the APC a few months ago. Akwa Ibom is a no-go area for him as Governor Udom Emmanuel is also in the race.

    He may secure some votes from Bayelsa, though not in any significant number because of his frosty relationship with ex-Governor Seriake Dickson who may be pro-Atiku. The sitting Bayelsa governor may also not be disposed to backing Wike because the Rivers governor did not support his 2019 governorship aspiration.

    He will likely sweep the votes from two states in the Southeast, Abia and Enugu as the governors are backing him. It will not come as a surprise to observers to see the Enugu delegates giving their votes to the Wike. He is believed to be a close associate of Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi who led Wike’s presidential campaigns to some states.

    Considering the voting pattern of Enugu State PDP over the years which had always been a block or group decision, the situation may not change anytime soon. A party stalwart told our correspondent that Enugu delegates are likely to vote for Wike because of his relationship with the Enugu State governor.

    Imo will also give him some votes, courtesy of the PDP National Secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, who is a strong ally in the state. The Rivers State governor is also being supported by the godfather of Anambra politics, Chief Chris Uba, who is also a delegate and has his loyalists among the delegates. Another PDP chieftain in Anambra who has strong affinity with Wike is the federal lawmaker representing Ogbaru Federal Constituency, Hon. Chu Chu Onyema.

    Delegates from the remaining two states – Anambra and Ebonyi – may not give much of their vote to Wike. Peter Obi and Senator Pius Anyim are from the states and are also in the race.

    In the Southwest, Oyo and Ekiti will give Wike their votes. While Governor Seyi Makinde is holding forth for him in Oyo, former governor Ayo Fayose is rallying the delegates in Ekiti for the Rivers governor. If Chief Bode George should have his way, Lagos delegates won’t vote for Wike. Unfortunately, his grip on the state chapter of the party is not what it used to be as the younger elements are said to be more willing to defer to Makinde.

    In Ondo state, the camp of an ex-governor, Olusegun Mimiko, is believed to be favourably disposed to Wike’s aspiration.

    Ogun State delegates are likely to allow Mr. Ladi Adebutu to lead the way. Adebutu is a strong contender for the 2023 governorship race. He is an ally of Fayose’s, as such Wike looks really good in the state.

    In Osun, Oyinlola will most likely pay the Rivers man back for frustrating his bid to become the PDP national chairman during the last convention. But there are indications that supporters of Ademola Adeleke, the party’s governorship candidate, may cast their votes for Wike.

    WEAKNESSES

    But Wike’s aspiration appears not to be well received in many parts of the North.

    Besides, Benue State where Governor Samuel Ortom is supporting him, his chances in other states are not that bright. But he is expected to get votes in Nasarawa State where the 2019 guber candidate of the PDP, David Umbugadu, a former ally of Atiku’s, is backing him for the presidential ticket. It is believed that his supporters who are delegates will vote Wike who is rumoured to be funding his governorship campaign.

    Also, his hard line pro South posture on national issues has not endeared him to stakeholders in the Northeast and the Northwest zones. In effect, the bulk of Wike’s votes will come from the South. He will also make a good showing in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Philip Aduda, the only senator representing the territory, has been aggressive in rallying support for him. Wike will be running shoulder to shoulder with Atiku at the primaries.

    Another weakness is the perception that he’s not presidential given his raw and combative nature. He appears not to have heard of diplomacy and this offends many party stakeholders.

     

    BUKOLA SARAKI

    Saraki is a former two-term governor of Kwara State who also served as Senate President till 2019. He was proposed alongside another aspirant as northern consensus candidates by the Northern Elders Forum. The decision is still generating controversy within the party. He had contested for the same position in 2019 but lost out in the primaries. He served as the Director General of Atiku’s campaign in 2019.

    His critics within and outside the party however say he is no longer the political giant he used to be when he was the strongman of Kwara politics, following the loss of the state to the APC in 2019.

    STRENGTHS

    Saraki will win the chunk of the votes from Kwara and do very well in other North Central states at the primary election. His performances in other states, especially in the Northwest and Southwest will determine how far he can go.

    He’s likely to get some votes in Kogi and Niger States. He will also do well in Nasarawa where the likes of former Senators Suleiman Adoke and Solomon Ewuga as well as former Deputy Governor, John Mike Abdul, who command large followership among the delegates from the state, are leading members of his campaign team.

    Most of PDP stakeholders in the state believe in the North Central agenda and have aligned themselves with the candidature of Senator Saraki. He is expected to share the votes in Plateau State with other leading aspirants. He may not get votes from Benue where Wike is a beautiful bride. Similarly, he does not have strong support base in the seven states in the Northwest and the six in the Northeast.

    However, he may end up inheriting delegates from Bauchi State from Governor Bala Mohammed who may pull out of the race any time before the primaries. Bala will likely abandon the race for his governorship re-election.

    He was picked by Northern Elders along with the Bauchi governors as the North’s consensus picks for the PDP ticket. Although that plan foundered, it was the latest evidence that party grandees – especially the retired generals are backing him.

    Saraki’s claim to being a bridge between the North and the South is a major selling point at a point when feelings are raw over disagreements on zoning within the party.

    He is seen as bold and independent-minded. Many remember how he outflanked the APC to snatch the Senate Presidency in 2015. He would go on to lead a National Assembly that kept the Executive on its toes for the period he led it.

    WEAKNESSES

    What he projects as strength is also seen as a weakness by many. Is he North or South? This identity crisis could be a turn off for some. He has also lost his Kwara fortress and may find it tough to recover in the short term.

     

    PETER OBI

    This former governor of Anambra State has not been controversial in his entire political career. However, the nature of Nigerian politics, which is hinged on ethnicity and religion, may blight his aspiration. Few will be surprised if Obi ends up struggling for delegate votes from his state.

    STRENGTHS

    He is seen as a clean politician who is not encumbered by issues of graft. Indeed, his boast for many years was the huge amount of money he left in the state treasury for his successor. A successful businessman, Obi is seen as someone who can potentially be a good manager of the economy. He is thrifty with funds and vowed not to throw money at delegates as he went around for consultations.

    WEAKNESSES

    The only strongest home supporter Obi has in his presidential pursuit is Senator Uche Ekwunife. His chance of having the votes of Anambra delegates is very slim as the Senator representing Anambra South senatorial zone, Stella Oduah, The Nation gathered, has equally pitched her tent with Anyim. Other party leaders in the state are also backing other aspirants aside Obi.

    Also, the former governor does not have political structures in any of the six geopolitical zones. He may not go far in the primaries but he would have succeeded in registering the quality of his thoughts and ideas in the consciousness of many Nigerians. The segments of the public who recognises his leadership qualities and who would have given him their endorsements are not among the delegates that will vote at the primaries. The odds appear heavily stacked against him.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    His prospects are not very bright as his appeal appears limited to the Southeast.

     

    AMINU TAMBUWAL

    The 56-year-old politician is on the last lap of his eight-year tenure as governor of Sokoto State. He first contested for the PDP presidential ticket in 2019 but came second to Atiku in the primary election. Pundits say his chances are not as bright as they were during the last attempt owing to certain developments within and outside the party.

    He was adjudged one of the favourites in the race at the very beginning but his ratings plummeted following the declaration of Wike. The Rivers governor was no doubt one of the strong pillars behind Tambuwal’s 2019 presidential aspiration which saw him coming a close second to Atiku. Wike’s aspiration obviously hurt the chances of Tambuwal this time around.

    STRENGTHS

    One major strength is his experience in the Executive branch as governor and in the Legislature as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

    Presently chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, Tambuwal’s aspiration has received tremendous support from stakeholders in a number of states in the Northwest, being the only PDP governor in the entire seven states in the zone. Outside Sokoto, Tambuwal has remained a strong force in four other states in the zone. The states include Kebbi, Zamfara, Kaduna and Katsina where he enjoys considerable goodwill among PDP stakeholders in the chapters.

    It is expected that a good number of delegates from the four states will swell Tambuwal’s Sokoto votes. He has a strong ally in Tanimu Turaki, a former Special Duties Minister, who has been a rallying point for him in Kebbi.

    WEAKNESSES

    However, his chances appear quite slim in zones outside the Northwest. Atiku and Wike will share the votes in the Southwest. The two aspirants will also share the votes in the North Central with Saraki.

    In the Southeast, Wike, Obi and Anyim are going to have majority of the delegates, while Tambuwal struggles to share delegates in Imo and Anambra States owing to the support he enjoys from his former governor Ihedioha.

    The Northeast votes will be cornered mainly by Atiku. The votes from the South-South will be shared between Wike and Atiku. In terms of temperament and world outlook, Tambuwal cuts a near perfect fit for the job. But his chances of winning the ticket appear quite slim.

    A further negative for him is the fact that Wike has made very telling points as to why those who defected to APC in 2015 shouldn’t be rewarded with the PDP ticket. His campaign so far doesn’t seem to have traction with party members.

     

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    His prospects are not bright as it hard to see how he will ignite enthusiasm across the South after going against the power shift agitation.

     

    MOHAMMED HAYATU-DEEN

    He is Chairman of the Renaissance Development Forum. He is an experienced banker, economist, project finance executive, administrator, and elder statesman with about forty years’ experience across multiple Nigerian industries. The Borno state-born Shuwa Arab has surprised many with the zeal with which he has pursued his presidential aspiration. He is among those cleared to contest the primary election of the PDP but many pundits say he may not make much impact largely because he is relatively new to partisan politics.

    STRENGTHS

    The renowned investment banker and financial expert was hardly a known name in Nigerian politics. He registered his presence late January when he revalidated his membership of the PDP in Maiduguri, Borno State, where he comes from. Hayatu-Deen had told journalists on the day that he was not going to seek for any elective office, only to announce his interest in the presidential race two months later.

    He is well respected within and outside political circles back home and he is likely to get a good chunk of delegate votes from Borno if other factors don’t work against him. Considering the array of more experienced and career politicians jostling for the ticket, the race, obviously, isn’t Hayatu-Deen’s. There are speculations that the economist may team up with one of the leading aspirants soon.

     

    ANYIM PIUS ANYIM

    STRENGTHS

    Former President of the Senate and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Anyim Pius Anyim, is an insider who understands how government works. He has experience leading the Legislature and has also tasted life at the highest levels in the Executive.

    He was an early joiner in the race. He has moved round to canvass for votes but pundits say he is not entrenched in the politics of the opposition party enough to pull any surprise at the primary election. He will garner some votes in the Southeast on the strength of the agitation for power shift but may not do much outside his zone.

     

    WEAKNESSES

    He joined the race apparently in the hope that the ticket was going to be zoned to the Southeast. The Ebonyi-born politician along with other aspirants from the Southeast, have been soliciting support from stakeholders across the geopolitical zones in the past few weeks. Outside Ebonyi where he comes from, Anyim also, may not secure any significant votes from the Southeast.

    The two governors from the zone backing another aspirant from the South-South, will certainly deplete Anyim’s votes at the primaries. His campaign does not appear to have received the needed boost his part of the country. He does not have any structure outside Igboland to draw support from. Anyim and other aspirants from the Southeast may as well be in the race to prove a point that it’s high time Nigerians recognised the aspiration of the Igbo to political leadership in the country.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    Not likely to be PDP candidate

     

    BALA MOHAMMED

    STRENGTHS

    The Bauchi State governor is an amiable personality with friends and contacts across the country. He is a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). He is one of the very first to declare his presidential bid. He emerged as an unexpected pick as one of the two consensus candidates from the north by NEF. Sources close to him say he is toying with the possibility of picking the PDP presidential ticket while still gunning for re-election as governor. This distraction may be the reason for his lackluster campaign.

    WEAKNESSES

    He appears to be taking a gamble with his presidential aspiration. His governorship re-election is his core project as he is expected to withdraw from the race at his convenience. However, his presence in the race has given him a great deal of visibility nationwide, which may count for him in future political pursuits. Bala has not admitted or denied media reports that he also purchased the governorship nomination form.

    But he has hinted at having a “Plan B” in one of his public statements without disclosing his alternative plan. He may withdraw for Saraki with whom he embarked on the now discarded consensus journey a few weeks back. At best, he will pick votes of delegates in his state and manage to garner some more from neighbourng Gombe state and the FCT if he decides to contest the presidential primary election of the PDP.

    GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

    Not likely to be the candidate

     

    UDOM EMMANUEL

    Udom Emmanuel, the two-term governor of Akwa Ibom State is a surprise inclusion in the race for the PDP presidential ticket. He didn’t do much to project his aspiration outside his home state. This will work against him. Talk is rife that he is actually interested in the vice presidential slot. Beyond winning the votes of delegates from his state, he may not do much.

    Some have observed that he is in the race to project himself and to remain politically relevant post-2023. He is also rumoured to have obtained senatorial nomination form as second option.

     

    SAM OHUABUNWA

    He is immediate past president of the Nigerian Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria. Ohuabunwa, 71, declared for the presidential race quite early, precisely in November 2021. Analysts say he may have entered the race on the strength of the agitation for power to be ceded to the Southeast in 2023.

    But he is not known to have done much beyond his zone to advance his presidential aspiration. To many observers, the businessman turned politician is not likely to make much impact at the primary election.

     

    AYO FAYOSE

    With Governor Fayose in the race, he would have been expected to have all the delegates in Ekiti State to his name because he has the party structure in his pocket. Since his declaration, he has yet to catch the sort of attention expected to underscore his commitment and seriousness. Unlike other aspirants in the contest, he is not crisscrossing the country to solicit delegates’ supports but only playing host to his co-contestants.

    If Fayose chickens out of the race, Wike will inherit his huge votes because it is believed they are working in alliance. But Atiku cannot be brushed aside as he enjoys the backing of some stakeholders in the party who are statutory delegates. It is still unclear which aspirant Senator Biodun Olujimi who has been a hard nut to crack for Fayose will support but it is believed she would support an aspirant that will promote her interest and that of her supporters.

    PDP leaders in her camp include, the former acting governor, Tunji Odeyemi, PDP Southwest Publicity Secretary, Chief Sanya Atofarati, Ex-PDP state chairman, Gboyega Oguntuase, former House of Representatives member, Chief Titi Akindahunsi, among others. The former Ekiti State Governor may have joined the race to assert his constitutional right.

     

    DELE MOMODU

    This 61-year-old media guru and socialite is known to harbour big dreams. According to him, he is in the race to make all the difference. In his public engagements, the flamboyant publisher of Ovation Magazine has continued to dismiss the core politicians in the race as those responsible for the sorry state of affairs in the country. Momodu has no political structure anywhere in the country. Many consider him a showman in the race.

    The remaining three aspirants – Charles Ugwu, Chikwendu Kalu and Tariele Diana Oliver, are quite sure of winning their own votes. That is if they don’t step down for other aspirants before the primary election proper.

    While the debate continues over the actual motive of these three aspirants in the presidential race, many pundits have concluded that the barely known politician must have decided to support the quest for the opposition PDP to return to Aso Rock with their finance by purchasing the presidential nomination forms. None of them have bothered to canvass for votes from delegates from any state of the country.

    CONCLUSION

    The presidential primaries may turn out to be a four-horse race involving Atiku, Wike, Tambuwal and Saraki. With the dynamics of the race altered by the delay in signing the amended Electoral Act – something that strengthens the hands of the governors – all bets may be off if at some point to reach common ground on who to back.

  • 2023: Senate, House tickets unsettles APC, PDP in Osun

    2023: Senate, House tickets unsettles APC, PDP in Osun

    Ahead of the 2023 general election, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Osun State are enmesh in crisis over National Assembly tickets. The two leading parties in the state are currently battling internal wrangling over National Assembly tickets in some parts of the state. Within APC, the ticket for House of Representatives seat for Osogbo/Olorunda/Orolu and Irepodun Federal Constituency remains one of the major contests that have thrown members into disarray with allegations of poor performance trailing the incumbent.

    The current lawmaker representing Osogbo Federal Constituency, Bukola Oyewo, is seeking a return ticket amidst protests from members of APC especially in his hometown, Ilobu. They accuse him of not living up to their expectations in the last three years. A group in Osogbo Federal Constituency, named Osun Progressive Women Forum (OPWOF) appealed to all leaders and stakeholders APC to cede the ticket of the constituent to a female aspirant.

    The coordinator of the group, Mrs. Joel Omolara, said, “We are tired of the current misrepresentation of the constituent at the House of Representatives. We are begging all our esteem leaders in Osogbo Federal Constituency to please give us female candidate to represent us at the National Assembly, we have suffered and still suffering; we want a representative that can deliver dividends of democracy like Hon. Taiwo Oluga and few others.”

    Similarly, the APC leadership in Irepodun and Orolu urged the State leadership of the party not to return the incumbent lawmaker nor take the ticket from the two local governments.  The Secretary of the Federal constituency, Abayomi Oyedeji, said “as equal partners and integral part of the Federal Constituency, we abide by the 2018 zoning arrangement of the two elected positions in the Federal Constituency. We support the zoning of the Senate to either Osogbo Local Government Area or Olorunda Local Government Area and the zoning of member representing the Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives to either Irepodun or Orolu Local Government Area to ensure justice, fairness and equity.”

    This agitation for a change of representative broadened the contest within the progressives fold. A female aspirant, Abosede Ogo-Oluwakitan, have shown interest in vying for the ticket but the Osogbo local government is pushing their own son to get the ticket. Osogbo, having the highest numbers of voters in the state, is insisting that the current Commissioner for Regional Integration, Engr. Olalekan Badmus, should be giving the ticket.

    Badmus who is a son of prominent farmer and philanthropist in Osogbo, Tunde Badmus, was formerly an aide of former Deputy Speaker, House of Rep, Lasun Yusuf. He also played prominent role in election of Osun Central Senator, Ajibola Bashir, in 2019 before he was appointed as Commissioner by Governor Gboyega Oyetola. He is one of the most popular politicians in the constituency because he contested for the ticket in 2019 but party consensus worked against him.

    Since his appointment, he has penetrated the grassroots of Osogbo riding on the wings of his father’s deeds and the voting strength of Osogbo local government as the highest in the state. However, Badmus has not signified interest to contest for the party ticket but Ogo-Oluwakitan is all out in contesting for the ticket.

    Ogo-oluwakitan who is a foremost entrepreneur, while declaring her aspiration, said, “as a philanthropist, I derived a lot of joy in putting smiles on the faces of people, and it has been part of me for a very long time, and my believe is that politics is all about selfless services to humanity and delivering dividends of democracy to the people and people alone.

     

    Senate seats

    It was gathered that the former deputy governor during Rauf Aregbesola administration, Titi Laoye Ponle, wants to get the ticket of Senate against the interest of the incumbent, Senator Ajibola Bashir.  But there is a clear indication that Senator Bashir will clinch the party ticket because of his popularity and street credibility in the senatorial district.

    The decision of APC to zone the ticket of Osun West Senatorial District to Iwo community is generating protests within the party. There is pressure on the leadership of the party to zone the ticket to Ejigbo, Ede or Ikire in Ayedaade Local Government Area. The leadership of the party through its chairman, Gbenga Omolaoye, during stakeholders meeting, announced that the ticket of the senatorial district has been zone to Iwo, Iwo Local Government Area of the state, the home town of the current Senator, Adelere Oriolowo.

    The announcement prompted members to attempt attacking the district party executive but was prevented. Some arty members from other local government areas in the district urged the leadership of the party to denied Senator Oriolowo because he belongs to the Rauf Aregbesola faction and lack quality representation. But, Senator Oriolowo has openly denied belonging to any faction within the party.

    Aspirants contesting for the senatorial tickets of Osun West includes; Osun State Coordinator of SWAGA, Ayo Omidiran, Commissioner of Water Resources, Raheem Tadese, Commissioner for Human Resources, Latifat Giwa and retired General Lekan Adeniran. Speaking on the development, the convener of a socio-political group, Osun West Youth and Women Forum (OWYWF), Comrade Olalekan Ojasope decried the decision of the elders of the party in the zone saying such decision might affect the results of the coming gubernatorial election in the area.

    Governor Adegboyega Oyetola has not show any interest in any aspirant for the National Assembly tickets because of his re-election in July 16, 2022, but the political gladiators in the state have been pushing him to understand his body language about 2023 elective positions. Meanwhile, Oyetola vowed that there is no automatic ticket for any aspirant vying for National Assembly seat in 2023.

    He said, “I know the activities of some members of APC who have divided loyalty. Government knows everything but this is not the right time to talk. No automatic ticket for aspirants. Those people will be put to shame in the open. But I implore you to vote for me come July 16th 2022 so that our party can defeat other parties.”

     

    PDP NASS tickets

    The opposition party, PDP is under pressure from the ongoing struggle for its legislative tickets across the state, especially in the Senate in the three senatorial districts of Osun State. The camp of factional governorship candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Ademola is currently witnessing a crack ahead of the National Assembly primary. In Osun Central, former party chairman, Gani Ola-Oluwa,  ex-PDP guber aspirant, Senator Felix Ogunwale and Adekunle Alao are in fierce battle to get the ticket of the district for 2023 General Election.

    Similarly, in Osun West, there is a tussle between former member of House of Representatives, Lere Oyewumi and former Director General of Omisore Campaign Organisation, Peter Babalola, over the ticket of the district. Though the two big wigs belong to the PDP faction of Senator Ademola Adeleke, the deep seated animosity over the Osun West Senatorial ticket is glaring to the point that the elders of the party are calling for calm.

    In Osun East Senatorial district, former member of House of Representatives, Gbenga Onigboji is contesting the ticket of the party against the incumbent Senator, Francis Fadahunsi. Meanwhile, Adeleke has insisted that he does not have anointed aspirant to clinch the tickets for seats of State House of Assembly, House of Representatives and Senate.

    A statement by the factional guber candidate through his media aide Olawale Rasheed also stressed that Adeleke has no preferred candidates. “On the National Assembly election, Senator Ademola Adeleke and his family have no preferred or anointed aspirant. The party’s guideline for candidate selection is clear and Senator Adeleke has repeated severally that he has no endorsed aspirant. The party delegates are to decide the eventual flag bearers for the National Assembly offices.”

  • 2023: The aspirants, issues  in Katsina senate races

    2023: The aspirants, issues in Katsina senate races

    As the race for the 2023 senatorial seats gets heated up in Katsina State, political observers have been examining the contenders and the issues likely to determine the outcomes of the elections as well as the chances of the various political parties.

    Going by the outcome of the 2019 general elections, it is safe to say Katsina state is one of APC’s strong bases. Aside from being the home state of President Muhammadu Buhari, both the President and Governor Aminu Bello Masari, who ran as candidates of the ruling party during the election, won in the state by wide margins. To further prove the wide acceptance of the APC in the state, every single seat in the senate, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly chambers for the state, were won by APC candidates.

    The APC by that spectacular performance sent the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which had ruled the state from 1999 until 2015 when Masari and APC toppled it, into political oblivion in most parts of the state.

    Last month, the ruling APC strengthened its hold on the politics of the state as the Katsina State Independent Electoral Commission declared its candidates as winners in 31 councils announced by the umpire. The state has 34 councils. KASIEC Executive Secretary, Lawal Faskari, while announcing APC candidates as winners early Tuesday morning, disclosed that the results of two councils, namely Daura and Funtua were pending.

    He added that the election processes in Dutsin-ma Local Government Area were stopped following alleged irregularities and crisis. Reacting to the outcome of the council polls, the PDP in the state on Tuesday said it would seek legal redress over the Katsina State Local Government election results won by the All Progressives Congress. Observers of the politics of the state however said the PDP needs to put its house in order ahead of the 2023 general election if it intends to return to winning ways in the state.

     

    The contest

    The APC and the PDP are the two leading political parties in Katsina state, though there are other political parties in the state. The contest for the national assembly seats across the state is obviously between the ruling APC and the opposition PDP as usual. However, pundits say there may be upsets in a couple of constituencies, especially where the two leading parties fail to resolves crises emanating from the selection of candidates and other issues.

    Within the APC, there are fears that the outcome of the ongoing tussle to succeed Governor Bello Masari by his close allies and aides may determine the chances of the party in some parts of the state. ‘We are praying hard that the issue will be resolved amicably, otherwise, we are already hearing of plans of defection and anti party activities by some of the aggrieved persons,” a party source said.

    The ruling party is currently troubled because many associates of the outgoing governor, Masari, have indicated interest to succeed him. In spite of claims that Masari has given indications that he favours a particular aspirant as the candidate of the APC for the 2023 gubernatorial elections, not less than five of his allies and aides went ahead to obtain the nomination forms.

    The Nation even heard that that the leadership of the ruling party attempted to prevail on the aspirants to support the alleged choice of the governor all to no avail, a development many see as posing the toughest political test yet for both the APC and the governor. “Efforts are on to manage the situation. We are one big family in APC here in Katsina state. And like I usually tell you, Governor Masari is like a father to most of us. That is why it is never difficult to resolve any crisis among us,’ a serving commissioner in the state told our correspondent.

    Among those who have bought nomination and express of interest forms to contest for the governorship ticket of the APC are the immediate former Secretary to the State Government, Mustapha Inuwa; the deputy governor, Mannir Yakubu; the immediate former Budget and Economic Planning Commissioner, Faruk Jobe; the immediate pasy Managing Director of Federal Mortgage Bank, Ahmed Dangiwa, and the Director-General of Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency (SMEDAN), Dikko Radda.

    Funny enough, the same fears being expressed in the ruling party appears to have gripped the leading opposition party, the PDP as its chieftains continue a lingering battle for its soul, now heightened by the struggle for the gubernatorial ticket of the party in the state. According to party sources, party leaders are spending more time to extract commitment from the gubernatorial aspirants not to dump the party or work against its candidates across the state in event they fail to clinch the guber ticket. “But many of them are already alleging that the processes are being skewed against them amidst rumours of what they plan to do after the primary elections,” a party source claimed.

    PDP chieftains who purchased the party’s N21 million expression of interest and nomination forms in their bid to govern the state, include Senator Yakubu Lado Danmarke, Hon. Salisu Yusuf Majigiri, Shehu Inuwa Imam and Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua. Not a few analysts have opined that the outcome of the gubernatorial primary election of the party will have a lot to do with the performances of all its candidates across the state, including those seeking the three senatorial seats.

     

    APC senatorial aspirants

    The incumbent APC senators in the state looks good to clinch the tickets of the ruling party for a return to the red chamber in 2023 as no new aspirant from the party in the state has come forward to declare interest or canvas support in order to upstage the incumbent senators in the state.

    More attention appears to be on the gubernatorial race in the state. Thus, incumbent senators of the APC may be coasting home for re-elections. Speculations are rife that Senators Bello Mandiya of Katsina South and Kabir Barkiya of Katsina Central may have been settled with return tickets to the national assembly by the ruling party.

    The Senator from Katsina North, Ahmed Baba Kaita, who reportedly decamped to the PDP from where he intends to contest the Katsina North senatorial positions in 2023, is no longer in consideration and the party is finding a capable replacement  for him.

    The Nation was reliably informed that a governorship aspirant who also hailed from the same Katsina North Senatorial zone like Senator Baba Kaita might be asked to switch to the senatorial contest for Katsina North zone should he fail to grab the guber ticket

    A senior member of the state government, who pleaded anonymity, while trying to explain Kaita’s defection, told The Nation that the Senator left the APC largely due to his increasing political differences with Governor Masari which led to numerous allegations of anti party activities being leveled against him.

    Also the inability of President Muhammad Buhari to wade into the crisis between the governor and Senator Kaita, despite the fact that the Senator hails from his Daura hometown, were some other reasons why the senator decamped to PDP.

    Kaita, who was a member of the House of Representatives under the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the Kankia/Ingawa/Kusada constituency of Katsina State, in 2011, currently represents the senatorial district of President Muhammad Buhari in the 9th Senate.

    The Nation gathered that the Senator had first met behind closed-doors with the state PDP leader and former Governor of the state, Ibrahim Shehu Shema, in Abuja before joining the party. PDP bigwigs, who attended the meeting held at Shema’s office included the PDP governorship aspirant, Salisu Yusuf Majigiri; the 2015 PDP governorship running mate to Musa Nashuni, Gambo Bakori; former state Chairman of Association of Local Government of Nigeria (ALGON), Hon. Ibrahim Lawal Dankaba, state PDP Youths leader, and Hamza Jibia, among others.

     

    PDP senatorial aspirants

    Senatorial aspirants from the PDP platform include: Senator Ahmed Baba Lawal Kaita, for Katsina North Senatorial Zone and Garba Shehu Matazu, a former member of the House of Representative for Katsina South Senatorial Zone. Also in the senatorial race for PDP are Hajia Aisha Isa Katsina, Hamisu Lawal Dambo and Suraji Makari.

    The Nation gathered that the senatorial ticket of the PDP for Katsina North senatorial district may have been ceded to Senator Kaita as part of the deal that saw him quit the ruling APC to join the PDP. Party sources claim the senatorial ticket was part of the discussion held in Abuja between the Senator and former governor Shema. “Kaita will get the PDP ticket to contest the next election in Katsina North. That has been concluded,” a source claimed.

  • Kaduna: APC,  PDP in familiar  battles over  Senate seats

    Kaduna: APC, PDP in familiar battles over Senate seats

    While it appears like both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have agreed to share the North and South Senatorial seats, they seem to be in serious battle of supremacy for the Kaduna Central Senatorial seat. Though, the Kaduna Central Senatorial seat is currently occupied by the APC’s Senator Uba Sani, the opposition party is seriously warning up to seize the seat for the ruling party. The seat in contention is not only as important as the governorship contest to the both party, it appears to be the major determinant of the most popular party in the state.

    The PDP has since the return of democracy in 1999 retained the Senate seat and most National and state assembly seats in the Kaduna South Senatorial District, while the APC has been calling the shot in the North and Central Districts since its inception in 2015. But the contest for the central Senate seat has always been keenly contested being that, it is the metropolitan constituency whose most electorate is largely enlightened.

    Just like the case is with the PDP in Kaduna North, the ruling party is not making very serious attempt at snatching the senate seat from the opposition in Kaduna South. Unlike, the 2019 election when APC deployed one of its very best in person of the late former Deputy Governor, Arch. Barnabas Bala Bantex to slug it out with the incumbent, Senator Danjuma La’ah, there has not been any strong APC aspirant for the Kaduna South senate seat.

    Though, there are feelers that, top APC stakeholders were planning to drag the founder of Nok University, Tony Hassan, into the contest, a clear indication that, the ruling party may have resigned to fate or agreed with the popular belief that, PDP is stronger in Kaduna South District, is the fact that, a chairman of a minority local government in the Southern part of Kaduna is now warming up to contest the seat.

    What may however make a difference in the 2023 and give APC brighter chance is the crisis that might come up ahead of, during and after the PDP senatorial primary, as the sitting Senator is currently having a good number of the party’s bigwigs contesting the Senate ticket with him. Prominent among them are; one time House of Representatives member and the 2019 Deputy Governorship Candidate of the PDP, Barr. Sunday Marshal Katung and one time Attorney-General of the State, Barr. Mark Jacob.

    Other aspirants for the PDP Senate ticket are; former House of Representatives member, Hon. Adams Jagaba, member representing Jaba constituency in the Kaduna State House of Assembly, Hon. Samson Monday Dikko and Member representing Jema’a/Sanga Federal Constituency in the National Assembly, Hon. Nicholas Garba Sarkin Noma.

    Considering the weight of the aforementioned aspirants, the primary election that will produce the party’s candidate might lead to crisis and if it is not properly managed, it might make the APC changes brighter in Southern Kaduna.

    The PDP has equally not shown serious resolve to win the Kaduna North Senatorial seat, which is presently occupied by Senator Suleiman Abdul Kwari, as some of the party chieftains who have the political crowd and financial war-chest to face the incumbent, are either not interested or seeking higher positions.

    Though, one Ibrahim Khalid Soba is aspiring for Kwari’s job on the platform of the PDP, it is apparent that, the opposition may have it difficult at the general poll, especially if Kwari defeats his only opponent, Turad Sani Sha’aban to clinch APC ticket for the Senate.

     

    Kaduna Central as battle ground

    Unlike the North and South where the elections are predictable, the Central Senatorial seat is seen as one of the determining factors for which party becomes the ruling party. It is assumed that, whichever party wins Kaduna Central and one other senatorial seat, will form government at the state level.

    This among other reasons is what makes the opposition battle ready to wrestle the Central Senate seat from the APC. Despite the difficulties it faced in the same mission in 2019, the PDP considers it chances brighter this time, especially with the incumbent Senator Uba Sani, seeking to succeed Governor El-Rufai as the state Governor.

    The 2019 PDP candidate, Lawal Adamu Usman popularly known as Mr. LA, who was then defeated by APC’s Uba Sani, is firing another shot at the Senate seat. The coast is not however clear for him yet, as he has to first contest the party’s ticket with one time Interim Chairman of Kaduna North Local Government, Usman Ibrahim, popularly known as Sardaunan Badarawa.

    Ibrahim who defected to the PDP from the ruling party has been very generous to the party officials and stakeholders, but whether that has won him the trust of the party chieftains to entrust him with their mandate or the party stakeholders will give Mr. LA who has been with the party and its stakeholders, is a question of time. Whichever way the pendulum swings, PDP is apparently determined to win the Senate Seat.

    The PDP’s efforts notwithstanding, APC as the ruling party will certainly not fold its arms and allow power slip off its hands. Though, it was hitherto quiet and appeared like the ruling party was no longer interested in the Central Senate Seat, the coast is now clearer for the APC on who bears the party’s flag to the general elections.

    Camps in the opposition were already jubilating the when Senator Uba Sani declared for the governorship position. They were happy that, the incumbency power of a sitting Senator, no matter how minute is a least removed from the hurdles to clinching the ticket. The opposition was even happier when it appeared like the APC bigwigs were not interested in the Senate seat, as one Hajia Rabi was the only one APC member who indicated interest in the contest.

    The game however changed immediately after the Sallah and May Day holidays. The speculations that, the Senate seat was still being reserved for Senator Uba Sani, because Governor El-Rufai had a preferred successor other than the Senator were laid to rest, as the Governor anointed Sani during a reported stakeholders meeting. The Governor at the same meeting asked one of the topmost gubernatorial aspirants, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, to step down and contest the Kaduna Central Senatorial seat.

    Abdullahi, popularly known as Dattijo, is the immediate past Commissioner of Planning and Budget, twice the Chief of Staff to Governor El-Rufai and one time policy adviser at the Executive Office of United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon in New York. Dattijo formed the core team that developed the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He resigned the UN appointment to serve under the El-Rural’s government.

    He has since accepted to run for Senate and that, for now appears like he is the consensus candidate of the APC for the Kaduna Central. The choice of Dattijo, despite his intimidating qualification and experience, does not however guarantee the success of the APC at the poll, what it does guarantee is that, the election will be an interest one to watch.

     

  • 2023: National  Assembly races  hot up in Ekiti

    2023: National Assembly races hot up in Ekiti

    In less than two weeks, political parties in Ekiti will conduct National Assembly primaries to elect their standard bearers. Observers have been looking at the legion of aspirants jostling for the seats and the issue that will shape the contest. As the races draw nearer, there has been a swirl of political activities across the length and breadth of Ekiti. The senatorial aspirants have intensified campaigns preparatory to the parties’ primaries expected to be conducted between May 20 and 25.

    The battle is mainly between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC). Aspirants from other political parties, including the Social Democratic Party (SDP), are yet to indicate interest in the contests. While some names are being touted as possible senatorial hopefuls on the platform of SDP, it is still unclear which of them will eventually plunge into the race.

    The state secretariats of the two leading parties located at Ajilosun Area of Ado-Ekiti have become beehive of political activities as aspirants take turn to visit the leadership of their parties to intimate them of their resolve to plunge into the races. Similarly, the party offices at the wards, local government and zonal offices have become Mecca of sort as the aspirants armed with their nomination forms crisscrossing the 16 local government areas to woo delegates to their sides in the light of the forthcoming primaries.

    Though the governorship poll in the state will be held on June 18, the preparation for the primary of the national assembly election has permeated the Ekiti political space. The aspirants jostling for various legislative seats across the two leading parties had abandoned the governorship campaign as they are struggling to get the tickets.

    There are three serving senators in the race. They are experienced politicians. But, they will work hard to retain their seats because new entrants are also working to dislodge them. The three senators are Senator Biodun Olujimi (PDP), Dr. Olubunmi Adetunmbi (APC) and Senator Opeyemi Bamidele (APC).

     

    Ekiti South

    The incumbent Senator representing the Ekiti South in the upper chamber, Chief (Mrs.) Biodun Olujimi from all indications, is seeking a return to the Senate for third term. The only Senator on the platform of PDP is already meeting party leaders across the six local government areas in the district. She is however not mindful of the negative impact of the division within the party on the chances of the APC in future elections.

    In the PDP, apart from Olujimi, other aspirants gunning for the ticket include the former deputy governor and close ally of Fayose, Olusola Eleka, and former member of the House of Representative, Segun Adekola. He was in the green chamber between 2015 and 2019. Going by her sterling performance and commitment to the development of PDP in Ekiti, Olujimi is well position to clinch the senatorial tickets but it appears she will have to fight hard to retain her job at the senate because Fayose is rooting for Adekola.

    In the APC, aspirants are yet to indicate interest in the race. While some names are being touted as possible senatorial hopefuls, it is still unclear which of them will eventually plunge into the Senatorial race. But, multiple sources in the party who confided in our correspondent said the current lawmaker representing Ekiti South Federal constituency 1 comprising Ekiti Southwest, Ikere and Ise/Orun local government, Hon. Yemi Adaramodu, may likely get the ticket. There are also indications that Governor Kayode Fayemi may have settled for Adaramodu as the candidate of the APC in the district.

    Adaramodu who hails from Ilawe Ekiti in Ekiti Southwest Local Governnent and has come a long way in Ekiti politics. He is presently Chairman House Committee on Youth Development. He was a media practitioner and distinguished himself as a serial award-winning cartoonist, an editor and later became Corporate Affairs Manager of African Newspapers of Nigeria (ANN) Plc, publishers of the Tribune titles before joining politics.

    Adaramodu was the Director of Fayemi Campaign Organisation until the restoration of the mandate when he became Chief of Staff to the Governor during Fayemi’s first tenure and wielded enormous powers and influence to the admiration of some and to the dismay of others. Being a grassroots politician, he used the position to distribute largesse to party members. The positions he occupied in the campaign organisation and the government made him to know party members in all the 177 wards.

     

    Ekiti Central

    The incumbent Senator Michael Opeyemi Bamidele will slug it out with the ex-Chief of Staff to Governor Kayode Fayemi, Mr. Biodun Omoleye, at the forthcoming APC primaries. Omoleye who resigned to run for the legislative seat, has made up his mind to drag the senatorial ticket with the incumbent. The Ijurin-born politician was one those eyeing the APC governorship ticket until he was persuaded by the party hierarchy to step for the party’s flag bearer in the June 18 governorship poll, Mr. Biodun Oyebanji.

    Sources claim he left the governorship contest after been assured he will get the senatorial ticket. But, impeccable source in the party, said the promise was just a decoy to ensure Omoleye queued behind the aspiration of Oyebanji. It appears all the odds favour Bamidele, not only on account of his acceptability among the rank and files of the party but also his strong political network across 177 wards in the state which is needed by APC in the June 18 governorship poll.

    Also, another factor that seems favours Bamidele is the fact that the incumbent federal lawmaker representing Ekiti West / Efon/ Ijeroconstituency in the House of Representatives, Barr. Wumi Ogunlola is seeking re-election. Both Omoleye and Ogunlola are from Ijero local government areas and the two elective seats cannot be ceded to the council at the detriment of the other councils. While Omoleye is from Ijurin-Ekiti, Ogunlola is from Ijero-Ekiti.

    Political pundits opine that the only hope Omoleye’s senatorial ambition rested on is for the APC leadership in the state to prevail on Ogunlola to drop her ambition, which is unlikely. It was gathered that the APC leaders in Ijero council area prefer the House of Representatives seat and religiously rooting for Ogunlola to return to the House of Representative because of her sterling performance, unparalleled achievements and love for humanity.

    In the PDP, it is only Alhaji Lateef Ajijola that purchased the expression of interest and nomination forms for Ekiti Central Senatorial seats as at the time of filing this report. So, it appears the primary will be a sole contest for the businessman turned politician.

    The Ado-Ekiti born politician contested for the same PDP senatorial ticket in the 2015 general elections but lost narrowly to the eventual winner, Senator Fatimat Raji Rasaki. He gave Senator Raji-Rasaki a run for her money in the PDP primary but later went to court to challenge the senatorial primary election result which he claimed was manipulated in favour of his rival. But the result was upheld by the court. Ajijola will be riding on the political structures and fame of his leader, Fayose, who many believed conceded, the senatorial ticket to him as a payback for supporting him at the expense of Olujimi, his arch rival.

     

    Ekiti North

    The senatorial district comprises Ikole, Oye, Ilejemeje, Moba and Ido/Osi local government areas. It is the district of Governor Fayemi. The seat is currently occupied by an APC Senator, Olubunmi Adetunmbi. He is said to be seeking a return to the Senate for a third term. He is waiting for directives from Fayemi. Apart from Adetunmbi, other aspirants jostling for the legislative seat include ex-Director General of Buhari/Osinbajo Campaign Organization in Ekiti State Dr. Olusegun Osinkolu, and a former Senator, Dayo Arise.

    Osinkolu contested and lost to Senator Adetunmbi in 2019. The Ayede-Ekiti born politician is back in the senatorial race and will slug it out with the incumbent occupant and Arise. He is popular across the senatorial district. Osinkolu has been reaching out to the people even beyond his party. He has a cut-like followership across the five council areas in the zone.

    Before now, Osinkolu has been working to entrench himself within and outside the party across the senatorial district. So, it is believed that he remains a major stumbling block to the re-election bid of Adetunmbi. In the opposition PDP, nobody is known to have obtained the expression of intent and nomination forms. Activity in the party in the senatorial district as regards the race is at its lowest ebb.

     

  • Senate seat: Contenders  battle Morro in Benue South

    Senate seat: Contenders battle Morro in Benue South

    A fierce political battle is on in Benue Senatorial District of Benue State. The race for the zone’s senatorial seat promises to be an interesting one as politicians struggle to outdo one another ahead of the next general election. Incumbent Senator Abba Morro, a former minister of Interior, took over from Former Senate President David Mark, who spent sixteen years in the National Assembly and was Senate President for two terms. Morro is seeking reelection for a second term to represent Benue south senatorial district into the National Assembly.

    Unlike Governor Samuel Ortom and Senator Gabriel Suswam, who are unopposed in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primaries, Senator Abba Morro is being challenged by Hassan Saleh, who had spent two terms in the House of Representatives, representing Ado/ Okpokwu/ Ogbadibo Federal Constituency, and a former member of the House of Assembly, Hon.  Joe Ojobo

    PDP stakeholders in Benue south have made series of attempt to broker consensus deal amongst the trio of Abba, Salleh and Ojobo, to no avail. However, the former minister of Interior Abba Morro, is the toast of Benue South and highly favoured to pick the PDP ticket. Abba Morro is considered as man of the people by his political associates and admirers.

    Within three and half years that he has been in the senate, Senator Morro has attracted quality projects to his constituents spread across the nine local government areas that made up Benue south. While the main PDP bloc has given him the go ahead to seek reelection, his challengers are determined to give him a run for his money at the primary election. Pundits however say Comrade Morro knows the rules of the game more than his challengers and as such, looks good for victory.

    But there are fears of violence as the primary election approaches. Recall that the 2019 PDP Benue south primaries were moved to Makurdi, the state capital, instead of Otukpo, the senatorial headquarters, because of violence. And when it was conducted at Aper Aku stadium, it was almost marred by gun shots. However, Senator Morro won the primaries and general election. Will the same scenario play out? Only time will tell.

    The only known All Progressive Congress (APC) aspirant in Benue South senatorial district is Hon .Nelson Alakpa. Alakpa once represented Otukpo / Ohimina Federal constituency in the House of Representatives. He has remained in the party while many were defecting. A loyal party chieftain, he stood still with the state APC chairman, Autin Agada, and rebuild the party. He is a colourful politician with massive followers in Benue South. He is a grassroots mobilizer and a good party man loved by many stakeholders in the zone.

    There is no APC member in Benue south that is as committed as Hon Alakpa. He is a sure bet for the APC ticket at the primaries.

    Since he declared interest in the APC primaries in the Benue south race, many people have thrown their weight behind him. It is only left to be seen whether the massive followership he boasts of will translate to victory at the general elections.

  • Ondo: Many hurdles before incumbents in senate race

    Ondo: Many hurdles before incumbents in senate race

    Senator Ajayi Boroffice representing Ondo North senatorial district is presently the longest serving Senator in Ondo State. He was first elected to the Senate in 2011 under the Labour Party (LP) but defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) where he got re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Senator Boroffice who is Deputy Leader of the Senate, is seeking another term in office, but some aspirants in the ruling APC have vowed to stop him from securing the party’s ticket for another term in office.

    Ondo North is made up of the Akoko axis, comprising of four local government areas and the Owo/Ose axis, made up of two local government areas. Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu hails from the Owo/Ose axis which made politicians argue that the Senator in the next political dispensation should hail from the Akoko axis. The fourth term bid of Senator Boroffice might be scuttled by two powerful politicians that have indicated interest in the race. They are Rear Admiral Samuel Alade (rtd) and a revenue consultant, Chief Alex Ajipe.

    Alade hails from the Akoko axis while Chief Ajipe hails from Owo/Ose axis. A first factor is the division that has hit Senator Boroffice’s political camp. Many of his former foot soldiers have opted to work for other aspirants. The foot soldiers accused Senator Boroffice of not caring about their welfare and not doing much for the development of Ondo North in the last 12 years. Leading the pack is the former Director General of Senator Boroffice Campaign Organisation, Mr. Tolu Babaleye. Babaleye is presently the DG of Ajipe Campaign Organisation.

    Babaleye had alleged in an interview that Senator Boroffice has no empowerment project to show in the past 12 years. The human right lawyer, who spoke in Akure, said the 12 years of Senator Boroffice was the worst thing to happen to the Ondo North. He accused Senator Boroffice of disconnecting totally from the people. He also challenged the Deputy Senate Leader to mention any physical project completed since he became a senator.

    Babaleye further added that the people of Ondo North were ready to change the narrative and vote out Senator Boroffice in 2023. However, some youths under the auspices of Agenda for Greater Ondo North (AGON), who spoke at a press briefing, said Senator Boroffice has facilitated key skills and empowerment programmes as well as other initiatives for the people of Ondo North since becoming a Senator in 2011.

    National Coordinator of the group, Mr. Adewale Aguda, said it was same Babaleye that was all over Ondo North four years ago highlighting the numerous achievements of Boroffice could turn around to work

    According to him, “While we believe this challenge will be taken up by the Senator’s office when his re-election campaign fully takes off, we, as the representatives of the good people of Ondo Senatorial District, who are major beneficiaries of the various projects facilitated and sponsored by Senator Boroffice feel compelled to state some of them. Some of these were amplified by Babaleye four years ago when he was in the Senator’s team.

    “One wonders why Babaleye, a legal practitioner, would suddenly make a turn-around in his utterances on the performance of Senator Boroffice as a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Is it because he has been paid to discredit the achievement of Senator Boroffice and now leading the campaign of an opponent of the senator? Or is it that the lawyer has joined the league of the legion of ‘pull-him-down’ politicians, whose stock in trade is to castigate high performing public servants and officeholders?

    “We are watching the development with keen interest and we are ready to engage Babaleye with facts and figures. Some of these skill acquisition centres at Ifon, Oka Akoko, Ikare Akoko, and Ikaramu Akoko have trained over 1,000 youths in the trades of shoemaking, tailoring, and other trades and crafts. Some of the grades after the skills training were empowered with their trades’ starters kits, soft capitals and interest-free loans to enable them to practise what they learnt and earn decent livings to take care of themselves and those depending on them.”

    On his part, Chief Ajipe, who is the Managing Director of Click Connect, declared that his intention to contest for the Senate was to remove darkness from Ondo North by attracting meaningful developmental projects. Chief Ajipe who promised to focus on human capital development to curb crimes and unemployment said the people should judge with their votes if Senator Boroffice had represented them well.

    According to him, “Our leader has access to so many opportunities at the center, but cannot boast of a single thriving industry to employ youths and women. I drank stream water here while growing up but the problem of shortage of portable water has remained. The story had remained the same. Deceit upon deceit and unkept promises. Darkness is when our leader has all the money in the world, and our people have grown poorer and poorer over the years.

    “Darkness is when our leader has become over-confident, saying that he knows people, and will have the results of a primary written in Abuja like he usually does, and there is nothing anyone can do about it because he is the godfather of godfathers! What do we say to this? We have God on our side. The people will judge if they are okay with the representation of Senator Boroffice. I have voted for him three times and I think he should vote for me this time around.

    “They want to use issue of zoning to divide us. The Governor belongs to all the 18 local government areas. What belongs to us belongs to the six local government areas.”

    Rear Admiral Samuel Alade (rtd), the Former Commandant of National Defence Academy and Balogun of Akure Kingdom said he is capable, willing and ready to add meaninghful values to the overall development of Ondo North. Alade who promised to focus on a four-point agenda which centred around youth development, infrastructure enhancement, security and agriculture said his desire to go to the Senate was to the political opportunity to continue to help the people

    According to him, “The quest to continue to serve, even after 37 years in the military, informed my consideration to participate in partisan politics and the eventual decision to contest for a seat at the Senate under the platform of the All Progressive Congress (APC). I intend to represent the good people of Ondo North Senatorial District and the ambition has received overwhelming acceptability in the senatorial district”.

    “It will give me opportunity to add more value to the lives of the people in terms of infrastructural development, adding value to education, youth development, agriculture, as well as move the people forward economically. I think people are saying he has not performed. I am very much ready to add more value. I have helped many people to gain employment into several organisations.” If on-going consensus talks failed, the race for the APC ticket for Ondo North senatorial district might be a three-horse race among an academician, a financial consultant and a retired military personnel. The delegate would be the king.

    Meanwhile, former Speaker of Ondo State House of Assembly, Rt.Hon. Victor Olabimtan, has withdrawn from the Ondo North Senatorial race. Olabimtan, who is the Chairman, Ondo State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB said that his decision not to contest was in the interest of equity and fairness. “Owo/ Ose Federal constituency, having produced the incumbent Governor, it was expected that the senate seat would remain in Akoko side of the North senatorial district.

    You, my leaders and friends, not just from the North but also across the State, have been prompting me to take up the challenge and contest for the Ondo North senatorial seat. As noble and inspiring as this seem, I am using this medium to inform you of my decision not to contest for the Ondo North Senatorial seat in the interest of equity and fairness,” he said.

     

    Tofowomo’s headaches

    Last Wednesday, business mogul, Dr. Jimoh Ibrahim, an APC aspirant for the Ondo South Senatorial District, picket the party’s N20 million Expression of Interest and Nomination forms at the APC Secretariat, Abuja. “I have collected the forms because I have all the qualities to vie and win the APC ticket and the senate seat,” Ibrahim said. The Igbotako-born APC chieftain had announced his interest in contesting as a Senator to represent Ondo South Senatorial District in the upper chamber of the National Assembly last week.

    The founder of Fortune University Igbotako said he wants to add his professional savvy and experience to the legislative business in the National Assembly and he is poised to ensure that as a Senator representing Ondo South, he will provide maximum empowerment across the Senatorial District. Pundits say he looks good to get the ticket of the ruling party given his current relationship with the state governor.

    Aside Ibrahim, an industrialist, Tony Godday Erewa, is also interested in the Ondo South Senatorial seat in the 10th National Assembly. He is a PDP chieftain. The former governorship aspirant in the 2020 election said he is contesting the election to ensure vibrant representation and rescue the senatorial district from underdevelopment. Party sources however say he may not find it easy clinching the ticket as the incumbent senators bent on returning to the senate in 2023.

    Meanwhile, the Senator representing Ondo South Senatorial District, Nicholas Tofowomo and former Deputy Governor of the state, Agboola Ajayi, are now at loggerheads over the PDP senatorial tickets in the district. Amidst allegations from Tofowomo’s camp that Ajayi plots to manipulate the delegates’ list that will be used for the senatorial primary election, the incumbent Senator has vowed to resist any desperate bid to deny him of the party’s ticket.

    But supporters of the former deputy governor described the allegation as unfounded, saying Tofowomo is scared of the imminent defeat that awaits him in the coming election. According to Director of Media and Publicity, Tofowomo Campaign Organisation, Olumide Akinrinlola, Ajayi has concluded arrangements with some others to tinker with the delegates’ list. He claimed Ajayi boasting about his chances of winning the party’s primary during a political meeting with PDP executives at Fabiyi Hall in Okitipupa town on Saturday, March 26, 2022.

    “He boasted at the meeting that he’s working in collaboration with retired Capt. Umar Bature, the National Organising Secretary of the PDP in Abuja to win the PDP Senatorial primary in Ondo South.” He quoted Ajayi to have said that; “With the support of Wadata, especially that of the party’s National Organising Secretary, who already received from me the Adhoc delegates list for the Senatorial primary, in line with our agreement with the governors before returning to the PDP, I’m confident of winning the ticket of the party if you all support me this time.”

    Ajayi in his reaction signed by Media Adviser, Allen Sowore, said the former Deputy Governor never made such statement credited to him and described the allegation as not true. Sowore said in the statement that “For the purpose of clarity and to disabuse the minds of the unsuspecting members the general public, the former Deputy Governor, Agboola Ajayi never made such statement during the meeting held on Saturday 26th March 2022, in Fabiyi Hall, Okitipupa or anywhere else throughout his consultation tour of the South Senatorial District.

    “Luckily, prominent leaders and members of our party, who can bear witness, attended all the meetings held across the four local government areas of Ondo South District including the first meeting held on Friday 25th March, 2022, in the Idepe Town Hall, Okitipupa where the former Deputy Governor declared his interest to run for the South Senatorial District seat.

    “We are not surprised that Senator Nicholas Tofowomo who’s already jittery of the imminent defeat staring him in the coming election can go this low to authorise his Media Director to spill this gibberish and unfounded allegation against the person of the former Deputy Governor of the state, member of the National Working Committee of our great party and most importantly a leading aspirant in South Senatorial District seat.

    “Senator Nicholas Tofowomo should tell the people his achievements in the last three years; the justification for his reelection bid instead of this campaign of calumny he embarked on against the former Deputy Governor. The former Deputy Governor is focused and determined in his aspirations to rescue and liberate Ondo South Senatorial District from the jugular of this attention seeking misfit.”

    With the primary elections of the two frontline parties drawing closer by the day, pundits are predicting a tough race in the district irrespective of the candidates produced by the shadow elections. “One thing is certain, the election for the senate seat here in Ondo South will be tough given the obvious desperation among the contenders this time around,” a party source said.