With the drastic redrawing of the electoral map during last weekend’s presidential and National Assembly polls, volatile contests as the nation elects governors in 29 states as well as House of Assembly members on March 11th. In this report, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, Bisi Oladele, Southwest Bureau Chief, and our team of correspondents from across the country, examine the factors that would determine winners and losers.

One of the stories from last weekend was the Labour Party wave that saw it winning in some of the unlikely spots. Many parties also lost in their strongholds. However, our investigations show that next weekend’s polls may not necessarily follow the patterns that emerged on February 25. It is expected that local issues and personalities – not necessarily parties – would determine the race in several states.

Of particular interest would be what would happen in Southeast states where the regional consensus to back Obi’s presidential bid caused upset all calculations. Now many parties and individuals are fighting for their political lives.

In Anambra State, for instance, there would be no governorship elections. But Governor Chukwuma Soludo faces the prospect of the Labour Party taking over the House of Assembly – leaving him vulnerable and at their mercy.

Governors in Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi would be anxious to retain their grip and install their successors. All of this makes for a potentially tense and unpredictable contest across the zone.

It remains to be seen what bandwagon effect the triumph of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, in the presidential election would have on the gubernatorial contests and where that would be given that politicians are loath to find themselves in out of alignment with the power at the center.

The following correspondents contributed to the report: Fanen Ihyongo (Kano); Onimisi Alao (Adamawa ), David Adenuga (Bauchi), Victor Gai (Taraba), Kolade Adeyemi (Plateau), Sola Shittu (Gombe), Uja Emmanuel (Benue); Ahmed Rufa’i (Jigawa); Linus Oota

(Nasarawa); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Duku Joel (Yobe); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Justina Ashisana (Niger); Khadijat Saidu (Kebbi); Damian Duruiheoma (Enugu); Ogo Anioke (Ebonyi); Okungbowa Aiwerie (Delta); Adekunle Jimoh (Kwara); Mike Odiegwu (Rivers) and Nsa Gill (Cross River) Out of the 19 states in the North APC controls 14. They are Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, Kano, Jigawa, Zamfara, Gombe, Yobe, and Borno. The March 11th poll is a litmus test for the party on its ability to retain its grip on these areas.

Predictably, the battle continues among the big four namely: APC, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian Peoples Parry (NNPP).

KANO STATE

Ahead of the last lap of 2023 general election, stakeholders of political parties and their governorship candidates are leaving no stone unturned to ensure victory at the polls. In Kano state, although there is a big field of candidates, the contest is a two-horse race between the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). However, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is also good to watch.

APC

The victory of the presidential flag bearer of APC at the polls has broadened the chances of the ruling party in its campaign to retain power in Kano on March 11. The Deputy Governor, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna had the endorsement of Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje to become the party’s candidate. A former Commissioner of Local Governments Murtala Sule Garo, who strongly contested the ticket against Gawuna, became the deputy governorship candidate.

Outgoing governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who is not seeking any election, is poised to deploy all the apparatus of government with financial resources to ensure his deputy (Gawuna) succeeds him.

NNNPP

NNPP is one of the strongest and fastest rising political parties in the state. It has become a threat to APC, which is on the throne in the state for about eight years.

However, one factor militating against the party which is an offshoot of the PDP, is that it has no formidable structures in the state like APC and PDP. Everything about it revolves around the founder, Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The party was only formed in early 2022 by former governor, following his defection with his allies from PDP. Thus, NNPP, in spite of the crowd it pulls, is still seen as the Kwankwasiyya Movement. Analysts say Kwankwaso’s loss will make many of the party’s supporters shift tent to APC during the governorship election in order to ensure APC retains power in the state.

PDP

Before its gubernatorial primary, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP in Kano State was divided into two factional groups, between former minister Aminu Wali and former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. This made Kwankwaso to dump PDP and form the NNPP with his army of supporters in Kwankwasiyya Movement. This development has weakened the PDP hold in Kano State and what has remained of it is a fraction of the split -the Wali faction.

The chances of PDP winning the governorship in Kano are becoming slimmer by the day, because of intra-party conflicts and litigations following parallel leadership structures that troubled the PDP in Kano which led to factional primary elections.

The party had held parallel primaries with one nominating Mohammed Abacha – son of late military dictator Sani Abacha, while the other produced Sadiq Wali as the flag bearer.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) first declared Abacha as the candidate but later published the name of Wali as the party’s legitimate flag bearer. The confusion made Abacha seek legal redress. The court then declared him (Mohammed Sani Abacha) as the duly elected governorship candidate of the PDP in Kano. Wali appealed the judgment and last month the Appeal Court sacked Abacha and declared him as the party’s legitimate candidate for the gubernatorial poll in Kano. Abacha has gone to the Supreme Court for a final decision on the dispute. The crisis has made the party’s followers to become stranded, some of which are now migrating to APC. It was gathered that Atiku had asked Kano PDP and NNPP chapters to work in a pack. During the meeting, Atiku reportedly pleaded with Kwankwaso to do a silent merger with PDP in order to deliver him in Kano. Then Kwankwaso and his party chieftains, sources said, told Atiku and PDP stakeholders in the state to also deliver his NNPP gubernatorial candidate Abba Kabir at the poll. Kwankwaso’s demand was rejected. Those rejecting the candidacy of Abba Kabir point to the fact that he is a son-in-law to Kwankwaso. The two political parties (NNPP and PDP) could not reach a consensus on who should be supported for the governorship and presidency when they went to the presidential and National Assembly polls. Atiku’s third position in the state confirmed how weak PDP has become in Kano.

Shekarau’s contradiction

The APC governorship primary election was an outcome of the battle between Ganduje’s camp and the G-7 faction led by the senator representing Kano Central District, former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who was denied an APC ticket for his reelection bid.

This saw Shekarau pulled out of APC to Kwankwaso’s NNPP. But later on, Shekarau migrated to PDP when he reportedly struck a political deal with former vice president and PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. But while Atiku lost the presidential election to APC’s Tinubu, Shekarau stirred up a contradiction as INEC dramatically declared him winner of the Kano Central Senatorial seat on the platform of the NNPP. The controversy has plunged the NNPP into fresh internal crisis and opened a new chapter of squabbles with the PDP. The two parties appear to be fighting dirty to the gain of APC.

Moments after declaring Shekarau as the winner, NNPP’S agent, Shehu Usman, accused INEC of refusing to substitute Shekarau, who dumped the party for PDP.

Similarly, APC’s agent, Alhaji Yusuf Atta, urged INEC to declare the party’s candidate, Abdulkarim Zaura, who emerged second, as the winner, arguing that Shekarau did not participate in the election. But INEC’s Returning Officer, Darma, said the issue would be addressed at the election petitions tribunal.

LP candidate collapses structures to support APC to victory

The Labour Party (LP) governorship candidate in the state, Bashir Ishaq Bashir, recently resigned from the party and declared support for APC.

At the build up to the presidential polls, Bashir withdrew from Peter Obi – the LP presidential candidate and boycotted his rally in Kano. He was seen working for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the ballots. Through his platform known as the game changer for Asiwaju/Shettima 2023, with the slogan, ‘Sabon Lale’ (Swinging the Votes) the former LP candidate will help galvanize the ruling party’s gubernatorial campaign and ensure APC wins at the polls.

VERDICT: NNPP

KADUNA STATE

As the February 25th Presidential and National Assembly elections have been won and lost, the race to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House, Kaduna, is heated up. The March 11 poll is certainly going to be a contest between two wounded lions, the ruling APC and the opposition PDP.

PDP won last Saturday’s presidential election in Kaduna State with 554,360 votes to defeat APC, which trailed with 399,293 votes. The Labour Party (LP) came third in the number of votes scored. Although it won more local government areas than the ruling party, it only secured 294,494 votes.

PDP won in 14 local government areas of Zaria, Sabon Gari, Kagarko, Ikara, Makarfi, Kaduna South, Giwa, Kauru, Kudan, Kaduna North, Lere, Soba, Kubau and Igabi, while the ruling party won only in Sanga and Birnin Gwari local government areas.

Despite the victory at the state level, where it also cleared all the three senatorial seats, PDP is obviously coming to the governorship race with aggression for losing the presidential race at the national level.

The ruling APC on the other hand is bitter about losing all the senate seats to PDP, especially, Kaduna Central and Kaduna North districts, which are currently occupied by the ruling party. They appear to have gone back to the drawing board and are planning how best to retain the governorship seat.

Most APC chieftains believe their party was set to win all the elections in Kaduna before the naira redesign policy. They argued that the policy incited the public against APC, hence the poor performance witnessed during the first election.

The State APC Campaign Council in its reaction to the recent poll, said it suffered reversals in the presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna because of the “strange decisions designed to stir massive anger against it” but the reversals will be corrected. 

The Director, Strategic Communication of the Council, Ibraheem Musa, however, vowed that, ahead of the March 11 gubernatorial elections, APC will deepen its strategy, campaign harder and return back to the people to further sell its manifesto. He said APC will ensure that the failures witnessed during the February 25th elections are democratically reversed and turned to success for APC across the state.

Musa said: “We applaud the people for performing the civic responsibility of casting their votes, under the most severe circumstances. The votes of the people of Kaduna state have contributed to the obvious triumph of APC in the presidential election.  APC has won a great national victory, despite the obstacles placed on its path by strange decisions that were designed to stir mass anger. The Kaduna state APC Council is pressing forward with its engagement with the people for governorship and the state House of Assembly elections on March 11th.

“In these challenging times, we have had reversals that will be democratically corrected on 11 March 2023. As democrats, we are not bellyaching over the setbacks our party and its candidates experienced in several constituencies in our state, and we expect every political party to emulate this and respect the choice of the people, not only when it favours their partisan interest. This is anchored on a record of competent governance, promotion of public welfare and the concrete achievements the APC has recorded in Kaduna state since 2015.

“The real battle for the future of Kaduna state will be on 11 March 2023 when Senator Uba Sani whose record of service is unparalleled, and our 34 state assembly candidates will be on the ballot. We are counting on the people of Kaduna state to come out en masse and vote peacefully, as well as overwhelmingly for the candidates of continuity,” Musa said.

The PDP on the other hand is already making efforts to woo other opposition political parties to its side, so that they can collectively wrestle power from the ruling party. The Chairman of the party in the state, Hon. Hassan Hyet, described the defeat of APC as a sign of total rejection of the party in government in Kaduna.

PDP Chairman urged the people not to relent in their determinations, and repeat same by voting massively for PDP in the forthcoming gubernatorial and state House of Assembly elections.

He said: “For the first time in history, PDP clinched the three senatorial seats, and 10 out the 16 federal constituencies in the state. More to that, in 2019 general elections, PDP produced the highest number of votes for our presidential candidate, and same was repeated in the just-concluded elections. “

Hyet further explained that PDP in the state is working very hard to maintain the lead and win at the coming elections.

However, beyond the calculations of both  APC and PDP, the Kaduna electorates are currently divided into four groups: the group that voted for PDP and APC respectively in the just- concluded elections and ready to repeat same in the March 11th poll; the group that voted for other political parties and are discouraged that their preferred candidates didn’t win and won’t bother to come out for governorship elections; the group that didn’t come out at all during the presidential poll and those who are only interested in who becomes president, but don’t care about governance at the state level.

If the election is to be decided by the first group, the PDP will surely carry the day in the gubernatorial and state assembly elections. What will however determine the winner in the March 11th polls is ability of each of the two major contenders in the race to win the three other groups to their side.

By now, it is clear to both the Obi-led LP and Kwankwaso-led NNPP that, they lack the numerical strength to win the governorship slot in Kaduna. Their strength will however make a big difference if they agree to align with any of the major parties.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

TARABA STATE

The March 11 governorship elections would be a litmus test in Taraba politics. Would the political status quo be changed or would it be maintained? This is the crucial question in the minds of Tarabans as we go into the epic battle.

The top contenders are: Col. Agbu Kefas of PDP, Emmanuel Bwacha (APC), Danladi Baido (SDP), Professor Sani Yahaya (NNPP) and Joel Ikenya (Labour Party).

As a matter of fact, the factors that would determine the outcome of the election are: history, the outcome of the presidential election, ethnicity, religion and the pedigree of each candidate.

Going by history, Taraba has never been lost to the opposition since its creation. In fact, it holds the enviable position of the only PDP State in the north never to have fallen to the opposition. Therefore, unless history is changed, the state is most likely go the way of PDP. This is so because the Taraba electorates are more disposed to the party rather than the candidate.

The outcome of the just concluded presidential election would add credence to this claim.

The PDP scored 189,017 to beat others. Strangely enough, while the Labour Party came second with 146,315, the main opposition APC came third with 135,165. NNPP, a new prospect, came fourth with 12,818.

Meanwhile, the two leading contenders, APC and PDP had endured a divided house resulting in court litigations which could put the chances of the two parties in jeopardy. Very important and influential members of both parties are so aggrieved and it is in doubt if they would work for the party in the governorship election.

For instance in PDP, former Chairman, Victor Bala Kona and former Speaker, Joseph Albasu Kunini have gone on sabbatical. Worse still, a serving member of the House of Representatives, Danladi Baido defected to SDP in protest against the mismanagement of party affairs. The governor, Darius Ishaku who happens to be the leader of the party was alleged to have fallen out with the governorship candidate and was no longer having a grip of the party. The humiliation of the governor in the National Assembly elections by a relatively unknown candidate actually added salt to injury.

APC too is not without its own headache. Some leaders that matter in the party are not with the governorship flagbearer, Emmanuel Bwacha. Individuals like David Sabo Kente, the senator representing Taraba Central, Yusuf A. Yusuf, Sani Abubakar Danladi and former Minister Saleh Mamman have all refused to recognize Bwacha because of the primary elections that produced him.

The APC candidate is touted to stand out among the lot going by his experience, popularity and grassroots connection. The popular belief among Tarabans now is that Bwacha remains the biggest threat to PDP in Taraba. Besides, being a Christian, he has the potential of churning out the Christian majority vote and the Muslim bloc vote who are traditionally APC.

The PDP candidate Agbu Kefas, was a, former chairman of the party in the state. Quite unassuming and perceived as docile, Kefas was a former security chief. He is one who it is believed acts more than he speaks. He is full of optimism of transforming the fortunes of the state if elected. But he would face stiff competition from other candidates who are more grounded politically.

The candidate of NNPP, Professor Sani Yahaya was an aggrieved governorship aspirant in APC. He later jumped ship to NNPP. Observers say, should APC and PDP fail to put their house in order, Yahaya might steal the show with huge Hausa/Fulani Kwankwasiya votes in his kitty.

Also, Danladi Baido, the National Assembly member, is a grassroots politician of considerable experience. He has been doing his campaigns underground. With little or no structure in the state, his chances are limited but he might be the spoiler especially for PDP where he came from.

The surprise exploits of Obi during the presidential election in the state, might be a tonic for Ikenya of Labour Party. The massive votes the party garnered in the election if repeated during the governorship polls, might give Ikenya the victory. This is in the face of crisis in both APC and PDP.

With his grassroots connection and popularity, Ikenya might pull a surprise. Last week’s elections have proven that no candidate is indispensable.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

NIGER STATE

The results of the presidential and National Assembly elections in Niger state were shocking and unexpected because some of the local government areas, which were rated as the stronghold of APC were taken over by the opposition, especially PDP and LP.

APC won 21 local government areas which included Wushishi, Rafi, Gbako, Gurara, Paikoro, Bosso, Lavun, Magama, Tafa, Agaie, Munya, Kontagora, Agwara, Shiroro, Mariga, Mashegu, Rijau, Chachanga, Borgu, Lapai and Bida.

While PDP earned Edati, Katcha and Mokwa Local Government Areas, Labour Party won Suleja respectively.

In Niger state, the two main contenders for the governorship race are the APC Governorship Candidate, Honorable Umar Bago and the PDP Candidate, Alhaji Isah Liman Kantigi.

These two would have to fight for the votes from Niger South because the Presidential elections showed that PDP won majority of the votes from that zone signaling that the zone has the strength of Kantigi.

However, it may be an easy sail for APC in the Niger East and North senatorial zones as it reflected during the presidential and House of Assembly elections. APC would clinch the two districts without difficulty.

There is no doubt that the governorship race would follow the same pattern as the Presidential and National Assembly elections. APC may win the governorship poll.

The voting pattern may not be the same in the House of Assembly election, There is high probability that the state would have some elected members from the opposition parties in its next House of Assembly following the trend of the National Assembly elections.

VERDICT: APC

YOBE STATE

One of the biggest surprises that came out of the presidential election was the change of the calculation in Yobe. No party man in the state and beyond ever contemplated the kind of victory PDP recorded in the state. It was indeed a shocking defeat for APC when PDP won the state with a difference of 47,108 votes. From the official results declared, PDP came top with 198,567 while APC trailed second with 151,459.

 The declaration of the result has since given the state chapter of APC some sleepless nights. But PDP leaders and supporters are emboldened by the victory and they believe that the governorship and the state House of Assembly elections will be a walk over for them in the state.

The gubernatorial candidate of the PDP, Mr. Bashir Sadiq boasted after the results in Damaturu that Yobe might witness a change regime. He said: “What happened last Saturday has given us confidence. It is more or less just a referendum for the gubernatorial election and we are going to win Yobe, In Sha Allahu come March 11th”.

While the loss of the party has pitched the stakeholders in the state against one another, many party supporters believe that Governor Mai Mala Buni will deliver Yobe with ease because of his popularity and various positions he has held in the party. APC leaders in the state have, however, gone back to the drawing board to appraise their failure and map out strategies to re-establish their supremacy in the state.

Investigation revealed that Buni on February 28th held a closed door meeting with all stakeholders including all political appointees in the state. An insider in the meeting told our correspondent in confidence that the governor was blunt and disappointed in his appointees for allowing PDP to record such a victory in Yobe.

 An insider also revealed that some of the stakeholders pointed out Buni’s fault which made it responsible for the PDP to make such a historic inroad in the state. The source revealed that the governor gave a marching order that the state must re-establish and redeem her status in the eyes of Tinubu’s government by ensuring a landslide victory in the governorship and House of Assembly elections.

As part of steps to reclaim Yobe from PDP in the next election, the Deputy Governor, Hon. Idi Barde Gubana on March 1st also met with all the traditional rulers in the state behind the curtains in WAWA Hall of the Government House where they were all tasked to go back to their domains and deliver votes to APC. 

Investigation revealed that some of the reasons that caused APC defeat were largely attributed to leadership neglect of the governor whom many in the state accused of being surrounded with youths at the expense of real party-men at the grassroots.

The governor was also accused of being addicted to social media which the youth have exploited to their own advantage by deceiving him that everything was going on well while in the real sense the people were discontented.

A party stalwart who for fear of victimization berated the governor for losing grip on the structure of the party to inexperienced hands. He particularly pointed accusing fingers at a member of the State Executive Committee of APC for orchestrating imposition of candidates during the last primaries of the party.

On the accusation of the governor indulging in anti-party activities, the state chairman of the party, Mohammed Gadaka said the governor never ever and will not contemplate working for the PDP after nurturing APC as a party to an enviable height.

The party chairman also described the claim that PDP will win the Yobe governorship as a “fantasy and a dream.” He explained that the fortunes of the party in the elections were scuttled by the influence of a powerful Islamic cleric with a huge followership in the region, Sheik Dahiru Bauchi who instructed his followers to vote for PDP.

  “After the Izala Islamic group leader made a statement for his people to support Tinubu, then Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi’s followers also asked him to take a stand on a political party. Dahiru declared his support for PDP.

“Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi also made a statement that his people should vote for Atiku and that is what caused this change in the Northeast. He has a lot of followers in the Northeast and in Yobe too. But for next election, it is not going to happen this way.

“I want to tell the people who are claiming that Buni did anti-party that it is not true. The influence of Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi on the people is what caused the unfortunate outcome of the presidential election in our state. It was beyond our governor’s control. We are solidly behind our candidate Tinubu who will be forming the next government In Sha Allahu.

“People should not forget that APC won all the three senators in the state and this is a clear sign that Yobe is a stronghold of APC,” Gadaka said.

It was shocking also to many that Buni, a former Chairman of the National Caretaker/Extra-ordinary Convention Planning Committee failed to deliver the state to APC. Atiku came ahead top with 198, 567 votes while Tinubu trailed with 151, 459 votes respectively.

A glimpse at the APC performance in the state indicated that, apart from Buni losing his home in Gujba Local Government Area with 6,643 to  PDP’s 8,204, as against, the Minister of Power, Abubakar Aliyu, also lost Potiskum Local Government with 13,521 behind PDP’s 34, 787.

The Director-General of APC Campaign Council in Yobe State and former PDP senator, Mohammed Hassan, who defected to APC recently, also joined the Minister of Power to lose Potiskum to PDP. The President of the Senate, Dr. Ahmad Lawan equally lost his Bade Local Government Area to PDP with 15,789 as against APC’s 8,081 votes.

The State Party Chairman, Mohammed Gadaka, lost his local government of Fika with APC securing 12,419 votes and PDP garnering 19,975 votes

The same victory was recorded in Fune Local Government Area by PDP where the State Deputy Governor, Idi Barde Gubana, hails from. PDP scored 18,308 votes while APC scored 12,696 the area.

Out of the 17 local governments in Yobe State, the PDP clinched 12, leaving five for APC.

But Gadaka was confident that the misfortune witnessed by his party at the presidential election does not make PDP popular in the state.

PDP has a tall dream to achieve in a complex state like Yobe where some indices, especially tribal factor, determine power pendulum. The ethnic configuration makes the party’s ambition difficult except there is a miracle against APC. The PDP governorship candidate, Sheriff Abdullahi, is from Bade Local Government Area and he is Bade by tribe. But Buni is from Gujba and he is said to be Kanuri, the largest ethnic group in the state. The Kanuri do not joke with power control in the state.

The personality factor

The last presidential election was largely based on personality and that is why many people voted Atiku in the Northeast. But when it comes to the governorship election in Yobe, Sheriff is not a personality compared to Buni. The people may go all out to vote for Buni.

“PDP will not smell victory in this election. I will tell you something that will shock you. For the House of Assembly election, everyone will win based on his popularity with his people,” Mohammed Gaskanta, former state party secretary of the defunct APP said.

VERDICT: APC

GOMBE STATE

The news of the defeat of Gombe State Governor, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, at his polling Unit, Yahaya Umaru polling Unit 010 Jekadafari, Gombe was no doubt a shocking one to the ruling APC in the state.

What was more shocking was the violence that broke out in the same polling unit leading to the death of one person and two broken legs of, Alhaji Kawuu Masu, the party youth’s leader, who is now in an Abuja hospital receiving treatment.

Since then, tension has been mounting in the state especially over whether the governor can survive the pending tsunami in the state politics.

A close look at the results of the presidential election neither put a smile on the face of the ruling APC nor any ray of hope for Governor Yahaya. At present, the opposition PDP seems to be having an upper hand in the state with two senators-elect – former Governor Hassan Dankwambo, (Gombe North) and Honourable Tony Siyaku Yaro (Gombe South) in its kitty. Similarly, out of six members of the House of Representatives in the state, the APC won only one by Hon. Bello Kumo of Akko Federal Constituency. The remaining five constituencies were again earned by the opposition PDP.

However, the ruling APC has a hope in only one man who has proved himself to be a political enigma in the state, Senator Muhammed Danjuma Goje who won his Gombe Central senatorial ticket for the fourth term. Unfortunately, for the party and the state government, it is not certain if Goje is on the same page with the governor.

Goje has not been visible or active in the local politics of Gombe in recent times. He is an unseen hand pulling some strings which may undermine APC. He was not even at the Presidential campaign of Asiwaju and the APC in Gombe.

Political observers believe that the silence of Goje in Gombe politics is a signal of danger not only for the party in the state but also the second term ambition of Yahaya. When Tinubu visited Gombe late last year to canvass for the votes of Gombe delegates in APC primary, he specifically expressed concern about the fragile relationship between the governor and Goje. He added that if Goje was in town, he was ready to take the governor to him and straighten things out.

Nevertheless, all hope is not lost for the ruling party and its governor because the opposition PDP is also battling with an internal crisis over its choice of candidate, Alhaji Jibrin Barde, which has led to the exit of many party faithful to the  relatively New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Today, NNPP is gaining ground in Gombe and it has become the opposition party in the State House of Assembly.

Undoubtedly, the result of the February 25th presidential election is not likely to have any impact on the local politics in Gombe. Many power blocs have already been formed and their minds already made up on the governorship election. These blocs cut across the three senatorial districts of the state. The political barometer at the moment in Gombe indicates a straight fight, first between Alhaji Jibrin Barde of the PDP and Hon. Khamisu Mailantarki of NNPP who is alleged to be enjoying the support of some political bigwigs in the state and Abuja.

Secondly, the battle can also be between Yahaya as a sitting governor versus both Barde and Mailantarki or whoever emerged from a rumored alliance between the PDP and the NNPP. If the two opposition parties refused to reach a compromise before the Governorship Election, Yahaya might end up being the greatest beneficiary of the confusion in their camps. Yet and again, the Goje factor has a big role to play in all these because with the stronghold of Goje on Gombe Central and Dankwambo in Gombe North and  s the strong opposition of Gombe South to the ruling government, whosoever Goje endorses might be the winner of the election.

At the moment, a lot of political meetings and horse trading triggered by the loss of the state to the PDP in the presidential election are going on in Gombe and Abuja. These meetings might result in the defection of some political bigwigs into any of the three political parties, APC, PDP and NNPP which will point to where the votes of the majority of Gombe are likely to go.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

PLATEAU STATE

After the presidential and the National Assembly elections, the attention of voters and stakeholders in Plateau State has shifted to the governorship battle.

Giving that the incumbent governor Lalong is completing his second term, the race is now open for any political party to succeed him. And from the look of things, the contending political parties are APC, PDP and LP.

Though the governorship election is a state affair, the outcome of the presidential election will certainly have influence on the voting pattern in the March 11 governorship election. How such influence is likely to play out in the case of is the puzzle everyone is eager to see.

The statistics of strength of the contending political parties obtained from the results of the presidential election shows that, of the 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Plateau State, the ruling APC won in three namely Kanam, Wase and Kanke respectfully. PDP won in Langtang and Mikang LGAs. And LP won in 12 LGAs including Bokkos, Langtang North, Jos East, Riyom, Mangu, Bassa, Jos South, Pankshin, Shendam, Qua’an Pan and Barkin Ladi LGAs.

Giving the voting pattern of the presidential election, the chances of the ruling APC to extend its dominance in Plateau state beyond the tenure of Lalong is very slim. Winning just three of the 17 LGAs was already a vote of no confidence in the ruling party. It was a major setback for APC.

Notwithstanding, the fact that APC retained power at the national level could snowball into a victory to the ruling party in the governorship election. Already, APC stakeholders are warning people against voting other political parties that will make them remain in opposition against APC at the national level. Whether or not the new campaign strategy will change the voting pattern on March 11 is left to be seen.

As things stand now, the governorship election has been limited to Labour Party and PDP.

THE NATION found out that irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election, the factors that will determine winner of the governorship election are: the personalities behind the three contending political parties – APC, PDP and LP; the incumbent governor, Simon Bako Lalong; the immediate past governor of the state Jonah David Jang and another ex-governor of the state Senator Joshua Chibi Dariye.  They are the topmost political titans in the state and they are so influential that they call the shots in the state.

Their political influence shows clearly in the dominant political parties today in the state. The incumbent governor Lalong is the driving force in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Jang is unarguably the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. Senator Dariye is equally the leader of Labour Party in the state. The leaders of these three political parties decide what happens in their political parties respectively.

As a matter of fact the governorship election in Plateau State can only be won by APC, PDP or LP.

Another factor that has put PDP ahead of others and made its chances in the governorship election brighter was in respect of the results of the National Assembly elections. From the results, PDP won two of the three senatorial districts. The opposition party has also five of the eight House of Representatives seats in the state. Given such grassroots dominance, PDP is ahead of other parties.

Though LP got the highest number of votes cast in the presidential election, the party did not win any National Assembly seat. LP might not do well in the governorship election.

VERDICT: PDP

ADAMAWA STATE

The governorship race in Adamawa State is being contested by six players, including an amazon, Sen. Aishatu Ahmed Binani of APC). The female candidate is pitched against Governor Ahmadu Fintiri who holds the ticket of PDP; Dr. Umar Ardo who bears the ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP); Umar Mustapha of LP, Alhaji Muhammed Tahir of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and Ibrahim Babaina of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

Of the lot, Ibrahim Babaina, from the onset, has appeared to be the least to make impact come March 11 when the governorship election takes place because he has not shown much commitment to the race. A former military man who retired as a lieutenant commodore, Ibrahim Babaina had appeared from the blues to the political scene last year when he rehabilitated the PRP which was little heard of in the state. He has had such poor presence on the scene across Adamawa State that he is rarely thought of even when the governorship contest is the topic of discussion.

For Muhammed Tahir, otherwise known as MC Tahir after his full name, Mohammed Chugbado Tahir, the impression is virtually the same. When NNPP came alive in Adamawa State last year following its rebirth at the national level by Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, the credit in the state went to Tahir who was immediately reputed to be its leader at the state level. He eventually became NNPP governorship candidate. But he has been quiet, possibly for health reason, as he was at a time said to be battling with a certain ailment.

The Labour Party candidate, Umar Mustapha, better known simply as Otunba in view of his title from Ekiti State, is much more in the news, but not strictly in positive light. From when he obtained the Labour Party governorship ticket to date, he has not enjoyed a functional working relationship with the party at either the state or national level.

Otunba’s quarrel with the national leaders of the party came into the open early last month when the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, came on a campaign visit to the state and Otunba kept his distance. He said Obi’s coming was not properly communicated to him and he was not invited to be a part of Obi’s campaign in the state.

Following intra-party crisis, Otunba announced at a ceremony put together by the APC in Yola that because he was not getting a good deal from his Labour Party both at the state and federal levels, he and his supporters had chosen to support not the LP presidential candidate but the APC candidate and now President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Otunba emphasized, however, that he remained the LP governorship candidate in Adamawa State.

It is doubtful that if Otunba would go far at the poll. Apart from his estrangement from his party, he does not appear to have made sufficient public impression to get votes.

Dr. Umar Ardo of the SDP has a more formidable public image and is seen as the third ‘most serious’ of the governorship contenders. A veteran governorship candidate, Ardo had always been in the PDP but rarely ever getting along with its leadership. He had at first shown his disdain for PDP by forming what he named Redeemed PDP (R-PDP) but left completely towards the current electoral circle for the SDP which he re-energized, He picked SDP’s governorship ticket, and he is now set for the coming governorship election.

The March 11 election will be the first at which Umar Ardo’s political strength will be tested in the court of the electorate. It is expected that of the six in the governorship race, he should come after the big two.

The big two candidates in the race are Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP and Aishatu Ahmed Binani of the APC. The two remain the real issues in Adamawa State for the governorship election.

The two candidates have been at par in rating such that it is difficult right now to say who will take the day.

Fintiri has the power of incumbency which should count for him. He has also been widely commended to have done well in delivery of development projects.

The two flyovers that his administration has built are sources of pride to many Adamawa people who are elated that they now have a semblance of the opulence of Abuja in Yola. But his critics, including LP’s Otunba, described the flyovers as white elephant projects.

In general terms, Fintiri’s major drawback, as some observers would note, has been lack of enthusiasm for stomach infrastructure, with many of his initial supporters complaining of not having been compensated by him. This is why many have reasoned that great public infrastructure, which defined the administration of former Governor Jibrilla Bindow, may not guarantee second term for a governor. Bindow did well but he lost re-election bid. Fintiri’s case is only different in the sense that his PDP, unlike Bindow’s APC in 2019, is united at the state level.

Binani on the other hand has proven herself to be a politician you can ignore at your own peril. She proved her political worth in May last year when she floored five famous and hard fighting men to pick the APC ticket. She is believed to have enough up her sleeve to pull through and become Nigeria’s first elected female governor on March 11th.

A source of doubt exists, however. Her party, the APC, is almost as disunited now as it was in 2019 when it lost the governorship seat to the PDP. The intra-party disharmony of 2019 was re-enacted last year after Binani won the APC ticket when one of her opponents, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, went to court to question her candidacy.

The candidacy was restored by the Court of Appeal. It is uncertain whether or not Nuhu Ribadu and his supporters as well as others who had issues with Binani will support her. As an Amazon, Binani nonetheless, has a number of influential supporters within the APC who are openly demonstrating support for him.  A House of Representatives member, Hon Abdulrazak Namdas and highly vocal Senator Ishaku Abbo readily come to the mind.

Namdas who was one of the prominent party men who fought for the APC governorship ticket with Binani, has long put the APC primary behind him. He has given his support to Binani and he was with her all through her campaign for the general election in the state.

Senator Abbo who currently represents Adamawa North District in the Senate, has similarly been all over the state with Binani as she campaigned for the March 11 governorship election.

And Binani’s chances are seen as having been buoyed now by the emergence of her party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, as the President-elect.

The euphoria of victory is indeed strong in Adamawa State, with the state APC leadership right now planning a rally in solidarity with the Asiwaju.

VERDICT: PDP

BAUCHI STATE

For Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, securing a second-term mandate is not going to be an easy one for several reasons. Fifteen political parties have nominated candidates for the election. These candidates from different political parties emerged from the governorship primaries of the different parties held last year. They are Hassan Kalid of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP); Auwal Adamu, Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM); Governor Bala Mohammed of PDP, Senator Halliru Dauda Jika of NNPP; Abubakar Ibrahim of LP, Abubakar Saddique of APC; Umaru Nuhu Tilde of SDP; and Umar Faruq Ahmed of the Peoples’ Redemption Party (PRP).

Others are Saleh Auwalu Dahiru of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Usman Dankyrana Mustapha of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Musa Magazine of the Action Alliance (AA), Ahmed Magaji Saleh of SDP, Saleh Sulaiman of the National Rescue Movement (NRM), Kabiru Abdulhamid Shuwa of the Action Peoples’ Party (APP) and Umar Garba Aliyu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP).

Despite the crowded list, the contest is among three political parties: the PDP, which is the ruling party; the APC and the NNPP. It’s believed that the result of the presidential election may have an impact on the governorship race with realignment of forces, including those seeking to associate with the incoming APC administration of Tinubu.

Bauchi South as battleground

In Bauchi South, it will be an epic battle between APC and PDP in the zone. NNPP is said to have a weak structure in the zone. The district itself consists of seven local government areas namely, Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.

The incumbent Governor Mohammed who hails from Alkaleri Local Government Area would seek to take advantage of the plurality of votes from the district, which accounts for 63 per cent of the votes in the state.

For those familiar with Bauchi politics, the political climate cannot be predicted. But, what cannot be disputed is that Bauchi people can be stubborn and very cold. Those attributes played out in the ousting of the immediate past Governor Mohammed Abubakar of the APC.

Mohammed defeated the immediate past governor during the last general elections in 2019 with the majority of the votes coming from Bauchi South, especially Bauchi Local Government. As such, whoever wins this zone will automatically win the election due to its large population.

Mohammed made history in the 2019 elections by being the first to defeat an incumbent governor in the state since the return to civil rule in 1999.

Political analysts believe Mohammed’s re-election will be a very tough one this time around with the multiple oppositions he is facing.  Until now, the governor is expected to sail through in the zone but recent developments have changed the permutations.

For instance, a former member of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Shehu Abdullahi, who was among those who helped the governor to secure votes in the Bauchi Local Government in 2019 has fallen out with him. Though Abdullahi was a former PRP stalwart, he is believed to have worked for the governor at the elections. It’s said that Yakubu may work against the governor’s reelection this time around.

Similarly, former Governor Isa Yuguda, who hails from Bauchi South, was one of those that helped to mobilize support for Governor Mohammed in the zone. But, he is no longer in the PDP. He is now in the APC and this is a boost for the party.

The battle line had already been drawn with the outcome of the National Assembly / Presidential elections.

Both parties continued their rivalry at the election with the PDP showing why it is the ruling party in the state. It won the presidential election for its candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar, and won a majority of the House of Representatives seats and Senatorial Districts.

But unfortunately, the PDP did not win the Bauchi South senatorial district.  The candidate of the APC, Hon Shehu Buba was declared the winner in the Zone. However, PDP candidate, Aminu Aliyu Garu won the Bauchi Federal Constituency seat.

Garu, a popular politician in the South, is expected to vote for the governor in the council as a Reps-elect.

The APC itself won five while the PDP won seven Federal House of Representatives seats. Out of the five, three of the Reps-elect for the APC are from Bauchi South.

These Representatives-elect are grassroots politicians who can help mobilize their people to vote for APC candidate, Sadique.

Coincidentally, the APC deputy governorship candidate, Shehu Musa Aliyu is from Bauchi Local Government Area as well.

He is expected to influence the voting pattern in favour of his party. Aliyu, a popular grassroots politician was elected into the House of Representatives in 2015. He lost in 2019 but contested again and won the primary in 2022 before he was picked as a running mate to Saddique Abubakar.

Hence, political analysts are of the view that the APC candidate will match the governor’s strength for strength in his stronghold. Though the governor is not taking chances. He showed his strength when he delivered Bauchi for Atiku.

The disunity in the state chapter of the PDP may affect the governor’s chances in the zone. For example, prominent politicians like the former speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara who controls three local government areas (Bogoro, Dass, and Tafawa Balewa), a former national chairman, Alhaji Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu, and respected elder statesman, Alh. Muhammadu Bello Kirfi – all from Bauchi South – may work against Mohammed’s reelection.

The dethroning of the elder statesman, Kirfi, as the Wazirin Bauchi by the Emirates Council for allegedly “disrespecting” the governor suggests a deep crisis in the party at the state level.

Although some leaders mobilized voters for Atiku, they won’t do the same for Mohammed due to their grievances with him.

The chairman of the Bauchi Peoples’ Parliament (Zauren Mutanen Bauchi), a civil society organization, Abubakar Billy, said PDP would only win Bauchi South if the crisis in the party is resolved before the election.

Billy, the first grandson of the late Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa-Balewa said: “The PDP may only have its way only if the governor sorts out his differences with some of these people.”

Bauchi North

Until now, APC was predicted to win Bauchi North, but with the outcome of the presidential/ National Assembly election, it has been observed the zone will be another battleground.

Recall Bauchi governor delivered 18 out of 20 local government areas to Atiku at the presidential election.

The PDP presidential candidate pulled an upset in Giade and Katagum councils (Bauchi North) by defeating the APC President-elect in the strongholds of the party.

Giade is the local government of the APC gubernatorial candidate, Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar while Katagum is the local government of the current Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, and Mariam Katagum, Minister of State for Industry, Trade, and Investment.

The APC also lost the Bauchi North Senatorial election to the PDP. Kaila Dahuwa Samiala was declared the winner of the election. He defeated his closest rival, Sirajo Tanko, of the APC.

It lost the Shira/ Giade and Zaki constituencies to the PDP as well. Ibrahim Sanni Tanko and Dan Abba Shehu won the constituencies respectively but analysts predict a comeback by the APC in the zone.

The grassroots politicians expected to pull votes for the APC candidate are two former Deputy governors, Abdulmalik Mahmood who served under former governor Adamu  Muazu for eight years, and Sajir Aminu Saleh, a deputy governor to former governor Mallam Isa Yuguda and the Reps-elect for  the Gamawa Federal Constituency, Gamawa Adamu Ibrahim.

Others mobilizing support for the APC in the zone are  Yerima Giade, a  former National Commissioner in the Federal Character Commission, and a former National Secretary of the PDP, Alhaji Musa Babayo.

To garner more support in the northern district, Governor Mohammed selected Auwal Jatau from Zaki LGA as his running mate, after dropping his deputy, Sen. Baba Tela.

He also picked the Director-general of his campaign team, Farouk Mustapha from the region, as well.

Mustapha was one of the governorship aspirants of the APC before he defected to the PDP after failing to get the party’s ticket. He once represented Katagum Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives but lost his bid to go to the Senate.

The Chief of Staff to the governor, Dr. Aminu Gamawa, the PDP Representatives-elect for Katagum, Shehu Mohammed and Ibrahim Sani Tanko who won Shira/ Giade constituency’s ticket are expected to deliver votes to Bala Mohammed in the zone.

But an APC chieftain in the state, Comrade Sabo Mohammed told the Nation that the picking of Jata’u, won’t stop his party from winning the zone. He said there is a collective consensus among critical stakeholders in the state to massively support Sadique.

He said Bauchi South itself has dominated the governorship in the last 23 years, taking advantage of its population and the number of local government areas. He said: “All the governors since 1999 on the platform of both the PDP and the APC are from the region. They include Ahmadu Adamu Muazu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abubakar (APC), and the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP).

“The bone of contention is that the people of the northern zone, comprising Misau, Jama’re and Katagum Emirate Councils are not happy with the fact that the only time the region produced a governor was 43 years ago when Abubakar Tatari Ali became the first civilian governor between 1979 and 1983. But, his tenure was thwarted by the military coup on December 31, 1983, which brought General Muhammadu Buhari to power as a military leader.”

He told the Nation that only disunity in the zone would rob them of the opportunity of producing the next governor because they have gained sympathy from the people of Bauchi State after being sidelined for a long period.

But Billy said the electorates in Bauchi North are behind the governor in the zone.

He said there is no agitation anywhere because the Katagum people are okay with producing a deputy governor because their collective decision was to wait until 2027 to produce a governor.

“Come to think of it, Bauchi people are not after where you’re from but your performance. That’s why they voted out former governor Mohammed Abubakar. We’ve not seen someone who has done so much like this governor in terms of infrastructural development”

Bauchi Central

The Bauchi Central Senatorial District covers the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.

The APC appears to be currently divided in the zone following the defection of the Senator representing the zone, Jika Dauda Halliru representing Bauchi Central, who is now contesting for the governorship race under the NNPP.

It’s believed that the emergence of Jika from the Bauchi Central will spoil APC’s votes in the zone to give the PDP an edge.

Jika was elected to represent the Darazo/Ganjuwa Constituency in the House of Representatives and he served two terms between 2007 and 2015.

In the 2019 election, he was elected a senator to represent Bauchi Central on the platform of the APC. The grassroots politician was once the speaker of the Bauchi State House of Assembly before he later emerged as the governorship candidate of the NNPP, following his defection to the party.

Jika’s popularity in the zone would give both the APC and PDP a. headache considering his political experience and popularity.

Danlami Babantakko described Jika as a very strong candidate who is a determined and committed politician with vast experience in politics.

He said: “Unarguably, Jika is a good material in the party, and politics, as they say, is a game of numbers; he has thousands of supporters across the state that would eventually help the party to wrestle power from the opposition. Banking on the popularity of the NNPP, Jika plans to cash in on Rabiu Kwankwaso’s popularity as the main actor in the NNPP. He will certainly spoil APC’s votes in the zone.”

However, PDP won the Bauchi Central Senatorial district. Abdul Ningi, an ally of the presidential candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar was declared the winner of the election.

Ningi scored 104,878 votes while Hon Uba Ahmad Nana of the APC came second with 84,621 votes. Sen. Isah Hamma Misau of the NNPP came third with 17,995 votes.

Ningi’s victory makes it his second term in the Senate.  He served as a Senator representing Bauchi Central Senatorial District from 2011 to 2015 in his first term.

Ningi, who delivered his council to Atiku, is expected to pull massive votes for the governor in the zone.

Other popular stakeholders for the PDP in Bauchi Central are the party chairman, Alhaji Hamza Akuyam; the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Suleiman Abubakar who was in the APC before he defected to the PDP;  and the Head of Service, Yahuza Adamu.

The rest are the PDP Reps-elect in Ningi/Warji, Adamu Hashimu, the Reps-elect in Misau/Damba Bappa Aliyu, and the Reps-elect in Ganjuwa/Darazo, Mansur Manu Soro.

For the APC, stakeholders expected to pull votes for Sadique in the zone are Uba Nana, the immediate past Chairman of the party but unfortunately, he lost the senatorial election to Ningi. He is from one of the minority LG (Warji) in the zone. Other APC stakeholders are the current APC Chairman Alhaji Babayo Misau and a presidential aide Ya’u Darazo.

VERDICT: PDP

BENUE STATE

Before Saturday Presidential and National Assembly elections ,the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Benue State had gone  into the race with three (3) Senators , Nine ( 9) out of eleven (11) House of Representatives seats .

All that changed dramatically, against all expectations. The (PDP) came out of the presidential and National Assembly elections as a wounded lion with only one Senatorial seat of out of three, one House of Representatives seat out of 11.

The opposition All Progressive Congress, APC overran PDP and won 11 House of Representatives seats and two senatorial seats (Zones A and B).

In the presidential elections, APC despite being an opposition party polled 310,468 to defeat PDP and Labour Party (LP) with 130,081 and 308,372 respectively.

The massive votes polled by LP were attributed to the incumbent factor influenced by Governor Samuel Ortom, who worked strenuously for Mr. Peter Obi. But from the results of the presidential election so far, the move was counterproductive because PDP which is the ruling party, suffered a heavy defeat.

Going by the presidential and National Assembly elections results APC and its governorship candidate, Rev. Father Hycient Alia, are already one leg in Government House in Makurdi.

APC

The party looks good to give the ruling PDP a run for its money in the state. Fr. Hycinth Alia is the rave of the moment and he is enjoying massive followership .With the enthusiastic backing for him in urban and rural areas, pundits have concluded that PDP is gone and APC is coming in the state.

Many claim Alia will win big because the PDP administration owes teachers, pensioners and civil servants etc. Since Ortom is serving out his two terms, the electorates will be free to choose a candidate and a party to liberate the state from the harsh economic situation.

The result of the Presidential Election may have a great impact on the governorship race in Benue state with APC likely to make a haul of votes.

Factors which may determine governorship poll

The Minister for Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, Senator George Akume, remained largely the stabilizing force behind the sustenance and victory of APC in Benue state from 2011 to date. The governorship race will not be different as APC will still depend on his magic wand to pull political stunts and send PDP out of Government House, Makurdi.

Gen Lawrence Onoja, Austine Agada, Nelson Alapa, and Chief John Ochoga will hold tight in Zone C. APC is good to go on March 11.

PDP

For the ruling PDP to make any meaningful impact in the governorship race, it is like a biblical camel passing through the eyes of the needle. Benue PDP came out of the presidential race more divided with blame game.

The last man standing in PDP is the Deputy Governorship candidate Chief John Ngbede, who despite the APC tsunami, held tight to his Apa/ Agatu federal Constituency and retain the seat.

Can Benue PDP bounce back?

Benue PDP got 130,081 votes why Labour Party polled 308,649 votes, bringing the total votes cast 618,840.

The total number of PVCs collected in Benue state is 608,141, out of the total number of 2,607,141 PVC collected. It is hard for PDP to bounce back because with the election of APC’s Tinubu, Benue people will like to associate with national politics.

VERDICT: APC

JIGAWA STATE

The governorship elections in Jigawa State may be more competitive than the presidential and National Assembly elections. The election will be between JIgawa Northeast Senatorial District and Jigawa Southwest Senatorial District, despite the fact that the Northwest Senatorial District also has governorship candidate.

The colour of the governorship election may be based on zonal /district politics and the pedigree of candidates but not political parties. Jigawa state is suffering from Emirate politics since the creation of the state over three decades ago by a former military Head of State, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida.

There are three major contenders in the state for governorship election. They are the state’s Deputy Governor, Malam Umar Namadi of the ruling APC; the PDP which has Dr. Mustapha Sule Lamido and Mr. Aminu Ibrahim Ringim of NNPP.

The Northeast zone /district is pushing hard to produce the next governor of Jigawa because it has not had the opportunity. The electorate in the zone want to make history this time around.

An APC stalwart and member of Namadi/Roller Campaign Council, who is also an indigene of Dakayyawa, Kaugama Local Government Area under the Hadejia zone said: “This is our time. Since the creation of the state in the last 32 years, we have never produced the governor.

“The two other zones produced two governors each. They are Alhaji Ali Saadu Birnin-Kudu and Alhaji Sule Lamido from Jigawa South-West. Senator Ibrahim Saminu Turaki and Governor Badaru Abubakar emerged were from the North-West. It is our turn, nobody would stop us”.

Jigawa Southwest District is seeking governorship slot because of alleged injustice by the other zones. The people of the district are complaining of neglect on development projects and political appointments.

Going by the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections, Jigawa Northeast Senatorial District and JIgawa South-West Senatorial District have demonstrated their determination to produce the next governor of the state. APC candidates won in the Northeast District during the February 25th Presidential and National Assembly elections, the PDP candidates secured tickets in the Southwest Senatorial District. The way the politics is in the state, the Northwest District would determine the choice of the next governor.

VERDICT: APC

NASARAWA STATE

As the clock ticks for the March 11th 2023 governorship election in Nasarawa State, there is apprehension on whether or not Governor Abdullahi Sule of APC will be re-elected for a second term.

He is being challenge by the governorship candidates of PDP, David Umbugadu, that of NNPP Abdullahi Yakubu Maidoya, Mustapha Muhammed Alfa (SDP) and Joseph Ewuga of the Labour Party.

In 2019, David Umbugadu, who was the candidate of the PDP, garnered 184,281 votes to come second to Governor Sule with 327,227 votes. Labaran Maku of APGA came third with 132,784 votes.

The defection of Labaran Maku from APGA to PDP ahead of the 2023 governorship election and  his emergence as the director general of the PDP campaign organization, will bring the 132,784 votes he got in 2019 to add up to Umbugadu’s 184,281 votes to defeat  Sule in the forthcoming poll.

Besides that, all the governorship aspirants who contested against David Umbugadu in the primaries are all supporting the candidature of Umbugadu.

Other stakeholders of the party backing Umbugadu include ex-BOT chairman of PDP, Senator Walid Jibrin, Senators Philip Gyunka and Suleiman Adokwe among others.

Despite its poor performance in the presidential and National Assembly elections where it secured only one senatorial seat and came third in the state with 147,093 votes, PDP in Nasarawa State believes that Sule has not done enough to warrant second term.

The candidate of  NNPP, Abdullahi Yakubu Maidoya who hails from Lafia where the chunk of the state’s votes come from is the only candidate contesting the governorship from the southern zone of the state which comprises  Awe, Obi, Lafia, Doma and Keana Local Government Areas(LGAs). He is hoping to get home support.

He has equally campaigned across the 13 LGAs in the state with a message to make NECO, WAEC and JAMB free for Nasarawa citizens. He also pledged to grant autonomy to LGAs if he is elected. Though with no structure, the party was able to garner 12,715 votes during the February 25th presidential election. NNPP did not win a single seat.

Maidoya might end up dividing Lafia votes to the advantage of David Umbugadu of PDP.

The candidate of the SDP, Muhammed Alfa Mustapha hails from Akwanga Local Government, Area with Sule.

His party won two senatorial seats and two House of Representatives seats. It is safe to say that he will give Sule the run for his money.

Unfortunately, many citizens of the state do not know who the SDP candidate is. He has not been campaigning and those who won National Assembly tickets under SDP have abandoned him. They are also not ready to work for him. But he may benefit from a bandwagon syndrome.

Another candidate who is likely to cause upset if the result of the February 25th presidential election in the state is anything to go by, is the governorship candidate of the Labour Party in the state, Joseph Ewuga. His presidential candidate Obi won Nasarawa State with 191,361 votes.

Though, the party did not field candidates for all elective positions, his fate  in the forthcoming governorship election is in the hands of the anxious Igbo traders and Christian community in the state who trooped out in large number to cast their votes for Obi. If such a commitment is sustained on March 11th, Joseph Ewuga of the Labour Party will be a candidate to beat.

The February 25th presidential and National Assembly elections saw the ruling APC in the state lose the presidential election in the state to Labour Party and the SDP.

While APC lost the election to Labour Party, SDP won two senatorial districts and two House of Representatives seats. APC won three House of Representatives seats and PDP won only one senatorial district.

The results of the National Assembly elections pose huge threats to the chances of the incumbent governor retaining his seat for second term. APC secured 172,922 votes to lose the presidential election to the Labour Party with 191,361 votes.

The genesis of the February election results in Nasarawa State stems from the APC primaries conducted by the Abdullahi Adamu led APC national secretariat where popular candidates were denied tickets. The aggrieved candidates left for SDP and won.

There is a saving grace lurking for Governor Sule. Our correspondent gathered that all the SDP candidates who won the National Assembly elections in the state have vowed to work very hard to ensure that the governor is re-elected.

Speaking to our correspondent, a chieftain of the APC in the state, who spoke in confidence, said: “If you look at the National Assembly elections, you will understand that something was wrong.

“We don’t have SDP in Nasarawa State, it is we APC members that voted for SDP candidates in those national assembly elections. We wanted to prove to APC leadership. Next time, the party will not look down upon people.

“All of us including SDP candidates, who won the elections, are going to return Sule for second term because he has performed very well. I can assure you that the Senator-Elect for Nasarawa West under SDP is already mobilizing support for Sule.

“Sule will win landslide in eight LGAs out of 13 LGAs, Sule of the APC will win in Toto, Nasarawa, Kokona, Keffi, Wamba, Awe, Obi, Keana LGAs.”

“He will run neck and neck with his opponents in Akwanga, Nasarawa Eggon, Lafia and Doma LGAs. So, for us in Nasarawa, the results of last election are not going to affect Governor Sule’s election.”

He said former Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura lost the Nasarawa South Senatorial District due to sentiments. He said the Alagos, who dominated the zone, went for their son against Al-Makura, a Gwamdara minority in the zone.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KATSINA STATE

More than any party in Katsina State, APC is battling for survival in the state. A critical fallout from the Saturday February 25th Presidential Election in Katsina was the prominent role and betrayal played by some APC chieftains. The All Progressives Congress (APC), wielded its sledgehammer on party members whose roles grossly undermined the performance of its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Governor Aminu Bello Masari sacked some appointees, including commissioners and permanent secretaries, and replaced them with new ones.

The ongoing house cleaning by APC may boost its success at the poll on March 11 because all party leaders are under watch. Political analysts in Katsina have predicted that APC stands a greater chance of retaining power in Katsina because of its followership structure in the grassroots, the level of hard work and integrity of its governorship candidate, Dikko Radda and the sagacity of the outgoing Governor Aminu Bello Masari.

Parties are re strategizing

Out of 13 registered political parties in Katsina State which initially fielded governorship candidates  for March 11 poll, only  APC and PDP are still shaping up for the contest. Other parties appeared to have gone to sleep. APC vow to reclaim Katsina by March 11 governorship electionThe Director-General of the Katsina state All Progressives Congress, APC, Campaign Council, Arc. Ahmed Musa Dangiwa declared at a press conference that the party will surely reclaim Katsina State by March 11 Governorship election

He said: “We’ve witnessed how you toiled day in day out until victory was achieved. This wouldn’t have been possible without your tenacity and conviction, and once again we appreciate the effort put in by everyone.”

”I, particularly, acknowledge the contribution of women and youths, who voted massively for our candidates.”

“It is in the same vein that I appeal to you to put in more efforts and put in a decisive show to, once again, defeat our opponents. I don’t have to reiterate that our gubernatorial candidate, Dr. Dikko Umar Radda, and all our other contestants are the candidates to beat in the forthcoming gubernatorial and state assembly elections.”

“So, I once again appeal to you to come out en masse and elect our candidates. It’s only when you put us in power we will be able to continue with the good things that will make your lives better and your future secure.”

 “We are the pacesetters and we must show good examples for others to follow.”

PDP

PDP’s chances in the governorship election have been undermined by the recent political pact between former Governor Ibrahim Shema (who was a former Deputy National Chairman of PDP) and the Katsina state Government, which led to the discontinuation of the N11b corruption charges against the former governor in the state high court. Shema’s political support is widely seen as a major boost to the chances of APC at the polls

The PDP in Katsina State, despite crying wolf and disappointment over the outcome of last Saturday’s elections in the state, especially the National Assembly results, have vowed to clinch Saturday governorship election.

The Director General, Atiku-Lado Campaign Council, Dr.  Mustapha Inuwa, described the outcome of the elections as disappointing.

 He further disclosed that the party had earlier lauded the effort of President Muhammadu Buhari on the cashless policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which aimed at staving off vote buying.

He said: ”As a result of the confidence our party had in the president’s stance on having free and fair elections, we did not bother to have polling agents in some of the wards.”

“We all supported him (the President) on his stance of having free elections. But in his own state of Katsina, inducement was openly done.

INEC also assured the nation that the polls would be credible and that BIVAS would also work”

“We may not have the victory we envisaged, but we are not really concerned because of the circumstances during the elections.”

VERDICT: APC

KEBBI STATE

The presidential and National Assembly elections, have come and gone with a lot of experience which have posed challenges for the ruling party in Kebbi state. There is a bigger challenge for APC in the state ahead of the governorship election on the 11th of March.

The figures are not adding up for APC giving the fact that Governor Atiku Bagudu, who is about to wrap up his second term in office lost his senatorial election (Kebbi Central District) to the incumbent Senator Muhammad Adamu Aliero of PDP.

Also, the incumbent senator representing (Kebbi South District) Sen. Bala Na’Allah lost his senatorial election to PDP candidate. Some House of Representatives seats were also lost to the opposition party in the state alongside the Presidential election,

The failure of the ruling party to deliver during the presidential election was as a result of the crisis between Governor Atiku Bagudu and Sen. Aliero

As the governorship election gradually approaches there are two major political contenders in the race. APC has Dr. Nasir Idris Kauran Gwandu and the PDP has Major-General Aminu Bande (rtd).

Looking at the background of the two leading candidates, voters in the state have a lot to sieve before deciding their choice of the next governor. Dr. Nasiru Idris (Kauran Gwandu) is a teacher and a unionist who had served as the State’s Chairman of NLC; state Chairman of National Union of Teachers (NUT); National Treasurer of NUT; Deputy President of NLC and National President of NUT, respectively. He may likely gain massive support from civil servants and workers in the state.  The APC candidates is a philanthropist, a charity giver, who has helped many people in securing jobs when he was in service. These factors make him stand a better chance.

Although the impact of the PDP candidate was not felt by the people of the state while in the military, he may gain massive support from some parts of the state where insecurity was heightened. Both candidates are working hard to occupy the state’s Government House on March 11th.

However personality factors will determine the voting pattern during the governorship election in Kebbi.

KEBBI: BATTLEGROUND

LAGOS STATE

Sixteen political parties and their candidates are competing for votes in Lagos State in next month’s election. Their campaign billboards, flyers and posters have been adorning and littering public spaces, including highways, markets, motor parks, and buildings. The social media is also awash with all sorts of portrayals that have raised public consciousness.

Similarly, the traditional media of radio, television and newspapers have not been spared in the contest among candidates. Observers of the politics of the state however say there are more pretenders among the candidates than contenders. “Many of the candidates cannot make much impact in the race as they are not known across the state nor are their parties popular in the state,” an analyst said.

Incumbent APC Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is eligible to run for re-election and has been renominated by his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) nominated Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, a former chieftain of the ruling APC, as its gubernatorial flag-bearer. Wave making Labour Party (LP) is presenting Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, who withdrew from the PDP primary last May, in protest against the aspiration of Adediran, as its governorship candidate.

Also in the race for Saturday’s election are Hakeem Dickson (Accord), Tope Abdurrazaq Balogun (Action Alliance), Ishola Bamidele (Action Democratic Party), Abiola Roseline Adeyemi (Action Peoples Party), Akeem Olayiwola (African Action Congress), Funso Doherty (African Democratic Congress) and Funmilayo Kupoliyi (Allied Peoples Movement).

Other candidates and their political parties are Wasiu Olawale Oluwo (Boot Party), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (Labour Party), Olanrewaju Jim-Kamal (New Nigeria Peoples Party), Akinwunmi Ishola Braithwaite (National Rescue Movement), Taofeek Olakunle Uthman (Social Democratic Party), Adebayo Ajayi (Young Progressives Party) and Adekunle Adenipebi (Zenith Labour Party).

But in Lagos, the race is obviously among the APC, PDP and lately, the LP for obvious reasons. Lagos is the base of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the President-elect and standard bearer of the ruling APC. He was governor of the state between 1999 and 2007. He joined other like-minded opposition politicians in 2014 to form the APC. According to the Director-General of Lagos State APC Campaign Committee, Senator Ganiyu Solomon, the APC in Lagos state is reinvigorated to win Saturday’s election, not minding the outcome of the presidential election in the state.

Solomon, who spoke to our correspondent on Thursday, said more voters are expected to troop out during the poll than what happened during the presidential election because efforts are on course to reach out to voters who didn’t vote before to come out and do so. “As a party, we will continue to talk to the good people of Lagos State on the need for them to come out and vote, and vote the APC. And with the performance of our candidate, Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, we are optimistic that victory is ours,” he assured.

However, the PDP is also visible in Lagos. In the last 23 years, the party, as the leading opposition party in the state it has battled the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and now the APC for the control of Lagos State to no avail as it lost the 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 gubernatorial elections to the ruling party. The third party, the Labour Party (LP), which former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi used as a platform to contest last week’s presidential election, had no footing in Lagos before now, but became popular across the state, especially among the Igbo speaking population and some youths, on accounts of their support for Obi’s presidential aspiration.

As it has always been the case, especially with fringe parties in the state, pundits have predicted that just like in the past, many of the gubernatorial candidates in Lagos will soon announce their withdrawal from the race days before the poll and back the candidate of the frontline political parties with chances of winning the governorship set. The ruling party and incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the candidate of the PDP, Jide Adediran, and the LP flag-bearer, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, are favoured to benefit from the expected alliances.

APC/Sanwo-olu

Without dispute, APC is the largest and most formidable party in Lagos State. It has its tentacles in the nooks and crannies of the state; across the five traditional divisions of Lagos, Ikeja, Badagry, Epe and Ikorodu; the three senatorial districts of Lagos Central, Lagos East and Lagos West; the pre-existing 20 local governments and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs). Lagos APC is rated as the most vibrant chapter in the country. The party has been in power in the state for 24 years. Today, all the members of the State Executive Council, led by Sanwo-Olu, belong to the ruling party.

The commissioners, special advisers and assistants, heads of boards and parastatals, reflect the representativeness and inclusive governance in the state. Similarly, all the 40 members of the House of Assembly, led by Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, are APC members. Twenty two of the 24 House of Representatives members belong to APC. Also, all the 57 council chairmen, vice chairmen, councillors, supervisors and other aides are APC members. These grassroots structures have linkages with the various community development associations, which also serve as channels for political mobilisation.

Old political warhorses of Awolowo era across the state who are members of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), are also providing support for the party. The perception of the governor as a performer is expected to shape the poll outcome. But the outcome of last week’s presidential election in the state is raising concerns over the chances of the APC candidates in the gubernatorial and state legislative elections across the state. To many, should the LP repeat its giant killing exploit on Saturday, Sanwoolu and the APC may be in serious troubles.

However, Tinubu’s victory at the presidential election last week is a major factor expected to work in favour of Governor Sanwoolu and the APC in Lagos next Saturday. According to some analysts, many undecided voters will opt to vote for the party that is going to form the government at the centre. “It is called the bandwagon effect. With APC winning the presidential election, we should expect the party to do well in most of the states they slightly lost to the opposition during the presidential election. More people will prefer to see their state enjoy benefits from the federal government.

So, they will vote for the party that is going to form the government at the centre. Lagos is one of such party. In addition, Tinubu is the leader of the APC in Lagos and he is a former governor of the state. The expectation will be that he will do more for the state if a friendly administration is installed in the state. So, Lagos APC is the greatest beneficiary of Tinubu’s victory and it will greatly influence how the people will vote on Saturday across the state,” Akindiji Akinsuyi of the Democratic Forum (DF) said on Thursday.

Already, the leadership of the party in the state, stunned by the loss of the presidential election to the LP last Saturday, is making frantic effort to ensure that the situation is reversed during the governorship election. “The governorship election will be different. The leadership of the party has identified the grey areas and they are being addressed. Some factors beyond our control too were responsible for what happened on Saturday but as a peace loving party, we do not intend to brood over those rather, we are working on how to redress the situation,” a chieftain of the party said.

If performance is enough to win re-election, Sanwoolu should reap votes from the voters in Lagos on Saturday.  Many observers of the politics of the state feel Sanwo-Olu has worked very hard to justify the mandate he got in 2019. Many believe that he has implemented his THEMES agenda with utmost fidelity. There is nowhere supporters had gathered for a rally and Sanwo-Olu is unable to point to developmental projects embarked by his government within the neighbourhood. Lagos has become a huge construction site under the governor, who is daily building on the feats of his three predecessors.

He has built new primary and secondary schools in some areas, upgraded the polytechnic and colleges into universities, slashed tuition fees, upgraded education infrastructure and facilities at the General Hospitals, constructed many roads, intensified work on Opebi/Ojota interchange, developed the water transport, reduced housing deficits, and commenced preliminary works on the proposed

Fourth Mainland Bridge. Also, there is unity in government; between governor and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, between executive and legislature, and between government and the party leadership. In terms of grassroots support, popularity, visibility, numerical strength, clout of candidates and public sympathy, goodwill and solidarity, Lagos APC will have an edge on Saturday. It is also believed that with Peter Obi not on the ballot, many of those who voted for LP during the presidential election for ethnic and religious reasons will not do the same.

A chieftain of the party, Senator Seye Ogunlewe, insisted that the Governor’s achievements make him the candidate to beat in next year’s governorship election in Lagos State. He also said a second term is needed to avoid the disruption of ongoing projects. Ogunlewe said the governor is doing things that are pleasing to Lagosians. “What Sanwo-Olu has been able to achieve in Lagos and what he wishes to complete, it is the wish of Lagosians that he should be allowed to complete them.

“We don’t want disruption again. Breaking of policies has negatively affected Lagos State and we must avoid it at all cost. Sanwo-Olu is best positioned to return as governor. It would be an uphill task for any other candidate to defeat him at the poll,” he said. the governor, who has been bagging endorsements from within and outside the state ahead of the 2023 gubernatorial contest, is expected to also benefit from the victory of his party, the APC in all the three senatorial districts of the state and majority of the federal constituencies.

PDP/Adediran

As usual, the PDP lost the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state last Saturday. But despite its past electoral misfortunes Lagos PDP says it is only down but not out. Speaking on a television programme last Wednesday, Adediran says he is out to win the governorship on Saturday. According to the PDP candidate, PDP will win in the state, noting that what happened at the center will not affect his party in the coming March 11 governorship election.

He said, “What we are speaking to is that we will come out, irrespective of what happened at the centre, and take our state. I am ready. Jandor is ready. I have so many things coming with the sitting government. They are approaching Jandor. Read my lips, I am not backing down. This is the 8th year on this our last lap and we are going to take this Lagos.  It’s not about having our say. We should have our way. We will win Lagos landslide,” he said. Since 1999, crisis-ridden chapter that is retarded by weak structures, the PDP has been challenging the ruling party in the state.

Prominent progressive politicians who defected to the opposition party have retraced their steps to APC. They complained about lack of virile leadership, cohesion and focus. The party is factionalised and many of its leading chieftains have rejected Adediran’s candidature, insisting he is an interloper who came into the party from the APC and cornered the gubernatorial ticket to himself. Previous candidates of the party, – Dapo Sarunmi (1999), Funso Williams (2003), Obanikoro (2007), Ade Dosunmu (2011), Jimi Agbaje ( 2015 and 2019), although popular in the state, all lost to the ruling party.

Pundits say the PDP is at disadvantage ahead of the next election. Never has Lagos PDP been so divided. The party is going into the election without any form of cohesion and this has affected everything from its preparations to its readiness for the governorship poll. Our governorship candidate, Adediran, has been deserted by party elders, who complained that he reneged on the promise to pick their anointed candidate Vivour, as running mate. Many prominent PDP chieftains shunned the governorship campaigns and have refused to direct their supporters to vote for PDP,” Chief Seeni Banire, a chieftain of the party in Surulere, said.

A great damage has been done to the PDP’s prospect by the balkanisation of its support base in Lagos by Labour Party (LP), which as part of its plan to win the state during the 2023 general elections, targeted PDP strongholds in Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Ojo, Amuwo-Odofin, and parts of Surulere, parts of Eti-Osa, where Southeast indigenes are many. With the outcome of the presidential elections in these areas, it may be right to say the non-indigenes population of the state appears to be turning its back on PDP.

With the LP winning almost all the strongholds of the opposition PDP in the state last Saturday, there are fears among members supporters of the party that the gubernatorial election may turn out to be an unimpressive outing for the PDP. But Jandor’s supporters said he is banking on the huge youth population of the state to win the election with his deputy governorship candidate, Funke Akindele, a popular actress. “The election will be different from what obtained on Saturday. Out traditional supporters will return to vote PDP with Obi no longer on the ballot,” Banire said.

The preparedness of the PDP assembly candidates is another factor that is not helping the party ahead of the governorship election. Less than a week to the poll, many PDP assembly candidates are not visible. Unlike the APC candidates which in various constituencies across the state, PDP’s flag-bearers basically restricted their appearances to rallies driven by the governorship candidate. And in places where they managed to put up campaigns, prominent party leaders in the constituencies, who are co-founding fathers of the party, shunned the events in protest over unresolved crisis in the party.

LP/ Rhodes-Vivour

Before now, the LP in Lagos State was not in reckoning. But all that changed when the party stunned the people of the state by winning last week’s presidential election for its candidate, Peter Obi, in the state. The party was first noticed last year when Moshood Salvador, a former state chairman of the PDP, defected to the party from the APC. He tried to pick the gubernatorial ticket but failed. Not much has been heard about him since then. Lagos LP does not have any council chairman, state and federal lawmaker. The presence of the party at most wards and local governments is nil.

Also, the party lacked candidates for many federal legislative positions because of the absence of structure. And it is no fielding candidates for some of the state assembly positions too. However, the party is visible due to the activities of fanatical supporters of its presidential candidate, Obi, called Obidients. Ahead of Saturday’s governorship election, they are encouraged by their victory at the presidential election in the state. Many leaders and members of the LP in the state have been speaking about how they plan to win on Saturday to show that their earlier victory is not a flash in the pan.

The party is again targeting votes for Rhodes-Vivour, their gubernatorial candidate, in former PDP strongholds of Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, and some parts of Oshodi-Isolo, and Eti-Osa LGAs, where they won convincingly last Saturday. As it is pundits say Rhodes-Vivour is the main contender to Sanwoolu in the race for the Lagos State Government House.

The journey of the 40 years old Architect and businessman into politics started in 2007 when he contested for the Ikeja Local Government chairmanship position under the umbrella of the KOWA party. Although he didn’t win the post, his unexpected performance at the poll made him a household name in the area and other parts of the state. In 2019, he contested for and again lost the Lagos West senatorial seat under the PDP to Senator Adeola Olalekan (Yayi) of the ruling party. His emergence as the Labour Party’s governorship candidate in August 2022 after decamping from the PDP, positioned him against Sanwoolu’s aspiration.

Rhodes-Vivour’s chances of winning the governorship race were brightened after Obi and the Labour Party surprised many political pundits by winning the most votes cast at the presidential election in Lagos, defeating APC, Sanwo-Olu’s political party and the ruling party in the state. He has been widely commended for his aggressively campaign for the Labour Party in the state, hammering on the manifesto of “consumption to production,” and free education at the primary and secondary levels, including subsidising it at the tertiary level for Lagos State.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

ENUGU STATE

When the people of Enugu State go to the polls to elect a new governor next week Saturday, March 11, they are expected to make a choice out of 17 candidates from 17 political parties. Before February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections, the candidates for the governorship election in Enugu State were pruned down to the Big Four: the ruling PDP, LP, APGA and APC. They are no doubt the frontline political parties that will be contesting the election in the state.

Checks by The Nation revealed that the four political parties were leaving no stone unturned in their struggle to win the governorship election next week. The parties, it was observed, have been on intense grassroots campaign. However, since after the Presidential and National Assembly elections where Labour Party had a landslide victory, it is obvious that the governorship election in Enugu State is now going to be a contest between the PDP’s Peter Mbah and LP’s Chijioke Edeoga.

This is barring any unforeseen surprises can throw up any of the other two candidates: former minister, Frank Nweke Jnr of APGA and Chief Uche Nnaji of the APC at the eleventh hour. In this analysis, our correspondent assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates.

PDP/ Mbah

Dr. Peter Mbah of the PDP has the power of incumbency on his side. His party, the PDP candidate has been the party in power in Enugu for the past 24 years and he is the personal choice of the incumbent Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. Mbah and his PDP have elevated the 2023 campaigns to an enviable height to the extent that pundits now say that this was the first time PDP in Enugu State would embark on a campaign that has so far captured almost everyone. So far, residents of Enugu State are no longer in doubts about the readiness of the ruling party retaining the state, which it has controlled since 1999.

Notwithstanding the fact that he is the favorite to win the election, Mbah still considers anyone or group that matters in the development of the state as key to his victory. To that effect, no day passes without him visiting communities and groups to assist him win the election and help him realize his dream of making Enugu everyone’s dream. Mbah also boasts of a formidable track record in academics and public service. He has been a commissioner for finance and later, chief of staff to then governor of Enugu State, Chimaraoke Nnamani.

Since leaving public service, Mbah joined the private sector, where he has left an indelible mark a builder of business of a flourishing enterprise. His supporters point to his achievements as the owner and chief executive officer of Pinnacle Oil, which today has one of the largest oil tank farms in the country, to advance the argument that Mbah is a top notch technocrat expected to take the economy of Enugu State to greater heights.

Mbah also appears to have struck the right balance on the issue of zoning – a major factor in Enugu politics where the cultural zones determine who goes for them when it comes to the governorship position. In view of this, stakeholders from Enugu East Senatorial District, including traditional rulers, religious leaders, trade unions, market leaders, among others, rose in unison to adopt him as their sole candidate for the governorship election.

Most significant of the endorsements were the ones coming from the former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani and some APC leaders in the zone. He has equally garnered endorsements from former governor of Old Anambra State, Senator Jim Nwobodo, amongst others.

But Mbah is not without weak points which may discourage voters from electing him as governor of Enugu State. His party, PDP, lost seven out of the eighth federal constituencies in the state during the last national assembly election. Also, the party leader in the state, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, equally lost his bid to go to the Senate to LP. This has affected the confidence of his party members and demoralized the party in the state despite getting victory for Enugu West senatorial seat and Nkanu West/East Federal Constituency seat.

Also, despite the efforts by the leaders of the party to ensure there was no legal encumbrances following the outcome of the party’s governorship primaries, there seems to be troubles lurking around Mbah’s emergence as PDP candidate and nibbling around the party’s chances of retaining the seat. This time from outside the party as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Senatorial candidate for Enugu North Senatorial District, Comrade Chika Emmanuel Idoko, had gone to court to seek the disqualification of all candidates of the PDP listed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), for the elections, for alleged breaches of the Electoral Act.

Though, the matter has been struck out for lack of locus, LP and APC are still in pursuit of the matter in different courts. Idoko had alleged that the PDP violated provisions of the Electoral Act, which prescribes a minimum number of days a party should serve its notice on INEC before conducting its party primaries for purposes of producing candidates. Also, there is another issue bordering on certificate forgery allegation against him which is being intensified by the opposition. It was alleged that Mbah forged the discharged certificate of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC).

LP/Edeoga

Chijioke Edeoga is the LP governorship candidate. He is regarded as an experienced and accomplished politician, who has risen through the ranks to where he is now. He had held positions as a member of the House of Representatives, local government chairman and commissioner. He also served as an adviser on Legislative matters to the then Deputy President of the Nigerian Senate, Senator Ekweremadu from where he was appointed as the Special Assistant to Former President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan on National Assembly Matters from 2011 – 2015. His supporters count his experience as one that can easily distinguish him and help him perform if given the opportunity.

Before the last election, his supporters saw him as the only candidate running the election against the ruling PDP. This, one of them claimed, was the reason he has been receiving very vicious attacks from the PDP supporters. But now, just one week to the election, Edeoga’s supporters are seeing him as governor-in-waiting.

He, too, is smarting from the massive victory his Labour Party has so far recorded in the last election in the state, winning one senatorial seat and seven House of Representatives seats out of eight in the state. Speaking with newsmen after the national elections, Edeoga said that his party would consolidate on the outcome of the previous elections, by nipping in the bud all rigging plans of their rivals in the state.

Edeoga is also buoyed by his recent victory at the Supreme Court where he was affirmed as the authentic governorship candidate of Labour Party. He said that victory in court was victory against the government and ruling party, who he accused of funding Evarest Nnaji to distract him in the court with frivolous court matter. Though, he has not been very flamboyant in his campaigns, Edeoga has been consistently systematic in his campaigns, going from community to community to sell his programmes. Edeoga is also seen as a politician who has a clean record.

According to some of his supporters, his greatest support base lies in the Nsukka cultural zone, where he is said to have his lineage as well as Oji River, where his running mate comes from. He is also believed to have made serious inroads within the state capital. Though, he hails from Isi-Uzo LGA in Enugu East Senatorial District, it was however gathered that owing to their belief that Edeoga is one of them, most of the political bigwigs in the six local government areas in Nsukka, are seriously rooting for him as their candidate. They are said to be major financiers of Edeoga’s campaigns.

Edeoga is also well positioned by the fact that the LP has a very large following in Enugu because of Peter Obi, an analyst said. “Don’t take it away from him, he understands the political terrain. He has been a local government chairman, a House of Representatives member and commissioner. He has advantage. He comes from Enugu East Senatorial Zone and has three other major candidates from the same Enugu East. Now, the other three candidates, Nnaji of APC, Mbah of PDP and Nweke of APGA come from the core Nkanu while Edeoga is the only candidate outside Nkanu. So, it is expected that the three candidates from Nkanu would fight for and the divide the votes in the area, then leaving Edeoga alone in his Isi-Uzo,” he said.

Edeoga’s only major weakness is the fact that Enugu State stakeholders, who are majorly of the PDP, will like to fight back to retain the state at all costs. Sources within his camp revealed that the LP candidate and his handlers are not oblivious of the efforts by the PDP leadership in the state to truncate his chances on Saturday. “But we are not leaving anything to chances. We are poised to win this election,” an aide said.

APGA/Nweke Jnr

Frank Nweke Jnr is the governorship candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). He has served as minister of the Federal Republic. Before that, he was the chief of staff to then governor, Chimaraoke Nnamani. Nweke Jnr is regarded as charismatic and highly intelligent. He has bright ideas, charm and charisma needed to govern a clean state like Enugu. Above all, he seems to know the problems of the state and has enormous ideas on how to tackle them and place Enugu on the map of greatness.

He has been very dogged in his campaigns, reaching out to villages and kindreds with the firm belief that with the new Electoral Act, he is on his way to winning the election. Part of his confidence is that the level of discontent in the state had been very significant. As a result, the people would change their voting pattern in the next election to his favour. However, his outing is seen as giving Edeoga and LP advantage because he hails from Nkanu where his PDP and APC counterparts also hail from.

This means that he would have to work extra hard to get the votes of the people of the area and by extension the entire state. Another challenge is that though, APGA is a ruling party in the neighbouring Anambra State, but before Nweke joined the party, nothing much was heard about it in Enugu State.

APC/Uche Nnaji

Uche Nnaji is the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Nnaji’s party can be said to be the largest opposition political party in the state despite incursions by the Labour party. He and APC have also tried to make impressions by touring the 260 wards in the state. Though, most of the residents hardly know him, the APC candidate prides himself as a business mogul, who owns oil well and a chunk of stakes in a refinery outside Nigeria.

His party has already won the presidential election and it is expected that this should boost his chances of making greater impacts on March 11. He believes that Enugu State deserves a governor like him, who would develop the state without depending on federal allocations. Nnaji, who was a high profile politician in 1999 before he took a break, is now backed by his close associate and governor of Imo State, Senator Hope Uzodimma, a factor which many believe makes him the man to beat in the election.

One of the major weaknesses of the APC candidate is the feeling among the people of Enugu State is that his wealth is hardly felt in the state, particularly, in his area. Nnaji is also seen as media-shy as he does not do enough to sell himself to the voters through the media. Significantly, since his emergence as the candidate of the party, major stakeholders of the party in the state, have since abandoned the party following intractable intraparty crisis.

Nnaji, who has now inherited the crisis that has ridden the party in the past four years, has led to such leaders as the former governor, Sullivan Chime; former Senate president, Senator Ken Nnamani, the minister of foreign affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama, among many others abandoning his governorship project for other parties. Despite the fact that APC has won the presidential election, it does not seem to translate to positive effect on Nnaji’s candidature.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

EBONYI STATE

Chief Martin Elechi, former governor of Ebonyi state in the build up to the 2015 general elections acknowledged that though the founding fathers of the state who led the push for the state’s creation drafted a charter of Equity, they did not get around to signing and ratifying it. Elechi, who hails from Ikwo local government area led the founding fathers to push for the state’s creation. However, since two power blocs, Abakaliki and Afikpo blocs formed the state, the two blocks had a gentleman’s agreement to share power and rotate power between the two blocks.

By sharing power, the two zones agreed that whenever one bloc gets the governorship position, the deputy will go to the other bloc. For example, Governor David Umahi is from Ohaozara in the Ebonyi South (Afikpo bloc) while his deputy, Kelechi Igwe is from Ikwo (Abakaliki bloc). Elechi was from Ikwo while his two deputy governors, Chigozie Ogbu (2007-2011) and Umahi (2011-2015) were from Onicha and Ohaozara respectively all in Afikpo bloc.

With Abakaliki bloc having two senatorial zones, one of the zones which didn’t get the deputy governorship or governorship position always gets the third highest political position in the state, which is the Speaker of the state House of Assembly. In 1999, Sam Egwu from Ngbo/Izhia clan, took the governorship position. After him Elechi from Ikwo served two terms before handing over to Umahi from Ebonyi South zone. With Umahi, set to complete his second term next year it was expected that power rotation among the three zones will start afresh since the three zones have had their turns.

However, there arose controversy, division and disagreement over where the new rotation will start from. Note that the previous power rotations were made easy by the fact that the PDP was the dominant party in the state. However, the defection to APC of Governor Umahi meant the PDP lost control of the state and became an opposition. It however retained a larger proportion of stakeholders who control the localities. After the primaries, the PDP surprisingly nominated Ifeanyi Odii, from Onicha in Ebonyi South as its candidate. The APC nominated Francis Nwifuru, current Speaker of Ebonyi House of Assembly as its govermoahip candidate.

Elsewhere, the All Progressive Grand Alliance chose Bernard Odoh as its governorship candidate. He is from Ezza North in Ebonyi Central. This meant that the three zones each have a candidate for tye election. However, the election of Odii has been faulted by the Abakaliki bloc who has a larger number of the voters. Their grouse is that Odii is not only from the South but also from Ohanivo block where the present governor is from. The argument is that even if the rotation is to start from the south, the Afikpo block should be allowed to be the one to produce the next governor.

In Abakaliki block, the emergence of both Odoh and Nwifuru is seen as an opportunity for the PDP and Odoh to clinch the ticket. This is because the two candidates are expected to divide the votes of Abakaliki block and give rise to a situation where Odii will emerge victory if he can garner majority of the votes in Ebonyi South zone and some votes from minority clans in Abakaliki block. The Izzi, in backing Nwifuru, argue that since the rotation started from Ebonyi North, it should re-start from the zone and that means the clan stand to produce the next governor since Ngbo/Izhia has had its turn

The Ezza clan, however, disagree arguing that since it is a new power rotation it can start from any of the two zones hence their decision to back their son, Bernard Odoh.

APC/Nwifuru

Nwifuru represents Izzi West constituency in the State House of Assembly and a core loyalist of Governor David Umahi. He is the Speaker of the Assembly, a position he has held for 7 years now. He is from Izzi clan and Izzi local government. The zoning permutation favours him and his party. His party with the prodding of Umahi shared all the positions equitably.

It zoned the deputy governorship to Afikpo and the senate to Ohanivo in the South while in the central, it has worked the speakership position for the zone while zoning the Senate to Ezza clan and the reps seat to Ikwo. Nwifuru is seen as an anointed successor to governor David Umahi, a toga he has laboured to wean himself of insisting that he is an independent mind who will not be controlled by the outgoing governor if voted in. His party did well in national assembly election but that cannot be the yardstick for determining who will win the governorship.

APGA/Odoh

Odoh is a professor of Geophysics. He is from Ezra North council in Ebonyi Central. The Ezza clan has never produced a governor and they see in Odoh a man who can bring the coveted position to the clan. He is likely to win the two or three local governments in the central zone where he the Ezzas are predominant. Outside of that he will find it difficult to get sizeable votes to help him win. His party is not very popular in the State and does not have a strong structure outside of his Ebonyi central zone.

PDP/Odii

He is from Onicha Council in Ebonyi Oauth zone. Zoning does not favour him but he has insisted that rotation can start from anywhere. A businesan, Mr Odii has promised massive industrialisation and empowerment of the youths of the State to stem the tide of insecurity and communal crisis bedeviling the State. However, going by the results of the just concluded National Assembly election, it appears that he and his party are in for a difficult outing.

His party, PDP, could only get just one National Assembly seat out of the 9 up for grabs. It has 8 of the positions in its kitty going into the election. The APC, LP and APGA had a better outing than the PDP in most local governments. In fact, many Leaders of the PDP reportedly worked against the party’s candidates in the polls. His emergence from an acrimonious primary election last year threw the party into serious crisis and division which it has not been able to sort out.

Governorship elections are hotly contested in Ebonyi and with the incumbent not on the ballot and the rotation concluded, there is great uncertainty as to who will emerge victorious in the election.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

DELTA STATE

The March 11 governorship election coming up in Delta state may, yet, mirror the just concluded presidential poll which the Labour Party won with a wide margin. Against all odds, Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, polled 341,866 votes against PDP’s 161,600 and APC’s 90,183, to win in eighteen local government areas with the PDP picking the remaining seven. But can the Labour Party reenact that feat in the Delta gubernatorial election, or will it be a straight fight between APC and PDP?

Will the APC winning the presidential poll have a positive impact on the governorship results? While another Labour Party victory may be plausible, many factors may conspire to rob it of victory, despite the momentum generated by the Peter Obi movement and inadvertently brighten APC’s chances. A major factor against a repeat of the February 25 feat may be apathy and disinterest among LP supporters after Peter Obi failed to win the presidential election.

According to some analysts, many voters that participated in the presidential poll did so because Peter Obi was on the ballot. And with him not on the ballot, they predict a marked change in focus to local issues. They believe LP supporters may struggle to replicate the same level of enthusiasm displayed during presidential poll at the gubernatorial election, creating a leeway for the comeback of either the APC or PDP.

An analysis of poll results show that the Labour Party effect was more impactful in Delta North, where it won eight local government areas, than in Delta Central and South Senatorial Districts where it lost six local government areas. Ika North East, where Gov Okowa hails from, is the only local government area that escaped the Labour Party beating in Delta North. With the APC winning Delta Central and South Senatorial Districts, coupled with the victory of President-elect Bola Tinubu, the party’s push for the Delta governorship seat may enjoy added impetus.

The polarisation within PDP ranks occasioned by disagreement over Okowa’s choice as governor may blight the PDP’s chances with the APC, the main beneficiary. Ex-Governor James Ibori and leader of the PDP, who has had a faceoff with incumbent Governor Ifeanyi Okowa over the party’s governorship candidate, may pose a grave danger to the ruling party’s chances.

Although a member of the PDP, Ibori has been lukewarm in his support for his party during the electioneering season. He has been in open romance with the opposition APC, even attending their social events. Losing Ibori’s support to the opposition may help the opposition party’s cause. PDP may also suffer a backlash from civil servants , many, who are LP supporters and form a significant number of the electorate in Delta North, may cast a protest block vote for the opposition to spite the PDP.

With APC winning the presidential poll, it has become the beautiful bride and some political parties may collapse their structure for the opposition to stay relevant in the scheme of things. Essentially, the gubernatorial race in Delta is a two horse race between DSP Ovie Omo-Agege of APC and Delta Speaker Sheriff Oborevwori of PDP but the LP candidate, Ken Pela’s campaign has been tepid and uninspiring. He may face an impossible task dislodging APC and PDP, except the unexpected happens.

Aside the two arch rivals PDP and APC, other political parties in the governorship race are All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) with Olorogun Great Ogboru as governorship candidate, Social Democratic Party (SDP) with Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi as its flagbearer. Others include YPP led by its gubernatorial candidate, Mr Sunny Ofehe and NNPP’s Dr Goodnews Agbi and a host of fringe parties.

Deputy Senate President, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege is the Delta APC governorship candidate. He is a two time senator representing Delta Central in the NASS. He came to political limelight under the administration of ex-Governor James Ibori in 2003, after he was appointed a special assistant and thereafter commissioner (Special Duties). He rose to the position of Secretary to Delta state government, a position he resigned from in 2007 to pursue his political ambitions.

In 2015, he contested and won the Delta Central Senatorial District election and was re-elected in 2019. He rose to the position of Deputy Senate President. That position has enabled him to surpass his predecessors in terms of the projects attracted to his constituency and contributions to lawmaking at the red chambers. The Delta APC, unable to attract high profile personalities in the past due to internal crisis, has become a beautiful bride in Delta politics, benefitting from the gale of defections that has left the ruling PDP reeling. Undoubtedly, his emergence as APC governorship candidate in the 2023 general elections has made the opposition party a force to reckon with.

To his credit, Omo-Agege along with other party leaders, has transformed the fortunes of the party hobbled by crisis to a formidable opposition capable of upstaging the ruling PDP. Omo-Agege is a charismatic grassroots politician with cult followership, especially among the Urhobo ethnic groups in Delta Central on account of the democratic dividends they have enjoyed during his tenure as a federal legislator. On the campaign trail, he has led a robust campaign across the length and breadth of the state, personally leading the ward-to-ward campaigns, engaging stakeholders on his party’s manifesto and forging critical alliances across the three senatorial districts in the state.

While unveiling his party’s 60 page manifesto christened “EDGE” to Build a New Delta (BAND), Omo-Agege maintained it was the product of “profound thought based on my practical experience both in the executive and legislative arms of government.” He said “EDGE” covers critical areas of governance that would drive his administration’s agenda if elected governor. His words, “The manifesto is our Vision and Mission; it captures EDGE which breaks down as: E for Employment and Empowerment; D for Development (Economic, Infrastructural and Industrial); G for Good Governance, and E for Enduring Peace and Security.”

He said the EDGE agenda sums up the hopes and aspirations of Deltans for economic stability, sustainable employment, security, and access to modern public infrastructure, solid institutions, and a clean environment. Continuing, “It is strategically organized to make ours a model state and a leading centre of excellence. With EDGE, we bring credibility, efficiency and trust back to governance. It is the ultimate paradigm shift to reform our public service, cut the cost of governance, eliminate waste, and deny corruption and other crimes comfort and safety in our governance architecture. EDGE agenda is our firm promise and its success is non-negotiable.

“My plan as stated in our manifesto will change the commercial ecosystem of the State and create an investment-friendly charter that makes access to funds and infrastructure a natural way of life. Human capital development, agriculture, tourism, infrastructure, housing and other labour-intensive interventions will be at the core of our agenda. We shall establish a Delta State Employment, Entrepreneurship and Empowerment Programme (DEEP), and facilitate the establishment of cluster industries in each of the twenty-five Local Government Areas of our State. We will deliberately create an enabling environment for industries and manufacturing; establish tech hubs, set up small business loan guarantee schemes, promote skills acquisition and set up a Career Development Centre for Deltans.”

Sheriff Oborevwori is the Speaker of the Delta state. He hails from Osubi, Okpe LGA, in Delta Central Senatorial District.Oborevwori, is without a doubt, a formidable opponent in any political contest, especially with the support of the behemoth Delta PDP. He is a grassroots politician who has paid his dues. In 1996, Oborevwori was elected councilor and appointed Supervisory Councilor for Works in Okpe Local Government Council.

He was the pioneer chairman, Osubi community from 1996 to 2003. Following his contributions to the development of Osubi Community, he was given the chieftaincy title the “Ukodo of Okpe Kingdom in 2003 by His Royal Majesty, the Orhorho 1, Orodje of Okpe Kingdom. He also served as a political aide under ex-Governors Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan and Chief James Ibori as a Senior Special Assistant (Security).

However, he broke into limelight in 2015 after he was elected as the member representing Okpe State Constituency in the Delta State House of Assembly under the People’s Democracy Party (PDP). He was elected Speaker of Delta State House of Assembly on 11 May 2017 following the impeachment of the then Speaker, Rt. Hon. Monday Igbuya. He was re-elected in 2019 as Speaker for a second term and credited with being the Speaker serving the longest tenure.

The PDP has embarked on a vigorous campaign across the entire state selling his candidacy. His political manifesto is anchored on the M.O.R.E agenda, geared towards “consolidating and extending the gains of the current administration”. According to him, “It is designed to continue and expand the infrastructural and human capital development programmes of the Okowa administration”. M.O.R.E is an acronym for -Meaningful Development, Opportunities for All, Realistic Reforms, and Enhanced Peace and Security.

The race for Dennis Osadebey House promises to be epic battle. Though hobbled by crisis, the PDP will not wring its fingers in despair, but will fight back to retain power. Only time will tell where the pendulum will swing come March 11th.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KWARA STATE

The February 25 presidential and National Assembly election has come and gone. But the surprises the results of the election sprang still linger in the memory of both the losers and winners in Kwara state. The outcome of the poll is having a reverberating effect on the camps of all the political parties ahead of the March 11th governorship and House of Assembly election in the state.

APC candidates swept all the six House of Representatives seats and the three senatorial seats at the poll, thus, consigning former Senate President Bukola Saraki of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the political backwaters in the state. All his candidates including a former Youths and Sports Minister lost in the election to the APC candidates. Notwithstanding, all the governorship candidates have gone back to the drawing board to map out their winning strategies.

Interestingly, all but one, of the five governorship candidates, are from the Ilorin Emirate. They include the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate and incumbent Governor AbdulRaman Abdulrazaq, Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate and son of the late governor Mohammed Alabi Lawal, Hakeem, New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNDP) flag-bearer, Prof Shuaib AbdulRaheem and Young Progressives Party (YPP) candidate, Waziri Yakubu Gobir. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s candidate, Alhaji Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi is of Nupe extraction from Kwara north senatorial district.

Mixed reactions have continued to trail the victory of APC at the poll as it relates to the party’s chances in about two Saturday’s time. Some political watchers and pollsters in the state are saying the victory is a good signal for APC at the March 11th ousting. Others have argued that other parties especially PDP might still bounce back to reckoning. Others have posited that coalition of opposition parties expressly convoked to unseat the current APC government in the state is also in the offing.  Others are of the opinion that the APC at the presidential and NASS election will have a bandwagon effect of the March 11 poll.

PDP/Abdullahi

Alhaji Abdullahi of the PDP resigned his commissionership at the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Commission to contest the PDP governorship primaries, banking on the party’s resolve to zone the slot to Kwara north. Yaman as he is popularly referred to was an APC governorship aspirant in 2019 and a member of the Otoge movement that ushered in the current administration in the state.

Irreconcilable political differences and perhaps Governor Abdulrazaq’s style of governance made him part ways with the former. The PDP candidate is optimistic of springing surprises at the poll despite its abysmal performance in the NASS election in the state Senator Saraki is fighting tooth and kneel to stage a comeback to the political reckoning of the state.

APC/Abdulrazaq

Governor Abdulrazaq’s incumbency stands in good stead to emerge victorious at the poll, some political analysts have argued. His legendary humility and some of his masses oriented programmes are additional advantage for him. Little wonder, he had received endorsements from unusual quarters like the Kwara Artisan Congress, Okada Riders Association and Tricycle Owners Association of Nigeria (TOAN). Not too long ago, a pollster known as ANAP Foundation rated him higher than all other contestants. But the PDP pilloried the pollster describing the opinion poll as baseless, laughable and far from reality.

Also, Chief of Staff to President Muhammadu Buhari, Prof Ibrahim Gambari praised AbdulRazaq’s efforts in bringing economic development to the people of Kwara State as demonstrated by his timely collaboration between the Kwara State Government and the UNDP on cash transfer economic empowerment project that he noted will impact lives and change destinies.” One personality that has been the unique selling point (USP) of APC in the Kwara central and for Governor AbdulRazaq is the Senator-elect for the district, Mallam Saliu Mustapha. Saliu Mustapha known for over a decade old, legendary’s contributions for the upliftment of the lots of the vast majority of Kwarans especially Ilorin indigenes, is a plus for APC.

And the philanthropist has been going about selling the candidature of the governor and other APC candidates. This will definitely stand the governor and other House of Assembly candidates in good stead. Not taking the APC’s victory at the presidential and NASS election for granted, Mallam AbdulRazaq recently led a thank-you-visit to the Emir of Ilorin Ibrahim Sulu-Gambari following the presidential election. He sought the Emir’s continuous guidance over the coming gubernatorial and House of Assembly elections.

SDP/ Lawal

Hakeem Lawal is basking in the euphoria of the aged-long love and affection the people of Ilorin Emirate have for his late father. Hakeem was also part of the Otoge movement. Some people are even saying when push comes to shove SDP candidate might cave in for APC’s. In spite of his party dismal performance at the February 25th, presidential and National Assembly elections, the son of the late military officer is confident of springing surprises at the March 11th governorship and state House of Assembly elections.

He blamed SDP poor outing at the last elections on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in polling units in some wards.  “We are confident of victory. We have that conviction and belief that at the end of the day we shall coast home victory. Our style of campaign is to go to the grassroots and meet with the stakeholders on one-on-one basis. We have met with artisans, commercial drivers and tricylists, market women and the likes and they have assured us of their support,” he said.

YPP/Gobir

Waziri Yakubu Gobir, who doubles as the Madawaki of Ilorin, is reputed for his legendary philanthropic gesture. He is commanding following among the hoi polloi of the society. He also fell apart with Governor Abdulrazaq shortly after the 2019 governorship election.

NNDP/AbdulRaheem

Prof Shuaib AbdulRaheem was also at the forefront of the Otoge revolution. The septugenarian former University of Ilorin Vice Chancellor contested the SDP primaries with Hakeem Lawal and lost. Dissatisfied, he dumped the party for NNDP.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

OGUN STATE

In Ogun State, the contest has always been between APC, which is the ruling party in the state, and PDP. In spite of the fact that an intra-party struggle for the leadership of the latter weakened the opposition in the state, the Sikiru Ogundele-led State Executive Committee (SEC) it managed to keep its challenge to APC alive all through the campaign season so much so that some analysts predicted that the party may spring a surprise at the governorship election and unseat the seating governor. The two parties continued their rivalry all the way to the presidential contest last Saturday.

But the outcome of the presidential poll, which saw the PDP losing massively to the ruling party changed the outlook of next Saturday’s contest in the state. APC scored 341,554 votes while PDP got 123,831 votes in the presidential election. The APC also won all the National Assembly seats across the state, leaving the opposition PDP without any. The ruling party won the three senatorial seats and all the House of Representatives seats in Ogun State. With that, pundits are saying Saturday’s gubernatorial election may be a smooth sail for Governor Dapo Abiodun of the APC contrary to earlier projections.

For the LP, its presence is largely felt in Abeokuta, the state capital and Ijebu-Ode in the East Senatorial District. “Beyond these two major towns, it is only in the Sango Ota axis that you can see anything that has to do with Labour Party. This is due to the closeness of that area to Lagos State,” Comrade Bode Adu, Ogun State Secretary of the Joint Action Coalition for Democracy (JACD), told our correspondent. This position was proven by the result of the presidential election which saw the LP candidate winning sizeable votes in the aforementioned parts of the state. Beyond that, LP is not expected to make much impact on Saturday.

Besides, the ongoing face-off between the suspended National Publicity Secretary of LP, Abayomi Arabambi and the leadership of the party, has further weakened the party in Ogun. “Arabambi is the embodiment of LP in Ogun State. He is the one who popularised the party here. He was its state chairman and gubernatorial candidate at different times. Without Arabambi, there is no LP in Ogun,” Adu said. The Nation also gathered that the embattled LP chieftain and his supporters may not work for the party on Saturday.

APC/Abiodun

APC’s victory at the presidential election in the state has confirmed its hold on the politics of the state. By winning all the National Assembly seats across the state, Governor Abiodun and the ruling party have put a lie to claims by some pundits that the party is unpopular in some parts of the state, especially Ogun Central senatorial district where former Governor Ibikunle Amosun hails from. His running battle with the governor and the leadership of the party was a serious source of concern before last Saturday’s election.

Amosun had endorsed the governorship and National Assembly candidates of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) before last Saturday. But the candidates of the ADC failed to win any seat at the National Assembly poll, even in Amosun’s Abeokuta stronghold. Almost all the political bigwigs in the state are members of the APC. To start with, all former governors of the state alive today are APC chieftains. Former Governor Segun Osoba has been the leader of APC in the state since inception while Amosun, in spite of his lingering face-off with Governor Abiodun, has never left the party since it was formed.

In February 2021, former Governor Gbenga Daniel officially defected to APC, barely two years after serving as Director-General of the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign Organisation at the last presidential election. He had in March 2019 officially resigned from the party, saying he was pulling out from partisan politics. He later joined the APC and emerged as its senatorial candidate in Ogun East. Last Saturday, he won election to emerge as the senator of the district.

Aside the three former governors, the APC in Ogun boasts of almost all former Deputy Governors and ex-National Assembly members. Across the three senatorial districts, the party enjoys the support of the major leaders, leaving the opposition with starters and a few notable figures. In Ogun West, the new found political collaboration among the camps of Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi), Hon. Abiodun Akinlade (Baba Adeen), and Gboyega Isiaka (GNI), according to analysts, will again deliver the votes for the APC on Saturday.

Former minister, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo, former Deputy Governor, Alhaja Salmat Badru and former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Suraj Adekunbi, are also in APC. Incumbent Deputy Governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Vice Director-General of the Ogun State APC Campaign Council from Ogun West, Chief Jide Ojuko, House of Representatives member-elect for Ado-Odo/Ota Federal Constituency, Tunji Akinosi, Chief Kunle Salako, Chief Sikiru Adegbite, and several other prominent leaders in the district are poised to work for the success of the party again.

Claims by PDP that it has recaptured Ogun West during its campaign may not be true after all, going by its abysmal performance in the zone during the National Assembly election. The party failed to win a single seat as APC won the senatorial district and the three House of Representatives seat in the zone. Until its swift move in getting Ipokia-born Adekunle Akinlade, the 2019 governorship candidate of the APM, to pair with Adebutu as its deputy governorship candidate, PDP was almost going without a presence in Ogun West. Its senatorial candidate in the zone, Chief Ganiu Dada (Oluwo-Itoki, Otta – Aworiland), is regarded as a new comer to the politics of the state.

No doubt, PDP lacks the support base currently being enjoyed by APC in Ogun West. Chief Alani Akinde, Elder Sunday Soledolu, Asiwaju Oriyomi, Chief Tolu Bankole and Chief Lisa Adejobi are the few names the party can boasts of ahead of the election. This obviously explains why PDP made little or no impact in the presidential and national assembly elections.

Ogun East is also looking good for APC as Abiodun and Daniel lead the party in the zone. While the governor is seeking re-election, Daniel is the senator-elect of the zone. Both Senator Gbenga Kaka and Lekan Mustapha are also in APC. In spite of the presence of Adebutu, the PDP governorship candidate in the zone, the outcome of the presidential election in the zone has shown that the PDP is not likely to pull much wait on Saturday. Besides, the votes from the senatorial district alone won’t be enough to make Adebutu governor.

Immediate past Post Master General of the Federation, Asiwaju Bisi Adegbuyi, Senator Dipo Odujirin, Otunba Oluseyi Oduntan, a former Managing Director of the Honeywell Group, Olusegun Olumide-Senbanjo, Deji Ashiru popularly known as EDA, Hon. Biyi Adeleye, and many other prominent politicians are all ready to repeat the party’s performance during last Saturday’s election in the state. The party boasts of the best structures in the state having been in charge of the governance for twelve years without interruption.

Currently, the APC also has its members as the federal legislators representing eight out of the nine federal constituencies of the state, leaving PDP with only Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside where Hon. Adesegun Adekoya holds the seat. This is expected to work in favour of Governor Abiodun on Election Day. Presently, the Ogun State House of Assembly consists of 25 members of the APC and one member of the PDP. This is also seen as a huge advantage for the APC candidate. All council chairmen and councilors in the state are APC members.

With about eighty chieftains of the party, spread across the state, serving in Abiodun’s cabinet as commissioners, special advisers, consultants, and senior special assistants, all ready to ensure the APC win on Saturday, the ruling party appears to be more favoured to carry the day.

PDP/Adebutu

The PDP, in spite of its unending crisis, also boasts of widespread presence in the state. Though factionalised, the party has managed to retain its popularity in some parts, especially in Ogun East where both the late Kashamu and Adebutu, hail from. However, the party has lost most of its heavyweights to APC since the last general elections, largely due to the unending internal wrangling that bedeviled it since 2011. Sadly, the remnant of the party is also divided into factions. Pundits say these factors are responsible for PDP’s abysmal outing last Saturday.

After months of litigation over the party’s gubernatorial ticket, the factions recently announced a truce. But observers say the olive branch is not total as there are a lot of issues still unresolved. The Kashamu faction had berated the party’s NWC for recognising Adebutu as the gubernatorial candidate. Some of the litigations that followed are still in court though an Appeal Court verdict in favour of Adebutu brought respite to the troubled party few weeks ago.

It is also not clear if the Samson Bamgbose-led faction that produced Jimi Lawal as its gubernatorial candidate will work for the gubernatorial aspiration of Adebutu. Already, there are rumours that the faction may be planning to work against the PDP candidate in solidarity with Otunba Jimi Lawal who battled Adebutu in the struggle for the gubernatorial ticket of the party. Should that happen, the opposition party will be going into Saturday’s election with ‘half engine’ and this can only compound its vulnerability at the polls.

The opposition party is further limited by the fact that it does not have political office holders in office currently. Save for Hon. Adesegun Adekoya, the Rep member representing Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside in the National Assembly, and the Ijebu North I state constituency representative, Abiodun Sylvester, the party cannot boast of any elected or appointed political office holder anywhere in the state. This, pundits say, will affect it adversely at the governorship elections.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

OYO STATE

Governorship candidates in the March 11 poll in Oyo State will face an unusually tough race this time as realignments have taken the centre stage after the presidential election. Candidate of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, won the presidential election with a wide margin in the state, thereby shoring up the chances of the APC governorship candidate Sen. Teslim Folarin. Conversely, the development put the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and the incumbent governor Seyi Makinde under pressure as election day draws nearer.

Tinubu polled 449, 884 to beat his closest rival Atiku Abubakar of the PDP who polled 182, 977. Labour Party came distance third with 99, 110 votes, Accord had 39,514 votes while the NNPP scored 4,095 votes. The APC also won the three senatorial elections and a won a good number in the 14 House of Representatives seats in the state. The following factors will shape the governorship election in the state.

PDP/Makinde

The performance of Governor Seyi Makinde in the last four years will partly determine how much vote he gets in the election. His achievements in the areas of workers welfare, infrastructure, education and personal humility will earn him plenty of votes. Of specific importance are communities such as Iseyin, Ogbomoso and parts of Ibadan which benefitted immensely from such projects and policies.

Though opposition parties are relentless in faulting the projects and policies, a lot of residents still regard them and acknowledge their contributions to the development of the state.

As expected, the governor’s shortcomings may count against him in the election. For instance, he is supporting hoodlums under the cover of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) who were perpetrating violence until their leader Mukaila Lamidi (aka Auxilliary) was arraigned late last year. His support for the hoodlums has attracted him more dislikes among members of the public, particularly in Ibadan. The obvious paralysis of the local government system under Makinde is also a source of concern for his critics. It is another dislike for many voters.

Realignments

Politicians in the state have begun moves to form coalitions against the incumbent since after the presidential election. The result of the presidential election was interpreted by opposition politicians as a damn verdict on Makinde’s performance, believing it was a rejection of the PDP in the state. Buoyed by the result, they have started building alliances that will boost their chances of defeating the governor.

Makinde won the 2019 election through a coalition of five parties against the then APC candidate Bayo Adelabu. For instance, while APC’s Folarin is wooing some major politicians from other opposition parties, some minor parties are already finalizing arrangements to adopt the Accord candidate Bayo Adelabu in the election. Most aggrieved PDP chieftains are also said to be embracing the APC to form a formidable alliance against the incumbent.

Yet, Makinde is also enjoying the support of some APC chieftains who are opposed to Folarin’s emergence as the new leader. Besides, the governor is reconciling with available aggrieved chieftains, candidates and community leaders. He is cementing many relationships to ensure that no crack is left for the opposition to explore.

Reacting to possible coalition of opposition parties against him, however, Makinde declared that he was not bothered, stressing that he was in coalition with the people of the state who are the beneficiaries of his good policies and projects.

The remaining five days of campaign may redefine how people will vote on Saturday. Typically, politicians reserve damaging revelations of wrongdoings and most crucial campaign messages to the week of the election in order to damage rivals or consolidate on their support base. New campaign messages have already started playing on radio and television since after the presidential election. They have also started throwing brickbats to damage one another in the struggle for acceptance and prominence among voters.

These new campaign messages may play a crucial role in persuading voters to support or reject governorship candidates. As Saturday draws nearer, what is clear is that Oyo State is set for, perhaps, its hottest governorship poll in recent history.

Accord/Adelabu

Thoughts are growing among observers and politicians that Tinubu may prevail on him to make the governorship poll a two horse race between PDP’s Makinde and APC’s Folarin. Should the Accord governorship candidate choose to stand down for another candidate in a coalition, the game will most likely change. This will mean that the race will be narrowed to only two candidates with voters forced to make a choice.

Adelabu’s support base will, in no small measure, give the candidate of such coalition a clear edge. Having polled over 350,000 votes in 2019 under the APC, the former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deputy governor has sustained his support base since then to keep his governorship ambition alive. But sources revealed that he was not thinking of opting out of the race simply because Accord candidates did not win any seat in the National Assembly elections just held in the state.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

ABIA STATE

On March 11, Abians will be joining indigenes and residents of 28 other states across the country to queue at various polling units to determine who becomes their governor and members of the state House of Assembly in the next four years. Sunny Nwankwo, takes a look at the major contenders in the governorship and House of Assembly elections in Abia State.

While discussions are still on over what played out in the state during the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, the attention of the eligible voters in Abia State are now on the drama and possible intrigues that may happen on March 11 during the governorship and House of Assembly elections in the state. Parties have resumed campaigns as provided for by the electoral act, but top on their agenda is how to ensure that their parties emerge victorious at the polls.

Abia State since 1999 is no doubt a PDP state as it has produced governors of the state since the return of democracy in the country, except the immediate past governor of the state, Senator Theodore Ahaemfule Orji who was elected the governor of the state in his first tenure on the platform of the Progressives People Alliance (PPA); a party that was formed and registered by Senator Orji Kalu after he fell out with former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

PDP

Before the February 25 elections, the leadership of the PDP in the state had boasted of its continued dominance of the state political space, but crisis that rocked the party after its primaries, including the death of its former gubernatorial candidate and the controversy trailing the choice of its deputy governorship candidate may cause the party to go into the all- important election with a disunited front.

More worrisome for the party is the outcome of the February 25 polls where most candidates of the party, including the governor; Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu, the Speaker of the Abia State House of Assembly, Engr. Enyinnaya Orji, and the Deputy Speaker of the State Assembly, Rt. Hon. Ifeanyi Uchendu and among others lost their elections to the opposition parties.

However, heads have started rolling in the PDP as the governor of the state has sacked of six Transitional Committee Chairmen and their deputies less than six days after the February 25 elections. Though no reason for their sack was given in a statement issued by the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Chris Ezem, it was however gathered that the action taken by the governor was not unconnected with the abysmal performance of their party in the affected local government areas where the PDP lost to opposition parties.

One of the questions on the lips of political watchers in the state is how the PDP can bounce back and regroup to keep hold on the governorship seat of the state in the face of seeming backlash and alleged anti-party activities by its members after the poor outing in the February 25 elections. Another question that the PDP will answer on March 11 is, how well that they have been able to market their new governorship candidate, Okey Ahiwe to the Abia electorate within the past few weeks?

Going by what brought about the sudden replacement of the TC Chairmen, can the PDP boast of a united party ahead of the governorship and State House of Assembly Elections?

APGA

While the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) were able to secure the Abia South Senatorial District seat as Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe defeated Governor Okezie Ikpeazu and Chinedu Onyeizu of the Labour Party to emerge winner of the poll, the party is looking forward to consolidate on the victory of Abaribe to win the governorship seat and other seats in the state assembly.

One of the challenges facing APGA in the state is fallout of a factional party primaries that is pending case at the Supreme Court; over the authentic governorship candidate of the party between Prof. Gregory Ibe and Sir Chikwe Udensi. There are indications that APGA might go into the March 11 elections without any governorship candidate, that’s, should the Supreme Court fail to deliver judgement on the matter before March 11.

One other issue that the APGA candidate or party needs to tackle is issue of equity and power rotation. Gregory Ibe is from Abia North where few believe should produce the next governor of Abia State according to the contentious charter of equity. But the Ngwa bloc in their interpretation of the same charter of equity has maintained that it is their turn to produce the next governor of the state.

LP

While the Labour Party in the state is still basking in the euphoria of the success that they recorded at the just concluded Presidential and National Assembly elections, it will be a herculean task for them to take over leadership of the state from the grip of the PDP as many have attributed their success to the Peter Obi bandwagon effect.

Others have opined that the decision some disappointed  Abia electorate not to vote in the coming election as their preferred Presidential Candidate didn’t win the election may affect the chances of the governorship candidate of the party, Dr. Alex Otti to win the much coveted seat. Another issue raised against Otti on several occasions is his identity; whether he is from Arochukwu local government area or Isiala Ngwa South.

According to political pundits, Otti and his team needs to do more work and persuade Abia electorate to come out and vote the way they voted on February 25. Another school of thought has it that the voting pattern in the governorship and House of Assembly elections will change as there won’t be the Obi factor in the choice of candidates.

APC

For the All Progressives Congress (APC), many believed that they have not done much in terms of campaign and having goodwill among the citizens of the state. Though its governorship candidate, High Chief Ikechi Emenike has been running for the governorship seat under various political parties since 1999, experts have said that the chances of the party to clinch the governorship seat are limited.

They equally doubt the possibility of the emergence of Emenike as the winner of the March 11 polls considering the votes for APC presidential and National Assembly candidates in the just concluded elections. Abia on March 11 will witness another intriguing moment that will determine the fate of the state and its people in the next four years.

It is expected that the PDP being the ruling party in the state would deploy every possible arsenal within their reach to retain the guber seat or risk being an opposition party for the first time in the state.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

CROSS RIVER STATE

The governorship election in Cross River State is populated by 17 candidates from different political parties but pundits believe the actual contenders are just the candidates of APC and the candidate of PDP. There is a known name among the other candidates, like Pastor Usani Uguru Usani, the former Minister for Niger Delta who decamped from the APC to the PRP. His chance is far from contention in the race and his party, the PRP is largely unknown to many in the state.

Besides the APC governorship candidate, Senator Prince Bassey Otu and  the PDP candidate, Senator Sandy Onor, the new sensation in the country’s polity, the Labour Party would have been a third force in the governorship race if they had a candidate in the race. In fact, the result of the February 11th Presidential election was a big upset achieved by Labour Party in Cross River State. The party did not just score the majority vote cast in Cross River State, it won ten out of the 18 LGAs in the state.

Therefore the governorship election can’t produce a similar result like the presidential polls in the State. It will be a two horse race between the APC and the PDP. The wave and sensation for Labour Party because of the support garnered by Peter Obi for his presidential ambition cannot repeat itself in the governorship race.

APC/Otu

The APC governorship candidate, Senator Prince Bassey Otu is rather the sensation in the race this time, he has remain popular and likeable politician who earned the nickname Sweet-Prince following his far reaching empowerment programs for his constituents when he was in the National Assembly.

Another factor that may also contribute to favor the APC governorship candidate is the strong agitation in the state to maintain the principles of rotation in the Governorship seat within the three senatorial districts of the State. For instance, from 1999 to 2007, the Southern part produced the governor. In 2007 to 2015, the Central Senatorial district produced the governor and currently, from 2015 to 2023, the incumbent governor is from the northern senatorial district.

The clamour is in favour of the Southern district to produce the next governor. The APC candidate is from the Southern district while the PDP candidate, Senator Sandy Onor is from the Central Senatorial district.

PDP/Onor

Onor is however a force in the race that should not be undermined nor under estimated. He is a serving senator and the PDP remains a Strong opposition party in Cross River State. His friend and party member, Senator Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe of the northern senatorial district, last week secured electoral victory over Governor Ben Ayade of the APC who desired to go back to the Senate.

So the probabilities are there that a synergy can be formed to repeat a PDP victory in the northern district to combine with a possible determination of Sandy Onor to get victory in the Central Senatorial district. However the result of last Saturday Presidential and National Assembly Elections shows that the PDP governorship candidate could not win his polling unit, political Ward and local government area for his political party.

The race is believed to be open to either the APC or the PDP but the APC is believed to have a clearer path to victory.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

RIVERS STATE

Undoubtedly, most observers will pay attention to the events that will define the forthcoming governorship election in Rivers State. Experience has shown that any governorship election in the oil-rich state is usually stormy, tough and complex.

Already, some believe that the outcome of the just-conlcuded Presidential election will affect the guber poll. The incumbent Governor, Nyesom Wike, and his state chapter of PDP worked for the victory of APC presidential candidate Tinubu, who trounced the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar.

It was the first time a PDP candidate lost Rivers, a traditional stronghold of the party, to another party. Wike’s directive to his party leaders changed the voting pattern in the state. While the supporters of the PDP voted for their party’s National Assembly candidates, they overwhelmingly elected the APC’s Tinubu.

Wike’s support for Tinubu is already breeding bad blood between him and Igbo people in the state. Such individuals at the cosmopolitan areas of the state especially in Obio-Akpor, Port Harcourt and Oyigbo, are said to be angry that the governor opted for Tinubu instead of their brother in the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi. Aggrieved by the development, some have vowed to boycott the governorship election while others said they would vote for either the candidate of the LP or the APC.

But Wike is not leaving anything to chance. He is not calling their bluffs. Rather the governor has started engaging them in various meetings. On Thursday, the governor met with the Igbo stakeholders in the state and explained the political dynamics that compelled him to support Tinubu instead of Obi.

By all indications, PDP is still stronger ahead of the poll. The party’s structure is still intact. All their ward and local government leaders are united behind their Governorship Candidate, Sir. Sim Fubara. The party, despite the crisis at the national level, has not shown any sign of cracks at the state level.

Wike’s character will surely define the looming poll. He is loved by the majority of the people in the state. This has robbed off on Fubara, who was until his emergence as the candidate, unknown in the political circle. The governor’s performance in office through his developmental projects that dot the length and breadth of the state has compelled many people to identify with his candidate.

Wike was all over the state campaigning for Fubara. He used the inauguration and commissioning of projects to campaign in each community. Most of the community projects are completed; others are still ongoing and the beneficiaries believe that to complete the projects Fubara should be elected on Saturday.

In fact, Fubara is contesting against 16 other candidates. Five of them are outstanding and adjudged as major contenders for the state’s top job. The candidates of the APC, Tonye Cole; Accord, Dumu Lulu-Briggs; Social Democratic Party (SDP), Magnus Abe; Action Alliance (AA), Dawari George and LP, Beatrice Itubo.

Without mincing words, the Rivers APC is going into the poll as a fragmented house. The APC’s divided house may prove detrimental to its fortunes at the poll. The four out of the five outstanding candidates were offshoot of the APC and former loyalists of the state’s leader, Rotimi Amaechi.

The way and manner Amaechi plotted the emergence of Cole compelled all of them to abandon the former governor to pursue their ambitions in other parties. Lulu-Briggs, who hails from Abonema in Akuku-Toru, moved out of the APC to Accord with his followers.

Senator Magnus Abe, a consummate politician, who hails from Ogoni, was the first to inflict serious injuries that spread like cancer on the party before he finally dumped the party for the SDP. He took away many APC members and leaders. Dawari George, a former foot soldier of Amaechi did not see any reason to remain in the party after Cole’s emergence.

Apart from the depletion of the support base of the APC, the party has been speaking in discordant tunes ahead of the poll following irreconcilable differences among its members. A faction of the party led by Tony Okocha, a former Chief of Staff to Amaechi, has been at daggers drawn with the state’s Working Committee of the party led by Emeka Beke.

Their fault lines were emphasised during the preparation for the Rivers’ campaign for Tinubu. There were indications that while Tony Okocha’s faction mobilised and voted for Tinubu, the party members loyal to Amaechi voted either for Atiku or Obi. While Okocha, who led the Independent Campaign Council (ICC) for Tinubu celebrated the APC’s triumph at the presidential poll, there was deafening silence at the state’s secretariat of the party.

Okocha has directed his faction to reciprocate Wike’s gesture by mobilising others to vote massively for Fubara on Saturday. He said: “We will reciprocate the governor’s gesture by supporting who the governor wants us to support. Saying that Wike was key to the victory of Tinubu in Rivers State is an understatement. The governor was instrumental to our victory 1million times.

“He told Rivers people to vote someone that will support the state. He mobilised human beings and resources to ensure this victory.” But the state Publicity Secretary of APC, Mr. Darlington Nwauju, immediately countered Okocha saying he had no capacity to speak for the party.

He said: “Tony Okocha has been a transactional politician. He has no legal and moral rights to speak for the APC in the state. He has no business talking about, who the APC will support. On March 11, people across party leanings will vote for the APC Governorship Candidate, Tonye Cole”.

Beyond the defence of the party, the fragmentation of the state APC ahead of the election may affect its fortunes. Just like the PDP at the national level, Lulu-Briggs, Dawari George, and Abe may share the votes that should ordinarily be given to Cole and the APC.

For Beatrice Itubor of the LP, her case may just be like that of Peter Obi if the Igbo people, angry against Wike for supporting Tinubu decide to protest with their votes. She may not have the spread and the number required to pose any threat to Wike’s candidate.

VERDICT: PDP

BORNO STATE

From the First Republic to the Fourth Republic, Borno State has always been a progressive enclave. Its politics is as predictable as its valiant heroes of the old Kanem-Bornu Empire. It is rather of radical shape or of idealistic conservative slant. The outcome of presidential election in Borno has been consistent and reflective of the political leaning of the people of the state in the last 23 years.

In 2015, out of 515,008 registered voters, APC garnered 473, 543 compared to PDP’s 25,640. It was also a gallant outing for APC in 2019 when its candidate Buhari polled 836,496 votes to beat Atiku who scored 71,788 votes. The performance of PDP had been abysmal in the state.

In the February 25 polls, Tinubu polled 252, 282 to defeat Atiku who returned 190,921 votes.

With the Boko Haram “war” almost won by Buhari, the emergence of APC Vice Presidential candidate, Sen. Kashim Shettima from the state and the outstanding performance of Governor Babagana Zulum, a landslide is expected in February. The breeze of victory is already ravaging Borno mountains, hills and desert.

In spite of some grumblings about the style of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, many people believe that APC is still the party to beat in the state. The governor has reversed his high stake style to relate better with politicians after being challenged at various times by political stars in the state.

The appointment of the 27 caretaker chairmen recently inaugurated in the state was seen by observers as a wise move by the governor to persuade some of the state’s disgruntled politicians to join forces with him. The list of appointees included the faces of seasoned politicians from the state, which many people are familiar with.

Zulum has consistently said he has rebuilt more churches in the Southern part of the state that were destroyed by  Boko Haram insurgents  more than ever in the history of the state. This could be a strategy to also counter the perceived marginalization of the Christian population. He has also consistently spent his Christmas with the people since he was elected as governor in 2019.

His over 500 projects which he rolled out in the state in the last four years are also selling points for APC in the state and he has never shied away from drumming these into his people’s ears.

The PDP’s fortunes in Borno have plummeted since 2011, but you can only underestimate the party’s performance in the 2023 election at your peril.

A factor that has raised the PDP’s hope in Borno State is the emergence of the young Jajari as the party’s gubernatorial candidate. His arrival has sparked some glimmer of renewed energy, particularly among the youths in the state’s Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere Local Government Area.

PDP supporters over time in the state have faced serial betrayals from party elders, who usually end up compromising with the ruling party. The arrival of Jajari from outside the circle has provided the party with new life.

Another factor contributing to the current PDP’s strength in Borno State is the widespread dissatisfaction caused by the state’s primary elections, in which the ruling party is alleged to have imposed candidates on the people.

Borno North is another critical factor that will benefit the ruling APC in the presidential election. This is because, with the exception of Kaga Local Government, which is located along the Damaturu/Maiduguri road, the majority of the votes will be cast from IDP camps.

However, the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections shows that the ruling APC is headed for a comfortable victory here.

VERDICT: APC

SOKOTO STATE

The governorship contest in Sokoto will be between the candidates of APC and PDP.

With a population of over four million people, going by past elections results, Sokoto State voting strength is approximately less than a million. Last weekend, less than 600,000 votes were cast in the presidential and National Assembly polls.

APC received 285,444 of that number while with 288,679 PDP had an advantage of slightly over 3,000 votes.

The governorship contest is also expected to be tight. It is believed that this time around the voting pattern will be down to awareness, sentiments, negative impact of insecurity and poverty, loss of confidence in attitude of politicians, alleged poor representation and non-fulfillment of campaign promises

Besides, there are indications that most Igbo residents, whose traditional choice has been PDP have pitched tent with LP’s Obi against other candidates. This scenario may lead to a significant departure from voting pattern in the state.

The arrowheads for the parties in the caliphate are reaching out to the grassroots to outwit one another. Those for PDP are Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and Yusuf Suleiman among the local politicians whose voices are reckoned with in the state’s politics. For Tambuwal, his strengths are the influence and power of incumbency; his records in the National Assembly; his political experience and alleged fraternity with the Sultanate on one hand; and alliance with ex-Governor Bafarawa, who also has significantly carved a political niche for himself after eight years as the governor of the state.

On the other side, the APC has former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, who is believed to be a political enigma endeared to people in the caliphate for his accessibility and listening ears. He has an unmatched political record in the state for over a decade. Wamakko has over time remained a political idol for his generosity. He has been consistent in winning elections. He is supported by the Minister of Police Affairs, Muhammadu Maigari Dingyadi and its gubernatorial candidate and former deputy governor of the state, Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto and Chuso Abdullahi Datijjo.

The NNPP and LP platforms seem not to have representation in the caliphate. Their arrowheads Senator Umaru Dahiru Tambuwal and Comrade Umar Aminu (gubernatorial candidates of the two parties respectively) are weak with less formidable structures.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

ZAMFARA STATE

Despite the backing of a former National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau for Atiku, there are strong indications that APC may retain its grip on Zamfara State as it did in the presidential poll.

Last weekend, the party garnered 298,396 votes as against PDP’s 193,978. APC is also in a good state because its intra-party crises have been resolved.

All the major players in the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which ruled the state for many years, have reunited and are in APC.

The heavyweights in Zamfara include ex-governors Abdulaziz Yari, who was initially at odds with the incumbent governor, Bello Matawalle, Ahmad Sani Yerima and Mahmud Shinkafi. Others are Sen.  Kabiru Marafa, a former Defence Minister, Mansur Dan-Ali, ex-Minister Bashir Yuguda, and Hassan Sahabi,

The chances of APC have been buoyed by the performance of Matawalle, who in spite of security challenges has made a mark. The governor is a chief marketer of the party. In the health sector, he has performed creditably.

Apart from providing 145 primary healthcare centers, the governor has engaged over 500 health workers and about 150 medical doctors. He also completed Shinkafi Referral Hospital which had been in the works since 2009.

The pillar of the PDP in the state is Gusau. He is campaigning seriously for Atiku. The opposition party is, however, just getting its act together after a reprieve for its governorship candidate, Dauda Lawal from the Court of Appeal in Sokoto. The court last week affirmed him the rightful governorship candidate of the party.

Despite Gusau’s effort, PDP’s structure is weak in the state. It is contending with intra-party stress, lack of cohesion in the State Executive Committee (SEC), suspension of some key officers, defection of its Women Leader to APC; local government chapters’ chairmen working at cross-purpose with the State Executive Committee.

The opposition is coming late into the race in Zamfara State.

A major problem in the state is insecurity. Many residents of the state have been abducted by insurgents. The abductees are in captivity. But it remains to be seen whether this factor can alter the trend the emerged last weekend.

VERDICT: APC

AKWA IBOM STATE

The presidential election in results Akwa Ibom State confirm that next weekend’s gubernatorial and House of Assembly polls would be fiercely contested between the APC, PDP and LP candidates.

The ruling PDP came tops with 214,012 votes, followed by APC with 160,620 votes and LP receiving a respectable 132,683 ballots.

However, not all the three guber candidates have equal prospects of winning the oil-state because of certain factors working for or against them or the advantages each of them has over the rest.

It is expected that the dynamics of the presidential polls may not have a bearing in seven days.

For instance, Atiku rode on the advantage that Akwa Ibom is a PDP state. It was expected that he would get more votes than Obi and Tinubu.

Governor Udom Emmanuel, who is chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, was relentless in mobilising support for Atiku. He has also directed all candidates of the party to include Atiku in their individual campaigns.

In their closets many members of PDP expressed their readiness to jettison party loyalty and vote a candidate from the South. That perhaps explains the failure of the ruling party to secure a lopsided result in the state.

A top member of the PDP said: “We will vote candidates of our party from the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, Senate and Governor. But members of the party are not duty bound to vote Atiku as president.

“We are not against his emergence as the party’s presidential flagbearer neither do we question how he emerged but we believe in the unity of Nigeria and the fact that power should rotate between the North and South”.

PDP in the state enjoys the benefits of incumbency and has a lot of bigwigs in its ranks. APC is at the centre and the victory of Tinubu might be a morale booster for its supporters.

Some of those big names include the likes of former governor Godswill Akpabio, former Petroleum Minister, Chief Don Etiebet, Niger Delta Affairs Minister, Obong Umana Umana, and former deputy governor, Mr. Nsima Ekere. These are considered the ‘Generals’ of Akwa Ibom politics capable of swinging victory for their party.

However, the party has been wearied by many years of internal crisis to be able to make appreciable impact.

For instance the former presidential aide, Senator Ita Enang has been expelled from the party following his insistence on challenging the emergence of Obong Akanimo Udofia as the party’s governorship candidate.

He is currently struggling in the courts to be reinstated. It is expected that he is not going to mobilize his supporters to vote for the APC candidates. There are feelers that he might even dump the party if he fails to get justice in the courts.

But on the whole, it is expected that PDP is strong enough to see off the efforts of the opposition.

VERDICT: PDP

ABIA STATE

Abia since 1999 till date has been one of the states that has religiously voted for PDP and that explains the huge presence of the party across the 17 local government areas in the state.

It is a known fact that, most politicians in the state as at today, including those who are in the opposition, at one point or the other in their political career were once members of PDP.

Voting patterns in previous elections show that Abia has been for the PDP, especially in presidential and National Assembly elections. This accounts to the reason most federal legislators from the state are PDP members.

It is important to say that the emergence of APC at the 2015 and 2019 general elections with the presence of political heavyweights like Orji Uzor Kalu, Sen. Nkechi Nwaogu and among others, boosted the presence of the party which accounts for the depletion of the usual PDP votes.

Another factor that affected the chances of PDP is the feud between chairman Iyorchia Ayu and the G5 governors led by the Rivers State Governor Wike.

Abia is, however, not immune to the wave and noise the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Obi, is making in the Southeast. Last weekend, the result was devastating for the ruling party to the extent that Governor Okezie Ikpeazu lost his senatorial bid to Enyinnaya Abaribe of APGA.

Many analysts, however, don’t expect the pattern noticed last weekend to be repeated next Saturday as the ruling PDP would be fighting for its life and continued relevance in the state. It would not go down easily.

There are three senatorial zones in the state: Abia North, Abia Central and Abia South respectively.

A careful study of the three zones shows that APC may likely get more votes in Abia North considering the impact the APC federal lawmakers; Orji Uzor Kalu (Senate Chief Whip); Bende, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha (House of Reps Deputy Chief Whip); Umunneochi, Benjamin Okezie (House of Reps Spokesman); Bende, including former Minister of Mines; Uche Ogah and among others have made in the lives of the Abia North Senatorial District.

In Abia South, PDP is likely going to give a good account of themselves considering that it is the senatorial zone of the governor.

In Abia Central, where the immediate past governor of the state, Orji, has under his control, may likely vote for PDP.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

 With the presidential election less than two weeks from now, our team of correspondents and analysts take a look at the state of the race. Since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) flagged of the campaigns in late September 2022, it has been dominated by ethnicity, religious sentiments, personal attacks and fake news on social media.

Many observers have described this as one of the dirtiest campaigns ever with not too much focus of the critical issues facing the populace – like the economy and insecurity.

Before the parties took a break for end of year festivities, the fundamentals of the race seemed to be locked in, with many people appearing to have made up their minds who they will vote for early. Indeed, some estimates say that percentage of the electorate who are undecided could be as low as five percent.

In the last few weeks, however, an x-factor was thrown into the mix with the seeming intractable fuel scarcity and the bungled naira swap which has plunged millions of people across the country into unprecedented hardship.

Suffice it to say that every season the air if thick with intrigue with schemers trying every trick in the book to either thwart the process, or prevent certain candidates from emerging winners. Back in 1993, the process was thrown into confusion by a dodgy judicial intervention at the last minute which the military authorities latched on to truncate the process. There has been plenty of evidence of the last few months how certain individuals and parties have clogged the courts with frivolous cases – many of which have been tossed out as lacking merit.

As Election Day draws ever closer, it remains to be seen whether those who have made up their minds about candidates to back, would made a U-turn on account of the aforementioned factors.

In this report, our team of editors and correspondents make projections on the likely outcome of the presidential election based on their reporting across the states of the federation.

This report was compiled by Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu; Managing Editor (Northern Operations), Yusuf Alli; Regional Manager (South-Souith), Shola O’neil; Nwanosike Onu (Awka); Mike Odiegwu (Port Harcourt); Kolade Adeyemi (Jos); Fanen Ihyongo (Kano); David Adenuga (Bauchi); Uja Emmanuel (Makurdi); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Sola Shittu (Gombe); Justina Asishana (Minna); Joel Duku (Maiduguri); Linus Oota (Lafia); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Onimisi Alao (Yola), Sanni Onogu ( FCT) and Adekunle Jimoh (Ilorin).

Others are: Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Toba Adedeji (Osogbo), Rasaq Ibrahim (Ado-Ekiti), Bisi Oladele (Ibadan), Osagie Otabor (Akure), Aiwerie Okungbowa (Asaba), Gil Nsa (Calabar) Ogo Anioke (Abakaliki), Damian Duruihuoma (Enugu), Chris Njoku (Owerri) and Sunny Nwankwo (Aba).

PLATEAU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS:

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 549,615; APC: 429,140

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 548,665; APC: 468,555

One key issue that has always been at play in presidential elections is religion. Other factors in the other elections are minority politics, inclination to progressive politics and indigene-settler issues. In the state, All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flagbearer, Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, stand shoulder to shoulder. Former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is trailing behind the three candidates, judging by the calibre of notable politicians in the state backing the candidates.

Thus, the 2023 presidential election might be intriguing in the state. The popularity of these candidates and their parties make predictions of electoral victory difficult for analysts.

With the exception of Kwankwaso, the standard bearers of APC, PDP and LP launched their campaigns in the state between October and December 2022. For now, the NNPP and its flag bearer are relatively unknown in the state.

All notable politicians in the state have already pitched their tents with Tinubu, Atiku and Obi. For instance, the entire APC structures in the state are for Tinubu with Governor Simon Lalong as Director-General of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC).

This implies that all Lalong’s cabinet members, the state legislature, 17 LGA chairmen, councilors, ward party chairmen, two senators and six House of Representatives members are all working for the success of  theTinubu/Shettima ticket.

That the entire state APC political structures are presumably for Tinubu does not deprive other candidates of support in the state. Atiku, for instance, has formidable forces working for him. Those with him include elder statesman Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Suleiman Yahaya Kwande, a former Minister of State for Information and Culture, Alhaji Salisu Ibrahim Nakande, some former members of the House of Representatives  like Hon. Timothy Golu, Hon. Johnbull Shekerau, the current House of Representatives member from Mangu/Bokkos Federal Constituency, Hon. Solomon Maren and the incumbent Senator representing Plateau North, Senator Istifanus Gyang.

Also working for the former Vice President is Senator Jeremiah Husseni and his team of supporters. Another strong pillar in his campaign is a philanthropist Chief Kefas Wungak, who is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Kefiano Autous and Kefiano Global Foundation. From the way things are, it is safe to say that the Plateau PDP structure is for Atiku.

Comparatively, the standard-bearer of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi may not have robust structures like APC and PDP, but his support base in the state looks impressive. The governorship candidate of LP in Plateau State, Dr. Patrick Dakum and his running mate Edward Pwajok (SAN) are both grassroots politicians who have all it takes to woo youths to vote for LP. Besides Dakum, it was learnt that the major force behind Obi and Labour Party is former Governor Joshua Dariye.

There is also Jonah Jang, a former governor of the state who is in the Nyesom Wike camp that is opposed to Atiku.

Apart from Dariye’s impact, the minority factor will boost Obi’s chances in the state.

If previous voting pattern of the state in general elections is anything to go by, PDP has never lost any presidential election since 1999. Even in 2015 when APC won the governorship election, it lost the presidential poll to PDP. The same thing happened in 2019. But how it works out in 2023 is a different matter.

In summary, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are in a serious battle for the soul of Plateau. The party that will garner the highest votes cannot be predicted. The three leading parties have almost equal chances of winning.

Tinubu may do well if APC concentrates on Jos North, part of Jos South, Wase, Kanam, part of Shendam, home town of Lalong who is also the senatorial candidate of the APC in the said elections.

What should also be borne in mind is that Obi and Atiku would compete for the same traditional support base, whereas the APC strongholds remain relatively intact. In 2015, many Christians were believed to have voted against Buhari. They backed then President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian. In 2019, they shifted support to Atiku. Now, there is Obi, who is subtly waving the religious card. Will those who voted for Jonathan give Obi their votes?

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

BAUCHI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,801,512

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 86,085; APC: 931,598

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 209,313; APC: 798,428

Both PDP and APC are popular in Bauchi but that cannot be said of the LP and NNPP. The first two parties control large parts of the state.

But APC has always enjoyed the goodwill of the people at presidential level. This was quite evident in 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then-PDP candidate, former Goodluck Jonathan by over one million votes.

Similarly, in the 2019 elections, Buhari defeated Atiku of PDP by a wide margin despite the ex-VP’s popularity in the Northeast. The PDP, however, went on to win the governorship election due to protest votes by some APC members against their candidate.

If the results of previous polls are anything to go by, APC stands a better chance. In 2015 Buhari defeated Jonathan by over a million vote margin in the state.

Similarly, in 2019, he polled 798,428 votes to beat Atiku who got 209,313 votes. Buhari won in 19 out of 20 local government areas of the state.

Atiku won in Bogoro, the local government area where former House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara, comes from, getting 23,664 votes while Buhari got 5,284 votes.

The bigwigs expected to deliver Bauchi for APC are the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, who is leader of the party in the state. He hails from Katagum Local Government Area and his influence is unmatched.

Another key player is Sadique Abubakar, the party’s gubernatorial candidate and Presidential Campaign Council coordinator for the state who hails from Katagum.

Others mobilizing support for APC are a former governor of the state, Mallam Isa Yuguda, a former state chairman of the party, Uba Nana and a former National Commissioner at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Yerima Giade. The rest are the APC state party chairman, Alhaji Babayo Misau, a  former presidential aide Ya’u Darazo, a former Speaker of the Bauchi House of Assembly,  Ayah Mi’a, Dr. Musa Babayo, and the current Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Customs Service. Col. Hameed Ibrahim Ali,

The disunity in the state chapter of PDP may affect Atiku’s chances at the presidential poll.

Analysts believe even in Bauchi South Senatorial District, which covers the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro, the party will face stiff opposition.

It’s believed that the incumbency factor, with PDP, the ruling party in the state enjoys, won’t play a major role this time around because Governor Mohammed who hails from Alkaleri LGA, may not throw his weight behind Atiku in the zone. He had lamented that certain forces within the PDP, including Atiku, were bent on frustrating his second-term ambition.

Atiku may have to rely on the influence of Dogara ; a former PDP national chairman, Alhaji Ahmadu Mu’azu, Kirfi, and Sen. Ahmed Abdul Ningi, to pull votes for him.

He will take advantage of Dogara’s stance on the APC’s same-faith presidential ticket. Unfortunately, the ex-Speaker only controls Bogoro local government, out of the seven local governments, including Tafawa Balewa, Dass in the district.

But even in his predominantly Christian community, there are grassroots supporters of Tinubu’s ticket.

The Bauchi Central Senatorial District covers the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji. APC appears to be currently divided in the district following the defection of the senator representing the zone, Jika Dauda Halliru, who is now contesting for the governorship race under NNPP. It’s believed that PDP has an edge over APC in the district.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

BENUE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,782,302

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 303,737; APC: 373,961

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 355,355; APC: 347,668

Benue State is likely to be a battleground for votes in the North-Central. It’s fight-to-the finish in the sense that the political actors, who have been on the scene for years are the same, but this time around in different political platforms. It is expected that they would do everything to outwit one another.

The PDP, which is the ruling party in the state, has nine House of Representatives members out of 11, three senators, 26 House of Assembly members out of 30, 23 Local Government Area chairmen – including elected councillors in the 276 wards in the state.

It also boasts of notable politicians who command large following at the state and council levels. Some of these heavyweights are Sen. Gabriel Suswam, who was the immediate governor, Sen. Patrick Abba Moro (a former Minister of Interior) and Sen. Oker Jev, who is from Benue North West Senatorial zone.

On paper, one can easily conclude that PDP will win the 2023 general election at all levels in the state.

However, the party is in a serious crisis. Things have fallen apart. The biggest threat to its existence before and after the 2023 general elections is the protracted crisis between the G-5 governors and the party’s national chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu. Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, is an active member of the rebellious group. Ortom was absent when the Atiku campaign train came to town.

However, the ex-VP and Ayu are not leaving anything to chance as they have also mobilized their own supporters for the elections.

The combination of Suswam, Moro and Jev is behind Atiku, but since the leader of PDP in the state is the governor, who obviously has the yams and knives, it is difficult to predict the outcome because the party is an opposition unto itself.

Suswam, has declared his support for Atiku openly, and his supporters are campaigning for the Turaki Adamawa. But he insists this has not affected his relationship with Ortom. Many don’t believe him; they argue he’s just buying time as the two would soon fall apart.

This is despite the continued assurance by Ortom that PDP will win all elections from bottom to top. Unless there is reconciliation, Atiku may not do as much as he did in 2019.

So far, Ortom has shown a soft spot for Obi. Atiku would have a huge chunk of what should ordinarily be his sliced off, with the LP candidate as beneficiary.

In spite of the spirited campaign against Buhari in 2019 due to rampant killing of farmers in the state by herdsmen, the APC and PDP ran neck – and – neck. With Ortom and his supporters determined to work against Atiku, APC’s Tinubu may have the upper hand, come February 25.

The party looks good to give the ruling PDP a run for its money in the state. Fr. Hycinth Alia, who is the governorship candidate, is the rave of the moment and is enjoying massive followership .With the enthusiastic backing for him in urban and rural areas, pundits have concluded that PDP is gone and APC is coming in the state.

Many claim Alia will win big because the PDP administration is owing teachers, pensioners and civil servants etc. Since Ortom is serving out his two terms, they argue the electorate should be allowed to choose a candidate and party to liberate the state from the harsh economic situation.

In this light, they view Tinubu and APC as best for the state. For Benue, the last ballot will decide.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KADUNA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 4,345,469

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 484,085; APC: 1,127,760

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 649,612; APC: 993,445

In Kaduna State, the February 25 presidential election will be a great departure from the previous polls. The 2011 race was between the then incumbent President Jonathan of PDP, Buhari of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Nuhu Ribadu of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In 2015, it was again between Jonathan and Buhari, while in 2019, it was a contest between Buhari and Atiku.

In the three previous elections, Buhari won in the state. He defeated Jonathan in 2011 with a total votes of 1,334,244, as against the incumbent President’s 1,190,179. But Buhari lost the election at the national level. In the return match in 2015, Buhari now under the platform of the APC won Kaduna with 1, 127,760 to defeat Jonathan who polled 484,085 votes.

As the incumbent in 2019, Buhari defeated Atiku after scoring 993,445 votes against his 649,612 votes. He took 15 of the state’s 23 local government areas, leaving his opponent with the remaining eight.

The factors that will make the big difference between the previous elections and the coming poll are the emergence and resurgence of the Kwankwaso-led NNPP, the Obi-led LP, and the exit of Buhari from the political scene.

This is a factor that may change the voting pattern in the forthcoming presidential poll. Though, he hails from Katsina, he has lived most of his life in Kaduna. He is not only loved, he is ‘worshipped’ by the people of the state. This explains the massive support he has enjoyed during the previous elections.

Meanwhile, Atiku who gave Buhari a good fight by securing 649,612 votes against his 993,445 in 2019, is still in the contest. He would be slugging it out with Tinubu, who is contesting the presidential race for the first time and actively backed by Buhari loyalists, among them the state governor, Mallam Nasir El- Rufai, who is immensely popular in Kaduna, the state capital and the Northern part of the state.

The youngest and smallest of the ‘big four’ parties in Kaduna State is Kwankwaso’s NNPP. The new party lacks strong structure. Its presence revolves around its leader and presidential candidate. The party in the state also appears to be all about its governorship candidate, Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi.

Although LP is gaining popularity in Southern Kaduna and part of the capital, it is not immune to structural crisis. It is factionalized. One wing is chaired by Peter Hassan but the party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Jonathan Asake aligns with Auwal Tafoki’s faction.

Both NNPP and Labour Party may be showing promise elsewhere, but the reality is that they both lack the capacity to win in Kaduna. Their existence is, however, capable of causing serious issues for the mega parties in the zones of the state where the big ones hitherto called the shots.

In Kaduna North and Kaduna Central Senatorial zones, NNPP will get some votes to deplete the figures of the ruling APC and the major opposition PDP. Kaduna South Senatorial Zone on the other hand, is the area of the state where LP has been able to make significant inroads. It is most likely going to get its major votes from this zone, which had since 1999 become the traditional stronghold of the PDP.

The PDP presidential candidate is going to enjoy the support of people like former Vice President Namadi Sambo, former governors Ahmed Markafi and Ramalan Yero.

There is no doubt that Atiku is popular in Kaduna. In 2019 he polled 649,612 votes against Buhari’s 993,445 votes. PDP will, however, record split votes in Southern Kaduna because of Labour Party.

The major weakness of Atiku in Kaduna Central is the crisis rocking the party over the senatorial primary. As at now, the question of who is the Kaduna Central PDP candidate is yet to be answered because of the  legal battle between the two prominent contenders for the ticket.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party has gained some momentum in Southern Kaduna and parts of the metropolis. He will record a good number of votes from this area to come distant third in the presidential poll.

The presidential candidate of NNPP has made considerable inroads in key Northwest states, especially in Kano where he hails from and the neighbouring Jigawa State. In Kaduna, he will have pockets of votes in Kaduna North and Kaduna Central but he won’t make any significant impact considering the fact that his governorship candidate who is the face of the party is not on ground.

Looking at the state of the political parties, the presidential candidates themselves, those rooting for them and the permutations on ground, a tight presidential race lies ahead between APC and PDP, with the ruling party’s Tinubu having an edge.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

GOMBE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,394,393

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 96,873; APC: 361,245

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 138,484; APC: 403,961

In 2019, APC’s Buhari won the election in Gombe State after polling 403,961 votes out of 580,649 total votes cast in the state.

Until then, Gombe was a PDP stronghold under former Governor Hassan Dankwambo who had completed two terms in office. He succeeded his godfather, Senator Danjuma Goje, who also spent two terms as governor before leaving office in 2011.

However, the game changer for the 2019 election in Gombe was no one else but Goje, the senator representing Gombe Central at the National Assembly who decamped to APC and single-handedly toured the 114 wards with the APC candidate, now the governor of the state, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya.

The 2019 election was a terrible defeat for PDP as Dankwambo could not even win his senatorial bid for Gombe North as an incumbent.

However, the question today is can the APC repeat the landslide victory it won in 2019 at the 2023 presidential election?

Unlike four years ago, the political landscape in the state today is a completely different ball game with three strong parties – APC, PDP and NNPP – and the less visible Labour Party, hustling for the over 1.5 million votes in the state.

In the ruling APC, Governor Yahaya is consolidating his hold on the state as the leader of the party. Lately, the party had battled with internal strife between him and his former boss and godfather Goje, but it was amicably resolved with the latter receiving his Gombe Central senatorial ticket for the fourth term in the Senate.

However, unlike 2019, Goje has not been actively involved in party activities in the state giving a semblance that all may still not be well between the governor and his estranged godfather.

Nevertheless, APC has remained strong as a party to beat in the state, cashing in on the crisis rocking the main opposition party PDP in the state.

The chief anchor for the APC presidential campaign in the state is Malam Abubakar Inuwa Kari who also doubles as Chief of Staff to Governor Yahaya. He is a known grassroots politician and a strong ally of Tinubu. He is the Director of Contact Mobilization for Tinubu/Shettima in the Northeast with Yahaya as the APC Presidential Campaign (PCC) Coordinator for the zone.

The PDP was, prior to the gubernatorial primary, a major threat to the ruling APC in the state. But after the primary election, things fell apart in the party with a leading gubernatorial aspirant, Jamilu Gwamna jettisoning the party to become the campaign coordinator for APC. Jamilu’s exit was a big blow to the party having just donated his campaign office to the PDP presidential candidate Atiku.

The PDP candidate, Jibrin Barde and the party leader in the state, former Governor Dankwambo are the anchor men for the PDP but neither of them is taken serious as far as the 2023 presidential election is concerned in Gombe. Both Dankwambo and Barde had been supporters of the PDP G-5 Governor’s before making a U-turn recently to throw their weight behind Atiku when he came for the presidential campaign in Gombe.

Indeed, the PDP in Gombe today is not enjoying the best of support. It does not demonstrate the strength and determination to win any election in the state. Though it was earlier in 2022 touted to be a possible replacement for the ruling APC, but that hope has been dashed by irreconcilable differences within the party.

NNPP is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the PDP crisis in Gombe. Towards the end of last year till the moment, it has suddenly become the new bride and a possible alternative to APC.

Led by Hon. Khamis Ahmed Mailantarki, it has been waxing stronger with defections to the party from both the APC and PDP. Mailantarki was a former and only CPC member of the House of Representatives representing Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye between 2011 and 2015. He made history in 2011 when he emerged as the only legislator from the North-East with the highest number of votes and was the deputy chairman of the House Committee on FCT.

Today in Gombe, Mailantarki is said to be secretly enjoying the support of the Presidency through his closeness to Buhari as the only CPC member of the Federal House of Representatives then.

There may not be a landslide victory for any of the four most visible political parties in Gombe in 2023 presidential election unlike what happened in 2019. Atiku will still enjoy the sympathy of some of the electorate as a Northeast leader, while Tinubu will benefit from the power of incumbency of APC and its structures statewide.

NNPP will shake the table, but the biggest surprise might come from LP which although has no gubernatorial candidate, nor visible anchorman, yet enjoys a good followership among Christians in the state. It is believed that if religion plays a role in the 2023 presidential election, then the party might put in a respectable performance in Gombe.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

BORNO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,514,228

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 25,640; APC: 473,543

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 71,788; APC: 836,496

From the First Republic to the Fourth Republic, Borno State has always been a progressive enclave. Its politics is as predictable as its valiant heroes of the old Kanem-Bornu Empire. It is rather of radical shape or of idealistic conservative slant. The outcome of presidential election in Borno has been consistent and reflective of the political leaning of the people of the state in the last 23 years.

In 2015, out of 515,008 registered voters, APC garnered 473, 543 compared to PDP’s 25,640. It was also a gallant outing for APC in 2019 when its candidate Buhari polled 836,496 votes to beat Atiku who scored 71,788 votes. The performance of PDP had been abysmal in the state.

With the Boko Haram “war” almost won by Buhari, the emergence of APC Vice Presidential candidate, Sen. Kashim Shettima from the state and the outstanding performance of Governor Babagana Zulum, a landslide is expected in February. The breeze of victory is already ravaging Borno mountains, hills and desert.

The last time the state was close to the presidency was on June 12, 1993 when, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe was the Vice Presidential candidate to the late business mogul, Chief M.K.O. Abiola.

In spite of some grumblings about the style of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, many people believe that APC is still the party to beat in the state. The governor has reversed his high stake style to relate better with politicians after being challenged at various times by political stars in the state.

The appointment of the 27 caretaker chairmen recently inaugurated in the state was seen by observers as a wise move by the governor to persuade some of the state’s disgruntled politicians to join forces with him. The list of appointees included the faces of seasoned politicians from the state, which many people are familiar with.

Zulum has consistently said he has rebuilt more churches in the Southern part of the state that were destroyed by  Boko Haram insurgents  more than ever in the history of the state. This could be a strategy to also counter the perceived marginalization of the Christian population. He has also consistently spent his Christmas with the people since he was elected as governor in 2019.

His over 500 projects which he rolled out in the state in the last four years are also selling points for APC in the state and he has never shied away from drumming these into his people’s ears.

While the APC is banking on the power of incumbency, the NNPP is hoping to overthrow the APC through the philanthropy of its candidate Kwankwaso.

According to Sabiu Commander NASCO, the people of Borno State, particularly women, are waiting to repay Kwankwaso for the largest philanthropic intervention in the state’s history during the Boko Haram crisis.

According to him, the former Kano governor took over 500 children out of Maiduguri during the height of the Boko Haram crisis and provided them with scholarships from primary school to university level.

The PDP’s fortunes in Borno have plummeted since 2011, but you can only underestimate the party’s performance in the 2023 election at your peril, especially since Atiku is the party’s presidential candidate.

A factor that has raised the PDP’s hope in Borno State is the emergence of the young Jajari as the party’s gubernatorial candidate. His arrival has sparked some glimmer of renewed energy, particularly among the youths in the state’s Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere Local Government Area.

PDP supporters over time in the state have faced serial betrayals from party elders, who usually end up compromising with the ruling party. The arrival of Jajari from outside the circle has provided the party with new life.

Another factor contributing to the current PDP’s strength in Borno State is the widespread dissatisfaction caused by the state’s primary elections, in which the ruling party is alleged to have imposed candidates on the people.

Borno North is another critical factor that will benefit the ruling APC in the presidential election. This is because, with the exception of Kaga Local Government, which is located along the Damaturu/Maiduguri road, the majority of the votes will be cast from IDP camps.

This suggests that the areas with insecurity will be difficult for the opposition parties to penetrate, especially the IDPs camps.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

NIGER STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,698,344

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 149,222; APC: 657,678

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 218,052; APC: 612,371

In Niger State, there are no longer old strong local politicians in APC because the government of youths in the last eight years has further demystified the power blocs in the state. The emerging leaders in APC tend to favor and support the aspiration of Tinubu.

The former political warlords in the state have been relegated to the background thereby forcing them to queue behind the new leaders like Senator Sani Musa, APC National Vice Chairman (North Central), Mu’azu Bawa Rijau and Hon. Jonathan Vatsa whose voice and moves contributed to the success of the APC in the 2015 general elections. Despite his loss in the primaries, Senator Abdullahi Sabi, is strongly behind the party and has been mobilizing people from his zone.

In the PDP, the party seems to be in one camp now with the coming together of former governor, Dr. Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu group’s and chairman, Tanko Beji’s group. For now, there seems to be unity in the camp. This development may give strength the PDP presidential candidate in the state as the former governor has always been a strong ally of Atiku.

There is also Hon. Ibrahim Ebbo, the former DG of Special Duties to the Governor who defected to the PDP from the APC and Umar Nasko who has defected back to the PDP from APC. They are all rooting for  PDP.

Other non-state actors are ‘Uphill  Generals’ in the state. For now, nobody can categorically state where they belong. As much as their political influence seems to be nose-diving, candidates in all parties may have themselves to blame if they think they cannot influence decisions and voting strength in the state.

For now, Niger can be described as an APC state. It was controlled by PDP until 2015 when the Buhari tsunami took over the state. In 2019,  the new ruling party was able to sustain the tempo to remain in power.

The state can still be referred to as leaning-APC though one cannot rule out the vital influence of the Kwankwasiyya group (NNPP) in view of the fact that he has these cult-like followers, especially in Niger north zone which is predominantly a Muslim area.

The most visible parties are APC and PDP with the NNPP following strongly behind.

For  NNPP, the party depends on the political structure of its governorship candidate, Alhaji Ibrahim Mohammed Sorodeke, who pulled out from the APC after the primaries along with his followers.

For the Labour Party, its inability to have candidates for all the National Assembly positions is a major setback. Another factor that may affect it is the fact that the power zoning policy of the state does not favor where its governorship candidate, Hon. Joshua Bawa, comes from. However, one cannot rule out a good outing from the party in Minna, Suleja, and Kontagora – being cosmopolitan areas.

In the 2015 general elections, people voted massively for  APC, and from all indications, the trend may remain the same because other parties have not shown seriousness in engaging in a massive campaigns. Also, they are yet to sell their plans to the people. For PDP, which should be a strong opposition, its followers only engage in trading insults. The party goes about its activities in a way that makes it look like a secret cult as no one knows its activities or what it is doing.

For now, APC and its candidates are likely to triumph as the case has been in the last two elections.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

NASARAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,899,244

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 273,460; APC: 236,838

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 289,903; APC: 283,847

As the people of Nasarawa State go to the polls on February 25th to elect a president and National Assembly members who would serve for the next four years, the major parties with substantial presence in the state are APC and PDP. NNPP and Labour Party have no base in Nasarawa State to cause any upset.

The election is actually a battle that is going to be fought in the 13 LGAs of the state with gladiators and political actors bringing every act in the arsenal to outsmart one another in arguably the most contentious election in the history of the country.

Nasarawa has since 1999, proved to be a stronghold of PDP until 2011 when CPC formed by Buhari was able to make incursion when its candidate Umaru Tanko Al-Makura defeated an incumbent PDP government led by the late Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma. Al-Makura of the CPC garnered 324,823 votes while Doma of PDP polled 320,938 votes to emerge as the lone CPC governor.

Buhari lost the state; PDP still maintained its lead in the presidential election. Al-Makura was the only governor who the CPC legacy party brought to the merger talks that birthed APC leading to the emergence of the incumbent in 2015.

All politics is local, it was totally surprising that ex-President Goodluck Jonathan defeeated Buhari (CPC) in the 2011 elections by  polling 408, 997 votes as against Buhari’s 278,390 – given the underpinning ethno-religious sentiments and PDP’s erstwhile entrenchment in Nasarawa politics.

Even in 2015 elections won by Buhari as APC candidate, he still lost narrowly to Jonathan in Nasarawa by 236,839 votes against Jonathan’s 273,460.

But by 2019, Al-Makura as outgoing governor was able to mobilize to break the jinx, as PDP’s Atiku polled 283,847 votes while Buhari of the APC garnered 289,903 votes making it the first of its kind for APC to win the presidential election in the state.

However, when these dynamics are put into play, the APC and the PDP seem to have 50-50 chances at the 2023 presidential election based on past antecedents.

It is on records that PDP has had an edge during  presidential election in Nasarawa State since 1999 as the state is yet to properly identify with the APC except in 2019. A lot of political heavyweights in Nasarawa are still lining behind  PDP.

PDP parades two influential former deputy governors,  Labaran Maku and John Mike Abdul, Senators Solomon Ewuga, Walid Jibrin, Suleiman Adokwe, Philip Gyunka among other political big wigs.

APC, led by the incumbent Governor Sule, equally has gladiators who actually decide the political direction of the state. They are the likes of Al-Makura, Abdullahi Adamu, the APC national chairman, as well as the current Minister of Environment, Hassan Mohammed and former Senator Abubakar Sodangi among others.

However, the party (APC) is sharply divided in the state due to the primaries the Abdullahi Adamu led APC national secretariat conducted in the state. Although Sule has done so much to ensure proper reconciliation, but majority of the key influential members of the APC are now in SDP like the current Senator representing Nasarawa North, Godiya Akwashiki and a  former member of the House of Representatives Ahmed Wadada. The two leaders  are senatorial candidates of the SDP.

Others in SDP include the Majority leader of the state House of Assembly, Tanko Tunga, state assembly member representing Nasarawa Eggon East, Mohammed Muluku, as well as two incumbent members of the House of Representatives representing Kokona/Keffi/ Karu Federal Constituency and Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency Jonathan Gaza and Dahiru Sarki. However, it is reliably gathered that all the SDP candidates in the state are supporting the re-election of Governor Abdullahi Sule and the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The APC will have to put up a much stronger fight than they did four years ago if they are to retain their supremacy in the state. This is because the margin of victory in 2019 was less than 12,000 votes. And unlike in previous elections where the PDP was characterized by infighting, there seems to be a remarkable shift this time around as party leaders appear to have shelved their differences for the unity of the party.

Despite the sharp division among the ranks and file of the APC leaders in the state, Al-Makura is the leader of Nasarawa South Senatorial District comprises  Lafia, Doma, Awe, Keana, and Obi LGAs. He is leaving no stone unturned to ensure he delivers his senatorial zone to APC presidential candidate.

In Nasarawa North Senatorial District,  which seems to be the home of PDP, is actually where the current Governor Abdullahi Sule hails from. It comprises  only three Local Government Areas,  namely Nasarawa Eggon, Akwanga and Wamba. Though with much opposition, Sule is equally expected to deliver his senatorial district to the APC presidential candidate.

In Nasarawa West Senatorial District, the zone of the current APC national chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, the current minister of Environment, Hassan Mohammed and speaker of the house of assembly, Balarabe Abdullahi who are both from the zone are expected to also deliver APC during the February 25th presidential election.

In 2019, a bulk of the APC votes came from Lafia, Keffi, Toto, Nasarawa, Awe and Keana LGAs. This was different from what obtained before.

Majority of the people in the northern part of the state where Sule hails from are expected to vote for Atiku and PDP. They did the same in 2019. The zone has been a stronghold of the opposition. The party’s governorship candidate, David Umbugadu and DG of the party’s presidential campaign council, Labaran Maku are equally from the zone. These leaders are Eggon by tribe which has the largest voting population in the zone.

Overall, Tinubu is expected to win in Nasarawa but all hands must be on deck.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

ADAMAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,196,566

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 251,664; APC: 374,701

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 410,266; APC: 378,078

The general picture of the February presidential election in Adamawa State shows two parties or presidential candidates in an almost equal race, one other not too far behind and a fourth one trailing a long way off.

As things stand right now, PDP which produced incumbent Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, remains the strongest party. It emerged from main opposition in 2019 to defeat APC form the present state government.

For the presidential election, famous son of the soil, Atiku, will test his might with his biggest rival Tinubu.

The ex-VP won his first major election in 1999 when, bearing the ticket of the same PDP, he become governor-elect of Adamawa State. He was  waiting for inauguration when he was made the presidential running mate to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. He has not let go the scent of the Presidential Villa since 2007.

Now as candidate, his being an indigene of the state alone is expected to count greatly for him. Outside his personal fame, many prominent people are rooting for his presidency across the state.

Fintiri leads the pack. The governor who previously had a close relationship with his Rivers State counterpart, Nyesom Wike, quickly sacrificed that friendship to stand by Atiku when the intra-party tussle started.

The state PDP chairman, Tahir Ahmed, is similarly a known as a die-hard Atiku man who has been so unapologetic about it that, in the countdown to the presidential primary. He told most aspirants who visited the state that Atiku was the state PDP’s only consideration.

The APC in the state as a family is expectedly championing the cause of its presidential ticket, but the cohesion of the party is right now unsure.

The party’s governorship candidate for the state, Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani is a highly popular person but  her emergence caused an intra-party rift which manifested in a court process which ended in Binani first being removed as a candidate and then being restored. The party does not seem to have returned to that solid base of unity which its well-wishers hope for.

This is, however, not expected to affect the party’s chances at the presidential election in the state, as, if anything, Tinubu may well become the unifying force for even bickering members.

Neither NNPP nor LP appear to have strong presidential presence in the state.

When NNPP was revived in Adamawa last year, a former deputy governor, Sa’ad Tahir, otherwise simply called MC Tahir, stood tall as the live wire, and he later became the governorship candidate. Another famous individual, Phineas Elisha, better known as PP Elisha, became the state chairman.

Both gave the NNPP a huge image in the state and they are the ones who should have been projecting the presidential candidate of the party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, but it is not happening, as both have been so quiet for several months. NNPP appears to have recorded a sudden death after its noisy rebirth in the state, especially after MC Tahir was named its governorship candidate in June last year.

He is said to be ill and battling to be fit to run for the office of governorship race on March 11. Tahir is the party’s financial backbone in the state.

Labour Party is worse off in reference to what is to be expected of the party’s presidential candidate in Adamawa State.

About the only politician of statewide reckon within the Labour Party fold in the state is its governorship candidate, Umar Mustapha, more widely called Otunba after his controversial Otunba of Ekiti title. But Otunba’s party is deeply divided in the state, with two opposing factions bearing their respective state chairmen.

 As the February 25 presidential election draws closer, history of the election in Adamawa favours PDP which has won the election most times since the beginning of this democratic dispensation in 1999, more so now that its flag bearer is from the state.

VERDICT: ATIKU/PDP

KATSINA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,516,719

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 98,937; APC: 1,345,441

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 308,056; APC: 1,232,133

Since 2015 general elections till date, the APC has been the dominant political party in Katsina State. The PDP and other opposition parties have remained distant second. This scenario is unlikely to change when voters go to the polls in two weeks.

Results of the presidential elections showed that APC not only cleared the polls in the Northwest states, but did extremely well in Katsina – winning by a landslide.

Breakdown of the percentage scores of the CPC/ APC in the period under the review in Katsina State during the presidential polls is as follows: 2011: CPC (70.9%); 2015: APC (92.83%); and  2019: APC (98.69%).

The support base of the current APC candidate Tinubu in Katsina is principally anchored by the following: President Muhammadu Buhari, Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Senator Abu Ibrahim, traditional rulers, APC members and leadership in the state, APC governorship candidate Dr. Dikko Radda, Deputy Speaker, Katsina House of Assembly, youth support groups and majority of Katsina citizens.

With Buhari now coming out to campaign for Tinubu, Atiku’s fate is sealed in the state. The PDP candidate might not secure 25% of the votes here.

It is, however, difficult to identify the  support base of other candidates, except that of Atiku which is not as profound as that of Tinubu

There is lower rating for Obi of Labour Party, Kwankwaso of NNPP and others. They are virtually non-existent in the state except for a few billboards 

Again, the protracted political and legal crisis that is rocking PDP has undermined the party’s presidential and governorship campaign platforms. Ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema’s camp doesn’t see eye to eye with Senator Lado Danmarke the party’s governorship candidate. The fallout is a divided party and candidates.

The Katsina chapter of NNPP as well as its presidential candidate Kwankwaso are yet to embark on any meaningful campaigns or preparation towards the coming elections.

Labour Party is less visible than the APC and PDP, but its chairman, Ibrahim Abu Musawa, who also doubles as governorship candidate, claims it is popular in the state.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KANO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 5,921,370

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 215,779; APC: 1,903,999

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 391,593; APC: 1,464,768

In Kano State, only three parties and their presidential candidates attract serious discussions. They are APC, NNPP and PDP. Labour Party is the fourth in terms of visibility but it has no structures in Kano. In this regard, only three presidential candidates: Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Atiku come to mind when making analyses and permutations on who will conquer the soul of the Northwestern state in the presidential election.

In 2019 presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari of APC scored 1,464,768 (78.9 per cent) of the total 1, 891,134 valid votes cast to beat the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 391,593 (21.1 per cent).

In 2019, Kano had 5,391,581 registered voters, out of which 2,006,410 voters were accredited for the presidential election. The result, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), showed that the total votes cast were 1,964,751, out of which 73,617 votes were rejected. Valid votes were 1, 891,134.

Ahead of the presidential election next month, the Kano voter registration has hit close to  6 million. But whereas in 2019 the election was a two-horse race between Buhari and Atiku, , three major presidential candidates  (Tinubu – APC; Kwankwaso – NNPP;  Atiku – PDP) will fight for Kano’s votes this time. The three parties are firmly rooted in the state. Labour Party’s Obi will get some votes.

As at now, Tinubu of the APC appears to be leading the race in Kano. Only few days ago, Tinubu’s popularity and momentum were clearly shown when he with his running mate Kashim Shettima, APC governors and party chiefs across the country shut down Kano State. The mammoth crowd was during ruling the  party’s  flag off  of its North-West presidential rally. The unprecedented crowd, drawn from across the 44 local government areas of the state for the rally, his supporters are contending,  signals that victory for the former Lagos governor is assured .

Slugging it out with  Tinubu in the state is Kwankwaso who is the NNPP presidential flag bearer. A son and former governor of the state, Kwankwaso is a household name in the state. However with the crowd being pulled by Tinubu across the country, some of his supporters are beginning to reason that even if the whole votes in Kano are given to Kwankwaso, he might not be able to win the presidency. Those who belong to this school of thought may decide not to ‘waste’ their votes on him. They may decide to vote for Tinubu who has a more likelihood of getting victory

Atiku’s chances of winning Kano are becoming slimmer by the day because of intra-party conflicts and litigations following parallel leadership structures which had troubled the PDP in Kano.

The crises led to factional primary elections. Recently, the court declared Mohammed Sani Abacha, son of the late Head of State, General Sani Abacha, as the duly nominated governorship candidate of the PDP in Kano. Before the judgment, Sadik Aminu Wali was the PDP’s governorship flag bearer in the state and the party was carrying out campaigns for him. The Court of Appeal just returned the ticket to Wali.

But the back and forth has demoralised many  members of  the party, with some of them migrating to APC. It was gathered that Atiku had asked  Kano PDP and NNPP chapters to work together.

During the meeting, it was gathered that he pleaded with Kwankwaso to do a silent merger with PDP in order to deliver him in Kano. Then Kwankwaso and his party chieftains, sources said, told Atiku and PDP stakeholders in the state to also deliver his NNPP governorship candidate Abba Kabir at the poll. Kwankwaso’s demand was rejected.

Those rejecting the candidacy of Abba Kabir point to the fact that he is a son-in-law to Kwankwaso. The two political parties (NNPP and PDP) have not arrived at consensus on who should be supported for the governorship and presidency when the court sacked Wali and installed Abacha.

Meanwhile, the APC governorship candidate, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna appears to be more stable. He and his running mate,  Murtala Sule Garo have been in the Ganduje administration and have penetrated the grassroots as the  election builds up.

Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has vowed to do his best to deliver Tinubu in the presidential election. He has sacrificed his senatorial ambition to retain more bigwigs in APC, thereby opening a wider door for followers and more participation. His influence as a serving governor cannot be undermined. Pundits say, besides resources, Ganduje will be using the state apparatuses to deliver the APC candidates in the state and by extension Tinubu.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

JIGAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,351,298

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 142,904; APC: 885,988

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 289,895; APC: 794,738

Only three parties are popular in Jigawa State. They are APC, PDP and NNPP. The negligible presence of LP in only two billboards in Dutse City roundabout.

But by all indication the race would be more between APC and PDP. NNPP may not likely make serious impact in the poll going by its activities in  the state. It is a straight fight between  APC and PDP as it was in 2015 and 2019. In 2019, APC secured 794, 738  to beat PDP which had 289,895.

A major setback for PDP in Jigawa is the involvement of President Buhari in the campaign for Tinubu. His mass followers have now got a sense of direction which may prove fatal for ex-Vice President Atiku.

Many people, especially in the rural areas, are not aware of the presidential and governorship candidates of the Labour Party. As at the time of filing this report,  the presidential candidate of LP Obi or his representative has not visited the state.

While the NNPP presidential candidate Kwankwaso who is an indigene of neighbouring Kano State  seems to have minimal  support in the state, his gubernatorial candidate, Mr. Aminu Ibrahim Ringim, is  not popular at all.  He has  never won his poling unit during when he was in office as a Special Adviser, Commissioner and Chief of Staff.

APC and PDP are making waves because of their strengths and campaign strategies. The two parties boast of political heavyweights and kingmakers.

Some of the big politicians in APC include Governor Abubakar Badaru , Second Republic Minister and two-term Senator, Bello Maitama,  a former Minority Leader in the House of Representatives , Honourable Faruk Adamu Aliyu, a former minister, Ambassador Abdulhamid Malammadori among others.

In the PDP are a former Minister and ex-Governor Sule Lamido, a former Senator and Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, former ministers, Alhaji Sale Shehu, Dr. Nurudeen Mohammed,  and  Ambassador Ibrahim Musa Kazaure etc

Though the two parties have good structures, the ruling APC seems to be at advantage and would likely be victorious in the coming elections.

Apart from being the party in power, the second citizen of the state is the governorship flag bearer of APC. Most of the incumbent  national and state legislative candidates have the resources to earn the confidence of voters.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

YOBE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,485,146

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 25,526; APC: 446,265

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 50,763; APC: 497,914

Yobe State has traditionally been a one-party state. Since the inception of democracy in 1999, the state has metamorphosed from SDP, APP, ANPP and subsequently joined the major political merger of AC, CPC and ANPP which dislodged PDP in 2015.

So, the presidential election may not bring any surprises for APC. The fortunes of other political parties in the state have continued to dwindle ahead of the February general elections with  a gale of defections into the ruling party.

During the last presidential election,  APC polled 497,914 votes and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 50, 763 votes. As at the last election, Yobe had a register of  1,365,913 voters. Out of the number, only  559,365 voted in the election.

At the gubernatorial election, Governor Mai Mala Buni of the APC scored 444,013 to beat his opponent Alhaji Bello Iliya  Damagum of the PDP who scored 95, 703 only.

As much as defections are seen to be trimming down the size of the opposition in favour of the ruling APC, pundits believe that a section of voters may be voting based on candidates instead of party loyalty.

Against this backdrop, the APC has always admonished its supporters  with the Hausa phrase: Kar kui cinkafa da waake, meaning “don’t do rice and beans”. The issue of support for individual candidates instead of party will always resonate among supporters in Yobe State as some of the people are die-hard supporters of former vice president Atiku.

But APC has launched some strategies to sway some of its supporters who might be voting for a different presidential candidate. One of those is the moral persuasion with facts by putting Tinubu side by side with Atiku.

According to Sardauna: “The political structure of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has since collapsed but that of Bola Ahmed Tinubu is still waxing stronger.

“The truth is that you cannot place the records of these two politicians side by side without Tinubu coming on top. Tinubu has built people in politics, in academia, business, name it.  The only thing Atiku does is to build his own businesses. The selfless disposition of Tinubu as a politician has placed him above all candidates that are running in this race.

“Tinubu as a governor did what Atiku could not do as a Vice President. Atiku could not construct a road to his village but Tinubu built a road on top of water as a governor. It is the APC government that constructed the road to Atiku’s village in Jada. The North-East did not benefit from his tenure as Vice President. It is obvious that he cannot do better than Tinubu who is tested and trusted, “Sarduna explained.

The APC State Secretary, Abubakar Bakabe said the party is primed to win the presidency in the state due to the support it has enjoyed from the administration of President Buhari.

In his views, the State Chairman of PDP in the State, Amb. Umar El-Gash believes that the presidency is for the PDP to beat.

“The issue of the Presidency is already settled. It is just like collecting an object from a little child. You don’t have to struggle. The evidence is clear that everywhere they shout Nigeria! People will say, Sai Atiku! ” This is even happening at an APC rally and that shows how popular our candidate is,” he said.

El-Gash also explained that the fortunes of PDP in Yobe State are more than ever stronger and the party will spring surprises with the use of technology in the coming election.

But some of the problems which may haunt PDP border on lack of unity and the recent defection of prominent members of the party to APC.

The defection of Sen. Mohammed Hassan, who is now appointed as the Director-General of the State APC Presidential Council, has further affected  PDP’s chances in Zone B, which used to be its stronghold. The defection of a former state chairman, senatorial candidate and gubernatorial aspirant Abba Gana Tata to APC is also a blow that the party is yet to recover from.

At a recent meeting in Damaturu during the inauguration of the State Presidential Campaign Council of the Party, the Leader of the party in the State Adamu Maina Waziri took responsibility for all the failures of the party in the State. He called on party supporters to be united during this electioneering and wrest power for the ruling APC in the State.

According to him, the party is repositioning to take over from Governor Mai Mala Buni.

But many are keen to watch and see how the apology will translate to the success of the party in the state.

Another strength of the PDP is Zone C , which  will rob APC of fortunes at the presidential election, is its gubernatorial candidate  Abdullahi Sheriff who hails from the area.

His tenure as the  elected  chairman of a local government from 1991 to1993 was described as glorious. This has attracted much love and appeal from his people.

His emergence as the gubernatorial candidate was a surprise to many as he defeated the former state chairman of the party and senatorial candidate in 2015, Alhaji Abba Ganatata.

“Our candidate  has a serious grassroots connection and we are going to shock  APC in Yobe at the polls. You can only underrate PDP in Yobe at your own risk. We have put our acts together and are ready for victory, In Sha Allahu,” Salihu, the State Publicity Secretary of PDP said.

Though the Yobe scenario looks like a two-horse race  between  APC and PDP, the NNPP and the Labour Party still have some supporters in the state.

Unlike the NNPP that has launched its campaign through its governorship candidate, Garba Umar, the Labour Party is yet to show any meaningful presence.

Just a few posters of Peter Obi can be sighted around Damaturu metropolis especially in the Christian-dominated areas of the town.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

SOKOTO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 5,921,370

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 152,199; APC: 671,926

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 361,604; APC: 490,333

The presidential contest in Sokoto will be between the candidates of APC, LP, NNPP and PDP.

But it may be a fight-to-the-finish between the APC and PDP. In 2019, APC secured 490,333 to beat PDP which had 351,604. With a population of over four  million people, going by past elections results, Sokoto State voting strength is approximately less than a million.

It is believed that this time around the voting pattern will no doubt change due to level of awareness, sentiments, negative impact of insecurity and poverty, loss of confidence in attitude of politicians ,  alleged poor representation and non-fulfillment of campaign promises

Besides, there are indications that most Igbo residents,  whose traditional choice has been  PDP have pitched tent with LP’s Obi against other candidates. This scenario may lead to  a significant departure from voting pattern in the state.

The arrowheads for the candidates in the caliphate are reaching out to the grassroots to outwit one  another. Those  for  PDP are  Governor Aminu Waziri  Tambuwal , former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa  and Yusuf Suleiman among the local politicians whose voices are reckoned with in the state’s politics. For Tambuwal,  his strengths are the influence and power of incumbency;  his records  in the National Assembly; his political experience and alleged fraternity with the Sultanate on one hand; and  alliance with ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa,  who also has significantly carved a political niche for himself after eight years as the governor of the state .

On the other side, the APC has its presidential campaign driving force in the state in former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, who is believed to be a political enigma endeared to people in the caliphate for his accessibility and listening ears . He has an unmatched political record  in the state for over a decade. Wamakko has over time remained a political idol for his generosity . He has been consistent in  winning elections. He is supported  by the Minister of Police Affairs, Muhammadu Maigari Dingyadi and its gubernatorial candidate and former deputy governor of the state, Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto and Chuso Abdullahi Datijjo.

The recent APC presidential rally addressed by Buhari and Tinubu attracted a massive crowd. Also, there continues to be speculations over the future of Deputy Governor, Manir Muhammad Dan Iya, whuch are a minus for PDP.

The NNPP and LP platforms seem not to have  representation  in the caliphate. Their arrowheads Senator Umaru Dahiru Tambuwal and Comrade Umar Aminu (gubernatorial candidates of the two parties respectively)  are  weak with less formidable  structures.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

TARABA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,022,374

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 310,800; APC: 261,326

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 374,743; APC: 324,906

Any of the three leading candidates, Tinubu of APC), Atiku of PDP and Labour’s Obi can win Taraba, depending on their level of mobilization in the heterogeneous state.

Certain factors such as political leaning of the state, popularity of the various presidential candidates, personality of the governorship candidates, religion and ethnicity will come into play in determining who wins here.

Traditionally, Taraba has been a stronghold of the PDP. The party has has a firm grip on the state. It has consecutively won both the governorship and presidential elections since the return of democratic rule in 1999.

As a matter of fact, Taraba, known as the ‘Nature’s Gift to the Nation,’ was the only PDP state in the Northeast from 2015 to 2019 when Bauchi joined the fold. The prevailing situation this time is, however, different. As the 2023 presidential election is concerned, the state can fall to any of the political parties.

In the 2019 polls, Atiku of PDP scored 374,743 votes to emerge winner while Buhari of APC polled 324,906 votes to be second. Out of the total 1,777,105 registered voters in the state, 777,105 eligible voters in Taraba were accredited, while 741, 564 votes were cast. Total number of valid votes was 712, 877. About 28, 627 votes were rejected.

It would have been an easy ride for Atiku to consolidate his winning streak in Taraba, given the fact that the governor, Darius Ishaku is PDP. But the party in the state appears not to be happy that ex-VP from the North instead of a Southerner emerged as the party’s presidential flag bearer.

Even though the PDP governorship candidate in the state Lt. Col. Agbu Kefas (rtd), is battling to defend his ticket against Jerome Nyameh at the Supreme Court, it wouldn’t have affected the support of Atiku. But the scenario in Benue is now applying in Taraba a bit. The PDP candidates in Benue and Taraba are campaigning for themselves, not for Atiku. Although Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue, alongside Nyesom Wike and other G-5 governors have publicly rejected Atiku’s presidential candidacy, Ishaku has kept mute. His silence and perceived lack of enthusiasm is being interpreted in many ways in the state.

Obi has been harvesting a new crop of supporters from the traditional voting population in Taraba. A lot of support groups are springing up by the day. So far, he is the only candidate who has staged a rally in Taraba with an entire youthful supporters showing up.

Earlier in August 2022, the ‘Obidient Movement’ successfully conducted a march in Jalingo to the astonishment of many. Taraba, being a Christian dominated state, the factor of religion is paving the way for Obi who is trying to poach the votes of the ruling PDP in the state. This will adversely affect Atiku if Obi succeeds.

Tinubu’s success in Taraba greatly depends on the success of Senator Emmanuel Bwacha who is the APC candidate in the state. Bwacha had defected lately from the PDP to clinch the gubernatorial ticket of APC against all odds. This led to a large number of APC supporters moving to NNPP with Professor Sani Yahaya who is the governorship candidate. Also, one of the governorship aspirants, David Sabo Kente (DSK) and many of the party bigwigs are at daggers drawn with Bwacha over the May 26, 2022 APC governorship primary poll. Kente has vowed to work against the party in the state. The APC has strongholds in the Taraba Central zone and in some parts of northern Taraba. How the intra-party squabbles are resolved would determine Tinubu and APC’s chances in the state next month.

VERDICT: PDP

ZAMFARA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,485,146

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 144,833; APC: 612,202

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 125,423; APC: 438,682

Despite the backing of a former National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau for Atiku, there are strong indications that APC may retain its grip on Zamfara State as it did in the 2019 presidential poll. The party garnered 438,682 compared with PDP’s 125, 423. APC is in good stead because its intra-party crises have been resolved. All the major players in the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which ruled the state for many years, have reunited and are in APC.

The heavyweights in Zamfara include ex-governors Abdulaziz Yari, who was initially at odds with the incumbent governor, Bello Matawalle, Ahmad Sani Yerima and Mahmud Shinkafi. Others are Sen.  Kabiru Marafa, a former Defence Minister, Mansur Dan-Ali, ex-Minister Bashir Yuguda, and Hassan Sahabi,

The chances of APC have been buoyed by the performance of Matawalle, who in spite of security challenges has made a mark. The governor is a chief marketer of the party. In the health sector, Matawalle has performed creditably. Apart from providing 145 primary healthcare centers, the governor has engaged over 500 health workers and about 150 medical doctors. He also completed Shinkafi Referral Hospital which had been in the works since 2009.

The pillar of the PDP in the state is Gusau. He is campaigning seriously for Atiku. The opposition party is, however, just getting its act together after a reprieve for its governorship candidate, Dauda Lawal from the Court of Appeal in Sokoto. The court last week affirmed him the rightful governorship candidate of the party.

Despite Gusau’s effort, PDP’s structure is weak in the state. It is contending with intra-party stress, lack of cohesion in the State Executive Committee (SEC), suspension of some key officers, defection of its Women Leader to APC; local government chapters’ chairmen working at cross-purpose with the State Executive Committee.

The opposition is coming late into the race in Zamfara State.

A major problem in the state is insecurity. Many residents of the state have been abducted by insurgents. The abductees are in captivity. Will this affect the turnout of voters in the state? Zamfara is one of the four of the seven states in the North-West affected by banditry.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KEBBI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,032,041

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 100,972; APC: 567,883

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 154,282; APC: 581,552

If all hands are on deck, the odds favour APC more than the factionalised PDP in Kebbi State. The former had in 2019 presidential election dusted the latter with 581,552 to 154,282 votes.

The current situation has shown that APC may still have the upper hand because its choice of governorship candidate, Idris Nasir (Kauran Gwandu) from Gwandu Emirate, was a clincher. Nasir’s profile as National President of the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) has endeared him to many people in the state. He is a popular grassroots man.

The ruling party is united and stronger with the clout of the Governor Atiku Bagudu, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr. Abubakar Malami (SAN); ex-Governor Usman Dakingari, a former President of Miyyeti Allah, Kiruwa Zuru; a former Chairman of PDP in the state, Bashir Shehu and a former member of the Board of Trustees of PDP, Sani Zauro. Bagudu, described as a strategist, has also done well to the admiration of the poor, especially farmers.

But, the spirit of APC in Kebbi State is Malami, who has impacted and earned huge followership in the four emirates: Gwandu, Yauri, Argungu and Zuru. “Whether you like it or not, Malami’s influence is huge such that he cannot be ignored.

“The AGF actually conceded the governorship slot to Bagudu in 2015 on a platter of gold,” a reliable source added.

The opposition party is torn apart by the rivalry between a former Minister of the Federal capital Territory, Sen. Adamu Aliero and a former Minister of Special Duties, Mallam Kabiru Tanimu Turaki (SAN). While Aliero is on his own, Turaki is in collaboration with PDP leaders like a former Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi, Gen. Bello Sarki Yaki and other bigwigs. A former Acting National Chairman of PDP, Mohammed Haliru Bello, is on the same page with the PDP governorship candidate, Gen. Aminu Bande. A former Senate Leader, Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi, is also in his own world fighting for survival.

A source said: “PDP is in disarray in the state because Aliero wants to be in charge and other leaders are resisting his larger-than-life mien.

“The loss of senatorial tickets by Aliero and Yahaya has been humbling and a major setback for Aliero and PDP in the state. These leaders are distracted and their followers confused.

“Although all the factions may come together to rescue Atiku Abubakar but there is no direction for the members and supporters of the opposition party at present in Kebbi State.”

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY (FCT)

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,570,307

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 157,195; APC: 146,399

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 259,997; APC: 152,224

The election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is difficult to predict at this time because its political shape has changed with the emergence of Obi as the presidential candidate of Labour Party.

The PDP has always had the upper hand in terms of poll results in the FCT.

This development is due to the predominant Christian population in the Centre of Unity.

In 2019, Atiku won the election in the FCT with 259,997 votes against 152, 224 by President Buhari of APC.

In addition, the results of the last Area Council elections in the FCT showed that the six chairmanship seats were evenly shared by PDP and APC, notwithstanding the fact that FCT is the nation’s seat of power and government notwithstanding.

PDP won the chairmanship slots in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Kuje, Bwari Area Councils while APC took over Gwagwalada, Kwali, Abaji.

Election in FCT at any time is unique because unlike Nigeria’s 36 states, the territory has no governor but it is run by a minister who is appointed by the president of the country.

Also, unlike in the 36 states where state electoral commissions organise the council elections, the FCT council election is statutorily conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

It is a tight race despite PDP’s ambition to reenact its winning ways with the presence of chieftains like the Chief Whip of the Senate and Senator representing FCT, Philip Aduda and three of its Chairmen in AMAC, Bwari and Kuje, and two PDP House of Representatives members representing AMAC/Bwari and Abaji/Gwagwalada/Kwali/Kuje Federal Constituencies.

However, the challenge presented by the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), may upset the results of t the February 25, 2023 presidential election, thereby denying the PDP and its presidential candidate victory.

It is a two-horse race in FCT between APC’s presidential candidate, Tinubu and Atiku. The chances of Obi still appear remote. His influence is high in AMAC but low in the remaining five area councils of Gwawalada, Kuje, Bwari, Abaji and Kwali.

The Christianity factor and thick Igbo population may affect PDP’s votes in the territory.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KOGI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,932,654

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 149,987; APC: 264,851

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 218,207; APC: 285,894

Kogi became an APC state in 2015 when Governor Yahaya Bello assumed control, after the supplementary election. Already, the APC candidate, the late Alhaji Abubakar Audu, was coasting home to victory when he suddenly passed on. Following his inauguration, the governor consolidated his hold on the ruling party and the state.

In 2019, Bello also defeated Musa Wada of PDP.

Buhari and Atiku competed fiercely for votes in the state in 2019. At the close of the  presidential poll, APC scored 283,894 while PDP got 218,207 votes.

Both parties are visible in the Northcentral state. Between 1999 and 2003, Audu governed the state on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). He was succeeded by Ibrahim Idris of PDP, who ruled between 2003 and 2011. From 2011 to 2011, another PDP chieftain, Captain Idris Wada, ruled the state. Thus, APC and PDP have formidable structures in Kogi.

Those rooting for LP in the Confluence State are very few.

Kogi APC and PDP are simultaneously preparing for presidential and governorship elections. In the view of the chieftains, the fate of the governorship poll is tied to the presidential election.

In the last eight years, Bello has asserted himself as a leader. Controversy has dogged his steps on some occasions, but he has been very effective, both as governor and party leader.

He is expected to bow out soon after eight years. Therefore, he is working hard to install a successor. Sources said the governor, who is from Ebiraland, is pushing for a successor from Igala, the majority ethnic group likely to give the APC many votes. His deputy,  Edwand Onoja, they said, may be the beneficiary.

But, Kogi West is also not relenting. The West is calculating that if it gives bloc votes to the APC, it may assist its agitation for governorship power shift.

Kogi APC has the advantage of incumbency. Members are not ready to allow power to slip away. The three senators, Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West), Isa Echocho (East) and Yakubu Oseni (Central) are chieftains of APC.

Bello and his team have embarked on aggressive mobilisation. After the presidential primary in Abuja last year, he has donated his campaign office to Tinubu. He has also been very active as a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council.

However, APC should not be overconfident.

PDP is not at sleep. Although party elders, including General Tunde Ogbeha, General David Jemibewon and Alex Kadiri, appeared to have slowed down political activities, PDP youths are vibrant.

They include Dino Melaye and Tijani Yusuf, a member of the House of Representatives,  who is aspiring to go to Senate.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KWARA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,695,927

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 132,602; APC: 302,146

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 138,184; APC: 308,984

Ahead of next month presidential election in the country, the political temperature in Kwara State is rising. The four major parties canvassing for votes are PDP, APC, LP and NNPP.

Other parties in contention in the state with visible candidates are Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Young Progressives Party (YPP).

All the governorship candidates and other candidates at all levels have been rooting for their presidential candidates.  Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who is seeking for reelection has been canvassing for the APC presidential candidate Tinubu.

The governor’s  performance in   over three years in office has endeared him to many Kwarans particularly people at the lower rungs of the ladder. This has stood APC in good stead too.

The mass followership that the party’s Kwara Central senatorial candidate, Mallam Saliu Mustapha, has garnered over the years, as a result of his philanthropic gestures is also a plus for the party in the state. Mustapha is a game changer for APC

Curiously, all the other governorship candidates except, that of PDP Alhaji Shuaibu Abdullahi are from Kwara Central. The other candidates who were members of the Otoge movement in 2019, parted ways with the governor based on some seemingly irreconcilable political differences. They are Hakeem Lawal (SDP), Yakubu Gobir (YPP) and Prof Shuaib AbdulRaheem (NNPP).

Despite their defection, the supporters of these candidates have resolved to cast their votes for the APC presidential candidate in February.

In Kwara South and North senatorial districts the resolve to vote for APC presidential candidate is legendary. The performance of the current senator representing Kwara North, Umar Sadiq made the coast clearer for the party.

In Kwara South, supporters of SDP, YPP, NNDP are determined to cast their votes for APC presidential candidate. Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, who lost his bid to return to the senate to represent Kwara Central to Mustapha said that in spite of the APC primaries charade, he remains a bonafide member of the party because of Tinubu and the interest of the party.

The PDP hitherto in the saddle before the current administration at both national and state is banking on the old goodwill of former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki

However, many Kwarans have vowed that the Saraki dynasty would never return to political reckoning in the state. And this might have a reverberating effect on the PDP presidential candidate Atiku.

The choice of Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi from Kwara North as the governorship candidate in the state is strategic. The district has over the years, been crying of being  relegated to the back waters of politics in the state.

Kwara North where Abdullahi hails from is for and against for him. The snag against PDP in the region is the infrastructural touch by the governor.

In Kwara South, PDP may make some inroads because of its senatorial candidate, Rafiu Ibrahim, but Tinubu has an old affinity with the people of the district who are mostly businessmen in Lagos.

In Kwara Central, which is the base of Saraki it is likely going to be battle royale between APC and PDP. Incidentally, supporters of the other governorship candidates might cast their votes for Tinubu.

Little or nothing is known about Labour Party in the state. Its governorship candidate too, Basambo, is not known in the political and power calculus of the state. All that is known about him is that he is a legal practitioner.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

EDO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,501,081

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 208,469; PDP: 286,869

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 267,842; PDP: 275,691

The ruling party in Edo State is the PDP. But, the other two parties – the APC and the Labour Party (LP) – cannot be dismissed with the wave of hand.

The three candidates -Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) – are household names in the South-South state. Other presidential flagbearers are not visible in the state.

Edo is a big, heterogenous state. But, there is no linkage between ethnicity and political choice as far as the presidential poll is concerned.

Although Atiku’s running mate, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, is governor of the neighbouring state, the geographical continuity has no influence on Edo’s preparation for the exercise.

What is also striking in Edo is that people are gravitating towards candidates projected by the three parties, not because of their assessment of their plans for them or the country, but because the parties are mobilising them and steering them to embrace the direction being charted. There is no evidence to show that the manifestos of the presidential candidates are shaping political behaviour.

Neither can the anticipated poll outcome be exclusively premised on campaign crowd. The rallies organised for Tinubu, Atiku and Obi have attracted huge crowds. 

Eyes are only on the three candidates. The chieftains of the three major parties have returned to the drawing board to perfect their scheming strategies ahead of February 25.

There is renewed hostility between the governor and his former godfather. Governor Godwin Obaseki wants to use the election to make a point. Although the APC-led Federal Government of Buhari has never turned the heat on him, he knows that he will be in a more comfortable position if his party controls the centre as from May 29 because the atmosphere will become conducive for succession politics in Edo.

Obaseki is in his second term and after the general election, attention will shift to governorship poll in his state.

Similarly, his predecessor and one-time benefactor, Adams Oshiomhole, is working hard so that APC can bounce back. Some of his fanatical followers are members of the House of Assembly who have been deprived enjoying the benefits of the positions they were elected into for four years. The former national chairman, apart from being a trusted ally of Tinubu, is also vying for Senate in his native Edo North District. He has fought many battles in the past. He won some, he lost some. But, next month’s election is a special challenge to him as party leader and candidate.

Obi, who has hired the LP for the poll, appears to be making waves, particular in the metropolis. He is leaning on the strength of his Igbo kinsmen who are traders in some parts of Edo, youths who are queuing behind him in the social media and some students of tertiary institutions.

In the 2019 presidential poll, Atiku scored 275,691 votes, defeating Buhari who got 267,691 votes, with a margin of 7,849 votes.

Between then and now, many issues have been thrown up, which are likely to shape the presidential election.

In the last two years, Edo, like some other states, have not been having it rosy. The governor is not presiding over a united state. Peace has also eluded some areas due to the activities of kidnappers. The political upheaval, in-fighting in the ruling party, and attacks by the opposition over performance by the government have made the state a near-crisis zone.

As the foot soldiers of the parties intensify their campaigns for their respective presidential candidates, they are also trying to deal with the burning issues, appropriately and inappropriately.

Although Obaseki’s defection to PDP boosted its chance of reclaiming the State House of Assembly, it has also divided the party as old party chieftains, led by Chief Daniel Orbih, have consistently alleged marginalisation, exclusion, winner-takes-all attitude and loss of sense of belonging.

The cracks have become widened, and there is no ‘Mr. Fix It’ of the late Chief Tony Anenih’s stature to bring the two camps together for crisis resolution.

Thus, the two factions locked in antagonism are strengthened by their irreconcilable agenda.

Obaseki’s faction and that of Orbih, who is an ally of Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, leader of the G-5 PDP governors that are yet to endorse Atiku, are working at cross purposes because of the hard conditions for settlement proposed by the Orbih camp and the governor’s reluctance to give concessions that may ultimately weaken his faction.

Both factions have been in and out of court, and reconciliation has been futile because powerful external forces have also shown interest in the Edo PDP crisis.

With Obaseki are Deputy Governor Phillip  Shuaibu; the state chairman of the party, Senator Ordia, who is representing Edo Central District; and Speaker of the 10-man House of Assembly. According to observers, the faction’s grip on the party is weak. But Governor Obaseki is using the structure of government to campaign for Atiku. The Orbih camp, for now, is non-committal to the Atiku project. It is perhaps, waiting for further directives from the five aggrieved governors.

The Orbih’s faction is, however, elated that its candidates in the other elections are the ones recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This has boxed the governor into a position of disadvantage and anxiety. How that plays out in the proposed elections will be interesting.

If PDP, which is the ruling party, unites behind Atiku, he will do well in the state. But, judging by the escalation of hostility between Atiku and the G5, the likelihood of truce is becoming increasingly remote.

Both factions are active on the campaign field, although they are not combining strengths. The Orbih faction is campaigning for State and National Assrmbly candidates, without mention of Atiku. The perception of crisis and division is a demoralising factor for party members and supporters across the local governments and wards.

However, the base of the PDP may also be affected by the presence of Obi of the LP in the race. Many youths and Christian voters who supported Atiku in 2019 may switch to the LP candidate.

A source said a top member of Obaseki government is even lending financial help to LP. He is said to be gazing at the future. His calculation is that if Obaseki does not endorse him for governor, he can fall back to LP. The source also pointed out that some of the candidates of LP are PDP members who defected when they lost out during the primaries.

Obi is being studied as the third force in Edo. To analysts, he is likely to spring surprise in some parts of the state, particularly Benin metropolis-Oredo, Egor and Ikoba Okha.

Also, in Auchi, a melting point which hosts the polytechnic and some commercial centres, the LP candidate may get votes from youths, students and Igbo traders who have spare parts shops in the axis. When Obi stormed Auchi for a rally, the crowd of youths and traders was huge.

Coincidentally, Oshiomhole was also on campaign train in the area. The crowd was sharply divided. Some stayed with Obi; others followed the former governor.

But, a source said it is a different ball game in the hinterland, where Obi is a stranger to rural dwellers.

The former Anambra governor’s constraints, despite his seeming rising profile in some parts of Edo, include lack of formidable structure, absence of strong candidates for legislative seats and lack of synergy among his scattered Obidients.

APC is led by Oshiomhole. With him are Pastor Osagie Ize -Iyamu, APC governorship candidate in 2020; Oshiomhole’s former deputy, Dr. Pius Odubu, and the state chairman of the party, Colonel Imuse.

APC National Assembly members are also mobilising party members in their constituencies.

Unlike the PDP, the party’s rank is comparatively united. Although there is repressed friction between Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu, which was a fallout of the last governorship poll, it has not affected the chapter. The chieftains have been campaigning vigorously for Tinubu.

According to analysts, Edo has a history of identifying with performers, and with Tinubu’s record of performance in Lagos State, many voters in the state, particularly the perceptive ones, will vote for him. He is expected to do well.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

DELTA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,221,697

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 48,910; PDP: 1,211,405

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 221,292; PDP: 594,068

This is the home state of PDP vice presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa. As governor, it would have been expected that the powers of incumbency and added boost of being Atiku’s running mate, would make things rosy. That has not been the case as the party if facing a fierce challenge.

Despite being hobbled by internal crisis, PDP has executed a well-planned campaign to woo voters, with a resurgent APC matching its main rival, every inch of the way.

The Delta APC is the main challenger to the ruling party’s hegemony. A major albatross facing the PDP in the forthcoming presidential election is the defections of several high profile personalities to APC and other fringe parties, leaving a severely weakened ruling party.

This has enabled APC make inroads into PDP strongholds. Within the ruling party are a large number of aggrieved persons under the pressure group, Delta Unity Group (DUG) led by Prof Patrick Mouboghare who have sworn to work against the interest of the party.

Also, there is a perception among the various ethnic groups of failure on the part of PDP to develop their regions. This has led to mass resignations from the party with the APC a major beneficiary. This has resulted in new alliances and realignments being forged which may be detrimental to the chances of the ruling party in the presidential polls.

For example, although ex-Governor James Ibori remains in the PDP, his indifferent attitude to the fortunes of the party is as clear as crystal. Infact, he has been seen fraternising with the opposition, attending opposition social events and absenting himself from PDP campaigns, even those held in Oghara, his hometown.

Delta Central Senatorial District with its huge voter population is the stomping ground of the Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, who hails from the district. He has won back-to-back victories against PDP stalwarts, including Hon. Evelyn Oboroh 2015 and Chief Ighoyota Amori 2019 in past elections and may repeat the feat in the presidential poll. The ruling party is no longer the force it once was on account of mass defections.

In Delta South Senatorial District comprising the Ijaws, Isokos and Itsekiris, large numbers of aggrieved former PDP stalwarts have left in droves. These defections may be the PDP’s undoing. But there has been a groundswell of support for Labour Party in Isoko land and some urban centres, but the question is can that support translate to huge votes for it in the presidential poll?

The Ijaw areas with a high voter turnout, may vote in favour of APC, because sentiments are rife among them over developmental issues. With the recent visit of the party’s presidential flagbearer Tinubu to ex-militant leader, Government Ekpemukpolo, in the creeks, the signs are ominous for the PDP. The Itsekiris, who have always felt left behind in terms of development and may choose to vote against PDP, with so many of their leaders leaving the party.

In Delta North, aside from Asaba, Oshimili South LGA and Ika North East LGA where Okowa hails, there is the perception that the PDP has failed to address the developmental challenge facing them. Of the seven local government areas, the ruling party may struggle to get results at the presidential poll, judging from the groundswell of disaffection. Some communities have on several occasions refused the ruling party’s campaign team entry.

Despite the fact that appeal for Labour Party has grown in parts of the state, especially urban centres, winning the presidential poll will be an uphill task. The NNPP, a fringe party, may not fare better in the upcoming presidential election as it lacks the structure and appeal among a large section of the populace to cause an upset victory in the presidential poll.

VERDICT: PDP

CROSS RIVER STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,766,466

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 28,368; PDP: 414,863

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 117,302; PDP: 295,737

Several political factors are likely to determine how the presidential election will turn in Cross River State. The first has to do with the fact that the presidential election is combined with the National Assembly elections. That means it is possible that one may rub off on another. For instance, a popular National Assembly candidate who has the ears of his constituents may get their support for his or her preferred presidential candidate.

The message would simply been “vote for my party” because allowing freedom of choice in one out of the two elections on the same day and time is risking a mistake by the uneducated who would not have opportunity for correction.

It is on the basis of these that pundits believe the APC candidate will win Cross River and will be followed by the Labour and PDP candidates – in that order

The argument for this is that APC being the ruling party in Cross River State will enjoy incumbency advantages in addition to the strength of their National Assembly candidates. In the northern senatorial district, the party has the incumbent governor, Ben Ayade, seeking the district’s seat against a seating senator from the opposition PDP. In addition to the governor contesting, APC also have two strong House of Representatives candidates in the district seeking to return back to the National Assembly. So, the probabilities are that the party will win the northern senatorial district election both in the presidential race and the National Assembly race.

In the Central district, a similar scenario may play out because APC has two incumbent National Assembly members seeking to return out of the three seats in the district. The strength of these two legislators plus many stakeholders of the party in the district; such as the former Senate Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba (SAN) and Sen. John Owan-Enoh are likely to give an edge to APC.

The Southern district may be slightly different in calculations.

The National Assembly candidates of the APC are in a stiff contest that is too close to call. But the common factor which is being worked on is the need to support the presidential candidate if not for any other reason but for the fact that most of them want the victory of the APC governorship candidate whose election is for a later date.

 “So to make it easier for Prince Bassey Otu subsequent election victory, we need to support his party presidential candidate”, said a rural dweller in Calabar South Local Government Area.

However, there are other schools of thought and factors that believe the Labour Party candidate will do better in Cross River State.

Pundits, however, have not ruled out the strength of the PDP in the state but it is believed that the odds are against the party because they are divided into two camps. One led by former Governor Liyel Imoke are supporting Atiku. The other is led by the party governorship candidate, Sen. Sandy Onor. This camp is in support of Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike’s fight against Atiku at the national level, so they are not campaigning for the PDP candidate in the state.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

AKWA IBOM STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,357,418

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 58,411; PDP: 953,304

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 175,429; PDP: 395,832

The presidential election in Akwa Ibom state is going to be fiercely contested between the APC, PDP and LP candidates.

Having done their campaigns in the state at various times, they have been able to gather supporters and foot soldiers who believe in their agenda for a better Nigeria, especially as it will positively affect the state.

 However, not all the three presidential candidates have equal prospects of winning the oil-state because of certain factors working for or against them or the advantages each of them has over the rest.

For instance, Atiku is riding on the advantage that Akwa Ibom is a PDP state. It is expected that he will get more votes than Obi and Tinubu.

Governor Udom Emmanuel, who is chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, is relentless in mobilising support for Atiku. He has also directed all candidates of the party to include Atiku in their individual campaigns.

But feelers gathered indicate that Atiku may not even win in the state because of the sentiment among Akwa Ibom people that power should shift to the South after President Buhari completes his second term in office come May 29 this year.

In their closets members of the PDP express their readiness to jettison party loyalty and vote a candidate from the South. This means that they are faced with Tinubu and Obi as options.

A top member of the PDP said, “We will vote candidates of our party from the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, Senate and Governor. But members of the party are not duty bound to vote Atiku as president.

“We are not against his emergence as the party’s presidential flagbearer neither do we question how he emerged but we believe in the unity of Nigeria and the fact that power should rotate between the North and South”.

On the part of Obi, he is very popular among youths, businessmen and women, students, professionals, technocrats and ordinary people on the streets.

If only popularity and street loyalty could help a candidate win election, Obi would win with a wide margin. The crowd of supporters who turned out to grace his presidential campaign in the state proves that he is loved in the state.

But despite having a massive cult following, Obi has no solid political structures in the state. The Labour Party is not on ground. Apart from stickers, campaign posters and billboards of Obi/Datti which dot the streets of Uyo, the Akwa Ibom state capital, the party is not visible.

To make matters worse, most voters in the state do not know the party’s governorship candidate. As at today, the party is not carrying out campaigns for any of the elective offices apart from campaigning for Obi.

Tinubu has the advantage of contesting on the platform of the ruling APC at the centre which might deploy federal might to ensure he wins in the state.

Again, he has the likes of former governor Godswill Akpabio, former Petroleum Minister, Chief Don Etiebet, Niger Delta Affairs Minister, Obong Umana Umana, and former deputy governor, Mr. Nsima Ekere among others are on his side. These are considered the ‘Generals’ of Akwa Ibom politics capable of swinging victory for the Asiwaju.

Tinubu during his presidential campaign in the state promised to boost employment and wealth creation through the development of the Ibom Deep Seaport and enormous oil and gas potentials in the state.

These two critical areas are very dear and germane to the economy of the state. Voters in the state would vote for Tinubu to enable him actualise these laudable projects.

However, some factors may work against Tinubu in the state. First is that the APC is not as united as it should be. The party has been enmeshed in factional crisis which worsened during the governorship nomination.

Though it was able to host a successful presidential rally for Tinubu/Shettima, the party has been wearied by many years of internal  crisis to be able to make appreciable impact for Tinubu.

Again, there some pockets of discontent among members. For instance the former presidential aide, Senator Ita Enang has been expelled from the party following his insistence on challenging the emergence of Obong Akanimo Udofia as the party’s governorship candidate.

He is currently struggling in the courts to be reinstated. It is expected that he is not going to mobilize his supporters to vote for the APC candidates. There are feelers that he might even dump the party if he fails to get justice in the courts.

But on the whole, as far as Akwa Ibom state is concerned, the sentiment of voters is tended towards a Southern president. In terms of popularity and acceptability, Obi is likely to win. Tinubu also has a good chance of winning if the APC in the state is ready to sink their differences and work unitedly.

VERDICT: PDP

OGUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,688,305

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 308,290; PDP: 207,950

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 281,762; PDP: 194,655

Going by the support enjoyed by APC as the ruling party, the party appears ready for whatever challenge the opposition may throw its way. Almost all the political bigwigs in the state are members of the party. To start with, all former governors of the state alive today                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    are APC chieftains. Former Governor Segun Osoba has been the leader of APC in the state since inception while immediate past governor, Ibikunle Amosun, in spite of his lingering face-off with Governor Dapo Abiodun, has never left the party since it was formed.

In February 2021, former Governor Gbenga Daniel officially defected to APC, barely two years after serving as Director-General of the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign Organisation at the last presidential election. He had in March 2019 officially resigned from the party, saying he was pulling out from partisan politics. He was received into APC at his Asoludero residence, Sagamu, by Abiodun, Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje and Niger State Governor, Abubakar Bello.

Aside the three former governors, the APC in Ogun boasts of almost all former Deputy Governors and ex-National Assembly members. Across the three senatorial districts, the party enjoys the support of the major leaders, leaving the opposition with starters and a few notable figures. Before his death last year, Buruji Kashamu, was about the only formidable politician that was not a member of the APC. Today, many of his then allies have joined the ruling party.

In Ogun West, the unusual coalition among the camps of Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi), Hon. Abiodun Akinlade (Baba Adeen), and Gboyega Isiaka (GNI), according to analysts, will deliver the votes for the APC presidential candidate in February. For the first time in years, the three leading heavyweights in the district are working for the same candidate. Former minister, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo, former Deputy Governor, Alhaja Salmat Badru and former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Suraj Adekunbi, are also in APC.

Incumbent Deputy Governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Vice Director-General of the Ogun State APC Campaign Council from Ogun West, Chief Jide Ojuko, House of Representatives candidate for Ado-Odo/Ota Federal Constituency, Tunji Akinosi, Chief Kunle Salako, Chief Sikiru Adegbite, and several other prominent leaders in the district are poised to work for the success of APC’s Tinubu next February.

Ogun East is also looking good for APC as Abiodun and Daniel lead the party in the zone. While the governor is seeking re-election, Daniel is the APC candidate for the 2023 senatorial election in the distirct that will take place same day as the presidential election. Both Senator Gbenga Kaka and Lekan Mustapha are also in APC to complete the team that is sure to win the area for Tinubu ahead of any other presidential candidate, in spite of the presence of Adebutu, the PDP governorship candidate in the zone.

Immediate past Post Master General of the Federation, Asiwaju Bisi Adegbuyi, Senator Dipo Odujirin, Otunba Oluseyi Oduntan, a former Managing Director of the Honeywell Group, Olusegun Olumide-Senbanjo, Deji Ashiru popularly known as EDA, Hon. Biyi Adeleye, and many other prominent politicians have all signed up for the Tinubu presidency project and are working round the clock to deliver the zone to the APC presidential candidate.

The PDP also have a strong presence in Ogun East, especially in the Remo axis. But for the crisis between the camps of Adebutu and the late Kashamu, the party would be expected to do well in the Ijebu axis too where the late senator’s political influence still abounds.

But analysts say it will be difficult for the party to match the efforts currently being put in place by APC in the district ahead of the presidential election.

The PDP, in spite of its unending crisis, still boasts of widespread presence in the state. Though factionalised, the party has managed to retain its popularity in some parts, especially in Ogun East where both the late Kashamu and Adebutu, hail from. However, the party has lost most of its heavyweights to APC since the last general elections, largely due to the unending internal wrangling that bedeviled it since 2011. Sadly, the remnant of the party is also divided into factions.

For Kwankwaso and the NNPP, Ogun is definitely not a place where they will garner much votes. The party and its candidate are simply not in the picture as far as the presidential election is concerned in the state. It has not campaigned anywhere in the state and its offices are not visible if they even exist at all.

In Ogun State, the contest is between APC, which is the ruling party in the state, and PDP. In spite of the fact that an intra-party struggle for the leadership of the latter weakened the opposition in the state, the Sikiru Ogundele-led State Executive Committee (SEC) has managed to keep its challenge to APC alive. Thus, the two parties are expected to continue their rivalry in the presidential contest.

For the LP, its presence is largely felt in Abeokuta, the state capital and Ijebu-Ode in the East Senatorial District.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

OSUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,954,800

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 383,603; PDP: 249,929

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 347,634; 337,377

Ahead of next month’s general election, APC and PDP in Osun State are gathering their arsenal to secure votes for their presidential candidates.

The two leading political parties renewed their battle barely seven months after the governorship election of July 16th, 2022 when candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke defeated the incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, with 28,344 votes after he polled 403,371 votes against 375,027 votes.

Another leading political party, Labour, is joining the scramble for votes.

Parties are drawing pattern of victory for 2023 poll from the analysis of results of 2019 presidential election and 2022 Osun guber election to make projections.

In 2019, shortly after the 2018 Osun gubernatorial election when Oyetola emerged, APC floored PDP with 10,297 votes after the party got 347,674 votes against Atiku’s 337,377 votes.

Although, PDP is currently enjoining a political honeymoon in the state, they have their limitations because of the weight of APC candidate Tinubu.

The resolve of Southern governors to zone 2023 presidency to the south is a big challenge for PDP because many voters of PDP during the July 16th 2022 Osun governorship poll are likely to mobilise support for APC, while small fractions of them will support LP candidate Obi.

Also, many of the supporters who voted PDP during 2022 governorship will vote for a candidate that they are connected with in 2023. Tinubu will be the beneficiary.

The recent action by the faction of Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, of dissolving the faction named The Osun Progressives (TOP) and return to the mainstream of APC will further boost the winning strategy of the party.

The loyalists of Aregbesola who sat back during 2022 election have decided to mobilise support for candidates APC. The unity is further cemented by inclusion of the leader of the faction, former chairman of the party, Adelowo Adebiyi and ex-speaker of Osun Assembly, Najeem Salam, in the APC Presidential Campaign Committee.

Also, the glaring inaction in governance style of PDP led administration since November 27th, 2022 till date will work in favour of APC.

APC will garner massive votes in Osun Central which has the highest number of registered voters because of the influence of first interim chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande as Adegboyega Oyetola will record almost same vote he recorded in 2022 in Boripe Local Government Area by getting bloc votes in Aagba, Iree, Iragbiji, Ada and many more.

Similarly, Osun East Senatorial district which has second highest number of registered voters, APC will record large votes which will pave way for victory for the party because of the influence of the national secretary of the party, Senator Iyiola Omisore in Ile-Ife axis while the influence of Aregbesola will cover Ijeshaland.

Influence of the former Deputy Governor, Mrs Titilayo-Laoye Ponle; Former Minister of Health, Professor Isaac Adewole; former Minister of Police Affairs, Alhaji Jelili Adesiyan will play role of victory for the party.

Oyetola while inaugurating the Osun Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), in Osogbo had charged members across the state to intensify efforts towards ensuring all round victory for the Tinubu and Shettima.

While tasking the members of the party to remain resolute, united and unperturbed, Oyetola expressed delight in the firmness of the party’s structure and commitment of the leadership and members of the APC in the state, saying it is signal to the fact that the party remains the party to beat anytime and any day in Osun.

The defeat suffered by the party during the 2022 governorship election negatively affected many party loyalists. But the judgement of Osun Governorship Election Petition Tribunal which recently voided the election Adeleke has been a morale booster for the APC.

The Labour Party in the state has been weakened by the defection to PDP of the former Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf, who the party fielded during 2022 governorship polls. It will affect the party because he became the rallying point at a point but now he has left.

Meanwhile, the party had gone back to drawing table to restrategise for the best wining plan for Peter Obi in the coming election. They have embarked on street campaigns to youths across the major towns of the state especially communities that host tertiary institutions to canvass for votes.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

OYO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,276,675

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 528,620; PDP: 303,376

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 365,229; PDP: 366,690

In Oyo State, the February 25 presidential election will be a straight fight between APC’s Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku. Analysts are insisting that the fact that PDP is the ruling party will have very little effect on the performance of the presidential candidates.

In the two previous presidential elections in the state, the two parties have won on one occasion each. In 2015, Buhari polled 528, 620 votes to defeat Jonathan of PDP who got 303,376 votes. The APC candidate won in 19 local government areas while his PDP counterpart took 15.

Four years later, Atiku defeated Buhari in the state. He took 18 local government areas while Buhari won in 15. Their total votes reflected a much closer contest with former garnering 366,640 to the latter’s 365,229 votes.

While the APC won the presidential election convincingly in 2015 with a wide margin as a newly-formed opposition party, the party, now in government, narrowly lost the same state to the opposition PDP in 2019. The development, to some observers, underscores the unpredictable nature of Oyo politics. And this also explains why both the ruling APC and the opposition PDP are not leaving any stone unturned in their quest for victory ahead of the presidential election.

Currently, the APC controls the three senatorial seats. In 2019, Senator Abdulfatai Buhari was elected to represent Oyo North. Teslim Folarin represents Oyo Central, while Senator Kola Balogun representing Oyo South, won on the platform of PDP. But he dumped the party and joined APC in 2021 after falling out with Governor Makinde.

The APC also has its members as representatives in nine out of the fourteen federal constituencies, leaving PDP with only five. During the 32 state constituencies’ election held on Saturday March 9, 2019, PDP won 26 seats, APC five seats and the African Democratic Party (ADP), won one seat. The results, again, underline the uncertain nature of Oyo politics. Observers say it is too early to predict how the electorate will vote on February 25the presidential election.

Oyo is a PDP state but Governor Makinde and his camp are not supporting the presidential aspiration of the party’s candidate. He is with Governor Nyesom Wike and other G5 governors in their opposition to Atiku.

But Atiku is not without support in the strategic Southwest state. Reliable party sources revealed that he appears to have most of the PDP leaders in the state on his side. Prominent chieftains, including a former Minister of State for Federal Capital Territory, Jumoke Akinjide and a former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Wole Oyelese, have been campaigning relentlessly for him in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

For the PDP presidential candidate, it is not likely that he will benefit from the incumbency factor as such. With allies and appointees of the state governor unable to openly identify with him and participate in his campaigns, the face-off between Atiku and the G5 governors has definitely taken a toll on the chances of the former Vice President in Oyo State. Unless a miracle happens and Makinde renounces his opposition to him, Atiku will be walking a very tight rope in his quest to win votes in the state on February 25.

While Makinde is yet to heed Wike’ directive to announce who his supporters should vote for, there are insinuations that the governor’s people may be preparing to throw their weight behind the presidential aspiration of Tinubu, the APC candidate in what would be an intriguing political arrangement.

Tongues started wagging when Adebayo Lawal, Deputy Governor of Oyo, recently said Makinde supports Afenifere leaders in their choice of presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. He made the comment at a meeting between the leaders and Tinubu in Akure, capital of Ondo State. Lawal, who represented Makinde at the meeting, said the Oyo governor has always been in support of the decisions taken by Afenifere. “Since he (Makinde) has become a governor, he hasn’t played with issues concerning Yorubaland,” Lawal said.

Should Makinde and his people support Tinubu on or before February 25, they will further strengthen the APC candidate’s base in Oyo State. As we speak, he has numerous bigwigs across the state working for his aspiration. The APC as the biggest opposition party in the state boasts of a very wide network with structures in all the nooks and crannies. The party is fielding candidates in all the 33 state constituencies, fourteen federal constituencies and three senatorial districts of the state.

With all the candidates and their supporters working relentlessly for Tinubu, he is expected to do well across the state. For example, in Oyo zone, he enjoys the support of warhorses like Pa C.A Ajibade; Rt. Hon. Asimiyu Alarape, Hon. Akeem Adeyemi, Dr. Yunus Akintunde, Hon. Bimbo Kolade, Kazeem Kolawole Raji, Hon. Kazeem Tunde Isiaka, Hon. Seyi Adisa and Engr. Idris Adeoye. To analysts, it will not be difficult for APC to win the zone with this array of politicians.

Allies and loyalists of late former Governor Lam Adesina, are also working hard for the Tinubu project just as the entire political structures of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala, are involved in his campaigns. The state chairman of the party, Hon. Ajiboye Omodewu, is leading members of Ajimobi Legacy Forum to support Tinubu. The APC presidential candidate is also enjoying the support of a faction of the Ladoja Political Group and the leadership of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state.

Meanwhile, Folarin assured that the people of Oyo are solidly behind Tinubu’s presidential bid and would vote massively for APC in the 2023 general election. According to him, the 95 percent votes projected for Tinubu by the APC campaign council in Oyo is realisable.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party is popular among some youths in the state, but observers say this may not translate into much votes for him as his presence remains largely on social media. Obi has been in Oyo twice to campaign. He was in the state last November for a rally organized by his supporters at Adamasingba stadium, Ibadan.

While the LP presidential candidate is optimistic that he will do well in the election in Oyo, it remains to be seen how he will pull this off without much political presence or support base in the state less than a month to the presidential election.

The NNPP candidate Kwankwaso is barely felt in the state. Apart from his April 2022 visit to the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Lekan Balogun to discuss his presidential ambition, he is yet to campaign in the state.

Should it also turn out to be true that Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Accord Party gubernatorial candidate in Oyo State, and his allies are working for the presidential aspiration of the APC candidate as being rumoured across the state, then Tinubu’s victory on February 25 will become more assured.

Fondly called Penkelemes, Adelabu joined the Accord after he narrowly lost the governorship ticket of APC to Folarin. But sources within his camp said he is still very committed to the Tinubu presidential project.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU TO WIN

EKITI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 987,647

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 120,331; PDP: 176,466

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 219,231; PDP: 154,032

Likely voting patterns in the Ekiti are gradually unfolding. Out of the 16 parties that fielded candidates for the presidential election, only the ruling APC and the PDP are visibly on ground.

The poll will be a straight fight between APC and PDP, going by the political dynamics, existing realities and happenings in the state. The duo have dominated the political space in the last three months and have the highest number of supporters when compared to the Labour Party, NNPP, Social Democratic Party (SDP) and 11 others whose offices are under lock and key.

Observers are predicting that the outcome of the 2023 election may not be different from the results of the June 18, 2022 governorship election in which the APC candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, won with over 100,000 votes margin.

One thing that will likely work in favour of Tinubu over his main challenger Atiku is the fact that the ex- Lagos governor is from the Southwest. Many voters from the zone see his ambition as their project. Residents, both the Muslim and Christians, hold him in high esteem and are irrevocably committed to his victory.

But, Atiku is said to be popular in Ekiti South due to the aggressive mobilisation drive of Senator Biodun Olujimi who is seeking return to the Senate. So, the ex-Vice President is expected to get votes in the district. But with Tinubu’s cult-like following in the state, PDP may face a herculean task in its attempt to split the votes.

The former Lagos governor will definitely enjoy the support of the state government. The influence of Oyebanji and APC support base could provide a huge advantage for the party’s candidate.

Among politicians, who Tinubu will bank on to deliver the state include Minister of Minister of Trade, and Investment, Niyi Adebayo, ex- governor Kayode Fayemi, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, Barr. Omowumi Ogunlola, Dr Segun Agbalajobi, Senator Tony Adeniyi, former speaker, Adewale Omirin among others. Tinubu’s son in-law, Oyetunde Ojo, is from the state and this could help APC.

However, Atiku could make an inroad through the influence of the PDP leaders in the state, including Olujimi, former Deputy Governors,  Prof. Kolapo Eleka, Dr. Sikiru Lawal,  Senator Duro Faseyi, former acting governor, Tunji Odeyemi, former PDP National Treasurer, Wale Aribisala, Southwest PDP Publicity Secretary, Sanya Atofarati, amongst others.

Interestingly, pundits are of the view that the results of the election will be largely decided by the acceptance level of the Oyebanji-led administration by the people. The governor who is barely three months on the plum seats has wormed himself to the people’s heart following the implementation of masses-centric policies and programnes.

The seemingly intractable crisis in the Ekiti chapter of the opposition PDP has affected its fortunes. And APC is said to be waiting at the flanks to advantage of the internal wrangling.

Since the party lost power in 2018, the opposition has not known peace for a day with the ex-governor Ayodele Fayose and Senator Olujimi at daggers’ drawn.

The internal strife was compounded by the ill-fated 2022 governorship primaries of the party, when notable politicians led by Segun Oni angrily left the party with thousands of his followers to the SDP to contest the election, where he emerged first runner up.

Unarguably, PDP is not in good shape to win the state for Atiku as Fayose is a staunch member of Integrity Group led by the River State Governor Wike. The group are opposed to Atiku’s candidacy.

Since his candidate, Bisi Kolawole lost in the last governorship election, where he came distant third, Fayose has not visited Ekiti to campaign for Atiku, unlike, the build up to the last governorship election, when he aggressively rallied support for PDP.

Although the two factions claim to be working for Atiku, it was gathered that the candidates for the state and National Assembly elections who got the tickets through Fayose’s helps were personally working for themselves.

The picture looks even bleaker with the recent announcement by the PDP national leadership that it had suspended several members of its Ekiti chapter associated with Fayose for anti-party activities. It also dissolved the state executive committee.

The massive defection of SDP members who left the party after the primary that produced PDP governorship candidate Kolawole in 2022 poll is also a disadvantage to Atiku.

But, aggrieved APC members under the aegis of Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju who supported Oni governorship bids had retraced their steps and back to the APC. This were made possible as result of the humble and unifying disposition of Oyebanji in making the party more united for a straightforward victory for Tinubu at the polls.

Watchers of politics in the state opine that Tinubu is likely to win Ekiti based on enumerated factors. But the influence of the PDP cannot be underestimated.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ONDO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,991,344

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 299,889; PDP: 251,368

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 241,769; PDP: 275,901

PDP is yet to put its house in order ahead of the polls even though the party believes it would repeat its 2019 feat, when it defeated the ruling APC in the state at the presidential election. At its recent presidential rally, former Governor Olusegun Mimiko and some party leaders loyal to the G-5 governors and the Integrity Group were absent.

Mimiko and his supporters have been silent on PDP campaign activities in the state. Some leaders are of the opinion that, perhaps, they are waiting on Wike’s directive on whose presidential candidate to support.

Some candidates of the PDP have also expressed their grievances over the lack of funding for campaign activities. They have decided to carry on with their campaign without working for their presidential candidate. Those who spoke on condition of anonymity said the focus of some leaders of the Ondo PDP was the 2024 governorship election and not about next month’s general elections.

Just as in the 2020 governorship election, the Ondo APC is going into next month general elections a united family. All stakeholders are on the same page on winning the polls. It is only in APC that several support groups have sprung up working for the victory of Tinubu.

Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu whose ill-health raised fears among party faithful has assured that he would lead the campaign activities. The leadership has been able to pacify aggrieved aspirants to withdraw cases in courts over the outcome of the primary.

What has caused worry and panic among some members of the party is the refusal of some leaders and support groups to canvass votes for other candidates of the party except for Tinubu. Many of the support groups have been silent on candidates of the party across the state.

Speaking on why he will not support APC candidates from his senatorial district, a former lawmaker who asked his name not to be printed said the primary was skewed in their favour. The former lawmaker said his target was for Tinubu to win the presidency.

The chances of LP in winning the presidential election in Ondo State are very slim. This is because it has only one candiate for both national and state assembly elections. At the party’s rally held at the Akure Town Hall, Obi did not canvass vote for the party’s candidate for Ondo North senatorial district.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

LAGOS STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 7,060,195

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 792,460; PDP: 632,327

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 580,825; PDP: 448,015

Lagos is the base of the APC candidate Tinubu.  The former governor is widely viewed as the architect of modern Lagos. Apart from raising a generation of leaders who have become fanatical loyalists, he has also sealed a bond with stakeholders, including the traditional institution, business class, Christian and Muslim communities, youths and women groups.

However, the main opposition party, the PDP on which platform former Vice President Atiku is running, is also visible in Lagos. Although it has been locked in supremacy battle with the progressive bloc which has held forte in the state, PDP, in the last 23 years, has failed to dislodge the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC from power.

In 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 ģovernorship polls, PDP made frantic attempts, but without success.

The third party, the Labour Party (LP), which former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi has borrowed as a platform, has no footing in Lagos, within the context of structure, party membership, machinery and public sympathy.

But, it is evident, judging by their social media activities, that many Lagos residents of Southeast and South-South origins, are gravitating towards Obi, and not necessarily LP, in some local councils where they are likely to deploy their numerical strength on poll day.

Although the NNPP is not popular in Lagos, its candidate Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State, is a well-known politician in the country. He has supporters in some market areas (Sabo) where few Northerners, who are his main target, ply their legitimate trade.

There is no state or ethnic group that is not represented in Lagos, which has consistently extended accommodation to all, irrespective of race and religion. Apart from indigenous Lagosians, migrant residents have roles to play during the election. Although many Northerners, Southeasterners and South-South people are many in Lagos, they are dwarfed by the number of migrant Yoruba from six Southwest states of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti, who are emotionally attached to Lagos as a core Yoruba territory, and who may be willing and prepared to swing the pendulum of victory towards Tinubu’s direction in the spirit of regional solidarity.

Lagos, like other Southwest states, subscribe to zoning or rotation of the Presidency. It is a key factor in national unity, which has also engendered a sense of participation and fostered a feeling of belonging.

After the Asaba meeting of Southern Governors, the next meeting, which was a follow up, was held in Lagos State. During the meeting, the governors, irrespective of the political leanings, called for zoning. Their agitation reflected the mood in the three Southern geo-political regions of Southwest, Southeast and South-South. The perceived notion of zoning is most likely to shape voting by these Southwest, Southeast and South-South residents in Lagos. The poll outcome may be their utter disapproval or violation of the zoning principle by the PDP.

Without dispute, APC is the largest and most formidable party in the Centre of Excellence. It has its tentacles in the nooks ad crannies of the state; across the five traditional divisions of Lagos, Ikeja, Badagry, Epe and Ikorodu; the three senatorial districts of Lagos Central, Lagos East and Lagos West; the pre-existing 20 local governments and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs). 

As government in power for 24 years, Lagos APC has produced many functionaries who have had political career progression from grassroots to appointees at state and federal levels.

Today, all the members of the State Executive Council, led by Sanwo-Olu, belong to the ruling party. The commissioners, special advisers and assistants, heads of boards and parastatals, reflect the representativeness and inclusive governance in the state. Similarly, all the 40 members of the House of Assembly, led by Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, are APC members. Twenty two of the 24 House of Representatives members belong to APC.

Also, all the 57 council chairmen, vice chairmen, councillors, supervisors and other aides are APC members. These grassroots structures have linkages with the various community development associations, which also serve as channels for political mobilisation.

Despite its past electoral misfortunes, Lagos PDP has not fizzled out. It has remained visible, always firing salvos at the ruling party intermittently, and mustering efforts to pose a challenge at periodic elections.

It is a crisis-ridden chapter that is retarded by weak structures. Prominent progressive politicians who defected to the opposition party have retraced their steps to APC. They complained about lack of virile leadership, cohesion and focus.

Lagos PDP has become more weakened because it is running against the tide at a time a popular Lagosian is contesting for president on the platform of APC.

Never has Lagos PDP been in disarray. Its governorship candidate, Jide Adediran, is being deserted by party elders, who complained that he reneged on the promise to pick their anointed candidate for running mate, Vivour. These party elders have shunned the governorship campaigns.

Also recently, hundreds of those who claimed to be members of the ‘Lagos for Lagos,’ Adediran’s group, defected to the APC.

A young and successful businessman, Adediran is perceived as an inexperienced candidate running on PDP platform with another inexperienced deputy candidate, Funke Akindele, a popular actress.

A great damage has been done to the PDP’s prospect by the balkanisation of its support base in Lagos by Labour Party (LP), which is targeting its strongholds in Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Ojo, Amuwo-Odofin, and parts of Surulere, where Southeast indigenes, parts of Eti-Osa. A category of ‘social media youths’ are now torn between Obi and Tinubu. Also, South-South elements appear to be turning their back at PDP for similar ethnic reason.

It is becoming increasingly hard for Lagos PDP to appeal to Lagosians to vote for its presidential candidate at a time the state, which is Tinubu’s base, is energised and majority of people are rooting for the Asiwaju of Lagos.

The awful picture of party depreciation contrasts sharply with past hopes. While the divided Southeast and  South-South elements, in conjuction with the Oodua Progressives Congress (OPC) and a faction of Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-political group, led by Chief Ayo Adebanjo, teamed up to mobilise for PDP presidential candidates -former President Goodluck and Atiku -in 2015 and 2019, they are not looking at the direction of Atiku in 2023.

Despite the rainbow coalition, Buhari of APC still won in Lagos during the two polls.

In 2015, 5.8 million people registered in Lagos. In 2019, the number of registered voters rose to 6.5 million. In that 2019 poll, total vote cast was 1,156,598. Total number of accredited voters was 1,196,490. Valid votes were 1,089,567 while 67,023 votes were rejected.

Buhari won with a margin of 132,810 votes. According to the poll results, he scored 580,825 votes, winning 15 of 20 councils. Atiku got 448,015 votes, winning five councils, including Ojo and Eti-Osa.

Less than two months to the poll, many PDP candidates are not visible. Unlike the APC which is campaigning across the state, PDP’s campaign is basically restricted to rallies driven by the governorship candidate. Although Atiku came to Lagos for campaign, his old allies who are co-founding fathers of the party shunned the rally in protest over unresolved crisis in the party.

LP is a borrowed platform adopted by Obi, whose understanding of the philosophy underlining its formation is limited. Those who adopted it for contest in the past later abandoned the platform after achieving their aims. In the Fourth Republic, LP will go down in history as a ‘used and dumped party assailed by stunted growth.

The leaders of Lagos LP are not in reckoning. Although a prominent APC member, Goke Salvador, was said to have defected to the chapter, nothing has been heard about him since he failed to secure the governorship ticket.

Lagos LP does not have any council chairman, state and federal lawmaker. The presence of the party at most wards and local governments is nil.

As an emergency platform, Lagos LP only focuses on the presidential poll, scheming to rake votes from migrant settlers from Southeast and South-South, who may have ended their allegiance to the PDP.

The party lacks candidates for many federal and state legislative positions because of the absence of structure.

However, the party is visible due to the activities of fanatical supporters, Obidients, who have also invaded the social media. Their campaigns in Lagos are not properly coordinated. The youths rooting for 62-year-old Obi do not belong to any ward or local government chapter, and only a few of them can properly articulate why they prefer him to other candidates beyond the age factor.

It is possible that on poll day, LP may not have adequate number of agents at the polling booths across the state.

But, the party is targeting votes for Obi in former PDP strongholds-Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, and some parts of Isolo, and Eti-Osa.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ENUGU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,112,793

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 14,157; PDP: 553,003

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 54,423; PDP: 355,553

The three leading presidential candidates are Obi of LP, Tinubu of APC and Atiku PDP.

Enugu’s votes in the past five election circles have been majorly dedicated to PDP, which has enjoyed unrivalled acceptability among the populace. Before now, the presidential contest had always been between two leading political parties.

However, with the emergence of Obi creating a third option, the tide is changing with the PDP now scrambling to retain its usual share of the votes from the state.

Though,  there are about 1.6 million voters with PVCs in the state, voter turnout in the previous elections was below 50 per cent, except for the 2011 presidential election, when the state gave former President Goodluck Jonathan nearly 99 percent votes.

However, with the confidence the people of the state now have reposed in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it is believed that voter turnout will improve considerably in the forthcoming election.

The former Vice President is believed to be a household name among the electorate in Enugu State. However, his albatross is that the people of the state and in deed, the Southeast, who had voted massively for him in the last election, are of the belief that he does not believe in equity, justice and fair play. This, they said, is so because when it was the time for the Southeast to produce the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku and PDP scuttled it.

For this reason, he lacks foot soldiers who would work and ensure his acceptance by the electorate who are very much familiar with his name.

It was observed that those who are working with the former vice president, are doing so secretly because of the seemingly dangerous backlash his open campaign would have on the generality of the PDP candidates in other positions.

According to an inside source in PDP, there is the belief that Atiku is being used to perpetuate the North in power after Buhari leaves office against the rotational North and South convention.

Again, his battle with the G-5 governors, including the governor of Enugu State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, does not help matters.

Our correspondent observed that since the beginning of campaigns last year, no member of the PDP has ever mentioned his name in their numerous campaigns across the state. Worse still, one of the party’s senatorial candidates and former governor, Senator Chimaraoke Nnamani, rather than campaigning for Atiku, has been going about campaigning for the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu.

He was suspended recently by the PDP national leadership for his troubles.

“So, as it stands, the only way Atiku can get votes from Enugu State would be through a bandwagon appeal. You know Enugu is synonymous with PDP and by that way, those who will be voting for PDP candidates in other elections may equally vote for him. And that would be by mistake”, a chieftain of the PDP, who prefered anonymity, told The Nation.

Like Atiku, Tinubu is a household name among voters. He is expected to get between 25 to 30 percent of the votes in the Coal City State.  The reason for this is because of his longtime relationship with the power brokers in the state starting from Gbazuagu Nweke Gbazuagu. All the governors that governed Enugu since 1999, are close allies of the Asiwaju’s and are currently rooting for him to be the next president. The current governor Ugwuanyi, it has been learned, equally enjoys a robust personal relationship that has spanned over the years with him.

Apart from that, the senatorial candidate of the PDP for Enugu East and former governor of the state, Nnamani, has never hidden his position on Tinubu as the presidential candidate whom he and his households will vote for on February 25. Some of his friends, including the son of the former governor of the state, Joseph Onoh, younger brother to Lady Bianca Ojukwu as well as the Speaker of the State House of Assembly.

Also, with APC parading such leaders as the former governor, Mr. Sullivan Chime; former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani, former chairman of the party, Dr. Ben Nwoye and other as Tinubu’s independent campaigners, in addition with a rejuvenated APC in the state led by Chief Ugochukwu Agballah, analysts believe that Tinubu is likely to get the required 25 percent votes in the election because of the Labour Party candidate Obi.

Obi is a well-known name among the entire citizens of the state, because he served as the governor of the neighbouring Anambra State for two terms and was also the vice presidential candidate to Atiku in 2019 election.

He now has cult followership that cuts across the 17 local government areas of the state.

Though, he is not being supported by some of the political class in the state, however, no politician dares campaign against him for fear of hostile reaction. In fact, the fear of the LP presidential candidate is the beginning of wisdom in the state.

With Obi, the presidential election in Enugu is likely to be in mould of that of 2011 where they gave their all to the then President Jonathan. Reasons are that one, they believe this is their turn and Obi is the best they can support.

Two, they are angry with the PDP for denying them the ticket after decades of consistent loyalty to the party.

Three, they are even angrier with the APC for years of alleged marginalisation.

Obi is therefore expected to win comfortably in Enugu while Tinubu will come second.

VERDICT: LABOUR/OBI

IMO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,419,922

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 133,253; PDP: 559,185

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 140,463; PDP: 334,923

The three major political parties – APC, PDP and LP have adopted grassroots mobilisation for their presidential candidates.

Since 2014, control of the state has swung between APC and PDP – from the days when Rochas Okorocha was governor, to the brief reign of Emeka Ihedioha and now the tenure of Hope Uzodinma.

It is, therefore, expected that the presidential election would be another face-off between the two biggest parties which have the most develop structures due to their years of being power.

But this election season, the entrance of Obi and his LP is altering calculations in the Southeast. Whether those scenarios are confirmed come polling day remains in the realm of conjecture. At this point though the expectation is that regional sentiments would attract a lot votes to his cause.

Still, it is not clear whether it would be enough to deliver Imo to him. What is obvious is that he and PDP’s Atiku who ran on the same ticket in 2019, would be split the votes that once came from their common pool. That weakens the former VP’s cause.

APC and its candidate Tinubu are expected to much better than in the last two cycles given the advantages of incumbency.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

ABIA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,120,808

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 13,394; PDP: 368,303

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 85,058; PDP: 219,698

Abia since 1999 till date has been one of the states that has religiously voted for PDP and that explains the huge presence of the party across the 17 local government areas in the state.

It is a known fact that, most politicians in the state as at today, including those who are in the opposition, at one point or the other in their political career were once members of PDP.

Voting patterns in previous elections show that Abia has been for the PDP, especially in presidential and National Assembly elections. This accounts to the reason most federal legislators from the state are PDP members.

It is important to say that the emergence of APC at the 2015 and 2019 general elections with the presence of political heavyweights like Orji Uzor Kalu, Sen. Nkechi Nwaogu and among others, boosted the presence of the party which accounts for the depletion of the usual PDP votes.

Another factor that may affect the chances of PDP is the current feud between chairman Iyorchia Ayu and the G5 governors led by the Rivers State Governor Wike.

While the former governor of the state, Senator Theodore Ahamefule Orji is leading the Atiku Abubakar-Ifeanyi Okowa campaign council in the Southeast, the body language of governor of the state, who is also the leader of the state, has not clearly shown his support for the PDP presidential candidate.

Abia is, however, not immune to the wave and noise the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Obi, is making in the Southeast. This has also created the impression that PDP may not have it rosy in Abia. 

There are three senatorial zones in the state: Abia North, Abia Central and Abia South respectively.

A careful study of the three zones shows that APC may likely get more votes in Abia North considering the impact the APC federal lawmakers; Orji Uzor Kalu (Senate Chief Whip); Bende, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha (House of Reps Deputy Chief Whip); Umunneochi, Benjamin Okezie (House of Reps Spokesman); Bende, including former Minister of Mines; Uche Ogah and among others have made in the lives of the Abia North Senatorial District.

In Abia South, PDP is likely going to give a good account of themselves considering that it is the senatorial zone of the governor where the PDP doesn’thave much opposition. However, Ikpeazu’s preferred presidential choice will definitely determine the voting graph of the people.

In Abia Central, where the immediate past governor of the state, Orji, has under his control, may likely vote for Atiku.

However, if the people are going to vote for individuals against party sentiment/loyalty, Obi may likely have more votes in Abia than the candidates of APC and PDP as many residents believe that not only that power should come to the South, but because they believe that Obi has the intellectual and administrative skills to lead the country out of the doldrums.

VERDICT: LABOUR/OBI

EBONYI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,597,646

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 19,518; PDP: 323,653

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 90,726; PDP: 258,573

Ebonyi State was traditionally being a PDP stronghold till recently.

In past elections the party has overwhelmingly won the presidential election.

However, all that changed in 2019 when Governor David Umahi then with the PDP allegedly made a pact with the ruling APC at the centre.

This led to the APC candidate President Muhammadu Buhari getting over 25 percent of the votes in the state even though the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and his running mate, Peter Obi won the state convincingly.

Today the situation is different as Obi is now the candidate to beat in the state.

This is because he is from the Southeast and the people of the state love him.

Also, the glamour of having a president of Southeast extraction is working in his favour.

Even, members of PDP and APC privately campaign for him and have made it clear that they will support Obi for the presidential election while working fr their respective parties for other positions.

However, the Ebonyi APC was first to kick off campaign last year when Tinubu visited the state with a mammoth crowd attending the event showing that APC backed by Umahi will not be a pushover.

The party also kicked off its campaign and launched what it called door to door campaign but other parties who seem to be waiting for the national leadership of their parties to give them directives on how to go about the campaigns.

The APC is the only party among the three major parties in the state who are going into the election with a united front while the other two, PDP and LP, are embroiled in leadership and post primary crisis.

The party will be rounding off its local government campaign this weekend while the PDP is just stating its own

It also flagged off its door to door campaign which is want to take the message of the party’s manifesto to the rural areas

Meanwhile, the presidential candidates of PDP and LP, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi only visited Ebonyi in the last two weeks to kick start the campaign in the state

Also, the PDP is highly divided after the acrimonious primaries it had where two factions held parallel primaries.

Several courts cases have been going on arising from the primaries. At a point, INEC delisted the governorship candidate’s name and that of all the National Assembly candidates except one.

Their names were only restored last week after another court other and this many supporters fear has made it difficult for the party to properly strategise ahead of the elections.

“The party may not do well in the election due to the court cases and late starting of campaigns”, a highly places source said.

The source also expressed dismay that the presidential candidate has not done anything to resolve the crisis which has led to the balkanisation of the party in the state.

However, Mr Ali Odefa, Southeast National Vice Chairman of the party who is from the state disagrees.

The Labour Party is riding on the organic popularity of its presidential candidate in the state.

Infighting in the party has also affected its ability to stage a proper campaign. The party does not seem to be planning a local government campaign like the two other parties

Two persons are in court contesting governorship ticket, but some of its popular National Assembly are campaigning for Obi. The party is depending on the growing Obidient movement to win the state for Obi.

Nevertheless, the teeming supporters are said to be actively campaigning for him at the grassroots.

VERDICT: OBI TO WIN

RIVERS STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,537,862

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 1,487,075; APC: 69,238

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 473,971; APC: 150,710

The oil-rich Rivers State has 23 local government areas, 319 electoral wards and 4,442 polling units. With 3,532,990 voters, Rivers has the highest number of registered voters in the South-South.

On the 25th of February, the presidential candidates APC, Tinubu; PDP, Atiku and LP, Obi, will scramble to win the state.

Rivers has always been the stronghold of the PDP and since 1999 no presidential candidate of the party had lost any election in the state. In the last two presidential elections, the PDP won the state by wide margin. In 2015, out of the 1,565, 461 vote cast, APC got 69,238 representing 4.42 per cent votes while the PDP scored 1,487,075 representing 94.99 per cent votes.

In 2019, the APC tried to increase its momentum in the state and out of the 666,585 votes, the APC secured 150,710 (22.61%) while the PDP, whose candidate scored 473,971 votes (71.10%).

But such dominance has become a mirage ahead of this year’s presidential election following the worsening feud between the state PDP and its parent party at the national level. While the local party is strong and determined to win all state electoral offices, it had since declared that it would not work for Atiku.

State governor, Nyesom Wike, a political tactician and one-man riot squad, has insulated the Rivers PDP from the parent party and vowed to deliver another presidential candidate on February 25th instead of Atiku.

Wike, who leads the G-5, a group of five PDP governors seeking equity, justice and fairness, has all structures of the local party in his pocket and has been able to convince them to work for his preferred presidential candidate.

Obviously in Rivers, without Wike, Atiku seems to be going nowhere and the PDP may not stand a chance to win the February 25th presidential election in Rivers,

It has become an open secret that Wike has settled for the APC presidential candidate and communicated his decision to all PDP structures in Rivers. Recently, the Rivers chapter of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, confirmed that the governor directed all his aides and all party leaders loyal to him to work for Tinubu.

Wike’s continual highlight of the injustices in the National PDP had compelled many residents to see Atiku as the enemy of Rivers. Sometimes angry Rivers youths are seen removing Atiku-Okowa campaign posters in their domains.

Some PDP leaders, who revolted against Wike such as Sir Celestine Omehia, Austine Okpara, Lee Maeba, Abiye Sekibo, Prince Uche Secondus and Chinyere Igwe, are finding it difficult to campaign for Atiku in the state. Most of them have since relocated from Rivers out of fear of the unknown. Besides, there is general consciousness in Rivers that power must shift to the South.

Though the Rivers APC is polarised between pro-Rotimi Amaechi and anti-Amaechi camps, all of them seem to be on the same page for Tinubu because of the decentralised campaign system adopted by the presidential candidate.

While the state party controlled by Amaechi leads the APC Presidential Campaign Council, the anti-Amaechi camp led by his former Chief of Staff, Tony Okocha, heads the Independent Campaign Council (ICC).

Though Senator Magnus Abe, a former leader of anti-Amaechi camp in Rivers APC defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and became the party’s governorship candidate, he had since adopted Tinubu as his presidential candidate. Abe in all his rallies has been mobilising support for Tinubu.

In fact, the APC presidential candidate will be the direct beneficiary of the crisis in the PDP. With Wike working for him and almost all the structures of the APC closing their ranks to campaign for him, Tinubu is heading for victory in Rivers.

For the Labour Party, it has remained a new entrant in the presidential race. In Rivers, no prominent and influential politician has identified publicly with the party. It still lacks enough structures in units, wards and local government areas required to cause serious upset for the two big parties in February presidential poll. It resonates more among the traders of Igbo extraction, who dominate the Rivers city centre.

A popular Nollywood actress, Hilda Dokubo, though not a politician, is one of the leaders of LP and she mobilises for Peter Obi in the state. The Chairperson of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Rivers State chapter, Beatrice Itubo, doubles as the governorship candidate of LP in the state. She has vowed to sway Rivers votes to Obi. But such assurances are believed not to be enough without corresponding vigorous campaigns to reach voters in grassroots.

VERDICT: TINUBU/APC

BAYELSA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,250,102

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 5,194; PDP: 361,209

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 118,821; PDP: 197,933

Since 1999, Bayelsa State has been the stronghold of the PDP. No presidential candidate of the party has lost election in the state of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Prior to the formation of APC, PDP occupied almost all elective positions in the state. It was taken for granted then that whoever emerged its flagbearer would win the election. Therefore, PDP had a formidable structure in Bayelsa before the birth of APC in 2014.

The APC tested its formative strength for the first time in Bayelsa during the 2015 general election. Signs ahead of that election indicated that the party would not perform well at the poll. Leaders, who embraced the broom party and campaigned for the APC Presidential Candidate, Buhari, were viewed as traitors. It became worse because Jonathan, the son of the soil, was standing for a reelection.

Some notable APC candidates for legislative positions did not campaign for Buhari for fear of attracting the wrath of their people. They adopted a different campaign strategy. They begged their people to vote for them but to support the reelection bid of Jonathan. The tribal sentiment was so strong that it reflected in the outcome of the 2019 poll.

After the election, APC and Buhari failed in the state. The party’s presidential candidate got 5,194 votes out of the 367,067 votes cast – representing only 1.42 per cent of the votes. But PDP and Jonathan coasted home to victory polling 361, 209 votes representing 98.4 per cent of the total vote cast.

But in 2019, Jonathan was no longer on the ballot. The APC had gained momentum and many politicians flocked into the party. Some PDP leaders following the loss of their kinsman, Jonathan, and the way he was treated by the PDP, defected to APC to begin their political journey afresh. The scenario changed. The ruling party at the center had built structures in all nooks and crannies of the state and hoisted its flags in the middle of all known rivers and creeks. 

The state leader of the party and former Governor Timipre Sylva, galvanised a winning formula alongside other leaders such as the Prince of Odi Kingdom, Preye Aganaba, to give PDP a run for its money. Though, Buhari did not win the state, he had an impressive performance scoring 118,821 (35.38%) of 335,856 total vote cast. PDP, whose candidate was Atiku, still won the state with 197,933 (58.93%) votes.

In 2019-2020 governorship election, the Bayelsa APC became a mass movement. It was the rave of that moment as many appointees of the PDP, who served in the then administration of Governor Seriake Dickson resigned enmasse and defected to it. The party’s governorship candidate, Chief David Lyon, became a household name. APC grew in strength and dominated the political landscape.

The party for the first time defeated the PDP at the poll – winning six out of the eight local government areas of the state to produce the governor-elect. But the victory was short-lived as the Supreme Court in a controversial judgement removed the party from the ballot following a disqualification suit against Lyon’s running mate, Senator Biobarakuma Degi. The PDP Candidate, Senator Douye Diri, was inaugurated the governor

The reversal of fortunes created crisis in the APC and led to the emergence of factions, who challenged the leadership of Sylva. A former Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri, and his supporters opposed Sylva’s leadership and factionalised the party. Aganaba led another group that disagreed in principles with the style of Sylva, who later became the Minister of State for Petroleum. Sylva and David Lyon fell apart following allegations and counter allegations of his role in the judgement that ousted Lyon a day to his inauguration. Others stayed away and chose to operate outside the leadership of Sylva.

But the presidential campaign strategies adopted by the APC have harnessed the disagreements and controversies to the advantage of the party’s presidential candidate. The decentralized campaign system initiated by the party encouraging the establishment of independent structures has brought all dissenting groups on the same page for one project – soliciting votes for the party’s presidential candidate.

Sylva leads the APC Presidential Campaign Council in the state. Under his leadership are prominent politicians in the state including incumbent elective and non-elective office holders. The incumbent member of the House of Representatives for Southern Ijaw, Preye Oseke and his counterpart for Nembe-Brass Federal Constituency, Isreal Sunny-Goli, aka Adi are all involved in the presidential campaign. Senator Degi, who represents Bayelsa East, former Deputy Governor, Werinipre Seibarugu and other notable politicians from the state like Lyon are campaigning for the APC presidential candidate.

Sylva’s campaign structure also has a popular party stalwart, Chief Tiwei Oruminighe, known in Southern Ijaw as a mobiliser. Oruminighe, the pioneer Chairman of APC in the state, is the party’s Bayelsa Central Senatorial Candidate.

Aganaba, a former governorship aspirant is leading the Independent Campaign Council for Tinubu-Shettima. He has already deployed other coordinators in all the eight local government areas in Bayelsa to begin house-to-house, creek-to-creek and hamlet-to-hamlet campaigns for Tinubu-Shettima. With a massive campaign office sited at a strategic location in Yenagoa, Aganaba and his group of ICC are spreading the gospel of the APC candidate.

Besides Sylva and Aganaba, another staunch member of the APC, Chief Ebitimi Amgbare, a former governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress is leading all the support groups of Tinubu-Shettima in Bayelsa.

In fact, the Bayelsa APC presidential campaign is boosted by the activities of a prominent ex-militant leader, Pastor Reuben Wilson. Wilson, the founder of the Initiative for Good Leadership and Accountability (IGLA) has been creating awareness for the APC candidate mobilising youths for Tinubu-Shettima ticket. Wilson had gone beyond Bayelsa to set up campaign structures in all the South-South states to mobilise support for the APC.  Wilson was later named the South-South Director of the Asiwaju Group.

Therefore, the multifaceted, flexible and all-inclusive campaign method that has given all party leaders a sense of belonging including persons not happy with the Sylva’s leadership of the party is expected to yield huge dividends to the APC at the poll.

Undoubtedly, the PDP has dominated the state for a long time, producing all the administrators in the state. It has entrenched party structures in the state.  The state governor, Senator Douye Diri; his predecessor, Senator Seriake Dickson, who is contesting to retain his seat at the Senate and a former Managing Director, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Ndutimi Alaibe, are all in the campaign train of Atiku.

But Diri seems distracted by subdued internal crisis rocking the state PDP. Despite public denials, the governor and his predecessor, Dickson, one of the finest political thinkers and strategists, are having a running internal battle over some irreconcilable issues. Dickson’s preferred candidates for National and House of Assembly elections denied tickets by Diri during the PDP primaries are all in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to contest the poll.

In fact, PDP in Bayelsa is further facing a moral burden of selling Atiku to the people of the state after eight years of Hausa-Fulani rulership of the country.  Many a people still believe in the Asaba Accord, where all governors including Diri signed an agreement that the next president must come from the South.

By all indications both the PDP and the APC are squared off in a tough presidential contest especially as the APC has gained some ground ahead of the election. They are, however, challenged by the Labour Party and its candidate Obi.

The Labour Party and Obidient Movement has no doubt gained some acceptance in Bayelsa. It is coordinated by a known environmental activist, Alagoa Morris. Obi has some support especially among the youths and the Igbos living and doing business in Yenagoa. The LP candidate, however, lacks the political structures in the creeks and hinterland required to mobilise votes in Bayelsa.

VERDICT: PDP

ANAMBRA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,656,437

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 17,926; PDP: 660,762

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 33,298; PDP: 524,738

Anambra State has been governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) since 2006. But the state was before now a PDP stronghold.

Today, the noise by Labour Party (LP), seems to be taking the shine out of APGA because of the involvement of the former governor of the state, Mr Peter Obi, in the presidential race. 

Though APGA has a presidential candidate in the person of Prof. Peter Umeadi from the same local government area with Obi (Anaocha), his presence in the race is seen as mere mockery by political analysts.

The leading parties in the contest in Anambra are LP, PDP and APC.

However, Obi holds the ace against the others, based on the fact that he is from the state, governed the state and majority of the people see him as representing Igbos in the presidential race.

For the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the crowd that welcomed him penultimate week at the Dr Alex Ekwueme square in Awka tells the story of how popular he is.

It was an awesome crowd that dwarfed those of LP and PDP in the state. But you don’t measure political victory with rally crowds.

Besides, APC parades notable names in its fold, but the in-house crisis over leadership, has not allowed the party to grow.

Few persons believe they own the party, therefore, others must queue behind and wait for their turns for leadership.

Also, the PDP candidateAtiku’s footsoldiers are working non-stop to make sure they regain the lost glory in Anambra.

From all indications, state governor, Prof Chukwuma Soludo, is not in support of APGA presidential candidate, knowing full well he is not serious.

Though, he has not openly declared support for either Atiku or Tinubu, but one thing is obvious, Obi is out of the equation for the governor.

Soludo does not see Obi as a force in the presidential race, rather, he sees him as a jester, whose supporters attack anyone that says the truth concerning the February 25 election.

Anambra may not be that fertile for Obi the way things are unfolding, because opposition against him in his state is enormous too. But the sympathy the electorate have for him is equally huge.

Political observers believe that Obi stand a good chance of winning a majority of votes in the state because of his followership.

If the crowd that attended the APC rally in Awka is anything to go by, the possibility of the party getting 20-25 percent in the presidential election may not be ruled out.

For the PDP, it will also be difficult because many candidates contesting for different positions in the party have vowed to vote for Obi.

VERDICT: OBI