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Category: Insight

  • State Police: Pipe dream or panacea?

    State Police: Pipe dream or panacea?

    After decades of clamouring for restructuring of the polity and devolution of power, the Federal Government and 36 governors have now agreed to establish state police to better enforce law and order, protect life and property and tackle insecurity across the states of the federation. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the elements of state/community policing, the constitutional hurdles, other constraints, and prospects of the innovative move.

    Nigeria may be charting a new path towards ‘true’ federalism. On Thursday, the country tried to embrace the reality and cumulative consequences of over centralisation of power in a highly heterogeneous unitary nation-state masquerading as a federation. Following the meeting of President Bola Tinubu with 36 governors and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike in Aso Villa, Abuja, Nigeria opted for state police instead of the current outdated, ineffective and centralised policing structure that has failed to tackle mounting security challenges.

    The recourse to state police followed strident agitations for restructuring of the polity by various stakeholders, including scholars, labour, professional groups like the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), pan-ethnic groups-Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Ibibio Union, Ijaw Congress, PANDEF, some leaders of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF); elder statesmen, ‘retired’ Generals,  prominent ruling and opposition chieftains and youth groups.

    Indeed, in its report, the Panel on Restructuring set up by the All Progressives Congress (APC) and chaired by former Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nosiru El-Rufai recommended the devolution of power and decentralisation of police.

    RATIONALE FOR STATE POLICE:

    What has motivated the Federal Government’s decision to adopt a paradigm shift and revolutionise policing is that in the last 10 years, Nigeria has not been at peace. It has continued to battle, without much success, with terrorism, banditry, farmer-herder clashes, kidnapping for ransom, killings and other forms of violence.

    Thousands of people have lost their lives; property worth billions have been destroyed, law and order have broken down, and there have been disruption of socio-economic activities. Life is becoming harsh, short and brutish. Many Nigerians live daily in fear. There is no end in sight to the hullabaloo.

    As Nigerians groan under the yoke of terror, commentators pointed out repeatedly that the police, as currently structured, can neither enforce law and order nor prevent crime because policemen, despite their knowledge, lack a basic understanding of the environment and the people they are meant to serve in diverse communities.

    Details of the proposed decentralised police structure are sketchy; whether it would be along multi-level policing-state, regional, zonal or sub-zonal, state/state level, local government or community policing under the supervision of sub-national authorities.

    Instructively, before the dream of a state police can be actualised, there may be a need to also amend the constitution. Currently, policing is on Exclusive List, which is the jurisdiction of the Federal Government.

    Sections 214 to 216 of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria provides for the Nigeria Police Force. According to Section 214 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), “there shall be a Police Force for Nigeria, which shall be known as the Nigeria Police Force, and subject to the provisions of this section, no other police force shall be established for the Federation or any part thereof.”

    However, the proposed state police, in whatever form it may come, portends three implications. More police formations with the right and adequate equipment are expected to spring up, with more policemen recruited to address the deficit or manpower gap. Also, policing would now be adapted to local needs and peculiarities. Most importantly, the state police has to be adequately funded.

    HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES:

    These two imperatives were considered at the onset of modern policing in colonial Nigeria. A police researcher, Oyesoji Aremu, a professor of Counselling Psychology, recalled that at the beginning, there waa no unified police.

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    The 30-man Consular Guard approved for the Lagos Colony by the British Government in 1861 was the foundation of the Nigeria Police Force. It had its origin in Lagos, the former federal capital. Known as Hausa Guard or Constabulary, its main duty as a military outfit, apart from maintenance of law and order, was strictly regime protection. The jurisdiction of that Lagos Police Force covered the whole of Yorubaland on the Southwest.

    Aremu, who teaches at the University of Ibadan, noted that while the police formation was taking a firm root in mainly Yoruba-speaking areas, the Niger Coast Constabulary was created for the Oil Rivers Protectorate comprising Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibon, Rivers and Cross River areas. However, it was later merged with the Lagos Police Force to form the Nigeria Police Force in 1906.

    In the North, the Royal Niger Company established the Royal Niger Constabulary in 1888, which later split into the Northern Nigeria Police Force and the Northern Nigeria Regiment in 1900. “From this period to March 31, 1930, Nigeria as a country had two separate police forces, even after the historical amalgamation of Southern and Northern Nigeria in 1914. It was on April 1, 1930 that a full fledged and unified Nigeria Police Force headed by an Inspector-General of Police was established and headquartered in Lagos, the then Federal Capital Territory,” Aremu recalled.

    In the First Republic, Nigeria, made up of three, and later, four regions, practised federalism. The constitution devolved substantial government powers to the regional governments of the North, East and West. Police forces were regionalised before they were later nationalised, following the military intervention in politics.

    Between 1960 and 1966, while the Federal Government managed the Nigeria Police Force at the centre, the regional governments controlled regional police forces.

    ABUSE OF REGIONAL POLICE:

    However, cases of abuse were rampant as the police became tools of political oppression by the ruling elite against the opposition.

    As Ismail Jibril, a lawyer, reflected, “the local Police of this time was accused of several misconducts and became instrument of oppression by the regional government, particularly against the political opponent and in 1966, when the military government emerged, the local police was disband and fully integrated into the Nigeria Police Force, which has since remain a sole entity responsible for policing in Nigeria.”

    Two researchers on ‘Police-Community Violence in Nigeria,’ Etannibi Alemika and Innocent Chukwuma, provided an awful picture of deployment of police for political brutality against political foes. They submitted that The First Republic (October 1960-January 1966) and Second Republic (1979-1983) were characterised by political intolerance among politicians and political manipulation of the police, adding that in their bid to gain or maintain political power, the politicians employed the police to unleash violence on their opponents.

    It is an understatement. According to the researchers, the government of Western Nigeria during the First Republic (1960-1966) embarked on mass recruitment into local authority forces of thugs and party stalwarts against whom the police should give protection to the ordinary people. These people, it was alleged, carried out their paid duty of thuggery in local government police uniforms, under the full weight of governmental support.

    Also, in the Northern Region during tge same period, “political opponents were arrested by native authority police, handcuffed or chained and marched through the streets.” because they engaged in opposition politics.

    Another scholar, Kemi Rotimi, in an extensive review of the behaviour, deeds and political manipulation of police forces in Western Nigeria, offered broader explanations for politically induced police violence in the country.

    She said: “A major instrument for harassing political opponents in the years before 1966 was the NA/LG (Native Authority/Local Government) Police. Politicians in power were inclined to use police, first, because of the socialisation processes that the successor-elite had undergone under colonial rule. The colonial state was an authoritarian one, largely intolerant of opposition. “Second, it was necessary for mediating the intra-elite struggle for political power and economic privilege by the political class.

    “Third, it was necessary for the protection of ethnic power bases of the ruling elite from intrusion by other ethnically based political parties.

    “Fourth, it was used to show off power to the supporters of the opposition parties.

    “Fifth, it was useful to guarantee for the bodyguards or thugs of the power holders, immunity from the long arm of justice whenever they committed illegal acts.

    “Sixth, it was ultimately vital for the perpetuation of the governing elite in power.”

    Rotimi pointed out that the sympathy of the individual policemen for the ideals of the party in power or for individuals in the party hierarchy to whom they might be related by blood or other personal ties was a feature of regional police structure. Reward by the political elite for the regional policemen assigned the duty of oppressing and bullying political opponents came in the form of financial inducement and ultimate career  advancement through subjective promotions.

    “These observations call for caution by the advocates of state police forces because the

    orientation of the politicians is still largely antithetical to democratic values,” said Alemika. Rotimi’s

    Also, if state police is to be created, Rotimi’s observations imply  that the country would require a framework for the accountability of the police to the civil society more than to individuals holding executive power.

    NATIONALISATION OF POLICE:

    Under the prolonged military rule, the development of police was also stifled. Although more state police commands were established, following state creation, military leaders focussed more on the military wing of the Armed Forces than their para-military rivals. That attitude was carried over to the Fourth Republic.

    Many observers contend that the police, as it currently exists, is not the pride of the nation. It conveys an image of an overworked agency, demoralised and structurally denied of the motivation to work. It is deprived of adequate funding and lacking the required numerical strength to police a country of estimated 200 million people. It is always in want of critical tools to work,  and suffering the agony of poor remuneration. Many policemen are not proud of their calling. Their presence, unlike before, does not evoke respect in the community.

    At the state level, governors are decorative chief security officers. While governors have been providing guns, patrol vehicles and other tools for the police, policemen are only accountable to the power-loaded Federal Government. Governors can issue directives to police commissioners in their states, but the commissioners have to take clearance from the distant Inspector-General of Police in Abuja before compliance.

    According to Afenifere, the Federal Government’s Police Force, as it currently exists, pales into a post-colonial outfit that is ready to protect life and property, but oblivious of the environmental requirements of policing.

    It is characterised by mass recruitment of able bodied young men and women of diverse tribes who will be posted to states where they may be handicapped by language barriers and knowledge of geography and sociology of the people and localities they are expected to police.

    In the past, Chief Bisi Akande, former governor of Osun State and pioneer APC Interim National Chairman, submitted that in a federal nation-state, there can be no uniformity of community policing across 36 states. He said the local policing structure should be dictated by peculiarities, identities, needs, and specific circumstances that distinguish the diverse regions, states and local governments.

    Community policing should imply that the local environment is the focal point. Hence, this factor should reflect in recruitment, composition and control. Its envisaged success is hinged on the emotional attachment of community policemen to the community, which they know perfectly, thereby making intelligence gathering much easier.

    Akande queried:”What is the essence of posting a Kanuri as policeman to police Ijebu or Egba in Ogun State? How can a policeman of Enugu origin perform excellently while on police duty in Nupe, Tiv and Hausa/ Fulani states?

    “Will language not be a barrier? Does he know the geography, sociology and custom of his place of assignment? Is devolution of police not the solution? Is state or community not the answer?”

    In the view of the elder statesman, “unless these lines of reforms and restructuring are pursued, the Police may  not live up to expectation in the maintenance of law and order.”

    DEVOLUTION AND COMMUNITY POLICING:

    According to Jibril, “the size and structure of the police force of any nation is determined by its security situation. He said big federal countries opted for state and community policing because of their peculiar security challenges, huge population and dictates of diversity.

    Generally, a key element of state police, in an atmosphere of multi-level policing, is community or grassroots policing. Aremu stated that “this police innovation is based on the philosophical foundation of communication thought.”

    Since it is decentralised, there is an increase in police and community interactions, a concentration on quality of life issues, a concentration on neighbourhood patrols and problem-solving.

    The implication of community or neighbourhood policing is that the police and the local public are involved. Its effectiveness,  according to Aremu, is premised on increased police and community cooperation and partnership aimed at improving the quality of life at the neighbourhood level. 

    “It emphasises a working partnership between police officers and citizens in creative ways to solve community problems relating to crime, fear of crime and neighbourhood disorders,” he added.

    However, community policing imposes new responsibilities on both the police and the community. It is a collective enterprise hinged on mutual confidence whereby the community assists the police with vital and authentic security information and the policemen act on the information while determining, identifying and solving local problems.

    Aremu pointed out that in countries where community policing is practised,,”there are consistent positive views of the police by the public, high level of job satisfaction on the part of police personnel and positive impact of community policing on police officers.

    He added:”Embracing community policing would not only reduce friction between the police and the public, it would also make the public hold the police in high esteem.”

    However, to ensure effective community policing, the education of the police is important because it would make policemen more receptive to ideas. Reliance on traditional methods of policing may be grossly inadequate.

    Aremu stressed: “The understanding is that proper education of the officer is not only germane to the success of community policing, the officers/recruits must receive conventional police training. This  undoubtedly is lacking in the Nigeria Police where police recruits are trained in the police colleges, using obsolete methods in the 21st century.

    “In a situation where police recruits are not exposed to training on proactive policing, community policing and problem-solving policing, such an officer is not expected to be a responsible cop in the 21st century where policing is nor all about crime fighting, but influencing the community towards services in society in which he or she also has a stake.”

    MERITS AND CONSTRAINTS:

    Fundamentally, state police may be the first critical step towards the redress of lopsided federal principle. Jibril, who agreed with this view, stated that conformity with federalism is important, as it presupposes that federating units are structurally and operationally independent.

    Apart from the advantage of restoration of true federalism, in this respect, the researcher listed other four advantages- a guarantee of more employment opportunities for youths who may enlist in the police, availability of more policemen to combat crime and tackle insecurity, deployment of more policemen for electoral duty of policing the ballot box, and a platform for the effective and judicious use of security votes by governors.

    Jibril, who also listed some constraints, said the constitution is an impediment, unless it is amended; abuse of police by governors and other state functionaries may persist, unless there are safeguards; the fear of separatist agenda may grow and conflict of interest between the federal and state police may develop.

  • Fuel subsidy windfall  

    Fuel subsidy windfall  

    • States finances under scrutiny

    From May 29, 2023 to date state governments have been smiling to the bank literally with larger purses of money as a result of the decision of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to end fuel subsidy and allow the Naira to independently find its true value among currencies around the world. Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA reports on the windfall the state governments are currently enjoying and the cash is being deployed.

    Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, state governments have experienced a significant increase in revenue, attributed largely to the removal of fuel subsidy. However, this windfall has been marred by allegations of mismanagement and lack of accountability by several state administrations.

    Data from the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) reveals a stark contrast in revenue allocations to states before and after the subsidy removal. For instance, Abia saw an increase from N4.573 billion to N6.409 billion, while Lagos experienced a rise from N12.392 billion to N14.970 billion.

    Despite these substantial increments, concerns have been raised regarding the utilization of these funds. Many states have been accused of diverting their allocations, converting them to dollars, and trading them while the naira depreciates. This alleged practice has led to a public outcry, questioning the transparency of state governments.

    The data underscores the need for greater accountability and oversight in the management of public funds at the state level. While the removal of fuel subsidy has provided a financial boost, it is imperative that these resources are utilized for the benefit of the populace and towards sustainable development initiatives.

    In response to these concerns, the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) has emphasized its commitment to transparency and accountability in government financial transactions. Mr. Bawa Mokwa, Director Press at the OAGF, affirmed that the office has consistently published details of monthly revenue allocations to the three tiers of government for 2023. He further stated that the OAGF is up to date in the publication of monthly revenue distribution and that this effort will be sustained.

    According to Mokwa, the revenue distribution for 2023 was published monthly in print and online media as well as on the OAGF’s website. He also noted that the details of the December 2023 revenue, shared in January 2024, have already been published on the website.

    While the OAGF’s commitment to transparency is commendable, the ongoing allegations of mismanagement underscore the need for continued vigilance and oversight in the management of public funds. Citizens remain vigilant, demanding accountability from their elected officials and advocating for prudent financial management practices.

    While efforts to enhance transparency are underway, it is imperative that state governments uphold the ideals of fiscal responsibility and ensure that the newfound revenue is utilized judiciously for the betterment of the nation and the welfare of its citizens.

    The data provided by Statisence highlights the substantial amounts received by states and their local government areas (LGAs) from the 2023 Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). The figures reveal significant disparities in revenue allocation across different regions of Nigeria.

    Delta emerged as the top recipient with N483.57 billion, followed closely by Rivers with N426.84 billion and Akwa Ibom with N380.1 billion. Lagos, despite being a major economic hub, received N371.39 billion, while Bayelsa, another oil-rich state, obtained N268.34 billion.

    The data underscores the importance of holding governors and local government chairmen accountable for the utilization of these substantial funds. While attention is often focused on Abuja, the capital city, it is equally crucial to demand transparency and explanations from state and local leaders regarding the management of allocated resources.

    Foreign Inflows

    The World Bank through the Nigeria COVID-19 Action Recovery and Economic Stimulus (NG-CARES) programme adds another dimension to the narrative of state government finances.

    Firstly, it underscores the significant external financial support that state governments have received beyond their regular revenue allocations. The reimbursement of $420.48 million (equivalent to N210 billion) demonstrates the international community’s recognition of the need to support Nigeria’s recovery efforts from the COVID-19 pandemic and other economic challenges.

    Secondly, the NG-CARES programme is a state-led design, focusing on social transfer and livelihood, agriculture, and support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), it highlights the importance of targeted interventions to address broader economic challenges beyond the immediate impact of the pandemic.

    Furthermore, the emphasis on transparency and accountability, including independent verification exercises and peer learning across states, aligns with the public’s demand for accountability in the management of public funds. The involvement of civil society organizations, NGOs, and oversight committees adds layers of scrutiny to ensure that funds are used effectively and efficiently.

    The extension of the programme’s closing date by 12 months to June 30th, 2024, provides states with additional time to achieve their goals and maximize the programme’s benefits, indicating flexibility and adaptability in response to varying state capacities and circumstances.

    Overall, the NG-CARES programme complements the increased revenue allocations resulting from the removal of fuel subsidies, providing additional resources for states to address economic challenges and support recovery efforts, while also emphasizing the importance of transparency, accountability, and peer learning in the effective utilization of these funds.

    The introduction of the State Action on Business Enabling Reforms (SABER) programme by the Federal Government in partnership with the World Bank is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing Nigeria’s business environment at the state level.

    For the states, this programme presents an opportunity to further improve their regulatory frameworks and administrative processes to attract investment, stimulate economic growth, and create jobs. By incentivizing and strengthening the implementation of business enabling reforms, such as land administration, regulatory frameworks for private investment, public-private partnerships, tax administration, and overall business regulatory environment, the SABER programme seeks to foster a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.

    The allocation of $750 million to the SABER programme demonstrates a substantial investment in supporting state-level economic development. If approved by the National Assembly as part of an External Borrowing Plan, this funding will provide states with the resources needed to implement reforms and initiatives aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting investments.

    The continuation of successful initiatives like the States Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) Programme further emphasizes the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms and sustainable economic development. Acknowledging the achievements of the SFTAS programme, particularly in areas such as fiscal transparency, revenue mobilization, efficiency of public expenditures, and debt sustainability, underscores the importance of building on past successes and sustaining momentum in reform efforts.

    Overall, the launch of the SABER programme signals a collaborative effort between the Federal Government, state governments, and the World Bank to create a conducive business environment, diversify the revenue base, and promote economic growth and stability at the state level in Nigeria. It represents a proactive approach to addressing challenges and leveraging opportunities for sustainable development and prosperity across the country.

    Profligate State Governments

    The revelation that the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the 36 state governments collectively owe the Federal Government a staggering amount of N1,718,705,566,436.25 in outstanding liabilities for budget support loans sheds light on the profligate nature of some state governments and their failure to utilize financial support effectively in the interest of the general public.

    Despite the budget support extended by the central government to assist states in their fiscal operations, the accumulation of such substantial liabilities indicates a pattern of poor financial management and lack of accountability among state governments. The discontinuation of the budget support loan programme, effective July 2023, was a direct response to the unsustainable level of outstanding debts accrued by various states.

    This decision underscores the need for fiscal prudence and responsible financial management practices among state governments. The federal government’s commitment to allocating funds from the Federation Account to settle these outstanding liabilities demonstrates a proactive approach to addressing the issue and promoting sustainable fiscal management at the state level.

    The discontinuation of the budget support loan program will undoubtedly impact the financial operations of state governments, as they will no longer have access to additional funding through this channel. However, it is a necessary step to address the issue of outstanding debts and promote accountability in the utilization of public funds.

    Furthermore, the federal government’s emphasis on providing support to state governments through alternative means, such as technical assistance and capacity-building programs, highlights the importance of enhancing financial management capabilities and promoting effective resource utilization for development purposes.

    Solutions

    State governments have a unique opportunity to prioritize public needs and maximize efficiency with the increased revenue from FAAC allocations. Here are some concrete steps they can take to put the revenue they’re currently benefiting from to good use: They have to engage citizens to understand their most pressing needs, especially in healthcare, education, infrastructure, and security; Allocate funds based on the identified needs, ensuring a fair distribution across different regions and demographics and Make detailed budget breakdowns publicly available, outlining specific projects and expected outcomes.

    In order to maximize efficiency, the state governments must strengthen procurement processes by implementing clear and transparent procurement policies to prevent corruption and ensure value for money. They also have to utilize technology to automate processes, improve data management, and enhance transparency and they must collaborate with private businesses and civil society organizations to leverage their expertise and resources for efficient project implementation.

    In the area of transparency, the state governments have to publish regular financial reports and share detailed financial statements on a regular basis; make this accessible to the public in both online and offline formats; create independent committees with public representatives to monitor budget execution and project implementation and organize public forums and town halls to discuss budget plans and answer citizen questions.

    Other strategies include investing in sustainable projects that generate lasting benefits for future generations, decentralize decision-making and allocate resources directly to local governments and communities, and evaluate the impact of spending and adjust strategies based on outcomes and public feedback.

    It’s understandable that public concern exists over whether increased state allocations are translating into improvements in vital sectors like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Based on the figures available, residents in the states have to demand for accountability and transparency. They have to actively engage in budget discussions, attend public hearings, and demand clear communication from state governments on how funds are being used.

    They have to track how funds are allocated and used for specific projects, and report any irregularities or misuse of resources and there should be increased public awareness and corrupt officials held accountable.

    Advocacy for Sector-Specific Reforms: State residents have to push for reforms that enhance teacher training, address infrastructure deficiencies, and increase access to quality education for all. They should also ask for expanded health insurance coverage, improved facilities and equipment, and better access to essential healthcare services. They should equally demand for transparent and efficient use of funds for projects such as roads, bridges, and power grids.

    What experts say

    Dr. Wahab Balogun of Ambosit Capital Managers calls for increased transparency and accountability regarding how increased allocations are utilized by state governments. This could involve measures such as publishing detailed budget breakdowns, establishing citizen oversight committees, and conducting regular performance reviews. He emphasized the need to combat corruption and the potential for funds to be misused without proper safeguards and public scrutiny.

    Balogun urged state governments to prioritize public needs in their spending, particularly in areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. He advocated for “conducting public consultations to understand citizen priorities and aligning budgets accordingly. It is important to have long-term development plans, going beyond short-term projects and investing in areas that will create sustainable benefits for future generations”

    Read Also: Why Tinubu can’t reverse fuel subsidy removal, by Emir

    Furthermore, Balogun wants to see “increased engagement with stakeholders, such as citizens, civil society organizations, and the private sector. This could involve public forums, town halls, and partnerships to leverage expertise and resources for efficient project implementation. It is importance to have community empowerment, decentralization of decision-making and resource allocation to ensure projects address local needs and promote ownership”.

    Further weighing in on the utilization of increased revenue by state governments, Dr. Balogun emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making and broader systemic reforms to address underlying challenges.

    According to him, “state governments have a unique opportunity to prioritize public needs and maximize efficiency with the additional revenue from FAAC allocations. The use of data and evidence to inform decision-making processes, investments in data collection, analysis, and impact assessments. By sharing data openly for public scrutiny, state governments can ensure transparency and accountability in the management of public funds”

    Furthermore, Balogun stressed the significance of evidence-based policymaking, emphasizing the importance of designing and implementing interventions based on sound data and best practices. This approach, he argued, will help state governments to achieve better outcomes and maximize the impact of their investments in key areas such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and security.

    In addition to data-driven decision-making, Dr. Balogun called for broader systemic reforms beyond the immediate issue of state allocations. This includes addressing underlying socioeconomic challenges, strengthening institutions, and promoting good governance practices. He advocated for greater public participation in policymaking processes and holding government officials accountable for their actions.

    The political considerations surrounding increased FAAC allocations to Nigerian states are multifaceted and complex. Potential scenarios include politicians focusing on short-term gains rather than long-term development, federal-state relations and political allegiance influencing allocation decisions, the risk of using funds for electoral purposes, intra-state power struggles impacting distribution, and inter-party competition and public pressure.

    Navigating these considerations will require a delicate balance between short-term political realities and long-term development goals, with open dialogue, transparency, and strong checks and balances being crucial to ensure that increased FAAC allocations benefit all Nigerians.

    In his view, Mr Gbolade Idakolo, Managing Director/CEO SD&D Capital Management Limited said “the state governments are the greatest beneficiaries of the removal of subsidy and foreign exchange liberalisation which has brought increased revenue to the covers of the government.  In the first half of 2023 the FAAC allocation was between N400billion to N600billion and that increased drastically in the second half of 2023 to between N1.3trillion to N1.9trillion.

    “The state governments benefited immensely to the detriment of the people and we have not witnessed any meaningful development from most states who still owe salary arrears, pension and other loans. The states are expected to project the new administration’s push for renewed hope but they have not lived up to expectations instead it is business as usual for them. State governments need to wake up to their responsibilities if we are to witness meaningful development in this country because the federal government cannot do it alone”.

    States projected to receive N5.5tr windfall in 2024

    Projections indicate that the 36 states in Nigeria are set to receive a significant financial windfall through the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in the year 2024, totaling N5.5 trillion.

    Compared to the N3.3 trillion distributed in 2023, it is anticipated that states will enjoy an additional allocation of N2.24 trillion, marking a substantial increase in revenue.

    A breakdown of the projected revenue allocation reveals varying amounts for different states. Leading the pack is Lagos State, expected to receive N596.63 billion, followed closely by Delta with N564.29 billion and Akwa Ibom with N510.02 billion.

    Other states slated to benefit from the windfall include Adamawa (N141.62bn), Anambra (N199.52bn), Bauchi (N196.12bn), Benue (N120bn), Borno (N201.87bn), Ebonyi (N108.32bn), Edo (N185.35bn), Ekiti (N81.85bn), Gombe (N99.6bn), Enugu (N120bn), Imo (N136bn), Jigawa (N107.5bn), Kogi (N138.17bn), Kwara (N125.45bn), Nasarawa (N96.95bn), Niger (N236.9bn), Kaduna (N84.39bn), Katsina (N148.06bn), Kebbi (N145.02bn), Ondo (N45.36bn), Osun (N99.09bn), Oyo (N201.27bn), Taraba (N112bn), Plateau (N151.42bn), Sokoto (N108bn), Yobe (N87.94bn), and Zamfara (N107.93bn).

    With such substantial revenue expected, states are poised to embark on various developmental projects and initiatives aimed at improving the welfare and infrastructure of their respective regions. However, effective utilization and accountability in the management of these funds will be crucial to ensuring equitable development and sustainable growth across Nigeria.

  • ‘The world is quiet while we die (2)’

    ‘The world is quiet while we die (2)’

    • Desolation persists nine years after The Nation exposed Lafarge’s devastation of Ewekoro
    • We prioritise health, safety of our host communities – Lafarge Africa
    • The commercialization of despair over 60 years, two generations
    • Why Federal Govt must check cement company’s breach of regulations
    • Deadly metals in our blood – Residents

    In July 1987, Aminu Adigun Akintokun took his last breath thus signalling the end of a life grisly spent. Until his death, the 61-year-old stirred every day to a wind rush of catastrophe, choking on chronic asthma and poisonous air, which made something as commonplace as breathing extremely difficult. “We sensed there was trouble when the hair on his head and body started drying up and falling off, recalled his grandson, Olajide Akintokun.

    Like his grandpa, Olajide’s uncle, Biliaminu Akintokun, died in 2015. He also suffered shortness of breath while his hair peeled off his head and body.

    Olajide’s aunt, Amina Akintokun, battled a similar ailment until she died in 2022 at the age of 87. She had trouble breathing, which caused the family to invite a nurse to treat her at home. At her demise last year, Olajide recalled his father, the late Baale of Ewekoro, Mukaila Adeyeri Akintokun’s warning that he must never reside in Ewekoro.

    “Before he died in April 2010, he reiterated the warning to me, saying I must leave lest I suffered a similar fate like my late uncles and aunt,” disclosed Olajide. Consequently, he packed his belongings and relocated to Lagos.

    Two generations of the Akintokuns have died in Ewekoro, where the skies bleed perpetual grey and the gnarled trees, polluted farms, dusty roofs and shutters jointly fulfil the image of an industrial graveyard.

    In this neglected tract, dreams die out. Both the young and old expire in a thick haze of cement dust. The natives breathe in poisonous rubble and ingest slurry dispersed from Lafarge Africa’s industrial chimney.

    More worrisome are the poisoned crops, rendered toxic by the cement company’s production activities. Several studies have revealed that residents living between 1km to 5km from Lafarge’s production plant are imperilled by chemical, atmospheric, and toxic waste pollution. This is the fate of the residents of Ewekoro where both old and young suffer a slew of fatal respiratory problems and skin diseases until their death.

    For instance, the late Seyi Bisiriyu and John both died in their 20s, after they were diagnosed with shortness of breath and cement dust sediments in their hearts.

    The Nation findings revealed that the two youngsters and former residents of Olapeleke, a satellite community in Ewekoro, suddenly collapsed and died after suffering persistent shortness of breath.

    Several youths are deserting it in droves. For instance, it was due to the perilous environmental situation that Olajide’s parents raised him far away from Ewekoro. Even as an adult, the place holds little or no attraction to him, as he could neither work nor live there, he said. According to him, there are no decent job opportunities and living there exposes residents to a myriad of respiratory diseases caused by Lafarge pollution of the environment with cement dust.

    Idris Adio, a farmer, equally bemoaned the gruesome living conditions, stressing that his recurrent episodes of intense cough and shortness of breath, are caused by the persistent pollution of Ewekoro by Lafarge Africa.

    Speaking with The Nation, Adio wheezed through his sentences as he fought, albeit futilely to unclog his chest of phlegm. “This is what I go through. It’s what we all go through frequently,” he said.

    The wrinkled grimace of a life poorly spent

    The situation in Ewekoro seems to have deteriorated since The Nation’s expose of the dystopic living conditions in the community, in a five-part investigative report, in 2014.

    The wrinkled grimaces of a life poorly spent masked the faces of the natives, back in the period. Many of them presented a pitiable sight. For instance, Amos Odekunle, the Asiwaju of Olapeleke, a satellite community in Ewekoro, lamented his failing health. Speaking exclusively to The Nation, Odekunle recounted his battle with chronic cough. The light receded from his eyes every time he wheezed for breath. His words tapered off incoherently as he struggled to complete his sentences against tormenting spasms of chronic cough and a clogged chest.

    The village chief disclosed that he had been diagnosed with shortness of breath and a badly scarred chest. “The doctors say I have cement dust sediments in my heart. They say that is why I can no longer breathe easily,” he said. Odekunle attributed his ailment to long years of exposure to Lafarge’s limestone quarrying activities and persistent discharge of cement dust into his neighbourhood.

    Odekunle revealed that he had to take lots of drugs and hot water to decongest his heart of blockage. “When the pain becomes too unbearable for me, I have to travel to the General Hospital in Lagos to receive proper treatment. It is only then that I get to enjoy relief,” he said.

    Many residents of Ewekoro suffer asthma and shortness of breath but they never know until their health worsens. Many struggle to manage their ailments while avoiding the hospital. Aside from the fact that the only hospital within the axis is cited far away in a neighbouring community, they dread receiving any bad news that could worsen their fears and accentuate their impoverishment, said Ekeji Baale of Ewekoro, Musulumi Balogun, in a previous interview with The Nation on the issue.

    The few that go to the clinic can’t afford an inhaler or the drugs to manage their health condition. Right now, an inhaler costs between N4,800 and N5,200, which is markedly higher than its former price of N1,000 to N1,200 back in 2014, when The Nation exposed the situation in Ewekoro.

    Consequently, several parents give their children palm oil to lick whenever they suffer a clogged chest or shortness of breath. Those who can afford it give them sachet milk to drink hoping it would mitigate the effect of the polluted air.

    “We know it never works. It’s just a poor and desperate form of damage control. We have suffered the death of loved ones due to preventable ailments like asthma and shortness of breath. Many of us were not born with such ailments,” lamented Balogun.

    Such incidents have become a recurrent tragedy in Ewekoro given the communities’ persistent exposure to flying rock debris and cement dust from LafargeWAPCO’s plant chimney and limestone quarry in the area.

    Most residents of Ewekoro are unable to undergo comprehensive medical laboratory tests to determine the true state of their health due to the prohibitive costs. Consequently, many of them battling with health issues only get to know an aggravated state of decline.

    Pleading anonymity, health personnel in neighbouring townships revealed that what they provide is ameliorative care to most of their patients from Ewekoro who present with aggravated cases of pulmonary diseases.

    “Many of them dread being told to go for tests because they have neither the means nor resources to foot the bills. Most are unemployed and impoverished peasant farmers. The best we can always do is to comfort them and give them drugs to manage the pain. Those who are referred to larger health facilities take the referral and never come back until their health worsens,” said a nurse at the General Hospital in Itori.

    Studies affirm the deadly impact of cement dust exposure

    In a study carried out to determine selected heavy metals and electrolyte levels in the blood of staff of LafargeWAPCO and residents of the industrial community in Ewekoro and neighbouring districts, it was discovered that workers and the residents of the community and their neighbours are at great risk of lead poisoning to which they are persistently exposed.

    The study which was conducted by Dr O. O. Babalola and Babajide S. O of the Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Science, Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife, Osun State, and the Department of Science Laboratory Technology, Moshood Abiola Polytechnic, Abeokuta, Ogun State respectively. It focused on the determination of the levels of lead, cadmium, sodium and potassium in the blood of 36 selected industrial workers, 36 residents of the neighbouring communities and 12 residents of the communities further away from the industrial setting. The latter 12 residents served as the control population. The subjects were recruited from the cement, ceramic and granite industries at Ewekoro, Abeokuta North and South Local Government Areas of Ogun State.

    In the study, exposure to lead was identified as a major occupational hazard and a consequence of industrialisation, according to the researchers.

    “The most significant source of lead exposure is dust. Occupational dust is the reason for the test carried out on these industrial workers and the residents of the neighbouring communities. In each case, the lead in dust arises from a complex mixture of fine particles of soil, flaked paint and airborne particles of industrial or automotive origin. Dust is deposited in windowsills from outdoor sources. The particles characteristically accumulate on exposed surfaces and are also trapped in the fibres of clothing and carpets.

    “When lead is released into the environment, it has a long resident time compared with other pollutants. Lead and its compounds tend to accumulate in soil and sediments. They will remain bio-available far into the future due to their low solubility and relative freedom from microbial degradation. Another reason may be that, most of the arable crops being consumed by the residents of the neighbouring communities might have taken up lead from the soil. Lead from dust and gases from various industrial sources such as these factories can contaminate soil and plants.

    Govt looks away as Lafarge breaches mining, environmental laws

    The Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act, which came into effect in 2007, seeks to protect the environment and communities where solid mineral resources are found. The law protects the rights of host communities and their environment and provides for rehabilitation and penalties for defaulters.

    The Nation’s findings, however, revealed that Lafarge Africa continually flouts environmental and mining laws in its operations.

    According to the National Environmental (quarrying and blasting operations) Regulations, 2013, section 20 states “a person shall not locate a quarry or engage in blasting within three kilometres (3km) of any existing residential, commercial or industrial area.”

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    In addition, the Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act, 2007, section 3 (c) identifies lands excluded from mineral exploration and exploitation to include those occupied by any town or village. Section 22 of the National Environmental Regulations adds that ” A person shall not blast in such a way that the impact of such blast will cause any form of discomfort or nuisance to the public and residents within 1,000 metres from the epicentre of the site or users of the road thereof.”

    Section 123 of the Mining Act also states that “No person shall in the course of mining or exploration for minerals pollute or cause to be polluted any water or watercourse in the area within mining lease or beyond that area.”

    Despite these provisions, Lafarge has destroyed several houses and farmlands, while persistently polluting the air and water bodies by its operations in Ewekoro.

    Section 23 (2) of the National Environmental Regulations further specifies the time the blasting must not take place. “Blasting operations shall not be carried out at the rush hours of 7 am-10 am and 5 pm and beyond.” Notwithstanding, residents report that Lafarge engages in blasting operations even at night.

    Also, Lafarge’s pollution of Ewekoro manifests a clear violation of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Act of 1992. Section 2 (1)(2) of the Act states thus: “The public or private sector of the economy shall not undertake or embark on or authorise projects or activities without prior consideration, at an early stage, of their environmental effects.

    “Where the extent, nature or location of a proposed project or activity is such that it is likely to significantly affect the environment, its environmental impact assessment shall be undertaken by the provisions of this Act.”

    Residents despair as govt, regulators ignore their plight

    Despite Lafarge’s evident breaches of mining and environmental laws, the Minister of Environment, Balarade Abbas Lawal, recently commended the company for its commitment to “environmental sustainability,” to the chagrin of its long-suffering host communities in Ewekoro.

    Lawal gave this commendation during a courtesy visit of the company’s management team led by the Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, to the Minister in Abuja.

    The minister commended Lafarge Africa for the various awards received over the years in environmental responsibility referring to it as a testament of the company’s environmental friendliness.

    According to him, Lafarge Africa’s compliance with rules and regulations makes it comfortable to come for a courtesy visit, without waiting for the Ministry to come after them to comply.

    Against the backdrop of the environment minister’s curious endorsement of Lafarge’s operations, it becomes understandable why the National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) has failed to serve a statutory check on Lafarge’s operations in Ewekoro. The federal agency charged with the task of protecting the environment against industrial defaulters with actionable sanctions has, so far, failed to protect Ewekoro.

    According to Section 2 of the NESREA’s Act (2007), the Agency is responsible for the protection and development of the environment, biodiversity conservation and sustainable development of Nigeria‘s natural resources in general and environmental technology, including coordination and liaison with relevant stakeholders within and outside Nigeria on matters of enforcement of environmental standards, regulations, rules, laws, policies and guidelines.

    Attempts to contact the agency through its official phone line and the Ministry of Environment’s phone line failed repeatedly as both numbers were permanently switched off.  Attempts to reach the agency by email equally proved abortive.

    The Ministry of Mines and Steel Development has equally failed to check the activities of Lafarge Africa. Just recently, the ministry and Lafarge entered into a partnership to purportedly help the administration of President Bola Tinubu realise its ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda.

    The announcement was made by the Minister for Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, while receiving a Lafarge Africa delegation, led by the company’s Group Managing Director, Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, on a courtesy visit.

    Alake emphasised the critical role Lafarge Africa Plc plays in the mining sector of the Nigerian economy, stressing that the role aligns with the present administration’s policy to make the solid minerals sector a significant contributor to the nation’s gross domestic product.

    Residents of Ewekoro, however, urged Alake to launch an inquiry into the company’s operations. “If the minister knows the level of damage done by Lafarge to our community, he wouldn’t be so eager to partner with them just yet,” said Olatunde Idowu, a teacher and former resident of Ewekoro.

    Crafty tokenism and bullying of dissenters

    In the first part of this report, published last week, The Nation highlighted Lafarge’s recourse to crafty tokenism disguised as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and elders’ support, this curious sort of CSR has for a long while, served the interests of the company in stifling dissent or silencing it outright.

    Immediately after last week’s publication, however, a certain employee referred to as Engineer Yomi – allegedly in charge of the organisation’s damage control – started reaching out to respondents featured in the last report.

    “They have started calling them for “urgent meetings,” in a bid to shut them up. When they refuse, they will issue subtle threats to them in a bid to prevent them or any other person from speaking to the press,” said one of the local chiefs in Ewekoro.

    Already, factions loyal to Lafarge within Ewekoro and satellite communities, mostly traditional chiefs, have started intense lobbying and bullying of perceived dissenters, accusing them of working against the community’s interests.

    “That is how our people behave, many of those who are supporting Lafarge today were yesterday’s dissenters. But now that they are enjoying patronage and cash tokens from the company, they have stopped speaking for our interests,” lamented an aggrieved youth.

    Indeed, it is noteworthy that some of the traditional chiefs and residents who spoke to The Nation, nine years ago, accusing Lafarge of destroying their homes and farmlands, have switched sides.

    While some have suddenly lost their voice, a few others barefacedly defend Lafarge claiming it is doing its best.

    The natives would find it easier perhaps to assert their rights if they could escape the cycle of tokenism that has them jostling for “paltry sums” given to them annually by Lafarge Africa. While the latter prides itself on its commendable Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives in the area, more residents of Ewekoro have dismissed the company’s claims, arguing that whatever form of support the company gives to their community as part of its CSR, will never be enough palliative to the damage it wreaks on their neighbourhood by its production activities.

    A good example is the so-called elder support. The traditional authorities are asked to suggest beneficiaries of the fund and when they do, Lafarge gives each beneficiary N50, 000. When the latter gets back to the community, he or she has to share the money with about 20 other people. In the end, what often gets to each beneficiary, around N2,000 or thereabouts, is usually too ridiculous to be acknowledged.

    Hence from a purported N50,000 annual support to one aged person, in Ewekoro, what gets to the beneficiary and other recipients, is a measly N2,000.

    We are committed to zero harm to people – Lafarge Africa

    In an exclusive interview with The Nation, Lafarge’s Head of Corporate Communications, Public Affairs and Sustainable Development, Ginikanwa Frank-Durugbor, stated, “We recognise the importance of prioritising the health and safety of our people and host communities and reducing the environmental impact of our operations to the barest minimum.

    “As a member of Holcim, we are reinventing how the world builds for today, tomorrow and the future through our commitment to decarbonise our business operations and drive sustainable growth. Our sustainability strategy is centred on four pillars including climate and energy, circular economy, nature and people. 

    “We are committed to conducting our business with zero harm to people while minimizing our environmental footprint. This investment in a new bag filter underscores this commitment. Our stack emission measurement is done by government-accredited agencies every quarter and the report is shared with both the State and Federal Ministry of Environment.

    “In addition, Air quality measurement (Total Suspended Particulate) conducted across the plant fence lines shows all measured values are below the national standard of 250 µg/m3. However, measurement was also carried out simultaneously on 3rd party (Lagos/Abeokuta express road) influence and the result showed a dust (Total Suspended Particulate) value of more than 250 µg/m3. Mitigation measures are to plant trees along our perimeter fence to prevent the impact of dust from the third party. We also carry out palliative repairs regularly on bad portions of the road to reduce fugitive dust generation.”

    Lawless in Ewekoro, humbled in America

    Notwithstanding Lafarge’s assurances of its commitment to the best business practices, many residents of Ewekoro are hardly impressed. Its operations in Ewekoro have triggered various comparisons between the cement company’s operations in Nigeria and in other parts of the world.

    In 2021, the United States federal government, New York State and a LafargeHolcim cement plant reached a settlement to resolve alleged violations of federal and state water regulations. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for New York’s Northern District, the Environmental Protection Agency and New York State announced the deal with the LafargeHolcim facility in Ravena. The consent decree would require the company to pay an $850,000 civil penalty and comply with a state discharge permit.

    It’s alleged that from 2015 through April 2021, the cement company violated effluent limitations 273 times with a variety of pollutants. The agencies say the plant, situated across the street from the Ravena-Coeymans-Selkirk High School on Route 9W, was also responsible for unauthorized discharges into tributaries of the Hudson River, such as Coeyman’s Creek and Hannacroix Creek.

    Judith Enck, former EPA regional administrator and president of Beyond Plastics, said the plant has a long history of violating environmental laws.

    “It’s really troubling that we’re now just learning that for over six years the company violated the Clean Water Act and is now being fined $850,000 by federal and state environmental agencies. Remember, this cement kiln is very close to the Hudson River. It’s also across the street from a large public school. The company was discharging large amounts of pollutants either directly into the Hudson or into tributaries that run into the Hudson. They were discharging sulfuric acid, partially treated the landfill leachate, fecal coliform and other materials. This violation of Law happened 273 times between April 2015 and April 2021.”

    A humbled LafargeHolcim, in its reaction, stated that it cooperated fully with state and federal regulators, adding the “consent decree is a humbling reminder that we did not achieve our expectations, for which we take full responsibility. We have worked closely with the State and Federal Government to take steps to ensure we are in continuous compliance, today and into the future.”

    Under the agreement, LafargeHolcim is being directed to invest in an Environmental Benefit Project that will help improve the health of the Hudson River, which residents termed “a victory for the town of Coeymans” in Albany County.

    In 2019, Lafarge Africa’s parent company, LafargeHolcim, became an entity of interest in an investigation of the operations of its cement plant in the northern Serbian town of Beočin.  A government inspection had revealed that the factory’s harmful emissions far exceeded the legal thresholds. Despite this disclosure, the report has remained confidential and no proceedings have been opened to date.

    Three years ago, Lafarge Africa’s parent company, France-based LafargeHolcim said that Lafarge Béton was not responsible for the discharge of ‘particles of cement, treatment liquids and plastic microfibers’ from its Bercy concrete plant in Paris Department. The La Télégramme newspaper reported that the plant has been under environmental inspection since late August 2020. The company argued that the pollution resulted from a single incident ‘caused by malicious parties’ who knew of the ongoing investigation.

    The mayor of Paris had contacted the public prosecutor to request a criminal action against LafargeHolcim.

    Between a small fry and the behemoth

    Against the backdrop of the cement giant’s stark environmental footprint in the global business arena, the United Nations Climate Change Summit, otherwise called COP28, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, opened with the historic launch of the Loss and Damage Fund on Thursday, December 3. While the operationalisation of the fund on the first day of the summit demonstrated the commitment of world leaders to the resolution reached last year at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Nigeria is expected to leverage on the foci of this year’s event to resolve its myriad of environmental challenges, particularly those triggered by industrial pollution.

    Victims of pollution like the residents of Ewekoro believe they constitute a small fry in the cauldron of Lafarge Africa’s manufacturing operations.

    “Nobody cares about us here. Nobody. Left to the government, Lafarge is treating us right. They are giving them awards here and there. Nobody sees the destruction they are visiting on us,” said Kehinde Olaleye, a commercial transporter.

    Olaleye, 31, relocated to Arigbajo-Ifo, with his wife and only son after the latter developed a chronic cough “before his second birthday.” He disclosed that he had to desert his family home and leave it for squatters.

    Corroborating him, Bolanle Moyo, a trader, stated that before she fled from Ewekoro, she and her husband endured several spells of starvation as her petty trade suffered a complete dearth of patronage.

    “No money was coming in. Everybody came to buy things on credit. My husband was out of job due to his failing health. He used to be a farmer as he inherited large tracts of farmland from his grandfather. But he developed whooping cough and became too weak to work on the farm. When he started coughing blood-stained sputum and suffering shortness of breath, we knew we must leave the community,” she said.

    The pervasive devastation is responsible for the mass exodus of youths from the community into the suburbs of Lagos and Abeokuta, and sometimes, even farther.

    Notwithstanding, the hopes of the once vibrant agrarian community are riding on the President Bola Tinubu-led administration to intervene and save it from complete annihilation.

    While campaigning for the presidency, President Tinubu promised to boost food production and employment while helping to mitigate the harmful effects of extreme weather cycles and climate change. According to him, approximately 35 per cent of Nigeria’s arable land is presently under cultivation. He stated that his administration’s target will increase this to 65 per cent within four years.

    He said his “Farm Nigeria project” will begin with a special focus on the 11 river basins throughout the country, explaining that such an innovative project will aim to make more arable land available for agriculture.

    The situation in Ewekoro, however, manifests in counter-purpose to President Tinubu’s promises. In its prosperous epoch, the rivers Ewekoro, Amititi, Sofuntere, Abalaye and Olorekore irrigated Ewekoro and its satellite communities but Lafarge channelled the five rivers away into its quarry thus causing them to dry out, the villagers claimed.

    Consequently, the communities’ cash crops gradually died off. Ever since the township has been struggling to deal with the tragic loss of its once flourishing agricultural economy.

    There are no flourishing cocoa, rice, palm kernel and cocoyam farms anymore; a dense forest and swamp of shrubs and thickets plastered with cement dust, currently dominate the wide tracts that once attracted itinerant contract farmhands, agricultural entrepreneurs, farmers, middlemen, transporters and traders, to mention a few, to the erstwhile prosperous enclave.

    Against the backdrop of the township’s devastation, the Environment Minister, Lawal, and Minister of Solid Minerals, Alake, have both endorsed Lafarge Africa’s operations in Nigeria.

    Some would be kind enough perhaps to oblige them with an uncensored narrative of Ewekoro. The industrial township howls like a wounded animal, scraped by the ripped moans of both the old and young wheezing through emaciated lungs and billows of cement soot, in search of breathable air.

    This is the story of Ewekoro, where Lafarge Africa peddles patronage, like the proverbial carrot, to suppress generations of disgruntled natives, swallowing discontent for a token and the meal it could buy in silent fury.

  • Decision day looms in Kogi, Imo, Bayelsa

    Decision day looms in Kogi, Imo, Bayelsa

    In less than one week on November 11, 2023, voters in three states – Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa – would be casting ballots to pick their new governors. It’s been a long time since one day was so crowded with off-cycle polling.

    The stakes are particularly high given that some parties are still in the throes of the fallout from the February/March 2023 general elections. Added to this is the fact that, historically, these three states are noted for very tight electoral contests where the margin of victory or defeat is especially close.

    Kogi, for instance, presents a very interesting scenario where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) faces a very strong challenge from a Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate who was once in its fold. It traditional rival – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – is doing everything in its power to exit the opposition wilderness, including forging a last-minute alliance with the Labour Party (LP). Whether this would be enough to get it over the line, remains to the seen.

    In Imo State, Governor Hope Uzodimma, is face a battle on two political fronts, compounded by controversies arising from the Nigerian Labour Congress’ (NLC) attempt to carry out industrial action so close to the polls. The row that trailed the assault on the union’s president Joe Ajaero has been all the talk in the last few days. It goes without saying that going into the polls, the atmosphere is charged.

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    Lastly, the election is Bayelsa is also proving to be a no-holds-barred affair. Former Minister of State for Petroleum and one-time governor of the state, Timipre Sylva, is giving the incumbent PDP’s Douye Diri a run for his money.

    This past week there have been accusations and counter accusations of violence. The state in the past was noted for its hot electoral contests. Observers would be hoping that after the fierce rhetoric, actual voting would turn out to be a relatively peaceful affair.

    In this INSIGHT report, our team of reporters set the state for what promises to be an enthralling day when ordinary voters get to call the shots for a change.

  • Kogi: Who succeeds Bello?

    Kogi: Who succeeds Bello?

    Residents of Kogi State, in the North Central, would go to polls next Saturday to decide who succeeds Governor Yahaya Bello, whose tenure would be ending early next year. According to the list published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 18 candidates are in the race. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the major contenders.

    Next Saturday’s governorship election in Kogi State is likely to be a close contest among the three leading candidates in the race for several reasons. Going by the list published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 18 political parties are fielding candidates for next Saturday’s governorship election in Kogi State. Some of the candidates are Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Senator Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP); Murtala Ajaka of Social Democratic Party (SDP); Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress (ADC); Olayinka Braimoh of the Action Alliance (AA); Kingsley Idoko Ilonah of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Dr. Samson Agada Omale of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Admiral Usman Jibrin of the Accord (A) party amongst others.

    Observers are of the view that five key issues would shape the contest. They are the power of incumbency, ethnic rivalry, fallouts of political violence witnessed in past elections, defections and anti-parties activities that are spurred by disagreements arising from the primaries of the various parties.

    Power of Incumbency:

    Like elsewhere in the country, the power of incumbency is a crucial factor in this election and the ruling APC is banking seriously on it. The APC also controls the Federal Government with its enormous coercive apparatus and remains the party to beat in the election.

    With federal and state might behind the APC candidate, the opposition will face a herculean task in their bid to win the election. Appointees of Governor Bello from all parts of the state are gearing up to garner winning votes for their party’s candidate.

    Ethnic rivalry:

    Next Saturday’s governorship election promises to be a contest among the three major ethnic nationalities in Kogi State; the Igala, the Ebira and the Okun. Observers believe the decision of the APC to give its ticket to Usman Ododo, who is of Ebira extraction, to succeed his kinsman, Governor Yahaya Bello, has introduced an ethnic dimension to the contest.

    Since the creation of the state in 1991, elections in the North Central state have always been contests between the two major tribes, the Igala and the Ebira, while the third tribe, the Okun and other minority tribes usually play the role of the beautiful bride.

    This time around, the main opposition party, the PDP has opted for a candidate of Okun extraction, Senator Melaye to face the APC’s Ododo in the election. The SDP, which has been a fringe player in past elections, is making waves ahead of this election because it is fielding a candidate of Igala extraction, Murtala Ajaka. The Igalas are the most populous ethnic group in the state and have a considerable influence when it comes to electing the governor of the state.

    Though all the parties are claiming that their candidates deserve the plum job based on capacity or their track records, it is clear from the campaign that ethnicity will be a major factor that will shape the contest.

    Based on voting strengths, none of these three tribes can single-handedly make one of their governors. So, ethnic minorities like the Bassa Nge, the Bassa Kwomu, the Nupe, the Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may likely decide who wins the election scheduled to be held on November 11.

    Kogi is made up of many tribes. But, the dominant ones are the Igala in the east, Ebira in the centre, and the Okun in the west. While the Igalas and the Ebiras have presided over the state over the years, the Okuns are yet to get the same opportunity. Senator Melaye now carries the hope of the Yoruba-speaking tribe to occupy the coveted position of Kogi State chief executive.

    The APC’s Usman Ododo and the PDP’s Dino Melaye are considered the frontline contenders in the race. Interestingly, Ododo, a former auditor general of local governments, is from the Ebira tribe, just like the incumbent Governor Bello.

    Senator Smart Adeyemi, who lost the APC ticket to Ododo in the party’s primary claimed during an interview on Channels Television that the APC candidate is a cousin to the governor.

    But, Governor Bello has responded that he has no blood relationship with the APC governorship candidate, contrary to the propaganda by the opposition. He said Ododo emerged based on merit, through a keenly contested, free and fair election.

    He added: “Ododo has endeared himself to the people of Kogi. How can you be the most popular candidate, positioned to win and still instigate violence? Ododo and I may come from the same place but we do not share any blood relationship whatsoever. Do your findings. He is a very compassionate, hardworking and competent fellow and those qualities spoke for him at the primary.”

    Bello justified the choice of a fellow Ebira man to succeed by saying that his administration wanted to do away with ethnic sentiments that had set the state backwards before his emergence. He said: “Ethnic sentiments set Kogi back for 19 years and we must break away from that for competence. My administration has changed the narrative of ethnicity and has been appointing and working with competent people as against choosing people from tribes in the state. We raise people from different backgrounds, irrespective of their senatorial zones,” he added.

    Being the most populous ethnic group in Kogi State, the Igalas in Kogi East Senatorial District have utilized their numbers to dominate the governorship seat in the past. After being in political wilderness for eight years, the Igalas who occupy nine out of the 21 local governments in the state would want to produce Governor Bello’s successor. The Ebiras on the other hand still want to produce the next governor to make up for the years that the Igalas have dominated the governorship seat.

    Similarly, in the spirit of equity and fairness, the Okuns in Kogi West Senatorial District are also clamouring for the governorship seat. The Okun people have not been privileged to produce a democratically-elected governor since the creation of the state in 1991. Being the third largest ethnic group in the state, the Okuns believe they deserve to produce the next governor because other senatorial districts have produced at least one governor.

    Political violence:

    Kogi’s growing notoriety for political violence is another key issue that may shape the November 11 election. Since 2003, incidences of violence have become one of the characteristics of elections in the state. In 2019, the barbaric killing of a woman, Salome Abuh, who was burnt alive in her house shortly after the announcement of the results of that year’s election, portrayed Kogi politics in a bad light.

    Recent developments suggest that 2023 may not be an exception concerning election violence. The signs are ominous and if allowed to fester, it will surely affect the election with the possibility of low turnout of voters. For instance, on Tuesday, the national leadership of the SDP raised an alarm over what it described as cases of violence and insecurity in the state ahead of Saturday’s election. Its National Chairman, Alhaji Shehu Gadam told reporters in Abuja that the SDP is worried over the development.

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    Gadam urged President Bola Tinubu to quickly wade into the matter to restore security in the state. The SDP chieftain said Nigeria should learn lessons from the military coups in some West African countries by working towards inclusivity and securing the country. He said the SDP is worried about the growing insecurity ahead of the election. He said: “We are not leaving anything to chance; we are going to remain focused and we will not be distracted. We are calling on all our members to come out in their numbers and cast their ballots, escort the results from the polling units to collation centres at the wards, local governments and state levels. They should, however, be law-abiding and should not be intimidated.”

    Defections, anti-party activities:

    There has been unprecedented rate of defections from one party to another. For instance, during the February 2023 general elections, ADC claimed two House of Representatives seats in Kogi State. The duo reaped from the overt and covert anti-party activities that took place in their respective constituencies. This was a fallout of the party’s primary. It led many aggrieved politicians to support different candidates.

    A similar scenario is playing out this around. For example, after Dino emerged candidate of PDP at the party’s primary, a horde of politicians left the fold in anger. Similarly, the APC primary that produced Ododo as its flag bearer is still being challenged in the courts. In like manner, the outcome of the NNPP primary has been upturned and Musa Mabarak has been replaced with Hassan Abdullahi. The fallout from these contentious primaries may force aggrieved politicians to engage in anti-party activities ahead of the election.

     The various parties are leaving no stone unturned to ensure that they win the election.

    Ododo (APC):

    The APC is relying on the achievements of Governor Yahaya Bello in the last seven and half years to win the election. Speaking at an event recently, Bello said he has put on the ground a sound development template that would make his successor outperform him. He added that Ododo understands the process and will take Kogi to greater heights if allowed to do so.

    Bello said he would retire to his house after leaving office on January 27, 2024, to be with his children because they have missed him immensely since he became governor. He said Kogi needs someone like Ododo as his successor to sustain his development strides.

    The governor said his achievements in the last seven and half years include the allocation of 30 per cent of the budget to education (which has led to the building of two new state universities) boosting the sector and taking Kogi from 28th position in 2016 when he took over to 14 out of the 36 states of the country.

    Other achievements, the governor said, include making Kogi the best state in the north in terms of amount and salary payment; recruitment of over 1,500 teachers; allocation of 16 per cent of the budget to healthcare leading to improved healthcare delivery and services via the building of a 300-bed reference hospital in Okene with modern equipment, raising the state’s internally generated revenue (IGR) from N250m in 2016 to N1.5bn now, reduction of the state’s debt profile and attraction of $1bn inflows in 2020 among others.

    Melaye (PDP):

    Melaye who secured the PDP ticket during the party’s primary held on Sunday, April 16, 2023, hopes to become the first Okun man to occupy the Lugard House seat of government in Lokoja, the Kogi State capital.

    The 49-year-old politician recognizes the challenges ahead to emerge as the governor of the north-central state in November. Since his emergence, he has been on a fence-mending mission to get his fellow contestants to rally around him for the forthcoming election. He has also visited key PDP leaders in the state, including former governors, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris and Idris Wada. Whether this fence-mending strategy will pay off on the day of the election, remains to be seen.

    Melaye was said to have emerged as the party’s flag bearer with the backing of the former Vice President and the presidential candidate of the PDP in the just concluded general election, Atiku Abubakar.

    However, there are suggestions in some quarters that Melaye would not get the support of the majority Igala tribe. But, his media aide, Sam Noni, disagrees. He said people from the area will queue behind his boss 100 per cent. His words: “The Igalas know that after eight years of an Ebira governor, it is only fair for power to move to Kogi West. Also, they know that if power remains in Kogi Central, where Ahmed Ododo is from, power will take another 16 years to return to Kogi East. To maintain peace and unity in the state, we should adopt power rotation, and this time it is the turn of Kogi West.”

    Theophilus Abu Agada, a PDP chieftain, agrees with Noni that the Igalas would vote for Melaye. He said: “I do not think the PDP committed a political blunder by giving their ticket to Senator Dino Melaye. Senator Melaye competed for the ticket and won squarely through a transparent process, and no aspirant who participated has challenged the outcome.

    “The Okuns are part and parcel of Kogi State and deserve to fly the flag of the PDP. It is interesting to note that they have always supported candidates of Igala extraction in past elections. I do not see any reason why the Igalas would not support them to produce a governor for the first time since the creation of the state. For equity and fairness, the Igalas have done 16 years, and Ebiras have done eight years; it is time for an Okun person also to govern.”

    Ajaka (SDP):

    Murtala Ajaka who is flying the flag of the SDP said he has absolute confidence in INEC to deliver a transparent election. He described himself as the most popular contestant and vowed to liberate the state if elected. He said the people of Kogi State are with him and will vote his party into office.

    Ajaka, who was until recently a staunch member of the APC, indicated recently that some of Governor Bello’s loyalists are secretly behind his aspiration to govern the state. He accused Governor Bello of imposing Ododo as the flag bearer of the APC. As a former deputy publicity secretary and a member of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), he was actively involved in the campaign for the just concluded 2023 general elections. It was after he was disqualified from participating in the APC governorship primary in April that Ajaka dumped the APC for the SDP. 

    The SDP candidate dismissed allegations that he was running an ‘Igala’ agenda, saying that he was going there for the Kogi people and to run a ‘Kogi agenda.’ His words: “We have absolute confidence in INEC. The rules are very clear, INEC has a guideline and they have always followed their guideline. Whichever way INEC decides to conduct the election, we are ready to follow them. I have absolute confidence in INEC that we are going to have a transparent election in Kogi State and by the grace of God we are going to win.”

  • Can Sylva, Eradiri unseat Diri?

    Can Sylva, Eradiri unseat Diri?

    The battle for the soul of Bayelsa State has become intense and intriguing among three top contenders as the state’s governorship poll holds on Saturday, November 11, 2023, SIMON UTEBOR writes.

    THE people of the oil-rich Bayelsa State, the centre of gravity of the Ijaw nation and a centrifugal force in the Niger Delta, are on the march again to elect a new governor on Saturday, November 11, 2023. Without any iota of doubt, the stakes are high and the political atmosphere is tense as palpable fear and trepidation fill the air.

    Governor Douye Diri, the current occupant of the Creek Haven, a sobriquet for the Bayelsa State Government House, is battling to get re-elected for second term under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    But the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Chief Timipre Sylva, and that of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Udengs Eradiri, who are no pushovers, are poised to wrest power from the incumbent governor, whose first tenure will end on February 14, 2024.

    Unlike the previous governorship contests in the state, the coming poll promises to be interesting, tense, intriguing and of wider participation by voters considering the intensity of campaigns carried out by flagbearers of their parties particularly those of the PDP, APC and LP.

    Though 16 political parties are taking part in the coming election, political analysts opined that the poll is a two-horse race between the candidates of the PDP, Senator Douye Diri, and the APC, former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, while the candidate of the LP, Udengs Eradiri, is seen as a political dark horse that could spring surprises if the voters decide to abandon the old political order in the state.

    Already, the race is filled with the frenzy, intrigues and drama that come with politicking as there have been alignments and re-alignments and clandestine meetings have taken over the nights.

    The political gladiators are certainly gearing up for the battle of wits to succeed Douye Diri or perhaps put an end to his political dynasty (the Prosperity Government) which has held sway since he assumed office on February 14, 2020.

    In the 2019 governorship poll that threw up Diri, after the Supreme Court overturned the victory of Mr. David Lyon, the then candidate of the APC, there was an interplay of various factors like security, electoral umpire, capacity, money and propaganda; all those combined to sway the voters’ choices.

    But this time round, political watchers believe the governorship poll will be a titanic battle with the APC deeply rooted at the central government and the PDP having its firm grip on the state government and the LP depending on the youths to make impact.

    But what will actually define the day at the governorship election, which will throw up the next governor of the state come November 11 will comprise a number of factors such as performances, perceptions, connections, financial resources, acceptance, among other critical factors.

    Bayelsa political trajectory

    Given the trajectory of power play in Bayelsa politics, there are two things one cannot take away from the majority of Bayelsa voters, political analysts and observers: their love for the choice of governorship candidates produced by the different political parties, their antecedents in the positions they hold as well as the ones they previously held and their contributions to the peace, security and development of the citizens of the state.

    As the stage is now set and the battle already intense on who the cap should fit to take over the mantle of leadership in the state, the battle is among all the regular political parties but the ruling PDP, the APC and the LP stand out as parties of choice with promising political manifestos to convince the voters on whom to vote for.

    Based on the history of both the PDP and the APC in the state, there is political belief that any person, either of the two parties throws up as the standard bearer stands the chance of becoming the next governor of the state.

    But with the rise in prominence of the LP and the ‘Obidients’ Movement’ in the country’s political space, the LP is a party to beat considering the impressive performance of the party in the state during the Presidential election held February 25, 2023.

    There is a widespread belief in Bayelsa that the person likely to win the poll is always known few weeks to the actual election day due to certain factors such as followership, motivation, quality of power brokers, gale of defections, party unity, robust campaigns among others.

    Frontliners

    While many political observers contend that the November 11 poll may just be a two-horse race between Governor Douye Diri and the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva of the APC, some analysts have warned that the other political parties and their candidates should not be ignored.

    Specifically, supporters of the LP standard bearer, Comrade Udengs Eradiri, a former President of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide believed that he could spring by riding on the wave of his popularity and that of the party in the last general elections to defeat the ruling PDP and the opposition APC in the state.

    Apart from the top three contenders, the electoral umpire equally listed as candidates for the election Subiri Waibodei Joseph of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Osuluku Binalaiyefa of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Simon Imotimi Karioru of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), Idikio Warmate Jones of the Accord Party and Kalango Stanley Davies of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), among others.

    A stalwart of one of the leading parties, while assessing his party’s chances in the coming elections noted that the coming poll would be dramatic and eye-opening, stressing that the political dynamics prevailing in the state is different from what happened in the 2019 election.

    He asserted that Bayelsa electorate are going to elect the right person for the topmost job in the state who will not play politics with people’s lives, wellbeing and security.

    He stated that the last presidential election had shown the people that their votes could count and many of them are ready to use that power to enthrone the best person among the pack of candidates.

    Governor Douye Diri

    The incumbent Governor of the state and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Douye Diri, has come a long way politically. Diri had represented Kolokuma/Opokuma-/Yenagoa Federal Constituency between 2015 and 2019 before he was elected into the Senate in 2019.

    He hails from Sampou community, Kolokuma/Opokuma LGA in Bayelsa Central Senatorial District. He is seeking a re-election for a fresh mandate to enable him to continue as Governor and build on the successes recorded in his first term.

    He is a graduate of Political Science (Education) and worked as a teacher for many years before he ventured into business and later joined active politics. He has christened his administration ‘Government of Prosperity’.

    While assessing his chances, Diri said he was confident of victory as neither his government nor his party is afraid of any opposition party in the state. He declared Bayelsa as a PDP state, adding that the party in the state is more united now than ever before and was ready to face any opposition in the election.

    Diri believes he deserves a second term based on his performance in almost four years, saying that  his administration had made appreciable progress in virtually every sector of the state’s economy.

    He listed some of them to include infrastructure, education, health  agriculture, sports, skills acquisition and human capacity development.

    Ardent PDP supporters and chieftains believe that Diri is a winning team that should not be changed but be allowed to continue by urging Bayelsans to re-elect him.

    For the supporters, there is no vacancy at the Creek Haven, noting that Governor Douye Diri will win in all the eight local government areas of Bayelsa State regardless of where the other candidates come from.

    They say that Project Bayelsa is very key to the Governor and he feels very strongly about it.

    Though he is passionate about developing the state which is believed not to be at par yet with other states created the same time with it, political analysts believe that he has not done pretty good in ‘stomach infrastructure’.

    It is believed that due to unemployment, poor electricity supply, among others, many citizens of the state have been frustrated by poverty with the culture of begging now the order of the day.

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    Notwithstanding the stigma of stinginess placed on him, Governor Diri remains a candidate to beat on November 11 as he still commands a wide followership across the length and breadth of the state.

    Chief Timipre Sylva

    Chief Timipre Sylva was born in Brass, Bayelsa State. He got part of his education in Bayelsa and in Lagos, the former capital of Nigeria. He was a member of the Rivers State House of Assembly in the 1990s.

    Sylva graduated from the University of Port Harcourt with distinction in English (Linguistics) in 1986. At the time, he was the best graduating student from his department and departmental valedictorian. He was subsequently awarded a Doctor in International Relations (Honoris causa) by the UBIS University in 2011. Sylva was awarded his second Doctorate (Honoris Causa) in Public Administration on the 2nd of December 2020 by AiPA (African Institute of Public Administration), Leading Edge Foundation and LBBS.

    Sylva’s political career started in 1992 when he won a seat in the House of Assembly Election representing Brass constituency in old Rivers State. At the time, he was the youngest of all the members in the House of Assembly.

    His political career continued when he was appointed as the Special Assistant to the Minister of State for Petroleum in 2004, Dr Edmund Daukoru. He continued in that position until he resigned to join the PDP governorship primaries in 2006 in Bayelsa State in which he placed second behind Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.

    After the PDP presidential primaries election and Jonathan was appointed as a running mate to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of blessed memory, the governorship candidacy for PDP became vacant, and conventional wisdom took the better of the political actors and Sylva was elevated to occupy the position of PDP gubernatorial candidate.

    As a candidate of the PDP Sylva won the 2007 Bayelsa State gubernatorial election and succeeded Goodluck Jonathan who went on to become Vice President. During his inauguration he had said that Bayelsa was “the least developed industrially and commercially” of all 36 states.

    On the other hand, former Governor Sylva is also very optimistic that he would win the November 11 election and emerge as the next governor of the state.

    He claimed that he joined the governorship race because the present administration headed by Douye Diri is not equal to the task in putting Bayelsa on the path of genuine prosperity. He believes the people of the state are eager to vote out the PDP administration and enthrone the APC in power.

    How well Sylva has been able to manage the discontent that greeted his emergence as the party candidate as well as the alleged frosty relationship between him and some party leaders is not yet clear as tongues are still wagging.

    Some party faithful argued that Sylva having been a former Governor and Minister should have allowed David Lyon to try to reclaim his mandate which was overturned by the Supreme Court on the eve of his swearing in.

    The immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources is not a political Lilliput and can square up with any opponent and defeat him.

    Despite the alleged schisms in his party, the APC, Sylva’s rising political profile in the state is enough to scare his opponents. If crowds at campaign grounds were anything to go by, it won’t be wrong to say that Sylva has won the election already.

    Engineer Udengs Eradiri

    Comrade Udengs Eradiri was born on 22nd March, 1976. He is a member of the Nigerian Society of Engineers, COREN Certified graduate from the University of Benin with a degree in Production Engineering and also has a certificate in Dredging Technology from the A&M University Texas USA.

    He also obtained an Honorary Doctorate (Hons.) in Business Management and Corporate Leadership at European American University in 2017. He also attended the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, Kuru Jos, Nigeria. He is certified by the Lagos Business School, Nigeria on Negotiation Skills.

    He is an engineer, businessman, human rights activist, Ijaw Leader and politician who is determined to continually enhance the business and corporate sector by fostering management skills, technical expertise and effective leadership, determined to contribute and provide support to community development programs in the Niger-Delta Region, Nigeria and the world at large.

    Comrade Eradiri, a former President of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), who is the candidate of the Labour Party, brims with confidence about the possibility of emerging the next governor of the state.

    The activist-turned politician believes strongly that the people of the state will vote for complete change of old order on November 11.

    Eradiri has always decried that widespread poverty in Bayelsa and that businesses are leaving Yenagoa for other places due to alleged poor governance by Governor Douye Diri.

    Eradiri who served as Commissioner for Youth and later redeployed to the Ministry of the Environment in the state under former Governor Seriake Dickson, noted that he would anchor his development agenda on ‘People, Education, Agriculture and Power’ (PEAP).

    Eradiri, an intellectually mobile politician, also promised to leverage the recent inclusion of power generation into the concurrent legislative list to use the abundant gas deposits across the state for industries and power generation, if elected.

    The LP governorship candidate, who political observers described as a dark horse is a formidable force to reckon with on the election day and whoever ignores him does so at his/her own peril.

    Voting strengths of Bayelsa LGAs

    Bayelsa, a riverine and estuary state, has a total area of 10,773 square kilometres comprising eight local government areas: Ekeremor, Kolokuma/Opokuma, Yenagoa, Nembe, Ogbia, Sagbama, Brass and Southern Ijaw.

    The current data on voting strength of the eight LGAs indicate that the state has 1,056,862 registered voters as of the last registration exercise done by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) before the February and March 2023 general elections.

    It is believed that the voting strength of the eight LGAs and voters actually turning out to vote for parties and candidates of their choice will be a major determinant of chances of the parties to win the November 11, 2023.

    The candidates and 16 political parties vying for the coming guber poll, will battle for votes in the areas having highest number of voters outdo their opponents.

    INEC records show that out of the figure, Yenagoa LGA has the highest, with 218,294; Southern Ijaw, one of the biggest areas in the state, ranks second with 184,401 registered voters; Sagbama ranks third with 138,832 voters, while Ekeremor, another area with high population, is fourth with 137,225 registered voters.

    Ogbia has 119,571; Nembe, 99,035; Brass, 94,040 while Kolokuma/Opokuma LGA has 65,364.

    From the figures, YELGA is considered to be the cash cow which every candidate and party will battle to get big votes. Apart from having highest number of voters, YELGA is where people turn out to vote in elections en masse compared to other areas.

    From the electoral umpire’s data, the PDP made huge wins in the last presidential election in the areas having largest number of voters with the exception of Yenagoa Council where it scored less than the LP.

    The PDP and LP lost to the APC in Ogbia, ex-President Goodluck Jonathan’s LGA which had been PDP’s fortress since 1999 until the 2015 governorship election when electorate of the council voted overwhelmingly for the APC.

    The areas won by PDP had been its strongholds, just as the whole state was, until recently when the APC and surprisingly the LP’s Third Force made incursions into its (PDP’s) territories in Ogbia and YELGA.

    Despite the inroads made by the APC into Bayelsa East in recent times, PDP won the last presidential election in Brass and Nembe where it has also wielded influence in previous dispensations. However, the situation may change this time round as the candidate of the APC is both paternally and maternally from the two councils.

    These show that the voting strength of the local government areas will matter a lot in the November 11 poll, and the parties/candidates will fiercely scramble for huge-winning votes in the areas having largest number of voters.

    However, given that the governorship election is more of grassroots election than presidential election, the voters’ interest and ethnic sentiments may come to play, even though Bayelsa is a homogenous Ijaw state.

    Although new patterns of advanced vote trading mar sincere voting, the degree of voter turnout, given sensitisation by partisan and non-partisan individuals and organisations, peaceful election and transparency on the part of the INEC will be crucial factors to determine who wins Bayelsa’s governorship election on Saturday, November 11.

    The battle for the exalted seat of governor of the state may be among the PDP, APC and LP, all other things being equal.

    Candidates’ strongholds and battleground councils

    Going by projections by the electorate, political analysts and observers, the candidates of the three leading political parties in the state — the PDP, APC and LP have their strongholds in some local government areas.

    Political pundits are of the view that the governorship election is more grassroots-oriented than the presidential election as the voters’ interest and ethnic sentiments may come to play despite the fact that Bayelsa is a homogenous Ijaw state.

    Political observers opined that the incumbent governor and candidate of the PDP, Senator Douye Diri, who is from Sampou in Kolokuma/Opokuma LGA, will record overwhelming victory in KOLGA, Sagbama and Ekeremor.

    But in other LGAs including Yenagoa, it is believed that he would perform average but will not have upper hand in those councils. However, he is still a man to beat in the November 11 election.

    The candidate of the APC, Chief Timipre Sylva, is believed to have a strong hold in Bayelsa East comprising Nembe, Brass and Ogbia LGAs.

    Sylva, whose running mate, Great Joshua MacIver, is from Southern Ijaw, is also favoured to win SILGA. Therefore, the ex-minister is also a man to beat in the poll.

    As for the candidate of the LP, Udengs Eradiri, who hails from Yenagoa, he boasts of youths’ support across the LGAs. He is favoured to spring surprises in YELGA, Ogbia and SILGA.

    The 47-year-old engineer, whose running mate is a retired military officer, is considered as the third force and the political pendulum might swing to his favour.

  • Imo election: Litmus test for Uzodimma

    Imo election: Litmus test for Uzodimma

    Several factors would determine the outcome of Saturday’s governorship election in Imo State. Governor Hope Uzodimma, who is seeking a second term on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), remains the candidate to beat for many reasons. But, he has to contend with factors such as the insecurity in the state, the clamour for power shift or zoning and the growing popularity of the opposition parties. Correspondent CHRIS NJOKU reports.

    Saturday’s governorship election in Imo State is expected to be a keenly contested one. All eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct the election in a manner to achieve transparency and restore the confidence of the people in the electoral process. Against the background of INEC’s conduct during the just concluded general election, there are question marks over the capacity of the electoral umpire to achieve transparency.

    The commission has however assured that it has concluded all processes that will enable it to conduct a free, fair, transparent and credible election. The commission said about 2.3 million people have collected their permanent voters card (PVC); out of the 2. 42 million registered voters.

    Elections will take place in 4,720 polling units out of the total number of 4,758 polling units, according to the commission. It added that there will be no elections in 38 polling units where voter registration did not take place due to insecurity. So far, INEC has concluded 11 activities out of the 13 on their programme. The two outstanding activities are the last day of the campaign and the election itself.

    Eighteen candidates have been cleared to contest the election. The prominent ones are the incumbent Governor Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Samuel Anyanwu of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Senator Athan Achonu of the Labour Party (LP).

    The forthcoming off-cycle governorship election has put Imo State in the spotlight.  Some of the issues that will determine the outcome of the election are personalities, power of incumbency, strength of the political parties, insecurity, voter participation and zoning.

    Personality:

    Personality may well be one of the biggest factors that would determine the outcome of the election. It is important, given that Imo voters have emphasised during this election cycle that they want candidates who are perceived as honest, caring, and competent.

    Uzodimma:

    Governor Uzodimma’s performance in office in the last three and half years, particularly in the area of road construction and his campaign strategy are key factors in the election.

    Anyanwu:

    Senator Anyanwu is also the PDP national secretary. His popularity and some of his campaign promises, such as that of revamping the healthcare system by providing adequate facilities and equipment, as well as training and retraining of healthcare workers could also be pivotal in determining the outcome of the election.

    Achonu:

    The LP candidate’s popularity and some of his campaign promises, such as conducting local government elections within six and the idea of 45 per cent inclusion of women in his government could be an advantage in the contest.

    Power of incumbency:

    The biggest factor that may propel Governor Uzodimma’s re-election is his power of incumbency. The power of incumbency is a big factor in elections in this clime. This is such that it will take a lot for a candidate of an opposition party to unseat a sitting governor in Nigeria.

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    The ruling APC is well entrenched in the nooks and crannies of Omo State; it controls 25 out of the 27 local governments.

    Strength of the parties:

    The three major parties in the election have suffered setbacks due to intrigues and internal party crises. Imo State has a history of political campaigns that have been characterized by intrigues and internal crises within political parties. Disputes or lack of it within the major parties in this contest can, therefore, be one of the biggest factors that could determine the outcome of the election. This includes disagreements over candidate selection, party leadership, and policy positions.

    The majority of the parties in the race have been weakened by crises emanating from their governorship primaries because of a lack of ability to manage such internal conflicts effectively. This is likely to impact strongly on the outcome of the election.

    Voter participation:

    The number of voters that turn out to vote on election day usually determines the outcome of an election. In this particular case, Imo has a history of voter apathy. A civil society organization, Yiaga Africa, recently observed that some parts of the state, including Orlu, Orsu, Ehime Mbano, Oru East, Oru West and Okigwe Local Government Areas are particularly noted for voter apathy.

    This is because they are prone to violence as a result of security challenges in the state. In some cases, violence and insecurity can prevent people from voting. In others, people can be intimidated into voting for a candidate against their wishes. So, the insecurity in the state could adversely affect the conduct of the election.

    Imo State has been a battleground in recent times, with both the ruling and the opposition parties winning and losing interchangeably in different elections.

    Zoning:

    The raging debate on zoning is another crucial factor that may affect the outcome of Saturday’s election in Imo State. It is centred around which senatorial district should produce the next governor. There has been a clamour by political leaders for the governorship position to be zoned to the Imo East Senatorial District this time around. But, it remains a contentious issue because there are disagreements among political stakeholders over which zone should produce the next governor.

    The Imo Charter of Equity, which was initiated in 1999 and truncated in 2011 is meant to clear the path for a smooth transfer and rotation of the office of governor between the three senatorial zones of Okigwe, Orlu, and Owerri. But, it has not. The stakeholders of the Owerri Senatorial District, for instance, have rejected the new charter, alleging that it was being foisted on the state by the incumbent governor who hails from the Orlu zone that has produced the governor in the last 20 years. They argue that Okigwe has tasted the seat for four years while Owerri zone has only occupied the seat for seven months.

    Uzodimma has challenged the leaders of Owerri zone to unite and forge a common front to enable them to succeed him. He has pledged to implement the Imo Charter of Equity after his second term. As a result, he has enjoined them to back him to secure his second term. Some analysts believe that the endorsement the governor has received from the Owerri zone may swing the pendulum in his favour. So, the zoning debate may play a significant role in the election, as people may turn out to be either for or against the incumbent governor.

    Overall, Saturday’s governorship election is likely to be shaped by a range of other factors, including those related to security, the economy, and infrastructure. The incumbent governor’s record on these issues is likely to tip the scale in his favour.

  • Fugitives in India, big shots in Nigeria

    Fugitives in India, big shots in Nigeria

    • Sandesara brothers hunted at home take over Nigerian oil sector
    • Why we couldn’t extradite them, says former AGF Malami

     There is a thin line between diplomacy and indiscretion, and Nigeria skirts its borders. No thanks to the Federal Government’s dealings with Indian fugitives, Nitin and Chetankumar Sandesara, the country flirts with the ‘pious’ frauds of friendship. The Sandesaras are driving Nigeria’s oil aspirations at a time when multinationals, ExxonMobil and Shell, are quitting the nation’s oil fields. Shell, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil cite theft, oil spills, insecurity, and corruption as their reasons for leaving. And so far, ExxonMobil has vigorously shopped for a buyer for its $1.2 billion shallow-water assets in the country.

    Against the backdrop of their impending exit, the Sandesaras’ Lagos-based Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) has emerged as a major player in Nigeria’s oil sector. Arguably the largest independent stakeholder in the industry, SEEPCO flourishes at a time Nigeria seeks to increase its daily oil output by over 60% to 2.6 million barrels by 2027.

    It all looks good from the distance, as the Indian duo cut a perfect portrait of enterprising siblings whose industry establishes as a driving force of Nigerian oil and gas.

    But for a snag. The Sandesaras are wanted in India for defrauding public sector banks of over $1.7 billion in 2017. About $2.1 billion, revealed India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

    Thus while India hunts them as criminals, accusing them of perpetrating “one of the largest economic scams in the country,” (Bloomberg), Nigeria courts the Sandesaras like dearly loved brides.

    The Indian authorities behold the pair’s growing influence in abject mortification, ruing their growth from frantic fugitives to virtuoso magnates adept at “state capture” of influential segments of Nigeria’s political class.

    A staff of the Indian High Commission marvelled at Sandesara’s meteoric rise in Nigeria and berated the government for granting them a safe haven and cuddling them. She said, “Everywhere they go, they establish their influence. It is the Sandesara magic. You can’t fight them. If you do, you cannot win. They will win you over by hook or crook. If you dare to go against them, they will reduce you. The choice is yours.”

    Of course, many choose to be won over. Thus the brothers’ overwhelming influence from India to Albania and Nigeria. There is no gainsaying the reach of the Sandesara magic in Nigeria. Aside from contracting their Sterling Oil group to exploit the recently discovered oil reserves in the Niger Delta, the Federal Government has reportedly granted the Sandesaras Nigerian citizenship of the country.

     Anatomy of a scam

    But why are the Sandesaras hunted back home in India? Findings revealed that they fled their homeland six years ago after their Gujarat-based business empire was accused of manipulating the balance sheets of Sterling Biotech, their flagship company. So, they induced banks to sanction loans worth more than $700 million.

    Further probe revealed that about $1.08 billion more was sanctioned to Sandesara Group’s overseas entities from foreign branches of Indian banks.

    State-run Indian lenders such as the State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Union Bank of India extended credit lines to their Nigerian oil business, according to India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

    Investigations by India’s Enforcement Directorate and the CBI established that the Sandesaras set up over 300 shell companies in India and abroad, which they used to divert and misuse loan funds. According to the agencies, these shell firms were controlled by the Sandesaras through dummy directors, who were employees of other firms in the Sterling Group. Fake sales and purchases were shown between the shell firms to divert loans, inflate earnings and apply for more loans.

    Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s government accused the brothers of absconding after defrauding public banks of more than $1.7 billion.

    Before the unravelling

    En route to infamy, the Sandesaras were the poster boys of affluence. Just before they became the subjects of non-bailable warrants, they scored frequent fixtures on global wealth lists and became tabloid darlings with their star-studded parties.

    Tracing their evolution before they were accused of defrauding a consortium of banks led by state-owned Andhra Bank, ThePrint of India described the Sandesaras’ journey to acclaim as a toast to the success of middle-class ambition.

    The narrative goes: The brothers, Nitin and Chetan Sandesara both pursued a bachelor’s degree in commerce in the 1980s. Nitin had started practice as a chartered accountant in Mumbai when he and Chetan made their first foray into business with a tea company, also in the 1980s.

    In March 1985, they reportedly got associated with a Mumbai-based trading firm called Pluto Exports & Consultants. Within four years, Nitin emerged as the chairman of the firm. But it was in 1991 that ‘Sterling,’ the name Sandesara companies bear, sprouted in the brothers’ lexicon and the firm was rechristened Sterling Tea and Industries.

    According to a fact sheet available on India’s National Stock Exchange website, the company further changed its name to Sterling Biotech. The tea business reportedly failed to flourish, but the brothers went on to become big players in the pharmaceutical sector after they got into the manufacture of gelatin, a gelling agent used in several drugs.

    It was the gelatin business that earned them their breakthrough and set them on sure footing to build the Sandesara empire.

    Sterling Biotech emerged from renaming Sterling Tea and Industries and the two brothers started diversifying their business into pharmaceuticals, machines and later oil and ports.

     The unravelling

    While their gelatin business grew through the 1990s attaining a six per cent share in the global gelatin business, the Sandesara brothers couldn’t break into the big league until their foray into the oil sector.

    Thus the siblings grew their tea business into a sprawling conglomerate valued at around $7 billion by the early 2010s. Their empire, spanning engineering, oil and gas, healthcare, and one of the world’s largest manufacturing plants of pharmaceutical-grade gelatin, was funded by a “well-calculated economic fraud” that left the group owing more than 140 billion rupees ($1.71 billion) to public lenders including the Union Bank of India, State Bank of India, and Bank of Baroda, the CBI told India’s Supreme Court in 2022.

    Among the accusations levelled against them include the use of “false and fabricated documents” to secure bank loans and the diversion of funds overseas. The same lenders also provided credit lines to the entity that owned the Nigerian oil business, the CBI said in a December 2019 charge sheet.

    State-backed lenders, including Bank of India, won two judgments from UK courts — in 2018 and 2021 — ordering Sandesara companies providing services to Sterling Oil to pay almost $60 million after they defaulted on loans.

    The Indian Enforcement Directorate (ED), which investigates money laundering and forex violation cases, equally sought in 2019, to seize the brothers’ overseas assets, including a Nigerian oil field, four drilling rigs and a Gulfstream aircraft. The group’s flagship business Sterling Biotech Ltd was sold to California-based alt-dairy firm Perfect Day Inc. in November for about $78 million in a transaction approved by India’s bankruptcy court. (Business Day).

    Following a petition by the Sandesaras to repress the CBI and ED cases against them, India’s Supreme Court paused proceedings last year. The brothers said they wanted to reach a financial resolution with creditors. But the investigating agencies maintained that any settlement “cannot absolve the criminal liability of the accused.”

    The Sandesaras protested to the court that they were declared as fugitives in a “grossly illegal manner” claiming that their Indian companies have repaid more than was disbursed to them in loans. They alleged that they were targets of a witch-hunt, claiming that the CBI and ED’s “sole aim is to browbeat, harass, harangue and humiliate” them.

    They also accused Indian Prime Minister Modi’s government of prosecuting a vendetta against them because of their ties to opposition and Muslim politicians, according to media reports that cite their filings in other court cases.

    Hunted at home, VIPS abroad

    Despite the magnitude of allegations against the duo, the Federal Government under the immediate past administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari allegedly refused India’s request to extradite them.

    They subsequently applied for Nigerian citizenship, according to India’s CBI. Their application was reportedly presented during a cabinet meeting in Abuja and it was reportedly granted because it enjoyed “backing from above.”

    The Gujarati businessmen, who fled India in 2017 and ventured into the Nigerian oil sector about 20 years ago, denied defrauding their lenders claiming they are victims of political persecution.

    Sandesara Group’s Nigerian arm Sterling Global Oil Resources Ltd in 2004-2005 won a small area of 29 sq. km for exploration in Nigeria via a successful bid. The company claimed to have a licence to explore and produce crude oil from four onshore blocks with a total acreage of almost 2,000 sq. km, with Shell and Chevron as neighbours.

    In November 2011, the company celebrated the production of one million barrels of Brent crude from Nigeria at its Vadodara headquarters. The company had set an ambitious target of ramping up production from 10,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels in a period of five years.

    “When we decided to get into the oil business in early 2001-2002, we wanted to make it big and not remain on the fringe,” Nitin Sandesara, the group’s chairman, said in an interview in November 2011.

    And they certainly made it big. While they celebrated their Nigerian success, their fortunes declined in India, where the unravelling of the Sandesara empire began.

    The group’s flagship company Sterling Biotech Ltd, a leading producer of gelatin in India, lost almost 40% of its value on BSE after the gelatin manufacturing facility in Gujarat was closed for about nine months due to pollution issues.

    Thanks to friends in high places

    About two decades since the Sandesaras ventured into the Nigerian oil sector, they have established themselves as a force to be reckoned with; so extensive is their influence that the Nigerian government turned down India’s requests to extradite them claiming that the allegations against them “appeared to be political in nature,” according to a letter published by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP).

    Despite the allegations levelled against them, the Sandesaras have been allowed to invest in projects in Nigeria and Albania. This was made easy by their acquisition of the countries’ citizenship.

    Despite the family’s wanted status, they were swiftly granted Albanian citizenship and received their new passports in February 2018. In Albania, where the Sandesaras and their local partner planned to invest over $33 million into construction projects, not only were some members of the family granted citizenship, but one brother (Nitin) was even made an honorary consul. A month after they were charged in India, Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reportedly wrote to the Albanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asking for Nitin Sandesara, who had obtained Albanian citizenship, to be appointed honorary consul to Nigeria, citing his “effort to expand the friendship” between Nigeria and Albania and “the need to provide [an] avenue for boosting trade and investment relations between the two countries.”

    Albanian authorities immediately began the process, and Nitin received the designation in January 2019, a year after he and his brother received their Albanian citizenship.

    Border data show they have continued to visit the country (Albania)  freely, despite requests from India for their extradition and an ongoing money laundering investigation into their Albanian investments.

    Further findings revealed that high-ranking Albanian and Nigerian officials helped the Sandesaras evade repeated attempts to extradite them to India. Police reports, court documents, interviews, and flight data obtained by reporters show how these officials enable them to move freely and run their businesses while at large.

    The Office of Nigeria’s Attorney-General reportedly rebuffed India’s request for their extradition, arguing that the case appeared to be “politically motivated” thus affirming speculation that the brothers have found shelter in Nigeria, along with lucrative business opportunities.

    In 2011, SEEPCO partnered with Nigerian-owned Allenne Energy Ltd. on a concession licence to exploit an oil field worth over $3 billion. Nigeria’s then-president Goodluck Jonathan named SEEPCO as one of the country’s top 100 businesses in 2014 even as allegations of fraud festered against its owners back home in India.

    In June 2018, Nigeria’s judiciary also handed down a ruling that reinforced the narrative that the Sandesaras had faced persecution by Indian authorities. The decision was made as part of a suit filed by Allenne Energy to prevent information about the Nigerian oil concession from being shared with any law enforcement agencies or banks in India or Nigeria.

    Allenne’s suit alleged that the Indian banks were acting with “ulterior motives” and asked the court for a declaration that the “change of government in India, as well as the government policies and political and religious victimization and persecution of [SEEPCO], constitute force majeure capable of raising concerns by [Allenne Energy] in protecting its interest.”

    A judge in Nigeria’s Federal High Court reportedly agreed, writing that the Sandesara brothers and their families were being “targeted by Indian government agencies” for their political and religious beliefs.

    “It would be inappropriate for this court to allow any Nigerian company to be economically imperiled, because of political vendetta of Indian Government and banks,” the judge’s statement read. “Nigeria is keen on keeping and protecting the present legitimate investors and to even encourage more to come into the economy.”

    Later, in 2019, Nigeria’s justice ministry made a similar argument when it rejected a request from India to extradite members of the Sandesara family, citing its power to refuse requests if it believes that the offence is “political in nature.”

    Bolstered by the support of the Nigerian government, the Sandesaras enjoy a robust stake in the country’s oil and gas sector.

    Their franchises, Sterling Oil Exploration & Production Co. (SEEPCO) and Sterling Global Oil Resources Ltd taxes contributed two per cent of the Nigerian government’s revenue, Nitin said in 2019.

    The Sandesaras’ Nigerian franchises have grown in leaps and bounds as they extract around 50,000 barrels of crude a day in the Niger Delta today, under contracts with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The acquisition of another unit this year is expected to raise its daily output to above 100,000 barrels.

    But how is their business flourishing at a time ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies are pulling out of Nigeria citing vandalisation and theft, oil spills, and corruption?

    A major advantage enjoyed by Sterling Oil is its access to the sea route. The franchise exports crude via barges to a floating storage vessel in the Atlantic Ocean. This has so far preserved its merchandise and guaranteed its profits in a hostile business environment.

     From the office of the Attorney General…

    On May 25, 2023, while interrogating the former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Mallami, on the saga, the Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Upstream), Federal House of Representatives, Mark Gbillah, stated that “There is information at our disposal, corroborated by the Indian High Commission, that the Office of the Attorney General was said to have prevented the Indian government from the extradition of some individuals who have been given very juicy oil and gas contracts in Nigeria, the owners of the Sterling Group, Nitin and Chetankumar Sandesara, his wife and daughter.

    “We have a copy of the letter from the Indian High Commission that these individuals are fugitives from their country – because they defrauded banks of billions of dollars and that they were informed that they had taken refuge in Nigeria. But when their extradition request was made to the Nigerian authorities, the Office of the Attorney General said it was politically motivated. So, he refused to honour that extradition request even though we have treaties with them, and even though there are United Nations (UN) conventions in this regard.

    “What informs our concern is that we are also aware that this same company is now the operator of the Kolmani oil field and other oil and gas contracts…So, we do not understand how the Nigerian government would be shielding these individuals and allowing them to do business in the country. We also have a copy of the letter where the Indian government clearly advised that they do not want these individuals (Sandesaras) to be given any kind of status here. I am hearing, but we are not certain about it that they now have Nigerian passports.  They are allowed to thrive and do business here while they are wanted in their own country.”

    In his reaction to Gbillah’s probe, Mallami faulted the procedure, stating that there are protocols to follow for extradition to be carried out. He said, “When you talk of Indian High Commission, as far as correspondence is concerned, the undertones associated with it are diplomatic. And unfortunately, extradition is a judicial matter; it’s an issue that involves a conflict of laws. And with that background, my conclusion is that the Indian High Commission’s correspondence is not actionable as far as my reaction is concerned. But I will suggest that the committee reconsider, perhaps writing a formal request to the Office of the Attorney General so that we can have a factual response.”

    When Hon. Gbillah responded that the House had forwarded a copy of the extradition request to the Office of the Attorney General, Mallami insisted that he wasn’t aware of the receipt of any such letter.

    He said, “Extradition, fraud, all these are issues that border judicial functions. It is only the judiciary that can now ascertain whether the conduct of an individual is fraudulent or otherwise. Even in our own case as a Ministry, when we receive a request of this nature, of extradition, it’s something we file through the judicial process to obtain the necessary judicial order for extradition.

    “And then there are standards in terms of compliance and expectations in support of the application. Once you do not comply with those elements, there is no way you can initiate the judicial process,” he said, stressing that an official request must be sent to the Ministry of Justice and Office of the Attorney General in line with the established tradition of correspondence. Only then can his office issue an appropriate response and only then his issues effectively join issues for the guidance of the investigative committee.”

    Corroborating him, the Permanent Secretary/Solicitor-General of the Federation, Beatrice Jedy-Agba, stated that the Ministry of Justice hadn’t received any such correspondence from the House Committee.

    She said, “It was not sent to us in the Ministry…We do not have an official copy of that letter. And I think that it would be mischievous for diplomatic correspondence to be between the (Indian) government and our National Assembly. That’s undermining our integrity as a nation.

    “And I would believe that if such correspondence was received by the National Assembly, it should have been forwarded to us. I don’t know…Did it come through the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs? We didn’t get anything. And we are talking about political undertones, so it’s very important that letters come through proper custody. We don’t have it. If we do, we would respond legally to the issue. We are not responsible for giving oil contracts. So, we are not able to speak to those issues. So, it’s very important, if we get the letter, we will respond appropriately.”

     As Indian authorities deflect

    Attempts to get the Indian authorities to comment on the Sandesaras’ saga proved abortive as the Indian High Commission declined The Nation’s request for its take on the issue, claiming it would be wrong to speak on a case that is in court.

    An official of the embassy, Pranay Sinher Sir, said, “Regarding your request, please note that we would be more than happy to talk about India-Nigeria relations, trade and economy, culture et al. However, on the topic (Sandesara brothers’ saga) that you had mentioned at the Yoga Day venue, we are not in a position to offer any comments since the matter is sub judice (that is, being examined in court).”

    Deflecting commentary on the consequences of the Sandesaras’ prominent stake in the country’s oil sector vis-a-vis India-Nigeria relations, the Indian Embassy said it is ready to discuss every issue that concerns trade and economy and Nigeria-India relations but not on the Sandesaras brothers.

    Efforts to get the Sandesaras reaction proved abortive. The Nation received no response to questions sent to them as of press time.

     Beyond diplomatese…

    Beyond the diplomatese tendered by the Indian Consulate in respect of the Sandesara brothers, Nigeria’s posturing on the issue could hurt bilateral relations between the two countries, if not well managed.

    Presently, India is Nigeria’s largest trading partner and Nigeria is India’s largest trading partner in Africa. The bilateral trade volume between Nigeria and India has touched $15 billion for the financial period 2021-2022 which represents an increase of 69.80%.

    This is despite an understandable fall in crude oil imports by India due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Bilateral trade has also risen strongly from $8.8 billion in 2020-21 to $14.95 billion in the year 2021-22. While India is one of the largest buyers of Nigerian crude oil, over 135 companies are owned and/or operated by Indians or persons of Indian origin in Nigeria.

    There is no gainsaying the Sandesaras’ saga requires tactful engagement between the Nigerian and Indian authorities.

    There is so much at stake. The enormous goodwill subsisting between the two countries can invariably be felt in interactions with their governments and civil societies.

    Historically, both countries have been at the forefront of the international anti-colonial and anti-apartheid struggle and closely collaborated in various international fora. The presence of a large Indian expatriate community of about 50,000, the largest in West Africa, adds value to the importance of the long-standing relationship between the two countries.

     Prospects through infamy

    While the saga of how the Sandesaras evaded justice has grabbed headlines in India for years, it recently became a subject of fascination to the Nigerian press.

    Notwithstanding the nature of press mention, greater prospects manifest for the Sandesaras’ SEEPCO and Sterling Global in the wake of Nigeria’s discovery of around one billion barrels of oil in the arid northeast, about 1,000 kilometres (621 miles) away from the crude-rich Niger Delta,

    Sterling Oil conveniently emerges as Nigeria’s major partner in the multi-billion dollar project thus improving the Sandesaras’ stake and prominence in the oil sector.

    Even as host communities to the brothers’ oil plants in Imo, Anambra and Akwa Ibom States protest and accuse them of non-adherence to Nigeria’s local content law, among other infractions, the future looks rosier for the brothers as newly elected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu push profitably transform Nigeria’s hydrocarbons sector.

    In the ensuing dispensation, the Indian siblings’ oil franchises are assured of more lucrative innings — especially as international oil giants such as ExxonMobil and Shell pull out of Nigeria’s oil fields.

    For the love of the con

    Nigerians love being conned or being part of a con if it can be done in a style that is both grand and entertaining. The Sandesara brothers have learnt to exploit that.

    Between 2017 and 2018, while investigating agencies probed criminal cases against Nitin Sandesara and his group, Sterling Biotech, for an alleged bank loan fraud of over $2.1 billion, Nitin Sandesara, who had fled India, was busy collecting character certificates from Nigerian banks and solicitors to float a string of companies in the British Virgin Island (BVI) to expand his oil business, Pandora Papers records show.

    “We consider Nitin Jayantilal Sandesara as being financially reliable and of good moral standing from our dealings with him,” said Union Bank of Nigeria Plc in a February 2018 reference letter to Fidelity Corporate Service Ltd. Another letter of March 2018 from a Nigerian law firm attested that Nitin Sandesara, to the best of their knowledge had never been involved in bankruptcy, criminal or similar proceedings.

    Such letters were used by Sandesara to set up at least half a dozen companies in the BVI: Constant Capital and Investment Ltd; Prime Finance and Capital Alliance Ltd; Sterling Petroleum Trading Ltd; West Africa Capital Limited; African Capital Alliance Ltd and Continental Capital Alliance Ltd.

    There is no underestimating the sway of the Sandesaras, despite the grievous charges against them at home and abroad. But while India hunts them as fugitives across international borders, friends in Nigeria’s high places fete and tool the brothers’ storied influence.

    “Extradition, fraud, all these are issues that border on judicial functions. It is only the judiciary that can now ascertain whether the conduct of an individual is fraudulent or otherwise,” argued former AGF Malami in response to a probe by the Federal House of Representatives, on the Sandesaras’ botched extradition.

    That was in May 2023, at the twilight of the Buhari presidency. Enter President Tinubu. It’s a new dispensation. Would Nigeria continue to nourish relations with India through the wrong end of a diplomatic spigot?

  • Parties and their bouquet of promises

    Parties and their bouquet of promises

    Ahead of the 2023 general elections, Nigerians, and analysts, eagerly awaited the manifestos of the major political parties and their candidates – the published declaration of intentions; those special documents that contain the set of policies that the parties stand for and would implement if elected.

    The elections have come and gone, but since the manifesto is a promise, an implied contract between the people and political party or candidate on which basis votes were sought, citizens will be keenly watching to see if all, or how much of the promises, will be fulfilled.

    Here are the highlights of the manifestos of the four major candidates and their parties: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

    President-elect Tinubu/APC:

     Tinubu’s manifesto is titled ‘Renewed Hope 2023: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria’. The 80-page programme encompasses solutions to challenges in critical sectors.

    Building on the Buhari Administration’s accomplishments, Tinubu’s agenda seeks to achieve 10 objectives.

    These are:

    Job creation and decent wages for youths as a baseline for creating a better life.

    Manufacturing and invention of goods and services thereby transforming Nigeria from a country of mere consumers to creators.

    Less importation and more exportation to strengthen the naira.

    An agricultural policy that promotes productivity and guarantees a decent income for farmers.

    Modernisation and expansion of public infrastructure.

    Harnessing the energy of youths in the digital economy.

    Fully harnessing the potentials of entertainment, culture and tourism towards the abolition of poverty.

    The generation, transmission and distribution of sufficient, affordable electricity.

    Accessible and affordable healthcare, education and housing.

    Adaptive national security architecture and action to obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry and other forms of violent extremism.

    Tinubu accords power much priority in the manifesto. He recognises that the problem of unemployment, under-unemployment and moribund industries are a reflection of the state of the country’s power sector.

    He acknowledged that electricity is key to industrialisation, particularly the revival of the manufacturing sector.

    He believes more employment opportunities will be generated if industries that have closed due to the unconducive atmosphere are revived.

    He also promised to eliminate estimated billing. His administration will ensure that all electricity bills are meter-based while boosting the domestic manufacturing of electricity meters.

    On security, the President-elect believes that the fundamental responsibility of government is to protect the lives and property of its citizens.

    Thus, the APC has promised to mobilise the totality of national security, military and law enforcement assets to protect all Nigerians from danger and the fear of danger.

    The watchword, according to Tinubu, is technology. It should be backed by the enhanced recruitment of personnel.

    The APC/Tinubu manifesto promises to revitalise Ranger or Forest Guard force, giving it the core mandate to monitor, identify, and track the use of forests by any violent or criminal groups.

    Tinubu assured that the Multinational Joint Task Force should be sustained.

    The focus of police reform, if elected, will be the setting up of a community policing structure and maintaining law and order through crime fighting and prevention using high-tech equipment.

    The President-elect proposed a reformed police where personnel will be freed from extraneous duties such as VIP security and guard duties, to be transferred to the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).

    On the economy, the manifesto promises a paradigm shift from the exportation of raw materials and the importation of increasingly expensive finished products.

    To Tinubu, the allocation of revenue between the federal and state governments should be adjusted to give states greater flexibility to foster grassroots economic development.

    He promised that under his leadership, Nigeria will savour an economy that produces more everyday items, both agricultural and manufactured goods.

    Tinubu also promised civil service, fiscal policy and tax reforms to remove loopholes, enhance efficient tax collection, fight corruption and inefficiency and wastage of resources, and streamline agencies.

    On monetary policy and exchange rate, Tinubu said: “Monetary policy must focus on the exchange rate, interest rate and price levels. This trio must serve the objective of fiscal policy, which is broadly shared prosperity.”

    To achieve the goals of agricultural development, Tinubu hopes to pursue the following initiatives:

     Setting up commodity boards to establish minimum prices for strategic crops such as cashew, cocoa, sesame, soya, cassava yam, rubber, okra, palm kernels, groundnut and okra;

    Grain reserves and food storage;

    Rural infrastructural development, irrigation and water catchment, farm cooperatives where feasible, access to finance or low-cost loans, large-scale land clearing;

    Setting up of a Farm Nigeria Project, with a special focus on the river basins throughout the country.

    Atiku/PDP

    Atiku unfolded a five-point developmental agenda encompassing:

    Qualitative education.

    Restructuring to foster federalism and stability.

    A dynamic economy for prosperity

    Safety and security of life and property.

    Unity in diversity.

    Atiku described the proposal as a social contract characterised by short, medium and long-term strategies.

    He said he would provide three million new jobs and lift 10 million Nigerians from poverty annually.

    The candidate promised to provide 25,000 megawatts of power and ensure a refining capacity of two million barrels of crude.

    In the plan titled: “My Covenant with Nigerians,” the former vice president described himself as an experienced, courageous and result-focused leader.

    The 74-page document re-echoed his 2019 manifesto, with a minor adjustment to reflect proposed solutions to post-2019 challenges.

    ‘The Atiku Plan’ promised to provide a distinct economic, political and social development road map “and get Nigeria working again”.

    According to him, at no other time than since 2015 has the poverty in the quality of leadership and governance been worse.

    Atiku said his agenda would be guided by three basic principles:

    Greater private sector participation

    Discontinuation of government monopoly in infrastructure, including refineries, rail transportation and power transmission

    Greater market leverage in price determination and elimination of persistent price distortion due to interventionist exchange rate management policy.

     The PDP flagbearer promised to:

    Increase the Gross Domestic Product per capita from USS2,000 to USS 5 00 by 2030

    Achieve economic diversification, expand the export base in manufacturing, oil and gas

    Build a knowledge-based economy and promote inclusion through job creation and liberation of the poor from poverty.

    Emphasising that power sector reform will be a critical policy priority, Atiku said: “By 2030, Nigeria shall make a giant stride in diversifying its sources of power and delivering up to 25,000 megawatts.”

    Atiku also promised one million housing units through private sector-led effort, 5,000 kilometres of modern railway lines and 70,000 kilometres of paved road network.

    The former vice president said there would be more transparency and efficiency in the management of institutions in the oil and gas sector. He also said all government-owned refineries would be sold and new licences issued for greenfield investment in crude oil refining.

    Atiku said he would reposition education by promoting research in science and technology, a robust healthcare system, vocational education and support for people with special needs.

    The PDP flagbearer promised an all-inclusive governance structure to harness national diversity and a just environment where the rights of citizens would be protected.

    On corruption, he said his government would strengthen policies and measures for detecting corruption through a strong technology infrastructure that supports the end-to-end operations of governmental businesses for transparency, accountability, efficiency and effectiveness.

    He also promised to enhance whistle-blowing and witness protection policies.

    Obi/LP

    The LP and Obi released a seven-point manifesto entitled ‘Our Pact with Nigeria’. In the 48-page policy document, Obi promised to:

    Secure and unite Nigeria, to manage diversity such that no one is left behind;

    Move Nigeria from consumption to production;

    Embark on comprehensive legal and institutional reforms and practicable restructuring measures;

    Fight corruption, enthrone rule of law, and an all-inclusive and effective government;

    Prioritise Human Capital Development through robust investments in STEM education;

    Boost health, and infrastructural development, with emphasis on wealth creation, distribution and sustainable development.”

    Obi promised to: “Engineer the transition of Nigeria from fossil fuel dependency to climate and eco-friendly energy use; pursue holistic poverty eradication with emphasis on agricultural revolution through effective utilisation of our vast arable lands, particularly in Northern Nigeria, and erase Nigeria’s categorisation as the poverty capital of the world.”

    The LP candidate vowed to improve access to finance, particularly to MSMEs, youths and women, to significantly reduce unemployment and insecurity.

    He promised to ensure that in policy and practice, governance will be made more inclusive, cost-effective, transformative, and less transactional (No more sharing of the national wealth by a few).

    Obi also said his administration would:

    Ensure that Nigeria’s diversity will be leveraged to give women and youths, the aged and persons with disabilities, an unfettered voice in governance, and a renewed sense of patriotism and faith in Nigeria;

    Ensure that Nigeria is progressively better governed through legislative, executive, and judicial reforms so that the Constitutional separation of powers among the three arms of government is properly followed and the three tiers of government are allowed to function independently and jointly for a more inclusive and sustainable Nigeria.

    Top on the list is Obi’s plan to secure Nigeria, end banditry and insurgency; unite the country and manage “our diversity”.

    The former Anambra State governor promised to move Nigeria from an oil-dependent economy to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) with massive investment in new technologies.

    Also, he planned to expand physical infrastructure with a focus on critical sectors like power, multi-modal transportation, and gas pipeline, through efficient public-private partnership (PPP) reforms.

    NNPP/Kwankwaso:

    Kwankwaso unveiled a 60-page blueprint for governance. The document is entitled “My Pledges To You”.

    He promised to listen more and allow Nigerians to dictate the tune of his administration.

    On leadership and justice, the former Kano governor promised to provide patriotic and competent leadership that is guided by the seven time-tested principles of public life: selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty, and leadership by example.

    He promised to tackle insecurity using a “special approach”.

    “In our arrangement, we shall use the military and the police optimally to ensure that terrorism, banditry, kidnapping-for-ransom, militancy, insurgency, oil theft and bunkering, communal clashes, and all other forms of security breaches that are making our country unsafe are tackled head-on and brought to a permanent stop,” the manifesto reads.

    “The size of the Nigerian Armed Forces will be built to about one million active service men and women.

    “This entails recruiting an additional 750 thousand more personnel into the armed forces.

    “The size of the Nigerian Police will also be built to about one million active service men and women.

    “This will bring the police-to-citizen ratio to 1:220 (much better than the UN-recommended minimum of 1:450).”

    On the economy, he said his administration would run an emergency rescue plan to end poverty and create wealth, protect the citizens’ savings, restore fiscal discipline, and improve crude oil and gas production.

    Kwankwaso said he would also improve non-oil revenue, target inflation, save the naira from the current “uncontrolled devaluation”, and limit capital flight from the country.

    “We shall expand the tax base and the tax net by ensuring that businesses that are actively avoiding and/or evading tax are brought into the tax system.

    “We shall create the enabling environment where trade, investments and businesses will blossom and manufacturing (re-industrialisation) will be the pivot upon which the Nigerian economy will stand.

    “The economy will be actively diversified. Aggressive efforts will be made to strengthen the non-oil sectors, hone the potentialities, harness the opportunities and harvest the yields for the good of all Nigerians.”

    According to the document, fiscal discipline will be restored by reducing the size of the Federal Government’s recurrent expenditure to bring down the level of deficit.

    Kwankwaso said that given the level of the deficit, the capital budgets will be overhauled to improve value for money by prioritising only key infrastructure projects that will have a positive impact on production and competitiveness.

    On restructuring, he said his administration “will listen to Nigerians”.

    “We are not going to be rigid on restructuring. Whatever Nigerians want will be given to them.”

    Kwankwaso said Nigeria had lost billions to fuel subsidies, hence, his administration would assess past subsidy regimes in the overall interest of Nigeria.

    “More and more jobs will be created through targeted investments, special accelerated projects and programmes,” the document reads.

    The Kwankwaso would have prevented corruption by running a transparent and open government, using the “latest advanced technologies to capture, analyse, and share data to prevent, detect, and deter corrupt behaviour; expose corrupt activities and risks that may otherwise remain hidden”.

    Another anti-graft agenda in the manifesto is to keep the public sector honest, transparent and accountable, as well as ensure that public sector employees act in the public interest.

    On Education, Kwankwaso said his administration would treat it as an investment, not an expenditure.

    He said his administration would mop up the 20 million out-of-school children in the next four years, and review provisions of the Universal Basic Education Act with emphasis on gender equity in primary and secondary school enrolment.

    One promise that resonated with many Nigerians is this: “For our administration, no Nigerian child shall be denied the opportunity to write WAEC, NECO, JAMB, etc., because of their inability to pay exorbitant registration/examination fees.

    “These examinations shall be free and all application forms for admission into tertiary education institutions (TEIs) shall also be free.”

    On health, Kwankwaso promised reforms, and to expand access to medical education while more professional personnel will be trained to serve communities.

    He also said in conjunction with states and local government councils, free natal and maternity healthcare services would be provided for families.

    On agriculture, Kwankwaso pledged to revolutionise farming practices by investing in technology, training, and extension work “with the objective of attaining national food security as well as capturing a substantial market share of food in the African continent”.

  • ONE BIG CARNIVAL ON THE HUSTINGS

    ONE BIG CARNIVAL ON THE HUSTINGS

    • The frills, thrills of 2023 elections
    • Enter Naira crisis, legal acrobatics

    On February 25, Nigerians trooped to the polling units, in frantic spirit, to elect a new president. Grappling with crushing naira scarcity, the excited horde banked on the ballot to cash their dreams of reprieve.

    Their hopes rode on the wind like a cavalcade of whims. In Nigeria, every election is a carnival. And it’s been four years since the last pageant; then, a manic squall lolled and rifled through the land.

    Likewise, the 2023 polls dawned scented with prospects, partisan charm, and slogans; the streets huffed with expectations of the people. Never had electorate ire become so banal; spruced with the anticipation of clashing mobs, voters waving party flags self-identifying as Obidients, the ATIKULATED, and the BATIFIED, engaged in a conscious rite of citizenship to elect Nigeria’s new president and federal lawmakers.

    En route to the polls, Nigeria contracted and splayed to a blitz of pomp, adrenaline and wild drama as political actors clashed in a frenzied surge for votes.

    From the tenor of the campaign to the sweep of votes, the 2023 election triggered an outlook of something sinister, and then calm; in the end, every permutation pointed to the fact that the eventual winner of the presidential polls may no longer stir the jubilance deserving of the keenly contested office.

    In the most wide-open presidential election Nigeria has seen since 1979, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 8,794,726 votes to defeat 17 other candidates including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (6,984,520 votes) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former Anambra Governor, Peter Obi (6,101,533 votes) of the Labour Party (LP).

    Politics not war

    President-elect Tinubu, in an apparent show of sportsmanship, extended hands of fellowship to his rival candidates, Atiku and Obi, among others, stressing that, “Political competition must now give way to political conciliation and inclusive governance. During the election, you may have been my opponent but you were never my enemy. In my heart, you are my brothers…Any challenge to the electoral outcome should be made in a court of law, and not in the streets.”

    He also charged his supporters “to let peace reign and tensions fade. We ran a principled, peaceful, and progressive campaign. The aftermath of our campaign must be as benign.”

    The new president-elect described physical and verbal assaults as “unacceptable and antithetical to democratic ethos” stressing that elections should be a celebration of our maturing democracy and freedom of choice and ought not to be moments of grief.

    “My appeal is for us to rise above our differences, which, in reality, are fewer than the valued strings that bind us together as a people irrespective of the circumstances of our births,” he said.

    Tinubu’s admonishment clearly captured the mood and tenor of partisanship pre and post-election.

    The keen nature of the contest highlighted the feelings of an electorate grappling with acute divisions stirred along party lines, ethnic and religious differences.

    Those feelings were tempered by hard times resulting from biting economic hardship and insecurity. While outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari now appears less a saviour than he was in 2015, particularly to opposition PDP, LP, and their loyalists, staunch supporters of Buhari and his ruling APC see him as a patriot and human being with virtues and imperfection, accomplishment, and failures. He did his best given the prevailing circumstances, they firmly intone.

    With the successful conclusion of the 2023 polls, however, Buhari’s leadership transformed the electoral transition into something more mature and durable thus stirring confidence in what a progressively diverse, tolerant, and unprejudiced Nigeria can achieve.

    It is a view that dispels the fears of those who see the country as perpetually in decline and bereft of hope. On his part, President-elect Tinubu commended Buhari and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for guaranteeing a transparent election and stressed that his leadership will restore Nigeria’s glory. But like his victory, this would be no walk in the park.

    Throughout the campaign trail, each candidate endeavoured to do what no Nigerian politician had attempted in a generation, with defiant albeit varied flair: to truly connect with the people.

    While Tinubu expanded his campaign message to address issues that align with the hopes and interests of all classes of Nigerians, Atiku operated from the fringes deploying his usual tactics, targeting ethnic leaders, social and political influencers.

    Obi, on his part, exploited the divisions of the present, deploying rhetoric that magnified new levels of resentment and fear among the country’s youths and religious divide. His jarring message: “Church, take back your country!” resonated chillingly across the political arena – particularly when Christian leaders and the youths unquestioningly embraced it.

    The latter known for their dislike and dissatisfaction with the incumbent ruling class were easy to manipulate. Whatever anyone thinks of Obi, however, he successfully won over a voter divide that his rivals were too wary or lethargic to exploit: irate youths. Like a slick oil salesman, Obi fed their angst and exploited their inclinations for ethnoreligious dogmatism.

    Some partisan media, entertainers, church leadership, and corporate chiefs lent their weight to Obi’s movement, pushing the narrative favoured by the Obidients, that he was the change Nigeria needed.

    Likewise, certain segments of the artistic community – Nollywood for instance – pitched their tent with Tinubu thus deepening the cracks fostered by divergences in political beliefs.

    Enter Naira crisis…

    A fresh drama occurred when Buhari’s administration backed the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele’s ill-fated naira redesign and naira swap policy; its haphazard implementation just a few weeks before the presidential election raised eyebrows within and outside the ruling party.

    The Emefiele-led CBN mopped up over N2.7 trillion of old notes, returning a measly N300 billion into the economy. The bank afterward set February 10 as the deadline for the validity of the old N200, N500, and N1000 bank notes as legal tender.

    Even though the measure was allegedly meant to prevent vote buying by politicians, everybody smelt a rat; pundits widely interpreted it as a plot to incite the electorate to make protest votes against Tinubu and the ruling APC at the presidential polls.

    Things got to a head as the currency became scarce and Nigerians lamented having to purchase the national currency in the black market. Informal financial players like the Point of Sale (POS) operators made a killing by charging Nigerians outrageous fees for every withdrawal – for instance, a withdrawal of N10,000 attracted a charge of N3,000 vis-a-vis the paltry N200 it attracted before the naira scarcity. And while businesses and ordinary citizens were starved of cash, POS operators enjoyed untrammeled access to the newly designed currency.

    Nigerians marvelled at the invisible conduit between bank staff and the POS operators even as the currency scarcity devastated homes and businesses. In extreme cases, patients died as their families couldn’t access money in the bank to buy their medicines and pay hospital bills.

    Creepy videos of disconsolate customers stripped to full nakedness in bank halls, to protest the lack of access to their money went viral on social media. Against this backdrop, irate customers swore to attack banks if the situation persists.

    Worried by the situation, the governments of Kaduna, Zamfara, and Kogi States filed a case challenging the implementation of the CBN policy at the Supreme Court. And on February 8, the Supreme Court, in an ex parte application brought before it by the three states (Kaduna, Zamfara, Kogi), voided the February 10 deadline set by the CBN for the use of the old denominations of N200, N500, and N1000, as legal tender and further adjourned the matter till February 22.

    Despite the short-lived relief granted to the citizenry by the apex court, the CBN Governor, Emefiele, flagrantly disobeyed the order. At a meeting with members of the diplomatic corps, he insisted that the February 10 deadline was inviolable.

    But the legal imprimatur failed to resolve the controversy; pending the determination of the substantive suit before the Supreme Court as the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, filed a preliminary objection, asking that the case filed by Kaduna, Kogi, and Zamfara States should be dismissed claiming the court lacked jurisdiction to hear the case.

    And to assert his disregard for the Supreme Court ruling, President Buhari in a broadcast on February 16, stated that only N200 notes shall remain legal tender of the outlawed naira denominations. Following his disconcerting silence on the issue, Buhari’s broadcast, rather than giving hope to the citizenry, worsened their apprehension.

    Tinubu, on the other hand, condemned the timing and implementation of the policy while Atiku and Obi – apparently relishing its import for their major rival (Tinubu) – expressed support for the CBN governor-led naira mop up, not minding the impact on the long-suffering masses who were the major victims of the unseasonable policy.

    In time, chaos erupted across Nigeria’s southwest – noted as Tinubu’s political base – as the masses burned and vandalised banks to protest the hardships foisted on them by what they termed an “anti-people policy.”

    That a sitting president could throw his party’s presidential candidate and the man whose loyal support contributed in no small measure to his electoral victory twice – in 2015 and 2019 – resonated chillingly across the political circuit.

    This attracted sympathy for Tinubu in the northern strongholds of the APC, where voters vowed to repay him in kind for his unflinching support and loyalty to one of their own (President Buhari) when it mattered most.

    Amid such high-wired politicking, Tinubu bellowed during a rally in Abeokuta, Ogun State, that even though they had mopped up the currency and caused fuel scarcity, “A ma dibo, a ma wole! (We shall vote; we shall win!)

    And the rest is history. Tinubu went on to win the polls and emerge as Nigeria’s new President-elect. At his victory, all the dominoes started to fall in place; the Supreme Court, on March 3, nullified the ban on the use of the old N200, N500, and N1000 banknotes as legal tenders, stressing that the president’s broadcast of February 16 that only N200 notes should remain legal tender rubbished Nigeria’s democracy and replaced it with autocracy.

    The Supreme Court, therefore, extended the validity of the N200, N500, and N1,000 Naira notes till 31 December.

    A seven-member panel of the court led by John Okoro unanimously directed that the CBN must continue to receive the old notes from Nigerians and declared Buhari’s directive invalid.

    Subsequently, the presidency denied ever backing Emefiele’s macabre naira mop-up. Speaking through a statement by his media assistant, Garba Shehu, President Buhari denied reports that he instructed CBN Governor, Emefiele, and the Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, to disobey court orders.

    On the heel of the presidency’s volte-face, the Emefiele-led CBN acknowledged and bowed to the Supreme Court ruling and instructed all the banks to receive and pay out the hitherto banned naira denominations in consonance with the apex court ruling.

    Never had Nigeria endured such high-octane drama, covert plotting, and execution of caprices of a few political actors to the detriment of over 200 million Nigerians, all in a bid to thwart one candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    The audacity of intent

    In retrospect, it’s difficult to recount all the ways Tinubu remade the game: the kingmaker became king; the godfather triumphed over scripted chaos hurled on his path to thwart his strides into the presidential villa. The APC candidate made charlatans of the pollsters who predicted Obi’s victory.

    The Jagaban Borgu aka Leader of Warriors, decisively shamed and put a lie to fake prophecies screamed from the pulpits by partisan pastors who dreaded his resort to a fellow Muslim, ex-Borno Governor Kashim Shettima, as his running mate.

    In the end, Tinubu’s victory proved that compromised state actors, tribal and religious jingoists would always fail in their charge against a charismatic, detribalised leader.

    His triumph may be measured, however, against his choice of realism over rhetoric. While Obi fervently deployed the latter to fuel the angst of a large swathe of youngsters and religious bigots, using mainstream and new media, Tinubu resorted to a more down-to-earth engagement with the electorate.

    He shunned the debates conducted by vaunted media platforms showing undisguised bias for PDP and LP candidates, Atiku and Obi respectively.

    Instead, he carefully chose his platforms, identified the central issues bothering the grassroots, and then convinced a plurality of voters in the states that mattered that he was the best person to bring change.

    But can Tinubu ever fully deliver the prosperity he promises? Or would he simply gift Nigeria yet another semblance of growth from the margins?

    Pre-election, a recurring theme in his manifesto was his intention to build a new, prosperous country anchored on an enduring economic rejuvenation drive. Titled ‘My Vision for Nigeria,’ Tinubu promises in the document, “A vibrant and thriving democracy and a prosperous nation with a fast-growing industrial base, capable of producing the most basic needs of the people and exporting to other countries of the world.”

    He promised the citizenry access to all their “basic needs, including a safe and secure environment, abundant food, affordable shelter, health care, and quality primary education for all. A nation founded on justice, peace, and prosperity for all.”

    From his inauguration, on May 29, over 200 million Nigerians would expect a magical turnaround of the country’s fortunes as well as their individual and collective fates.

    There is certainly much to be done. And the masses have outgrown, already, the pageantry and pomp of his hard-fought victory.

    President-elect Tinubu staged an upset none of his rivals envisaged. Because of him, the 2023 elections unfurled like the greatest show on earth.

    In Tinubu, many who despaired have found a new champion, others a new foe. Frustration has given way to excitement and excitement to manifest trepidation as the ongoing transition winds down to the May 29 handover of power.

    Right now, the queues stretch longer at the banks nationwide even as Nigerians fasten their fates to Tinubu’s gospel of “Renewed Hope.” Some with infectious enthusiasm, some with curious resignation.