Former Kaduna State Governor Nosiru El-Rufai has left the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (PDP). What is he up to? Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the politics of defection and his 2027 calculations.
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, ‘accidental’ civil servant, vocal politician and former governor of Kaduna State, has carried out his threat to defect from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The defector is not an ideologue, and his defection was not based on ideological consideration. He is rich, but his wealth cannot match the quantum of human and material resources available to his former party. He left a big party for a smaller and struggling platform with limited prospects.
His departure from the ruling party was not beyond expectation. He had complained about some policies of the party on the pages of newspapers. “APC has left me,” he declared a month ago, hinting about his next move.” Apart from arrogating an exclusive numerical voting power and strength to the North during elections, he also tried to pose as the leader of an impending northern onslaught, warning that in two years time, the North will not vote for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term.
But, other nothern leading lights from the region disagreed, saying that he only expressed a personal opinion. APC National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje rejected El-Rufai’s allegation that the North was neglected, describing it as a figment of imagination. He said the president, through his inclusive policies, have given northerners a sense of belonging.
Having been left in the cold during the inauguration of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) by President Tinubu, the former Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister has not adjusted to life outside power.
As a founding member of APC, the turn of events is worrisome to some of his supporters, who are not likely to jump ship like him. El-Rufai had blamed his exclusion, more from the government, but less from the party, to the alleged plot hatched by the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, his Fulani kinsman from Adamawa State, who arguably became more influential than him after the 2023 polls.
When it was evident that he had lost the nomination for a ministerial slot in the administration, he was worried. His ego was deflated. He attracted public sympathy. The feeling was that after he had said that he was not interested in serving as a minister, he was persuaded to accept nomination by the party leader and he actually showed up for screening at the Senate. Many thought the Power portfolio was for him.
However, 24 days is a long time in politics. The table turned against him on the slippery political field. Sources said El-Rufai was consequently asked to nominate another person for the slot. Yet, in his diminishing camp of supporters in Kaduna and other places, the missed opportunity was a big blow and a sort of dashed hope for cronies who had wished to make an in-road into the administration.
Mixed reactions have trailed his defection to the SDP, a party that came fourth in the last presidential election. It could not be ascertained whether he discussed his move with his former leader, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and colleagues in the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Analysts have pointed out that he left APC to galvanise the opposition and align interest with previous political foes who are united by the motive to work against President Tinubu in 2027.
El-Rufai has been described as a clever and controversial actor, whose political life had reflected a focus and resolve to succeed as an exponent of conditional loyalty and symbol of ethnic bullying.
To the SDP, El-Rufai is a big catch. He is a household name in political circles associated with some past political battles. But his new party is not a formidable platform, although it has two senators who borrowed it during the 2023 polls.
SDP presidential candidate in the last general election, Adebayo Adewole, who once castigated him as a symbol of ethnic and religious bigotry in a plural country thirsty for unity in diversity, acknowledged his strengths and weaknesses. He said El-Rufai would need to work on those weaknesses.
Adewole, a lawyer and businessman, described the former governor as a competent and hardworking public servant, whose skills, experience and energy are needed for effective governance. He said the defection has met the expectation of the SDP, whose strategy is to woo popular politicians into the fold as it prepares to tackle Tinubu in the next election. To him, El-Rufai is an asset to the opposition.
Some politicians and commentators do not share these views. Sheu Sani, a human rights activist and a senator from Kaduna in the first term of El-Rufai as governor, described the defection as a good radiance to a bad rubbish. He described the venerable defector as a civilian dictator, who is guilty of his allegations against the APC.
Sani said El-Rufai has no respect for internal democracy, recalling that when he was governor, the party chairman, secretary, elected local government chairmen and most of the elected public officials were handpicked by him.
“I left APC because of him. If he returns to the APC, I will leave again,” he added.
Sani predicted that El-Rufai will become a divisive factor in his new abode because of his domineering nature.
Kaduna APC welcomed the defection with a sense of relief. Its Secretary, Yahaya Pate, said: “We are unperturbed by former governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to another party. Our focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani come 2027.”
A political scientist, Prof. Jideofor Adibe of Nasarawa State University, Nasarawa, said El-Rufai has achieved a motive, adding that his goal is relevance, which he believes SDP can guarantee. But he pointed out that many percieved him as a polarising force in the polity.
Critics also doubted if his defection would have much negative impact on the APC, which is waxing strong. He condemned transactional ambition. The Professor contented that instead of solo efforts, mergers are better.
To many observers, El-Rufai is a complex personality; in a breath very principled, and in another dimension politically unstable. He is an arrogant, clever and an aggressive operator, blessed with persuasive talents and organisational ability crucial for mobilisation under a virile leadership.
Eminent scholar, the late Prof. Oladipo Akinkugbe, who sighted El-Rufai at a function in Lagos, said he suspected that the first class graduate of Quantity Surveying from Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, was one of his troublesome students on rampange when he was ‘stoned’ as vice chancellor with pure water. He insisted that El-Rufai was at the forefront. The claim could not be ascertained. At the event, El-Rufai just smiled.
Outside school, El-Rufai has not been dumb. In public life, he has really excelled.
El-Rufai first tasted power when former military Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar appointed him as as an economic advisor in 1998.
His successor, President Olusegun Obasanjo later appointed El-Rufai as the inaugural director of the Bureau of Public Enterprises and Secretary of the National Council of Privatisation where he spearheaded the privatisation of government owned corporations under the supervision of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
In July 2003, he was appointed the FCT Minister. He insisted on the implementation of the original masterplan. With the establishment of the Abuja Geographic Information System, the federal capital became the first municipality in Nigeria with a computerised land register and information system.
After El-Rufai’s appointment was approved by the Senate, he alleged that former Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu and Senator Jonathan Zwingina asked for $414,000 bribe before his nomination as a minister was approved. Both senators denied the accusation.
The Senate Public Accounts Committee accused him of paying exorbitant salaries to staff without proper approval. El-Rufai retorted: “Silence is the best answer to a fool.” The Senate was enraged. Obasanjo apologised on his behalf. When it was rejected, he had to go to the Senate to tender a personal apology.
As FCT Minister, El-Rufai demolished 945 buildings and settlements in a bid to sanitise the territory. The residence of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)National Chairman, Senator Ahmadu Ali, in Asokoro, built over a water trunk line, was not spared.
At the twilight of the administration El-Rufai presided over a ministerial/administrative panel which indicted his former boss, Atiku.
In 2008, he travelled abroad. When he came back, he enlisted in the CPC, serving as its secretary. When CPC fused with other parties to form APC, he became a legacy member. In 2015, he became governor, defeating former Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero of the PDP. He was reelected in 2019.
As governor, he embarked on the reforms of the civil service, reduced the number of ministries and departments, implemented free education at primary and secondary school levels, and blocked financial leakages. His decision to confuct test for teachers sparked a row between him and the teachers’ union.
El-Rufai rendered a vital service to APC and Nigeria when the committee he chaired recommended the restructuring of the polity. The report was dumped into the dustbin.
As governor, he often stormed Lagos to fire salvos at the APC National Leader, who he accused of domineering influence. He decried what he described as monopolisation of power and lack of internal democracy. Party loyalists and other Lagosians ignored the partisan incitement.
Those who decribed him as a Fulani irredentist loathed his statement in defence of tribal interest, when he warned soldiers in the line of duty to know their limitations.
“We will write this for all to read. Anyone, soldier or not that kills the Fulani takes a loan payable one day no matter how long it takes,” he tweeted.
His remarks on religion were also labelled by christian bodies as a “divisive, bigoted, hateful and completely unstatesmanlike declaration of Islamic political supremacism in Kaduna State and Nigeria.”
Around 2017, El-Rufai, accompanied by Rotimi Amaechi, former Transportation minister, held a parley with reporters at Eko Hotels, Victoria Island, to collate facts on Buhari’s popularity in the Southwest. To their surprise, they found out that the key and gate to the Southwest remained Asiwaju Tinubu. In fact, a reporter retorted: “Why are you coming to us to ask questions about the strength of Buhari in the Southwest,or whether the people of the zone will vote for him in 2019? In 2014/15, you people went to Bourdillion to see Asiwaju. Why are you coming to us instead of going to meet your National Leader?” Amaechi kicked at the comment. But, El-Rufai was jotting down the observations. During the Tinubu birthday that followed in 2018, Buhari stormed Lagos, proclaiming Tinubu as master strategist.
There was no evidence to suggest that El-Rufai was rooting for Tinubu ahead of the presidential primary. But, when certain elements in the party claimed that Buhari had anointed Senator Ahmed Lawan, El-Rufai led some governors to the former president to affirm support for zoning.
A predecessor-successor crisis broke out in Kaduna, shortly after El-Rufai left office. Today, he and his sucessor do not see eye to eye.
What difference can he now make in SDP, having left APC, his natural habitat, which he would be attacking as the polity warms up for 2027?
SDP is a small party, and it is wrong to describe the current SDP as the incarnate of the Moshood Abiola’s SDP of the Third Republic.
The party has limited tentacles, being majorly a borrowed platform, like the Labour Party (LP), and place of temporary refuge for aggrieved chieftains from the APC and PDP. In the National Assembly and across the states, SDP is a minority of minorities.
What is El-Rufai’s future ambition? President or Vice president?
