Category: Politics

Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, in this report, gauges the pulse of Nigerians on  allegation that President Goodluck Jonathan has taken 2015 political battle to the pulpit

As the battle for 2015 elections peaks, Nigerians are expressing concern that some politicians and public office holders are taking advantage of the pulpit, converting religious services to mini campaign grounds or venues to get back at their critics or political opponents.

One of the public officials that is so accused is President Goodluck Jonathan.

Between the last Christmas Day, December 25, 2013 and today, the president, according to some respondents, has probably taken advantage of the pulpit more than any other single politician or public office holder.

He has utilised every opportunity given to him to thank congregants in virtually all the church services he has attended, to either respond to criticisms against his person or office or to comment on other critical national developments in the country.

“As a result,” said Dr Gabriel Uzoma, an elder in Presbyterian Church and grassroots leader, “concerned observers are today afraid that the church stands the risk of being dragged into the muddy waters of politics ahead 2015. We are worried and will appreciate it if Mr President and other politicians will henceforth refrain from making political statements when they attend church services or Muslim prayers, as the case may be. Such services are good for prayers and worship to God alone and should not be used for political commentaries and such like,” he said.

On the Christmas Day, last year, President Goodluck Jonathan, who worshipped at the Cathedral Church of the Advent, Anglican Communion, Gwarimpa, Abuja, used the opportunity to warn his political opponents against heating up the polity, saying the country belongs to nobody in particular but to all Nigerians.

As he puts it, “For us at this time ,especially, we the politicians, we think we own this country and begin to think about next election and doing what we ought not to do, making statement we ought not to make, writing letters we suppose not to write.

“This country belongs to our statesmen, traditional rulers, religious leaders, our men, our women, our youth. Nigeria does not belong to any politician or group of politicians.’’

The first Sunday of the year, January 5, 2014, was another day for such verbal exchanges.

Jonathan, who worshipped at the Church of Christ In Nations (COCIN), used the opportunity to lash out at some Nigerians he identified as “evil,” prophesying that the country “must be liberated” from such people.

“Nobody or group can hold this country to ransom. We will collectively liberate this country from any evil person, so that we can leave behind a Nigeria that our children and grandchildren will be proud of,”he warned.

This year’s Armed Forces Remembrance celebration service offered the president another opportunity to advance his position on the 2015 presidential election and to talk back at his critics and political opponents.

At the service, held on the second Sunday of the year in Abuja, he commented on the altercations arising from disagreements over his alleged resolve to contest in the 2015 presidential election. While not denying his ambition, he warned that no Nigerian should kill or maim himself or herself because of his ambition. He also came hard on his critics.

“Sometimes I get worried when I listen to provocative statements that come from very senior citizens. People that ordinarily you perceive are very senior citizens. People who are probably 70 or 80 years, who have seen it all, who ordinarily should know the unity of this country is more important than the interest of any individual.

“Sometimes, they preach hate and even encourage young people to carry arms and kill themselves.

“I have always said it that any ambition I have at any time is not worth the blood of any Nigerian. I will never ever expect a Nigerian to spill a drop of his blood because Goodluck Jonathan must fulfill his ambition,” he said, adding,

“I always say as a politician that I pray all politicians should know that there will be no nation if we kill ourselves. If you want people to come out and vote, why do you threaten them? If you threaten people they will stay in their houses and how will you win election?

‘In an occasion like this, we should also admonish ourselves that we should preach peace and unity in all our conversations. If we do that, all our problems will be resolved, our security issues will be resolved. If all of us collectively talk about the unity of this country, about peace in this country, then our country will progress and move in the direction we want the country to move,” he said.

Interpreted to be a direct attack on a personality like former  President Olusegun Obasanjo, who recently wrote an open letter carpeting Jonathan’s administration and other outspoken political opponents, an associate of the former president, who pleaded not to be identified because he was not authorized by Obasanjo to react on his behalf, has warned that Jonathan, by choosing holy services to make such direct attacks may be treading a dangerous path of dragging religion into the hard core politics. “We are not worried by the attacks. We are only concerned by the chosen venue to vent such anger. A church is a house of God, not a campaign ground where we can throw muds,” he said.

It would be recalled that in his message at the service, the Arch Bishop of the Abuja Diocese of the Methodist Church, Arch Bishop Job Ojei, while supporting Jonathan, had also warned politicians against making what he described as ‘unedifying utterances.”

“All politicians should give us peace of mind. Some of the utterances we hear from them make us begin to fear. If you need our votes don’t threaten us. If you continue to threaten us nobody will come out to vote. Leave 2015 alone. God will take care of it. By hating other tribes or other religion, you will never eliminate those tribes or religion. By causing trouble for a particular religion will not eliminate any religion. God knows why he allowed the existence of other tribes and religion. Every religion is meant to build up the nation,” he said.

Most Nigerians who spoke to The Nation on the matter during the week condemned the act of using pulpits to exchange words on political matters or governance, warning that it does not augur well for the polity. “Nigeria has suffered so much as a result of ethnicity. It would therefore be dangerous for us to further complicate the situation by encouraging a mixture of religion and politics,” Alhaji Ademola Ogunloye cautioned. Ogunloye, an architect and retired elder in Lagos, cautioned Church and Mosque leaders across the country to stop availing public office holders and politicians of their pulpit or alter for political commentaries. According to him, “this does not speak well of such religious organisations. It reduces rather than adds to the credibility of such religious organisation. If this trend is not stopped before 2015, the result will certainly be unpalatable to all.  Nobody needs be told that this act is extremely dangerous. You can imagine what will happen to our religion if every politician abandons campaign grounds for religious alters when they want to engage one another in their dirty politics. I think they will only desecrate the alter and hinder the move of the Holy Spirit,” he said.

But Deacon Israel Akpan, who identified himself only as a Pentecostal minister, argued that “there is nothing wrong with a public office holder, who is a believer, talking about the challenges of the country while in the church, especially if the aim is to subject such challenges to corporate prayers. We believe that when two, three or more brethren join hands in prayer and decree anything, it shall be established. Look, the problem of Nigeria requires the attention of the church, and blessed is a leader who recognises this fact and wants the church to intervene in prayers,” he said.

Sister Elisabeth Ogadinma of Mercy Assembly Ministries, Lagos, agrees with Akpan on his matter. She described Jonathan as “a deeply religious leader,” who, according to her “is right in taking the political challenges of the nation to the house of God.”

She however cautioned that such opportunities should not be used for name calling and abuse of political opponents, but should be dedicated only to prayers.

It would be recalled that for Jonathan, resorting to the pulpit, for solution to his political quest is not new. At the peak of the campaigns for the 2011 presidential election, he caught the attention of Nigerians, when, at one of the Holy Ghost Night Services at the Redemption Camp ground, he stepped out for a special prayer. At the end of the exercise, witnessed physically by millions of worshippers at the camp, and watched live on cable and television across the globe, his critics loudly condemned the act, wondering why, as the president of Nigeria, he had to kneel down to pray in front of the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, Pastor E. A Adeboye, who led the prayers.

One of the critics, Pastor Tunde Bakare, the Senior Pastor of Latter Rain Assembly, reacting to the development then, said mockingly, “They have signdled the campaign by going to kneel down before Pastor Adeboye. See, I am not saying that pastors should not pray for presidents, that man was representing an office; a whole nation, crumbling before men of God because of political advantage they think they can get. And if the prayer will bail him out, let us wait and see.”

Bakare added, “By going to kneel down in the open before the pastor, the man (Jonathan) did not even recognise the dignity of his office. If it were a private thing, it is okay for you to  crawl or kneel but it is a whole nation. That office has been diminished by a man who does not know the worth of it and does not deserve to stay there for one more day.”

As it turned out, however, Jonathan won that election and has openly attributed his success at the polls partly to the prayers offered for him in that service.

When he visited the same camp ground during another of such services  long after his electoral victory, Jonathan told the large congregation, “I request that you continue to pray for our country. All nations pass through challenges. As a nation, we are passing through our own challenges, but there is nothing, and I repeat, nothing, that is above the power of God. I am convinced that with our persistent prayers, we will continue to dedicate ourselves to what is right… That I am here today, speaking to this congregation as President of Nigeria is a good example of what God can do because without his divine intervention, I wouldn’t have been here as president of the country. Of course, God works in miraculous way.

“People ask me whether I am contesting election in 2015 and I say it is early to decide about election. I am here to thank my brothers and sisters for the prayers that you are offering for this country. With more prayers, I am sure we will conquer devil… When I was campaigning for election, I came to the camp and you prayed for me, and I succeeded,” he declared.

As the actual political battle draws nearer and the major actors desperately seek prayers and support of brethren, religious purists are afraid that unless caution is taken now, campaigns may be manipulated by callous politicians to dent the image of holy grounds and possibly worsen division based on religious beliefs. The fear is deep as Nigeria approaches the 2015 election year.

There is the Igbo proverb that a man absent in a burial would always start the exhumation of a corpse from the feet. This is a taboo in Igbo custom.

The Nation on Sunday January 12, 2014, presented speculations as facts on page 21, written by Sam Egburonu, one of The Nation’s regular columnists. He erroneously credited Chief Apugo’s exit from the PDP to APC as a big loss to PDP. Lies! Damned lies.

Chief B. B. Apugo has been living on past glories of the NRC days. It is a known story how he sponsored Dr Ogbonna Onu, first democratically elected governor of Abia State. The installation of Onu got his head swollen that no cap could size it and he started playing god.

His nominees for the commissionership sailed through like milking a cow, but he did not know when to stop and so got at loggerheads with the incumbent governor. In life, there is a point you cannot go beyond and it was Apugo’s first time near a governor and so, he lacked knowledge of the power of incumbency. Onu, later in his administration, weaned himself of Apugo’s overbearing Godfatherism and used the big stick. In truth, the biggest defeat Apugo had suffered in his uninspiring political career was in Onu’s hands during a party convention where Apugo’s invincibility was debunked. His thugs, one of his biggest weapons, were boxed in and couldn’t have access to the venue, now the FRSC H.Q. in Amuzukwu Umuahia.

In that same administration, when Apugo could not have his way, he urged his nominees to resign, and they all did except a few like Chief Jonny Nwabuisi, who is now a stalwart of the APC. Professor Nwoko, a good gentleman, the Secretary to the State Government then, was one of the people who resigned. These few mentioned are still living and could tell the story better if they have not written their memoirs.

Sam equally cited Emenike as probably the second most powerful to join the APC ranks in Abia. In the article, Sam forgot Chief G. O. Onyemobi, who has been bearing the APC cross.

Now, listen Sam! Chief Apugo and Emenike are two trouble makers that will destroy the APC. Apugo has never been a team player – a very poor attribute for party politics. Chief Apugo, in his autocratic behaviour does not attend meetings in another man’s house except in his palace with his bevy of domestic staff and kitchen cabinet made up of spent political forces who sing his praises, tirelessly echoing his opinions and hailing every banal utterance he makes. In physical terms, Apugo’s place is a lion’s den and there are no Daniels in the APC. Watch out, his first action now will be to hijack the APC and that’s where the trouble will start. Chief G. O. Onyemobi, who has been running the affairs of APC in the state, knows Apugo too well to have anything to do with him or take him into confidence.

Emenike on his own is another tinder box. ‘Emenike is only an election politician,’ said one of his coordinators. He comes around when there is election after which he fails, litigates and zooms off. He knows more lawyers than he knows the electorate. He is more familiar with the precincts of the courts in Nigeria than he knows his home constituency and has not been known to have won any election, even that of his age grade. Emenike holds court like Apugo and seriously disdains his so-called followers except those who have mastered his mentality and only tell him what he likes to hear.

You wrote about strong political structures for both men. More inexactitudes! They neither have structures nor strong base, if you doubt, go to INEC and find out the pattern of votes they have garnered in all the elections.

Emenike only thrives on chasing political shadows like the last case where he organised his own primary, ignored the PDP approved primaries apparatus and organised his lateral primary in his own venue, overseen by his selected officers.  APC in Abia is really in trouble. I will be looking out to see who will stand behind Emenike except security men. If the stories that made the rounds are anything to go by, most of the people who served him in previous elections were hounded by security men and cars and other items he gave for the election were recovered. I can name names if need be.

Still talking about the tempestuous Chief Apugo, he has not been of any use to Abia PDP. Recall the PDP presidential primaries in the Eagle Square, Abuja, January 13, 2011. He was the only Abia delegate who voted against the adopted candidate. Out of the 81 delegates accredited, one vote was lost and everybody knew whose vote it was. Is such a character the type to be positioned as a worthy member? Emenike’s lateral primaries and Apugo’s rebellion in Abuja drew the ire of the party disciplinary committee and nearly fetched them expulsion from the party but for T. A. Orji’s intervention. Their exit is good riddance to bad rubbish.

For Sam Egburonu, if he puts his ears to the ground, he will certainly hear the drumbeats of the ants.

• Ifegwu wrote in from Umuahia

Once again, President Goodluck Jonathan has squandered another chunk of what is left of his political goodwill with the unguarded boast to Nigerians that his performance in two and half years as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has dwarfed those of all his predecessors since independence.

The President did not stop there. He further challenged Nigerians to compare his administration’s performance with that of any country’s administration in the world!

This latest outburst of the President may have been necessitated by the unrelenting barrage of criticisms from the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), President’s own Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) as well the growing murmurs of disappointed Nigerians who had thought that voting for a ‘humble’ and apparently cerebral (Jonathan has a Phd) man will help improve the country’s fortune and raise their living standards.

Add this to the unflattering rating of Nigeria as one of the most corrupt countries in the world by the global anti-corruption agency Transparency International, and one will understand why President Jonathan should feel uncomfortable.

However, in reacting to these pressures, the President’s spokespersons have continued to alienate him from Nigerians, including some of his sympathizers, through misguided comments, selective and often misleading data and, sometimes, outright falsehood.

For instance, the President’s claim of superior performance over his predecessors has enlarged his enemies’ camp beyond former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has engaged the President in recent times. All other former leaders and their loyalists are now aware that Dr. Jonathan is a ‘superior’ performer! His inclusion of governments outside Nigeria further exposes him to ridicule as development indices indicate that many African countries, many of them less endowed, rank much higher than Nigeria in the development continuum.

Whether it is in per capital income, life expectancy, maternal mortality, access to education, potable water, housing, employment, security, agriculture, power, etc, which are all used to measure a country’s Human Development Index, countries like Gabon, Angola, Algeria, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Malawi, Egypt, Libya, Mauritius, and South Africa are heads and shoulders above Nigeria.

Let us even for the purpose of argument assume that the President’s performance has been exceptional, there is still no basis for comparison with his predecessors without highlighting what parameters have been used in arriving at such a conclusion. This is because each succeeding administration in Nigeria operated in different local and global environments and was confronted with peculiar challenges.

For instance, General Yakubu Gowon had the challenges of fighting a civil war, managing post-war relations, and effectively managing the windfall that accrued to Nigeria in the oil-boom era. General Murtala Mohammed confronted an emerging humongous and extremely powerful and corrupt bureaucracy, questionable sincerity of the military to return Nigeria to civil rule, and providing leadership for the efforts to dismantle apartheid and minority rule in Southern Africa. General Olusegun Obasanjo inherited these responsibilities from General Mohammed after the latter’s assassination in a failed coup, the only time in Nigeria that a new military administration was a continuity of a previous one.

Alhaji Shehu Shagari became the first Executive President of Nigeria and had the immediate task of nurturing Nigeria’s new civil rule into a full-blown democracy whilst also accommodating rising cost of governance (due to civilian rule) in the face of dwindling revenue from crude oil- Nigeria’s economic main-stay. For General Muhammadu Buhari, corruption in high places, breakdown of ethical conduct amongst the populace and a failing economy were the challenges. On his part, General Babangida had to contend with economic restructuring owing to oil glut, increased corruption in the public sector, and transition to civilian rule. Generals Sani Abacha and Abdusalami Abubakar also came in tow, the latter going down

in history as the most focused leader in Nigerian history, having ensured a successful transition to civil rule within 11 months of coming to power.

It was not that Nigeria did not have other debilitating challenges at that time, but because General Abubakar simply took a long look, identified the most strategic issue in the land and went for it! Chief Obasanjo’s second coming as a civilian President was at a time Nigeria’s image had been badly battered in the international community. That was the era ‘pariah state’ entered the Nigerian political lexicon. He also had to confront corruption which by now had taken up a life of its own in all sectors of our national life. You can also add the trio of public infrastructural deficit, economic recession and sustenance of civil rule to his basket. Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua had his day in the sun but his greatest challenge was not the health of the Nigerian nation but his own debilitating health, a battle he unfortunately lost in May 2010. It was his demise that initially opened the doors of the President’s office to Dr. Goodluck Jonathan for the completion of Yar’Adua’s tenure. Dr Jonathan then went ahead to win the Presidential election of 2011 which granted him a 4-year tenure as President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces.

Unfortunately, while he thought he would focus his attention on an aspect of Nigeria’s decayed infrastructure (power), he was proven wrong by the enormity and urgency of other challenges which did not feature in his calculations. He was not alone in this failure. Indeed, most Nigerians, exasperated by the many agenda-setting slogans of his predecessors, set a one-point agenda for him: revitalization of the power sector, an agenda the President himself bought into, at least from his campaign

messages.

Barely weeks into his tenure, the challenges of insecurity, decay in the petroleum sector, political intrigues, increasingly restive citizenry, waning relevance of Nigeria in the international community, corruption as statecraft, etc began to rank very high in the ladder of challenges confronting the President.

I have labored to compartmentalize the challenges that faced the various administrations that Nigeria has had in order to show that the only objective parameters that can be used in adjudging the success or otherwise of a government is its ability to effectively focus on its avowed agenda while proactively managing the environment in a way that does not unnecessarily throw up issues that will distract it from set objectives. Therefore, President Goodluck Jonathan should understand that rather than comparing himself with past administrations, he should be focusing on how well he has delivered on his electioneering campaign promises, while also managing the unintended or contrived issues that now

endanger his presidency.

To the average rational Nigerian, real and perceived evidences do not support the President’s claim of exceptional performance. Indeed, the President himself recently alluded to that when he said he is the most criticized president in the world, but that those criticisms were because the people have not started seeing the outcome of his transformation agenda, which he said may not manifest immediately due to the long-term approach of his administration.

Why and how, just a few months down the line, the same President would claim to have outperformed his predecessors and contemporaries in other countries is amazing.

Of late, the President’s men (and women) have been quick to point to an economic growth rate of seven percent and World Bank reports which say that foreign direct investment into Nigeria in 2013 makes the country an investors’ destination of choice.

However, the same spokespersons are quick to repudiate other reports that sound less patronizing. For instance, the Federal Government vehemently repudiated Transparency International’s report that ranked Nigeria as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Indeed, some of the claims of the President’s men make me wonder whether they actually understand the enormous responsibilities that the office carries. Not too long ago, I listened to the Minister of Information claiming that the President should not be held responsible for the orgy of violence that have reigned supreme in some parts of the north.

According to him, the Boko Haram phenomenon is the handiwork of political opponents of the President. Granted that this is so, whose responsibility is it to bring the alleged sponsors of terrorism to book? When you mention the rampaging prevalence of corruption, what you are greeted with by government officials is that it did not start with Jonathan. Neither could you hold him responsible for the poor state of public infrastructure in the country. However, the same government is quick to claim credit for any achievement by a Nigerian, even when it is through the individual’s dint of hard work, perseverance and a determination to

escape poverty.

Just a few days ago, I watched the Minister of Sports at the Glo-CAF Awards referring to Mr. President as the most successful President in Nigeria’s history in terms of laurels won by Nigerian athletes. Unfortunately for the minister, he didn’t get the expectant response from the audience. The near silence and a few audible grumblings by a hitherto animated audience was sufficient evidence that they were not impressed by the minister’s sycophantic gesture. For goodness sake, even if winning of medals and trophies by athletes and teams are used to appraise the political leadership of countries, President Jonathan will not feature anywhere close to the performing leaders. The zenith of accomplishment in sports is winning an Olympic gold medal. This President has not won one. General Abacha ‘won’ the African Cup of Nations in 1994 in Tunis and two gold medals in 1996 in Atlanta. In sports, one gold medal is greater than 100 silver medals! At any rate, the hallmark of a successful President is the legacy he leaves behind through his strategy and policies.

Today, Edo and Delta States continue to be the production mill of sportsmen and women in Nigeria due to the sports development strategy of Dr Sam Ogbemudia as Governor of old Mid-West and later Bendel State. This government has not built any sports facility and has no plans of doing so. Most public schools do not have sporting arenas where talents can be discovered and honed. The only grassroots sports competitions still running are sustained by some committed individuals supported by corporate organizations. I am not aware of any robust government intervention in sports to which we can attribute the sporadic triumphs by Nigerian sportsmen and women.

To think that this is the same government that spent over two billion Naira on the 2012 Olympic Games that did not yield a medal of any colour!

Also, despite the hyped agricultural transformation by the Federal Government, Nigeria is still far from being in a position to feed its citizenry. Billions of dollars are spent annually on importation of just one food item, rice. Road infrastructure is

still in a parlous state.

At no time in the history of this country did we have so many Nigerians languishing in foreign jail houses, most of them innocently fleeing from poverty at home. Our tertiary educational institutions are a shadow of their old self. Nigerian

degrees are now worth slightly more than the papers on which they are printed, leading to parents sending their wards to South Africa, Europe and America (and even Ghana) for quality education. Nigeria’s influence on the global stage has also nose-dived in recent times, climaxing in a noticeable snub at the burial of Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

Weighed against these setbacks, those fawning aides who are deifying President Jonathan and exaggerating his performance are doing him a disservice. This is because now that they have put him in the stratosphere in terms of his performance, what then is there for him to aspire to in terms of achievement? He can as well relax and wait for Nigerians to show appreciation for his ‘impressive performance’, come 2015!

  •Alhaji Mohammed is the

  Interim National Publicity Secretary

  All Progressives Congress(APC)

Alliance for Change 2015, a political pressure group in Zone B Senatorial district of Niger State, has called on Senator Awaisu Dahiru Kuta to forget his bid for re-election into the Senate, alleging that the distinguished senator has performed below expectation in his seven years sojourn in the upper chamber.

The group also described his tenure as lack lustre.

Rising from an emergency meeting in Abuja, last week, the group in a five-point resolution, signed by Alhaji Muhammed Aminu, Coordinator and Barrister Joseph Anthony, Secretary respectively, unanimously passed a vote of no confidence in the senator.

According to the group, the senator, as an indigene of Niger State, has the constitutional right to contest for any position in the state, but they reaffirmed that as representatives and voice of the people of Zone B, they have vowed that Senator Awaisu Dahiru Kuta will not represent them again in the hallowed chamber of the senate, come 2015.

The Alliance for Change gave reasons why the people of Zone B will not endorse or vote for the senator even if he defects from the PDP to any political party.They alleged that he was not in touch with his people as he has not visited any of the constituencies in the nine local government areas that made up Zone B since he was elected to represent them in 2007, including even Kuta village where he hails from.

They lamented that the constituents were never briefed on the happenings in the senate and the country as a whole, it is only members of the House of Representatives from the zone that do come and brief them “yet we claim to have somebody in the senate. Such impunity must stop and 2015 is the year to put a stop to that.”

The Alliance said politicians are supposed to be closer to their people; regretting that “Kuta was far away from his people as even his liaison offices are always shut with no outreach officers to respond to challenges facing the people.”

The Alliance concluded by saying, “this is indeed a defining moment in the politics of Niger state, the era of just selecting anybody to go and represent the state in the national or state assembly is over. They said inhabitants of Zone B are sophisticated and enlightened and the senatorial seat in the National Assembly is nobody’s birthright. We have been practicing rotational democracy, this time around it must be done the way it is supposed to be done, no part of the emirates in the state should be marginalised.”

To the uninformed and uninitiated, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) crisis has been resolved with the resignation of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as national chairman. He was not the problem, but the fall guy. He came into office by the grace of President Goodluck Jonathan and held the office purely to protect the President’s political interest. He realised this and played the part assigned him in the script written in Aso Villa.

As President Jonathan himself said when he was finally forced to sacrifice the 78-year-old, “Tukur has done nothing wrong”. He acted his part in the play well. He pretended to understand the political terrain and talked tough. In the process, he incurred the wrath of many members and leaders. His removal, to demonstrate that the President is not as politically powerful as he is presented, became a major demand of the disaffected. This has fuelled the baseless speculation that the five governors who jumped ship to the rival All Progressives Congress (APC) could beat a retreat and seek cover under the torn umbrella once again.

While nothing could be taken for granted in Nigerian politics, it seems to me that Tukur was sacrificed to halt the exodus, rather than bring back those who have already formally defected. Also, it seems a move to save the political career of the President who has lost so much ground within such a short period. The loss of 37 members of the party in the House of Representatives, the impending change of leadership in the House to reflect the current realities and the signpost that the Senate could ultimately follow suit is a gloomy outlook that no politician would fold arms and watch unfold.

Is the forced resignation of Chairman Tukur Jonathan’s joker? Just how much help would this avail him? At the state level, the most populous and politically significant states-Lagos, Oyo, Rivers and Kano- are now all in the APC fold. Kaduna is unstable and could tilt either way. The whole of the Sokoto axis of states- Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara- appear to have “ported” to the APC. Beyond the numbers, this is significant. It is even more interesting that the governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Aliyu Wamakko, has dismissed any expectation that the affected governors could be encouraged to return as a result of Tukur’s resignation.

The North is smarting from its loss of power. It is also afraid that should it allow 2015 pass without staging a comeback to the stage, it could become a permanent loss. The Northern coalition of forces is frightening. It has brought together the traditional progressives and conservatives. In Kano, the home of radical politics in the North, the apparent coming together of the PDP, ANPP and CPC has blurred the ideological line and presented a different scenario. If the experiment in the APC works, it would be the first time that the mainstream political establishment in the West and the North West would be working together. And, supported by the North East. It might also be the first time that the East and Southern minorities would address politics as a joint venture, backed by the Christian minorities in the North Central.

It is obvious that the contest for power in 2015 is at the heart of the battle for the soul of the PDP. President Jonathan’s bid for a second term is the basis for the contest. If he genuinely wants to find a lasting solution to the crisis in his party, he would have to sacrifice his political ambition. One terse statement openly and unequivocally disavowing interest in another term that would take his tenancy in Aso Villa to ten years would do the trick. It is the only means of checking the exodus to the APC. Otherwise, not only would more House members ditch the ruling party, but the Senate would witness an eruption of earthquake proportion. Can President Jonathan survive?

Umeh, Nwanyanwu et al

The ongoing realignment is not affecting the PDP alone. During the week, the national leadership of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) also changed. Justice Ade Kafarati of an Abuja court ruled that Victor Umeh was not validly elected leader of the party and should, therefore, step aside. His place, the judge ruled, should be taken by Maxi Okwu. The import of this would be felt throughout the South East in the one year left before the next election. Umeh has appealed, but how long would this take? What really does the party’s constitution say about the mode of election?

More important to me is the principle that the leadership of parties must be elected in accordance with constitutional specification. The APGA constitution stipulates that no leader should be in office beyond eight years, but the secretary, Shinkafi, has been kept in office for more than ten years. Political office is not traditional stool that could be occupied for life. In a subtle way, this could also extend to the presidency- is it envisaged that, for any reason, a President could be sworn-in thrice for a combined term exceeding eight years? When the time comes, this question is likely to be posed to a judge of a court of competent jurisdiction.

For how long has Dan Nwanyanwu been in office? How much longer is he likely to be kept there by forces that have seized the Labour Party for self interest? The APC is saved this scrutiny because, officially, it is a new party and the executive acts in interim capacity. If, after a proper convention is held the same names and faces are recycled, the same parameters would be extended to it.

Indeed, the struggle for a new Nigerian continues.