Dr Celestine Chukwuneye is a founding member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos. In this interview with JOSEPH ESHANOKPE, he speaks on the 2027 general election, the emergence of the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) as another opposition platform and other issues.
What is your assessment of the prospects of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the coalition platform being championed by Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, and others to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next general election?
As long as there is life, there is hope. There is hope for ADC, there is hope for the APC, and there is even hope for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), though some say the PDP is already in a coma and under intensive care.
Human beings will always gather in different formations in pursuit of set goals and objectives. That is politics everywhere in the world. To that extent, there is hope that the ADC will be able to organise itself, attract membership, and pursue its objectives.
The real question is whether those objectives will be achieved. Only time can tell. It is not automatic. They may have the ambition, the structures, but whether they will actually translate that into electoral success is a matter for the future.
Do you see any of these leaders going back to their old parties?
It is easier for Atiku to return to the PDP than for El-Rufai to return to the APC, judging from their expressed positions in recent times.
However, they are seriously interested in building a new coalition. They are putting energy into it; they are aligning with one another. So the chances of them going back are very remote. Not impossible—there is always a chance—but remote.
And honestly, it might even be better for our democracy if they do not go back, because that way, we have stronger alternatives. Remember, the APC itself came into existence as a coalition between 2011 and 2013. Nigerians from different parties came together, merged, and built a formidable structure that defeated an incumbent government in 2015.
So, another coalition can always form and survive. The difference is that the APC succeeded quickly, within just two years, because the conditions in the country at the time were ripe for change. Will the ADC succeed in that same way? That is something we cannot predict. By 2027, we will be in a better position to say, ‘Okay, they succeeded’ or ‘No, they didn’t.’
But in principle, they have the right to try, they have the right to have ambition, and they have the right to gather themselves in whatever platform they think can carry them forward. That is democracy.
How has your party, the APC, fared in the last 10 years?
The APC, like every human organisation, has experienced some challenges since its formation. Some of the founding fathers left the party after the 2015 election. Some are still leaving the fold. At the same time, the party has waxed stronger, with new people coming in.
So, despite the exits, the party remains strong. It still has a bright future in Nigerian politics. This is because at its core, the APC is not just one person—it is a coalition, a living structure that can survive shocks.
Of course, being a human organisation, challenges will always exist. Differences of opinion, clashes of interest, leadership struggles—these are normal. At the national, state, and even local government level, you will find them. But that does not mean the party is collapsing. It is still standing firm and making progress.
In the past, we benefited from what I would call the ‘Buhari factor’. His personal popularity in the North was a strong pillar for the APC’s survival and dominance.
Buhari was a stabilising factor for the APC in the North. How would the party fare in his absence?
To some extent, yes. Buhari, when he was alive, had what many people rightly described as a cult following in the North. He could always rely on a certain block of voters who would vote for him simply because they loved and trusted him.
With his death, those block votes he used to deliver may not be guaranteed for the APC. His close associates, lieutenants, are trying to hold on to it, but it is not the same. After all, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) no longer exists; it was dissolved into the APC. What we have now is the APC as a broader platform, not the CPC.
So, the question is: how will they step into Buhari’s shoes in the APC when they are not the national leader of the party, nor the chairman? It is a different story entirely.
I know some of them have recently visited the President to pledge loyalty, which is commendable. However, we all understand that the CPC as a structure no longer exists. So, whatever they are trying to keep alive is more sentimental than real.
How would you assess President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration so far?
Fairly. The President started boldly, with two major policies: removing fuel subsidy and floating the naira. Those were courageous moves. They addressed some long-standing problems that previous governments kept postponing.
However, those policies also brought serious side effects. The removal of subsidy and the floating of the naira created new problems—higher prices, worsening hunger, more poverty, and even insecurity tied to economic hardship.
So, the real issue now is not whether the policies were necessary. They were. The issue is: how is the government responding to the problems that came in the wake of those policies? Are people actually seeing the benefits of the reforms?
Everywhere you go, Nigerians are complaining of hunger, poverty, and insecurity. These are real challenges the government must confront directly.
The central objective should be this: put more money in the pocket of the average Nigerian. That is the real test of economic policy.
But the government is distributing cash transfers to poor families. Isn’t that helping?
No, I don’t think so. That is not a sustainable solution. Identifying some families, labelling them ‘poor’, and then sending stipends into their bank accounts cannot eradicate poverty.
Yes, during emergencies like COVID-19, when people were at home and couldn’t work, such handouts were necessary—even in advanced economies. However, that was temporary relief, not a long-term strategy.
Poverty in Nigeria cannot be solved through palliatives or cash transfers. What can solve it are broad policies that increase disposable income across the board. If poor people earn more, they rise out of poverty. If the middle class have more money, they can invest, expand businesses, and employ others. That is how the economy grows.
Distribution of palliatives does not achieve this. It only encourages corruption and dependency.
The government recently announced that it had already achieved its non-oil revenue target for the year by August. What is your comment on that?
That is a good question. Journalists should ask: how exactly did the government achieve this? Was it because of higher productivity in the non-oil sector, or was it because Nigerians are being taxed more heavily?
From what I see, it is mainly the latter. Workers are paying more taxes, and here is why. Our tax laws are still based on figures from 2011. The Consolidated Relief Allowance (CRA) of ₦200,000, introduced at the time, remains in force today. In 2011, the minimum wage was about ₦18,000. Today, it is ₦70,000—almost four times. But the CRA has not changed.
That means the taxable portion of salaries is much higher, so workers pay more tax even if the rates are the same. My own workers complain about it, but I tell them it is the law.
Now, I hear the new tax laws have even removed that CRA entirely. If that is true, then by January 1 next year, anyone earning above minimum wage will pay even higher taxes, because there will be no relief at all.
This is something the National Assembly must urgently address. Nigerians, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), and other labour unions need to be aware of this and engage the government. Otherwise, from next year, workers will face more hardship.
This is why I say: the government should focus on policies that put money into people’s pockets, rather than more taxes.
Beyond taxation, what other steps should the government take to improve people’s lives?
There are several. The first step is to address health challenges. We need to fix the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA). Most Nigerians do not have health insurance. People still pay out of pocket for most treatments. It is not because the government lacks money; the scheme is poorly designed and restrictive.
If NHIA is properly restructured, more Nigerians will see the benefits and willingly sign up, instead of feeling coerced. That will reduce out-of-pocket spending, which is one of the biggest drains on families today.
Second, agriculture. Instead of throwing money at cash transfers, let the government channel that money into supporting farmers and agribusinesses. Agriculture is one of the largest employers of labour in Nigeria. If it thrives, it will employ more people, pay better wages, and sustainably reduce poverty.
Third, education. Many primary and secondary schools are suffering from infrastructural decay. Rather than questionable schemes like the school feeding programme, why not use those funds to buy textbooks for all registered pupils, or to equip libraries in schools, both public and private? That way, parents are relieved of one burden, and students get a better education. It is transparent and accountable.
Fourth, transport. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu offered a 50 per cent discount on train services for a week. That was good, but imagine if the government gave even a five to 10 per cent subsidy on mass transit fares all year round. That means commuters save money every single day. Over the course of 300 commuting days, those savings could amount to ₦30,000 per person. That is real money left in people’s pockets. And it is transparent, because it is tied to actual transport use.
Finally, the government must remember the middle class. Too often, policy is focused only on the very poor. But the middle class drives employment. They open shops, start businesses, employ artisans, and keep the economy alive. If they have more disposable income, they will create jobs for others.
Many state governments seize council funds even though they are a separate tier of government. What is your reaction to this?
The deeper issue is not just the funds. It is the credibility of local government elections. In almost every state, local elections are a charade. The party in power sweeps everything. In Rivers State this year, for example, one party won 22 out of 23 seats in one election. Then, just months later, in local elections, the same party could not win even one seat. How do you explain such a dramatic shift?
Clearly, the system is flawed. That is why I support those who say state electoral commissions should be scrapped. Here is my proposal:
INEC should handle federal elections for the President, the Vice President, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.
State electoral commissions should handle governorship and state assembly elections.
Local government electoral commissions should handle council elections.
That way, elections are organised by people closest to the voters. In Ejigbo, for instance, if people are involved in organising elections, they cannot easily manipulate results without consequences, because they live among us.
Right now, state governments dominate local councils. That is unhealthy. It creates the perception that the elections are not free and fair. This undermines the legitimacy of our democracy.
If we restructure this way, election petitions will also become easier. At the local level, if there is rigging in Ejigbo, parties can prove it because they are conversant with the community. But asking a presidential candidate to prove rigging in hundreds of polling units across the country is unrealistic. That is why courts often struggle with election cases.
We must rejig the system if Nigeria is to move forward. Without credible elections, legitimacy will always be in doubt. And without legitimacy, even the best economic policies will suffer, because people do not trust the government to implement them.
