Category: Special Report

In the first half of 2024, Nigeria has demonstrated impressive economic progress under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. This period marks the fastest economic growth in the first quarter over the past six years, driven by a range of strategic interventions. Finance Minister Wale Edun highlighted significant advancements across key sectors, including agriculture, industry and technology, as well as substantial improvements in fiscal and monetary policies. In this special report, Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA writes that the administration’s targeted efforts—ranging from agricultural productivity boosts to infrastructure investments—have begun yielding positive results

Nigeria recorded positive economic performance in the first half of 2024. In fact, the fastest first quarter economic growth in six years was recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, made this disclosure at a newly introduced quarterly media briefing in Abuja.

He said, “The economy in Nigeria grew faster in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023. Economic activity in the first quarter of 2024, was not only faster than in Q1 2023, but it’s the second fastest first quarter growth in the last six years. And the growth is broad-based, agriculture, industries, services. And agricultural growth has been dragged from negative in the first quarter of 2023, as you see there, to a modest growth in the first quarter of 2024.

“And the key is that having turned around to be faced in the right direction, the emphasis is on growing that contribution of agriculture to overall economic growth. As far as industry is concerned, the figures show that the industrial sector grew seven times faster than in Q1 2023.” The well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are beginning to yield fruits, he said.

Under the Bola Tinubu administration, several economic interventions have been introduced to sustain and enhance this growth trajectory. A major focus has been on broad-based economic stabilisation and growth, with policies targeting key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure. The agricultural sector, which has been a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, saw significant attention. The administration launched initiatives to boost agricultural productivity and ensure food security. These measures included subsidies on agricultural inputs, improved access to credit for  farmers, and investment in modern farming techniques. The result has been a turnaround from a negative growth rate in early 2023 to a modest yet positive growth in the first quarter of 2024.

In the manufacturing sector, the administration has implemented policies aimed at revitalising industrial activities. Efforts to support local manufacturers through financial aid, tax incentives, and infrastructure improvements have been critical. This sector’s remarkable growth, seven times faster than in Q1 2023, underscores the effectiveness of these interventions. The technology sector has not been left out. Recognizing the potential of the digital economy, the government has invested in supporting startups and tech companies. Initiatives such as the establishment of tech hubs, provision of grants, and creating favorable policies for tech businesses have been pivotal. These efforts are aimed at fostering innovation, creating jobs, and driving economic growth through technology.

Infrastructure development has also been a significant part of the administration’s economic interventions. Large-scale projects in transportation, energy, and urban development have been initiated. These projects are designed to create jobs, improve connectivity, and lay the foundation for long-term economic growth. Financial support measures have been another key aspect of the government’s interventions. Programs aimed at providing financial aid to businesses and individuals have been rolled out. These include low-interest loans for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), direct cash transfers to vulnerable populations, and other social investment programmes. Partnerships with international organisations have also been leveraged to bolster these efforts, bringing in much-needed financial support and expertise.

The impact of these interventions is already visible, with preliminary data showing positive trends across various economic indicators. Success stories from businesses and individuals benefiting from these programmes further highlight their effectiveness. However, challenges remain, and the administration continues to address these through continuous policy adjustments and stakeholder engagement. Criticisms have also been raised, particularly regarding the implementation of some programmes. Concerns about the equitable distribution of resources, efficiency in execution and transparency have been voiced by opposition parties, economists and the public. The administration has responded by emphasising its commitment to transparency and accountability, promising regular updates and improvements in response to feedback.

Food supply interventions

In the first half of 2024, the finance minister highlighted several government initiatives and interventions aimed at increasing the supply of food. “As we know, the consumer price index is 50% food, so when you achieve a reduction in food prices, you achieve a huge reduction in the overall inflation rate,” he explained. One of the strategic short-term programmes involves bringing in agricultural raw materials for millers and food processors, such as wheat, maize, and even brown rice, which can be milled locally.

There is an intense focus at the ward, local government and state levels on increasing food production across the country, despite challenges like insecurity in certain areas that affect farming activities. To further address inflation, the government is promoting the pivot to compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel for vehicles, particularly for mass transit systems such as buses. CNG-fueled vehicles offer a cost advantage, providing pricing that is one-third of the cost of premium motor spirit (PMS).

Foreign borrowing has also been managed strategically, with concessional funding accessible at a favourable exchange rate, essentially a naira rate of one per cent. This access to low-cost funding is being passed on to industries, with 9 per cent funding available for SMEs and grant funding for micro-enterprises. Larger companies also benefit from 9 per cent financing for significant amounts. These measures aim to support the manufacturing sector despite the high-interest rate regime.

The administration has introduced fiscal incentives, including duty waivers and freezes on tax increases, to reduce production costs. Efforts to lower transportation costs for agricultural produce and mass transit are part of these initiatives. The strategic measures to counter the high cost of living, which has been a primary concern, are designed to address the natural and expected spike in inflation resulting from necessary economic changes. A significant part of the government’s intervention involves direct monetary support to households. The goal is to provide 15 million households, approximately 75 million people, with direct financial assistance, allowing them to decide how to use the money, whether for food, medicine, or other necessities. This approach, proven effective globally, aims to help people manage their cost of living.

Initially, the direct payments programme had to be reconfigured to ensure transparency and accountability. Now, a gold standard system has been established, providing direct payments to individuals and their households. Beneficiaries are biometrically identified through unique identifiers such as names or voter card numbers and receive digital payments via their BVN-linked bank accounts or mobile wallets. Recent improvements in this system led to 600,000 payments being made just a few days ago, underscoring the programme’s efficiency and reach.

Efforts of the monetary authority

Clearly, as part of the reform programme on the monetary side, policy has been tightened significantly. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been proactive in adjusting the monetary policy rate to address inflation head-on, which is in line with its legal mandate. This is beginning to have the desired effect, with month-on-month inflation showing signs of slowing. Despite its persistent nature, there is optimism that inflation will moderate soon due to some of the government’s commitments and actions.

In terms of interest rates, the gap between inflation and interest rates is narrowing. This development makes the naira more viable as a store of value and reduces the incentive for investors to switch to non-naira investments. Consequently, there is growing confidence as the foreign exchange rate converges and stabilises. The CBN’s transition to a willing-buyer, willing-seller model has significantly reduced exchange rate volatility and improved the volumes of foreign exchange trading. This move has enhanced liquidity and the availability of foreign exchange in the Nigerian economy. Notably, the NAFEX rate and the parallel market rate have converged, effectively establishing a unified exchange rate.

These monetary policy efforts have also positively impacted the investment climate, attracting both domestic and foreign investments. The ultimate aim of President Tinubu’s macroeconomic measures is to stabilise the economy to encourage investment. Increased investment leads to higher productivity, economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. As evidenced by recent data, foreign direct investment is on the rise, and portfolio investment has increased substantially compared to the same period last year.

Internal reforms are positively impacting external accounts, with the trading position improving. Both the balance of trade and the current account balance have moved positively, as demonstrated by the comparative figures from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024. Overall, the reforms have positioned the Nigerian economy more favourably on the global stage. The domestic capital market has been on an upswing over the past 12 months, with foreign portfolio investment pouring into the market. Improved yields have provided savers with a good return on investment. This trend is contributing to achieving macroeconomic stability, with government revenues showing growth.

While the independence of the central bank is legally enshrined, there is close collaboration and harmonisation of monetary and fiscal policy. This collaboration is exemplified by the central bank’s elevation of interest rates not just to fight inflation but to encourage dollar inflows. This means that the government must manage higher domestic debt service costs to support the central bank’s signaling that higher rates are necessary to attract foreign inflows. A dedicated committee regularly meets to discuss monetary and fiscal policy, ensuring coordinated efforts to stabilize and advance the economy robustly.

High interest rates are a standard tool globally for combating inflation, and the Nigerian government is committed to this strategy. Allowing inflation to take root would destroy people’s savings, raise the cost of living prohibitively, and make businesses uncompetitive due to escalating costs. Thus, the central bank’s fight against inflation is crucial for economic stability. Some of these issues have been long in the making, and many of the current interventions and reforms should have been implemented earlier. Delayed reforms have increased costs and extended the period required to see their benefits. Despite these challenges, it is essential to look at the data and evidence. Despite elevated interest rates, credit to the private sector is expanding in agriculture, manufacturing, oil and gas, power, and construction. This growth in financing demonstrates how investment can support economic growth even under higher interest rate conditions.

Addressing inflation, rising food prices

In the first half of 2024, addressing inflation has been a critical focus  for the Tinubu administration. The government is working diligently to ensure that revenues meet budget targets, which is essential for maintaining economic stability and funding necessary interventions. The finance minister highlighted that with a successful harvest and reduced post-harvest losses, inflation is expected to decrease to between 20 per cent and 25 per cent, as signaled by the CBN.

The administration is acutely aware of the impact of high food prices on overall inflation. It has declared a war on high food prices, recognising that controlling food inflation is key to reducing the overall consumer price index. Efforts to boost agricultural productivity, improve storage facilities, and enhance distribution networks are aimed at ensuring that food supply meets demand efficiently. These measures are expected to mitigate the factors driving up food prices and, consequently, bring down inflation. In conjunction with these efforts, the government is also managing the total debt stock, expecting it to remain below $95 billion in dollar terms. The budget deficit is targeted to be around 4 per cent, aligning with the government’s fiscal goals. These priorities are part of a broader strategy to stabilise the economy and create a conducive environment for growth and development.

The finance minister emphasised the administration’s commitment to tackling the challenges posed by inflation. “It’s a war to get food prices down. That’s where we are,” he said, underscoring the government’s proactive stance in addressing the issue. This commitment is critical in a democratic setting where social unrest can arise from economic hardships. By focusing on reducing inflation, particularly food prices, the administration aims to alleviate economic pressure on citizens and maintain social stability.

The government’s approach to inflation control is multi-faceted, involving both short-term and long-term measures. In the short term, efforts to ensure a successful harvest and reduce post-harvest losses are crucial. In the long term, structural reforms in agriculture, improvements in infrastructure, and enhanced financial support for farmers are expected to create a more resilient and productive agricultural sector. These initiatives are designed to provide lasting solutions to the problem of high inflation and ensure sustainable economic growth.

Overall, the administration’s strategy to combat inflation reflects a comprehensive and determined effort to address one of the most pressing economic challenges facing Nigeria today. By focusing on key areas such as food prices, debt management, and budgetary discipline, the government aims to create a stable economic environment that supports growth, reduces poverty, and improves the quality of life for all Nigerians.

Foreign investment inflows

A significant focus of the Tinubu administration in the first half of 2024 has been on enhancing foreign investment inflows to stimulate economic growth. One of the cornerstone projects in this effort is the national single window for import and export in the trade sector. This game-changing initiative is ongoing and will be implemented in phases. The first modules are set to be procured and implemented shortly, with an expected economic benefit of $2.7 billion per annum once fully operational.

The administration’s accelerated stabilisation and advancement plan is a short-term economic strategy crafted by President Tinubu’s economic team in collaboration with the private sector and sub-national entities. This plan aims to drive food security, improve the investment climate, and boost the formal production, manufacturing, and industrial sectors. Key executive orders have already enhanced the operating environment and provided better fiscal incentives, attracting significant investments. Notably, a $500 million investment in the gas sector was announced recently, reflecting the improved investment climate. Additionally, there is $7 billion in potential investments poised to enter the oil and gas sector as the new regulatory and fiscal framework is fully implemented. These measures are expected to transform the sector, driving growth and increasing foreign exchange earnings.

The power sector is also receiving attention, with a commitment to ramping up transmission output to 6,000 megawatts. This is part of broader interventions across various sectors, including health and SMEs, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for investment and economic growth. Transparency in foreign exchange earnings is a priority, and the government is committed to updating its portal to provide real-time data on funds earned. This includes detailed information on foreign exchange earnings, ensuring that all Nigerians can access and monitor this crucial economic indicator. Although oil revenues are currently below budget targets, oil production and output are on an upward trajectory, indicating a positive direction for future revenues.

In terms of non-oil exports, the government has introduced incentives to encourage domestic production and lower production costs, which in turn supports export growth. These measures are expected to boost non-oil earnings, contributing to a more diversified and resilient economy. The administration remains optimistic about the potential for increased foreign exchange earnings from both oil and non-oil sectors, driven by ongoing reforms and strategic investments.

Revenue generation

In the first half of 2024, aggregate federal government revenue more than doubled compared to the corresponding period in 2023. This remarkable increase is a testament to the reconfiguration and improvement achieved through the application of technology and the reengineering of government finance processes, particularly in internally generated revenue. A robust system has been put in place to ensure that all revenues rightly belonging to Nigerians are collected into the federal purse rather than being siphoned off elsewhere.

Oil revenue as a percentage of gross revenue increased significantly, reaching 30 per cent compared to just 11 per cent in the first half of 2023. This increase reflects not only higher oil prices but also improved production and sales. Efforts are ongoing to ramp up oil production and sales to the target of 2 million barrels a day, a challenge accepted by the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of NNPC Limited. Achieving this target will significantly boost government revenues, not only in naira terms but also in foreign exchange liquidity for the entire economy.

Non-oil revenue also performed impressively in the first half of 2024, surpassing revenue from the same period in 2023 and exceeding the 2024 budget by 30 per cent. This accomplishment is particularly notable as it was achieved without any increases in taxes. The administration’s focus on improving the fiscal policy landscape has created a more conducive environment for investment, contributing to the robust growth in non-oil revenues.

The government has implemented tighter expenditure management practices relative to revenues, enhancing visibility, transparency, and accountability in government spending. This approach is critical for earning public trust and ensuring that funds are used efficiently and effectively. One key procedural change is the direct payment to contractors, suppliers, and service providers upon completion of procurement exercises, eliminating the previous practice of bulk payments to ministries or agencies. This change reduces opportunities for corruption and ensures that government funds are spent wisely. Moreover, the administration is committed to maximising revenue from elevated oil prices. There is a concerted effort to leverage these high prices to raise sufficient revenue to support the development of Nigeria. In the non-oil sector, marked success has been achieved, with non-oil revenues showing significant growth. These revenues are crucial for funding social services, critical infrastructure, and creating a more favorable environment for investors.

The government’s strategic focus on increasing revenue while managing expenditures prudently is yielding positive results. By ensuring that all revenue streams are efficiently captured and expenditures are transparent and accountable, the administration is building a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth. This approach not only boosts government coffers but also enhances public confidence in how their money is being managed and spent. Overall, the revenue strategies implemented by the Tinubu administration in the first half of 2024 reflect a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach to economic management. By leveraging technology, improving fiscal policies, and ensuring transparent and accountable spending, the government is positioning Nigeria for long-term economic stability and growth.

Debt management, greater fiscal discipline

In the first half of 2024, Nigeria’s debt profile has shown remarkable improvement, reflecting the government’s commitment to prudent fiscal management. The debt in dollar terms has decreased significantly, from $108 billion to $91 billion. This reduction is crucial for an economy that earns foreign currency predominantly through oil revenue, as it positively influences the assessments of rating agencies and other financial stakeholders.

The administration has diligently serviced all loans and obligations, both domestic and international, without resorting to ways and means financing, which can be highly inflationary. This disciplined approach to debt management ensures that the government meets its obligations without exacerbating inflationary pressures. By avoiding ways and means borrowing, the administration has also addressed the N7.3 trillion obligations, effectively paying it back within a year of President Tinubu taking office.

This reduction in reliance on ways and means financing and the diligent servicing of debt have had a positive impact on Nigeria’s overall debt sustainability. The debt service as a percentage of revenue has declined from 97 per cent in the first half of 2023 to 68 per cent in 2024. This significant decrease underscores the government’s resilience and capacity to manage its debt effectively. The intent and commitment are to continue this downward trend, further strengthening Nigeria’s fiscal position.

In addition to reducing the total debt stock, the government has implemented measures to ensure greater fiscal discipline and transparency in debt management. This includes tighter controls on borrowing, more stringent criteria for new debt, and improved oversight of debt servicing. These measures are designed to ensure that Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable and that the government can continue to meet its obligations without compromising economic stability.

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The improved debt position also enhances Nigeria’s ability to attract investment, as a lower debt burden and better debt servicing capabilities make the country a more attractive destination for investors. By reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio and ensuring that debt servicing costs are manageable, the government is creating a more stable and predictable economic environment. Moreover, the administration’s focus on increasing revenues and managing expenditures efficiently has played a critical role in improving the debt situation. By boosting non-oil revenues and ensuring that all revenue streams are effectively captured, the government has increased its fiscal capacity to service debt and invest in critical infrastructure and so cial services.

The government is actively engaged in efforts to attract both domestic and international investment, including a new initiative to issue dollar-denominated securities. This issuance is part of a strategy to tap into the foreign currency held by Nigerians abroad and to support the macroeconomic reforms. Rather than relying on traditional methods such as euro bonds, the government is leveraging the Nigerian financial system to raise $500 million. This approach reflects a broader strategy to involve Nigerians in the nation’s economic revival and to demonstrate confidence in the country’s reform efforts.

The forthcoming issuance is seen as a key opportunity to attract investment and signal a positive shift in Nigeria’s economic trajectory. While the international markets remain an option, the government prioritizes convincing Nigerians to repatriate their funds and participate in the country’s reform success story. Overall, the Tinubu administration’s strategic approach to debt management in the first half of 2024 has yielded positive results. By reducing the total debt stock, avoiding inflationary financing methods, and ensuring diligent debt servicing, the government has strengthened Nigeria’s fiscal position and laid the foundation for sustainable economic growth. This disciplined approach to debt management will continue to be a key pillar of the administration’s economic strategy, ensuring that Nigeria remains on a path of fiscal stability and prosperity.

Improved budget performance

The 2024 budget represents a significant step forward in Nigeria’s fiscal management, with a targeted fiscal deficit of 4.1 per cent of GDP. This is a notable improvement from the 6.1 per cent deficit recorded at the end of 2023. As of mid-2024, the fiscal deficit on an annualised basis stands at 4.4 per cent, indicating that the government is on track to meet its budgetary target. The reduction in the fiscal deficit is a testament to the administration’s commitment to fiscal discipline and responsible budgeting. By aligning expenditure with revenue more closely, the government is working to ensure that the fiscal deficit continues to shrink, thereby reducing the need for excessive borrowing and maintaining economic stability.

This improvement in the budget deficit is a crucial indicator of the government’s fiscal health and its ability to manage public finances effectively. Lowering the deficit not only enhances the country’s fiscal credibility but also creates more room for investment in critical infrastructure and social services without putting undue pressure on the nation’s debt levels. The administration has implemented several measures to achieve this reduction in the fiscal deficit. These include better revenue collection practices, enhanced expenditure controls, and a focus on increasing non-oil revenues. By broadening the revenue base and ensuring efficient use of public funds, the government is creating a more sustainable fiscal environment.

The 2024 budget also reflects a commitment to transparency and accountability in public finance management. By setting realistic targets and closely monitoring budget performance, the government is ensuring that public funds are used effectively and that fiscal policies support long-term economic growth. Overall, the direction of the 2024 budget underscores the administration’s focus on fiscal prudence and economic stability. By targeting a lower fiscal deficit and implementing measures to achieve this goal, the government is strengthening Nigeria’s fiscal position and laying the groundwork for sustainable development. This approach not only benefits the economy in the short term but also sets the stage for long-term prosperity and resilience.

Mortgage financing

The Tinubu administration has taken significant steps to address one of the most pressing needs of ordinary Nigerians: affordable housing. Recognising the critical role that homeownership plays in economic stability and individual well-being, the government has issued a challenge to the private sector’s leading financial minds. This challenge is to create long-term, low-interest mortgage products that are accessible to the average Nigerian.

The goal is ambitious but clear: to provide 25-year mortgages with interest rates in the range of 11 to 12 per cent. This initiative aims to make homeownership a realistic possibility for many Nigerians who currently find it out of reach due to high property prices and prohibitive lending terms. Affordable mortgage financing is not just about providing loans; it’s about aligning these financial products with the income levels of ordinary Nigerians. By offering long-term loans at lower interest rates, the financial burden of purchasing a home can be significantly reduced, allowing more people to achieve the dream of owning their own homes.

This initiative is expected to have a broad impact on the economy. Increased homeownership can stimulate the construction industry, create jobs, and drive demand for related goods and services. Furthermore, it can enhance financial stability for families, providing them with a tangible asset that can appreciate over time. To achieve this, the administration is working closely with the financial sector to design and implement these mortgage products. This involves not only setting favourable interest rates but also ensuring that the terms are flexible, and that the application process is straightforward and accessible. The collaboration aims to break down the barriers that have traditionally made homeownership difficult for many Nigerians.

Moreover, the government is exploring ways to support this initiative through policy measures and incentives. This could include tax breaks for lenders who offer these favourable mortgage terms or direct subsidies to reduce the interest rates further. By creating an enabling environment for affordable housing finance, the administration is taking concrete steps to address the housing deficit and improve living standards. The focus on affordable mortgage financing is part of a broader strategy to enhance financial inclusion and economic equity. Homeownership is a key component of this strategy, as it provides families with stability and a sense of ownership in their communities. By making it easier for Nigerians to own homes, the government is investing in the long-term social and economic health of the nation.

The challenge to the private sector to provide long-term, low-interest mortgages is a bold and forward-thinking move by the Tinubu administration. It addresses a critical need for affordable housing and has the potential to drive significant economic growth and improve the quality of life for millions of Nigerians. Through close collaboration with the financial sector and supportive policy measures, the government is paving the way for a future where homeownership is within reach for all Nigerians.

Energy subsidy

The Tinubu administration has undertaken a substantial shift in its approach to energy subsidies, marking a significant policy change. Technically, the era of fuel subsidies has ended. The 2024 budget does not include any allocations for subsidy payments, and there are no expenditures related to subsidies by the federal government or the federation. This transition has not been without its challenges. The initial response to the foreign exchange market reforms led to a spike in exchange rates, which significantly affected the cost of importing fuel. As a result, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), mandated by law to ensure energy supply, found itself bearing a considerable financial burden. This shift underscores the broader implications of subsidy removal on both the national economy and the energy sector.

One critical factor to consider is the disparity in fuel prices between Nigeria and its neighbouring countries in West and Central Africa. The cost per litre of petrol in these countries is three to four times higher than in Nigeria. This significant price difference has led to an illicit transfer of Nigeria’s wealth and foreign exchange to neighbouring nations, benefiting only a few individuals and exacerbating the issue of fuel smuggling. The removal of subsidies aims to address these imbalances and redirect the financial resources that were previously used for subsidies toward other essential areas. It is a move designed to curb the illegal trade and ensure that the benefits of Nigeria’s oil wealth are retained within the country. This realignment of resources is intended to support other critical sectors of the economy and enhance overall economic stability.

Despite the immediate challenges, the removal of subsidies is part of a broader strategy to reform the energy sector and promote more sustainable practices. It reflects a commitment to address inefficiencies and ensure that resources are allocated more effectively. This policy shift is expected to lead to a more transparent and competitive energy market, ultimately benefiting the Nigerian economy in the long term. The elimination of fuel subsidies represents a significant policy shift aimed at addressing economic imbalances and promoting fairness in the energy sector. While it presents challenges, particularly in terms of adjusting to higher fuel prices and managing the impact on the energy sector, it is a crucial step toward creating a more sustainable and equitable economic environment.

Right to peaceful protest

In a democracy, the right to protest and express dissent is constitutionally guaranteed. The Tinubu administration acknowledges this fundamental right and understands the importance of public expression in a democratic society. However, the government urges patience and understanding regarding the ongoing reforms that, though challenging, are crucial for long-term economic stability. The current economic reforms, while necessary, come with significant costs. Historically, Nigeria spent approximately 2 per cent of its GDP on subsidies, a practice that created substantial economic distortions. The former foreign exchange regime also allowed a select few to benefit disproportionately, leading to significant misalignments in the economy.

 These reforms, though initially painful, are designed to correct these imbalances and set the economy on a path to recovery and growth. The costs of implementing these reforms are evident now, but the anticipated benefits will take time to materialize. The government is committed to addressing these challenges and mitigating their impact on the most vulnerable segments of the population. The administration appeals for more time and understanding from Nigerians as President Tinubu works to alleviate the burden of these reforms, particularly for the poor and vulnerable.