The Nation Newspaper

Category: Special Report

  • The Buhari Years 2015-2023: Worries over debt overhang for incoming administration

    The Buhari Years 2015-2023: Worries over debt overhang for incoming administration

    By the time the life of Muhammadu Buhari government comes to an end on May 29, it will be leaving behind a huge quantum of public debts for the incoming Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu government. In this special report, Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA looks at Nigeria’s debt situation

    Nigeria’s debt profile has been a subject of concern in recent years. With less than a month to the end of the Muhammadu Buhari administration, it has been estimated that the incoming administration will inherit around N77 trillion in public debt.

     As of December 2015, Nigeria’s total debt stock stood at $65.42 billion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO) of Nigeria. Of this amount, $10.7 billion was external debt; while $53.1 billion was domestic debt (N12.6 trillion). By December 2016, Nigeria’s total debt was $57.39 billion, with external debt accounting for $11.41 billion and domestic debt accounting for $45.98 billion. In 2017, Nigeria’s total debt stock rose to $70 billion, with external debt accounting for $18.9 billion and domestic debt accounting for $51.1 billion; while in 2018, the total debt rose to $73.2 billion, with external debt accounting for $22.1 billion and domestic debt accounting for $51.1 billion.

     By December 2019, Nigeria’s total debt was $84.57 billion, with external debt accounting for $27.67 billion and domestic debt accounting for $56.9 billion. In 2020, Nigeria’s total debt rose to $87.24 billion, with external debt accounting for $31.98 billion and domestic debt accounting for $55.26 billion. As of June 2021, Nigeria’s total debt had risen to $95.77 billion, with external debt accounting for $38.3 billion and domestic debt accounting for $57.38 billion or N35 trillion. The story was the same in 2022 as the year ended with a cumulative debt portfolio of N46.25 trillion comprising of N18.70 trillion external component and N27.54 trillion domestic debts.

     By May 29, 2023, it has been estimated that the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari will be leaving behind a debt of N77 trillion. Already, the administration has secured an $800 million fuel subsidy palliative loan from the World Bank and if the National Assembly approves the securitization of the Ways and Means from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country would be moving closer to the N77 trillion mark.

     Speaking on the estimated N77 trillion debt by May, 2023, Director General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Ms Patience Oniha said, “This will be made up of N44.06 trillion total debt stock as of the third quarter of 2022, N22.7 trillion Ways and Means borrowed from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), projected new borrowings of N10.57 trillion captured in the 2023 budget and issuance of Promissory notes.”

     The DMO boss made the disclosure at the “Public Presentation and Breakdown of the Highlights of the 2023 Appropriation Act” in Abuja. She argued that if the National Assembly approves the securitisation of the N22.7 trillion Ways and Means debt secured from the CBN, “it means we will be seeing that figure included in the public debt, you will see significant increase in public debt to N77 trillion; that is if you add the new borrowing depending on market conditions of N5 trillion.”

     It is important to note that Nigeria’s increasing debt profile has been a cause for concern, as it raises questions about the country’s ability to service its debts and invest in critical infrastructure and social services. The Buhari government has stated that it is taking steps to address the country’s debt challenges, including increasing revenue generation and reducing the cost of governance.

     Nigeria’s debt over the years has been used for various purposes, including financing infrastructure projects, funding the budget deficit and servicing existing debts. Here are some specific examples:

     Infrastructure development: A significant portion of Nigeria’s debt has been used to finance infrastructure projects such as road construction, rail projects, and power generation. For instance, the government secured a $500 million loan from the Export-Import Bank of China in 2018 to finance the construction of the Abuja Light Rail project.

     Budget deficit financing: Nigeria has often relied on borrowing to finance its budget deficits, which occur when the government’s expenditures exceed its revenue. Loans are usually obtained from domestic and international sources to cover the shortfall. For instance, in 2020, the government borrowed N2.3 trillion ($6.2 billion) to finance the budget deficit.

     Debt servicing: Another significant use of Nigeria’s debt has been to service existing debts. The government has had to borrow to pay off interest on existing loans and to refinance maturing debt. In 2020, Nigeria spent about 32.5 percent of its revenue on debt servicing.

     It is worth noting that while borrowing can be a useful tool for financing development, excessive borrowing can lead to debt distress, which can have adverse effects on the economy. Therefore, it is important for the Nigerian government to strike a balance between borrowing to finance development and ensuring that the country’s debt levels remain sustainable.

     In specific terms, Nigeria’s debt has been used to finance various infrastructure projects across the country. Here are some examples of key infrastructure projects that have been financed with Nigeria’s debt:

     Railways: Nigeria has invested heavily in its railway system in recent years, with a significant portion of the funding coming from Chinese loans. The country has completed several railway projects, including the Abuja-Kaduna rail line, the Lagos-Ibadan rail line, and the Itakpe-Ajaokuta-Warri rail line.

     Roads: Nigeria has also invested in road infrastructure, with a focus on improving connectivity between major cities and ports. Some notable road projects that have been financed with debt include the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, the Second Niger Bridge, and the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano road.

     Power: Nigeria has been working to improve its electricity infrastructure, with a focus on expanding access to power and reducing the cost of electricity. The country has financed several power projects with debt, including the Azura-Edo power plant, the Zungeru hydroelectric power project, and the Mambilla hydroelectric power project.

     Airports: Nigeria has also invested in upgrading its airport infrastructure, with a focus on improving safety and security and expanding capacity. Some notable airport projects that have been financed with debt include the rehabilitation of the runway at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja and the construction of a new terminal at the Port Harcourt International Airport.

     Overall, Nigeria’s debt has been used to finance a range of infrastructure projects that are aimed at improving the country’s economic productivity, enhancing social welfare, and promoting regional integration. The Buhari administration has faced criticisms for its handling of Nigeria’s public debt.

     While the administration has made efforts to diversify the country’s revenue sources and reduce borrowing, Nigeria’s debt profile has continued to rise over the years. Here are some specific points to consider:

     Increase in debt stock: Under the Buhari administration, Nigeria’s debt stock has increased significantly. For instance, between 2015 and 2022, Nigeria’s debt stock rose from N12,60 trillion to N46,25 trillion.

     Increase in debt servicing: The Buhari administration has also had to spend a significant portion of Nigeria’s revenue on servicing the country’s debts. In 2020, Nigeria spent about 32.5 percent of its revenue on debt servicing and by 2022 it spent over 96 percent of its revenue servicing debts. This has limited the government’s ability to invest in critical infrastructure and social services.

     Borrowing for recurrent expenditure: There have been concerns that the Buhari administration has borrowed excessively to finance recurrent expenditure, such as salaries and overheads, rather than investing in capital projects that can generate revenue and boost the economy.

     Efforts to reduce borrowing: The Buhari administration has made efforts to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on borrowing. For instance, the government has increased efforts to diversify the economy, boost revenue generation by plugging leakages, and cut down on wasteful spending. Additionally, the government has taken steps to increase non-oil revenue, such as increasing tax collection and improving the ease of doing business.

     To a large extent, while the Buhari administration has made efforts to address Nigeria’s debt challenges, the country’s debt profile has continued to rise. Ms Patience Oniha, Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), has made several statements about Nigeria’s debt in recent years. In March 2021, she stated that Nigeria’s debt was sustainable, despite the country’s rising debt profile. She noted that the debt to GDP ratio was still within the threshold of 40 percent, which is the limit set by the government, and that the government was committed to borrowing for productive purposes. In October 2020, she noted that Nigeria had borrowed a total of N2.1trillion ($5.5billion) from the domestic market to finance the 2020 budget deficit, and that the country’s debt level was still manageable.

     In June 2019, she stated that Nigeria’s debt was not too high, and that the government was borrowing to finance capital projects that would help to grow the economy. Overall, Ms Oniha has emphasised that Nigeria’s debt is being managed responsibly, and that the government is borrowing for productive purposes that will help to stimulate economic growth and development.

     When Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is sworn in as President of Nigeria on May 29, one of the key challenges he would face is managing the country’s debt profile. Nigeria’s debt has been rising in recent years. Here are some general principles that could guide the incoming administration in managing Nigeria’s debt profile:

     Focus on sustainable borrowing: The government should be careful to borrow only for productive purposes and ensure that the borrowing is sustainable over the long term. This means balancing the need to invest in infrastructure and other productive sectors with the need to avoid excessive debt accumulation that could undermine the country’s economic stability.

     Enhance revenue generation: One way to reduce the pressure on Nigeria’s debt profile is to increase revenue generation. This could be done by broadening the tax base, reducing wasteful spending, and improving the efficiency of revenue collection.

     Improve debt management: The government should strengthen its debt management framework to ensure that debt is contracted at the lowest possible cost and that debt servicing is manageable. This could involve developing a debt sustainability framework, improving debt monitoring and reporting, and enhancing debt transparency.

     Pursue structural reforms: To address the root causes of Nigeria’s debt accumulation, the government should pursue structural reforms that promote economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. This could involve improving the business environment, promoting private sector investment, and investing in human capital development.

     Overall, managing Nigeria’s debt profile will require a comprehensive and coordinated approach that balances the need for investment and growth with the need for fiscal prudence and debt sustainability.

  • Suicide weapons in your refrigerator

    Suicide weapons in your refrigerator

    With the upsurge in non-communicable diseases (NCD) deaths in Nigeria linked to alleged increase in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), TAIWO ALIMI evaluates the health problem and the way out.

    • How soft, energy drinks are killing more Nigerians than malaria
    • Experts blame surge in obesity, cardiovascular diseases on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs)
    • Nigeria is world’s fourth, Africa’s highest consumer of SSBs

    Lagos resident Philip Akwe has been battling with diabetes for two and a half decades. He had joined a private  company as a driver when he was in his early 20s, and his job entailed lots of travels across the country.

    Akwe soon became addicted to energy drinks and soda, popularly called soft drinks, to keep him ‘on the go.’ The first sustained him whenever he embarked on any of the long journeys  across states, while the other kept him stable in between meals. 

    Consumption of the sugar-sweetened beverages  thus became a daily routine. By the time he got to his 40s, his drinking habit had begun to take a toll on his health.

    The first symptoms were dizziness and tiredness. A visit to the hospital and the series of medical tests that followed confirmed that he had diabetes; a condition that forced him into early retirement.

    “I did not know I had any condition until I began to feel weak a lot of the time and could not function well at work,” he said.

    “When I was eventually told I had diabetes, it was too late. I was told I would  have to live with it for the rest of my life.

    “My sugar level was high and I developed high blood pressure (HBP) too. They said I would  have to manage it.”

    With him out of job and his source of income gone, Akwe became dependent on his nucleus family, and that compounded his ordeal.

    He said: “I became a liability to my family. My wife and two children stood by me and cared for me as no income was forthcoming.

    “I sold my bus and some property to be able to afford medicine and medical care, but the money was gone in no time.

    “My wife used to be a petty trader. As a result of my illness, we started dipping hands into her business capital, and soon that was gone too.

    “I lost a lot of weight and became a shadow of myself. Instead of using the little money we had to eat, we would be thinking about hospital bills and how to buy tester kits and insulin.

    “I was building a family house but had to stop midway due to the expenses. We had to move into the half-finished building.”

    When the  financial challenge kept mounting, Akwe and his small family had to relocate to his village home in Delta State three years ago.

    “I am still living with the illness, but it is more bearable because village life is not as expensive as the city. I also use local herbs in my treatment and there is access to natural and fresh food like vegetables and fruits,” he said. 

    For all the trouble, Akwe seems luckier than Edo State-born Godfrey Imaseun, 65.

    Imaseun did not live to tell his own story after succumbing to a prolonged cardiovascular disease that triggered a mix of HBP, stomach disorder and diabetes.

    His widow, Christy, said Imaseun lived a healthy life for much of his working life. He was neither  a heavy consumer of alcohol nor a smoker.

    But  he loved to take sugary things, according to the widow.

    She added: “He said he had a sugary mouth. It was in his early 50s that he developed HBP and within some years it became worse and his weight started dropping.

    “It got to a point where he could not retain any food in his stomach. He would either  throw up or visit the toilet immediately. He began to fall sick and spent the last 10 years of his life more on hospital beds than  his own bed.

    “He passed away in 2022.

    “The night before he passed, he said he was tired and needed to go home to rest. My husband was dead tired from the illness.”

    Akwe and Imaseun are two of the hundreds of patients done in by their addiction to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), blamed  for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity, diabetes, overweight, cardiovascular diseases, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases.

    What are NCDs?

    NCDs are enduring diseases, draining and sometimes incurable. They potentially drain sufferers and their families of funds and, often, run them into  debts.

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), NCDs accounted for an estimated 29 per cent of all deaths in Nigeria in 2018. This is approximately 617,300 deaths in one year and more than three times the number of malaria fatalities in the country, which stood at 200,000 in 2021.    

    Sadly, SSBs are all around us. They are the sugar and colour  bottles and plastic drinks  in our fridges, department stores, mega supermarkets, and in the nooks and crannies of our streets.

    “Examples of SSBs are carbonated drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks, sweetened tea and coffee, fruit flavoured drinks, flavoured water among others. These beverages are known to have little or no nutritional value.”

    For years, Akwe lived with the impression that energy drinks were  safe for him to consume.

    “I knew soft drinks had a lot of sugar and felt energy drinks were okay,” he said.

    WHO has categorised energy drinks and fruit juices under SSBs, to prove they are not free of sugar. They are as injurious to health as soft drinks.  

    WHO says while 100% fruit juices may not contain added sugars, they have been classified with SSBs because they contain a significant amount of ‘free sugar.’

    Free sugar includes monosaccharides and disaccharides added to foods and beverages by the manufacturer, cook, or consumer, and sugars naturally present in honey, syrups, fruit juices and fruit juice concentrates.

    Experts’ opinions

    Dr. Adeniyi Samuel Oginni, a public health expert, minces no word about the threat posed to consumers’ health  by SSBs.

     “Many studies have connected excessive sugar and SSBs consumption to NCDs as obesity, diabetes, overweight, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and chronic respiratory diseases,” he said.

    The pioneer chairman, the Forum of CEOs of State Social Health Insurance Agencies in Nigeria added: “NCDs account for 70 per cent of annual global mortality of all deaths worldwide, which is about 40 million individuals.

    “Over 40 per cent of these fatalities involve adults between the ages of 30 and 69, and 80 per cent of these premature deaths take place in low-and middle-income nations.

    “Of these figures, cardiovascular disease is more pronounced and fatal. It accounts for 40 per cent of all NCD-related fatalities each year, followed by cancers (22%), respiratory illnesses (10%), and diabetes (4%), respectively.”

    WHO warns that  Nigerians have 20 per cent chance of dying prematurely from NCDs.

    Connection between SSBs and NCDs

    Dr. Francis Fagbule, a periodontology and community dentistry, shares Oginni’s view  on the strong connection between SSBs consumption and NCDs, saying: “We have people who think SSBs are cool and even convey status on consumers.

    “It is stable in our diet. Instead of drinking water after a meal, we order a soft drink to show we are of higher status.”

    According to Statista, in 2014, Nigerians consumed 6 billion litres of carbonated drinks otherwise called soft drinks, and about 5 billion litres of bottled water.

    By 2020, the amount of Soda consumed had nearly doubled to 10 billion litres while water consumption increased slightly to 6.5 billion litres.

    By 2022, the trend had risen to about 13 billion litres of Soda ingested and 6.4 billion litres of bottled water consumed in the same year.

    There was a drop in the amount of water consumed by Nigerians and an overwhelming rise in Soda.

    It is projected that by 2027, over 18 billion litres of Soda will be consumed as against less than 6 billion water taken.

    Statista also pointed to the fact that medium-income Nigerians indulged more in SSBs consumption.

    In 2022, 68.3 per cent of people in low and medium-income classes consumed SSBs while 31.7 per cent in the high-income bracket ingested these high risks drinks.

    The result was an increased prevalence of NCD sufferers among Nigerians less than 20 years old.

    Significantly, more Nigerians became hypertensive according to data obtained from Statista. It shows that in 1995, 4.3 million (8.6%) were hypertensive patients, and it rose to 27.5 million (32.5%) in 2022.

    Of this number, over 70 per cent of the cases were not aware of their hypertension and only 12 per cent were on treatment. This is the cause of the upsurge in NCD deaths in recent times.

    The result for type 2 diabetes is similar. There has been an astronomical increase among Nigerians.

    “In 1990, two (2) per cent cases of Nigerians between the ages 20 and 79 were recorded representing 874,000 Nigerians. By 2015, the figure jumped to 4.7 million (5.7 per cent). 

    Juxtaposing SSBs consumption and NCD prevalence, Fagbule concluded that an increase in SSBs consumption coincides with the increase in NCD burden in Nigeria.

    Dr. Oginni agrees with him: “Nigerians are consuming an increasing amount of sugary beverages and obesity is increasing at the same time.

    “NCDs like diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and stroke are all recognized to be at increased risk due to obesity.”

    According to WHO, those who frequently drink sugar-sweetened beverages (one to two cans a day or more) have a 26% higher risk of getting type 2 diabetes than those who do not.

    Obesity as the new killer

    The matter is made worse because there is no end in sight going by the growing number of children and young people at the risk of NCDs through childhood and adolescent obesity.

    Sadly, it is parents that fueled the latest trend, owing to their choice of foods for their wards from infancy.

    Dr. Oginni explains. “Rather than encourage our kids to take more of water, which has zero sugar, we put soft drinks and other SSBs in their lunch box. And when they begin to gain excess weight, people say it is a sign of affluence and healthy living. This is far from the truth.”

    A popular 35CL bottle of soft drink in Nigeria contains 13 cubes of sugar and calories taken, which exceed the usual calorie intake. It promotes weight accumulation and obesity development.

    “Higher sugar and fructose consumption in adolescents has been associated with insulin resistance and increased type 2 diabetes risk,” he added.

    Such adolescent also stands the risk of HBP and a greater risk of hypertension in life.

    The picture thus painted is that of a bleak future with millions of sick adults putting more burden on the already overstretched resources of the country. 

    It is a burden Nigeria cannot bear given the economic indexes and other health challenges cum disappearing budgets given to the health sector every year.

    Today, obesity and overweight are the most common disorders connected to sugar and they are linked to other health issues including diabetes, heart disease, certain forms of cancer and stroke.

    Obesity-related disorders are now among the top three deaths worldwide, according to World Bank 2020 research.

    In reality, obesity and overweight are regarded as modern epidemics. These are said to be the greatest public health issues now affecting the whole globe.

    Dejectedly, Nigeria is the largest consumer of SSBs in Africa and the fourth-largest consumer of SSBs in the world, according to Statista.

    The 2020 survey revealed that obesity (6.5%) was among the population’s significant cardiovascular risk factors, including smoking and alcohol intake, with a generally male majority.

    It means that almost 12 million people are  estimated to be obese in Nigeria, with children, teenagers and women experiencing the condition at significantly greater rates. It is a burden Nigeria’s lean resources and poor economy cannot afford.

     The way out

    The above figures and opinions of experts have shown that education and enlightenment are not having the desired impact. The popular opinion is for government to legislate measures that can help in reducing SSBs consumption.  

    Austin Iraoya of Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (SCEA) seeks  the immediate implementation of the passed SSB tax to discourage the sale and purchase of SSBs.

    The SSB tax was signed into law in Nigeria as part of the 2021 Finance Act. It adds 10 naira to the cost of each litre of all non-alcoholic and SSBs.

    The Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health published a study in 2019 on how nations might reduce the prevalence of NCDs by pricing unhealthy goods, including SSBs, alcohol and tobacco.

    The task committee estimated that if countries enacted tax increases big enough to boost prices of cigarettes, alcohol, and sweet beverages by 50% over the next 50 years, more than 50 million premature deaths may be avoided.

    Dr. Iraoya says:  “The tax will increase the retail price of SSBs and reduce their purchase and consumption thereby reducing free sugar intake in the population, particularly among low-income consumers, youth and children.

    “Such legislation will also raise public awareness while giving incentives to industries to formulate sugar-free products.

    “Through it, the government can also generate significant revenue, which may be earmarked for financing the health sector, improving public health and wellbeing.”

    Dr. Oginni stresses: “The economic  case for higher tax for SSB is that when the price of a commodity suddenly rises, the demand reduces and the need for consumption of this commodity reduces.

    “Hence, the higher the tax per litre of SSBs the higher the increase in the price of the commodities and the less available it will be to persons in the lower income bracket and a disincentive to even those in the higher income bracket.

    “This in turn reduces the consumption of SSBs and the risk factor of the prevalence of obesity and diabetes reduces significantly and also lowers healthcare costs.”

    He said the current National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) Law, 2022, seeks to provide health care to 83 million vulnerable Nigerians living in poverty.

    The SSBs tax can form part of the revenue sources for the funding of this, which if well implemented will push Nigeria forward in her quest to achieve UHC for her citizens.

     How Mexico, others are confronting the challenge

    Nigeria will not be the first to use this law to fight SSBs. Some countries of the world have practised it with success.

    Mexico has long been one of the world’s top users of sweetened beverages. It had the highest prevalence of adult obesity among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s members, according to a 2013 research.

    The government imposed a tax on SSBs in 2014, and two years later, the poorest families were purchasing 11.7% fewer sugary drinks than the average Mexican population as a whole.

    South African also imposed a 10% sugar tax in 2018 that immediately reduced the amount of sugar people consumed from sweetened beverages. According to a recent report, the amount per person per day decreased from 16.25 g before the tax to 14.26g instantly and then to 10.63g the next year.

    Saudi Arabia experienced a 58 per cent reduction in consumption of taxed SSBs.

    More than 50 additional countries have imposed taxes on SSBs.They include  Chile,  UK, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Morocco, Mauritius, Seychelles, Norway, Finland Belgium, France, Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Bermuda, and the USA.

    A communiqué released at the end of a regional stakeholders’ forum for Southwest zone on SSBs tax, held in Lagos recently, asked  the Federal Government to, as a matter of urgency, increase taxation on SSBs towards achieving 20% of the retail price as recommended by WHO.

    The stakeholders meeting was attended by prominent individuals and organisations including the Nigeria Customs Service, National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), media representatives, nutrition-focused and public health civil society organisations, the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA) as well as state agencies such as the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service; Ministry of Health, Oyo State; Ministry of Health, Osun State; and the Osun State Health Insurance Agency.

    It enjoined government and policymakers to engage and collaborate with relevant stakeholders, including civil society organisations, media institutions, and healthcare professionals to create public awareness of the health risks associated with SSB consumption and the benefits of the SSBs tax policy, among other measures to checkmate surge in SSBs consumption. 

    It said: “Government should establish a monitoring and evaluation and accountability framework to track the implementation and impact of the current SSB tax policy and implement complementary regulatory instruments like Front-of-Pack Labeling, restricting availability and marketing of SSBs in school environments, among others.”

  • Malaria: Tackling the burden, obstacles to eradicating a silent killer

    Malaria: Tackling the burden, obstacles to eradicating a silent killer

    With the provisional approval for the use of the new anti-malaria vaccine, the R21 vaccine will soon begin to roll out in immunisation programmes for children under three-year-old, and hopes have been raised of an end to the malaria scourge in Nigeria. Today, as the world celebrates the 2023 Malaria Day, CHINAKA OKORO and CHINYERE OKOROAFOR take a look at the prospect of the new initiative to end malaria in a country with the world’s highest malaria burden

    The mood, especially in Nigeria and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, is unusually upbeat. If all global plans work out well as envisaged, malaria will soon stop to be a silent killer in all tropical climates. As a result of this good news, many Nigerians and other Africans are ecstatic that the 20 million doses of the newly approved anti-malaria vaccine will be available to purchase any time from now.

     In Nigeria, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has approved the R21 malaria vaccine manufactured by the Serum Institute of India – making Nigeria the second country to approve the new malaria vaccine developed at the University of Oxford, after Ghana. While announcing the approval recently, the Director General of NAFDAC, Prof Mojisola Adeyeye, said the vaccine is for the prevention of clinical malaria in children from 5 months to 36 months of age.

    She said the country expects to get at least 100,000 doses of the vaccine in donations soon before the market authorisation will start making other arrangements with the National Primary Health Care Development Agency. “NAFDAC in exercising its mandate as stipulated by its enabling law, NAFDAC Act CapN1, LFN 2004 is granting registration approval for R21 Malaria Vaccine (Recombinant, Adjuvanted) manufactured by Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd. The Marketing Authorization Holder is Fidson Healthcare Ltd in line with the Agency’s Drug and Related Products Registration Regulation 2021.

     “The R21 Malaria vaccine is an adjuvanted protein vaccine presented as a sterile solution. A dose which is 0.5ml is composed of R21 Malaria antigen 5µg and Matrix-M1 50µg as an adjuvant filled in a vial as a ready-to-use liquid formulation for intramuscular injection. The vaccine is indicated for the prevention of clinical malaria in children from 5 months to 36 months of age. The storage temperature of the vaccine is 2-8 °C.”

     Over the years, four African countries have accounted for just over half of all malaria deaths worldwide: Nigeria (31.3%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (12.6%), United Republic of Tanzania (4.1%) and Niger (3.9%). In Nigeria, 97 per cent of the population are at risk of malaria. 

    Efforts towards a malaria-free world

    Several efforts have been made toward ensuring that humankind is free from malarial attacks, with the World Health Organisation (WHO) spearheading the fight against malaria in a variety of ways. In its determination to achieve a relatively malaria-free world, WHO established World Malaria Day (WMD) in 2000 as a global healthcare awareness event to draw the global attention of the various local and government healthcare authorities and policymakers to promote the action required to combat and eradicate malaria globally.

     This year’s theme of WMD is, “Time to Deliver Zero-malaria: Invest, Innovate, Implement.” This is meant to urge global leaders to invest in efforts to defeat malaria by ensuring funding is prioritised for the most marginalised and hard-to-reach populations who are less able to access services and hardest hit when they become ill. It also includes efforts to step up innovation and add influential voices to those calling for innovations that bring new vector-control approaches, diagnostics and medicines to accelerate progress against malaria. “Implement the strategies we have now. There is an urgent need to make more effective use of available tools and strategies to prevent, diagnose and treat malaria, particularly among unreached populations,” WHO has said.

     Several key messages could be gleaned from this theme. The major works are to invest. According to WHO’s World Malaria report of last year, the funding gap between the amount invested in the global malaria response, which stood at US$ 3.5 billion even though the resources needed are in the range of US$ 7.3 billion, has widened, particularly over the past three years – increasing from a shortfall of US$ 2.6 billion in 2019 to US$ 3.5 billion in 2020 and US$ 3.8 billion in 2021. In the circumstances, therefore, member countries are urged to show more commitment to investing in programmes aimed at eradicating malaria across the globe.

     Another clarion call by WHO on member countries toward attaining substantial achievement in winning the war against the malaria scourge is to engage in innovation. It noted that despite recent setbacks in malaria control, investments in research and development (R&D) played a crucial role in reducing the global burden of malaria over the last two decades. The development and massive roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) have been the backbone of the malaria response since 2000.

     The world health agency opined that continued investment in the development and deployment of next-generation tools will be crucial to achieving the 2030 global malaria targets. Lastly, WHO urges malaria-affected countries and partners to strongly encourage the deliverance of the WHO-recommended tools and strategies that are available now for all at risk of malaria–and particularly those most vulnerable. The WHO maintains that, through the instrumentality of World Malaria Day, there have been major highlights about the global efforts to control malaria and celebrating the gains that have been made. It added that since 2000, the world has made historic progress against malaria, thereby saving millions of lives worldwide.

     This said, how committed is Nigeria to investing, innovating and implementing the various global programmes in order to deliver zero malaria by 2030? Will the country shift the goalpost as it does when it comes to realising targets for the citizens? Will the country show sufficient commitment toward regarding the WMD as a platform to grab global attention and aid in reducing the risk of people being affected by malaria?

    Why the world needs to fight malaria to a standstill

    Malaria is precisely one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, accounting for over 21.9 crore cases and 4.35 lakh deaths in 2017 globally. In order to curb the count, increasing awareness about this disease and its prevention is a top priority, which includes educating the public on early symptoms, precautions, and treatment options. Research studies have shown early diagnosis, and treatment of malaria can reduce the mortality rate by increasing awareness of malaria symptoms and its prevention.

    A parasitic infection, malaria, is spread by the female (Anopheles) mosquito and can cause severe, sometimes fatal illness. Malaria threatens 200 crore people every year, including residents of 90 endemic countries and 12.5 crore international tourists. Plasmodium parasites acquire a complex life cycle that results in periodic fevers. Most patients recover quickly from malaria symptoms after treatment, but severe complications such as severe malarial anaemia, cerebral malaria, coma, or death can occur if treatment is delayed.

     With the high incidences of malaria scourge in Nigeria; she suffers the world’s greatest malaria burden, with approximately 51 million cases and 207,000 deaths reported annually (approximately 30 per cent of the total malaria burden in Africa), while 97 per cent of the total population (approximately 173 million) is at risk of infection, the country should take concrete steps to eradicate malaria.

     How could she achieve this? Health specialists have maintained that “for Nigeria to progress in the control and eradication of malaria, it should implement a combination of measures that include mosquito avoidance, improved access to diagnostics and treatment, health education and promotion and community partnership. Is it possible to eradicate malaria in Nigeria? Yes, it is possible by “incorporating the World Health Organisation-recommended core interventions. One of these is vector control: Protective measures such as insecticide-treated materials, spraying to kill mosquito larvae and indoor spraying. The other is diagnostic testing and prompt treatment with effective medicines.”

     Taking certain precautions is necessary for malaria prevention and control in Nigeria. This could be through engaging in prevention programmes that focus on the promotion and use of mosquito bed nets, called Long Lasting Insecticide-treated Nets (LLINS), along with educating families and healthcare providers on the importance of using bed nets to prevent mosquito bites, the mode of transmission for malaria.

     Malaria is a life-threatening disease spread to humans by some types of mosquitoes. It is mostly found in tropical countries. It is preventable and curable. Symptoms can be mild or life-threatening. Mild symptoms are fever, chills and headache. Severe symptoms include fatigue, confusion, seizures, and difficulty in breathing.

     One is infested with malaria when a mosquito infected with parasites bites one and transfers the parasite to one. One can’t get malaria just by being near a person who has the disease. Malaria is spread when an infected Anopheles mosquito bites a person. Several other factors contribute to the prevalence of malaria in the country. One of these factors is weather conditions. Nigeria experiences a tropical climate with rainy and dry weather conditions that are witnessed interchangeably year-round.

     Another factor is poor sanitary conditions. Here, poor personal hygiene arises from either intentional or unintentional neglect of one’s body’s cleanliness and health requirements. One’s body begins to look unhealthy, one begins to experience unwanted health concerns, and one’s overall well-being is affected. Access to quality health care or lack of it contributes to the malaria scourge in Nigeria. Access to comprehensive, quality healthcare services is important for promoting and maintaining health, preventing and managing disease, reducing unnecessary disability and premature death, and achieving health equity for all.

     According to the latest World Malaria report, there were 247 million cases of malaria in 2021 compared to 245 million cases in 2020. The estimated number of malaria deaths stood at 619, 000 in 2021 compared to 625, 000 in 2020. According to WHO, continued investment in the development and deployment of next-generation tools will be key to achieving the 2030 global malaria targets. It said: “In the vector control space, there are 28 new products in the Research and Development pipeline. Tools under evaluation include, for example, new types of insecticide-treated nets, targeted baits that attract mosquitoes, spatial repellents, lethal house lures (eaves tubes) and genetic engineering of mosquitoes. Should these tools demonstrate efficacy in controlling the disease, WHO will develop new policy recommendations or amend existing ones to support their deployment in malaria-affected countries?

     “A number of malaria vaccines are currently in development. Like the RTS,S vaccines, many of them target the malaria parasite before it enters the human liver where it can quickly multiply. The most advanced of these candidates is R21, which recently completed Phase 3 clinical trials. Other vaccine candidates seek to stop transmission of the malaria parasite, and still, others to protect women during pregnancy.

     “New diagnostics are also on the way. To address problems around HRP2/3 gene deletions, which compromise the performance of RDTs that detect P. falciparum malaria, researchers are pursuing the development of diagnostics that use alternative biomarkers. Non-invasive diagnosis using saliva and urine is another growing area of investigation, with the potential for rapid screening outside of conventional medical settings.

     “In the field of anti-malarial medicines, developing non-ACT treatment options is a priority for researchers in the face of the emergence and spread of partial resistance to artemisinin. Next-generation medicines are in the development pipeline – such as “triple ACTs” that rely on a combination of artemisinin and 2 partner drugs to mitigate the risk of drug resistance. Other medicines under evaluation use different chemical entities as an alternative to artemisinin and its derivate; four such medicines are currently in clinical trials.”

    Drop in Nigeria’s malaria prevalence – report not good news

    When the report of 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (NMIS) report was unveiled in November 2022, there was nobody singing the victory song. At the time, the report said malaria prevalence in the country has decreased from 23 per cent in 2018 to 22 per cent in 2021 – an insignificant drop not worth celebrating as a national feat.

    Sadly, the NMIS report also showed that malaria prevalence is highest among children aged 48 to 59 months, with the highest prevalence in Nigeria’s northwest states (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara) at 51.6 per cent. These, among other findings, were disclosed in Abuja at the official launch of the NMIS report and the National Advocacy, Communication, and Strategy and Implementation Guide.

     What the report showed is that malaria is still a major public health challenge in the country, in spite local and international efforts to reduce the prevalence and impact of the disease. “56 per cent of households own at least one insecticide-treated net. 31 per cent of women aged 15-49 took three or more doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine/Fansider during their last pregnancy. Eight of all children aged six to 59 months have severe anaemia. Severe anaemia is most common in the northwest zone. Among children under-five with fever who took an antimalarial, 74 per cent received ACT. 81 per cent of women cited that there are ways to avoid getting malaria; among these 83 per cent cited sleeping under a mosquito net or ITN,” the report said.

     At the event, the Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire, said malaria accounts for 60 per cent of outpatient visits to health facilities, 30 per cent of childhood deaths, 11 per cent of maternal death (4,500 die yearly), and 25 per cent of deaths in infants (children aged <1 year). According to the 2021 World Malaria Report from the World Health Organisation, Nigeria contributes 27 per cent to the global malaria burden (one out of every four persons having malaria) and 32 per cent to malaria deaths globally (about one out of every three deaths).

     Dr. Ehanire said about 10 persons die in Nigeria every hour due to malaria or malaria-related issues. “Children under five years of age remain the most vulnerable group affected by malaria accounting for 67 per cent of all malaria deaths. It is a major cause of school absenteeism and low productivity. It is pertinent to note that the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and its partners have made consistent and concerted efforts over the years in providing resources towards the elimination of malaria in the country, and this has resulted to millions of lives being saved. The 2021 World Malaria Report estimates that 1.7 billion malaria cases and 10.6 million malaria deaths were averted worldwide in the period between 2000–2020 and that most of the cases (82 per cent) and deaths (95 per cent) averted were in the WHO African Region,” he said.

     The Minister added that the government with other development partners has implemented three rounds of MIS so far. “Significant declines have also been observed at the zonal and state levels. The third round of MIS was implemented in 2021, the report of which we are launching today. We are seeing gains being sustained in getting the general population to adopt key preventive measures. 56 per cent of households own at least one ITN while 36 per cent of household members, 41 per cent of children under five, and 50 per cent of pregnant women slept under an ITN the night before the survey. 31 per cent of women took at least three doses of SP/Fansidar for the prevention of malaria in pregnancy while 45 per cent took at least two doses up from 17 per cent and 40 per cent respectively in 2018.

     “When we look at the percent who slept under an ITN the night before the survey among households with at least one ITN then we see the percentages rise (59 per cent of household members, 64 per cent of children under five, and 73 per cent of pregnant women). This underscores the importance of access, and therefore our drive to use all means including rolling mass campaigns to reach the teaming populations of Nigeria with nets.

     “But we have noted that we are still not seeing the substantial gains we wish to see. Malaria prevalence is still higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. We are observing a shift in the disease patterns among the various age groups with prevalence increasing with age, and those more than five years having more episodes of malaria (not tracked in the current NMIS). These call for some shifts in the way we do things, especially in promoting health-seeking behaviours within the general populace,” he said.

    Eliminating malaria by 2030: How feasible?

    The Federal Government has launched a council to eradicate malaria by 2030. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote was named as the leader of the council. Africa accounts for the vast majority of deaths from the mosquito-borne disease, with nearly a third of victims in Nigeria. But Africa has struggled to eliminate the disease.

    End Malaria Council (EMC) took place recently at the Presidential Banquet Hall in Abuja. During the event, President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated the 16-member committee, which will oversee an effort to eliminate malaria in Nigeria within the next seven years. Buhari said the council will advocate for more funding to sustain anti-malaria projects in the country.

     “Our inauguration will ensure that malaria elimination remains a priority on our agenda with strong political commitment from leaders at all levels. The successful implementation of the council’s agenda will result in improvement in the quality of life,” he said.

  • For Tinubu’s government of national competence

    For Tinubu’s government of national competence

    By Philip Ojo

    No doubt, one of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s unique selling points is his ability to identify talents. It is certain that the first task for Tinubu is not forming a government of national competence; rather, it is to have a clear understanding of what he wants for Nigeria. Thereafter, getting the team to deliver comes next.

     In answering the question of what Tinubu wants for Nigeria, I took a quick sojourn to refresh my thought on what Tinubu’s plan entails as contained in his documentary titled renewed hope. The 80-page action plan is loaded with beautiful thoughts. It’s an action plan that needs a serious-minded team to execute. In some cases, these plans had their goals and intended solution.

     The promise to bring back the commodity board which had been abandoned for so long, the creation of grain reserves and food storage, rural infrastructural development, irrigation, access to finance, and farm cooperative among others are well thought-out. That’s just on agriculture; he still has unambiguous plans on national security, economy, power, oil and gas, education, and health care, among other very important sectors.

     For ministerial lobbying, this area comes with many complexities, scheming, and state political peculiarity. Notwithstanding all these, Tinubu must look deep for productive personalities and not replicate a retirement benefit for former governors or political big-wigs. I had run some investigative checks on what’s disrupting the political space in Oyo State with regard to ministerial nomination speculations. I used the word ministerial aspirant because it is more of another contest for who would be Tinubu’s pick to fill in the ministerial slot for the state.

     The mere fact that Teslim Folarin was unable to unseat Seyi Makinde had made the ministerial contest even more competitive among the gladiators. Folarin has a national political war chest within the APC, and many had speculated that he may be compensated for losing the governorship race by a ministerial nomination. But this reminded me how Sunday Dare was appointed minister and Adebayo Adelabu was also not compensated for the 2019 defeat.

     If I were to pick for Tinubu, my choice would be Prof. Abideen Olaiya. His credential in politics and profession is a good catch for Asiwaju’s passionate drive for agricultural revival and food stability. Just like Prof. Ali Pantami’s success in the Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy, Prof Abideen Olaiya has the pedigree to do the magic in the agriculture ministry, especially at this critical time when Tinubu needs extraordinary performers and technocrats.

     Besides professional competence, Prof. Olaiya is a loyal member of the party that has made certain sacrifices as his ambition is for his party’s success. Prof. Olaiya is a sincere and dedicated advocate of good governance, a competent professional in agriculture, education, value reorientation and Youth development.

     Prof. Olaiya was also involved in the establishment and management of private educational institutions from essential to tertiary levels, contributing immensely to the attainment of millennium development goals in the educational sector.

    • Ojo, a public affairs analyst, sent in this piece from Oyo State

  • How Nigeria fared in Chinese loans repayment

    How Nigeria fared in Chinese loans repayment

    Three years ago, there was a lot of noise over the safety or otherwise of the country’s national infrastructure provided with loans from China. This time around, there are fears that Nigeria may have defaulted in its servicing of some of these Chinese loans. Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA looks at the issues surrounding China’s loan to Nigeria.

    Once again, the issue of Nigeria’s indebtedness to China has raised concerns over the country’s ability to pay back. Nigerians are afraid that their beloved country might forfeit valuable national assets to China in the event of a default. News broke recently that Nigeria has failed to fully service its debt to China. In the last two years, Nigeria has failed to meet its N110.31 billion debt service obligations to China, the report said. This report has been contested by the Debt Management Office (DMO), but questions still remain unanswered.

    Argument for default

     The argument for default is hinged on the inability of the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) to generate enough revenue from its services to offset the loans incurred for its modernisation. The DMO, on its website, has put the principal fee from January 2021 to December 2022 at N69,009,417,500 ($153.85 million) with interest charges put at N41,311,455,000 ($92.1 million) for the period.nThe Federal Government incurred these debts for the completion of the Idu-Kaduna section of the Nigeria Railway Modernisation Project; the Lagos-Ibadan section of Nigeria Railway Modernisation Project and the Abuja Light Rail Project.

     From the DMO data, the Idu-Kaduna section’s principal fee was $38.46 million (about N17.25 billion) with $9.5 million (about N4.26 billion) as its interest. The Lagos-Ibadan section’s principal was not indicated, but the interest stood at $24.07 million (about N10.80 billion). During the period, the Abuja Light Rail Project had its principal fee at $38.46 million (N17.25 billion) with an accumulated interest at $11.45 million (N5.14billion).

     As at last year, the principal on Idu-Kaduna section was $38.46 million (N17.25 billion). The interest fee decreased to $8.52 million (N3.82 billion). However, the interest fee on the Lagos-Ibadan section grew to $28.06 million (N12.59 billion) from $24.07 million. The DMO was silent on the principal amount but it is assumed that the figure will remain unchanged. Just like the Abuja-Kaduna rail project, the Abuja Light Rail Project principal was $38.46 million (N17.25billion), but the accumulated interest charges of $10.48 million (N4.70 billion) is lower than the initial $11.45 million for the previous year.

     With this, the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) has only been able to generate N11,606,737,070 in two years, despite not being able to service its N41.31 billion debt. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the sector realised N5,570,998,908 as revenue in 2022, which fell by N464,739,254 compared to the N6,035,738,162 generated in 2021. In 2021, railway services generated revenue of N5,697,512,095 from passengers, with goods realising the sum of N299,805,884 and other income receipts stood at N38,420,183.

     However, last year’s revenue indicated that N4,546,342,056 came from passengers, N416,856,190 was realised from goods and N607,800,662 was generated from other income. While revenue generated from passengers fell last year, the goods and other income increased in productivity. Earlier, the NRC had identified insecurity as major impediment to the growth of rail services. In a nutshell, the inability of the NRC to generate enough income from its rail services has exposed the government to not being able to meet its obligations towards servicing the Chinese loans used to modernise the rail services.

    DMO’s position

      As at December 31, 2022, the total borrowing by Nigeria from China under bilateral arrangements stood at US$4,293.63billion or 10.31 per cent of the External Debt Stock of USD41.694 billion at the same date. According to the DMO, “these data shows that China is not a major source of funding for the Nigerian Government.”

     What are the Terms of the Loans from China? The total borrowings from China of USD4.293 billion as at December 31, 2022 are concessional loans with interest rates of 2.50 per cent per annum, tenure of twenty (20) years and grace period (Moratorium) of seven (7) years. The complete terms and other details of the loan are closely guarded by the DMO. However, the agency states that “these terms are compliant with the provisions of Section 41 (1a) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007. In addition, the low interest rate reduces the interest cost to government while the long tenure enables the repayment of the principal sum of the loans over many years. These two benefits make the provisions for debt service in the annual budget lower than they would otherwise have been if the loans were on commercial terms.

     What were the Chinese loans used for and the process by which the Chinese loans were obtained

     The DMO states that USD4.293 billion loans are project-tied loans. The projects include Nigerian Railway Modernisation Project (Idu-Kaduna section), Abuja Light Rail Project, Nigerian Four Airport Terminals Expansion Project (Abuja, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt), Nigerian Railway Modernisation Project (Lagos-Ibadan section) and Rehabilitation and Upgrading of Abuja – Keffi- Makurdi Road Project.

    “It is widely accepted that investment in infrastructure is one of the most effective tools for countries to achieve economic growth and development. Using loans from China to finance infrastructure is thus in alignment with this position,” the DMO said.

     According to the DMO, the principal process and requirements for borrowing by the government are expressly stated in the Debt Management Office Establishment (ETC) Act, 2003 (DMO Act) and the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007. Section 21 (1) of the DMO Act, “No External loan shall be approved or obtained by the Minister unless its terms and conditions shall have been laid before the National Assembly and approved by its resolution” and Section 41 (1a) of the FRA, “Government at all tiers shall only borrow for capital expenditure and human development, provided that, such borrowing shall be on concessional terms with low interest rate and with a reasonable long amortization period subject to the approval of the appropriate legislative body where necessary,” are instructive in this regard.

     To summarise, the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning works with the MDAs under whose portfolio a proposed loan falls and also with the DMO. Thereafter, the approval of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) is sought. It is only after the approval by FEC that the President requests for the approval of the National Assembly (NASS) as required by Section 41 of the Fiscal responsibility Act, 2007. More importantly, it is only after the approval of NASS that the Loans are taken and Nigeria begins to drawdown on the Loans.

     In summary, borrowing is a joint activity between the Executive (FEC) and the Legislative Arms of Government. The loan agreements are reviewed by legal officers of the Federal Ministry of Justice and the Legal Opinion of the Honourable Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice is obtained before any External Loan Agreement is signed.

    Can China take possession of the projects financed by them if Nigeria defaults in the servicing of the loan?

     Answering this question, the DMO has argued that “Nigeria explicitly provides for Debt Service on its External and Domestic Debt in its Annual Budgets.”

    In effect, this means that debt service is recognised and payment is planned for. In addition, a number of the projects being (and to be) financed by the loans are either revenue generating or have the potential to generate revenue. In the last two years, the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) has not been able to generate enough to pay for its loan because of the cases on insecurity and vandalism which crippled the service and whittled down passengers interest to use the service.

     However, China’s approach to recovering loans from defaulting African countries varies depending on the specific circumstances of each case, but typically involves a combination of negotiation, debt restructuring, and, in some cases, asset seizures. In recent years, China has become a major creditor to many African countries, lending money for infrastructure projects, natural resource extraction, and other development initiatives. However, some of these loans have not been repaid on time or in full, which has led to concerns about debt sustainability and the potential for default.

     When a country defaults on a loan from China, the first step is usually to engage in negotiations to try to find a mutually acceptable solution. This may involve debt restructuring, which could include extending the loan term, reducing the interest rate, or forgiving some of the debt. China has also been known to offer new loans to countries that are struggling to repay existing ones, although this can perpetuate a cycle of debt.

     If negotiations fail, China may resort to more aggressive tactics to recover its loans. This could include seizing assets that were used as collateral for the loan, such as natural resources or infrastructure projects. In extreme cases, China may even take control of strategic assets, such as ports or other key infrastructure, as a way to secure its interests.

     Overall, China’s approach to recovering loans from defaulting African countries is complex and varies depending on a number of factors, including the size of the debt, the importance of the borrower to China’s strategic interests, and the broader geopolitical context. In the course of borrowing from China, Nigeria has pledged various assets as collateral for Chinese loans, including its crude oil reserves and infrastructure projects.

     In 2010, Nigeria signed a $1.1 billion loan agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China to fund the construction of the Abuja Light Rail project. As part of the agreement, Nigeria pledged its crude oil reserves as collateral for the loan. Similarly, in 2018, Nigeria signed a $328 million loan agreement with the China Exim Bank to finance the National Information and Communication Technology Infrastructure Backbone Phase II Project, and again pledged its crude oil reserves as collateral.

     In addition to crude oil reserves, Nigeria has also pledged other assets as collateral for Chinese loans, such as the Lekki Deep Sea Port project, which was financed with a $629 million loan from the China Development Bank. The project’s developers, Lekki Port LFTZ Enterprise, pledged to repay the loan with revenue generated from the port, which is expected to become one of the largest deep seaports in West Africa.

     It is worth noting that the exact details of Nigeria’s loan agreements with China are not always publicly disclosed; so it is difficult to determine the full extent of the assets pledged as collateral. In theory, China could seize Nigerian assets that were pledged as collateral for Chinese loans in the event that Nigeria fails to fulfil its loan obligations. However, the practicality and legality of such an action would depend on a number of factors, including the specifics of the loan agreement, the nature of the assets pledged, and the political and economic implications of such an action.

     It is worth noting that China has not historically been aggressive in seizing assets from countries that default on their loans, preferring instead to negotiate debt restructuring or other solutions that are mutually beneficial. In some cases, China has even forgiven or written off portions of a country’s debt. That being said, there have been instances where China has seized assets from countries that default on their loans, particularly in cases where the assets are strategic or have significant economic value. For example, in 2017, China took control of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port after the country was unable to repay its debt to China.

     However, this was a relatively rare and controversial move, and it is unclear whether China would take similar action in Nigeria or other African countries that have received Chinese loans. Overall, while China has the legal right to seize assets pledged as collateral in the event of loan default, it is not always clear whether it would choose to do so, and such a move could have significant political and economic consequences.

    Uwaleke’s angle

      Prof Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University believes it is important that Nigerians are not misled with respect to the ‘sovereignty waiver’ clause in the country’s loan agreement with China. “The fact is that China can only take over a country’s assets, built with the loans, which served as Collateral Security. The relevant clause usually invoked in the event of default relates to waiver of commercial sovereignty which is a standard clause in bilateral loan agreements of this type. This, in no way, is tantamount to waiver of Diplomatic Sovereignty which borders on the independence of the country in question,” Uwaleke said.

     He added that “as a non-aligned creditor country, not belonging to the Paris Club of creditors, China needs such a sovereign guarantee in bilateral commercial deals to facilitate enforcement of loan terms. Nigeria is not at risk of default with respect to credit facilities from the China EXIM bank considering that the entire loan owed the bank as disclosed in the DMO’s public debt report, represents an insignificant amount of the country’s total debt stock.

     “In any case, adequate provisions have been made in the MTEF for the servicing of public debts, the bulk of which, about 65 percent, is domestic debt. Unlike Eurobonds, which constitute circa 40 per cent of the country’s external debt and contracted on commercial terms, China loans are largely concessional. Currently, and to my knowledge, Nigeria is enjoying facilities from China EXIM Bank at 2.5 percent for 20 years with seven years moratorium. Like Infrastructure bonds such as Sukuk, they are project-tied.

     “The money goes straight to the Chinese firms handling the projects thereby minimising the likelihood of diversion. I think this funding model suits our infrastructure development needs at this critical time and should not be jettisoned,” Uwaleke argued.

  • Projecting Nigeria’s soft power: An agenda for the President-elect

    Projecting Nigeria’s soft power: An agenda for the President-elect

    Our youths are angry, but I have also seen middle-aged and older people using expletives to describe the country of their birth, Nigeria. Many Nigerians will emigrate if they have the opportunity. Nigerians living abroad look back and still blame the country for the circumstances of their existence. I have heard of Nigerians emigrating to Myanmar, Mongolia, living in the punishing, frigid climate of Siberia, offering to fight in Ukraine, in war they have absolutely no clue about the issues surrounding it. A Ghanaian, with a lot of Nigerian friends back home visited Abuja and spoke of how beautiful the city is. The Nigerians quickly cut him short, saying he shouldn’t be fooled. The country is not beautiful at all.

     A European posted on twitter how smooth his experience was at Nigerian airport immigration. Nigerians on his handle immediately retorted that he should wait until he enters the hell that the country is. A lecturer in a Nigerian university emigrated abroad and celebrated his job in a care home as an achievement. A bank employee in Nigeria made a huge show of her job in a fast-food joint as proof of emancipation from ‘the hell’ that Nigeria is. Yet this is a country that is home to three of the richest black men on earth, and more than five of the most famous celebrities in the world. We have been so assaulted by negative rhetoric about the country that collectively we have lost our pride as a people and our sense of worth as individuals.

     It is obvious that an urgent intervention is needed. We must not leave the narratives to the mainstream media who pander to the stereotype of their audience in order to improve ratings and sustain advertising revenue. We must wrest the conversation from NGOs that have to give the worst slant to issues about the country in order to attract funding from foreign donors. We must engage social media, which confers anonymity and shield from accountability, and has allowed many so-called celebrities to publish the most outlandish things in order to increase followers and likes.

      The task is both urgent and desperate. The President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, must pay attention to Nigeria’s soft power. Our collective mental health depends on it. There must be a deliberate strategy to control the narrative about Nigeria. We can borrow from the play book of the masters of the art, the Americans and Israelis. Rwanda has managed to build an image globally that is sterling. The job must start from home, however. Controlling narratives must start with an appreciation of the fact that the mainstream Western Media is hostile to the global south; it panders to stereotypes that see the south as primitive, poor and savage. Every news item is given a slant to project those stereotypes. A CNN reporter once came to Nigeria, and when he did not see the ‘story’ he was looking for, he gathered people together to perform the act. Pure theatre! And it was broadcast as news by his employers.

     Another one recently quoted at least 50 people dead during the ENDSARS protest. When she was challenged to provide a source for her claim, she mentioned a source that a first-year student of journalism will not use. Yet CNN used the figures, because the narrative fitted what the audience wanted despite the damage it did to Nigeria’s national image. Nigeria should respect its citizens. And make a huge show of it. If an American is kidnapped anywhere in the world, he knows his country will pull all stops to rescue him.

     The Buhari administration has also embarked on some initiatives that show the average Nigerian’s dignity is respected. Over 19,000 Nigerians were evacuated from Libya; a few hundreds were also evacuated from the Middle East at the cost to the state. The reforms of the passport issuance and visa regime also speak to sensitivity to the plight of the average Nigerian. However, we need to do a lot more. All public institutions from our universities to the police and healthcare institutions should treat every Nigerian with respect and dignity. Why would a public university not make inquiries and request for support seamless? My alma mater (Obafemi Awolowo University) was incapable of a simple request to confirm that my degree was taught in English language! They did not even respond to the e-mail. These are some of the issues upsetting the youths. They’ve seen evidence of state institution working smoothly in other climes.

     Projecting soft power will start with using made-in-Nigeria goods. Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra State understands this very well. His official vehicle is made in his state! There is no transportation need of the President that a made-in-Nigeria vehicle cannot meet. Use Nigerian hospitals; let your children school in Nigeria and when you need a get-away, there are local options. The language of discourse must be deliberate. ‘Colonial masters, civilised climes and shithole’ should not appear in any official communication. We must school our people that the colonialists were marauders, who came to plunder. We have a proud history, and our civilization was not inferior to any other. Benin and Oyo empires and the Hausa States had arts, technology and administrative systems that were better than other societies in the middle Ages. We must project our past in a way that will celebrate triumphs and successes as a people. Otherwise, our children travelling abroad will have that void filled with a version that denigrates us as a people with very dangerous repercussions for our self-confidence as a people. Our leaders are nervous about Nigerian History as a subject, because it becomes emotive when we start discussing the events of the 20th century. Our proudest moments were between 11,000 BC and 1900 AD. At least, that period of our history can attract focus.

     Every narrative about Nigeria in the Western mainstream media always contains in it the word corruption. We must engage the world’s biggest PR firms to influence reportage about the country. We have problem with corruption no doubt, but I don’t believe the problem of corruption in the country has worsened since 2015. Not with whistle blower policy, Treasury Single Account and the policy on publication of any payment above N10m by government agencies. But the perception out there, if Transparency International is to be believed, is that corruption has worsened in Nigeria. We need to work on that.

     In addition, government officials who interface with the public, most especially those at the airport, should stop extortion or begging everyone for money! We have some initiatives we can create a positive narrative around. The Technical Aids Corp has been a run-away success. We need to celebrate it. We attract students from other countries to our institutions like the War College and the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies. We should do more. The task is so desperate and so essential to success in other sectors that I will suggest an official of cabinet rank be appointed to oversee branding and strategy.

    • Solarin is a Fellow of the International Pharmaceutical Federation

  • Extraordinary spiritual moments at Ikorodu Praise Encounter

    Extraordinary spiritual moments at Ikorodu Praise Encounter

    The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) Region 26 recently organised a Praise Encounter, an Easter programme in commemoration of the death and resurrection of our Lord Jesus Christ. During the programme, some gospel artistes were invited to perform at the event. DAVID ADEJO reports

    Seemingly, the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) Region 26 in Ikorodu has become synonymous with organising soul-lifting praises. At the event, gospel artistes were invited to enliven the event with strong renditions of songs of praises performed to the delight of many. The event was encapsulated in a programme called Praise Encounter. Yearly, the annual ritual holds in Ikorodu every Easter Sunday. This year’s Praise Encounter was held at the Federal Radio Corporation Ground, Ijede, Ikorodu Lagos.

     The annual event is a showcase not only for praise singing but also for appraisal of some of the societal contradictions. Any wonder, the Continental Overseer for Southwest and United Arab Emirates, Pastor Johnson Funso Odesola, condemned clerics whose preaching promotes disunity and ethnic bigotry. The criticism was the fallout of the 2023 general elections during which some clerics were alleged to have taken sides and harped on issues that apparently divide instead of uniting the already fractured Nigerian society

     Pastor Odesola, at the fourth edition of the event said no right-thinking Man-of-God would preach along ethno-religious lines and hatred. In his Easter message titled “He’s Alive,” Odesola said it was unfortunate that some clerics were found preaching religious and ethnic bigotry which has the tendency to cause disunity among Nigerians. “The Risen Christ is alive. He urged us to go everywhere doing good. His promises sustain us in life,” he said.

     Continuing, Odesola said: “The last time, we recorded over 10, 000 worshipers and today, the crowd is massive. So, we have a promise of God in Psalms 91:1-2 that says ‘He that dwells in the secret place of God shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.’ So, we don’t need to be afraid.” Odesola said Ikorodu used to be a volatile area known for such crimes as kidnapping, secret cults, robbery and other forms of criminalities. When God is about to do something, no one can stop Him.” Odesola said.

     The Assignments Coordinator 111 and Regional Coordinator 111 of RCCG Ikorodu, Pastor Dale Olowookere, said God harkens to the praises of his people. “When you praise God, He will bless the land, the power of God has come upon the land and it will yield its increase. We are recording over 14,000 worshipers and some are still on their way coming. We have over 12 guest artistes and some are on their way coming. We are not going to lower the bar but set more standards for growth and development since God and man regard praises as something they love in common,” Olowookere said.

     One of the gospel artistes, Sola Allyson, said she was excited to be speaking to youth in an environment that is conducive to them so as to focus on God and would not make the mistake that young ones used to do. “I am not disappointed to be in the midst of these wonderful youths again. The last time I came to minister to them, I know many of them are going to leave here changed people,” she said.

    Allyson prayed that the Spirit of God should grow among them and be fruitful. She maintained that grace is not cheap and that someone paid for it. “I pray for them so that they can see the love of God for them. It is not cheap to have the grace of God. I ask the Holy Spirit to fill their hearts with the substances of God’s word so that when the challenges of the world come, they will be able to withstand it,” she said.

     Chuks Uche’s electrifying performance ignited the over 20,000 people present. Most of his songs were rendered in Igbo. His expectation for the congregation was for them to receive miracles through his songs, saying: “I am working on my album. Soon this year, it will be a source of blessing to my fans and to the glory of God. As I minister to the people and they receive miracles, I am also blessed,” Chuks said.

     Adejumobi Oluwatosin, another gospel minister, popularly known as Tosin Bee, has become a force to reckon with as he has warmed himself into the hearts of Christians and non-Christians with his brand. His performance at this year’s Praise Encounter was awesome and spectacular with much energy and youthfulness was much loved by the congregation when he stepped on the stage. Bee said: “God has been so kind to me and I give Him the glory tonight. He took control and that is why you saw the Holy Spirit move among the congregation.”

     One of the organisers and Provincial Pastors of RCCG, General Assembly, Lagos Province 58, Ginti Ikorodu Lagos Pastor Godwin Obadan promised to bring more artistes in subsequent editions. “We have more popular artistes who promised to perform at “Praise Encounter” next year. The space challenge has been well taken care of and we also provided more spaces for cars this year. We will intensify our efforts in crowd control. Our medical team is fantastic. We have over 20, 000 participants, especially youth this year,” Obadan said.

     Other artistes at the all-night event were Sax Boy, Provincial Choir Group, Regional 26 Mass Choir Group, RCCG Orchestra Mass Choir, Taiwo Wemimo, Famakin Famzy, Yinka Alaseyori, and Wisdom Chigozie. Also in attendance were His Royal Majesty, Oba Adeoriyomi  Oluwasesan Abdul-Akeem Oyebo (Ademoyebo lll) Obateru of Egbin Kingdom and other fathers of Ikorodu land.

  • Leveraging digital tools to improve economy

    Leveraging digital tools to improve economy

    Determined to improve Nigeria’s economy through the use of technology, NeGSt-TAS Technologies Limited, a digital service provider, recently signed a strategic partnership agreement with Visa Incorporated to digitise the Nigerian economy. JULIANA AGBO reports.

    Mindful of the fact that digitisation improves productivity and has a measurable effect on economic growth, most developed economies have embraced the process of changing from an analogue to a digital form of economic development because it has proved to be a tool that increases connectivity, enables mobility, and is universal. It has the potential to revive and support many industries and sectors. It also increases responsiveness, is flexible, and can speed up the pace of economic activities of any country’s economy.

     Digitisation has facilitated growth and development in many countries of the world as it has created new opportunities for businesses and aided increased productivity.

     A digitised economy benefits everyone, promotes financial inclusion, digital literacy, and enables greater access to formal financial services.

     In the circumstances, therefore, economic digitisation has become a vital part of the global economy that can no longer be ignored.

     While continents such as America and Europe have successfully digitised their economies, most African countries with large populations are yet to tap into the opportunities inherent in the digital economy.

     In a bid to move Nigeria’s economy from analogue to digital technology, an e-government and digital technology service provider, NeGSt-TAS Technologies Limited recently signed a strategic partnership agreement with Visa Incorporated to digitise the Nigerian economy.

     The partnership was formalised during a recent U.S-Africa Business Forum in Washington DC at which Alfred F. Kelly, Chairman and Chief Executive of Visa Incorporated pledged to invest the sum of $1 billion over the next five years to digitise African economies with a view to advancing resilient, innovative and inclusive economies across the continent that will enable greater access to digital literacy and payments as entry points for expanding formal financial services to individuals and merchants.

     With Nigeria being the largest economies in Africa, the partnership is aimed at mainstreaming access opportunities, generating increased income, and ensuring accountability and sustainability for the benefit of all.

    What digitising economy involves

    Explaining what digitising economy involves at the signing of the digitalisation agreement between Nigeria and Visa, the spokesperson of the 9th Senate, Surajudeen Basiru said economy digitisation is the deployment of Information Communication Technology (ICT) to commercial transactions taking place in a virtual world rather than the physical market place.

     This, he said, is a positive disruption from the traditional mode of buying and selling of goods as well as provision of services.

     In a paper titled “Addressing Youth Restiveness, Crime and Internal Security Challenges through Economy Digitisation said: “Economy digitisation would play a critical role in addressing these challenges. It can create job opportunities, reduce poverty and inequality, improve access to education and health care, promote transparency and accountability, and generate revenue.

    According to him, digitising an economy will lead to a worldwide network of economic activities, commercial transactions and professional interactions that are enabled by ICT; otherwise referred to as digital economy.

     He further said the digitisation of the economy creates benefits and efficiencies as digital technologies drive innovation and fuel job opportunities and economic growth.

     While calling on the Nigerian government and private sector to invest in economic digitisation to transform the economy and society, he said the Federal Government in investing in the digital economy should also be wary of the disadvantages that align with it such as data security and privacy concerns.

     “Digital economy also permeates all aspects of society, influencing the way people interact and bring about broad sociological changes. Digital technology would also be used to monitor criminal activities, track movements, and gather intelligence to prevent crimes before they occur.

     “Digitisation has restructured the supply of digital goods and services in creative industries, such as movies, music, and television. Yet, it has not eliminated the unpredictable appeal of these new goods.

     “New products have surprising appeal, and as firms explore the unpredictable outcomes, their exploration creates a long tail of realised appeal in the market.

     “The development of the digital economy and ICT-based cyber physical systems is a priority field for global technical, technological, social, economic and institutional transformations.

    “This is the mass adoption of connected digital services by consumers, enterprises and governments in such a way that accelerates growth and facilitates job creation,” he said.

    Expected benefits

    NeGSt-TAS Executive Vice-Chairman, Babatunde Obada, who spoke at the signing of the digitalising agreement between Nigeria and Visa, said the partnership between NeGSt-TAS and Visa will bring immense benefits to individuals, merchants, and the national economy.

     Obada, who said the partnership between NeGSt-TAS and Visa came at a crucial time when the world is in transition towards a more digital and connected future, noted that it will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in transforming Nigeria’s economy and positioning it for success in the digital age.

     While expressing confidence in the partnership that Visa had successfully digitised the economies of America, Europe, Ukraine, and the United Arab Emirate (UAE), he said Nigeria can accelerate its economic growth, promote sustainable development, and create a better future for its citizens.

    He said: Visa has digitised some countries, and doing the same in Nigeria is possible. They have successfully digitised the economy of America and Europe, they are currently digitising the economy of Ukraine and they are also digitising the economy of the UAE. 

    Obada, who urged relevant stakeholders to cooperate in ensuring the success of the project, said digitisation is to create a digital tread between economies to make them talk to one another.

     He noted that collective effort is needed to return Nigeria to when things were rosy as digitalisation holds an all-round solution to Nigeria’s numerous challenges.

     He said: “The efforts start now. We are privileged to be partnering with Visa. We must begin to say good news to ourselves. That’s why this initiative is coming at this time.

     “Digitisation is to create a digital tread that is stringed together all of these economies and make them talk to each other. It has been done elsewhere and it can be done here in Nigeria and the step towards making it possible is what we are here today.

     “NeGSt-TAS Technologies and Visa Incorporated are also collaborating to advance digital literacy among Nigerians, accelerate the digitisation of the Nigerian economy and build an innovative financial ecosystem that will boost commercial activities, improve government earnings, create jobs and reduce inefficiency and economic dysfunction.

     “Nigeria is, therefore, set to enjoy unprecedented digital acceleration, with a growing number of producers, consumers, innovators, merchants and businesses realising the benefits of secure and convenient digital innovations to fuel commercial activities.

     “The objective of the partnership is to adapt digital tools in the process of moving from analogue to digital technology with a view of reducing human intervention, while at the same time mainstreaming access opportunities, generating increased income, ensuring search ability, interaction, integration, preservation, transparency, accountability and sustainability of the national economy to benefit all,” he said.

     Former President Goodluck Jonathan said digitisation eliminates person-to-person contact in the conduct of government and corporate businesses, thereby eliminating corruption, blocking revenue that could have been diverted to private pockets. It will increase efficiency in the conduct of government business.

     Jonathan explained that digitisation is the only way to achieve development; thereby boosting employment generation, fighting poverty and reducing crimes, especially in the public sector.

     Jonathan, who was represented by a former Minister of Defence, Senator Al Amin Daggash, said if Nigeria must realise its potential, there’s no going back on digitalisation of the economy.

     He said with digitisation, Nigeria would know its real population when it conducts a national census.

     The chairman of NeGSt-TAS Technologies Limited, Muhammed Munir Ja’Afar, who said the partnership agreement was with his full support, said the collaboration is to advance digital literacy among Nigerians.

     For Nigeria to achieve success in digitising her economy, the chairman urged relevant stakeholders to support the partnership.

     Corroborating other stakeholders, the Minister of State for Transportation, Solomon Ayodele Oladunni, said Nigeria cannot be left behind in the world which is now in a digital age.

    While acknowledging that digitisation is critical for developing and catalysing the economy, Oladunni assured Visa that the Federal Government would work hard to secure their investment.

     “The rest of the world is moving towards digitisation and Nigeria cannot be left behind,” he said.

     The Chairman of Sterling Bank, Asue Ighodalo said the ability of digitisation to make work simpler and better is why it is readily an upgrade to any traditional activities.

     Ighodalo expressed the need to invest in digital infrastructure and promote the use of digital payments to create a more vibrant and prosperous Nigerian economy.

     This, he said, allows for faster and more efficient transactions, improved data analysis, and increased access to financial services.

     He said: “As we all know, we are living in a digital age, and the economy is undergoing a major transformation. The headache of managing resources, producing, consuming and trading efficiently has formed the basis of the global economy for as long as civilization has existed.

     “We can build a digitised economy that benefits everyone, promotes financial inclusion and drives economic growth.

    “It is essential that we continue to invest in digital infrastructure and promote the use of digital payments to create a more vibrant and prosperous Nigerian economy.”

     While speaking on the role of money and development banks in economy digitisation, he said with funding, businesses and entrepreneurs now have the resources to develop innovative solutions that can drive the digitisation of the economy. 

    As a country, Ighodalo noted that Nigeria has benefited from the support of venture capital firms and other financial institutions.

     Citing an example, he said, since 2025, Nigeria startups have raised over $2 billion which has given the technology sector a foothold that has become one of the growing employers of labour in the country.

     He further noted that money and development banks are essential for the digitisation of any economy, as they provide the necessary funding for the development of technology infrastructure and digital solutions.

  • Fiscal discipline needed for effective debt management

    Fiscal discipline needed for effective debt management

    Now the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari is in its twilight, there are heightened fears about the unbridled borrowing by the federal government. There is also the concern over a staggering multi-trillion-naira debt to be inherited by the incoming administration. Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA reports

    The Muhammadu Buhari administration is in its twilight. There is a serious countdown to the end of the regime when the incoming administration will take over. The Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO) Ms Patience Oniha has estimated that by the time the Buhari administration ends on May 29, the country will be in a N77-trillion debt chock hold.

     From 2015 to date, Nigeria’s total debt stock has recorded a steady increase. In the first three years between 2015 and 2018, the quantum of increase was lower than the previous year’s but from 2018 to 2022, data from the DMO shows that the increase has been higher year after year. Nigeria’s total debt stock refers to the total amount of money owed by the government, comprising both domestic and foreign loans borrowed over time.

    Why has the debt continued to grow?

    The country’s debt has continued to increase over the years due to a combination of factors. One of the main reasons is the country’s over-reliance on oil exports, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. When oil prices are high, Nigeria earns more revenue, but when prices drop, the country’s revenue is significantly reduced. This has made it difficult for the government to finance its budget and execute developmental projects, leading to a reliance on borrowing to fill the gap.

    In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the price of crude oil increased. While other oil-producing countries benefited from the windfall, Nigeria spent all her earnings on servicing debts and offsetting payments on petroleum subsidies. This is an indication that the fiscal authorities did not know what they were doing. 

     Another factor is the country’s weak tax base. Nigeria has a low tax-to-GDP ratio, which means that the government relies heavily on oil revenue to fund its activities. This has made it difficult for the government to raise sufficient revenue to meet its obligations, leading to a reliance on borrowing to finance its budget.

     Interestingly, every year, since 2019, the administration of President Buhari has been designing the annual finance bill in a bid to harvest more taxes. The finance bill is intended to promote fiscal equity; reform domestic tax laws to align with global best practices; introduce tax incentives for investments in infrastructure and capital markets; support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs); and raise revenues for the government. Over the years, there is still a lot to look forward to.

    Furthermore, corruption and mismanagement of public funds have also contributed to the country’s debt problem. These issues have led to a situation where funds are mismanaged, and large amounts of public resources are siphoned off, leading to a shortfall in revenue for the government. Overall, Nigeria’s debt problem is a complex issue that requires a multi-faceted approach to address. It will require a combination of fiscal discipline, improved revenue generation, and better management of public funds to reduce the country’s debt burden.

    Need for fiscal discipline

    Many have argued that the government has not always managed its finances efficiently and effectively. This includes issues such as overspending, wasteful spending, and poor management of public funds.

     For instance, the government has often spent more money than it generates in revenue, leading to budget deficits. These deficits are often financed through borrowing, which increases the country’s debt burden.

     Furthermore, the government has sometimes engaged in wasteful spending, such as spending on frivolous projects or overpaying for goods and services (the annual budget is littered with examples of frivolous spending and overpriced items). This kind of spending is often not necessary for the development of the country and can lead to mismanagement of resources.

     Another issue is corruption, which has plagued the country’s public sector for many years. Corruption often involves the misappropriation of public funds for personal gain, leading to a shortfall in revenue for the government. Overall, fiscal discipline refers to the government’s ability to manage its finances effectively and efficiently, ensuring that it spends within its means and manages its resources prudently. The Nigerian government’s lack of fiscal discipline has contributed to the country’s debt problem and hindered its economic development.

    Handing over huge debt to the next administration

    If the present government hands over a huge debt burden to the incoming administration, there are several things that the new regime can do to manage the debt effectively. The next administration must conduct a thorough debt audit to identify the nature and terms of the country’s debt. This will help the government to understand the debt’s composition, maturity, and interest rates, enabling it to develop an effective debt management strategy.

     The DMO has always argued that the country has a fine debt strategy, but the incoming government will do well to engage the DMO to fine-tune this strategy. Though the DMO has consistently stated that the government has prioritized debt servicing, the incoming administration must ensure that it pays its debts on time to avoid default. This will help to maintain the country’s creditworthiness and reduce the cost of borrowing in the future.

     Without delay, the new government will do well to negotiate with creditors. The government can negotiate with its creditors to obtain better terms and conditions for its debt. This could involve seeking lower interest rates, longer repayment periods, or debt forgiveness. Most importantly, it must be transparent about it. Also, the new government can increase revenue generation by broadening the tax base, further reducing tax exemptions, and improving tax administration. This will help to increase the government’s revenue and reduce its reliance on borrowing.

     It must institute and implement fiscal discipline. The incoming government should implement fiscal discipline by reducing wasteful spending and improving the management of public funds. This will help to reduce the government’s budget deficit and lower its borrowing needs.

     Finally, the new government should implement policies that promote economic growth, such as increasing investment in infrastructure and supporting private sector development. A growing economy will generate more revenue for the government and reduce its debt burden over time.

    Generally, effective debt management requires a multi-faceted approach that involves a combination of debt restructuring, revenue generation, fiscal discipline, and economic growth.

    Borrowing under Zainab Ahmed

    Since assuming office as the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, has overseen a significant increase in the country’s borrowing. This increase in borrowing has been driven by a combination of factors, including a decline in revenue from oil exports, the need to finance the country’s budget deficits, and the need to fund critical infrastructure projects.

       The Federal Government has borrowed from both domestic and international markets, issuing bonds and other debt instruments to raise funds. The government has also obtained loans from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank.

     While borrowing can be a necessary tool for financing development, the sustainability of Nigeria’s increasing debt stock has been a subject of concern. There is a need for proper debt management and fiscal discipline to ensure that the country’s debt does not become a burden on future generations.

    FG not tired of borrowing

    Recently, the Debt Management Office (DMO) announced that as of December 31, 2022, the country’s total public debt stock consisting of the domestic and external debt stocks of the Federal Government and the sub-national governments-the 36 state governments and the Federal Capital Territory-was N46.25 trillion or USD103.11 billion. The comparative figure for December 31, 2021, is N39.56 trillion or USD95.77 billion.

     In terms of composition, the total domestic debt stock was N27.55 trillion (USD 61.42 billion) while the total external debt stock was N18.70 trillion (USD 41.69 billion). Among the reasons the DMO gave for the increase in the total public debt stock were new borrowings by the Federal Government and sub-national governments, primarily to fund budget deficits and execute projects; and the issuance of promissory notes by the Federal Government to settle some liabilities also contributed to the growth in the debt stock.

     Ongoing efforts by the government to increase revenues from oil and non-oil sources through initiatives such as the Finance Acts and the Strategic Revenue Mobilisation initiative the DMO said “are expected to support debt sustainability.” Meanwhile, the total public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio for December 31, 2022 was 23.20 per cent; which indicates a slight increase from the figure for December 31, 2022 at 22.473 per cent.

     The DMO stated that “the ratio of 23.20 per cent is within the 40 per cent limit self-imposed by Nigeria, the 55 per cent limit recommended by the World Bank/International Monetary Fund, and the 70 per cent limit recommended by the Economic Community of West African States.”

     A few days, however, it was reported that the Federal Government has borrowed the sum of N2.129 trillion between January and February 2023 through the issuance of Domestic FGN Securities. The report indicated that at this rate of borrowing, the government may exceed its domestic deficit funding requirement of N7.043 trillion in 2023.

     However, the DMO disagreed, arguing that “the Domestic Issuance Programme is designed not only to provide funds to finance the budget deficit, but to also refinance the Federal Government’s maturing obligations during the fiscal year.”

     The DMO added that “while a total of N2.129 trillion has been raised in January and February from issuances of FGN Bonds; Nigerian Treasury Bills and FGN Savings Bond, only N1 trillion has been deployed for deficit financing, representing 14.2 per cent of the total requirement of N7.043 trillion for the year.”

     The DMO also noted that “the balance of the funds raised is for refinancing maturing obligations.” It argued further that it “is maximising the opportunity provided by the strong investor demand to raise funds to facilitate early implementation of the 2023 Budget, and guided by the law and thus, cannot exceed the legally approved New Borrowing in the Appropriation Act.”

     Another $800 million loan was secured recently from the World Bank for subsidy palliatives. Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed announced that Nigeria secured an $800 million loan from the World Bank for cash handouts to the poor as part of efforts to end a costly fuel subsidy by June.

    We all know that the World Bank rarely gives out loans without conditionality. The Federal Government has been silent on this conditionality. However, between January 15, 2027 to July 15, 2046 Nigeria is expected to pay 1.65 per cent of the principal amount and from January 15, 2047 to July 15, 2051, Nigeria will pay 3.4 per cent of the principal amount.

    What the experts say

    Prof Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University told The Nation that “on the country’s rising public debt, the reality is that the country will have to deal with the precarious debt situation for several years to come due largely to Nigeria’s low revenue generating capacity-a situation made worse by the fuel subsidy regime and widening budget deficits.

     “This is not just about the over N46 trillion reported by the DMO but also the more than N20 trillion owed the CBN in respect of which the government plans to convert to a long-term bond spanning 40 years.”

     Prof. Uwaleke noted that “this grim fiscal position is not lost on the international community and has recently reflected in the downgrade of the country’s credit rating by global rating agencies such as Moodys and Fitch. “A worrisome aspect is that some of these loans are not applied to capital projects. Else, how does one explain a provision of N8.8 trillion in new borrowings in the 2023 budget proposal, whereas the capital budget is about N5.3 trillion even below the cost of debt service at N6.3 trillion?

     “I think the Minister of Finance, whose job it is to source cheap funds to finance budget deficits has demonstrated professionalism in the discharge of her functions against the backdrop of unforeseen circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic. To be fair, a number of factors contributing to rising public debt burden such as fuel subsidy and lower oil revenue on account of crude oil theft are not within her control.

     “It’s pertinent to note that the Strategic Revenue Growth Initiative, which the minister introduced, has helped to boost the government’s non-oil revenue. I advise the next administration to make efforts to reduce budget deficits, including through plugging leakages. Future borrowings should be tied to visible self-liquidating projects. In this regard, a major instrument for raising domestic debt should be infrastructure bonds such as Sukuk as opposed to the current practice of focusing on FGN bonds.”

  • Nigerians have lots to gain from Tinubu’s presidency, says Sagay

    Nigerians have lots to gain from Tinubu’s presidency, says Sagay

    • ‘2023 presidential election is probably the best’

    Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption (PACAC) Chairman, Prof. Itse Sagay has assured Nigerians of what to expect under Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who won the 2023 presidential election. In an interview on Channels Television Programme, Sunday Politics, monitored by EMMANUEL BADEJO, an ASSISTANT EDITOR, the Senior Advocate of Nigeria reviewed the last election and advanced reasons that favoured Tinubu. He also counseled losers to desist from heating up the polity

    Following the 2023 presidential election, the country has been enmeshed in wide-spread division. How then would you describe the election and the outcome of that exercise?

     Thank you very much.  A lot of people who have commented on this election are young people who have not actually gone through many election cycles in this country.  In my personal opinion, in terms of representing the minds and wishes of Nigerians in an election, this is probably the best election we have ever had. If you have scientifically experienced past elections, particularly those conducted by the politicians, the military , the civil rules elections were okay.  The colonial masters’ organized elections were okay.  The problems we have had in this country are politician to politician elections.  I mean, we have always had problems with elections organised by politicians.  If you look at those elections in 1959, 1964 where in the North 80 candidates were returned unopposed out of 167 constituencies. The next one we had was 1979 and we all know what happened at the time.  Then, if you come closer, we had 2007, that is probably the worst election we’ve ever had under civilians.  But we had good elections in 2011, 2015 and 2019. But in terms of interpreting what Nigerians feel, 2023 is the best election we have ever had.

     If you look at the way things went with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), the All Progressives Congress (APC) was defeated in Lagos.  That should make you realize that this is a credible election. If you go through the whole country, in terms of accuracy and the feelings of Nigeria, I believe that this election was controlled by three factors including ethnicity, religion and organisational capacity, which is an attribute of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

     If you look at ethnicity, the three most successful candidates, Tinubu, Atiku Abubarka of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) won in the areas they came from. One of the things that counted for Tinubu’s success was because where he lost, he came close second, apart from the Southeast. He was close second in Northeast, Northwest.  He won North-Central.  In the Southeast, the 2023 election was very disastrous for the APC and the PDP. The Labour Party scored up to 85 per cent, which is consistent with the tendency of the people populating that area. If you look at South-South, Tinubu did well in that region.

     If you look at the religious angle, you’ll find Peter Obi of the Labour Party, polling in Plateau State which has a very strong Christian community.  If you look at Nasarawa, where Obi won too, I think that state has a large  Igbo residents and voters.

     If you look at the election generally, you’ll find that the man, which had the spread and won massively in the Southwest and Northcentral and excellently well in the Northwest and Northeast and performed credibly in Southsouth, all those factors explain the issue of ethnicity, religion, which I had said earlier.

     Above all, what gave Tinubu the edge was his capacity to organize; to plan and to plant agencies and supporters across the country, particularly in the North.  You’ll see that where Tinubu lost, particularly in the North, he came a very, very close second.  But if you look at the Labour Party, it did excellently well in the Southeast and in Lagos.  But, as it was going up North, there was loss of capacity.  By the time it got to the Northwest and Northeast, its performance became very, very abysmal.  So, that is the explanation and I believe that the 2023 election reflected the feelings of Nigerians.

     There are those who will disagree with your analysis, as some are alleging massive manipulation of the election and that the exercise does not reflect the true position and yearnings of the Nigerian people.  How do you react to this?

     Well, there could be some hitches, but no evidence of large manipulation of the election. There is no evidence of changing how Nigerians felt about the parties. There is no such thing. The BVAS was used successfully. Can you imagine the APC losing Lagos?  Immediately, that should tell you that the BVAS was working. And for that to happen, that should tell you that the election was credible. It is unheard of for the APC to lose Lagos in over 23 years.  In other areas like the Northeast, Atiku won because he comes from that side. But what made Tinubu succeed was that where he was not number one, he was closely number two. Tinubu was number one in the Southwest, Northcentral, and then in other areas where he didn’t win, he was close to number two except in the Southeast. As far as I am concerned, this election is the best Nigeria has ever had. Look at the results from the North, where Tinubu was not number one, he was close to number two.  So, he was able to marshal votes all over the country except in the Southeast.  His contestants were not able to achieve that.

        Prof. were you surprised with the outcome of the election considering the wave that greeted Peter Obi’s candidacy and several polls that favoured him ahead of other contenders?

    No, no, I was not surprised that Tinubu won. I had no faith in those polls. You just pick up your phones, called largely youth in urban areas and they tell you their views. Look, do you know the views of the massive northern population?  Were they contacted? Nobody contacted them and their views were not taken into consideration.  So, the polls were poorly exercised.  It was a very unfortunate thing that it set up the stage to mislead the Labour Party that it was going to win. This was very, very unfortunate.  When I saw those polls, I just laughed.  This was so because, many of those polls only considered few views of negligible youth in urban centres, using that to represent Nigeria when Nigeria is a massive rural population.  The views of the massive number of people in the rural areas particularly in the North were not taken into consideration. That was why there was such a contradiction between the results of those polls and the eventual result of the election.  Those polls were not credible.

    Are you worried about the aftermath of the election where the country now has to contend with noticeable division and aren’t we entering into a quagmire?

    For those who were very upset about the result because they were expecting to win, they have resorted to the court and that is one balm on their pain. They have gone to the court for an objective body of jurists to look at the result.  And even if they fail at that level, they should look up to another four years when there will still be another general election. It is not a one-time exercise; it is something that will be done every four years and what I will suggest and advise those who failed, particularly, the Labour Party, is to go to the grass root throughout the country and begin to organise.  They had no organisation.

     If you look at the governorship election, it only won one out of 28 contestants.  That is an indication of a party that has no root in the country but was clearly a hurricane that just blew through the country and lost steam along the way.  What I will suggest to them is to begin to put their roots on the ground instead of quarrelling, fighting and abusing everybody.  They should just start planning; have branches, and organize themselves in Tinubu’s way.

     We have to give it to him (Tinubu) because he is a supper organiser.  His victory showed that organisation in which his victory and result spread across the whole country except the Southeast. So, it is a question of planning and organization and start planning for the next four years when they will have another chance.  But if they don’t do so, that will be disastrous.  Let the Labour Party begin to plan and organise in preparation for the next election in 2027.  But, if they fail to do so, the party won’t go anywhere.

     Now, it seems attention is on the judiciary.  Some are calling for the proceedings of the court’s case to be televised. Do you subscribe to that?

    I don’t, though I have nothing against that.  I’ll be glad to sit in my house and watch the proceedings. But, it will make no difference either way.  What will the watching by Nigerians achieve? To terrify the judges to take a decision which they do not believe is in accordance with the law? Whether Nigerians watch or not, it will make absolutely no difference to the outcome of the judicial intervention in this matter.

    Nigerians seem to be nursing so much mistrust towards our institutions. What do you make of Nigerians’ trust issue and the judiciary in respect of this case?

    I also pray that the Nigerian judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, lives up to expectation.  This is because it is the highest court in the land.  It is the greatest temple of justice in this country.  So, let them go into this matter, look at it judicially and judiciously.  Let the judges use their experience and expertise and come out with the truth in terms of who won the election.  They should do this according to their consciences and not under pressure or threat by anybody.  Let them do it and come out with what is consistent with the law, their conscience and justice.  If they do that, fine.  But, if they don’t, there is nothing we can do about that.  We cannot do anything about the judiciary once it has taken a decision.  I pray they make the right decision. But, let nobody think he or she can intimidate the judges if they take a decision they don’t like. We have seen this happen all over the world. We have to accept that the system we are in is a democratic system and the judiciary is part and parcel of that system.  Whatever they decide is critical to the survival of democracy. We can criticize and blame them but we must not either threaten or compel them to take a decision, which is favourable to us or not. We must be prepared to accept the decision of the court whichever way it goes. And for those who will lose at the court, we need to accept the verdict and gather ourselves to contest another election in the next four years. That is the spirit we must adopt if democracy will survive.

    Prof. Wole Soyinka’s comment on the last election has generated a lot of reaction.  Do you align or disagree with his position?

    I watched the interview of Prof. Wole Soyinka and I totally accept the views he adumbrated in that you cannot use vehemence and have bursts of anger being expressed by some on the social media.  Soyinka was right when he said nobody should insist that the presidency of this country must be his or nobody else. I have also seen the insults being poured on him in social media.  And this is the point we are making.  Such displays can make many conclude that you are not fit to rule or be in a ruling party because that is how you are going to terrorise the party.  So, what some members of the Labour Party are doing is contrary to the Labour Party itself and it can stand against the party in the future. I expect them to start planning for the next four years and the possibility of winning is always there instead of abusing everybody on social media. It is painful that some young people of the Labour Party made some insulting comments about Prof. Soyinka. People that resort to that are not ready to see reason, then, they will continue to suffer the same fate.

    There is a need for healing and reconciliation.  How do you hope these could be attained?

    Once the Supreme Court finally decides, everybody should come down.  We should reach across to each other and work with each other.  If you look at the National Assembly, it is a good mix. The Labour Party and the PDP have large numbers.  This affords the three parties to work together and plan robust legislation for the interest of the country and persuade the president to sign it for a brighter future.

     Elections are seasonal.  Once they come, they go.  So, let us work and live together.  Let us put the interest of the country first and contribute to what the government is doing. It is not a hopeless situation.  Those who lost this time can win next time instead of trying to create disruption and anarchy.  If they bring this country down, what country are they going to rule over?  They need a country and if they pull down the country, then you pull down yourself too like Samson. So, there is no point doing that.  Begin planning for the future so that you can win in the next election.

    What advice would be given to Bola Tinubu as the next president of the country?

    His major priority in the long-term should be restructuring.  Nigerians have to go back to what it was in 1963 if this country will be a productive country again.

    Do you see Tinubu doing this, Prof?

    I expect so. That is the principle strongly held by the part of the country where he (Tinubu) comes from. Obafemi Awolowo believed this and held so strongly and the president-elect believes in Obafemi Awolowo. If Awolowo had had the opportunity of ruling this country, it would have been countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.  This is the way I see Tinubu.

    But what he should tackle first is security. He has to make this country secure and safe so that we can do our farming, go about our businesses without fear of molestation. The second thing he should do is to tackle the economic hassles.  Take petroleum, for example, I do not agree that the subsidy should be removed without us producing refined petrol in this country.  Let him not be deceived.  Anyone asking him to remove the subsidy is trying to ground his party and make him unpopular.  Subsidies must continue until some refineries begin to work. The moment we start refining our petroleum product in this country, there will be a sharp drop in price of the product.

     Considering the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which stipulates that the subsidy regime must end in June 2023, and that there is no budget for it, would you still be asking that payment of subsidy should continue?

    The new government will make a fresh budget for subsidies. That is very simple.  Subsidy regime has to continue until our refineries start to work, either refineries owned by the government or private individuals. There is so much secrecy in the oil sector.  The government needs to move in to straighten up things and at least, it should ensure that Dangote Refinery commences operation. Petrol, diesel, and kerosene are urgent things Nigerians need.

      Do you believe in the Bola Tinubu’s capacity to run this country in the manner Nigerians are yearning for?

    I have been in Lagos for over 30 years, in fact, going to 40 years.  I knew the Lagos I met under the military. I know the Lagos I now live in under Bola Tinubu and his chosen successors. The difference is so dramatic. It is between a broken down contraption and a modern international city with so many innovations.  Now, we have railways within Lagos and more of it is going to come.  Lagos has been turned into a modern metropolis, which we can proudly boost of and compare with many great cities in the world.  With that experience behind him I think Nigeria and Nigerians will have a lot to gain from Tinubu’s presidency.