The world is at its wit’s end over how to curtail the outbreak of Coronavirus, which has infected over 80,000 people and claimed more than 80 lives in more than 30 countries. The novel virus will continue to rupture the social order until a cure is found, reports Associate Editor ADEKUNLE YUSUF
LAST Thursday, as the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof Akin Abayomi, announced a confirmed case of coronavirus or COVID-19 in the state, Nigeria officially joined the league of countries battling to prevent a widespread outbreak of the virus. Countries such as New Zealand, Belarus, and Lithuania also reported their first cases around the same time as Nigeria’s. The case is the first to be reported in Nigeria since the outbreak of the novel virus in China in January 2020.
The case is an Italian citizen who entered Nigeria on the 25th of February from Milan, Italy, for a brief business visit and fell ill afterwards. He was subsequently transferred to the Lagos State Biosecurity Facilities for isolation and testing on the 26th February. The COVID-19 infection was confirmed by the Virology Laboratory of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, part of the Laboratory Network of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
In a press conference shortly confirming a case of COVID-19, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu allayed fears of residents over the spread of the virus, urging Lagosians not to panic. He assured that the state government, in conjunction with federal health authorities, has put adequate measures in place to tackle the situation. While offering more information on how the patient was identified and efforts being made to prevent the spread of the virus, Sanwo-Olu confirmed that the Italian (whose name is yet to be disclosed) is an Ogun State-based businessman who returned to Nigeria via Istanbul, Turkey, on Monday evening. He assured that the patient is in a stable condition at the bio-security facility in Yaba, Lagos Mainland, where he is being isolated.
Sanwo-Olu added that though the patient tested positive to COVID-19 virus, he is yet to show any respiratory symptoms, stressing that the businessman merely complained of fever and body pain, which prompted his transfer from Ogun State to Lagos for advanced medical investigation. To curtail a possible spread of the virus, the governor said a number of persons who had physical contact with the patient before the virus was diagnosed are being traced, while those that have been identified are under examination for possible symptoms.
Last weekend, during his visit to the bio-security and containment facility at Infectious Disease Hospital (IDH) in Yaba, where the Italian is being managed, the governor said Nigerian healthcare officials have been working round the clock with infectious disease control professionals from international agencies to ensure the counter measures being deployed to contain the virus achieve the desired results. He said Lagos has already upgraded its isolation facilities at the IDH in case of escalation in the number of cases, revealing that two additional containment centres have been created with 80 bed spaces and necessary medical equipment to manage cases. “Let me express a confession that I am very delighted with the level of preparedness and our response to stop coronavirus from spreading in our country. The kind of structures we have put in place and the strategies being deployed have raised my confidence that the nation, at the end of the day, will win this battle and will put it behind. I keep on expressing to the Commissioner for Health that we must stop at nothing to achieve the very best result.”
The 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, which began in Wuhan in China in December, has now killed close to 3,000 people and infected more than 81,315, gaining a toehold virtually on every continent and sparking fears of a global pandemic. Since the Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organisation on December 31, 2019 of pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei province, with an unknown cause, hell has been literally let loose in the political and medical firmaments of many countries. What started as a mystery disease was first referred to as 2019-nCoV and then named COVID-19. It is a coronavirus that continues to spread in China and beyond. In the last two months, total cases showed that more than 82,294 people have been infected and 2,804 deaths recorded globally, with China, the epicenter of the deadly virus, being the worst hit.
As the number of infections globally continues to grow, there are 3,474 cases of COVID-19 — including 54 deaths — outside of China in 44 countries. Before that, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Norway, Pakistan, Romania, and North Macedonia also reported their first cases of the virus. One of Iran’s vice presidents, Masoumeh Ebtekar, is infected. She’s one of several Iranian officials who has tested positive. Others include members of parliament Mojtaba Zolnour and Mahmoud Sadeghi; Morteza Rahmanzadeh, mayor of Tehran; and Iraj Harirchi, Iran’s deputy health minister.
Coronavirus explained
Coronavirus refers to a family of seven known viruses that can infect people. They range from coronaviruses that simply cause a common cold to the form that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV), which emerged in Asia in 2002, and the even deadlier Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV), which appeared in 2012. The name comes from the fact that under a microscope, the virus looks like a blob surrounded by crown-like spikes, a corona.
Around the world, people are using the term coronavirus, covid-19 and SARS-CoV-2 interchangeably. But experts say they actually refer to different things. The new coronavirus itself is officially named SARS-CoV-2; while he disease the virus causes in people — the fever, coughing, shortness of breath and in severe cases pneumonia and death — is named covid-19. So, SARS-CoV-2 causes covid-19, in the same way that HIV causes AIDS.
The new coronavirus is zoonotic, meaning it was transmitted from animals to people. The SARS coronavirus came from civet cats, and MERS came from camels. It’s not known what animal caused the current coronavirus outbreak. It is a mystery scientists believe they must solve to prevent a future outbreak. The prime suspect so far is the pangolin — an endangered creature that looks like a cross between an anteater and an armadillo. There is also community transmission, which refers to cases in which a disease is circulating among people in a certain area who did not travel to an affected area and had no close link to another confirmed case. This is a key indicator for which health officials are looking out, because it would suggest the virus is spreading in a location in ways that health officials have trouble tracking and containing.
To date, almost all cases in countries, except China, have been imported — or foreign nationals infected with coronavirus in Wuhan or Italy or on a cruise ship in Japan and repatriated to be treated. Or they have been cases of secondary transmission, where a patient from abroad infected a spouse or someone in close contact.
Compared with previous epidemics of SARS and MERS, this virus is relatively mild, but it is more severe than seasonal influenza. More than 80 per cent of confirmed coronavirus cases are not severe, according to a large study from China, using the best numbers available so far. But, more than two per cent of people who are infected die. Some experts think the fatality rate may actually be lower than the estimated 2.3 per cent because some cases of the infection are so mild they aren’t being counted. SARS had a 9.6 percent fatality rate, and it was 34.4 percent for MERS. Influenza has a fatality rate of about 0.1 per cent.
There are also asymptomatic carriers of the virus, meaning people who show no signs of being sick, but have the virus and can spread it to others. It is unclear how common asymptomatic transmissions are with the new coronavirus, something experts are desperate to determine, because if asymptomatic transmissions are occurring, detecting the virus and stopping its spread will be much harder.
Vaccines are one of the most effective ways to prevent disease. They work by teaching the body’s immune system to recognise and fight specific viruses and bacteria. Unfortunately, that won’t help in the immediate future, as pharmaceutical companies are racing to develop vaccines for the new coronavirus in record time. One company, Moderna, hopes to start clinical trial in April and have results ready by July or August. Vaccines may prove critical to preventing a recurrence of coronavirus outbreaks.
Anti-viral medicines, which fight against other viruses in the body, have a better chance of helping with the current outbreak. The drugmaker, Gilead Sciences, is conducting clinical trials in Wuhan of the antiviral drug remdesivir as a possible treatment for the new coronavirus. The U.S. National Institutes of Health said the drug’s effectiveness will also be studied on some American patients in Nebraska, who were returned from overseas. One reason experts are interested and hopeful is that a man hospitalised in Washington State was treated with the antiviral drug and experienced an improvement of his symptoms.
The cost of a vicious virus
Due to travel bans and cancellation of business deals, the world stock markets have continued to slump, amid growing alarm over the global spread of coronavirus. Reports put the loss in hundreds of billions of dollar. With the World Health Organisation warning that the Covid-19 outbreak had “pandemic potential,” £62 billion was wiped off the value of Britain’s largest companies. The FTSE 100 fell 3.3 per cent, its worst day in four and a half years. European markets endured their worst session since 2016. On Wall Street, this year’s gains on the Dow Jones industrial average were wiped out.
As officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have warned that the novel coronavirus may spread in US communities, health officials are saying it is the time for people in the United States to prepare for canceled events, closed schools and interrupted work, and for the potential of widespread illness. The CDC has released travel warnings and alerts in relation to coronavirus disease. It recommended that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to mainland China and South Korea. Travel alerts for older people and people with chronic medical conditions to consider postponing nonessential travel have been issued for Italy, Iran and Japan. Widespread transmission of the novel coronavirus could lead to schools, child care centers and other places for mass gatherings experiencing more absenteeism and even shutting down if that precaution is needed, public health experts said.
The United Nations Specialised Agency for Health Coordination and Management advised employers “to make sure workplaces are clean and hygienic, ensure desk surfaces and intercoms wiped with disinfectant regularly. “Brief employees, contractors, and customers that if COVID-19 starts spreading in your community, anyone with even a mild cough or low-grade fever (37.3 C or more) needs to stay at home. They should also stay home (or work from home) if they have had to take simple medications, such as paracetamol/acetaminophen, ibuprofen or aspirin, which may mask symptoms of infection. Promote regular and thorough hand-washing by employees, contractors, and customers and put sanitizing hand rub dispensers in prominent places around the workplace.
“Make sure that staff, contractors and customers have access to places where they can wash their hands with soap and water because washing kills the virus on your hands and prevents the spread of COVID19. Ensure that face masks and/or paper tissues are available at your workplaces, for those who develop a runny nose or cough at work, along with closed bins for hygienically disposing of them as good respiratory hygiene prevents the spread of COVID-19.
“Advise employees and contractors to consult national travel advice before going on business trips. Most of these droplets fall on nearby surfaces and objects – such as desks, tables or telephones. People could catch COVID-19 by touching contaminated surfaces or objects – and then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. If they are standing within 1 or 2 meters of a person with COVID-19 they can catch it by breathing in droplets coughed out or exhaled by them. In other words, COVID-19 spreads in a similar way to flu.” WHO stated that there was a high risk of the disease spreading to more countries around the world, hence all sections of the society – including businesses and employers – must play a role to stop the spread of the disease.
NMA President calls for calm
Despite having a confirmed case of coronavirus in the country, Dr. Francis Faduyile, national president of the Nigeria Medical Association, said Nigerians have no reason to panic. He hinged his optimism on the level of preparedness by the state and federal governments. “The first thing I want to say is that Nigerians have no reason to panic. Coronavirus is still limited to the index case, and if we are very lucky, the index case may not have affected others. Since the government is doing contact tracing, and those who have had any contact with the index case are being quarantined, I know that the incubation period is 14 days. Therefore, over the next two weeks if they do not show signs, it means that the single infection we have in Nigeria, whatever is the outcome for the index case will have been contained.
“In the case of Ebola too, Nigerians rose quickly and swiftly, and we were able to contain it. I am very convinced that we will be able to contain this too. Most importantly we need to let people know that practicing good hygiene, washing hands properly, and those sneezing or coughing should also cover properly to avoid spread of the virus. Also, people should stay about one meter or 1.3 meters from a person sneezing and coughing.
“Concerning the use of face masks, I think we need to educate the people; face mask is not primarily to guard against infection, but for those who have the infection not to infect others. People must also be enlightened on the proper way of putting on and disposing the face mask after use. A person can infect himself or herself and others when they don’t know how to properly handle and use the mask.
Concerning the level of response of the government, Faduyile said: “I think there is nothing much they can do than what they have done. The important thing is for them to do thorough contact tracing and have a high index of suspicion for the outbreak in case we have one or two people who have escaped the quarantine. All I know is that procurement has been taken away from the Ministry of Health to the Ministry of Agriculture, and rather very unfortunate because it is creating bottle necks. The Nigeria Medical Association (NMA), has made noise about it.
Concerning the request for additional funding request of N620m by the Minister of Health from the Presidency, he said: “Since they do not have Emergency Management Fund within the Ministry, I guess, maybe that is why he is asking for those special funding. The most important thing here is that there is no procurement going on in the Ministry of Health; everything is done in the Ministry of Agriculture, and I think it is high time this is stopped, for the Ministry to be able to take care of emergencies.”
Coronavirus: A pestilence foretold?
Was coronavirus well predicted long before it descended on the world? This is an issue many are yet to come to terms with, given that a number of literary works that have really feasted on a fictional virus that lethal to human existence. One of such great works of fiction is the novel “The Eyes of Darkness,” written by Dean Koontz in 1981. If a prediction is only noticed after an incident occurs, can it be regarded as a prediction? Or did Koontz, an American thriller author, predict the 2020 new coronavirus outbreak in his book? Many still believe that answers to the questions still dwell in the realm of assumptions.
However, a few things are incontrovertible. A panoptic reading of the beautiful literary piece showed that Koontz did not make such a prediction in the novel – though the work contains the words “Wuhan-400.” Apart from the name of the virus, this fictional biological weapon has little in common with the virus that has thrown the world into the panic mode since coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Those who have garbed the famous thriller author as a prognosticator per excellence had assumed that he predicted a real-world outbreak of COVID-19, coronavirus disease, making them to share relevant passages in the book.
Among other things, it’s true that Koontz named a fictional biological weapon Wuhan-400 in this novel. It’s also true that Wuhan, China, is the city at the center of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. But that’s where the similarities end. In Koontz’s novel, Wuhan-400 is a human-made weapon; while the coronavirus, on the other hand, is not. The virus was developed by labs outside of the city of Wuhan, he wrote. There is no proof yet that the new coronavirus is a creation of any lab because the virus is believed to have originated late last year in a food market in Wuhan that was illegally selling wildlife. Public health experts think the virus may have originated in bats and then passed to humans, possibly via another species. The symptoms of Koontz’s Wuhan-400 are very different to COVID-19.
In the novel, the virus has an incubation period of only four hours; while COVID-19’s incubation period is between 1-14 days. According to World Health Organisation, the most common incubation time is around five days. Koontz also describes Wuhan-400 as a disease with a kill-rate of a 100 per cent. “Once infected, no one lives more than twenty-four hours. Most die in twelve”, he wrote. COVID-19’s death rate is far from this. According to WHO, the case-fatality rate is between 2 per cent and 4 per cent in Wuhan and 0.7 per cent outside Wuhan. The symptoms described by Koontz are different to COVID-19. In his novel, Wuhan-400 causes the secretion of a “toxin that literally eats away brain tissue,” causing loss of control of bodily function. Meanwhile COVID-19 infections have a wide range of symptoms, including fever, coughing, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. Mild cases can cause cold-like symptoms, while severe cases can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory illness, kidney failure and death.
But that is not the only bad news for those promoting the author as a prognosticator. While the page from Koontz’s novel displayed on the social media is genuine, other iterations of the same book used a different name for the fictional biological weapon. In the 1981 edition of the book, available via Google Books, there were no references to “Wuhan.” In the 1981 edition, the biological weapon is called “Gorki-400” after the Russian city where it was created. While deciphering when or why the change occurred is difficult, one thing is clear: the biological weapon was originally called “Gorki-400” when “The Eyes of Darkness” was published in 1981. But by 2008, the name had been changed to “Wuhan-400.” Above all, the author did not claim that the events that took place in his novel would later come to fruition, making the ‘prediction’ nothing more than a coincidence.
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