Some of you may note that this will be my 3rd episode this year dedicated to the key issue of cost of living due to the importance of the issue in our polity and the ongoing efforts by Governments to curtail this very worrisome situation. Therefore, this is a reiteration of some of my humble contributions and additional perspectives for governments to consider while trying to alleviate the situation.
Security as a critical success factor for food security
The critical success factor to turn around the socio-economic malaise in Nigeria is first and foremost tackling insecurity. Otherwise, any other initiative will be a “flash in the pan”. This is because the recent escalation of insecurity around the northwest, north-central, and even southeast is hampering food production, otherwise, we are taking two steps forward and three steps backward. This has significantly impacted food security. The northern part of Nigeria is the food basket of the nation and is arguably some part of the West African sub-region. Farmers have gone to the farm late this year. Climate change is impacting, and the danger of food insecurity is looming. There is a need for quick actions
The recently concluded meetings of the Southern Governors meetings and the ongoing North-West Governors Summit on Security and also the just concluded meeting on security by the North-East region State Directors of the Department of State Security Services (DSS) clearly show how Federal and State governments are prioritizing the issue of Security in governance. What remains to be seen is how the meetings and engagements will result in tangible positive outcomes. This is because, without security, there will be no peace or any form of development.
The 2024 rainy season came a bit late but as it settles in, there are major concerns of the projections of poor yield this year due to the late start of the rain, excessive heat, floods, and crops diseases due to global warming. The projections are already becoming realities especially as the rainy season started late in the northern part of Nigeria, and more importantly insecurity issues. In the past 3 weeks, the terrorist attacks on communities in Katsina, Zamfara, and Niger States are going on unabated, with some villages around Danmusa in Katsina State almost sacked. These in addition to other areas in Nigeria. These are agrarian communities that are critical to food production. Unless our communities and villages are safe, we will face imminent food scarcity by the 4th quarter of this year which is a key harvest period and this will have devastating consequences on the already dire situation that we are facing in this Country.
Accordingly, some farmers cannot go to their farms due to kidnappings, banditry, and other forms of terrorism. And for those farmers that go to the farms they end up most likely paying three or four types of taxes/levies, i.e. Local Government levies, State Government levies, Federal Government levies, and the levies they pay to terrorists/ bandits or kidnappers. We cannot expect those farmers/up-takers to sell the products at a “reasonable” price” without considering their cost of production. In terms of production, power is not available, people have to resort to self—help to generate power at a cost that is rising (e.g. Diesel) to be able to produce goods or provide services. The government needs to be practical and sincere and address the key drivers of production in the economy so that we can turn around the rising cost of living. I also agree that there should be a measure of containment and control of over-pricing which can only be feasible if we deal with the aforementioned issues. For example, tackling insecurity at national and state levels so that farmers can go back to the farms this year’s farming season should be the first step and will be a critical success factor.
The brutal impact of rising food inflation
Of all the inflationary trends, I want governments to focus at food inflation as the key performance indicator for this economy and a driver for economic turnaround – as a “shock absorber” and as a catalyst for economic diversification. Food inflation should attract our attention more that headline inflation, and the core inflation. All food items have more than doubled their costs in the past 8 months and the prices will increase due food supply reduces due to scarcity as the rainy season sets in. Things are so bad that now a tuber of yam is split into 2 or 3 portions to be retailed. In some part of northern Nigeria, multi-dimensionally poor families and individuals are beginning to eat grasses and even dustbins are now becoming scarce of food remnants. Human beings are beginning to compete with animals for plants that hitherto human beings only feed animals. Things are really getting uglier.
Read Also: Lagos moves to curb food insecurity at grassroots
In addition to the potential low production/ yields due to inflation and insecurity, we have also exhausted our strategic grains reserves without replenishing them. Therefore, disaster is looming because potentially, by the 4th quarter of this year, the agricultural yields will not be enough to meet up with rising local demand. And as we all know food production drives the economy in terms of food security and raw materials for critical production sectors including medicine, pharmacy, textiles, etc.
Food Security
One of the key interventions that Mr. President provided was the release of over 24,000 tonnes of grains. But it is important for us to note the rule of subtraction without addition – it means we are depleting or we have already depleted our strategic reserves. So, I expect that within the whole intervention framework, that going forward, we will have plans to replenish the strategic grain reserves as quickly as possible, because the strategic grain reserves are the last lines of defense and must be available at all times. Otherwise in the next 5 to 6 months during the rainy seasons, naturally there are food shortages during the rainy seasons even without the issues of insecurity, global warming, and the depleted strategic grain reserves. It means that there is a potential disaster by quarter 4 of this year if a concerted well-thought-out strategy is in place immediately to proactively manage the impending danger.
There is a connection between food insecurity and health, education, and poverty. Because the agriculture value chain produces not just food, but raw materials for industries, raw materials for medicine, and healthcare. Food insecurity will also increase the rate of malnutrition in some parts of Nigeria, especially the northern region where we have the highest number of multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians constituting about 70%. In addition, because of malnutrition and increased infant mortality, there is already a prevalence of hunger and poverty. People are dying due to hunger, and people have started resorting to desperate measures resulting in social unrest and an increase in crime.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to deal with the factors that drive inflation i.e. cost of production, availability of the products (e.g. food, or other goods and services), cost of logistics, cost of storage, availability and cost of power (electricity), insecurity, etc.
Youth Empowerment in Agriculture
The youths of any society or nation are key to the development and substance of that nation. A very worrisome situation in Nigeria is the lack of deepening commitments and impacts with regard to the support for Nigerian youths to seriously take Agriculture as a profession or business. Part of the issue is that Agriculture has been nationally unattractive and more of a campaign tool than a national and state economic development tool. Over time, successive administrations have not sustained agriculture initiatives and interventions that would have made agriculture the “go-to” industry, for people to be encouraged to join farming.
Role of states and local governments
The importance of the roles of the States and Local Governments to improve our Agricultural value chain and its socio-economic contributions cannot be over-emphasized. Apart from the national agriculture sectoral reform strategy, which I have also suggested in in many for a that that we should have at the Federal level, the State Governors, the National Assembly, and state assemblies need to do more in crafting their various Agriculture reform strategies that will key into the overarching national development plan while taking into cognizance their peculiarities with a view to harnessing all their agricultural resources in the states for better socio-economic impacts -short to long term.
More than any other arm or tier of government, the state governments have a more direct and tangential role to play in alleviating the lives of their people. Going forward there should be more attention from the people on the state Governors and demand for good governance accountability and performance. The coming months will be key indicators.