From Gideon Obhakhan, Benin

A watched a video recently in which Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State addressed a gathering of some people in the deputy governor’s village in Edo North. In the video, the governor talked tough like a real warlord.

He said they have suspended Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and that for Oshiomhole to be re-admitted into the party, he must first apologise to them.

He concluded by admonishing the APC National Executive Council (NEC) not to allow the national chairman to carry out any assignment on behalf of the party, since any action he takes now will be “Ultra Vires”.

I took my time to watch the video to the end not because it was interesting to watch a man display such level of ingratitude towards his benefactor, but because I wanted to seize that opportunity to identify his army and know where his strength lies.

I was disappointed when I watched the video to the end, and it turned out that the suspended ward 10 chairman of Etsako West local government area was about the most formidable politician in the gathering. The question that came to my mind immediately was whether Obaseki was going to war without an army or not.

I then took my mind back to year 2016 when we went through the rough roads in trying to make Godwin Obaseki the candidate of the APC.

I knew the strength of the people that were persuaded by the then governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole to be part of Obaseki’s political army and I know how tough that battle was considering his political obscurity at the time.

Now fast forward to today when virtually all those who stood behind him are now in the forefront of the struggle to deny him a second term ticket.

The reality today is that Obaseki has only witnessed mass exodus of his former supporters, and no corresponding addition of any person of significant political value to his team. The question, therefore, is how will he win the upcoming battles without an army?

In trying to answer the above question, a lot of suggestions have been put forward. The most popular one is that Obaseki will not contest on the APC platform, but will rather go to the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

On the surface of it and for those who are not abreast of the politics of Edo State, this may appear to be his best choice knowing that the game is up in APC. However, for those who are active players in Edo State politics, this move will be his worst move ever in his very short political career.

The reason is that he will be jumping into the lion’s den. PDP as it is today, is in disarray in Edo State especially with the recent decamping of thousands of its members to the APC. What is even more important to note is the recent threat by one of the top contenders for the PDP governorship ticket.

It is in the news that he has threatened to leave the party should they give the ticket to Obaseki. This will further diminish the already fragmented structure of the PDP and make it very difficult for Obaseki to win if they decide to give him the ticket.

Another suggestion is that Obaseki may decide to go to a relatively unpopular party where he will not face any major opposition. I am tempted to believe that Obaseki will personally prefer this option because his political calculations are usually drawn from comments on social media especially Facebook.

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In the digital space, his rating is very high, and the people appear to be behind him. In one of his recent interviews he gave kudos to the social media team, and not long ago he gave official appointments to several prominent social media team members in appreciation of their efforts so far, and charged them to continue the good works they have been doing in the digital space.

In all honesty, his media men and women are doing a very good job of drumming support for him and if the battle is to be fought in that virtual space, no one will come near Obaseki on the score sheet. However, he may be advised against this option by a few of his followers who know that the real battle is on ground and not on social media.

Others that I choose to classify as conspiracy theorists have argued that Obaseki will not follow any of the paths suggested above. Strangely, they believe that his target is to cause enough problems within the APC up to the point that there will be two parallel primaries and the battle will eventually be taken to the law courts.

In his calculation, three outcomes are possible here. First is that he wins. Second is that he loses. Third is that the court declares both primaries null and void and as such another party’s candidate will be declared governor of Edo State. Although this option remains largely in the realm of theoretical hypothesis, it is still a possibility.

The purpose of this piece however is not to dwell too much on the options but to ascertain Obaseki’s followership and how ready he is to defeat his opponent irrespective of the option he is pursuing.

I have tried my best as a key player in the politics of Edo State, to carry out an analysis of Obaseki’s strength across the three senatorial districts of Edo North, Edo Central and Edo South.

My conclusion is that as far as the 2020 governorship election in Edo State is concerned, Obaseki is just like a warlord going to war without an army. His followers are talking louder than is necessary on social media, apparently to whip up sentiments in Abuja and curry favour with innocent Edo masses who may not be aware of the desperate scheming to return for a second tenure against all odds.

Virtually all the political bigwigs that stood by him in obedience of the advice of the comrade governor, have now deserted him. Recently, this crop of leaders came out openly to make their stand known and even went ahead to suspend the governor and his close allies from the party for alleged anti-party activities.

From all indications, the only dignifying option left for Governor Godwin Obaseki is to throw in the towel. Somehow, I have the feeling that he is just buying time and talking tough for the records. I believe he wants to be remembered as that governor who didn’t give up like a coward, but fought till the end.

He may eventually surrender when the heat gets hotter as we inch closer to the party primaries, and leave everyone with nice parting words… “I did my best, but I guess my best wasn’t good enough… Adieu”.

• Obhakhan, former Edo State Commissioner for Education, wrote from Benin City.