Power, politics and diplomacy

Dayo Sobowale

I  intend  today to  use ambiguities to illustrate the topic of the day,  not necessarily  because I find that convenient  and necessary   but because of  the ways that accepted norms and values in the world democracies have taken such a tumble for the worse, that  it is becoming difficult  to follow political developments and geopolitical  issues  without wondering  if we are still  in the same world that we all  live in.

In  talking of power therefore, I  am  referring to both  electricity and political  power both locally and geopolitically . When  I turn to politics I am  taking   the meaning   of   politics being who gets what, when  and how in any political  system as well  as system- induced changes such as the ones in which   the legislature  curbs   the power of the executive or that in which the executive cuts the power of the judiciary and vice versa.  Similarly  when  I delve into diplomacy today  I am   not  only   affirming the old saying   that in diplomacy  -there are no permanent  friends  and  enemies but permanent  interests  –   but  also  the duplicitous type that  sports  the dictum   or saying that goes thus –  play  me foul  and I play  you  tricky.  Which  unfortunately  seem  to be in vogue  in world politics  and international relations  nowadays.

Let  me now put  some meat  on the skeleton of ambiguities   that  I   have  contrived today,  before I  spice the dish   with very  glaring changes in the concepts that  I want  to  dissect  in this piece. The  first  is the news by our Minister of  Finance, Budget   and   National  Planning  Mrs  Zainab  Ahmed  that  Nigeria  wants to borrow about 3bn dollars  from the World  Bank to  carry  out  reforms  in Nigeria’s energy and electricity sector. Envision that  necessity  ,  crucial for Nigeria’s economic  sanity and compare it with   the letter  that  the  US President  Donald  Trump   sent  to Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan   not  to be a fool  and a devil but  to withdraw Turkish  troops  killing the Kurds inside Syria,  a sovereign state on its own. Lace  this with   the US President retort  to criticism of his   gut   and abrupt   decision to withdraw US troops   from   Syria and his silencing of his questioner  with the answer  that   the  Syria- Turkey  border is not an American  border,  And that he Trump  was elected on the promise  to protect American  borders   and that more importantly he has brought US  troops  home alive from  a foreign  war  and  Americans  are happy with him.

First  of all,  let  me congratulate  the Nigerian  government  for  not giving up on Nigerians  seeing light at the end of the tunnel  in terms of constant and available supply  of electricity needed for   good quality of  life, health and overall  economic development of both the Nigerian citizenry  and its polity. But  I also  sound  a note of warning.

Just as in the fight against  corruption when  government underrated  the power of corruption to fight  back   and is ruing its  consequences,   the government   must  arm itself against   organized    opposition   to its power  reforms   strategies.  This    is because   there  are vested interests ready to  die rather than  see  successful   electricity  reforms  in  Nigeria. The     generators  sellers  have a strong lobby  in ensuring that  power reforms  do  not take off. They  had an  ally  in the Nigerian legislature   before  when a Speaker  notoriously  asked what  the generators sellers would eat  if  the   then NEPA functioned effectively. In  this  present   3bn   dollars  loan  dispensation the Finance Minister should  quickly let the public know the beneficiaries of the new loan.  Is  it the existing   power  distributing    companies   called   discos and   power  generating  companies called  gencos  or are  new ones to come on board ? If there  are to be new ones what will  happen  to the huge investment  of the old  discos and gencos  and     will  there be compensation of any kind?  More  importantly  how  will  government handle oversight function of the  Nigerian  legislature which  had in the past  frustrated tariff  increases that  go with best global practices just  to score cheap political goals  that it is more  patriotic  than those  in charge  of electricity  when indeed it is feathering its own nests at the expense of Nigerians  in dire need of electricity. On disbursing the new loans  on power reforms  the Minister should  look into  the archives  on power reforms  and  be guided by the saying – once bitten, twice shy.

Let  us now look at  the face off between  Turkey and US both  of which  have powerful and highly  ego  centric leaders  who readily  fit the bill  for  diplomatic Rumble  in the Jungle  like the one that Mohammed Ali  faced against the powerful  puncher George Foreman in Zaire sometime ago. Only  this time the Rumble is in the deserts of Syria and not Zaire and the prey  are the Kurds who  have been betrayed by the American President who used them against  ISISS successfully  but abandoned them saying they  are not angels. This is  the second time an American President will betray  those it financed and trained to bring down   the Syrian regime of President  Assad in Syria. Former US President Barack  Obama drew a redline for Assad  when it was discovered that Assad  had used  chemical  weapons against  his people but nothing happened. And now the Kurds have swallowed their pride  and are waiting for Assad  and the Russians to save them  from the murderous Turks  whose  president reportedly  threw into the dust bin Trump’s  letter threatening to destroy Turkey’s  economy if  President  Erdogan  does not withdraw  Turkey’s  army  marching against the Kurds in Syria. Trump  might  still  be able to claim  that  his brand  of diplomacy  is good for the Middle  East  where he lamented   once  that  ‘they are always killing themselves’.  But  his brand of betrayal  diplomacy  is at best a dubious one, even though it has created the embarrassment   for  Russia  not being able to look away as Syria, a Russian  ally  and the reason  Russia intervened in Syria to save the Assad  regime,   is about   to  clash with Turkey,  a new military  business  customer  of the Russians.  Trump  could claim he has made the Middle  East combatants  to   stew in their own urine and has  made it mandatory  for the ambitious Russians  to clean the bloody  mess while he   has kept  American troops  out of harm’s way.  Unfortunately   it will be  difficult to dismiss  such  a claim with a wave of the hand. Like  the Chinese are wont to say on such occasions – we live in interesting times . Once again long live that Federal Republic of Nigeria.