There was no prediction about a free and fair direct governorship primary in the Ondo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The outcome of the exercise, therefore, was not that surprising. Without prejudice to the report of the Governorship Primary Appeal Committee, the shadow poll has been won and lost.
But that may not be the end of the matter.
The Primary Committee, headed by Usman Ododo, governor of Kogi State, declared Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa winner of last weekend’s intra-party contest, to the consternation of his divided and scattered rivals who now contest the outcome. Petitions were submitted to the appeal panel and other contenders have also taken their protests to the media.
There are spirited calls for outright rejection of the result, cancellation of the primary, and conduct of a fresh poll by another panel. The aggrieved aspirants and chieftains hinged their calls on what they described as obvious irregularities.
The complaints revolve around the non-distribution of election materials transparently, lack of result forms or sheets, and isolated violence in some wards and local governments.
There are threats by some contenders that if what they described as injustice is not redressed, they may explore other options ahead of the November poll.
The threat has two interpretations. The first part is that the other contenders may defect and team up with foes outside the ruling party on poll day. This may affect the chances of the party. The second part is that they may stay in the party and till subvert its candidate at a critical time. This is more dangerous.
But exuding confidence, Aiyedatiwa’s Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Dr. Kayode Ajulo, said the primary followed due process and the party’s constitution. Even, the governor has challenged his rivals at the primary to provide convincing evidence of rigging.
A party’s primary is a divisive factor in electioneering. Usually, there is one ticket being chased by many contenders. Although no selection approach or process is perfect, the main issue is that most governorship primaries are hardly insulated from perceived deficiencies. Substantial compliance is a tall order. It is an affront to internal democracy.
Whether by consensus, direct primary, or delegate system, party primaries are fundamentally skewed to the advantage of incumbent governors. If it is the non-capital-intensive consensus model, which is a by-product of the age-long convention formulated by the residual class of men of the old order, the ultimate beneficiary is the governor who cannot be sidelined during the selection process.
An indirect primary is what most governors prefer. Half of the delegates are his aides. They include commissioners, special advisers, all appointees, many elective office holders, and grassroots party officers. For the governor’s challengers, who are often intimidated by his formidable structure, the fear of statutory delegates is the beginning of wisdom.
The participants know that they are loyal to the core; loyalty being the sole criterion for their retention as kitchen cabinet members. Anyone suspected of disloyalty becomes a target of the war of liquidation in official circles.
The result of the delegate system is predictable. It is a primary for the decoration of the governor as the candidate.
The most problematic is the direct primary. It is neither here nor there. While it has been sufficiently rationalised as the key to fuller democratic participation at the party level, the conditions for success may be absent. For example, the party register may not be up to date. Also, non-party members can just come in droves on the eve of the primary for registration as party members. They are not turned back. Since the whole exercise still depends on the state’s party structure, the governor, who is the party leader, is likely to always have his way.
Governors who are sent to states to conduct primaries are viewed with suspicion. Everyone perceives them as colleagues of their incumbents on a mission to do their bidding for the ticket. The allegation is that they may be eager to pander to the whims and caprices of their colleagues.
The Governors’ Forum is the most formidable political cult in Nigeria. Presidential candidates mostly depend on the governors to win their states. So powerful are the governors that they recommend ministers, special advisers, and corporation chiefs to be appointed by presidents, although they are free to appoint their commissioners, special advisers and other aides without an input from anyone.
However, while a governor may dominate the primary, which may be cast in his image as the state party leader, chief executive, chief security officer and controller of the state treasury, the real election may be a different ball game, if he does not put his house – the ruling party in the state – in order.
Opposition parties are not likely to sleep on guard. Their candidates may be ready to profit from the division and polarisation of the ruling party.
Ondo APC is bubbling with confidence that the state chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a famished lion that cannot roar. Such an assessment may not be accurate. Overconfidence is dangerous. Currently, only a thin line separates APC and PDP in Ondo State. The PDP candidate, Agboola Ajayi, has links in the APC, and vice versa.
To analysts, there is the reality of the post-primary crisis in Ondo APC. No fewer than 14 aspirants are kicking. Many of them are either founding chieftains or long-standing party members with a history of genuine commitment to the platform. They love the ruling party and the state, and their ambitions are legitimate. Therefore, their complaints and threats should not be ignored.
The next challenge before Aiyedatiwa, the state party officers and elders is genuine reconciliation; a sort of peace-building and fence-mending, give and take, abolition of ‘winner-takes-all’ and extension of meaningful opportunities for inclusion. The Ganduje-led National Working Committee (NWC) has started the peace move. It should be sustained.
The party’s primary is just one level of the general electioneering which will culminate in wider participation among the indigenes and residents on poll day. The factors that may shape the poll may contrast with issues that have shaped the primary.
Aiyedatiwa came from the back, as it were, in the long queue, to become the governor and party leader. Fate had catapulted him to the front burner as the main beneficiary of the incapacitation of his former boss, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, who passed on last year. The governor’s ascendancy naturally provoked envy among peers, leading to ‘siblings rivalry’. As power was gradually landing on his palm, he was accused of impatience, immoderate eagerness and undue excitement.
He fought hard to survive the impeachment move against him. Once he inherited the driver’s seat, he immediately consolidated his hold, not only on the government, but also on the party. He dissolved the State Executive Council (Exco). When it was being reconstituted, there was an intra-party uproar, which he dampened in his next array of appointments.
Some experienced party elders backed him and aided his aspiration with the novel aboriginal structure. Self-confident, the governor has been forging ahead towards the November poll.
But now, he needs more support and assistance.
Aiyedatiwa is the custodian of the APC ticket. But party members should be allowed to take collective ownership of the flag. This is possible through genuine waving of the olive branch, a clear display of humility and demonstration of a genuine intention to bring everybody on board. It should start with the setting up of a broad-based campaign organisation that will enhance inclusion and give the diverse interests in the party a sense of belonging.
Crisis resolution is always weak in progressive platforms. Their leaders usually allow a crisis to escalate before thinking about a resolution. The reconciliation committee set up by the national leadership can as well kick off its assignment in Ondo State – to reconcile aggrieved aspirants and their supporters and followers. It is in the interest of the ruling party.
To pacify those who lost in the primary, the current administration could be reconstituted to reflect diverse interests and foster unity and cohesion in the chapter. Aiyedatiwa should be less combative and more condescending. Much sacrifice is expected from the governor.
The onus is on Aiyedatiwa to drive the compelling reconciliatory vehicle aimed at preventing defections and polarisation in the interest of the party.
His style of handling the reconciliation will either motivate them to make more sacrifices and see his ticket as a joint ticket, or cause dissensions that could upset the party’s chances in the November poll.
All eyes are on the governor to give concessions, build consensus and unite the party ahead of the November poll.
