Coronation in Oyo, Ogun; epic battle in Lagos
Group Politics Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, takes a look at the aspirants and the issues that would determine the result of the APC gubernatorial primaries
AS next year’s elections gather momentum, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has a major challenge in the Southwest, which is perceived as one of its strongholds. This is the challenge of managing the governorship primaries that will produce its flag bearers in three states; Oyo, Ogun and Lagos, where governorship elections will hold. According to observers, the major concern is how to prevent post-primary crisis, which has always been the albatross of the progressive bloc at periodic elections.
As the three states go through the rigour of the selection process, the remaining three chapters-Ekiti, Osun and Ondo-will devote attention to parliamentary elections. Two years ago, the progressive family lost the Ondo governorship poll. Few months ago, it also lost Ekiti to the PDP. But, it survived in Osun, where its candidate, Governor Rauf Aregbesola, was re-elected.
Ogun:
The shadow poll in Ogun State will be a walk over for Governor Ibikunle Amosun, who is seeking re-election. He has no rival at the primaries. He is a lone ranger in the race. Perhaps, the chapter is taping from the tradition of conceding the nomination to an incumbent, in recognition of his constitutional right to a second term and his achievements in the first term.
Two weeks ago, the governor rounded off his “popularity tour” of the local governments. He was endorsed for second term across the three districts. In fact, one of his aides, Soyombo Opeyemi, said Amosun is prepared for 2015. “The governor has lived up to expectation as attested to by his achievements across the sectors. Many people want him to continue beyond 2015,” he added.
Amosun controls the party machinery at ward, local government and state levels. He is also loved by national party leaders, who believe that he has done the APC proud, owing to his feats across the sectors. A native of Owu, Amosun has been endorsed by Egba monarchs and community leaders for a second term. In Egbado and Ijebu/Remo areas, his works, especially the urban renewal programmes and successful infrastructural battles, speak for him.
However, after securing re-nomination, the governor will have to gird his loins. The ruling party is polarised in Ogun. His deputy, Prince Segun Adesegun, and three senators-Alhaji Gbenga kaka (Ogun East), Segun Obadara (Ogun Central) and Akin Odunsi (Ogun West)-are up in arms against him. The three senators who have defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have the backing of the APC leader, former Governor Olusegun Osoba. Some members of the House of Assembly have also deserted the governor. Therefore, while Amosun will not be opposed at the primaries, which will pale into a mere coronation for him, he will have to gird his loins as he prepares for the general election.
Oyo:
In Oyo State, the governorship race is no more a matter of conjecture. Unlike Amosun, his Ogun State counterpart, Governor Biola Ajimobi has a rival at the primaries. But, the aspirant, Adebayo Shittu, a lawyer, former lawmaker and Commissioner for Justice, is not perceived as a formidable challenger. His support base, according to watchers, is thin. His structure is also weak. Besides, Shittu lacks a formidable financial muscle. Many party stalwarts have described him as a loyal paper weight politician. A source said he entered the race, following the sentiment against the governor in some quarters that he has not done well. Reflecting on this perception, a zonal officer of the party, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said: “Bayo Shittu is like a spoiler in the race. I tell you that he will not get up to 10 votes at the primaries.” However, Shittu, in a chat with reporters in Lagos, said that “Oyo APC needs a fresh blood to win.” He explained that, despite the control of “party power” by the governor, many indigenes have an axe to grind with him over his alleged politics of exclusion.
Ajimobi has been endorsed by individuals, groups and associations. APC chieftain and former deputy governor, Iyiola Oyedokun, who noted that the governor has the right to seek re-nomination, said “he has tried his best.” He alluded to the urban renewal programme, which has given Ibadan, the state capital, a face lift, and the construction and rehabilitation of roads. “Every government has its own focus. Anybody that goes into government must have a focus. Ajimobi has focused on some areas,” he added.
Ajimobi will emerge as the flag bearer because he wields enormous influence in the chapter. But, the political family is under stress. This has implications for the general election. Few months ago, Senators Olufemi Lanlehin and Ayo Adeseun left the ruling party. Lanlehin is joining forces with former Governor Rashidi Ladoja’s Accord Party (AP). Adeseun is teaming up with the PDP. Therefore, while it will be easy for the governor to get the ticket, he has a major battle to fight at the general election.
Lagos:
Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola will bow out from office next year after completing his two terms of eight years. The succession battle is gaining momentum in the economic hub and commercial capital of Nigeria. It has provoked interest beyond parties and the political class. Even, other states are monitoring unfolding events. APC governorship aspirants are intensifying their consultations and mobilisation.
In this electioneering period, events in the ruling party will influence the decisions by the PDP. No doubt, the struggle for the ticket may become fierce, warranting strategic defections by impatient politicians seeking the golden fleece outside their political family.
There is no shortage of competent politicians and technocrats to take over from Fashola in the APC. Observers contend that the aspirants parade intimidating credentials. No fewer than 16 chieftains are vying for the governorship. The aspirants include Senator Ganiyu Solomon, House of Representatives member, Hon. Abike Dabiri-Erewa, House of Assembly Speaker Hon. Yemi Ikuforiji, and former Accountant-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance, Mr. Akinwumi Ambode.
Others are Commissioner for Works Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, former Health Commissioner Dr. Leke Pitan, and businessmen Alobo Bakare and Adekunle Disu. Others are former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Supo Shasore (SAN) and Mr. Tayo Ayinde. Many of them are disciples and beneficiaries of Tinubu’s political philanthropy.
Last month, two aspirants-Senator Gbenga Ashafa and Transport Commissioner Kayode Opeifa-left the crowded race. Ashafa said he would re-contest for the Senate in the Lagos East. Opeifa, son of the Asiwaju of Awori, explained that he was not favoured by zoning. His political base is Agege, Lagos West. Former Environment Commissioner, Dr. Muiz Banire, may have also quietly left the race without an explanation.
Many issues will shape the shadow poll. The first is the incumbency factor. In 2007, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the former governor, was in charge. Today, Fashola is the governor, although he is not in control of the political machinery. As the party prepares for the primaries, party faithful expect the two leaders to work hand in hand, and with the active support of critical stakeholders, to midwife a worthy successor.
To an extent, indigeneship may be a factor. When the Olowo-Eko of Lagos said that “we will not allow the son of the Ewekoro monarch to rule us in Lagos,” the message was internalised by party chieftains and prospective delegates. Yet, in another dimension, some have argued that the 1999 Constitutions guarantees a level-playing field for contestants.
According to the APC leadership, zoning is a factor. In fact, the party has earlier announced that it has zoned the slot to Lagos East Senatorial District. However, aspirants not initially favoured by the zoning have traced their ancestral roots to the district. For example, Solomon has claimed that his illustrious father and strongman of Mushin, Lagos West politics, the late Chief R.B. Solomon, left Ipakodo, Ikorodu Division, for Mushin in 1949. Hamzat has claimed that he is a descendants of Ajiborisa family of Epe. Shasire has also said that he has deep seated historical links with the East. Therefore, zoning , may have paled into a weak factor.
However, despite the clamour by Christians for a “Christian governor,” religion will be a weak factor. There are Christians and Muslims in the race. Reflecting on the inexplicable factor, Shasore said that it is a non-issue, adding that stakeholders should avoid the danger of erecting religious platforms for politicking in a polity still battling with the ethnic divide. Another chieftain, Hon. Lateef Raji, a House of Representatives aspirant in Osodi/Isolo Constituency, said: “It is a non-issue. Christians and Muslims in Lagos State have co-existed harmoniously without friction. We have had more Muslims governors than Christian governors, but it is mere coincidence. In the Southwest, religion has never shaped our politics.
Echoing him, APC chieftain, Alhaji Kola Oseni, warned against setting a dangerous precedence. “In my family, among the children of my mothers, we have Muslims and Christians. Merit should be the watchword, not religion,” he said.
The lessons of Lagos politics are also instructive. But, aspirants often refuse to learn from history. Historically, it is difficult to predict who will emerge the flag bearer. Lagos State is dynamic. The political field is slippery. Therefore, the contest is always unpredictable. The first aspirant on the track may never become the winner. The history of governorship contest is replete with the emergence of aspirants who were never in reckoning before. These emergency aspirants have always breast the tape and smiled away with the crown. Instructively, eyes were not on Tinubu in 1998/99 and Fashola in 2007. But, they were thrown up by some circumstances and they won the governorship polls.
In 1999, Tinubu was warming up for the Senate, until the Afenifere leaders of Ijebu origin advised him to signify interest in the governorship. The only dissenting voice was Dawodu, who, had favoured Funso Williams for the seat. Had Dawodu, fondly referred to as the god of Lagos, signified his intention to run, he would have emerged as the candidate. Dawodu never totally forgave his Awoist friends; Senator Abraham Adesanya, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Chief Olaniwu Ajayi. The AD flag bearer, Tinubu, defeated the PDP candidate, Sarumi. He spent eight years in office.
In 2007, the defunct Action Congress (AC) had 14 aspirants. They included Jimi Agbaje, Abiodun Ogunleye, Solomon, Oyinlomo Danmole, Tola Kasali, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, and Femi Pedro. Others are Tunde Fanimokun, Bayo Ajisebutu, Kaoli Olusanya, Omotilewa Aro-Lambo, Remi Adikwu-Bakare, and Fashola, the dark horse. At the primaries, the former Chief of Staff secured the ticket.
Ahead of the selection process, the party seems to be polarised by two options-primaries and consensus. Times are changing. Miffed by the culture of imposition, some forces are pressing vigorously for internal democracy. Ironically, the beneficiaries of imposition are turning around to discredit the process that threw them up as party candidates, elected representatives and political appointees. A member of the House of Assembly, Bisi Yusuf, chided those crying foul over imaginary imposition. He said imposition has different meanings to different politicians and at different times. “When it favoured them, they embraced it. When they know that it will not favour them, they are crying foul.”
Last week, the aspirants attended a crucial meeting in Ikeja to brainstorm on consensus candidacy. A source said that it was deadlock.
The advocates of guided primaries are also being challenged. This is a major challenge. But, the reality may stare the party in the face during the primaries. When the Lagos APC opted for direct primaries at its inaugural ward congress, it was chaotic in some councils. Party leaders immediately retraced their steps. In subsequent local government and state congress, consensus was adopted and there was peace.
Perhaps, the strongest factor is mutual agreement among party leaders. A chieftain, Alhaji isiaka Adekunle-Ibrahim, said this approach is possible. He said: “The doctrine of mutual consent by the controlling leadership is very important. Ambition is important, but the collective interest of our party will be defended by our wise elders. I look forward to a brainstorming session involving Tinubu, Fashola, Ajomale and his executive committee, party elders, and members of the Gubernatorial Advisory Council and other leaders in the G 15. These eminent leaders will vet the aspirants, moderate the selection process and ensure that the right candidate emerges”.
Adekunle Ibrahim added: “The party has said that there is going to be primaries. But, the respective chapters also reserve the right of screening. The APC is strong and every effort will be made to make it stronger. Ahead of the primaries and general elections, reconciliation and crisis resolution mechanisms should also be strengthened. Our leaders-Asiwaju Tinubu, Governor Fashola, Pa Hamzat, Alebiosun, Murphy Adetoro, Rabiu Oluwa, Ajomale, Basorun, Seriki Bamu, Prince Ogunleye, Prince Oluyole Olusi, and others-will not let us down.”
Adoption:
APC contest in Lagos has witnessed intense competition because some interested parties with longstanding gubernatorial ambition had preferred the option of adoption rather than resort to open primaries as is now the case. So, the refusal of the party elders to use adoption is believed to have left some disgruntled. However, in a matter of days, the party will throw up the preferred candidate of the party members in the primaries.
Aspirants:
Solomon:
The first aspirant to have declared his interest is Solomon. Although his base is Mushin, he is a household name in Lagos. The political scientist is son of the eminent politician, the late Chief R.B. Solomon, a Second Republic leader of the UPN and an ally of Jakande. From 1998 to date, Solomon has been relevant. Apart from serving as the Chairman of Mushin Local Government Area, he is also a former member of the House of Representatives. Solomon is very popular. He is a crowd puller in Mushin and Lagos West. He became a senator in 2007 when Tinubu declined to contest for the Senate. He was re-elected as senator in 2011. Solomon is also the first contender to set up his campaign office at Ikeja. The event was witnessed by his supporters. He has been canvassing for democratic primaries. Among the party leaders backing him is Alhaji Kola Oseni.
Pitan:
The successful medical doctor from Agbowa, Epe Division, is perceived as the candidate of the Mandate Group. In post-Fashola era, the group wants to bounce back as an influential power bloc in the Centre of Excellence. He served as Commissioner for Health and Education for eight years in Tinubu Administration. In recent times, he has set up a medical mission. Any where he goes, he is accompanied by health workers who screen people for ailments. Many believe that he is fit to rule the state. Few weeks ago, his supporters started the agitation for primaries. He is intelligent and hardworking.
Ikuforiji
Ikuforiji is from Epe. He is a loyal politician. He became a member of the House of Assembly in 2003. He was re-elected in 2007 and 2011. He is the longest serving Speaker of the House. The Speaker enjoys the support of legislators as the head of the legislative arm. Under his leadership, the House has been stable. He has had the privilege of representing two constituencies-Epe and Ikeja, which are in two separate districts in the House of Assembly.
Ambode:
Ambode is a technocrat from Epe. He has set up his campaign office at Gbagada, Lagos East. At 21, he obtained a degree in Accounting from the University of Lagos, Akoka. At 24, he earned a Masters Degree and qualified as a chartered accountant. He has worked in many councils as a treasurer before he was transferred to the state civil service. He was the Auditor-General for Local Government. In 2012, the Fullbright scholar retired voluntary as the Accountant-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance, at the age of 49 years. He was the first Permanent Secretary to have done so in the history of Lagos Civil Service. When the Federal Government withheld allocations to Lagos councils, he designed the blueprint for the financial survival of the councils. His colleagues in the civil service describe him as a man of character, capability and competence.
Ambode is calm and calculating. His partisan moves in recent times suggest that he is learning at the feet of experienced political gladiators. No fewer than 60 traditional rulers from the five divisions of Epe, Ikorodu, Ikeja, Badagry and Lagos witnessed his declaration ceremony at Onikan Stadium, Onikan. The crowd was huge, brooms filled the air. Also present were Christian and Muslim clerics, wives of the Oba of Lagos, Lagos white cap chiefs, top party leaders, members of the National Assembly, party officers from ward, local government and state levels. At the ceremony, he was endorsed by ‘Conference 57’, which comprise of former local government chairmen. After the declaration, he embarked on the tour of the local governments to market himself to stakeholders. When he visited Lagos East AOC elders at Ibeju-Lekki, the elders were unanimous that he is a humble and pleasant person bubbling with ideas.
Hamzat:
The Commissioner for Works is the son of the party leader, Oba Olatunji Hamzat, the Olu of Awofora-Sogaade, Ogun State. His father was a legislator and commissioner in the Second Republic. His mother is from Lagos State. Hamzat, who holds a doctorate degree, is an easy-going professional and good manager of men and resources.
Dabiri:
Dabiri is the only woman in the race. She is a veteran broadcaster and a household name in the country. By next year, she would have spent 12 years in the House of Representatives. She was first elected to represent Ikorodu Constituency in 2003. She was re-elected in 2007 and 2011. In the Lower Chamber, Dabiri is not a bench warmer. She is the Chairperson of the Diaspora Committee. She is very popular in her district.
Kasali:
Kasali is the former Rural Development and Heath commissioner. He was the Chairman of Ibeju-Lekki Council. He was a member of the SDP in the Third Republic. When Sarunmi was about to be disqualified, he asked Kasali to obtain the governorship form. But, he declined, saying that the time was not ripe. In 2007, he vied for the position. But, Fashola emerged as the candidate. He later served as Commissioner for Special Duties. He is not a threat to any aspirant. For him, it is not a do-or-die affair.
Shasore:
Shasore is a legal luminary and a member of the Body of Benchers. He was succeeded as the Justice Commissioner by Ade Ipaye in 2011. Shasore is a close friend of Fashola. He was a delegate to the National Conference. He is a technocrat and an astute administrator. But, he is not perceived as a politician. One of the leaders backing him is former Sports Commissioner, Prince Ademola Adeniji-Adele.
Alobo-Bakare:
He is a successful businessman and party member. Those backing him for the governorship are not known. But, those close to him said he is hardworking.
Disu:
Disu retired from the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) almost three decades ago. He launched his campaign at Magodo. It was witnessed by his friends and supporters.
