With the 2015 governorship election just about 40 days away, Remi Adelowo in this report takes a look at the chances of the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and factors that would likely determine the outcome of the polls in Kwara, Nasarawa, Benue, Delta and Rivers states
KWARA 2015: Ahmed looks sure bet for second term Kwara State governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, has one major hurdle to cross in his quest for a second term in office.
Stating that the 2015 governorship election in Kwara State would be a straight contest between Ahmed, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP candidate, Senator Simeon Ajibola, is like reiterating the obvious.
Ajibola’s emergence as the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was as shocking as it was unexpected.
In the run-up to the PDP governorship primaries, the third term senator was not in the reckoning as a major contender for the ticket. Though an experienced political gladiator in the state who cut his tutelage under the revered strongman of Kwara politics, late Dr. Olusola Saraki, only very few people believed he could defeat other formidable aspirants boasting alleged strong backing from high quarters.
This category of aspirants including Prof. Abdulrahman Oba, the Chairman of Federal Character Commission (FCC), former Presidential Adviser, Senator Suleiman Ajadi, wealthy businessman, Jani Ibrahim, Senator Gbemisola Saraki and Mr. Dele Belgore, believed to be the favoured aspirant of Hajia Bola Shagaya, an influential player in the corridors of power.
Days before the primaries held, Belgore was seen as the man to beat, even as many of the aspirants reportedly faulting the process put in place to conduct the election, which they alleged, was skewed to arrive at a pre-determined outcome.
But after much hue and cry, the primaries finally held, with Ajibola beating all comers for the ticket.
Factors that would shape 2015 contest
With the election just about 40 days away, there are indications that factors, including incumbency, religion, party platform, popularity and achievements of the two major contestants would largely determine who emerges victorious on February 21.
How the three senatorial zones may vote
In Kwara South where Ahmed and Ajibola both hail from, it is not unlikely that there could be a split of votes between the two candidates in the area.
Another likely scenario is a slim victory for the PDP candidate due to religious factor as many people in the area are predominantly Christians.
Another school of thought is, however, of the belief that the incumbent governor will win the zone with a large margin due to the alleged poor performance of Ajibola, whose aspiration for a third term in the Senate was allegedly opposed by many political stakeholders in the zone until the intervention of the governor and the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki.
In Kwara Central and Kwara North, both dominated by Muslims, Ahmed appears the favourite to win the two zones.
The Central zone, which constitutes about 52 percent of the state’s voting strength, would very likely pitch its tent with the APC candidate in solidarity with Saraki, (an Ilorin indigene), who has effectively taken over his late father’s political empire.
Added to this is the influence of the traditional institution in the zone, which from historical references, had always queued behind the Saraki political dynasty in the battle for the soul of the politics of the state.
Sources also posit that the 2015 election scenario in Kwara North would follow the voting pattern in the Central zone.
Would this election prognosis remain unchanged by the time the election gets under way on February 21? Time would tell.
Almakura upbeat on second term
Nasarawa State Governor, Tanko Almakura , has been described in many quarters as a cat with many lives.
Elected in 2011 under the platform of the relatively new (now defunct) Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), Almakura defeated the then governor, Alhaji Akwe Doma, who was contesting for a second term on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
However, the euphoria of his shocking victory was tempered by the overwhelming victory of PDP candidates in the House of Assembly election, thus signaling tough times for Almakura’s tenure.
Predictably, Almakura’s relationship with the PDP-dominated House has been frosty at best. The climax of it all was the notice of impeachment served on the governor on July 14 last year, an action that almost turned the state into a theatre of political warfare.
While the impeachment process lasted, many people hastily concluded that the governor was virtually down and out. This conclusion was not misplaced after all, as powerful forces within and outside the state was hell bent on giving the governor a bloodied nose.
The governor, however, proved his political astuteness following a clean bill of health verdict by the impeachment panel set up to investigate sundry allegations leveled against him by PDP lawmakers.
Battle shifts to 2015
With the governorship primaries of the PDP and APC done with, the supremacy battle between the two major political parties in the state has shifted to February this year when the 2015 elections would take place.
Almakura versus Agabi
In the countdown to the PDP governorship primaries in Nasarawa State, Alhaji Yusuf Agabi was, undoubtedly, a dark horse in a race parading formidable aspirants including former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, Senator Solomon Ewuga and a former governor of the state, Akwe Doma.
The declaration of Agabi as the winner of the contest defied earlier projections and forecasts. Dissatisfied, Maku has called for the cancellation of the result, but his protest has gone unheeded so far.
Agabi is now set to face Almakura who, according to sources, is confident of securing a fresh mandate later next month.
Factors that would make the election very interesting include but not limited to ethnic considerations, choice of running mates by the two candidates and the crisis within the PDP fold over the outcome of the party primaries.
The battle for votes by the governor and his major opponent, sources say, would be fierce among the major ethnic Eggon ethnic group and the minority Hausa/Fulani community where Almakura and Agabi hail from.
Of the two candidates, Almakura seems to have more work to do to gain the confidence of the Eggons who are still peeved over his alleged partisanship of the crisis in the state which involved the dreaded Ombatse cult group in Alakyo resulting in the death of about 100 security operatives.
But the governor, sources further disclosed, has in the last few months, made reapproachment with some Eggon stakeholders to support his second term ambition. What may also work in the governor’s favour is the reported lack of unity among the Eggons who are yet to produce the governor since the creation of the state.
The governor’s choice of Silas Agara, his Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development and a grassroots politician of Eggon extraction as his running mate, coupled with alleged secret deal reached between the incumbent governor and Maku who lost the PDP ticket to Agabi, could prove a major determinant of the governorship election.
Benue 2015: Too close to call
The desire of Benue State governor, Gabriel Suswam, to hand over to another PDP governor in May this year seems to be hanging in the balance.
A few weeks ago, the Benue PDP elected Prince Terhemen Tarzoor as its 2015 governorship candidate. The former Speaker of the state House of Assembly polled 517 votes to beat seven other aspirants.
Alleging foul play in the process that produced Tarzoor, one of the aspirants, Samuel Ortom, defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and secured the ticket to stand as the party’s governorship flag bearer in next month’s election.
Tarzoor’s support base
Beside the support of the governor who would use his incumbency powers in favour of his party’s candidate, Tarzoor, a Tiv, is also banking on the support of the Senate President, David Mark, an indigene of the state and the influential paramount ruler of the Tiv, Dr. Alfred Akawe Torkula, to defeat Ortom, a former ally of the governor and immediate former Minister of State for Trade and Investment.
Ortom’s strengths
A household mane in Benue politics, Ortom also has many other factors going for him.
A former local government chairman in the state, former Secretary and Deputy Chairman of Benue PDP and former National Auditor of the party, Ortom also served as Director, Administration and Logistics, Goodluck-Sambo Campaign Organisation and Director of Organisation, Suswam/Lawani Campaign Organisation, which efforts brought the present government into office in Benue State.
Ortom’s deep knowledge of the inner workings in the PDP, analysts posit, would come in handy at this point in time.
The relative strength of the APC in the state, which boasts a serving senator, George Akume and some members in the state and National Assembly, and which was further boosted with the defection of Senator Barnabas Gemade, a former PDP National Chairman, who is contesting for a second term in the Senate against Governor Suswam, are clear indications that the outcome of the Benue governorship election would be too close to call.
Rivers: More than just an election
If the high wired intrigues and tension that trailed the emergence of Barrister Nyesome Wike and Dr. Dakuku Peterside as the governorship candidates of the PDP and APC respectively are anything to go by, the February governorship election in the state would be more than just an election.
Indeed, it would be a battle of egos, money, political future of the dramatis personae and much more.
For Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is rounding up his second term in office, this is one election that would define his place in the political history of the South South state.
And for his opponents, this is one ‘battle’ that nothing would be spared to reclaim the state from a man who, in the last two years, has proved a real handful.
Wike and the battle within
Riding high on the back of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP candidate is telling anyone who cares to listen that he is a man to watch out for.
But the rebellion within his party by disgruntled governorship aspirants who are alleging that the primaries was manipulated in Wike’s favour has raised fears among PDP members of likely protest votes for the APC candidate, while several attempts by party leadership to reconcile Wike with the aggrieved aspirants has not yielded significant results
Even more worrisome for PDP leaders is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy by influential opinion leaders in the state such as former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas, former militant leader, Asari Dokubo, Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a few.
Their grouse is not unconnected to the failure of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning policy of the governorship seat agreed upon in 1998 between the Upland and the Riverine areas of the state.
Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland, the same ethnic nationality like the incumbent governor, whose predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who governed from 1999 to 2007 is also from the upland.
Would agitation for power shift favour Peterside?
At a relatively young age of 45, Dakuku Peterside, has paid his dues in the politic of Rivers State.
From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro area in the House of Representatives in 2011.
But prior to being elected into the National Assembly, he served twice as Commissioner for Works (2007-2011) and concurrently served on the Board of Greater Port Harcourt Development Authority (GPHCDA).
Before his appointment as commissioner, he served as Executive Director, Development and Leadership Institute (DLI) between the year 2005 and 2007, Senior Special Assistant to Governor of Rivers State on Works (2003-2005), Chairman Opobo-Nkoro local government area from 2002 to 2003.
He also served as Special Assistant to ex-Governor Odili on Youth and Student Affairs and concurrently as a member of Board, Centre for Black and African Arts and Civilisation (CBAAC), a Federal Government arts and research establishment.
Peterside’s emergence, sources say, was a deft move by his political mentor, Governor Amaechi to rally the support of the Riverine people behind the APC in the fierce battle for the soul of the state.
Ikwerre, Ogoni are battlegrounds
With the Riverine people expected to queue behind Peterside in the election, political observers are of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or against the two major candidates would go a long way to determine who wins the election.
A few posers would suffice here: first can Governor Amaechi convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre (Wike) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants and key stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others work against Wike, who is the anointed candidate of the Presidency?
The countdown has indeed begun.
Delta: Okowa still the odds on favourite
The age-long dream of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa to govern Delta State is just one step away from being realised.
The surprise victory of the senator in the PDP governorship primaries a few weeks ago in spite of the formidable odds he had to contend with has raised optimism among his supporters that 2015 might just be his lucky year to win the exalted governorship seat.
Factors for and against Okowa
Bloc votes from the Delta North, comprising of about eight local governments, which has never produced the state governor, support of influential stakeholders including Ijaw leader, Chief E.K Clark and ex-militant leader, Government Ekpumopolo popularly known as Tompolo, in addition to the formidable grassroots presence of the PDP across the state, have been identified as major factors that would work in Okowa’s favour at the polls.
On the other hand, the reported dissatisfaction of the Urhobos, the majority ethnic group in the state which has threatened to vote against the PDP, the supremacy war between the Ijaws and Itsekiris, who are uncomfortable over the alleged overbearing influence of Ekpumopolo in the Delta PDP, it was gathered, may turn out to be Okowa’s undoing at next month’s elections.
The ex-militant leader reportedly played a pivotal role in Okowa’s victory and was also alleged to have nominated his cousin, Kingsley Otuaro, a commissioner in the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (DESOPADEC) as Okowa’s running mate.
Grumblings over his alleged influence, recent reports indicate, prompted the former militant leader to hold peace talks with Itsekiri and Urhobo leaders sometime last week. But it remains unclear if the ex-militant leader succeeded in extracting commitments from his hosts.
Can Emerhor pull any surprise?
Since he emerged as the APC governorship candidate, Olorogun Otega Emerhor appears not in any way intimidated by the political pedigree of his PDP counterpart and the relative strength of the PDP in the state.
The Nation gathered that the wealthy businessman, an Urhobo, is said to be banking on the support of his kinsmen to win the coveted seat, but the likely spilt of Urhobo votes between him, the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Great Ogboru and Okowa, coupled with the weak structures of APC could mar his chances in the February 21 governorship election.
