The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), says the country’s democracy has been tested by the fires of adversity but had remained steadfast because it is the best form of governance.
Its President, Archbishop Daniel Okoh, in a message to mark this year’s democracy day, emphasised the need for government to lead the country with integrity and put its citizens first.
“As we celebrate 25 years of uninterrupted democracy and the 31st anniversary of the widely acclaimed ‘freest and fairest’ presidential election of June 12, 1993, CAN congratulates the government and people of Nigeria.
“Our democracy has been tested by the fires of adversity, from the struggles of its early years to the present-day trials of insecurity, economic hardship and social injustice.
“Nevertheless, we remain steadfast in our belief that democracy is the best form of government for our nation.
“We urge the government to prioritise the common good, address pressing issues and ensure that our democracy serves the people, not just the interests of a few,” he said.
Okoh emphasised the importance of integrity, transparency and accountability in governance, saying that leaders must recognise that power is a sacred trust and that they would be held accountable for their actions.
He also stressed the need for unity and inclusivity, recognising the value of Nigeria’s ethnic, religious and cultural differences.
“Let us work together to build a stronger, more just Nigeria, where everyone has a voice and equal opportunity.
“As people of faith, we believe that democracy is a gift from God, and we must steward it wisely.
“We pray for divine guidance and wisdom for our leaders, and we urge all Nigerians to participate actively in the democratic process.
“Let us work together to build a brighter future for ourselves, our children and generations yet unborn,” Okoh stated.
The Chairman of the House of Representatives Press Corps, Comrade Grace Ike, has extended congratulations to all Nigerians on the occasion of this year’s Democracy Day celebrations.
Ike said the annual celebration on June 12 highlights the nation’s commitment to democracy and honors the sacrifices made for the country’s democratic freedoms.
“June 12 holds a unique place in the hearts of Nigerians, symbolizing our collective aspiration for freedom, justice, and equitable governance,” Ike, who is also Vice Chairman of the Correspondents Chapel of the Nigeria Union of Journalists, FCT Chapter said in a statement on Wednesday in Abuja.
“The events of June 12, 1993, and the subsequent journey towards democratic rule underscore the resilience and determination of our people. This day reminds us of the sacrifices made to secure the democratic rights and liberties we enjoy today.”
Reflecting on Nigeria’s democratic journey, the statement called for a collective reflection on the progress made and the challenges that lie ahead.
She further explained that democracy is an ongoing process requiring active citizen participation, accountability, transparency, and inclusiveness in governance.
Highlighting the critical role of the media in sustaining democracy, Ike reaffirmed the Press Corps’ commitment to free speech, unbiased reporting, and holding power accountable.
“Our duty is to ensure that the voices of the people are heard and that the pillars of democracy remain strong and unshakable,” she noted.
In the spirit of Democracy Day, the statement called on all stakeholders, including government officials, civil society organizations, and the general public, to renew their commitment to democratic ideals.
It urged collective efforts towards building a prosperous, just, and united Nigeria where every citizen can fully realize their potential.
She urged all Nigerians to remember the significance of June 12 as a call to action for the continued advancement of democratic values and principles.
In today’s Nigeria, it’s fashionable to be angry, negative and cynical. That, perhaps, explains why a major anniversary in our national evolution went uncelebrated amidst the din over spiralling inflation, a rising and falling naira, the Lagos-Calabar super highway, minimum wage and national anthems – old and new.
On May 29, 1999, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic took off with President Olusegun Obasanjo at the helm. Just six years earlier, on June 12, 1993, the country had trooped out to vote in landmark elections that would be celebrated as about the freest and fairest in our history.
Conducted under the so-called Operation A4 arrangement developed by noted political scientist and then chairman of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), Professor Humphrey Nwosu, voters queued behind their preferred candidates and the outcome in each unit was determined by a transparent headcount that left no room for manipulation.
What followed with the annulment of the results would go down in history as one of the high points of impunity under military rule. The cancellation plunged the nation into six years of tension and instability marked by brutal suppression of human rights and regular rumours of coups.
Some of these were trumped up charges just designed to purge potential rivals or supposed enemies. It was in one of those episodes under the regime of General Sani Abacha that Obasanjo found himself charged with plotting the overthrow of the junta. Despite international pressure to grant him and his co-accused reprieve, he would be convicted and jailed.
For perspective, it should be pointed out that as at 1999, Nigeria had been independent for 37 years. Thirty of those years were under the military following the putsch of the 1966 and the subsequent coups and counter-coups that dominated the period leading to the onset of the Second Republic in 1979. That democratic project would be short lived – truncated in 1983 by soldiers suffering from power withdrawal symptoms.
The great tragedy of military rule in Nigeria is that it prevented a democratic culture from taking root. Each time there was a coup, the constitution was suspended and all structures for civilian rule scuttled. The country would then be ruled by strange contraptions like a Supreme Military Council (SMC) or an Armed Forces Ruling Council (AFRC). They were accountable to no-one and their word was law. Penalty for opposing them was harsh detention or in other instances the death sentence. Some of the nation’s brightest officers would perish at the stakes, no thanks to the unending cycle of coups.
Given that their intervention was illegitimate, the juntas were always under pressure from the international community to restore constitutional rule. Their response was usually to propose halfhearted transition programmes like those under General Ibrahim Babangida that often led to nowhere. Abacha equally cooked up a plan which, in reality, was a contrivance that would have seen him transmuting from military dictator to civilian president. But for the unscripted intervention of death, he would have gotten away with it.
To achieve a pre-determined end there were all kinds of harebrained experiments. At some point, politicians were branded Old Breed and New Breed using very opaque parameters. Those in the former category were barred from participating in the political process – never mind what their human rights entitled them to. In reality this was just a manoeuvre to exclude some of the more experienced people from governance.
At the height of his manipulation of the process, Babangida created two artificial parties – one left of centre and the other to the right of the ideological spectrum. Politicians were then herded into these sterile camps like cattle.
The upshot is that each time the transition ended properly, the new operators of the system embarked on a steep learning curve. In many cases institutional memory became a casualty. It’s hard to imagine what kind of country we would have had, what sort of development would have taken place, had the military not meddled for 30 years.
The juntas thrived at a time when the nation was flush with petrodollars. But rather than enunciating the sort of development vision that military rulers like Park Chung Hee used to transform South Korea or Suharto adopted to change Indonesia, our soldiers were satisfied with bingeing and squandering Nigeria’s riches on white elephant projects.
The waste of trillions from the General Yakubu Gowon era through the Babangida years could have delivered the foundation for economic prosperity which the governments that came after are still struggling to lay. The consequence is a nation still wallowing in poverty in 2024.
The economic challenges facing the country and the backsliding into junta rule of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Gabon and others in West and Central Africa, has made some who were too young to experience military dictatorship think it’s an attractive option to move the country forward. It’s not.
Their time at the helm is evidence that soldiers can be more corrupt and incompetent than the civilians they toppled. The term ‘settlement’ – another word for corruption – became popular under Babangida, while Abacha turned the Central Bank into his personal piggy bank. Twenty six years after his demise in 1998, Nigeria continues to receive repatriated millions of dollars he had stashed away in several European havens.
To have stuck with democracy for 25 unbroken years is evidence of our acceptance of this way of governance. There is much to criticise in the way we’ve practiced it since 1999. Still, we must be restrained in our condemnation and begin to look more critically at how to improve. There are no perfect democracies anywhere. That’s why hundreds of years after practicing it, millions of Americans who backed Donald Trump in 2020 are now certified election deniers. Our polls may not be perfect but there has been noticeable improvement through the years.
What is evident is that the people expect more from the system. The fact they have not received the sort of dividends they anticipated reflects in their disenchantment – resulting in many voting with their feet. In 2003, the highest voter turnout was recorded at 69.1%. This has dropped with every election cycle since – hitting an all-time low last year with just 26.7%.
Restoring the people’s belief in the process, encouraging greater voter participation should therefore be the focus of the political class as the journey to the next 25 years begins. That’s why the federal government’s decision to sue the 36 states over local government autonomy is just one baby step to enable the grassroots feel the impact of government. More needs to be done in this direction.
Unfortunately, many office office holders – especially in the legislative arm – are haring off in the wrong direction, totally oblivious of what’s important. They are busy with proposals to return the country to parliamentary rule as though it has not been tried in these part. Others think the country’s greatest challenge is restructuring presidential and gubernatorial tenure to a single six-year term.
These are elite concerns that have no bearing on where the shoe is pinching the average citizen today. Our focus should be on making democracy work for the majority of our people, not in reinventing the wheel. That means deploying all the resources of government at all levels to lift our teeming millions out of abject poverty. Until we have that reset, the disconnect between governors and the governed would continue to widen.
Sir: May 29 year is now our “handover” day or “swearing” in day as against being our Democracy Day. From 2000 to 2018, May 29, was marked as Democracy Day. Now, June 12 of every year is Democracy Day.
It is sad to note that, 25 years of our journey into democracy, our political parties have neither Ideology nor clear cut differences. Our political parties are more or less platforms for capturing political power. Their funding mechanisms are still largely from the state resources instead of individual membership contributions and other activities as done in other climes. Our political parties do not have a clear cut dichotomy in terms of socio-economic outlooks or programmes.
The absence of political party formations based on Ideology is a major setback in our democracy. In advance democracies, political parties are ideologically based. People with similar ideology often team up to form a political party in order to promote their politico-economic ideology. They often seek for like minds as their members and or supporters. Members of a political party are supposed to be people who share similar political and or economic ideology.
In simple term, a political ideology could be defined as a set of doctrines or beliefs that are shared by members of a social group which forms the basis for political or economic views. More so, a political ideology is a coherent set of views on politics and what should be the role of government in the state.
Right wing political parties favour liberal socio-economic policies with capitalist economic model. On the other hand, the left wing parties favour centrally planned socio-economic policies with socialist economic model. You can never divorce or detach politics from the economy. You have to stabilize the economy for you to stabilize the polity.
Part of the reason for widespread defections from one political party to another among our politicians, especially, from the main opposition PDP to the ruling APC and vice versa is lack of political ideology. Politicians only seek for platforms to pursue their political ambitions. In Nigeria, one can safely say politicians only join parties in order to have political platforms for contesting elective offices not because they share similar political or economic Ideology. After all, the parties have no clear cut differences ideologically. As long as the situation remains, defections from one political party to another will remain a permanent feature in our political system.
We need political parties formation based on certain politico-economic ideology. Having political parties and their support based on ideology will lead to having members with principles, discipline, commitment, hard- work, sacrifice, and focus where changing parties like changing clothes will be practically impossible or drastically reduce.
For us to get it right, we should and or must discourage politicians from seeking for political power by all means and or through political parties defections. Our politicians should and or must build their parties’ support based on certain political ideology.
For us to get it right, our parties must be ideologically based and our political parties should and or must begin to galvanize their support based through the promotion of a particular politico-economic ideology not regional or ethnic consideration. Our electorate should and or must be educated towards supporting political leaders based on their ideologies not regional or ethnic consideration.
Let’s come to the issues of recruitment and selection. All over the world, leadership is what changes history. Think of the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, led by leftist revolutionary Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, aka, Vladimir Lenin, and come to terms with the fact that followership are just extras in a movie! Or, was it ‘the people’ or a determined leadership comprising few people like Awolowo, who made the deserved changes during the Action Group days? Was it ‘the people’ who built Ghana’s Volta Dam as a testimony of tenacity and human courage for which Kwame Nkrumah was ultimately sacrificed?
In Nigeria, what’s the position of training a cadre? Mhairi Black was 20 years and 237 days old when she was elected into the British House of Commons but she has been involved in politics since the age of 12. Gordon Brown who eventually became the British Prime Minister was already distributing leaflets for the Labour Party at the age of 13! In our clime, politicians are not there because they are interested in politics but because it’s a survival kit. Most of the taxi drivers in Ghana have converted their cars from Petrol to GAS (LPG). With good leaders in the saddle, shouldn’t Nigeria have attained this feat some five years back? Since cassava is grown in large quantities, shouldn’t there have been ethanol plants that could turn cassava into ethanol?
Yes, we can have all the Bimodal Voter Accreditation Systems (BVAS) in the world but an election starts from the ease of registration, ease of changing the registration and allied stuff. With these in mind, why has it been cumbersome for people to be registered in Nigeria? Of course, this wasn’t so in the past! More importantly, to change one’s registration at that time when there was no technology wouldn’t take more than two days! Tragically, Nigeria is now a different story entirely! Consider the amount of disenfranchisement going on in our universities and you’ll pity dear fatherland! The optics of the situation are so bad that even with technology in place, a student who registered at Osun State University in Osogbo but who is now on the post-study compulsory year-long national service in Calabar cannot vote. With technology, it should be easy for such a soul to change his or her registration! But that’s not so here! At every step, a man who registered in Katsina State but has now secured a job opportunity in Ogun State shouldn’t find it difficult to change his registration within two minutes. After all, aren’t we now sending money from Oyo State to Abia State via the telephone in seconds?
Keiichiro Hirano, in ‘At the End of the Matinee’, remarked: “People think that only the future can be changed, but in fact, the future is continually changing the past. The past can and does change. It’s exquisitely sensitive and delicately balanced.” Beyond any doubt, change is in the possibility of time and the total resolve of the critical mass of the population of a given society is what makes a change to come. For change to happen in any society, the governance aspect must be headed by a man or woman of understanding who can see the vision through. What’s more? The flow of change must be smooth and seamless; otherwise, social hiccups are capable of disorganizing any society. Well, were this dispensation to be headed by one nincompoop somewhere, one would have been sensing danger in the foreseeable future. But President Bola Tinubu is one king of the street who has an advantage of street wisdom. He is also an enigma who has mastered the business of governance. As fate would have it, these have mushed together to project the leadership structure for this administration.
Much is expected from Tinubu because he already has a track record of being a progressive. He commendably fought the Olusegun Obasanjo regime on the basis of a sensible federalist position. And now that the starting gun has been fired, it only remains for him to take control of the ladder. Now that history is right therefore before him, Nigerians expect the president to demonstrate his commitment which is laudable to a federalist state. The president must first and foremost see himself as a patriotic, original Nigerian who is above tribal, religious and clannish sentiments.
Tinubu’s government is expected to dust the Uwais Report which so far has attacked all forms of elections and democratic deficits in Nigeria. Since governance and credible elections are interwoven, that the Report has continued to gather dust has only shown that successive governments were not interested; and that’s too bad for democracy.
Unlike countries like Brazil, Australia, Argentina and Seychelles where voting is mandatory, it is because Nigerians have switched off that voter turnout in Nigeria has successively become pathetically low. In the aforementioned countries, a defaulter could be fined the equivalent of the minimum wage but do our leaders even pray for mandatory voting in Nigeria? Unlike what obtains in sane climes where elections are permanent campaigns of sorts, elections in Nigeria are just four-yearly rituals.
In the normal manner, Nigeria should by now be thinking about Diaspora voting, for Nigerians abroad cannot be contributing more than $20b to the country’s economy annually without having the right to vote. Remove $20b from Nigeria’s Balance of Payments and current accounts and one doesn’t need to be an econometrician before understanding that NGN would by now have been standing at N1,800.00 to the dollar. Again, if Diaspora voting could happen in Kenya, why has Nigeria remained an effort flying in the air?
Tinubu’s government also needs to fight for a living wage to act as a reflationary stimulus to attract investments. In doing that, it should go to the Awolowo school of thought which saw the living wage as an investment thing. Besides, it’s time Nigeria went back to the past in terms of a constitutional rearrangement that’s based on production, not consumption, to prevent the roads of governance and elections from being tarred with sharing, for he who controls the government controls the cutting of the cake. Nigerians are suffering and are finding it difficult to breathe. But, since the poor on this part of the globe are not organized, they can only cry but their voices won’t be loud enough to attract reasonable attention.
Have we forgotten that majority of the adherents of ‘dìbò kóo sebè’ (vote and collect money for a pot of soup) political arrangements are the uneducated and the unlettered? Of course, when this class is obliterated, it means that the country is growing. After all, we all know what that means in a country like Nigeria where the poor must be kept perpetually poor! The notorious truth is that there will be no peace until the masses get back their society for, when the people are not gainfully employed, they will be engaged, of course at a cost that governments across board don’t seem to understand. Obviously, that’s what’s giving the government some leverage; and that’s what has paved the way for all sorts of mix. That’s what the fracas in Rivers State is all about! That it is about good governance is just a rumour in the Tea Room!
Lastly, let it be noted that a country that allows a people who formed themselves together for the reason of the security of the stomach has already opened the door to terror and associated consequences. Therefore, unless Nigeria goes back to the spirit of the 1963 Constitution, the country will continue to be a familiar figure in labour loss!
May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
Governorship candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the September 21 election in Edo State, Dr. Isaiah Osifo, has said ‘cash-and-carry democracy’ would slide into authoritarian government or degenerate into a revolution if the alienation of the citizens continues unchecked.
He spoke as the guest lecturer at the 16th anniversary of The Reliance Newspaper in Benin. The paper is published by Sir Ralph Okhiria.
Osifo, a former two-time Chairman of Uhunmwonde Local Government Area, and ex-Chief of Staff to former Governor Oserheimen Osunbor, spoke on ‘Democracy in Africa: The Roles of Moneybags in the Nigerian Politics’.
He said: “Moneybags are in politics for business, in order to make profit, not for service. The citizens must know and be vigilant to identify those that are in politics for service, and those that are in to take the resources of the state for their personal use.
“A people or an organisation that places emphasis on money over good character, is bound to fail.”
There is a problem about the institutional framework in which the Nigerian state as presently constituted is based. To have democracy, good governance and credible elections, there must be institutional reforms and great accountability in government. The three are interwoven, only that we tend to think that democracy is all about elections. In any case, the fact that those ingredients are currently missing is an indication that Nigeria still has a long way to go. After all, without democracy and governance, there can’t be credible elections.
To put it politely, Nigeria, even as we speak, has very weak institutions, and without a functional justice system, she can’t be said to have credible elections. For any democracy to stand and be as its definition, the power of credibility cannot be underestimated. However, the achievement or otherwise of this ‘credibility’ is a huge task, because credibility means different things to different actors in democracy, more so as the definition hovers around the same center: the people. Notwithstanding, the issues of credibility in our elections requires a serious conference, taking into consideration the level of litigations that always go with elections in Nigeria. Take, for example, the United Kingdom where only one electoral dispute has ever gone to court over a long period of time. Of course, it is because she has a functional judiciary and nobody would want to waste his resources on frivolous litigations. The lawyer who handles such cases can even be disbarred. So, how come Nigeria remains a semi-democratic country 25 years into the 4th Republic?
In any serious democracy, it is the government that sets the right template for an election to hold. Unlike countries like Spain, France, South Africa, even some other African countries, Nigeria needs a constitutional court so that her political practitioners can originate and conclude constitutional issues in record time. In a constitutional court for instance, the needless imbroglio currently troubling the peace of Rivers State won’t even take more than two to three weeks to resolve, instead of this long-winded abracadabra, which is no doubt affecting the perception of Nigeria as an unserious economy.
What we are saying is that governance and elections are intertwined and that a political economy that is lacking in internal security mechanisms, weaponizes and actually glorifies poverty is not one where credible elections can be held because it is based on state capture. In a country under the subordination of the state to powerful individuals and vested interests, the idea is to make the people very poor so that, on an election day, prospective voters can be induced. Even when there’s no election, the masses are induced with palliatives. The tragic truth is that political entrepreneurship has become the parameter for politicking and the determinant of victory. Otherwise, why should minimum wage even be a debate in Nigeria?
Again, that’s where the late Obafemi Awolowo excelled as a leader! But how come successive leaders have not been seeing the link between the minimum wage, the purchasing power parity and investments? Call it an election gimmick but that’s why Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State deserves a standing ovation. Well, it’s not that N70,000 as minimum wage for workers in the state is fair enough but then, the governor has demonstrated that a worthy credit analyst would prefer Benin City where the purchasing power parity is N50,000.00 to Gusau where the purchasing power parity is N31,000.00. In a way, Obaseki has shown that, for any economy to attain its potentials, it is better to have 15 million people who are on a living wage of N105,000.00 per month than to have 200 million people who are on a minimum wage of N30,000.00 per month.
‘Ojú to dilè ni iroré ń so.’ (Pimples usually infect an idle face. The notorious truth is that we can’t have functional democracy, good governance and credible elections without a sound educational system. Had Nigeria also been blessed with a sensitive political class, Nigerians would have been benefiting from free and compulsory education as far back as 1974 or 1975. Of course, the difference would have been that Nigeria would not have been having all these problems because of a better educated population. Matter-of-factly, the better educated the people are, the better and the saner the choices. A better educated population is a better informed and more productive population. But when politics fails to deliver its goods to the people, waiting for much chemistry to work at the same pace for development to show up becomes the norm. Obviously, that’s what Awolowo got right and that’s why people like Joseph Stiglitz won the Nobel Prize for Economics.
Secondly, compulsory education is the best form of population control. On the day of Nigeria’s independence in 1960, the United Kingdom as the parting colonial power had 7 million more people than Nigeria. Whereas Nigeria’s population grew from 44,928,342 in 1960 to 229,152,217 in 2024, the British population has grown by only 15.34 million since 1960. The implementation of the Education Act of 1947, which made education free and compulsory up to the age of 18 in the UK led to the halving of her population within one generation. Why and how? Educated people “marry later” and have fewer children. What’s more? Educated populace is better skilled, has higher purchasing power parity and many other advantages. That’s why countries like Italy and Japan have declining population growth. They are actually begging and bribing their citizens to have more children. For Nigeria, the story is pathetically different!
Forget the delusion of grandeur, unless some steps are taken in the right direction, Nigeria as a country may be fast sliding into irrelevance. For example, South Africa is currently the biggest economy in Africa, of course with the soundest fundamentals. She is followed by Egypt and Algeria and only God knows the true occupier of the 4th position between Nigeria and Morocco. South Africa has strong institutions of the state. As a matter of fact, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is already terrified of losing the forthcoming elections. Most importantly, she has basic industries like iron and steel and machine tools. So, she manufactures and exports cars to Europe. Unlike Nigeria, South Africa doesn’t assemble cars. As former President Donald Trump said: “if you don’t have steel, you don’t have a country.” In terms of fundamentals therefore, how to arrest Nigeria’s descent into irrelevance should be the key question.
But how did we get here? When Nigeria decided to throw away the Lyttleton’s, 1960 and 1963 Constitutions, it became obvious that the country was gone. Brazil currently operates the 1988 Constitution, which is the 7th enacted since the country’s independence in 1822, and the 6th since the proclamation of the republic in 1889. Look at today’s Brazil! She’s currently the world’s 9th largest economy. Not only that, 92% of all new cars sold in Brazil are powered, not by petroleum motor spirit, pms, but by the ethanol derived from sugarcane. For greater certainty, Brazil is a huge producer of sugarcane. Impliedly, had Nigeria kept up her existence on the 1960 and 1963 Constitutions, she’d have been powering not less than 92% of her cars by ethanol derived from cassava. After all, dear country is currently the world’s largest producer of cassava with an annual output of over 34 million tonnes of tuberous roots. What this means is that, instead of buying a litre of pms for N700.00, ethanol derived from cassava would not have cost more than N130.00. Besides, that would have been a boost for agriculture and industry would have been competitive because its cost would be lower. Added to these is that the destiny of employment generation in the country would have been given a lift-up.
The year 2024 stands as a pivotal moment for the world’s most robust democracies, serving as the ultimate test for the strength of their democratic institutions. With elections either underway or looming on the horizon in numerous nations, the scrutiny on these institutions has intensified. IBRAHIM ADAM writes about the intricate dynamics surrounding countries that have completed their electoral processes, those still in progress, and those yet to embark on their electoral journeys.
This year, an estimated 64 countries, collectively housing around 2 billion people, are gearing up for general elections. Notable nations in this line-up include the United States, the United Kingdom, Chad, South Africa and India, each wielding significant influence on the global stage. The outcomes of these elections hold profound implications, influencing the trajectories of established democracies and emerging nations alike.
While some elections may be overshadowed by violence, the prevailing trend suggests that most will encounter disruptions, presenting challenges to both security and foreign policy. Issues such as restrictions on opposition candidates, voter apathy and the proliferation of manipulation and disinformation have taken centre stage in many campaigns, prompting concerns regarding the integrity of the electoral process.
The upcoming European Union election carries substantial implications for its member states, influencing policies and alliances within the bloc. Meanwhile, ongoing political unrest in nations like Mali and Burkina Faso presents challenges as efforts to restore civilian governance encounter delays and uncertainties amid military interventions. Recent elections in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Croatia, South Korea, Slovakia, Senegal, Russia, Iran and Pakistan have produced diverse outcomes, underscoring the multifaceted nature of global democracy. Against this backdrop, the international community watches with keen interest, acknowledging the pivotal role elections play in shaping the trajectories of nations and the broader global landscape.
Countries yet to conduct election
India, home to a population of 1.4 billion people, is gearing up for a crucial election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive five-year term. With over 900 million registered voters set to cast their ballots between April and May, the outcome of the election holds significant implications not only for India but also for regional stability and global affairs. As a key player on the global stage, India’s election will shape its future trajectory, impacting economic development, regional dynamics and its role in addressing pressing global challenges.
The European Union (EU) is preparing for elections to the European Parliament scheduled to take place from 6 to 9 June. With over 400 million voters spread across 27 member countries, this election will see the participation of a significant portion of the EU’s population. Notably, the EU election stands out as the world’s largest transnational election, encompassing a vast geographical area and crossing numerous borders. As voters exercise their democratic rights, they will elect a total of 720 members to represent them in the European Parliament, shaping the future direction of the EU and influencing its policies on various fronts.
The United States is gearing up for its highly anticipated elections scheduled for November 5. With a population of 341 million, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications not only for the nation but also for the global political landscape. The upcoming elections are poised to witness a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already dynamic political scenario. With more than 160 million Americans registered to vote, the electorate holds the power to shape the future trajectory of the country. Voters will cast their ballots to choose the 47th President of the United States, who will assume office in the White House for a four-year term starting from January 2025. As the world watches closely, the results of the U.S. elections will undoubtedly shape policies, influence international relations and set the course for the nation’s domestic agenda for years to come.
Latin America is poised for a series of pivotal elections in the coming months, with several countries preparing to cast their votes. On May 5, four nations, including Panama with a population of 4.41 million, will head to the polls, followed by the Dominican Republic on May 19, with a population of 11.5 million. Uruguay, with a population of 3.5 million, will hold its election on June 2, adding to the electoral fervour in the region. Meanwhile, Mexico, with nearly 100 million eligible voters, is gearing up for its presidential election on June 2, marking a historic moment in the country’s political landscape.
Notably, this election presents a milestone as both leading presidential candidates are women: former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and former senator Xóchitl Gálvez. The ballots will also include votes to fill over 20,000 public positions, underscoring the breadth and significance of this electoral event in shaping Mexico’s future trajectory. As Latin America prepares to embark on these crucial democratic exercises, the outcomes will undoubtedly influence regional dynamics and have lasting implications for the continent’s political landscape.
The United Kingdom braces for a significant electoral showdown as local elections on May 2 set the stage for a potential shift in political dynamics ahead of the next general elections. These local and mayoral elections in England and Wales will determine the leadership of key cities, including London, Birmingham and Manchester, impacting the governance of these urban centres. With a population of 67.9 million, the UK awaits Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision on the timing of the next general elections, anticipated to occur “in the second half” of the year, although a specific date remains undisclosed.
Amid rising discontent over the cost of living crisis and other grievances, polling data suggests a potential shift in power from the ruling Conservative Tory Party, which has held sway in UK politics since 2010, to the Labour Party. As voters gear up to participate in the upcoming elections, these local contests serve as a pivotal gauge of public sentiment and party standing, providing valuable insights into the shifting political landscape of the UK. They not only reflect the current mood of the electorate but also establish the groundwork for future electoral dynamics and strategic manoeuvring among political factions.
The upcoming election in South Africa holds significant importance, being touted as the country’s most crucial electoral event in the past three decades. Since the historic end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has maintained governance, with Nelson Mandela becoming the nation’s first Black president. However, amid growing uncertainty, questions arise about the ANC’s ability to retain its majority in this election. According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, over 26 million South Africans are registered to vote, underscoring the magnitude of participation expected in shaping the nation’s political landscape.
In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame, who played a pivotal role in leading the country out of the genocide, has remained a dominant figure, steering the nation’s course with significant influence. As he seeks a fourth term in the upcoming July 15 election, the population of 13.78 million awaits the outcome. Kagame has previously secured victory in three elections, each time garnering over 90 percent of the vote, cementing his position as a formidable political force in Rwanda.
Ukraine has been grappling with a profound crisis since February 2022, marked by a comprehensive Russian invasion that has resulted in the occupation of its eastern territories. This conflict has prompted the declaration of martial law in Ukraine, temporarily halting electoral processes. Against this backdrop, the term of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who assumed office in 2019, officially concluded in March, leaving the country in a state of uncertainty as it navigates through the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict and political transition.
Chad is gearing up for its presidential and legislative elections, anticipated to take place between October and November. However, there are widespread concerns that these elections will be tightly controlled to secure the continued rule of General Mahamat Déby, who assumed power in April 2021 following a military coup triggered by the death of his father, President Idriss Déby. President Idriss Déby had himself seized power in a coup three decades earlier, marking a dynastic transition of power in the country’s leadership.
Tunisia, once hailed as a beacon of democracy in Africa, has witnessed a significant erosion of democratic governance in recent years. Following President Kaïs Saïed’s dissolution of Parliament in 2021 and his subsequent rule by decree, many observers have characterised these actions as an auto-coup, marking a troubling dismantling of democratic institutions by an elected leader. Against this backdrop, Tunisia is preparing for its presidential election scheduled for November 24, amid concerns about the state of democracy and governance in the country.
Namibia is gearing up for one of the most anticipated elections on the African continent, slated to occur in November. With the conclusion of President Hage Geingob’s second and final constitutionally mandated term, the country will embark on the process of electing a new president. This election holds significant implications for the future trajectory of Namibia and will be closely watched both domestically and internationally.
Ghana is poised for a pivotal moment as it prepares for its presidential elections scheduled for December 7. With President Nana Akufo-Addo stepping down after completing his second term in office, the nation is set to witness a historic transition of power. This election will not only determine Ghana’s next leader but also signify the country’s fifth presidential succession since the restoration of democratic multiparty politics in 1992.
Guinea-Bissau braces for another round of elections in December amid a backdrop of political turbulence. The West African coastal nation, with a population of 2 million, finds itself in a familiar cycle of instability, having navigated from one crisis to another in recent years.
Mali’s military junta, despite assurances, postponed the scheduled February 4 election aimed at restoring civilian democratic governance. However, the date was indefinitely postponed in September 2023, citing “technical reasons,” leaving the future of democratic transition uncertain.
In Burkina Faso, elections aimed at reinstating a democratic civilian government, scheduled for July 2024, were deemed “not a priority” by the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré in September 2023, resulting in their indefinite postponement.
Other countries
Algeria, with a population of 46 million, is anticipating elections in December; Uzbekistan, with a population of 35.4 million, is poised for elections in October; Mozambique, with a population of 34.4 million, is set to hold Presidential and Assembly of the Republic elections on October 9, while Madagascar, with a population of 30.7 million, is preparing for National Assembly elections in May.
Austria’s National Council election is scheduled for September 29, with a population of 9.0 million; Slovakia, with a population of 5.7 million, is yet to decide on the date for the Presidential election for this year; Mauritania’s election will take place on June 22, with a population of 4.9 million, while Panama’s Presidential and National Assembly elections will be decided by a population of 4.5 million people on May 5.
Georgia’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 26, while the date for the presidential election is yet to be decided; Mongolia’s election is expected to take place in June, with a population of 3.5 million; Lithuania, with a population of 2.7 million, will hold presidential elections on May 12 and parliamentary elections on October 13. Meanwhile, Namibia, with a population of 2.6 million, is also yet to decide on the dates for the Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Elections conducted this year
Indonesia’s electoral commission has officially declared Prabowo Subianto as the president-elect in a formal ceremony, following the rejection of challenges to his victory by rival candidates by the country’s highest court. Prabowo, aged 72 and a former general with a history of allegations regarding human rights abuses, secured a landslide victory in February’s elections. However, his two opponents contested the results, alleging that the integrity of the vote had been compromised due to state interference and unfair rule changes.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth term in office in an election that saw the boycott of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the country’s primary opposition party. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, voters granted the ruling Democratic Progressive Party an unprecedented third consecutive term, electing pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te as the island nation’s next president on January 13th.
In Croatia’s April 17 election, a far-right party emerged as a potential kingmaker as the governing conservatives fell short of securing enough seats to form a new government. In South Korea, the legislative elections on April 10, 2024, saw the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) win 175 seats, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) secured 108 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly. These election results provided the DPK with an opportunity to counterbalance the legislative power of the incumbent government.
In Slovakia, nationalist-left government candidate Peter Pellegrini emerged victorious in the presidential election held between March 23 and April 6. This outcome further solidified the influence of pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico over the country. Fico, who assumed power for the fourth time in October, has steered Slovakia’s foreign policy towards more pro-Russian stances and has initiated reforms in criminal law and the media, sparking concerns about the erosion of the rule of law. Pellegrini secured 53.26% of the vote, while his pro-Western opposition counterpart, Ivan Korcok, garnered 46.73%, according to results from 99.66% of voting districts. Although Slovak presidents possess limited executive powers, they can veto laws or contest them in the constitutional court.
In Senegal, opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye emerged victorious in the March 24 presidential election, securing 54.28% of the votes. Notably, Faye’s win came just 10 days after his release from jail. Former President Macky Sall extended congratulations to Faye, hailing his victory as “a triumph for Senegalese democracy.” At 44 years old, Faye assumes the presidency as Senegal’s youngest leader, marking a significant milestone given his lack of prior experience in holding a national elective office.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin secured his fifth term as president in the March 17 election, with little doubt surrounding his victory, especially after the demise of prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny in an Arctic Circle prison. This election carried heightened significance as the first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s victory was virtually assured, facing only three other candidates who were all endorsed by the Kremlin. He clinched over 87% of the vote, positioning himself for another term at the helm. Putin lauded Russia’s democracy as more transparent than many Western counterparts, underscoring the outcome as a testament to the nation’s electoral process.
Iran witnessed its lowest electoral turnout since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 during the parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1. With only 25 million out of 61 million eligible voters participating, officials depicted the voter turnout as a triumph against the nation’s perceived adversaries. Despite the diminished participation, the election outcome signified a significant moment in Iran’s political landscape, reflecting the populace’s engagement with the democratic process amidst various internal and external challenges.
Following a contentious election in Pakistan, legislators elected Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s Prime Minister for a second term. The electoral process, held on February 8, was overshadowed by allegations of widespread rigging and delayed results, casting a shadow over the legitimacy of the outcome. Despite these challenges, Sharif’s re-election marks a pivotal moment in Pakistan’s political landscape, highlighting ongoing debates surrounding electoral integrity and democratic governance in the South Asian nation.
“Mega election 2024,” says UN
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, described this year as a ‘mega election year,’ emphasising its significance as a landmark for democracy. In a statement, Türk expressed optimism that most of the elections would likely be conducted with “free of hatred” and respect for the will of the people. This sentiment underscores the importance of upholding democratic principles and ensuring that elections serve as a vehicle for expressing the collective voice of the populace.
“Every election even an imperfect one constitutes an effort to at least formally acknowledge the universal aspiration to democracy,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said, before citing “serious concerns” about polls in several countries. Speaking on Chad, he highlighted with concern the killing of opposition leader Yaya Dillo in the country’s capital, N’Djamena, in February.
“I call for a transparent, timely, and independent investigation and for Chad’s transition ahead of upcoming elections to respect fully, international human rights law,” he added. In the United States, Türk noted that efforts to ensure free and fair elections were underway, despite curbs on postal votes reportedly introduced in 18 states after the 2020 presidential election and expanded in 22 following concerns about voter fraud. The High Commissioner added that equal rights and the value of every citizen’s vote needed to be emphasised, particularly in a context of intense political polarisation.
He also said the Indian election will be unique in scale as he expressed concern about restrictions and discrimination against minorities. “In India, with an electorate of 960 million people, the coming election will be unique in scale. There are concerns about restrictions on civic space, hate speech and discrimination against minorities, especially Muslims.”
The Ford Foundation civil society partners, with support from the Ford Foundation, have convened a pivotal meeting organised by Spaces for Change to address the pressing issue of Host Community Development Trusts (HCDTs) implementation in Nigeria.
Bringing together a diverse assembly of stakeholders, including Legislators, representatives from civil society organizations (CSOs), traditional councils, host communities, regulatory bodies, and oil & gas companies, the event served as a platform for robust dialogue and collaborative problem-solving. Participants highlighted the potential of HCDTs, introduced in Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), as channels for directing benefits to communities where oil and gas extraction occurs.
They noted that HCDTs offer greater advantages to host communities compared to earlier models such as the Global Memoranda of Understanding (GMOUs) However, stakeholders voiced concerns about various aspects of the implementation process of the HCDTs, including flawed selection processes for Boards of Trustees, ambiguity surrounding the allocation of the 3% OpEx, power imbalances between corporations and host communities, lack of environmental accountability during divestment, and the absence of independent monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.
HRM King Dr. Baridam Suani T.Y, of the Ogoni Traditional Council, underscored the urgent need for environmental accountability in the implementation of HCDTs, stating, “Diversification without environmental accountability is a dangerous activity… Operators should think of the environment first, and take care of liabilities before leaving the HC permanently.”
The meeting emphasized the critical role of various actors in ensuring the successful implementation of HCDTs. CSOs were lauded for providing capacity building, raising awareness, and advocating for community rights. Traditional councils were recognized for representing community interests and ensuring transparency.
Host communities were encouraged to engage actively in the HCDT process and hold companies accountable. Regulatory bodies were acknowledged for overseeing compliance, resolving disputes, and managing Decommissioning and Abandonment Funds for environmental remediation. The participants commended the Ford Foundation for providing resources, supporting capacity building, and connecting local conversations to global discussions on natural resource governance.
Dr. Chichi Aniagolu-Okoye, Regional Director of Ford Foundation West Africa, assured grantees of the foundation’s commitment to natural resource and climate change initiatives through the provision of funding for the next five years for civil society actors in these focus areas. Martin Abregu, Vice President of International Programs at the Ford Foundation, commended grantees for their key interventions aimed at improving democracy and the extractive sector.
“It is encouraging to see different players sitting around the table to have conversations about interventions in areas of climate change, community rights, community engagement, and community participation to ensure that we build long-term consensus on the kind of development we need for the future”, he mentioned.
The meeting concluded with a renewed commitment from all stakeholders to work collaboratively towards the effective implementation of HCDTs in Nigeria while the Ford Foundation emphasized its continued support for this process and its dedication to connecting local efforts with global conversations on resource governance and climate change.
Speakers addressed the importance of democracy and the concerning authoritarian trends in the country.
Programme Manager of FRAME Democracy, Mahmud Jafar, highlighted various authoritarian trends in Nigeria.
These include corruption, restricted civil liberties, state surveillance, media control, limited rule of law, and the rise of personality cults.
Specific cases such as Chioma Okoli, Rhoda Jatau, Aminu Adamu, and the disappearance of government critic Dadiyata underscored the challenges facing Nigeria’s democracy, he noted.
“The rising authoritarian trends in Nigeria are problematic and undermine our democracy, contributing to political apathy among youths,” Jafar said.
According to him, FRAME Democracy aims to instil the concept of democracy in the minds of young people and provide them with the tools and resources to become fully engaged democratic citizens.
The forum, attended by nearly 200 youths, mainly from LASU, featured keynote speeches from notable figures.
Journalist and filmmaker Kiki Mordi stressed the importance of digital rights in a democratic society.
“If we can assemble here freely, we should enjoy the same rights online as human rights extend to the digital space,” said Mordi.
She highlighted the unjust arrest of Chioma Okoli for a social media post criticising a tomato puree and noted that digital rights are essential for social justice and equality.
Professor of History and International Relations, Jamiu Oluwatoki, in a presentation entitled: “Is Nigeria a functional democracy or becoming an authoritarian state?” emphasised the need for a “home-grown” democracy promoted within families, schools, and government institutions.
“The future of Nigeria’s democracy rests on our youth. They must be informed, educated, and articulate to uphold true democracy,” Oluwatoki said.
According to him, Nigeria has inherent autocratic tendencies that continue to impede its journey towards becoming a fully democratic society.
“For almost a century, Nigeria endured a colonial system that aimed to exploit and suppress its people.
“The lack of a democratic foundation has left Nigeria ill-prepared for the challenges of governance after gaining independence.
“The country’s leaders, many of whom were moulded during the autocratic military rule, struggle to understand democratic principles and engage in undemocratic practices.
“The failures in Nigeria’s periodic, albeit flawed elections, only highlight these shortcomings,” he said
Oluwatoki noted that a significant proportion of the population lacks faith in “Project Nigeria.”
Saying the absence of belief in a common national identity undermines the collective effort to build a truly democratic society, he said building this belief requires a transformation in the system and instilling patriotism and civic responsibility at a young age, starting from homes, schools, churches, and mosques.
“Autocratic tendencies persist because people fail to question their leaders and demand accountability.
“Blaming leaders alone is not productive; followers must also take responsibility for their society’s democratic progress.
“Political leaders who lack the necessary skills or desire to govern effectively fall back on autocratic practices to maintain control.
“What exacerbates this issue is the absence of a democratic mechanism to hold them accountable.
“The process of selecting leaders is flawed, allowing autocrats to thrive without any real checks and balances,” he noted.
Oluwatoki said despite all the challenges, there is hope for change as the advent of social media has given Nigerians a tool to question and challenge those in power.
The forum included a panel session, which explored democratic challenges and solutions for youth.
Panellists discussed strategies for holding government accountable, promoting civic engagement, and equipping students with essential democratic skills.
Jafar expressed plans for future forums across Nigeria to empower students and youths to identify and counter authoritarian trends through FRAME Democracy clubs.
