Political parties are warming up for the June 21 governorship election in Ekiti State. Their candidates are campaigning vigorously across the 16 local governments. Sulaiman Salawudeen highlights the issues that will shape the poll in the Fountain of Knowledge.
The die is cast in Ekiti State. On June 21, the governorship election will hold in 16 local government areas. The candidates are boasting that they are going to win with a wide margin. But, it is only when the results are announced that the boys would be separated from the men.
Three weeks to the election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) counterparts; Mr. Ayo Fayose and Hon. Opeyemi Bamidele; are campaigning vigorously to gain an upperhand. Out of 18 parties, only the APC, the PDP and the LP passed the certification test by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The assessment was based on many factors including, financial muscle, the spread and popularity of the parties and their campaign strategies.
The open air campaigns, which started about two months ago, may not necessarily determine who emerges as the governor at the end of the day. According to observers, more fundamental is the strength of the parties. This observers say, would be complemented by the campaigns.
The parties appear to be leveraging on the partisan campaigns to beat the INEC directive, which stipulates that open air campaigns must end by 6p.m. This is because there is no limit to the period that any of the candidates or their accredited representatives could call at the residence of anyone for consultations and ralllies.
In spite of the violence that has characterised the campaigns, the major contenders are banking on the promise that votes would count. Therefore, the campaigns have gradually into the door-to-door and person-on-person mode to woo voters.
Many rallies and campains have been held in the past weeks. There have been numerous ‘cross-carpeting’, as splinter groups across the parties switch loyalty.
It was the LP that set the pace by admitting members of the APC into its fold. The PDP, on the other hand, has been reconciling members, following its rancorous primaries. As the campaign progressed, the focus shifted to the ruling APC. Everyone was eager to see the party’s joker. Four weeks ago, former Governor Segun Oni disclosed that he would team up with the APC candidate to sustain the development pace in Ekiti State. Alhough the three contenders had promised to restrict their campaigns to issues, the fear that violence may mar the poll has continued to disturb major stakeholders. This has compelled the police and traditional rulers to broker peace among the parties. Now, the situation may have been brought under control as the candidates have vowed to deal with overzealous supporters crying more than the bereaved.
There is a sensational adulation of Fayose by some spectators at campaigns more circumspect segment queue behind Fayemi, based on a number of factors. Pundits rank Bamidele third, behind Fayemi and Fayose. Though the PDP and the LP candidates have assured their supporters that they would win the election, many are of the view that it was a show of bravado. The critical success factors include the public rating of the incumbent, party structures, membership drive and established voting patterns.
Incumbency factor
So far, the public assessment of Fayemi has been favourable. Today, Ekiti people cutting across the academia and other professions have rated the governor high on performance. They are openly supporting him based, on excellent performance.
To them, Fayemi’s Eight Point Agenda has revealed the test of leadership. The governor has performed in critical sectors, including infrastructure, education, health, agriculture, empowerment/employment, tourism.
Professor Ladipo Adamolekun, explained that “Fayemi’s performance in governance has ranked him well in the class of achievers in the mould of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo.”
Afenifere leaders, after visting the project sites, described Fayemi’s performance in superlative terms. They were among the 50 different groups and individuals, who have endorsed the governor for another term and volunteered to campaign for him. On the contrary, it is believed that, if Fayemi had done poorly in governance, the assessment would also have reflected such and have affected his public rating.
According to observers, no town or community in the 17-year-old state is shortchanged in the distribution physical projects and political appointments. Monarchs are carried along through their involvement in the state-sponsored Community Self Help Project.
Party organisation
According to observers, the APC is the best organised party in Ekiti State. The party has also promoted internal democracy. This is evident in the selection of its candidate for the June 21 poll and its membership drive. To such observers, this attribute has contributed to the coherence and unity of purpose in the fold.
The APC has updated its membership records and mobilised it members to obtain permanent voter cards. According to one of the observers: “What the APC has done is more than enough, but they are not taking any chances. It is the only party, which has no faction in whatever guise and therefore, no ‘disgruntled elements’. It is also the only party that promoted an open drive for members, at the end of which it netted 326,000 members.
“It took the lead in the commencement of open air campaigns. It has gone round the state two times and still not relenting. The party has also conducted two successful mega rallies, bringing together members across the 16 councils.
“But, the PDP can be regarded only to the contrary, having shown far less seriousness and brothely love among themselves. No observable membership drive and no intra-party coherence. Although it claims its membership base is over 300,000, it was just one haphazard fixture backed neither by moves nor evidence.” While the APC held its primaries without any rancour and chose its candidate’s running mate in an atmosphere of peace, the PDP, is perceived as moving from one confusion to another.
The PDP primaries was a failure.
It was marred by irregularities, which further exacerbated the already strained intra-party relations. Fayose is seen essentially as an unfaithful interloper in the PDP brought to satisfy the party leadership, a leadership which does not connect with certain realities in the organisation of the party. Owing to the way Fayose emerged, many PDP members have dumped the party for other parties, especially the APC while some “have decided to remain and work against Fayose”.
Also, instead of using the opportunity of choosing the running mate to assuage feelings and launder the party’s image, Fayose’s choice of Dr. Olubunmi Olusola from Ikere Ekiti, instead of Dr. Dare Bejide, one of those aggrieved by the outcome of the primaries, has not helped matters. The aggrieved aspirants are now spoiling for war, not only with Fayose, but the national leadsership of the party for breaching the agreement with them. They have consequently threatened to call it quits with the party. The collapse of a podium in Ifaki-Ekiti while Fayose and whole legion others were campaigning has been described as a bad omen.
According to observers, the creation by Fayemi of a separate campaign outfit to take care of strategies and operations is further affirmation that the APC operates on ‘hard reason and logic’, rather than on “emotions”. This, according to analysts, is unlike the PDP and the LP, where campaign organisations exist only in name, while all arrangements and strategies, including the branding of vests and other outfits and printing of posters and pamphlets, revolve around the candidates.
Membership drive
The APC and the PDP have roots in all the 177 wards and 2,195 polling units in the state and recent campaign efforts have further complemented the fortunes of the parties.
The PDP, which was been disorderly initially, has had a better showing lately, especially after the emergence of Fayose who, in a way, has been able to oil the party machinery. Even, the LP candidate, using his position as a member of the National Assembly, has reached out to most wards, especially those in Ekiti Central.
But, the APC seems to be ahead, in terms of the communities networking effort, using the projects Fayemi has executed across the 132 towns. The success of the social security scheme in which 25,000 elderly citizens get N5,000 monthly, has bolstered the governor’s campaign efforts in many ways. Further, the fact that all three senators representing Ekiti, five out of six House of Representatives members and 25 out of 26 state assembly members belong to the APC is equally a boost for Governor Fayemi’s re-election campaign effort.
Also in the party’s favour is the established voting patterns across zones. The swing communities of Ado-Ekiti, Ikere-Ekiti and Ido/Osi seem to be tilted towards the incumbent governor.
Ekiti South
Ekiti South has been the stronghold of the APC, since Fayemi came on board. In the last presidential election, Southwest states voted for President Goodluck Jonathan.
President Jonathan in 2011 won only in Ekiti North and Central, but not in the South, suggesting that the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now APC has a massive support in that zone. Senator Lawrence Agunbiade, and former Ondo State governor, Evangelist Bamidele Olumilua, the federal lawmaker, Ife Arowosoge, Bamidele Faparusi, are few of the formidable political players from the zone.
But, the highest vote from the zone is always from Ikere, being the second most populated town in Ekiti. However, the town has always been voting for opposition. For instance, in the 2003 governorship election, Ikere voted for former Governor Fayose against Adebayo. In 2007, when Fayemi contested againt Segun Oni, Fayemi won in the town. However, given the fact that the town has enjoyed a lot of developmental projects and political appointments from the current administration, Fayemi has a big following in the town.
Ekiti North
Ekiti North, the base of the governor, also parades high-ranking politicians and government officials that can swing the votes in favcour of Fayemi. Among them are Segun Oni from Ido-Osi; Babatunde Odetola, another strong party member from Ido-Osi; the Head of Servive (HOS), Mr. Olubunmi Famosaya, from Oye; Secretary to Government, Alhaji Ganiyu Owolabi, from Oye; Kayode Fayemi Campaign Organisation’s Director General, Bimbo Daramola from Oye; and a PDP stalwart, Mr. Ben Ogun-tunase, from Ikole.
Chief Paul Alabi, another PDP chieftain and former deputy governor are believed to be supporting Fayemi. The PDP is particularly disadvantaged in this regard, as no high-ranking government official at the federal level is from the zone.
The Ido/Osi local government has been the enclave of the PDP since 1999. former Governor Oni, former ambassador and education minister, Prof. Tunde Adeniran and former Aviation Minister, Prof. Babalola Abori-shade are from the area.
After Fayemi had assumed office, the PDP still proved its dominance by winning a seat in the House of Assembly. Hon. Bunmi Oriniowo, who recently decamped into the APC alongside his political father, Oni, emerged despite the incumbency power of the defunct ACN.
Now, Oni is a chieftain of the APC. His foot soldiers; Taiwo Olatunbosun, Kayode Babade and Ben Oguntunase, have not been playing any critical role in the PDP. It was even gathered that they were among the lot who opposed the emergence of Fayose as the party’s flag bearer.
When former Vice President Atiku Abubaka was about to defect to the APC, Borishade played very significant role in the deal, which means that he would work for Fayemi. Analysts have predicted a resounding victory for the APC in Ido-Osi and the Northern axis.
Ekiti Central
Ekiti Central is the most difficult zone. It is the home of Bamidele, Fayose and Fayemi’s running mate, Prof. Modupe Adelabu. In 2003 and 2007, Ado, like Ikere, voted for the opposition party. But, this had resulted from the irreconcilable differences between the incumbent and the people of the town. In 2003, they accused Adebayo of not developing the town to a befitting status 2007, they accused Fayose of opposing the town’s monarch.
The Ewi of Ado, has openly supported Fayemi for a second term in office. He is pushing for his success. Ewi’s support not unconnected with Fayemi’s urban renewal programmes which is believed to have elevated the capital into a modern city.
The swing communities of Ado-Ekiti, Ikere-Ekiti and Ido/Osi, the APC maintains a clear lead. Ido Osi, from the analysis, is a clear axis of strategy and possible tragedy. Fayemi’s is backed by Oni who is popular in this area. Although the PDP has dismissed Oni as “a mere paper tiger,” towns people hold him in high esteem.
Rigging
There are challenges for the APC.
While the party’s performance has been responsible for its popularity and acceptability among the enlightened segments, including teachers, lecturers, lawyers, civil/public servants, doctors, nurses, the market men and women, it has also been strangely responsible for its alienation from other segments, including commercial motorcycle riders and others whose understanding of responsible governance is nill.
The PDP, has launched attacks from the rear, bolstered by opportunistic recourse to the initial strained relationship the administration and teachers, following upon the insistence on the Teachers’ Development Needs Assessment (TDNA) test, the promotion examination and staff audit, which led to the sack of some senior workers across the 16 councils.
But, Fayemi may have doused the tension through recent meetings with both groups which, according to sources, “have started yielding results. Some officials of the teachers’ and council workers’ unions even clarified in a meeting: “They often say a known devil is better than an unknown saint. But given this ‘fight’ (the June 21 election) between Fayemi and Fayose, it is just a case of a difficult saint against a well known devil. We have made decisions, based on what we know about the two candidates and our members will act wisely.”
To further nullify the effects of the strained relationships with teachers, Fayemi recently announced the cancellation of the TDNA and approved the payment of 27.5 per cent Teachers’ Pecuniary Allowance, for teachers since his administration came on board.
Fear of rigging
Although, the APC leadership has continued to allay fears about so-called federal might for the PDP candidate, analysts maintain that the possibility of rigging ‘is high. The Anambra State poll was bungled.
While the INEC has allayed fears about rigging the decision of President Goodluck Jonathan to foist a candidate believed to be unpopular on the Ekiti PDP has not doused the anxiety. There are two issues, will the police protect the votes.Will INEC prevent rigging? June 21 will tell.
