By Abdulkabir Muhammed
History has proven that the world is not static just as nature abhors a vacuum. The shift in the balance of power has evolved different epochal characteristics that are spurred by situational realities. After vivid examination of the rise and fall of global empires, historians and international relations experts, such as John Bagot Glubb, have concluded that empires survive an average of 250 years before collapsing and giving way to another empire.
From the Dutch Empire in the 1600s to the Pax Britannica in the 1800s, and the Pax Americana which began after the Great War, the world is set for another order. The shift, this time, is channelled toward the East, which is pushing for a multilateral system—some even argue that we are in a multipolar world already. The emerging world is driven by scientific advancements, digital technology, military strength, economic buoyancy, international trade, education etc.
Nigeria, as well as many other African states, does not seem to be active in this changing world order because it fails to live up to the above elements.
Nigeria seemed to have taken a revolutionary step, upon gaining Independence in 1960, when its first and only prime minister, Tafawa Balewa declared that Nigeria would be non-aligned in the struggle between the Western capitalist and Eastern communist blocs—known as the Cold War. However, that is not enough for a country to be an actor in this changing world. The discovery of oil in the years preceding independence and the oil boom of the 1970s placed Nigeria in the limelight of world affairs, playing significant roles both at the regional and supranational levels, hence, the appellation, “Giant of Africa.” However, the 21st century has demonstrated to the world that although natural resources, population, participation in international peacekeeping, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are criteria of a great country, they are not as important as science and technology, sophisticated military and buoyant economy. Nigeria is marginalised from the changing world due to its floating economic growth and development, slow technological pace, lack of equipped military, lack of quality education, and issues of a floating currency.
Nigeria needs to improve its technology pace to be able to play a prominent role in the changing world. It is no more news that the 21st century is driven by technology which cuts across all strata. Lack of technological advancement in the economic, military and educational sectors is a bane of Nigeria’s role in this changing world. Nigeria was ranked the 13th most innovative country in Africa and 109th in the world by the Global Innovation Index in November 2023. This depicts how much the country is lagging in technology. In the agricultural sector, for example, crude implements dominate the production process, thereby forestalling substantial output. Agriculturalists have low access to modern implements to carry out production. The infrastructural deficit reflects on Nigeria’s transportation system which has not properly utilised technology.
Therefore, aside from the devastating effects that infrastructural deficit causes by scaring away investors, it has also accounted for the low productivity in agriculture. Although agriculture contributes 35 per cent to the country’s GDP, that is much lower, argued Ambassador Samuela Isopi, than its potential. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s health sector is not spared from the shackles of this infrastructural deficit.
Additionally, insecurity poses a major challenge to Nigeria’s survival in the contemporary world. As of 2023, Nigeria was the 15th most fragile state in the world, according to the 2023 Fragile States Index. Non-state actors such as Boko Haram, ISIS, and ISWAP have been terrorizing the country, attacking the “food baskets” of Nigeria. Farmers-herders imbroglio further contributed to Nigeria’s economic dilemma as the country keeps importing most of the foods it produces as a result of food insecurity. As imports usurps exports, the Naira struggles under perpetual siege. Yet, the mainstay of Nigeria’s revenue—the oil—has continued to suffer from pipeline vandalism and thefts. Unfortunately, such a country as Nigeria, which is prone to terrorist organisations, finds it difficult to attract foreign investors. Besides, local investors are not safe in the hands of armed robbers and ransom kidnappers.
Industrialization is very low compared to the developed world. Nigeria’s enormous resources seem to be contributing less to her development as these resources have to be transported to the industrialized world to be transformed into usable goods. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and other top oil-producing states are benefitting hugely from oil because the entire production of the crude into finished products is carried out from within. Nigeria, on the other hand, imports premium motor spirit because the country’s refineries are “inoperable.” Yet, where there seem to be attempts from the private sector, such as the Dangote Refinery, to buffer the cost of transporting the oil products and avert petro-piracy, there have been allegations over “stakeholders” sabotaging the indigenous refinery! This begs the question of corruption and the political will of the Nigerian leaders.
There is also a lack of utilisation of natural resources. Aside from crude oil, industrial resources like natural gas, coal, iron ore, lead etc., have not effectively been utilised to ignite industrialisation in Nigeria. Moreover, the issue of epileptic power supply is a hydra-headed monster that obstructs the functioning of Nigerian industries and the productiveness of the private sector.
Furthermore, despite the human capacity of the Nigerian Army and other defence agencies, the military, especially, lacks substantial equipment to play its role of territorial defence. In a 2022 military ranking by Global Fire Power (GFP), the Nigerian military was ranked third on the continent and 35th globally. This was in contrast with the 2024 global ranking which placed Nigeria in the 39th position, globally! In this nuclear age, where military power and victory in war are no longer defined by physical might or large armies, one critical element of a country’s military power is possessing nuclear bombs. Nigeria possesses no nuclear weapon or weapons of mass destruction (WMD) which could serve as a deterrence and bargaining factor in its international relations!
Aside from the United States which had deployed nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, none of the states that possess nuclear weapons has deployed it in warfare. Iran and a host of countries have been building their nuclear capacity not to exterminate the whole universe, but to maintain deterrence.
Finally, the lack of quality education portends a great risk for Nigeria in this changing world. Admittedly, educational standards have diminished all over the world, but Nigeria’s case is alarming. The lack of technological infrastructures hampers educational excellence. The lack of a conducive environment and study materials for students accounted for the low output in the educational sector. Unequipped laboratories, poor connectivity and research institutes affect quality research and innovations in academia. As a result, there is a surge in the number of Nigerian students and academics abroad who have fled the country for educational purposes. As more and more students travel abroad, it has a dilapidating effect on the Nigerian currency.
How Nigeria can utilise its potentials in this changing world order
With a population advantage of over 200 million, Nigeria, like China and India, has the potential of an actor and not just a factor in the changing world, if properly utilised. The government should maximise the brains in the country while improving its technological initiatives. Technocrats should be made to head critical positions. The government must realise the effects of the brain drain accrued from the surge of emigration of medical practitioners and academics. Inducements in the form of emoluments and allowances should be given to necessary civil servants to accelerate productivity. More importantly, Nigerian scientists and technologists should be equipped with the necessary training and financing required to carry out inventions. Nigeria should collaborate with scientific powers to train local scientists to produce local sophisticated weapons thereby reducing the government’s spending in procuring weapons from overseas.
Furthermore, Nigerian citizens should be sensitized to what has been termed “citizen diplomacy”, which connotes that every Nigerian has a role in portraying Nigeria’s image abroad. In many cases where Nigerians perpetrate one crime or the other, paint a bad image of Nigeria. If properly utilised, the large Nigerian diaspora communities can play, in their respective host countries, the roles that the Jewish Community plays in the United States, thereby commanding global powers’ alliance.
Nigeria can leverage its arable land for the production of substantial agricultural products for export, to increase its revenue, as well as strengthen its currency through foreign trade. Technological aids should be given to farmers to facilitate robust production. In this evolving multilateral world, membership in international organizations such as BRICS, will help Nigeria strengthen her economy by trading in her currency among many other nations. Above all, issues of corruption and political will must be addressed to have an effective restructuring of Nigeria’s governance and, by extension, international relations.
•Muhammed from Lagos State University, Ojo writes via abdulkabirm87@gmail.com
