- Nigeria records significant drop in petrol imports
The global crude oil market continues its turbulent descent, driven largely by the unpredictable tariff regime of former United States (U.S) President Donald Trump, with rippling effects now hammering Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Speaking at the State House yesterday during the Meet-the-Press series organised by the Presidential Media Team, NMDPRA Chief Executive Officer Farouk Ahmed warned that the U.S’ trade policy under Trump—marked by erratic tariff announcements and reversals—is destabilising oil markets and complicating investment planning.
He cited recent price drops, including a sharp fall from $74 to $60 per barrel in a single day, as detrimental to Nigeria’s fiscal stability.
He notes that the drive could have ripple effects for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria, which rely heavily on crude exports for revenue and foreign exchange inflows.
Nigeria, which exports nearly 90per cent of its crude oil, is particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations driven by external shocks.
The 2025 budget was benchmarked on a projected oil price of $74 per barrel, meaning the country could face revenue shortfalls if prices drop significantly below that mark.
With oil contributing significantly to national revenue, such volatility, combined with domestic challenges like pipeline vandalism and oil theft, poses a serious threat to the economy.
“The oil industry generally is a bit dynamic, in the sense that the pricing, the demand, supply of crude oil and petroleum products is no static. It all depends on the demand, region, areas, productions, whether it is gas or crude oil and derivatives.
“But recently, like we all know, the the global oil market, not only oil market, but the global economy, has been a bit volatile, in sense of the new American government’s policy of tariffing, not only targeted at China, but the whole countries across the world.”
“Most importantly, what is even destabilising the market is inconsistencies in the way President Trump also sends his policies; move today, tomorrow he reverses.
“So it’s been difficult to predict what the next step will… So for investors and traders in, not only oil and gas industry, but in general economy of the world, moving left and right, to the extent that some of them are actually doing like a daily straight, that means you do your trading today, you close by end of today, because you never know what tomorrow’s policy will drive the market into.
“So the crude oil and petrol products market continues to have like a downward trajectory because of these inconsistencies and policies of of the government of United States, and the key aspect of it is the aspiration of the American President to ensure that the crude oil price comes down to maybe below $50 a barrel and that’s why he encourages more exploration in his country,” he said.
This is coming as Nigeria has recorded a significant decline in the importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, as local refineries begin to play a more active role in meeting domestic fuel demand.
According to the Ahmed, the country’s petrol imports dropped from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to just 14.7 million litres per day by April 13, 2025 – a reduction of nearly 30 million litres daily.
The agency attributed the sharp decline to increased production from domestic refineries, particularly the gradual restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company and contributions from modular refinery operators.
Ahmed described the development as a positive shift toward energy self-sufficiency.
“After contributing virtually nothing in August, local refineries ramped up production to 26.2 million litres per day by early April. This marks a significant jump from just 3.4 million litres recorded in September – the first month with measurable output”, Ahmed said.
He noted that local supply rose by a remarkable 670 percent over the period under review, driven primarily by the resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt refinery and increased activity among modular refineries.
Despite the improvement, Ahmed pointed out that Nigeria’s total daily PMS supply surpassed the government’s benchmark consumption target of 50 million litres only twice in the past eight months—56 million litres in November 2024 and 52.3 million litres in February 2025.
“In March, supply slightly dipped below the target at 51.5 million litres per day, and in the first half of April, it further dropped to 40.9 million litres,” he added.
Ahmed also emphasized that the NMDPRA only issues import licenses based on actual supply needs, noting that the Authority remains committed to balancing domestic output with strategic imports to maintain market stability.
The significant drop in petrol imports is seen as a critical step toward reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign fuel, strengthening energy security, and conserving scarce foreign exchange.
“Obviously, we see a downward trajectory, like I said earlier, in terms of products pricing and crude oil pricing. So we are happy, of course, as consumers of the derivatives of pricing that the price is coming low.
“But we look at globally as a nation, it’s not good for our economy, because our revenue inflow is also impacted.
“If the crude oil price like what happened previous week, Fridays, where they dropped in one day from about $74, $73 a barrel to 60. You can see that in terms of our production of crude oil, our revenue is impacted severely.
“So you can look at the revenue inflow into the country were compounded with the problem of vandalism and illegal bunkering and the low protection.
“Then, if we lose the price to by $10, you can see the negative impact to our economy, to our national reserves, as well as across the strength of our naira.
“But again, when you look at the products market, we are happy to say, Oh, the price is coming down.
“So this volatility will continue, because as recent as yesterday, when President Trump again exempted some sectors from tariff, particularly to China, like in terms of vehicular tariffing, you saw the market again, started to go up. So this is how it will continue to show. Just to give you a general perspective of the oil industry,” Ahmed further explained.
On refining operations, he explained that six licensed private and four public refineries currently produce 1.12 million barresls per day.
Six licensed private plants account for 679,500 bpd of the total. The Dangote single train complex refines 650,000 bpd.
Other modular sites include Aradel (11,000 bpd), OPAC (10,000 bpd) and Waltersmith (5,000 bpd), Duport Midstream Limited (2,500 bpd) and Edo Refining and Petrochemicals Company Limited (1000 bpd).
State owned facilities add 445,000 bpd. The refurbished Port Harcourt complex (150,000 bpd), Warri (125,000 bpd), Kaduna (110,000 bpd) and the old Port Harcourt unit (60,000 bpd) make up the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s share.
The NMDPRA said it has issued 47 Licences to Establish covering 1.75 million bpd and 30 Licences to Construct for 1.23 million bpd. Only four plants currently hold Licenses to Operate, and these together have a 27,000 bpd in steady output.
Ahmed said five LTC projects with a combined capacity of 689,500 bpd are at the commissioning or construction stage, including Dangote with 650,000 bpsd. Smaller builds include AIPCC Energy’s 30,000 bpd plant and Waltersmith’s 5,000 bpd second train.
