The die, at last, is cast. Today’s governorship election in Ondo State promises to be a tough battle. As things stand at the moment, it is a three-horse race between Mr. Olusola Oke of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Mr. Eyitayo Jegede of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress (APC). In this report, Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI looks at the chances of the three main candidates.
Akure, the capital of Ondo State, has been in festive mood since the Court of Appeal ruling which on Wednesday reinstated Mr. Eyitayo Jegede as the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for today’s governorship election in the state. Up until Thursday, the last day allowed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for campaign, there were wild jubilations in Akure and its environs by long processions of supporters of the PDP candidate.
The development is understandable. Jegede is a native of Akure, and the entire Akure Division of the defunct Western Region is united in their bid to support the aspiration of their son as the next governor of the state. A similar atmosphere also prevailed in Ondo town where the incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko hails from.
The joy of the people of Ondo Central Senatorial District generally is an indication that the calculations for today’s election has changed indeed. Before Wednesday’s ruling, the calculations were that the election was going to be a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). The dispute over the PDP ticket was believed to have decimated the party’s chances as the candidacy of the party’s former flag bearer, Chief Jimoh Ibrahim, was widely perceived as a joke. However, observers believe that with the return of Jegede’s name on INEC’s list of candidates, the PDP also stands the chance of winning the election.
The dispute between Ibrahim, who is the candidate of the Ali Modu Sheriff-led faction, and Jegede, the preferred candidate of the Ahmed Makarfi-led faction, had preoccupied the two factions and prevented them from campaigning. With the latest development, however, the battle for Governor Mimiko’s seat has become a three-horse race.
Hope restored for Jegede
Like a home team that scored an equalizing goal late in a game of football, supporters of the PDP candidate appear determined to back him today at the polls. But the campaign of the other candidates had gathered momentum in the space of time that Ibrahim was recognised as the PDP flag bearer, and this may have dire consequences for Jegede. Against this background, the Jegede camp campaigned vigorously for postponement of the election.
In the mean time, Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu of the APC and Mr. Olusola Oke of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) have returned to the drawing board with the return of Jegede on INEC’s list of candidates. The initial exclusion of Jegede from the race had made Ondo Central a battleground for the two candidates.
With the latest turn of events, the PDP candidate will be looking to gain massive support from Ondo Central, which has the largest number of registered voters in the state. As the wild jubilations suggest, Akure North and Akure South indigenes are united by the ‘Akure Agenda’ and so will probably back Jegede in their numbers.
The PDP is also expected to do well in Ondo, owing to the influence of the governor. Thus, the party may dominate the ballot in Ondo East and Ondo West councils. Mimiko has ensured that the local government areas benefitted from some developmental projects.
However, the three parties AD, APC and PDP will lock horns in Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo. In Idanre/Ifedore Local Government Area, which is another stronghold of the PDP, Mimiko is popular. He has never lost any electoral battle there since 2007. In the last few weeks, the people had grown weary, thinking that the PDP had no acceptable candidate. Apathy was predicted by analysts. But Jegede’s reinstatement may have cleared the coast for the PDP in the local government area.
Odd against Jegede
While the ‘Akure Agenda’ may work in favour of Jegede in Ondo Central, Governor Mimiko’s truncation of the zoning arrangement may hurt the PDP candidate’s chances in the other zones, because it is in conflict with the party’s rotational principle. According to the zoning principle, the slot ought to belong to Ondo North even though some interest groups are insisting that it should go to the Ondo South senatorial district.
Incumbent Governor Mimiko, whose second term will expire in January next year, is from Ondo Kingdom in Ondo Central. Akure, which is now jostling for the slot, is also in the Central District. So, people from the other zones perceive the insistence on the ‘Akure Agenda’ as a discrimination against their zones and would naturally back candidates from their zone, irrespective of party affiliation. Besides, the temporary legal setback has taken a toll on the party. The PDP is trailing other parties in mobilisation and campaigns. No serious voter education was done by the party during the period of tribulation.
Oke’s popularity soars
At the beginning, Oke was not considered a frontline candidate and possible winner of the election. But with crises rocking the PDP and the APC, he emerged as the candidate to beat in today’s three-horse race involving his party, the APC and the PDP.
With the hullabaloo that greeted the APC’s September 3 primary, which was marred with allegations of fraud and the inability of the party’s leadership to resolve the issue amicably, the party is also going into the election as a divided house. The APC crisis is one of the factors working in the AD candidate’s favour. Though other major contenders, particularly Dr. Olusegun Abraham and Senator Ajayi Boroffice, elected to remain in the fold, the disagreement over the outcome of the primary has cast a long shadow on the campaign for the election.
With this state of affairs, all eyes are on the AD and its governorship candidate, to reap from the division in APC and PDP. Indeed, Oke’s candidacy appears to have injected live into the hitherto comatose party. Almost overnight, a party that had been comatose received a breath of life and its popularity has continued to soar by the day.
The Akoko region will be a major battleground for the candidates, particularly Oke and Akeredolu. Akeredolu is from Owo, which is part of Ondo North, and represents the best chance of the zone to occupy the Alagbaka Government House this time around. But proponents of power shift from Akoko may not buy into the quest of the APC candidate to govern the state, because he also represents the ‘Owo Agenda’.
There are a number of candidates from Akoko, but they are contesting on the platform of fringe parties and therefore do not stand much chance of making an appreciable impact in the race generally. The biggest of such candidates perhaps is Dr. Olu Agunloye, who is contesting on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). There is also Mr. Ola Amuda from Ogbagi-Akoko, in Akoko Northwest, who is contesting on the platform of the Accord Party (AP); and Mr. Bola Aidi from Akoko Northeast, who is flying the flag of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). They will get some votes in Akoko, but they do not seem to have what it takes to attract votes in other zones.
For the Akoko people, the Olusola Oke/Gani Dauda ticket on the platform of AD perhaps represents the region’s best chance for now. This is because the AD platform has become formidable since Oke joined the party after the controversial APC primary of September 3. Dauda is from Akoko Northwest. He is a grassroots politician and he has represented the constituency in the House of Representatives.
Since there was no reconciliation, following the disputed APC primary, aggrieved governorship aspirants within the party may not be inclined to mobilise their supporters to vote for its candidate. Abraham, who hails from the council, is still challenging Akeredolu’s victory at the primary. Abraham reportedly advised his supporters to vote their conscience: a statement interpreted as a subtle way of saying that he is not a bona fide supporter of Akeredolu’s aspiration.
Many community leaders are not happy with the APC, because, in their view, the Akoko aspirants were ‘edged’ out from the selection process to pave the way for an aspirant from Owo. So, based on that Oke has an edge over the APC candidate, as far as Akoko is concerned. Nevertheless, the presence of some party followers who cannot easily switch allegiance is a saving grace for Akeredolu.
In Ondo Central, the AD candidate also worked tirelessly to secure the support of segments of the electorate. A number of his lieutenants are from the zone. For instance, the Director-General of his campaign organisation, Mr. Bola Ilori, is from Ondo. There is also Otunba Omoniyi Omodara, a former Commissioner for Transport, who is from Akure North, and former Speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly, Mr. Kenneth Olawale, who is also from Akure North.
There is no doubt that Oke will sweep the polls in his constituency, Ondo South. Observers say Oke has what it takes to win the Ondo election. Such observers point to the fact that he has over 31 years of experience in politics and that he is a grassroots politician that has remained at home, unlike Akeredolu and Jegede. Akeredolu, they say, is based in Ibadan, while Jegede was based in Adamawa State before his emergence as a commissioner under Mimiko about seven and a half years ago.
When Oke joined the APC shortly after last year’s presidential election, he brought glamour to the party. He proved himself to be an astute politician. The legal practitioner did not come to the APC alone; he joined the fold with a galaxy of his political associates and many former top government functionaries. The political structure he built across the 18 local government areas during the 2012 election, when he flew the flag of the PDP, is still intact. With his humility and generosity, he has garnered more support from wards, local governments and at the state level.
In the course of this campaign, he has traversed the nooks and crannies of the state, trying to consolidate on the structure he built in 2012 and also break new grounds. Oke is believed to be one of the closest lieutenants of the late Governor Olusegun Agagu. Having paid his dues, he is seen as the most experienced of those contesting the position.
Oke is believed to be an astute and highly generous politician with a network across the three senatorial districts of the state and immense national recognition.
Against all odds, Oke came second, behind Governor Mimiko in the 2012 governorship election. This came at a time when the PDP was being treated like a leper in the state, coupled with the fact that the incumbent governor’s popularity was at its peak. He won in Ilaje-Ese Odo and Okitipupa local governments. This underscored his acceptability and deft political move.
The AD candidate said during Monday’s debate that he left the APC because it had not been able to meet its promises of fighting internal corruption in the party’s primary election. “I cannot be part of that deception,” he added. He said his mission was to create wealth by exploring the mineral and human resources, introduce transparency and create jobs.
Speaking on Oke, a former Commissioner for Transport, Otunba Omoniyi Omodara, who is an ardent supporter of the AD governorship candidate, said: “I have known Chief Oke for close to two decades now, specifically when I served as a commissioner under him, when he was the Chairman, OSOPADEC.”
According to him, during this period, Oke displayed rare exemplary leadership qualities. Omodara said: “Oke is a detribalised person, a team player, selfless and focused. He is the best for Ondo State at this particular time because he knows this state more than others.”
The former commissioner added: “Oke has lived with Ondo residents unlike the imported candidates and surrogates parading the streets as governorship candidates. He has been tested and found okay. In essence, Oke is okay”
But one of the odds facing the AD candidate is the Mimiko factor. With the return of Jegede’s name on INEC list, observers say the outgoing governor would do everything within his power to win the contest for his protege.
Akeredolu restrategises
For today’s governorship election, Akeredolu is expected to compete well, partiularly in his constituency. Unlike the 2012 poll, the people of Owo are more passionate about Akeredolu’s bid this time around. Many eminent indigenes are rooting for him because they see the election as a personal battle. Thus, he is expected to win in Owo.
The people of the neighbouring Ose Local Government Area have always voted for progressives in past elections and may still vote for the APC in this election.
Akeredolu also has fans in Akoko Southwest. Four years ago, he had an impressive showing there at the close of poll. His structure is solid in the council. His campaign director, Victor Olabimtan, has been combing up the area, selling his candidature. The influence of the PDP cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nevertheless, because the party has elected local government officials in the area.
Akeredolu and Oke have fanatical supporters in Akoko Southeast. But Oke got more votes than the APC candidate in the area in 2012. Besides, Oke may have an upper hand this time, because he picked his running mate from Akoko.
Before the APC primary, Akoko Northeast was the stronghold of the APC. Abraham hails from Ikare-Akoko, headquarters of the council. There is bitterness against the APC over the improper resolution of the primary’s crisis. If Abraham’s supporters team up with Oke, the APC may not be able to make an in-road.
In spite of the controversies surrounding his emergence as the governorship candidate of the APC, Akeredolu has not relented in his efforts to win today’s election. Some of his colleagues with whom he contested the governorship primary on September 3, 2016, alleged malpractices in the exercise and distanced themselves from the APC campaign activities.
The major odd against Akeredolu is his inability to reconcile with the major opponents in the controversial primary where he emerged as the party’s flag bearer. But, Akeredolu’s supporters are quick to add that other defeated aspirants are working for him. They include: Senator Tayo Alasoadura, Alhaji Jamiu Ekungba, Mrs Jumoke Anifowose, Dr Tunji Abayomi, Chief Victor Olabimtan, Prince Ademola Adegoroye and Olatunji Ariyomo.
For instance, Ariyomo, an engineer, is sure that Akeredolu would sail through today. He said: “Our candidate, Barrister Rotimi Akeredolu, is is the next governor of Ondo State. We have looked at the arithmetic and the dynamics of the 2016. The suffering masses, who are tired of career politicians, will vote for Akeredolu. And of the lot in the field, Akeredolu is the only one that can be described as truly independent.”
He said supporters of Akeredolu within and outside the state are his peers; people who believe in his capacity to deliver.
He added: “I must be frank, I don’t want another professional politician as governor of Ondo State. Professional politicians will smooth-talk you and rob you as we are presently experiencing in Ondo State.”
On why residents of Akure and Ondo Central District in general should cast their votes for Akeredolu, Ariyomo said the think-thank caucus within the APC has come up
with multi-billion dollar scheme mainly for Akure metropolitan area, with outposts to be fixed in Igbokoda, Okitipupa, Ore, Owo, Ondo and Ikare. He said: “But we can only implement this if we vote an APC governor on Saturday (today). We have embedded power generation systems planned for Akure metropolis to end years of epileptic power supply in all parts of Akure. “We can never achieve this under folks who prioritised investment of nearly N11 billion in the building of a fanciful event centre over electricity.
Neither can we ever achieve that under a governor whose psyche has been wired to see such as a federal government job,” he stated. According to observers, the biggest advantage Akeredolu has in this contest is the federal might that is backing him. President Muhammadu Buhari threw his weight behind the APC candidate last week Thursday, when he stormed Akure, the state capital, for the flag-off of the party’s campaign. Speaking at the mega rally, President Buhari pleaded with the people of Ondo to vote for the APC candidate, saying that the primary that produced Akeredolu as the APC flag bearer was transparent. He said: “I am very pleased that those of you who lost the primary are still very much in the party.
That you lose elections doesn’t mean you should walk away; you keep on trying. “I went to the Supreme Court three times in my bid to become the President of Nigeria. I like your high spirit and your commitment to the party, and I hope your constituencies are taking note of that.” The President was accompanied by the Senate President, Sen. Bukola Saraki; APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun and several APC governors and ministers. But, it remains to be seen how far the Federal Government’s backing will go in winning the election.
One thing that is certain is that the return of Jegede’s name on INEC’s list is bad news for the Akeredolu Campaign Organisation. With the development, the possibility of an alliance between Mimiko and the Akeredolu camp has been removed, and the APC now has less chance of winning in Ondo Central, which had been designated as a battleground between the APC and the AD. The Central senatorial district is expected to vote massively for the PDP candidate, who comes from the zone.
