Tag: ONDO

Last Wednesday, the national chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Mamman Mike Osuman, declared that the group would back northern candidates in the 2027 elections. Except the media reported him unfairly and inaccurately, he was ambiguous in approximating the northern socio-cultural group’s preferences. He referenced the Bola Tinubu administration’s unpopular policies and the hardship and hunger inundating the country, but he was careful not to specify names disfavoured by the ACF nor offices they might wish to contest. Though the Forum’s Board of Trustees suspended him a day later for making unathorised statement on behalf of the group, he had given dark hints about the direction the ACF might head some two years down the line. Said Mr Osuman, a lawyer and senior advocate, with flourish: “…It is not in doubt that the North is currently under siege. Our dear region is not only being viciously attacked by bandits, terrorists and kidnappers but also by sinister devices like disproportionate considerations and inequitable treatment.”

In the fortuitous months ahead, it is unlikely the old political North will see the Bola Tinubu presidency the same way they see it today. Apart from the president indulging the region beyond measure, it is also expected that the badly bruised and battered economy might begin to turn the corner. To that extent, the ACF’s BoT was probably sensible and more restrained in not declaring support for any aspirant or party. They may sometimes be instigative in their speeches, but they often wait to see which way the cat jumps before they cast their lot with a candidate. Nothing of course suggests they won’t eventually ditch President Tinubu, but they are unlikely to do so as spontaneously and peremptorily as Mr Osuman has ill-advisedly done. Sometimes too, the old North criticises and threatens as a form of pressure to get more concession from any presidency constituted by a southerner. Whatever their ultimate aim, the ACF chairman probably let the cat out of the bag too soon. He was unlikely to have voiced sentiments not prevalent among northern leaders, but it will still take more than a year before the old North’s definitive view on 2027 is known.

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The All Progressives Congress (APC) is probably aware of the electoral booby traps ahead of it, whether placed by northerners, or other regions, or even by enemies within. They may in fact already be toying with various countermeasures defeat the enemy and hold on to power beyond 2027. This is where their victories in the Edo and Ondo governorship elections put them in a quandary. If they had lost either or both states in the September and November polls, it would have been seen as a perfect and karmic referendum on the Tinubu administration, particularly its hated economic measures and probably despised appointments, with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) buoyed by the ruling party’s setbacks. The conundrum, unfortunately for the APC, is that its victories in the two states have been conveniently explained away as signifying no referendum on the Tinubu administration. Analysts often take solace in the axiom that all politics is local. This may sound trite, but it adequately explains the two recent governorship elections as far as the APC is concerned.

In the Edo poll, the APC was largely united and focused on returning to office, while the PDP was disunited, with the former governor, Godwin Obaseki, calling everybody’s bluff. The APC put the matter beyond contention by winning 11 local government areas and 291,667 votes to PDP’s seven LGs and 247,274 votes, a significant 44,000 plus margin. In Ondo, the APC victory was even more emphatic, with its candidate, the untested and sometimes flighty Lucky Aiyedatiwa, winning all 18 local governments and over 360,000 votes to the PDP’s 117,845 votes. Taking together with the November 2023 reelection of APC’s Hope Uzodinma in Imo State and APC’s Usman Ododo election in Kogi State also in November 2023, President Tinubu can boast four trophies that came seemingly against the run of play. Had those victories come with the run of play, with a great and revving economy, no one would have doubted the unassailable position of the president going into the 2027 poll. It would, however, make the administration complacent, for officials love burying their heads in the cloud rather than having them singed in the cauldron of public anger and criticism. President Tinubu’s men should, therefore, probably count themselves lucky that the administration and the public are unable to attribute the recent electoral triumphs to anything spectacular done by the administration.

Indeed, if elections were held today, given the state of the economy (petrol price, exchange rate and inflation), the supposed skewness of the president’s appointments in favour of the Yoruba, particularly Lagosians, and the awkward reversals of certain policies and close staff appointments, the president and his APC would be hard put to eke out even a slim victory. If in addition the opposition could get their act together and rally behind a great candidate, defeating the APC would be almost certain. Fortunately for the ruling party, few voters are likely to make up their minds how to vote in 2027 until probably late next year or sometime in 2026. President Tinubu has of course not inspired too many people by his style of administration, but he has sensibly pushed the country through its worst moments early in his government in order to give himself some breathing space in the years ahead, especially close to the polls. If he is fortunate enough to have an economy well on the path of recovery in 2025, with exchange rate, fuel price, and inflation rate doing great, he will sound more plausible and convincing in pushing the APC agenda.

The relentlessly rhetorical National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, last week pontificated on President Tinubu’s invincibility. He of course exaggerated, and indeed sounded ingratiating. But while the president is good at keeping many balls in the air, two major factors will determine the shape of 2027. One is the shape of the economy in the next 18 months and how smartly the president cleans up his controversial and mystifying appointments, and two is the shape of the political opposition, taken holistically. Should the opposition remain fragmented and bad-tempered in the next 18 months as it is today, it would head nowhere, whether with the superficial Peter Obi as a point man or the bilious Atiku Abubakar as the leprous fist. The two factors stated above were at play in the Edo and Ondo polls; they will greatly influence the course and outcomes of politics and elections in the years ahead. Even if the economy does not recover as significantly as many Nigerians hope, President Tinubu and his APC will probably still do much better than expected should the opposition remain divided and mediocre. But two years is still a long time off, enough time to dig heels in, make amends, or build new platforms and coalitions.