The stage is set for the governorship election in Ondo State. Although 17 political parties are fielding candidates, only the candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are strong contenders. Who wins between Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and former Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi? Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the issues that will shape the poll.
Election is always a tough battle in Ondo State since the pre-independence era. The voting pattern is usually discernible. The outcome, in most instances, is always predictable. The people of Ondo have always determined the direction, with external forces playing negligible roles and making marginal impacts. Rigging is difficult, unless there is a deliberate attempt to set the state on fire.
No matter the support coming for candidates from outside the state, governorship candidates have learned to work hard through statewide consultations and mobilisation, leaning on financial muscles as an added advantage.
Three factors are non-negotiable: the first is the formidable structure of the candidate; his political party, which should be united and cohesive, and the perception of the generality of the people about the platform.
The second is the personality of the candidate; his popularity and tentacles at the grassroots, and the strategy of making the vast majority to take ownership of the governorship project.
The third is the fortification of the support base across the 18 local government, with key leaders of the communities, including political gladiators and elected and appointed public officers, micro-mobilising their supporters, party members, and other residents for the candidate, election being a collective exercise. More importantly, tbis factor is important because all elections are local.
In the Sunshine state, other factors, particularly the power of incumbency, and depending on the circumstances surrounding the emergence of candidates, are debatable. For example, while zoning was a strong isssue during the primaries, it has fizzled out. Power is shifting to the South Senatorial District, where the APC and PDP come from. To that extent, zoning is a leveller.
From the onset, Ondo has always been a two-party sub-national unit. In the First Republic, it was a battleground for Action Group (AG) and the Nigeria National Democratic Party (NNDP), although AG usually triumphed. During the later part of the Second Republic, the competition between the Unity Party of Nigeria and the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was stiff. In this dispensation, PDP and the progressive platforms – AD, LP, ACN, and APC – have been alternating. Other smaller parties are merely warming the register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chaired by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu.
Aiyedatiwa:
Aiyedatiwa, who was born on Jan. 12, 1965, hails from Obe-Nla, inIlaje Local Government Area.In 1986, he obtained a Nigeria Certificate in Education (NCE) in Economics and Government from Lagos State College of Education (now Adeniran Ogunsanya University of Education), Ijanikin, Lagos. Ayedatiwa later attended the University of Ibadan for an Advanced Diploma in Business Administration in 2001. He is an alumnus of Lagos Business School – Pan Atlantic University, Lekki, Lagos, where he obtained Post Graduate Certification in Chief Executive Education (CEP) in Business Management in 2009. In 2013, he obtained a Master’s Degree in Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Liverpool, United Kingdom. Mr Aiyedatiwa served as the federal commissioner who represented Ondo State on the Board of the Niger Delta Development Commission from 2018 to 2019. He was picked as Rotimi Akeredolu’s running mate in 2020.
Aiyedatiwa became acting governor on December 13, last year after Akeredolu succumbed to end-stage leukaemia. Following his death, Akeredolu on December 27 last year, Mr Aiyedatiwa was sworn in as governor of Ondo State.
Ajayi:
Ajayi hails from Kiribo Town of the Western Apoi tribe in the Ese Odo Local Government. He attended Community High School in Kiribo Town and later moved to Methodist High School in Okitipupa council. He studied Law at Igbinedion University, Okada, in Edo State. He graduated with a Bachelor of Law (LL.B) in the 2nd Class Upper Division and was subsequently called to the bar in 2010 after graduating from Nigerian Law School in Abuja.
Ajayi started his political career under the Social Democratic Party (SDP) platform and became the chairman of the SDP in Old Opoi Ward 1 from 1988 to 1998. He also served as a member of the House of Representatives and represented Ilaje/Ese Odo federal constituency the PDP. During his time in the House, Ajayi was chairman of the House Committee on NDDC from 2007 to 2010.
15 smaller parties and their candidates
Apart from Aiyedatiwa/ Olayide Adelami and Ajayi/Samuel Ogunmusi tickets, other candidates and their running mates are: Accord Party (AP): Ajibola Falaiye/Samuel lkuyajolu; Action Alliance (AA): Omolere Akinuli/ Oluwatosin Adeyemi; African Action Congress (AAC): Oluwaseyi Ajayi/Abiodun Lijofi; All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Olatunji Popoola/ Ayorinde Adedeji, and Allied Peoples Movement (APM): lsaac Ogunfeyimi/ Arowolo Afolabi.
Others are: Action Peoples Party, (APP): Babatunde Fadoju/Olarewaju Ajagunna; African Democratic Congress (ADC): Adeyemi Nejo/Rasheed Ibrahim; Labour Party (LP): Sola Ebiseni/Dayo Awud; New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP): Gbega Edema/Rotimi Adeyemi; and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP): Babatunde Alli/Olusegun Famesa.
The implication of the lengthy list is that the mushroom parties may also attract fractional votes in some local governments, wards and units, if some of their candidates do not step down on the eve of the election. If they insist on going to the race as a right, they will pale into spectators on poll day.
The weaknesses of the 15 parties notwithstanding, their candidates are very successful people in their professions before throwing their hats in the ring. For example, Ebiseni is a grassroots politician, a lawyer and activist from his university days. He has served as council chairman and commissioner. He is a veteran governorship contender.
Sixty four year-old Falaiye Ajibola studied at Ekiti State University, obtaining his Bachelor’s degree. Mr Ajibola is a grassroots politician.
Omolere of AA is the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Lery Hago, a luxury travel concierge service focused on creating bespoke travel experiences. His entrepreneurial journey has also co-founded various ventures across different sectors, including beauty, fashion, and product packaging. He chose Adeyemi Oluwatoyin as his running mate
Adekunle of AAC is a poet, activist, thespian and conversationalist on the platform of the African Action Congress (AAC). Ajayi is known for actively participating in protests against government policies, particularly those he views as detrimental to the common man.
Nejo Adeyemi of ADC is a legal practitioner and a prince of Mahin Kingdom in Ilaje Local Government.
Akinnodi Ayodeji of ADP, popularly called Ejanla, is a prominent businessman, who hasa degree in Computer Engineering.
Popoola is popular in his party — APGA.
Edema, 66, is from Ogogoro, Ilaje council. He was an aspirant in APC before defecting to NNPP. He is a lawyer, former state lawmaker and ex-chairman of the Ondo State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC).
Alli of PRP hails from Okitipupa Local Government Area and is the party’s National Secretary. He holds a degree in Sociology from the University of Lagos.
APC: reaping benefits of defections and cohesion
Eyes are on Aiyedatiwa as he warms up for his first litmus test, in which his pairing with the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu as running mate four years ago now serves as a veritable background experience. His boss, Akeredolu had tipped him as his successor before he took ill. Therefore, many believe that despite the mini crisis of transition, the governor would draw from Akeredolu’s goodwill during the poll.
Other zones may be inclined to voting for Aiyedatiwa, who can only spend one term more in office, having been previously sworn in as governor in December last year when Akeredolu passed on. The feeling is that rotation may be delayed, if Ajayi, who is constitutionally entitled to two terms, wins. However, if Aiyedatiwa wins, it may not also suppress the silent agitation in the South District that another four years should be conceded to it to make it to eight years.
Ajayi has experience, having won elections as council chairman, federal legislator and deputy governor. He opposed the PDP four years ago, when Jegede picked Ola Mafo as running mate instead of him. He was a governorship aspirant who robbed shoulders with the legal luminary. His bid to retain his seat as deputy governor when he retraced his steps to PDP collapsed like a pack of cards. Many PDP chieftains in Akure still nurse grudges against him for not supporting Jegede in 2020, but preferring to split the PDP votes by contesting on the platform of ZLP.
To observers, the strength of the two parties is a major factor in Saturday’s race. Today, there appears to be a huge gap between the ruling APC and the struggling PDP in terms of strength, formidability, confidence and prospects. Therefore, if Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi are put on the weighing scale, what is discernible?
Morning shows the day. APC has been receiving defectors from opposition parties. But those defectors from PDP is worrisome to the main opposition party. The latest defector to APC is Mrs Susan Alabi, deputy governorship candidate of SDP. Aiyedatiwa, who welcomex her at a rally in Okeagbe Akoko urged leaders to give the defectors a sense of belonging.
Ondo APC Publicity Secretary, Alex Kalejaye, who spoke on the defections, said: “The chance of our party is bright. APC is the only party in Ondo State as of today. The few people who were making things difficult in the party have defected to APC. Eminent people like Joseph Akinlaja, formerly of the House of Representatives, have come to APC. Kolade Akinjo, a two-term member of the House of Representatives, has come to APC. Lad Ojomo, formerly of the House of Representatives, is in APC.
“The former Speaker of the House of Assembly, Jumoke Akindele, is now in APC. Former opposition spokesmen Eni Akinsola and Banji Olumide are in APC. The depletion has boosted our confidence. Our party is united. We are working. We will be victorious. “
Also, the defection of loyalists of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko to the APC in August is also expected to boost Aiyedatiwa’s victory, although Mimiko’s younger brother is ZLP candidate.
So far, the only notable defector to PDP is the former Commissioner in the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Dr. Benson Enikuomehin, a lawyer, who was received into the fold at a rally in Ore by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde. and over 200 others into its fold.
Unlike in the past, PDP chieftain and Abuja minister Nyesom Wike is not mobilising for the PDP candidate. It is the fallout of the crisis that had engulfed the party since the 2023 electionering.
When he assumed the reins, Aiyedatiwa was strengthened by his new status to bid and win the APC governorship ticket. But, after the primary, he acknowledged his limitations. Since a tree cannot make a forest, he embarked on reconciliation. It worked. Major contenders, particularly Chief Olusola Oke, Isaacs Kekemeke, Mrs. Oladunni Odu, and Wale Akinterinwa, are mobilising for the governor.
The choice of running mate was also strategic. Adelami, a retired federal civil servant, is from Owo,home town of the deceased governor.
PDP on edge:
The glorious days of PDP in Ondo were between 2003 and 2007, when Olusegun Agagu was governor, and between 2016 and 2020 when Mimiko was in power. Even, in 1999, when Agagu ran against Adebayo, the party showed some promises as the party of the future. According to INEC, AD had 51 per cent while PDP had 49 per cent of the total votes.
After gaining political control in 2003, the party was hit by crisis. A faction,led by Mimiko, rebelled against Agagu. The camp sought refuge in LP, contested against Agagu and won. In those days, when Tinubu embarked on his liberation and rescue mission in the Southwest, his support for Mimiko was unquantifiable. Having used LP and dumped it, members of the group returned to PDP and Mimiko retained power. But, Mimiko could not install a successor. After the poll, he went to ZLP. Therefore, no party leader, or group of leaders, have been able to consistently galvanised the platform
PDP, hitherto a formidable force in the state, became a limping horse, drained of energy.
PDP leading lights whose name, ,weight and influence once accounted for the fame of the party are now playing marginal or dormant roles.
The question many are asking in the state is where are they now? Agagu and Olu Agbi had passed on. Senators Gbenga Ogunniya and Bode Olajumoke are not on the slippery battle field again. They are quietly enjoying their retirement. Eyitayo Jegede is not making much noise as he did four years ago. Oke is in APC giving effective backing to Aiyedatiwa. Neither is the former minister, Adetokunbo Kayode, roaring.
Why Ajayi is perceived as a competent candidate, only few heavy weights are complementing his mobilisation efforts in the three districts. However, the PDP candidate may spring a surprise in Idanre, where the influence of his running mate is not in doubt. A young, dynamic and grasstoots operator with a deep purse, he won election into the House of Representatives, daring the old and experienced rivals. It would be see how much weight Ade Adetimehin, an engineer, can pull in the local government. The party chairman is from Idanre.
Incumbency power
Unlike the PDP, the APC has the advantage of stable and consistent leadership. Although the ruling party was engulfed in crisis before and shortly after the death of Akeredolu, it has succeeded largely in putting its house in order. Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, Aiyedatiwa’s main opponent during the primary, is aggresively mobilising for the governor’s victory . He told his teeming supporters to vote for the governor on Saturday. The national chairman of the party, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, addressed enthusiastic supporters of Ibrahim at Igbotako, his home town. Other former aspirants have also sheathed their swords and elevated the collective interest of the party over personal interests. Even, few aspirants who are still aggrieved, though quiet, are not working against the governor.
Read Also: Ondo polls: APC final rally shuts down Akure
Party sources said the solidarity in the party is in deference to President Bola Tinubu, who intervened and sued for peace in the interest of all stakeholders. Reflecting on the efficacy of reconciliation, Senator Ibrahim, told his supporters at the Igbotako rally that the fatherly role played by the President played a major role in fostering unity and harmony in Ondo APC.
Also, Southwest governors and Usman Ododo of Kogi State have stormed Ondo State to campaign for their colleague. Ododo has visited Ebira communities, urging his kinsmen to vote for Aiyedatiwa in display of solidarity. Also, Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti State has set up consultative committees in the 18 councils to mobilise Ekiti people to vote for the APC.
In Ondo,APC is in total control. It has a clear majority in the House of Assembly, House of Representatives and Senate caucuses. All the commissioners, special advisers and other aides belong to the ruling party.
Not a walkover
However, the poll may not be a walkover for APC in all local government. The PDP structures are intact; they are only weakened by the vissicititues of the times. Pockets of support exist for PDP in the North. But, the support for the party may be dwarfed by the presence of APC leaders in the zone, including Senator Ajayi Boroffice, House of Representatives member Gboyega Adefarati, Interior minister Olubunmi Ojo and Senator Jide Ipinsagba.
In Owo, Akeredolu seemed to have blocked the PDP effectively. But, some associates of Akeredolu are not totally with Aiyedatiwa, although they remain in APC. These aggrieved members include Alhaji Rimi, Jide Akeredolu, son of the former governor, and Dare Aragbaye, former Special Adviser to Akeredolu.
Traditionally, the Central District used to be the stronghold of PDP. But, sources said some loyalists of Jegede are hobnobbing with APC. Also, APC leaders in the state capital, including Ife Abegunde, a member of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), the Secretary to Government Tayo Oluwatuyi and Dr. Taiwo Fasoranti of the State Hospital Board are not sleeping on guard.
Four years ago, PDP won Akure because of Jegede, son of the soil. While PDP polled 12, 263 in Akure North and 47,629 in Akure South, APC scored 9,546 and 12,277.
In Ondo, a sub-zone of the Ondo Central, Mimiko is in charge and Aiyedatiwa, who kicked off his campaigns in the ancient town, is leaning on the former governor. In 2020, in Ondo East, APC got 6,485 votes; PDP got 4,0485. In Ondo West, APC got 15,122 and PDP scored 8,421.
The South is the projected battle ground. The two candidates are from there. Since 2020,APC has maintained a firm grip on the district. Mafo is still committed to PDP. But, the APC gladiators – Jimoh Ibrahim, Oke, Kekemeke and Femi Agagu are determined.
In last year’s senatorial election, Ajayi ran as the PDP candidate and polled about 58,000 votes to APC’s Jimoh Ibrahim’s 112,000 votes. Can he woo the zone to now vote for him on Saturday ?
Also, Aiyedatiwa once contested for the House of Representatives in his native Ilaje/ Ese – Odo and lost. But today, the stakes are high. He is governor and this is his election.
However, a defector from APC to PDP,Yusuf Abdullateef, cautioned against overconfidence, saying that it is risky for APC to underrate Ajayi. He said many people in the state are not happy because of the economic situation in the country. He said besides, farmers are unhappy that goverment took their farmlands and gave to some corporate organisations. He said the South would prefer Ajayi to Aiyedatiwa.
Kalejaye disagreed. He said: “APC will win the governorship poll in Ondo State because it has formidable structures across the 18 councils. Our target this year is to win the entire 18 local governments.”
The publicity secretary said Aiyedatiwa has impressed the people by repositioning the critical sectors of education, health and civil services through his reforms and commitment to welfare.
Kalejaye praised Aiyedatiwa for doing what the people of Ondo State expected from a good leader, stressing that he has prioritised the welfare of workers.
He said while many states were dilly-dallying on the minimum wage, Aiyedatiwa was prepared to pay N73,000.
Kalejaye added: “Our party is strong and our governor is working. We have the structures at the unit, ward, local government and state levels. We have the people. We have the population behind us. We will win.”
