Tag: ONDO

IF the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can’t find a legal, administrative or security reason to postpone next Saturday’s Ondo governorship election, the state will in a matter of days produce a successor to the underperforming Governor Olusegun Mimiko. But the road to finding that able successor has been laced with thorns and strife. First is the internecine war in the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party that was some six months ago widely tipped to produce the next governor. Not only was the party unable to manage the constellation of stars within its fold, even the ordinary and easy process of selecting a candidate out of the many aspirants in the party has proved herculean. The consequent fracture in the party unavoidably inspired two dominant factions which have so far proved irreconcilable.

On one side of the fracture stands the eventual and controversial candidate, Rotimi Akeredolu, together with a host of APC leaders operating from Abuja and directing affairs in Ondo. On the other side stand three other aspirants left in limbo by the disputed party primary, one of whom, Olusola Oke, has boldly defected to the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and is courting the other disaffected duo. Mr Oke has proved to be strong-willed and popular, and has campaigned vigorously round the clock and around Ondo towns and villages. He will hope that he can withstand the coalition being put together by Mr Akeredolu’s sponsors, a coalition that may yet widen to swallow elements from the Governor Mimiko group.

The ruling party in the state is, alas, also fractured very badly between the two main national factions of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Ali Modu Sheriff faction and the Ahmed Makarfi faction. Ondo voters know the factions and their antecedents. The Senator Makarfi faction, to which the agitated Governor Mimiko belongs, produced candidate Eyitayo Jegede, while the Senator Sheriff faction produced the uppity and defiant businessman and publisher, Jimoh Ibrahim. The two factions are in court to get a definitive pronouncement on who between them should be the rightful candidate of the PDP. The Appeal Court has virtually washed its hands off the matter by deferring to the Supreme Court to which the Senator Sheriff faction had appealed. But if Mr Jegede gets the nod a few days to the poll, Dr Mimiko may not need to go into alliance with Mr Akeredolu’s APC. Both the candidate and his backer will stand on their own and fight the electoral battle, albeit a losing battle, considering the shortness of time available for campaigning. But if Mr Ibrahim should fail to be the eventual PDP candidate, it is not clear which party between the APC and AD he will align with, for he seems a perfectly convinced loner and self-made man and politician.

What is indisputable is that Ondo is riven by factions and disagreements, and the outcome of the Saturday poll will be influenced by how the alliances shape out. The horse trading in the next few days will, therefore, be intense and brutal. It will have nothing to do with principles or ideologies. The Abuja inspired APC faction is out to prove a point, that they can create an alternative political force from which President Muhammadu Buhari or his assignees or lieges can profit from and mobilise for the 2019 polls. It does not occur to them that both national and Southwest politics are shaped by very complex and different sets of variables and political psychology, such that even if Ondo were to fall into their column, it does not offer guarantees of a predictable 2019 outcome. Indeed, conspiracy theorists suggest that the stalemate in the PDP was inspired or even plotted by the APC.

On the PDP front, Dr Mimiko aims to secure his retirement by installing, or participating in installing, a favourable government. On the surface, there is nothing illegitimate about this ambition, if only it is altruistic. That ambition is, however, anything but altruistic. Dr Mimiko, not the most principled of politicians, and not one to set store by loyalty, has by his poor performance created many ethical lacunas for himself that he wishes to protect beyond his tenure. He cannot go the combative way of Ekiti State governor, Ayo Fayose, who pokes fingers in the president’s eyes and is courting legal disaster after his tenure. And to stay benign and unruffled in the midst of federal hawks baying for blood is not an option for Dr Mimiko. His best bet, some Ondo politicians close to him suggest, is either to install Mr Jegede or join forces with the APC to install Mr Akeredolu in the hope of mitigating the legal disaster certain to dog him after handover.

But while the politicians exhibit their shenanigans, the Ondo electorate must resist being fooled a second time. They must vote smart this time. When Dr Mimiko offered himself for re-election in 2012, he fooled the voters by insisting that the election was not about his terrifyingly poor first term record, but about checkmating what he described as meddlesome Lagos, an indirect allusion to the support Bola Ahmed Tinubu gave Mr Akeredolu. Now, Dr Mimiko appears poised to align with either Mr Akeredolu or someone else should the court disfavour his candidate, Mr Jegede. In addition, and once again, Dr Mimiko and his friends are trying to frame the election as one between independent, local Ondo politicians and those backed by outsiders, especially Lagos, as if Mr Oke is not even more local than they all, or as if it is okay to canonise Mr Akeredolu’s Abuja backers and demonise Mr Oke’s Lagos/Osun backers.

But the election is about the persons and qualities of the candidates. Ondo voters should resist the attempt to distract them with red herrings. They were fooled into thinking Dr Mimiko’s battle cry of independence boded well for the state in 2012. It didn’t, and Ondo is today considerably impoverished and humiliated by the governor’s eight-year failings. Ondo should determine whether they are comfortable with the injustice and lack of character demonstrated in the APC primary, and whether they think the underperforming Dr Mimiko is the right person to tell them how to vote. If he asks them to support the APC, they should ask him why. And if by an incredible sleight of hand and occlusion of mind he asks them to vote AD, they should treat his suggestion warily.

Unless concerted efforts are made to reconcile the warring factions within its fold, the division in the local chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ondo State may be its albatross during the November 26 governorship election. Not only has the protracted litigations arising from  the parallel primaries distracted key leaders from campaigns, anxious members are confused about the way forward, reports Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU.

For the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the situation in Ondo State is dicey. The future appears bleak. And unless the trend of setback is reversed, perilous times may be around the corner. The potential losers are not the two lawyers struggling for the governorship ticket, but other stakeholders and long standing members of the distressed party.

Two years ago, the Ondo PDP was a strong platform. It prided itself as the party to beat in any critical election. Apart from controlling power in the Sunshine State, the Federal Government appeared to be a pillar of support. The opposition trembled before its formidable arsenal. But, no condition is permanent in life. Little did its leaders guess that its moment of trial was underway.

Things seem to be falling apart for ruling party ahead of poll. There is no unity. There is no consensus. There is no common agenda. The chapter, according to observers, is struggling for relevance in its hitherto stronghold. It is suffering from a self-inflicted wound. Its members are at war and working at cross purposes. As the Novermber 26 election draws near, the confidence of the party is ruptured by the stack realities of the time. The troubled chapter is polarised by acrimony, strife and rancour. The contest has paled into ego war. The protracted crisis has ravaged and nearly destabilised its national leadership in the last two years and cast its followers in the mould of sheep without shepherd. The PDP has indiscipline, neglect of due process, personalisation of power by certain leaders, greed, personality clashes and ego as some of its problems. The centre cannot hold for the party.

Battle for PDP’s soul

Two factions are battling for the soul of the chapter that appears to be ebbing away. Some analysts argue that Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s bravado now rests on an evaporating influence, built on a fragile loyalty of party chieftains. The party leader faces a major hurdle. Will the medical doctor-turned politician win the succession battle? Will the godfather hand over to his anointed candidate? Will the Ondo PDP ever remain the same?

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has given recognition to an unpopular candidate, Jimoh Ibrahim, a lawyer and businessman. The court has affirmed his candidature. But, those promoting his ambition on the platform of a depleted faction, led by Biyi Poroye, know that they are building castles in the air. Poroye’s group is a mere fraction of the faction. Put on the weighing scale, the Igbotako-born ‘trader’ enjoys a low popularity rating. He is not a giant of history in Ondo. Although he has been eyeing the Alagbaka Government House since 2003 on the platform of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), none of his rivals has perceived him as a threat or a serious contender.

Indeed, the law is an ass. The selection process that threw up Ibrahim as a flag bearer was not witnessed by the electoral commission. The organisers of the factional primary were not comfortable in any of the towns and villages. They converged on Ibadan for the strange exercise. But, they claimed that they had the shield and seal of the law. Since his triumph at the shadow poll, Ibrahim has restricted his campaigns to the South Senatorial District. But, he is reaching out to other zones through media advertisements.

One party, two candidates

Paradoxically, the candidate with a mass following in the crisis-ridden party is not recognised by the law. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), and former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, rode on Mimiko’s back to his present political status. He secured the ticket on the platform of the mainstream faction. He is not tainted by any scandal or controversy. Although he is a new breed, he has the added advantage of being a native of Akure, the capital town, which has been agitating vigorously for power shift on the platform of the ‘Akure Agenda.’ Many see him as a technocrat, bubbling with reputation and experience. Although he cannot yet be described as a master of the political game, a fact that makes his detractors to described him as a stooge of the governor.

However, the legal luminary has a major hurdle to scale. His saving grace is the court, to which he has approached with earnest prayers for justice. Yet, time is running out. The protracted litigation is a distraction. His campaigns have been put on hold, to the consternation of Mimiko and other leaders of the Ahmed Makarfi faction. Therefore, the Mimiko camp may be lagging behind in strategic mobilisation.

Leadership crisis

Had the party peeped into the future in a realistic and imaginative manner, perhaps, the current tragedy would have been averted. The ugly scenario reared its head during the recent Edo State governorship election, but the candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, triumphed over the antics of Matthew Iduoreyemkwemen, who was backed by the Ali Modu Sheriff faction. When PDP leaders failed to put their house in order by resolving its leadership squabbles at the centre, they could not know that the lingering crisis would take its toll on the state chapters.

Ondo has a worse experience. Following Mimiko’s return to the fold from the Labour Party platform, there were complaints about the unfinished business of integration and harmonisation. Some chieftains cried foul, alleging that the governor was playing a politics of exclusion. The old members saw the new comers, as it were, as threats to their ambition and control of the party machinery. When he defected to the party, Mimiko instantly became its undisputed leader. Old members who felt they were being sidelined started fuelling the embers of discord. Conflict is normal in politics. But, the platform and collective aspiration of the party for power suffer when reconciliation is not contemplated or completely ignored.

Poroye may have been underrated by Mimiko. The factional chairman had claimed that, before the governor came back to the party, a duly elected State Executive Committee of the PDP was in existence in Ondo State. He said it was wrong for the governor to shove them aside and set up a caretaker committee. In his view, the constitution of the party has no room for interim leadership. Therefore, as he put it, if a caretaker committee conducted the primary that threw up Jegede as candidate, the exercise was null and void.

Some legal experts have reflected on the Ondo PDP imbroglio. They contended that Jimoh may have decided to capitalise on the apparent violation of the due process by aligning with the Poroye-led executive. Although some chieftains of the Mimiko faction had pointed out that Jimoh emerged as candidate outside the state, Poroye explained that the PDP constitution was not against holding primary at the headquarters or capitals of each of the six geo-political zones, if the state capital is not conducive.

As the bitterness between the two factions raged, the Poroye faction, which claimed to be the authentic leadership, took the INEC and the party to court for recognising the caretaker committee and the shadow poll conducted by the disputed committee.

On June 29, the court ruled that the primary orgaised by the caretaker committee was unconstitutional. The PDP and the electoral commission did not appeal the judgment until 90 days elapsed. Then, Poroye was strengthened to apply for the enforcement of the court ruling. After 90 days, the Mimiko camp woke up from its slumber. Jegede went to the Appeal Court with a prayer that the verdict should be set aside. The court declined, saying that he could not appeal a matter in which he was not a party. The only option left to him was to file for a leave of court to appeal.

The electoral umpire decided to play safe. Although its officials were present at the primary in Akure where Jegede emerged, the commission declared that it could not disobey the order of the court. Besides, INEC said that it could not appeal the judgment because the Supreme Court prevented it from meddling in party affairs. Also, the commission said apart from recognising Jimoh as candidate, based on the court verdict, it must statutorily publish the names of candidates 30 days before the election. Instead of focusing on campaigns, the chieftains’ attention is distracted by litigations and crisis resolution.

There is anxiety in the Ondo PDP. Members are dispirited. There is no effective communication down the line. Already, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD), despite their crises, are forging ahead. There are rumours of new deals between the PDP leadership at the state level with the two opposition parties. But, some analysts have predicted that the terms of the agreement may not be honoured after elections. Some PDP chieftains loyal to Mimiko may have resigned to fate. Unless the anticipated court verdict is favourable to Jegede, members may continue to wallow in an illusion of hope.

Tough time for Mimiko

It is a tough time for Mimiko, who rode into power four years ago under the Labour platform despite opposition from the then federal power and onslaughts from five Southwest states, then under the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). He is not a baby politician. In the past, he had survived greater hurdles and as a goal-oriented politician, he is not weak in strategy. The governor has the advantage of mobilising people to fight political battles to his personal advantage. In the Second Republic, he had shown interest in politicking. However, he rose to stardom in the Third Republic when he was appointed as Commissioner for Health by former Governor Bamidele Olumilua. Since then, he had not left politics. In 1999, he was also Health Commissioner in the administration of the later Chief Adebayo Adefarati. He was among the Alliance for Democracy (AD) leaders who defected to the PDP ahead of the 2003 polls. Former Governor Olusegun Agagu made him the Secretary to Government. It was not a powerful position. But, a man of sagacity, Mimiko fought his way to Abuja, serving as Minister of Housing.  His former boss, the late Agagu, was taken aback. Iroko (strong tree), as he is fondly called, challenged Agagu to a duel. When he left the PDP for the LP, the PDP paled into a carcass.

In 2007, the coast was clear for him to assume the reins. But, his mandate was stolen. Mimiko leaned on Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and some brilliant lawyers around to retrieve the mandate from Agagu. In 2012, the gulf between him and Tinubu was obvious. The LP governor took refuge under the shadow of the PDP president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, to fight Tinubu’s ACN. He survived the electoral onslaught by Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu and Olusola Oke. The question is: who will the governor wriggle out from the current crisis?

Alliances inevitable

Indeed, new alliances may be inevitable. They are plausible. After all, there is no permanent foe in politics. Definitely, the Mimiko faction will be negotiating from a point of weakness. In the bargaining process, it will be a weak partner. Concessions to it may be not be substantial or meaningful. The interest of the party leader and governor may be considered. But, the larger interest of the members may not be accommodated.

 It will be a difficult, yet understandable decision for Mimiko to strike a deal with either Akeredolu or Oke. The candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Dr. Olu Agunloye, may also be brought into the picture of the alignment. Mimiko is close to the SDP National Chairman, Chief Olu Falae, and other Afenifere leaders in the state.

The options before the embattled governor are very challenging. Akeredolu is independent-minded. If he becomes governor, he will embark on reforms. The probe of a successor may not be compromised as it falls within the framework of what his ardent supporters describe as a rescue mission. It is wishful thinking that a person who has dared the national leader of his party before the poll could be tamed by any power bloc.

But, the APC leaders will work hard to convince the electorate that better days are really ahead. In the last one year, they have not been insulated from the anguish and pains of the malevolent economy. Unlike last year’s election when voters were rooting for change, and with President Muhammadu Buhari as the symbol, the perception has been affected by the obvious gap between expectation and reality.

Oke, a source said, had left the PDP in anger, owing to what he described as the governor’s high-handedness and politics of exclusion. He has grudges against the governor, who, in his view, compounded the tragedy of the PDP in 2007 and 2012. If Mimiko collaborates with the AD flag bearer, it will be to Oke’s advantage. Although Oke is a strong candidate, his platform is as strong as his personality.

The worse scenario is for the governor and Ibrahim to close ranks and work together. It will be a hard option. Mutual trust and confidence are absent. The alignment will be as easy as the truce between Sheriff and Makarfi.

But, hope my not be lost for the Mimiko faction, if the PDP wins the poll with Ibrahim as candidate. The party, and not the candidate, in the final analysis, is the issue. If the PDP wins and Ibrahim is declared as the governor-elect, he will have to wait for the judicial test.

According to the Supreme Court, the electorate vote for the party and not the candidate. If the court pronounces Jegede as the authentic candidate, the mandate will be restored to him, reminiscent of the Rivers State palava of 2007, when Celetine Omehia held fort for Mr. Rotimi Amaechi.

However, if Jegede can bounce back as the candidate before the election through judicial intervention, the geo-political calculus may be altered. The governorship contest will be a three-horse race. The candidates of the PDP, APC and AD will be at the central stage. Other candidates will be like spectators on poll day. Naturally, Jegede’s fanatical supporters from Akure, Ondo and environs will be liberated from apprehension. Dejection will be replaced by enthusiasm. The few days will be devoted to an unprecedented vigorous campaigns. It will create an opportunity for Mimiko to fight the most important battle of his life.

Until the appellate court rules, the waiting game contiues.

Some politicians of the northern extraction who have been involving themselves in the politics of the  South West of the country  have been warned to keep away from the region in order not to incur the wrath of the conscious segment of the self-determination groups.

This warning was handed down by the Coalition of Oodua Self-determination Groups (COSEG) in a release signed by the chairman of its Co-ordinating Council, Comrade Ifedayo Ogunlana, after a meeting of the council in Akure, Ondo State.

COSEG stated that while it has severally warned the political class from the west not to intrude into northern enclave ,it will also demand from the north not to foist a candidate on the people of Ondo State and that efforts to do such will be resisted as evidenced by the rejection of former President Jonathan’s candidate in Lagos  during the last general election.

According to the group, ”COSEG has consistently over the years rebuffed any intrusion into the South West electioneering process by external political interests, whether overtly or covertly. We moved seriously against Jonathan’s anointed candidate in Lagos in 2015 and we shall engage in such patriotic act whenever occasion demands.

“We shall do same in the forthcoming election in Ondo State by making sure that  the candidate of the Alliance for Democracy,  Chief Olushola Oke, the most popularly acceptable candidate, grassroots politician and above all,a God-fearing man wins.”

COSEG implored Ondo people and residents to support and vote for Chief Oke as the next governor of the state as he has the interest of the masses at heart and lives among them unlike the Abuja or Ibadan politicians who only relate with people during elections.