Even before the first vote was cast at the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primaries the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) was already dismissing eventual winner, General Muhammadu Buhari, as a walkover. Its spokesman boasted that President Goodluck Jonathan would trounce all the opposition party’s aspirants rolled into one.
Early in the week, all sorts of analyses made out former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to be the man most feared by the ruling party. One such article spoke of his immense wealth, intense preparation for the job and existing contacts with a remnant of his loyalists in the PDP who could work for him under the radar. At the end we were assured he would pip Buhari at the finishing line.
In their attempts to paint the former head of state as easy to beat many are quick to point at his three unsuccessful attempts at getting the top job. But they do so without putting those defeats in proper context.
For instance, it is settled that no one can become president of Nigeria unless they run on a broad-based platform with firm presence across the country. The constitution requires that to be elected you must win a majority of votes cast as well as 25% in two-thirds of the 36 states.
The two times Buhari mounted his challenge on the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) platform, the party was strong only in a handful of northern states where it had governors. Down south it was virtually non-existent.
In 2011, after he parted ways with the ANPP, he offered himself on an even more ramshackle arrangement called the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). By the time of the elections, the party didn’t control even one miserable local government area in the country. It had very little name recognition anywhere in the country and not much money.
Like before, his new party was virtually non-existent in the south. He tried to remedy this and deal with accusations that he was a Muslim fundamentalist by picking a well-known pastor, Tunde Bakare, as running mate. Whatever point he thought he would score with southern Christians was neutralised by the fact that the clergyman had no political structures to add heft to the ticket.
A last minute attempt to cobble together an alliance with other opposition groups came to nothing, and the CPC plunged ahead with its ultimately futile bid. The astonishing thing is that despite the crippling shortcomings of the platform, his candidacy still managed to attract over 12 million votes.
This time around, Buhari is running on a platform that has 14 governors and strong presence in states where it does not control government. For the first time ever, this candidate who lost thrice because he didn’t have a credible electoral route to Aso Villa, now has a realistic chance of securing a simple majority and 25% of votes cast in two-thirds of 36 states. And yet the PDP would have us believe that he would be so easy to beat!
Beneath the bluster, however, you get a sense of unease at the emergence of the old enemy. There’s no stronger evidence of this than the desperate efforts by the ruling party’s online army to discredit Buhari by reminding Nigerians of a litany ancient sins allegedly committed by the former head of state.
One accusation that has been levelled against the APC in the past is that there’s not much separating it from the PDP. The differences are becoming quite stark – starting with the two presidential candidates.
Let’s begin with ability to communicate their ideas and positions. No one can accuse Buhari or Jonathan of being orators. In fact, listening to either drone on from their usually prepared speeches is guaranteed to send you to sleep faster than swallowing a pack of sleeping pills.
But what Buhari lacks in oratory he makes up for with that X-factor which attracts fanatical following. In this sense he is akin to the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo – no great speaker himself – but whose mere appearance at a public function could work his supporters into frenzied cries of Awo!
The APC flagbearer excites his base. His followers are passionate about him: the word more commonly used to describe the connection between them is ‘fanatical.’ They will follow him for free and at the drop of a hat.
Can we say the same about Jonathan? Take away the platform and Buhari would still attract millions of voters. If you separate him from the PDP platform, how many supporters would follow the incumbent president on a journey into the unknown?
When you think of Buhari the adjectives that come to mind are firm, stern, strong and honest. Think of Jonathan and words like humble, amiable, deliberate come to mind. But you also think weak and indecisive.
This may not be a totally fair assessment of the president but it is the perception out there – one that is reinforced by quotes like the one from former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s controversial new memoirs, “My Watch”, that insinuated Patience Jonathan, Diezani Alison-Madueke, Petroleum Minister, Stella Oduah, former Aviation Minister and Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, were all ‘Presidents’ of Nigeria. Jonathan, he wrote, was the weakest of them all.
Buhari’s strongest point – one on which friends and foes largely agree – is that he is honest and that in a country where a large chunk of the elite have been besmirched by corruption, he has remained sleaze-free. The PDP recognises this as his strong suit and is challenging that image.
We are now being reminded that when the nation’s borders were shut amidst currency reforms in the mid-80s, the then military ruler’s aide-de-camp, Major Mustapha Jokolo, pulled rank to get 53 suitcases belonging to an emir into the country. The bending of the rules to allow the privileged bring in the banned baggage with unknown content remains a sore point that dogs the General’s steps.
This one incident is what critics point to when they raise doubts about Buhari’s saintliness. But to put things in perspective we should also note that the man has held several high profile offices – including supervising the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and yet has no house in Abuja or a foreign bank account. Most people accept that he’s an honest man with a modest lifestyle, that is why attempts to paint him otherwise always ring hollow.
Under his watch three convicted drug pushers were executed under the retroactive laws instituted by the military junta of the day. Of all the actions of that tough regime, this is perhaps one of the most wrongheaded and troubling. It is one which he would one day need to confront and apologise for.
But if we were to use the atrocities of former military regimes to exclude people from participating in the political process, then a large swathe of powerful figures in the land today would be disqualified – everyone from Obasanjo to Babangida, David Mark and others who participated in the annulment of the June 12 election results, or who rubberstamped death sentences arising from trumped-up coup plotting allegations.
The ruling party supporters may be dismissive of Buhari in the belief that as they successfully did in times past they can define him again as some sort of religious nut. Against the backdrop of a polity polluted by sectarian disputes made worse by the atrocities of Boko Haram, this old trick could be used to damage the man before the undiscerning.
True, Buhari has said in the past that he supports Sharia. But I’m yet to see a Muslim who is opposed to the legal code that is part and parcel of their religion. Indeed, knowledgeable people would tell you that it had always been in the statute books in Northern Nigeria before and after Independence. The turning point was when Sani Yerima, then Zamfara State governor, dramatised and politicised the adoption of the code by his state in 2000.
Beyond one or two ill-thought out utterances, fair-minded people should look at Buhari’s life, actions and associates and determine for themselves whether he fits the mould of an Islamic fundamentalist. Let’s not forget that this same individual led the military push to destroy Maitatsine in the 80s. This last July, he barely survived a bomb attack carried out by extremists he is supposedly sympathetic towards.
Those who dismiss the APC candidate as easy to beat should ask themselves whether over the last four years he has shed support like his opponent for the February 2015 polls. Most people who voted back for Buhari in 2011 are still likely to back him today. After seeing what he has done with power , Jonathan has lost many erstwhile supporters.
What should disturb the ruling party more is that people are becoming increasingly resistant to the old propaganda. They take the position that Buhari may not be an orator, he may not be an angel or discuss economic policy like Okonjo-Iweala, still they would risk their votes on him because they are fed up with Jonathan’s Nigeria.
