To conservative observers, All Progressives Congress’ defeat of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in last weekend’s presidential election remains a puzzle. Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, Assistant Editors Dare Odufowokan and Remi Adelowo and Sunday Oguntade report on the 10 game changers that determined the result of the keenly contested election.
To some observers, All Progressives Congress’ clear defeat of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in last weekend’s presidential election remains a big puzzle. As a relatively new political party, being barely two years old, All Progressives Congress (APC) was given little chance of defeating the PDP, which many considered more entrenched, particularly because it has been at the helm of affairs of Nigeria’s polity since 1999.
Conservative observers, who doubted the possibility of such an outright defeat on first ballot, based their predictions primarily on the fact that the candidates of the two leading parties in the election, President Goodluck Jonathan of PDP and General Muhammadu Buhari of APC respectively, were also the leading candidates in the 2011 presidential election, where Jonathan of PDP won with a wide majority. This being the case, Jonathan admirers predicted his re-election.
So, when the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega, finally announced APC’s General Muhammadu Buhari as the winner of the presidential election, Nigerians and interested observers across the world wondered what changed the political realities in favour of the retired army general and former military Head of State.
The Nation investigation shows that Buhari’s candidature and nine other factors were largely responsible for the result of the 2015 Presidential Election. They are as follows:
Buhari:
Because of his personality as the foremost apostle of discipline and anti-corruption in Nigeria since the 1980s, General Muhammadu Buhari’s candidature at this year’s presidential race attracted deep interest and trepidation amongst his admirers and critics respectively.
His person, his traits and his passion became serious campaign issues both within his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposing parties, including the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Other Nigerians also took sides, depending on what they considered the major challenges facing the country and how they perceived the person of Buhari.
His admirers for example insisted that Nigeria’s number one problem remains corruption and therefore maintains that Buhari, more than any other presidential candidate in that election, has what it takes to effectively tackle the menace. They posited that when he emerged Nigeria’s military Head of State on December 31, 1983, his government, co-anchored with his no-nonsense second-in-command, the late General Tunde Idiagbon, practically anchored their regime on the fight against indiscipline and corruption until August 27, 1985 when they were overthrown in a palace military coup.
But for his critics, especially former political and economic leaders, who some say were afraid he may throw them into jail if he emerges the president, did everything possible to stop his election. This divide on the person and personality of Buhari not only served as the tonic for presidential electoral campaigns but also determined how many voters cast their votes. In the north, where he enjoys cult-like followership, he swept the votes as never before. Also, in the other parts of the country, especially in the South-West, where he garnered majority of the votes, most of his supporters said they voted for him because they believe in his ability to tackle corruption in high places.
All Progressives Congress
Closely related to the personality of General Muhammadu Buhari is his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Registered as a political party late July 2013, the young party, which emerged through a merger of three parties, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) plus a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), took the country’s political theatre by storm.
Deescribing itself as the mega party, the party took effective advantage of its spread at birth to position itself in such a short period as a truly national party.
Its efforts were greatly helped by the crisis in the ruling party, PDP; a crisis that led to the emergence of the historic ‘New PDP.’
Besides these preliminary advantages, APC, which has now, within two years of its existence, emerged the ruling party in Nigeria, was also helped to win the 2015 presidential election by the admirable performance of most of its state governors. Starting from Lagos, where the outgoing governor, Babatunde Fashola, is generally acknowledged locally and internationally as a shining star, to almost all the other APC states, the record of the state governments under APC has been widely adjudged very successful.
This record, according to most informed observers helped to convince voters to give APC a chance at the federal level. They argued that if the APC grassroots policies, including its free education policy, are extended across the country, Nigerian poor masses would be better for it.
Attahiru Jega
In the opinion of many Nigerians and non-Nigerians, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), headed by Professor Attahiru Jega is the major hero of the successful completion of a credible process that led to the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari as the president-elect of the country after three previous failed attempts at ruling Africa’s most populous country.
Although it succumbed to pressure from the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by postponing the 2015 general elections, which were earlier scheduled for February 14, Jega’s electoral body left no one in doubt from the onset of the electoral process that it was determined to ensure a free, fair and credible election and it delivered on that vow with the conduct of the last election.
But the successes recorded by Jega and his team were not without some difficulties as many factors worked against both the commission and its Chairman, Professor Jega. And to surmount these factors, pundits and insiders insist that the commission relied on, and benefited immensely from Jega’s honesty and dogged belief in rule of law.
To say the least, Jega suffered untold hardship and humiliation for his determination to ensure that the commission remains an unbiased umpire in the highly competitive 2015 general election. To those who appreciate his stand, he came out in flying colours at the end of the day. To those who cannot understand why he was so unbending in his beliefs, he emerged as the man who made some things impossible.
But whichever way you view Jega, he is the man to praise in the long run. For those things he did and the many things he didn’t do too, he proved to be a man who knew his onions. And for knowing his onions, he came out tops in the delicate assignment given to him by his country, Nigeria.
For a man who suffered sustained media campaigns targeted at him in the build up to the 2015 general elections by several individuals and organisations based on various fears and allegations, Jega’s decision not to be swayed by sentiments, threats and attacks, helped the process a great deal.
The attacks came from all fronts and all parties. Following the successful registration of APC as a political party by INEC, Jonathan was advised to beware of Attahiru Jega as he may have been compromised in the discharge of his constitutional duty as unbiased umpire in the country’s electoral process.
Prominent northern youth leader and coordinator of the Northern Emancipation Network, NEN, Abdulazeez Suleiman, while castigating Jega back then, said given the extensive work his group has done on the nation’s politics and political process, it is afraid that INEC under Jega may not guarantee credible polls in 2015.
According to Suleiman, whose group has the Arewa Youth Development Foundation and Northern Youths Council as affiliates, the INEC boss was in a hurry to pacify the North if he must be relevant after his service to the nation. “Jega had credibility before 2011 with northerners. Many northerners were deceived into thinking that because he is the INEC chairman, the north will definitely win, especially the crowd that was going for Buhari. So, the entire North minus the elite, kicked against. The swiftness by which APC was registered took everybody by surprise,” Suleiman said.
Goodluck Lagos Grassroots Project, an amorphous pro-Jonathan campaign group, was an unrelenting force among many faceless groups that took on Jega and his team, calling not just for his removal, but his arrest as well.
The group, like many others, ran full page colour advertorials in some national dailies which read: “2015 General Elections… 26 Million Nigerians May not vote!” The advert ended with the poser: Is Jega really READY for this Election?” Jega was severally boohooed for the flimsiest of reasons.
During the struggle for and against the postponement of the election earlier scheduled for February 14th, many issues were raised. Many people spoke. Many groups agitated. And in all these, Jega was not just the target, he was the victim. But he gracefully bore it all.
One of such attacks came in form of adverts sponsored by the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation. The advertorial, which was the fallout of a press conference, read in part: “Professor Jega failed to tell Nigerians the whole truth that underpinned the postponement, thus providing the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) a questionable platform to accuse us of complicity in the decision to postpone the election.”
Even the Presidency was not left out in the pressure against INEC while the sustained attacks lasted. At one point, the presidency said it was afraid that the commission may not be able to conduct free, fair and credible elections. Jonathan’s men went for the jugular of the Professor and made several efforts to robe him in the toga of a compromised umpire.
Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, led the hordes of verbal missiles that trailed Jega at every opportunity from the presidency and Jonathan’s political camp.
Even the opposition parties, including the APC that eventually emerged victorious in the election, on some occasions, accused Jega and his men of several atrocities. On one occasion, the APC said it is afraid that INEC may have been compromised following rumours about an imminent postponement of the earlier scheduled elections.
And by the time the PDP, through Godsday Orubebe, a former Minister of the Niger-Delta, challenged the sincerity of Jega over the declaration of Saturday’s presidential election, alleging that Jega was partisan in conducting the presidential polls, nobody was left in doubt that Jega has become the cannon fodder of the 2015 general election.
Shouting on top of his voice, Orubebe, alleged that Jega, had taken sides with the All Progressives Congress. According to him, Jega had been attending to issues pertaining to the opposition APC while ignoring that of the PDP. He noted that he sent a message to Jega twice but was ignored by the INEC chief.
However, it is not because he was castigated, threatened or attacked that Jega became a hero, it is actually because he endured it all in a bid to ensure that the process was not aborted.
Yemi Osinbajo
The emergence of Professor Yemi Osinbajo as the vice presidential candidate to the All Progressives Congress (APC) not only threatened earlier permutations in some quarters but also forced major stakeholders in the 2015 presidential contest to re-examine the standing of their parties and candidates in the epic race.
With the emergence of the Southwest as the most sought after ‘bride’ by the nation’s political gladiators, not a few persons were eager to know who the then rampaging opposition APC would throw into the ring as Buhari’s running mate. And when the mantle fell on Osinbajo, the news was initially received with mixed feelings.
While those who knew him well went into a jubilant celebration of APC’s tactical decision to field a man they felt would bring immense value to its ticket, those who didn’t know him struggled to find out about him. But within a matter of days, the acceptance of his nomination as a value adding move became widespread among both APC supporters and opponents alike.
Before his emergence, heavy weights like Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo State, former governor of Ekiti State, Dr. Kayode Fayemi , Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State and even the national leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, have been considered and toyed with as possible candidates.
Though not known for any wizardry in politics prior to his surprise pick as running mate to the well-known retired General, many pundits back then vowed that the respected lawyer cum Pastor brought a lot of goodwill and value to bear on the APC ticket.
This position was premised largely on a number of reasons. One of such is his being a frontline pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG). Given the heavy religious biases that were brought to bear on the entire presidential campaign, Osinbajo’s RCCG link turned out to be of tremendous help in endearing the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket.
Given his background in the church that has an estimated membership population of over five million members in Nigeria alone, Osinbajo’s choice turned out as a deft political calculation that nailed the religious card being played by the PDP. Also, northern Christians and others who saw Buhari as a religious extremist, lowered their guards when they heard of Osinbajo’s candidacy on the ticket.
Secondly, Osinbajo’s records as a successful legal practitioner and his performance while in office as the Commissioner for Justice and Attorney General in Lagos State, aided his political profile. Many easily recalled Osinbajo’s fiery defense of the 57 Local Council Development Areas (LCDA) during the face-off between the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu-led administration and the federal government.
Many University alumni and scholars went with the APC candidates on the strength of Osinbajo being well-known in the academic circles where he was formerly Head of Department of Public Law at the University of Lagos. Not a few academia voted APC because they see Osinbajo as a highly respected University don.
Also, his being a son- in-law of the highly revered late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who is widely loved within and beyond the Southwest geo-political zone of the country, contributed to the quick rate at which he became accepted by party members and the electorate alike in many states of the country.
Pundits say by picking Osinbajo, the APC watered down the influence the endorsement of the PDP candidate by Afenifere, the pan Yoruba socio-political organisation, had on the voters in the southwest. With the Vice Presidential choice, the opposition party took great advantage of the political dynasty of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo to tackle Afenifere’s endorsement.
Although the Presidency’s vigorously wooed the Awolowo family as usual with the help of former Governor Gbenga Daniel, and even made the grandson of the late sage, Mr. Segun Awolowo, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC), unlike in the 2011 election, Osinbajo’s membership of that family worked against any endorsement for President Goodluck Jonathan.
Eminent Nigerians, like the Lagos State Commissioner for Environment, Tunji Bello, who had the opportunity of relating closely with Osinbajo, said he inspired to do more than the ordinary on many occasions.
The APC campaigned that Osinbajo’s place on the ticket will help deepen the rule of law, uphold human rights of Nigerians, fiscal federalism and constitutionalism in the country.
Many Nigerians believed Bello and the APC and this played out in the victory of the party in the March 28, 2015 presidential election. To many who voted for Buhari/Osinbajo, the presence of the legal icon on the ticket was a major factor that helped them in deciding what to do.
Olusegun Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has undoubtedly established himself as a factor to always reckon with in Nigeria’s muddy waters of politics. Although a number of analysts may differ, preferring to say the retired Army General and former Head of State currently lack any electoral value at home and abroad, some major political events since his return to the political scene in 1999, may not agree with such analysts.
While it is correct to say Obasanjo started falling out with the leadership of his erstwhile party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) almost the very moment he left office, it is also on record that on several occasions, his influence and clout, local and international, had helped the party to weather some stormy periods.
It is also correct to say the former President had scolded the party and its governments on occasions before President Goodluck Jonathan’s brushed with him, but never on any of those occasions had he been as critical of the party and its administration as he was of Jonathan’s government and the PDP of his era.
But while it may be correct to say Obasanjo’s criticism of the President contributed to his defeat last week, his dramatic exit from the ruling party ahead of the 2015 presidential election and the widespread publicity given to it, according to pundits, nailed Jonathan’s re-election bid in many quarters across the country.
“It was not about whether Obasanjo can win elections or not. It was actually more about who he is. A former President who ruled the country for eight years on the platform of the same party; A former BoT chairman of the same party and a highly respected international elder statesman, dramatizing his rejection of the President and his party in such manner really did a lot of damage to the image of both the party and the government at home and abroad,” Taiwo Odumbo, convener of the Democratic Platform (DP), he said.
In what many described as a frightening end to the sore relationship between him and Jonathan, which has deteriorated over the years, the ex-president publicly tore his PDP membership card and declared that he no longer has anything to do with the ruling party.
He did this in the presence of leaders of the PDP from the ward around his former residence in Ita Eko where he registered at his hilltop presidential residence in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. The PDP chieftains had gone on a visit to express their concern with the former president’s recent utterances against the government of President Goodluck Jonathan.
But rather than placate them, Obasanjo complaining bitterly over what he said were the President’s roles in the postponement of the general elections from February to March and April, announced his exit from the party and endorsed General Buhari’s presidential ambition.
Not even PDP’s precipitous apology coming after Obasanjo reportedly had a closed door meeting with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, national leader of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), could sway the former President away from his resolve to nip Jonathan’s re-election dream in the bud. And he did this in a really dramatic manner.
“Though very few people would imagine a political rapport between Obasanjo and Asiwaju, only a few will argue against the fact that such rapport, should it happen, will carry a lot of weight. And that was exactly what happened, especially in the southwest geo political zone.
Obasanjo’s support for Tinubu’s party helped the APC to erase whatever sympathy Jonathan was expecting amongst the Yorubas. And to say a certain Kashamu Buruji, one of the cronies of Mr. President had taken over the party machinery in Ogun State with pervasive influence across Southwest PDP. So, for Obasanjo, it was more or less a personal war. His exit from the PDP badly affected its image among the people of Yorubaland,” Odumbo said.
The deft political move by Obasanjo to show the world his disapproval of Jonathan started with his open letter passing off the President as an incompetent leader and desperate politician who has failed to honour a supposed gentleman pact to step aside for a northern President by 2015. Jonathan’s unmeasured reprisal only helped the spread of the message Obasanjo intended to pass across.
Although he curried verbal attacks from many quarters for openly attacking the President and publicly disgracing the ruling party, with the likes of Femi Fani Kayode and Doyin Okupe taking him to the cleaners at the slightest provocation, Obasanjo stood firm and continued his demystification of Jonathan ahead of the presidential election.
The ‘New PDP’
It was a script that was well planned and clinically executed. The drama, which took place on August 30 at the famous Eagle Square in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), could arguably pass as the final bombshell that demolished the political behemoth known as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
From that day till when the party lost the presidential election for the first time since 1999, it has been woes upon woes for the PDP, which some of its leaders had boasted would dominate the political landscape for 60 years.
And back to the drama at the Eagle Square. The event was a mini convention to fill some positions in the party’s National Working Committee (NWC). It also coincided with the 15th anniversary of its creation.
In attendance was the cream de la cream of the party, including President Goodluck Jonathan; his vice, Mohammed Namadi Sambo; the then National Chairman, Alhaji Bamaga Tukur, governors, ministers amongst others.
The Chairman of the convention’s Electoral Committee, Chief Ken Nnamani, had stirred the hornet nest when he announced the names of candidates for election at the convention referred to as ‘Unity List,’ which excluded most of the names of allies of some Northern governors and that of Dr. Sam Sam Jaja from Rivers State who was to contest for the office of the Deputy National Chairman.
Jaja was the nominee of Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who had weeks earlier been expelled from the party for his alleged “anti-party activities.”
What followed thereafter was shocking and unexpected. One after the other, seven governors, Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) staged a walkout from the arena.
Other dignitaries, including Senators Bukola Saraki and Abdullahi Adamu, to mention but a few also joined the governors in the walk-out.
As the convention went on, the aggrieved PDP chieftains also converged at the Shehu Yar’ Adua Conference Centre, a short distance from the Eagle Square to address a news conference.
They were joined by other chieftains including former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, Governor Amaechi, former National Secretary of PDP, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and several others.
Within minutes, the long planned plot finally came to the fore. A new faction, called the New PDP, was born.
Former acting National Chairman of PDP, Kawu Baraje, was named the National Chairman of the ‘New PDP’, former PDP Deputy National Chairman Sam Jaja became the Deputy National Chairman, while Oyinlola emerged as National Secretary.
In his address, Baraje said the New PDP members were “worried by the increasing repression, restriction of freedom of association, arbitrary suspension of members and other such violations of democratic principles by a faction of our party led by Alhaji Bamanga Tukur.”
He continued, “While we have done everything humanly possible to bring to the attention of critical stakeholders within the party the dangers inherent in the course being charted by that leadership, it has become very clear that the desperate permutations towards 2015 general elections have blinded certain people from the consequences of their actions.”
Baraje identified violations of the PDP constitution committed by the Tukur-led leadership to include change of the date for the special convention from July 20 to August 31 without reverting to the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party, “the only authority vested with such powers, recognition of delegates to the convention from nine states whose congresses the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had rejected and jettisoning of the party’s constitutional requirement for the holding of at least one NEC meeting in a quarter.
The suspension of Wamakko, Amaechi’s suspension and dissolution of the Adamawa State chapter of PDP were also listed by Baraje as part of their grievances.
In his brief speech, Atiku explained the motive behind the formation of the new PDP. He said, “The party we conceived in 1998 to be a rallying point for all Nigerians, to be a source of unity, to be a party that will fulfill the aspirations of Nigerians, has today be dragged down by people who don’t even understand what party politics is all about.”
He said he had on several occasions drawn the attention of the leaders of the party and the government to the “wrong direction” the country was going on their watch, adding that such counsels had fallen on deaf ears.
The reaction of the Presidency and the national leadership of the mainstream PDP to the formation of New PDP was at best knee jerk.
Tukur was, in fact, dismissive of the relevance of the nPDP. He said, “The PDP does not recognise any parallel party. Those who staged the walk out, organised kangaroo meeting are all self-seeking and treacherous individuals pursuing neither regional nor religious agenda except their own personal interest.
“Their attempt to create a parallel party is illegal, unlawful as there are no crisis within the PDP whatsoever. They were all active participants in the setting up of this convention. And many of them were with the President and rode with him to the convention venue and joined them in the salutation of all the delegates, including their state delegates. The PDP is studying the situation as it unfolds and will deal decisively as the situation warrants.
“It is obvious that they are creating crisis where there is none to give the impression that the party is divided. This, in their thinking, will allow them persuade loyal members of the National Assembly to cross carpet with them. We will resist this.”
The succession of events thereafter was as rapid as it was dizzying.
The main opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC) quickly capitalised on the division in the PDP for the sole objective of expanding its scope in the polity. Its leaders embarked on an aggressive marketing of the party to the aggrieved members of new PDP.
After weeks of negotiation, the new PDP merged with the APC with the exception of its members like Governors Lamido and Aliyu who opted to return to the mainstream faction.
It was a political masterstroke that catapulted APC into a formidable opposition party and in addition altered the nation’s political equation. And as days, weeks and months passed by, APC became the nemesis of the PDP, with the ruling party showing signs of its vulnerability until its final unraveling on March 28.
Bola Tinubu
Event: Bola Ahmed Colloquium in celebration of the 63rd birthday of the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Venue: Eko Hotel and Suites on Victoria Island, Lagos.
On the podium to read a profile of the celebrant and introduce him onto the stage was the Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi.
The governor’s description of Tinubu was very apt. He said, “It’s rare to find people or politicians who are tactical and strategic. Asiwaju (Tinubu) is both a tactician and a strategist.”
The applause that followed the governor’s comment from the distinguished audience which included Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, then the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and now President-elect, governors and notable politicians, was spontaneous.
Indeed, the story of the victory of the APC in last week’s presidential elections would not be complete without a prominent mention of the role played by Asiwaju Tinubu.
From being the National Leader of the opposition party to the Leader of the party that would form the next government at the centre from May 29, the frontline politician has engraved his name in gold in the political history of the largest black nation in the world.
That Tinubu is loved and hated in equal measure by his admirers and critics alike is not in dispute. But ignoring him is completely out of the question.
Tinubu’s trajectory in politics from the late 80’s till today has been eventful with its attendant success stories and physical and emotional bruises to show for it.
His first taste of elective office was in 1991 following his election into the Senate. Of most significance, however, is scoring the highest number of votes in the senatorial election in the entire country.
But it was not until the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999 that Tinubu’s political profile assumed a larger than life status.
Elected as Lagos State governor in 1999 on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), his re-election in 2003 in spite of formidable obstacles erected on his path by powerful forces within and outside his party took his profile several notches higher.
As the only AD governor who survived the PDP tsunami in the 2003 general elections, which swept away his four other colleagues in the South-West states of Ogun, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti, Tinubu’s victory became arguably the turning point in his political career.
Always looking beyond immediate gains in his political calculations and actions, Tinubu in the run up to the 2007 general elections, spearheaded the formation of a new political party, Action Congress (AC) in response to the intractable crisis that rocked the AD and had defied solutions.
From boasting just one governor in the person of Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State in 2007, the AC, which later metamorphosed into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) got three more states, Ekiti, Osun and Edo into its kitty between 2009 and 2010.
With his political leadership of the South-West firmly established, Tinubu, alongside other committed progressives, soon realised that without the control of the central government by a progressive party, the future development of the nation’s constituent states is imperiled.
After weeks and months of intense negotiations by four opposition parties, comprising of ACN, All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, the All Progressives Congress (APC) was formed about two years ago. It was one merger that survived several booby traps from forces within and without.
Tinubu’s contributions to making the merger happen remain indelible. Not a few Nigerians believe that without the former governor, the idea of the APC would have been a pipe dream.
The Presidency seemed to share in this belief. With Tinubu out of the way, it reasoned, the opposition would be in disarray. The former governor’s trial at the Code of Conduct Tribunal in 2011, many argue, was aimed at clipping his wings. It failed, as Tinubu was pronounced not guilty by Justice Danladi Yakubu Umar.
Beside his mobilisation and leadership skills, Tinubu’s uncanny gift to decipher political currents in the country with utmost accuracy and responding with the right tactics and strategy, coupled with his consistency and loyalty to the progressive cause has elevated him as arguably Nigeria’s most influential politician today.
TECHNOLOGY
It was an intense battle. The crux of the matter was the insistence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to use technology to minimise electoral banditry. Many parties and leading contestants kicked. The idea, to them, would amount to electronic voting, which amounts to a constitutional breach.
But INEC’s chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, would have none of it. The 2015 polls, he insisted, must make use of the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and Smart Card Readers (SCRs). Appearing before the senate on February 18, Jega maintained there was no going back on the use of the two devices.
Despite hues and cries, the commission stuck to its gun. The elections held with electorates exercising their civic obligation with the PVCs. Politicians and parties that mobilise reluctant voters to participation during registration were outwitted. Several millions of PVCs remained uncollected because they couldn’t be used by persons other than those with the biometric features.
With the PVCs, INEC blocked the first loophole for rigging. Buying the PVCs became unattractive and a wasteful venture for parties and candidates. Only authentic registered voters would be able to use the device. The incidence of multiple voting became impossibility. No voter could present the PVCs twice whether in his or her immediate polling unit or elsewhere in the country.
That effectively checked rigging, multiple voting and electoral manipulations generally. With that hurdle crossed, INEC also introduced the card readers for accreditation of registered voters. Initially, many of them malfunctioned during the presidential elections. Even after four readers were deployed, President Goodluck Jonathan couldn’t be accredited. The commission had to resort to manual accreditation for him and the First Lady when they returned to their polling unit.
But as the accreditation process grew into hours, many INEC officials became more familiar with the readers. The initial hitches gave way as they got the information that the seal on the device must be removed while voters must wipe their thumbs well to be recognised by the device.
The card readers and PVCs tightened the possibility of electoral manipulations. Many acclaimed riggers and electoral bandits became disillusioned and helpless. Even desperate measures, like hacking the commission’s website while voting was on-going, could not save them. INEC had beaten them at their games and the nation will have a credible electoral process.
Though not directly under the ambit of INEC, the social media also helped to protect the sanctity of the polls. Average Nigerians took to social platforms such as twitter, face book, instagram and WhatsApp to post declared results from their voting centres. They shared pictures of incidences and reported cases of malpractices that checked culprits.
That way, even the international community could follow the polls all the way. The impact of the social media was so much that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar acknowledged the upset was possible because of the “power of social media anchored by vigilant youths.” From its situational rooms, observers and INEC’s volunteers offered reports and updates that sanitized the process in an unprecedented way in the nation’s electoral history. But for the uploaded results, many figures would have been altered between the voting centres and collation points.
BOKO HARAM
Another important game changer in the last presidential election was the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East. In fact, nothing threatened the polls like the terrorist attacks. The attacks offered the Service Chiefs a rare opportunity to arm-twist INEC to postpone the polls from February 14. According to them, a major offensive against the terrorists, who had captured several towns in Yobe, Adamawa and Borno states, was to commence on the same day. The insurgents also stopped the polls from holding.
Their deadly attacks became a campaign issue with the All Progressives Congress (APC) alleging the sect festered because the PDP-led federal government lacked ideas on how to tame its fighters. The party made it a point to Nigerians that President Goodluck Jonathan was not doing enough to win the terror war.
No fewer than 20,000 have been killed by suicide bombers and fighters of the sect in the north. The killings gave Nigerians a sense of insecurity and rattled the international community. The Boko Haram fighters became more emboldened by the inability of federal troops to match them. They attacked religious centres, schools and police stations.
On several occasions, the terrorists launched daring attacks at military formation and even capital cities of the besieged states. Residents said only divine providence stopped them in their strides to Government Houses. Many federal soldiers died while much more were injured. Others deserted the military, alleging they were not well-equipped and that they lacked incentives to take on the terrorists.
On the night of 14-15 April 2014, 276 female students of Government Secondary School in Chibok were abducted by the militants. The abduction shocked the world while the brazen effrontery of the terrorists worried Nigerians. “BringBackOurGirls” became a global campaign with world leaders urging the federal troops to rescue the girls.
Almost a year after, elections held with the girls nowhere to be found despite assurances from the military and federal government. Many Nigerians lost confidence in the government’s ability to protect them.
In alarm, Nigerians watched as northerners ran from their towns and villages into Internally Displaced Camps (IDPs). Many Nigerians became refugees in Chad, Niger and Cameroon. It would appear the more attacks, the more Nigerians craved for a change in government to take on the terrorists. His supporters reminded all that the APC’s presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, is a veteran who took on the equally extremist Maitatsine sect in 1984 as a military commander. It was therefore understandable that many northerners and blood-sick Nigerians saw him as the only man who can take on the terrorists and secure the nation. The massive votes he garnered from northern states were not unconnected with this hope.
Even when the military launched the offensive, recapturing towns after towns, in unbelievable spate, Nigerians had moved on. They had given up on the government. A change must take place and they became desperate to stop at nothing to effect it. Their votes, on March 28, were mainly inspired by the inability of government to stop the Boko Haram insurgency at infancy.
Patience Jonathan
Presidential aides remain adamant she is a political asset but her critics believe the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, was largely responsible for her husband’s defeat at the poll. Though blessed with amazing skills as a mobiliser, the out-going First Lady was described as a disaster in Public Relations by her critics.
She caused not a few Nigerians embarrassment with her handling of the Chibok girls saga days after the abduction. Mrs. Jonathan summoned school authorities and political leaders in the community to a mock court in Abuja, trying frantically to prove the abduction was a ruse. Shockingly, the presidency reacted with the same sense of incredulity for weeks.
Her pronouncements and mannerisms at the mock court nauseated sensible Nigerians, though they later became national jokes. They considered her reactions classless and unbefitting of a First Lady, claiming to be mother of the nation. They were proved right when the electioneering campaigns started. Mama Peace, as she fondly calls herself, took leading roles in marketing her husband to voters.
She preoccupied herself with mobilising women through rallies and campaigns. Her rallies were colourful and dramatic. There was no dull moment with Mama Peace of Africa. In one state, she entertained supporters with the popular Asonto and Choki dance steps. But her speeches were putting her and her husband in trouble. In Kogi State, she threw tantrums at Buhari; describing him as brain-dead. To many Nigerians, that was crossing the line. But Mama Peace knew better. She added that PDP supporters should stone anyone telling them to embrace change. The nation raged in fury that the First Lady was inciting violence. The APC fumed. It reported Mrs. Jonathan to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for inciting violence.
Rather than beat a retreat and appease supporters, Mama Peace kept at it. She took on anyone she considered opposed to her husband’s ambition to seek re-election. To her, politics was a do-or-die, a war that must be won and lost. And her weapon was abuse upon abuse, since she was untouchable.
Those tantrums and abuses, according to our findings, alienated many neutral voters. They were alarmed the First Lady was hitting her husband’s opponent, instead of selling his achievements. Many die-hard PDP supporters had a rethink. They started seeing her as uncouth and unbearable. She lost their attention and support. Her husband became the victim, losing many votes through her pronouncements and negative speeches.
While many express sympathy for the out-going President, they have nothing but disdain for his wife, blaming her for being anything but an asset to her husband, politically. They point out she was the cause of the misunderstanding between Governor Rotimi Amaechi and President Jonathan. But for her, the governor, they say, would have still been in the PDP. Many governors and presidential aides, they say, have suffered from her butts and these they said, helped to ensure her husband’s defeat at the polls.
