Prominent Nigerians in trouble quickly find religion. It’s a soothing balm when they are down; a ready tool when they want to manipulate the gullible. Sometime last year, the once all-powerful former Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, found himself a regular presence in the courts, fending off corruption charges an arm long.
On one of those occasions, the now frail looking banking supremo, shorn of the power and prestige of office, turned up clutching a massive copy of the King James Bible that the Archbishop of Canterbury would have been proud of.
Just days after receiving the political equivalent of an uppercut from the Supreme Court, Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, was spouting scriptures to lift up the spirits of his deflated supporters.
He referenced Philippians 3:18-19 which says: “For many walk, of whom I have told you often, and now tell you even weeping, that they are the enemies of the cross of Christ: whose end is destruction, whose God is their belly, and whose glory is in their shame, who mind earthly things.”
He meant it as a rallying cry to his troops, encouraging them in the vain belief that there’s still a way to victory in a rapidly narrowing path through the courtroom. But sometimes Bible verses serve a dual purpose. This one also had a barb directed at foes he had repeatedly accused of only being interested in plundering the state’s finances. Surely, they were the ones “whose God was their belly.”
Last Friday in Abuja, the governor’s arch nemesis and erstwhile godfather, Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, was croakily leading a conclave of his closest allies in a session of praise and worship, fuelled by what looked suspiciously like one or two glasses of alcoholic cocktails, to celebrate a thumping legal victory over a man he had dubbed a ‘mistake.’
It was a measure of how much the triumph meant to him that the minister who often comes across as rough and tough, and hard as nails, was momentarily overwhelmed with emotion and was captured dabbing away tears. He knew he had been in the fight for his political life.
Fubara, too, knew it was all or nothing. Having been rebuffed by the lords of the highest judicial temple, his only hope now lay with the Lord which art in heaven! Hence the recourse to the Holy Book.
Read Also: CAN president to Nigerians: Let’s pray for national healing during Lent
This war of attrition could have played out in a totally different way but for the wrong choices made by the governor. President Bola Tinubu was barely six months in office when as part of his earliest fire-fighting assignments he oversaw a parley at Aso Rock between contending parties in the Rivers’ political crisis.
At the end of the talks an eight-point communiqué was issued which many felt would extinguish the flames consuming the Rivers PDP government. Key points of the pact included withdrawal of court cases by all sides, recognition of Martins Amaewhule as Speaker and the 27 lawmakers loyal to him as members of the assembly. It was also agreed that legislature would be free to do its business wherever it chose and wouldn’t be hindered in any way by the Executive.
It’s interesting that what Fubara, his supporters and advisers spurned 14 months ago, is the exact thing the Supreme Court has established as irrevocable law. What could have happened if all parties had acted with good faith at the time they were required to do so? Unfortunately, in the time elapsed the key players have crossed the Rubicon. Now, only the vanquishing of one’s foe would suffice.
The president’s intervention was hailed by many as statesmanlike given that the problem wasn’t that of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). But his good gesture would be frustrated by parties whose main concern was to see Wike’s vicelike grip over the state’s governance apparatus broken. As is to expected in any Nigerian political conflict, Fubara’s Ijaw kinsmen soon weighed in, injecting a dangerously ethnic dimension to the conflict.
The governor was told that the Tinubu deal favoured Wike. He was advised to man up and fight fire with fire. The minister had had his turn in power and should let his successor breathe. These were the sentiments that encouraged the governor to stymie the plan and embark on an experiment with an illegitimate four-man assembly – a car crash that was just waiting to happen.
With a political solution dead in the water, the only path left was the courts. But something interesting is happening in Nigeria these days. Governors with a political agenda approach state high courts secure in the knowledge that they would do their bidding. Their Abuja-based rivals do their battles through the Federal High Courts also sure that these would be favourably disposed towards them. Even when the Supreme Court – universally accepted as the final bus stop – delivers judgment, litigants don’t want to accept verdicts that go against them.
In his initial reaction, Fubara made the point that he disagreed with the judgment. The Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), proceeding from the viewpoint that the poor would suffer due to directive to withhold state allocations, demanded the Supreme Court – whose judgment is supposed to be final – reviewed itself.
Not to be outdone, the Ijaw National Congress (INC) released an incendiary statement that looked beyond the verdict. It warned against the governor’s impeachment.
The statement signed by the group’s president, Prof. Benjamin Okaba, stated: “If Governor Fubara’s tenure is truncated by the Martin Amaewhule-led Assembly or anybody else, the INC cannot guarantee the sustenance of the current peace in the Niger Delta, nor the continued rise in oil production – a veiled warning of potential disruptions in the region’s petroleum industry.”
The statement goes on to give a short history the contributions of the Ijaw people to the political development of Rivers State. In this instance, Fubara’s reversals are being painted as an assault against the interests of his ethnic group. It doesn’t matter whether his comeuppance came through the courts.
Blackmailing the central government with threats of attacks against the nation’s economic interests is par the course in this region. But the INC is a mainstream pressure group, it remains to be seen whether it would stand by this extreme position just because of a downturn in one man’s political fortunes.
The threat of impeachment hangs over Fubara today as it did fourteen months ago. It was that fear that drove the errors that have kept the crisis alive over the last one year. It was what led to the bombing of the assembly’s chambers. It was the lone factor that informed the sudden need to renovate all structures of the legislature arm – demolition of several buildings within the complex.
While these steps may have appeared very wise to the governor and his supporters, they drew widespread outrage. The Supreme Court reiterated that shock that one arm of government could visit such subversive violence against a co-equal arm in the pursuit of political ends.
Fubara first speech last Friday was measured and conciliatory. The second was emotional, laced with menace and actionable intelligence Telling the youths to ‘wait for instructions’ means exactly what? Instructions to do what exactly? Can Fubara and his legions prevail in a battle against the state?
All through the crisis the governor has exhibited questionable judgment. Going on record telling the youth you will give them signal at the right time isn’t smart. Are you encouraging them to rise up against the state? The recent history of the Niger Delta shows that youths have been used for violence. Even if it were to come to that would such destruction force the Supreme Court to reverse its judgment?
Why boast about not being afraid of impeachment when nobody asked you? This unforced revelation could be a pointer that it’s what you spent your waking and sleeping hours thinking about.
There are two main routes for resolving the logjam. One is impeachment given that the two sides have shown they can’t tolerate each other. The lawmakers just gave the governor a 48-hour ultimatum to present the budget to them. This was unnecessary, provocative and petulant.
With the Supreme Court verdict they already have Fubara where they want him. No matter how long he foot-drags, he would sooner than later have to comply. Their action can only then be interpreted as symptomatic of the state of relations between the sides. It’s also indicative that pulling the impeachment trigger is only a matter of time.
The pro-Wike forces have the numbers to force it through. If it ever happens, the heavens won’t fall. Fubara wouldn’t be the first person to be removed in such a manner despite the threats.
The other option is an uncomfortable cohabitation that enables the governor see out the remaining two years of his tenure as a lame duck. It would be a very long two years requiring him to swallow a daily or weekly dose of humble pie in dealing with a hostile assembly. For a governor who once boasted that the 27 legislators existed only because he permitted it, this could be a fate worse than death.
Nigerian governors are very powerful. But we’ve seen time and again that they can be brought to heel. Success in this high office is often a function of political skills rather than deployment of crude force and threats. Fubara can choose to play the politics he needs to survive, or go down in flames as the martyr who actually believed he would save Rivers from a godfather. Either way, this doesn’t look like it would end well for the governor.
