The latest front in the Rivers “civil war” is an Abuja Federal High Court halting federal allocations to Rivers State — till Governor Siminalayi Fubara legalizes his 2024 budget.
Now, 2024 has less than two months to expire. Yet, the Rivers governor — at least by the court’s verdict — has been spending illicit money!
That order is double thunder that grates. In the eye of emotion, it’s cruel. But in the eye of law, it is dire, but hardly wrong.
Next to treason (which overthrows the democratic order) spending public money, without legal appropriation, is No. 1 political crime in a democracy — remember?
The law is indeed very clear. You could hardly question the propriety of that order. But it could also prove very dire for Rivers.
By a BudgIT ranking on states’ dependence on federal allocations, Rivers sits on No. 24, depending on federal allocations to the tune of 60.44%. That means it needs more than N6 federal cash out of every N10 it spends.
Lagos — the state that least depends on federal allocations — does much better: at 26.55%, needing less than N3 for every N10.
Rivers does worse than hinterland Osun, with no oil wealth (60.11%); but far better than the other three oil “moguls”: Bayelsa (92.17%: this state’s internally generated revenue is near-zero!), Akwa Ibom (86.29%) and Delta (83.88%). Nigeria’s oil-rich states should really do better to grow their IGRs!
But back to the Rivers’ blight. With its level of dependence on federally shared cash, you can imagine the putative collapse awaiting it, when that order well and truly dawns. Hard, hard road for Rivers!
That’s why the pity symphony are shrill with their dolorous trumpets.
Peter Obi, with characteristic wailing, just weighed in. His sweet prism only sees victims. It’s blissfully blind to the clear appropriation crime Justice Joyce Abdulmalk fingered in her order. To Obi and wailing clan, there is neither joy nor justice from that Joyce!
“Consider the pensioner struggling to survive on a meager income alongside the health workers, school teachers, civil servants, and everyday citizens whose lives are already marked by severe hardship,” Obi rued, eye bleary with bumper tears, “How much can they endure? This latest development risks pushing them even further into distress — even into untimely deaths — by compounding the challenges they face each day.”
For good measure, “severe hardship” is a not-so-subtle dig at Abuja. Cant!
Still, the suit has a deep partisan root. The 27 Rivers Assembly members, loyal to Nyesom Wike, ex-Rivers governor but sitting FCT minister, took the case to court, though on the solid ground of the governor spending public money without proper appropriation.
“Proper” is key here: for Governor Fubara could also counter that he passed the budget through a four-man legislature — down from the five loyal to him, since Edison Ehie, the former Speaker that resisted Fubara’s rushed impeachment attempt, has since resigned to become Fubara’s chief of staff.
He could even double down on that by claiming that the 27 lawmakers, now after his scalp, had crossed over to APC, from PDP on which platform they sought and won election; and had forfeited their seats, on the basis of that sole defection.
Indeed, this twin-claim Fubara has always pushed — no crime.
Still, can a claimant come to judgment and reward himself victory? That is the major chink in Fubara’s armour. Turning a mere claim into gubernatorial power is nothing but self-help. Self-help is the diametric opposite to due process.
Worse: the optics! How does four versus 27 look, even to the most ardent of the Fubara sentimental ensemble? Forget clinical law! Indulge in frothing emotion! Shouldn’t four against 27, in a House of Assembly of 32 members, be defensive?
Outright impeachment may well be the next stage in the war, should the court order not force Governor Fubara to regularize his budget. If that push were to come to a shove, the governor would stay properly impeached, on the sole basis of spending public money without appropriation.
The evidence, naked and glowering, is out there in the public space — except he can prove that business concept of force majeure: meaning that as the 27 had defected, and government business couldn’t wait for fresh elections to replace them, he had no choice but to present his budget to the available and valid members.
That would have been the Rivers’ domesticated Doctrine of Necessity, which the Senate adopted to romp President Goodluck Jonathan into office!
Of course, both impeachment and shutting off Rivers from the federal cash spigot, would have grave political whiplashes.
Fubara could brand Wike and co “enemies of Rivers”. With the pocket hurting, that could gather quite some traction. Wike, who often prides himself as the guardian-in-chief of Rivers’ interests and wellbeing, could suffer some psychological meltdown.
Worse: the so-called “structure”, for which Wike risks everything, would have come unstuck — if not already unstuck; and the friends-turned-foes now fishing for fresh alliances for 2027.
Still, the impeachment would happen and the heavens won’t fall. Which prompts the wise to ask: is this fight-to-finish really worth the while? But others are quick to riposte: it’s the only way Rivers knows — that giant land of mighty gladiators!
Still, should the worst happen, Governor Fubara would explain why he attracted a swarm of stinging bees to his once-upon-a-time serene homestead.
Yes, Wike is domineering. Wike is aggressive. Wike is cantankerous. Wike takes no prisoners! Still, Fubara knew all that when he agreed, feigning dumbness, to be Wike’s power puppet, to maintain his “structure”. Did Fubara think turning his back on all that would end well?
Moralists could squirm all they like. But realpolitik — grim and dirty — is what it is!
Besides, wouldn’t this court order have been avoided, had Fubara stuck to the original presidential peace treaty that directed him, for the sake of peace, to re-present his budget to the Rivers Assembly — read Wike’s sworn loyalists?
Had he done that, wouldn’t he have craftily exposed the excesses of the Wike side, and thrown them on the defensive, to gain some concessions? But no!
Fubara would rather be egged on by brazen Ijaw tribalists, some of them ace conflict entrepreneurs, who saw the Wike/Fubara tiff a growth area to milk! They were not there when Wike and Fubara were striking their deal. They would not also be there when the chips are down, and Fubara stands alone and naked.
Fubara should present his budget to the majority of lawmakers, even while pursuing his suit to determine their correct status. It’s called stooping to conquer.
The Wike side too should quit their hard stance; and not play politics with passing the people’s money, in utmost good faith, for the people’s welfare.
It’s high time both sides embraced a mutual truce, to work for the people of Rivers. A win-win is better than a lose-lose that a looming showdown portends.
